Agenda packet — Lake Forest City Council, January 3, 2023 (part 2 of 4)

10.7% of renter-occupied units.

TABLE 20: OVERCROWDING BY TENURE (2018)
Persons per Room
Owner Renter Total
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1.00 or less 19,528 97.9% 7,821 89.3% 27,349 95.2%

1.01 to 1.50 382 1.9% 517 5.9% 899 3.2%

1.51 or more 45 0.2% 420 4.8% 465 1.6%
TOTAL 19,955 100% 8,758 100% 28,713 100%
Overcrowded 427 2.1% 937 10.7% 1,364 4.8%
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-38 Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
As shown in Table 21, the average household size in Lake Forest was 2.87 persons in 2018, which was an increase from the average household size of 2.84 persons in 2010. Table 21 shows Lake Forest’s household sizes for owner-occupied, renter-occupied, and all households. The average household size was slightly higher for owner-occupied units (2.89 persons). Renter -occupied households had an average size of 2.82 persons. The large majority (71.8%) of owner-occupied households had two to four persons, whereas 72.0% of renter-occupied households were one to three persons in size. Table 22 identifies bedrooms by tenure.

Although larger renter households and larger owne r households are proportionally comparable, the proportion of larger (4 or more bedroom) homes is significantly higher for owner households.

TABLE 21: HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY TENURE (2018)
Household Size
Owner Renter Total
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
1-person 3,713 18.6% 2,343 26.8% 6,056 21.1%
2-person 6,381 32.0% 2,454 28.0% 8,835 30.8%
3-person 3,969 19.9% 1,502 17.2% 5,471 19.1%
4-person 3,981 19.9% 1,518 17.3% 5,499 19.2%
5-person 1,274 6.4% 570 6.5% 1,844 6.4%
6-person 346 1.7% 180 2.1% 526 1.8%
7-or-more-person 291 1.5% 191 2.2% 482 1.7%
TOTAL 19,955 100% (69.5% of total) 8,758 100% (30.5% of total) 28,713 100%
Average Household
Size

2.89 2.82 2.87
Source: SCAG 6th Cycle Data Package
TABLE 22: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS BY TENURE (2018)
Bedroom Type
Owner Renter Total
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
No bedroom 41 0.2% 273 3.1% 314 1.1%
1-bedroom 514 2.6% 2,624 30.0% 3,138 10.9%
2-bedroom 3,718 18.6% 3,328 38.0% 7,046 24.5%
3-bedroom 7,171 35.9% 1,707 19.5% 8,878 30.9%
4-bedroom 6,916 34.7% 652 7.4% 7,568 26.4%
5 or more bedroom 1,595 8.0% 174 2.0% 1,769 6.2%
TOTAL 19,955 100% 8,758 100% 28,713 100%
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
3F. Housing Costs

FOR SALE HOUSING
TABLE 23: HOMES FOR SALE (JANUARY 2021)
Price Homes Percent
$700,000 and more 113 64.6%
$600,000 - $699,999 13 7.4%
$500,000 - $599,999 9 5.1%
$400,000 - $499,999 11 6.3%
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-39 As shown in Figure 1, between 2000 and 2018,
median home sales prices in Lake Forest increased
207% while prices in the SCAG region increased
151%. The 2018 median home sales price in Lake
Forest was $731,000 – the highest median sales price
experienced since 2000. Prices in the City have
ranged from a low of 92.7% of the SCAG region median in 2007 to a high of 132.7% in 2017.

In January 2021, there were 175 homes listed for sale in Lake Forest on Zillow.com with prices ranging from $65,000 to $2,599,000. Of these homes, there were 135 detached single-family homes with sales prices beginning at $65,000 (manufactured home). As shown in Table 23, the vast majority of homes for sale were in the $700,000+ price range (64.6%), with 18.8% of homes in the $400,000 to $699,999 range, and 29 priced under $400,000. Zillow identified the January 2021 median sales price as $774,000. While the median sales price is not affordable to lower and moderate-income households (see Table 27), the City’s median home sales price was lower than the Orange County median sales pr ice (Zillow reported a median home sales price of $872,000 for the County in January 2021) , which may result in higher demand for housing in Lake Forest.

FIGURE 1: MEDIAN HOME SALES PRICE

Source: SCAG 6th Cycle Data Package

RENTAL HOUSING
Table 24 summarizes rents paid in Lake Forest in 2018 by rent-cost range. The majority (84.9%) of units rented for $1,500 or more. Only 3.4% of rentals were under $1,000 per month. More than one-third of rentals were in the $1,500 to $1,999 range. Based on a review of rental listings on Zillow.com and Craiglist.com, the average rent in Lake Forest (J anuary 2021) is $2,802 per month. There were 49 rentals available in January 2021. Rents ranged from $1,900 to $2,549 for 2 bed/2 bath homes to $3,600 to $7,500 for four or more-bedroom homes, as shown in Table 25.

TABLE 24: RENTAL COSTS (2018)
Rent Range Number Percent
Less than $500 125 1.5%
$500 to $999 166 1.9%
$1,000 to $1,499 994 11.6%
$1,500 to $1,999 3,347 39.0%
$300,000 - $399,999 7 4.0%
$200,000 - $299,999 6 3.4%
$100,000 - $199,999 12 6.9%
$0 - $99,999 4 2.3%
Source: Zillow.com, 2021
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-40 $2,000 to $2,499 2,345 27.3%
$2,500 to $2,999 903 10.5%
$3,000 or more 695 8.1%
Median (dollars) $1,949
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-41 TABLE 25: RENTAL RATES BY NUMBER OF BEDROOMS
Bedroom Type
Rental Survey
Units
Available Range Average Rent
Studio 2 $1,600 - $2,031 $1,816
1 bed 12 $1,650 - $2,098 $1,841
2 bed 22 $1,900 - $2,549 $2,225
3 bed 10 $2,600 - $3,900 $3,193
4 bed or more 3 $3,600 - $7,500 $4,933
Sources: Zillow.com and Craigslist.com, Jan. 2021

INCOME GROUPS
The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) publishes household income data annually for areas in California. Table 26 shows the maximum annual income level for each income group adjusted for house hold size for Orange County. The maxi mum annual income data is utilized to calculate the maximum affordable housing payments for different households (by income level and number of persons in household) and their eligibility for housing assistance programs.  Extremely Low-Income Households have a combined income at or lower than 30% of area median income (AMI), as established by the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD).  Very Low-Income Households have a combined income between 30 and 50% of AMI, as established by HCD.
 Low-Income Households have a combined income between 50 and 80% of AMI, as established by HCD.
 Moderate-Income Households have a combined income between 80 and 120% of AMI, as established by HCD.
 Above Moderate-Income Households have a combined income greater than 120% of AMI, as established by HCD.

TABLE 26: STATE INCOME LIMITS – ORANGE COUNTY (2021)
Income Group 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 4 Person 5 Person 6 Person 7 Person 8 Person Extremely Low $28,250 $32,300 $36,350 $40,350 $43,600 $46,850 $50,050 $53,300 Very Low $47,100 $53,800 $60,550 $67,250 $72,650 $78,050 $83,400 $88,800 Low $75,300 $86,050 $96,800 $107,550 $116,200 $124,800 $133,400 $142,000 Moderate $89,650 $102,450 $115,250 $128,050 $138,300 $148,550 $148,550 $169,050 Above Moderate $89,650+ $102,450
+
$115,250
+
$128,050
+
$138,300
+
$148,550
+
$148,550
+
$169,050
+
Source: HCD 2020 Orange County Income Limits

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Table 27 shows the estimated maximum rents and sales prices that are affordable to very low, low, moderate, and above moderate-income households. Affordability is based on a household spending 30% or less of their total household income for shelter. Affordability is based on the maximum household income levels established by HCD (Table 26). The annual income limi ts established by HCD are similar to those used by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for administering various affordable housing programs. Maximum affordable sales price is based generally on the following assumptions: 4% interest rate, Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-42 30-year fixed loan, and down payments that vary with income level, as described in Table 27.

Comparing the maximum affordable housing costs in Table 27 to the rental rates, rental rates in Lake Forest are generally affordable to moderate-income househol ds of two or more persons and to above moderate- income households of all household sizes. While there are some units affordable to low-income households, they tend to be smaller units ranging in size from 1- to 2-bedrooms. Moderate and above moderate-income households can afford a broad range of available housing options.

Although there are homes for sale in Lake Forest available to all income, the overwhelming majority of homes (i.e., in the $700,000+ range) are affordable to only above moderate-income households.

TABLE 27: HOUSING AFFORDABILITY BY INCOME GROUP
Income
Group
One Person Two Person Four Person Six Person
Home
Sale
Price*
Monthly
Rent or
Housing
Cost
Home
Sale
Price*
Monthly
Rent or
Housing
Cost
Home
Sale
Price*
Monthly
Rent or
Housing
Cost
Home
Sale
Price*
Monthly
Rent or
Housing
Cost
Extremely Low $100,663 $706 $116,026 $808 $146,561 $1,009 $171,216 $1,171 Very Low $180,231 $1,178 $201,200 $1,345 $252,218 $1,681 $293,184 $1,951 Low $286,375 $1,883 $327,151 $2,151 $408,704 $2,689 $474,136 $3,120 Moderate $358,009 $2,241 $407,950 $2,561 $493,708 $3,201 $571,467 $3,714 Above Moderate $358,009+ $2,241+ $407,950+ $2,561+ $493,708+ $3,201+ $571,467+ $3,714+ *Maximum affordable sales price is based on the following assumptions: 4.0% interest rate, 30-year fixed loan; down payment: $5,000 – extremely low, $10,000 – very low; $15,000 – low, $25,000 – moderate; property tax, utilities, and homeowners insurance as 30% of monthly housing cost (extremely low/very low), 28% of monthly housing cost (low), and 25% of monthly housing cost (moderate/above moderate). Homes sales prices are rounded to nearest $100.

Source: De Novo Planning Group, 2021
Extremely Low-income Households
As previously described, extremely low-income households earn less than 30% of the County Area Median Income (AMI). Depending on the household size, t hese households can affo rd rents between $706 and $1,171 per month and could purchase homes priced at $100,663 to $171,216. As of January 2021, there were no rental homes listed on Zillo w or Craigslist that would be affo rdable to extremely low-income households. However, based on US Census data, approximately 3.4% of renters pay monthly rents affordable to extremely low-income households. Extremely low-income households may be able afford to purchase a manufactured home in Lake Forest; however, r eal estate listings for these homes indicate that homes affordable at this price point may need significant maintenance and repair and there is an extremely limited supply.

Very Low-income Households
Very low-income households earn between 31% and 50% of the County Area Median Income (AMI).

Depending on the household size, these households can afford rents between $1,178 to $1,951 per month and could purchase homes priced at $180,231 to $293,18 4. As of January 2021, there were some studio and one-bedroom rental units listed on Zillow or Craigslist that could be affordable to very low-income households. However, based on US Census data, approximately 15.0% of r enters pay monthly rents affordable to very low-income households (inclusive of units also affordable to extremely low-income). Very low-income households may be able afford to purchase a manufactured home or multi-family home in Lake Forest; however, even those units affordable to very low-income households need maintenance and repair and there continues to be a very limited supply.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-43 Low-income Households
Low-income households earn between 51% and 80% of the County Area Median Income (AMI). Depending on the household size, these households can afford rents between $1,883 to $3,120 per month and could purchase homes priced at $286,375 to $474,136. As of January 2021, all studio, one-, and two-bedroom options listed on Zillow or Craigslist would be afford able to rent for low-income households. Based on US Census data, 81.3% of renters in Lake Forest pa y monthly rents affordable to low-income households.

However, most renters are not larger six-person households, so the actual a ffordability by household size may be significantly more limited. Low-income househol ds can afford to rent a variety of home types, including better-maintained manufactured homes, multi-family homes, and some single-family detached homes.

Moderate-income Households
Moderate-income households earn between 80% and 120% of the County Area Median Income (AMI).

Depending on the household size, these households can afford rents between $2,241 and $3,714 per month and could purchase homes priced at $358,009 to $571,467. As of January 2021, nearly all studio, one-, two- , and three-bedroom rental units available were affordable to moderate-income households; these units included multi-family homes as well as single-family homes listed for rent by the homeowner. Moderate- income households can also afford a broader array of homes listed for sale as of January 2021. These unit types include manufactured homes, single-family homes, and multi-family homes. This is further confirmed by US Census data.

OVERPAYMENT
As in most communities, the location of the home is one of the biggest factors with regard to price. Housing in Lake Forest is more affordable than the County ($774,000 versus $872,000 according to Zillow median sales prices in January 2021). However, housing is not affordable for all income levels, particularly the extremely low, very low, and low-income households.

As shown in Table 28, 50.6% of renters in Lake Forest and 28.1% of homeowners overpay for housing. The majority of renters that overpay ar e in the lower income groups, with 76.2% in the extremely low-income group and 64.1% in the very low-income group severely overpaying for housing (over 50% of their monthly income). Comparatively, 71.6% of extremely low-income owners and 42.0% of very low-income owners are severely overpaying. Therefore, while overpaymen t is more predominate among lower income renter households, overpayment is an issue for both renter and owner households. Slightly more than one-third (35.0%) of all households in Lake Forest overpay for housing.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-44 TABLE 28: HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME LEVEL AND OVERPAYMENT (2017) Household Overpayment Renters Owners Total % of
Income Category
Extremely Low-Income Households 1,470 1,305 2,775 100%
With Cost Burden >30% 1,215 / 82.7% 1,020 / 78.2% 2,235 80.5% With Cost Burden >50% 1,120 / 76.2% 935 / 71.6% 2,055 74.1% Very Low-Income Households 1,325 1,345 2,670 100%
With Cost Burden >30% 1,185 / 89.4% 860 / 63.9% 2,045 76.6% With Cost Burden >50% 850 / 64.1% 565 / 42.0% 1,415 53.0% Low-Income Households 1,905 2,555 4,460 100%
With Cost Burden >30% 1,255 / 65.9% 1,585 / 62.0% 2,840 63.7% With Cost Burden >50% 165 / 8.7% 515 / 20.2% 680 15.2% Total Extremely Low, Very Low, and
Low-Income Households Paying >30 % 3,655 / 78% 3,465 / 67% 7,120 72% of lower income household s
Moderate and Above Moderate-Incom e
Households 3,880 14,180 18,060 100%
With Cost Burden >30% 690 /17.8% 1,990 / 14.0% 2,680 14.8% With Cost Burden >50% 55 / 1.4% 180 / 1.3% 235 1.3%
Total Households 8,580 19,385 27,965 100%
With Cost Burden >30% 4,345 / 50.6% 5,455 / 28.1% 9,800 35.0% With Cost Burden >50% 2,190 / 25.5% 2,195 / 11.3% 4,385 15.7% Note: Data is rounded to the nearest 5.

Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), 2013-2017 Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-45

AFFORDABLE HOUSING INVENTORY
Affordability covenants in Lake Forest include deve lopments that received federal pass-through funding (CDBG), received tax credits or mortgage revenue bond s, were financed with redevelopment funds or by non-profit developers, and/or were created to meet the City’s inclusionary housing policy.

Table 29 shows assisted units with covenants that requi re rents to be maintained at affordable levels for various agreed upon periods of time. In 2021, Lake Fo rest has 202 total deed-restricted affordable units. A recorded deed restriction serves as an affordability covenant that restricts the income level of a person who occupies the property, andproperty and ensures the property will remain available for low to moderate-income persons for a defined period.

The City has included Program 15: Conservation of Exis ting Affordable Units, to outline steps the City can take to help preserve all 11 units that are at-risk of converting to market rate units in the next 10 years.

TABLE 29: DEED RESTRICTED AFFORDABLE HOUSING UNITS
Project Name/Location No. & Type of
Affordable Units
Duration of
Affordability
Shelter for the Homeless (forme rly American Family Housing) 1 20927 Serrano Creek Road
1 affordable 2029
South County Outreach Condo Units 1

1 Transitional 2022
2 Transitional 2023
2 Transitional 2024
3 Transitional 2025
Madrid Transitional Housing Condo Units 2
22702, 22706 Madrid Drive
2 Transitional 2030
The Arroyo at Baker Ranch, 100 Indigo Place 3 187 affordable 2045 Saguaro Apartments, 23201 Saguaro Street 4 4 affordable 2071 202
Notes:
1 There are 8 transitional housing units and 1 affordable unit that received CDBG funding from the City, and are required to be affordable to very low or low-income households for 25 years from the da te the covenants were first agreed upon. Under the covenant for th e affordable unit, the occupant(s) in that unit may remain in the unit as long as he or she continues to qualify as an affordable household.

The affordable unit may continue to be rented by the same tenant (s) as long as the tenant(s) continue to qualify as a very low or low- income household.
2 The Madrid condos are owned by the Lake Forest Housing Authority and were purchased with Redevelopment Agency Housing Set-Aside Funds

3. Per Shea/Baker Ranch Development Agreement/Affordable Housing Implementation Plan 4 The Saguaro Apartments were purchased from the Lake Forest Housing Authority by Families Forward.

MOBILE HOMES
Mobile homes offer a more affordable option for those interested in homeownership. The median value of a mobile home in Orange County in 2018 was $59,000 (2 018 ACS 5-Year Estimates Data Profile). Overall, 1,275 mobile homes are located in Lake Forest (DOF, Table 2: E-5, 1/1/2020). According to HCD, there are four mobile home parks in the City with a total of 1,238 permitted spaces. They are:
 El Toro Mobile Estates (30-0282-MP), 24921 Muirlands Blvd. – 328 MH spaces  Forest Gardens Mobile Home Community (30-0268-MP), 24001 Muirlands Blvd. – 494 MH spaces  Kimberly Gardens Mobile Home Park (30-0266-MP), 24922 Muirlands Blvd. – 159 MH spaces  Prothero Mobile Estates (30-0299-MP), 24701 Raymond Way – 257 MH spaces In addition to the cost of a mobile home, owners must either purchase a residential site or rent a mobile home space. And although they present a more affordable alter native, mobile home rents have risen steadily in Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-46 Orange County and throughout southern California since 2009.2 3G. Future Housing Needs
A Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) is mandated by the State of California (Government Code [GC], Section 65584) for regions to address housing issues and needs based on future growth projections for the area. The RHNP for Lake Forest is developed by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), and allocates a “fair share” of regional housi ng needs to individual cities and counties (for unincorporated portions of the region). The intent of the RHNP is to ens ure that local jurisdictions address not only the needs of their immediate areas but also that needs of the entire region are fairly distributed to all communities. A major goal of the RHNP is to assure that every community provides an opportunity for a mix of housing affordable to all economic segments of its population.

This Housing Element addresses SCAG’s Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) schedule for the 6 th Cycle, from 2021 through 2029. The City will n eed to plan to accommodate 3,236 new units, which includes 956 extremely low/very low, 543 low, 559 moderate, and 1,178 above moderate-income units.

Pursuant to Government Code Section 65583(a)(1), 50% of Lake Forest’s very low-income regional housing need assigned by HCD are extremely low-income units, effectively resulting in 478 extremely low-income units and 478 very low-income units. Table 30 summarizes Lake Forest’s fair share, progress to date, and remaining units.

TABLE 30: REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION – 6TH CYCLE Status
Extremely
Low/Very
Low
Low Moderate Above Moderate TOTAL
RHNA Allocation 956 543 559 1,178 3,236
Completed, Under
Construction/Permits
Issued (Since 6/30/2021 ,
accurate as of August 31,
20221)
13 13 14 752451 755461
Units Approved/Entitled 107105 9793 53 544775 753976
Remaining Allocation 848 445447 553552 0 (with a surplus of 118 48 units) 1,8467*
Source: City of Lake Forest, August 31, 2021, SCAG, 2021 * The total remaining allocation is the remaining allocation of extremely low/very low, low, and moderate income units (848, 445447, and 553552, respectively). This results in a remaining allocation of 1,8476 units. The surplus of above moderate-income units (11848) cannot be deducted from the remaining allocation, which is based on the remaining allocation by income level. 3H. Special Needs Groups
Government Code Section 65583(a)(7) requires housing elements to address special housing needs, such as those of the elderly; persons with disabilities, including a developmental disability, as defined in Section 4512 of the Welfare and Institutions Code; large families; farmworkers; families with female heads of households; and families and persons in need of emergenc y shelter. The needs of these groups often call for targeted program responses, such as temporary housing, preservation of residential hotels, housing with features to make it more accessible, and the development of four-bedroom apartments. Special needs groups have been identified and, to the degree possible, responsive programs are provided in the Housing Plan. A principal effort in addressing the needs of these groups is to continue to seek state technical assistance grants to identify the extent and location of those wi th special needs and identify ways and means to assist

2 Jeff Collins, “Soaring rents jolt senior tenants at mobile home park,” OC Registrar (July 20, 2018).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-47 them. Local government budget limitations may act to limit effectiveness in implementing programs for these groups. Please refer to Section 5E of this Element for a discussion of agencies and programs that serve special needs populations in Lake Forest.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-48

SENIORS
Seniors are considered persons age 65 or older in
this Housing Element. However, some funding
programs have lower age limits for persons to be
eligible for their senior housing. Seniors have special housing needs primarily resulting from physical
disabilities and limitations, fixed or limited income,
and health care costs. Additionally, senior
households also have other needs to preserve their
independence including supportive services to
maintain their health and safety, in-home support
services to perform activities of daily living,
conservators to assist with personal care and
financial affairs, public administration assistance to
manage and resolve estate issues, and networks of
care to provide a wide variety of services and daily
assistance.

Various portions of the Housing Element describe characteristics of the senior population, the extent of their needs for affordable housing, housing designated for seniors, and City provisions to accommodate their need. Senior household growth in Lake Forest from 2010 to 2018 is shown in Table 31. The large increase in elderly persons is likely due to the residential growth experienced in Lake Forest as well as aging in place of Lake Forest’s residents. Senior households increased by approximately 56.2% from 2010 to 2018. While seniors represent approximately 13.1% of the City’s population, senior households represent approximately

21.2% of total households, which is primarily due to the smaller senior household size.

Table 32 summarizes senior households by age and tenure. The majority of senior households are owners (5,324 or 87.4%). Approximately 12.6% of senior households (768), are renters. Lake Forest has a slightly higher percentage of owner-occupied elderly households than Orange County (18.5% vs. 18.1%), but a lower percentage of renter-occupied elderly households (2.7% vs. 5.8%). Elderly renters tend to prefer affordable units in smaller single-story structures or multi-story structur es with an elevator, clos e to health facilities, services, transportation, and entertainment.

During the planning period, senior households are anticipated to increase at a rate commensurate with overall population and household growth. It is anticipated that approximately 21% of the City’s RHNA allocation will be needed or used by senior households. Senior housing types can include market rate homes, senior single- family housing communities, senior apartments, and mobile/manufactured homes.

TABLE 32: HOUSEHOLDER AGE BY TENURE (2018)
Age Group
Owners Renters
Number Percent Number Percent
65-74 years 3,429 64.4% 473 61.6%
75-84 years 1,494 28.1% 105 13.7%
85 plus years 401 7.5% 190 24.7%
TOTAL
5,324

18.5%
(of total
pop.)
768

2.7%
(of total
pop.)
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS

TABLE 31: SENIOR POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
(2010 & 2018)
Population 2010 2018
Number 7,011 10,801
Percent Change - 54.1%
Annual Percent
Change - 6.8%
Households 2010 2018
Number 3,899 6,092
Percent Change - 56.2%
Annual Percent
Change - 7.0%
Source: US Census, 2010; US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-49 The 2014-2018 ACS survey indicates that 9.9% of senior households in Lake Forest are below the poverty level. It is likely that a portion of these senior house holds overpay for housing due to their limited income.

The median income of households with a head of household that is 65 years and over is $64,289; significantly less (38.4%) than the all-ages median household income of $104,449.

Senior Housing
A variety of housing types are available to the senior population. This section focuses on three basic types.

Independent Living – Housing for healthy seniors who are self-sufficient and want the freedom and privacy of their own apartment or house. Many seniors age in place, and others move to residential communities which provide enhanced security, amenities and social activities geared towards a senior community.

Group Living – Shared living arrangements in which seniors live in proximity to their peers and have access to activities and special services.

Assisted Living – Provides the greatest level of support, including meal preparation and assistance with other activities of daily living.

There are a number of licensed community care facilities in Lake Forest operating out of homes that serve elderly persons. Furthermore, there is one commercially operating assisted living residential care facilities for the elderly in the City:
 Freedom Village, 23442 El Toro Road – senior living community offering independent and assisted living, and Alzheimer’s care
Several programs address the non-housing needs of seni ors in Lake Forest. Additional support for senior residents is provided by the City-operated Clubhouse S enior Center, which serves as the primary site for senior programs offered by the City. Some of the programs and services provided at the Clubhouse include health screening and health care counseling, legal assi stance, and driver safety courses. The City also partners with and funds the non-profit Age Well Senior Services organization to provide senior transportation services.

DISABLED PERSONS
A “disability” includes, but is not limited to, any physical or mental di sability as defined in California Government Code Section 12926. A “mental disability” involves having any mental or psychological disorder or condition that limits a major life activity. A “physical disability” involves having any physiological disease, disorder, condition, cosmetic disfigurement, or anatom ical loss that affects body systems. In addition, a mental or physical disability limits a major life activity by making the achievement of major life activities difficult including physical, mental, and social activities and working.

Physical, mental, and/or developmental disabilities could prevent a person from working, restrict a person’s mobility, or make caring for oneself difficult. Therefore, disabled persons often require special housing needs related to potential limited earning capacity, the lack of accessible and affordable housing, and higher health costs associated with disab ilities. Additionally, people with disabilit ies require a wide range of different housing, depending on the type and severity of their dis ability. Housing needs can range from institutional care facilities to facilities that support partial or full independence (i.e., group care homes). Supportive services such as daily living skills and employment assistance may ne ed to be integrated in the housing situation.
 Individuals with a mobility, visual, or hearing limitation may require housing that is physically accessible. Examples of accessibility in housin g include widened doorways and hallways, ramps, kitchen and bathroom modifications (e.g., lowered countertops, grab bars, adjustable shower heads, etc.) and special sensory devices including smoke alarms and flashing lights.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-50  Individuals with self-care limitations (which can in clude persons with mobility difficulties) may require residential environments that include in-home or on -site support services ranging from congregate to convalescent care. Support services may incl ude medical therapy, daily living assistance, congregate dining, and related services.
 Individuals with developmental disabilities and ot her physical and mental conditions that prevent them from functioning independently may require assisted care or group home environments.  Individuals with disabilities may require financial assistance to meet their housing needs because a higher percentage than the population at large are low-income and their special housing needs are often more costly than conventional housing.

According to the 2014-2018 ACS, there were 5,920 persons with one or more disabilities in Lake Forest. Of the disabled population, 55.0% were aged 5 to 64 and 44.6% were aged 65 and over. No disabilities were reported in the population aged 5 and under (except for hearing difficulty – 21 persons under 5 years of age).

Table 33 shows the number of persons with one or more disability by type of disability.

TABLE 33: DISABILITIES BY DISABILITY TYPE (2018)
Type of Disability
Persons Ages 5-64 Persons Ages 65+ Total
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Hearing Difficulty 812 24.9% 1,308 49.5% 2,141 36.2%
Vision Difficulty 456 14.0% 399 15.1% 855 14.4%
Cognitive Difficulty 1,480 45.4% 638 24.2% 2,118 35.8%
Ambulatory Difficulty 1,066 32.7% 1,568 59.4% 2,634 44.5% Self-Care Difficulty 567 17.4% 663 25.1% 1,230 20.8%
Independent Living
Difficulty 1,160 35.6% 1,282 48.5% 2,442 41.3%
Total Persons with One
or More Disabilities 1 3,258
100% /

55.0% of
disabled
2,641
100% /

44.6% of
disabled
5,920 100%
1A person may have more than one disability, so the total disabilities may exceed the total persons with a disability Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
As shown in Table 34, the 2014-2018 ACS indicates that for individuals between the ages of 16 and 64, approximately 1,286 persons had some form or type of disability and were not in the labor force. This indicates that their disability may impede their ability to earn an adequate income, which in turn could affect their ability to afford suitable housing accommodations to meet their special needs. Therefore, many in this group may need housing assistance.

TABLE 34: DISABLED PERSONS BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS (2018)
Ages 16 to 64 Percent
Employed with Disability 1,261 44.9%
Unemployed with Disability 260 9.3%
Not in Labor Force 1,286 45.8%
Total 2,807 100%
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
While recent Census data does not provide income levels or overpayment data for persons with a disability, the 2014-2018 ACS survey does report on indicators that relate to a disabled person’s or household’s income.

The 2014-2018 ACS data indicates that 583 Lake Forest residents with a disability are below the poverty Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-51 level. It is likely that a portion of these disabled perso ns are in households that overpay for housing due to their limited income. The 2014-2018 ACS data indicates that 15.7% of households receiving food stamps or similar assistance have a disabled member. Of the 4,521 households with a disabled member, 284 households receive food stamps or similar assistance. The 2014-2018 ACS data indicates that the median earnings for males 16 years of age and older with a disability was $24,453 compared with $60,898 for males with no disability. Median earnings for females 16 y ears of age and older with a disability was $29,500, compared to $41,142 for females with no disability.

The persons in the “with a disability” category in Tables 3-31 and 3-32 include persons with developmental disabilities. “Developmental disability” means “a disability that originates before an individual attains age 18 years, continues, or can be expected to continue, indefinitely, and constitutes a substantial disability for that individual.” This term includes intellectual disability, cerebral palsy, epilepsy, autism, and disabling conditions found to be closely related to intellectual disability or to require treatment similar to that required for individuals with intellectual disabilities, but does not include othe r handicapping conditions that are solely physical in nature.

While the U.S. Census reports on a broad range of disabilities, the Census does not identify the subpopulation that has a developmental disability. The California Department of Developmental Services (DDS) maintains data regarding people with developmental disabilities, defined as those with severe, life-long disabilities attributable to mental and/or physical impairments. The DDS data is reported by zip code, so the data reflects a larger area than the City of Lake Forest; however, the data was joined at the jurisdiction level by SCAG to approximate the counts for Lake Forest. The DDS/SCAG data indicates that 452 developmentally disabled persons reside in zip codes 92610, 92630, and 92679. Table 35 breaks down the developmentally disabled population by residence type. Of t hese persons, the majority (366) live at home with a parent or guardian and only 29 live independently.

TABLE 35: DEVELOPMENTALLY DISABLED PERSONS BY RESIDENCE TYPE (2018)

Home of
Parent/
Guardian
Independe
nt/
Supported
Living
Communit
y Care
Facility
Intermedi
ate Care
Facility
Foster/
Family
Home
Other TOTAL
Lake Forest* 366 29 36 11 5 5 452
*Data is for the Lake Forest portion of zip codes 92610, 92630, and 92679 Sources: CA DDS, 2020; SCAG 6th Cycle Data Package
Housing for Disabled Persons
Households with a disabled member will require a mixt ure of housing units with accessibility features, in- home care, or group care housing facilities. Some of these households will have a member with a developmental disability and are expected to have special housing needs. Developmentally disabled persons may live with a family in a typical single-family or multi-family home, but some developmentally disabled persons with more severe disabilities may have special housing needs that may include extended family homes, group homes, small and large residential care facilities, intermediate care, and skilled nursing facilities, and affordable housing such as extremely low/very low/lo w-income housing (both rental and ownership), Section 8/housing choice vouchers, and single room occupancy-type units.

Although there are no Adult Residential Facilities for Persons with Special Health Care Needs, including physical, mental, and developmental disabilities in La ke Forest, there are ten licensed adult residential facilities operating in the City as of August 2021. Furthermore, there are service providers operating in the City such as BrightStar Care that provide in-home ca re to support people with disabilities like spina bifida and cerebral palsy. The Regional Center of Orange Co unty offers services and support for persons with developmental disabilities by referrin g consumers to specific programs that meet t heir respective housing, work, educational, and leisure needs. In addition, in an effort to assist persons with developmental disabilities, Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-52 the City previously and for many years allocated part of its CDBG funding to the non-profit Vocational Visions organization, which offers vocational training and support services for consumers through community supported employment. 3 Residents with dis abilities can also benefit from services offered by the Dayle McIntosh Center for the Disabled – South County Br anch in neighboring Laguna Hills. The center offers disabled persons a variety of services including peer support and advocacy, along with housing referral, and rental and hotel/motel assistance if needed.

The 2014-2018 ACS data indicates that for individuals between the ages of 5 and 64, approximately 1.3% of the total population of Lake Forest have an ambulatory di fficulty, 0.5% have a vision difficulty, 1.0% have a hearing difficulty, and 1.4% have an independent living difficulty. These types of disabilities may impede their ability to find suitable housing accommodations to meet their special needs. Therefore, many in these groups may need housing assistance. Households containi ng disabled persons may also need housing with universal design measures or special features to allow better physical mobility for occupants.

The 2014-18 ACS data also indicates that 4,521 households (15.7%) in Lake Forest had one or more disabled persons, including developmentally dis abled persons. It is ant icipated that this rate will remain the same during the planning period. Housing needed for person s with a disability during the planning period is anticipated to include community care facilities or at-home supportive services for persons with an independent living difficulty or self-care difficulty (approximately 4.4% of the population), as well as housing that is equipped to serve persons with ambulatory and sensory disabilities. Approximately 15% of the City’s RHNA allocation, 484 units, may need to have universal des ign measures or be accessible to persons with a disability.

LARGE FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS
Large-family households are defined by the US Census Bureau as households of five or more persons.

Large-family households are considered a special need s group because there is often a limited supply of adequately sized housing to accommodate their needs. Generally, the more persons in a household, the more rooms are needed to accommodate that household. Specifically, to avoid being considered living in overcrowded conditions, a five-person household would require three or four bedrooms, a six-person household would require four bedrooms, and a seven-person household would require four to six bedrooms.

In Lake Forest, 2,852 households (9.9% of all households) have five or more persons as described in Table

21. Of the large households, 67.0% own their home and 33.0% rent. Typically, there are more owner- occupied large households that are cost burdened when compared to renter households and the population as a whole. However, the 2014-2018 ACS survey does not provide data regarding overpayment for large households. Table 36 compares the median income for households with five or more persons to the Citywide median income for 2018. For each large-family categor y, the median household income was higher versus the Citywide median of $104,449.

TABLE 36: MEDIAN INCOME BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE (2018)
Size Median Income
5-Person Households $152,095
6-Person Households $145,714
7 or More Person Households $124,087
Median Household Income (All Households) $104,449
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
Large families can have a difficult time finding housing units large enough to meet their needs. In Lake Forest, there appears to be a significant amount of both ownership housing and rental housing available to provide units with enough bedrooms for larger households. T able 37 identifies the number of large households by

3 Vocational Visions did not apply for Fiscal Year 2021-2022 funding.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-53 household size versus the number of large owner and rental units. While there are sufficient units in Lake Forest to accommodate large owner and renter households, it does not mean there is a match between housing units that exist and large families. As desc ribed in Table 20, 2.1% of owner-occupied homes and

10.7% of renter-occupied homes are overcrowded.

TABLE 37: HOUSEHOLD SIZE VERSUS BEDROOM SIZE BY TENURE (2018) Tenure 3 BR
Units
5 Person Households
4+ BR
Units
6 Person and Larger
Households
House-
holds
Shortfall/
Excess
House-
holds
Shortfall/
Excess
Owner 7,171 1,274 5,897 8,511 637 7,874
Renter 1,707 570 1,137 826 371 455
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
Large households typically require housing units with more bedrooms than needed by smaller households.

In general, housing for these households should provide safe outdoor play areas for children and should be located to provide convenient access to schools and childcare facilities. These types of needs can pose problems particularly for large families that cannot afford to buy or rent single-family houses. It is anticipated that approximately 10% of the RHNA units will be needed to accommodate large households and an emphasis should be placed on ensuring rental units are available to large households.

SINGLE PARENT AND FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS
Single parent households are households with children under the age of 18 at home and include both male- and female-headed households. These households generally have a higher ratio between their income and their living expenses (that is, living expenses take up a la rger share of income than is generally the case in two-parent households). Ther efore, finding affordable, decent, and safe housing is often more difficult for single parent and female-headed households. Additional ly, single parent and female-headed households have special needs involving access to daycare or childcare, health care, and other supportive services.

While the majority of households in Lake Forest are ei ther couples or single person households, 21.8% of family households are headed by a single male or single female. There are 1,226 male heads of household with no spouse present and 413 of these households ha ve children under 18. There is a larger number of female householders with no spouse present – 3,378 households or 11.8% of family households – and 1,702 of these female-headed households have children under 18. Table 38 identifies single parent households by gender of the householder and presence of children.

The median income of female-headed households ( no spouse present) is $6 8,933, 17.4% less than the median income of a male-headed, no spouse pres ent family ($83,458) and 34.0% less than the median income of all households in the City ($104,449). A pproximately 3.2% of househo lds are under the poverty level while 18.9% of female-headed households with related children under 18 years of age are under the poverty level.

TABLE 38: FAMILIES AND FEMALE HOUSEHOLDER WITH CHILDREN UNDER 18 (2018) Category Number Percent
Total Families 21,128 100%
Male householder, no wife present 1,226 4.3%
With children under 18 413 1.4%
Female householder, no husband present 3,378 11.8%
With children under 18 1,702 5.9%
Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-54 As Lake Forest’s population and households grow, there will be a continued need for supportive services for single parent households with children present.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-55 In addition, the creation of innovat ive housing for female-headed households could include co-housing developments where childcare and meal preparation responsibilities can be shared. The economies of scale available in this type of housing would be advantageous to this special-needs group as well as all other low- income household groups. Limited equity cooperatives sponsored by non-profit housing developers are another financing structure that could be considered for the benefit of all special-needs groups.

FARMWORKERS
Farmworkers are traditionally defined as persons whose primary incomes are earned through permanent or seasonal agricultural labor. Following changes in the area’s economy, Orange County today is a mostly developed urban/suburban region with a strong local economy that is not tied to an agricultural base. While there are still active farming areas on the Irvine Ranch and in other cities, shifts in the County’s economy to manufacturing, technology, and service-oriented sectors have significantly curtailed agricultural production.

Furthermore, the only agricultural operation existing in Lake Forest in recent years – the 126-acre Nakase Brothers Wholesale Nursery, closed in 2020. The site was approved for redevelopment in January 2020. A master-planned community designed to include more than 540 housing units will be developed on the Nakase site.

The 2014-2018 ACS data estimates that only 140 (less than 1% of the working population) of Lake Forest’s residents were employed in agriculture (or related industries – forestry, fishing and hunting, mining) in 2018.

Given the limited active agriculture operations in and around the City, the number of residents employed in agriculture as opposed to those employed in forestry, fishing and hunting, or mining is likely to be smaller than 140. In addition, it is possible (although statistics are not available) that a number of active farmworkers are not full-time residents of Lake Forest and migrate into the area depending on seasonal crop harvest. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that there were just 340 migrant farmworkers in Orange County in 2017. USDA estimates that 666 farmworkers worked seasonally (hired for a period of less than 150 days) in Orange County in 2017, while 1,106 farmworkers in Orange County were permanent (hired for a period of greater than or equal to 150 days). Such farmworkers may find temporary housing by living with relatives, or short-term rental of a single unit for several families, resulting in overcrowded conditions.

Although there is not a significant nee d for farmworker housing in Lake Forest, the City allows agricultural uses within the A-1 and OS zones, and therefore farmworker housing must be allowed as an accessory use pursuant the California Employee Housing Act. The City revised the Zoning Code in June 2015 to comply with the California Employee Housing Act.

HOMELESS PERSONS
Government Code Section 65583(a)(7) requires that the Housing Element include an analysis of the needs of homeless persons and families. Homeless pers ons are defined as those who lack a fixed and adequate residence. People who are homeless may be chronica lly homeless (perhaps due to substance abuse or mental health issues) or situationally homeless (perhaps resulting from job loss or family strife). Homeless people face critical housing challenges due to their very low incomes and lack of appropriate housing. Thus, State law requires jurisdictions to plan to help meet the needs of their homeless populations.

The law also requires that each jurisdiction address community needs and available resources for special housing opportunities known as transitional and suppo rtive housing. These housing types provide the opportunity for families and individuals to “transition” from a homeless condition to permanent housing, often with the assistance of suppor tive services to assist in dividuals in gaining necessary life skills in support of independent living.

Homeless Estimates
Counting the homeless population is problematic due to their transient nature; however, through the efforts of the Orange County Continuum of Care (CoC) estimates have been developed. The Orange County CoC is a consortium of individuals and organizations wi th the common purpose of developing and implementing a strategy to address homelessness in Orange County. The Orange County CoC is responsible for managing U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funds for homelessness and is uniquely Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-56 positioned to identify system needs and take steps to address them with the collaboration and partnership of community stakeholders.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-57 As the primary coordinating body for homeless issues and assistance for the entire county, the Orange County CoC accomplishes a host of activities and programs vital to the County, including a biennial point-in- time “snapshot” survey to identify and assess the needs of both the shelter ed and unsheltered homeless.

Orange County’s 2019 Point-In-Time sheltered count t ook place the night of T uesday, January 22, 2019.

Emergency shelters and transitional housing programs co llected client-level demographic information from individuals and families staying the night in each program. The 2019 Point-In-Time unsheltered count process took place over two days, Wednesday, January 23 and Thursday, January 24, to ensure the 800 square mile County jurisdiction was canvassed effectively.

The 2019 Point-In-Time Report identified 112 people in the City of Lake Forest experiencing homelessness, representing 1.6% of Orange County’s total homeless count (6,860 individuals). An estimated 76 (67.9%) of the 112 homeless individuals in Lake Forest were unsheltered and an estimated 36 (32.1%) were sheltered.

From the 2017 to the 2019 Homeless Count, there wa s an increase of homeless individuals counted in Orange County from 4,792 to 6,860, which is a 43% increase. This has been a greater increase in the County of homeless counts compared to previous years. In comparison, from 2015 to 2017, there was a 14% increase in the homeless count in Orange County. Prim arily, the increase from 2017 to 2019 in the County was unsheltered individuals, which increased from 2,584 individuals in 2017 to 3,961 individuals in 2019.

Housing Accommodations
In 2013, the City amended the Zoning Code to allow 1) em ergency shelters by right in the City’s industrial zoning districts, subject to compliance with objective standards consistent with the requirements identified in Government Code Section 65583(a)(4), and 2) transitional and supportive housing by right in all residential zoning districts and subject only to the same requirements for residential uses of the same type (e.g., single- family or multi-family) in the same zone. The Ho using Plan includes policies and programs directed to encourage the provision of housing and services for the homeless population as well as persons and households at-risk of homelessness.

Currently (2021), there are several transitional housing units operating in the City. Lake Forest also supports a regional effort among the various local agencies ma king up the South Service Planning Area of Orange County, which includes 12 cities (Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, and San Juan Capistrano).

The most recent inventory of resources available within Orange County for emergency shelters, transitional housing, and permanent supportive housing units comes from the 2019 Housing Inventory reported to HUD by the Orange County CoC. Table 39 shows the total num ber of beds offered by homeless facilities in the Orange County CoC area.

TABLE 39: HOMELESS FACILITIES (2019)*
Facility Type
Orange County CoC Region
Family Units Family Beds Adult-Only
Beds
Total Year-
Round Beds
Emergency Shelter 170 574 1,401 1,989
Transitional Housing 272 816 289 1,105
Permanent Supportive Housing 213 518 1,725 2,243
Rapid Re-Housing 149 615 159 774
Other Permanent Housing 8 16 92 108
TOTAL UNITS/BEDS 812 2,539 3,666 6,219
*Numbers are for the total Orange County Continuum of Care region for which Lake Forest is a participating member Source: HUD 2019 Continuum of Care Homeless Assistance Programs, Housing Inventory Count Report Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-58  Emergency Shelters – Six emergency shelters are availabl e to provide services in the South Service Planning Area of the CoC jurisdiction – CSP Youth Shelter (Laguna Beach), Cold Weather Shelter (Laguna Beach), Friendship Shelter (Laguna Beach), Gilchrist House (San Clemente), Human Options (Irvine), and Laura’s House (San Clemente). According to the HUD 2019 Continuum of Care Housing Inventory Count Report for t he Orange County CoC, a total of 1,989 year-round emergency shelter beds and 400 seasonal beds are available in the Orange County CoC region.

During the 2019 point-in-time survey, the CoC f ound that the average occupancy for emergency shelter beds was 79.2%.
 Transitional Housing – Sometimes referred to as “bridge” housing, provides housing accommodations and support services for persons and families, but restricts occupancy to no more than 24 months. In the Orange County CoC region, a total of 1,105 transitional housing beds are provided. Transitional housing providers nearest to Lake Forest include Families Forward, Friendship Shelter, Henderson House, Hope’s House, Gilchrist House, Kathy’s House, Laura’s House, South County Outreach, and Toby’s House. The 2019 poi nt-in-time survey found that the average occupancy for transitional housing beds was 78.2% at the time of the survey.  Permanent Supportive Housing – Supportive housing has no limit on length of stay and is linked to onsite or offsite services that assist residents in retaining the housing, improving their health status, and maximizing their ability to live and, when poss ible, work in the community. A total of 2,243 permanent housing beds are provided in the Orange County CoC region.  Rapid Re-Housing – Rapid re-housing provides short-term rental assistance and services. The goals are to help people obtain housing quickly, increase self-sufficiency, and stay housed.  Other Permanent Housing – Consists of permanent housing with services (no disability required for entry) and permanent housing with housing only.

Assessment of Need
Based on the available information, there is a countywide homeless population of 6,860 persons but only 6,219 beds, indicating an unmet demand for 641 homeless persons. It is noted that the 2019 Point-in-Time survey identified 2,899 sheltered homeless persons and 3,961 unsheltered homeless persons (36 sheltered and 76 unsheltered for Lake Forest). The discrepancy between sheltered homeless persons and the County’s total capacity to house homeless persons indicates a need for additional community services resources to assist and match the homeless population with the Countywide shelter and housing resources. Overall, the average bed-utilization rate for emergency shelters is 79.2% and is 78.2% for transitional housing, according to the Point-in-Time survey information. Although there are seasonal fluctuations in bed counts, these figures demonstrate a demand for supportive housing.
3I. Units at Risk of Conversion

ASSISTED HOUSING AT RISK OF CONVERSION
California housing element law requires jurisdictions to provide an analysis of low-income, assisted multi- family housing units that are eligible to change from low-income housing uses during the next 10 years (2021- 2031) due to termination of subsidy contracts, mort gage prepayment, or expiration of restrictions on use (Government Code 65583). These units risk the terminat ion of various subsidy groups which could convert certain multifamily housing from affordable to market rate. State law requires housing elements to assess at- risk housing in order to project any potential loss of affordable housing.

The California Housing Partnership (CHP) provides data on assisted housing units, including those in Lake Forest.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-59 Table 40 indicates the extent of subsidized multifamily rental housing in the City, the subsidy programs that are in place for each project, and the likelihood of current housing assisted projects to convert to market rate projects that would not provide assistance to lower income residents. The City has identified 11 units at-risk of conversion during the next 10 years (2 at moderate risk, 8 at high risk, and 1 at very high risk).

TABLE 40: SUMMARY OF AT-RISK SUBSIDIZED HOUSING UNITS
Project/Address
No. & Type
of Units
Type of
Subsidy Current Owner
Earliest
Date of
Conversion Risk
Shelter for The Homeless
(formerly American Family
Housing)
20927 Serrano Creek Road
1 / affordable CDBG Shelter for The
Homeless 2024 High
Saguaro Apartments
23201 Saguaro Street 4 / affordable
Purchased
from Lake
Forest
Housing
Authority
Families Forward 2071 Low
SCO Transitional Housing
Condo Units
1 /
transitional CDBG
South County Outreach
2022 Very
High
1 /
transitional CDBG 2023 High
2 /
transitional CDBG 2024 High
2 /
transitional CDBG 2025 High
2 /
transitional CDBG 2026 High
Madrid Transitional Housing
Condo Units
22702, 22706 Madrid Drive
2 Family
Redevelop
ment
Agency
Housing
Set-Aside
Unreserved
Funds
2030 Moderate
The Arroyo at Baker Ranch
100 Indigo Place 187 Family LIHTC Meta Housing
Corporation 2069 Low
Sources: California Housing Partnership, January 2021; SCAG 6th Cycle Data Package

PRESERVATION OPTIONS
Depending on the circumstances of the at-risk projects, different options may be used to preserve or replace the units. The following discussion high lights ways that the City’s eight ve ry high- or high-risk units (SCO Transitional Housing Condo Units) could be preserved as affordable housing. All of the presented alternatives are costly and beyond the ability of the City of Lake Forest to manage without large amounts of subsidy from federal and/or state resources.

Option 1: Replacement Through New Construction of Replacement Units The construction of of new lower income housing units is a means of replacing the at-risk units should they be converted to market-rate. The cost of developing new housing depends on a variety of factors such as density, size of units, location and related land cost s, and type of construction. Assuming an average development cost of $ 200350,000 per unit for condominium housing, replacement of the 8 11 at-risk units Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-60 would require approximately $ 1,600,0003,850,000, excluding land costs, which vary depending upon location.

Purchase of Replacement Units
One preservation option is for a non-profit organization to purchase similar units. By purchasing similar units, a non-profit organization can secure lower-income restrictions and potentially enable the project to become eligible for a greater range of governmental assistan ce. The cost of purchasing similar units depends on a number of factors, including the market conditions at the time, occupancy rate, and the physical condition of the units to be acquired.

Current market value for the at-risk units is estimated on the basis of the units’ potential annual income, and operating and maintenance expenses. The estimated mark et value of Lake Forest’s current stock of at-risk affordable housing is $2,500,000. This estimate is provided for the purpose of comparison and understanding the magnitude of costs involved and does not represent the precise market value of the at-risk units or units that could be purchased to offset converted units. The actual market value at time of sale would depend on market and property conditions, lease-out/turnover rates, among other factors.

Option 2: Purchase of Affordability Covenants
Another option to preserve the affordability of at-risk projects is to provide an incentive package to the owners to maintain the projects as affordable housing. Incentives could include writing down the interest rate on the remaining loan balance, and/or supplementing the subsidy amount received to market levels.

To purchase the affordability covenant on these proj ects, an incentive package should include interest subsidies at or below what the property owners can obtain in the open market. To enhance the attractiveness of the incentive package, the interest subsidies may need to be combined with rent subsidies that supplement the HUD fair market rent levels.

Option 3: Rental Assistance
Tenant-based rent subsidies could be used to preserve the affordability of housing. Rent subsidies using alternative State or local funding sources could be used to maintain affordability. Subsidies could be structured similar to the Section 8 program, where HUD pays the owners the difference between what tenants can afford to pay (30% income) and what HUD establishes as the Fair Market Rent. The level of the subsidy required to preserve the at-risk units is estimated to equal the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a unit minus the housing cost affordable by a very low-income household. Approximately $5,2566,105 in rent subsidies would be required monthly (or $36,07273,260 annually). Assuming a 20-year affordability period, the total subsidy is about $ 1,261,4401,465,000, and assuming a 55-year affo rdability period, the total subsidy is about $4,029,300. .

Cost Comparisons
In terms of cost effectiveness for pr eservation of the 11 at-risk units, 55 years’ worth of rent subsidies ($4 million) is fairly comparable to the cost of construction of replacement units ($3.85 million); however the cost identified to construct replacement units excludes the price of land, which can add a significant expense to the overall project. While the cost of purchasing the affo rdability covenants is unknown, it is possible that it would provide a cost-effective strategy for preservi ng the at-risk units and should be explored further to support the City’s preservation objectives. The following are strategies the City will undertake to work towards preservation of the 11 at-risk units in these projects:
• Monitor At-Risk Units: Contact property owners with in at least one year of the affordability expiration date to discuss City’s desire to preserve as affordable housing. • Explore Funding Sources/Program Options: As ne cessary, contract with the California Housing Partnership Corporation to explore outside funding sources and program options for preservation. • Purchase of Affordabilit y Covenants: Proactively identify potential partners interested in purchasing Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-61 and extending expiring affordability covenants.
• Tenant Education: Property owners are required to give a twelve-month notice of their intent to opt out of low-income use re strictions. The City will work with tenants, and as necessary contact specialists like the California Housing Partnership to provide education regarding tenant rights and conversion procedures.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-62

ESTIMATES OF HOUSING NEED
Several factors influence the degree of demand, or "need," for housing in Lake Forest. The major needs categories considered in this element include:
• Housing needs resulting from the overcrowding of units • Housing needs that result when households pay more than they can afford for housing • Housing needs of "special needs groups" such as elderly, large families, female-headed households, households with a disabled person, farm workers, students, and the homeless State law requires that cities quantify existing housing need in their Housing Element.

Table 41 summarizes those findings.

TABLE 41: SUMMARY OF NEEDS
Summary of Households/Persons with Identified Housing Need Percent of Total City Population/Households
Households Overpaying for Housing:
% of Renter Households Overpaying 50.6%
% of Owner Households Overpaying 28.1%
% of Extremely Low income Households (0-30% AMI) Overpaying 80.5% % of very low income Households (0-30% AMI) Overpaying 76.6% % of Low income Households (0-30% AMI) Overpaying 63.7% Overcrowded Households
% of Overcrowded Renter Households 10.7%
% of Overcrowded Owner Households 2.1%
% of All Overcrowded Households 4.8%
Special Needs Groups:

Elderly Households

13.1% of pop.

21.2% of households
Disabled Persons 7.1% of pop.

Developmentally Disabled Persons 0.5% of pop
Large Households 9.9% of households
Female Headed Households 11.8% of households
Female Headed Households with Children 5.9% of households Farmworkers 0.2% of labor force
Homeless 112 persons (2019)
Affordable Housing Units At-Risk of Conversion to Market Rate Costs 811 Source: US Census, 2014-2018 ACS; Orange County Regional Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice Item: 11
385

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-63

4. Constraints

Constraints to housing development are defined as government measures or non-governmental conditions that limit the amount or timing of residential development.

Government regulations can constrain the supply of housing available in a community if the regulations limit the opportunities to develop housing, impose requirements that unnecessarily increase the cost to develop housing, or make the development process so arduous as to discourage housing developers. State law requires housing elements to contain an analysis of the governmental constraints on housing maintenance, improvement, and development (Government Code Section 65583(a)(4)).

Non-governmental constraints (required to be analyzed under Government Code Section 65583(a)(5)) may include land prices, construction costs, and financing. While local governments cannot control prices or costs, identification of these constraints can be helpful to Lake Forest in formulating housing programs. 4A. Governmental Constraints
Housing affordability is affected by factors in both the private and public sectors. Actions by the City can have an impact on the price and availability of housing in Lake Forest. Land use controls, site improvement requirements, building codes, fees, and other local programs intended to improve the overall quality of housing may also serve as a constraint to housing de velopment. These governmental constraints can limit the operations of the public, private, and non-profit se ctors, making it difficult to meet the demand for affordable housing and limiting supply in a region. All City zoning regulations, development standards, specific plans, and fees are posted online and available to the public, consistent with the transparency requirements of AB 1483. Upon adoption of new mixed-use zoning, updated information and maps will continue to be made available online in accordance with transparency requirements.

LAND USE CONTROLS
Local land use policies and regulations impact the pric e and availability of housing, including affordable housing. This section discusses the General Plan land use designations and provisions in the Zoning Code that specify the types of housing allowed within Lake Forest as a potential governmental constraint.

General Plan
The General Plan Land Use Element establishes land us e designations that specify the allowed types, locations, and intensities or densities of land uses in the City. The Zoning Code (Title 9 of the Municipal Code) implements the General Plan by providing land use regulations and development standards for each zoning district. shows General Plan residential land uses designations, the most common corresponding zoning designation(s), and permitted densities allowed for housing as specified in the General Plan.

Item: 11
386

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-64 TABLE 42: GENERAL PLAN RESIDENTIAL LAND USE DESIGNATIONS General Plan
Designation 1 Description Zoning District
Very Low Density
Residential (VLDR)
Provide for development of single-family dwellings and
accessory buildings. Allows a density of 0-2 du/ac.

R1 – Single-Family
Residential District
RS – Residential
Single-Family
District
Low Density
Residential (LDR)
Provide for development of single-family dwellings and
accessory buildings. Allows a density of 2-7 du/ac.

R1 – Single-Family
Residential District
RS – Residential
Single-Family
District
Low-Medium
Density Residential
Provides for development of a wide range of living
accommodations, including single-family detached and
attached dwelling units, mobile homes, duplexes, and
multiple-family dwellings, such as townhomes,
condominiums, apartments, and cooperatives. Allows a
density of 7-15 du/ac
R4 – Suburban
Multi-Family
Residential District
RP – Residential
Professional District
Medium Density
(MDR) Residential
For the development of a wide range of living
accommodations, including single-family dwellings, and
multiple-family dwellings, such as townhomes,
condominiums, apartments, and cooperatives. This
designation allows for a density of 15-25 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District
High-Density
Residential (HDR)
For the development of a wide range of living
accommodations, including single-family dwelling units
and multiple-family dwellings, such as townhomes,
condominiums, apartments, and cooperatives. This
designation allows a density of 25 – 43 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District
Mixed-Use 32
(MU-32)
For mixtures of commercial, office, and residential uses in the same building, on the same parcel of land, or within the same area. This designation allows a maximum
density of 32 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District1
Mixed-Use 43
(MU-43)
For mixtures of commercial, office, and residential uses in the same building, on the same parcel of land, or within the same area. This designation allows a maximum
density of 43 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District1
Urban Industrial 25
(UI-25)
For a mix of traditional light industrial and commercial uses, as well as live-work units and home-based
businesses. This designation allows a maximum density
of 25 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District1
Urban Industrial 43
(UI-43)
For a mix of traditional light industrial and commercial uses, as well as live-work units and home-based
businesses. This designation allows a maximum density
of 43 du/ac.

R2 – Multi-family
Dwelling District1

1. The City is preparing new mixed-use zoning standards to implement the mixed-use land use designations identified in the General Plan. New mixed-use zoning for these areas will be adopted by early 2022 and will be consistent with the densities set forth by land use designations in the General Plan. Until the adoption of new mixed-use development standards, the current zoning standards apply.

2. The City has numerous zones associated with its Planned Communities, as described below. Zones contained within a Planned Community must be consistent with the General Plan Land Use Designation and provide standards specific to the Planned Community.

Sources: City of Lake Forest General Plan, 2020; City of Lake Forest Zoning Code, 2021 Item: 11
387

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-65 Planned Communities
Much of the land use in Lake Forest is based on pr e-incorporation planning for ten largescale Planned Communities (PCs). The existing PCs include Baker Ranch, El Toro, F oothill Ranch, Lake Forest, Nakase, Pacific Commercentre, Portola Hills, Rancho de Los Alisos, Rancho Serrano, and Serrano Highlands.

Several of these PCs are the subject of development agreements that specify the density of development allowed. Future development in these areas must comply with the PC District regulations and any applicable development agreement.

Many of the development standards found in the PCs are similar to the R1 and RS zoning found in the City’s Zoning Code. Two of the largest PCs, Lake Forest PC and Rancho De Los Alisos PC, allow for smaller and more flexible side yard setbacks and allow for cluster development. Several PCs include a “High Density Residential” or “Heavy Density Residential” zone, which allow a variety of multi-family residential uses. The Baker Ranch, Foothill Ranch, and Portola Hills Planned Communities have mixed-use zones.

Zoning Code
Land use policies in the General Plan are implemented primarily through the Zoning Code. The Zoning Code provides for a range of densities and residential uses and is designed to protect and promote the health, safety, and general welfare of residents, which includes preserving the character and integrity of established residential neighborhoods. To that end, the City has est ablished specific development standards that apply to residential construction in various districts. These may include, but are not limited to, density, lot coverage, building height, parking standards, and other requirement s. The City initiated an update to its Zoning Code in early 2021 to develop new mixed-use zoning standards to implement the City’s 2040 General Plan. These standards will be adopted by early 2022.

Table 43 through Table 53 show development standards in the Zoning Code.

Item: 11
388

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-66 TABLE 43: RESIDENTIAL ZONING DISTRICTS FROM ZONING CODE Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street
R.O.W.

B – Five (5) feet: and one (1) foot for each additional story over two (2).

C – Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined.

D – In computing the depth or a rear setback from any building where such setback opens on an alley, private street, public park or public beach, one-half of the width of such alley, street park or beach may be deemed to be a portion of the rear setback, except that under this provision, no rear setback shall be less than fifteen (15) feet.

Item: 11
389

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-67 TABLE 44: BAKER RANCH PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street
R.O.W.

N/A N/A
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes:

M - A minimum 8 foot setback is required from building elevations with a front entry.

N - Planning Area 5B has a 35 foot maximum height.

P - A single family dwelling unit has maximum height of 35 feet.

Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-68 TABLE 45: EL TORO PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft)
From Ultimate
Street R.O.W.

Item: 11
391

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-69 TABLE 46: FOOTHILL RANCH PLANNED COMMUNITY Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft)
From Ultimate
Street R.O.W.

Setbacks (ft) from
property line not
abutting a street
Setbacks Panhandle
building site from any
property line
Minimum Lot Size (sq ft)
Minimum distance (ft)
between Principal
Structures
Maximum Building
Height (ft)
Maximum Lot Coverage
Area (sq ft) per Unit
Front
Side
Rear
Side
Rear
Detached
(conventional) 5* 10 10 C 10 N/A 3,000 N/A 35 N/A N/A
Attached
Single-Family
Dwelling
5* 10 5 0 0 N/A 2,000 N/A 35 N/A N/A
Cluster
Subdivision E N/A N/A 35 70% N/A
Multiple-Family
Dwellings
(Apartments &
Condominiums)
E 5,000 N/A N/A 60% 1,000
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes:
* Garage and carport placement – The point of vehicular entry to a garage or carport shall be a distance of five (5) feet or less, or eighteen (18) feet or more from the back of sidewalk, or if there is no sidewalk, from the back of curb. Automatic garage door openers are required for garages set back less than eighteen (18) feet to the point of vehicular entry.

C - Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined.

E - 10’ from any exterior boundary line of the project. No setback from any individual building site’s property line development unit or lot except as required to comply with the UBC; Multiple-Family Dwellings require 25’ minimum from property lines abutting single family residential areas.

Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-70 TABLE 47: LAKE FOREST PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft)
From Ultimate
Street R.O.W.

10* 10 10 G G N/A 5,000 N/A 35 60% 5,000
HIDR –
Multiple-Family
Residential
F, G, J N/A N/A N/A 60 60% 2,400
Heavy Density
Residential
(HEDR) –
Multiple Family
Residential
F, G, J N/A N/A N/A 35 60% 2,400
HEDR – SFR 10* 10 10 C 0 N/A
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes:
* Garages must be a minimum of 20’ from R.O.W. or back of sidewalk, whichever is closer.

C - Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined F - The minimum setback distance between any building or structure and street right-of-way or back of sidewalk shall be 10’.

G - The minimum side and rear setback is 0 ’, except 5’ setback from property line between detached adjacent structures or single- dwelling units.

H - 10’ from any exterior boundary line of the project. No setback from any individual building site’s property line development unit or lot; except as required to comply with the UBC.

J - When there is a difference in elevation of 3’or more between adjacent building pads on lots having a common side property line, “R1” side yard regulations shall apply to that common side yard only.

Item: 11
393

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-71 TABLE 48: NAKASE PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street
R.O.W.

Q - The minimum front setback from a private court or motor court is 3 feet.

R - 5 feet/15 feet , with a minimum 35% of the rear elevation at 15 foot setback S - 5 feet/15 feet , with a minimum 35% of the rear elevation at 15 foot setback.

T - 5 feet/15 feet , with a minimum 45% of the rear elevation at 15 foot setback.

U - 5 feet/10 feet , with a minimum 45% of the rear elevation at 10 foot setback.

V - Entry door to front door requires a 20 foot minimum separation.

W - If attached garages are included in the project then 70% lot coverage allowed.

Item: 11
394

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-72 TABLE 49: PORTOLA HILLS PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft)
From Ultimate
Street R.O.W.

Setbacks (ft) from
property line not
abutting a street
Setbacks Panhandle
building site from any
property line
Minimum Lot Size (sq ft)
Minimum distance (ft)
between Principal
Structures
Maximum Building
Height (ft)
Maximum Lot Coverage
Area (sq ft) per Unit
Front
Side
Rear
Side
Rear
Detached SFD
(rural estate) 20 8 25 8 25 N/A 1 acre N/A 35 N/A N/A
Detached SFD
(conventional) 10* 10 10 C 10 N/A 3,000 N/A 35 N/A N/A
Attached SFD
(conventional) 10* 10 10 0 0 N/A 2,000 N/A 35 N/A N/A
Cluster
Subdivision E N/A N/A 35 70% N/A
Multiple-Family
Dwellings
(Apartments &
Condominiums)
E 5,000 N/A 35 or K 60% 1,000
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes:
* Garage and carport placement – The point of vehicular entry to a garage or carport shall be a distance of five (5) feet or less, or eighteen (18) feet or more from the back of sidewalk, or if there is no sidewalk, from the back of curb. Automatic garage door openers are required for garages set back less than eighteen (18) feet to the point of vehicular entry.

C – Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined.

E – 10’ from any exterior boundary line of the project. No setback from any individual building site’s property line development unit or lot except as required to comply with the UBC; Multiple-Family Dwellings require 20’ minimum setback from any exterior property lines.

K – Sub-Planning Areas F1 an F2 of the Portola Hills Area Plan have a maximum height of 45 feet.

Item: 11
395

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-73 TABLE 50: RANCHO DE LOS ALISOS PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street
R.O.W.

Setbacks (ft) from
property line not
abutting a street
Setbacks Panhandle
building site from any
property line
Minimum Lot Size (sq ft)
Minimum distance (ft)
between Principal
Structures
Maximum Building
Height (ft)
Maximum Lot Coverage
Units/ Acre
Front
Side
Rear
Side
Rear
Low Density
Residential
(LDR)
10* 10 10 C 0 N/A 7,000 N/A 35 50% 2
Medium
Density
Residential
(MDR) –
Single Family
Residential
(SFR)
10* 10 10 C 0 N/A 3,000 N/A 35 60% 9
MDR – other
than SFR 20 5 25 5 25
or D N/A 3,000 N/A 35 60% 9
High Density
Residential
(HIDR)
10* 10 10 0 0 N/A 3,000 N/A 35 60% 18
Heavy Density
Residential
(HEDR)
10* 10 10 0 0 N/A 3,000 N/A 60 60% 30
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes: Additional building setbacks: a) The minimum setback from arterial highways for all buildings shall be 25’ plus 5’ for each story above 2 stories. b) The minimum setback between single family and multiple family main buildings or mobile homes shall be 25’ plus 5’ for each story above 2 stories of the multiple family building. * Garages must be a minimum of 20’ from R.O.W. or back of sidewalk, whichever is closer (Section 7-9-137.1) C – Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined.

Item: 11
396

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-74 TABLE 51: RANCHO SERRANO PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street R.O.W.

C – Ten (10) feet one (1) side only or ten (10) feet total of two (2) sides combined.

Item: 11
397

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-75 TABLE 52: SERRANO HIGHLANDS PLANNED COMMUNITY
Zoning
District
Setbacks (ft) From
Ultimate Street
R.O.W.

Setbacks (ft) from
property line not
abutting a street
Setbacks Panhandle
building site from any
property line
Minimum Lot Size (sq ft)
Minimum distance (ft)
between Principal
Structures
Maximum Building Height
(ft)
Maximum Lot Coverage
Units/ Acre
Front
Side
Rear
Side
Rear
Medium
Density
Residential
(MDR) –
Conventional
Subdivision
10* 10 10 0 0 N/A 5,000 N/A 35 50% 5
Medium
Density
Residential
(MDR) –
Planned
Concept
Subdivision
10* 10 10 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 35 N/A 5
High Density
I Residential
(HIDR1)
10* 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 35 or L 60% 13
High Density
II Residential
(HIDR2)
10* 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 35 or L 60% 18
Source: City of Lake Forest
Notes:
* Garage and carport placement – The point of vehicular entry to a garage or carport shall be a distance of five (5) feet or less, or twenty (20) feet or more from the back of sidewalk, or if there is no sidewalk, from the back of curb. Automatic garage door openers are required for garages set back less than five (5) feet to the point of vehicular entry.

L- Unless a greater height is specifically approved on the site plan by the Planning Commission.

Item: 11
398

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-76 Flexibility in Development Standards
The City’s Municipal Code includes different proces ses that would allow for housing developers to either create new development standards or to deviate from existing development standards, as follows: .  The City has a Planned Development overlay zoning di strict that allows de viation from specific development standards for planned development proj ects. (Lake Forest Municipal Code Section

9.124)
 Many of the City’s Planned Communities include a process for an alternative development standards. (Baker Ranch Planned Community, Foothill Ranch Planned Community, Nakase Planned Community, and Portola Hills Planned Community)
 An Area Plan is required for larger residential developments. The Area Plan process allows for the creation of development standards for the specific housing development (Lake Forest Municipal Code Section 9.184.020).
 For affordable housing projects, the City allows incentives, which usually include deviations from development standards, and density bonuses (Lake Forest Municipal Code Chapter 9.152).

Analysis of Land Use Controls
The City has considered and analyzed all relevant land use controls as potential constraints on a variety of housing types, both independently and cumulatively with ot her land use controls. This analysis, as outlined above, includes reviewing current General Plan guidance (updated in 2020), and existing zoning standards including standards identified for the City’s Planned Communities.

As previously mentioned, the City adopted new mixed-us e land use districts as part of its comprehensive General Plan Update in 2020 and is currently prep aring mixed-use zoning standards to implement the densities identified for these land use categories. The City has included Program 1 as part of the Housing Plan to commit the City to prepare, adopt, and implement new zoning standards consistent with the densities and intensities identified in the General Plan. At this time, if an application was to be submitted for a site designated for mixed-use with no applicable zoning standards, the City would work with the applicant to prepare specific Planned Community standards for t he site and/or a Specific Plan which would set customized zoning consistent with the land use parameters identified in the General Plan. The City is committed to allowing the densities and intensities id entified for mixed-use development even as the final zoning standards are being prepared. Given this commitment and the City’s inclusion of specific programs in the Housing Plan which commit the City to complete the rezoning process, the City finds that its current land use controls no not impact the ability to achieve the densities identified in the sites inventory.

PROVISIONS FOR A VARIETY OF HOUSING TYPES
State housing element law requires that jurisdictions facilitate and encourage a range of housing types for all economic segments of the community. This includes hous ing to meet the needs of a variety of households with incomes ranging from low to above-moderate. The Housing Element is the City’s plan for achieving this objective.

As shown in the City’s Zoning Code accommodates a wide variety of conventional and special needs housing, including single-family dwellings, duplexes, multifamily, ADUs, manufactured housing, mobile home parks, community care facilities (small and large), and transitional and supportive housing. Please note that the information contained in this Table represents ac curate information only at the time of the Housing Element’s preparation; future amendments and modifications to the Zoning Code may change the information in this Table. All interested parties should refer directly to the Zoning Code to ensure that the most accurate information is considered.

Item: 11
399

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-77 TABLE 53: PERMITTED RESIDENTIAL USES BY ZONE
Housing Type
Residential District Commercial
District
Urban
Activity
District
Light
Industrial
District
Agricultural
District
R1 RS R2/R4 RP C2/CC UA M1 A1
Conventional Housing
Single-Family
--Detached
--Attached
P
--
P
--
P
P
P
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
P
--
Two-Family Dwelling (Duplex)1 -- -- P -- -- -- -- --
Multifamily1
--Four or fewer units
--Five or more units
--
--
--
--
P
SD
U
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Manufactured Housing P P P P -- -- -- P
Mobile Home Park - - U U -- -- -- --
Accessory Dwelling Unit
(Second Unit) P P P P -- -- -- P
Special Needs Housing
Community Care Facility
--6 or fewer clients
--7-12 clients
P
-
P
-
P
-
P
-
--
--
--
--
--
--
P
U
Congregate Care Facility (12 or
more persons) -- -- U -- U U -- --
Emergency Shelter -- -- -- -- -- -- P --
Transitional Housing P/
U
P/U/
SD
P/U/S
D
P/

U -- -- -- --
Supportive Housing P/
U
P/U/
SD
P/U/S
D
P/

U U U -- P/U
Single Room Occupancy -- -- -- -- SD SD -- --
Source: City of Lake Forest Zoning Code, 2021
Notes: “P” = Permitted; “U” = Use Permit; “SD” = Site Development Permit; and “--” = Not Permitted

1. Condominium projects require a use permit
Single-Family: Detached single-family dwellings are permitted by right within the R1, RS R2, R4, RP, and A1 zones. Attached single-family dwellings, which are units that are attached side by side and separated by a property line aligned with the shared wall, are allowed within the R2/R4 zones. Single-family projects are subject to a ministerial review.

Multifamily: Multifamily developments with four or fewer units are permitted in the R2/R4 zones by right, and permitted in the RP district subject to a Use Permit. Mu ltifamily developments with five or more units are permitted in the R2/R4 zones subject to Site Development Permit. Multifamily projects with four or fewer units are subject to administrative plan review. For projects wi th five or more units, a Site Development Permit is required.

Item: 11
400

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-78 Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU): Government Code Section 65852.2(a)(1) allows local agencies to designate areas within a city where accessory dwelling units (ADU) may be permitted and to impose development standards addressing issues such as unit size, height, setbacks, lot coverage, parking, landscaping, and architectural review. The City updated (2021) Section 9.146.050 of its Municipal Code to be consistent with California Government Code Sections 65852.150 and 65852.2, which establish regulations for accessory dwelling units. The information contained in this section is valid at the time of the Housing Element’s preparation (2021). Please refer directly to the Lake Forest Municipal Code for all current applicable regulations pertaining to ADUs.

Lake Forest Municipal Code (LFMC) Section 9.146.050 was amended to define an accessory dwelling unit as “an attached or a detached residential dwelling unit that provides complete independent living facilities for one (1) or more persons and is located on a lot with a proposed or existing primary residence.” An ADU includes permanent provisions for living, sleeping, eating, cooking, and sanitation.

Construction of an ADU or JADU (junior accessory dwelling unit) is permitted in zones that allow residential uses and include a proposed or existing dwelling. AD Us and JADUs are subject to compliance with the requirements described below and in LFMC Section 9.146.050. ADUs shall be permitted on any residential or mixed-use zone that allows residential units, subject to the following criteria, which include (but are not limited to):
 Sites developed or proposed to be developed with a single-family residence shall be permitted one ADU.
 Sites developed with a multifamily building may convert existing non-habitable square footage within the building to a minimum one ADU and a maximum that shall not exceed twenty-five percent of the number of units on the site. Sites developed with a multifamily building are also permitted to construct two ADUs or to convert detached accessory buildings, garages, carports, or covered parking structures to a maximum of two ADUs.
 A maximum of one JADU is allowed on sites developed or proposed to be developed with a single- family residence. A JADU must be contained entirely within an existing or proposed single-family structure.

The City’s approval process for ADUs is consistent wi th State law. The ordinance sets forth the following development standards for ADUs, which are applicable as of September 2021:

Item: 11
401

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-79 TABLE 54: ADU AND JADU DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS
Specific Regulations
ADU
JADU Additional
Provisions Attached Detached
Maximum Size
Building permit only: 800
sq. ft.

Building permit and ADU
Permit: 850 sf (0-1
bedroom)
1,000 sf (2 bedroom)
Building permit only:
800 sq. ft.

Building permit and
ADU Permit:
850 sf (0-1 bedroom)
1,000 sf (2 bedroom)
500 sf (1)
Maximum Height 16 ft (1 story)
35 ft (2 story) 16 ft (1 story)
Same as
primary
residence

Minimum Front Yard Setback
Building permit only:
none
Building permit and ADU
Permit: 25 ft
Building permit only:
none
Building permit and
ADU Permit:25 ft
-- (2)
Minimum Side/Rear Yard
Setback 4 ft 4 ft -- (2)
Minimum parking 1 spac e 1 space -- (3)(4)(5)(6)
Tandem Parking Permitted Permitted --
Source: City of Lake Forest Zoning Code, 2021

1. An attached ADU that is created on a lot with an existing primary dwelling is further limited to fifty (50) percent of the floor area of the existing primary dwelling.

2. No setback is required for an ADU subject to this subsection (F) if the ADU is constructed in the same location and to the same dimensions as an existing structure.

3. No parking is required under the following situations: the ADU is located within one-half (½) mile walking distance of public transit; the ADU is located within an architecturally and historically significant historic district; the ADU is part of the proposed or existing primary residence or an accessory structure; when on-street parking permits are required but not offered to the occupant of the ADU; and/or, when there is an established car share vehicle stop located within one (1) block of the ADU.

4. When a garage, carport, or covered parking structure is demolished in conjunction with the construction of an ADU or converted to an ADU, those off-street parking spaces are not required to be replaced.

5. Each unclosed parking space shall be at least nine (9) feet wide and eighteen (18) feet long.

6. Each parking space that is provided in an enclosed garage shall be at least ten (10) feet wide and twenty (20) feet long and have at least seven and one half (7 ½) feet vertical clearance.

Manufactured Housing: State law requires that manufactured housing, when constructed as a single-family dwelling on a permanent foundation, be treated as a co nventional single-family home subject to the same development standards applicable to a single-family residential dwelling on the same lot, except for architectural requirements limited to its roof overhang , roofing material, and siding material. In accordance with State law, manufactured housing in the City ma y be placed on lots that allo w single-family residential uses provided that the homes are attached to a foundation system in compliance with all applicable building regulations and Section 18551 of the Health and Safety Code and occupied only as a residential use.

Mobile Home Park: Mobile home parks, including manufactured home parks, that conform to the State Mobile Home Parks Act (Division 13, Part 2.1 of t he California Health and Safety Code, commencing with Section 18200) or the implementing State guidelines (Title 25, Division I, Chapter 2 of the California Code of Regulations) and Section 18300 of the Health and Safety Code, are allowed in the R2, R4, and RP residential zones but require a use permit. The City of Lake Forest currently has four mobile home parks.

Residential Care Facility: Residential care facilities refer to any family home, group home, or rehabilitation Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-80 facility that provides 24-hour non-medical care to persons in need of personal services, protection, supervision, assistance, guidance, or training essential for daily living. The City of Lake Forest Zoning Code refers to residential care facilities as “community care facilities.” “Small” community care facilities (those serving six or fewer clients) are permitted by right in all residential zones and in the A1 zone subject to the same development standards and permit processing requirements as other residential uses in those zones, pursuant to the California Lanterman Developmental Di sabilities Services Act. “Large” community care facilities (those serving se ven or more clients) are permitted with a use permit in the Commercial, Urban Activity, and Agriculture (A1) zones. In order to implement a barrier-free definition of family, Program 7 states that the Zoning Code shall be revised to remove all references to residential care facilities.

In 2017, residential care facilities were separated out of residential zones and transitory-lodging uses in residential districts were included in conformance with State law. Program 7 states that the Zoning Code shall be revised as necessary to ensure that transit ional and supportive housing are allowed in residential and mixed-use zones subject to the same standards as a residence of the same type in the same zone consistent with Government Code Section 65583(c)(c)(3).

Farm Worker Housing: Although the City of Lake Forest is not located within a major agricultural area, the City’s Zoning Code includes two districts that allow agricultural uses (A1 and OS). Pursuant to the California Employee Housing Act and consistent with Health and Safety Code Section 17021.6, facilities with up to 36 beds in a group-quarters or 12 units or spaces to board farm workers are treated as accessory or incidental to agriculture operation and permitted in the same manner as agricultural uses. The City permits Agriculture Employee Quarters in the A-1 and OS zones by right.

As included in Program 7 of the Housing Plan, the Zoning Code will be updated to define “agricultural worker housing” and to stipulate that any agricultural worker housing providing no more than 36 beds in a group- quarters, or consisting of 12 or fewer units or spaces, shall be deemed an agricultural land use and permitted in the same manner as agricultural uses consistent with Health and Safety Code Section 17021.6. The Zoning Code will also be updated to provide for streamli ned, ministerial approval of agricultural worker housing that meets the requirements of Health and Safety Code Section 17021.8.

As included in Program 7 of the Housing Plan, the Zoning Code will be updated to define “employee housing” distinctly from “agricultural work er housing” and to clarify that employee housing serving six or fewer employees shall be deemed a single-family structure and shall be subject to the same standards for a single- family residence in the same zone.

Emergency Shelter: Emergency shelters are allowed by-right (i.e., ministerial approval) in the Industrial (I) zone, subject to compliance with objective standards consistent with the requirements identified in Government Code Section 65583(a)(4).

No emergency shelters are currently located within Lake Forest. While all of the City’s Industrial parcels are developed (consistent with all other areas of the City), there are vacancies within existing buildings, allowing for potential adaptive reuse of existi ng space. These parcels are infill sites in developed areas and are suitable for emergency shelters. Water, sewer, and utilities are available in the road ways adjacent to these parcels.

The I zone is suitable for emergency shelters because:
 Shelters are compatible with a range of uses t hat are common in suburban communities and allowed in the I zone (e.g., office buildings, religious institutions, child or day care, commercial or vocational schools, warehousing, libraries, civic or government uses, etc.);  I zoned parcels are served by public bus routes th at connect to regional transit with an average distance of 0.29 miles from each parcel to a bus stop;
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-81  Existing uses in the I zone are primarily light industrial, warehousing, and office uses – no heavy industrial uses are present; and
 The parcels are not known to be constrained by th e presence of hazardous materials either on or adjacent to the properties.

As included in Program 7 of the Housing Plan, the Zoning Code will be updated to require sufficient parking to accommodate all staff working in an emergency shelter, provided that the standards will not require more parking for emergency shelters than other residential or commercial uses within the same zone, in compliance with Government Code Section 65583(a).

Low Barrier Navigation Center: A low barrier navigation center is a housing first, low-barrier, service- enriched shelter focused on moving people into permanent housing that provides temporary living facilities while case managers connect individuals experienci ng homelessness to income, public benefits, health services, shelter, and housing. AB 2162 amended Government Code Section 65583 to require jurisdictions to streamline approval of eligible low barrier navigation center applications in areas zoned for mixed-use and residential zones permitting multifamily uses, subject to specific criteria. As in cluded in Program 7 of the Housing Plan, the Zoning Code will be updated to define and permit low-barrier navigation centers consistent with the requirements of Government Code Sectio ns 65660 through 65668, including treating low-barrier navigation centers as a by-right use in areas where multifamily or mixed uses are permitted Transitional and Supportive Housing: Transitional housing is a type of housing used to facilitate the movement of homeless individuals and families to permanent housing. Transitional housing can take several forms, including group quarters with beds, single-fa mily homes, and multifamily apartments and typically offers case management and support services to return people to independent living (usually between 6-24 months). The Zoning Code defines tr ansitional housing as “buildings configured as rental housing developments but operated under [multifamily housing] program requirements that call for the termination of assistance and recirculation of the assisted unit to another eligible program recipient at some predetermined future point in time, which shall be no less than six (6) months” This definition is consistent with Government Code Section 65582(j).

According to the National Housing Institute, suppo rtive housing is permanent housing with a service component, which can be provided either on-site or off-site. The Zoning Code defines supportive housing as “housing with no limit on length of stay, that is occupied by the target [homeless] population, and that is linked to on-site or off-site services that assist the suppo rtive housing resident in retaining the housing, improving his or her health status, and maximizing his or her ability to live and, when possible, work in the community.” The target population may include persons with disabilit ies, elderly, youth aging out of the foster system, veterans, and homeless. The City’s definition is consistent with Government Code Section 65582(g).

Senate Bill 2 amended Government Code Sections 65582, 65583, and 65589.5 and provides that transitional housing and supportive housing that is a rental housing development constitutes a residential use. It requires zoning to treat such uses as a residential use and s ubject only to those restrictions that apply to other residential uses of the same type in the same zone. Included as Program 7 of the Housing Plan, the Zoning Code shall be revised to ensure that transitional and supportive housing is allowed in residential and mixed- use zones subject to the same standards as a residence of the same type in the same zone consistent with Government Code Section 65583(c)(3), and to allow eligib le supportive housing as a by-right use in zones where multi-family and mixed uses are permitted pur suant to Government Code Sections 65650 through 65656.

Single-Room Occupancy (SRO): Single-room occupancy (SRO) fac ilities are a housing type that is considered suitable to meet the needs of extremely low, very low, and low-income households. With high housing costs, many communities in California are ex ploring the use of single-room occupancy housing to fulfill the affordable housing needs of certain segments of the community, such as seniors, students, and Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-82 single workers. The Lake Forest Zoning Code defines an SRO unit as follows:

A building with a common entrance containing a cluster of at least five (5) rental units which provide sleeping and living facilities for one (1) or two (2) persons wher e kitchen and/or bathroom facilities may be shared.

The units shall have a minimum of one hundred (100) net square feet of space for single occupancy and one hundred twenty (120) square feet for two-person occupancy . The calculation for floor space in the sleeping area includes built-in cabinets, sinks, and closets but excludes toilet compartments. A unit larger than two hundred twenty-five (225) square feet shall be deem ed an efficiency dwelling unit and not a Single-Room Occupancy (SRO).

SROs are permitted in the Commercial (C) and Urban Activity (UA) zones subject to a Site Development Permit, and in the Industrial (I) zones subject to a Use Permit. Standards for SROs are addressed in Zoning Code section 9.146.150. Requirements relate to the performance of the facility, such as parking, security, and management.

Housing for Disabled Persons: On January 1, 2002, SB 520, which amended Government Code Section 65589.5 and added sections 65913.5 and 65913.6 and C hapter 4.35 became effective and required local jurisdictions to analyze local government constraints on developing, maintaining, and improving housing for persons with disabilities. In accordance with SB 520 and Government Code 65583(a)(7), the City recognizes the importance of providing housing for persons with disabilities. Persons with disabilities have a number of specific housing needs, including those related to des ign and location. Design needs generally include the removal of architectural barriers that limit the accessibility of dwelling uni ts, and construction of wheelchair ramps, railings, etc. Location needs include accessibility to public transportation, commercial services, health care, and supportive services. Some persons with disabilities need group housing opportunities, especially those who are lower-income or homeless. The following discussion addresses these issues and determines that no specific City policy or regulation serves to impede the access that persons with disabilities have to housing that suits their specific needs.

Zoning and Land Use: The General Plan and Zoning Code provide for the development of multifamily housing with four or fewer units in the R2/R4 zones by right, as well as in the RP zone by Use Permit. Multifamily housing with five or more units are permitted in the R2/R4 zones subject a Site Development Permit.

Traditional multifamily housing for persons with spec ial needs, such as apartments for the disabled, are considered regular residential uses permitted in th ese zones. The City’s land use policies and zoning provisions do not constrain the development of such housing.

Under the Lanterman Developmental Disabilities Se rvices Act (Lanterman Act), small State-licensed residential care facilities for six or fewer persons must be permitted in all zones that allow single or multifamily uses, subject to the same permit processing require ments and development standards. The City of Lake Forest Zoning Code treats small residential care homes as a single-family residential use permitted by right in residential zones, in compliance with the Lanterman Act. Large residential care facilities serving seven or more clients are allowed in the A1 zone. Occupancy standards for residential care facilities are the same as occupancy standards for all other residential uses. The Zoning Code also accommodates transitional and supportive housing in all residential districts subject only to the same requirements for residential uses of the same type (e.g., single-family or mu ltifamily) in the same zone. These facilities may serv e persons with disabilities.

Building Code: Building construction and procedures within Lake Forest are required to conform to the current California Building Code, as adopted in Title 8 of th e City’s Municipal Code. Standards within the Building Code include provisions to ensure accessibility for persons with disabilities. These standards are consistent with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). No local amendments that would constrain accessibility or increase the cost of housing for persons with disabilities have been adopted and City officials are not aware of any instances in which an applicant experienced delays or rejection of a retrofitting proposal for accessibility to persons with disabilities.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-83 Reasonable Accommodation: Both the federal Fair Housing Act and the California Fair Employment and Housing Act direct local governments to make reasonable accomm odation (i.e., modifications or exceptions) in their zoning laws and other land use regulations to allow disabled persons an equal opportunity to use and enjoy a dwelling. For example, it may be a reasonable accommodation to waive a setback requirement so that elevated ramping can be constructed to provide access to a dwelling unit for a resident who has mobility impairments.

Whether a particular modification is reasonable depends on the circumstances and must be decided on a case- by-case basis.

Reasonable accommodation refers to flexibility in standards and policies to accommodate the needs of persons with disabilities. The City’s zoning and buildi ng codes, as well as approach to code enforcement, allow for special provisions that meet the needs of per sons with disabilities without the need for variances.

The City’s Reasonable Accommodation Ordinance is codified in Chapter 9.224 of the Zoning Code.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-84 The City’s Director of Community Development has administrative/ministerial authority to hear and decide applications for reasonable accommodation to allow reasonable remedy from zoning and other land use regulations, policies, and procedures for individuals with physical or mental impairment. A request for reasonable accommodation may include a modification or exception to the rules, standards, and practices for the siting, development, and use of housing or housing-related facilities that would eliminate regulatory barriers and provide a person with a disability equal opportunity to housing of their choice.

Lake Forest Municipal Code Section 9.224 outlines the process for reasonable accommodation applications.

Conclusion: Current planning policies and zoning regul ations have mitigated potential constraints to the availability of housing for persons with disabilities. The City has analyzed its Zoning Code and procedures to ensure that it is flexible, and not constraining the development of, housing for persons with disabilities.

Development Standards
Development standards directly shape the form and intensity of residential development by providing controls over land use, heights and volumes of buildings, open space on a site, etc. Site development standards also ensure a quality living environment for all household groups in the City, including special groups such as lower and moderate-income households and senior citizens.

Residential Parking Requirements
Parking standards are an important development regulation in communities. The City’s parking requirements are intended to ensure that adequate off-street parking and loading facilities are provided in proportion to the need created by the type of use. Adequate parking for residential projects contributes to the value of a project, the safety of residents, and the quality of a project’s appearance. However, excessive parking standards can pose a significant constraint to the development of housing because they can reduce the buildable area on a site and impact the funding available for project amenities or additional units. The parking requirements for residential and mixed-use developments, as applicable in September 2021, are shown in Table 55.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-85 TABLE 55: RESIDENTIAL PARKING REQUIREMENTS
Use Requirement Additional Regulations
Single-Family Dwelling  2 covered spaces
Those dwellings having less than an
eighteen (18) foot setback from the
back of curb or sidewalk, whichever is
closest to the garage or carport, shall
provide one (1) additional parking
space within two hundred (200) feet of
the dwelling. On-street parking, where
permitted, may be used for the
additional space.

Multifamily (2+ units)*
 0 – 1 bdrm: 1.5 spaces per du
 2 bdrm: 2 spaces per du
 3+ bdrm: 2.5 spaces per du + 0.5 per
bedroom in excess of 3
 In addition to above, add 0.2 guest
parking spaces per dwelling unit
(rounded to the nearest whole
number)
 For multifamily projects of 5+
units, requirement that off-street
parking spaces be covered is not
applicable
Multifamily (5+ units)*
Unit Size
(SF)
700 or less:
701-800
801-900
901-1,000
1,001-1,100
1,101-1,200
1,201-1,300
1,301-1,400
1,401-1,500
Over 1,500
Assigned

1.0 1.0

1.0 1.0
Unassigned

+0.17
+0.34
+0.50
+0.67
+0.84
+1.00
+1.18
+1.34
+1.5
 For Multifamily projects with 5+
units, off-street parking
requirements may be used in lieu
of Multifamily (2+ units) above
 For multifamily projects of 5+
units, requirement that off-street
parking spaces be covered is not
applicable
 In addition to above, add 0.2
guest parking spaces per dwelling
unit (rounded to the nearest whole
number)
Accessory Dwelling Unit  1 space per ADU
 No spaces required for JADU
No parking is required if ADU is:
 Located within 0.5-mile walking
distance of public transit
 Located within an architecturally
and historically significant historic
district
 Part of the proposed or existing
primary residence or an accessory
structure
 When on-street parking permits
are required but not offered to the
occupant of the ADU
 When there is a car share vehicle
located within one block of the
ADU
Congregate care facility
serving more than 12 1 space per unit --
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-86 persons
Affordable Housing
Projects Using Density
Bonus
 0 - 1 bdrm: 1 on-site parking space
 2 - 3 bdrm: 2 on-site parking spaces
 4+ bdrm: 2.5 on-site parking spaces
--
Sources: City of Lake Forest Zoning Code, 2021.

Pursuant to State law, the City provides development incentives for projects that include affordable housing units and may waive or reduce the parking requirem ents for such projects. The Director of Community Development may approve a parking reduction of up to five (5) percent of the total parking requirement for the sole purpose of accommodating modifications to an existing development to meet current legal requirements or regulations for purposes of accessibility and safety. The Planning Commission may approve parking reductions of up to ten (10) percent, subjec t to certain provisions. Moreover, affordable housing developments that are eligible for a density bonus pursuant to Government Code Section 65915-65918 are eligible to use parking standards established by State Density Bonus law.

DEVELOPMENT PROCESSING PROCEDURES
The time and cost of permit processing and project re view can be a constraint to housing development if significant development review is required. Project review and permit processing are necessary steps to ensure that residential construction complies with applicable codes, standards. The time required for project approval is often not so much a factor of the approval body (e.g., Director versus Planning Commission), but the complexity of the project and associated environmental review. However, small infill projects that can be approved administratively are generally less complex and take a shorter time to obtain appropriate approvals.

Larger and more complex projects like mixed-use development or residential subdivision maps subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), require a public hearing before the Planning Commission.

Projects reviewed by the Planning Commission, including Site Development Permits, Tentative Parcel Maps, and Tentative Tract Maps, typically require between 3 to 12 months to process. Projects reviewed by the City Council, such as General Plan and Zoning Code amendments, typically require between 6 to 12 months to process.

The City has and continues to take proactive steps to facilitate efficient development process. As part of the General Plan Update, the City prepared a program environmental impact report (EIR) that future applicants may rely upon, resulting in significant time and finan cial savings. The City reviews all applications for development prior to issuance of building permits to ensure projects contribute in a positive manner to the community and improve quality of life. Residentia l development projects may be subject to approvals – ministerial or discretionary (either with or without a public hearing). For most property in Lake Forest, new residential development with fewer than five units is permitted by right, provided the project adheres to the development standards of the zone. Projects with five or more units require approval of a Site Development Permit by the Planning Commission. The discretionary process allows the project to be reviewed for appropriateness, scale, architecture, site design, and compatib ility with the surrounding area. The City is currently (2021) preparing objective design standards consistent with the requirements of SB 35 Streamlined Permitting (Government Code Sections 65400 and 65582.1) requirements. This section outlines the timeline for typical residential development review and describes the permitting requirements and procedures for Site Development Permits, Use Permits, Subdivision Maps, etc. Based on the development activity during the 5 th
Cycle RHNA period, the City’s processing and permitting procedures do not appear to unduly constrain the development of housing.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-87

DISCRETIONARY PERMITS
A discretionary permit is a permit issued or approved by the City of Lake Forest as the result of an application the City retains the right to approve or disapprove. Se ction 9.184 of the Municipal Code specifies the City’s Discretionary Permit process, including the pr ocedures and requirements for discretionary permit applications and the basis or “findings” for decisions regarding such applications.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-88

FEATURE PLANS
A feature plan is a plan which conceptually describes, graphically and/or in writing, a proposed development for an identified and relatively large area of real proper ty. The purpose of a feature plan is to describe how significant natural and man-made features will be preserved or developed and how large-scale planning issues of special concern (e.g., traffic) will be add ressed. All subsequently ad opted discretionary permits (e.g., area plans) and subdivision maps shall be consistent with the feature plan.

Feature plans shall be processed initially to the City Council. The Planning Commission shall be the approving authority for feature plan amendments, ex cept when the commission finds that an amendment application proposes a change in policy from the or iginally approved feature plan, such amendment application shall be acted upon by the City Council.

After the date of final determination and after compliance with the Municipal Code, the policies and concepts of an approved feature plan shall be applicable to the property included within the boundaries of the feature plan until such time as the feature plan is amended or the applicable zoning regulations are revised so that the feature plan is no longer valid. All grading, deve lopment and improvements shall be in substantial conformance with the currently approved feature plan.

AREA PLANS
An area plan is similar to a feature plan except that an area plan contains relatively more detailed information and addresses a relatively smaller area of real proper ty. A feature plan may or may not be required prior to the approval of an area plan. An area plan for a planned community or specific plan may have less restrictive site development standards if allowed by the enabling ordinance. The Planning Commission is the approving authority for all area plan applications and amendments.

After the date of final determination and after complia nce with the Municipal Code, an approved area plan shall be applicable to the development of all real proper ty included within the boundaries of such area plan until such time as it is amended or rendered invalid by amendment of the zoning regulations or feature plan applicable to the property. All grading, development and improvements shall be in substantial conformance with the provisions of the currently approved area plan.

USE PERMITS
The purpose of a use permit is to provide for the public review of detailed final plans for a proposed use.

Uses which require a use permit are regarded as having a relatively moderate to high potential for adverse impacts on the subject site or surrounding community due to the nature of magnitude of the use vis-à-vis the sensitivity of the subject site or surrounding community. Use permits shall require a public hearing. If the land use regulations of a planned community or a specific plan allow a use permit to modify the site development standards to be less restrictive than otherwise stated in the enabling ordinance, such a use permit shall always require a public hearing before the Planning Commission.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-89

SITE DEVELOPMENT PERMIT
The purpose of a site development permit is to prov ide for the administrative (or discretionary review, if applicable) of detailed development plans for a proposed use. Uses which require a site development permit are regarded as having a relatively low potential for adverse impacts on the subject site or surrounding community due to the nature or magnitude of the use vis-à-vis the sensitivity of the subject site or surrounding community.

A site development permit shall be processed as an administrative action, unless the Director of Community Development determines on a case-by-case basis that the public interest would be better served by a public hearing before the Planning Commission. If the land use regulations of a planned community or a specific plan allow a site development permit or site plan to modify the site development standards to be less restrictive than otherwise stated in the enabling ordi nance, such a site development permit shall always require a public hearing before the Planning Commission.

Establishment, maintenance, and operation of the use or uses proposed by the application shall be in compliance with the information and specifications shown on the approved site development permit.

FINDINGS
The following findings shall be made by the approving authority prior to the approval of any discretionary permit:
 General Plan. The use or project proposed is consistent with the General Plan.  Zoning Code. The use, activity or improvement(s) proposed by the application is consistent with the provisions of the Zoning Code.
 CEQA. The approval of the permit application is in compliance with the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act.
 Compatibility. The location, size, design and operat ing characteristics of the proposed use will not create significant noise, traffic or other conditions or situations that may be objectionable, detrimental or incompatible with other permitted uses in the vicinity.  General Welfare. The application will not result in conditions or circumstances contrary to the public health and safety and the general welfare.
 Development Fees for Provision of Public Facilitie s. One (1) of the following findings shall be made:
o The property to which the permit applies is not located in a fee area. o The permit would not allow development of a project which would contribute to the need for the facility for which a fee is required.
 The project has been reviewed in accordance with Citywide Design Guidelines and is consistent with the purpose and intent of the guidelines.

As previously stated, the City is currently (2021) preparing objective design standards for by-right residential development, which will change the project review process. Please refer to the City for more information regarding the most current requirements.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-90

TYPICAL TIMEFRAMES
Table 56 outlines the typical processing times for singl e-family and multifamily projects with and without preparation of a robust environmental document.

TABLE 56: TYPICAL PERMIT PROCESSING TIMES AND REVIEWING BODY Project Type
Processing Time without
Negative Declaration/EIR Processing Time with Negative
Declaration/EIR
Single-Family Dwelling 3-6 weeks N/A
Multifamily (Four or Fewer Units) 1-3 months 9-18 months Multifamily (Five or More Units) 3-6 months 9-18 months Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021
The length of time between the project approval and r equest for a building permit is minimal. Specifically, there is a 15 day appeal period following approval of a discretionary permit. In certain circumstances, a “hold harmless” letter may be filed and an applicant may subm it their building plans with the understanding that fees may be lost if an appeal results in denial of the projectis filed.

Discretionary permits subject tothat require approv al by the Director of Community Development is approximatelytypically require 4-6 weeks for processing. Discretion ary permits subject to Planning Commission approval are processed in approximately 4-6 months.

Subdivisions
This review process applies to all residential land divisions within the City. Title 7 of the Lake Forest Municipal Code includes the standards and processes for subdivis ions. It is based primarily on the State Subdivision Map Act. As it relates to residential development, the regul ations apply to all land divisions that create lots for single-family homes and lots, or condominiums, for multifamily development. As part of the review process for subdivisions, the City reviews applications for compliance with lot size and shape standards, the general layout of the subdivision, and infrastructure require ments. If the project complies with the subdivision standards and General Plan density, the project can proceed through the approval process.

Reasonable Accommodation
The City’s process for providing reasonable accommodation allows individuals, or their representatives, to make requests for reasonable accommodations for per sons with disabilities. Requests for reasonable accommodation are approved administratively unless the r equest also requires a permit or entitlement requiring Planning Commission or City Council approval. City staff is available to provide assistance regarding the processing of requests for the construction of a ccessory structures intended to accommodate persons with disabilities.

The City amended its Zoning Ordinance in 2007 to establish the process for requesting and granting reasonable accommodations for persons with disa bilities. Requests for reasonable accommodation are subject to review and approval by the Director of Community Development. The Community Development Department provides assistance with applying for a reasonable accommodation to those who need it. The request must state the basis of the request, including t he modification(s) or exception(s) to the regulations, standards or practices for the siting, development or use of housing or housing related facilities that would eliminate regulatory barriers and provide an individual with a disability equal opportunity to housing of his or her choice.

Lake Forest’s reasonable accommodation procedure does not require a public hearing when the reasonable request is made on its own (if it was to be combin ed with entitlement, then a hearing would be required related to the entitlement request) and preserves privacy laws and fair housing laws. Only owners of abutting properties are notified of reasonable accommodation requests and approvals not subject to a public hearing.

Lake Forest’s reasonable accommodation procedure complies with Housing Element law and provides for disabled residents to make necessary changes to their properties.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-91 The City’s reasonable accommodation process requires the requester to provide a letter specifying the request and an explanation of how the request will provide reasonable accommodation in the application of the City’s zoning laws to afford a disabled person(s) an equal opportunity to use and enjoy a dwelling within the City. If the requester is unable to prepare a written request, the requester can make an oral request to Staff and Staff will work with the requester to prepare the necessary written material. The City has and will continue to give appropriate consideration to reasonable accommodation requests even if the requester makes the request orally or does not use the City’s preferred forms or procedures. Depending on the nature of the request, plans may be required to clearly illustrate the request. The City does not charge a fee for a request for reasonable accommodation. Within 5 days of receipt of the letter and plans (if applicable) the City will notify the applicant if any additional information is necessary to complete the application.

A decision for a request for a reasonable accommodati on will be determined by the Director of Community Development within 30 days of receipt of the application that was deemed complete. With the exception, that when the request is part of an entitlement requiring Planning Commission or City Council review, the request will be processed with the entitlem ent. A decision for a request for a reasonable accommodation must be approved if the request meets the following criteria:

1. The accommodation is reasonable, consideri ng the nature of the applic ant’s disability, the surrounding land uses, and the rule, standard, policy or practice from which relief is sought;

2. The accommodation is necessary to afford the applicant equal opportunity to enjoy and use a dwelling;

3. The accommodation will have only incidental econ omic or monetary benefits to the applicant, and the primary purpose of the accommodation is not to assist with real estate speculation or excess profit-taking;

4. The accommodation does not cr eate a substantial adverse impact on surrounding land uses, or a public nuisance, that cannot be reasonably mitigated;

5. The accommodation is reasonably feasible, consid ering the physical attributes of the property and structures;

6. There are no alternative accommodations which may provide an equivalent level of benefit to the applicant, while minimizing adverse impacts on surrounding land uses and lessening the financial and/or administrative burden on the City;

7. In the case of a determination involving a one (1 ) family dwelling, whether the household would be considered a single housekeeping unit if it were not using special services that are required because of the disabilities of the residents;

8. The requested accommodation does not impose an undue financial or administrative burden on the City; and

9. The requested accommodation does not require a fu ndamental alteration in the nature of a program. (Ord. 176 § 1, 2007)
The City has evaluated its reasonable accommodate procedure for compliance with fair housing laws and has included Program 7 to update its procedures to co mply with fair housing laws and ensure that the procedure does not pose a constraint to the housing for persons with disabilities.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-92

ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
The City has adopted procedures for complying with the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), including assessing the potential env ironmental impacts of development applications determined to be a “project” as defined by Public Re sources Code 21000-21177. Environmental review is required for most discretionary actions including Us e Permits, Subdivision Maps, and legislative actions including General Plan amendments, zone changes, and code amendments. Environmental review occurs while the application is being processed. An environmental determination by City staff for a project is made to prepare the appropriate environmental document for consideration by the decision-making authority.

Certain classes of residential projects may be categori cally exempt from the provisions of CEQA or require only an Initial Study and Negative Declaration. The envir onmental review of categorically exempt projects requires a minimal amount of time and does not pose a significant constraint to housing development.

In 2020, the City adopted a comprehensive update to its General Plan and certified a Program Environmental Impact Report (EIR) which analyzed the potential impacts associated with implementation of the General Plan Land Use Map. Environmental documents for projects which are consistent with the densities and intensities analyzed under the General Plan Program EI R may tier off the analysis included in the General Plan EIR, which could significantly reduce the time and costs associated with preparation of required environmental documents. By proactively planning to accommodate new residential development throughout the City and analyzing the potential impact s of such development as part of the Program EIR, the City has helped to streamline the environmental review and approval process.

STREAMLINING APPROVALS
Lower Income Sites Included in Previous Elements
While the Development Review process is not cons idered a constraint to housing, Policy 1.8 has been included to comply with Government Code 65583.2. Th is program will allow by-right approval of housing developments proposed on non-vacant sites included in the previous housing element inventory and on vacant sites included in the two previous housing el ement inventories, provided that the proposed housing development includes at least 20 percent lower-income affordable housing units. This will increase certainty for affordable and multifamily developers related to residential sites throughout the community, as identified in Appendix A.

Senate Bill (SB) 35
SB 35 (Government Code Sections 65400 and 65582.1 provides provisions for streamlining projects based on a jurisdiction’s progress towards its RHNA allocation and timely submittal of the Housing Element Annual Progress Report. Jurisdictions that have made insuffic ient progress toward their above moderate-income RHNA allocation and/or have not submitted the latest Housing Element Annual Progress Report are subject to the streamlined ministerial approval process for proposed developments with at least 10% affordability.

HCD reviews the annual progress report deadlines and R HNA progress on an annual basis. Lake Forest is currently subject to SB 35 streamlining provisio ns when proposed developments include at least 50% affordability. Program 7 in the Ho using Plan has been provid ed to incorporate the mandatory streamlining provisions into the City’s Zoning Code. These streamlining provisions will reduce approval requirements for projects that include a minimum of 50% of units affo rdable to lower income households and that meet the criteria specified by State law.

FLEXIBILITY IN DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS
Development standards affect the financials of a re sidential project, both from the revenue side (through achievable density) and through the costs of complying with specific development standards. However, there is no specific threshold that determines whether a par ticular standard or set of standards constrains the affordability or supply of housing. Many factors determi ne project feasibility. While prior sections discussed how to reduce development costs, t he following describes ways that the Zoning Code offers flexibility in Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-93 development standards.

Residential Density Bonus
The City Zoning Code allows density bonuses and other incentives for affordable and senior residential projects in accordance with State Density Bonus law. Section 9.152.010 of the Zoning Code incorporates by reference the procedures for providing density bonus or other incentives in compliance with state law (Government Code §65915 et seq.).

Condominium Conversions
In order to ensure a variety of housing opportunities (ownership and rental) including low-density single- family homes, moderate-density townhomes, higher-den sity condominiums and mobile homes, Chapter

9.172 of the City’s Zoning Code provides the following requirements for proposed condominium conversions:
 A requirement for a condominium use permit approved by the City Council (if five or more units);  Compliance with the applicable standards and requirem ents of the zoning district is which the project is located;
 The provision of a tenant purchase option;
 The payment of relocation expenses of $1,500 in 2006 dollars adjusted annually in accordance with the Consumer Price Index;
 A requirement to submit an affordable housing implementation plan which incorporates a minimum of 15% affordable units (either rental or ownership); and  A general prohibition on conversions (with specif ied overriding considerations) that becomes effective when the average rental vacancy rate within the City during the 12 preceding months is 4% or greater.

When a condominium conversion is permitted, the incr ease in the supply of less expensive for sale-units helps to compensate for the loss of rental units. One condominium conversion has been approved since adoption of amended condominium conversion standards in 2006. This demonstrates that the ordinance regulating condominium conversions is reasonable to preserve rental housing opportunities, and does not present an unreasonable constraint on the production of ownership housing.

Short-Term Rentals
Short-term rentals are defined in the Lake Forest Municipal Code under “Transitory-Lodging Use.” Transitory- Lodging is prohibited in the City of Lake Forest. Nonetheless, there were 21 short-term rentals in Lake Forest listed on Airbnb.com in July 2021; however, only six of t he rentals were for an entire apartment or condominium. The other 15 rentals were limited to a room or suite within a home and do not decrease the amount of housing stock available for permanent occupancy. A significant number of short-term rentals has the potential to affect the availability of housing stock. Therefore, this will be an issue that the City continues to monitor to ensure it does not negatively impact permanent housing options in the City.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-94

BUILDING CODES AND ENFORCEMENT
New construction in Lake Forest, including additions and remodels, must comply with the current edition of the California Building Code (CBC). The City continue s to adopt the most recent CBC with all required updates. The CBC establishes construction standards necessary to protect public health, safety, and welfare, and the local enforcement of this code does not unduly constrain development of housing. The 2019 California Building Code, Title 24, Part 2, Volumes 1 and 2, published by the International Code Council, was adopted by the City by reference as Title 8 of the City’s Municipal Code and subject to the amendments contained in that title.

No local amendment to the CBC has been initiated or approved that directly impacts housing standards or processes. Code enforcement is conducted by City staff which is responsive to complaints from community members. The City maintains records of code comp laints and works proactively in neighborhoods where violations are most prevalent to address potential iss ues before they become significant. The City enforces its code equitably and as necessary throughout t he community. Program 16 in the Housing Plan helps support homeowners with rehabilitating substandard housing. The Code Enforcement and Building Divisions assist property owners with meeting State health and safety codes.

DEVELOPMENT FEES AND IMPROVEMENT REQUIREMENTS
State law limits fees charged for deve lopment permit processing to the reasonable cost of providing the service for which the fee is charged. Various fees and assessments are charged by the City and other public agencies to cover the costs of processing permit applicat ions and providing services and facilities such as schools, parks, and infrastructure. Almost all these fees are assessed through a pro rata share system, based on the magnitude of the project's impact or the extent of the benefit that will be derived.

For new residential projects, developers in Lake Forest may be required to pay one or more of the following fees depending on the location, type, and size of the project:

Planning, Building, and Environmental Fees: In accordan ce with the adopted fee schedule, developers are charged standard fees for plan check, entitlement a pplication processing, building permits, environmental impact studies, and other applications commensurate with the cost of processing such applications, conducting inspections, and performing other associated tasks.

Regional Agency Fees: Regional agency fees include water and sewer fees collected by the water district and sanitation district, and school impact fees collected by the school districts as allowed by State law to finance the construction and expansion of schools to accommodat e student enrollment. The water, sanitation, and school districts have the authority to set their respective fees. The City does not have any ability to adjust these fees. Regional agency fees also include transportation agency fees, including the Foothill Circulation Phasing Plan, Foothill Eastern Transporta tion Corridor, Santiago Canyon Road, and El Toro Road program fees.

Regional agency fees corresponding to a multifamily affordable housing project approved in 2021 (“Mountain View”, 71 units) totaled approximately $19,000 per unit. Some regional agency fees vary based on the product type (single-family or multifamily), but differences are relatively minor and the regional agency fee corresponding to the Mountain View project is representative of fees for both residential types. Table 57 lists fees the City charges for new, standard residential development.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-95 TABLE 57: PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT FEES (EFFECTIVE 08/16/2021)

Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021
Note: This is only a partial list of typical Planning fees. *Time and Materials
Table 58 identifies typical fees that would be co llected per unit for hypothetical new single-family and multifamily development projects, based on the fees in effect in 2021 (see Table 57). Development fees in Entitlements
Planning and Application Fees
Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) Permit $500 fee
Pre-Application Review $2,500 deposit
Tentative Parcel Map $7,500 deposit
Tentative Tract Map $10,000 deposit
Site Development Permit (administrative) $2,500 deposit Site Development Permit (discretionary) $5,000 deposit
Site Development Permit (not except from CEQA) $10,000 deposit Use Permit (minor) $2,5001 deposit
Use Permit (major) $5,0001 deposit
Use Permit (not except from CEQA) $10,000 deposit
Specific Plan $10,000 deposit
General Plan Amendment $10,000 deposit
Development Agreement $10,000 deposit
Zone Change $10,000 deposit
Area Plan $10,000 deposit
Feature Plan $10,000 deposit
Variance $5,000 deposit
Public Works
Lot Line Adjustments $2,000 deposit
Grading Plan Check and Inspection $2,500 deposit
Water Quality Management Plan $1,000 deposit
Map Checking $3,500 deposit
Environmental
Environmental Review (Initial Study, Neg. Dec., EIR, etc.) Deposit TBD T&M* plus 15% admin fee
Peer-Reviewed Technical Studies Deposit TBD
T&M* plus 15% admin fee
Hourly Rate for Deposit Based Services
Planning (In-House and Contract Service Planning) $143/hr Public Works In-House Land Development Review $158/hr
Building and Safety $140/hr
City Clerk Dept. Billing Rate for Development Review $78/hr City Manager Dept. Billing Rate for Development Review $101/hr Community Services Development Review Services $176/hr
Finance Development Review Support $83/hr
IT / GIS Development Review Support $105/hr
Code Enforcement Divisional Billing Rate for Development Review Direct Services $78/hr
Police Dept. Billing Rate for Development Review $90/hr Contract Service Support (e.g. Attorney, Contract
Engineering, etc.) T&M* plus 15% administrative
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-96 this example make up approximately less than 3% percent of a home purchase price. Because the City does not have development impact fees, Lake Forest fees are typically less than most surrounding communities.

TABLE 58: PROPORTION OF FEE IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT COST FOR A TYPICAL RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT (2021)
Development Cost for a Typical Unit Single -Family (50 units) Multifamily (140 units) Typical City of Lake Forest estimated
fees per unit
$535 $188
Typical regional agency fees estimated
per unit
$19,000 $19,000
Total typical fees per unit $19,535 $19,188
Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021
The City periodically evaluates the actual cost of pr ocessing development permits when revising its fee schedule. The last review and update occurred in 2021.

After the passage of Proposition 13 and its limitation on local governments’ property tax revenues, cities and counties have faced increasing difficulty in providing public services and facilities to serve their residents.

One of the main consequences of Proposition 13 has be en the shift in funding of new infrastructure from general tax revenues to development impact fees a nd improvement requirements on land developers. The City requires developers to provide on-site and off-site improvements necessary to serve their projects. Such improvements may include water, sewer and other utility extensions, street construction and traffic control device installation that are reasonably related to the proj ect. Dedication of land or in-lieu fees may also be required of a project for rights-of-way, transit facilities, recreational facilities, and school sites, consistent with the Subdivision Map Act.

A typical local street requires a 60-foot right-of-way, with two 18-foot travel lanes. The City’s road standards are typical for cities in Orange County and do not act as a constraint to housing development. Table 59 illustrates the City’s road improvement standards.

TABLE 59: ROAD IMPROVEMENT STANDARDS
Roadway Designation Number of Lanes Ri ght-of-Way Width Curb-to-Curb Width Principal Arterial 8 140’ 120’
Major Arterial 6 120’ 102’
Primary Arterial 4 100’ 84’
Secondary Arterial 4 80’ 64’
Local Street 2 60’ 36’
Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021
The City’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP) contains a schedule of public improvements including streets and other public works projects to facilitate the continued buildout of the City’s General Plan. The CIP helps to ensure that construction of public improvements is coordinated with private development.

Although development fees and improvement requirements increase the cost of housing, cities have little choice in establishing such requirements due to the limitations on property taxes and other revenue sources needed to fund public improvements.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-97 4B. Non-Governmental Constraints
Non-governmental constraints refer to market factor s such as the demand for housing, the price of land, construction costs, availability of financing, and other factors that increase the cost of housing development.

DEVELOPMENT COSTS
Land Prices
The cost to develop housing is influenced by the cost of the raw land, the cost of holding the land during the development process, and the cost of providing services to meet City standards for development. The cost of raw land is influenced by variables such as scarcity , location, availability of public utilities, zoning, and unique features like trees and adjoining uses. In Orange County, undeveloped land is limited, and combined with a rapidly growing population, land prices have generally increased. A review of lots for sale and recently sold, using Zillow and LoopNet listings, found one vacant quarter-acre lot zoned for residential use in Lake Forest, zoned MDR and sold for $530,000 or approxima tely $53 per square foot (approximately $2 million per acre).

A small number of underdeveloped parcels with a single-fa mily unit that could be redeveloped with larger, single-family homes (with ADUs) or duplexes ha ve been sold for $735,000 to $1,200,000 or approximately $86 to $267 per square foot, largely depending on the location within the community.

It is difficult to ascertain the cost of raw land fo r multifamily development since there has been a limited number of recent multifamily property sales in Lake Forest. A 4-unit property (fourplex) at 23061 Village Drive sold in August 2019 for $1,425,000 or $121 per square foot ($356,250 per unit); a 2-unit property (duplex) at 23192 Saguaro Street sold in September 2019 for $1, 575,000 or $193 per square foot ($787,500 per unit); and a 5-unit property at 24512 Bendricon Lane sold in February 2020 for $1,931,500 or $200 per square foot ($386,300 per unit)
Cost of Construction
Construction cost is determined primarily by the cost of labor and materials. The relative importance of each is a function of the complexity of the construction jo b and the desired quality of the finished product. As a result, builders are under constant pressure to complete a project for as low a price as possible while still providing a quality product. This pressure has led (and is still leading) to an emphasis on labor-saving materials and construction techniques.

The International Code Council (ICC) provides estima tes for the average cost of labor and materials for typical Type VA protected, wood-frame housing. Es timates are based on “good-quality” construction, providing for materials and fixtures well above the minimum required by state and local building codes. In the 2018 edition of the Building Safety Journal, the ICC estimated that the average per square foot cost for good- quality housing was $129-167 per square foot for Type I or II multifamily construction, $113-147 per square foot for Type V (Wood Frame) multifamily construc tion, and $122-141 per square foot for Type V (Wood Frame) one-and two-family dwelling construction. Although construction costs are a substantial portion of the overall development cost, they are consistent throughout the region and therefore are not considered a major constraint to housing production. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic social distancing guidelines may increase constructions costs for an unknown period.

Construction cost increases, like land cost increases, affect the ab ility of consumers to pay for housing.

Construction cost increases occur due to the cost of materials, labor, and higher government-imposed standards (e.g., energy conservation requirements). The development community is currently producing market rate for-sale housing that is affordable to moderate and above moderate-income households.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-98 Cost and Availability of Financing
Financing is critical to the housing market. Develope rs require construction financing and buyers require permanent financing. The two principal ways in which financing can serve as a constraint to new residential development are the availability and cost of construction financing and the availability and cost of permanent financing.
 If financing is not easily available, more equi ty may be required for developing new projects. This results in fewer homebuyers who can purchase homes, since higher down payments are required.  Higher construction period interest rates for developers result in higher development costs. For homebuyers, higher interest rates translate into higher mortgage payments (for the same loan amount). This in turn reduces the purchasing power of homebuyers.

On May 6, 2021, the reported average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 2.96% with 0.6 fees/points (Freddie Mac, 2021). From 2005 through 2021, average monthly mortgage rates have ranged from a high of 6.76% in July 2006 to today’s record lows. For homebuyers, it is necessary to pay a higher down payment than in the recent past, and demonstrate credit worthiness and adequate incomes, so that loan applications meet standard underwriting criteria. While adherence to strict underwriting criteria was not required during the early and mid-2000s, the return to stricter standards is consistent with loan standards prior to 2001.

Approved and Built Densities
While the City’s General Plan identifies minimum and maximum densities that can be developed in Lake Forest, individual developers may opt to build at the lower, mid-range, or higher end of allowed densities.

Additionally, the City’s Zoning Code does not prescribe minimum or maximum densities, but rather relies on other development standards (minimum lot size, maximum height, and setbacks) to shape the scale of development. Recent projects in Lake Forest that are built or are under construction are consistent with the densities anticipated by the City’s General Plan, PC Development Plans, and Zoning Code and typically built within the maximum allowable density. The City ha s received feedback from the development community that the maximum density levels are realistic and achiev able, and the City requires projects be built within the allowable density.

AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS
In addition to the constraints to market rate housing development discussed above, affordable housing projects face other constraints. While there is a r ange of sites available for potential affordable housing projects, as well as projects that focus on special needs populations, financial assistance for the development of affordable housing is limited and highly competitive.

Multiple funding sources are typically needed to construct an affordable housing project since substantial subsidies are required to make the units affordable to extremely low, very low, and low-income households.

It is not unusual to see five or more funding sources assembled to make a project financially feasible. Each of these sources may have different requirements and application deadlines and some sources may require that the project has already successfully secured fi nancing commitments. Since financing is critical and generally competitive, organizations and agencies that provide funding can often effectively dictate the type and size of projects. Thus, in some years senior housing may be favored by financing programs, while in other years family housing may be preferred. Target income levels can also vary from year to year.

This situation has worsened in recent years. Federal and state funding has decreased and limited amounts of housing funds are available. Tax credits, often a fundamental source of financing for affordable housing, are no longer selling on a one for one basis. In other words, once a project has received authorization to sell a specified amount of tax credits to equity investors, the investors are no longer purchasing the credits at face value but are purchasing them at a discount.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-99 Nonetheless, the City has been successful in collabor ating with other stakeholders for the development of affordable housing in Lake Forest. For example, t he City recently entered into an affordable housing agreement with National Community Renaissance for a loan to assist with the development of the 71-unit Mountain View Affordable Housing Community. The City approved entitlements for the community with four incentives, that included reductions in the City’s development standards.

The City has collaborated through Development Agreements with several developers on affordable housing in new neighborhoods. The City has included Program 5: Facilitate Affordable and Special Needs Housing Construction, to continue this tradition and further enhance the development of affordable and special needs housing in the City. The following represent affordable housing in conjunction with the new housing developments in Lake Forest:
 Baker Ranch has an affordable housing apartment complex (The Arroyo at Baker Ranch).  The Portola Center development (under cons truction in 2021), which will be located at the intersection of Glenn Ranch Road and Saddleback Ranch Road, will feature an affordable housing complex age-restricted for senior citizens.
 “The Meadows Senior Affordable Apartments” were approved by Planning Commission on August 19, 2021. The project includes two- story 65-unit apartment complex, including 64 senior affordable units (of which 7 will be permanent supportive hous ing) and one market-rate manager’s unit and associated site improvements. The project site is located on an approximately 2.6-acre lot in the Nakase Planned Community located on the southeast corner of the intersection of Rancho Parkway and Bake Parkway.

REQUESTS TO DEVELOP AT LOWER DENSITIES
New State Housing Element law now requires the non- governmental constraints analysis to evaluate developer requests to build at densities below the density identified in the Housing Element sites inventory.

The following table presents the developed densities in recent multi-family and mixed-use projects in the Lake Forest, compared to the maximum permitted densities under zoning:

TABLE 60: COMPARISON OF ZONED AND BUILT DENSITIES
Project Zoning General
Plan
Permitted
Density
Built
Density
Percent
of Max
Sr. Housing – Meadows
(Approved but not
constructed as of 12/21)
Senior Affordable
Housing (SAH) in the
Nakase Planned
Community
High
Density
Residential
25-43 du/ac 25 du/ac 58%
Mountain View Affordable
Housing Community
(Approved but not
constructed as of 12/21)
Multifamily Dwellings
(R2)
High
Density
Residential
25-43 du/ac 36 du/ac 84%
Portola Center Senior
Housing Mixed Use
(Approved but not
constructed as of 12/21)
Mixed Use (MU) in the
Portola Hills Planned
Community
Mixed Use
43 Maximum
43 du/ac
29 du/ac 67%
Copper Leaf and Silver Oak
at Iron Ridge
Multi-Family Dwellings
(MF) in the Portola
Hills Planned
Community
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 18 du/ac 72%
Covera at Serrano Summit Multifamily Dwellings
(R2) with Planned
Development overlay
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 19 du/ac 76%
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-100 Arieta at Serrano Summit Multifamily Dwellings
(R2) with Planned
Development overlay
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 21 du/ac 84%
Brookland at Baker Ranch Residential (R) in the
Baker Ranch Planned
Community
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 13 du/ac 52%
The Rowe and The Courts
at Baker Ranch (mix of
multi-family and single-
family)
Mixed Use (MU) in the
Baker Ranch Planned
Community
Mixed Use
43 Maximum
43 du/ac
17 du/ac 40%
The Rowe II and The
Courts II at Baker Ranch
(mix of multi-family and
single-family)
Residential (R) in the
Baker Ranch Planned
Community
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 16 du/ac 64%
Arroyo Apartmen ts at Baker
Ranch
Mixed Use (MU) in the
Baker Ranch Planned
Community
Mixed Use
43 Maximum
43 du/ac
30 du/ac 70%
Avalon Apartments at Baker
Ranch
Mixed Use (MU) in the
Baker Ranch Planned
Community
Mixed Use
43 Maximum
43 du/ac
30 du/ac 70%
El Paseo Condominiums Residential (R) in the
Foothill Ranch
Planned Community
Medium
Density
Residential
15-25 du/ac 20 du/ac 80%
Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021
As illustrated by this table, the City has approved and the market supports projects at the middle to upper end of the density range. However, in order to ensure future development implements densities planned for in the Housing Element sites inventory, the City has relied on a capacity adjustment of 75% based on typical densities, consistent with default densities for lower income affordability. Combined with other adjustments, the City assumes a 50% capacity at mixed-use sites based on the maximum density allowed.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-101 4C. Environmental Constraints
According to the City’s 2040 General Plan Existing Conditions Report and General Plan Environmental Impact Report, there are multiple environmental hazards affecting residential development in the City. These hazards include geologic and seismic conditions, wildfire (which provide the greatest threat to the built environment), and human-induced hazards (including hazardous materials). The following hazards may impact development of residential units in Lake Fores t. None of the sites identified in the land inventory (Appendix A) have environmental constraints that would preclude the assumed level of development.

GEOLOGIC AND SEISMIC HAZARDS
Similar to other southern California cities, the City of Lake Forest is located in an area of high seismic activity.

Although no active or potentially active faults traverse the City, Lake Forest is loca ted in close proximity of multiple faults: the Newport-Inglewood-Rose Canyon Fault; the Palos Verdes Fault; the Whittier-Elsinore Fault; the Chino Fault; the San Andreas Fault; and the San Jacinto Fault. Surface rupture in Lake Forest is unlikely since no faults have been identified within t he City boundaries. However, the City is likely to experience ground shaking, the degree to which wo uld be based on the fault from which the earthquake occurs, its distance from the City, and the magnitude. Impacts of an earthquake include potential liquefaction, which occurs when the str ength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by intense ground shaking. Structures particularly susceptible to earthquake damage include tilt-up structures, unreinforced masonry buildings, older buildings, and mobile homes.

The City is located along the southwestern flank of the Santa Ana Mountains and contains areas with steep slopes, particularly in the Foothill Ranch and Portola Hills area. Portions of Lake Forest are located within state-designated liquefaction and landslide zones. After the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, building codes and design criteria were updated to address seismic oc currences. The Lake Forest General Plan Public Safety Element contains Goals, Policies, and Actions that address geologic and seismic hazards within the City. Policies include requiring special site-specific st udies in areas potentially subject to liquefaction and incorporating site specific seismic structural design as required by applicable building codes.

WILDFIRE
Parts of Lake Forest are located within areas identif ied by CAL FIRE as Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones, including the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Ar ea, the open space north of Portola Parkway between Portola Hills and Foothill Ranch, and a small portion ext ending south to Portola Parkway northwest of the Foothill Ranch community.4 These areas are within local responsibility areas and under the service area of Orange County Fire Authority (OCFA). The Lake Forest General Plan Public Safety Element contains Goals, Policies, and Actions that address wildfires and emergency preparedness in the city. These include regulatory standards such as ensuring residential building codes comply with California Building and Fire Codes, mutual aid agreements and coordination with OCFA and CAL FIRE, and emergency operations and preparedness plans. Although these standards may constrain development to an extent, they are necessary to ensure public safety.

4 “Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones in LRA,” CAL FIRE (October 2011).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-102

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RELEASE
The City of Lake Forest is susceptible to the danger of hazardous materials spills from highways, railways and industrial facilities that store, use, or dispose of hazardous materials. This danger is somewhat mitigated, however, by various State and Federal legislation regulating the use, stor age, and transportation of hazardous materials and the strict enf orcement of these regulations. A dditionally, the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station is approximately 25 miles south of Lake Forest. It was shut down in 2012 and permanently retired in 2013 after attempts to restart it failed. Although it is no longer operational, a large volume of nuclear waste is stored on site. Lake Forest is in the station’s “ingestion pathway zone,” that is, the area where radioactive material released from the plant could contaminate food or water and potentially be ingested. 4D. Infrastructure Constraints
Another factor adding to the cost of new construction is the provision of adequate infrastructure: major and local streets; curbs, gutters, and sidewalks; water and sewer lines; storm drains; and street lighting. All these improvements may be required to be built or installed in conjunction with new development. In most cases, these improvements are dedicated to the City, which is then responsible for their maintenance. The initial construction cost of these facilities is borne by de velopers, added to the cost of new housing units, and eventually passed on to the homebuyer or property owner. As noted in the Resources chapter of this Housing Element, public infrastructure and services are available for all the sites included in the sites inventory, including the capacity to accommodate Lake Forest’s total share of the regional housing need (RHNA).

Senate Bill 1087 (enacted 2006) requires that water provid ers develop written policies that grant priority to proposed development that includes housing affordable to lower income households. The legislation also prohibits water providers from denying or conditioning the approval of developm ent that includes housing affordable to lower income households unless specif ic written findings are made. Senate Bill 1087 also mandates priority sewage collection and treatment service to housing developments providing units affordable to lower income households. The City will provide a copy of the Housing Element to its water and sewer providers in compliance with Government Code Section 65589.7 and SB 1087. As well, the Community Development Department will continue to coordinate with the water and sewer providers to ensure priority service provision to affordable housing developments.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-103

WATER CAPACITY
Water service in Lake Forest is provided by three separate, independent utility districts: Irvine Ranch Water District (IRWD), El Toro Water Di strict (ETWD), and Trabuco Canyon Wate r District (TCWD). Most of the City (approximately 83%) receives its water from IRWD, one of the largest water districts in Orange County and a member agency of the Municipal Water District of Orange County (MWDOC), which is a wholesale importer and member agency of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD). A small portion of the City, the Portola Hills community, is located within TCWD service area boundary, yet is provided water by IRWD. IRWD receives its water supplies through a combination of groundwater from the Orange County Groundwater Basin, recycled water, and imported water supplies through MWDOC. The ETWD provides service to residents in the southeast corner of the City and re lies completely on imported treated water from MWDOC to meet potable water demands.

Both the IRWD 2020 Urban Water Management Plan and ETWD 2020 Draft Urban Water Management Plan state they will be able to serve 100 percent of projected demands for the City of Lake Forest in normal, single- dry and multiple-dry years. Because of this, the projected purchases from IRWD and ETWD are assumed to make up differences between demand and other projec ted (groundwater and recycled water) supplies.

Collectively, water supplies are projected to be suffi cient to meet demands in all year types through the planning horizon (20 years).
5,3
The City of Lake Forest General Plan Environmental Impact Report (EIR) analyzed potential impacts to water capacity as a result of implementation of the G eneral Plan Land Use Plan. When the net impact to potable water demand generated as a result of implementat ion of the Land Use Plan is compared to the supply available to the two Districts, it can be seen that both Districts have ample water supply to account for buildout of the General Plan. The General Plan includes a range of policies designed to ensure an adequate water supply for development and to minimize the potential adverse effects of increased water use.

SEWER CAPACITY
As with the water system, the City’s sewer services are divided up by three utility districts, IRWD, ETWD, and TCWD. Among the three agencies, there are approximately 215 miles of sewer main within the borders of Lake Forest. As of 2008, the IRWD MWRP had a plant capacity of 18 million gallons per day (mgd) but it was recently expanded to a capacity of 28 mgd. As of 2014, the ETWD LAWRP had a plant capacity of 7.5 mgd but only approximately 3.43 mgd was being conveyed to the LAWRP for treatment. As discussed above, the only section of Lake Forest which TCWD provides wastewater services for is a portion of the Portola Hills community. The amount of flow capaci ty available to the Portola Hills Community is limited by the total capacity that TCWD owns in SMWD’s wastewater collection system and the Chiquita Water Reclamation Plant. The District owns 0.558 mgd of capacity in SMWD’s wastewater collection system and Chiquita Water Reclamation Plant. 0.428 mgd is reserved specifically for TCWD’s El Toro Road Zone. Of the 0.428 mgd reserved for the El Toro Road Zone, 0.158 mgd is reserved for its Portola Hills customers.

As Lake Forest continues to develop in the future, there will be an increased need for water and wastewater services, including a reliable source of recycled water. These needs have been addressed in the three utility districts’ master plans in coordination with the City. It will require that the Districts continue to implement phased improvements to some pump stations, sewer mains, and the various wastewater treatment plants when triggered by growth.

Based on implementation of the General Plan Land Use Plan with which this sites inventory is consistent, the projected flows for each District are not expect ed to exceed the treatment capacity available for the Districts. This assumes that the majority of the flow generated in the IRWD service area is conveyed to the LAWRP for treatment. There may be local infrastructure impacts for each of the focus areas as identified in the General Plan. Sub-Area master plans or devel opment impact studies may be required by IRWD and

5 “2020 Urban Water Management Plan: Irvine Ranch Water District,” Irvine Ranch Water District (June 2021).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-104 ETWD for each of the focus areas to determine infrastructure impacts.

While full buildout of the development in the Genera l Plan would slightly increase the existing treatment demand at the Districts’ treatment plants, the General Plan includes a range of policies designed to ensure an adequate wastewater treatment capacity for development. The Districts must also periodically review and update their Master Plans. As growth continues to oc cur within the Planning Area and prior to the approval of new development, the Districts will identify necessary system upgrades and capacity enhancements to meet growth in coordination with the City.

STORM WATER DRAINAGE
The City of Lake Forest spans three watershed areas wi th five natural creeks. A flood control system has been constructed to direct runoff away from develop ed areas and prevent flooding from rain. The Orange County Flood Control District (OCFCD) is responsible for regional flood control and maintains several facilities within the City. The City works closel y with OCFCD to determine needs for flood control improvements and to identify improvements needed to accommodate proposed development projects. With these existing facilities and review procedures in place, the City’s flood control system is not expected to limit development during the planning period.

ELECTRIC, GAS, AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Southern California Edison (SCE) provides electr ical service and Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) provides natural gas services to residences and businesses throughout the City of Lake Forest.

SCE provides electricity service to 15 million peo ple over an approximately 50,000 square mile area throughout southern California. 6 SoCalGas provides natural gas service to approximately 21.6 million customers, spanning roughly 20,000 miles. 7 Infrastructure to deliver electricity and natural gas throughout Lake Forest is currently in place. SCE and SoCalGas can generally can provide these services to newer development on request.

Telecommunications services in Lake Forest are provided by a variety of service providers including AT&T and Spectrum. Infrastructure to deliver telecommunications throughout Lake Forest is currently in place and can generally be provided to newer development upon request.

6 “About Us,” Southern California Edison, https://www.sce.com/about-us (November 2021). 7 “Company Profile,” Southern California Gas Company, https://www.socalgas.com/about-us/company-profile (November 2021).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-105

5. Housing Resources
This section of the Housing Element describes res ources available for housing development. Resources include land designated for housing development and financ ial resources to assist with the development of housing.
5A. Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA)
The City of Lake Forest falls under the jurisdiction of the Southern California A ssociation of Governments (SCAG). SCAG is responsible for developing a Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) allocating the region’s share of the statewide housing needs to lower-level councils of governments, which then allocate the needs to cities and counties in the region. The Regional Housing Need Assessment (RHNA) is a minimum projection of additional housing units needed to accommodate projected household growth of all income levels by the end of the Housing Element’s statutory planning period.

This RHNA covers an 8-year planning period (2021 through 2029) and is divided into four income categories:
very low, low, moderate, and above moderate. Pursuant to AB 2634, local jurisdictions are also required to project the housing needs of extremely low-income households (0-30% Area Median Income (AMI)). In estimating the number of extremely low-income households, a jurisdiction can use 50% of the very low- income allocation; therefore, the City’s very low income RHNA of 956 units can be split into 478 extremely low income and 478 very low-income units.

The largest component of Lake Forest’s RHNA (36%) is for above-moderate income households, which is primarily addressed through the development of single -family homes (attached and detached). Multifamily projects like apartments and condominiums, especially smal ler unit sizes, are affordable to lower income households. Housing for lower income households is not typically provided in the Orange County market without some level of subsidy or regulatory requirement, and thus the Housing Element will need to provide sites at sufficient densities, combined with programs to support affordability, to address the housing needs of lower income households.

TABLE 61: RHNA 2021-2029
Income Group Total Housing
Units Allocated
Percentage of
Units
Extremely/Very Low 956 30%
Low 543 17%
Moderate 559 17%
Above Moderate 1,178 36%
Total 3,236 100%
Source: Southern California Association of Governments, 2021 5B. Progress Towards the RHNA
Since the RHNA uses June 30, 2021 as the baseline for growth projections for the 2021-2029 planning period, jurisdictions may count housing units that have been developed, are under construction, and/or have received their building permits after June 30, 20210 toward their RHNA obligation. Since this date, 755 461 housing units have been developed, are under construction, or have received building permits in Lake Forest (Table 62). These figures are accurate as of August 31, 2021.

Jurisdictions may also count projects that are appr oved/entitled but not yet built or under construction;. 753 976 units in multiple income categories have been approved/entitled and are expected to be developed within the planning period. These credits towards meeting the City’s RHNA obligation are specified in Table 62, and the affordability of each unit type/project is described in the following sections. These figures are accurate as of August 31, 2021.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-106 TABLE 62: CREDITS TOWARDS THE RHNA
Project
Extremely
and Very
Low income
(0-50% AMI)
Low
income (51-
80% AMI)
Moderate
income (81-
120% AMI)
Above
Moderate
income
(121%+ AMI)
Total
Units Constructed/Under Construction/Building Permits Issued since June 30, 2021 Teresina 0 0 0 5731 5731
Serrano Summit 0 0 0 308200 308200
Portola Center 0 0 0 386217 386217
Portola Center Second Units 1 1 1 0 3
Accessory Dwelling Units 12 12 13 13 410
Subtotal 13 13 14 752451 755461
Approved/Entitled Units Not Yet Under Construction
Teresina 0 0 0 26 26
Serrano Summit 0 0 0 65 65
Portola Center 0 0 0 140 140
Portola Center Second Units 53 84 53 00 1810
Portola Senior Housing
Project
25 32 0 1 58
The Meadows (Nakase) 7 57 0 542 606
Mountain View 70 0 0 1 71
Portola Senior Housing
Project
25 32 0 1 58
Portola Center Second Units 5 8 5 0 18
Subtotal 107105 9793 53 544775 753976
Total 108 9896 67 1,2961,226 1,5081,437
Source: City of Lake Forest, August 31,2021.

Note: Units identified as affordable to extremely and very low- and low-income households will be deed restricted.

AFFORDABILITY OF UNITS CREDITED TOWARDS THE RHNA
Units credited towards the RHNA are distributed among the four affordability categories (extremely/very low, low, moderate, and above moderate) based on affordability restrictions (as is the case with affordable housing projects including the Meadows, Mountain View, and Portola Senior Housing Project ) or housing cost for those specific types of units (the case for all other units, excl uding accessory dwelling units and second units), based on real home rental/sale rates and established affordability levels. For example, tT he market rate rents and sales prices for both single-family attached and single-family detached homes in Lake Forest are typically affordable to households earning above moderate incomes (120%+ AMI), and are allocated as such, as discussed in the Housing Affordability by Income Level discussion above (this applies to Teresina, Serrano Summit, Portola Center, and the Meadows). The City has approved several (410) ADUs since July 1, 2021 and has an additional three inunits in the pipeline (discussed separately) ; based on information collected as part of the ADU application process and industry standards including SCAG’s ADU affordability methodology (discussed later), the City has assumed one two of the permitted constructed/under construction ADUs is are affordable to extremely low/very low income, one two is are affordable to low income, one three is are affordable to moderate income, and one isthree are affordable to above moderate income.

According to data collected from Zillow.com and Craigslist.com in January 2021, the average rents reported for Lake Forest were $1,816 for studio units, $1,841 for 1-bedroom units, $2,225 for 2-bedroom units, $3,193 Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-107 for three-bedroom units, and $4,933 for four or more bedroom units. Based on this data and the housing affordability thresholds shown in the Needs Assessment, low income (51-80% AMI) households (affordable monthly rent is at least $1,883) can afford a studio or 1-bedroom unit, while 2-bedroom units are generally affordable to moderate income (81-120%) households (affordable monthly rent is at least $2,241). Larger (3+ bedrooms) units are sometimes affordable to larger (4+ person) households but are generally affordable to above moderate income (120%+ AMI) households.

Actual unit affordability will vary greatly based on un it size, household size and other factors. Given the distribution of affordability by income level based on unit and family size as described above, the City has assumed that new multifamily housing generally develops at densities of at least 30 du/ac and will result in the availability of units at very low, low, and moderate incomes; and new single-family attached or detached units will be suitable for moderate and above moderate income households.

Condominium units are considered entry-level homes and based on pricing are designated as affordable to moderate-income households. According to Zillow.com, in January 2021, the median price for condominiums sold in the City was $485,000, which is affordable to a four-person moderate-income household (for which the maximum affordable purchase price is $493,708).

UNITS CONSTRUCTED OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION
According to City building permit records, as of June 30, 2021, 755 461 new units have been constructed, are under construction, or have building permits pulled in Lake Forest, of which 1 3 (an two ADUs and one second unit in Portola Center) has have been determined to be affordable to extremely low/very low income households, 13 (an two ADUs and one second units in Portola Center ) has have been determined to be affordable to low income households, 14 (an three ADUs and one second unit in Portola Center ) has have been determined to be affordable to moderate income households, and the remaining 760 451 units are affordable to above-moderate income households. Comp leted/under construction/building permits issued units include the following projects:

Teresina (formerly “Pinnacle at Serrano Highlands”)
Teresina is a single-family detached residential subdivision of approximately 24.6 acres with residences ranging from 3,238-4,329 square feet, including 4-5 bedrooms , and priced from $1,305,000. Teresina includes 85 detached single-family residential units. As of June 30August 31, 2021, 57 31 of the units have have been constructed or are under not completed construction since the planning baseline date of June 30, 2021; units constructed prior to this date are not counted as a credit towards the City’s 6th Cycle RHNA.. These homes are affordable to above moderate-income households.

Serrano Summit
Serrano Summit is a residential community composed of detached single-family residential and attached condominiums located adjacent to the City’s Civic Center. Serrano Summit includes 537 residential units, a portion of which have already been developed. As of June 30August 31 , 2021, 308 200 of the units have been constructed or are under construction since the planning baseline date of June 30, 2021; units constructed prior to this date are not counted as a credit towards the City’s 6th Cycle RHNAhave not b een completed construction. These units range in price from $700,000 to $1,200,000 and are affordable to above moderate- income households.

Portola Center (including Second Units)
Portola Center totals nearly 196 acres and includes single-family and multi-family residential units and commercial retail space, as well as other public and private recreational amenities. At completion, the 195- acre Portola Center site will include:
 860 residences, including, single-family residences, multi-family residential units and affordable senior housing above commercial space.
 10,000 square feet of commercial space.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-108  A 5-acre public park with playgrounds, picnic areas, and sports fields.  New trails with exercise stations.
 Three private neighborhood parks totaling more than ten acres, including one with a rec center and pool.
 44-plus acres of open space, including a 1.5-mile Pe rimeter Trail available to the public and adjacent private perimeter park with trail connections to Whiting Ranch Regional Park.

A portion of Portola Center has been developed. As of June 30August 31, 2021, 386 217 of the units have been constructed or are under construction since the planning baseline date of June 30, 2021; units constructed prior to this date are not counted as a credit towards the City’s 6th Cycle RHNAhave not completed construction.

These are all assumed to be affordable to above moderate-income households. An additional 58 units (the affordable senior housing project) are approved/en titled but not yet (2021) under construction and are addressed in the following section. It should be noted that the Portola Center project also requires the development of 18 second units , three of which have been constructed or are under construction, as of August 31, 2021 (but after the baseline date of June 30, 2021) . The affordability level of these ADUs is assumed to be consistent with the findings of SCAG ’s ADU affordability study and the findings for Orange County.

UNITS APPROVED/ENTITLED
Based on City records, 753 976 units have been approved in Lake Forest that are not currently (2021) under construction but are expected to be completed during the planning period. Of these 753 976 units, 102 will be deed-restricted affordable to extremely low/ very lo w-income households, 89 will be deed-restricted to low- income households, and 544 774 are affordable to above-moderate income households. An additional 18 10 second units will be provided in Portola Center, and the expected affordability of these second units is based on SCAG’s ADU affordability methodology for Orange County. Projects that are approved but not yet constructed include the following:

Teresina (formerly “Pinnacle at Serrano Highlands”)
As discussed in the prior section, Teresina will include 85 homes; as of August 31, 2021, 26 of these units are approved/entitled, but not yet under construction. All of these units are expected to be affordable to above moderate income households.

Serrano Summit
As discussed in the prior section, Serrano Summit will include 537 homes; as of August 31, 2021, 65 of these units are approved/entitled, but not yet under construction. All of these units are expected to be affordable to above moderate income households.

Portola Center (including Second Units)
As discussed in the prior section, Portola Center will include 860 homes; as of August 31, 2021, 140 of these primary units (excluding the Senior Housing Project, which is discussed separately) are approved/entitled, but not yet under construction. An additional 10 second units are also approved/entitled, but not yet under construction. All of the 140 primary units are expected to be affordable to above moderate income households; three of the second units are expected to be affordable to extremely very low/low income households, four are expected to be affordable to low income households, and three are expected to be affordable to moderate income households.

Portola Senior Housing Project
As previously described, the 195-acre Portola Center site will include a 58-unit affordable senior housing project. This project will accommodate extremely low/ very low and low-income households and, based on discussions with the developer, the City has assumed that 25 of the units will be affordable to extremely low/very low-income households, 32 will be affordable to low-income households, and 1 (the manager’s unit) will be affordable to above moderate-income households.

The Meadows (formerly “Nakase”)
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-109 The Meadows is a 126-acre subdivision located s outheast of the Bake Parkway/Rancho Parkway intersection. The property was previously a plant nursery. The project includes 541 single-family residential units in five neighborhoods, a 65-unit senior affordable housing, and a potential elementary school site. The project includes over 20 acres of parks, open space, and habitat restoration area.

The City is currently finalizing an Affordable Housin g Implementation Plan (AHIP) for the Meadows project.

The project will include at least 64 deed-restricted affordable units, including 7 permanent supportive housing units (assumed to be affordable to extremely low/ve ry low-income households) and 57 units affordable to low-income households. The remaining units (542) are expected to be affordable to above moderate-income households.

Mountain View
The Mountain View affordable housing project is an approved 71-unit apartment complex to be built at 24551 Raymond Way, near the northeast corner of El Toro Road and Raymond Way. The project will be developed by National Core Renaissance, an affordable housing developer. The project will provide housing for very-low income and extremely low-income households. The project includes the demolition of an existing office building located at the site. Funding for the project requires that all units (except the manger’s unit) be affordable to extremely very low/very low-income households. Of the 71 units, 70 will be deed-restricted affordable units for extremely very low/very low-income households and 1 unit (the manager’s unit) will be affordable to above moderate- income households.

REMAINING RHNA
As of September 2021, the City has already achieved approximately half of its overall RHNA obligation with housing units constructed, under construction, or approved/entitled (1,5081,437 units). With these units taken into account, the City has met its allocation of above moderate-income units and has a remaining RHNA of 1,8467 units ( 853 848 extremely low/ very low-income units, 453 447 low-income units, and 558 552 moderate income units).

TABLE 63: REMAINING 6TH CYCLE RHNA
Status
Extremely
Low/Very
Low
Low Moderate Above Moderate TOTAL
RHNA Allocation 956 543 559 1,178 3,236
Completed, Under
Construction/Permits
Issued (Since 6/30/2021 ,
accurate as of 8/31/2021 )
31 13 14 752451 755461
Units Approved/Entitled 105107 9793 53 544775 753976
Remaining Allocation 848 445447 553552 0 (with a surplus of 118 48 units) 1,8467*
Source: City of Lake Forest, August 31, 2021, SCAG, 2021 * The total remaining allocation is the remaining allocation of extremely low/very low, low, and moderate income units (848, 445447, and 552553, respectively). This results in a remaining allocation of 1,8467 units. The surplus of above moderate-income units (11848) cannot be deducted from the remaining allocation, which is based on the remaining allocation by income level. 5C. Residential Sites Inventory
Housing element law requires an inventory of land suitable for residential development (Government Code Section 65583(a)(3)). An important purpose of this in ventory is to determine whether a jurisdiction has sufficient land allocated for the development of housing to meet the jurisdiction’s share of the regional housing need, including housing to accommodate households of all income levels. This section provides an analysis of the land available within the City for residential development. In addition to assessing the quantity of land Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-110 available to accommodate the City’s total housing needs, this section also considers the availability of sites to accommodate a variety of housing types suitable for households with a range of income levels and housing needs.

This Housing Element identifies underutilized sites that can accommodate residential uses (including 100% residential projects) within Lake Forest. It is noted that Lake Forest is essentially built-out with no remaining vacant land designed for residential development. As part of the City’s recent comprehensive General Plan update (adopted in 2020), the City proactively planned for growth and identified key areas of the community (referred to as “focus areas”) wh ere mixed-use development is des irable. Moreover, the land use designations created and applied to these mixed-use areas allow for development of at least 30 du/ac, further supporting the City’s goal of increasing its housin g stock affordable to all income categories. This development density is uncommon in Lake Forest. It is t he City’s intent to promote the production of new housing units for all income levels, including for moderate-income households which have traditionally found it difficult to afford homeownership in Lake Forest.

A Citywide parcel database, aerial photos, and General Plan Geographic Information System (GIS) data were used to identify parcels for this update. In addition, numerous field visits were conducted and outreach with property owners was completed as part of the General Plan Update. Parcel acreages by land use designation referenced herein are based on Orange County Tax Assessor and GIS data.

MIXED-USE SITES
The City adopted a comprehensive update to its General Plan in June 2020. As part of this effort, the City engaged the community in a robust discussion regarding the potential for mixed-use development of key opportunities sites throughout the City. The intent of th is process was to strategically identify areas of the City most likely to redevelop over time and to provide appropriate intensity and density standards to facilitate successful redevelopment. As a result, the City ’s land use plan includes new mixed-use land use designations applied to property along the City’s major transportation corridors and around its activity centers.

The mixed-use designations accommodate dynamic, vibrant, mixed-use and residential development close to jobs, goods and services. These new mixed-use designated sites are fundamental to the City’s commitment to accommodate new residential development for all income levels. Through the General Plan update process, over 380 acres of land was designated for mixed use development at densities up to 32 du/ac or up to 43 du/ac (depending on the location) and an additional 95 acres was designated for mixed- use development at a density of up to 25 du/ac. In summ ary, the General Plan identified a capacity for at least 10,500 housing units in areas allowing for at least 30 du/ac (in areas designated for MU-32, MU-43, or UI-43), and another 792 units in mixed-use areas allowing for up to 25 du/ac (in areas designated for UI-25).

To harness the energy of the General Plan update and implement the new land use plan, the City immediately initiated an update to its Zoning Code to create new mixed-use zoning districts. The City conducted community surveys and other outreach and engaged a cons ultant team to create new zoning districts, regulations and development standards for City Council review and adoption by early 2022.

Goal LU-5 (in the City’s Land Use Element) addresses focus areas for economic stability and growth, and envisions Lake Forest as “a community featuring mix ed-use activity centers located along the City’s major roadways and trans portation facilities which a llow for the co-locat ion and harmonious development of housing, shopping, jobs, and public uses.” The Land Use Element includes policies that promote the revitalization of these key focus areas. Additiona lly, the Land Use Element includes policies promoting densities and intensities sufficiently high to encourage redevelopment of underutilized sites, and an expanded range of housing types and densities to meet the di verse demographic, economic, and social needs of the community. In this context, all sites identified for mixed-use development in the City’s General Plan are suitable for redevelopment, but only those sites best suited for redevelopment during the planning period have been identified and included in the City’s sites inv entory. In identifying thos e sites most suitable for redevelopment, the City considered the following factors:

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-111 • Site size and ownership patterns
• Developer interest in the property
• Redevelopment plans shared by the property owner
• Existing/past uses on the site
• Improvement to land value ratio
• Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial real estate • Site utilization/lot coverage/FAR
• Access to infrastructure, goods, se rvices, and transportation facilities • Site access and configuration
• Whether the site has similar characteristics to recent redevelopment projects in the region

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-112 Based on the factors listed, the Ci ty identified 78 parcels totaling approximately 162 acres as the most suitable and likely for redevelopment during the planni ng period, 60 of which (totaling 127 acres) are designated for development allowing at least 30 du/ac and identified to meet a portion of the City’s lower- income RHNA allocation. Although each of these sites are developed with office, industrial, and/or retail uses, the sites typically are underutilized and are suitable for infill development or redevelopment (potentially without needing to demolish existing improvements), have st ructures at or near the end of their useful life, and/or existing intensity of developm ent substantially lower than allowed by the City’s 2040 General Plan.

Furthermore, the current COVID-19 pandemic has seriousl y impacted the viability of many retail, service, and restaurant businesses. In recent years, many non-residential sites in the region have been redeveloped with mixed-use or residential-only projects. Appendix A identifies the sites included in the City’s inventory along with existing land use information.

To date (September 2021), no projects have been deve loped on sites designated (2020) for mixed-use in the 2040 General Plan. In order to determine a cons ervative development estimate for the mixed-use designated areas, the City assumed that these sites will only develop at 50% of their development potential.

This conservative estimate considers the following capa city factors, as identified in housing element statue (Gov. Code section 65583.2(c)(2)): land use controls, site improvements, realistic capacity of the site, and typical densities. Of the five factors only land use cont rols and site improvements, realistic capacity of the site, and typical densities are relevant when considering the capacity of sites in Lake Forest, Infrastructure constraints and environmental constraints are not applicable. Despite the fact that the City has the General Plan land use designations in place to accommodate it s RHNA and is nearly complete with the associated update to its Zoning Code, the City does not yet have the zoning in place to accommodate its RHNA and therefore has been found to have a shortfall of sites. The City must complete its rezoning effort to accommodate its RHNA, including its lower income RH NA requirements. The City has included Program 1 to specifically commit to acreage, allowable densities, and anticipated units to accommodate its RHNA for all income levels. In addition, to accommodate the ho using needs of lower-income households, the program specifically commits to rezoning pursuant to Government Code section 65583.2, subdivisions (h) and (i).

HOUSING AFFORDABLE TO LOWER-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
The California Government Code states that if a local government has adopted density standards consistent with the population-based criteria set by State law (a t least 30 units per acre for Lake Forest), HCD is obligated to accept sites with those density standa rds (30 units per acre or higher) as appropriate for accommodating the jurisdictions share of regional housing need for lower-income households. Per Government Code Section 65583.2(c)(3 )(B), the City’s Mixed Use 32, Mixed Use 43, and Urban Industrial 43 designations are consistent with the default dens ity standard (30 units per acre) for metropolitan jurisdictions such as Lake Forest and therefore considered appropriate to accommodate housing for lower- income households. Therefore, based on State law, sites that allow development densities of at least 30 units per acre are credited toward fulfilling a portion of the City’s lower-income RHNA allocation. It should be noted that, the City has also assumed that a percentage of the units at these sites will be affordable to moderate income households.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-113

SUITABILITY OF NONVACANT SITES
Because nonvacant sites comprise more than half of Lake Forest’s sites invent ory, Government Code Section 65583.2(g)(2) requires that the City analyze t he extent to which existing uses may constitute an impediment to additional residential development, past ex perience in converting existing uses to higher density residential development, market trends and co nditions, and regulatory or other incentives to encourage redevelopment. Furthermore, the City will make findings based on substantial evidence that the existing use is not an impediment and will likely discontinue during the planning period.

City of Lake Forest is e ssentially entirely built out. There is no vacant unentitled land remaining to accommodate new multifamily residential development. In order to accommodate its fair share of regional housing growth, the City must identify nonvacant sites to accommodate its remaining RHNA for all income levels (not only its lower income requirements).

Increase in Development Potential in Mixed-Use Focus Areas In 2018, Lake Forest began a 2-year process to comprehensively update the City’s General Plan. As part of the Update, the City evaluated the General Plan Land Use Map to determine if the land uses and development patterns reflected the community’s vision for the future of Lake Forest. An extensive outreach effort was initiated that included three community wo rkshops, pop-up events and an on-line survey, which allowed the City to collect input from businesses a nd residents in the community to identify the locations within the City where land use changes could be supported by the city, local market conditions and economic factors.

The General Plan Update process included the development of an Existing Conditions Report, published in October of 2018. The report identified developm ent patterns, socioeconomic conditions, and natural resources. It included important information of city demographics, housing supply, the size and composition of the local economy, commercial real estate market tr ends, as well as office, hospitality, and retail trends.

Key socio-economic, market and fiscal trends for the City of Lake Forest were analyzed and compared to its regional neighbors-or trade area- in order to bette r understand the key issues and challenges facing Lake Forest in the future and to ensure that future land use changes would be feasible and implementable.

A General Plan Advisory Committee (GPAC) was formed that included members representing the real estate sector, commercial center owners, business owner s, industrial uses, educational community, law enforcement, homeowners, tenants. The potential land use changes were discussed by the GPAC over the course of one year and their recommendations were presented to the City Council for consideration.

Five Focus Areas were identified, including the El Toro Road Corridor, Lake Forest Corridor, the Light Industrial Area, the Civic Center Area and the Footh ill Towne Center. Ultimately, new mixed use land designations, allowing development at densities up to 43 du/ac, were adopted as part of the General Plan Update. In building the sites inventory for the 6th Cy cle Housing Element, the most viable sites within the Focus Areas were selected for inclusion in the inventory. The RHNA for the lower income households was included in 4 of the Focus Areas. (The Civic Center area does not allow for sufficient density to support lower income households).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-114 Property Owner Outreach
Staff met with property owners and property managers in the El Toro and Lake Forest Corridors, the Light Industrial Area and the Foothill Towne Center during the preparation of the General Plan Update. The landowners were supportive of the inclusion of high-density residential land uses in the areas. Since adoption of the General Plan in June of 2020, staff has met with 2 property owners who own sites included in the 6th Cycle inventory. Both landowners have prepared prel iminary plans for the development of residential and mixed use on their sites. In one case, the owner would demolish all structures of the site and in another, the owner would modernize an existing office building, demolish several older non-competitive retail properties, and add residential land use at a density of 43 du/acre. In addition, a third property owner in the El Toro Focus Area has approved plans for the demolition of an existing office building and the construction of an affordable housing project. Lastly, during the 5th Cycle of the Housing Element, 2 existing auto dealerships in the Foothill Towne Center were demolished and replaced with medium density residential uses. Therefore, it has been demonstrated that existing uses on properties do not impede the development of new residential projects and that existing uses are likely to be discontinued during the planning period.

Assessment of Sites (Appendix A)
The City has completed a detailed assessment of t he suitability of all nonvac ant sites identified to accommodate its RHNA. Included in Appendix A, the City has described the existing uses located at each site, any known constraints to development, any cont act with property owners and tenants, and any other relevant information which supports the City’s finding that all sites identified in it s inventory are suitable for redevelopment during the planning period at densities and in tensities consistent with the realistic capacity assumptions identified for the site, by income level. In particular, the City has identified six key trends prevalent in the redevelopment of occupied sites in Lake Forest and south Orange County, more generally.

As described in Appendix A, all sites identified in the City’s inventory exhibit at least two of these trends. The list of sites identified in the inventory has been revi ewed by an economic consultant experienced working with the City and there are no known constraints that would preclude development of residential uses during the planning period. Moreover, given the significant increase in commercial real estate development potential created through the redesignation of these sites to mixed-use (through the General Plan and ongoing Zoning Code Update), commercial real estate professionals wo rking in and around Lake Forest fully expect to see properties turn-over for redevelopment at levels not previously seen, given the newness of these opportunities. While the City of Lake Forest has only recently adopted a new Land Use Map with new land use designations to allow for the redevelopment of underutilized sites, many of its neighbors (Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo, Irvine) initiated similar efforts in t he preceding years and have seen success in redeveloping sites such as Laguna Hills Mall.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-115 Development Trends
In addition to the site characteristics described above for mixed-use sites, the City has specifically considered six trends present in the region that have been identified as factors contributing to the likelihood of a site’s redevelopment. These factors, which are described belo w, are identified by their applicationapplicability to each site anticipated to accommodate a portion of the City’s lower-income RHNA in Appendix A. The factors include:

1. Oversupply of Retail

2. Discontinuation of Office Uses

3. Known Vacancies/Buildings for Rent or Sale

4. Opportunity for Infill Development

5. Expressed Interest from Property Owners/Developers

1.6. Unique Site Characteristics (Low Utilization/Blighted Conditions)

1. Oversupply of Retail
Local market trends were presented to the City coun cil by the Kosmont Companies in May of 2021, in a presentation entitled “Resetting the Economic Development Table: Public and Private Investment Beyond COVID”. The presentation noted that store closures and e-commerce is driving changes at malls and retail centers and that retail downsizing is being replaced by new blended use, including residential. Lake Forest is “over-retailed” and the quality of existing retail center s continues to diminish. There is no evidence that commercial development will expand in Lake Forest; in fact, pressure to redevelop commercial property into mixed-use or residential projects is extremely high . The City of Lake Forest has historically had two concentrations of commercial activity: the area adjacent to the Interstate 5 Free way at El Toro Road and Lake Forest Drive, and the Foothill To wn center north of the Foothill Co rridor State Highway 241. The El Toro Road corridor is flanked by large commercial centers that served as a hub of activity in the Saddleback Valley in the 1970’s and 80’s. In contrast, the Foothill Towne Center, north of the 241 includes a mix of big box retailers, in-line commercial tenants, movie theatre s and offices. The El Toro Road corridor must now compete with commercial centers on the south side of the I-5 Freeway, including a planned mixed-use site on a former regional mall in Laguna Hills and the Irvine Spectrum located 2 miles to the north along the I-5.

Irvine Spectrum includes 1.2 million square feet of retail, restaurant and entertainment uses. Faced with this strong retail competition to the north and aging and dat ed commercial centers adjac ent to the I-5 corridor, property owners have expressed strong interest in transitioning to residential and mixed-use projects.

On January 25, 2022 the OC Register published an article titled “Malls adding apartments to offset dwindling numbers of shoppers”, cataloging a series of at least 10 southern California malls which have plans to add residential development to their footprint. As described in the article, malls in southern California planning to add residential uses are following national trends wh ereby at least 192 malls across the country have proposals to add housing. Consumer preferences hav e shifted away from traditional big-box retail environments to more experience-based shopping areas and online retail, a trend that has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Regional development trends include the addition of residential uses to MainPlace Mall in Santa Ana, the mixture of residential and nonresidential uses at Huntington Beach’s Bella Terra and Glendale’s The Americana on Brand, and plans to develop residential uses at malls in Woodland Hills, Laguna Hills, Redondo Beach, and Studio City (among others).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-116 The article lists the following apart ments at southern California malls, included here to demonstrate the development trend and potential for the redevelopment of retail uses in the City of Lake Forest:
• Bella Terra, Huntington Beach: The mall has 467 units, built in 2013, according to CoStar. • The Americana on Brand, Glendale: Has 242 luxury units on the mall’s west side. • Village at Laguna Hills Mall: Owner Merlone Geier Partners is seeking city approval to build 1,200 to 1,500 apartments, plus a boutique hotel and 390,000 to 520,000 square feet of office space. • Promenade mall, Woodland Hills: Won city approval in December for a $1 billion project to build 1,432 apartments, a 28-story office tower, two hotels with 572 rooms, and a 10,000-seat entertainment and sports center.
• Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza in South L.A.: New owner Harridge Development Group, which acquired the mall in August, is ev aluating a new redevelopment plan that will include “some sort of residential,” a company official said.
• South Bay Galleria, Redondo Beach: The first phas e of a redevelopment plan includes a 300-unit apartment building, plus a 150-room boutique hotel, 75,000 square feet of office space, a new plaza and a new open-air retail and dining area. Timing for construction of the apartments has yet to be determined, a spokesman said.
• Buena Park Mall: Merlone Geier Partners acquired t he Sears building at the mall and is working with the city to develop a plan that will have a re sidential component, said Managing Partner Scott McPherson. The initial plan included 1,300 apartment s and townhomes, “but that’s subject to change,” he said.
• The Shops at Sportsman’s Lodge, Studio City: Deve lopers transforming the iconic 1960s hotel into a retail center announced in August they plan to raze the last remnants of the hotel and build a mixed- use housing development with 520 apartments units.
• NoHo West, North Hollywood: Apartment developer Trammell Crow plans to build 642 apartments on a part of the parking lot in the mall’s northeast corner it acquired from mall owner Merlone Geier Partners.
• Santa Monica’s Third Street Promenade: A plan developed last year encourages the city to consider rezoning parts of the retail district for housing and hotels among other strategies to revitalize an area that’s seeing rising vacancies in the face of online shopping and the pandemic, according to online news reports.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-117

2. Discontinuation of Office Uses
The City finds that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a real impact on commercial real estate and that office usespace will decline in demand as businesses maintain a long-term work from home option. A Cushman & Wakefield Orange County market report prepared for the Orange County mark et indicates office vacancies have been on the rise over the past year and are presently at 15.9% (Cushman & Wakefield, Marketbeat OC Office, Q2 2021).

In Lake Forest, the redevelopment of an underutilized offi ce property into an affordable housing project (Mountain View) demonstrates that t he market is ready to take advantage of the opportunity to repurpose sites in Lake Forest for residential uses, including affordable housing. The Mountain View Affordable Housing Community is a 71-unit apartment complex located at 24551 Raymond Way, near the northeast corner of El Toro Road and Raymond Way. The project will provide housing for low-income households. It is being developed by National Core Renaissance, an affordable housing developer. Mountain View is within walking distance of schools, grocery stores, and retail. Re sidents of Mountain View will have access to onsite amenities such as laundry facilities, a beautiful cour tyard featuring outdoor fireplaces, leisure areas, and a playground. A community center will serve as the hub for activities and services for residents and the neighborhood at large. Onsite programming will be offered by the Hope through Housing Foundation, providing services that give residents the resources and support they need to thrive. High-quality wraparound supportive services will be offered onsite to residents who have previously experienced homelessness and will be overseen by Hope through Housing’s services coordinator.

There are other regional trends of the demolition of office uses for residential development. For example, the City of Newport Beach recently approved a new apartment project in the Airport Area which will include the demolition of an existing 33,000 square foot office bu ilding to allow for the development of nearly 200 new rental housing units, including affordable units.

3. Known Vacancies/Buildings for Rent or Sale
The City has conducted an inquiry to identify vacancies and buildings for rent or sale in Lake Forest that are included in Appendix A. Many of the sites identified in the inventory have vacancies, and in some cases, the entire site is unoccupied (as of December 2021). Thes e sites are particularly well-suited for redevelopment because property owners are incentivized to think about the highest and best use of their property to maximize profit in the face of vacancies.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-118

4. Opportunity for Infill Development
The retail areas in Foothill Towne Center, which are dominated by big-box retailers and abundant surface parking, have been impacted by changing consumer preferences in shopping with the explosionrapid growth of e-commerce facilities. According to a report from CBRE Group, e-commerce will account for 26% of all retail sales in the US by 2025. The Towne Center area also includes an auto mall, with only one dealer left in operation. Two dealerships closed in the 2000’s and were replaced with 219 units of medium density residential uses. At this location, the City anticipates that existing retail uses can and will stay, and new residential development can be accommodated at the location without demolishing existing uses. This pattern is seen at Laguna Hills Mall where new residential development will be introduced at an aging mall, revitalizing the project area for residential and nonresidential tenants.

This trend reinforcessupports the oversupply of retail trend describesd earlier, including the range of residential development projects at sSouthern California malls. These projects represent the development of infill residential uses at underutilized/underperforming retail centers. As described previously, this trend can be seen in nearly a dozen sSouthern California communities, including in Orange County, as well as nearly 200 mall sites throughout the country.

5. Expressed Interest from Property Owners/Developers
The City regularly receives inquiries from the development community regarding opportunities in the El Toro and Lake Forest Focus Areas. Of note, the new owner of a 9-story office building and surroundingadjacent fast food uses has met with the City and informed staff that that the lease of the tenant lease of the office building will expire in 2024. The owner has engaged a design team and prepared preliminary concepts for the development of office and residential uses on the entire property holding. Sites where developers and/or property owners have expressed interest in developing residential uses in the site are identified in Appendix A.

6. Unique Site Characteristics (Low Utilization/Blighted Conditions) Lastly, tThe City has visually inspected each site to determine if the existing uses represent a reasonable utilization of the site based on similar financially successful projects/centers in the region or if there are unique visual characteristicsclues that would indicate the si te is not well-maintained and property owners may be interested in selling the property for a higher return. In particular, the City considered the site’s existing parking configuration (including whether the parking lots appear regularly occupied), ingress/egress issues, the visualvisible condition of the building and landscaping (whether or not it’s in need of repair), and other factors present through a visual inspection. Given the oversupply of retail and availability of retail options in the City and region, marginal uses and buildings are not expected to continue remaining competitive and their corresponding property value is likely higher with the option to develop residential uses on the site.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-119 In 2021, the City of Lake Forest approved the redeve lopment of the Nakase property, a 125-acre former nursery site, to allow for the development of up to 60 5 homes and associated public facilities and services.

This development opportunity representedThe project site was a significantly underutilized site in the City of Lake Forest and is an example of how an underutilized site can be redeveloped for residential uses.

In Lake Forest, sites developed for industrial uses al so represent some of the City’s most underutilized property. The Opportunities Study is a comprehensiv e planning process that the City of Lake Forest undertook to rezone nearly 838 acres of land zoned for busi ness and industrial use on 5 properties in Lake Forest. The zoning changes allowed for a new plan with residential uses and facilities such as a sports park and community / civic center. As part of the Opportuniti es Study process, the City allowed for residential development at areas that were developed with i ndustrial uses; market demand resulted in the redevelopment of these areas into the communities of Baker Ranch, Portola Center, Serrano Summit, the Pinnacle, and Whisler Ranch residential neighborhoods. Through the General Plan Update process, the City identified additional areas (namely in the Civic Center Focus Area) where industrial uses currently exist but where residential uses are now allowed, similar to th e process of redesignating sites via the Opportunities Study.

Suitability of Nonvacant Sites Findings
The City has specifically analyzed whether existing uses constitute an impediment for residential uses on the site. Additional information provided in Appendix A demonstrates that existing uses on the sites identified to accommodate a portion of the City’s RHNA do not constitute an impediment for residential uses on the site.

Additional information regarding current operations and tenants, vacancies, properties listed for rent or sale, the demand for the current use, and contact with pr operty/business owners are included. The City has considered each site individually and has concluded that based on the substantial evidence provided, current uses are not an impediment to the sites redevelopment for residential uses.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-120

REALISTIC CAPACITY
To date (September 2021), no projects have been deve loped on sites designated (2020) for mixed-use in the 2040 General Plan. In order to determine a realisti c development capacity estimate for the mixed-use designated areas, the City assumed that these sites will only develop at 50% of their development potential.

This conservative estimate considers the following capa city factors, as identified in housing element statue (Gov. Code section 65583.2(c)(2)): land use controls and site improvements, realistic capacity of the site, and typical densities. Of the five factors only land use c ontrols and site improvements, realistic capacity of the site, and typical densities are relevant when considering the capacity of sites in Lake Forest; infrastructure constraints and environmental constraints are not ap plicable. While the underlying zoning currently allows for 100 percent nonresidential uses, the City has not seen any applications or had preapplication discussions for mixed-use projects where residential uses repres ent anything less than 80% of the site’s development potential. The City finds that it is not financially feasible or desirable for developers to redevelop any of the sites listed in the Housing Element inventory for 100% nonresidential uses. In an abundance of caution, the City has applied a 50% reduction to the maximum site capacity, but all evidence (including the Kosmont study) suggests that residential uses will comprise the vast majority of new development in the City, even if the underlying zone allows for 100% nonresidential uses.

Table 64 summarizes how the various factors identified in housing element statute (Gov. Code section 65583.2(c)(2)) result in an adjusted site capacity of 50 percent the maximum densities in the mixed-use districts.

TABLE 64: CAPACITY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS – MIXED-USE ZONES Capacity Factor Adjustment Reasoning
Land use controls and site
improvements 90% For net acreage due to on-site
improvements (sidewalks, easements)
Realistic capacity of the site 85%
Adjustment based on past
redevelopment trends in mixed-use
zones in Orange County and programs
to incentivize development in mixed-use
areas
Typical densities 75%
Based on Table 60, market rate
projects develop between 70-80% of
maximum capacity but affordable
housing projects are more likely to be
built out to maximum or above-
maximum (through density bonus
provisions) density
Infrastructure availability No adjustment Not applicable, no constraint Environmental constraints No adjustment Not applicable, no constraint Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-121

CAPACITY TO ACCOMMODATE UNMET RHNA ALLOCATION
The City of Lake Forest’s 6th Cycle residential capacity falls into three categories:
1) Accessory dwelling units
2) Underutilized residential sites, and
3) Underutilized sites in mixed-use areas.

As described throughout this section, the City has sufficient land appropriately designated in the General Plan for residential uses throughout the community to accommodate its RHNA allocation for the 2021-2029 planning period and the City is currently undertaking a Zoning Code Update to implement the land use designations included in the General Plan (see Housing Plan Program 1) . Moreover, Lake Forest has a proven track record of supporting development of a ffordable housing, working with affordable housing developers, promoting home types that are affordable to lower-income households, including multifamily projects and mixed-use developments, and addressing needs of the community’s vulnerable populations, including seniors. Sites designated to accommodate the City’s RHNA allocation for the 2021-2029 planning period are illustrated on Figure 2, Housing Sites Inventory, and detailed in Appendix A.

Accessory Dwelling Units
In January 2020, new State legislati on pertaining to Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) went into effect. The legislation amended Government Code Sections 65852.2 and 65852.22. The City subsequently updated its zoning ordinance for consistency with State law.

The City approved two ADUs in 2018, three ADUs in 2019, and seven ADUs in 2020. The City has taken significant proactive steps to advertise the opportunity for residents to construct ADUs, including information on the City’s website, hosting presentations to the Planning Commission and City Council, and answering questions from the public in-person at City Hall and over the telephone.

Lake Forest made a conservative estimate of the number of ADUs that will meet a portion of the City’s RHNA obligation. The City used the average annual number of ADUs constructed over the past three years multiplied by 8 (the number of years in the planning period), to estimate the number ADUs (at a minimum) to be constructed during the planning period.

The average annual number of ADUs developed from 2018-2020 was 4, multiplied by 8, yields the estimate of 32 ADUs to be constructed between 2021 and 2029. Th is is a conservative assumption and production will likely outpace this target during the planning period. Additionally, the affordability level of these ADUs is assumed to be consistent with the findings of SCAG ’s ADU affordability study and the findings for Orange County.

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Baker Ranch
58-75
8-13
38-44
45-57
Foothill Ranch
Port ola H ills
§¨¦
5 ALISO CREEK

BORREGOCANYON

SAN DIEGO CREEK

BORREGOCANYON WA SH

SERRANO CREEK
4 5
6 7
14 15
16 22
24 27
28 33
34 35
36 37
1 32
31 30
29 26 25
23 21
20 19
18 17
3 2
Figure 2: 2021-2029 Housing Element Site Inventory
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Assessor Parcel Boundary
Low Density Residential
Low-Medium Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
High Density Residential
Commercial
Mixed-Use 32
Mixed-Use 43
Business Park
Mixed Use Office
Professional Office
Light Industrial
Urban Industrial 25
Urban Industrial 43
Public Facility
Community Park/Open Space
Regional Park/Open Space
Open Space
Lake
T ransportation Corridor
Underutilized Residential Site (Density <30 du/ac)
Low-Medium Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site (Density > 30 du/ac)
Mixed-Use 32
Mixed-Use 43
Urban Industrial 43
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site (Density < 30 du/ac)
Urban Industrial 25
Lake Forest Dr
8 9 10
1112
13 42 43
41 44
40 39
38 Inset A
Jeronimo Rd
El Toro Rd
52 45
53 49 54 5546
51 56
50 57
47 48
64 65 6766
6863
58 5960
61 62
74 7572
73 6970
71 Inset A
Inset B
Inset B
Inset C
Inset C
DimensionDr
CanadaRd
Commercentre Dr
CentreDr
OrangeAve
AspanSt
RockfieldBlvd
Sources: City of Lake
Forest; SWA Group.

Date: September 13,
2021.
(Inset map scales vary)
Í
0 ½¼
Miles
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-125 Underutilized Residential Sites
The City has identified two properties currently de signated for residential development as suitable for accommodating a portion of the City’s moderate and above moderate-income RHNA allocation.

The first site is an 0.63 acre site designated for low-medium density residential. This site is the last remaining vacant residentially-designated site in the City and can accommodate up to 8 units for above moderate income households.

The City has identified Saddleback Ranch Apartments as an opportunity site for redevelopment. Saddleback Ranch Apartments is currently developed with 304 mult ifamily units (approximately 9 du/ac), which is significantly less than the maximum allowable densit y of 25 du/ac. To determine the development potential of this site, the City assumed that redevelopment wo uld occur at 80% of the maximum density (678 units) and subtracted the number of existing units (304) to arrive at a potential additional yield of 374 units. Half of the potential additional units (187) are assumed to be affordable to moderate-income households and half to above moderate-income households.

The owners of the Saddleback Ranch Apartments have met with the City on 3 separate occasions in the last 10 years to discuss their plans to demolish the existing buildings and construct a new 3-4 story apartment project. The property owner continues to indicate that there is an interest in redeveloping the site at a higher density consistent with the current land use designation and zoning standards. The property was constructed over 30 years ago, and is now reaching the end of its useful life. Significant remains and improvements (e.g., plumbing, electrical, and roof repairs) will need to be made to the property to keep it functioning in the coming years and it is likely that the site is now poised to redevelop given t he immediate investments that will be required. Additionally, the City of Mission Viejo, loca ted immediately to the property’s east, has identified sites to accommodate its RHNA in proximity to Saddleback Apartments. There is an energy and interest for redevelopment of these sites which spans jurisdictio nal boundaries. Given the age of the building, repairs required to maintain the existing use, the site of the site and development potential (in an area with very few sizable sites designated for multifamily development), the City finds that this is a suitable site to accommodate a portion of the City’s moderate and above-moderate income RHNA.

These vacant properties, identified in Table 65, have the potential to yield 382 units. None of these units are assumed to be affordable to lower income households.

TABLE 65: SUMMARY OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT POTENITAL ON GENERAL VACANT SITES General Plan Zoning Max
Density
Acres Realistic
Capacity
(units)*
Affordability
Low-Medium Density
Residential
(APN 617-064-18)
R2
Multifamily
Dwellings
15 du/ac 0.63 8 Above Mod
Medium Density
Residential
(APN 613-351-05)
R2
Multifamily
Dwellings
25 du/ac 33.92 374** Moderate/
Above Mod
Total 448.8 382
Notes:
* Unit count is based on 80 percent of the maximum site density. This estimate is based on existing patterns of development in residential areas.
** The City has identified Saddleback Apartments as an opportunity site for redevelopment. Saddleback Apartments is currently developed with 304 multifamily units (approximately 9 du/ac), which is significantly less than the maximum allowable density of 25 du/ac. To determine the development potential of this site, the City assumed that redevelopment would occur at 80% of the maximum density (678 units) and subtracted the number of existing units (304) to arrive at a potential additional yield of 374 units. Half of the potential additional units (187) are assumed to be affordable to moderate-income households and half to above moderate-income Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-126 households.

Underutilized Sites in Mixed-Use Areas
As described in the City’s Land Use Element, new resid ential growth is anticipated to occur in mixed-use focus areas located throughout the City. Although the General Plan identifies opportunities for development of up to 11,500 units in all of its mixed-use areas, for the purpose of this Housing Element and identifying the remaining units needed to meet the City’s assigned housing need, only highly desirable and suitable mixed- use parcels larger than 0.50 acres are included in this portion of the sites inventory. Of the 56 underutilized parcels identified in mixed-use areas which are planned to accommodate a portion of the City’s lower income RHNA, only one site (in the Foothill Ranch Towne Center) is larger than 10 acres. However, the City chose to include this site in its inventory due to the changing nature of the movie business and the potential for this large parcel to develop residential units on a portion of its existing surface parking area. The development potential at this site is 342 units. If the site were excluded from the inventory, the City would still have sufficient capacity to accommodate its RHNA allocation at all income levels.

Only 50% of the development potentia l at mixed-use sites has been allocated to accommodate the City’s RHNA allocation, to account for potential mixed-use and non-residential development on portions of the sites.

For example, a vacant two-acre parcel designated as Mixed-Use 32, which allows a density of 30 or more du/ac, is assumed a yield of 32 units for purposes of meeting the RHNA allocation. By building in this generous buffer, the City may accommodate development at levels higher than those identified in the sites inventory while ensuring sufficient site availability fo r units affordable to lower-income households for the duration of the planning period.

Table 66 summarizes the City’s inventory of underutilized sites in mixed-use areas. Available sites are shown in Figure 19 and are described in detail in Appendix A.

TABLE 66: SUMMARY OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ON UNDERUTILIZED MIXED-USE SITES General Plan Zoning* Max
Density
Acres Realistic
Capacity
(units)**
Affordability
Level
Mixed-Use 32 MU-32 32 du/ac 10 161
Ex Low/Very
Low, Low,
Mod
Mixed-Use 43 MU-43 43 du/ac 97 2,039
Ex Low/Very
Low, Low,
Mod
Urban Industrial 25 UI-25 25 du/ac 35 426 Mod, Above
Mod
Urban Industrial 43 UI-43 43 du/ac 16 339
Ex Low/Very
Low, Low,
Mod
Total 159 2,965
Notes:
* The City adopted its comprehensive General Plan Update in June 2020 and immediately began work on an update to its Zoning Code to create new zoning districts to implement the City’s new mixed-use land use designations. The new zoning districts are expected to be adopted by early 2022.
** Only 50% of the total potential yield at mixed-use sites has been identified to accommodate the City’s RHNA to account for the potential for mixed-use and non-residential development on a portion of the sites. Projects can be 100% residential.

As part of the City’s General Plan Update, over 383 acres were designated for mixed-use development allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac. This Housing Element only relies on 123 acres of the 383 acres designated for such development, or just over 32%. In addition, given that the City has assumed only a 50% yield at mixed-use Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-127 sites (regardless of density), the City has developed ex tremely conservative estimates regarding future development potential. It is entirely possible that new development will exceed capacities identified in the Housing Element and more closely reflect the development potential identified and analyzed as part of the City’s comprehensive General Plan update.

The City has a successful history of redevelopment of underut ilized/developed sites. Successful projects include:
 Foothill Ranch Auto Center: The Foothill Ranch Auto Center, which was previously designated for commercial development, was rezoned and redeveloped as a mixture of single-family and multifamily residential uses.
 Mountain View: The Mountain View affordable projec t includes demolition of an underutilized office building to allow for development of 71 units (70 affordable units).  The Meadows (formerly “Nakase”): The Meadows pr operty (approximately 122 acres) was previously a wholesale plant nursery. It is cu rrently (2021) entitled for development of up to 606 units and will include deed-restricted affordable units.
 Parkside: Toll Brothers redevelop ed an underutilized 30-acre industrial site, (located northwest of the Rancho Parkway/Portola Parkway intersection) previously used as a sand and gravel mine, with 195 single-family dwellings.
 Encanto: The Encanto project consists of 52 singl e-family residential units on 5.75 acres that was formerly designated Light Industrial by the General Plan and changed to Low-Medium Density Residential. The site was previously undeveloped but was home to temporary uses.  Opportunity Study Area (OSA): The vast majority of residential development experienced by the City over the last 15 years is a direct result of redevelopment of underutilized sites included in the City’s Opportunities Study Area (OSA). Following City Council approval of a General Plan Amendment, Zone Change, and Development Agreements, which paved the way for redevelopment of 838 acres of land previously zoned for business and industria l uses (on 5 large properties), the development community moved forward with preparing and submitting project applications within 3 months.

Regionally, Lake Forest’s neighbors (including Laguna Woods, Mission Viejo, Irvine, and others) are experiencing similar patterns of redevelopment of underutilized sites at densities and intensities not previously seen in the South Count y area. Development in these citi es demonstrates the viability of redevelopment of underutilized sites in the region cons istent with the City’s assumptions regarding development interest and viability. Recently, in the City of Mission Viejo, a Home Depot center was redeveloped into housing, new residential development was added next to Trader Joe’s in Laguna Hills, and the Laguna Hills Mall is adding significant new hous ing as part of a redevel opment of the underutilized commercial property.

In April of 2021, the City entered into a contract with SWA, an urban planning and design consultant, to prepare the Development Standards for the new Mixed-Use land uses categories included in the General Plan. SWA has teamed up with Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) and economic consultant. While SWA will draft development standards, including density, height, massing, form and setbacks, and prepare Development Standard Feasibility Test for one large site in each of the 5 Focus Areas to ensure that the allowable density for residential us es can be achieved. EPS will prepar e a corresponding proforma cash flow model for each of the tests to simulate the project economics of the concepts from the perspective of a private developer to evaluate the economic feasibility.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS
The sites inventory analysis reflects land use designati ons and densities established in the recently (2020) adopted Land Use Element. Thus, any environmental constr aints that would lower the potential yield (e.g., fire hazards) have already been accounted for. Any additional constraints that would occur on a more detailed Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-128 site review basis would be addressed as part of the individual project review process.

The City’s capacity to meet its RHNA allocation is not constrained by environmental conditions.

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ADEQUACY OF SITES FOR RHNA
As described in the previous section, the City wa s allocated 3,236 housing units by the SCAG Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) for 2021 through 2029. The City’s progress to date includes 755 461 units that have been constructed, are under constructi on, or have received building permits since June 30, 2021. The City also has an additional 753 976 units that have been approved/entitled. The City has 1,8476 units remaining to be accommodated.

As shown in Table 67, the City has adequate sites to accommodate the RHNA for all income levels.

For lower income units (extremely low income, very low income, and low income), the City has a remaining allocation of 1,3061,295 units and can accommodate 1,779 units on sites that allow densities of at least 30 units per acre, consistent with the assumptions for lower income sites established by Government Code Section 65583.2(c)(3)(B)(iii). This is further supported by the City’s history of successful redevelopment of underutilized sites, including the development of affordable projects. The City also has a surplus of sites for moderate and above moderate-income units.

TABLE 67: COMPARISON OF RHNA CANDIDATE SITES REALISTIC CAPACITY AND RHNA Candidate Sites Extremely
and Very
Low income
(0-50% AMI)
Low income
(51-80%
AMI)
Moderate
income (81-
120% AMI)
Above
Moderate
income (121%+
AMI)
Total
Remaining 6th Cycle
RHNA 848 445447 553552 0 (with a surplus
of 118 48 units) 1,8476
ADUs 8 14 9 1 32
Underutilized
Residential Sites* 0 0 187 195 382
Underutilized Sites in
Mixed-Use Areas* 1,167 608 979 218 2,965
Total + 327 329
(surplus)
+ 177
(surplus)
+ 622 618
(surplus)
+ 532 456
(surplus)
+
1,6581,579
(surplus)
Notes:
*The realistic capacity analysis of underutilized residential land assumes that only 80% of the potential capacity would be realized.

The realistic capacity analysis of underutilized sites in mixed-use areas assumes that only 50% of the potential capacity of development at 30 du/ac would be realized. If the sites develop closer to their maximum capacity, which has been realized as part of past projects, the City’s surplus of units affordable to lower-income households would be significantly higher. 5D. Housing, Financial, and Administrative Resources

STATE AND FEDERAL RESOURCES
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG)
Federal funding for housing programs is availabl e through the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The City’s use of federal funds is described in the 2020-2024 Consolidated Plan. As an Entitlement City, Lake Forest participates in the Co mmunity Development Block Grant (CDBG) program.

CDBG funds are used by the City to fund its Hous ing Rehabilitation Loan Program (see Program 11). The City does not currently participate in other HUD programs such as HOME, Emergency Shelter Grant (ESG) or Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-130 HOME Investment Partnership
Funds are granted by a formula basis from HUD to increase the supply of decent, safe, sanitary, and affordable housing to lower income households. Eligible activities include new construction, acquisition, rental assistance and rehabilitation. The City participates in the Orange County-administered HOME Program, which administers HOME funds to projects in participating jurisdictions. County-administered HOME funds for first time homebuyer assistance are m ade available to residents or employees of the local jurisdictions participating in the HOME program. Ne w development projects are typically allocated funding on a competitive basis.

Housing Choice Voucher Program Rental Assistance (Formerly “Section 8”) The City of Lake Forest works cooperatively with t he Orange County Housing Authority, which administers the Housing Choice Voucher Program. The progra m assists very-low-income, elderly and disabled households by paying the difference between 30% of an eligible household's income and the actual cost of renting a unit. The City facilitates use of the voucher program within its jurisdiction by encouraging apartment owners to list available rental units with the Count y Housing Authority for potential occupancy by tenants receiving vouchers.

Project Based Housing Voucher program is a component of the form er Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program funded through HUD. The program's objective is to induce property owners to make standard housing available to low-income families at rents within the program limits. In re turn, the Housing Authority or HUD enters into a contract with the owner that guarantees a certain level of rents.

Section 811/202 Program (Supportive Housing for Persons with Disabilities/Elderly) – Non- profit and consumer cooperatives can receive no interest capital advances from HUD under the Section 202 program for the construction of very-low income rental housing for seniors and persons with disabilities. These funds can be used in conjunction with Section 811, which can be used to develop group homes, independent living facilities and immediate care facilities. Eligible activities include acquisition, rehabilitation, new construction and rental assistance.

California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) Multifamily Programs Provides permanent financing for the acquisition, rehabilitation, and preservation or new construction of rental housing that includes affordable rents for Low and M oderate income families and individuals. One of the programs is the Preservation Acquisition Finance Program that is designed to facilitate the acquisition of at- risk affordable housing developments and provide lowcost funding to preserve affordability.

CalHOME Program
Provides grants to local public agencies and non- profit developers to assist households in becoming homeowners. CalHome funds may be used for predevelopment, development, acquisition, and rehabilitation costs as well as downpayment assistance. While CalHOME funding has been limited to disaster assistance in recent years, this would be an appropriate program for the City to pursue to begin to develop a local portfolio of housing assistance programs and funds.

California Housing Finance Agency (CHFA)
Offers permanent financing for acquisition and rehabilit ation to for-profit, non-profit, and public agency developers seeking to preserve "at-risk" housing units. In addition, CHFA offers low interest predevelopment loans to nonprofit sponsors through its acquisition/rehabilitation program.

Emergency Housing and Assistance Program (EHAP)
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-131 Provides funds to local government agencies and non-prof it corporations for capital development activities and facility operation for emergency shelters, transitional housing and safe havens that provide shelter and supportive services for homeless individuals and families. No current funding is offered for this program.

Federal Home Loan Bank System
Facilitates Affordable Housing Progr ams (AHP), which subsidize the inte rest rates for affordable housing.

The San Francisco Federal Home Loan Bank District provides local service within California. Interest rate subsidies under the AHP can be used to finance the purchas e, construction, and/or rehabilitation of rental housing. very low-income households must occupy at least 20% of the units for the useful life of the housing or the mortgage term.

Housing for a Healthy California (HHC)
Provides funding on a competitive basis to deliver supportive housing opportunities to developers using the federal National Housing Trust Funds (NHTF) allocations for operating reserve grants and capital loans. The Department will also utilize from a portion of moneys collected in calendar year 2018 and deposited into the Building Homes and Jobs Trust Fund to provide funding through grants to counties for capital and operating assistance. Funds will be announced through a Notice of Funding Availability.

Infill Infrastructure Grant Program (IIG)
Funds infrastructure improvements to facilitate new housing development with an affordable component in residential or mixed-use infill projects and infill areas.

Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program
The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program was created by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to provide an alternate method of funding low-and moderate-income housing. Each state receives a tax credit, based upon population, toward funding housing that meets program guidelines. The tax credits are then used to leverage private capital into new construction or acquisition and rehabilitation of affordable housing. Limitations on projects funded under the Tax Credit programs include minimum requirements that a certain percentage of units remain rent-restricted, based upon median income, for a term of 15 years. The City has included Program 5: Facilitate Affordable and Special Needs Housing Construction to continue assisting developers in gaining funding for the development of affordable housing through the LIHTC program.

Low-income Housing Preservation and Residential Home Ownership Act (LIHPRHA) Requires that all eligible HUD Section 236 and Section 221(d) projects “at-risk” of conversion to market-rate rental housing through the mortgage prepayment option be subject to LIHPRHA Incentives. The incentives to owners include HUD subsidies which guarantee owners an 8% annual return on equity. Owners must file a Plan of Action to obtain incentives or offer the project for sale to a) non-profit organizations, b) tenants, or c) public bodies for a 12 month period followed by an additional three-month sale to other purchasers. Only then are owners eligible to prepay the subsidized mortgages.

National Housing Trust Fund
A permanent federal program with dedicated sources of funding not subject to the annual appropriations.

The funds can be used to increase and preserve the supply of affordable housing, with an emphasis on rental housing for extremely low income households. Californi a is receiving approximately $10.1 Million for the program in 2019. Funds will be made available through a competitive process and will be announced through a Notice of Funding Availability.

SB 2 Planning Grants Program
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-132 Provides one-time funding and technical assistance to all eligible local governments in California to adopt and implement plans and process improvements that streamline housing approvals and accelerate housing production. Eligible activities include updating a variety of planning documents and processes such as general plans and zoning ordinances, conducting environm ental analyses, and process improvements that expedite local planning and permitting. The planning grants program is funded through the Building Homes and Jobs Act Trust Fund (SB 2, Chapter 364, Statutes of 2017). The City applied for funds through this program and was approved for funding of various programs.

California Community Reinvestment Corporation (CCRC)
A multifamily affordable housing lender whose mission is to increase the availability of affordable housing for Low-income families, seniors and residents with special needs by facilitating private capital flow from its investors for debt and equity to developers of affordable housing. Eligible activities include new construction, rehabilitation and acquisition of properties.

Southern California Housing Finance Agency (SCHFA) Mortgage Financing for First-Time Homebuyers The SCHFA raises funds for mortgage financing through the sale of tax-exempt revenue bonds. The City cooperates with lenders and the County in advertising the availability of the SCHFA program.

Supplement Security Income (SSI)
A federal welfare program for persons 65 and over and for blind or disabled persons of any age. "Disabled" means that you have a physical or mental disability that is expected to keep you from working for 12 months or longer, or will result in death. Medicare is a federal health insurance program for people who are 65 and over, for some younger people with permanent disab ilities, and for people with end-stage kidney disease.

SSI may provide total monthly income or it may supplement a low income. In addition to cash payments, SSI recipients are automatically covered by Medi-Cal, the state health insurance plan.

ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCES
Agencies with administrative capacity to implement programs contained in the Housing Element include the City of Lake Forest and local and regional nonprofit private developers. The City of Lake Forest Community Development Department takes the lead in implementing Housing Element programs and policies. The City also works closely with non-profit developers to expand affordable housing opportunities in Lake Forest.

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
The Community Development Department consists of four divisions: Planning, Housing, Building and Safety, and Code Enforcement. The Department coordinates development activity within the City to ensure planned orderly growth. The Planning Division administers the General Plan and Zoning Code, the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and other enviro nmental regulations, and provides primary staff assistance to the Planning Commission. The Housing Division manages the City’s Community Development Block Grant.

NON-PROFIT DEVELOPERS
The City collaborates with a number of affordable housing developers and service providers to accommodate the housing needs of Lake Forest residents. The follo wing are housing developers and service providers active in the region; several are included in the State’s list of entities with the legal and managerial capacity to acquire and manage at-risk projects.
• C&C Development
• The Waterford Group
• Community Housing Works
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-133 • National Community Renaissance (National CORE
The City has included Program 5: Facilitate Affordab le and Special Needs Housing Construction to work closely with developers to expand the range of affordable housing options in Lake Forest. 5E. Energy Conservation Opportunities
State of California Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings were established in 1978 in response to a legislative mandate to r educe California's energy consumption. The standards are codified in Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations and are updated periodically to allow consideration and possible incorporation of new energy efficiency technologies and methods. California's building efficiency standards (along with those for energy efficient appl iances) have saved nearly $80 billion in electricity and natural gas costs since 1978.5F
Title 24 sets forth mandatory energy standards and requires the adoption of an “energy budget” for all new residential buildings and additions to residential buildings. Separate requirements are adopted for “low-rise” residential construction (i.e., no more than 3 stories) and non-residential buildings, which includes hotels, motels, and multi-family residential buildings with four or more habitable stories. The standards specify energy saving design for lighting, walls, ceilings a nd floor installations, as well as heating and cooling equipment and systems, gas cooling devices, conservation standards and the use of non-depleting energy sources, such as solar energy or wind power. The home building industry must comply with these standards while localities are responsible for enforcing the energy conservation regulations through the plan check and building inspection processes.

Examples of techniques for reducing residential energy use include the following:
• Glazing – Glazing on south facing exterior walls a llows for winter sunrays to warm the structure.

Reducing glazing and regulating sunlight penetration on the west side of the unit prevents afternoon sunrays from overheating the unit.
• Landscaping – Strategically placed vegetation reduces the amount of direct sunlight on the windows.

The incorporation of deciduous trees in the landscaping plans along the southern exposure of units reduces summer sunrays, while allowing penetration of winter sunrays to warm the units. • Building Design – The implementation of roof over hangs above southerly facing windows shield the structure from solar rays during the summer months.
• Cooling/Heating Systems – The use of attic ventila tion systems reduces attic temperatures during the summer months. Solar heating systems for sw imming pool facilities saves on energy costs.

Natural gas is conserved with the use of flow restrictors on all hot water faucets and showerheads. • Weatherizing Techniques – Weatherization techni ques such as insulation, caulking, and weather stripping can reduce energy use for air-conditioning up to 55% and for heating as much as 40%.

Weatherization measures seal a dwelling unit to guard against heat gain in the summer and prevent heat loss in the winter.
• Efficient Use of Appliances – Appliances can be us ed in ways that increase their energy efficiency.

Unnecessary appliances can be eliminated. Proper maintenance and use of stove, oven, clothes dryer, washer, dishwasher, and refrigerator can also reduce energy consumption. New appliance purchases can be made on the basis of efficiency ratings. • In addition to the requirements of Title 24, the City encourages energy conservation through its land use planning policies. Lake Forest contains a mix of housing, employment, commercial, recreation, educational and other community facilities. Lake Forest is located within a jobs-rich portion of south Orange County giving the residents of the City acce ss to a variety of jobs within a short driving distance. Other opportunities for energy efficiency include the following:

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-134 • Voluntary Green Building program for residential remodels • Implementation of Citywide design guidelines
• Energy efficient improvements, including window replacement, are eligible for rehabilitation loan program
• The City’s existing network of on- and off-road bi cycle trails link residential areas to employment centers within Lake Forest and surrounding cities.

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6. Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
All Housing Elements due on or after January 1, 2021 must contain an Assessment of Fair Housing (AFH) consistent with the core elements of the analysis requir ed by the federal Affirmatively Further Fair Housing Final Rule of July 16, 2015. Under State law, affirm atively further fair housing means “taking meaningful actions, in addition to combatting discrimination, that overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based on protected characteristics”. These characteristics can include, but are not limited to, race, religion, sex, marital status, ancestry, national origin, color, familial status, or disability.

The AFFH analysis must contain the following:
 A: Outreach
 B: Assessment of Fair Housing
• Key Data and Background Information
• Fair Housing Enforcement and Outreach Capacity
• Integration and Segregation Patterns and Trends
• Racially or Ethnically Concentrated Areas of Poverty
• Disparities in Access to Opportunity
• Disproportionate Housing Needs in the Jurisdiction
• Displacement Risk
 C: Sites Inventory
 D: Identification of Contributing Factors
 E. Goals and Actions
While this section provides a focused analysis of fair housing issues in Lake Forest, several other sections of the Housing Element address the issue and are included in this section by reference. 6A. Outreach
Appendix B of the Housing Element details the public participation that was undertaken as part of the Housing Element preparation process. The City of Lake Forest has made an effort to involve the public in the update of its Housing Element and has solicited input from the public throughout the year-long Housing Element process. The City provided ongoing notification to local housing service providers that represent lower income and special needs populations, such as The Kennedy Commission, Welcoming Neighbors Home, and the Fair Housing Council of Orange County and conducted interviews with each. Appendix B to the Housing Element provides a summary of t he key comments received during the Housing Element update process, and how they have been considered and addressed in the Element. The City implemented the following public outreach program.

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PROJECT WEBSITE
A dedicated project website (https://lakeforest.generalplan.org/) serves as the main conduit of information for individuals who can access material online. The proj ect website launched in January 2018 (first associated with the City’s comprehensive General Plan Update) and is regularly updated to reflect ongoing community input opportunities, advertise draft work products, and answer commonly asked questions.

Since the launch of the Housing Element Update in September 2020, the project website received over 1,200 views from 950 unique visitors resulting in a total of 2,700 pageviews. The peak of activity happened coincident with the online surveys in December 2020.

VIRTUAL WORKSHOP
As part of the community outreach, a virtual community workshop was conducted to educate the community about housing issues and opportunities facing Lake Fore st, and to gather input on housing-related topics.

The virtual workshop was hosted on the project webs ite throughout the month of December 2020. The extended timeframe was intended to allow community members and stakeholders to participate at their leisure and in accordance with their schedule and av ailability. The Virtual Community Workshop consisted of three parts:
• Part A: Overview video describing Housing Elements and why they are important • Part B: PowerPoint presentation describing existing conditions in Lake Forest and the City’s Housing Element Update process
• Part C: Housing Element Survey (described below)

HOUSING ELEMENT SURVEY
The City hosted two online Housing Element surveys which were available from November 23, 2020 through December 22, 2020. The surveys asked for input on the community’s housing priorities and strategies to address Lake Forest’s future housing growth needs. A total of 62 individuals responded to the first survey, which focused on issues of home maintenance, affordability, home type, and living conditions. A total of 49 individuals responded to the second survey, which focused on community priorities related to housing. A summary of the key survey results is provided in the Housing Element Introduction section, with the complete results included in Appendix B.

STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS
The City invited key community stakeholders to meet with Staff to discuss housing issues in Lake Forest.

The City met with the Kennedy Commission, Welcoming Neighbors Home, and the Fair Housing Council of Orange County. The Fair Housing Council of Orange County provided specific input regarding fair housing issues facing Lake Forest residents, such as access to information and the process for training/educating landlords and tenants, and well as issues facing the region.

COMMUNITY OPEN HOUSE
The City is scheduled to host a community open house on the Public Draft Housing Element in early October 2021. At this open house, the City will present the Public Draft Housing Element and solicit feedback on the Element that will be considered and reflected in the final document. The City will specifically present information related to fair housing and describe the goals, policies, and programs that the City has added to the Housing Element to address this topic.

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ADVERTISEMENTS
The City of Lake Forest maintains various social media accounts including Facebook, Nextdoor, and Instagram. Starting in September 2020, and continuing throughout the project, the City posted updates to its social media platforms advertising opportunities to provide input and alerting the public to upcoming meetings and workshops.

EMAILS
The project team complied a database of community members and stakeholders who registered to be notified via email of future public engagement opportunities a nd key deliverables. Direct emails were sent to these individuals to publicize the Housing Element Community Meeting, the Online Workshop, the Fair Housing Survey, and the Public Review Draft 2021-2029 Housing Element. 6B. Fair Housing Needs Assessment
This section presents an overview of available federal, state, and local data to analyze fair housing issues in Lake Forest. This data is supplemented with local knowledge of existing conditions in the community to present a more accurate depiction of fair housing i ssues in Lake Forest, and a more informed perspective from which to base goals, policies and programs to affirmatively further fair housing.

KEY DATA AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION
In 2016, Lake Forest participated with 15 other Orange County Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) entitlement cities to prepare a regional Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (AI) to fulfill their HUD requirement and remove barriers to fair hous ing choice for all their residents. The AI examined policies, procedures, and practices within the region that may limit a person’s ability to choose their residence free from discrimination. The AI provided an overview of laws, regulations, conditions, or other possible obstacles that may affect an individual or a household’s access to housing in the region. It also presented local and regional demographic profiles, assessed the extent of housing needs among specific groups, identified existing barriers or impediments that may limit housing choice, and proposed actions to overcome those barriers.

The City's demographic and income profile, househol d and housing characteristics, housing cost and availability, and special needs populations are discus sed in previous sections of this Background Report.

Barriers to fair housing choice specific to the City of Lake Forest that were identified in the County AI and the commitments of the City to address identified barriers were incorporated into this AFH. Supplemental data analysis was conducted to further understand potential fair housing issues, within the context of AFH topics, at the city-level. Lake Forest is comprised of 16 Census Tracts, although several are only partially located in Lake Forest. Figure 3 shows the Tract boundaries.

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FAIR HOUSING ENFORCEMENT AND OUTREACH CAPACITY
The Orange County Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (County AI) was adopted by the Lake Forest City Council in June 2020 and “is a thorough examination of structural barriers to fair housing choice and access to opportunity for members of historically marginalized groups protected from discrimination by the federal Fair Housing Act (FHA).”8
For the County AI, a variety of tools were used for the community participation process, including community meetings, focus groups and public hearings. The AI preparers also reached out to tenants, landlords, homeowners, fair housing organizations, civil rights a nd advocacy organizations, l egal services providers, social services providers, housing developers, and industry groups to hear directly about fair housing issues affecting residents of Orange County. Evening comm unity meetings were held in Mission Viejo, Westminster/Garden Grove, Santa Ana, and Fullerton. Additional outreach was conducted for members of protected classes, including the Latino and Vietnamese communities. All community meetings had translation services available if requested in Spanish and Vietname se. In addition, all meetings were held in locations accessible to people with mobility issue. 9
The County AI describes the departments and organiza tions that handle fair housing enforcement and outreach in Lake Forest. The California Department of Fair Employment and Housing (DFEH) investigates complaints of employment and housing discrimination. The Fair Housing Council of Orange County (FHCOC) provides services throughout the County, including Lake Forest, to ensure equal access to housing. The Council’s services include outreach and education, homebuyer education, mo rtgage default counseling, landlord-tenant mediation, and limited low-cost advocacy. The Fair Housi ng Council investigates claims of housing discrimination and assists with referrals to DFEH. Community Legal Aid SoCal is a legal service provider serving low-income people in Orange County and Southeast Los Angeles County.

During the 2019-2020 report period the City of Lake Forest took the following actions (on its own or in cooperation with regional partners and the Fair Housing Council of Orange County (FHCOC)) to overcome impediments to fair housing choice identified in the regional AI and demonstrate and implement its outreach capacity to provide outreach and education to assure community members are well aware of fair housing laws and rights:
• Fair Housing Community Education – During 2019-20, the FHCOC regionally conducted or participated in 115 education and/or outreach activities, reaching a culturally and ethnically diverse audience, in which they made participants aware of fair housing laws and counseling services (including services to help households improve their readiness for a home purchase). Three of these activities took place in the city of Lake Forest. Regionally, over 1,900 people were served by these activities.

Through its various regional outreach efforts FHCOC distributed over 36,150 pieces of literature on fair housing, FHCOC’s services and other housing-related topics, in either English, Spanish or Vietnamese.

Additionally, throughout Orange County FHCOC held 21 training sessions for rental property owners/managers. FHCOC presented 2 fair housing seminars for housing providers in cooperation with the Apartment Association of Orange County (AAOC), at AAOC’s Santa Ana office. Nineteen general fair housing workshops intended for attendance by either housing consumers and/or providers were held throughout Orange County. One landlord workshop and two tenant workshops occurred in Lake Forest.
• Fair Housing Enforcement – On a regional basis, FHCOC staff received 96 allegations of housing discrimination and opened 40 cases where the allegations seemed sufficiently meritorious to warrant further investigation and/or action. Four allegations arose from Lake Forest, however none resulted in the opening of a case file involving housing in Lake Forest. On a regional basis, FHCOC also conducted 114 paired on-site, systemic tests for discriminatory rental housing practices, including 4 for

8 Orange County Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice , Prepared by the Orange County Jurisdictions and the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, August 6, 2020.
9 Orange County Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice , Prepared by the Orange County Jurisdictions and the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, August 6, 2020.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-139 real estate brokerage transactions and 4 for pre-application lending transactions, with 3 of these systemic tests occurring in Lake Forest.

• Housing Dispute Evaluation & Resolution – On a regional basis, activities provided by FHCOC included assisting 1,984 unduplicated households addressing 7,215 issues, disputes and/or inquires.

Of these, 78 unduplicated households, involving 273 issues, disputes and/or inquires, were from Lake Forest.
• Reasonable Accommodations – On a regional basis, 14 inquiries regarding reasonable accommodations and modifications were received by FHCOC that resulted in casework beyond basic counseling. None of the inquiries arose from Lake Forest. Overall, 13 of the 14 clients requested and received a reasonable accommodation, while another request was denied. It is under consideration as to whether an administrative complaint should be filed with the Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity (FHEO) Office of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). • Web-based Outreach – FHCOC’s website currently has an on-line housing discrimination complaint- reporting tool that generates an email to FHCOC. The tool is also used for other, non-discrimination, housing-related issues, which sometimes indirectly reveal discriminatory practices. The City of Lake Forest has a link to the FHCOC website where residents can access this information. • Monitoring On-line Advertising – Orange County rentals listed on Craigslist were monitored by FHCOC for discriminatory content (as permitted by staffing limitations). Any discriminatory advertisements were flagged as prohibited and FHCOC responded to these ads through Craigslist’s reply mechanism in order to inform the poster of possible discriminatory content. In many instances it was not possible to identify the property address and the identity of the individual making the posting.

When investigation was found to be feasible, the ad was referred to FHCOC’s investigators for possible additional investigation and enforcement action. Other on-line rental advertising sites (e.g., OC Register, LA Times, Westside Rentals, etc.) were sporadically monitored; however, the lack of an efficient text search function on these sites made monitoring them less practical. Regarding federally protected bases, without exception, among the ‘apt / housing’ Craigslist rental listings, the identified problematic postings indicated restrictions with regard to children under the age of 18 or improper preference for seniors or ‘older adults’ for housing opportunities that did not appear to qualify as housing for older persons (age 55 and over). Overt racial or national origin discrimination was not observed. Advertising that continued to limit access to housing for persons utilizing a federally-funded Housing Choice Voucher (often called ‘Section 8’) or other types of rental assistance was observed despite it having become illegal in California as of January 1, 2020. Advertising in the ‘rooms / shared’ area of Craigslist were observed to have a higher incidence of stated preferences that violated fair housing law. However due to the practical aspects of resource limitations and case law considerations of shared housing situations, almost none were not acted upon.

The monitoring of regional Craigslist and other advertising resulted in the filing of four complaints with HUD for violations involving familial status, all of which involved Orange County properties, none of which were in Lake Forest. One of these four violations was found on a non-Craigslist platform. The Craigslist monitoring also resulted in the filing of three complaints with the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing (DFEH) for violations of California’s source of income protection. These all related to new law, effective January 1, 2020, which made it illegal to discriminate on the basis of a person utilizing a federally-funded Housing Choice Voucher (often called ‘Section 8’) or other types of rental assistance. One of those complaints involved a property in Orange County.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-140 • Monitor Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data - Ongoing monitoring of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data continues to be infeasible due to limited resources at FHCOC. FHCOC last was able to conduct such analysis using 2008 data (then the latest available) in conjunction with the preparation of the 2010-2015 Regional AI. Analysis of updated HMDA data from 2013, as well as other mortgage lending practices, was included as part of the City of Lake Forest’s FY 2015-2020 Regional Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (AI), which was submitted as part of its Five-Year Consolidated Plan FY 2015 - 2019. Some analysis of more recent HMDA data is included in the Orange County 2020- 2024 Regional Analysis of Impediments, which is submitted as part of Lake Forest’s Five-Year Consolidated Plan FY 2020 – 2024.

The following general progress was also made:
• During 2019-20, FHCOC continued efforts to promot e housing affordability within Orange County. It provided services and outreach to organizations involved in the creation and preservation of affordable housing. These groups included the Kennedy Commission, Mental Health Association of Orange County, Radiant Health Centers (formerly Aids Services Foundation), Affordable Housing Clearinghouse, Mary Erickson Community Housing, Jamboree Housing Corporation, Orange County Congregations Community Organizations (OCCC), and Orange County Community Housing Corporation.
• During the 2019-20 report period, FHCOC continued to offer fair housing training sessions that were open to all local government staff. Any staff attending training could receive certification of their attendance.
• The FHCOC produced and provided written fair housing related materials in English, Spanish and Vietnamese to residents of Lake Forest, as well as for distribution at public locations operated by the City of Lake Forest. FHCOC also undertook specific outreach efforts to immigrant populations in low- income neighborhoods. On a regional basis, an estimated 1,150 limited English proficiency households were served during the 12-month program period, through a combination of telephonic contact and in- person education and outreach activities. FHCOC also continued to implement activities under HUD Fair Housing Initiatives Program grants, for both education and outreach and fair housing enforcement.

These program efforts specifically targeted fair housing services to persons with disabilities, minority groups and immigrant communities, especially immigrants with limited English proficiency. Program efforts included a fair housing testing program that sought to involve members of immigrant populations with limited English proficiency, both for purposes of enforcing fair housing laws as testers and as a vehicle to increase outreach to these populations.
• Through its status as a HUD-approved Housing Counseling agency, FHCOC assisted individuals, including those with limited English proficiency (LEP), with various housing related problems. This included being available to counsel and assist those who had received loans with documents, all prepared in English, which had terms that were different from what they believed or were informed they were obtaining, or of which they had less than a full understanding. Many of the other counseling activities under its HUD-approved Housing Counseling also assisted individuals with LEP.

The City of Lake Forest complies with fair housing laws and regulations as described in Table 68.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-141 TABLE 68: COMPLIANCE WITH FAIR HOUSING LAWS
Law Description Compliance
California Fair
Employment and
Housing Act (FEHA)

The Fair Employment and Housing Act
(FEHA) applies to public and private
employers, labor organizations and
employment agencies.

It is illegal for employers of 5 or more
employees to discriminate against job
applicants and employees because of a
protected category or retaliate against them
because they have asserted their rights
under the law.

The FEHA prohibits harassment based on a
protected category against an employee, an
applicant, an unpaid intern or volunteer, or a
contractor. Harassment is prohibited in all
workplaces, even those with fewer than five
employees.

Compliance is achieved through
strict enforcement in hiring
practices and regular training of
and by Human Resources staff.

Government Code
Section 65008

Covers actions of a city, county, city and
county, or other local government agency,
and makes those actions null and void if the
action denies an individual or group of
individuals the enjoyment of residence,
landownership, tenancy, or other land use in
the state because of membership in a
protected class, the method of financing,
and/or the intended occupancy.

For example, a violation under Government
Code section 65008 may occur if a
jurisdiction applied more scrutiny to
reviewing and approving an affordable
development as compared to market-rate
developments, or multifamily housing as
compared to single family homes.

Compliance is achieved by uniform
application of the City’s codes,
regulations, policies and practices,
including development standards,
design guidelines, application
submittal requirements, fees and
approval findings.

Government Code
Section 8899.50

Requires all public agencies to administer
programs and activities relating to housing
and community development in a manner to
affirmatively further fair housing and avoid
any action that is materially inconsistent with
its obligation to affirmatively further fair
housing.

Compliance is achieved through
consultations with community
stakeholders and support agencies
as part of program evaluating and
funding decisions. The 6 th Cycle
Housing Element Housing Plan
describes how each Program
addresses fair housing issues and
contributing factors.

Government Code
Section 11135 et
seq.

Requires full and equal access to all
programs and activities operated,
administered, or funded with financial
Compliance is achieved through
promotion/availability of activities
and programs to all persons of all
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-142 Law Description Compliance
assistance from the state, regardless of
one’s membership or perceived membership
in a protected class.
backgrounds to participate equally
in community programs and
activities.

Density Bonus Law
(Gov. Code, §
65915.)

Density bonus law is intended to support the
construction of affordable housing by
offering developers the ability to construct
additional housing units above an agency’s
otherwise applicable density range, in
exchange for offering to build or donate land
for affordable or senior units. Density Bonus
Law also provides for incentives intended to
help make the development of affordable
and senior housing economically feasible.

Compliance is achieved by
administration of Lake Forest
Municipal Code Chapter 9.152 –
Affordable Housing Incentives and
Density Bonus Provisions, which
provides for compliance with
Government Code Section 65915
et seq.

Housing
Accountability Act
(Gov. Code, §
65589.5.)

Provides that a local agency shall not
disapprove a housing development project,
for very low, low-, or moderate-income
households, or an emergency shelter, or
condition approval in a manner that renders
the housing development project infeasible
for development for the use of very low, low-
, or moderate-income households, or an
emergency shelter, including through the
use of design review standards, unless it
makes certain written findings, based upon a
preponderance of the evidence in the record.

Compliance is achieved through
the development review process
with is completed consistent with
the Housing Accountability Act.

Additionally, the City is in the
process of preparing objective
design standards to facilitate an
objective and equitable review of
applicable projects.

No-Net-Loss Law
(Gov. Code, §
65863)

Ensures development opportunities remain
available throughout the planning period to
accommodate a jurisdiction’s regional
housing need assessment (RHNA)
allocation, especially for lower- and
moderate- income households.

The City’s draft Housing Element
identifies a surplus of sites with a
capacity to accommodate the
City’s RHNA allocation. The City
has also identified additional sites
for accommodating any shortfall
that may occur with respect to
anticipated development density
capacity, that may be added to the
site list if necessary.

Least Cost Zoning
Law (Gov. Code, §
65913.1)

Provides that, in exercising its authority to
zone for land uses and in revising its housing
element, a city, county, or city and county
shall designate and zone sufficient vacant
land for residential use with appropriate
standards, in relation to zoning for
nonresidential use, and in relation to growth
projections of the general plan to meet
housing needs for all income categories as
identified in the housing element of the
Compliance is achieved through
adoption of the City’s
comprehensive General Plan
Update (2020) and the
implementation of Housing
Element Housing Plan Program 1
which commits the City to
completing the rezoning of sites
identified to accommodate the
City’s RHNA at densities and
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general plan. intensities consistent with those
specified by site in Appendix A.

Excessive
Subdivision
Standards (Gov.

Code, § 65913.2.)

Provides that, in exercising its authority to
regulate subdivisions a city, county, or city
and county shall:
(a) Refrain from imposing criteria for design,
as defined in Section 66418, or
improvements, as defined in Section 66419,
for the purpose of rendering infeasible the
development of housing for any and all
economic segments of the community.

However, nothing in this section shall be
construed to enlarge or diminish the
authority of a city, county, or city and county
under other provisions of law to permit a
developer to construct such housing.
(b) Consider the effect of ordinances
adopted and actions taken by it with respect
to the housing needs of the region in which
the local jurisdiction is situated.
(c) Refrain from imposing standards and
criteria for public improvements including,
but not limited to, streets, sewers, fire
stations, schools, or parks, which exceed the
standards and criteria being applied by the
city, county, or city and county at that time to
its publicly financed improvements located in
similarly zoned districts within that city,
county, or city and county.

Compliance is achieved through
the implementation of a fair and
equitable development review
process which is administrated
consistent with the Excessive
Subdivision Standards Act.

Limits on Growth
Controls (Gov.

Code, § 65302.8.)

Provides that, if a county or city, including a
charter city, adopts or amends a mandatory
general plan element which operates to limit the
number of housing units which may be
constructed on an annual basis, such adoption or
amendment shall contain findings which justify
reducing the housing opportunities of the region.

The findings shall include all of the following:
(a) A description of the city’s or county’s
appropriate share of the regional need for
housing.
(b) A description of the specific housing
programs and activities being undertaken by the
local jurisdiction to fulfill the requirements of
The City’s draft Housing
Element and the elements in
the City’s recently adopted
General Plan do not include
any provisions which further
limits (relative to the current
Housing Element and prior
General Plan) the
development of housing,
except such provisions as may
be required by state or federal
laws.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-144 Law Description Compliance
subdivision (c) of Section 65302.
(c) A description of how the public health, safety,
and welfare would be promoted by such adoption
or amendment.
(d) The fiscal and environmental resources
available to the local jurisdiction
Housing Element
Law (Gov. Code, §
65583, esp. subds.
(c)(5), (c)(10).)

Section 65583 stipulates that the housing
element shall consist of an identification and
analysis of existing and projected housing needs
and a statement of goals, policies, quantified
objectives, financial resources, and scheduled
programs for the preservation, improvement, and
development of housing. The housing element
shall identify adequate sites for housing,
including rental housing, factory-built housing,
mobilehomes, and emergency shelters, and shall
make adequate provision for the existing and
projected needs of all economic segments of the
community.

Subdivision (c)(5) provides that, in order to make
adequate provision for the housing needs of all
economic segments of the community, the
program shall promote and affirmatively further
fair housing opportunities and promote housing
throughout the community or communities for all
persons regardless of race, religion, sex, marital
status, ancestry, national origin, color, familial
status, or disability, and other characteristics
protected by the California Fair Employment and
Housing Act (Part 2.8 (commencing with Section
12900) of Division 3 of Title 2), Section 65008,
and any other state and federal fair housing and
planning law.

Compliance is achieved
through preparation and
adoption of a Housing Element
found to be in substantial
compliance with State Housing
Element Law by the California
Department of Housing and
Community Development.

Locally, the City of Lake Forest provides outreach and education to assure community members are well aware of fair housing laws and rights by providing in formation from the Fair Housing Council of Orange County at City Hall, online, and on request. The City has included Program 22 in its Housing Plan to further strengthen its fair housing outreach capacity in a num ber of ways, including biennial updates to the City Council, additional advertisements and education on the City’s social media platforms, and providing information to schools, libraries and other community facilities for distribution.

Other relevant factors include the City’s contract with Families Forward, an affordable housing nonprofit to operate the property as affordable housing, rent the units to income-qualified families as part of its transitional housing services, and to operate the units in full compliance with the lease and successfully provide housing to families threatened with homelessness. Together with its partners, the City of Lake Forest is committed to enforcing fair housing laws and conducting meaningful outreach to provide education and support to community members.

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Ridge Route Dr
Los Alisos Blvd
LosAlisos Blvd
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argueritePkwy
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Glenn RanchRd
Olympiad Rd
ToledoWay
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Rd
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El Toro Rd
TrabucoRd
MuirlandsBlvd
Portola Pkwy
Rancho Pkwy
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Blvd
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M I S S I O N V I E J OM I S S I O N V I E J O

R A N C H OR A N C H O

S A N T AS A N T A

M A R G A R I T AM A R G A R I T A

A L I S OA L I S O

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L A G U N AL A G U N A

W O O D SW O O D S

L A G U N A H I L L SL A G U N A H I L L S

I R V I N EI R V I N E
City of Lake Forest
Census Tract Partially or Completely
within Lake Forest*
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Low-Medium Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Mixed-Use 32
Mixed-Use 43
Urban Industrial 43
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Urban Industrial 25
Figure 3: Census Tracts within Lake Forest
Sources: City of Lake Forest; AFFH. Map Date: September 14, 2021.

Í
0 ½¼
Miles
* Census tract labels followed by an asterisk (*) denote tracts that include area outside of the Lake Forest city boundary.

Legend
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ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL DATA AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Other Relevant Factors
Lake Forest was incorporated in 1991 and is a relati vely new city in South Orange County. Prior to incorporation, residential development took place under the County of Orange. Less than 1,000 units were constructed prior to 1970. Since 1970, development has taken place primarily in Planned Communities, which served as the zoning standards. The Planned Community documents do not include any restrictive covenants or constitute a redlining practice. Since incorporation in 1991, the City approved several zone changes that allowed residential uses to be construc ted on land that had formerly been restricted to non- residential development due to the impacts of the form er Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro. These rezonings did not create any barriers, redlining practices or restrictive covenants.

Integration and Segregation
To inform priorities, policies, and actions, Lake forest Forest has included an analysis of integration and segregation, including patterns and trends, related to people with protected characteristics. Segregation generally means a condition in which there is a high co ncentration of persons of a particular race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or ha ving a disability or a particular type of disability when compared to a broader geographic area. Conversely, integration refers to a condition in which there is a not a high concentration of person s of a particular race, colo r, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or having a disability or a particular type of disability when compared to a broader geographic area. The following analysis will analyze levels of segregation and integration for race and ethnicity, persons with disabilities, familial status, age, and income to identify the groups in Lake Forest that experienc e the highest levels of segregation.

Dissimilarity Index
The dissimilarity index is the most commonly used m easure of segregation between two groups, reflecting their relative distributions across neighborhoods (as defined by census tracts). The index represents the percentage of the minority group t hat would have to move to new neighborhoods to achieve perfect integration of that group. An index score can range in value from 0 percent, indicating complete integration, to 100 percent, indicating complete segregation. An index number between 30 and 60 indicates moderate similarity and community segregation while an index number above 60 is considered to show high similarity and a segregated community.

There are a number of reasons why patterns of racial segregation exist (or don’t exist) within a community.

Some of these reasons may be institut ional (discriminatory lending practi ces) while others can be cultural (persons of similar backgrounds or lifestyles choosing to live near one another to provide support and familiarity). As such, discussions regarding segregation are complicated and there is not a “one size fits all” approach to addressing patterns of racial segregation.

Figure 4 shows the dissimilarity between each of the identified race and ethnic groups and white population for the City of Lake Forest and the Orange County metr opolitan region. The White (not Hispanic or Latino) population within Lake Forest makes up approximately 68% of the City’s population. The higher scores indicate higher levels of segregation among those race and ethnic groups. The City does not have any racial or ethnic groups with scores higher than 60 (indicating high similarity and segregation). Several race and ethnic groups (Other Races, American Indian, Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic) exhibit moderate levels of dissimilarity and segregation in Lake Forest (scores between 30 and 60), wi th most scores indicating moderate levels of segregation on the lower end of the moderate range.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-148 The highest levels of segregation within Lake Forest are Other Races (41.5%) and Native Hawaiian (40.2%), both of which fall within the moderate similarity and segregation range. However, it should be noted that only 102 individuals identified as “Other Race” and only 113 individuals identified as “Native Hawaiian”, and such small populations can indicate a pattern of segregati on that is not of signific ant concern. These scores correlate directly with the percentage of people within that racial or ethnic group that would need to move into a predominately white census tract in order to achieve a more integrated community. For instance, 40.2% of the Native Hawaiian population would need to move into predominately white census tract areas to achieve “perfect” integration.

When compared to the Orange County metropolitan region, Lake Forest exhibits lower levels of dissimilarity and segregation than the region as a whole for all race and ethnic groups, except for Hispanic, where the City’s index is slightly higher (32.4 in the City and 28.9 in the County). For the categories previously identified as showing moderate levels of segregation in Lake Forest, the Native Hawaiian dissimilarity index is 15 points lower in the City than in the region, while the “Other” category is 3 points lower in the City than the region.

These patterns indicate that in general, Lake Forest is less dissimilar and more integrated for most of the identified racial and ethnic groups, and the community’s most dissimilar community (its Native Hawaiian and “Other Race” populations) reflect trends seen throughout the region. This analysis suggested that patterns of segregation at the local level reflect those at the regional level as well, and that partnerships with regional agencies and advocates may be an effective way to address local issues of moderate segregation.

While not evident based on the Dissimilarity Inde x discussed above, the County AI does identify some patterns of White isolation throughout the County, including in the City of Lake Forest. The County AI points out that white residents have especially high Isolation values in eight Orange County cities (Aliso Viejo, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, and San Clemente) and that while some of these cities have lower non-White populations, Lake Forest’s Hispanic population suggests that White residents are disproportionately isolated.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-149 A potentially relevant contributing fa ctor to the County AI’s identifica tion of potential isolation of White residents in Lake Forest include land use and zoning laws (historic), which may have led to higher concentrations of White residents in areas throughout Lake Forest when compared to the region.

Source: Census Scope, Social Science Data Analysis Network * Not Hispanic or Latino
Diversity Index
Tracking the diversity of cities and counties through out California is crucial to understanding the shifting demographics of race and ethnicity in California and t he United States. Esri’s Diversity Index captures the racial and ethnic diversity of a geographic area in a single number, from 0 to 100. Scores less than 40 represent lower diversity in the jurisdiction while sc ores of greater than 85 represent higher diversity.

Additionally, scores between 40-55 represent low divers ity, 55-70 represent moderate diversity, and 70-85 represent high diversity. As shown in Figure 4, thereThere generally appears to be higher diversity index scores throughout the City of Lake Forest (compared to its neighbors), with the highest diversity index scores (>85) located along El Toro Road. The lowest diversity index scores include census block groups that boarder the City of Irvine, which are not very populat ed and comprised mostly of nonresidential uses. The Citywide average diversity index score is 67.1, which is slightly higher than the County’s average diversity index score of 66.7. The City’s diversity index is illustrated in Figure 5. As shown in Figure 6 , communities in Orange County with higher diversity index scores are somewhat more likely to be located in the more racially and ethnically diverse northern and central portion of the County than they are in the southern and coastal portion of the County.

Mapped Patterns of Integration and Segregation
FIGURE 4: DISSIMILARITY INDEX
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-150 Patterns of integration and segregation are also consider ed for people with disabilities, familial status, and income groups. Relying primarily on data available from the US Census, it is possible to map and consider existing patterns which may indicate historical influences and future trends by census tract and census block groups.

As shown in Figure 7, persons with disabilities are present throughout the Lake Forest community, with higher concentrations in areas near transit and major activity centers, with a similar distribution to the adjacent cities of Mission Viejo and Laguna Hills . In Lake Forest, tT he highest concentration of persons with disabilities exists along both sides of El Toro Road, just east of I-5. This area is composed primarily of single-family detached homes and commercial development with a small population size. Persons with disabilities make up approximately 6.6% of the City’s population. The small population may be a contributing factor in the higher percentage of persons reporting disabilities. Housing that accommodates persons with disabilities is more likely to be located near transit and activity centers, as reflected Figure 7,. More geographically isolated areas or areas with steep topography, like the City’s northern neighborhoods are less suitable for persons with disabilities who may have impaired mobility and difficulty accessing goods and services. The County AI found that across Orange County, concentrations of persons with particular types of disabilities vary widely.

In Aliso Viejo, Irvine, Laguna Niguel, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, Santa Ana, Tustin, and Lake Forest, concentrations of persons with various types of disabilities are generally lower than they are countywide. As shown in Figure 8, communities with higher concentration s of persons with disabilities are somewhat more likely to be located in the more racially and ethnically diverse northern portion of the County than they are in the southern porti on of the County. Persons with dis abilities account for 8.5% of the Countywide population, which is sli ghtly higher percentage than the City. Based on this analysis, the City finds that there are not significant patterns of segregation im pacting persons with dis abilities living in Lake Forest.

Lake Forest is also home to a number of female-headed households located throughout the community with limited discernible patterns of segregat ion, as illustrated on Figure 9. Two census tracts located within the Rancho de los Alisos Planned Community have the highest concentrations of female-headed households in the City, but the ratio is still low. There are no know n historic patterns of segr egation by familial status, including by household gender, which the City finds as contributing factors to continued segregation in Lake Fforest. Figure 9 indicates that female-headed households are located in a variety of census tracts with different incomes, access to opportunities, and resource levels. Female-headed households make up approximately 13.3% of households in the City of Lake Forest, as compared to 13.9% of the total households for the County. As shown in Figure 10, communities in Orange County with higher concentrations of female- headed households are somewhat more likely to be loca ted in the more racially and ethnically diverse northern portion of the County than they are in the southern portion of the County.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-151 The community’s older residents, persons 65 years of age or older, tend to be concentrated in a few census tracts in the City’s older neighborhoods, specifically along El Toro and Muirlands Boulevard, as shown in Figure 11. These areas generally correspond with the City’s older homes, which are some of the more affordable homes in the community and attractive to seni or residents. The City c ontinues to find that these options are an important part of the City’s housing stock and expects that senior residents will continue to choose to live in these areas as a result of the affo rdable home options available to them. The City’s newer neighborhoods tend to have lower concentrations of senior s; this is due in part to the product type offered (generally larger single-family detached homes) wh ich may not be the preferred housing type of older residents. In Lake Forest, persons 65 years or older comp rise of 13.1% of the City’s population. In comparison, persons 65 years or older comprise of 13.9% of Orange County’s population. As shown in Figure 12, communities in Orange County with higher concentrations of persons 65 years of age or older tend to be concentrated in coastal areas with higher median ho me prices, as well as the northeastern portion of the County. Central Orange County communities, such as Santa Ana and Tustin have relatively youthful populations, where there are lower median home prices, as well as a larger stock of single-family homes.

Patterns of segregated economic wealth, as indicated by median household income, are not present in Lake Forest, as illustrated on Figure 13. Low and high median household incomes are dispersed throughout the community, with lower and higher levels coexisting in no distinguishable pattern. The two block groups with lower median household incomes are found in two differ ent parts of the City; one of the lower household median income block groups is located near the intersection of Muirlands Boulevard and El Toro Road, where there are several mobile home/manufactured home communi ties, and the other is located just south of the Civic Center, in a block group with a relatively low population. As shown in Figure 14, communities in Orange County with lower median incomes are somewhat more likely to be located in the more racially and ethnically diverse northern and central portion of the County than they are in the southern and coastal portion of the County. In the southern portion of the County, areas of lower median income are located along the I-5 freeway, where there is a greater concentration of multi-family and more affordable housing. In comparison, the median income in Lake Forest ($121,747) is higher than the Countywide average of $98,007.

Findings
The City has considered trends and patterns related to integration and segregation based on racial and ethnic factors, disability, female-headed households, seniors, and median household income. In all cases, there are no distinguishable patterns of segregation, and the community appears to be well-integrated. Moreover, when considering patterns of integration and segregation compared to its neighbors (including the cities of Irvine, Mission Viejo, Laguna Woods, Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Hills, and Aliso Viejo – all of which are shown on the above figures), Lake Forest’s patterns appear to be consistent with the region. As part of the City’s regular participation in the County AI, the City will continue to consider these patterns to determine any changes from current conditions.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-152 Racially or Ethnically Concentrated Areas of Poverty (R/ECAP) To assist communities in identifying racially/ethnically concentrated areas of poverty (R/ECAPs), HUD has developed a census tract-based definition of R/ECAPs. The definition involves a racial/ethnic concentration threshold and a poverty test. The racial/ethnic concent ration threshold is straightforward: R/ECAPs must have a non-white population of 50 percent or more. Regarding the poverty threshold, Wilson (1980) defines neighborhoods of extreme poverty as census tracts with 40 percent or more of individuals living at or below the poverty line. Because overall poverty levels are s ubstantially lower in many parts of the country, HUD supplements this with an alternate criterion. Thus, a neighborhood can be a R/ECAPs if it has a poverty rate that exceeds 40% or is three or more times the aver age tract poverty rate for the metropolitan/micropolitan area, whichever threshold is lower.

The 2020 AI performed an analysis of R/ECAPs within Orange County. There are four R/ECAPs in Orange County, two of which are found in Santa Ana, two of which are found in Irvine. The two R/ECAPs found in Santa Ana are predominantly Hispanic and found clos e to the Santa Ana Freeway. The northernmost R/ECAP is located along North Spurgeon Street, wh ile the more southern R/ECAP is found along South Standard Avenue. The R/ECAPs found in Irvine are adjac ent to each other and located on the campus of University of California, Irvine, ma king it likely that they qualify as R/ ECAPs due to the high proportions of students. These R/ECAPs have a much more diverse group of residents, with some White, Asian or Pacific Islander, Hispanic and Black residents. However, no R/ECAPs were identified in the City of Lake Forest.

Further analysis using the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Developments RECAP GIS mapping tool confirms that all census tracts within Lake Forest have a RECAP value of 0, indicating that the census tracts within Lake Forest do not meet the defined parameters for a racially or ethnically concentrated area of poverty as defined by HUD.

Comparing Figure 5 to Figure 13, it appears that, generally, areas ranking in the high (70-85) and highest diversity index categories appear to have the lowest median household incomes in the City. Conversely, areas ranking in the low (40-55) and moderate (55-70) diversity index categories appear to have the highest median household incomes in the City. It appears that moderately segregated economic wealth exists within the City based on diversity, as one of the areas of the City with the lowest median household incomes (less than $30,000 annually) contains a white majority racial concentration while the other contains a Hispanic majority. Figure 15 provides an ethnicity analysis identifying the majority racial concentrations in the City. As shown, the majority of the City contains a white majority racial concentration, with a slim (<10%) to sizeable (10 – 50%) Hispanic majority racial concentration gene rally located along El Toro Road adjacent to I-5.

Overall, it appears that the City does not exhibit si gnificant patterns or trends of greater racial/ethnic concentrations correlating to increased poverty. Figure 16 provides an ethnicity analysis identifying racial concentrations in the County. Countywide, the northern portion of the County generally has areas with high diversity index scores and lower median incomes, wh ile the southern and coastal portions of the County of lower diversity index scores and higher median incomes.

As discussed in the Findings section, the Housing Plan includes programs to encourage increased diversity and housing opportunities in the City and to provide education related to fair housing rights.

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MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

Map date: September 13, 2021.

REVISED FIGURE
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Figure 6: Diversity Index by Census Block Group - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Diversity Index (2018)
Higher Diversity
70-85
55-70
40-55
Lower Diversity
No Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"RaceDemographics_BlockGrp_2018."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
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Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources,
California Department of Housing and Community
Development, "DisabilityPopulation_Tract_2015_19."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 7: Proportion of Population with Disabilities by Census Tract City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Percent of Population with a Disability
< 10%
10 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 - 40%
> 40%
LEGEND

REVISED FIGURE
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Figure 8: Proportion of Population with Disabilities by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percent of Population with a Disability
< 10%
10 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 - 40%
> 40%
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"DisabilityPopulation_Tract_2015_19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated
Unincorporated
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Percent of Children in
Female-Headed Household in
which No Spouse or Partner
Present is Present
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%
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Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"FamilyStatus_Tract_2015_19."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 9: Female-Headed Households by Proportion of Children Present by Census Tract

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Figure 10: Female-Headed Households by Proportion of Children Present - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percent of Children in Female-Headed
Household in which No Spouse or Partner
Present is Present
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%
No Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"FamilyStatus_Tract_2015_19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 11: Proportion of Senior Residents by Census Tract

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Figure 12: Proportion of Senior Residents by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percent of Population At or Over Age 65
< 10%
10 - 15%
15 - 20%
20 - 25%
25 - 30%
>30%
No Data
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau's American
Community Survey (ACS) 2015-2019 5-year estimates,
Table(s) B01001.

Map date: December 7, 2021.

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TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Median Income by Block Group
< $30,000
$30,000 - $55,000
$55,000 - $87,100*
$87,100 - $125,000
> $125,000
No Value
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Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"MedianIncome_BlockGrp_2015_19."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 13: Median Household Income by Block Group
* 87,100 is the HCD State Median Income

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Figure 14: Median Household Income by Block Group - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Median Income by Block Group
< $30,000
$30,000 - $55,000
$55,000 - $87,100*
$87,100 - $125,000
> $125,000
No Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"MedianIncome_BlockGrp_2015_19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Asian Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
Hispanic Majority by
Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
White Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
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Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"PredominantPop_AsianMajority,"
"PredominantPop_HispanicMajority,"
"PredominantPop_WhiteMajority."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 15: Ethnicity Analysis - Racial Concentrations

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Figure 16: Ethnicity Analysis - Racial Concentrations - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
African American Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
Asian Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
Hispanic Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
White Majority by Dominance
Slim (gap < 10%)
Sizeable (gap 10 - 50%)
Predominant (gap > 50%)
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"MedianIncome_BlockGrp_2015_19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-177 Racially/Concentrated Areas of Affluence
According to the Housing and Community Development AFFH Guidance Memo, “segregation is a continuum, with polarity between race, poverty, and affluence, which can be a direct product of the same policies and practices”. Therefore, both sides of the continuum must be examined. While HCD does not have a standard definition for RCAAs, looking at the percentage of the White population and median household income can provide a good indicator for areas of affluence.

In addition to RECAPs utilized by HUD, scholars at the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs created the Racially Concentrated Areas of Affl uence (RCAAs) metric to more fully tell the story of segregation in the United States10. RCAAs are defined as census tracts where 1) 80 percent or more of the population is white, and 2) the median household income is $125,000 or greater (slightly more than double the national the median household income in 2016). Table 69 looks at the median household incomes of white residents in Lake Forest as well as the County as a whole. While the majority of the City contains a white majority racial concentration, there are no census tracts with a median household income of $125,000 or more. As such, there are no RCAAs located in Lake Forest.

TABLE 69: REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX (ROI) DATA POINTS
Median Household
Income
Lake Forest Orange County
White households $105,661 $89,504
All households $104,449 $85,398
% of white population 71.8% 65.2%
Source: American Communities Survey 2014-2018

10 Goetz, E. G., Damiano, A., & Williams, R. A. 2019. Racially Concentrated Areas of Affluence: A Preliminary Investigation. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, Volume 21(1) [pages 99–124]. Available at: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol21num1/ch4.pdf Item: 11
500

City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-178 Disparities in Access to Opportunity
HUD developed the opportunity indicators to help in form communities about disparities in access to opportunity, the scores are based on nationally available data sources and assess resident’s access to key opportunity assets in the City. Table 70 provides the index scores (ranging from zero to 100) for the following opportunity indicator indices:
• Low Poverty Index: The low poverty index captur es poverty in a given neighborhood. The poverty rate is determined at the census tract level. The higher the score, the less exposure to poverty in a neighborhood.
• School Proficiency Index: The school proficienc y index uses school-level data on the performance of 4th grade students on state exams to descr ibe which neighborhoods have high-performing elementary schools nearby and which are near lower performing elementary schools. The higher the score, the higher the school system quality is in a neighborhood. • Labor Market Engagement Index: The labor ma rket engagement index provides a summary description of the relative intensity of labor market engagement and human capital in a neighborhood.

This is based on the level of employment, labor force participation, and educational attainment in a census tract. The higher the score, the higher the labor force participation and human capital in a neighborhood.
• Transit Trips Index: This index is based on estimates of transit trips taken by a family that meets the following description: a three-person single-parent family with income at 50% of the median income for renters for the region (i.e. the Co re-Based Statistical Area (CBSA)). The higher the transit trips index, the more likely residents in that neighborhood utilize public transit. • Low Transportation Cost Index: This index is based on estimates of transportation costs for a family that meets the following description: a three-person single-parent family with income at 50% of the median income for renter s for the region/CBSA. The higher the index, the lower the cost of transportation in that neighborhood.
• Jobs Proximity Index: The jobs proximity index quantif ies the accessibility of a given residential neighborhood as a function of its distance to all job locations within a region/CBSA, with larger employment centers weighted more heavily. The higher the index value, the better the access to employment opportunities for residents in a neighborhood. • Environmental Health Index: The environmental health index summarizes potential exposure to harmful toxins at a neighborhood level. The higher the index value, the less exposure to toxins harmful to human health. Therefore, the higher the value, the better the environmental quality of a neighborhood, where a neighborhood is a census block group.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-179 Opportunity indicators were obtained for Lake Forest from the HUD Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing GIS tool. Table 70 identifies the opportunity indicators by race and ethnicity for the total population of Lake Forest.

TABLE 70: OPPORTUNITY INDICATORS BY RACE.ETHNICITY - LAKE FOREST Race/ Ethnicity
Low Poverty
Index
School
Proficiency
Index
Labor Market
Index
Transit Index
Low
Transportation
Cost Index
Jobs Proximity
Index
Environmental
Health Index
White 76.36 72.36 81.64 32.24 69.42 71.33 42.33
Black 73.27 69.65 81.67 32.34 70.96 72.67 42.25
Hispanic 67.04 66.07 76.36 31.35 73.18 70.57 39.94
Asian or
Pacific
Islander

73.63 72.58 82.39 32.16 69.56 73.34 42.56
Native
American

75.43 68.97 79.14 32.03 71.55 69.17 41.59
Total
Average

76.36 72.36 81.64 32.24 69.42 71.33 42.33

Source: HUD Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing GIS Explorer, https://egis.hud.gov/affht/ As shown in Table 70, all residents of Lake Forest appear to have relatively high access to opportunity (values over 60), except for transit access and environmental health. Additionally, all residents appear to have fairly similar values. Specifically, all residents had values below 33 in the transit index, which could indicate residents, regardless of race/ethnicity, are not likely to take public transit. Additionally, all residents had values near 40 in the environmental health index, indicating that this area should receive special attention to ensure that the opportunity levels do not dip lower into the lowest quadrant (25 or lower). As such, access to opportunity does not appear to be significantly influenced by race or ethnicity.

The County AI found generally, access to opportunity is highest for non-Hispanic White and Asian/Pacific Islander residents in Orange County. By contrast, access to opportunity is generally lower for Black residents than for non-Hispanic White and Asian residents and access is lowest for Hispanic residents.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-180 Regional Opportunity Index
The UC Davis Center for Regional Change and Rabobank, N.A. partnered to develop the Regional Opportunity Index (ROI) intended to help understand social and eco nomic opportunity in California’s communities. The goal of the ROI is to help target resources and policies toward people and places with the greatest need to foster thriving communities. The ROI integrates a variety of data topics, including education, economic development, housing, mobility, health/environ ment, and civic life, and “maps” areas of potential investment by identifying specific areas of urgent need and opportunity. The ROI relies on many of the same data sources analyzed in the Housing Element, incl uding the American Community Survey (ACS), the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Or igin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data, the California Department of Education, the California Department of Public Health, among others (data points are from 2014).

There are two ROI “maps”; the “people” RO I illustrates the relative measure of the people’s assets in education, the economy, housing, mobility/transportation, health/environment, and civic life) while the “place” ROI illustrates the relative measure of a place’s assets in those same categories. The tool analyzes different specific indicators for each of the 6 data topics, as summarized in Table 71 below.

TABLE 71: REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX (ROI) DATA POINTS
People-Based Data Points Place-Based Data Points
Education • Elementary School
Truancy
• English Proficiency
• Math Proficiency
• College Educated Adults
• High School Discipline rate
• Teacher Experience
• UC/CSU Eligible
• High School Graduation Rate
Economic Development • Minimum Basic Income
• Employment Rate
• Bank Accessibility
• Job Quality
• Job Growth
• Job Availability
Housing • Housing Cost Burden
• Homeownership
• Housing Affordability
• Housing Adequacy
Mobility • Internet Access
• Commute Time
• Vehicle Availability
• N/A
Health/Environment • Years of Life Lost
• Births to Teens
• Infant Health
• Air Quality
• Health Care Availability
• Access to Supermarket
• Prenatal Care
Civic Life • English Speakers
• Voting Rates
• Neighborhood Stability
• US Citizenship

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-181 As shown in Figure 17 and Figure 19, Lake Forest has a range of opportunity levels throughout the community with slight differences between the relative measur e of people-based assets versus placed-based assets, with people-based opportunities scoring slightly better than place-based opportunities. All census tracts are shown to have average (yellow) to high (green) levels of people-based opportunity, which indicates positive access to opportunities across the six data topics. However, in terms of place-based assets, there are two census tracts which indicates a lower level of opportunity (shown in red). The higher and lower levels of opportunity for these two census tracts, by indicator, are summarized in Table 72.

TABLE 72: PLACE-BASED REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX (ROI) LOW OPPORTUNITY CENSUS TRACTS Census Tract (Place) Opportunity
Level
Average or Higher
Opportunities
Lower Opportunities
06059052423 Lowest
Opportunity
• Economy
• Education
• Health/Environment
• Civic Life
• Housing
06059052428 Lowest
Opportunity
• Education
• Civic Life
• Housing
• Health/Environment
• Economy

For census tract 06059052423, which is south of SR-241 and along El Toro Road, there appears to be limited opportunities related to civic life, health/environment, and housing. Upon a deeper dive into the data, the most pressing health/environment issue is limited access to a supermarket, which can help inform the City’s land use planning decisions. In regards to civic life, the concerns relate to neighborhood stability. This census tract also has low levels of housing affordability. For census tract 06059052428, located along SR-241 and El Toro Road, there appears to be limited opportunities related to health/environment and the economy. The most pressing health/environment issue is limited access to a supermarket and health care. In regard to the economy, the concerns are bank accessibility and job availability. This census tract is predominately residential and surrounded by residential uses, which explains the indicators regarding access to goods and services.

In Orange County, areas with lower people-based and place-based opportunities are concentrated in the central and northern portion of the County, including the cities of Santa Ana and Garden Grove, as illustrated in Figure 18 and Figure 20. For the lowest people-based opportunity census tracts in the County, there appears to be limited opportunities related to housing. For the lowest place-based opportunity census tracts in the County, there are a variety of limited opportunities depending on the location related to civic life, health/environment, housing, economy, and education.

In order to better understand access to opportunities for protected classes (persons with disabilities, race, familial status), this section compar es potential patterns of isolation and segregation presented in the prior section with the Regional Opportunity Index (people and place) discussed here.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-182 As shown in Figure 7 and previous ly discussed, persons with disab ilities are located throughout the community. The census tracts with the most significant percentage of its population reporting a disability are located in an area of moderate to high levels of people -based opportunities and high levels of place-based opportunities. There does not seem to be a correlation between where persons with disabilities are located and lower levels of opportunity.

As shown in Figure 9 and previously discussed, fe male-headed households are prevalent throughout the community and generally represent 20% of households in all census tracts. The census tract with the highest number of female-headed households is located in an area where access to people-based opportunities is moderate and access to place-based opportunities is hi gh. Given that there is no discernable pattern of segregation associated with female-headed households, there does not seem to be a relationship between where female-headed households are more likely to be located and specific resource levels.

As shown in Figure 11 and previously discussed, there are no discernible patterns of isolation or segregation based on age. The census tracts with the highest leve ls of senior residents are located along the City’s southern boundary, which includes the oldest areas of the City. These census tracts are identified as having moderate to high people-based opportunity levels and the highest place-based opportunity levels. In general, the other census tracts showing higher-than-average levels of senior residents also have moderate or better people- and place-based opportunities.

Concentrations of the City’s Asian, Hispanic and nonwhite populations are shown in Figure 15. In addition to showing patterns of racial concentration, this Figure, like the others presented here, also identifies candidate housing sites in relation to patterns of racial concentration and illustrate that access to people- and place- based opportunities is most likely to be correlated with patterns of racial concentration versus the other classes discussed earlier in this section. The lowest levels of access to people-based opportunity are consistent with those census tracts with the highest concentration of Hispanic residents. However, while the vast majority of Lake Forest exhibits moderate or better levels of access to place-based opportunity, the two census tracts with lower-levels of opportunity (located in the City’s northern area) are predominantly White.

So, while this pattern warrants further study and coul d necessitate focused investment, the pattern is not consistent and areas with high concentrations of Hi spanic and nonwhite residents still have access to a variety of resources, consistent with the patterns seen citywide.

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Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 17: People-Based Opportunities by Census Tract

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Figure 18: People-Based Opportunities by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Regional Opportunity
Highest Opportunity
Lowest Opportunity
No Data
Sources: Sources: UC Davis Center for Regional Change/
Placeworks 2021 (Original data sourced from:
https://interact.regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/roi/data.html).

Map date: December 13, 2021.

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Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 19: Place-Based Opportunities by Census Tract

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Figure 20: Place-Based Opportunities by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Regional Opportunity
Highest Opportunity
Lowest Opportunity
No Data
Sources: Sources: UC Davis Center for Regional Change/
Placeworks 2021 (Original data sourced from:
https://interact.regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/roi/data.html).

Map date: December 13, 2021.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-191 2021 TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Map
Additionally, the Department of Housing and Community Development together with the California Tax Credit Allocation Committee established the California Fair Ho using Task Force to provide research, evidence- based policy recommendations, and other strategic re commendations to HCD and other related state agencies/departments to further the fair housing goal s (as defined by HCD). The Task force developed the 2021 TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Maps to understand how public and private resources are spatially distributed. The Task force defines opportunities as pathways to better lives, including health, education, and employment. Overall, opportunity maps are intended to display which areas, according to research, offer low- income children and adults the best chance at econo mic advancement, high educational attainment, and good physical and mental health.

According to the Task Force’s methodology, the tool allocates the 20 percent of the tracts in each region with the highest relative index scores to the “Highest Resource” designation and the next 20 percent to the “High Resource” designation. Each region then ends up with 40 percent of its total tracts as “Highest” or “High” resource. These two categories are intended to help State decision-makers identify tracts within each region that the research suggests low-income families are most likely to thrive, and where they typically do not have the option to live—but might, if given the choice. T he remaining tracts are then evenly divided into “Low Resources” and “Moderate Resource”. Table 70 identifies the resource levels by census tract and the corresponding scores for economic, education, and environmental indicator scores. As shown in Table 73 and Figure 21, approximately half of Lake Forest is classified as “High” or “Highest” resource, a quarter is classified as “Moderate” resource, and the remaining quarter (four census tracts) is classified as “ModerateLow” resource.

TABLE 73: LAKE FOREST OPPORTUNITY RESOURCE LEVELS BY CENSUS TRACTS Census Tract
(Place)
Resource Level Economic Score Education Score Environmental Score
052410* Low 18 36 1
052411 Low 12 34 9
032014 Low 9 34 14
052408* Low 68 53 1
052415 Moderate 68 53 58
052416 Moderate 56 49 51
032027* Moderate 36 42 65
052422* High 80 63 51
052425 High 51 59 70
052424 Moderate 35 59 59
032029 Moderate 49 44 65
052423 Moderate 55 54 61
032047* High 49 68 80
052426* High 67 87 21
052428* Highest 82 74 64
Source: 2021 TCAC/HCD Opportunity Map, https://belonging.berkeley.edu/2021-tcac-opportunity-map. * Census tracts labels followed by an asterisk (*) denote tracts that include area outside the Lake Forest city boundary.

The four “low” resource level census tracts are all located adjacent to, or near the I-5 freeway. Table 74 shows Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-192 a more detailed look of the four low resource census tracts TABLE 74: LOW RESOURCE CENSUS TRACT ANALYSIS
Census Tract (Place) Census Tract
052410
Census Tract
052411
Census Tract
032014
Census Tract
052408
Race/Ethnicity
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic

50%
2%
22%
22%

37%
2%
17%
39%

35%
2%
11%
46%

67%
0%
17%
14%
% of Population in Poverty 11.4% 14.9% 18.9% 1.8%
% of Population that is Disabled 8.3% 10.6% 15.7% 5.4%
% of Households in Renter-
Occupied Housing Units

32.9% 20.3% 31.6% 13.5%
Overcrowding 3.66% 9.53% 17.15% 2.11%
Overpayment
Renters
Owners

54.2%

42.7%

56.0%

31.4%

73.4%

18.0%

35.6%

11.6%
Source: California Department of Housing and Community Development, AFFH Data and Mapping Resources.

The County AI found that Countywide, there are disparities across racial/ethnic groups in access to educational opportunities as measured by the in dex. Across all tracts in Orange County, non-Hispanic White residents exhibit the highest exposure to educational opportunities (index score of 59) and non-Hispanic Asian residents second highest (index score of 53). Hispanic residents have the lowest access to these opportunities (31), with non-Hispanic Black residents in between (46). Countywide, there are disparities across racial/ethnic groups in access to environmental opportunities, measured as lower exposure to and effects from pollution. Jurisdictions with the highest environmental opportunity appear to have primarily large concentrations of non-Hispanic White and Asian/Pacific Islander residents. In Orange County there are significant disparities in access to economic opportunity, with Hispanic residents having the lowest access to economic opportunity of all racial and ethnic groups in Orange County. Economic Opportunity Index scores are generally lower in North Orange County than in South Orange County. Countywide TCAC/HCD Opportunity levels are shown in Figure 22.

The County AI found that Lake Forest, like other jurisdic tions in the County, have relatively large disparities by projected class groups and Hispanic residents have significantly lower access to economic opportunity that other racial/ethnic groups. Table 75 shows the opportunity index values for the City of Lake Forest.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-193 TABLE 75: CITYWIDE OPPORTUNITY INDEX VALUES
Population Economic
Score
Environmental
Score
Educational
Score
Low
Transportation
Cost Score
Transit
Score
Total Population
White, Non-Hispanic 52 55 61 32 3
Black, Non-Hispanic 49 55 61 34 3
Hispanic 40 44 53 36 3
Asian or Pacific Islander,
Non-Hispanic
52 54 60 32 3
Native American, Non-
Hispanic
46 54 59 34 3
Population below federal poverty line
White, Non-Hispanic 43 48 65 35 3
Black, Non-Hispanic 59 62 49 29 3
Hispanic 24 18 43 33 3
Asian or Pacific Islander,
Non-Hispanic
35 37 52 39 4
Native American, Non-
Hispanic
6 10 40 50 3
Source: Orange County Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice, May 2020.

Findings
Overall, it appears that residents in Lake Forest have varying levels of access to opportunities, and access to opportunity is not correlated to the location of special groups, like female-headed households, seniors, or persons with disabilities. While there is some minor correlation between access to opportunities and racial/ethnic composition in the southern areas of the City near El Toro/I-5, there are other areas of the City with lower levels of access to opportunity where the residents are predominately white. Access to opportunity appears to be consistent and equitable across the communitytotal population, however inequities exist in populations below the federal poverty line, with Hispan ic residents below the federal poverty line have less access to opportunities than other groups. Program 24, Neighborhood Improvement Task Force, has been added to address this Finding.

Discussion of Disproportionate Housing Needs
Across Orange County, many residents face high rates of housing problems, severe housing problems, and severe housing cost burden. The County AI found that 27.1% of households have a severe housing problem, which are lack of kitchen or plumbing, more than on e person per room, or cost burden greater than 50%.

Hispanic households are most likel y to have a severe housing problem (44.5% of households). In comparison, the County AI found that 19.9% of households in Lake Forest have a severe housing problem, with 42.4% of Hispanic households having a severe housing problem. Hispanic residents face severe housing problems at a higher than average in Lake Forest compared to the County. Overall, across the County, Black and Hispanic residents are more likely to face all of these housing problems, with varying rates across different jurisdictions. Housing problems occur more frequently in more populated areas of the County. The County AI found that while housing problems are generally evenly dispersed throughout the County, however, Lake Forest has higher percentages of households with housing problems in areas with higher numbers of Hispanic residents.

The analysis of disproportionate housing needs within Lake Forest evaluated existing housing need, needs of the future housing population, and units within the community at-risk of converting to market-rate (of which there are 8 11 units).

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-194 The four HUD-designated housing problems include when a 1) housing unit lacks complete kitchen facilities; 2) housing unit lacks complete plumbing facilities; 3) household is overcrowded; and 4) household is cost burdened. Households are considered to have a housing problem if they experience at least one of the above.

Table 76 summarizes the demographics of households with disproportionate housing needs in the City and region. As shown in Table 76, Lake Forest has a lower perc entage of residents experiencing housing problems compared to the region. For both the City and the region as a whole, non-White households are more likely to experience at least one of the housing problems than White households.

TABLE 76: DEMOGRAPHICS OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH DISPROPORTIONATE HOUSING NEEDS Housing Needs Lake Forest Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Region
Households
experiencing any of 4
housing problems
# with
problems
#
households
% with
problems
# with
problems
# of
households
% with
problems
Race/Ethnicity
White 6,225 18,234 34.14% 710,485 1,741,265 40.80%
Black 240 540 44.44% 186,785 332,330 56.20%
Hispanic 2,705 4,370 61.90% 924,105 1,458,220 63.37%
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1,305 3,865 33.76% 312,775 666,628 46.92%
Native American 15 19 78.95% 4,655 9,535 48.82%
Other 299 528 56.63% 44,255 90,895 48.69%
Total 10,780 27,555 39.12% 2,183,075 4,298,855 50.78%
Household Type and Size
Family households, <5
people
5,795 17,550 33.02% 1,029,920 2,301,365 44.75%
Family households, 5+
people
1,640 3,165 51.82% 434,995 628,630 69.20%
Non-family households 3,340 6,824 48.94% 718,155 1,368,880 52.46% Households
experiencing any of 4
severe housing
problems
# with
severe
problems
#
households
% with
severe
problems
# with
severe
problems
# of
households
% with
severe
problems
Race/Ethnicity
White 2,735 18,234 15.00% 387,770 1,741,265 22.27%
Black 140 540 25.93% 115,450 332,330 34.74%
Hispanic 1,855 4 370 42.45% 1,458,220 44.53%
Asian or Pacific
Islander
660 3,865 17.08% 189,350 666,628 28.40%
Native American 15 19 78.95% 2,645 9,535 27.74%
Other 174 528 32.95% 26,215 90,895 28.84%
Total 5,590 27,555 20.29% 1,370,770 4,298,855 31.89%
Source: HUD Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) Database, 2020.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-195 Future Growth Need
The City’s future growth need is based on the RHNA , which allocates production of 956 very-low and 543 low-income units to the City for the 2021-2029 pl anning period. Figure 2 shows that both existing and proposed affordable units are well dispersed thro ughout the community and do not present a geographic barrier to obtaining affordable housing. Appendix A of this Housing Element shows the City’s ability to meet its 2021-2029 RHNA need at all income levels. This demonstrates the City’s ability to accommodate the anticipated future affordable housing needs of the community.

Existing Need
As described earlier in this Background Report, the Ci ty has a history of working with affordable housing developers to help facilitate the development of housing for lower-income households. Lake Forest has 202 rent-restricted units, representing approximately 1% of the City’s housing stock. The City actively works with affordable housing developers to identify and evaluate potential sites and to expand opportunities for lower- income households throughout the City. Lake Forest continues to encourage development of 15% affordable housing in conjunction with development of market rate housing.

Cost Burden
A household is considered cost burdened if the household pays more than 30% of its total gross income for housing costs. For renters, housing co sts include rent paid by the tenant plus utilities. For home owners, housing costs include mortgage payment, taxes, insurance, and utilities. As discussed in the Background Report, as with most communities, the location of the home is one of the biggest factors with regard to price.

Error! Reference source not found. shows the sites designated to meet the RHNA allocation in relation to percent of renter households overburdened by housing costs, by census tract. Some sites (located within the El Toro Road and Light Industrial focus areas) are locate d in the census tracts with the highest levels of renter households overburdened by housing costs and some sites (located within the El Toro Road and Lake Forest Drive focus areas) are located in the census tracts with the highest levels of homeowner households overburdened by housing costs. These patterns appear to be generally consistent with the prior analysis regarding median household incomes and access to opportunity as they relate to regional patterns, as illustrated in Error! Reference source not found. . Error! Reference source not found. shows the sites proposed to meet Lake Forest’s RHNA in relation to percent of homeowner households overburdened by housing costs, by census tract. The intent of intr oducing new residential development in these areas (at locations currently developed with commercial uses) is to add new housing to desirable areas and provide a range of housing choices at different prices to cu rrent and future residents. The sites designated to accommodate the City’s RHNA are not currently developed with residential uses and are not expected to displace current residents. A regional comparison is provided in Error! Reference source not found..

Overcrowding
Typically, a housing unit is considered overcrowded if there is more than one person per room and severely overcrowded if there are more than 1.5 persons per room. As described in Table 20 in the Background Report, 2.1% of owner-occupied homes and 10.7% of renter-occupied homes are overcrowded, and a total of 4.8% of all households in Lake Forest are overcrowded. Figure 27 shows the concentration of overcrowded households in Lake Forest. One census tract, 032014 has 15.01-20% of households which are overcrowded.

As shown in Figure 33, the more racially/ethnically diverse northern Orange County has a significantly higher concentration of overcrowded households than the southern and coastal areas of the County.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-196 Substandard Housing
Typically, housing over 30 years of age is more likely to have rehabilitation needs that may include plumbing, roof repairs, electrical repairs, f oundation rehabilitation, or other significant improv ements. As discussed in Section 3 of the Background Report, the 2014-2018 ACS dat a indicates that over half of the housing in the City is less than 40 years old (in 2018); 57.6% of units were built in 1980 or later. Another 32.9% of housing units were between 1970 and 1979. Die to the relatively young age of the City’s housing stock, the overall housing conditions are good. The City’s housing stock remains relatively new with only 9.5% of dwelling units in Lake Forest having been constructed prior to 1970, and as such, structural deterioration and maintenance problems are rare. Code enforcement officers conducted a window survey of 600 homes in southwest Lake Forest (the oldest neighborhood most in need of attention) to assess the condition of housing stock in Lake Forest. Of the 600 homes, most issues noted included minor exterior issues such as deteriorated paint, dead or dying landscaping, broken windows, etc. One was considered to need major rehabilitation or replacement.

This equates to 0.1%. The City has introduced Prog ram 24, Neighborhood Improvement Task Force, to address the need of the City’s older neighborhoods. The City’s first Neighborhood Improvement Plan is being prepared for Southwest Lake Forest, and as describe d in the Program, the City has committed $70,500 to implementing improvements in the Southwest Lake Forest neighborhood from 2021-2023.

Additionally, the City’s Planning Division’s assessment is that, while there are a limited number of homes in need of significant repair scattered throughout various nei ghborhoods in the City, there are no areas of the City in which it appears that a preponderance of the ho mes need major repair. In general, areas of the City with older homes have a greater number in need of major repair. The City will continue to implement its residential Rehabilitation Loan Program (RLP) using CD BG funds (when available) to help qualified homeowners to rehabilitate substandard housing.

Findings
“Disproportionate housing needs” generally refers to a condition in which there are significant disparities in the proportion of members of a protected class experiencing a category of housing need when compared to the proportion of members of any other relevant groups, or the total population experiencing that category of housing need in the applicable geographic area. Based on input from the community and the County AI, the most disproportionate housing needs in Lake Forest includes rehabilitation of the existing housing stock and increased variety of housing types at affordable prices, including housing for lower income households and larger households. Additionally, as demonstrated in Table 74, Census Tract 032014 located in the southern portion of the City and adjacent to the I-5 Freeway has a comparatively high percentage of disproportionate housing needs, with 73.4% of renters overpaying and 17.15% of households which are overcrowded.

According the HCD’s AFFH Data Viewer, this Census Tract’s population is predominately Hispanic (46.4%), and has a slightly higher percentage of population with a disability (15.7%) compared to the City as a whole.

Program 24 of the Housing Plan, Neighborhood Improvem ent Task Force (NITF), targets this area of the City. Programs recommended by the NITF will be a key tool the City will use to address fair housing issues and affirmatively further fair housing.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-197 Displacement Risk
As previously discussed, there are 8 deed-restricted affordable units currently at-risk of converting to market- rate within the next 30 years. The vast majority of the City’s affordable housing stock was constructed in conjunction with the development of the City’s Opportunities Study areas, and these units have an expiration date well beyond the planning period. The City also has a number of units which are affordable to lower- income families but are not deed-restricted. As described earlier in this Background Report, the City plans to accommodate the vast majority of its 2021-2029 R HNA allocation on parcels designated for mixed-use development, with a focus on new development along the City’s major transportation corridors and near activity centers, which have good access to transportation facilities, amenities, and infrastructure. Moreover, given that the majority of new residential development will happen in areas envisioned to support mixed-use development, it is expected that residential uses will be developed alongside complementary commercial and civic uses, which will help facilitate bringing jobs and housing closer together. There are two underdeveloped residential sites identified as meeting a portion of the City’s moderate- and above-moderate income units; based on the net addition of units at these locations (which currently provide units affordable to moderate-income households), there is no a significant displacement risk associated with the City’s current affordable housing stock as a result of new development.

The Urban Displacement Project 11 identifies displacement risk thr oughout Orange County. The eastern, southern and coastal portions of the County are prim arily exclusive or at risk of becoming exclusive.

Approximately half of the census tracts in the City are considered “Stable/Advanced Exclusive,” a little less than half of the census tracts are considered “At Risk for Becoming Exclusive,” and one census tract is considered “Stable Moderate/Mixed Income.” Additionally , there are three census tracts in the City that according to the AFFH Data and Mapping Resources Map, are considered “Sensitive Communities” where residents may be particularly vulnerable to displacement in the event of increased redevelopment and shifts in housing costs, as illustrated in Figure 29. This includes census tracts 06059052411 and 06059032014 located adjacent to the I-5 freeway and census tract 06059052425, located in central Lake Forest between Lake Forest Drive and Trabuco Road. Census tract 06059032014 includes a large mobile home park that would be at risk for redevelopment. There are affordable housing opportunity sites located in all three census tracts, that would potentially displace existing residents due to redevelopment.

The City recognizes that even though it has identified sufficient land to accommodate its RHNA allocation at all income levels, there is still t he potential for economic displacement because of new development and investment. This “knock-on” effect can occur at any time, and it can be challenging for the City to predict market changes and development patterns which have the potential to impact rental rates and sales prices for housing available in the marketplace. To date, the City has no evidence that new development (affordable or market-rate) has resulted in ec onomic displacement. However, the City recognizes that economic displacement might occur in the future and has developed Program 23 to study and address potential issues related to displacement.

11 Urban Displacement Project, www.urbandisplacement.org/los-angeles/los-angeles-gentrifiction-and-displacement, December 2021.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-198 The City has also considered the risk of displacement specifically for protected classes, including persons with disabilities, female-headed households, senior s, and nonwhite residents (as discussed previously throughout this Background Report). The highest leve ls of persons with disabilities, female-headed, and lower income households are not located in areas where residential development is planned, and the risk of displacement to these groups (like to the City’s lower-income residents) is low. However, some future housing sites are located in areas with high levels of senior residents, and these groups appear to be more vulnerable to potential future displacement. As discussed above , Program 23 has been included in the City’s Housing Plan to study and address issues related to future displacement, and the City remains committed to maintaining its existing affordable housing stock, wh ich includes affordable units throughout the City, including in census tracts with high levels of senior residents.

To the extent that future development occurs in area s where there is existing housing, all housing must be replaced according to SB 330's replacement housing provisions (Government Code Section 66300). SB 330 also provides relocation payments to existing low-inco me tenants. The State has also adopted “just cause” eviction provisions and statewide rent control to protect tenants from displacement.

Findings
The City is committed to making diligent efforts to engage underrepresented and disadvantaged communities in studying displacement. Program 22 detail efforts the City will take to engage th ese communities during the planning period.

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MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Opportunity Areas
Highest Resource
High Resource
Moderate Resource (Rapidly
Changing)
Moderate Resource
Low Resource
High Segregation and Poverty
Missing or Insufficient Data
Í
0 1½
Miles
Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"TCAC_OpportunityAreas_Tract_2021."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 21: TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Map

REVISED FIGURE
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Figure 22: TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Map - Countywide
Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Opportunity Areas
Highest Resource
High Resource
Moderate Resource (Rapidly Changing)
Moderate Resource
Low Resource
High Segregation and Poverty
Missing or Insufficient Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"TCAC_OpportunityAreas_Tract_2021."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Percent of Renter Households
for whom Gross Rent (Contract
Rent Plus Tenant-Paid Utilities)
is 30% or More of Household
Income
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%Í
0 1½
Miles
Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"Overpayment_Tract_2015_19:" Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 23: Cost-Burdened Renter Households by Census Tract

REVISED FIGURE
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Figure 24: Cost-Burdened Renter Households by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percent of Renter Households for whom
Gross Rent (Contract Rent Plus Tenant-Paid
Utilities) is 30% or More of Household
Income
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%
No Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"Overpayment_Tract_2015-19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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RANCHO SANTA

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ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
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IRVINE
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City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Potential Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Percent of Owner Households
with Mortgages whose Monthly
Owner Costs are 30% or More
of Household Income
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%
No Value
Í
0 1½
Miles
Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"Overpayment_Tract_2015_19."
Map date: September 13, 2021.

Figure 25: Cost-Burdened Owner Households by Census Tract

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Figure 26: Cost-Burdened Owner Households by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percent of Owner Households with
Mortgages whose Monthly Owner Costs are
30% or More of Household Income
< 20%
20 - 40%
40 - 60%
60 - 80%
> 80%
No Data
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"Overpayment_Tract_2015-19."
Map date: December 13, 2021.

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LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated
Unincorporated
Affordable Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Percentage of Households that
are Overcrowded
< 8.2% (Statewide Average)

8.2 - 12%
12 - 15%
15 - 20%
> 20%Í
0 1½
Miles
Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"OvercrowdedHouseholds_Tract." Map date: April 14, 2022.

Figure V-27: Overcrowded Households by Census Tract

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O
C
E
A
N
Figure 28: Overcrowded Households by Census Tract - Countywide Legend
City of Lake Forest
County Boundary
Percentage of Households Severely
Overcrowded (none within Orange County)
0>- 5%
5% - 20%
20% - 35%
35% - 65%
65% -100%
Percentage of Households that are
Overcrowded
< 8.2% (Statewide Average)

8.2 - 12%
12 - 15%
15 - 20%
> 20%
Data sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California Department of Housing and Community Development,
"OvercrowdedHouseholds_Tract" and
"OvercrowdedHouseholds_Severe_Tract."
Map date: April 15, 2022.

Í
0 52½
Miles

NEW FIGURE
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-214 This page intentionally left blank.

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UV133
UV261
UV74
§¨¦
405
UV133
UV73
UV73
UV133
UV241
UV241
§¨¦
5 §¨¦
5 LAGUNA NIGUEL
TUSTIN

MISSION VIEJO

LAKE FOREST

LAGUNA BEACH

RANCHO SANTA

MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO
LAGUNA
WOODS

LAGUNA HILLS
IRVINE
Legend
City of Lake Forest
Incorporated Area
Unincorporated Area
Affordable Housing Sites
Underutilized Residential Site
(Density <30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density > 30 du/ac)
Underutilized Mixed-Use Site
(Density < 30 du/ac)
Sensitive Community
Vulnerable to Displacement
Í
0 1½
Miles
Sources: AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, California
Department of Housing and Community Development,
"SensitiveCommunities_UrbanDisplacementProject_Tract."
Map date: April 14, 2022.

Figure V-29: Sensitive Communities

NEW FIGURE
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-216 This page intentionally left blank.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-217 6C. Sites Inventory
AB 686 requires that jurisdictions identify sites throughout the community in a manner that is consistent with its duty to affirmatively further fair housing. The site identification includes not only an analysis of site capacity to accommodate the RHNA (provided in this section), but also considers whether the identified sites serve the purpose of replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns, transforming racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity. This section analyzes the role of all sites, regardless of income le vel, in assisting to affirmatively further fair housing.

However, special attention is paid to those sites i dentified to accommodate a portion of the City’s lower- income RHNA to ensure that the City is thinking care fully about how the development of new affordable housing options can promote patterns of equality and inclusiveness.

Table 77 presents the geographic dist ribution of RHNA sites by inco me category and socio-economic characteristics to relate the selected sites to indicators of fair housing issues. It is important to note that Table 77 and this sites inventory analysis does not include AD Us, which provide affordable housing options, are permitted throughout the City, and would not have a concentrated impact on any one census tract. As shown in Table 77, sites at all income levels, including t he lower income RHNA sites, are well distributed across census tracts in the City, increasing the potential for mixed income communities and a variety of housing types to meet Lake Forest’s housing needs. All sites ar e located in census tracts with Asian-Latino-White typologies and in moderate opportunity to highest opportu nity areas. Lower income RHNA sites are not concentrated in areas of the City that would be associated with significantly worse socio-economic outcomes, based on indicators of fair housing issues such as census tracts with the highest poverty rates, highest rates of renter-occupied housing, or highest rates of over crowding. The sites inventory works in tandem with programs in the Housing Plan to expand housing choice and access to opportunity by providing for a variety of housing types throughout Lake Forest, improving access to opportunity, and promoting agency and equity for those with disproportionate housing needs.

As shown in Table 77, the majority of sites suitable for all income levels (as a percentage of the total RHNA) are accommodated in Census Tracts 524.22 (25.7% of RHNA), 320.27 (20.1% of RHNA), and 524.10 (20.8% of RHNA). These three census tracts are located in key opportunity/investment focus areas in the northern, southeastern, and southwestern portions of the City, respectively; contain a mix of existing commercial, industrial, and residential uses; are located along th e City’s major transportation corridors and around its activity centers; and have been identified as key oppor tunity sites for mixed-use and multifamily residential development in the General Plan. Thes e areas represent the most in-demand location for new multifamily development in the City, and the relatively high densiti es allow for the greatest number of realistically developable multifamily units at all income levels. The sites provide opportunities for new housing for all income categories, not just lower-income categories , in an area near goods, services, jobs, and transit, thereby providing new housing choices in an area of improving opportunity. Further, because the candidate sites are identified to accommodate all income leve ls (lower, moderate, and above moderate), the sites provide an opportunity to facilitate mixed-income neighborhoods and encourage future integration in these areas.

It is important to note that, as described in Section 5, Housing Resources, the City has already achieved approximately half of its overall RHNA obligation with housing units constructed, under construction, or approved/entitled, the vast majority of which are single-family homes suitable for the above moderate-income category. Therefore, there are a number of census tracts in the sites inventory and Table 77 that have zero or a relatively low number of units identified for t he above moderate-income cat egory. The sites inventory analysis below focuses on meeting the remaining RHNA through new mixed-use and multifamily development, as well as new ADUs throughout the City.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-218 TABLE 77: DISTRIBUTION OF RHNA CAPACITY BY CENSUS TRACT Source: US Census, 2015-2019 ACS; California Department of Housing and Community Development, AFFH Data and Mapping Resources, https://affh-data-resources-cahcd.hub.arcgis.com, accessed November 22, 2022.

1. This table shows only sites within Appendix A and does not include ADUs, which are permitted throughout the City and would not have a concentrated impact on any one census tract.

Census
Tract
Existing
Households
RHNA Capacity1 AFFH Indicators
Segregation & Integration Access To
Opportunity
Displacement Risk
Lower Moderate Above
Moderate
Median
Household
Income
Poverty
Rate
Neighborhood
Segregation
Typologies
Diversity
Index
Disability
Rate
Resource
Designation
Overcrowding
Rate
Renter-
Occupied
Households
Renter
Overpayment
Rate
Homeowner
Overpayment
Rate
320.14 2,087 233 101 8 $57,352 18.9% Asian-Latino-White 77.2-81.3 15.7% Moderate 17.2% 31.6% 73.4% 31.3% 320.27 2,148 228 284 187 $96,500 5.3% Asian-Latino-White 76.1-81.5 4.6% High 6.0% 41.0% 61.1% 0.0% 524.10 2,253 474 201 0 $73,456 11.4% Asian-Latino-White 26.9-84.8 8.3% Moderate 3.7% 33.0% 54.2% 33.3% 524.11 1,350 218 94 0 $116,429 14.9% Asian-Latino-White 79.1-87.3 10.6% High 9.5% 20.3% 56.0% 5.3% 524.22 3,254 536 279 48 $127,640 3.9% Asian-Latino-White 54.6-75.9 3.8% Highest 1.9% 18.8% 44.7% 8.0% 524.23 2,249 68 29 0 $95,793 10.8% Asian-Latino-White 43.5-83.7 5.5% Highest 11.3% 60.7% 52.9% 8.2% 524.25 2,321 18 178 170 $90,240 8.7% Asian-Latino-White 59.1-78.9 8.0% Highest 0.8% 55.1% 52.4% 12.7% Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-219

SEGREGATION/INTEGRATION
As previously stated, the City find s that there are no known historic patterns of segregation by race and ethnicity, persons with disabilities, familial status, age or income. Nonetheless, as described throughout this Housing Element, the City is committed to supporting the development of housing to promote a balanced and integrated community. This is highlighted in Table 67 in the Housing Resources chapter, as the City has identified a surplus of sites and excess development capacity for housing for all income levels.

Figure 5 shows the sites identified to meet Lake Forest’s RHNA allocation in relation to racial/ethnic diversity.

As shown, proposed very-low and low-income RHNA sites underutilized mixed-use sites, including those very-low and low-income RHNA sites underutilized mixed-use allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac), are located throughout the community and are not concentrated in areas of low diversity. The vast majority of sites are located in areas of moderate to high diversity, and some sites (located in the southwest of the City along Lake Forest Drive in Census Tract 524.10) are in areas of low diversity. It is important to note that the diversity scores are measured by block group, which represent only a portion of the census tract. The sites with low diversity scores are located in a census bl ock group that is predominately located outside of the Lake Forest city boundary; therefore, the low diversity score is not necessa rily representative of conditions within that area of Lake Forest.

Figure 7 shows the sites designated to meet Lake Forest’s RHNA allocation in relation to the concentration of persons with disabilit ies. As shown, proposed sites, including those very-low and low-income sites (underutilized mixed-use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) , are located throughout the community and are not concentrated in areas with high proportions of per sons with disab ilities. The vast majority of sites are located in census tracts with 10% or less of the population indicating a disability, including some sites in areas with 10%-20% of residents indicating a disability. Additionally, the City’s mixed-use areas are located near transit corridors and activity centers, which also benefits persons with disabilities. However, these sites are not concentrated in areas with already high levels of disability. The locations of sites designated to meet the City’s very-low and low-income RHNA allocation are not expected to contribute to patterns of isolation or segregation for persons with disabilities.

Figure 9 shows the sites designated to meet Lake Fore st’s RHNA allocation in relation to female-headed households. As shown, proposed sites, including very-low and low- income sites (und erutilized mixed-use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) , are located throughout the community and are not concentrated in areas with high levels of female-headed households. No sites are located in the census tract with the highest proportion of female-headed households . The locations of sites designated to meet the City’s very-low and low income RHNA allocation are not expected to co ntribute to patterns of isolation or segregation for female-headed households.

Figure 11 shows the sites designated to meet Lake Forest ’s RHNA allocation in relation to concentration of senior residents. As shown, proposed sites, including very-low and low-income sites (underutilized mixed- use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) , are located throughout the community and are not concentrated in areas with high proportions of senior residents. The vast majority of sites are located in areas with low levels of senior residents (less than 20%) and some sites are located in areas where seniors make up 20-25% of the population. However, these areas (located generally along El Toro Road and Lake Forest Drive near I-5) are also good locations for seniors because they provide easy access to goods and services and are located near transportation facilities and activity centers. The locations of sites designated to meet the City’s very-low and low income RHNA allocation are not expected to contribute to patterns of isolation or segregation for senior households.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-220 Figure 13 shows the sites designated to meet Lake Forest’s RHNA allocation in relation to median household income. As shown, proposed sites, including very-low and low-income RHNA sites (underutilized mixed-use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) , are located throughout the community and are not concentrated in areas with low median household income. Some candidate sites are located in one of the City’s two lowest median household income census tracts, but as previously described, this census tract is home to many mobile/manufactured homes, which are not proposed for redevelopment. Development is expected to occur at other sites where nonresidential uses are currently (2021) located. The development of ADUs throughout the City also provides opportunit ies for economic integration. Further, residential development on candidate sites and ADUs located in cens us tracts with lower income households would provide needed affordable housing to these residents. The location of new development to meet the City’s very-low and low income RHNA are not expected to contribute to patterns of isolation or segregation for lower-income households.

R/ECAPS
The City does not have any racially or ethnically concentrated areas of poverty and the identification of sites to accommodate the City’s RHNA is not expected to alter this finding. Additionally, while the majority of the City contains a white majority racial concentration, there are no census tracts with a median household income of $125,000 or more. As such, there are no RCAAs located in Lake Forest.

ACCESS TO OPPORTUNITY
Approximately 5% of the City’s underutilized mixed-use sites are located within census tract 06059052423, which is considered an area with low place-based opportunities. The concerns in this area include neighborhood stability, access to supermarkets, and hou sing affordability. The introduction of new mixed- use development in this area will help to create more housing affordable to households at lower-income levels, introduce new residents to an area which can contribute to higher neighborhood stability, and expand opportunities for people to live and work in the same ar ea. Taken together, new mixed-use development in this area, which is focused on underutilized commercial sites, will help to diversify the land use pattern without displacing existing residents.

One of the high opportunity areas identified in t he analysis is the Foothill Ranch Towne Center, which originally represented a concentration of commercial land uses on 216 acres of land within the Foothill Ranch Planned Community. In the 1980’s, 30 acres of land was developed as an Auto Center and medical office uses. Several rezonings have been approved by the City that allowed for 219 multi-family residential to be constructed on land that had formerly been used for auto dealerships. In addition, 3,710 single family and multi-family units are included within the Planned Community, which offer opportunities for the development of ADU’s and increasing housing choices in the area.

DISPLACEMENT RISK
Figure 23Error! Reference source not found. shows the sites designated to meet the very-low and low- income RHNA allocation for Lake Forest sites (underutilized mixed-use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) in relation to percent of renter households overburdened by housing costs, by census tract. Some sites (located within the El Toro Road and Light Industrial focus areas) are located in the census tracts with the highest levels of renter households overburdened by housing costs and some sites (located within the El Toro Road and Lake Forest Drive focus areas) are located in the census tracts with the highest levels of homeowner households overburdened by housing costs. These patterns appear to be generally consistent with the prior analysis regarding median household inco mes and access to opportunity as they relate to regional patterns, as illustrated in Figure 24Error! Reference source not found.. Error! Reference source not found. Figure 25 shows the sites proposed to meet Lake Forest’s very-low and low-income RHNA allocation (underutilized mixed-use sites allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac) in relation to percent of homeowner households overburdened by housing costs, by census tract. The intent of introducing new residential development in these areas (at locations currently developed with commercial uses) is to add new housing to desirable areas and provide a range of housin g choices at different prices to current and future Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-221 residents. The sites designated to accommodate the City’s lower-income RHNA are not currently developed with residential uses and are not expected to displace current residents. A regional comparison is provided in Figure 26Error! Reference source not found..

SITE ANALYSIS FINDINGS
To accommodate the City’s RHNA allocation, five key focus areas of economic investment/opportunity have been identified consistent with the City’s compre hensive General Plan Update (adopted in 2020). These focus areas include: El Toro Road, Lake Forest Driv e, Light Industrial/Railroad, Civic Center, and Foothill Ranch Towne Center, all of which allow and incentiv ize mixed-use development at the densities needed to stimulate affordable housing development. These area s, located along transportation corridors and near activity centers, are designated for mixed- use development in the City’s General Plan. The City’s very-low and low RHNA needs are largelyThe sites identified to ac commodate the City’s RHNA at all income levels are largely accommodated in these locations . By locatingdesignating sites throughout the City, and at permitted densities which promote a variety of housing types to meet all income needs, the sites affirmatively further fair housing and provides for housing for all income types in moderate, and high, and highest resource areas. Specifically, the highest number of lower income sites (536 units or 30.2% of the lower income RHNA capacity) and the second highest number of moderate in come sites (279 units or 23.9% of the moderate income RHNA capacity) are located in an area of highest resource (Census Tract 524.22, which includes the Foothill Ranch Towne Center just north of State Route 241). The El Toro Road and Light Industrial/Rail Corridor focus areas (Census Tracts 524.11, 320.14, and 320.27 in the southeast corner of the City) are designated moderate and high resource areas and contain a combined 679 lower income units (38.3% of the lower income RHNA capacity), 479 moderate income units (41.1% of the moderate income RHNA capacity), and 195 above moderate income units (47.2% of the above moderate RHNA capacity). These sites provide an opportunity to facilitate mixed-income neighborhoods by providing lower income units in areas with higher resources and investment into areas of moderate resource, which would encourage future integration throughout the City.Specifically, housing sites designated Urban Industrial 25 are located in a high resource area and have the capacity for approximately 426 un its at moderate and above m oderate income levels., which do not represent extremely concentrated racial or ethnic populations, persons with disabilities, female household, senior households, or low-income households.

As shown in Table 66, most of the site capacity for extremely low, very low, and moderate units are located within site designated as Mixed-Use 43 (approximately 69 percent of the total site inventory). Approximately 731 of those proposed units, including an anticipated 336 ve ry low-income units are located in the Foothill Ranch Towne Center, which is a high opportunity ar ea. The Urban Industrial 43 land use designation is located in a Moderate Resource area and will accommodate approximately 339 extremely low, very low, and moderate units (sites 58-75).

Because sites are located throughout the City, some site s are located in areas of greater racial diversity and/or low-income household concentration, particularly in the southern portion of the City, in the areas around the I-5 Freeway (approximately 44 percent of t he total sites). These include sites 1-15, 34, 35, and 38-44, all of which are underutilized mixed-use sites that are permitted at densities that are suitable for all income levels. However, the City has included pr ograms in the Housing Plan to address neighborhood- specific issues in this areathese areas of the City, including Program 22: Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Program, Program 23: Economic Displacement Risk Analysis, and Program 24: Neighborhood Improvement Task Force, which will encourage lower-income sites to be located in areas with more resources and help to revitalize areas in which lower-income sites are located.

As discussed previously, the focus areas identifi ed in the Lake Forest General Plan accommodate the greatest number of sites at all income levels, pr imarily because these areas represent the greatest opportunity for new multifamily development in the City , and at densities that would allow for the greatest number of realistically developable multifamily units at all income levels. The identified housing sites would provide opportunities for new housing for all income categories, not just lower-income categories, in areas Item: 11
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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-222 near goods, services, jobs, and transit, thereby prov iding new housing choices in an area of improving opportunity. Further, because the cand idate sites are identified to accommodate all income levels (lower, moderate, and above moderate), the sites provide an opportunity to facilitate mixed-income neighborhoods and encourage future integration in these areas. Howeve r, it is important to note that future residential development is not anticipated to occur in only the five key areas identified in the General Plan and identified in Appendix A. Residential development is allowed thro ughout the community, in all census tracts, and the City supports the development of residential uses throughout Lake Forest. The focus areas have been identified as the location where new residential developm ent is most likely and desirable, given the access to jobs, goods, services, transit and community faciliti es. However, the City continues to encourage the production of new residential development throughout the City, not just in the focus areas. This is further supported through Program 8, which THowever, the City has included a program to encourages additional development of lower-income unitsADUs throughout the community, which would provide additional housing options for lower income residents and special-needs groups such as large, multi-generational households. through its accessory dwelling unit program (Program 8). In addition to land use and zoning-related programs in the Housing Plan that would reduce governmental constraints, provide expanded choice in housing types and locations, and create new housing opportunities in higher resource areas, the City has included programs in the Housing Plan specifically to address potential fair housing issues. These include Programs 21, 22, 23, and 24, which expand outreach, access, and enforcement of fair housing services; place-based strategies for neighborhood improvements; and tenant-protections, including displacement protections. Refer to Table 1 in the Housing Plan for a summary of the City’s implementation actions to further fair housing. For these reasons, the City finds that the sites proposed to accommodate its RHNA a llocation do not unduly burden existing areas of concentrated racial or ethnic homogeneity, poverty, or other characteristics. Moreover, the sites affirmatively further fair housing by helping to stimulate investment in ar eas where additional people- and place-based opportunity is desired, and where new residential and/or mixed-use development can help to improve some of the opportunity level characteristics discussed earlier in this section.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-223 6D. Analysis of Contributing Factors a nd Fair Housing Priorities and Goals The December 2015 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Ho using Rule Guidebook identifies examples of contributing factors by each fair housing issue ar ea: outreach, fair housing enforcement and outreach capacity, segregation and integration, racially and ethni cally concentrated areas of poverty, disparities in access to opportunity, dispar ities in access to o pportunities for pers ons with disabilities, disproportionate housing needs, including displacem ent risks, and sites inventory. Based on the analysis included in this Background Report, the City has identified the following potential contributing factors to fair housing issues in Lake Forest and, as described later in this section, has developed a series of specific programs to address these contributing factors.

The following are contributing factors that have been identified based on the fair housing issues presented in the County AI and the analysis in this document that affect fair housing choice in Lake Forest, specifically.

Table 78 lists the fair housing issues and contributing factors that exist in the City of Lake Forest and outlines the meaningful actions to be taken. The meaningful actions listed in the table relate to the actions identified in the Housing Plan.

TABLE 78: FAIR HOUSING ISSUES AND CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
Fair Housing Issue Contributing Factors Priority Meaningful Action Disparities in Access
to Opportunity

(New Opportunities)
• Lack of opportunity due to high housing
costs
• Land use and zoning laws
• Lack of public investment in specific
neighborhoods, including services or
amenities
• Community opposition
• Lack of local or regional cooperation

High • Program 1
• Program 5
• Program 13
• Program 14
• Program 15
• Program 20
• Program 21
• Program 22
• Program 23
Outreach • Lack of resources for fair housing
agencies and organizations
Medium • Program 11
• Program 16
• Program 21
• Program 22
Fair Housing
Enforcement and
Outreach Capacity
• Lack of local private fair housing outreach
and enforcement
• Lack of resources for fair housing
agencies and organizations
High • Program 11
• Program 16
• Program 21
• Program 22
Segregation and
Integration
• Community opposition
• Displacement of residents due to
economic pressures
• Lack of local or regional cooperation
• Land use and zoning laws
• Location and type of affordable housing
• Private discrimination
• Lack of public investment in specific
neighborhoods, including services or
amenities
Medium • Program 1
• Program 5
• Program 11
• Program 13
• Program 15
• Program 17
• Program 18
• Program 21
• Program 22
• Program 23
Lack of public
investment in
specific
neighborhoods,
including services
or
amenitiesDisparities
in Access to
• Access to transportation for persons with
disabilities
• Lack of affordable in-home or community-
based supportive services
Medium • Program 1
• Program 5
• Program 10
• Program 11

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-224 Opportunity for
Persons with
Disabilities
Disproportionate
Housing Needs,
Including
Displacement Risks
• Availability of affordable units in a range
of sizes
• Displacement of residents due to
economic pressures
• Lack of access to opportunity due to high
housing costs
• Land use and zoning laws
• Lack of public investment in specific
neighborhoods, including services or
amenities
High • Program 1
• Program 5
• Program 13
• Program 14
• Program 15
• Program 20
• Program 21
• Program 22
• Program 23
The City has identified the following primary contributing factors and prioritized their importance:

1. Land use and zoning laws. The City of Lake Forest comprehensively updated its General Plan in 2020 to allow for new mixed-use development at densities not previously allowed in Lake Forest. Before this update, the City’s land use direction did not allow for development at densities sufficiently high to promote the development of affordable housing. In the past, the City has relied on Development Agreements to procure the development of affording units as part of new residential developers. However, the new General Plan identifies areas for mixed-use develo pment at densities of up to 32 du/ac or 43 du/ac, depending on the location. By allowing for resident ial development where residential development was not previously allowed, the City formalized a plan to accommodate new growth at key locations near a transportation corridor and activity centers where jobs and housing can be located close together. The City is currently updating its Zoning Code to incl ude new standards for the City’s mixed-use areas and to provide clear direction to the development community . As part of this effort, the City continues to encourage the provision of 15% affordable units in conjunction with new market rate housing. Programs 1, 2, and 7 have been included to address this contributing factor.

2. Lack of public investment in specific nei ghborhoods, including services or amenities . The Fair Housing Analysis included in this section illustrates the need for focused attention in the southwest Lake Forest neighborhood, which is one of the City’s lower-income neighborhoods, most racially segregated, with the most limited access to opportunity. The southwest Lake Forest neighborhood is one of the oldest residential communities not just in Lake Forest, but in south Orange County. The homes in this area are more likely to be in need of repair and language barriers may make it more challenging for the City to educate residents on housing programs and their right to fair and safe housing opportunities. To address this contributing factor, the City has crea ted a Neighborhood Improvement Task Force ( Program 24), with the intent to identify concerns facing specific neighborhoods (beginning with southwest Lake Forest) and fund improvements to address concerns. The City has identified southwest Lake Forest as the first neighborhood to receive this special attention and has committed $70,500 in the 2021-2023 budget to implement the recommendations of the Neighborhood Improvement Study.

3. Community opposition. The County AI identified community opposition as a potential significant contributing factor to fair housing issues in Or ange County and Lake Forest. In Lake Forest, and many other communities, there is a lack of comm unity understanding around affordable housing and the important role it plays in helping meet the needs of a variety of community members, including young people, working professionals, seniors, persons with disabilities, single-parent households, low-income households, and other at-risk populations. Program 22, Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Outreach and Coordination Program , has been included in the City’s Housing Plan to address this contributing factor.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-225 Moving forward, the City remains committed to prov iding a diversity of housing options for all income levels, encouraging development throughout the comm unity to help overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based on protected characteristics. The vast majority of the City’s Housing Programs designed to address fair housing are required to be implemented on an ongoing basis, with annual progress reports and programs evaluations to ensure they are achieving the City’s objectives. The following list summarizes those programs identified in this Housing Element which affirmatively further fair housing and implement the County AI’s recommendations:
 Program 4, to replace affordable units
 Program 5, to facilitate affordable and special needs housing construction  Program 7, to accommodate specialized housing types and update the City's policies and procedures regarding mixed-use development, low barrier navigation centers, supportive housing, employee housing, and farmworker housing
 Program 8, to encourage the produc tion of accessory dwelling units  Program 9, to allow for homeless shelters
 Program 10, to allow for transitional and supportive housing  Program 13, to ensure that the City’s density bonus ordinance continues to be in compliance with state law
 Program 22, to continue utilizing a fair housing servic e provider to assist with addressing fair housing issues in Lake Forest and to educate the commu nity, especially Lake Forest’s underserved and underrepresented residents, and affirmatively further fair housing  Program 23, to study and address economic displacement risks

3. To the extent that these programs represent ongoi ng work efforts, these programs are evaluated for effectiveness in Section 2 of this Background Report. The City has undertaken a series of proactive amendments to its Zoning Ordinance to address new requirements related to density bonus law and accessory dwelling units, and the City will continue to partner with local and regional stakeholders to affirmatively further fair housing.

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City of Lake Forest GENERAL PLAN │ Adopted Housing Element Background Report │ Page BR-226 This page intentionally left blank.

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Appendix A: Site
Inventory
Adopted August 16, 2022
Minor Revisions
November 2022

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Please Start Here, Instructions in Cell A2,
Table in A3:B15 Form Fields
Site Inventory Forms must be submitted to
HCD for a housing element or amendment
adopted on or after January 1, 2021. The
following form is to be used for satisfying
this requirement. To submit the form,
complete the Excel spreadsheet and submit
to HCD at [email protected].

Please send the Excel workbook, not a
scanned or PDF copy of the tables.

General Information
Jurisidiction Name LAKE FOREST
Housing Element Cycle 6th
Contact Information
First Name Gayle
Last Name Ackerman
Title of Community Dev
e
Email [email protected]
Phone (949) 461-3463
Mailing Address
Street Address
100 Civic Center
Drive
City Lake Forest
Zip Code 92630
City of Lake Forest 2021 ‐2029 Public Draft Housing Element Appendix A ‐ Site Inventory Item: 11
552

Table A: Housing Element Sites Inventory, Table Starts in Cell A2 Jurisdiction Name Site
Address/Intersection
5 Digit ZIP
Code
Assessor Parcel
Number
Consolidated
Sites
General Plan
Designation (Current)
Zoning
Designation
(Current)
Minimum Density
Allowed (units/acre)
Max Density
Allowed (units/acre) Parcel Size (Acres) Existing
Use/Vacancy Infrastructure Publicly-Owned Site Status Identified in Last/Last Two Planning Cycle(s) Lower Income Capacity
Moderate
Income Capacity
Above Moderate
Income Capacity Total Capacity Optional
Information1
Optional
Information2
Optional
Information3
LAKE FOREST 23572 PROTHERO 92630 617 ‐064‐18 LOW‐MEDIUM DENSITY RER2 ‐ Multifamily Dwelli 7 15 0.630937691 Vacant YES ‐ Current NO ‐ Privately‐Owned Available 8 8 36 Low Resource LAKE FOREST 23139 LOS ALISOS BLVD 92630 613 ‐351‐05 MEDIUM DENSITY RESIDENR2 ‐ Multifamily Dwelli 15 25 33.9193663 4 Residential, 304 YES ‐ Current NO ‐ Privately‐Owned Available 187 187 374 37 Moderate Resource City of Lake Forest 2021‐2029 Public Draft Housing Element Appendix A ‐ Site Inventory Item: 11
553

Table B: Candidate Sites Identified to be Rezoned to Accommodate Shortfall Housing Need, Table Starts in Cell A2 Jurisdiction
Name Site Address/Intersection 5 Digit ZIP Code Assessor Parcel Number
Very Low-
Income Low-Income Moderate-
Income
Above
Moderate-
Income
Type of Shortfall Parcel Size
(Acres)
Current General Plan
Designation Current Zoning
Proposed
General Plan
(GP)
Designation
Proposed
Zoning
Minimum
Density
Allowed
Maximum
Density Allowed Total Capacity Vacant/
Nonvacant
Description
of Existing
Uses
Optional
Information1
Optional
Information2
Optional
Information3
LAKE FOREST23861 EL TORO RD 92630 617-053-09 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.263383665 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 27 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 1 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST23862 BRIDGER RD 92630 617-053-10 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.300886792 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 27 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 2 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST23861 EL TORO RD 92630 617-053-02 8450 Shortfall of Sites 0.852017981 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 18 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 3 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST23782 BRIDGER RD 92630 617-053-03 31 16 20 0 Shortfall of Sites 3.258929751 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 68 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 4 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST23831 EL TORO RD 92630 617-053-11 81 42 53 0 Shortfall of Sites 8.389165381 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 176 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 5 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FORESTMERCURY RD & ROCKFIELD BLVD 92630 617-474-16 20 11 13 0 Shortfall of Sites 2.10018798 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 44 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 6 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST23764 MERCURY RD 92630 617-474-10 40 21 26 0 Shortfall of Sites 4.160877054 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 87 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 7 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST23591 ROCKFIELD BLVD 92630 617-431-06 8450 Shortfall of Sites 0.786263309 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 17 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 8 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST23581 ROCKFIELD BLVD 92630 617-431-07 9560 Shortfall of Sites 0.963305525 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 20 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 9 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22821 ASPAN ST 92630 617-433-03 14 7 9 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.452132908 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 30 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 10 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22762 ASPAN ST 92630 617-433-04 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.181806178 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 25 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 11 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22771 CENTRE DR 92630 617-431-02 34 18 22 0 Shortfall of Sites 3.465348263 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 73 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 12 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FORESTASPAN ST & CENTRE DR 92630 617-433-08 22 12 14 0 Shortfall of Sites 2.283045845 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 48 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 13 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22681 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 617-493-01 77 40 50 0 Shortfall of Sites 7.995414481 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 168 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 14 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22471 ASPAN ST 92630 617-491-04 13 7 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.319692179 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 28 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 15 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST20780 LAKE FOREST DR C 92630 613-621-16 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.8517301 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 14 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 16 Moderate ResouCivic Center LAKE FOREST20768 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-621-17 9560 Shortfall of Sites 1.275748018 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 20 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 17 Moderate ResouCivic Center LAKE FOREST20761 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-622-09 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.603887531 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 26 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 18 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20722 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-621-12 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.742644428 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 12 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 19 Moderate ResouCivic Center LAKE FOREST20702 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-621-10 16 8 10 0 Shortfall of Sites 2.153975934 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 34 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 20 Moderate ResouCivic Center LAKE FOREST20652 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-621-11 8450 Shortfall of Sites 1.116763 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 18 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 21 Moderate ResouCivic Center LAKE FOREST20651 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-623-02 5230 Shortfall of Sites 0.640688958 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 10 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 22 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20671 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 613-623-01 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.656835568 MIXED-USE 32 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 32MU-32 0 32 27 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 23 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST26672 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-34 37 19 24 0 Shortfall of Sites 3.860087605 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 81 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 24 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26642 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-33 36 19 24 0 Shortfall of Sites 3.77419289 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 79 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 25 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26632 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-32 34 18 22 0 Shortfall of Sites 3.503322929 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 74 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 26 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26622 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-26 11 6 7 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.135987335 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 24 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 27 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26612 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-27 21 11 14 0 Shortfall of Sites 2.189852497 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 46 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 28 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26592 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-25 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.254145848 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 26 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 29 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26582 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-16 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.196160598 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 25 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 30 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26572 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-30 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.57254868 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 12 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 31 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26602 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-13 157 82 103 0 Shortfall of Sites 16.26471722 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 342 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 32 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST26526 TOWNE CENTRE DR 92610 612-093-31 10 5 6 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.019581701 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 21 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 33 High Resource Foothill Ranch LAKE FOREST24288 SWARTZ DR 1 92630 617-501-01 59 31 39 0 Shortfall of Sites 6.153220763 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 129 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 34 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST24392 ROCKFIELD BLVD 92630 617-501-04 88 46 58 0 Shortfall of Sites 9.161718949 MIXED-USE 43 Community Commer cMIXED-USE 43MU-43 0 43 192 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 35 Low Resource El Toro LAKE FOREST22722 CENTRE DR 92630 617-432-03 13 7 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.326328663 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 28 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 38 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22765 ASPAN ST 92630 617-432-18 7450 Shortfall of Sites 0.738090139 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 15 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 39 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22741 ASPAN ST 92630 617-432-19 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.589382745 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 12 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 40 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22859 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 617-432-14 7450 Shortfall of Sites 0.742447552 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 16 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 41 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22865 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 617-432-25 5330 Shortfall of Sites 0.510942448 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 11 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 42 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22855 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 617-432-13 11 6 7 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.07768409 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 23 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 43 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FOREST22831 LAKE FOREST DR 92630 617-432-09 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.304262211 MIXED-USE 43 Industrial Park MIXED-USE 4 3MU-43 0 43 27 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 44 Low Resource Lake Forest Dr LAKE FORESTORANGE AVE & WHISLER DR 92630 617-241-57 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.591088064 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 12 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 45 Low Resource Industrial/Rail LAKE FOREST25142 FRONT ST 92630 613-374-08 19 10 12 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.960023625 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 41 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 46 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23131 ORANGE AVE 92630 613-371-01 23 12 15 0 Shortfall of Sites 2.43740836 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 51 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 47 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23081 ORANGE AVE A 92630 613-361-03 9560 Shortfall of Sites 0.917284252 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 19 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 48 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST25101 FRONT ST 92630 613-372-05 5330 Shortfall of Sites 0.506062432 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 11 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 49 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23132 ORANGE AVE 92630 613-372-02 19 10 13 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.981549095 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 42 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 50 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23132 ORANGE AVE 92630 613-372-01 8450 Shortfall of Sites 0.844433033 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 18 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 51 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23222 OLIVE AVE 92630 613-373-06 11 6 7 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.166339659 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 24 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 52 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FORESTCHERRY AVE & FRONT ST 92630 613-373-03 6340 Shortfall of Sites 0.651443735 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 14 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 53 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FORESTOLIVE AVE & FRONT ST 92630 613-373-02 8450 Shortfall of Sites 0.82959032 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 17 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 54 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23271 CHERRY AVE 92630 613-373-01 12 6 8 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.218513428 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 26 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 55 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST23211 CHERRY AVE 92630 613-362-04 16 8 10 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.641492507 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 34 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 56 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST25312 JERONIMO RD 92630 613-362-02 14 7 9 0 Shortfall of Sites 1.437847034 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 43 Industrial Park URBAN INDU SUI-43 0 43 30 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 57 Moderate ResouIndustrial/Rail LAKE FOREST20772 CIVIC CENTER DR 92630 104-132-78 0077 Shortfall of Sites 1.192169857 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 14 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 58 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20712 CIVIC CENTER DR 92630 610-332-07 0 0 21 21 Shortfall of Sites 3.464594704 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 42 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 59 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FORESTINDIAN OCEAN DR & COMMERCENTRE DR 92630 610-332-04 0 0 14 14 Shortfall of Sites 2.329840458 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN IND USUI-25 0 25 28 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 60 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20602 CIVIC CENTER DR 92630 610-332-09 0 0 30 30 Shortfall of Sites 4.964294627 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 60 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 61 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST26000 COMMERCENTRE DR 92630 610-332-08 0 0 19 19 Shortfall of Sites 3.088663236 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 37 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 62 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FORESTINDIAN OCEAN DR & COMMERCENTRE DR 92630 104-132-79 0 0 15 15 Shortfall of Sites 2.383955339 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Open Space URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 29 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 63 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20941 CANADA RD 92630 610-151-29 0 0 17 17 Shortfall of Sites 2.872984571 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 34 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 64 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20845 CANADA RD 92630 610-301-24 0066 Shortfall of Sites 0.900152383 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 11 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 65 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20762 LINEAR LN 92630 610-301-29 0088 Shortfall of Sites 1.218441897 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 15 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 66 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20792 CANADA RD 92630 610-301-31 0088 Shortfall of Sites 1.298525214 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 16 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 67 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20742 LINEAR LN 92630 610-301-13 0055 Shortfall of Sites 0.71561155 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 9 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 68 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20722 LINEAR LN 92630 610-301-22 0044 Shortfall of Sites 0.697844104 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 8 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 69 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20702 LINEAR LN 92630 610-301-23 0055 Shortfall of Sites 0.749709659 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 9 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 70 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST26212 DIMENSION DR 92630 610-301-11 0088 Shortfall of Sites 1.259701242 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 15 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 71 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20781 CANADA RD 92630 610-301-16 0055 Shortfall of Sites 0.711370225 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 9 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 72 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20761 CANADA RD 92630 610-301-17 0 0 10 10 Shortfall of Sites 1.544583418 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 19 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 73 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST26242 DIMENSION DR 92630 610-301-18 0099 Shortfall of Sites 1.400052107 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 17 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 74 High Resource Civic Center LAKE FOREST20700 CANADA RD 92630 613-821-04 0 0 27 27 Shortfall of Sites 4.493663549 URBAN INDUSTRIAL 25 Light Industrial URBAN INDU SUI-25 0 25 54 Non-Vacant Underutilized c 75 High Resource Civic Center City of Lake Forest 2021‐2029 Public Draft Housing Element Appendix A ‐ Site Inventory Item: 11
554

Table C: Land Use, Table Starts in A2
Zoning Designation
(From Table A, Column G) General Land Uses Allowed
R2 Multifamily
Multifamily dwellings; single‐family
dwellings; modiblehome developments;
residential condominiums; residential
planned (unit) developments.

City of Lake Forest 2021 ‐2029 Public Draft Housing Element Appendix A ‐ Site Inventory Item: 11
555

Suitability of Nonvacant Sites | City of Lake Forest 6th Cycle RHNA Parking (including
occupancy trends) Ingress/Egress Issues Signs of Deferred Maintenance
Low Lot Coverage
(Less than 50%)
23861 EL TORO RD 1 617 ‐053‐09
Commercial use, 7‐story multi‐tenant office building. Saddleback Executive Suites. Former Chase Bank on bottom floor (listed as "permanently closed" on Google) with suites above. Street access from El Toro Road and driveway to back entrance and large parking lot. Not currently listed for lease or sale on Loopnet. https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/23861‐El‐Toro‐Rd‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/11282809/. Large angled parking lot. Likely, but unconfirmed Moderate

XXX X X X
23862 BRIDGER RD 2 617 ‐053‐10
Commercial use, 1 story restaurant/bar (occupied by The Pub) and parking lot. Connected to fast‐food (Arby's) with a drive‐thru. Small enclosed outside patio. Small/Medium parking lot as part of a larger parking lot (connects to 23861 El Toro Rd) Low
X XX X
23861 EL TORO RD 3 617 ‐053‐02 Parking lot and drive‐thru ATM (Chase). Angled parking used for 23861 El Toro Rd Moderate XX X X 23782 BRIDGER RD 4 617 ‐053‐03
Commercial/light industrial use, 1 story nursery (Green Thumb Nursery). Small building footprint, larger storage and dirt/gravel plant area with plants for sale, pallets/soil/groundcover and loading/unloading area. 2 in/out driveways along Bridger Rd and 1 loading/unloading driveway. No sidewalk along Bridger Rd (paved sidewalk north and south of site terminates Low
X XX
23831 EL TORO RD 5 617 ‐053‐11
Multi‐tenant commercial use shopping mall and parking lot. Lake Forest Marketplace shopping center. Big box retailers (99 Cent Store, Guitar Center, Harbor Freight), Bank of America, smaller restaurants & retail (T‐ shirts Plus, Cigar Bar, etc.). Large parking lot with multiple access driveways, parking aisles, a Del Taco drive‐ thru. Three (3) units for lease (16,838 SF of retail at 23783‐23811 El Toro Rd) ‐ https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/23783‐23811‐El‐Toro‐Rd‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/18001783/ Three units for lease Low XX X X
MERCURY RD & ROCKFIELD BLVD 6 617 ‐474‐16
Commercial use and medium/large parking lot. 1 story retail chains (Turner's Outdoorsman and Boot Barn).

Part of Rockfield Place shopping mall (along with Map Reference 7). Borders I‐5 freeway on western side.

Medium/large 90‐degree parking lot looks underutilized Low XX X X
23764 MERCURY RD 7 617 ‐474‐10
Commercial use and parking lot (Rockfield Showplace). 1 story retail (Salvation Army, restaurant, Leslie's Pool Supplies, massage, dentist) in a strip‐mall setting with medium/large 90‐degree parking lot, lot looks underutilized. Part of Rockfield Place shopping Mall (along with Map Reference 6). One (1) unit for lease (1,792 SF of retail at 23804) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/23762‐23822‐Mercury‐Rd‐Lake‐Forest‐ CA/12314921/ One unit for lease (23804) Low
XX X X
23591 ROCKFIELD BLVD 8 617 ‐431‐06
1‐story commercial use in strip‐mall setting. Rockfield Center. Enterprise Rent‐A‐Car and 5 other small retail/restaurants with a small 90‐degree parking lot with one aisle, two driveways (Rockefeller Blvd and Centre Dr). Slightly unkempt. Low
X XX
23581 ROCKFIELD BLVD 9 617 ‐431‐07
Commercial/light industrial use car wash (Checkered Flag). Lots of pavement (loading/driveway/parking), enclosed automatic car wash and vacuums at parking stalls. Driveway shares entrance with Map Reference 8 (on Rockefeller Blvd) Low
XX
22821 ASPAN ST 10 617 ‐433‐03
1‐story commercial with small office/retail uses (fitness studio, trophy engravers, physical therapy, salon).

Part of Aspan Plaza neighborhood shopping center, medium size parking lot with multiple aisles, 90‐degree parking. Driveway access from Aspan St. two (2) units for lease (5,000 sf of retail) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/22821‐Lake‐Forest‐Dr‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/11747867/. Shares parking lot with Map Reference 11
Two units for lease (ste 109
and 206) Low
XX X
22762 ASPAN ST 11 617 ‐433‐04
1‐story commercial with small office/retail uses (acupuncture, pawn shop). Part of Aspan Plaza neighborhood shopping center, medium size parking lot with multiple aisles, 90‐degree parking. Driveway access from Aspan St. Shares parking lot with Map Reference 10 See Map Reference 10 Low XX X
22771 CENTRE DR 12 617 ‐431‐02
1‐story commercial with one tenant, bowling alley (Forest Lanes) with large parking lot that appears to be severely underutilized Low XX X
ASPAN ST & CENTRE DR 13 617 ‐433‐08
1‐story commercial with small office/retail uses (medical, real estate office, copy store, etc.). Part of Aspan Plaza neighborhood shopping center, medium size parking lot with multiple aisles, 90‐degree parking. one (1) unit for lease (500 sf of office/retail). https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/22706‐22762‐Aspan‐St‐Lake‐ Forest‐CA/12854621/ One unit for lease (ste 703b) Low

XX X X X
22681 LAKE FOREST DR 14 617 ‐493‐01
1‐story, multi‐tenant commercial use shopping mall and large parking lot. Lake Forest Town Center. Retail big box (99 cent store) and chains (Pepboys, Wingstop, Jack in the Box with drive‐thru), with several smaller restaurant and retail uses. Six (6) units for lease (one large 6,225 sf that was former Mimi's Restaurant and five 1,000‐1,500 SF units) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/22651‐22671‐Lake‐Forest‐Dr‐Lake‐Forest‐ CA/12017031/ 6 units for lease Low
XX X X
22471 ASPAN ST 15 617 ‐491‐04 2 Story office building and parking lot. Aspan Office Center. Built in 1980s. Low X XX 20780 LAKE FOREST DR C 16 613 ‐621‐16
1 story office/restaurant (Starbucks drive‐thru, veterinary, bakery, salon) and parking lot. One (1) unit for lease (1800 SF) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/20770‐20780‐Lake‐Forest‐Dr‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/12171787/ 1 unit for lease Moderate/Mixed XX X X X 20768 LAKE FOREST DR 17 613 ‐621‐17 3 ‐story hotel use (Holiday Inn Express) and parking lot.

Low (Newer hotels
available) XX
20761 LAKE FOREST DR 18 613 ‐622‐09 1 story retail/restaurant in strip‐mall setting Low X XX 20722 LAKE FOREST DR 19 613 ‐621‐12 1 story self‐service car wash. 4 long loading driveways going into car wash bay. Parking and vacuums. Low X XX 20702 LAKE FOREST DR 20 613 ‐621‐10 Multi ‐tenant 1 story restaurant/auto repair uses in horseshoe‐shaped, strip‐mall setting. Low X X 20652 LAKE FOREST DR 21 613 ‐621‐11 1 story restaurant (Wienerschnitzel) with drive‐thru and parking lot. Low X XX 20651 LAKE FOREST DR 22 613 ‐623‐02
1 story multi‐tenant mini‐mall (Foothill Retail Center). Liquor store, deli, salon, preschool and parking lot.

Main suite appears vacant (dark windows, no signage).

Possibly, at least one unit
appears vacant Low XX X
20671 LAKE FOREST DR 23 613 ‐623‐01 1 story corner restaurant/medical uses. In same parking lot as Map reference Number 22. Low XX X X 26672 TOWNE CENTRE DR 24 612 ‐093‐34 3 story office uses and parking lot Low X XX 26642 TOWNE CENTRE DR 25 612 ‐093‐33 3 story office uses and parking lot Low X XX 26632 TOWNE CENTRE DR 26 612 ‐093‐32 3 story office uses and parking lot. 3 office units for lease 3 units for lease Low XX X X 26622 TOWNE CENTRE DR 27 612 ‐093‐26 1 story bank (Wells Fargo) (part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center, a large outdoor mall). Moderate XX X 26612 TOWNE CENTRE DR 28 612 ‐093‐27 1 story multiple restaurants and large parking lot (part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center, a large outdoor Moderate XX 26592 TOWNE CENTRE DR 29 612 ‐093‐25 1 story freestanding restaurant (Miguel's) (part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center, a large outdoor mall). Moderate X 26582 TOWNE CENTRE DR 30 612 ‐093‐16 1 story freestanding restaurant (Islands) (part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center, a large outdoor mall). Moderate XX X 26572 TOWNE CENTRE DR 31 612 ‐093‐30
1 story freestanding restaurant (vacant, used to be Souplantation). Part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center.

For lease, 7,500 SF. https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/26572‐Towne‐Centre‐Dr‐Foothill‐Ranch‐ Yes, vacant Moderate XX 26602 TOWNE CENTRE DR 32 612 ‐093‐13 Large 1 story cinema (Regal Cinemas) and parking lot (part of Foothill Ranch Towne Center) Moderate XX X 26526 TOWNE CENTRE DR 33 612 ‐093‐31 Large 1 story restaurant/entertainment (Chuck E Cheese) and parking lot. Moderate XX 24288 SWARTZ DR 1 34 617 ‐501‐01
Large 1‐story, multi‐building, multi‐tenant retail/restaurant (Big 5 Sports, Tommy's, etc.) shopping mall and large parking lot. Built approx. 1980. Two (2) large (~6,000 SF) retail units for lease. https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/24280‐24400‐Swartz‐Dr‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/19523509/ 2 units for lease Low XX X X
24392 ROCKFIELD BLVD 35 617 ‐501‐04
Large 1‐story, multi‐unit shopping mall (Sprouts, CVS, Ross) with smaller retail units (massage, clothing store, etc and parking lot. Low X XX
23572 PROTHERO 36 617 ‐064‐18 Abandoned house with overgrown landscaping Low XX 23139 LOS ALISOS BLVD 37 613 ‐351‐05 Saddleback Ranch Apartments developed with 304 units Moderate X X 22722 CENTRE DR 38 617 ‐432‐03
1‐story commercial use in a strip mall setting. One larger banquet hall and 4 smaller retail/office (Avis Rent‐ A‐Car, a pub, massage) with a small, one‐aisle parking lot and two driveway entrances on Centre Dr. Low X X 22765 ASPAN ST 39 617 ‐432‐18
Commercial/light industrial (America's Tire). Alleyway on Aspan St borders northern section of site and leads to other auto‐related uses (Map Reference Number 40), cars being repaired parked along alley. Low X XXX 22741 ASPAN ST 40 617 ‐432‐19
Light industrial uses (auto repair shops). Accessed by alleyway on Aspan St. Cars being repaired parked along alley. Low X XXX
22859 LAKE FOREST DR 41 617 ‐432‐14 This property is a vacant Del Taco restaurant building. Vacant Very low XX X X X 22865 LAKE FOREST DR 42 617 ‐432‐25 This property is a vacant office building. Vacant Very low XX X X 22855 LAKE FOREST DR 43 617 ‐432‐13
1 story retail/office/restaurant use (medical, cleaners, dentist, Subway). Sadleback Court shopping mall.

Small/Medium parking lot with multiple parking aisles. One (1) space for lease (1,189 sf retail) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/22855‐Lake‐Forest‐Dr‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/22572454/ 1 unit for lease Low XX X X
22831 LAKE FOREST DR 44 617 ‐432‐09
1 story retail with small wrap‐around parking lot. US Bank with drive‐thru and retail/office (chiropractic, window treatment, employment agency). Low X X
ORANGE AVE & WHISLER DR 45 617 ‐241‐57 2 story Towing and self‐storage Low X XX 25142 FRONT ST 46 613 ‐374‐08 2 story self‐storage Low X 23131 ORANGE AVE 47 613 ‐371‐01 1 story multi‐tenant auto repair/light industrial mini‐mall. One (1) unit for lease 1 unit for lease Low XX X X Redevelopment Trends Present
Address Demand for
Current Use
Map
Reference APN Specific Description of Uses Known Vacancies/For Rent Oversupply of Retail
Discontinuation
of Office (Work
from Home)
Vacancies/For
Rent/For Sale
Opportunity for
Infill (Keep Existing
Uses)
Expressed Property
Owner Interest
Site Characteristics (Low Utilization/
Item: 11
556

Parking (including
occupancy trends) Ingress/Egress Issues Signs of Deferred Maintenance
Low Lot Coverage
(Less than 50%)
Redevelopment Trends Present
Address Demand for
Current Use
Map
Reference APN Specific Description of Uses Known Vacancies/For Rent Oversupply of Retail
Discontinuation
of Office (Work
from Home)
Vacancies/For
Rent/For Sale
Opportunity for
Infill (Keep Existing
Uses)
Expressed Property
Owner Interest
Site Characteristics (Low Utilization/
23081 ORANGE AVE A 48 613 ‐361‐03 1 story multi‐tenant auto repair/light industrial Low XX 25101 FRONT ST 49 613 ‐372‐05 Tow yard/auto storage, fenced‐in Low XX 23132 ORANGE AVE 50 613 ‐372‐02 Industrial (Ganahl Lumber) parking and operations. Moderate XX 23132 ORANGE AVE 51 613 ‐372‐01 Industrial (Ganahl Lumber) parking and operations. Moderate XX 23222 OLIVE AVE 52 613 ‐373‐06 Industrial/storage (closed to public, storage containers visible) Low X CHERRY AVE & FRONT ST 53 613 ‐373‐03 Industrial/storage Low X OLIVE AVE & FRONT ST 54 613 ‐373‐02 Industrial/storage (Resource Building Materials) Moderate X 23271 CHERRY AVE 55 613 ‐373‐01 Industrial/storage (Resource Building Materials) Moderate X 23211 CHERRY AVE 56 613 ‐362‐04 1 story multi‐tenant auto repair and two aisle parking lot Low XX 25312 JERONIMO RD 57 613 ‐362‐02
1 story multi‐tenant commercial/light industrial (gym, wood and laminate showroom) with parking lot. One (1) unit for lease (3,400 sf @ 25302 Jeronimo Rd) https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/25302‐25332‐Jeronimo‐ Rd‐Lake‐Forest‐CA/24105076/ 1 unit for lease Low
XX X
20772 CIVIC CENTER DR 58 104‐132‐78
Large paved lot with vehicles and construction equipment, small office/vehicle storage, fenced‐in, occupied by Sunstate Equipment (Construction Equipment Rentals & Tools) Moderate XX 20712 CIVIC CENTER DR 59 610‐332‐07 1 story freestanding industrial building and parking lot, landscaping near road. Secured parking lot. Vacant For lease Moderate XX INDIAN OCEAN DR & COMMERCENTRE
DR 60 610 ‐332‐04
Paved, fenced‐in industrial storage with hangers and equipment staging/storage, appears to be connected to APN 610‐332‐09 and owned/operated by ARB Industrial (subsidiary of Primoris Services Corporation) Moderate XX 20602 CIVIC CENTER DR 61 610 ‐332‐09
2 story industrial/warehousing building, narrow and long with bay doors on southern building face, paved with vehicle and semi‐truck parking, storage units/shipping containers, possibly some sort of fill up (gas) station. Connected to APN 610‐332‐04, appears to be owned by ARB Industrial (subsidiary of Primoris Services Corporation) Moderate
XX
26000 COMMERCENTRE DR 62 610 ‐332‐08
1 story commercial/light industrial building, occupied by ARB Industrial (subsidiary of Primoris Services Corporation). Wraparound parking lot and landscaping occupy much of the site. Surrounded by business park type uses. Moderate
X
INDIAN OCEAN DR & COMMERCENTRE
DR 63 104 ‐132‐79 (No street‐level view available). Undeveloped, easement with gravel access road underneath utility lines. Moderate X 20941 CANADA RD 64 610 ‐151‐29
(No street‐level view available). Self‐storage building occupied by American Mini Storage. Adjacent to residential uses on southern and western border, easement and industrial/warehousing uses on the northern border, light industrial uses on eastern border. Low XX
20845 CANADA RD 65 610 ‐301‐24
(No street‐level view available). 1 or 2 story office building in manufacturing/business park, occupied by Camali Corp (engineering and IT company specializing in data centers) Moderate XX 20762 LINEAR LN 66 610 ‐301‐29
1 or two story office/warehousing building with bay door, loading/unloading, storage and parking lot.

Occupied by All Seals (distributer of rubber parts) Moderate XX 20792 CANADA RD 67 610 ‐301‐31
2 story office/warehousing building and parking lot, solar panel covered parking. Occupied by Schmaze Custom Coatings (paint/coating) Moderate X
20742 LINEAR LN 68 610 ‐301‐13 1 story office/manufacturing building and parking lot, occupied by AFAB Precision Machining Moderate X 20722 LINEAR LN 69 610 ‐301‐22 1 story office building and parking lot, possibly occupied by Wieser Educational Inc. Moderate X 20702 LINEAR LN 70 610 ‐301‐23
1 story office/manufacturing building and parking lot, occupied by Lyall Turbosonics, Inc. (product design and injection molder of thermoplastics) Moderate X
26212 DIMENSION DR 71 610 ‐301‐11
2 story multi‐tenant office/light industrial building with alleyway and bay doors behind it. Tenants include auto repair shop, other light industrial uses, marketing, accounting firm, etc. Possibly one‐two vacancies, high tenant turnover Possibly but unconfirmed Moderate
XX X X
20781 CANADA RD 72 610 ‐301‐16
1‐2 story light industrial building occupied by Carstar (auto body) and parking lot. Landscaping in between building and street. Moderate X
20761 CANADA RD 73 610 ‐301‐17
2‐3 story office/light manufacturing/warehousing building with paved shipping/receiving area and bay doors in back Moderate XX
26242 DIMENSION DR 74 610 ‐301‐18
2 story multi‐tenant office/light industrial building with alleyway and bay doors behind it. Tenants include a gym, insurance agent, PT/sports rehab, kid's bounce house, etc. Possibly one‐two vacancies, high tenant turnover Possibly but unconfirmed Moderate
XX X
20700 CANADA RD 75 613 ‐821‐04 1 ‐2 story self‐storage with gate and fencing, landscaping alongside road. Moderate X Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /7 /10 /i255 /13 /14 /15/16/17 /i255/13 /14/13 /15 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/7 /10 /i255 /13 /14 /15 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31 /2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /33 /23 /2 /34 /35 /36 /i255 /38 /35 /38 /39 /39 /i255 /40/41/42/43 /44 /45 /i255 /46 /43 /i255 /47 Map Reference: 000034

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /7 /10 /i255 /13 /14 /15/16/17 /i255/13 /14/13 /15 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/7 /10 /i255 /13 /14 /15 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /9 /3 /i255 /13 /14 /13/15/16 /i255/13 /14/13 /15 /i255 /17 /18 /18 /3 /19 /4 /20 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /21 /22 /4/23/i255/24 /i255 /12/9 /3 /i255 /13 /14 /13 /15 /25 /2 /26 /4 /i255 /27 /18 /10 /4 /28 /8 /29 /i255 /30/2 /19 /22 /31 /18 /10 /32 /22 /2 /i255 /17 /18 /18 /3 /19 /4
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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31 /2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /13 /23 /2 /33 /34 /35 /i255 /37 /37 /38 /39 /40 /i255 /41 /42 /43 /41 /44 /i255 /42 /45 Map Reference000039

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /4 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/4 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31 /2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /13 /23 /2 /33 /34 /35 /i255 /37 /37 /38 /39 /40 /i255 /41 /42 /43 /44 /i255 /45 /46 /47 /44 /48 /49 /i255 /50 /47 Map Reference000041

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31 /2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /13 /23 /2 /33 /34 /i255 /36 /i255 /34 /34 /37 /38 /39 /i255 /40 /41 /42 /43 /i255 /44 /45 /46 /43 /47 /48 /i255 /49 /46 Map Reference000042

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /i255/18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31 /2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /13 /23 /2 /33 /34 /35 /i255 /37 /37 /38 /39 /39 /i255 /40 /41 /42 /43 /i255 /44 /45 /46 /43 /47 /48 /i255 /49 /46 Map Reference000043

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /4 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /14 /14 /21 /22 /23 /i255 /24 /25 /7 /2 /26 /i255 /27 /8 /28 /28 /29 /i255 /31 /31 /32 /33 /34 /i255 /35 /36 /37 /38 /i255 /39 /40 /41 /38 /42 /43 /i255 /44 /41 Map Reference000044

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /4 /6 /i255 /13 /14 /13/14/15 /i255/13 /14/13 /16 /i255 /17 /18 /18 /3 /19 /4 /20 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /21 /22 /4/23/i255/24 /i255 /12 /4 /6 /i255 /13 /14 /13 /14 /25 /2 /26 /4 /i255 /27 /18 /10 /4 /28 /8 /29 /i255 /30 /2 /19 /22 /31 /18 /10 /32 /22 /2 /i255 /17 /18 /18 /3 /19 /4
/13 /33 /34 /35 /13 /i255/36/37/22 /28 /19 /4 /10 /i255 /12 /10 /38 /39 /40 /i255 /42 /43 /44 /45 /46 /38 /43 /45 /39 /44 Map Reference000045

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Item: 11
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/0/1/2/3 /4 /i255 /6 /2 /7 /8 /9 /10 /4 /11 /i255 /12 /2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14/16/17 /i255/14 /15/14 /16 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4 /21 /8 /10 /4 /4 /8 /i255 /22 /23 /4/24/i255/25 /i255 /12/2 /13 /i255 /14 /15 /14 /16 /26 /2 /27 /4 /i255 /28 /19 /10 /4 /29 /8 /30 /i255 /31/2 /20 /23 /32 /19 /10 /13 /23 /2 /i255 /18 /19 /19 /3 /20 /4
/14 /33 /16 /15 /16 /i255 /28 /10 /19 /13 /8 /i255 /21 /8 /34 /35 /36 /i255 /38 /39 /40 /34 /38 /i255 /41 /42 /43 /44 /45 /i255 /46 /45 Map Reference000046

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Item: 11
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/14 /33 /16 /34 /15 /i255 /35 /10 /2 /13 /3 /4 /i255 /36 /37 /4 /38 /39 /40 /i255 /42 /43 /44 /43 /44 /i255 /45 /46 /47 /48 /49 /50 /i255 /47 /51 /50 Map Reference000047

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Item: 11
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/14 /33 /16 /15 /34 /i255 /35 /10 /2 /13 /3 /4 /i255 /36 /37 /4 /38 /39 /40 /i255 /42 /43 /44 /39 /45 /i255 /46 /47 /48 /49 /50 /51 /i255 /48 /52 /51 /i255 /48 Map Reference000048

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Item: 11
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Map Reference000049

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Map Reference000050

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Map Reference000051

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Map Reference000053

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Map Reference000054

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Appendix B: Public
Engagement
Summary
Adopted August 16, 2022
Minor Revisions
November 2022

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1 City of Lake Forest Housing
Element Update
August 2022

In partnership with De Novo Planning Group

Public
Engagement
Summary
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2 Table of Contents
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3 General Education and Advertisements ............................................................................................................................ 4 Project Website .................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Virtual Community Workshop ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Stakeholder Meetings/Consultation ............................................................................................................................... 20 Public Review of Draft Housing Element ......................................................................................................................... 21 Feedback Influence ........................................................................................................................................................... 22 Public Comment: Tapestry ............................................................................................................................................... 24

Figures
Figure 1: How long have you lived in the City? ..................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2: What made you decide to live here? ..................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3: If you wish to own a home in Lake Forest but do not currently own one, what issues are preventing you from owning a home at this time? ................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 4: How would you rate the physical condition of the residence you live in? ............................................ 13 Figure 5: Which of the following housing upgrades or expansions have you considered making on your home? ............................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 6: What types of housing are most needed in the City of Lake Forest? (Residents) ................................. 16 Figure 7: What types of housing are most needed in the City of Lake Forest? (Non-Residents) ......................... 17 Figure 8: If you are currently employed, approximately how long is your one-way commute to work? ............ 18 Figure 9: How important are the following housing priorities to you and your family? ...................................... 20

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3 Introduction
The City of Lake Forest is updating its Housing Element as part of the 2021-2029 Housing Element Cycle (Cycle 6). Lake Forest is dedicated to meeting the future housing needs of its residents. The Housing Element Update process is a unique opportunity to connect with residents of Lake Forest and learn more about residents’ values, priorities, concerns, and ideas.

While the City’s public engagement program connected directly to the Housing Element Update began in late 2020, the City conducted a robust outreach program as part of its comprehensive General Plan Update (which was adopted in mid-2020). As part of that work effort, which included dozens of community meetings, study sessions, and public hearings, the community had the opportunity to weigh-in on key areas for focused future residential and nonresidential growth.

Through this effort, the City identified five focus areas where new mixed-use development is desirable. These areas are designated as “Mixed-Use” in the General Plan and the City is currently preparing a focused update to its Zoning Ordinance to adopt new zoning standards for these mixed- use areas. A majority of the sites included in the City’s Housing Element Site Inventory (Appendix A) are located within these mixed-use areas. The Housing Element is a continuation of the City’s comprehensive General Plan Update and builds upon the legacy of public involvement included in that work, which included focused outreach to the City’s lower-income residents through participation of Council-appointed representatives to the General Plan Advisory Committee and pop- up community workshops and events in lower-income neighborhoods of the community. For more information related to the General Plan public engagement program, please see the City’s website at https://www.lakeforestca.gov/292/Planning-Documents.

Throughout the process, the City supported meaningful public engagement by sending direct advertisements, posting to social media, hosting surveys, facilitating workshops, and sharing summaries of feedback to validate what we heard. Looking forward to the public review period of the Draft Housing Element, the City will continue to engage the community to seek feedback on the goals, policies, and programs included in the Housing Plan as well as input regarding key issues and challenges identified in the Background Report, including the City’s plan to accommodate its fair share of future regional housing growth.

The following activities have been conducted in support of the Housing Element Update and are summarized in this document; copies of key advertisements and presentations are included at the end of this document and are also available on the project website at https://lakeforest.generalplan.org/. • General Education and Advertisements
• Project Website
• Virtual Workshop
• Stakeholder Meetings/Consultation
• Public Review of Draft 2021-2029 Housing Element
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4 General Education and Advertisements
The City engaged in a multifaceted campaign to advertise the focused update to the City’s Housing Element to all members of the community, including lower-income households. Using the City’s social media accounts, email listserv generated through the General Plan Update, the City’s dedicated General Plan Update website and the City’s own website, and direct mailers to interested stakeholders, project announcements as part of the City’s community services material (delivered to every resident in the City), the City worked hard to educate the community on this project and solicit meaningful feedback from all stakeholders.

Social Media
The City of Lake Forest maintains various social
media accounts including Facebook, Nextdoor, and
Instagram. Starting in September 2020 and
continuing throughout the project, the City posted
updates to its social media platforms advertising
opportunities to provide input and alerting the
public to upcoming meetings and workshops.

Emails
The project team complied a database of community
members and stakeholders who registered to be
notified via email of future public engagement
opportunities and key deliverables. Direct emails
were sent to these individuals to advertise the
Housing Element Community Meeting, the Online
Workshop, and the Public Review Draft 2021-2029
Housing Element.

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5 Project Website
A dedicated project website (https://lakeforest.generalplan.org/) serves as the main conduit of information for individuals who can access material online. The project website is a continuation of the General Plan Update website (launched in 2018) and is regularly updated to reflect ongoing community input opportunities, advertise draft work products, and answer commonly asked questions. The project website includes the following pages:
• Home Page: Introduction about the project
• FAQ: A presentation of common questions and answers including an overview of why public feedback is important and how it will be used to shape the work products • Survey: Dedicated page to host open surveys
• Get Involved: Information regarding upcoming and past meetings and events, including public workshops, open houses, and hearings
• Documents & Maps: Library of relevant documents and maps prepared for the project as well as links to the City’s Planning Division webpage which hosts additional City documents • Contact Us: Project team contact information and a fillable form to submit comments on an ongoing basis and register to receive future project updates Since September 2020, the project website received over 1,200 views from 959 unique visitors resulting in a total of 2,800 pageviews. The peak of activity happened around the housing survey, facilitated throughout the month of December 2021.

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6 Virtual Community Workshop
As part of the community outreach, a virtual community workshop was conducted to educate the community about housing issues and opportunities facing Lake Forest and gather input on housing- related topics. The virtual workshop was hosted on the project website from November 23, 2020 through December 22, 2020. The extended timeframe was intended to allow community members and stakeholders to participate at their leisure and in accordance with their schedule and availability.

The Virtual Community Workshop consistent of three parts:

Part A: Overview video (narrated in English and subtitled in Spanish) describing Housing Elements and why they are important
Part B: PowerPoint presentation describing existing conditions in Lake Forest and the City’s Housing Element Update process (https://youtu.be/c-LAnI2MGWc)
Part C: Two surveys to gather information on housing-related issues. Survey #1 focused on issues of home maintenance, affordability, home types, and living conditions in Lake Forest as well as demographic questions. Survey #2 focused on community priorities related to housing. This section includes a summary of the responses received and the general themes that emerged. • Survey #1 was 14 questions long. It had a 94% completion rate and 124 total responses. • Survey #2 was 2 questions long. It had an 87% completion rate and 69 total responses.

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7 Community Survey
The City of Lake Forest is updating its Housing Element as part of the 2021-2029 Housing Element Cycle (Cycle 6). The City recently updated its General Plan (2020); updating the Housing Element builds upon that foundation of analysis and community engagement to address the future housing needs of its residents. The Housing Element Update process is a unique opportunity to connect with residents of Lake Forest and learn more about residents’ values, priorities, concerns, and ideas.

As part of the community outreach, a virtual community workshop was conducted and two surveys were presented. The two surveys work together to gather information on housing-related issues.

Survey #1 focused on issues of home maintenance, affordability, home types, and living conditions in Lake Forest as well as demographic questions. Survey #2 focused on community priorities related to housing. This report is a summary of the responses received and the general themes that emerged.

Both surveys were posted to the website on November 23, 2020 and were open for a month. The surveys were closed on December 22, 2020.

Survey #1 was 14 questions long. It had a 94% completion rate and 62 total responses.

Survey #2 was 2 questions long. It had an 69% completion rate and 49 total responses.

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8 Executive Summary

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9 Survey #1: Respondent Demographics
The survey contained 7 questions related to demographics. The first question of the survey was, “Do you live in Lake Forest?”1 Approximately 47% of respondents answered, “No.” Given the large number of responses that came from non-residents on a survey meant to ascertain information about residential conditions and attitudes towards housing within the City, the results from residents and non-residents are analyzed separately in this Community Survey Report. Non-residents also skipped large portions of the survey (which would be expected since the questions are largely non- applicable to non-residents). As such, unless otherwise noted, all survey results reported are from the sample of resident responses (33 in total for Survey #1 regarding housing conditions).

Of the other six demographic questions asked, one of those questions included an opportunity for users to sign-up for more information about the Housing Element update process. The other five questions highlighted the following about the respondents:
• Of those individuals who live in Lake Forest, approximately 64% have lived here for 10+ years.

The next highest response (27%) was 5-10 years, followed by 2-5 years (9%).2 • Most of the respondents own their own home (79%), with 21% of respondents renting.3 • Most of the respondents (79%) live in a single-family home, with the next highest category being multi-family homes (15%), followed by duplex/attached homes (5%) and mobile homes (5%).4
• Of the respondents surveyed, the most common types of households include couples (33%), couples with children younger than 18 (24%), and single-person households (21%). There was considerable range in household types including 9% who identified as an unlisted household type, such as couples with adult children living with them.5 • The respondents were primarily 56-74 years old (36%), followed by 40-55 years old (30%), and 24-39 years old (18%).6

1 Question 1: Do you live in Lake Forest?
2 Question 2: How long have you lived in the City?
3 Question 4: Do you currently own or rent your home?
4 Question 5: Select the type of housing that best describes your current home. 5 Question 9: Which of the following best describes your household type? 6 Question 14: What age range most accurately describes you? Item: 11
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10 Figure 1: How long have you lived in the City?

Survey #1 Responses
The survey responses reveal information about housing in Lake Forest. The results are grouped into four categories: values and priorities; housing affordability; housing maintenance; and housing fit.

VALUES AND PRIORITIES
When respondents were asked, “What made you decide to live here?”7 the most common answers were:
• Affordability (48%)
• Proximity to job/work (45%)
• Proximity to family and/or friends (45%)
• Safety of neighborhood (42%)
• Quality of housing stock (27%)
• Quality of local school system (24%)
• Other (27%)
• Proximity to shopping and services (18%)
• City services and programs (6%)

Some of the other responses included:
• Living with family
• Smaller town atmosphere with lower density and some breathing room • The view from our house
• Proximity to parks, trails, and other outdoor opportunities • Quiet neighborhood

7 Question 3: What made you decide to live here?
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11 Figure 2: What made you decide to live here?

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
When respondents were asked, “If you wish to own a home in Lake Forest but do not currently own one, what issues are preventing you from owning a home at this time?”8 those who do not already own a home responded:
• I cannot find a home within my target price range in Lake Forest (18%) • I cannot find a home that suits my living needs in Lake Forest (housing size, disability accommodations) (12%)
• I do not currently have the financial resources for an appropriate down payment (9%) • I do not currently have the financial resources for an adequate monthly mortgage payment (6%)
• I cannot currently find a home that suits my quality standards in Lake Forest (3%)

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12 Over 70% of Lake Forest residents who responded to this question already owned a home in Lake Forest. None of the residents expressed the opinion that they do not wish to own or rent in Lake Forest.

Figure 3: If you wish to own a home in Lake Forest but do not currently own one, what issues are preventing you from owning a home at this time?

When the responses of non-residents were compared, the following differences occur:

For those who do not currently live in Lake Forest, 67% responded that they do not currently wish to own or rent a home within the City. Additionally, 33% of non-residents responded that they cannot find a home within their target price range in Lake Forest, and 4% responded that they do not currently have the financial resources for an appropriate down payment.

HOUSING MAINTENANCE
When respondents were asked, “How would you rate the physical condition of the residence you live in?”9 more than half of all respondents answered positively, with the response “excellent condition” receiving 55%.

9 Question 7: How would you rate the physical condition of the residence you live in? Item: 11
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13 Figure 4: How would you rate the physical condition of the residence you live in?

Approximately 40% of respondents answered that their residence showed signs of minor deferred maintenance such as peeling paint or chipped stucco. No respondents indicated that their home needed one or more major repairs, which is generally consistent with the home maintenance issues related to the City’s relatively young housing stock.

When asked, “Which of the following housing upgrades or expansions have you considered making on your home?”10 the top responses included:
• Painting (55%)
• HVAC (36%)
• Roofing (33%)
• Other (33%)
• Solar (27%)

The other responses included: landscaping, kitchen or bathroom remodels, plumbing, and other maintenance related to the interior of the home.

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14 Figure 5: Which of the following housing upgrades or expansions have you considered making on your home?

HOUSING FIT
When asked, “How satisfied are you with your current housing situation?”11, over 90% of respondents indicated that they were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with their current housing. The top responses were:
• I am very satisfied (61%)
• I am somewhat satisfied (30%)
• I am somewhat dissatisfied (9%)
• I am dissatisfied (6%)
Some of the explanations as to why respondents were dissatisfied include:
• The city is growing too fast for the infrastructure (i.e. roadways, etc.) • Have outgrown current type of housing, but single-family homes in the area are too expensive • Want to buy a condo, but cannot find one
• Too much traffic-related noise
• On a fixed-income and worried about rising housing costs

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15 When asked, “Do you think that the range of housing options currently available in the City of Lake Forest meets your needs?”12 respondents answered:
• Yes (59%)
• No (41%)
While more than half (59%) of resident respondents answered that there were a sufficient range of housing options currently available in the City, non-residents answered this question nearly the exact opposite. Fifty-eight (58%) of non-residents stated, “No,” while only (42%) of non-residents stated, “Yes.” This shows a fairly even division of opinions on the matter.

When asked, “What types of housing are most needed in the City of Lake Forest?”13 respondents answered:
• Condominiums (multifamily ownership homes) (44%)
• Other (41%)
• Apartments (multi-family rental homes) (38%)
• Senior Housing (38%)
• Duplex/Attached Housing (25%)
• Housing for people with disabilities (25%)
• Single-family (detached) (25%)

12 Question 11: Do you think that the range of housing options currently available in the City of Lake Forest meets your needs?
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16 Figure 6: What types of housing are most needed in the City of Lake Forest? (Residents)

Some of the other responses included:
• Affordable housing including in the low-income and very low-income price ranges • Handicap accessible housing
• Transition housing for individuals experiencing homelessness • Single-story single-family homes so individuals can age in place Non-residents felt differently about the matter. Of non-residents the top responses included:
• Housing for people with disabilities (57%)
• Other (43%)
• Senior Housing (43%)
• Condominiums (multifamily ownership homes) (43%)
• Apartments (multi-family rental homes) (43%)

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17 Figure 7: What types of housing are most needed in the City of Lake Forest? (Non-Residents)

Some of the other responses included:
• Affordable housing
• Homeless housing
• Permanent supportive housing

When asked, “If you are currently employed, approximately how long is your one-way commute to work?”14 respondents were most likely to reply:
• I am not currently employed (45%)
• 10-25 miles (18%)
• I am employed, but work from home (15%)
These responses, coupled with the age of survey respondents, indicate that a larger percentage of individuals completing the survey are retired. Given the on-going nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, it should be noted that some of those currently employed but working from home may be doing so on a temporary basis. This issue will be explored further as part of the City’s upcoming Community Satisfaction Survey.

Of non-residents who are employed, the most commonly reported commute distances were 5-10 miles (16%). There were no non-residents who reported commute distances of 25 miles or more

14 Question 13: If you are currently employed, approximately how long is your one-way commute to work? Item: 11
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18 which seems to indicate that individuals who work in Lake Forest but live elsewhere live in nearby jurisdictions.

Figure 8: If you are currently employed, approximately how long is your one-way commute to work?

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19 Survey Responses #2
The second survey focused on understanding the relative importance of various housing priorities to the respondent and their family. Of the 49 respondents, 34 responded that they were residents.

When asked, “Do you live and/or work in Lake Forest?”15 respondents stated:
• Yes (69%)
• No (31%)
Note that if the respondent answered “no,” to this question they were not invited to complete the remainder of the survey; this is because the question relates to prioritization of City resources, and City residents are more directly impacted by how the City elects to spend its resources versus non- residents. This preserves the integrity of the survey questions, but also lowered the completion rate (69%) of the survey. That does mean, however, that 100% of respondents who answered, “Yes” to Question 1, went on to complete the survey.

When asked, “How important are the following housing priorities to you and your family?”16 the top priorities listed as either “very important” or “somewhat important” were:
• Support fair/equitable housing opportunities (100%)
• Support programs to help maintain and secure neighborhoods that have suffered foreclosures (100%)
• Establish programs to help at-risk homeowners keep their homes, including mortgage loan programs (97%)
• Provide housing affordable to working families (94%)
• Rehabilitate existing housing (94%)

The issue that ranked as the lowest importance were:
• Build more single-family housing (34%)

15 Question 1: Do you live and/or work in Lake Forest?
16 Question 2: How important are the following housing priorities to you and your family? Item: 11
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20 Figure 9: How important are the following housing priorities to you and your family?

Stakeholder Meetings/Consultation
Throughout preparation of the Public Draft General Plan, the City has engaged directly with community stakeholders working in and around Lake Forest. The City sent a hard copy letter and email to over two dozen stakeholders, including affordable housing developers and advocates, faith- based organizations, and community groups to invite them to consult on the Housing Element Update process. The City met one-on-one with three groups:
• Tapestry, A Unitarian Universalist Congregation/Welcoming Neighbors Home (Tapestry’s Initiative to End Homelessness)
• The Kennedy Commission
• Province Group
• Orange County Fair Housing Council
The City was pleased to meet and hear from these organizations as part of the preparation process, and the input received through these meetings was invaluable in helping to plan for and address the City’s current and future housing needs.

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21 Public Review of Draft Housing Element
The Public Review Draft 2021-2029 Housing Element was made available to the public on September 22, 2021. The material was posted to the project website and a press release was posted to the City’s website and advertised at public hearings and to individuals registered for project notifications. The City is also advertising the Public Review Draft and providing direction on how individuals can provide public comment via its social media challenges and direct letters to stakeholder engaged in housing services in and around Lake Forest.

Interested parties are were invited to submit public comments using a fillable comment card available on the project website, provide written comments via mail to City Hall, or email comments to the City’s Housing Element Project Manager.

The City will hosted a Community Meeting on the Public Review Draft Housing Element on October 7, 2021. The intent of the Community Meeting will was be to provide another avenue/opportunity for the public to learn about the Housing Element, provide input, and ask questions. The Community Meeting will included a live presentation, and a copy of this presentation will was made be available on the project website.

Public Review of Subsequent Revisions
Following adoption of the Housing Element by the City Council in January 2022, HCD found that additional minor revisions were required to comply with State Housing Law. The City revised the Housing Element to address these comments and circulated these revisions to the public on June 30, 2022. The revisions were posted to the City’s website and all interested parties were notified via email. The City facilitated a public hearing with the Planning Commission on July 6, 2022 to discuss the revisions and solicit additional input. The City received no public comments on any proposed revisions. The Housing Element continued to be available onsite for review throughout the months of July and August, leading up to the City Council’s consideration of the revisions on August 16, 2022, at which time the City Council readopted the Housing Element inclusive of the revisions required.

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22 Feedback Influence
The feedback received from the public during preparation of the Housing Element and on the Public Draft Housing Element directly influenced the goals, policies, and programs included in the Housing Plan. Table 1 below summarize how public input is reflected in the Housing Plan.

General Input Received Applicable Reference
Goal Policy Program Other
There should be more
affordable housing choices for
people who want to live in
Lake Forest, including kids
who grow up in Lake Forest
(Survey)
• Goal 1 • Policy 1.1
• Policy 1.2
• Policy 1.3
• Policy 1.4

• Program 1
• Program 4
• Program 5
• Program 8
•

The City should have a range
of housing options to meet
different personal preferences
(Survey)
• Goal 1 • Policy 1.1
• Policy 1.3
• Policy 1.4
• Program 1
• Program 5
• Program 7
• Program 8
• Program 15

The City should create
additional opportunities for
lower cost homeownership
(Survey)
• Goal 3 • Policy 3.1
• Policy 3.2
• Policy 3.3
• Program 20
Revise policies to include a
requirement for affordable
housing (Tapestry)
• Goal 1 • Policy 1.6
• Policy 1.7
• Policy 1.8
• Program 1
• Program 5

Market available housing sites
to housing developers
(Tapestry)
• Program 5
• Program 22
•
Assess current fee structure
(Tapestry)
• Goal 1 • Policy 1.5 • Program 6
Work with County
representatives and
neighboring cities to address
affordable and permanent
supportive housing (Tapestry)
• Program 9
• Program 10
• Program 11
•
Implement best planning
practices (Tapestry)
• All • All • All
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23 Engage the community from
the beginning of the Housing
Element Update process
(Kennedy Commission)
The City provided
early opportunities
for public input
through the
community survey
on online comment
card. The City
continues to make
opportunities
available through
the Community
Open House and
public review
process.

City can help advertise fair
housing resources in new
ways (OC Fair Housing Council)
• Goal 4 • Policy 4.6 • Program 22
Consider funding new fair
housing programs, as
requested by service
provider(s) (OC Fair Housing
Council)
• Goal 4 • Policy 4.3 • Program 21

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24 Public Comment: Tapestry

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ATTACHMENT 1

EXHIBIT B
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Environmental Analysis

2021-2029 Housing Element Update
October 2021

Prepared for:

City of Lake Forest
100 Civic Center Drive
Lake Forest, CA 92630

Prepared by:

De Novo Planning Group
180 E. Main Street, Suite 108
Tustin, CA 92780

De Novo Planning Group
A Land Use Planning, Design, and Environmental Firm
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INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT ....................................................................................................... 2 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................................................... 2 PROJECT LOCATION AND SETTING ............................................................................................................ 3 CHARACTERISTICS OF PROPOSED PROJECT REVISIONS/ADDITIONS ....................................... 5 PREVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES APPLICABLE TO THE PROPOSED PROJECT .................. 11 CEQA GUIDELINES SECTION 15183 ........................................................................................................ 11 PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW CONCLUSION ....................................................................... 14 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................... 15 I. AESTHETICS ................................................................................................................................................... 15 II. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY RESOURCES ................................................................................. 16 III. AIR QUALITY ............................................................................................................................................... 18 IV. BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES ...................................................................................................................... 20 V. CULTURAL RESOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 21 VI. ENERGY ......................................................................................................................................................... 22 VII. GEOLOGY AND SOILS ............................................................................................................................. 23 VIII. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ........................................................................................................ 25 IX. HAZARDS AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ...................................................................................... 26 X. HYDROLOGY AND WATER QUALITY .................................................................................................. 30 XI. LAND USE AND PLANNING ................................................................................................................... 33 XII. MINERAL RESOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 34 XIII. NOISE........................................................................................................................................................... 34 XIV. POPULATION AND HOUSING ............................................................................................................ 36 XV. PUBLIC SERVICES .................................................................................................................................... 37 XVI. RECREATION ............................................................................................................................................ 39 XVII. TRANSPORTATION .............................................................................................................................. 39 XVIII. TRIBAL CULTURAL RESOURCES .................................................................................................. 41 XIX. UTILITIES AND SERVICE SYSTEMS ................................................................................................ 41 XX. WILDFIRE .................................................................................................................................................... 44

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INTRODUCTION
The following pages provide an ana lysis of the proposed 2021-2029 Housing Element (Project) with respect to the Project’s consistency with the 2040 Lake Forest General Plan ( 2040 General Plan) and the analysis contained in the 2040 Lake Forest General Plan Final Environmental Impact Report (2040 General Plan FEIR) State Clearinghouse No. 2019090102.

As explained in the following pages, the proposed P roject is consistent with the 2040 General Plan, for which an EIR was prepared and certified, and there are no impacts associated wit h the proposed Project that have not been fully addressed in a previous environmental document. The findings presented below demonstrate that no additional environmental analysis is required under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) prior to approval of the proposed Project.

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT

BACKGROUND
The Housing Element is a State -mandated element of the General Plan. The City of Lake Forest must update its Housing Element every eight years. Updates to the Housing Element must meet the requirements of California Government Code Sections 65580 -65589. The purposes of the Housing Element are to identify the community's housing needs; to state the community's goals and objectives with regard to housing production, rehabilitation, and conservation to meet those needs; and to define the policies and programs that the community will implement to achieve the stated goals and objectives.

State law requires that the City accommodate its “fair share” of regional housing needs, which are assigned by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) for all jurisdictions in the SCAG region. SCAG established the 2021-2029 Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) to assign each city and the unincorporated county in the region its fair share of the regional housing need based on a number of factors established by State law (Government Code Section 65584) and regional housing burdens and needs. The objectives of the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) are:
• Increase housing supply and the mix of housing types; • Promote infill, equity, and environment;
• Ensure jobs housing balance and fit;
• Promote regional income equity; and
• Affirmatively further fair housing.

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Beyond the income -based housing needs established by the RHNA, the Housing Element must also address special needs groups; such as seniors, persons with disabilities including developmental disabilities, single female parents, large families, farm workers, and homeless persons.

PROJECT LOCATION AND SETTING
The City of Lake Forest is located in southern Orange County, nestled within Saddleback Valley, southwest of the Santa Ana Mountains. Lake Forest is bordered by the cities of Irvine and Mission Viejo, and is within 7 miles (northeast) of the Pacific Ocean. Interstate 5, 405 Freeway, and California State Route 241 provide regional access. Lake Forest has a population of 84,711 (Department of Finance, 2020) and is approximately 16.6 square miles in size. The City incorporated in 1991 and expanded its city lim its in 2000 to include the master planned developments of Foothill Ranch and Portola Hills. Although Lake Forest is a relatively new city, the community has a rich history dating back to the mid-1800s.

Lake Forest has the feel of a small community, but wit h the amenities of a large city. The City provides a diverse range of employment, lifestyle, and housing opportunities, all complemented by the surrounding natural environment. As such, the community has become a desirable place to live, offering lake -front homes, condominiums, town homes, mobile home parks, retirement communities, and affordable housing. Lake Forest’s family -oriented atmosphere is especially appealing to those with younger children. The City is served by quality public schools for grades K-12, several preschools, and private elementary schools.

The 2040 General Plan Land Use and Design Element designates the general distribution and intensity of residential, commercial, industrial, open space, public/semi -public, and other categories of pub lic and private land uses throughout the City. It also identifies high -level community design objectives for the City of Lake Forest, including the relationship between the public and private realm, streetscapes, best site planning practices, and placemaking strategies.

The Land Use and Design Element is primarily implemented by the City’s Zoning Ordinance, which specifies districts and performance standards for various types of land uses described in the 2040 General Plan. The zone districts specify the permitted uses for each category and applicable development standards. The City is currently preparing an update to its Zoning Ordinance to create new mixed -use zones to implement the mixed -use land use designations included in the 2040 General Plan; this update is expected to be completed in 2022.

The Land Use and Design Element includes the Land Use Map, which identifies land use designations for each parcel in the City Limits and Planning Area (Figure LU -1 of the Land Use and Design Element). Table 1 Land Use Development Potential Summary , summarizes the expected development capacity for residential uses within Lake Forest based on reasonable density assumptions for the City and SOI.

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TABLE 1: LAKE FOREST LAND USE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SUMMARY Land Use Designation Acres
(1)
Allowed
Density
and/or
Intensity
Assumed
Density
and/or
Intensity (2)
Units Population
(3)
Non-
Residential
Square Feet
Jobs (4)

RESIDENTIAL LAND USES
Very Low Density - 0-2 du/ac 1 du/ac - - - -
Low Density 2,499 2-7 du/ac 6.8 du/ac 17,023 50,559 - - Low-Medium Density 880 7-15 du/ac 10.9 du/ac 9,589 28,481 - - Medium Density 361 15-25 du/ac 22 du/ac 7,931 23,555 - - High Density 16 25-43 du/ac 38 du/ac 620 1,840 - -
Residential Subtotal 3,756 35,163 104,435 - -

NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USES
Commercial 341 1.0:1 FAR 0.25 FAR - - 3,718,616 8,263
Professional Office 12 1.2:1 FAR 0.30 FAR - - 156,816 522 Business Park 298 1.0:1 FAR 0.35 FAR - - 4,545,819 7,576 Light Industrial 627 0.60:1 FAR 0.35 FAR - - 9,565,602 15,943 Public Facility 373 1.2:1 FAR 0.05 FAR - - 811,508 812 Non-Residential Subtotal 1,651 - - 18,798,361 33,116

MIXED-USE LAND USES
Mixed-Use 32 49 32 du/ac

1.0:1 FAR
32 du/ac;

0.25 FAR 1,570 4,663 534,327 1,186
Mixed-Use 43 312 43 du/ac

1.2:1 FAR
36 du/ac (2);

0.40 FAR 8,179 24,290 5,429,287 12,067
Mixed-Use Office 24 1.5:1 FAR 0.50 FAR - - 513,715 1,284 Urban Industrial 25 95 25 du/ac

1.0:1 FAR
22 du/ac;

0.40 FAR 2,090 6,207 1,655,280 2,758
Urban Industrial 43 22 43 du/ac

1.2:1 FAR
36 du/ac;

0.40 FAR 792 2,352 323,328 539
Mixed-Use Subtotal 502 12,631 37,512 8,455,937 17,834

LIMITED DEVELOPMENT LAND USES
Community Park/Open Space 249 0.40:1 FAR 0.0025 FAR - - 27,148 27 Regional Park/Open Space 1,939 0.10:1 FAR 0.0001 FAR - - 8,448 8 Open Space 877 0.40:1 FAR - - - - -
Lake 58 - - - - - -
Transportation Corridor 30 0.20:1 FAR - - - - -
Right-of-Way 1,681 - - - -
Limited Development Subtotal 4,834 - - 35,596 36
Totals 10,742 47,794 141,947 27,289,894 50,986

1. Acres are given as adjusted gross acreages, which do not include the right -of-way for major roadways, flood control facilities, or railroads.

2. Density/intensity includes both residential density, expressed as dwelling units per acre, and nonresidential intensity, expressed as floor area ratio (FAR), which is the amount of building square feet in relation to the size of the lot. Historically, citywide buildout levels do not achieve the maximum allowable density/intensity on every parcel, and are, on average, lower than allowed by the General Plan. Accordingly, the projections in this General Plan do not assume buildout at the maximum density or intensity but are adjusted downward to account for variations in development.

3. Estimates of population are based on average household size of 2.97, as identified by the California Department of Finance, 2018.

4. Estimates of jobs by land use designation are based on employment generation rates derived from the Longitudinal Employer - Household Dynamics (2015) Report.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF PROPOSED PROJECT REVISIONS/ADDITIONS The project analyzed herein involves the 20 21-2029 Housing Element Update. The proposed update would not modify the 2040 Gener al Plan Land Use Map, land use designations, or intensities/densities identified within the 2040 General Plan Land Use and Design Element. No changes to the maximum development potential approved for the 2040 General Plan and analyzed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR would occur with the proposed Project.

In compliance with State Housing Element Law requirements, the City of Lake Forest has prepared the 2021-2029 Housing Element (Project) to:
• Provide goals, policies, quantified objectives and scheduled programs to preserve, improve and develop housing
• Identify and analyze existing and projected housing needs for all economic segments of the community
• Identify adequate sites that are zoned and available within the 8 -year housing cycle to meet the City’s fair share of regional housing needs at all income levels • Affirmatively further fair housing
• Be certified (approved) by the State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) as complying with State law
• Be internally consistent with other parts of the General Plan

HOUSING ELEMENT ORGANIZATION
The proposed Housing Element Update covers the October 15, 2021 through October 15, 2029 planning period and is comprised of the following components:

Part 1: Housing Plan
Part 1 of the 2021-2029 Housing Element is the City’s “Housing Plan”, which includes the goals, policies, and programs the City will implement to address constraints and needs. The City’s overarching objective is to ensure that decent, safe housing is available to all current and future residents at a cost that is within the reach of the diverse economic segments which comprise Lake Forest. To this end, the Housing Plan focuses on:
1) Encouraging housing diversity and opportunities;
2) Maintaining, preserving, and conserving existing residential neighborhoods; 3) Increasing opportunities for home ownership;
4) Promoting equal opportunity for all residents to reside in the housing of their choice.

The Housing Plan includes only minor modifications to the City’s current Housing Element Goals and Policies. The Housing Plan includes a number of new programs to address State housing law including future required updates to the Lake Forest Zoning Ordinance, new programs to support affirmatively furthering fair housing, and tracking and reporting requirements for Housing Sites.

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Part 2: Background Report
Part 2 of the 2021-2029 Housing Element is the “Background Report” which identifies the nature and extent of Lake Forest’s housing needs, including those of special populations, potential housing resources (land and funds), potential constraints to housing production, and energy conservation opportunities. In addition to identifying housing needs, the Background Report also presents information regarding the setting in which these needs occur. The Background Report comprehensively updates the background context and conditions identified in the City’s current Housing Element.

Appendix A: Housing Sites Inventory
The Housing Element must include an inventory of land suitable and available for residential development to meet the City’s regional housing need by income level. The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) requires that the Housing Sites Inventory be prepared using a State -approved format, included as Appendix A. No land use changes are proposed to accommodate the City’s Regio nal Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA); future residential development is expected to occur in those areas already identified for residential uses including land within mixed-use areas identified in the 2040 General Plan. All sites identified in the City’s Housing Sites Inventory are currently identified for new development consistent with the potential development capacities identified in Appendix A.

Appendix B: Public Engagement Summary
As part of the Housing Element Update process, the City hosted numerous opportunities for the community and key stakeholders to provide feedback on existing housing conditions, housing priorities, priority areas for new residential growth, and topics related to fair housing. Public participation played an important role in the refinement of the City’s housing goals and policies and in the development of new housing programs, as included in Part 1: Housing Plan. The public’s input also helped to validate and expand upon the contextual information included in Part 2: Background Report. The City’s efforts to engage the community in a meaningful and comprehensive way are summarized in Appendix B.

CAPACITY TO MEET REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS
As determined by SCAG , the City of Lake Forest ’s fair share allocation (RHNA) is 3,236 new housing units during this planning cycle . This includes: 956 units affordable to extremely/very low income households; 543 units affordable to low income households; 559 units affordable to moderate income households; and 1,178 units affordable to above moderate income households.

State Income Limits which are used to determine affordability levels are set annually by the California Department of Housing and Community Development.

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Progress Towards the RHNA
RHNA uses June 30, 2021 as the baseline for growth projections for the 2021 -2029 planning period. Jurisdictions may count toward the RHNA housing units that have been developed, are under construction, and/or have received their building permits after June 30, 202 1. Since this time, 755 housing units have been developed, are under construction, or have received their building permits in Lake Forest. Jurisdictions may also count projects that are approved/entitled but not yet built or under construction ; 753 units in multiple income categories, have been approved/entitled and are expected to be developed within the planning period. With these units taken into account, Lake Forest has a remaining RHNA of 1,846 units (848 extremely low/very low income units, 445 low income units, 553 moderate income units); a surplus of 118 unit occurs within the above-moderate income units.

TABLE 2: REMAINING 6TH CYCLE RHNA
Status Extremely
Low/Very
Low
Low Moderate Above
Moderate
TOTAL
RHNA Allocation 956 543 559 1,178 3,236
Constructed, Under
Construction/Permits
Issued (Since 6/30/2021)
1 1 1 752 755
Units Approved/Entitled 107 97 5 544 753
Remaining Allocation 848 445 553 0 (with
surplus of
118 units)
1,846*
Source: City of Lake Forest, 2021, Southern C3alifornia Association of Governments, 2021 *The total remaining allocation is the remaining allocation of extremely low/very low, low, and moderate income units (848, 44 5, and 553, respectively). This results in a remaining allocation of 1,846 units. The surplus of above moderate -income units (118) cannot be deducted from the remaining allocation, which is based on the remaining allocation by income level.

Residential Sites Inventory to Accommodate Remaining RHNA The City has sufficient land appropriately zoned for residential uses throughout the community to accommodate its remaining RHNA (1,846 units) for the 2021-2029 planning period. The City of Lake Forest’s 6th Cycle residential sites fall into three categories:
1) Accessory dwelling units. ADUs are allowed on any lot that is zoned for single- family or multifamily dwelling residential use. In 2020 the City updated its ADU ordinance to encourage the production of ADUs throughout the community. The City approved two ADUs in 2018, three ADUs in 2019, and seven ADUs in 2020. The City continues to promote ADUs as a way to expand the City’s housing stock and anticipates production to continue at or above 2020 levels for the duration of the planning period. The City has assumed production of ADUs at a rate of 4 units per year for the 8 year planning period, resulting in an assumed production of 32 ADUs from 2021- 2029.

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2) Underutilized residential sites . As part of this Housing Element update, the City has identified two properties currently designated for residential development as suitable for accommodating a portion of the City’s moderate and above moderate - income RHNA allocation. These vacant propert ies have the potential to yield 382 units, assuming each parcel is developed at 80% of its maximum capacity.

3) Underutilized sites in mixed -use areas. As described in the City’s Land Use Element, new residential growth is anticipated to occur in mixed -use focus areas located throughout the City. As part of the City’s General Plan Update, over 383 acres were designated for mixed-use development allowing for densities of at least 30 du/ac. The Housing Element only relies on 123 acres of the 383 acre s designated for such development, or just over 32%. Only 50% of the development potential at mixed-use sites has been allocated to accommodate the City’s RHNA allocation, to account for potential mixed-use and non-residential development on portions of the sites. Based on this methodology, underutilized sites in mixed -use areas have the potential to yield 2,965 units.

TABLE 3: COMPARISON OF RHNA CANDIDATE SITES REALISTIC CAPACITY AND RHNA Status Extremely
Low/Very Low
Low Moderate Above
Moderate
TOTAL
Remaining 6th
Cycle RHNA
848 445 553 0 (with a surplus
of 118 units)
1,846
ADUs 8 14 9 1 32
Underutilized
Residential Sites*
0 0 187 195 382
Underutilized Sites
in Mixed-Use
Areas*
1,167 608 979 218 2,965
Total +327 (surplus) +177 (surplus) +622 (surplus) +532 (surplus) +1,658 (surplus) Notes: *The realistic capacity analysis of underutilized residential land assumes that only 80% of the potential capacity would be realized.

The realistic capacity analysis of underutilized sites in mixed-use areas assumes that only 50% of the potential capacity of development would be realized. If the sites develop closer to their maximum capacity, which has been realized as part of past projects, the City’s surplus of units affordable to lower-income households would be significantly higher.

SUMMARY OF HOUSING ELEMENT MODIFICATIONS
As previously noted, State law requires that the Housing Element be reviewed and updated not less than every eight years, in order to remain relevan t and useful, and reflect a community’s changing housing needs. The proposed Housing Element Update involves minor changes/additions to the Housing Element and environmental conditions under which it would be implemented. The following summarizes the modif ications to the Housing Element, as compared to the 2013-2021 Housing Element:

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Goals, Policies, and Programs (Part 1: Housing Plan)
The City made minor modifications to the Policies included in the Housing Element to reflect the City’s current housing needs and State mandates.

The Housing Plan revises existing policies to better reflect state law regarding the provision of special needs housing, removing governmental and nongovernmental constraints, and affirmatively furthering fair housing. Revised goals and policies include:
• Policy 2.1: Quality and Conditions of Existing Housing Stock • Policy 2.3: Rehabilitation and Home Improvement Funding • Policy 2.6: Rental and Homeownership Opportunities
• Policy 3.2: State and Federal Funding Sources for Fair Home Purpose Options • Policy 4.3: Enforcement of Fair Housing Laws
The Housing Plan includes new policy direction, consistent with state law, related to maintaining adequate capacity to accommodate the City’s RHNA at all income levels for the duration of the planning period, the reuse of sites identified in prior Housing Elements, and reducing impacts associated with nongovernmental constraints. New policies include:
• Policy 1.7: Maintain Adequate Capacity
• Policy 1.8: By-Right Approval for Qualified Sites Identified in Past Inventories The Housing Plan includes numerous revisions to existing programs to better reflect the community’s housing needs. Revised programs include:
• Program 1: Land Use Policy, Entitlements and Development Capacity • Program 2: Monitor Residential Capacity (No Net Loss) • Program 5: Facilitate Affordable and Special Needs Housing Construction • Program 6: Monitor Changes in Federal and Sate Housing, Planning, and Zoning Laws • Program 9: Sites for Homeless Shelters/Homeless Prevention and Assistance Services • Program 10: Transitional/Supportive and Affordable Housing • Program 11: Coordination with Social Service Agencies • Program 14: Rental Assistance
• Program 15: Conservation of Existing Affordable Units • Program 16: Housing Rehabilitation Loan Program
• Program 17: Code Enforcement and Neighborhood Preservation • Program 20: Homebuyer Assistance Programs
• Program 21: Fair Housing Services
The Housing Plan includes new programs consistent with state law and the goals and policies included in the City’s Housing Element. New programs include:

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• Program 3: Public Property Conversation to Housing Program • Program 4: Replacement of Affordable Units
• Program 7: Zoning Code Amendments – Housing Constraints • Program 8: Accessory Dwelling Units
• Program 12: California Accessibility Standards Compliance Program • Program 13: Density Bonus Implementation Program
• Program 18: Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency Opportunities • Program 19: Lead Based Paint Education and Reduction Program • Program 22: Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Outreach and Coordination Program • Program 23: Economic Displacement Risk Analysis
All other Goals, Policies and Programs are reflective of the City’s current Housing Element with limited or no modifications to reflect current conditions.

Background Information (Part 2: Background Report)
The Background Report of the Housing Element has been comprehensively updated to include current information. This section of the Housing Element includes: Introduction, Accomplishments Under 5 th Cycle Housing Element, Housing Needs Assessment, Constraint s, Housing Resources, and Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Analysis.

Appendix A: Housings Sites Inventory
The City has updated its Housing Sites Inventory to demonstrate capacity to accommodate its 2021-2029 RHNA. The Housing Sites Inventory includes a list of sites appropriate to accommodate the RHNA at the appropriate densities and income levels and includes sites identified in the Current Housing Element and other sites designated for residential development consistent with the City’s 2040 General Plan. No land use changes are proposed as part of the 2021-2029 Housing Element.

Appendix B: Public Engagement Summary
The public engagement program conducted as part of the Housing Element Update project is summarized in Appendix B.

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PREVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES APPLICABLE TO THE

PROPOSED PROJECT
In June 2020 , the Lake Forest City Council considered and certified the Final EIR (State Clearinghouse No. 2019090102) for the 2040 Lake Forest General Plan. The 2040 General Plan FEIR evaluated the anti cipated development that could occur within the Planning Area based upon land use densities and intensities proposed as part of the 2040 General Plan.

The proposed Project would be consistent with the development densities established by the 2040 General Plan policies for which the 2040 General Plan FEIR was certified. Residential development consistent with the 2040 General Plan, including cumulative impacts, were fully addressed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR.

CEQA GUIDELINES SECTION 15183
The Housing Element Update is a Project under CEQA and was analyzed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15183 allows a streamlined environmental review process for projects that are consistent with the densities established by existing zoning, community plan or general plan policies for which an EIR was certified. As noted below, the proposed Project is consistent with the land use designations and densities established by the 2040 General Plan, for which an EIR was certified. The provisions contained in Section 15183 of the CEQA Guidelines are presented below. 15183. Projects Consistent with a Community Plan or Zoning (a) CEQA mandates that projects which are consistent with the development density established by existing zoning, community plan, or general plan policies for which an EIR was certified shall not require additional environmental review, except as might be necessary to examine whether there are project -specific signi ficant effects which are peculiar to the project or its site. This streamlines the review of such projects and reduces the need to prepare repetitive environmental studies.
(b) In approving a project meeting the requirements of this section, a public agency shall limit its examination of environmental effects to those which the agency determines, in an initial study or other analysis:
(1) Are peculiar to the project or the parcel on which the project would be located, (2) Were not analyzed as significant effects in a prior EIR on the zoning action, general plan, or community plan, with which the project is consistent, (3) Are potentially significant off- site impacts and cumulative impacts which were not discussed in the prior EIR prepared for the general plan, community plan or zoning action, or
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(4) Are previously identified significant effects which, as a result of substantial new information which was not known at the time the EIR was certified, are determined to have a more severe adverse impact than discussed in the prior EIR. (c) If an impact is not peculiar to the parcel or to the project, has been addressed as a significant effect in the prior EIR, or can be substantially mitigated by the imposition of uniformly applied development policies or standards, as contemplated by subdivision (e) below, then an additional EIR need not be prepared for the project solely on the basis of that impact.
(d) This section shall apply only to projects which meet the following conditions:
(1) The project is consistent with:
(A) A community plan adopted as part of a general plan, (B) A zoning action which zoned or designated the parcel on which the project would be located to accommodate a particular density of development, or (C) A general plan of a local agency, and
(2) An EIR was certified by the lead agency for the zoning action, the community plan, or the general plan.
(e) This section shall limit the analysis of only those significant environmental effects for which:
(1) Each public agency with authority to mitigate any of the significant effects on the environment identified in the planning or zoning action undertakes or requires others to undertake mitigation measures specified in the EIR which the lead agency found to be feasible, and
(2) The lead agenc y makes a finding at a public hearing as to whether the feasible mitigation measures will be undertaken.
(f) An effect of a project on the environment shall not be considered peculiar to the project or the parcel for the purposes of this section if uniformly applied development policies or standards have been previously adopted by the City or county with a finding that the development policies or standards will substantially mitigate that environmental effect when applied to future projects, unless substan tial new information shows that the policies or standards will not substantially mitigate the environmental effect. The finding shall be based on substantial evidence which need not include an EIR. Such development policies or standards need not apply throughout the entire City or county, but can apply only within the zoning district in which the project is located, or within the area subject to the community plan on which the lead agency is relying. Moreover, such policies or standards need not be part of the general plan or any community plan, but can be found Item: 11
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within another pertinent planning document such as a zoning ordinance. Where a City or county, in previously adopting uniformly applied development policies or standards for imposition on future proj ects, failed to make a finding as to whether such policies or standards would substantially mitigate the effects of future projects, the decision-making body of the City or county, prior to approving such a future project pursuant to this section, may hold a public hearing for the purpose of considering whether, as applied to the project, such standards or policies would substantially mitigate the effects of the project. Such a public hearing need only be held if the City or county decides to apply the standards or policies as permitted in this section.
(g) Examples of uniformly applied development policies or standards include, but are not limited to:
(1) Parking ordinances.
(2) Public access requirements.
(3) Grading ordinances.
(4) Hillside development ordinances.
(5) Flood plain ordinances.
(6) Habitat protection or conservation ordinances.
(7) View protection ordinances.
(8) Requirements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as set forth in adopted land use plans, policies, or regulations.
(h) An environmental effect shall not be considered peculiar to the project or parcel solely because no uniformly applied development policy or standard is applicable to it. (i) Where the prior EIR relied upon by the lead agency was prepared for a general plan or community plan that meets the requirements of this section, any rezoning action consistent with the general plan or community plan shall be treated as a project subject to this section.
(1) “Community plan” is defined as a part of the general plan of a City or county which applies to a defined geographic portion of the total area included in the general plan, includes or references each of the mandatory elements specified in Section 65302 of the Government Code, and contains specific development policies and implementation measures which will apply those policies to each involved parcel. (2) For purposes of this section, “consistent” means that the density of the proposed project is the same or less than the standard expressed for the involved parcel in the Item: 11
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general plan, community plan or zoning action for which an EIR has been certified, and that the project complies with the density -related standards contained in that plan or zoning. Where the zoning ordinance refers to the general plan or community plan for its density standard, the project shall be consistent with the applicable plan. (j) This section does not affect any requirement to analyze potentially significant offsite or cumulative impacts if those impacts were not adequately discussed in the prior EIR. If a significant offsite or cumulative impact was adequately discussed in the prior EIR, then this section may be used as a basis for excluding further analysis of that offsite or cumulative impact.

PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW CONCLUSION
A comprehensive environmental evaluation has been completed for the Project as documented in the attached Environmental Analysis. This evaluation concludes that the Project qualifies for an exemption from additional environmental review because it is consistent with the development density established by the 2040 General Plan, as analyzed by the 2040 General Plan FEIR, and all required findings can be made. The proposed Project would not result in: 1) a peculiar impact that was not identified as a significant impact under the 2040 General Plan FEIR; 2) a more severe impact due to new information; or 3) a potentially significant off-site impact or cumulative impact not discussed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR.

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ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
This section of the Environmental Analysis incorporates the most current Appendix "G" Environmental Checklist Form contained in the CEQA Guidelines. Impact questions and responses are included in narrative formats for each of the environmental topic areas.

I. AESTHETICS
The 2040 General Plan FEIR determined that impacts to aesthetic resources would be less than significant through the implementation of policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

While the Lake Forest Planning Area contains numerous areas and viewsheds with relatively high scenic value, there are no officially designated scenic vista points in the Planning Area.

Additionally, there are no officially designated scenic highways located in the vicinity of Lake Forest. Significant visual resources in the Planning Area include several prominent creeks, including Aliso Creek, Serrano Creek, San Diego Creek, and the Bor rego Canyon Wash, and the Eucalyptus groves that surround portions of the lakes. Other prominent visual features throughout the Planning Area include views of ridgelines, hillsides, and canyons.

Implementation of the 2040 General Plan could lead to new an d expanded urban and suburban development throughout the City. This new development may result in changes to the skyline throughout the Planning Area, which may obstruct or interfere with views of visual features surrounding the Planning Area. Furthermore, buildout under the 2040 General Plan and implementation of the 2040 General Plan Land Use Map has the potential to result in new and expanded development along highway corridors with high scenic values, even though these corridors are not officially desig nated as State Scenic Highways. Additionally, expanded development could occur alongside roadways within the City of Lake Forest considered landscape corridors by the Orange County General Plan, which include El Toro Road and a portion of Santa Margarita Parkway. This is considered a potentially significant impact, which would be mitigated to a less than significant level through the implementation of the policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

Zoning and other regulations governing scenic quality ap plicable to the City of Lake Forest include the Lake Forest Citywide Design Guidelines, the El Toro Redevelopment Project Area Design Guidelines, the Light Industrial Design Guidelines. Policies in the 2040 General Plan are intended to complement and further the intent of these provisions regulating scenic quality and resources, and any development occurring under the 2040 General Plan would be subject to compliance with these guidelines, as well as the applicable regulations set forth in the Lake Forest Municipal Code. The 2040 General Plan would therefore not substantially degrade the existing visual character or quality of public views of the Sphere of Influence and its surroundings. Scenic quality-related impacts associated with the 2040 General Plan implementation would thus be less than significant
The primary sources of daytime glare are generally sunlight reflecting from structures and other reflective surfaces and windows. Implementation of the 2040 General Plan would introduce new Item: 11
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sources of daytime glare into previously developed areas of the Planning Area and increase the amount of daytime glare in existing urbanized areas. The primary sources of nighttime lighting are generally from exterior building lights, street lights, and vehicle headlights. Nighttime lighting impacts would be most severe in areas that do not currently experience high levels of nighttime lighting. Increased nighttime lighting can reduce visibility of the night sky, resulting in fewer stars being visible and generally detracting from the quality of life in Lake Forest. This is considered a potentially significant impact, which would be mitigated to a less than significant level through the implementation of the policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

The Project does not propose site -specific development, but is rather an update to a policy document to comply with new laws and reinforce existing policy direction. The Housing Element Update proposes housing policies that would encourage housing production within the City.

However, potential development of vacant and underutilized sites to accommodate the City’s RHNA would be consistent with the adopted land use policy and would not result in any changes to existing land uses or allow for greater development than what was analyzed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. Future housing development, consistent with the 2040 General Plan, would be reviewed for consistency with policies and programs aimed to reduce potential impacts to aesthetic resources and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. The Housing Element policies and programs would not have an impact on existing 2040 General Plan policies protecting aesthetic and visual resources. The 2040 General Plan includes policies and programs to reduce potential impacts to scenic vista resources and to reduce impacts associated with light and glare as a result of new development.

The revisions to the Housing Element would not result in new aesthetic impacts beyond those identified in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. Following complian ce with the recommended 2040 General Plan FEIR mitigation measures and 2040 General Plan Policies, there would be no new significant or significantly different impacts to aesthetics as a result of the proposed Project. The Housing Element Update has been prepared to be consistent with the 2040 General Plan, and as such, there are no aesthetic impacts peculiar to the Housing Element that have not been fully addressed in the 2040 General Plan EIR.

II. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY RESOURCES
The 2040 General Plan FEIR determined that impacts to agriculture and forestry resources would be less than significant through the implementation of policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

There are approximately 140.3 acres of Important Farmlands located within the City, including

0.2 acres of Prime Farmland and 140.1 acres of Unique Farmland. The Prime Farmland area is currently developed with residential uses (Shea/Baker Ranch Project). The Unique Farmland is located in two nearby areas in the center of the City: one area west of Alton Parkway and south of State Route 241 (adjacent to the 0.2 acres of Prime Farmland), and one area east of Bake Parkway and south of Rancho Parkway. The Unique Farmland area west of Alton Parkway and south of State Route 241 is currently developed with residential uses (Shea/Baker Ranch Item: 11
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Project). The Unique Farmland area east of Bake Parkway and south of Rancho Parkway is known as the Nakase site, which is currently being developed with residential and public uses.

There are no lands within the Lake Forest Planning Area that are currently under a Williamson Act contract. As such, 2040 General Plan implementation would result in no impact to Williamson Act contracts.

There are 521.45 acres of land throughout the Planning Area that are zoned for agricultural use.

The City has one zoning district for agricultural uses: A1, Agriculture District. The A1 District is established to provide for agriculture, outdoor recreational uses, and those low intensity uses which have a pr edominately open space character. It is also intended that this district may be used as an interim zone in those areas which the 2040 General Plan may designate for more intensive urban uses in the future. The majority of the land zoned A1 is currently developed with urban uses or is currently designated for urban uses by both the existing and proposed Land Use Maps. There are some areas in Lake Forest zoned A1 that are not urbanized, but rather, are designated for Regional Park/Open Space uses on the Land Use Map. As previously described, all of the land within the Planning Area is planned for urban development in one form or another, with the exception of areas designated for Open Space or Regional Park/Open Space uses. It is assumed that the land within t he City zoned A1 and not designated for Open Space or Regional Park/Open Space uses will eventually be developed with urban land uses, consistent with the proposed Land Use Map. Given the purpose, intent, and flexibility of the established A1 Zoning District, the 2040 General Plan FEIR determined the proposed Land Use Map would not conflict with existing agricultural zoning in the City of Lake Forest.

There are no forest lands or timber lands located within the Lake Forest Planning Area. There are also no parcels that are currently zoned as forest land, timber, or timber production.

Therefore, implementation of the 2040 General Plan would have no impact on forest land, timber, or timber production.

The Project does not propose site -specific development, bu t is rather an update to a policy document to comply with new laws and reinforce existing policy direction. Potential development of vacant and underutilized sites to accommodate the City’s RHNA would be consistent with the adopted land use policy and would not result in any changes to existing land uses or affect any parcels under a Williamson Act contract. Future housing development, consistent with the 2040 General Plan, would be reviewed for consistency with policies and programs aimed to reduce potential impacts to agricultural and forestry resources and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. The Housing Element policies and programs would not have an impact on existing 2040 General Plan policies protecting agricultural and forestry resources.

The revisions to the Housing Element would not result in new agricultural or forestry resource impacts beyond those identified in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. Following compliance with the recommended 2040 General Plan FEIR mitigation measures and 2040 General Plan Policies, there would be no new significant or significantly different impacts to agriculture and forestry Item: 11
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resources as a result of the proposed Project. The Housing Element Update has been prepared to be consistent with the 2040 General Plan, and as such, there are no impacts to agriculture and forestry resources peculiar to the Housing Element that have not been fully addressed in the 2040 General Plan EIR.

III. AIR QUALITY
The 2040 General Plan FEIR determined that impacts to air quality would b e significant and unavoidable.

Future development in the City of Lake Forest that is consistent with the 2040 General Plan would increase vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that would result in emissions of ozone precursors and particulate matt er. Individual projects under the 2040 General Plan would be required to undergo subsequent environmental review pursuant to CEQA, and would be required to demonstrate compliance with the A ir Quality Management Plan (AQMP). Individual projects would also be required to demonstrate compliance with the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) rules and regulations governing air quality. The City of Lake Forest continues to coordinate with the SCAQMD and the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) to ensure citywide growth projections, land use planning efforts, and local development patterns are accounted for in the regional planning and air quality planning processes. Therefore, the operation of the 2040 General Plan would not conflict with or obstruct the implementation of the applicable air quality plan and impacts are less than significant.

Construction of the growth anticipated by the 2040 General Plan has the potential to temporarily emit criteria air pollutant emissions, and construction-related daily emissions would exceed the SCAQMD significance thresholds for VOCs. Future operations associated with growth anticipated by the 2040 General Plan would generate criteria air pollutant emissions from project-generated vehicle trips traveling within the City, energy sources such as natural gas combustion, and area sources such as landscaping equipment and consumer products usage. The exact level of construction emissions from the development anticipated by the 2040 General Plan cannot be quantified without full detail of the development projects to be implemented and the extent to which mitigation can be applied. Individual projects anticipated by the 2040 General Plan will be required to implement their own environmental review. The proposed policies and actions of the 2040 General Plan would potentially reduce emissions, which could potentially address impacts related to conflicts with an applicable air quality plan. With respect to operational emissions, future development under the 2040 General Plan would be required to comply with AQMP, SIP, CARB, SCAQMD regulations, Title 24 energy efficiency standards, and the proposed project policies and actions. However, as there is no way to determine the effectiveness of such regulations, policies, and actions for individual projects, it is impossible to determine if potential impacts would be reduced to below regulatory thresholds. While implementation of the 2040 General Plan policies and actions would reduce criteria pollutant emissions, the extent to which the impacts would have to be determined on a project-by-project basis, as necessary. Therefore, the 2040 General Plan FEIR determined this impact would be significant and unavoidable.

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Criteria air pollutant emissions have the potenti al to result in health impacts on sensitive receptors located near new development within the 2040 General Plan Planning Area. With respect to local air quality emissions, toxic air contaminant emissions, and health impacts, future development under the 2040 General Plan would be required to comply with AQMP, SIP, CARB, SCAQMD regulations, Title 24 energy efficiency standards, and the 2040 General Plan policies and actions. Implementation of the 2040 General Plan policies and actions would mitigate and reduce such emissions. However, the exact location, type, nature, and size of future projects that may expose sensitive receptors to pollutant concentrations cannot be calculated at this time, as the details of potential future projects are not currently known . As such, there is no way to determine the extent to which these regulations will be, or need to be, implemented, and it is impossible to determine if potential impacts would be reduced to below regulatory thresholds.

Additionally, there are no feasible m itigation measures beyond the policies and actions.

Therefore, the 2040 General Plan FEIR determined localized operational impacts, construction and operational health and toxic air impacts would remain significant and unavoidable.

With respect to other em issions, future development under the 2040 General Plan would be required to comply with AQMP, SIP, CARB, SCAQMD regulations, Title 24 energy efficiency standards, and the 2040 General Plan policies and actions. Implementation of the 2040 General Plan policies and actions would mitigate and reduce such emissions. However, the exact location, type, nature, and size of future projects that may expose sensitive receptors to pollutant concentrations cannot be calculated at this time, as the details of potential future projects are not currently known. As such, there is no way to determine the extent to which these regulations will be, or need to be, implemented, and it is impossible to determine if potential impacts would be reduced to below regulatory thresholds. Additionally, there are no feasible mitigation measures beyond the policies and actions listed below. Therefore, the 2040 General Plan FEIR determined localized operational impacts, construction and operational health and toxic air impacts would remain significant and unavoidable.

Future housing development, consis tent with the 2040 General Plan, would be reviewed for consistency with policies and programs aimed to reduce impacts to air quality and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. The Housing Element policies and programs would not have an impact on existing 2040 General Plan policies related to air quality.

The revisions to the Housing Element would not result in new air quality impacts beyond those identified in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. Following compliance with the recommended 2040 General Plan FEIR mitigation measures and 2040 General Plan Policies, there would be no new significant or significantly different impacts to air quality as a result of the proposed Project. The Housing Element Update has been prepared to be consistent with the 2040 General Plan, and as Item: 11
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such, there are no impacts to air quality peculiar to the Housing Element that have not been fully addressed in the 2040 General Plan EIR.

IV. BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES
The 2040 General Plan FEIR determined that impacts to biological resources would be less than significant through the implementation of policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

Implementation of the 2040 General Plan and Land Use Map would allow and facilitate future development in Lake Forest, which could result in adverse impacts to special- status plant and wildlife species, as well as sensitive natural habitat or wildlife movement corridors. While future development has the potential to result in significant impacts to protected special status plants and animals, including habitat, riparian habitat, wetlands and waters of the U.S. and wildlife movement corridors, the 2040 General Plan FEIR determined implementation of the policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan, as well as Federal and State regulations, would reduce impacts to these resources to a less than significant level.

The City of Lake Forest is a participant in the Orange County Central-Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan/Habitat Conservation Plan (NCCP/HCP). The 2040 General Plan Land Use Map does not re-designate any land currently designated for open space or habitat protection. As such, the 2040 General Plan and the Land Use Map are consistent with the adopted HCP/NCCP in terms of land uses and habitat protection. Implementation of the 2040 General Plan would not conflict with the provisions of an adopted HCP/NCCP, or other approved local, regional, or State habitat conservation plan. Future projects that do not comply with the Orange County Central -Coastal NCCP/HCP could result in potentially significant impacts, which would be mitigated to a less than significant level through the implementation of 2040 General Plan Action RR-5b.

The 2040 General Plan includes policies and programs to reduc e potential impacts to biological resources and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. Future housing development, consistent with the 2040 General Plan, would be reviewed for consistency with policies and programs aimed to reduce impacts to biolog ical resources and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. The Housing Element policies and programs would not have an impact on existing 2040 General Plan policies protecting biological resources.

The revisions to the Housing Element would not result in new biological resource impacts beyond those identified in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. Following compliance with the recommended 2040 General Plan FEIR mitigation measures and 2040 General Plan Policies, there would be no new significant or signifi cantly different impacts to biological resources as a result of the proposed Project. The Housing Element Update has been prepared to be consistent with the 2040 Item: 11
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General Plan, and as such, there are no impacts to biological resources peculiar to the Housin g Element that have not been fully addressed in the 2040 General Plan EIR.

V. CULTURAL RESOURCES
The 2040 General Plan FEIR determined that impacts to cultural and tribal cultural resources would be less than significant through the implementation of polic ies and actions in the 2040 General Plan.

While the 2040 General Plan does not directly propose any adverse changes to any historic or archaeological resources, future development allowed under the 2040 General Plan could affect known historical and archae ological resources or unknown historical and archaeological resources which have not yet been identified. As future development and infrastructure projects are considered by the City, each project will be evaluated for conformance with the City’s 2040 General Plan , Municipal Code, and other applicable State and local regulations. Subsequent development and infrastructure projects would also be analyzed for potential environmental impacts, consistent with the requirements of CEQA. The 2040 General Plan includes policies and actions that would reduce impacts to cultural, historic, and archaeological resources, as well as policies and actions for the conservation of cultural, historic, and archaeological resources, which would ensure that adverse effects on sig nificant historic and archaeological resources are reduced to a less than significant level.

Excavation and construction activities allowed under the 2040 General Plan may yield human remains that may not be marked in formal burials. Future projects may disturb or destroy buried Native American human remains, including those interred outside of formal cemeteries. As future development and infrastructure projects are considered by the City, each project will be evaluated for conformance with the City’s 2040 General Plan , Municipal Code, and other applicable State and local regulations. Subsequent development and infrastructure projects would also be analyzed for potential environmental impacts, consistent with the requirements of CEQA. Implementation of the policies and actions in the 2040 General Plan ensures that potential adverse impacts to human remains would be less than significant.

The Housing Element Update proposes housing policies that would encourage housing production within the Planning Area . However, potential development of vacant and underutilized sites to accommodate the City’s RHNA would be consistent with the adopted land use policy and would not result in any changes to existing land uses or allow for greater development than what was analyzed in the 2040 General Plan FEIR. The 2040 General Plan includes policies and programs to reduce potential impacts to historic and archeological resources and human remains, including Native American artifacts. Future housing development, consistent with the 2040 General Plan, would be reviewed for consistency with policies and programs aimed to reduce potential impacts to cultural resources and implement mitigation measures, as appropriate. The Housing Element policies and programs would not have an impact on existing 2040 General Plan policies protecting cultural resources.

Lake Forest City CouncilJanuary 3, 2023

Lake Forest City Council
January 3, 2023