City of Laguna Beach
2026 BLT Poll
Results (abridged to focus on BLT)
June 2026
Opinion Research on
Elections and Public Policy
PROBOLSKY RESEARCH
23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660
Newport Beach
(949) 855-6400
San Francisco
(415) 870-8150
Washington DC
(202) 559-0270
Attachment 3
15 City of Laguna Beach – 2026 BLT Poll
Survey Methodology*
Sample
The sample was compiled from data obtained from the
Orange County Registrar of Voters. We called, emailed,
and texted voters. We matched the demographics of City of Laguna Beach likely 2026 General Election voters.
Data Collection Explained
Interviews were conducted by phone (34%) and online
methods (67%). Phone participants were interviewed
through landline (25%) and mobile (75%) calls. Online
participants were invited by email (50%) and text
message(50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet,
or smartphone.
Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (98%) and Spanish (2%).
Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once.
*Due to rounding, totals shown on charts may not add up to 100% Probolsky Research is a Latina- and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and nonprofit clients. 1 Survey Details
Mode Phone (landline and mobile)
Online (email and text to web)
Language English and Spanish
Length 20 minutes
Target Respondents Likely November 2026 General Election voters Survey Fielding Jun 19 - 24, 2026
Margin of Error +/-5%
Survey Participants 400
16 51% think there is a need for additional funds to
provide the level of City services and facilities
Question 3: Do you think the City has a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to maintain the level of City services and facilities that Laguna Beach residents use?
8 5.8%
25.8%
19.8%
33.5%
15.3%
Great need Some need Little need No real need Unsure
51%
63.0%
61.0% 64.1%
51.0%
8.0% 15.8% 11.8% 15.3%
28.8% 23.5% 24.3%
33.5%
2024 2025 2026 2026 - 2
Need
Unsure
No real need
17 Initial vote: 47% would vote no on the business
license tax
Here is a potential ballot measure that may come before Laguna Beach in November. If the election were held today, please indicate how you would vote.
Question 4: “To help fund services for six million annual visitors, most of whom come for the day and create costs for public safety, traffic and parking enforcement, park and beach maintenance, waste removal, shall the City of Laguna Beach adopt a measure updating its business license tax by removing the $1,650 annual cap and imposing a 3% tax on amounts charged by bars and restaurants, generating approximately $8,600,000 until ended by voters, with all funds spent locally?”
33.3%
47.3%
19.5%
Vote yes Vote no Unsure
9 18
Among those who vote no, 61% definitely vote no
Here is a potential ballot measure that may come before Laguna Beach in November. If the election were held today, please indicate how you would vote.
Question 4: “To help fund services for six million annual visitors, most of whom come for the day and create costs for public safety, traffic and parking enforcement, park and beach maintenance, waste removal, shall the City of Laguna Beach adopt a measure updating its business license tax by removing the $1,650 annual cap and imposing a 3% tax on amounts charged by bars and restaurants, generating approximately $8,600,000 until ended by voters, with all funds spent locally?” Definitely
37.6%
Probably
62.4%
Among those who said
vote yes
Definitely
60.8%
Probably
39.2%
Among those who said
vote no
33.3%
47.3%
19.5%
Total
10 19
27% would vote yes on the BLT because it makes tourists pay and offsets tourism costs
Question 5: What is the main reason you would vote yes on this measure? :
[IF ANSWERED 'VOTE YES' TO Q4]
[OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE]
27.1%
12.8%
12.8%
11.3%
7.5%
6.0%
6.0%
3.8%
2.3%
5.3%
0.8%
4.5%
Make tourist pay/ Offset tourism cost
Maintain service/ Improve infrastructure
Overtourism/ Negative tourism impact
Increase revenue/ Need funds
Reduce tax for local resident
Improve public safety
Tax business
General support
Improve quality of life/ Better livability
Other
Unsure
N/A/Refused
33.3%
47.3%
19.5%
Question asked of
respondents who would
vote yes on the business
license tax, representing
33% of the total sample or
133 individuals.
14 20
23% would vote no on the BLT because it could hurt the
local economy
Question 6: What is the main reason you would vote no on this measure? :
[IF ANSWERED 'VOTE NO' TO Q4]
[OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE]
22.8%
19.0%
15.3%
13.2%
6.9%
6.9%
3.7%
3.7%
5.3%
0.5%
2.6%
Hurts local businesses/Economic harm
City wastes money/needs better fiscal management
Oppose new taxes/Taxes already too high
Impacts local residents
Tourists should be taxed
Too expensive/Would increase cost of living
Need more accountability
City is bloated/overstaffed
Other
Unsure
N/A/Refused
33.3%
47.3%
19.5%
Question asked of
respondents who
answered vote no to Q4,
representing 47% of the
total sample or 189
individuals.
15 21
78% agree that residents pay the costs created by
visitors
Question 7: Agree or disagree: The City spends tens of millions of dollars each year addressing the impacts day visitors have on our community – including public safety, infrastructure, beach maintenance, trash removal, and other services, much of those costs paid for by residents, not the visitors.
78.8%
10.3% 11.0%
Agree Disagree Unsure
16 22
Among those who agree, 62% strongly agree
Question 7: Agree or disagree: The City spends tens of millions of dollars each year addressing the impacts day visitors have on our community – including public safety, infrastructure, beach maintenance, trash removal, and other services, much of those costs paid for by residents, not the visitors.
Strongly
61.9%
Somewhat
38.1%
Among those who said
agree
Strongly
51.2%
Somewhat
48.8%
Among those who said
disagree
78.8%
10.3%
11.0%
Total
17 23
10 Positive messages Percent More Likely to
Vote Yes
Every dollar generated for this business license tax measure on bars and restaurants would stay and be used in Laguna Beach and cannot be taken by the county or state. 55.3%
Funding from this measure could allow the City to spend more to reduce wildfire risk through vegetation management, evacuation planning, undergrounding power lines on Laguna Canyon Road, and other fire safety improvements. 49.3% Approximately 74% of sales at local bars and restaurants come from visitors. 48.0% Most visitors come to Laguna Beach for only a day but still use city streets, public safety services, parks, and other local infrastructure, creating costs that are currently paid for by residents. The proposed business license tax on bars and restaurants would make sure visitors contribute more toward the services they use.
45.8%
Visitors each year create impacts to our police, fire, and marine safety services in Laguna Beach. Funding from this measure could provide funding for additional police officers, firefighters, and paramedics. 45.5% Funding from this measure could help expand parking enforcement, add parking spaces, and make it easier to find available parking outside residential neighborhoods. 38.5%
Funding from this measure could help maintain and improve City parks, trails, and recreational facilities, and open spaces, including Heisler Park, Bluebird Park, Alta Laguna Park, and other community amenities. 38.3% Negative messages Percent More Likely to
Vote No
Bars and restaurants operate on thin profit margins and face rising labor, rent, and operating costs. This tax could cause some bars and restaurants to go out of business and lead to additional storefront vacancies. 70.5% Taxes on bars and restaurants are not common in Orange County, this tax could make Laguna Beach bars and restaurants less competitive and encourage people to spend their money elsewhere. 51.0% 24 Informed vote: 50% would vote no on the business
license tax
Knowing what you know now, if the election were held today, how would you vote on this ballot measure? Question 17: “To help fund services for six million annual visitors, most of whom come for the day and create costs for public safety, traffic and parking enforcement, park and beach maintenance, waste removal, shall the City of Laguna Beach adopt a measure updating its business license tax by removing the $1,650 annual cap and imposing a 3% tax on amounts charged by bars and restaurants, generating approximately $8,600,000 until ended by voters, with all funds spent locally?” 66 33.3%
47.3%
19.5%
38.0%
50.0%
12.0%
Vote yes Vote no Unsure
initial Informed initial Informed initial Informed
25 Among those who vote no, 61% definitely vote no
Definitely
43.4%
Probably
56.6%
Among those who said
vote yes
Definitely
61.0%
Probably
39.0%
Among those who said
vote no
38.0%
50.0%
12.0%
Total
67 Knowing what you know now, if the election were held today, how would you vote on this ballot measure? Question 17: “To help fund services for six million annual visitors, most of whom come for the day and create costs for public safety, traffic and parking enforcement, park and beach maintenance, waste removal, shall the City of Laguna Beach adopt a measure updating its business license tax by removing the $1,650 annual cap and imposing a 3% tax on amounts charged by bars and restaurants, generating approximately $8,600,000 until ended by voters, with all funds spent locally?” 26 52% agree with Smith that the tax would increase
costs for residents and hurt local restaurants
Question 18: Now we have the statements from two Laguna Beach residents. Please choose which statement you agree with the most.
Smith: “I oppose the Business License Tax increase because it is going to be a burden on our bars and restaurants. And they are just going to pass along the higher taxes to me when I go out to eat with my family. Worse, higher prices discourage customers from going to our bars and restaurants, making it harder for them to survive.
Jones: “I support the Business License Tax increase on bars and restaurants because the vast majority of new revenue will be paid by visitors, not residents. And we have to do something to recover all the millions we spend on visitors that impact our roads, beaches, parking, and public safety. We cannot stop people from coming, but this is the one of the best ways to make sure visitors pay their fair share”.
51.5%
34.0%
14.5%
Agree with Smith Agree with Jones Unsure
71 27
Demographics
80 28
Respondent demographics by gender, age, ethnicity, party, education, years of residency, vote propensity, and birthplace
48.8%
51.3%
Male
Female
Gender
10.3%
6.0%
8.3%
27.8%
47.8%
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-64
65+
Age
6.0%
83.0%
4.3%
6.8%
Latino/Hispanic
White/Caucasian
Asian/Pacific
Islander
Other
Ethnicity
46.8%
29.3%
17.0%
7.0%
Democrat
Republican
No Party
Preference
Other
Party
59.7%
40.3%
Non-college
College
Education
48.5%
14.0%
13.8%
8.8%
8.8%
2.5%
3.8%
5 out of 5
4 out of 5
3 out of 5
2 out of 5
1 out of 5
New Perfect Voter
New Registrant
Vote propensity
82.5%
17.5%
US born
Foreign born
Birth Origin
81 0.8%
8.1%
10.9%
7.6%
7.1%
65.6%
Less than 1 year
1 to 5 years
6 to 10 years
11 to 15 years
16 to 20 years
21 years and over
Years of residency
29 Questions?
Adam Probolsky, President
O: 949-855-6400 | M: 949-697-6726
E: [email protected]
Sergio Martinez, Senior Research Analyst
E: [email protected]
Opinion Research on
Elections and Public Policy
PROBOLSKY RESEARCH
23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660
Newport Beach
(949) 855-6400
San Francisco
(415) 870-8150
Washington DC
(202) 559-0270
30