DATE: October 6, 2022
TO: Council Sustainability Committee
FROM: Director of Public Works
SUBJECT 2020 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
RECOMMENDATION
That the Council Sustainability Committee (CSC) reviews and comments on this report.
SUMMARY
The Council-adopted General Plan includes greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for the community. This report provides the results of the calendar year 2020 inventory and compares it to the previous six inventories. Table 1 summarizes the emissions totals for the eight sectors – electricity, natural gas, transportation, public buses (AC Transit), BART, off-road vehicles, waste, and water and wastewater. Emissions are displayed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTC02e). The table shows that, in 2020, emissions were reduced by 42.7% since 2005. In 2020, the largest reductions occurred in the transportation sector due to the stay-at-home orders and economic disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Table 1: GHG Emissions by Sector (MT C02e)
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change from 2005
Electricity
185,536
165,172
141,814
74,919
47,452
12,467
23,038
-87.6%
Natural Gas
189,995
191,526
176,803
186,111
187,991
176,649
166,334
-12.5%
Transportation
529,317
467,725
450,925
445,769
440,914
420,995
309,168
-41.6%
Off-Road Vehicles
14,889
17,004
27,267
27,019
21,830
24,287
22,924
+54.0%
Waste
50,924
38,338
38,148
47,555
52,209
46,187
34,628
-32.0%
Water and wastewater
4,715
4,311
3,466
2,738
2,726
2,702
2,516
-46.6%
Total
975,376
884,076
838,423
784,111
753,122
683,287
558,608
-42.7%
Hayward Population
140,530
143,921
155,753
159,623
159,603
160,197
162,954
14.1%
Total Emissions/
Capita
7.7 6.9
6.2 5.7
5.4 5.1
4.9 -36.34%
BACKGROUND
The last report on the City’s GHG emissions, presented to the CSC in January 2021, showed that Hayward’s emissions were reduced by 25.7% from 2005 to 2019. This report presents the 2020 inventory results, which show a 42.7% reduction. This report and previous reports are available on the City’s Climate Action Plan page. The City of Hayward’s General Plan Policy NR-2.4 sets the following GHG emissions reduction targets.
NR-2.4: Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction
The City shall…reduce community-based GHG emissions by 20 percent below 2005 baseline levels by 2020, 30 percent below 2005 baseline emissions levels by 2025, 55 percent below 2005 baseline emissions levels by 2030, and work with the community to develop a plan that may result in the reduction of community-based GHG emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
To track compliance with these targets, the City began conducting community GHG emissions inventories every five years, starting with 2005 as the baseline year. Starting with the 2017 inventory, the City has conducted inventories annually. All seven inventories use the U.S. Community Protocol methodology to calculate GHG emissions. The U.S. Community Protocol methodology is an industry-standard used by local governments to account for and report on GHG emissions in a standardized method.
DISCUSSION
Over the past fifteen years, organizations have continuously refined and updated the models that are used to estimate emissions to provide more accurate information. In response, staff recalculated emissions for 2005-2019, which has included the addition of public bus emissions and a new methodology for calculating on-road transportation emissions. As a result, the emissions totals in this report do not match the numbers from previous reports. It should be noted that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on community-wide activities plays a significant role in the reduction in emissions from 2019 to 2020 and that an increase in emissions in 2021 is likely.
As shown below in Table 2, Hayward met its goal of 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 two years early by achieving a reduction of 21.6% in 2018. As of 2020, Hayward has achieved a 42.7% reduction, surpassing the City’s 2025 emission reduction goal of 30% below the 2005 baseline. ). However, it should be noted that the large reductions seen in 2020 can be primarily attributed to the stay-at-home orders and economic disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Staff has received some preliminary 2021 data and are already seeing large increases in emissions compared to 2020.
Table 2: GHG Emission Reduction Goals and Actual Emission Reductions Year
Goal
Actual Reduction
2005
Baseline
2018
21.6%
2019
25.7%
2020
20%
42.7%
2025
30%
2030
55%
2045
Carbon neutrality
The City’s GHG inventory is comprised of eight sectors: electricity, natural gas, transportation, public buses (AC Transit), BART, off-road vehicles, solid waste, and water and wastewater. Figure 1 below shows the subsector breakdown for each year and the percent of each subsector for that year. Transportation, shown in purple, remains the largest sector and over the years accounts for 52-61% of the total. BART, AC Transit, and water and wastewater all account for less than 1% of all emissions, off-road vehicles account for 1-4% of emissions, and solid waste makes up 4-7% of emissions. Electricity, shown in dark green, makes up 2-19% of emissions and natural gas, shown in light green, makes up 20-30% of emissions.
Figure 1: GHG Emissions by Subsector (MT C02e)
Energy Sector (Electricity and Natural Gas)
Overall energy emissions in 2020 were 49.6% below 2005 levels, with an 87.6% decrease in electricity emissions and a 12.5% decrease in natural gas emissions from 2005 to 2020 (see Table 3). Residential electricity emissions have decreased by 67% and nonresidential electricity emissions have decreased by 96% since 2005. The primary reasons that electricity emissions have decreased is the City’s customers, starting in mid-2018, were transitioned to electricity provided by East Bay Community Energy (EBCE) and the grid having more carbon-free sources. Through the end of 2021, the default product for the majority of Hayward customers was Brilliant 100, a carbon-free product. EBCE was launched in 2018 and 2020 marked two years of Hayward customers receiving EBCE service. In January 2022, the Brilliant 100 product was discontinued, and most Hayward customers were transitioned to Renewable 100, which is 100% wind and solar power. Customers receiving income and medical-related discounts have remained on Bright Choice, EBCE’s lower cost product.
From 2019 to 2020, residential electricity emissions increased while nonresidential electricity emissions decreased. The increase in residential emissions in 2020 can be attributed to a minor uptick in electricity usage (kWh) and a change in the Bright Choice product power mix. In 2019, Bright Choice was 85% carbon free (60% renewable, 25% large hydro, 13% unspecified, and 1.5% nuclear). In 2020, it was 54% carbon free (39.6% renewable, 14.5% large hydro, 44.7% unspecified, and 0.9% nuclear).
The shift in the power mix is due to a decision made by EBCE to focus on renewables rather than carbon-free content and maintain Bright Choice with a minimum of 5% more renewables than PG&E (31.7% renewable in 2019). The power mix for 2021 has not yet been released, but PG&E reported a renewable content of 36.2% for 2020, so the power content procurement floor for Bright Choice in 2021 was set to 41.2%. EBCE intends to make Bright Choice cleaner in the coming years, and in December 2020, the EBCE Board voted to establish a goal of providing 100% carbon free electricity by 2030.
Residential and nonresidential natural gas emissions have decreased from 2005 to 2020, with a reduction of 8.4% and 17.3%, respectively. From 2019 to 2020, there was a 0.5% decrease in residential natural gas. The decrease in natural gas emissions in 2020 may be related to a slight decrease in heating degree days (HDD) (see Figure 3 below). With the 2019 California Building Code and Hayward’s current electrification reach code in effect and the adoption of a new reach code this year, it is possible that emissions from residential natural gas will have peaked in 2019.
Table 3: Energy Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change
Residential electricity
GHG Emissions
53,939
51,166
44,807
23,440
20,548
6,326
17,547
-67.5%
kWh
242,161,904
252,327,941
242,783,315
243,910,202
239,735,346
239,006,697
215,828,544
-10.9%
Nonresidential electricity
GHG Emissions
131,597
114,006
97,007
51,479
26,904
6,140
5,491
-95.8%
kWh
590,811,842
562,228,183
525,628,036
535,682,182
514,657,102
511,639,672
381,744,082
-35.4%
Residential natural gas
GHG Emissions
103,502
103,027
86,736
91,719
93,019
95,291
94,811
-8.4%
therms
19,489,985
19,400,629
16,332,954
17,271,164
17,516,060
17,943,901
17,853,480
-8.4%
Nonresidential natural gas
GHG Emissions
86,493
88,499
90,066
94,392
94,972
81,358
71,523
-17.3%
therms
16,287,167
16,664,879
16,960,038
17,774,540
17,883,737
15,320,155
13,468,246
-17.3%
Total GHG Emissions
375,531
356,699
318,617
261,030
235,442
189,116
189,373
-49.6%
Figure 2: Energy Sector GHG Emissions (MT C02e)
Figure 3: Residential Natural Gas Usage & Heating Degree Days in Hayward Transportation Sector
As shown in Table 4, transportation emissions in 2020 were 41.6% below emissions in 2005. Also reflected in the table below, the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) decreased in 2010, followed by an increase in 2015, 2017, and 2018. This is likely related to the economic recession and recovery.
From 2019 to 2020, there was a significant change in on-road transportation because of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, Hayward experienced a 28% decrease in VMT and a 27% decrease in emissions (see Figure 4 below). As transportation patterns begin to return to pre-pandemic levels, Hayward should experience an increase in VMT and emissions. For example, preliminary data from 2021 shows a 22% increase in emissions from 2020.
Staff was able to capture the impact of the pandemic through a new data source from Google called Environmental Insights Explorer (EIE). Previous inventories have included on-road transportation activity data from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) which uses a transportation model that relies on surveys of transportation patterns, land use and population metrics to calculate VMT for passenger and commercial vehicles completing trips entirely within the city, ending or starting within the city, and those that only pass through. Staff supplemented the MTC data with data from the California Air Resources Board on motorcycles, motor homes, and buses to account for the full scope of on-road transportation in Hayward. The new dataset from Google EIE accounts for all vehicle types that start or end within the city. This data is advantageous because it uses anonymized and aggregated location history data that is a real time reflection of local changes in transportation use. Therefore, it better captures the impact of the pandemic on residents’ transportation habits than the previously used transportation model. Staff re-calculated transportation emissions in inventory years that were not available from Google EIE (2005-2017) to make an apples-to-apples comparison to the 2005 baseline.
Overall emissions factors have decreased in all categories over the last fifteen years as vehicles have become cleaner. For example, Table 5 shows the increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Hayward from 2005 to 2020, with VMT from EVs accounting for 4.4% of the total VMT in 2020. The decrease in emission factor value is why we have seen an overall decrease in emissions of 41.6%, while seeing a smaller decrease of 31% in VMT.
Table 4: Transportation Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change
Passenger
GHG Emissions
377,446
338,117
326,365
315,183
314,781
298,789
211,039
-44.1%
VMT
892,306,860
816,707,906
865,690,372
873,083,596
889,212,170
861,063,825
617,072,288
-30.8%
Commercial
GHG Emissions
136,630
114,193
109,561
115,973
114,937
111,528
88,826
-35.0%
VMT
92,131,008
78,000,821
74,683,974
80,313,371
79,873,038
77,611,421
61,090,968
-33.7%
Buses*
GHG Emissions
11,801
11,990
10,722
10,619
10,629
10,131
8,757
-25.8%
VMT
5,577,396
5,475,994
5,428,860
5,905,211
5,831,233
5,641,195
4,833,186
-13.3%
BART
GHG Emissions
3,440
3,425
4,276
3,994
566
547
546
-84.1%
Passenger Miles
37,081,195
36,927,142
46,098,239
43,063,231
42,723,729
41,311,182
41,185,416
11.1%
Total GHG Emissions
529,317
467,725
450,924
445,769
440,913
420,995
309,168
-41.6%
Total VMT
990,015,264
900,184,721
945,803,206
959,302,178
974,916,441
944,316,441
682,996,441
-31.0%
*Buses include public (AC Transit) and private (Google EIE) **Total VMT excludes BART passenger miles
Figure 4: Transportation Sector GHG Emissions (MT CO2e) Table 5: Electric Vehicle Adoption (VMT)
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change
Electric Vehicle VMT
193,790
294,521
7,149,352
12,840,434
18,125,136
22,892,120
29,820,720
15,288%
Total VMT
990,015,264
900,184,721
945,803,206
959,302,178
974,916,441
944,316,441
682,996,441
-31%
% EV of Total
0.02%
0.03%
0.76%
1.34%
1.86%
2.42%
4.37%
22,205%
Off-road Vehicles Sector
The off-road vehicle sector includes emissions from equipment used in construction, commercial, and industrial activities. Emissions from this sector have increased by 54% from 2005 to 2020 as a result of increased construction and industrial activity. Note that the change in emissions is particularly large due to a lack of data for some equipment categories in 2005.
Solid Waste Sector
Solid waste emissions in 2020 were 32% below 2005 levels. As shown in Table 7, after several years of emissions increasing, which was likely due to an increase in economic activity, emissions decreased in 2019 and continued following the same trend in 2020. The peak in 2018 is likely due to disruptions in recycling markets caused by China’s “National Sword” policies. The recent decline in waste tonnage can be attributed to reduced economic activity during the pandemic and efforts by Hayward staff to teach residents and businesses to sort waste properly and compost food scraps. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, waste tonnage is expected to increase. This year, SB1383 went into effect, requiring residences and businesses to sort and separately collect food scraps, yard debris and food-soiled paper from trash and recycling and subscribe to an organic waste collection service. Staff expects that the outreach associated with SB1383 will somewhat mitigate any increases in the tons of waste sent to landfill and associated emissions.
Table 7: Solid Waste Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change*
Waste Sent to Landfill
GHG Emissions
50,924
38,338
38,148
47,555
52,209
46,187
34,628
-32.0%
Tons of waste
173,908
130,806
136,261
167,434
185,432
163,196
122,375
-29.6%
Figure 5: Solid Waste Sector GHG Emissions
Water and Wastewater Sector
Water and wastewater emissions in 2020 were 46% below 2005 levels. As shown in Table 8, water consumption declined significantly from 2010 – 2015 and then fluctuated around 50 million gallons per year for the next 4 inventory years. The total decrease in water consumption from 2005 to 2020 was 28.7%. In general, the decrease in water consumption can be attributed to drought periods, use reduction requests from the State and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, COVID-19, public awareness, and conservation projects and programs offered by the City.
Table 8: Water and Wastewater Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change
Water Consumption (mg)
7,335
7,120
4,697
5,083
5,314
5,018
5,227
-28.7%
Wastewater Processed (mg )
5,010
4,540
3,825
4,407
4,081
4,219
3,851
-23.1%
Total Emissions (MTCO2e)
4,715
4,311
3,466
2,738
2,726
2,702
2,516
-46.64%
Residential Water Consumption (mg)
3,181
2,964
2,680
2,825
2,693
2,898
-8.90%
Hayward Population
140,530
143,921
155,753
159,623
159,603
160,197
162,954
15.9%
Per Capita Residential Water Consumption (gal) per day
61 52
46 48
46 49
-24.28%
mg = million gallons
Figure 6: Water and Wastewater Sector GHG Emissions
Limitations of this Inventory
The GHG inventory method that the City’s uses, along with most cities worldwide, was originally designed by ICLEI and partners in the early 2000s. The focus then and now is on measuring emissions from the data sources that are most readily available, such as utility data. This approach is practical, but it comes with limitations.
The inventories completed omit large sources of emissions over which the City may have some influence. Specifically, the inventory does not include the upstream emissions of the goods consumed in the City. For example, emission reductions from green purchasing policies would not be reflected in the current inventory. Also, one of the biggest contributors to GHG emissions worldwide, food, is not reflected in Hayward’s inventory.
The reason upstream emissions are not included is that it is difficult to obtain data on consumer consumption patterns specifically for Hayward. However, some attempts are being made. In 2016, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) launched a project with UC Berkeley to create consumption-based inventories for Bay Area cities. Staff has concerns with the data sources used for this project, but feels that the intent is meaningful.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
There is no economic impact associated with the completed inventory. However, the information acquired from the inventory provides staff with insight on what needs to be done to meet the City’s GHG reduction goals. Meeting the City’s ambitious GHG reduction goals will require significant investment throughout the community and has the potential to create new local jobs, however some necessary improvements are not currently cost-effective.
FISCAL IMPACT
The 2020 GHG inventory was prepared by City staff and resulted in no cost to the City beyond budgeted staff positions.
STRATEGIC ROADMAP
This agenda item supports the Strategic Priority of Confront Climate Crisis & Champion Environmental Justice. This item is not specifically related to a project identified in the Strategic Roadmap. However, this agenda item does help track progress of projects identified in the Strategic Roadmap, such as:
Project C5: Adopt & implement 2030 GHG Goal & Roadmap along with other General Plan Elements Project C7: Plant 1,000 trees annually
Project C8: Transition 15% of total city fleet to EV/hybrid models Project C9: Work with EBCE to transition citywide electricity use to 100% carbon free Project C10: Explore feasibility of banning natural gas in non-residential (commercial) buildings (for next code update)
SUSTAINABILITY FEATURES
Meeting GHG reduction goals is the primary objective of the City’s Climate Action Plan. Meeting the goals will require reducing emissions in every sector and will entail improving energy efficiency in buildings, decarbonizing buildings, increasing the use of renewable energy, and reducing vehicle-related emissions. All these actions will result in cleaner air for Hayward residents and for the region.
Next Steps
Staff will continue to work with EBCE, StopWaste and regional agencies to identify potential opportunities to streamline GHG inventories on a county or regional level, with the goal of maintaining annual reporting.
Prepared by: Nicole Grucky, Sustainability Specialist Erik Pearson, Environmental Services Manager
Recommended by: Alex Ameri, Director of Public Works
Approved by:
_________________________________
Kelly McAdoo, City Manager
Carbon dioxide is not the only gas that contributes to climate change. Each greenhouse gas causes varying amounts of warming. For example, one ton of methane (CH4) causes the same amount of warming as 23 tons of CO2 (1 ton of CH4 = 23 tons CO2e). To simplify reporting, it is standard practice to report carbon equivalent emissions (CO2e) as opposed to the actual emissions of each gas. https://hayward.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4747797&GUID=2B1F0C6F-B961-4AA3-9553-240ACE74B4B1&Options=&Search= https://www.hayward-ca.gov/services/city-services/climate-action The percentages for each subsector are relative to the total emissions for each year.
Heating degree day is the unit which measures how many degrees, and how many days, outside air temperatures were lower than the base temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. http://www.baaqmd.gov/about-air-quality/research-and-data/emission-inventory/consumption-based-ghg-emissions-inventory The City’s current inventory is a hybrid of consumption and production. For example, energy consumed by residents is consumption-based and energy consumed by industry is production-based. The State of California performs a true production-based inventory, measuring all emissions produced in California from all sectors, including agriculture.