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CITY OF GRAND TERRACE
SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS
Agenda Item: G. 13 - Sales Tax Measure Polling
City Council Meeting- June 9, 2026
The survey results are being presented solely for informational purposes to assist the City Council in evaluating potential fiscal options and determining whether additional analysis or action is warranted. The presentation of survey results does not constitute advocacy for or against any potential ballot measure and is intended to provide factual information regarding voter attitudes, priorities, and perceptions related to municipal services and potential revenue measures.
Consistent with the Brown Act and Government Code Section 54957.5, any written survey results, presentation materials, or other documents distributed to a majority of the City Council regarding this agenda item will be made available to the public at the same time they are distributed to the City Council. Such materials will also be posted on the City's website in accordance with the City's standard procedures for late-distributed agenda materials.
The additional materials associated with this agenda item are available for public review under “Notice” and may be accessed through the link provided below on the City’s agenda webpage in accordance with the City’s standard procedures for late‑distributed materials:
https://grandterraceca.portal.civicclerk.com/event/208/files/agenda/682 For questions regarding this item or the materials included in this packet, please contact the City Clerk’s Office at 909-954-5207 or via email at [email protected]
S U R V E Y R E S E A R C H R E P O R T
City of Grand Terrace
1% Local Sales Tax Measure
Voter Survey & Topline Results
n = 265
REGISTERED VOTERS
± 6.0%
MARGIN OF ERROR
95%
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · Mixed-mode (live cell & landline + text-to-web) · English & Spanish This survey was conducted June 11–15, 2026 among n = 265 registered voters in the City of Grand Terrace. The margin of error is ±6.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level; subgroup margins are larger. Interviews used a mixed-mode methodology combining live-agent calls to cell phones and landlines with text-to-web invitations completed online. The survey was offered in English and Spanish. Respondents were screened to confirm current voter registration in Grand Terrace. Results may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential
Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 1
A
Section A — Introduction & Screening
Confirming registration and turnout likelihood.
Q1 · INTRODUCTION & SCREENING
Registered Voter
To begin, are you currently registered to vote in the City of Grand Terrace? Response Percent Freq.
Yes 100.0% 265
No 0.0% 0
Not sure 0.0% 0
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q2 · INTRODUCTION & SCREENING
Voter Likelihood
How likely are you to vote in the general election this coming November 2026 — would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, are 50-50, or will probably not vote? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely will vote 83.0% 220
Probably will vote 10.0% 27
50-50 / Might vote 7.0% 18
Probably will not vote 0.0% 0
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) B
Section B — Community Climate
Direction of the City, top issues, and service ratings.
Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 2
Q3 · COMMUNITY CLIMATE
Right Direction / Wrong Track
Generally speaking, do you feel things in the City of Grand Terrace are headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?
Response Percent Freq.
Right direction 32.3% 86
Wrong track 46.8% 124
Don't know 20.8% 55
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q4 · COMMUNITY CLIMATE
Top Local Issue
What would you say is the single most important issue facing Grand Terrace today — the one thing you would most like your City leaders to address?
Note: Open-end. Recorded verbatim and back-coded to a master list; no prompting.
Response Percent Freq.
Public safety / crime 1.5% 4
Roads / infrastructure 12.0% 32
Homelessness 14.3% 38
Taxes / cost of living 14.8% 39
Development / growth 1.9% 5
City finances 36.7% 97
Parks / recreation 15.9% 42
Other 2.8% 7
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 3
Q5 · COMMUNITY CLIMATE
City Services Rating
How would you rate the overall job the City of Grand Terrace is doing in providing services to residents? Would you say excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Response Percent Freq.
Excellent 9.3% 25
Good 42.5% 112
Only fair 30.6% 81
Poor 13.0% 35
Unsure / don't know 4.7% 12
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) C
Section C — Initial Ballot Test — General vs. Special
Split-sample, rotated head-to-head of both tax structures.
Q6 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Exposure Flag — Split-Sample Order
Split-sample assignment recording the order in which each respondent heard the two ballot structures. Version A: Public Safety (special) tax first, then General Services tax. Version B: General Services tax first, then Public Safety (special) tax.
Note: Programming flag. Order randomized to remove sequence bias; the clean uninformed read for each structure is the first one each respondent hears.
Response Percent Freq.
Exposure Order A 57.2% 152
Exposure Order B 42.8% 113
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 4
Q7 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Initial Ballot Test — Special Tax (Public Safety, two-thirds) If the November 2026 ballot included the following measure, would you vote yes or no? “To fund law enforcement and public safety in Grand Terrace — including police protection, neighborhood patrols, 9-1-1 emergency response, crime prevention, and faster emergency response times — shall the City enact a one-cent (1%) sales tax, providing approximately $1.7 million annually dedicated solely to public safety, until ended by voters, with all funds staying local, a public safety spending account, and independent annual audits?” Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 38.0% 101
Probably YES — lean yes 25.5% 67
Probably NO — lean no 9.7% 26
Definitely NO — would vote no 15.5% 41
Undecided / Don't know 11.4% 30
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q8 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Initial Ballot Test — Special Tax Lean
As of today, even if you haven't made up your mind, do you lean more toward voting YES or more toward voting NO on this measure?
Note: Asked only of respondents undecided / don't know on Q7 (n=30).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 10.8% 3
Lean NO 19.8% 6
Still completely undecided 69.4% 21
Total 100% 30
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 30 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 5
Q9 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Initial Ballot Test — General Services Tax (50%+1)
Now consider a different version of the measure. If the November 2026 ballot included the following measure, would you vote yes or no? “To maintain and enhance essential City services — including police protection, neighborhood patrols, 9-1-1 emergency response, and rapid response times — shall the City of Grand Terrace enact a one-cent (1%) sales tax, providing approximately $1.7 million annually for general City use until ended by voters, with all funds staying local, public spending disclosure, and independent annual audits?” Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 30.3% 80
Probably YES — lean yes 25.7% 68
Probably NO — lean no 16.4% 43
Definitely NO — would vote no 17.8% 47
Undecided / Don't know 9.9% 26
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q11 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test A-1 — Special Tax (Public Safety) [Order A] Among respondents assigned Exposure Order A (heard the Public Safety / special tax first). If the November 2026 ballot included a one-cent (1%) sales tax dedicated solely to public safety, would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 40.1% 61
Probably YES — lean yes 22.9% 35
Probably NO — lean no 10.8% 16
Definitely NO — would vote no 14.6% 22
Undecided / Don't know 11.7% 18
Total 100% 152
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 152 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 6
Q12 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test A-2 — Special Tax Lean [Order A]
Among Order A respondents undecided on the Public Safety / special tax — as of today, do you lean more toward voting YES or more toward voting NO?
Note: Asked only of Order A respondents undecided on the special tax (n=18).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 13.1% 2
Lean NO 18.6% 3
Still completely undecided 68.3% 12
Total 100% 18
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 18 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Q13 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test A-3 — General Services Tax [Order A]
Among Order A respondents (who heard the special tax first), the alternate read. If the November 2026 ballot included a one-cent (1%) sales tax for general City services, would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 32.1% 49
Probably YES — lean yes 23.6% 36
Probably NO — lean no 16.0% 24
Definitely NO — would vote no 18.3% 28
Undecided / Don't know 10.0% 15
Total 100% 152
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 152 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Q14 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test A-4 — General Services Tax Lean [Order A]
Among Order A respondents undecided on the general services tax — as of today, do you lean more toward voting YES or more toward voting NO?
Note: Asked only of Order A respondents undecided on the general services tax (n=17).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 9.5% 2
Lean NO 13.1% 2
Still completely undecided 77.4% 13
Total 100% 17
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 17 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 7
Q15 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test B-1 — General Services Tax [Order B]
Among respondents assigned Exposure Order B (heard the General Services tax first). If the November 2026 ballot included a one-cent (1%) sales tax for general City services, would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 27.8% 32
Probably YES — lean yes 28.4% 32
Probably NO — lean no 16.9% 19
Definitely NO — would vote no 17.1% 19
Undecided / Don't know 9.8% 11
Total 100% 113
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 113 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Q16 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test B-2 — General Services Tax Lean [Order B]
Among Order B respondents undecided on the general services tax — as of today, do you lean more toward voting YES or more toward voting NO?
Note: Asked only of Order B respondents undecided on the general services tax (n=11).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 11.1% 1
Lean NO 0.0% 0
Still completely undecided 88.9% 10
Total 100% 11
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 11 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 8
Q17 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test B-3 — Special Tax (Public Safety) [Order B] Among Order B respondents (who heard the general services tax first), the alternate read. If the November 2026 ballot included a one-cent (1%) sales tax dedicated solely to public safety, would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 35.1% 40
Probably YES — lean yes 28.9% 33
Probably NO — lean no 8.3% 9
Definitely NO — would vote no 16.7% 19
Undecided / Don't know 11.0% 13
Total 100% 113
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 113 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Q18 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Battery Test B-4 — Special Tax Lean [Order B]
Among Order B respondents undecided on the special tax — as of today, do you lean more toward voting YES or more toward voting NO?
Note: Asked only of Order B respondents undecided on the special tax (n=13).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 7.4% 1
Lean NO 21.5% 3
Still completely undecided 71.0% 9
Total 100% 13
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 13 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 9
Q19 · INITIAL BALLOT TEST — GENERAL VS. SPECIAL
Preferred Measure Version
Thinking about the two versions you just heard — one that funds general City services with a focus on public safety, and one that is dedicated only to law enforcement and public safety — which would you be more likely to support?
Response Percent Freq.
The general City services version (with public safety
focus) 20.1% 53
The dedicated law-enforcement-only version 37.2% 99
Would support both equally 21.4% 57
Would support neither 14.2% 38
Don't know 7.1% 19
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) D
Section D — Service-Priority Battery
Where voters want any new City funding directed.
Q20 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Police protection
I'm going to read a list of City services and programs. For each one, please tell me how high a priority it should be for any new City funding — an extremely high priority, a high priority, a medium priority, or a low priority. [Items rotated.] — Item: Police protection and neighborhood patrols Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 46.2% 122
High priority 31.8% 84
Medium priority 11.2% 30
Low priority 9.3% 25
Don't know / Refused 1.5% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 10
Q21 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — 9-1-1
Item: 9-1-1 and emergency response times
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 51.9% 138
High priority 35.4% 94
Medium priority 8.4% 22
Low priority 2.6% 7
Don't know / Refused 1.8% 5
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q22 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Crime prevention
Item: Crime prevention and reducing property crime
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 45.7% 121
High priority 39.1% 104
Medium priority 8.5% 22
Low priority 5.1% 13
Don't know / Refused 1.7% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q23 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Fire protection
Item: Fire protection and paramedic services
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 43.8% 116
High priority 41.6% 110
Medium priority 9.9% 26
Low priority 3.3% 9
Don't know / Refused 1.3% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 11
Q24 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Repairing
Item: Repairing and maintaining local streets and roads Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 33.1% 88
High priority 37.1% 98
Medium priority 27.5% 73
Low priority 1.9% 5
Don't know / Refused 0.3% 1
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q25 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Addressing homelessness in the community Item: Addressing homelessness in the community
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 52.4% 139
High priority 23.6% 63
Medium priority 14.7% 39
Low priority 7.7% 20
Don't know / Refused 1.7% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 12
Q26 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Maintaining parks
Item: Maintaining parks, recreation, and youth programs Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 25.1% 67
High priority 36.6% 97
Medium priority 30.8% 82
Low priority 6.1% 16
Don't know / Refused 1.4% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q27 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Code enforcement
Item: Code enforcement and neighborhood cleanliness
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 17.2% 46
High priority 24.5% 65
Medium priority 42.3% 112
Low priority 14.7% 39
Don't know / Refused 1.4% 4
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q28 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Keeping the City financially stable
Item: Keeping the City financially stable and able to pay its bills Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 34.4% 91
High priority 43.4% 115
Medium priority 17.3% 46
Low priority 2.8% 7
Don't know / Refused 2.1% 6
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 13
Q29 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Service Priority — Disaster preparedness
Item: Disaster preparedness and emergency readiness
Response Percent Freq.
Extremely high priority 25.2% 67
High priority 45.5% 121
Medium priority 23.5% 62
Low priority 4.4% 12
Don't know / Refused 1.3% 3
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q30 · SERVICE-PRIORITY BATTERY
Top Funding Priority (forced choice)
And of everything on that list, which ONE should be the City's single highest priority for any new funding? Response Percent Freq.
Police protection and neighborhood patrols 34.7% 92
9-1-1 and emergency response times 6.6% 18
Crime prevention and reducing property crime 9.8% 26
Fire protection and paramedic services 6.1% 16
Repairing and maintaining local streets and roads 8.9% 24 Addressing homelessness in the community 13.8% 36
Maintaining parks, recreation, and youth programs 1.6% 4 Code enforcement and neighborhood cleanliness 2.9% 8
Keeping the City financially stable and able to pay its bills 10.1% 27
Disaster preparedness and emergency readiness 5.4% 14
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) E
Section E — Message Battery
Persuasive movement from supporting (PRO) and opposing (CON) arguments.
Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 14
Q31 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
Now I'm going to read some statements people have made about a possible local sales tax in Grand Terrace. After each one, please tell me whether that statement makes you MORE likely or LESS likely to support the measure — or whether it makes no difference. [Pro and con items rotated together.] — [PRO] Every dollar from this measure stays in Grand Terrace and cannot be taken by the State or County — it funds local needs only.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 60.5% 160
Somewhat more likely 20.4% 54
No difference 8.1% 21
Somewhat less likely 1.1% 3
Much less likely 4.9% 13
Don't know / Refused 5.0% 13
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q32 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
[PRO] This measure would protect and strengthen local police patrols and keep 9-1-1 emergency response times fast.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 49.5% 131
Somewhat more likely 21.0% 56
No difference 16.3% 43
Somewhat less likely 2.5% 7
Much less likely 6.0% 16
Don't know / Refused 4.7% 12
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 15
Q33 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
[PRO] Right now, people who shop in Grand Terrace from out of town pay nothing toward our local services. This measure asks visitors to pay their fair share too.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 39.8% 106
Somewhat more likely 19.8% 52
No difference 22.6% 60
Somewhat less likely 3.6% 10
Much less likely 8.4% 22
Don't know / Refused 5.7% 15
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q34 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
[PRO] The measure includes mandatory independent audits and public disclosure of how every dollar is spent.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 58.3% 154
Somewhat more likely 21.1% 56
No difference 11.2% 30
Somewhat less likely 0.8% 2
Much less likely 4.3% 11
Don't know / Refused 4.4% 12
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 16
Q35 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
[PRO] Without new local revenue, the City may be forced to cut public safety, road repair, and other essential services.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 24.9% 66
Somewhat more likely 25.1% 66
No difference 27.9% 74
Somewhat less likely 7.4% 20
Much less likely 9.7% 26
Don't know / Refused 5.1% 14
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q36 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (PRO)
[PRO] A one-cent sales tax costs just one penny on a dollar — and groceries and prescription medicine are not taxed.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 42.0% 111
Somewhat more likely 20.0% 53
No difference 22.9% 61
Somewhat less likely 3.7% 10
Much less likely 6.2% 16
Don't know / Refused 5.2% 14
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 17
Q37 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (CON)
[CON] Grand Terrace families are already struggling with the high cost of living, and the last thing they need is another tax.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 25.8% 68
Somewhat more likely 9.4% 25
No difference 42.8% 113
Somewhat less likely 9.4% 25
Much less likely 10.2% 27
Don't know / Refused 2.5% 7
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q38 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (CON)
[CON] Because this is a general tax, politicians can legally spend the money on anything they want — there is no guarantee it actually goes to police.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 17.6% 47
Somewhat more likely 11.7% 31
No difference 15.2% 40
Somewhat less likely 8.7% 23
Much less likely 40.0% 106
Don't know / Refused 6.7% 18
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 18
Q39 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (CON)
[CON] The City should live within its means and cut wasteful spending before asking residents to pay more.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 37.5% 99
Somewhat more likely 19.5% 52
No difference 25.6% 68
Somewhat less likely 5.7% 15
Much less likely 8.2% 22
Don't know / Refused 3.4% 9
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q40 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (CON)
[CON] Once a sales tax is passed, it almost never goes away, even after the original need is gone.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 27.3% 72
Somewhat more likely 11.6% 31
No difference 34.7% 92
Somewhat less likely 8.3% 22
Much less likely 14.9% 39
Don't know / Refused 3.1% 8
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 19
Q41 · MESSAGE BATTERY
Message Test (CON)
[CON] Higher sales taxes drive shoppers to neighboring cities and hurt local businesses.
Response Percent Freq.
Much more likely 21.5% 57
Somewhat more likely 13.6% 36
No difference 39.4% 104
Somewhat less likely 9.4% 25
Much less likely 10.7% 28
Don't know / Refused 5.5% 15
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) F
Section F — Informed Ballot Re-Test
Re-tested support after exposure to priorities and arguments.
Q42 · INFORMED BALLOT RE-TEST
Informed Re-Test — General Services Tax (50%+1)
Now that you've heard more about it, let me ask again. If the November 2026 ballot included a ONE-CENT general sales tax for general City services, with a focus on maintaining and strengthening police and public safety, all funds staying local and subject to independent audits — would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 33.5% 89
Probably YES — lean yes 26.4% 70
Probably NO — lean no 11.7% 31
Definitely NO — would vote no 19.8% 53
Undecided / Don't know 8.6% 23
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 20
Q43 · INFORMED BALLOT RE-TEST
Informed Re-Test — General Services Tax Lean
Do you lean more toward YES or more toward NO?
Note: Asked only of respondents undecided on the informed general services re-test (n=23).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 0.0% 0
Lean NO 5.2% 1
Still undecided 94.8% 22
Total 100% 23
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 23 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Q44 · INFORMED BALLOT RE-TEST
Informed Re-Test — Special Tax (two-thirds)
And if instead the measure were a ONE-CENT sales tax DEDICATED SOLELY to law enforcement and public safety — which legally requires a two-thirds vote to pass — would you vote yes or no? Response Percent Freq.
Definitely YES — would vote yes 39.0% 103
Probably YES — lean yes 26.4% 70
Probably NO — lean no 9.9% 26
Definitely NO — would vote no 15.3% 40
Undecided / Don't know 9.3% 25
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Q45 · INFORMED BALLOT RE-TEST
Informed Re-Test — Special Tax Lean
Do you lean more toward YES or more toward NO?
Note: Asked only of respondents undecided on the informed special-tax re-test (n=25).
Response Percent Freq.
Lean YES 17.2% 4
Lean NO 0.0% 0
Still undecided 82.8% 20
Total 100% 25
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · base n = 25 · subgroup margin larger than ±6.0% Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 21
Q46 · INFORMED BALLOT RE-TEST
Sales Tax — Good Idea or Bad Idea
Regardless of how you might vote, do you think a local sales tax measure in Grand Terrace is a good idea or a bad idea?
Response Percent Freq.
Good idea 38.0% 101
Bad idea 21.9% 58
Depends 35.3% 93
Don't know 4.9% 13
Total 100% 265
Field dates June 11–15, 2026 · n = 265 · MOE ±6.0% (full sample) Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax · Topline Results
Prepared by Rincon Strategies · Confidential Page 22
G
Section G — Demographics
Sample composition of survey respondents (n = 265).
Years in Grand Terrace
Less than 2 years 1.9%
2 to 5 years 8.6%
6 to 10 years 10.0%
11 to 20 years 16.1%
More than 20 years 63.5%
Own or Rent
Own 88.2%
Rent 11.8%
Child in Household
Yes 22.9%
No 77.1%
Race / Ethnicity
White 45.4%
Hispanic / Latino 44.2%
Black / African American 2.3%
Asian / Pacific Islander 1.5%
Other / Multiracial 4.1%
Prefer not to say 2.5%
Gender
Female 54.0%
Male 46.0%
Age
18-34 9.8%
35-44 14.3%
45-54 24.1%
55-64 22.6%
65+ 29.1%
Party
Republican 33.9%
Democratic 37.6%
American Independent 5.5%
Libertarian 1.5%
We the People 0.4%
Non-Partisan 19.6%
Other 1.5%
City of Grand Terrace — 1% Local Sales Tax Survey
TO: Client File — City of Grand Terrace Revenue Measure FROM: Chris Collier, Rincon Strategies
DATE: June 8, 2026
RE: Ballot threshold strategy: general tax (50%+1) vs. dedicated special tax (two-thirds) FIELD: June 11–15, 2026 · n=265 likely November 2026 voters · MOE ±6.0% · mixed-mode (live cell/landline + text-to-web), English & Spanish
Bottom Line Up Front
Both paths are live, but they are not equally safe. On the final, fully-informed ballot tests the dedicated public-safety special tax (which requires a two-thirds vote) draws 65.4% combined Yes — genuinely strong support, but it sits 1.3 points below the 66.7% it must clear, inside the margin of error. The general tax (which needs only 50%+1) draws 59.9% combined Yes against a 50% bar — a 9.9-point cushion that comfortably survives any plausible polling anomaly or late erosion.
The two options at a glance
Final ballot test Threshold Combined Yes Margin vs. bar Verdict General tax (Q42) 50% + 1 59.9% +9.9 pts Clears
comfortably
Dedicated special tax (Q44) 66.67% 65.4% −1.3 pts Short, within MOE
Combined Yes = “Definitely yes” + “Probably yes.” All figures are weighted and reflect the final ballot questions asked after respondents heard the full message battery.
The Political Environment
Grand Terrace is a difficult-but-winnable environment for a revenue measure. Three things are true at once, and they pull in different directions.
First, the mood is sour. Only 32.3% say the City is headed in the right direction against 46.8% wrong-track, with 20.8% unsure. A wrong-track plurality is the single most common warning sign for a tax measure, because it signals voters are inclined to withhold rather than extend trust to City Hall.
Second — and this is the offsetting good news — voters have already diagnosed the problem as a money problem. Asked the single most important issue facing the City, 36.7% named City finances, far ahead of parks/recreation (15.9%), taxes/cost of living (14.8%), homelessness (14.3%), and roads (12.0%). When a plurality of your electorate independently identifies fiscal stability as the top concern, you are not manufacturing a need — you are responding to one voters already feel. That is the rationale a revenue measure needs.
Third, service ratings are somewhere in the middle. A slim majority rate City services excellent or good (9.3% + 42.5% = 51.8%), while 30.6% say only fair and 13.0% poor. Voters are not in revolt against the City, but
neither are they so satisfied that they will reflexively reward it. They are persuadable, and persuasion is exactly what the message battery in this survey was designed to test.
Where the Vote Sits: The Numbers in Detail
The survey tested both measures four different ways: an initial read early in the survey, a randomized A/B battery to control for question-order effects, and a final fully-informed read after voters heard seven pro and six con messages. The final reads are the ones that matter, because they approximate the informed electorate you will actually face after a campaign.
Initial reads (before the message battery)
Measure Def. Yes Prob. Yes Combined Yes Total No
Public-safety dedicated (Q7) 38.0% 25.5% 63.5% 25.2%
General services (Q9) 30.3% 25.7% 56.0% 34.2%
Out of the gate the dedicated public-safety frame leads the general frame by 7.5 points. The public-safety language pulls more “definitely yes” intensity (38.0% vs. 30.3%) — voters respond to a concrete, sympathetic purpose more than to “general City use.” This early gap is the entire case for the dedicated measure, and it is real. The problem is what the gap is measured against.
Final, fully-informed reads (after all messaging)
Final ballot test Def. Yes Prob. Yes Comb. Yes Threshold Margin General tax (Q42) 33.5% 26.4% 59.9% 50.0% +9.9
Dedicated tax (Q44) 39.0% 26.4% 65.4% 66.67% −1.3
After the full information battery, both measures hold up well — there is no collapse, which is itself an encouraging sign about durability. But the threshold gap is decisive:
• The general tax finishes at 59.9% against a 50% bar — a 9.9-point cushion. Even if the true value is at the unfavorable edge of the ±6 margin of error, you are still comfortably above 50%. • The dedicated tax finishes at 65.4% against a 66.67% bar — 1.3 points short. The shortfall is smaller than the margin of error, which means the poll cannot distinguish this measure from a true two-thirds.
It could pass; it could fail by several points. It is, statistically, a toss-up.
Put plainly: the same electorate that would pass the general tax by nearly 10 points would, on the best current evidence, narrowly fail to deliver two-thirds for the dedicated tax. You are choosing between a measure you are very likely to win and a measure you might win.
Hard support vs. soft support
Combined-Yes numbers always overstate Election Day reality, because “probably yes” voters drift and because real ballots lack a live interviewer nudging undecideds. The more conservative read is to look at “definitely yes” as the floor of committed support.
• General tax: 33.5% hard yes, 19.8% hard no. The hard-yes base alone does not pass, but you have a wide pool of “probably yes” (26.4%) and only an 8.6% undecided to convert — and you only need to reach 50%.
• Dedicated tax: 39.0% hard yes, 15.3% hard no. Stronger committed core and a smaller hard-no wall — genuinely good fundamentals. But “definitely yes” plus “probably yes” still lands at 65.4%, and twothirds leaves no room to lose any of the soft “probably yes” group.
This is the structural trap of a two-thirds measure: you must convert and then hold nearly every favorable voter. With 65.4% combined support, the dedicated measure can afford to lose essentially none of its “probably yes” voters between the poll and the ballot box. Campaigns almost always shed some soft support down the stretch. A 50%+1 measure sitting at 59.9% can absorb that attrition; a two-thirds measure sitting at
65.4% cannot.
What Voters Actually Want Funded
Voters' own preferences reinforce the public-safety frame even if you ultimately run a general tax. Asked directly which version they prefer (Q19), the dedicated law-enforcement-only version wins outright at
37.2%, versus 20.1% for the general-services version, with 21.4% supporting both equally and 14.2% supporting neither. Voters like the dedicated idea — they simply do not like it by a two-thirds margin.
The funding-priority battery tells you what language to put on a general-tax ballot. The services voters rate “extremely high priority” for new funding are, in order:
Service / program Extremely high Top single pick
9-1-1 and emergency response times 51.9% 6.6%
Addressing homelessness 52.4% 13.8%
Police protection / neighborhood patrols 46.2% 34.7%
Crime prevention / property crime 45.7% 9.8%
Fire protection and paramedics 43.8% 6.1%
Keeping the City financially stable 34.4% 10.1%
Streets and roads 33.1% 8.9%
The signal is unambiguous: public safety is the engine of support. When forced to name a single top priority for new funding, 34.7% chose police patrols — more than double any other option. Emergency response, crime prevention, and fire/paramedics stack on top of that. Homelessness scores high on intensity but is more polarizing and harder to attach to a sales-tax solution.
Strategic implication: even a legally “general” tax should be sold in the language of public safety. The Q42 general-tax ballot question already does this — it is framed as a general tax “with a focus on maintaining and strengthening police and public safety” — and it still clears 50% with room to spare. You can capture nearly all of the public-safety appeal that makes the dedicated measure attractive while keeping the achievable majority threshold. That combination is the heart of the recommendation.
The Message Environment: What Moves Voters
The survey tested seven supportive messages and six opposition messages. The pattern in the responses is as important as any single number, because it tells you whether the measure is defensible under fire.
Strongest supportive messages (“much more likely” to vote yes)
Pro message Much more likely
Every dollar stays local — can't be taken by State/County 60.5% Mandatory independent audits + public disclosure 58.3%
Protects local police patrols and 9-1-1 response 49.5%
One penny on a dollar; groceries & medicine exempt 42.0% Out-of-town shoppers pay their fair share 39.8%
Accountability and localism are your most powerful tools. “Stays local” (60.5%) and “independent audits + disclosure” (58.3%) outperform even the direct public-safety message. This matters enormously for the threshold question: the audit/accountability message is the antidote to the single most effective opposition attack (below), and both the general-tax and dedicated-tax ballot questions already include the audit and “stays local” guarantees. A general tax wrapped in ironclad accountability language neutralizes most of the trust deficit implied by the 46.8% wrong-track number.
Strongest opposition messages (“much less likely” to vote yes) Opposition message Much less likely
“General tax = no guarantee it goes to police” 40.0%
“Tax never ends, even after the need is gone” 14.9%
“Hurts business / drives shoppers elsewhere” 10.7%
“Families already struggle with cost of living” 10.2%
“City should live within its means first” 8.2%
This table contains the most important strategic tension in the entire survey. The single most damaging attack — by a wide margin — is the “no guarantee it goes to police” message, which moves 40.0% “much less likely.” That attack is aimed squarely at the general tax, because it is precisely the general tax that legally permits the money to be spent on anything. The dedicated special tax is structurally immune to it.
This is the strongest argument the dedicated measure has, and it deserves to be stated fairly: choosing the general tax means choosing to run into the teeth of your opponents' best punch. A well-funded opposition will hammer “they can spend it on anything” relentlessly, and 40% “much less likely” is a serious number.
But three facts keep this from reversing the recommendation. (1) The general tax still finishes at 59.9% after voters heard that attack inside the message battery — the damage is already priced in, and the measure still clears 50% by nearly 10 points. (2) The accountability messages (audits/disclosure at 58.3%, stays-local at
60.5%) are the direct rebuttal, and they test stronger than the attack itself. (3) The other five opposition messages are weak — none breaks 15% “much less likely,” and the “no new tax / cost of living” frame that usually drives anti-tax campaigns is notably soft here (10.2%). The opposition has exactly one good message, and you have a tested answer to it.
By contrast, the dedicated measure neutralizes that one attack but gains nothing on the threshold problem, which is the actual reason it is at risk. You would be trading away ~10 points of threshold cushion to defuse a single attack that the data says you can already withstand.
Subgroup Analysis: Where the Coalition Lives
Subgroup samples are small (MOE well above the topline ±6.0%), so these cuts are directional, not precise.
But the patterns are internally consistent across questions, which gives them weight.
Party
This is a registration-balanced electorate: 37.6% Democratic, 33.9% Republican, 19.6% non-partisan, with small American Independent and minor-party slices.
Final test Republican Democratic Non-Partisan Am. Ind.
General tax (Q42) Comb. Yes 57.3% 59.1% 66.0% 62.5%
Dedicated tax (Q44) Comb. Yes 68.5% 61.4% 64.8% 76.4%
The party story is the clearest argument for the dedicated frame: Republicans go from 57.3% on the general tax to 68.5% on the dedicated public-safety tax — an 11-point swing — and American Independents jump even more. Republicans will cross over for police funding in a way they will not for “general City use.” Nonpartisans, by contrast, are the strongest general-tax supporters (66.0%) and do not get more enthusiastic about the dedicated version.
The takeaway is not that one frame wins a party and loses another — both measures draw cross-partisan majorities, which is healthy. It is that the dedicated frame's extra support comes disproportionately from Republicans and independents, exactly the voters most likely to turn out in November and most receptive to a public-safety message. That is real, and it is why the dedicated path is not unachievable. It still does not get the overall number to two-thirds.
Age
Final test 18–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
General (Q42) Yes 49.6% 75.2% 46.0% 62.9% 65.1%
Dedicated (Q44) Yes 43.8% 77.9% 62.1% 68.5% 67.1%
Older voters — who dominate this electorate (51.7% are 55+) and turn out most reliably in November — are solidly above two-thirds for the dedicated measure (65+ at 67.1%, 55–64 at 68.5%). The 35–44 cohort is extraordinarily supportive of both. The soft spots are the youngest (18–34) and the 45–54 group, both of which fall well short of two-thirds on the dedicated measure. Because the youngest voters are also the least likely to actually vote, a likely-voter electorate probably performs a bit better than these raw numbers for the dedicated measure — a point in its favor — but not reliably enough to close a 1.3-point topline gap with confidence.
Homeowners vs. renters, and ethnicity
Homeowners (88.2% of the sample) and renters (11.8%) support both measures at similar levels; renters are slightly softer on the general tax (47.7% Yes) but comparable on the dedicated version. White and Hispanic/Latino voters — together about 90% of the electorate — both deliver majorities for both measures, with White voters somewhat warmer to the dedicated public-safety frame (66.0% Yes) and Hispanic voters steady across both. There is no demographic fault line that threatens the general tax's majority; the coalition is broad. The dedicated measure's risk is not a hostile bloc, it is simply that no bloc is enthusiastic enough to push the overall number from 65% to 67%.