Election Opinion Poll Services
for the City of Hercules
Polling and Strategic Communications Proposal
In.S
PLIT
0 Contacts:
Curtis Below, FM3 Research
Catherine Lew, The Lew Edwards Group
H E
OPINION LEW
FM3 RESEARCH
EDWARDS
RESEARCH & STRATEGY GROUP
October 28, 2021 921-6112
LEW FM3
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October 28, 2021
City Manager Dante Hall
City of Hercules
111 Civic Drive
Hercules, CA 94547
Dear City Manager Hall:
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3 Research or FM3) and the Lew Edwards Group (LEG) are pleased to present this proposal to conduct public opinion research and public communications services for the City of Hercules. Given that FM3 and LEG have collaborated on numerous successful ballot measure projects for the City of Hercules over the past decade, we are submitting a joint proposal for our services. However, the services and associated costs for each firm are presented separately in the event the City wishes to consider them independently or engage in separate contracts. That being said, we feel our joint track record with the City over the past decade speaks for itself and would love the chance to work together as a team on a fourth partnership.
Some of the strengths our firms will bring are presented in more detail in our proposal, but include the following:
• We know your city—and the broader region—well, having worked on several successful ballot measure projects since 2012. In Hercules, this includes Measures O and N (2012), Measure A (2013), Measures B and C (2015), and partial LLAD enactments in 2017, as well as other successful ballot measures for other Contra Costa County clients including the Rodeo-Hercules Fire Protection District; the cities of Antioch, Concord, El Cerrito, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pinole, Pittsburg, Pleasant Hill, and San Ramon; the West Contra Costa Unified School District; the East Bay Regional Park District; the Bay Area Rapid Transit District; and the County of Contra Costa. This allows us to hit the ground running with both a familiarity of issues your community has wrestled with in recent years, as well as a feel for the emerging topics you may wish to explore in this research. • We are proven leaders in helping California local governments pass revenue measures. FM3 has helped local government clients generate hundreds of billions of dollars in local revenue with a 95% success rate and LEG has helped clients generate $39.4 billion with a 95% success rate. • Since our last engagement in 2015, FM3 has developed new survey techniques to increase overall response rates, reflecting a variety of different engagement methods used in modern public opinion research.
LEG is a nationally recognized, award-winning firm in public agency engagement and communications.
Our firms reflect the diversity of California with a consensus-building management style and focused, enthusiastic, and committed dedication to your needs.
Sincerely,
Curtis Belor Gabentew
Curtis Below Catherine Lew
FM3 Partner & COO LEG President
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CONTENTS
1 ABOUT OUR TEAMS 1
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE 4
3 CLIENT REFERENCES ...7
4 STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS …... 8
5 SCOPE OF SERVICES - FM3 ...9
6 SCOPE OF SERVICES - LEG ..12
7 ESTIMATED COSTS ..15
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A FM3 SELECT SLIDES FROM 2015 SURVEY ...17
APPENDIX B LEG DIRECT MAIL AND DIGITAL ADVERTISEMENT WORK SAMPLES... ....20 Page ii
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1 ABOUT OUR TEAMS
1.1 Prior Experience with the City of Hercules
It has been LEG/FM3's honor to have represented the City successfully over nearly a decade in supporting your fiscal sustainability vision (Figure 1). This invaluable success and institutional knowledge means our team can hit the ground running with the benefit of 10 years of experience and success in the City and its unique, dynamic, and diverse community.
Figure 1: FM3 and LEG Past Experience with the City of Hercules In 2012, LEG/FM3 successfully enacted Measures O and N on the June ballot to pass the City's successful ½ cent sales tax measure and secure voter approval of the sale of its Municipal Utility, both strategies designed to stabilize the City's fiscal condition following its declaration of Fiscal Emergency. Our team sprang into action, conducting on-point public opinion research and producing accessible, easy to understand communications materials to inform the community of the City's fiscal condition.
In 2013, LEG/FM3 successfully enacted Measure A to increase the City's UUT rate by 2% in a low turnout Special Election. Following FM3's update of opinion research, LEG created highly effective messaging that uniquely expanded the messengers to include public safety and fiscal accountability leaders to address the community's concerns at the time about the City's management.
In 2015, LEG/FM3 successfully enacted Measures B and C to extend the sales tax and UUT measures simultaneously on the same ballot, following comprehensive polling and outreach programs. In 2017, LEG assisted the City in its effort to achieve LLAD reform citywide and update its LLAD structure (the unique zones were too small to conduct statistically valid polling in). A portion of the City enacted the assessment.
1.2 Short FM3 Refresher
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3 Research or FM3) is a California-based company with 23 fulltime employees located in our Oakland and Los Angeles offices. FM3 has been conducting public policy- oriented opinion research since 1981 on issues of major economic and social concern, such as budgetary issues and taxation, education, constituent satisfaction with public services and support for policy proposals, public safety, parks and open space, transportation, health care, growth and property development, environmental protection, natural resource conservation and development, communications technology, energy development, and organizational branding.
In any given year, FM3 conducts as many as 500 surveys and 160 focus groups (as well as other types of opinion research), which the firm uses to provide strategic insights and advice to its clients. Most importantly, FM3 is a recognized leader in conducting survey research that helps California cities objectively evaluate the viability of passing local ballot measures to secure additional revenue.
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FM3 has worked successfully in over 140 California cities to develop strategies to pass revenue measures, with a success rate of over 95 percent since its 1981 inception - with over 600 local finance measures approved for California agencies in every region of the state-more than any other research firm.
1.3 Short LEG Refresher
LEG is an Oakland-based California corporation co-founded in 1997 by Catherine Lew and Lloyd Edwards. The firm is a Black and woman-owned firm that is a nationally-recognized, award-winning company in providing communications, revenue generation, and strategic services to California public agencies and local governments, having served hundreds of them over the past two decades. In 2016 and 2020, the firm had its biggest years ever, enacting 68 successful measures and campaign projects in each of those two years, with a wide range of strategic client services. LEG has enacted over $39.4 Billion with a 95% enactment rate.
Public agencies constitute more than two-thirds of LEG's practice and our core team of seven professionals have served LEG's client needs for years with expertise that includes media, social media, and Internet communication; coalition building; ballot measure needs; and more.
Experts from LEG are frequently sought after trainers and speakers for the League of California Cities, California Municipal Treasurers Association, California Society of Municipal Finance Officers, Local Government Commission, Institute for Local Governments, Municipal Management Association of Northern California, and others. LEG's direct mail products have been recognized on multiple occasions in the prestigious national Pollie Awards.
1.4 Project Team
Since you are purchasing more than just a research project from FM3 and LEG-but also a partner in your strategic planning and decision-making-clear lines of open communication with our company are critically important.
With that in mind, your primary FM3 contacts will be Curtis Below and Laura Covarrubias, and your primary LEG contacts Catherine Lew and Emily Salgado. (Both Curtis and Catherine were leads for their respective firms on the prior City of Hercules ballot measure projects, coming to this project armed with those experiences and background.) The following are short bios for both Curtis and Catherine. (Bios for other team members can be provided upon request.)
1.4.1 Curtis Below (FM3 Partner & COO)
Partner & COO Curtis Below brought his broad professional experience in the public, nonprofit and private sectors to FM3 Research in 2007. Since joining the firm, he has provided qualitative and quantitative research - and strategic advice - to government agencies, non-profit organizations, businesses, and candidate and ballot measure campaigns at both the state and local levels. Curtis has served as Project Manager for each of FM3's surveys for the City of Hercules since 2012.
During the last several election cycles, Curtis conducted research contributing to the passage of a number of ballot measure campaigns, including California's Prop 1 (a $4 billion housing bond) and Prop 68 (a $4
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billion park and water bond); two significant regional funding measures in the San Francisco Bay Area (a $3.5 billion BART bond measure and a nine-county "Clean & Healthy Bay" parcel tax); a number of local finance measures in the cities of Alameda, Antioch, Cotati, Daly City, East Palo Alto, Half Moon Bay, Los Banos, Martinez, Milpitas, Orinda, Pittsburg, San Jose, San Mateo, Santa Rosa, Scotts Valley, Sunnyvale and Vallejo, and in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Humboldt, Tuolumne, Yuba counties; as well as other local measures for school, fire, and park districts. Curtis also worked on behalf of several successful candidates, including those running for U.S. Congress, the California Legislature, and local county boards of supervisors.
Curtis received his Bachelor's degree in Geography/Environmental Studies from UCLA and both his Master's of Public Policy and Master's of Public Health from UC Berkeley.
1.4.2 Catherine Lew, Esq. (LEG Co-Founder & Principal Consultant) Catherine Lew, Co-Founder and Principal Consultant of The Lew Edwards Group, is a premier consultant in California providing revenue enhancement measure preparation, project management, public sector marketing services and political strategy to cities, counties, special districts, transportation, K-14 education districts, and other public agencies, private sector, and nonprofit clients.
Lew has over 30 years of experience in the communications and political arena. She is a veteran of more than 800 similar projects, specializing in difficult to pass revenue measures. In 2018, she was named by the Sacramento Bee as a California Influencer, joining selected statewide leaders in politics, policy, and government shaping the current election dialogue through the Bee/McClatchy news mediums. Lew has been the Lead Communications Consultant on all successful measures previously represented in Contra Costa County.
Lew prides herself on her firm's excellent service to each LEG client, diverse agencies and organizations that range dramatically in size and scope of strategic needs. She has earned a reputation as one of the State's most effective specialists on behalf of local government.
A graduate of the University of California, Berkeley and the University of San Francisco School of Law, Lew is also a member of the California State Bar, ensuring excellent team collaboration with client city attorneys to ensure that all strategies sponsored by public entities are within the bounds of legal permissibility. If retained as your Consultant, Catherine will function as Lead Strategist with a second member of the firm assigned as Project Manager.
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2 RELEVANT EXPERIENCE
2.1 FM3's Contra Costa County Experience
FM3 has a broad range of experience conducting opinion research in Contra Costa County. FM3 has a full-time office in Oakland, and our staff is very familiar with the attitudes of voters throughout Contra Costa County. The firm's archive of research will help inform and strengthen the research we would conduct on behalf of your City.
In addition, because of our convenient location, FM3 personnel will be readily available to participate in meetings with City staff.
FM3 has an extensive library of research that includes surveys conducted among residents of Contra Costa County for a diverse group of clients, including local finance measure feasibility research conducted on behalf of the cities of Antioch, Martinez, Orinda, Pittsburg, and Hercules; the Rodeo-Hercules Fire Protection District, the West Contra Costa Unified School District, the East Bay Regional Park District, the Bay Area Rapid Transit District, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the Contra Costa Community College District, the Oakland Zoo; and the County of Contra Costa itself. Our other local clients include the City of Concord, the Contra Costa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, the Contra Costa County Mosquito & Vector Control District, the Central Contra Costa Sanitary District, the Dublin San Ramon Services District, Zone 7 Water Agency, the Delta Diablo Sanitation District, and the Port of Oakland, among others.
FM3 also regularly conducts research among Contra Costa County residents and voters for private sector clients including environmental groups such as Resources Legacy Fund and The Sierra Club; labor unions such as IBEW, SEIU and AFSCME; nonprofit healthcare providers such as Sutter Health and Stanford Lucile Packard Children's Hospital; foundations such as The California Endowment, and select corporate clients such as Calpine. FM3's clients in Contra Costa County have also included political candidates and elected officials in local, state and federal offices-from local City Council members to members of the U.S. Congress.
In addition to survey research, FM3 also regularly conducts focus groups in Concord and Walnut Creek on a wide variety of topics. These projects have included research for political candidates, businesses, and local government agencies. The firm conducts an average of 20 to 30 focus groups in Contra Costa County every year.
A listing of FM3's successful local finance measures in Contra Costa County is provided by Figure 2 below.
Figure 2: FM3 Successful Local Finance Measures in Contra Costa County Agency Measure Mechanism Election
County of Contra Costa Measure X ½ Cent Sales Tax November 2020 City of Orinda Measure R 1 Cent Sales Tax Ext. & Incr. November 2020 City of Antioch Measure W 1 Cent Sales Tax Extension November 2018 City of Martinez Measure X ½ Cent Sales Tax November 2018 City of Orinda Measure J Parcel Tax Increase: $39 to $69 June 2018 City of Martinez Measure D ½ Cent Sales Tax November 2016 Rodeo-Hercules Fire Protection District Measure O Parcel Tax: $218 November 2016 City of Pittsburg Measure M ½ Cent Sales Tax Extension June 2016 City of Orinda Measure L $25 Million Bond June 2016
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Agency Measure Mechanism Election
City of Hercules Measure B ½ Cent Sales Tax Extension November 2015 City of Hercules Measure C Utility Users Tax Extension November 2015 City of Orinda Measure J $20 Million Bond June 2014
City of Hercules Measure A Utility Users Tax 2% Increase June 2013 City of Orinda Measure L ½ Cent Sales Tax November 2012 City of Hercules Measure O ½ Cent Sales Tax June 2012
City of Martinez Measure H $30 Million Bond November 2008 City of Orinda Measure E Parcel Tax Increase: $27 to $39 June 2008 City of San Ramon LLAD LLAD Increase June 2006
East Bay Regional Park District Measure CC Parcel Tax: $12 November 2004 West Contra Costa Unified School District Measure D $380 Million Bond March 2002
2.2 LEG's Contra Costa County Experience
Besides the multiple measures enacted for the City of Hercules, LEG has enacted and maintained millions in revenue for other Contra Costa County local government clients (Figure 3).
Figure 3: LEG's Successful Local Government Ballot Measures in Contra Costa County Local Government Entity Ballot Measure Type
City of Antioch Sales Tax Renewal
City of Concord Sales Tax Measures (3)
Contra Costa County CCD General Obligation Bond
City of El Cerrito Sales Tax Measures (3)
Los Medanos Healthcare District Vaintenance of Local Control City of Martinez Sales Tax Measure
Town of Moraga Sales Tax Measure
City of Pinole Sales Tax Measure
City of Pleasant Hill Sales Tax Measure
Rodeo Hercules Fire Protection District Parcel Tax Measure City of San Ramon Landscape & Lighting Assessment
Additionally, LEG has led national and groundbreaking communications projects and advisory services for:
• West Contra Costa County Integrated Waste Management Authority (innovative Earth Day) • City of Richmond (national media on Federal designation of Rosie the Riveter Park) • City of Walnut Creek (advisory fiscal planning)
2.3 Work on UUTs, RPTTs, and Charter City Measures
In addition to our work specifically for the City of Hercules-and with other local government agencies in Contra Costa County-both FM3 and LEG have helped local government agencies with dozens of utility users tax, real property transfer tax, and charter measures, and in some cases multiple measures for the same agency.
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Figure 4: FM3 & LEG Successful UUT, RPTT and Charter Ballot Measure Clients Local Government Entity UTT/RPTT/Charter FM3/LEG
City of Alameda UUT/RPTT FM3
City of Bellflower UUT FM3/LEG
City of Canyon Lake UUT FM3/LEG
City of Cathedral City UUT/Charter FM3/LEG
City of Carson FM3
City of Cloverdale FM3/LEG
City of Coachella FM3
City of Desert Hot Springs FM3/LEG
City of Dinuba FM3/LEG
City of Elk Grove LEG
City of Emeryville LEG
City of Gardena FM3/LEG
City of Grover Beach LEG
City of Hercules FM3/LEG
LEG
City of Huntington Beach FM3/LEG
City of Indio FM3/LEG
City of Inglewood FM3/LEG
City of La Habra FM3/LEG
City of Lakewood FM3
City of Lawndale LEG
City of Los Angeles FM3
LEG
City of Norwalk FM3/LEG
City of Paramount LEG
City of Pasadena UUT LEG
City of Pinole UUT LEG
City of Redondo Beach UUT FM3/LEG
City of Sacramento UUT FM3
City & County of San Francisco RPTT FM3
City of San Jose UUT/RPTT FM3
City of San Leandro RPTT LEG
City of Santa Barbara UUT FM3
City of Santa Cruz UUT LEG
City of Santa Fe Springs UUT FM3/LEG
City of Santa Monica UUT FM3/LEG
City of Seal Beach UUT LEG
City of Seaside UUT
LEG
City of South Pasadena UUT FM3/LEG
City of Stockton UUT LEG
City of Sunnyvale UUT FM3
City of Torrance UUT LEG
City of Vallejo UUT FM3/LEG
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3 CLIENT REFERENCES
FM3 and LEG have worked together on successful ballot measure projects for the following three cities (among others): Antioch, Martinez, and Cathedral City. We feel that these three projects are either similar in nature to the research you wish to conduct and/or are similar communities in other factors. Please feel free to reach out to them if you want to learn a bit more about what it is like to work with the FM3/LEG Team! City of Antioch
Ron Bernal
ANTIOCH City Manager
CALIFORNIA (925) 779-7011
[email protected]
In 2018, LEG/FM3 enacted a sales tax increase/renewal following two on-point baseline and tracking community surveys, and significant public outreach that engaged hundreds of residents.
City of Martinez
MARTINEZ Brad Kilger
CITY
(Former) City Manager
(Currently at Sloan, Sakai, Yeung & Wong LLP)
(916) 258-8800
1876<* [email protected]
Former Martinez City Manager Brad Kilger has been a long-term client of LEG/FM3's through revenue ballot measure services provided to his former cities of Benicia, Ceres, and South Lake Tahoe.
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City of Cathedral City
Charles McClendon
City Manager
(760) 770-0387
Cathedral City [email protected]
The City of Cathedral City has been a joint LEG/FM3 client for over 15 years with multiple successful revenue measures to support the City's long term fiscal sustainability vision, including a successful Charter City measure enacted in 2016.
4 STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
The City's RFP suggests that it is open to election timing in either or both of 2022 and/or 2024. Keeping your options open and flexible pending input from the public is important, given the unique dynamics of both measures, the currently polarized anti-government environment, and stakeholder viewpoints. Consider this:
1. As we have found in our past collaborations with you, a properly presented UUT renewal could very well be a more straightforward measure. The upcoming renewal is a good opportunity to assess the public's views on the duration and rate of this measure.
2. Placing the UUT on the same ballot as a potential Charter/RPTT may or may not be feasible, given traditional voter fears in other communities about what it means to convert to a Charter City and industry viewpoints on RPTT. Our team has successfully enacted Charter City measures by providing accessible, straightforward information about the implications of these measures, and passed RPTT measures with industry opposition/six-figure fundraising in opposition to RPTTs. However, should that level of dissonance arise in your City, it may not be prudent to have the more straightforward UUT renewal on the ballot at the same time.
These factors speak to the need for careful, methodical assessment to determine the appropriate election timing for both, and whether the public and key stakeholders are supportive of considering the entire package during one election, or whether a sequenced (2022 and 2024) approach is advisable. While much of this can be assessed with survey research, outreach with key stakeholders and other community groups will also be important inputs.
Finally, a reminder that traditionally, the City's public values the role of the Hercules Citizens Finance Advisory Committee, and the City's ongoing Fiscal Accountability, both components of which have been prominently featured in past efforts.
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5 SCOPE OF SERVICES - FM3
For this project, FM3 recommends conducting what we call a "dual-mode voter survey" among likely November 2024 voters in the City of Hercules. This methodology enables us to collect opinions from a sample of voters reflective of both the projected November 2024 and November 2022 electorates. Furthermore, by employing three different contact methods (telephone calls, email invitations, and text invitations) and two different data collection modes (telephone and online interviews), this approach provides a wide range of ways for voters to participate in the survey.
We approach conducting these surveys in three phases—research design, data collection, and data analysis and reporting-which we describe in more detail in the following sections.
5.1 Phase 1 - Research Design
5.1.1 Sample Preparation
FM3 will construct a sample by randomly selecting stratified clusters of voters likely to participate in the targeted election. (Each cluster will have voters sharing common characteristics, so that completing one interview in each cluster will result in a representative sample.) We base those models upon past individual vote histories, as well as historical turnout in similar elections and FM3's best estimates for future turnout. And, since the City is considering two different elections for the charter measure, FM3 will draw its sample from the higher-turnout November 2024 election with the ability to look at a subset of those voters likely to vote in the lower-turnout November 2022 election. These voter samples include telephone numbers and email addresses, allowing FM3 to analyze the sample and select which contact method to use for each voter.
While FM3 is acquiring and preparing the sample, we will also establish demographic and geographic quotas of the electorate using a combination of information directly from the voter file (e.g., age, party registration, etc.), as well as other demographic information overlayed on the voter file from other sources and estimations (e.g., ethnicity/race, education, etc.). While the stratified clusters will help ensure a representative sample, FM3 has found it beneficial to take into consideration other demographic factors when establishing quotas for use during the data collection phase-and after the interviews are completed-to ensure the final sample reflects the modeled electorate.
5.1.2 Questionnaire Design
During our kick-off call/meeting, we will review the City's goals, past research findings, and any relevant background materials provided to us. This meeting will provide an opportunity for an extensive review of relevant background information and context, as well as a detailed discussion of your objectives for the project and desired timeline.
After a project's kick-off meeting, FM3 drafts and circulates the survey questionnaire prior to conducting a survey review call with the client team. We typically go through several iterations of the survey questionnaire (sometimes on full team calls, sometimes with smaller groups, sometimes via email, etc. depending upon the questionnaire complexity and client needs) to ensure the instrument will achieve the project's objectives, contains accurate information, will not take too long to complete, and meets any necessary legal requirements. Before moving to
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the data collection phase, FM3 requires that all survey questionnaires are signed-off as "final" by a client representative—which for ballot measure surveys must also involve sign-off by the City Attorney's Office-before being sent off for programming and any necessary translation. (This legal review is necessary specifically for any hypothetical 75-word ballot questions tested in the survey.)
5.1.3 Contact Method Preparation
Because subsets of the sample will be invited to take the survey online, FM3 will create initial drafts of email and text invitations for your review. Both email and text invitations will be tied to a specific voter, so that a respondent cannot ask other voters (or nonvoters) to also take the survey, potentially compromising the sample. (Email and text invitations will contain a unique link.) Additionally, to elevate comfort levels in taking the survey, we recommend the invitations include your City's actual electronic seal or logo, with a note explaining that the City has hired an independent public opinion research firm to conduct a survey about local issues that are relevant to its residents, and electronically "signed" by a senior official. (We have done this in the past for the City.) Telephone interviewers will also be prepped and thoroughly trained in the survey questionnaire's structure and design, as well as in any unique or unfamiliar pronunciations.
5.2 Phase 2 - Data Collection
5.2.1 Online Interviews
Based upon the final sample specifications, FM3 will set a target number of interviews to be completed online and construct an estimate of how many of those respondents will likely take the survey online after receiving either an email or postcard invitation. Depending upon response rates, we may also send out reminder emails and texts to recipients who have not yet taken the survey, or new email and text invitations to additional voters in the sample. And given the size of Hercules' electorate, we will likely send 1-2 reminder invitations.
5.2.1.1 Telephone Interviews
Within a few days of the initial distribution of email and text invitations, FM3 will analyze the completed clusters, and compare the demographic and geographic characteristics of the online completes with the demographic and geographic profile of our modeled electorate. Next, we will begin conducting telephone interviews to fill unfilled clusters and balance-out the sample, targeting underrepresented subgroups. (In many communities, those who opt to take a survey online tend to be more affluent than the broader population, and typically have higher levels of education.) The telephone interviews are completed-and the online survey closed-when both the overall target number of interviews is reached, and the demographic and geographic quotas/sample clusters have been sufficiently filled.
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Figure 5: Dual-mode Voter Survey Data Collection
FM3 identifies and models the overall voter universe.
FM3 pulls a random sample of stratified clusters of
likely voters; each cluster contains voters with
similar demographic/geographic characteristics.
FM3 emails those with email addresses
and texts those with cell phones,
inviting them to take the online survey.
FM3 identifies which clusters
have completed online interviews.
FM3 completes telephone interviews with
voters in the remaining clusters to ensure
a representative sample of likely voters.
5.2.2 Data Checking and Verification
As previously noted, throughout the data collection phase, researchers and statistical analysts assigned to your project will review responses daily to ensure data and sample integrity, and that survey questions are "working." If necessary, FM3 will bring to your attention any questions that appear to be generating confused responses and suggest potential questionnaire modifications to address those issues.
5.3 Phase 3 - Data Analysis and Reporting
5.3.1 Data Analysis
All survey responses will be analyzed by FM3's Data Processing and Analysis Department staff using customized installations of Survey System and SAS software, both well-documented and widely used data-analysis software packages. Any open-ended responses will be further reviewed, coded, and grouped into thematic categories.
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Within one to two days after interviewing has been completed, the preliminary, draft topline survey results and cross-tabulated results will be generated for LEG's and FM3's review and our initial analysis will begin. (The cross- tabulated results will make it possible to detect how responses differ, if at all, among various subsets of the sample. For example, it will be possible to compare answers provided by men and women; voters of various age categories and income levels; responses based on ethnicity/race, etc.)
5.3.2 Reporting and Deliverables
FM3 will present our preliminary survey findings-along with LEG's strategic recommendations —in a PowerPoint presentation to City staff. These results are typically presented in draft format to the client team-either in- person or via webinar-and further refined based upon feedback from that group. A final version of this presentation will be developed in a format suitable for FM3 to either present to the City Council or otherwise distribute to the general public, depending upon the City's wishes.
For engagements such as this, FM3 considers the final public PowerPoint presentation our final deliverable, though it is often accompanied by a memo summarizing the key findings in a more concise manner. The RFP also calls for a written report. Of course, if the City desires additional deliverables beyond the final PowerPoint presentation and summary memo, FM3 can generate a formal written report for an additional cost. (Most of our clients find the presentation and supplementary memos to be sufficient for decision making and public communications.)
Finally, after FM3's final deliverables have been completed, we will remain available to answer follow-up questions and to present results to additional key stakeholders. We view the responses to the survey as an ongoing data resource; if needed, FM3 can conduct further analysis to provide answers to any follow-up questions that may arise.
6 SCOPE OF SERVICES - LEG
LEG's services can be summarized as follows:
3. Provide Lead Project Coordination
4. Engage stakeholders around the City's Fiscal Sustainability Vision
5. Develop Strategic Plan, recommend ongoing Communications throughout the process
6. Assist with Ballot Measure Development/s if viable to proceed and conceive permissible post-Measure Communications
6.1 Lead Project Services
LEG continues to pride itself on a supportive, team building approach with consistently scheduled planning sessions. With the input of all participants, LEG will develop meeting agendas and facilitate sessions to support the timely deployment of key project activities. The following are the core issues and agenda topics covered in a LEG-led launch:
• Overall project timeline and how our respective disciplines should be coordinated on the City's behalf;
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• Current City demographics and the effects of all-mail ballot elections on measure viability, something that is new to the City;
• The history of stakeholder views and opinions on the City's desired approaches and ways to build teamwork and consensus; and
• LEG Best Practices in both of the types of measures contemplated by the City, including how to address significant voter concerns on Charter Review Measures and industry opposition to RPTTs.
6.2 Other LEG Services
• Helping to navigate dynamic, evolving project needs and supporting City staff and other professionals in achieving a well-coordinated effort;
• Collaborating closely with FM3 on public opinion research needs and providing Strategic Recommendations and a Communications/Preparation Plan;
• Creating strategies to continue to build on our past Hercules stakeholder and community engagement; • Continuously updating and refining a Project Timeline, Activities, and Budget; • Recommending a permissible public education program to inform the public of the City's Fiscal Sustainability vision;
• Training current City staff on informational outreach message delivery, including how to respond to a variety of public and stakeholder questions, comments, or concerns; • Developing earned/social media/web-based strategy and content for informational collaterals; • Providing Rapid Response services to support the City's PIO (without exception LEG does not function as a paid spokesperson for its clients); and
• Adding value to staff reports to the City Council.
LEG approaches its partnership and Lead Consultant role with personal dedication, enthusiasm, and a commitment to excellent service, recognizing that our ultimate consumer is not only the City of Hercules, but most importantly, the constituents and stakeholders the City represents.
6.3 Public Engagement
Following assessment of the City's updated FM3-led opinion research, LEG will develop Strategic Recommendations and a plan. Consistent with our past practices, LEG will assist the City in developing copy for appropriate communications materials, copy for links on the City website, a PowerPoint Presentation for informational or online Speakers' Bureau, Stakeholder, Key Influential and community presentations.
6.4 Message Development
Our project collaboration will have the goal of informing the public and raising awareness of the City's current quality of life vision and fiscal sustainability needs. "Message discipline" and a clear, concise focus are critical to project viability, and effective outreach efforts.
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6.5 Direct Mail/Social Media/Digital Media
LEG continues to recommend a multi-faceted communications plan that will allow the City to raise awareness of city needs beyond stakeholders and key influentials, to a broader public. Your City's existing communications vehicles, such as your website, social media, and a Speakers' Bureau program (whether online or in-person) will all be utilized.
As in our past collaborations, LEG will assist in drafting information or adding value for social media and advise the City on how to navigate independent or third party sites such as blogs or Nextdoor.
Since 2016, LEG clients have expanded their permissible digital media reach and communications, which the City will need to do in 2022 through the use of paid digital media. Since the advent of COVID, more people are getting their information online. It will be necessary for the City to utilize paid digital as part of your informational communications toolkit. Please note this is different from boosting social media posts but is messaging that follows your target audience to the online sites they visit.
6.6 Supporting Media Response and Maximizing Media Opportunities LEG will review earned (non-paid) media press opportunities with the City PIO. Balanced press coverage will build additional community and business stakeholder engagement throughout the process, which is critical to informing your public about your needs. While LEG does not function as a spokesperson, we can support the City's communications efforts by developing additional collaterals such as project-related press releases, media backgrounders, talking and rapid response needs, as necessary.
6.7 Ballot Measure Development and Post-Placement Communications Should the City's potential ballot measure/s be viable, LEG will collaborate with the City Attorney, City Clerk, and staff on ballot measure structure and wording to address the public's and stakeholders' interests and priorities.
LEG will collaborate closely with the City Attorney's Office to refine the ballot question and add value to other ballot measure components so that they are understandable to the average person. This addresses specific documents such as the measure ordinance/s, ballot question/s, city resolution/s, and staff report/s to ensure that all voter handbook and related materials are understandable to the average person, not just lawyers.
Following placement of the measure/s on the ballot, LEG will recommend a Public Education approach that includes materials that address generational ways of receiving information. Towards this end, USPS mailings are still one component of a multi-disciplinary, cross-generational communications toolkit. LEG strongly advises an appropriate spectrum of communications, including paid digital. The City Attorney will review all recommended content including printed material and online copy.
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7 ESTIMATED COSTS
7.1 FM3's Survey Specifications and Estimated Costs
The following is a summary of the research specifications FM3 is proposing for this project, including relevant rationales for our recommendations, where applicable, and estimated costs. Additionally, for some of these specifications, we are presenting a range of options for your consideration, based upon project goals and budget.
Research A dual-mode voter survey with online and telephone interviews, including email and text Methodology invitations to the online survey and telephone calls Sample We anticipate completing 300-400 interviews with likely November 2024 voters. Our past surveys for Hercules were all conducted exclusively via telephone and yielded declining numbers of interviews: 400 in 2012, 361 in 2013, and 245 in 2015. We feel that our new dual-mode approach will allow us to once again complete 300-400 interviews.
Margin of +5.7% for a sample of 300 interviews
Sampling Error* 14.9% for a sample of 400 interviews
*At the 95% confidence level (i.e., in 95 out of 100 cases) Questionnaire 15-20 minutes long
Language Online interviews will be offered in English, as we have seen extremely low response rates to online surveys in languages besides English. However, we recommend offering telephone interviews in English and Spanish, given Hercules' demographics. The City may also wish to offer interviews in Tagalog, and we have provided optional costs.
Estimated Costs Figure 6 contains the total estimated costs for a survey conducted with these specifications.
These prices are comprehensive, and include all costs for questionnaire design, sample acquisition and preparation, Spanish translation, programming, email, text and postcard invitations, survey hosting, telephone interviewing, data entry and analysis, and reporting.
Furthermore, they are discounted to reflect FM3's history with the City of Hercules.
Figure 6: Estimated Survey Costs (English and Spanish)
Number of Interviews
Survey Length
300 400
15 minutes $25,750 $28,500
20 minutes $28,250 $31,500
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FM3 typically submits a single PDF invoice to our clients via email upon completion of our research projects, rather than monthly or other periodic invoices. And given that variations in our survey costs are primarily driven by research specifications (e.g., survey length, number of interviews, survey methodology, interview languages, etc.) and not staff time, we do not itemize our invoices or break out hourly rates; rather, we include the final research specifications in our invoices. (This was our practice for prior engagements with the City, too.)
7.2 LEG's Estimated Costs
LEG's professional consulting fees are $6,000 per month. Without exception-and consistent with our previous collaborations —LEG does not invoice or track work on an hourly or time and materials basis.
Professional fees do not include hard project costs such as:
• Graphic design, printing, or postage for any mailed materials • Paid digital media costs are not included, as those services are performed by highly specialized vendors. • Any additional legal costs necessary, or the County Registrar's election cost invoice.
7.3 Phase 1 Estimated Costs for a Two-Firm Team
Assuming Phase 1 includes one survey from FM3 and two months of LEG's engagement, Phase 1's total costs would range from $37,750 to $43,500. Again, for this cost, the City receives the benefit of both LEG and FM3 from the initiation of efforts, which has been the protocol in our past successful engagements with you.
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APPENDIX A
FM3 SELECT SLIDES FROM 2015 SURVEY
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The general mood in the City has improved
dramatically over the past several years.
Would ou say that hing su te hy of thes are sterly ne red in the ist. a Right direction & Mixed/DK/NA s Wrong track
2015 63% 16% 21%
2013 41% 23% 36%
2012 31% 24% 45%
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
40% 60% 50%
SEE IF THESE COMMUNITY
ATTITUDES FROM 2015
HAVE CHANGED.
Concerns are greatest regarding City budget UNDOUBTEDLY, THEY WILL shortfalls, but few issues are seen as urgent. HAVE, SINCE SO MUCH HAS #Ext Ser Prob Very Ser Froß #Sment Ser Prob #Not Too Ser Prob iDKNA HAPPENED SINCE 2015! Ext./Very
Ser. Prob.
Budget shortfalls m Hercules City
government 21% 32% 30% 8% 8% 53%
The growing number of illegal manjuana
growhouses 22% 24% 20% 22% 13% 45%
The condition of the local economy 17% 27% 34% 19% 44%
Waste and inefficiency in City government 20% 23% 33% 13% 11% 43% A lack of transparencyin City government 18% 25% 35% 14% 3% 42% Not enaugh neighborhood police officers 16% 23% 30% 28% 39% oo much cronyism and nepotism in Cit 16% 19% 25% 23%
Jovernmer 16% 36%
20% 40% 60% 80%
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MEASURE B (NOVEMBER 2015) SALES TAX CONTINUATION - 75% "YES" MEASURE C (NOVEMBER 2015) UUT CONTINUATION - 72% "YES"
Support is strong for both continuation measures,
and well above their majority vote thresholds.
Likely November 2015 Voters
UUT Renewal Sales Tax Renewal
Definitely yes 36% 42% Total
Total
Probably yes | 33% Yes 30% Yes
2% 71% 0% | 72%
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no 2% Total 2% Total
Probably no 8% • No 9% No
11% ) 21% 13% 24%
Definitely no
Undecided 8% _ 4%
20% 60%
108
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APPENDIX B
LEG DIRECT MAIL AND DIGITAL ADVERTISEMENT WORK SAMPLES
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IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM
Your Citizen Watchdogs
Dear Fellow Residents:
We serve as volunteers on the
citizen committees that oversee
our City's finances. Just like
you. we are concered about our
communty and want to make
it a better place.
citizen commitices were established to act as watchdogs to our community's Alter the past corruption and fiscal mismanagement our City endured, our finances and make sure funds are spent in a responsible manner. towards the scivices you expect and desire.
Despite cutting 40% of the City's workforce, slashing salaries and benefits for remaining employees, cancelling all City special events. and reducing many basic services, without additional funds. we will need to cut another $1.2 million from the City budget this June - which will likely mean dissolving our local Police Department and contracting out public safcty services to the County.
That is why it is critical for the community to review the facts on Measure A. Measure A will help protect and maintain the essential City services that make our community a safe place to live, while maintaining local control over our Hercules Police Department.
Measure A. please visit the City's wehsite (www.ci.hercules.ca.us). and review The Hercules Special Election is on Tuesday, June 4. For more information on the excerpted official Measure A Impartial Analysis on the back of this mailing.
Thank you,
City of Hercules
VdelaVea
1ll Civic Drive
PAID
Hercules, CA 94547
Virgil de la Vega
Chair of the Citizens Finance Advisory Commitce
Excerpts from Official
Impartial Analysis on Measure A
...A "yes" vote on this measure would approve a temporary five year, 2% increase in the UUT, and would update the definitions for various utilities to take into account changes in the taw and technology... The proposed 2% increase would automatically expire five years from its effective date...
...A "no" vote on this measure would leave the existing UUT at its existing rate ...
If there is no increase in the UUT, based on current budget and revenue projections, the City Council would have to make cuts in coming budgets to City programs, services or projects, including but not limited to policing and public safety Fiscal Protections in Measure A
V Meaxure A requires that all funds are used locally for Hercules services.
V Measure A requires independent financial audits to ensure funds are spent properly.
V Measure A requires oversight of all funds by an Independent Citizen's Committee.
Maintaining
our local Hercules HERCULES
POLICE
Police Department
is a priority
for the City
under Measure A.
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ATTENTION: EMERYVILLE VOTERS
YOUR BALLOT HAS TWO CITY MEASURES
OFFICIAL BALLOT QUESTIONS
Measure U
The Chance loceriter are fun stop send sell ser meryan. Yes No
by the voters.
Measure V
To ensure funding to maintain essential city services such as: police. Yes fire and emergency services protection: street, park and open space development and maintenance: bike and pedestrian safety; child care and programs for youth and seniors, shall the City of Emeryville Jk adopt a Real Property Transfer Tax paid only by buyers and sellers No of property at the time of sale with all funds benefiting Emeryville! For more information, please visit www.emeryville.org
PRSKT STD
US POSTACE
CITY OF EMERYVILLE FAID
1333 Park Avenue ADMAIL.
OFFICIAL EMERYVILLE VOTING INFORMATION
/ Recent state action resulted in a loss of $30 million - roughly half of Emeryvil's budget. Measures U and V would create a guaranteed sourc of local funding for police & fire services, storm drain improvements maintenance, 9-I-I nesponse times, bike and pedestrian facilities, and other community services.
Measure U, if enacted, would make Emeryville a Charter City. Son ies in California are organized under general laws of the State, wh others - such as Berkeley, Albany, Piedmont, and Alameda - are governed by a charter.
/ Measure V, if enacted, would allow Emeryville to place a one-time tax on the sale of property in Emeryville paid only by buyers/sellers.
Measure V will only become official if both Measure U and V are approved by the voters.
REMEMBER TO VOTE NOVEMBER 4
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SAFER BETTER L HEALTHIER
JOIN THE CONVERSATION
SUPPORTING SOUTH LAKE TAHOE Paid for by the City of South Lake Tahoe • CITY OF
LEARN MORE SOUTH LAKE TAHOE
www.cityofsit.us/joinTheConversacion
KEEP MOORPARK'S STREETS AND PARKS MAINTAINED
JOIN THE CONVERSATION
#TellMeMoor
moorparkca.gov/JoinTheConversation Paid for by the
City of Moorpark
LAKEWOOD MEASURE L
Learn about Measure L
on the March 3 local
ballot, and new LA
County voting
system changes. I VOTED
Paid for by
****
CITY OF
LAKEWOOD
Learn about Measures X and Y
CORONA ELECTION on your November 3 ballot.
INFORMATION LEARN MORE!