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Date: May 5, 2026
To: Dan Hardgrove - City of Glendale
From: David Davis - MSW Consultants
Subject: Mid-Year Review of 2023 Solid Waste COSA (2026 Update) Background
In 2022, the City’s enterprise fund was incurring significant annual shortfalls. This was due in part to the City’s transition to a franchised system for commercial collection services. In addition, implementation of SB 1383 in 2022 increased the cost of solid waste collection services. Prior to 2022, the City had not adjusted refuse rates since 2010. As a result of those circumstances, the City’s enterprise fund was rapidly depleting its cash reserves.
In 2023, the City conducted a cost-of-service study of the enterprise fund. As a result, the City approved a five-year plan to adjust refuse collection rates. That five-year rate adjustment plan for residential rates is outlined below in Table 1. These rate adjustments are intended to over time reverse the annual shortfalls and stem the depletion of cash in the enterprise fund. As shown in Table 1, the City’s solid waste rates are scheduled to be increased by 10% effective July 1 in both 2026 and 2027.
Table 1 – Proposed Residential Rate Adjustment from 2023 Cost of Service Study Chart 1 on the following page shows that despite the significant rate increases scheduled for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the cash reserves in the enterprise fund were projected to Description Current Rate
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2023
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2024
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2025
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2026
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2027
Automated Cart Service - Single Family
Monthly Rate Standard 64 gallon cart $11.72 $11.72 $28.78 $41.73 $52.16 $57.38 $63.12 Adjustment Amount $17.06 $12.95 $10.43 $5.22 $5.74
Adjustment Percent 146% 45% 25% 10% 10%
Monthly Rate - Standard 96 gallon cart $18.34 $18.34 $32.34 $46.90 $58.63 $64.49 $70.94 Adjustment Amount $14.00 $14.56 $11.73 $5.86 $6.45
Adjustment Percent 76% 45% 25% 10% 10%
Exhibit 1
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continue to decline. Chart 1 shows that as rates continue to increase in fiscal years 2026 through 2028, cash reserves would slowly recover.
Chart 1 below shows the projected operating results and cash balance in the enterprise fund from the 2023 cost of service study. Chart 1 shows that despite the significant rate increases scheduled for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 the cash reserves in the enterprise fund were projected to continue to decline. Chart 1 shows that as rates continue to increase in fiscal years 2026 through 2028, cash reserves would slowly recover.
Chart 1 – Projected Operating Results from 2023 Cost of Service Study
Objectives
The objectives of this mid-year review are to:
Review the operating results (i.e., revenues and expenditures) for fiscal 2023, 2024, and 2025 in the enterprise fund that were projected in the 2023 cost of service study and compare them to the revenues and expenditures that were actually incurred for those fiscal years.
Update the projections of revenues and expenditures for fiscal years 2026 through 2031.
Based on the updated projection of operating results, evaluate whether, or to what extent, the 10% rate adjustments approved for July 1, 2026, and 2027 should be implemented.
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Findings
Finding #1 – For the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2025, actual operating results were significantly more favorable than the operating results that were projected in the cost- of-service study.
Table 2 on the following page shows the projected and actual operating results for the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2025 (fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025). Instead of a projected shortfall of approximately $16.6 million, the Enterprise fund incurred an actual shortfall of approximately $7.4 million; a favorable difference of approximately $9.2 million.
Table 2 shows that for the three years ended June 30, 2025, the enterprise fund was projected to incur a shortfall of approximately $16.6 million. However, the enterprise fund actually incurred a shortfall of $7.4 million, which was a more favorable result by approximately $9.2 million.
The more favorable actual operating results were due to a combination of both greater actual revenues and fewer actual expenditures than projected. Table 2 shows that for the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2025, actual total revenue in the enterprise fund exceeded the amount of total revenue projected in the cost-of-service study by approximately $2 million, or 3.6%.
Table 2 shows that for the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2025, actual total operating expenditures in the enterprise fund were less than the amount of total operating expenditures projected in the cost-of-service study by approximately $7.2 million, or 9.9%.
This favorable variance was primarily due to fewer actual expenses incurred for disposal and processing than was projected.
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Table 2 – Operating Results – Projected vs. Actual
Finding #2 – As of June 30, 2025, the cash balance in the enterprise fund was greater than the cash balance projected in the cost-of-service study.
Table 3 on the following page shows the changes in cash for the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2025. Table 3 shows that the cash balance was projected to be approximately $877,000 as of June 30, 2025. Instead, the actual cash balance as of June 30, 2025, was approximately $7.6 million; a favorable variance of approximately $6.7 million.
Projected Actual Variance Percent
Revenue
Rate Revenue 37,621 38,689 $1,068 2.8% Other Revenue 18,544 19,485 941 5.1% Total Revenue $56,165 $58,174 $2,009 3.6%
Expenses
Labor 25,881 25,701 ($180) -0.7% Vehicles 11,477 11,079 (398) -3.5% Disposal/Processing 23,061 14,581 (8,480) -36.8% Overhead 16,095 14,235 (1,860) -11.6% Projected Underexpenditures (3,727) 3,727 Total Expenses $72,787 $65,596 ($7,191) -9.9%
Surplus/(Shortfall) ($16,622) ($7,422) $9,200 -55.3%
(In 000s)
Description
Three Years Ended June 30, 2025
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Table 3 – Changes in Cash Balance – Projected vs. Actual
The favorable variance in the cash balance was primarily due to the approximate $9.2 million in favorable operating results. However, the favorable variances to the change in the cash balance were offset by approximately $3.1 million in actual capital expenditures that exceeded those projected in the cost-of-service study.
In addition, there were approximately $2.3 million in other increases to cash not related to operating results including favorable fluctuations in accounts receivable, accounts payable, and other balance sheet accounts. As a result of the combination of these variances, the actual ending cash balance in the Enterprise fund as of June 30, 2025, was approximately $6.7 million greater than the cash amount that was projected.
Alternative Rate Adjustment Scenarios
Findings 3, 4 and 5 show projected revenues, expenses and cash balances from fiscal 2026 through 2031 for three alternative rate adjustment scenarios.
Finding 3 – Implement Currently Approved Rates - 10% and 10% in 2027 and 2028. Finding 4 – Discontinue all future approved rate increases. Finding 5 – Implement Modified Rate Adjustments - 4% and 3% in 2027 and 2028.
Projected Actual Variance Percent
Beginning Cash Balance - June 30, 2022 $26,199 $24,474 ($1,725) -6.6% Surplus/(Shortfall) - 3 yrs ended June 30, 2025 ($16,622) ($7,423) $9,199 -55.3% Capital Expenditures - 3 yrs ended June 30, 2025 ($8,700) ($11,802) ($3,102) 35.7% Other Changes to Cash - 3 years ended June 30, 2025 $0 $2,311 $2,311 _________ _________ _________
Net Change to Cash ($25,322) ($16,914) $8,408
Ending Cash - June 30, 2025 $877 $7,560 $6,683 762.0%
(In 000s)
Description
As of June 30, 2025
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Finding #3 – If the City continues to implement the currently approved rate adjustments from the cost-of-service study (10% effective July 1, 2026, and 10% effective July 1, 2027), the cash balance in the Enterprise fund is projected to grow to approximately $30 million by June 2031.
Table 4 on the following page shows the updated projected operating results if the City were to continue to fully implement the currently approved rate adjustment plan of 10% in July 2026 and 2027. Table 4 shows that the surplus in the enterprise fund is projected to increase from approximately $1.8 million in fiscal 2025 to approximately $5.9 million in fiscal 2026. This is primarily due to an increase in rate revenue resulting from the 25% rate adjustment that became effective on July 1, 2025.
Table 4 also shows that the annual surplus in the enterprise fund is projected to increase to approximately $7.7 million and $9.8 million in fiscal 2027 and 2028, respectively. These increases are primarily due to the 10% rate adjustments effective July 1 in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Table 4 also shows the enterprise fund will continue to generate annual surpluses that range between $8 and $9 million from fiscal 2029 through 2031. These surpluses are projected to result in greater cash reserve balances in those years.
Table 5 further below on the on the following page shows the updated projected changes in the cash balance in the enterprise fund if the planned 10% rate adjustments are implemented. Table 5 shows that, if the City continues to implement the approved rate adjustments, the cash balance in the enterprise fund is projected to increase from approximately $7.6 million at the end of fiscal 2025 (also shown above in Table 3) to approximately $30 million by the end of fiscal 2031.
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Table 4 – Projected Operating Results (Implement Currently Approved Rates)
Table 5 – Projected Cash Balance (Implement Currently Approved Rates)
Chart 2 below compares the projected cash balances projected in the 2023 cost-of-service study with the updated projected cash balances if the City were to continue to fully implement the currently approved rate adjustment plan.
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue
Rate Revenue 7,002$ 12,938$ 18,749$ 23,328$ 25,661$ 28,227$ 28,288$ 28,356$ 28,430$ Other Revenue $5,791 $6,879 $6,815 $7,019 $7,251 $7,492 $7,742 $8,002 $8,273 Total Revenue $12,793 $19,817 $25,564 $30,347 $32,912 $35,719 $36,030 $36,358 $36,703 Expenses
Labor $8,126 $8,428 $9,147 $9,421 $9,704 $9,995 $10,295 $10,604 $10,922 Vehicles $3,598 $4,027 $3,454 $3,558 $3,665 $3,775 $3,888 $4,005 $4,125 Disposal/Processing $3,959 $5,066 $5,555 $5,722 $5,893 $6,070 $6,252 $6,440 $6,633 Overhead $4,007 $4,651 $5,578 $5,745 $5,917 $6,094 $6,277 $6,466 $6,660 Total Expenses $19,690 $22,172 $23,734 $24,446 $25,179 $25,934 $26,712 $27,515 $28,340 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $7,733 $9,785 $9,318 $8,843 $8,363 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Beginning Cash Balance $24,474 $16,968 $10,229 $7,560 $10,297 $17,065 $20,940 $24,053 $26,315 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $7,733 $9,785 $9,318 $8,843 $8,363 Capital Expenditures ($4,505) ($3,324) ($3,973) ($3,165) ($965) ($5,910) ($6,206) ($6,582) ($4,758) County Host Fee $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Changes to Cash $3,897 ($1,059) ($526) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ Net Change to Cash ($7,505) ($6,738) ($2,669) $2,736 $6,768 $3,875 $3,113 $2,261 $3,605 Ending Cash - June 30 $16,968 $10,230 $7,560 $10,296 $17,065 $20,940 $24,053 $26,314 $29,921 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
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The light green line below in Chart 2 represents the target minimum cash balance, which is equal to 25% of the solid waste division’s annual operating costs. This represents approximately three months of operating costs. This level of target minimum cash reserve is widely accepted in the industry to minimize risk and ensure smooth operations.
The dark green line in Chart 2 below represents the cash balance that was projected in the cost-of-service study (this is the same dark green line shown above in Chart 1).
The blue line below in Chart 2 represents the actual cash balance through the end of fiscal 2025 ($7.6 million), and the projected cash balance thereafter under the assumption that rates would be adjusted 10% in July of 2026 and 2027.
The annual surpluses generated by the enterprise fund starting in 2025 and thereafter are projected to result in increasing cash reserve balances. This is represented by the upward slope of the blue line in Chart 2 . Based on the currently approved rate adjustments, these annual surpluses are projected to result in a cash reserve balance of approximately $30 million at the end of fiscal 2031.
Chart 2 – Comparison of Projected Cash (Implement Currently Approved Rates)
Finding #4 – If the City discontinues all future approved rate increases (i.e., does not increase rates in July 2026 or 2027), the cash balance in the enterprise fund is projected to grow to approximately $7 million by June 2031.
Table 6 on the following page shows the updated projected operating results if the City were to discontinue adjusting rates. Similar to Table 4, Table 6 again shows that the
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surplus in the enterprise fund is projected to increase from approximately $1.8 million in fiscal 2025 to approximately $5.9 million in fiscal 2026.
However, Table 6 shows that the surplus in the enterprise fund is projected to only increase to approximately $5.4 million and $4.8 million in fiscal 2027 and 2028, respectively. These surpluses in fiscal 2027 and 2028 are less than the surplus in fiscal 2026 because costs are projected to increase due to inflation while revenues are projected to remain static due to rates not being adjusted. Table 6 also shows that the annual surpluses in the enterprise fund will continue to decrease in fiscal years 2029 through 2031.
Table 6 – Projected Operating Results (Discontinue All Future Increases)
Table 7 on the following page shows the updated projected changes in the cash balance in the enterprise fund if there are no rate increases in FY 2027 and FY 2028. Table 7 shows that, if the City discontinues all future rate increases, the cash balance in the enterprise fund is projected to increase in the near term, from approximately $7.6 million at the end of fiscal 2025, to approximately $14.7 million at the end of fiscal 2027.
However, Table 7 also shows that, after fiscal 2027, the cash balance is projected to decrease each year. Although the enterprise fund is still projected to generate modest 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue
Rate Revenue 7,002$ 12,938$ 18,749$ 23,328$ 23,328$ 23,328$ 23,328$ 23,328$ 23,328$ Other Revenue $5,791 $6,879 $6,815 $7,019 $7,221 $7,428 $7,642 $7,863 $8,089 Total Revenue $12,793 $19,817 $25,564 $30,347 $30,549 $30,756 $30,970 $31,191 $31,417 Expenses
Labor $8,126 $8,428 $9,147 $9,421 $9,704 $9,995 $10,295 $10,604 $10,922 Vehicles $3,598 $4,027 $3,454 $3,558 $3,665 $3,775 $3,888 $4,005 $4,125 Disposal/Processing $3,959 $5,066 $5,555 $5,722 $5,893 $6,070 $6,252 $6,440 $6,633 Overhead $4,007 $4,651 $5,578 $5,745 $5,917 $6,094 $6,277 $6,466 $6,660 Total Expenses $19,690 $22,172 $23,734 $24,446 $25,179 $25,934 $26,712 $27,515 $28,340 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $5,370 $4,822 $4,258 $3,676 $3,077 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
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annual surpluses from fiscal 2028 through 2031, Table 7 shows that these surpluses are projected to be offset by capital expenditures in these years. As a result, the cash balance is projected to decrease to approximately $7.1 million by the end of fiscal 2031.
Table 7 – Projected Cash Balance (Discontinue All Future Increases)
Chart 3 on the following page compares the cash balances projected in the 2023 cost-of- service study with the updated projected cash balances if the City does not raise rates in FY 2027 and FY 2028.
In contrast to Chart 2, which shows cash trending upward through 2031, Chart 3 shows cash trending downward through 2031. This is due to the modest surpluses in 2028 through 2031 being offset by capital expenditures for trucks and equipment. Chart 3 shows that if the City discontinues all future approved rate increases, the cash balance in the enterprise fund is projected to grow to approximately $7 million by June 2031.
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Beginning Cash Balance $24,474 $16,968 $10,229 $7,560 $10,297 $14,703 $13,615 $11,668 $8,763 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $5,370 $4,822 $4,258 $3,676 $3,077 Capital Expenditures ($4,505) ($3,324) ($3,973) ($3,165) ($965) ($5,910) ($6,206) ($6,582) ($4,758) County Host Fee $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Changes to Cash $3,897 ($1,059) ($526) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ Net Change to Cash ($7,505) ($6,738) ($2,669) $2,736 $4,405 ($1,088) ($1,948) ($2,906) ($1,681) Ending Cash - June 30 $16,968 $10,230 $7,560 $10,296 $14,702 $13,615 $11,668 $8,762 $7,083 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
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Chart 3 – Comparison of Projected Cash (Discontinue All Future Increases)
Finding #5 – If the City implements a modified rate adjustment plan of 4% effective July 1, 2026, and 3% effective July 1, 2027, the Enterprise fund is projected to have a cash balance of approximately $15 million by June 2031.
Table 8 on the following page shows the updated projected operating results if the City were to implement a 4% increase to rates in FY 2027, and a 3% increase in FY 2028. Table 8 shows that with these modified increases, the annual surpluses in the enterprise fund are projected to increase to approximately $6.3 million and $6.5 million in fiscal 2027 and 2028, respectively.
These surpluses in fiscal 2027 and 2028 are somewhat greater than the surplus in 2026 due to the modified rate increases. The projected annual surpluses from 2029 through 2031 decrease slightly over time, and range between $6 million and $4.9 million.
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Table 8 – Projected Operating Results (Implement Modified Rate Adjustments)
Table 9 below shows the updated projected changes in the cash balance in the enterprise fund if there is a 4% increase in FY 2027 and 3% increase in FY 2028. This increase would generate a cash balance of approximately $15 million by 2031, which is midway between the scenario that assumed both approved rate increases were implemented, and the scenario that assumed that all rate adjustments would be discontinued.
Table 9 – Projected Cash Balance (Implement Modified Rate Adjustments)
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue
Rate Revenue 7,002$ 12,938$ 18,749$ 23,328$ 24,261$ 24,995$ 25,016$ 25,039$ 25,063$ Other Revenue $5,791 $6,879 $6,815 $7,019 $7,233 $7,453 $7,680 $7,914 $8,155 Total Revenue $12,793 $19,817 $25,564 $30,347 $31,494 $32,448 $32,696 $32,953 $33,218 Expenses
Labor $8,126 $8,428 $9,147 $9,421 $9,704 $9,995 $10,295 $10,604 $10,922 Vehicles $3,598 $4,027 $3,454 $3,558 $3,665 $3,775 $3,888 $4,005 $4,125 Disposal/Processing $3,959 $5,066 $5,555 $5,722 $5,893 $6,070 $6,252 $6,440 $6,633 Overhead $4,007 $4,651 $5,578 $5,745 $5,917 $6,094 $6,277 $6,466 $6,660 Total Expenses $19,690 $22,172 $23,734 $24,446 $25,179 $25,934 $26,712 $27,515 $28,340 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $6,315 $6,514 $5,984 $5,438 $4,878 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Beginning Cash Balance $24,474 $16,968 $10,229 $7,560 $10,297 $15,648 $16,251 $16,030 $14,887 Surplus/(Shortfall) ($6,897) ($2,355) $1,830 $5,901 $6,315 $6,514 $5,984 $5,438 $4,878 Capital Expenditures ($4,505) ($3,324) ($3,973) ($3,165) ($965) ($5,910) ($6,206) ($6,582) ($4,758) County Host Fee $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Changes to Cash $3,897 ($1,059) ($526) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ Net Change to Cash ($7,505) ($6,738) ($2,669) $2,736 $5,350 $604 ($222) ($1,144) $120 Ending Cash - June 30 $16,968 $10,230 $7,560 $10,296 $15,647 $16,252 $16,030 $14,886 $15,007 (In 000s)
Projected
Description
Actual
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Chart 4 below compares the projected cash balances from the cost-of-service study with the updated projected cash balances based on the assumption that the City increases rates 4% in FY 2027 and 3% in FY 2028. In comparison to Chart 2 and Chart 3, Chart 4 shows a flatter more consistent cash balance over time.
Chart 4 – Comparison of Projected Cash (Implement Modified Rate Adjustments)
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Chart 2, Chart 3 and Chart 4 are presented below for the purpose of readily comparing projected cash balances among the three alternate scenarios.
Chart 2 - Implement Current Approved Rates
Chart 3 - Discontinue All Future Rate Increases
Chart 4 - Implement Modified Rate Adjustments
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Recommendation
Based on these findings, we recommend that the City implement the modified rate adjustments described in Finding #5 for these reasons:
The Scholl Canyon Landfill is expected to close in about five years. The impact of the Scholl Canyon closure on the City’s solid waste collection costs are still uncertain and are outside the planning horizon of this mid-year analysis. Although the modified rate adjustment scenario is projected to result in a cash balance that is above the City’s target minimum balance, we believe it would be prudent for the City to approach the impending closure of Scholl Canyon with adequate cash reserves.
The rate adjustment percentages of the modified rate adjustment scenario are more similar to the current rate of inflation than are the other scenarios.
The modified rate adjustment scenario results in a more stable cash reserve balance over time than the other scenarios.
The modified rate adjustments are shown on the following page in Table 10.
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Table 10 – Modified Rate Adjustments
Description
Actual Rate
Effective
July 1, 2025
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2026
Proposed
Rate Effective
July 1, 2027
Automated Cart Service - Single Family
Monthly Rate Standard 64 gallon cart $52.16 $54.25 $55.87 Adjustment Amount $2.09 $1.63
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Standard 96 gallon cart $58.63 $60.98 $62.80 Adjustment Amount $2.35 $1.83
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Automated Cart Service - Multi-family 2-4 unts
Monthly Rate - Standard 64 gallon cart $52.16 $54.25 $55.87 Adjustment Amount $2.09 $1.63
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Standard 96 gallon cart $58.63 $60.98 $62.80 Adjustment Amount $2.35 $1.83
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Additional 64 gallon cart $52.16 $54.25 $55.87 Adjustment Amount $2.09 $1.63
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Front Loading Bin Service - MFR 2-4 units
Monthly Rate - One cubic yard bin 1/week $158.50 $164.84 $169.79 Adjustment Amount $6.34 $4.95
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Two cubic yard bin 1/week $199.28 $207.25 $213.47 Adjustment Amount $7.97 $6.22
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Three cubic yard bin 1/week $240.05 $249.65 $257.14 Adjustment Amount $9.60 $7.49
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Front Loading Bin Service - MFR 2-4 units - Additional Pickups Monthly Rate - One cubic yard bin 1/week $158.50 $164.84 $169.79 Adjustment Amount $6.34 $4.95
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Two cubic yard bin 1/week $199.28 $207.25 $213.47 Adjustment Amount $7.97 $6.22
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%
Monthly Rate - Three cubic yard bin 1/week $240.05 $249.65 $257.14 Adjustment Amount $9.60 $7.49
Adjustment Percent 4% 3%