Evacuation Modeling
CONDUCTED BY:
~ Tim Tierney, MA (Geology)
~ Experienced with software for spatial analysis
METHOD
~ LWR (Lighthill-Whitham-Richards) model
~ Executed through Google-AI.
ANALYSIS AREA:
~ New York Ave (above Foothill Blvd)
~ All houses within 1-block
Exhibit 20: Appellant Evacuation Study
Graph Explanation
CARS ON
THE ROAD AVG SPEED
Modeling Results
CARS ON ROAD
TIME
Total Vehicles on Corride
100
o
200
이
700
600
ahicles onCorridor (No Lights) 150
100
200
250
veficles o
450
400
350
300
250
NIGHT Evacuation: 400 Cars on New York Ave
Moutes Pont-A
DARK NIGHT Evacuation: No Streetlights (400 Cars)
d/Max Cer
Vehicles on Road
DAYTIME Full Evacuation: 400 Homes + 1400 School Population 30 School & Resident
Merge Conflict
Vehicles (650 Cars + 12 Buses)
Avg Speed
10 20 30
Minutes Post-Alert
40 50 60
40 5
+10
20 -25
verage Speed (MPH)
80 -
Average Sceed (MPH)
100
CARS ON ROAD
les on Corridor (Dark/No Signal)
900
800
700
600
500
400
Total Vehicles on Corridor
1000
800
600
400
200
300
200
100
200
100
TIME 2
500
10 20 50 60 70 80
Minutes Post-Alert
DARK NIGHT TOTAL FAILURE Br gnals
Way Stop Bottleneck
MIXED-MODE EVACUATION: 790 Cars + 600 Pedestrians
30 Friction Point
20 60
Minutes Post-Alert
ongestion
(851 Cars + Pedestrians)
20 40 60 80
Minutes Post-Alert
Cars
Pedestrian Wave (600 people)
vg Speed
80 Vehicles (851 Cars)
Pedestrian Wave (600 people)
Vehicle Avg Speed
100
w
-5
10 -25
20 verage
S e Speed (MP
10 -30
verageSpeed (MPH)
Simulation #6:
~ Timing = Night
~ 400 Homes
~ 90-Unit Apartmen
"No Electrity"
Duration = 75min
Simulation #7:
Timing = Day
400 Homes
~ CMHS
~ 90-Unit Apartmen
Duration = 75min
Simulation #8:
-25
-20
15 Average
Speed (MPH
Timing = Day
~ 400 Homes
~ CMHS
~ 90-Unit Apartmen
Duration = 95min