General Fund Long Range Financial Model
FY 2022 Mid-Year Update
ATTACHMENT II
Adopted Mid-Year Mid-Year
Actual Actual Actual Budget Requests Proposed Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 1 Property Tax $54,468 $58,432 $61,196 $58,809 837$ $59,646 $62,315 $65,813 $69,487 $72,993 $74,788 $76,461 $76,653 $77,317 $77,988 2 Sales Tax $36,032 $39,680 $40,075 41,078 1,000 42,078 44,484 46,515 48,452 50,277 51,993 53,602 55,511 57,511 59,608 3 UUT 16,935 16,066 17,268 17,542 - 17,542 17,959 18,385 18,822 19,198 19,582 19,974 20,124 20,602 21,091 4 Real Property Transfer Tax 12,256 12,150 17,120 14,500 2,500 17,000 17,595 18,211 18,848 19,225 19,610 20,002 19,402 20,081 20,784 5 Transient Occupancy Tax 2,823 2,187 1,552 1,500 - 1,500 1,553 1,607 1,663 1,696 1,730 1,765 1,712 1,772 1,834 6 Cannabis Revenue - 3 442 650 268 918 991 1,070 1,156 1,249 1,348 1,456 1,573 1,699 1,835 7 Other Taxes/Franchises 14,750 15,367 15,132 16,551 - 16,551 16,927 17,312 17,707 18,027 18,355 18,688 18,734 19,163 19,602 8 Permits & Fees 10,298 7,643 7,930 6,405 - 6,405 6,609 6,821 7,039 7,204 7,374 7,548 7,515 7,755 8,002 9 Other Revenue 16,885 14,616 19,958 17,630 30 17,660 18,086 18,486 18,821 19,160 19,511 19,864 20,234 20,575 20,929 10 Transfer In-Other Funds 17,357 3,964 3,967 3,969 - 3,969 3,961 3,972 3,982 3,993 4,005 4,016 4,028 3,240 3,252 11 Transfer In-Measure C - - - - - -
12 Total Revenues 181,804 170,107 184,641 178,634 4,634 183,269 190,480 198,191 205,976 213,023 218,295 223,375 225,485 229,714 234,924 13 Salaries/Wages 73,975 74,849 75,475 83,861 1,009 84,870 86,973 89,834 93,457 95,551 97,692 99,881 102,125 104,414 106,754 14 Overtime 9,574 9,767 11,903 3,320 - 3,320 3,415 3,498 3,577 3,657 3,740 3,824 3,911 3,999 4,089 15 Program Reduction
16 Furlough / COLA Deferral
17 Retirement 26,951 30,183 33,051 37,602 - 37,602 38,190 40,773 42,996 45,123 46,542 47,906 48,904 47,937 48,972 18 Health/Other Benefits 12,222 12,340 12,586 15,752 - 15,752 16,616 17,522 18,492 19,486 20,538 21,649 22,825 24,069 25,385 19 Retiree Medical (Pay-Go) 3,020 3,107 3,059 3,248 - 3,248 3,362 3,451 3,582 3,700 3,823 3,961 4,105 4,185 4,302 20 Retiree Medical (UAL) 2,000 2,135 2,000 3,160 - 3,160 4,191 4,302 4,466 4,612 4,765 4,937 5,117 5,217 5,363 21 Workers Comp 6,786 6,791 7,972 8,022 - 8,022 8,319 8,593 8,939 9,140 9,345 9,554 9,769 9,987 10,211 22 Interdept Charges (3,803) (5,031) (3,500) (4,361) - (4,361) (4,485) (4,594) (4,698) (4,804) (4,912) (5,023) (5,136) (5,252) (5,371) 23 Vacancy Savings - - - (2,722) - (2,722) (2,204) (2,278) (2,370) (2,431) (2,494) (2,560) (2,629) (2,661) (2,736) 24 Subtotal Personnel 130,724 134,140 142,546 147,880 1,009 148,889 154,376 161,101 168,443 174,036 179,038 184,130 188,990 191,896 196,970 25 Supplies & Services 12,238 13,025 12,683 10,530 (598) 9,932 10,741 10,956 11,175 11,398 11,626 11,859 12,096 12,338 12,585 26 Internal Service Fees 15,504 16,858 14,048 14,890 - 14,890 15,188 15,492 15,801 16,117 16,440 16,769 17,104 17,446 17,795 27 Debt Service 2,857 2,015 2,993 2,851 - 2,851 2,712 2,713 2,715 2,715 2,715 734 734 508 282 28 Capital Outlay/Projects 8,784 5,826 2,374 4,004 1,438 5,442 4,084 4,166 4,249 4,334 4,421 4,509 4,599 4,691 4,785 29 Economic Development / Other Funds 3,550 350 350 350 425 775 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 30 Insurance 2,950 3,139 3,902 4,282 - 4,282 4,496 4,721 4,957 5,204 5,465 5,738 6,025 6,326 6,642 31 Additions/(Reductions) - - - - 545 545 - - - - - - - - - 32 Subtotal O&M 45,884 41,213 36,351 36,907 1,810 38,717 37,571 38,397 39,247 40,119 41,017 39,958 40,908 41,659 42,439 33 Total Expense 176,608 175,353 178,897 184,787 2,819 187,606 191,946 199,497 207,690 214,154 220,055 224,088 229,898 233,555 239,409 34 35 Chng in Res-Surplus/(Shortfall) 5,196 (5,246) 5,743 (6,153) 1,815 (4,338) (1,466) (1,307) (1,714) (1,131) (1,760) (713) (4,413) (3,841) (4,485) 36 37 Beginning Balance 32,385 36,877 30,847 36,130 36,130 39,042 44,826 43,519 41,805 40,674 38,914 38,201 33,788 29,947 38 CAFR Adjustments (704) (783) (461)
39 40 Transfer-In-ARPA 7,250 7,250
41 42 Ending Balance 36,877 30,847 36,130 29,977 39,042 44,826 43,519 41,805 40,674 38,914 38,201 33,788 29,947 25,461 43 44
45 46
53 54
55 Balance as % of Total Expense 20.9% 17.6% 20.2% 16.2% 20.8% 23.4% 21.8% 20.1% 19.0% 17.7% 17.0% 14.7% 12.8% 10.6% 56 Balance at 20% of Expenses 35,322 35,071 35,779 36,957 37,521 38,389 39,899 41,538 42,831 44,011 44,818 45,980 46,711 47,882 57 Amt Above or (Below) 20% 1,555 (4,223) 350 (6,981) 1,521 6,437 3,619 267 (2,157) (5,097) (6,617) (12,192) (16,764) (22,421) ($ in Thousands)
SUMMARY FORECAST