From: Thomas Stapleton
To: Thomas Stapleton
Subject: Budget Update---JAN 8th, 2024
Date: Monday, January 8, 2024 6:30:51 AM
Friends---Members will return this Tuesday the 9th from the Holiday break.
Caucus meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday that will chart the path forward.
There are rumblings of a minibus of the 4 appropriations bills that expire on Jan 19, although it is unclear if there is enough time to wrap those bills before the 19th (note that one of the bills that expires on January 19 is Agriculture, so maybe a 3-bill minibus and a CR for agriculture or some version of that). For the moment this puts everything on track for a somewhat reasonable finish for appropriations in the next 45 days. It is sure to be an interesting few months….V/R TJ
Spending Deal
Yesterday negotiators announced a spending deal. Details of the deal:
Total spending of $1.59T.
Defense (to include MILCON, NNSA, USACE, etc.): $886B (~3% increase over FY’2023);
Non-Defense: $773B (~1% increase over FY’2023).
If you add $886B and $773B it adds up to $1,659B (not $1,590B) which is $60B more than the total above. Both sides gave in some and produced a $60B increase in domestic spending offset by various other things.
Republicans are claiming a $30B savings as the total deal cut by Kevin McCarthy in June 2023 was for $1.7T. Democrats, however, got an extra $60B over the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA). Below is some of the accounting:
$6 billion rescission in unspent pandemic aid;
$20 billion rescission of IRS funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA);
$12.5 billion designated as “emergency” and therefore exempt from spending caps;
$15 billion in “CHIMP’d” funds (CHIMP = Change in Mandatory Program, or a reduction in mandatory programs that then gets spent in the underlying appropriations bills);
No this does not equal $60B. Another $8B in smaller cats-and-dogs stuff gets to $60 billion.
People around the city are celebrating this as a breakthrough--and it is.
This allows for negotiations over the underlying 12 appropriations bills to begin. However, not everything is done.
Among some of the items to note:
The House Freedom Caucus will oppose the deal. There are still ways to throw sand in the gears.
Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) announced his support for the deal. A Floor Vote means Democrats will likely provide the votes to pass the deal.
Some appropriations bills are in better shape than others. Of note, Agriculture Appropriations has major problems.
The FRA mandates a 1% across-the-board cut if all appropriations bills are not signed into law by the end of April 2024. It is unclear if this would apply if some appropriations bills are completed and others are not. So, for example, if 11 bills were completed and 1 were not, then would the 1% cut apply to only the lone incomplete bill, or to all 12 bills regardless of status? The FRA language is vague on this. Expect a fight if one or more of the bills is unfinished.
Regardless, passage of the major appropriations bills (Defense, TTHUD, Labor-H, etc) appears ever more likely.