DATE: September 11, 2023
TO: Council Sustainability Committee
FROM: Director of Public Works
SUBJECT 2021 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
RECOMMENDATION
That the Council Sustainability Committee (CSC) reviews and comments on this report.
SUMMARY
The Council-adopted General Plan includes greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for the community. This report provides the results of the calendar year 2021 inventory and compares it to the previous seven inventories. Table 1 summarizes the emissions totals for six sectors – electricity, natural gas, transportation (includes public transit), off-road vehicles, waste, and water and wastewater. Emissions are displayed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTC02e). The table shows that, in 2021, emissions were reduced by 37.4% since 2005.
Table 1: GHG Emissions by Sector (MT C02e)
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change from 2005
Electricity
185,536
165,172
141,814
74,919
47,452
12,467
23,038
35,844
-80.7%
Natural Gas
189,995
191,526
176,803
186,111
187,991
176,649
166,334
168,917
-11.1%
Transportation
529,317
458,988
450,925
445,769
440,914
420,995
309,168
345,905
-34.6%
Off-Road Vehicles
14,889
17,004
27,267
27,019
21,830
24,287
31,352
25,040
68.2%
Waste
50,924
38,338
38,148
47,555
52,209
46,187
34,628
32,011
-37.1%
Water and wastewater
4,718
4,314
3,471
2,742
2,730
2,706
2,516
2,201
-53.3%
Total
975,379
884,079
838,428
784,115
753,126
683,291
567,036
609,918
-37.4%
Hayward Population
140,530
143,921
155,753
159,623
159,603
160,197
162,954
163,404
16.3%
Total Emissions/
Capita
6.9 6.1
5.4 4.9
4.7 4.3
3.5 3.8
-46.7%
BACKGROUND
The last report on the City’s GHG emissions, presented to the CSC on October 6, 2022, showed that Hayward’s emissions were reduced by 41.8% from 2005 to 2020, a temporary reduction attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. This report presents the 2021 inventory results, which shows a 37.4% reduction. This report and previous reports are available on the City’s Climate Action Plan page. The City’s General Plan Policy NR-2.4 sets the following GHG emissions reduction targets.
NR-2.4: Community GHG Reduction
The City shall reduce community-based GHG emissions by 20 percent below 2005 baseline levels by 2020, 30 percent below 2005 baseline emissions levels by 2025, 55 percent below 2005 baseline emissions levels by 2030, and work with the community to develop a plan that may result in the reduction of community-based GHG emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
To track compliance with these targets, the City began conducting community GHG emissions inventories every five years, starting with 2005 as the baseline year. Starting with the 2017 inventory, the City has conducted inventories annually. All seven inventories use the U.S. Community Protocol methodology to calculate GHG emissions. The U.S. Community Protocol methodology is an industry-standard used by local governments to account for and report on GHG emissions in a standardized method.
Over the past fifteen years, organizations have continuously refined and updated the models that are used to estimate emissions to provide more accurate information. In response, staff recalculates emissions with the new modeling across all the inventories. As a result, the emissions totals in this report may not match the numbers from previous reports.
DISCUSSION
As shown in Table 2, Hayward met its goal of 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 two years early by achieving a reduction of 21.6% in 2018. In 2020, Hayward surpassed its 2025 emission reduction goal of 30% below the 2005 baseline when it achieved a 41.8% emission reduction. However, the major reduction in emissions from 2019 to 2020 were attributed to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on community-wide activities, and staff predicted that emissions would likely increase in 2021 as pandemic-related restrictions eased. From 2020 to 2021, community-wide emissions increased by 7%, with an overall reduction of 37.4% from the 2005 baseline. Staff predicts that emissions will continue to rise over the next few years as transportation activity increases post-pandemic.
Table 2: GHG Emission Reduction Goals and Actual Emission Reductions Year
Goal
Actual Reduction
2005
Baseline
2018
21.6%
2019
25.7%
2020
20%
41.8%
2021
37.4%
2025
30%
2030
55%
2045
Carbon neutrality
The City’s GHG inventory is comprised of eight sectors: electricity, natural gas, transportation, public buses (AC Transit), BART, off-road vehicles, solid waste, and water and wastewater. Figure 1 below shows the subsector breakdown for each year and the percent of each subsector for that year. Transportation, shown in purple, remains the largest sector and over the years accounts for 52-61% of the total. BART, AC Transit, and water and wastewater all account for less than 1% of all emissions, off-road vehicles account for 1-6% of emissions, and solid waste makes up 4-7% of emissions. Electricity, shown in dark green, makes up 2-19% of emissions and natural gas, shown in light green, makes up 20-30% of emissions.
Figure 1: GHG Emissions by Subsector (MT C02e2)
Energy Sector (Electricity and Natural Gas)
Overall energy emissions in 2021 were 45.5% below 2005 levels, with an 80.7% decrease in electricity emissions and an 11.1% decrease in natural gas emissions from 2005 to 2021 (see Table 3). Residential electricity emissions have decreased by 57.5% and nonresidential electricity emissions have decreased by 90.2% since 2005. The primary reason that electricity emissions have decreased is the City’s customers, starting in mid-2018, were transitioned to electricity provided by East Bay Community Energy (EBCE). As a result, electricity emissions decreased significantly from 2018 to 2019. The default product for the majority of Hayward customers has been a carbon-free electricity product (Brilliant 100 from 2018-2021, Renewable 100 from 2022 on). However, customers not on the default product have seen an increase in electricity emissions as EBCE’s cheaper Bright Choice product has become increasingly dirtier. Overall, residential electricity emissions have increased 262% since 2019, despite only a 2.3% increase in kWh, and non-residential electricity emissions have increased 110%, despite a 19.7% decrease in kWh.
Residential and nonresidential natural gas emissions have decreased from 2005 to 2021, with a reduction of 9.5% and 13.1%, respectively. From 2020 to 2021, there was a 1.1% decrease in residential gas emissions. Residential natural gas emissions have continued to decrease since 2019 and may be related to the adoption of the 2019 and 2022 California Building Codes and Hayward’s 2020 and 2022 reach codes, requiring some all-electric pathways in new buildings and increased energy efficiency, as well as a decrease in heating degree days (HDD) (see Figure 3 below).
Table 3: Energy Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change
Residential electricity
GHG Emissions
53,939
51,166
44,807
23,440
20,548
6,326
17,547
22,930
-57.5%
MWh
242,161
252,327
242,783
243,910
239,735
239,006
215,828
244,416
+0.9%
Nonresidential electricity
GHG Emissions
131,597
114,006
97,007
51,479
26,904
6,140
5,491
12,914
-90.2%
MWh
590,811
562,228
525,628
535,682
514,657
511,639
381,744
410,516
-30.5%
Residential natural gas
GHG Emissions
103,502
103,027
86,736
91,719
93,019
95,291
94,811
93,713
-9.5%
Therms (in millons)
19.489
19.400
16.332
17.271
17.516
17.943
17.853
17.646
-9.5%
Nonresidential natural gas
GHG Emissions
86,493
88,499
90,066
94,392
94,972
81,358
71,523
75,204
-13.1%
Therms (in millions)
16.287
16.664
16.960
17.774
17.883
15.320
13.468
14.161
-13.1%
Total GHG Emissions
375,531
356,699
318,617
261,030
235,442
189,116
189,373
204,761
-45.5%
Figure 2: Energy Sector GHG Emissions (MT CO2e)
Figure 3: Residential Natural Gas Usage & Heating Degree Days in Hayward Transportation Sector
As shown in Table 4, from 2005 to 2021 transportation emissions decreased by 34.7% and total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) decreased by 20.3%. The total VMT decreased between 2005 and 2010 and was followed by sustained increases from 2015 to 2018. This was likely related to the economic recession and recovery. From 2019 to 2020, there were significant changes in on-road transportation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 31% decrease in VMT and a 41.6% decrease in total transportation emissions from 2005 levels.
As transportation patterns began to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, Hayward experienced an 15.5% increase in VMT and a 11.9% increase in transportation emissions from 2020 to 2021 (see Figure 4 below).
Starting in 2020, staff was able to capture the impact of the pandemic and obtain a more complete scope of transportation emissions through a new data source from Google called Environmental Insights Explorer (EIE). Previous inventories have included on-road transportation activity data from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) which uses a model that relies on surveys of transportation patterns, land use and population metrics to calculate VMT for passenger and commercial vehicles completing trips entirely within the city, ending or starting within the city, and those that pass through the city.
Staff supplemented the MTC data with data from the California Air Resources Board on motorcycles, motor homes, and buses to account for the full scope of on-road transportation in Hayward. The new dataset from Google EIE accounts for all vehicle types that start or end within the city. This data is advantageous because it uses anonymized aggregated location history data from mobile devices that is a real time reflection of local changes in transportation use. Therefore, it better captures the impact of the pandemic on residents’ transportation habits than the previously used transportation model. In order to make accurate comparisons to the 2005 baseline, staff re-calculated transportation emissions in inventory years that were not available from Google EIE (2005-2017).
Overall emissions factors have decreased in all categories over the last sixteen years as vehicles have become cleaner. For example, Table 5 shows the increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Hayward from 2005 to 2021, with VMT from EV’s accounting for 4% of the total VMT in 2021. The decrease in emission factor value is why we have seen an overall decrease in emissions of 34.7% while seeing a smaller decrease of 20.3% in VMT. With recent legislation banning the sale of gas-powered cars beginning in 2035 and the recent push to incentivize EV purchases, it is likely this trend will continue as more people replace their cars with electric vehicles.
Table 4: Transportation Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change
Passenger
GHG Emissions
377,446
338,117
326,365
315,183
314,781
298,789
211,039
238,817
-36.7%
VMT (in millions)
892.306
816.707
865.690
873.083
889.212
861.063
617.072
717.166
-19.6%
Commercial
GHG Emissions
136,630
114,193
109,561
115,973
114,937
111,528
88,826
98,220
-28.1%
VMT (in millions)
92.131
78.000
74.683
80.313
79.873
77.611
61.090
69.266
-24.8%
Buses*
GHG Emissions
11,801
11,990
10,722
10,619
10,629
10,131
8,757
8,770
-25.7%
VMT (in millions)
5.577
5.475
5.428
5.905
5.831
5.641
4.833
2.505
-55.1%
BART
GHG Emissions
3,440
3,425
4,276
3,994
566
547
546
98 -97.2%
Passenger Miles (in millions)
37.081
36.927
46.098
43.063
42.723
41.311
41.185
7.402
-80.0%
Total GHG Emissions
529,317
467,725
450,924
445,769
440,913
420,995
309,168
345,905
-34.7%
Total VMT (in millions)
990.015
900.184
945.803
959.302
974.916
944.316
682.996
788.938
-20.3%

*Buses include public (AC Transit) and private (Google EIE) **Total VMT excludes BART passenger miles
Figure 4: Transportation Sector GHG Emissions (MT CO2e) Table 5: Electric Vehicle Adoption (VMT)
2005
2015
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change
Electric Vehicle VMT
193,790
7,149,352
18,125,136
22,892,120
29,820,720
33,696,832
17,288%
Total VMT
990,015,264
945,803,206
974,916,441
944,316,441
682,996,441
788,938,493
-15.4%
% EV of Total
0.02%
0.76%
1.86%
2.42%
4.37%
4.27%
21720%
Off-road Vehicles Sector
The off-road vehicle sector includes emissions from equipment used in construction, commercial, and industrial activities. Emissions from this sector have increased by 68.2% from 2005 to 2021 as a result of increased construction and industrial activity. Note that the change in emissions is particularly large due to a lack of data for some equipment categories in 2005.
Solid Waste Sector
Solid waste emissions in 2021 were 37% below 2005 levels. As shown in Table 6, after several years of emissions increasing, which was likely due to an increase in economic activity, emissions began to decrease in 2019 and has followed the same trend through 2021. The peak in 2018 is likely due to disruptions in recycling markets caused by China’s “National Sword” policies. The decline in waste tonnage starting in 2020 can be attributed to reduced economic activity during the pandemic. SB1383 went into effect early 2022, requiring residences and businesses to sort and separately collect food scraps, yard debris, and food-soiled paper from trash and recycling, and subscribe to an organic waste collection service. As a result, staff expects to see reductions in the tons of waste sent to landfill and associated emissions reductions starting with the upcoming 2022 inventory.
Table 6: Solid Waste Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2015
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change
Waste Sent to Landfill
GHG Emissions
50,924
38,148
52,209
46,187
34,628
32,011
-37.1%
Tons of waste
173,908
136,261
185,432
163,196
122,375
113,038
-35.0%
Figure 5: Solid Waste Sector GHG Emissions
Water and Wastewater Sector
Water and wastewater emissions in 2021 were 53.3% below 2005 levels. As shown in Table 7, water consumption declined significantly from 2010 to 2015, and has hovered around 5 billion gallons per year through 2021. The total decrease in water consumption from 2005 to 2021 was 30.5%. In general, the decrease in water consumption can be attributed to drought periods, use reduction requests from the State and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, COVID-19, public awareness, and the City’s water conservation programs.
Table 7: Water and Wastewater Sector GHG Emissions
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Change
Water Consumption (B gal)
7.335
7.120
4.697
5.083
5.314
5.018
5.227
5.095
-30.5%
Wastewater Processed (B gal)
5.009
4.539
3.824
4.407
4.081
4.218
3.850
3.819
-23.8%
Total Emissions (MTCO2e)
4,718
4,314
3,471
2,742
2,730
2,706
2,516
2,201
-53.3%
Residential Water Consumption* (B gal)
3.534
3.180
2.963
2.679
2.824
2.692
2.897
2.779
-21.4%
Hayward Population
140,530
143,921
155,753
159,623
159,603
160,197
162,954
163,404
16.3%
Per Capita Residential Water Consumption (gal)/day
69 61
52 46
48 46
48 47
-32.4%
*2005 residential consumption water data unavailable, used 2008 data Figure 6: Water and Wastewater Sector GHG Emissions
Limitations of this Inventory
The GHG inventory method that the City’s uses, along with most cities worldwide, was originally designed by ICLEI and its partners in the early 2000s. The focus then and now is on measuring emissions from the data sources that are most readily available, such as utility data. This approach is practical, but comes with its limitations.
The inventories completed omit large sources of emissions over which the City may have some influence. Specifically, the inventory does not include the upstream emissions of the goods consumed in the City. For example, emission reductions from green purchasing policies would not be reflected in the current inventory. Additionally, one of the biggest contributors of GHG emissions worldwide, food, is not reflected in Hayward’s inventory.
The reason upstream emissions are not included is that it is difficult to obtain data on consumer consumption patterns in Hayward. Current guidance states that a consumption-based emissions inventory should not be a substitute for citywide inventories, rather the two should be used together. Staff will continue to monitor the latest science on consumption-based emission inventories and as data and modeling becomes more readily available, explore creating a consumption-based inventory for Hayward.
As was previously mentioned in the report, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on community-wide GHG emissions in 2020 and 2021. The emission reductions from the 2021 inventory may not be sustainable and it is possible that we continue to see a rise in emissions in the 2022 inventory as Hayward and the rest of the country return to full pre-pandemic activities. With that said, the pandemic has provided insight into how impactful reducing transportation emissions can be in reaching long-term emission reduction targets.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
There is no economic impact associated with the completed inventory. However, the information acquired from the inventory provides staff with insight on what needs to be done to meet the City’s GHG reduction goals. Meeting the City’s ambitious GHG reduction goals will require significant investment throughout the community and has the potential to create new local jobs, however some necessary improvements are not currently cost-effective.
FISCAL IMPACT
The 2021 GHG inventory was prepared by City staff and resulted in no cost to the City beyond budgeted staff positions.
STRATEGIC ROADMAP
This agenda item supports the Strategic Priority of Confront Climate Crisis & Champion Environmental Justice. This item is not specifically related to a project identified in the Strategic Roadmap. However, this agenda item does help track progress of projects identified in the Strategic Roadmap, such as:
Reduce Greenhouse Gases and Dependency on Fossil Fuels
Project C1: Implement Year 1 Programs from the adopted GHG Roadmap (Climate Action Plan) Project C4: Continue to transition City facilities from natural gas to electric, with a focus on HVAC systems Mitigate climate crisis impacts through resilient design and community engagement Project C10: Plant 1,500 trees annually, directly and in partnership with community groups Project C14: Continue to pursue water conservation measures like increased recycled water supplies
SUSTAINABILITY FEATURES
Meeting GHG reduction goals is the primary objective of the City’s Climate Action Plan. Meeting the goals will require reducing emissions in every sector and will entail improving energy efficiency in buildings, decarbonizing buildings, increasing the use of renewable energy, and reducing vehicle-related emissions. All these actions will result in cleaner air for Hayward residents and for the region.
NEXT STEPS
Staff will continue to work with EBCE, StopWaste and regional agencies to identify potential opportunities to streamline GHG inventories on a county or regional level, with the goal of maintaining annual reporting.
Prepared by: Nicole Grucky, Sustainability Specialist Erik Pearson, Environmental Services Manager
Recommended by: Alex Ameri, Director of Public Works
Approved by:
_______________________________________________
Kelly McAdoo, City Manager
https://hayward.legistar.com/MeetingDetail.aspx?ID=999218&GUID=2B77D6CD-6AFB-49FC-B7BA-7E7F414EC524&Options=info|&Search= https://www.hayward-ca.gov/services/city-services/climate-action https://sustainableconsumption.usdn.org/climate/cbei-guidebook/cbei-basics