REPORT TO CITY COUNCIL
To:Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
From:Jason Simpson, City Manager
Prepared by:Gina Gonzalez, Director of Economic Development and Legislative Affairs Date:May 13, 2025
Subject:Professional Services Agreement with Mullin 360 Real Estate Services, LLC for an Auto Assessment and Net Growth Demand Analysis Recommendation
Approve and authorize the City Manager to execute an agreement/contract with Mullin 360 in an amount not to exceed $86,000 for an Auto Assessment and Net Growth Demand Analysis in such final form as approved by the City Attorney and authorize the City Manager to execute change orders not exceeding a 10% contingency of $8,600 for uncertainties and adjustments.
Background
The City of Lake Elsinore has strategically positioned itself as a growing hub for automotive sales, with the Lake Elsinore Auto Mall serving as a critical engine of local economic development. With the Southern California auto market continuing to evolve, even after COVID 19, the discussion on the city’s auto park was taken to the Economic Development Ad-Hoc Committee (with Councilmembers Johnson and Manos), where it was discussed that we needed to better understand the shifting dynamics of consumer demand, trade areas, and brand-specific preferences and opportunities that are essential to capitalize on Lake Elsinore’s untapped potential, and to understand site needs, location (based on 10 mile radius requirements), brand opportunities and targets, and relocation opportunities based on demands in Lake Elsinore and the region.
Discussion
As competition for regional auto sales intensifies, data-driven insights are vital to growing Lake Elsinore’s auto mall’s market share. With a proposed Auto Park in the City- it is vital with the limited space to better understand its constraints, and how auto parks versus traditional Auto rows (which Lake Elsinore has) can produce 24% more sales, but auto users have to be scientifically located to achieve the superior position, and strategic attention is needed to know when and where new points may be awarded to dealer groups.
Auto Assessment and Net Growth Demand Analysis
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To that end, to better understand and develop a strategy for auto park relocation staff is recommending and agreement with Mullin 360 Real Estate Services, LLC (“Mullin 360”), a firm recognized for its proprietary trade area research tools and extensive experience in retail and auto cluster/mall analytics. Under the direction of Principal Jim Mullin, Mullin360 has helped develop 40 auto malls, and over eight 1200 dealerships. In the 34 years of development, they have never developed a center without a Net Growth Demand Analysis.
Some of the Auto Malls they have done studies and developed include:
1. Penske AutoMall, Scottsdale AZ – 47 acres
2. Scottsdale AutoShow, Scottsdale AZ – 84 acres
3. Superstition Springs Auto Park, Mesa AZ – 74 acres
4. Superstition Springs Auto Park II, Mesa AZ – 34 acres
5. Tempe AutoPlex – 100 acres
6. Goodyear AutoPlex – 57 acres
7. San Tan MotorPlex, Gilbert AZ – 124 acres
8. 303 AutoShow, Surprise AZ – 127 acres
Approving this agreement aligns with the City's long-term vision for economic vitality and job creation. The analysis will provide a roadmap to attract high-performing auto brands, increase per-acre revenue efficiency, and ultimately strengthen the fiscal foundation of the City. By understanding what brands are missing, where customer demand lies, and how best to support dealership expansion, Lake Elsinore can become a magnet for automotive investment and build out an Auto Cluster. This effort also complements ongoing infrastructure improvements and the City's branding as a regional retail destination.
Mullin 360’s experience working with jurisdictions across California gives them the insight needed to elevate Lake Elsinore’s Auto Mall to the next level and strategically understand the auto demand for the area- and who to specifically target with limited space for the cluster.
PROJECT SCOPE
Mullin 360 will deliver a comprehensive assessment that includes:
•Auto Cluster Demand Analysis: Utilize proprietary data models to define the primary and secondary trade areas influencing auto sales in Lake Elsinore. •Brand-Specific Opportunity Evaluation: Analyze the performance, consumer pull, and dealership gaps for major auto brands (e.g., Toyota, Ford, Kia, Tesla, etc.).
Auto Assessment and Net Growth Demand Analysis
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•Sales Tax Revenue Forecasting: Estimate projected sales tax revenue based on auto brand mix, market absorption rates, and average dealership output. •Dealership Sizing and Site Planning: Recommend ideal parcel sizes, dealership configurations, and infrastructure needs for targeted brands. •Pricing and Investment Analysis: Evaluate project development costs, return on investment (ROI), and financial feasibility for attracting anchor dealerships. •Comparative Market Positioning: Assess Lake Elsinore’s competitive edge compared to regional auto malls in cities such as Temecula, Corona, and Riverside.
Fiscal Impact
The total cost of the Mullin 360 analysis is $86,000, and this study will assist the city with the auto strategy and investment opportunity that has a potential return on investment that is substantial, as even one new dealership could generate $500,000 to $1 million in annual sales tax revenues.
Attachments
Attachment 1- Agreement with Mullin 360 Real Estate Services, LLC Exhibit A – Mullin 360 Proposal
Economic Development Department