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Figure H‐50. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 49
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Figure H‐51. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 50
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Figure H‐52. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 51
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Figure H‐53. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 52
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Figure H‐54. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 53
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Figure H‐55. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 54
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Figure H‐56. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 55
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Figure H‐57. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 56
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Figure H‐58. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 57
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Figure H‐59. Link‐Node Analysis Network – Grid 58
APPENDIX J
Evacuation Sensitivity Studies
“What‐if” Scenarios
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J. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES
This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses, or “what‐if” analyses. These analyses are designed to identify the sensitivity of the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) to changes in some base evacuation conditions.
J.1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Times
A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changesin the estimated trip generation (mobilization) time influence the ETE for an evacuation of all EMZs (Region R28). Specifically, if the tail of the mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who responded most slowly to the evacuation order, could be persuaded to respond much more rapidly) or if the tail were elongated (i.e., spreading out the departure of evacuees to limit the demand during peak times), how would the ETE be affected? These “what if” scenarios were considered for a Summer, Midweek, Midday with normal conditions. Results are tabulated in Table J‐1. Trip Generation times of 2 hours and 30 minutes, 4 hours and 30 minutes and 5 hours and 30 minutes were tested.
As seen shown in Table J‐1, if evacuees mobilize in one less hour or take an additional hour, the 90th and 100th percentile ETE remains unchanged. As discussed in Section 7, congestion exists within the EMZs for approximately 4 hours and 30 minutes after the advisory to evacuate. As such, the ETE is not dictated by the trip generation time, but by the time needed to clear the congestion within the EMZ. Alternatively, when evacuees take an additional two hours to mobilize (well beyond when congestion clears), the ETE at the 100th percentile is dictated by the trip generation time (plus a 5‐minute travel time to the EMZ boundary).
J.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE due to changes in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region beyond the ridge line, see Figure G‐29. The case considered was Scenario 1, Region R28; a summer, midweek, midday, with normal conditions. The movement of people in the Shadow Region has the potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region. Refer to Sections 3.2 and 7.1 for additional information on population within the Shadow Region. Shadow evacuation percentages of 25, 50, and 100 were tested.
Table J‐2 presents the ETE for each of the cases considered. The results show that increasing the shadow population to 25 percent does not show a change at the 90th and the 100th percentile ETE.
Increasing the shadow evacuation to 50%, increases the ETE by 10 minutes for the 90th percentile and 5 minutes for the 100th percentile – not a significant change. A full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases both the 90th and the 100th percentile ETE by 1 hour and 5 minutes – significant changes.
The Shadow Region includes the cities of Newport Beach to the north and the Laguna Niguel and Dana Point to the southeast of Laguna Beach, all densely populated areas. Therefore, any change in City of Laguna Beach J‐2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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percentage of people that decide to voluntarily evacuate will affect the available capacity of the major evacuation routes leaving Laguna Beach. An increase in shadow evacuees will increase congestion, delay the egress of the EMZ evacuees, and prolong ETE.
J.3 Effect of Reducing the Evacuation Demand – One Vehicle per Household The relationship between supply and demand is very important in computing evacuation time.
Evacuation travel supply is the ability of the roadway network to serve the traffic demand (number of evacuating vehicles) during an emergency. In this context, when the demand exceeds the supply (available capacity), congestion occurs causing delay and prolonging the evacuation.
The roadway capacity is often difficult to increase as its expensive and difficult to widen existing infrastructure or build additional roadways. Thus, it is good practice to attempt reduce the evacuating traffic demand such that demand does not exceed capacity. The demographic survey of the EMZs indicated residents would use approximately 1.64 vehicles per household during an evacuation (see Appendix F). A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE when the evacuating vehicles per household was reduced to one.
As seen in Table J‐3, during the base case scenario, there are 17,571 evacuating residential vehicles inside the EMZ (see Table 3‐4). When the number of evacuation vehicles per household is reduced to one, the number of evacuating residential vehicles is reduced to 10,705 – an approximately 40% reduction in traffic demand. The case considered was Scenario 1, Region R28; a summer, midweek, midday, with normal conditions and an evacuation of all EMZs. When the evacuee traffic demand is reduced by approximately 40%, the 90th percentile ETE is reduced by 1 hour and the 100th percentile ETE is reduced by 1 hour and 15 minutes. The 100th percentile ETE is now dictated by trip generation time (plus a 5‐minute travel time to the EMZ boundary) and no longer is dictated by congestion. Effortsshould be made to inform the general population that reducing the number of vehicles each household uses during an evacuation can greatly reduce the amount of time needed to evacuate the area.
J.4 Effect of Direction of Wildfire Approach
Depending on the origin and prevailing winds, a wildfire can block one or more egress routes out of the EMZs. Alternatively, emergency officials could decide to reserve egress routes for first responders and emergency vehicles and only use SR‐1 northbound or southbound for evacuees.
Four cases were run to simulate various roadway closure cases:
1. A scenario where SR‐133 northbound is closed,
2. SR‐133 northbound and SR‐73 in both directions between SR‐133 and I‐405 are closed,
3. SR‐133 northbound and SR‐1 northbound are closed, and
4. SR‐133 northbound and SR‐1 southbound are closed.
These four cases were run for all scenarios for Regions R26 ‐ R30, as shown in Table J‐4 through Table J‐11.
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J.4.1 Closure of SR‐133
Table J‐4 and Table J‐5 represent the 90th and 100th percentile ETE results when EMZ evacuees are unable to utilize SR‐133 northbound. This case was run to represent a wildfire event that is in Laguna Coast Wilderness Park and evacuation to the north along SR‐133 is not feasible. The road closure is located such that all evacuees south of SR‐73 are forced to travel into downtown Laguna beach and then evacuate along SR‐1 towards Dana Point or Newport Beach.
The 90th percentile ETE ranges between 2:25 (Hours:Minutes) and 4:40 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30. The 100th percentile ETE ranges between 3:35 (Hours:Minutes) and 5:20 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30.
When comparing the results of Table J‐4 to Table 7‐1, it can be seen that the 90th percentile ETE increases by as much as 55 minutes. When comparing Table J‐5 and Table 7‐2, the 100th percentile ETE increases by as much as 40 minutes. During the base case (summer midweek midday, normal conditions scenario of an evacuation of all EMZs) scenario, approximately 4,900 vehicles utilize SR‐133 northbound to exit the EMZs. These vehicles are forced to reroute to SR‐ 1, which is already oversaturated, when SR‐133 is closed. As a result, congestion within the EMZ worsens, delays increase, and ETE increases.
J.4.2 Closure of SR‐133 and SR‐73
Table J‐6 and Table J‐7 represent the 90th and 100th percentile ETE results when EMZ evacuees are unable to utilize SR‐133 northbound and SR‐73 in both directions between SR‐133 and Interstate 405 (I‐405). This case was run to represent a wildfire event that is in Laguna Coast Wilderness Park and evacuation to the north along SR‐133 and along SR‐73 (in either direction) is not feasible. The road closure is located such that all evacuees south of SR‐73 are forced to travel into downtown Laguna beach and then evacuate along SR‐1 towards Dana Point or Newport Beach. For this case, it was assumed that the ramps that lead to SR‐73 between SR‐133 and I‐405 are closed.
The 90th percentile ETE ranges between 2:35 (Hours:Minutes) and 4:50 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30. The 100th percentile ETE ranges between 3:35 (Hours:Minutes) and 5:45 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30.
When comparing the results of Table J‐6 to Table 7‐1 and Table J‐7 and Table 7‐2, it can be seen that the 90th and 100th percentile ETE increase by as much as 1 hour and 20 minutes each. During the base case (summer midweek midday, normal conditions scenario of an evacuation of all EMZs) scenario, approximately 4,900 vehicles utilize SR‐133 northbound to exit the EMZs. These vehicles are forced to reroute to SR‐1, which is already oversaturated, when SR‐133 is closed. In addition, over 9,000 vehicles utilize SR‐73 westbound and over 3,000 vehicles utilize SR‐73 eastbound. These vehicles are forced to reroute to I‐405 or SR‐1 to reach the same destination.
As a result, congestion within the study area worsens, delays increase, and ETE increases.
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J.4.3 Closure of SR‐133 and SR‐1 Northbound
Table J‐8 and Table J‐9 represent the 90th and 100th percentile ETE results when EMZ are forced to evacuate southbound toward Dana Point along SR‐1 southbound. This case was run to represent a wildfire event that is near Laguna Coast Wilderness Park and Crystal Cove State Park and evacuation to the north along SR‐1 and SR‐133 is not feasible. The road closure is located such that all evacuees within the Laguna Beach EMZs are forced to evacuate along SR‐1 southbound toward Dana Point.
The 90th percentile ETE ranges between 3:40 (Hours:Minutes) and 7:05 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30. The 100th percentile ETE ranges between 4:30 (Hours:Minutes) and 8:20 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30.
When comparing the results of Table J‐8 to Table 7‐1, it can be seen that the 90th percentile ETE increases by as much as 3 hours and 25 minutes. When comparing Table J‐9 and Table 7‐2, the 100th percentile ETE increases by as much as 4 hours. During the base case (summer midweek midday, normal conditions scenario of an evacuation of all EMZs) scenario, approximately 4,900 vehicles utilize SR‐133 northbound and over 12,000 vehicles utilize SR‐1 northbound to exit the EMZs. These vehicles are forced to reroute to SR‐1 southbound. SR‐1 southbound is overwhelmed, and congestion and queuing worsen. As a result, ETE significantly increases.
J.4.4 Closure of SR‐133 and SR‐1 Southbound
Table J‐10 and Table J‐11 represent the 90th and 100th percentile ETE results when EMZ are forced to evacuate northbound toward Newport Beach along SR‐1 northbound. This case was run to represent a wildfire event that is near Aliso and Wood Canyon Wilderness Park and evacuation to the south along SR‐1 and north along SR‐133 is not feasible. The road closure is located such that all evacuees within the Laguna Beach EMZs are forced to evacuate along SR‐1 northbound toward Newport Beach.
The 90th percentile ETE ranges between 3:45 (Hours:Minutes) and 6:50 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30. The 100th percentile ETE ranges between 4:30 (Hours:Minutes) and 8:00 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30.
When comparing the results of Table J‐10 to Table 7‐1, it can be seen that the 90th percentile ETE increases by as much as 3 hours and 25 minutes. When comparing Table J‐11 and Table 7‐2, the 100th percentile ETE increases by as much as 3 hours and 45 minutes. During the base case (summer midweek midday, normal conditions scenario of an evacuation of all EMZs) scenario, approximately 4,900 vehicles utilize SR‐133 northbound and about 12,000 vehicles utilize SR‐1 southbound to exit the EMZs. These vehicles are forced to reroute to SR‐1 northbound. SR‐1 northbound is overwhelmed, and congestion and queuing worsen. As a result, ETE significantly increases.
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J.4.5 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Closures
Figure J‐1 through Figure J‐7 show the patterns of congestion for the closure cases discussed above and the base case at each hour into the evacuation up to 7 hours after the advisory to evacuate.
At 1 hour into the evacuation, asshown in Figure J‐1, all casesshow peak congestion in the EMZs.
Congestion along SR‐1 is severe in all cases. Congestion along I‐405 is worst in the case wherein parts of SR‐73 are closed as these vehicles utilize I‐405 to get to their destination. Congestion along SR‐73 is worse in all cases (except the case wherein parts of it are closed) when compared to the base case. This is because vehicles in the Shadow Region choose to evacuate via SR‐73 instead of SR‐1 since parts SR‐1 are closed or SR‐1 is so congested (in the SR‐133 only closure case).
When comparing the patterns of congestion at 2 hours into the evacuation for all closure cases, in Figure J‐2, the north‐eastern portion of the city (Top of the World, Old Top of the World, Temple Hills, and Bluebird Canyon) is more congested than in the base case. Congestion along I‐ 405 is worst in the SR‐133 and SR‐73 closure case. Congestion along SR‐1 outside of the EMZs is worst in the case wherein SR‐133 and SR‐73 are closed, as well.
At 3 hoursinto the evacuation, asshown in Figure J‐3, congestion remainsin the southern portion of the shadow region in all cases. Severe congestion persists in most of the city for the cases wherein SR‐1 is closed either northbound or southbound. Congestion patterns in the case wherein SR‐133 is closed with and without a closure along SR‐73 are similar.
Figure J‐4 shows the patterns of congestion at 4 hours after the advisory to evacuate. At this time, the congestion that remainsin the case wherein SR‐133 is closed with and without a closure along SR‐73 is mainly along SR‐1. The congestion along SR‐1 in these cases is worse than in the base case at this time. The cases wherein SR‐1 is closed northbound or southbound are still heavily congested within the EMZ.
When comparing the patterns of congestion at 5 hours into the evacuation for all closure cases, in Figure J‐5, the base case is clear of congestion. The case wherein only SR‐133 is closed is nearly clear of congestion. Congestion remains along SR‐1 in the case wherein SR‐133 and SR‐73 are closed. All though lessened since the previous hour, the cases wherein SR‐1 is closed northbound or southbound are still congested within the EMZ.
At 6 hoursinto the evacuation, asshown in Figure J‐6, the cases wherein SR‐133 with and without a closure along SR‐73 are clear of congestion within the EMZs. Some congestion remains along SR‐1 northbound north of the EMZsin the case wherein SR‐133 and SR‐73 are closed. Congestion remains along SR‐1 in the direction that is open in the SR‐1 closure cases.
Figure J‐7 shows the patterns of congestion at 7 hours after the advisory to evacuate. All cases, except the case wherein SR‐133 and SR‐1 northbound, are closed are clear of congestion at this time. This congestion clears an hour and 20 minutes later.
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J.5 Effect of Using Contraflow
Contraflow is a form of reversible traffic operation in which one or more travel lanes of a divided highway are used for the movement of traffic in the opposing direction1 . It is an effective way of
temporarily increasing the available capacity of a roadway, if planned for and executed effectively, without the monetary cost of widening a roadway or building a new one. For this sensitivity study, three cases of contraflow were analyzed:
Contraflow of a single lane on SR‐1 southbound from SR‐133 to Reef Point Drive ‐ since contraflow of both southbound lanes would be difficult to implement and would not permit emergency vehicles from entering the area along SR‐1 southbound, only a single lane was contraflowed. For this case, the network included 3 lanes along SR‐1 northbound and one lane on SR‐1 southbound from SR‐133 to Reef Point Drive. Contraflow of a single lane on SR‐1 northbound from SR‐133 to Crown Valley Parkway2 ‐ since contraflow of both southbound lanes would be difficult to implement and would not permit emergency vehicles from entering the area along SR‐1 northbound, only a single lane was contraflowed. For this case, the network included 3 lanes along SR‐1 southbound and one lane on SR‐1 northbound from SR‐133 to Crown Valley Parkway. Contraflow of the center turning lane along SR‐133 from Canyon Acres Drive to El Toro Road,since contraflow of both the southbound and center turning lanes would be difficult to implement and would not permit emergency vehicles from entering the area along SR‐ 133 southbound. For this case, the network included 2 lanes along SR‐133 northbound and one lane on SR‐133 southbound for this stretch of roadway.
For these cases, it was assumed the contraflow was in place at the start of the evacuation. ETE were calculated for Scenario 1, Region R28, R29 and R30; a summer, midweek, midday, with normal conditions and an evacuation of all EMZs. The results were compared to Section 7.
As shown in Table J‐12, if contraflow is implemented for an evacuation along SR‐1 north, the 90th percentile ETE is reduced by at most 10 minutes and the 100th percentile ETE is reduced by at most 15 minutes. If contraflow is implemented for an evacuation along SR‐1 south, the 90th percentile ETE is reduced by at most 20 minutes. There is no impact on the 100th percentile ETE.
If contraflow is implemented for an evacuation along SR‐133 north, the 90th and 100th percentile ETE are reduced by at most 5 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively. The additional lanes that are used to contraflow traffic, increases the capacity of these roadways by about one third. As a result, evacuees reach safety more quickly.
Care should be given to when and how a contraflow plan is implemented. Depending on the roadway configuration, implementing contraflow can inhibit first responders and/or emergency vehicles trying to reach the area of risk or residents returning from work to unite with their families to evacuate. Implementing contraflow is dangerous – potential for head‐on collisions – 1 A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets, 5th Edition., American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C. (2001)
2 Please note for this case, external traffic traveling northbound on SR-1 were given the ability to utilize I-5 as the single lane servicing northbound traffic on SR-1 is not sufficient to process these vehicles and service the evacuating traffic demand.
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and resource intensive – requires extensive equipment and personnel to block all roadways that could potentially turn into oncoming traffic. Despite the fact that the ETE decreases when contraflow is implemented, the ETE benefit does not outweigh the danger and effort required to implement it. Implementing contraflow would only be worth the risk if the ETE decreases by hours, not minutes.
J.6 Effect of Additional Housing Units Along SR‐1
The City requested an additional sensitivity study be performed to determine whether adding an additional 400 housing units along SR‐1 in the City of Laguna Beach would have an impact on ETE.
The presence of additional housing units in the city will increase the number of permanent residents, and thereby increase the number of vehicles, evacuating along SR‐1. As described earlier, evacuation travel supply is the ability of a roadway network to serve the traffic demand (number of evacuating vehicles) during an emergency. The results from the demographic survey indicate that, on average, households would use 1.64 vehicles to evacuate. Therefore, the addition of 400 housing units along SR‐1 will increase the evacuating vehicle demand by 656 vehicles (400 x 1.64 vehicles). The exact location of the units was not provided, but it was indicated the housing units would be generally located near the coastal highway. It was assumed that fifty percent of the housing units would be built north of SR‐133 along SR‐1, and that fifty percent of the housing units would be built south of SR‐133 along SR‐1. This case was studied for Regions R26 through R30 for all scenarios.
The 90th percentile ETE ranges between 2:05 (Hours:Minutes) and 3:55 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30. The 100th percentile ETE ranges between 3:35 (Hours:Minutes) and 5:30 for all scenarios for Regions R26 through R30.
When comparing the results of Table J‐13 to Table 7‐1, it can be seen that the 90th percentile ETE increases by as much as 25 minutes. When comparing Table J‐14 and Table 7‐2, the 100th percentile ETE increases by as much as 40 minutes – a significant change. The greatest increases in ETE are experience during weekend scenarios. During weekends, transient activity is high and many transient facilities are located along SR‐1. During these scenarios SR‐1 is already overwhelmed and highly congested. The additional 656 vehicles exacerbate the congestion along SR‐1. As a result, delays increase and ETE increases.
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Table J‐1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study Trip Generation Time (Minutes)
Evacuation Time Estimates for All EMZs
90th Percentile 100th Percentile
2 Hours and 30 Minutes 3:45 4:50
3 Hours and 30 Minutes (Base) 3:45 4:50
4 Hours and 30 Minutes 3:45 4:50
5 Hours and 30 Minutes 3:45 5:35
Table J‐2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study Percent
Shadow
Evacuation
Beyond the
Ridge Line
Evacuating Shadow
Vehicles3 Beyond the
Ridge Line
Evacuation Time Estimate for All EMZs
90th Percentile 100th Percentile
14 (Base) 29,624 3:45 4:50
25 52,900 3:45 4:50
50 105,800 3:55 4:55
100 211,601 4:50 5:55
Table J‐3. Evacuation Time Estimates for Reduction in Demand Case Evacuating
Resident Vehicles
Evacuation Time Estimates for All EMZs
90th Percentile 100th Percentile
One Vehicle per HH 10,705 2:45 3:30
Base Case 17,571 3:45 4:50
3 The Evacuating Shadow Vehicles, in Table J-2, represent the residents and employees who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation. The basis, for the base values shown, is a 14% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees. See Section 6 for further discussion.
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Table J‐4. 90th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 Closure
Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 3:25 3:15 2:35 3:10 3:35 2:50 2:25R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 3:50 3:40 2:55 3:35 4:10 3:10 2:50 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 4:30 4:15 3:35 4:15 4:40 3:45 3:15 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 4:25 4:15 3:30 4:10 4:35 3:45 3:15
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 4:20 4:10 3:30 4:05 4:35 3:40 3:15
Table J‐5. 100th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 Closure
Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 4:05 4:05 3:35 3:50 4:10 3:35 3:35R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 4:30 4:15 3:35 4:20 5:00 4:10 3:35 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 5:10 4:55 4:10 4:55 5:20 4:20 3:55 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 5:00 4:55 4:10 4:45 5:15 4:20 3:55
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 5:00 4:55 4:10 4:50 5:10 4:20 3:50
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Table J‐6. 90th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐73 Closure Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 3:30 3:45 2:35 3:35 3:35 3:10 2:35R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 3:50 3:35 2:55 3:45 3:55 3:15 2:40 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 4:50 4:15 3:55 4:35 4:35 3:45 3:40 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 4:45 4:30 3:35 4:35 4:40 3:45 3:15
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 4:20 4:05 3:30 4:05 4:30 4:00 3:20
Table J‐7. 100th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐73 Closure Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 4:35 4:45 3:35 4:35 4:50 4:15 3:35R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 4:55 4:35 3:35 4:45 5:00 4:10 3:35 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 5:45 5:25 4:45 5:30 5:40 4:45 4:30 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 5:40 5:25 4:30 5:25 5:40 4:45 3:50
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 5:10 4:50 4:20 5:00 5:10 4:45 4:00
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Table J‐8. 90th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐1 Northbound Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 4:45 4:30 4:15 4:25 4:55 3:40 3:45R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 5:35 5:15 4:55 5:10 5:45 4:25 4:30 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 6:50 6:30 6:10 6:20 7:05 5:30 5:40 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 6:50 6:30 6:10 6:20 7:05 5:35 5:40
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 6:50 6:30 6:10 6:20 7:05 5:30 5:40
Table J‐9. 100th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐1 Northbound Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 6:20 6:15 5:40 5:25 5:55 4:30 4:40R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 7:35 7:30 6:40 6:30 7:05 5:15 5:25 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 8:20 8:05 7:30 7:30 8:05 6:20 6:35 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 8:20 8:05 7:30 7:30 8:05 6:20 6:35
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 8:20 8:05 7:30 7:30 8:05 6:20 6:35
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Table J‐10. 90th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐1 Southbound Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 5:10 4:45 4:55 5:00 5:00 3:45 4:05R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 5:15 4:15 4:00 4:40 5:20 4:00 4:00 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 6:50 6:15 6:15 6:05 6:05 4:35 5:05 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 6:25 6:45 6:05 5:55 5:55 4:45 4:50
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 6:45 6:10 5:30 5:55 5:55 5:15 4:35
Table J‐11. 100th Percentile ETE – SR‐133 and SR‐1 Southbound Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 6:15 5:50 5:55 6:05 6:10 4:30 5:00R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 6:20 5:20 4:50 5:35 6:15 4:40 4:45 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 8:00 7:20 7:25 7:10 7:10 5:25 5:55 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 7:50 7:45 7:00 7:00 7:00 5:35 5:40
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 8:00 7:10 6:25 6:55 6:55 6:10 5:25
City of Laguna Beach J‐13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Table J‐12. Evacuation Time Estimates for Scenario 1 – Contraflow Sensitivity Study Contraflowed Roadway 90th Percentile ETE 100th Percentile Region R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line Base Case 3:45 4:50
SR‐1 NB 3:35 4:35
SR‐1 SB 3:25 4:50
SR‐133 NB 3:45 4:35
R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only Base Case 3:30 4:20
SR‐1 NB 3:30 4:20
SR‐1 SB 3:10 4:20
SR‐133 NB 3:25 4:15
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only Base Case 3:35 4:50
SR‐1 NB 3:35 4:35
SR‐1 SB 3:25 4:50
SR‐133 NB 3:35 4:40
City of Laguna Beach J‐14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Table J‐13. 90th Percentile ETE – Additional Housing Units Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 3:00 2:45 2:10 2:45 2:50 2:25 2:05R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 3:15 3:10 2:45 3:10 3:30 2:55 2:30 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 3:55 3:40 3:05 3:25 3:50 3:20 2:55 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 3:35 3:35 3:05 3:25 3:40 3:20 2:40
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 3:35 3:30 3:00 3:20 3:45 3:05 2:45
Table J‐14. 100th Percentile ETE – Additional Housing Units Summer Summer Fall Fall
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Region
Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
Reduced
Roadway
Capacity
Normal
Conditions
Normal
Conditions
R26 ‐ North and Central Laguna 3:55 3:40 3:35 3:45 3:35 3:35 3:35R27 ‐ South and Central Laguna 4:30 4:35 3:35 4:20 5:00 4:10 3:35 R28 – All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line 5:00 4:50 3:55 4:45 5:30 4:30 3:40 R29 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the North Only 4:20 4:45 3:45 4:55 5:15 4:15 3:35
R30 ‐ All EMZs + 100% of Shadow Region along Ridge Line to the South Only 4:50 5:00 3:40 4:40 5:20 4:10 3:45
City of Laguna Beach J‐15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐1. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐2. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐3. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐4. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐5. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐6. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 6 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate City of Laguna Beach J‐21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wildfire Egress Study Rev. 2
Figure J‐7. Road Closure Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate