2024 LHMP — Lancaster City Council, April 8, 2025 (part 2 of 2)

Wildfire Mitigation
Federal Programs
The role of the federal land managing agencies in the wildland / urban interface is to reduce fuel hazards on the lands they administer; cooperate in prevention and education programs; provide technical and financial assistance; and develop agreements, partnerships and relationships with property owners, local protection agencies, states and other stakeholders. These relationships focus on activities before a fire occurs, which render structures and communities safer and better able to survive a fire occurrence.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Programs
FEMA is directly responsible for providing fire suppression assistance grants and, in certain cases, major disaster assistance and hazard mitigation grants in response to fires. The role of FEMA in the wildland / urban interface is to encourage comprehensive disaster preparedness plans and programs, increase the capability of state and local governments and provide for a greater understanding of FEMA programs at the federal, state and local levels.

Fire Suppression Assistance Grants
Fire Suppression Assistance Grants may be provided to a state with an approved hazard mitigation plan for the suppression of a forest or grassland fire that threatens to become a major disaster on public or private lands. These grants are provided to protect life and improved property as well as encourage the development and implementation of viable multi-hazard mitigation measures. The grant may include funds for equipment, supplies and personnel. A Fire Suppression Assistance Grant is the form of assistance most often provided by FEMA to a state for fires. The grants are cost-shared with states. FEMA’s Fire Administration (USFA) provides public education materials addressing wildland / urban interface issues and the USFA's National Fire Academy provides training programs.

Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
Following a major disaster declaration, the FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program provides funding for long- term hazard mitigation projects and activities to reduce the possibility of damages from all future fire hazards and to reduce the costs to the nation for responding to and recovering from the disaster.

2024 City of Lancaster
Hazard Mitigation Plan

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National Wildland / Urban Interface Fire Protection Program Federal agencies can use the National Wildland/Urban Interface Fire Protection Program to focus on wildland / urban interface fire protection issues and actions. The Western Governors' Association (WGA) can act as a catalyst to involve state agencies, as well as local and private stakeholders, with the objective of developing an implementation plan to achieve a uniform, integrated national approach to hazard and risk assessment and fire prevention and protection in the wildland / urban interface. The program helps states develop viable and comprehensive wildland fire mitigation plans and performance-based partnerships.

U.S. Forest Service
The U.S. Forest Service (USFS) is involved in a fuel-loading program implemented to assess fuels and reduce hazardous buildup on forest lands. The USFS is a cooperating agency and, while it has little to no jurisdiction in the lower valleys, it has an interest in preventing fires in the interface, as fires often burn up the hills and into the higher elevation US forest lands.

Los Angeles County Fire Department
First Responders
The City of Lancaster is located in Division 5 – North Regional Operations Bureau of the LA County Fire Department’s Regional Plan Divisions. Battalion 11 of the Los Angeles County Fire Department is assigned to directly serve the greater Lancaster region. The Antelope Valley Division Headquarters are located at 42110 6th Street West, Lancaster, CA 93534.

Operating 9 divisions and 22 battalions, LACoFD answers approximately 400,000 emergency calls annually.

The Department currently has 177 fire stations, 75 paramedic squads, 9 wildland fire suppression camps, 10 bulldozers, 10 helicopters, 23 Prevention Offices, 12 Forestry Units and numerous other response vehicles and facilities. It serves 58 incorporated cities, as well as the unincorporated areas of the County. Additionally, the Department has Planning, Information Management, Lifeguard, and Health Hazardous Materials Divisions which provide valuable services to the more than 4.0 million people who reside in the 1.2 million housing units located throughout the Department’s 2,311 square mile area. The LACoFD is one of six Contract Counties that maintain a contractual relationship with California Department of Forestry and utilizes the California Fire Plan within Los Angeles County as the primary wildland fire protection plan.

Other Agencies
It is important to work with other organizations and agencies to create a more comprehensive Hazard Mitigation Plan. There are numerous agencies with which Division VII of the LACoFD works closely, including but not limited to:

Political Entity Jurisdiction
Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department Local Government/ Law Enforcement City of Los Angeles Local Government/LRA Fire Protection Public Utility Companies State/County
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection State/County Table 54: Political Entities that Coordinate with the LACoFD to Mitigate the Threat of Fire

2024 City of Lancaster
Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Fire Prevention Division
The City of Lancaster is part of the LACoFD Fire Prevention Central Region. Fire prevention and code enforcement in this area historically requires concentrated efforts related to water supplies for fire protection and vehicular access for fire apparatus. Geographic and terrain limitations as well as the lack of water supply in mountainous terrain present challenges that LACoFD Inspectors review and inspect, often times providing alternative solutions for the owners/occupants to consider.

Special Operations Bureau
The Special Operations Bureau provides highly technical operational functions to County residents including Emergency Medical Services, Urban Search and Rescue, Hazardous Materials, Air Operations, Fire Camps for wildland firefighting, Heavy Equipment and central Dispatch.

Fire Prevention Programs
The Los Angeles County Fire Department manages an active effort in order to prevent the possibility of a wildfire occurring within the City of Lancaster Region. The following list provides a sample of the programs, activities and practices.

Prescribed Burning
The health and condition of brush will determine the magnitude of wildfire. The LACoFD does practice prescribed burning. If fuels (slash, dry or dead vegetation, fallen limbs and branches) are allowed to accumulate over long periods of time without being methodically cleared, fire can move more quickly and destroy everything in its path. The results are more catastrophic than if the fuels are periodically eliminated. Prescribed burning is the most efficient method to remove these fuels.

Pre-Fire Management Plan
As a preventative measure, the LACoFD also implements a Pre-Fire Management Plan whose overall goal is to reduce the total cost and losses from wildland fires in California by protecting assets at risk through focused pre-fire management prescriptions and increased initial attacks.

Fuel Modification Plan
The Fuel Modification Plan is part of the Forestry Division of the LACoFD. This publication was prepared to establish a set of guidelines and landscape criteria for all new construction relating to fuel modification planning that will reduce the threat of fire in high hazard areas.

Vegetation Management Program
The Vegetation Management Program (VMP) is a cost-sharing program that focuses on the use of prescribed fire, mechanical, biological and chemical means for addressing wildland fire fuel hazards and other resource management issues on State Responsibility Area (SRA) and Local Responsibility Area (LRA) lands. The use of prescribed fire mimics natural processes, restores fire to its historic role in wildland ecosystems, and provides significant fire hazard reduction benefits that enhance public and firefighter safety.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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The Los Angeles County Fire Department created the Vegetation Management Program in 1979 to develop strategies for responding to the growing fire hazard problem. These include:
 An ongoing effort to analyze the history of wildland fires in Los Angeles County  Experimentation with different methods of reducing and removing fuels in fire prone areas  Evaluation of the environmental impacts and effects of these practices 
Brush Clearance Inspection Program
Mandated by the LA County Fire Code, all property owners in the region are presently required to maintain a firebreak around and adjacent to all buildings and structures by removing all flammable vegetation or other combustible growth for a minimum distance of 200 feet from the structure or to the property line, whichever is closer.

The Brush Clearance Program is a joint effort between the Los Angeles County Fire Department and the County of Los Angeles Department of Agricultural Commissioner/Weights and Measures, Weed Hazard and Pest Abatement Bureau (Weed Abatement Division). This unified enforcement legally declares both improved and unimproved properties a public nuisance, and where necessary, requires the clearance of hazardous vegetation. These measures create “Defensible Space” for effective fire protection of property, life and the environment. The Department’s Brush Clearance Unit enforces the Fire Codes as it relates to brush clearance on improved parcels, coordinates inspections and compliance efforts with fire station personnel, and provides annual brush clearance training to fire station personnel.

Fire Retardant Foam
All the Los Angeles County Fire Department fire engines are equipped with fire retardant foam capability.

This type of program demonstrates the value of pre-suppression and prevention efforts when combined with property owner support to mitigate hazards within the wildland / urban interface.

Fire Codes
Fire codes have been amended throughout the years to assist fire department personnel with wildland firefighting in the rural/urban interface zones. Building construction in these areas may have additional requirements for non-combustible construction components and water supplies. Inspectors assigned to these regional offices provide developers and homeowners with information for fire safe construction and fire protection systems.

Building Codes
The City of Lancaster complies with the County of Los Angeles fire codes.

Public Education and Involvement
The Fire Prevention Division within the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) focuses on educating the community about the benefits of proper safety practices and identifying and eliminating all types of hazardous conditions, which pose a threat to life, the environment and property.

2024 City of Lancaster
Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Lancaster Wildfire Mitigation Strategies
The City of Lancaster recognizes the potential fire dangers along the urban / wildland interfaces as well as structures inside the city, and has enacted the following policies to regulate development within potential natural fire hazard areas and to ensure that adequate fire facilities are available in order to ensure that life and property are protected:
 Fire Prevention
o In cooperation with the Los Angeles County Fire Department, Lancaster conducts an annual assessment of fire prevention and suppression services, evaluates the adequacy of facilities and equipment serving the City; the status and adequacy of mutual aid agreements; personnel staffing and program needs; and equipment, facility, and staffing needs based on anticipated growth, level of service, and incident rates.
o In cooperation with the Los Angeles County Fire Department, Lancaster has established a program to monitor the effectiveness of fire prevention and education programs and to identify sources of funding for such programs.
 Planning and Construction
o Involves fire department personnel in the development review process for all new development proposals through participation in the Development Review Committee and by referring development requests to the Los Angeles County Fire Department for review and comment. o Ensures that the design of new development minimizes the potential for fire. o Requires the use of fire resistant roofs in residential developments. o In conjunction with the Los Angeles County Fire Department, reviews the adequacy of ordinances requiring fire sprinklers, and continues with the practice of requiring fire sprinklers in residential structures as required by the Los Angeles County Fire Code.  Community Education
o Works with the Los Angeles County Fire Department and local school districts to maintain educational programs aimed at preventing fires.
o Publishes articles on fire prevention. Utilizes the various media resources as addressed in the City’s Communications Master Plan.
o Has created outreach and education programs aimed at mitigating wildfire hazards and reducing or preventing the exposure of citizens, public agencies, private property owners and businesses to natural hazards.
o Works to increase communication, coordination and collaboration between wildland / urban interface property owners, local and county planners and fire prevention crews and officials to address risks, existing mitigation measures and federal assistance programs. o Encourages the implementation of wildfire mitigation activities in a manner consistent with the goals of promoting sustainable ecological management and community stability.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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SECTION 10: FLOOD
The Nature of Flood Threat
The City of Lancaster has a relatively flat topography and is surrounded by the San Gabriel and Sierra Pelona mountains to the south and the Tehachapi Mountains to the north in the Antelope Valley. The Antelope Valley itself is geographically unique since it has no outlet to the Pacific Ocean, which restricts the removal of runoff to percolation or evaporation. Numerous streams originate in the mountains and foothills surrounding the Antelope Valley, and flow across the Valley floor and eventually pond in the dry lakes near Edwards Air Force Base.

Following short-term, low intensity rainfall, deep deposits of permeable sands absorb nearly all runoff by percolation as it flows out of the San Gabriel Mountains. However, following major storms, the sands become saturated and runoff from the mountains flows northward across the valley, sometimes overflowing natural drainage channels. Flash flooding or extended periods of rain can cause drainage channels such as Amargosa Creek and Little Rock Wash to overflow. Runoff also occurs over paved surfaces within the City and flows toward low-lying areas to the north.23
Lancaster and the Antelope Valley have experienced flooding in the past from winter storm events. Flooding poses a threat to life and safety and can cause severe damage to public and private property. Flooding is a factor in the Antelope Valley due to the natural mountainous terrain surrounding the valley, the types of soil deposits, and changes in the landscape.

Historical Record of Flooding
History of Flooding in Southern California
Historically, the region has experienced extended periods (on the order of years) of either wet or dry weather.

Additionally, in any given year the amount of precipitation can vary widely. FEMA has classified the following events in California to be significant floods. A significant event is defined by FEMA as 1,500 or more in paid losses. The table below provides a summary of significant flood and flash flood events in Southern California since 2016.

Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

12.31.2022 -

1.1.2023
A potent storm moved in late on 12.31.2022
and continued into 1.1.2023. The heaviest
band of rain straddled the region just as the
clock struck midnight. Many mountain
locations recorded over 4” of precipitation,
mostly rain. Lytle Creek took top honors with

5.85”. Lower elevations generally got 1-2”,
but Coto de Caza overachieved with 3.62”.

Street and stream flooding was observed in many
areas and was particularly serious next to the Fairview burn scar south of Hemet.

23 City of Lancaster Emergency Operations Plan 2010

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

12.11-12.2022
An atmospheric river was steered into
Southern California by a deep trough and
brought heavy rain, ranging from 0.50-2” in
the lowlands, generally 2- 4” in the mountains
(except outlier Lytle Creek with 5.03”), and

0.03” to about one-third inch in the deserts.

Areas of urban flooding developed, and swift-water
rescues were made in Ontario and Anaheim.

11.8-9.2022
A deep trough of low pressure with copious
moisture brought heavy rain to the region.

Total rainfall amounted to 1 to 2” coast and
valleys, and 3 to 5” in the mountains. A peak
of 9” was recorded in Lytle Creek.

Heavy rain resulted in urban flooding, including three
fatalities in a channel in Cucamonga creek.

9.9-12.2022
Moisture from remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Kay brought precipitable water measured at

2.35” inches, a record level for September
and the second wettest all-time in the
sounding record back to 1956. Rainfall
ranged from 2 to 6” from the Anza Borrego
Desert to Mt. Laguna on 9.9. Thunderstorms
erupted in the mountains and desert and
Inland Empire from 9.10 to 9.12. Including
one storm producing a rain rate of 2.44” in
one hour at Raywood Flats on 9.12.

On 9.12, flash floods and debris flows flowed into
Forest Falls and Oak Glen, where 30 homes and
businesses were damaged. Search and rescue
operations found all missing persons but one, a woman
who was killed in Forest Falls. 14 evacuees spent at
least one night at a Red Cross shelter. Several roads
and highways in this area were blocked by debris and
closed. Other massive debris flows, including large
trees and boulders, flowed down Banning and Mias
Canyons above Banning. Flash floods were also
reported in Barona and Temescal Valley.

8.13.2022 Thunderstorms hit the San Bernardino
Mountains. 2.28” at Yucaipa Ridge.

The rain came in a short time and triggered debris
flows and flash floods into Forest Falls.

8.8.2022
Heavy thunderstorms struck Mt. San Jacinto.

1.98” fell. A heavy thunderstorm complex
struck the southern Anza Borrego Desert. Its
giant anvil plume with light rain spread all the
way to the coast across much of the San
Diego metro area.

A serious flash flood in Chino Canyon closed the Palm
Springs Tram and stranded visitors for a time. Another
flash flood took out part of Highway S2 in the Anza
Borrego Desert.

7.31.2022
Numerous heavy thunderstorms struck the El
Dorado burn scar (above Yucaipa). Rainfall
intensities exceeded 1” in 1 hour and a
couple approached 2” per hour. Some
weakening thunderstorms managed to drift
across southern Orange County to the coast.

Significant flash floods and debris flows that closed
parts of highway 38 near Angelus Oaks for days.

Storms in the high desert led to several flash floods.

12.28-30.2021
A wet and powerful storm struck the region,
with emphasis on Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties, where rainfall ranged from 3 and 7
inches with local amounts up to 9 inches in
the mountains. 2 to 5 inches fell in far
western San Bernardino County.

Flooding of streets filled with water to the curbs in Seal Beach. Boulders fell onto Highway 138 in Crestline.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

12.23-24.2021
A series of storms paraded through the
region, each bringing heavy rain during late
December. Two-day totals for this storm
reached 6” in the mountains, but Lytle Creek
alone achieved just over 8”. The northern
Inland Empire got 2-5”, while most other
lower elevation stations received 0.75-3”.

Even parts of the lower deserts got more
than one inch.

Several mountain roadways were washed out,
including Highways 18 and 243. Flooding was
observed in the Mojave River in Hesperia, along Indian
Canyon Road near Palm Springs, in San Bernardino, in
Cherry Valley just below the Apple Fire burn scar, and
in nearby Oak Glen. Debris flows inundated parts of
Silverado Canyon within the Bond Fire burn scar.

12.14.2021
A significant winter storm brought heavy rain
to lower elevations. 5 to 6” of rain fell on the
southwest slopes of the San Gabriel and San
Bernardino Mountains, with Lytle Creek
singularly achieving 7.06”.

Several debris flows occurred, in the Bond Fire burn
scar in eastern Orange County and below the Apple
Fire burn scar near Beaumont. Localized flooding was
common across the region. Rocks and debris closed
some mountain highways.

10.25.2021
A significant storm for October tapped into a
weakening atmospheric river to bring over 2”
of rain to parts of the San Bernardino
Mountains. 1-2” were common in the
mountains, while 0.25- 1” was common at
lower elevations, including the high desert.

The rain combined with vulnerable burn scars to
produce rock slides, mud and debris flows that closed
off several highways in the mountains. These closures
were near Big Bear Dam, Oak Glen and Forest Falls.

8.10.2021
A mesoscale convective system (organized
thunderstorms) produced heavy showers and
thunderstorms in the desert, mountains and
even to the coast near San Diego. San Felipe
received 2.49”, Ranchita 2.27”, and Mason
Valley 1.84”.

Flash flooding occurred all around Borrego Valley,
Desert Research Institute, Airport, Coyote Canyon and
adjacent citrus tree fields.

7.30.2021
A surge of monsoon moisture produced
numerous heavy thunderstorms across the
mountains. Rain rates of 1.0 to 1.5 inches per
hour were observed in the heavier storms.

Several flash floods and debris flows occurred,
particularly on the El Dorado Fire burn scar along
Highway 38 near Angelus Oaks.

7.26.2021
Widespread showers and thunderstorms hit
the entire region, even to the coast. Many
locations in mountains and deserts received
over one inch of rainfall, with Lake Cuyamaca
topping the list at 2.32”, Indio 1.60” and Apple
Valley 1.34”. West of the mountains, amounts
ranged from 0.01” to 0.83” inch at Rincon
Springs. Distribution was not uniform in any
respect.

A flash flood spread sand and rocks across Dillon Road
and Ramon Road near Thousand Palms. Several Indio
streets were flooded with water.

3.11.2021
A powerful storm contained a heavy burst of
rain in eastern Orange County that struck the
Bond Fire burn scar in Silverado Canyon.

0.20 inch of rain fell in 15 minutes.

A debris flow went over roads and into homes,
damaging six homes and eight vehicles in Silverado.

The flow also closed a stretch of Silverado Canyon
Road.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

1.28-29.2021
A powerful winter storm and atmospheric
river brought heavy rain. 4 to10 inches fell
across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties, 2 to 6 inches fell in Ventura County
and 1 to 4 inches fell in Los Angeles County.

1.5 inches of rain fell across Santiago
Canyon in eastern Orange County.

Many areas flooded, including Santiago Canyon where
mud and debris flows covered roads and damaged
homes. A vehicle got stuck in floodwaters in Perris,
prompting a water rescue. 8 people were trapped in a
flooding storm drain between Otay Mesa and San
Ysidro. 7 were helped to safety, but one perished.

4.8-10.2020
A warm front moved through the region on
4/8 and brought waves of showers from
south to north. Following the warm front, an
upper low moved into the California Bight and
stalled on 4/9, bringing 3 to 5 inches of rain to
Orange County and San Diego County
through 4/10. Many locations recorded their
highest daily rainfall record: San Diego
(1.98"), Chula Vista (1.56"), and Vista (3.18").

Oceanside Harbor recorded their wettest 24-
hours on record with 3.06". Six-day storm
totals were 3 to 7 inches along the coast and
valleys, 4 to 8 inches with locally 10 in the
mountains, and 1 to 2 inches in the deserts.

Rainfall in San Diego County was 3-4” inches
in a 24 hour period. All-time daily rainfall
records were broken on 4/10 in Oceanside
and Vista, each recording over 3”. Monthly
rainfall records were broken for April at those
locations, each receiving over 6” in just six
days.

Numerous flash floods and floods resulted. Flood
waters combined with mud, boulders and debris in
Bonsall, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Vista, Pacific Beach, Del Mar, Valley Center, Rancho Penasquitos
and several spots in Mission Valley. Highway 78, a
major freeway corridor between Oceanside and
Escondido, was closed in both directions from flooding
on adjacent Buena Vista Creek. Numerous swift-water
rescues were made all across San Diego County. The
San Diego River at Fashion Valley reached a peak of

12.5 feet.

3.12.2020
An atmospheric river brought heavy rain and
thunderstorms, especially to the deserts
where 1 to 2 inches fell. 550 lightning strikes
occurred.

Flash flooding was observed near Canebrake, Borrego
Springs, Lakeview, Riverside, Corona, parts of the
Coachella Valley, Apple Valley. A mudslide occurred
near Pinyon Pines. A road was eroded near Mentone.

Water rescues happened in Glen Avon and Corona.

12.26.2019
A powerful winter storm brought intense rain
and thunderstorms that measured 1 to 3.5
inches from the coast to the mountains.

Flooding of intersections and low lying areas were
widely observed during the most intense rainfall,
including in San Marcos and Mission Valley. Vehicle
rescues were needed.

11.28.2019
9 A powerful storm struck the region on this
Thanksgiving Day. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3
inches fell at the coast and in the valleys.

Numerous roadways were damaged from flooding and
erosion. There was a large boulder on Ortega highway
and a sinkhole in Redlands. A swift-water rescue was
needed in National City. An RV park in La Mesa was
heavily damaged.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

9.2.2019
Nocturnal thunderstorms migrated from the
east and hit the Coachella Valley early in the
morning this Labor Day. Other thunderstorms
struck the mountains that afternoon. Sky
Oaks was the standout, receiving 2.71
inches, while many other mountain locations
received 0.50 to 1.50 inches.

Several flash floods impacted the Coachella Valley.

2.14.2019
A major atmospheric river pummeled
Southern California with heavy rain. Many
mountain locales recorded 8 to 10 inches of
rain, with Palomar Mountain recording over
10 inches. Palm Springs recorded 3.69
inches, the third wettest day on record.

Flash flooding resulted with damage to roads. High
snow levels resulted in flooding in the San Bernardino
Mountains. Flash flooding and debris flows occurred at
and below the Holy Fire burn scar near Lake Elsinore.

Highways ripped out by water and debris on both sides
of Mt. San Jacinto were closed for weeks for major
repairs.

1.15.2019
A winter storm brought a band of very heavy
rain to northwest Orange County. Seal
Beach, Huntington Beach and Fountain
Valley each reported roughly 2 inches of rain
in 2 hours.

The intense rain produced flash flooding. Water was up
to doorways outside of homes, and the Pacific Coast
Highway was closed for over a day in Huntington
Beach.

9.30.2018
Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rosa
advanced into Southern California, bringing
rain and widespread thunderstorms to the
region, particularly the mountains and
deserts. In the Coachella Valley, a strong
thunderstorm accumulated up to 3.5” of rain
in 2 hours near Mecca.

One fatality resulted from the storm near Mecca. An
individual was swept away on Box Canyon road.

1.9.2018
A potent winter storm struck Southern
California. Intense rainfall around Santa
Barbara and Ventura measured as high as

0.54 inches in 5 minutes.

A 15-foot deadly mud and debris flow hit the
community of Montecito, around the burn scar of the
Thomas fire. 23 lost their lives, 128 residences were
destroyed, and 307 others were damaged. Highway
101 was closed for days due to the mud and debris.

9.9.2017
Thunderstorms struck the deserts with heavy
rains, including a daily record of 1.20 inches
at Palm Springs.

Intense flash flooding in Palm Springs and Cathedral
City, where structures throughout the city were flooded and roads were covered in debris. At Palm Springs
High School, 31 classrooms were inundated. Major
flood damage also occurred at a mobile home park.

8.12.2017 Two giant supercell thunderstorms unleashed
their fury on the Anza Borrego Desert.

Flash flooding and wind damage occurred around Agua
Caliente Springs and Canebrake.

8.1.2017
Numerous monsoon thunderstorms struck
the valleys. 1.56 inches fell in Alpine in a
short period.

Flash flooding, downed trees and power outages were
reported in Corona, Perris, San Bernardino, Temecula,
and Alpine.

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts

2.27-28.2017
An atmospheric river storm struck mainly San
Diego County with 2-9 inches of rainfall in 24
hours. The San Diego River in Mission Valley
crested at 14.15 feet, the third highest stage
all-time.

Numerous roadways were closed, the Fashion Valley
Mall parking structure was closed and the Fashion
Valley Transit Center was closed to bus traffic.

Numerous water rescues were conducted along the
San Diego River including 20 people rescued from
hotels in Mission Valley. Many vehicles were also
flooded and destroyed.

1.19-23.2017
A series of three winter storms hit during five
days. Total rainfall reached 10-13 inches
along the coastal slopes from San
Bernardino to San Diego County. Over the
coast and valleys 2-7 inches of rain occurred
with 0.5-3 inches in the deserts.

Widespread flooding, including damage to homes and
businesses and numerous stranded vehicles in several
feet of water. Dozens of high water rescues were
made, 29 in San Diego County on 1.20 alone. One boy
was swept away to his death in floodwaters in
Rainbow. The governor declared a State of Emergency
in San Diego County.

7.1.2016
Strong thunderstorms formed over the
Mojave Desert and San Bernardino
Mountains. Up to three inches of rain fell
between Helendale and Victorville. This was
the only significant round of thunderstorms.

Significant flash flooding that forced closure of Highway 66 near Bryman.

1.5-7.2016
A strong, low latitude jet stream brought a
series of storms through Southern California
with periods of moderate to heavy rain.

Three-day rainfall totals were around 2-7” for
the coast, valley and foothill areas, and 1- 3”
for the deserts. After several years of
drought, this was the only precipitation event
of significance during an otherwise
disappointing strong El Niño season.

Flooding resulted nearly everywhere, with
southwestern San Diego County being hardest hit.

Floods buried cars in Ocean Beach and Mission Valley.

High water rescues occurred on 1.6 around San Diego.

Small mudslides, including boulders on highways were
reported near Ramona, Redlands, Crestline, Orange,
Rancho San Diego and De Luz. Three debris flows in
Silverado Canyon below a burn scar.

Table 55: Significant Flood Events in Southern California 2016 – 2023

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Significant Floods in the Lancaster Region
Repetitive Loss
The Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) is authorized by Section 1366 of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (NFIA), 42 U.S.C. 4104c, with the goal of reducing or eliminating claims under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

FMA was created as part of the National Flood Insurance Reform Act (NFIRA) of 1994. The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Act of 2012 (Public Law 112-141) consolidated the Repetitive Flood Loss and Severe Repetitive Loss grant programs into FMA. FMA funding is available through the National Flood Insurance Fund (NFIF) for flood hazard mitigation projects as well as plan development and is appropriated by Congress.

Additionally, the Swift Current is a grant opportunity under the FMA grant program posted on Nov 14, 2023.

The FMA grant program makes federal funds available to states, U.S. territories, federally recognized Tribal governments, and local governments to reduce or eliminate the risk of repetitive flood damage to buildings and structures insured under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), and within NFIP-participating communities. Swift Current funds Individual Flood Mitigation Projects for Flood Mitigation Assistance and/or NFIP-defined Repetitive Loss (RL), Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL), or properties deemed Substantially Damaged after the applicant’s disaster declaration incident period start date.

In terms of the Lancaster area, a review of the City’s records indicated that there have been no repetitive loss properties. However there have been a limited number of flood claims (see NFIP Claims section for details). The City built two retention basins to reduce the risk and mitigate the impact of flooding (see Annex E: FIRM and Flood Control Basins for retention basin information and maps).

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Severe Repetitive Losses
The Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) grant program was authorized by the Bunning-Bereuter-Blumenauer Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2004, which amended the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 to provide funding to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of flood damage to severe repetitive loss (SRL) structures insured under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The definition of severe repetitive loss as applied to this program was established in section 1361A of the national Flood Insurance Act, as amended (NFIA), 42 U.S.C. 4102a. An SRL property is defined as a residential property that is covered under an NFIP flood insurance policy and:
(a) That has at least four (4) NFIP claim payments (including building and contents) over $5,000 each, and the cumulative amount of such claims payments exceeds $20,000; or (b) For which at least two separate claims payments (building payments only) have been made with the cumulative amount of the building portion of such claims exceeding the market value of the building.

For both (a) and (b) above, at least two of the referenced claims must have occurred within any ten-year period and must be greater than ten (10) days apart.

Map 35: Flood Hazard Areas

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Causes and Characteristics of Floods
A flood, as defined by the National Flood Insurance Program, is: A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties from:
overflow of inland or tidal waters or unusual or rapid accumulation of runoff of surface waters from any source or mudflow.

Flooding may occur as a result of sustained heavy rainfall, microbursts, (short periods of large volumes of rain) large wave activity on the coast, or reservoir / dam failure. A “100-Year Recurrence Interval” is defined as a flood that according to historical data has a probability of occurrence once in 100-years. This benchmark used by FEMA to establish a regulatory baseline for all flooding events. Similar benchmarks are defined for 25, 50, and 500 year events.

Annual Precipitation
Rainfall in Lancaster averages 5 inches per year and snowfall averages 1 inch per year. However, the term “average” is misleading because over the recorded history of rainfall and snowfall in the region, amounts have ranged from no precipitation at all in some years to well over normal averages in very wet years.

Furthermore, actual rainfall in Southern California tends to fall in large amounts during sporadic and often heavy storms rather than in consistent amounts throughout the year (See Community Profile Section for additional details).

Flash Floods
Much of the Lancaster area is prone to floods due to its flat topography and proximity to the San Gabriel and
Sierra Pelona Mountains. While Lancaster receives an
average of five (5) inches of rain per year, the
San Gabriel Mountains receive an average of twenty
(20) inches. The San Gabriel and Sierra Pelona
Mountains prevent many Pacific Ocean storms from
crossing into the Antelope Valley, but mountain storm
runoff drains from the mountain ranges into alluvial fans that cross the Antelope Valley and drain into the dry lake beds at Edwards Air Force Base. During normal rainfall
events, deposits of permeable sands absorb nearly all
runoff by percolation as it flows out of the mountains.

Following major storms or during periods of extended
rainfall the sands become saturated and sometimes
overflow natural drainage channels. Flash flooding or
extended periods of rain can cause drainage channels such as Amargosa Creek and Little Rock Wash to overflow.

Lancaster has created a flood abatement program for its developed areas to ensure that structures designed for human occupancy within the 100‐year floodplain comply with the City’s flood plain ordinance. The program has also identified undeveloped or vacant land within 100 ‐year floodplains and retained them as very low density rural use areas or open space where plans for construction of flood control facilities are absent.

Figure 28: Amargosa Creek Flood 1969
SOURCE: Water Resources Collections and Archives,
University of Riverside, California and California State University, San Bernardino

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Local drainage problems and flooding in Lancaster generally occur along natural tributaries. The City’s flooding may be reduced by the California Aqueduct drainage crossings. Runoff originating in the Sierra Pelona and San Gabriel Mountains must cross under the aqueduct before entering the City. Storm flows in the undeveloped portions of the study area are generally channeled through wide, north-south swales until intercepted by various flood control channels or natural creek beds. Sheet flooding can occur when the capacities of washes and dry stream beds are exceeded. However, sheet flooding can also occur due to factors unrelated to the overflow of washes and stream beds, such as runoff directed across level basin areas.24 The following tributaries constitute natural flood hazards within the City of Lancaster:

Tributary Details
Amargosa Creek Amargosa Creek collects runoff from the Sierra Pelona Mountains and San Andreas Rift Zone at the southwest end of the Antelope Valley. The Creek initially flows eastward and then changes directions near State Route 14 (SR-14) and meanders northerly through Palmdale and Lancaster. The Creek eventually terminates at Rosamond Dry Lake.

Anaverde Creek Anaverde Creek collects runoff from the Sierra Pelona Mountains and flows northeasterly through Anaverde Valley. Flow is collected in the Lockheed Drainage Channel on the U.S. Air Force Base Flight Production Center (Plant 42) and held in a retention basin. Flow that exceeds the capacity of the retention basin eventually confluences with Amargosa Creek.

Little Rock Creek Little Rock Creek begins at the outflow of Little Rock Dam and consists of runoff from the San Gabriel Mountains in Little Rock Canyon. The Creek passes west of the community of Littlerock and travels in a northerly direction to Rosamond Dry Lake.

Neenach Wash This wash collects runoff from La Liebre Rancho and travels due east until it merges with runoff from the Fairmont Wash.

Fairmont Wash This wash collects runoff from Broad Canyon in Portal Ridge and from the Fairmont and Antelope Buttes. The wash flows north until reaching Avenue D, where it changes to an easterly direction and eventually reaches Rosamond Dry Lake.

Table 56: Lancaster Major Tributaries
SOURCE: Emergency Operations Plan 2010
Stakeholder Input and Participation
To identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences of a major flood on the Lancaster Region, each member of the Planning Group provided their input during planning meetings (see Annex D: Lancaster HMP Planning Meetings) and follow-up discussions. Specific topics of discussion included if any hazard priorities have changed since the previous HMP, how changes in the community have impacted the risk of each hazard, and what new mitigation actions can be taken. In addition, each member of the Planning Group as well as members of the public provided the input via online surveys (see Annex B: Public Emergency Preparedness and Risk Survey, Annex C: Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey, and Annex D:

Planning and Public Involvement).

Flood Hazard Identification
Flooding occurs when climate, geology, and hydrology combine to create conditions where water flows outside of its usual course. As described earlier, due to the topography of the Antelope Valley, there is a potential for flooding throughout the entire area. Furthermore, due to continued growth and economic development, the region’s storm water collection and conveyance system may become overwhelmed.

24 Lancaster General Plan 2030

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Storm Events
Because Lancaster is situated at the far west of the Mojave Desert it experiences monsoons that form between July and September. The North American Monsoon is a result of a shift in wind patterns during the summer as northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States warm and wind patterns shift from the westerly to southerly, bringing cool moisture from the tropics into the dry desert and forming thunderstorms.

Monsoon storms in Lancaster are characterized by brief summer thunderstorms that can release a lot of moisture in a small amount of time. While the monsoon storms are not as prevalent in the western Antelope Valley as they are in the eastern parts of the Mojave Desert, they can cause flooding and wind damage when they occur.

Another source of heavy rainfall is from summer tropical storms. These tropical storms usually coincide with El Niño years. El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean having important consequences for weather in California. Among these consequences is increased rainfall across the southern tier of the United States and Peru. During El Niño periods, trade winds begin to relax in the central and western Pacific Ocean leading to a depression of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific Ocean and an elevation of the thermocline in the west. The result is a rise in sea surface temperature and heavier than normal rainfall in Southern California. In the past, El Niño conditions have caused damage in Lancaster and the Antelope Valley.

Geography and Geology
Geologically, the Antelope Valley is part of the Mojave structural block, which is an elevated desert. The topography of the City generally slopes up to the southwest, with elevations ranging from approximately 2,300 feet in the northeast to 3,500 feet in the southwest. The overall topography of Lancaster is somewhat flat. Major topographic features include Quartz Hill, and the Fairmont and Antelope Buttes located west of 110th Street West.

The geology of the region consists of three main rock groups: crystalline rocks of Pre-Tertiary age; volcanic and sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age; and alluvial sedimentary rocks of Quaternary age. The first two groups consist of older, hard, consolidated materials from the surrounding mountains and rocky buttes that rise from the valley floor. The Antelope Valley soils profile consists of up to 4,000 feet of alluvial fill underlain by consolidated rocks. The bottom of the rock formations, known as the basement, includes the oldest formation and consists of quartz, monzonite, granite, gneiss, schist and other igneous and metamorphic rocks. The rocks overlying the basement primarily consist of shale, sandstone, conglomerate and siltstone.

The alluvial fills consist of fine to coarse-grained soil layers formed as a result of uplift and erosion of the surrounding mountains. Among the most distinct deposits of the valley fill are the fluvial lake deposits.

Because of the fluvial deposits, the fill has extensive interbedding sequences of silt, clay, sand and gravel.

The Antelope Valley area consists of fine-grained alluvium except for localized occurrences of very coarse- grained alluvium and metamorphic rock outcrops.

The alluvial fans in the Antelope Valley were naturally formed, therefore no well-defined channels exist.

During heavy rainstorms, runoff from the San Gabriel Mountains forms streams that percolate into the valley floor. When the ground is saturated, the runoff continues as temporary streams or sheet flow to the dry lake beds at Edwards Air Force Base. Without channels, storm drains, and retention basins, flooding would be much more common..25

25 SOURCE: Master Environmental Assessment 2030

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Urban Development
The trend toward development has resulted in less open land and greater flood potential. The City of Lancaster and its surrounding areas are growing rapidly. New construction and in-fill leave little open land to absorb rainfall. This lack of open ground forces water to remain on the surface and rapidly accumulate. In-fill building is becoming a much more common practice in many areas. Developers tear down an older home which typically covers up to 40% of the lot size and replace it with a single massive home or multi-unit town homes or apartments which may cover 90-90% of the lot. The consequence is less surface area for water to seep into the ground causing excessive run-off
Another potential source of flooding is “asphalt creep”. The street space between the curbs of a street is a part of the flood control system. Water leaves property and accumulates in the streets, where it is directed towards the underground portion of the flood control system. The carrying capacity of the street is determined by the width of the street and the height of the curbs along the street. Often, when streets are being resurfaced, a one to two inch layer of asphalt is laid down over the existing asphalt. This added layer of asphalt subtracts from the rated capacity of the street to carry water. Thus the original engineered capacity of the entire storm drain system is marginally reduced over time. Subsequent re-paving of the street will further reduce the engineered capacity even more.

Flood Maps and Flood Insurance Studies
Flood maps and Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) are often used to identify flood-prone areas. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 as a means of providing low-cost flood insurance to the nation’s flood-prone communities. The NFIP also reduces flood losses through regulations that focus on building codes and sound floodplain management. NFIP regulations (44 Code of Federal Regulations Chapter 1, Section 60, 3) require that all new construction in floodplains must be elevated at or above base flood level. Furthermore, the City of Lancaster has municipal codes that provide for the protection of residential and non-residential structures in Flood Hazard Areas.26 Dam and Reservoir Failure
Loss of life and damage to structures, roads, and utilities may result from a reservoir or dam failure. Several factors influence the severity of a full or partial reservoir or dam failure: the amount of water released, topography, and the density of downstream populations and structures.

There are three dams with reservoirs in the Lancaster area:
 The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power operates the Fairmont Reservoir No. 2 located near the intersection of Lancaster Road and 170th Street West near the town of Fairmont.  The Palmdale Water District and the Littlerock Creek Irrigation District jointly operate the Littlerock Dam and Reservoir. The Littlerock Dam is located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains near the town of Littlerock, about 5 miles southeast of Palmdale.  The Palmdale Water District operates Palmdale Dam and its reservoir, Palmdale Lake.

Palmdale Lake is located just south of Lancaster at Highway 14 and Avenue S in Palmdale.

26 City of Lancaster Municipal Code 17.40 General Regulations Article III Flood Damage Protection

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Fairmont Dam
The original Fairmont Dam and reservoir were constructed in 1913 and decommissioned in 1971 when geological studies after the San Fernando earthquake determined that the site had developed instabilities. In 1983 the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power opened a second reservoir, Fairmont Reservoir No.

2. The reservoir is hydraulically filled at an elevation of 2800 feet, has a capacity of 491 acre feet and is equipped with a spillway. Adjacent to the reservoir is the old Fairmont Dam which, although no longer in use, has a capacity of 5578 acre feet and is an earthen dam with a concrete center.

The Fairmont Reservoir presents the only flood risk to Lancaster and the surrounding area. The reservoir is rarely filled to capacity and was built so that the Fairmont Dam can contain any overflow. If both structures were to fail, the water would travel down the gorge and impact several buildings at the Antelope Valley Sportsmen‘s Club, 45408 160th Street West. Beyond this point, the water would proceed down the gorge for approximately 4.5 miles where it would reach flat terrain and dissipate at 110th Street West.27 Littlerock Dam and Palmdale Dam
Near Palmdale are the Littlerock Dam and Reservoir and the Palmdale Dam and its reservoir, Palmdale Lake.

The Littlerock Dam can hold 3,500 acre feet of water. In 1994 Little Rock dam was improved to meet seismic requirements. The crest was elevated and spillway was raised 12 feet, increasing the dam capacity. The new spillway section was designed to meet a 100-year flood event.

If the Littlerock Dam were to rupture as a result of an earthquake, failure, or 100-year flood, a ten (10) foot wall of water is projected to inundate some residential parts of Littlerock and Palmdale just north of Pearblossom Highway. If there is an overflow at the Littlerock Dam at the same time that the Little Rock Wash and the Town of Pearblossom watershed are full, inundation will reach Lancaster along the path of the Town of Pearblossom watershed.

Map 36: FEMA FIRM showing Town of Pearblossom Watershed Source: Google Earth FEMA Flood Hazard Map

27 City of Lancaster Emergency Operations Plan 2010

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The affected area in Lancaster is loosely bounded by 50th Street East and 90th Street East, and East Avenue K and East Avenue L. There is a small housing development to the west of the watershed in the community of Roosevelt, but none of the houses are within the perimeter of the flood zone. An inundation at the Littlerock Dam would flood Pearblossom Highway. Pearblossom Highway is one of the major east- west regional roads connecting Lancaster to Palmdale and large cities to the east, including Victorville, therefore loss of access to Pearblossom Highway would make eastbound travel out of Lancaster difficult. 28

Palmdale Lake sits at an elevation of 2980 feet and is a 4.2 thousand acre feet reservoir fed by a ditch from the Littlerock Reservoir An earthquake can trigger a seiche (a water wave caused by the effects of seismic activity on a body of standing water) that can cause Palmdale Lake to overtop the dam. It is believed that the design of the dam will prevent water overpour, and if some were to occur the volume would not be enough to cause flooding. Flooding caused by a break of the Palmdale Dam would not reach Lancaster or Quartz Hill.29
The California Aqueduct presents some risk of overflow. In the event of a major earthquake, the Aqueduct might be breached. During such a break, millions of gallons of water could spill north and east across the Antelope Valley.

Estimated Impact of an Event
If major flooding were to occur, the consequences to local populations, employment, and housing could be significant. The table below provides the estimated impact of a disaster using a 1% loss baseline. In addition, the socially vulnerable populations (those aged 65 and over, individuals with disabilities, those living in poverty, and the unhoused) are particularly at risk due to challenges in evacuation, limited access to recovery resources, and increased exposure to floodwaters. Using a 1% loss baseline, an estimated 186 persons aged 65 and over, 140 persons with a disability, and 293 persons in poverty could be affected. Although the exact impact on the unhoused population is difficult to quantify, they are especially vulnerable to flooding due to their lack of shelter, limited access to resources, and heightened exposure to waterborne diseases and hazards.

Category
Lancaster Total Impact if a 1% Loss Occurs
(U.S. Census 2023 Estimate)
Population 166,236 1,662
Persons With a Disability 13,964 140
Persons 65 and Over 18,619 186
Persons in Poverty 29,258 293
Total Employment* 86,688 867
Total Housing Units** 55,137 551
Median Home Value $368,800 3,688
Total Estimated Housing Impact $20,334,525,600 More than $203.3M Table 57: Estimated Population and Economic Loss of Floods *City of Lancaster Comprehensive Annual Report Fiscal Year End 2021 **2020 Decennial Census

28 Palmdale Water District Stormwater Flood Management, Proposition 1E, Round 2,Littlerock Reservoir Sediment Removal Project 29 Palmdale Water District Local Hazard Mitigation Plan December 2008

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Based on a 1% loss projection, more than 1,600 people would be displaced or significantly impacted, 867 jobs lost (either temporarily or permanently), and more than 550 homes could be damaged or destroyed resulting in over $203 million in losses (see Community Profile section for population, housing, and economic data).

Impact of Climate Change
The City of Lancaster is subject to regional impacts of climate change. Periods of extreme weather such as severe winter storms and flooding are expected to continue as weather patterns change. Specific areas of concern within Lancaster are within the two active groundwater wells, three storage tanks, and two booster pumps. Additionally, flooding will cause numerous transportation issues for Lancaster if freeways and major routes are inundated. Smaller roads can become blocked due to downed trees and power lines as well as road damage.

Impact of Land Use and Development
New development projects within Lancaster are limited according to the city’s development plan and other restrictions to mitigate the impact of floods. Developed commercial zones in low lying areas could be temporarily impacted by severe flood. Residential properties located near lower elevations may be at greater risk of mudslides and flood. If a flood were to occur, future development densities especially near low laying areas could be further limited to mitigate the impact of flooding.

Impact of Population Patterns
Recently, the population of Lancaster has shown a slight increase. As local residents age, there may be an increase in the number of vulnerable individuals in terms of age and disabilities which can require additional services following a flood as well as the secondary impacts of floods such as landslides, mudslides, sink holes, and power outages. Consequently, a shift in population patterns may occur following severe flooding in the area if older populations choose to relocate.

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Risk of Future Flood Events
For the City of Lancaster the perceived risk of future flood events was estimated by the Working Group using the following weighted formula:

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration)

The result was a flood risk rating of 2.52 (see Annex C Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey for general descriptors and degree of risk):

Hazard Probability Magnitude Warning Time Duration Risk Flood 2.50 2.43 2.29 3.25 2.52

Flood Overall Probability
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the Los Angeles region records the chance of a riverine flooding as 4.4 events per year.

Disasters Declarations and Emergency Proclamations
FEMA disaster declarations allow state, tribal, and local governments to access federal aid for disaster response and recovery when overwhelmed. Similarly, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) issues proclamations to mobilize state resources and streamline procedures.

FEMA Disasters Declarations
Declaration Date: 1/9/23 || California Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides || DD# em-3591-CA

Intense winter storm conditions caused flooding, debris flows and mudslides across most of California, though most damage was sustained along the coast outside the Lancaster area.

Declaration Date: 3/10/23 || California Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides || DD# EM-3592-CA

Flooding, Landslides, and mudslides occurred during a severe winter storm, despite heavy damage reported across the state coast, the Lancaster area was not as heavily affected.

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Cal OES Open State of Emergency Proclamations
Proclamation Date: 9/16/22 || Tropical Storm Kay

Tropical storm conditions brought heavy rainfall and strong winds across southern California, causing flooding and debris flows. The storm system, including debris flows, also damaged or destroyed roads in Imperial, Inyo, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties.

Proclamation Date: 1/4/23 || December 2022-January 2023 storms

Severe winter storms struck California causing high winds, and expected flooding, and widespread power outages. This declaration was a hazard to the entire state of California.

Flood Vulnerabilities
The major concern regarding the impact on communities from flood events is the loss of life and property.

Critical infrastructure failures are also a threat and may require days or weeks to repair. Similarly, the impact to business and industry can result in immediate and long term economic loss. For the Lancaster region, specific parts of the city vulnerable to flooding include areas near the local hillsides, particularly those adjacent to the San Gabriel Mountains, as well as riverine pathways such as the Amargosa Creek. The eastern and southern parts of Lancaster, especially areas near the Antelope Valley Freeway and the California Aqueduct, are particularly susceptible. In addition to the vulnerability of the local population in terms of life and safety, floods can have long-term impacts on local businesses, commercial facilities, and industry due to damage to facilities and equipment. Additionally, critical infrastructure can be significantly damaged from flooding. Examples of vulnerabilities include the following in terms of property loss, critical infrastructure, and business and industry.

Property Loss
Extensive damage can be caused by flooding and landslide damage related to soil saturation from flood events. The type of property damage caused by flood events depends on the location, depth, and velocity of flood waters. Flood waters can wash buildings off foundations and sweep personal property downstream.

Critical Infrastructure
Critical infrastructure can be damaged during floods, especially when high water levels combine with flood debris. Damage can occur to water and sewer systems, electrical supplies, pipelines, transportation networks, emergency facilities, communications networks, and other essential sites. Furthermore, flood waters and debris can overflow local storm water systems causing traffic disruptions and pose a hazard to the health of the local community.

Business and Industry
Flood events impact businesses by damaging property and interrupting access by employees, suppliers, and customers. Furthermore, a loss of utilities caused by flooding can prevent businesses and industry from functioning.

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Flood Mitigation Strategies
National Flood Insurance Program
The City of Lancaster participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP is a Federal program created by Congress to mitigate future flood losses nationwide through sound, community-enforced building and zoning ordinances and to provide access to affordable, federally backed flood insurance protection for property owners. The NFIP is designed to provide an insurance alternative to disaster assistance to meet the escalating costs of repairing damage to buildings and their contents caused by floods.

The U.S. Congress established the NFIP on August 1, 1968, with the passage of the National Flood Insurance Act (NFIA) of 1968. The NFIP was broadened and modified with the passage of the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973 and other legislative measures. It was further modified by the National Flood Insurance Reform Act (NFIRA) of 1994 and the Flood Insurance Reform Act (FIRA) of 2004.

The NFIP is administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a component of the U.S.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In support of the NFIP, FEMA identifies flood hazard areas throughout the United States and its territories. Most areas of flood hazard are commonly identified on Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). A FIRM is an official map of a community on which FEMA has delineated both the special hazard areas and the risk premium zones applicable to the community.

Areas not yet identified by a FIRM may be mapped on Flood Hazard Boundary Maps (FHBMs). Several areas of flood hazards are identified on these maps. One of these areas is the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA).

The SFHA is a high-risk area defined as any land that would be inundated by a flood having a 1-percent chance of occurring in a given year (also referred to as the base flood). The high-risk-area standard constitutes a reasonable compromise between the need for building restrictions to minimize potential loss of life and property and the economic benefits to be derived from floodplain development. Development may take place within an SFHA, provided that development complies with local floodplain management ordinances, which must meet the minimum Federal requirements. Flood insurance is required for insurable structures within high-risk areas to protect Federal financial investments and assistance used for acquisition and/or construction purposes within communities participating in the NFIP.

Flood is defined in the Standard Flood Insurance Policy (SFIP), in part, as: A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties (at least one of which is your property) from overflow of inland or tidal waters, from unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source, or from mudflow.

The National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 allows FEMA to make flood insurance available only in those areas where the appropriate public body has adopted adequate floodplain management regulations for its flood- prone areas. Individual citizens cannot regulate building or establish construction priorities for communities.

Without community oversight of building activities in the floodplain, the best efforts of some to reduce future flood losses could be undermined or nullified by the careless building of others. Unless the community as a whole is practicing adequate flood hazard mitigation, the potential for loss will not be reduced sufficiently to affect disaster relief costs. Insurance rates also would reflect the probable higher losses that would result without local floodplain management enforcement activities.

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Participation in the NFIP is based on an agreement between local communities and the Federal Government that states that if a community will adopt and enforce a floodplain management ordinance to reduce future flood risks to new construction in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), the Federal Government will make flood insurance available within the community as a financial protection against flood losses.

Lancaster participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (see FEMA Community Status Book Report:

California table following) and the ongoing eligibility requirements are specified under 44CFR§59.21. Copies of current FIRMs are provided in Annex E: FIRM and Flood Control Basins.

CID Community
Name County Init FHBM
Identified
Init FIRM
Identified
Curr Eff
Map Date Reg-Emer Date Tribal
060672# LANCASTER,

CITY OF
LOS

ANGELES
COUNTY
09/11/79 01/06/82 09/26/08 01/06/82 No
Table 58: FEMA Community Status Book Report: California Source: http://www.fema.gov/cis/CA.html

Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM)
A Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is an official map produced by FEMA that delineates communities where NFIP regulations apply. FIRMs are used by insurance agents and mortgage lenders to determine if flood insurance is required and what insurance rates should apply.

FIRMs combine water surface elevations with topographic data to illustrate areas that would be inundated during a 100-year flood, floodway areas, and elevations marking the 100-year flood level. In some cases they also include base flood elevations (BFEs) and areas located within the 500-year floodplain. Flood Insurance Studies and FIRMs produced for the NFIP provide assessments of the probability of flooding at a given location. However, it is important
to note that these studies and
maps represent flood risks at a
point in time and do not
incorporate subsequent
floodplain changes due to new
development or other changes in
the geography of the area. See
Annex E: Flood Insurance Rate
Maps and Flood Control Basins
for maps and additional details.

Map 37: Lancaster Flood Insurance Rate Map Panel Numbers

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NFIP Revisions
One revision to the Flood Insurance Rate Maps has been made since 2018. On 5/29/2018 FEMA removed from the SFHA one property.

Affected Map
Panel Lot Subdivision
Outcome
What is
Removed from
the SFHA
Flood
Zone
1% Annual Chance
Flood Elevation
(NAVD 88)
Lowest Adjacent
Grade Elevation
(NAVD 88)
Lowest Lot
Elevation (NAVD
88)
06037C0405F
06037C0410F
Parcel
3 Parcel Map
No. 14651 Property X
(shaded) -- -- 2316.0 feet
FLOODING SOURCE: PORTAL RIDGE WASH;

PONDING
APPROXIMATE LATITUDE & LONGITUDE OF PROPERTY: 34.705993, -118.187388 SOURCE OF LAT & LONG: LOMA LOGIC DATUM: NAD 83
Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) - The SFHA is an area that would be inundated by the flood having a 1-percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year (base flood).

This document provides the Federal Emergency Management Agency's determination regarding a request for a Letter of Map Amendment for the property described above. Using the information submitted and the effective National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) map, we have determined that the property(ies) is/are not located in the SFHA, an area inundated by the flood having a 1-percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year (base flood). This document amends the effective NFIP map to remove the subject property from the SFHA located on the effective NFIP map; therefore, the Federal mandatory flood insurance requirement does not apply. However, the lender has the option to continue the flood insurance requirement to protect its financial risk on the loan. A Preferred Risk Policy (PRP) is available for buildings located outside the SFHA. Information about the PRP and how one can apply is enclosed.

This determination is based on the flood data presently available. The enclosed documents provide additional information regarding this determination. If you have any questions about this document, please contact the FEMA Map Information eXchange (FMIX) toll free at (877) 336-2627 (877-FEMA MAP) or by letter addressed to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Engineering Library, 3601 Eisenhower Ave Ste 500, Alexandria, VA 22304-6426.

NFIP Claims
The following property within the City of Lancaster filed a flood claim through the NFIP. There were no repetitive loss properties.

Date of
Loss
Census
Tract
Flood
Zone
Number of
Floors
Occupancy
Type
Original
Construction
Date
Amount Paid on
Building Claim
Amount Paid on
Contents Claim
Primary
Residence
10/15/2015 6037901205 X 2 1 1/1/1990 50000 20000 Y
Table 59: NFIP Redacted Claims Dataset
Source: https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2 FEMA Federal Insurance & Mitigation Administration (Last Data Refresh: 01-05-2024)

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Lancaster Flood Mitigation Activities
Flooding is often a regional problem that crosses multiple jurisdictional boundaries. Flood risks are greatest and flood hazards most severe in winter when water bodies are usually full and soils saturated. Although flooding is primarily a natural process and is therefore difficult to prevent, urbanization, land use, and development decisions have a significant effect on the frequency and severity of floods.

There are a number of existing local and regional flood control facilities in Lancaster, including channels, storm drains, and retention basins (see Annex E: FIRM and Flood Control Basins for retention basin information and maps).

City streets are still generally used to convey water runoff, which tends to flow in sheets over paved surfaces and collect in low-lying areas. In many areas, City streets are designed to accommodate 10-year and / or 25- year storm flows within the right-of-way. Several areas in the City have recurring flood problems during rainy periods.30 Flood mitigation activities include enforcement of building codes, zoning codes, and various planning strategies to address development in areas of known hazards and applying the appropriate safeguards. Furthermore, Lancaster has assessed its flood hazards and participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

The City of Lancaster is responsible for flood control within the city limits. Flood mitigation measures in the City of Lancaster include an extensive storm drain and flood control system including retention basins.

FEMA has identified several Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) within the City of Lancaster. Lancaster has chosen to adopt and enforce minimum floodplain management standards as dictated by FEMA. These standards are designed to prevent new development from increasing the flood threat and to protect new and existing buildings from anticipated flood events. Furthermore, several areas of the City have been reclassified and are no longer designated as SFHA.

Development under the City’s General Plan could place structures within the SFHA. Adherence to development policies as well as state and federal regulations reduces the flood threat of doing so. Lancaster has adopted. The following policies have been implemented in Lancaster to reduce the risk of floods.

Flood Control
 Adoption of the County of Los Angeles Ordinance No. 1549 (flood control channel ordinance) that dictates maintenance, terms and conditions, bridges, dip policies, and penalties in regard to flood control channels in the City.

Construction Standards:
 Requires that a development permit shall be obtained before any construction or other development begins within any special flood hazard area (SFHA) identified by the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) dated July 6, 1981, and the Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM), dated September 26, 2008.
 Construction standards for new structures built in special flood hazard areas that include standards for anchoring, construction materials and methods, elevation, and flood proofing, in order to reduce flood hazards.

30 Master Environmental Assessment 2030

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 Standards for utilities, subdivisions, manufactured homes, recreational vehicles, and floodways in order to reduce flood hazards.
 Requires that street and storm drain flood control systems be designed to accommodate identified storm flows.

Public Works
 Ensure that major creeks, channels, and basins are kept clear of obstruction, and are regularly maintained.

In addition, the City completed a 20th Street storm drain extension at Avenue L to mitigate the impact of future flooding. Additional improvements continue to be evaluated and implemented as resources become available.

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SECTION 11: CLIMATE CHANGE
The Nature of the Climate Change Threat
According to “California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment” developed by the State of California, continued climate change will have a severe impact on California. Increased temperatures, drought, wildfires, and flood are several of the main concerns related to climate change in the Southwest. As such, Climate Change is a global threat that impacts the entire Antelope Valley as well as the Southern California region and western U.S. Primary impacts of Climate Change include temperature rise, drought, and severe rainstorms which lead to secondary threats such as wildfires and flooding. The following sections detail the nature of the Climate Change threat.

Temperature Changes
California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment (2018) estimates that by the year 2100, the average annual maximum daily temperature is projected to increase by 5.6 to 8.8 degrees. This estimate is based on the status of greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting rise in temperature can result in power outages (from increased demands combined with limited supplies) as well as agriculture and livestock losses. Additionally, the Indicators for Climate Change in California report (Fourth Edition, 2022) states that:

Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in California have increased by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). Warming occurred at a faster rate beginning in the 1980s. Recent years have been especially warm:

Eight of the ten warmest years on record occurred between 2012 and 2022; 2014 was the warmest year on record. Temperatures at night, which are reflected as minimum temperatures, have increased by almost three times more than daytime temperatures. Nighttime warming has been more pronounced in the summer and the fall, increasing by about 3.5°F over the last century, and Southern California has warmed faster than Northern California.

Figure 29: Statewide Average Annual Temperature and Decadal Averages

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Water and Drought
By 2050, the water supply from the California snowpack is projected to decline by two-thirds. This will lead to water shortages of up to 16 percent in certain regions causing losses in agriculture as well as community water consumption restrictions. According to the Indicators for Climate Change in California report (Fourth Edition, 2022), “As air temperatures have warmed,
more precipitation has been falling as rain instead
of snow at high elevations. The amount of annual
precipitation has also become more variable in the
past four decades. Winter storms transporting
large volumes of water vapor —called
“atmospheric rivers” — play a role in this variability.

The duration, intensity, and frequency of these
storms are affected by warmer air and changing
ocean conditions.”
“Although a naturally occurring feature of
California’s climate, drought conditions have
become more frequent and more intense. A
combination of hotter temperatures and low
precipitation years – especially when snowpack
and snowmelt runoff are low - mean drier
conditions. California has been getting drier since
1895.

By the end of the 2021 water year (which begins in
October and ends in September the next year),
drought conditions were comparable to those
during 2012 to 2016, the most severe drought
period on record. In California and across the southwestern United States, 2000 to 2021 has been the driest 22-year period over the past 1,000 years, part of what scientists call an emerging “megadrought” era.” Indicators of changes in climate also show that:
 Extreme heat events in California have become more frequent since 1950, especially in the last decade. These are events when temperatures are at or above the highest 5 percent of historical values. Over the past 70 years, extreme heat events increased by 1 to 3 per decade at 10 of 14 locations studied. Heat waves, defined as two or more consecutive heat events, have also become more frequent in the past decade. Averaging 1 to 3 per year in earlier decades, daytime heat waves more than doubled to 5 to 6 per year in five locations studied; nighttime heat waves similarly increased to 5 to 7 per year at 10 locations, and up to as high as 10 per year at one (Blue Canyon).
 Across California’s Central Valley, winter chill, a period of cold temperatures required for dormancy by fruit and nut trees to flower and fruit, has been declining.  • The energy needed to cool buildings during warm weather — measured by “cooling degree days” — has increased in California, while the energy needed to heat buildings during cold weather — measured by “heating degree days” — has decreased.

Figure 30: Palmer Drought Severity Index for California

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Climate Change and Drought History
Temperature
Overall, temperatures in the South Coast Region of California have fluctuated year-to-year but have shown a consistent increase since 2012. Furthermore, as of August 2018, the average temperature in the South Coast Region rose 2 degrees from the 1981-2010 average (CNAP California Climate Tracker). The table below provides a summary of the annual deviation from the average temperature from 1995 to 2022.

Year
Mean
Temperature
(Fahrenheit)
Historical
Average Departure
2022 62.3 61.77 0.53
2021 62.29 61.77 0.52
2020 62.35 61.77 0.58
2019 60.9 61.77 -0.87
2018 63.58 61.77 1.81
2017 63.7 61.77 1.93
2016 63.71 61.77 1.94
2015 62.97 61.77 1.2
2014 64.03 61.77 2.26
2013 62.19 61.77 0.42
2012 63.07 61.77 1.3
2011 60.17 61.77 -1.6
2010 60.85 61.77 -0.93
2009 61.72 61.77 -0.06
2008 62.36 61.77 0.59
2007 62.56 61.77 0.79
2006 61.42 61.77 -0.35
2005 61.56 61.77 -0.21
2004 62.21 61.77 0.44
2003 62.84 61.77 1.07
2002 62.32 61.77 0.54
2001 63.01 61.77 1.23
2000 62.17 61.77 0.4
1999 61.26 61.77 -0.51
1998 59.3 61.77 -2.47
1997 62.8 61.77 1.03
1996 64.23 61.77 2.46
1995 62.49 61.77 0.72
Table 60: Mean Temperature Observations and Departures for the South Coast Source: Western Regional Climate Center

Source: The National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Map 38: CNAP Mean Temperature Departures from
1981-2010 Average

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Drought
As of 2023, California drought conditions
have eased due to increased rainfall in
recent years. While some parts of the
state are still recovering from the
prolonged period of drought that lasted
from 2012 to 2017 and the general
drought conditions are expected to
continue, currently only 8.79% of
California is experiencing Moderate (D1)
to Exceptional (D4) Drought (0% in D3,
0% in D4), as of April 2023. 31
In addition, historical rainfall in the South
Coast of California and the State in
general has varied widely from year to
year. However, more recently, California
has experienced 31 atmospheric rivers
(ARs) in Water Year (WY) 2023 through
March, based on CW3E analysis, which
have delivered between 1.5 to 2 water years' worth of precipitation in much of the state. 31 The table below summarizes the rainfall variations from 1985 to 2022. Over the last 38 years, 22 of the years experienced less rainfall than the historical average (the annual average from 1985 to 2022 was 13.92).

Year Precipitation
(inches) Percent of Average Year Precipitation
(inches) Percent of Average
2022 7.02 44.57 2003 6.46 41.04
2021 10.39 66 2002 14.11 89.64
2020 20.63 130.99 2001 15.36 97.57
2019 13.12 83.31 2000 6.43 40.86
2018 6.85 43.48 1999 26.48 168.2
2017 16.61 105.5 1998 9.98 63.38
2016 9.19 58.39 1997 22 139.71
2015 10.64 67.6 1996 12.84 81.56
2014 3.57 22.65 1995 23.11 146.8
2013 9.61 61.01 1994 15 95.29
2012 12.2 77.5 1993 35.66 226.45
2011 19.98 126.91 1992 17.63 111.96
2010 15.39 97.71 1991 6.56 41.67
2009 7.25 46.07 1990 6.53 41.46
2008 13.7 87 1989 11.09 70.44
2007 11.19 71.09 1988 13.03 82.75
2006 19.01 120.72 1987 15.73 99.89
2005 28.92 183.7 1986 9.8 62.21
2004 15.02 95.4 1985 10.77 68.4
Table 61: Precipitation Average from 1985 to 2022
Source: Western Regional Climate Center

31 Drought.gov, California-Nevada Drought Status Update, April 2023 Map 39: Current Drought Western U.S. Status (2023)

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Wildfire
California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment (2018) estimates that by the year 2100, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, that the frequency of extreme wildfires will increase with the average area burned statewide increasing by 77%. In the areas that have the highest fire risk, wildfire insurance is estimated to see costs rise by 18 percent by 205532 and some insurance carriers have stopped issuing policies in the state (see Wildfire section for additional area specific information).

Flood
“California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment” states that inland flooding is projected to increase over the coming century. Inland flooding threatens approximately 2,500 to 4,600 bridges across the United States and is anticipated to result in average annual damages of $1.2 to $1.4 billion each year by 2050 (in 2015 dollars, undiscounted, five-model average). See Flood section for specific details.

Water Supply Management and Drought Considerations
The City of Lancaster relies on the LA County Water Works District for their water supply management.

Consequently, drought is not included as a standalone hazard within the plan, as the management and response to water scarcity primarily fall within the scope of the specified water district. However, while drought may not be listed as a separate hazard, the potential impacts of water scarcity are considered within the broader hazard assessments and mitigation strategies.

32 CA.gov, California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

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Estimated Impact of Climate Change and Drought
The consequences to local populations and employment of climate change and/or drought is difficult to measure. However, it is anticipated that severe heat will cause power outages, cause health problems, reduce economic output, and lead to decreased worker productivity. The table below provides the estimated impact of a disaster using an overall 10% loss baseline. In addition, the socially vulnerable populations (those aged 65 and over, individuals with disabilities, those living in poverty, and the unhoused) are particularly at risk during such events. Using a 10% loss baseline, an estimated 1,862 persons aged 65 and over, 1,396 persons with a disability, and 2,926 persons in poverty could be affected. Although the exact impact on the unhoused population is difficult to quantify, they could be impacted by climate change and drought due to limited access to critical resources, increased exposure to extreme weather events and environmental hazards.

Category
Lancaster Total Impact if a 10% Loss Occurs
(U.S. Census 2023 Estimate)
Population 166,236 16,624
Persons With a Disability 13,964 1,396
Persons 65 and Over 18,619 1,862
Persons in Poverty 29,258 2,926
Total Employment* 86,688 8,669
Total Housing Units** 55,137 5,514
Median Home Value $368,800 36,880
Total Estimated Housing Impact $20,334,525,600 More than $2.03B

Table 62: Estimated Population and Economic Loss of Climate Change and Drought *City of Lancaster Comprehensive Annual Report Fiscal Year End 2021 **2020 Decennial Census

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Impact of Climate Change
The City of Lancaster is subject to the regional impacts of climate change. High heat and drought conditions are expected to continue interspersed with periods of other extreme weather such as severe winter storms and flooding.

Impact of Land Use and Development
Continued extreme weather events caused by climate change such as severe winter storms put residential areas within Lancaster at greater risk of landslides and low laying areas are subject to flooding, debris flows, and mudslides. Consequently, future development plans may increase the number of restrictions on new development plans or redevelopment projects, particularly residential properties in low laying areas.

Additionally, prolonged periods of drought could result in an increase in areas subject to wildfire as well as force limits to water use leading to changes in land use patterns and future development plans.

Impact of Population Patterns
Population patterns are expected to remain unchanged due to climate change unless areas of the city are deemed to be unusable following a severe weather event due to a major flooding, landslide, debris flow, or mudflow. In addition, ongoing drought conditions are not expected to change the population density in the City of Lancaster.

Risk of Future Climate Change
For the City of Lancaster the perceived risk of future climate change events was estimated by the Working Group using the following weighted formula:

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration)

Probability Magnitude / Severity Warning Time Duration
Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Unlikely 1 Negligible 1 Less than 6 hrs 4 Less than 6 hrs 1 Possibly 2 Limited 2 6 to 12 hrs 3 Less than 24 hrs 2
Likely 3 Critical 3 12 to 24 hrs 2 Less than one wk 3
Highly Likely 4 Catastrophic 4 More than 24 hrs 1 More than one wk 4 The result was a climate change risk rating of 2.66 (see Annex C Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey for general descriptors and degree of risk):

Hazard Probability Magnitude Warning Time Duration Risk Climate Change
(including Drought
& Severe Heat)

3.00 2.43 1.57 3.50 2.66

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Climate Change Overall Probability
Although the FEMA National Risk Index does not include a separate category for climate change, they do indicate 73 drought events per year.

Stakeholder Input and Participation
To identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences of a major climate change event on the Lancaster Region, each member of the Planning Group provided their input during planning meetings (see Annex D:

Lancaster HMP Planning Meetings) and follow-up discussions. Specific topics of discussion included if any hazard priorities have changed since the previous HMP, how changes in the community have impacted the risk of each hazard, and what new mitigation actions can be taken. In addition, each member of the Planning Group as well as members of the public provided the input via online surveys (see Annex B: Public Emergency Preparedness and Risk Survey, Annex C: Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey, and Annex D: Planning and Public Involvement).

Critical Infrastructure
Droughts pose a significant risk to critical infrastructure in Lancaster, particularly impacting water supply systems and agricultural areas. The California Aqueduct, a vital water source for the region, is vulnerable to reduced flow during prolonged droughts, which can strain water availability for residents, businesses, and agriculture. Local water storage facilities, such as Little Rock Reservoir, may experience reduced levels, further affecting the region's water supply.

Drought conditions can also lead to soil subsidence, which can damage roads and infrastructure, including State Routes 138 and 14, making transportation and maintenance more challenging. Prolonged drought increases the risk of wildfires, which can further endanger critical infrastructure like power transmission lines managed by Southern California Edison (SCE). Additionally, drought can strain local agricultural industries, leading to economic impacts and disruptions in the supply chain that affect the broader community. Public services, including emergency response and firefighting, may also be affected by limited water availability, reducing the ability to respond to fires or other emergencies efficiently.

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Disasters Declarations and Emergency Proclamations
FEMA disaster declarations allow state, tribal, and local governments to access federal aid for disaster response and recovery when overwhelmed. Similarly, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) issues proclamations to mobilize state resources and streamline procedures.

FEMA Disasters Declarations
No disaster declarations.

Cal OES Open State of Emergency Proclamations
Proclamation Date: 10/19/21 || Drought

The Drought proclamation remains a hazard to Los Angeles County as well as the Lancaster area.

Climate Change Vulnerabilities
In terms of vulnerabilities, the main concerns involve the impact of:
 Excessive Heat leading to:
o Power outages
o Heat-related health issues
 Drought and Limited water supplies causing:
o Reduced water availability to the local community and residents o Livestock (including horses) and domesticated animal losses o Damage to local natural habitats
 Wildfire (see Wildfire section)
 Flood (see Flood section)

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Climate Change Probabilities
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), continued emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to further climate changes. Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, higher sea levels, and larger changes in precipitation patterns. The extent of future climate change depends on what we do now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The more emitted, the larger future changes will be (Environmental Protection Center, 2015).

According to “California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment” for the Los Angeles Region, “warming is expected to increase across the LA region in the coming decades (Cayan et al. 2008; Horton et al. 2015; Swain et al. 2016; Maurer 2007; Hayhoe et al. 2004; Sun, Walton, and Hall 2015).”

Historical-observed (black), historical-modeled (grey), and projected future (RCP4.5 - blue, RCP8.5 - red) annual average maximum temperature over the LA region. (a) Annual time series of data (future projections begin in 2006), with solid lines representing model-averages and shading representing model spread. (b) Summary of model-average (circles) and spread (vertical lines) across four time periods: 1976- 2005 (historical), 2006-2039 (early-21st century), 2040-2069 (mid-21st century), and 2070-2100 (late-21st century). Unit is °F.

Figure 31: Average Maximum Temperatures by Time Period

Climate change vulnerabilities within Lancaster include areas subject to an increased threat of wildfire, flood, landslide, debris flow, and mudslides. Specially the hillside and mountain areas and those below higher elevations. Natural drainage paths, such as creek beds and canyons, can channel debris flows and mudslides, posing a threat to downstream communities. Urban development in or near these areas can exacerbate the risk. As a result, there is a risk to lives and health, school closures, significant damage to critical infrastructure, long term business and industry closures resulting in significant economic losses, and damage or destruction of commercial and residential properties.

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Temperature Rise
California can expect an increase in temperature in the future. A recent presentation by the California Public Utilities Commission, Policy & Planning Division 33 stated that extreme heat days in some cities in California are likely triple by 2030.

The Indicators of Climate Change in
California report summarized trends in
extreme heat conditions for the state. 34
The report indicated that the number of
daytime heat waves varied year-to-year
without a clear trend. However, nighttime
heat waves increased in frequency over
the past 40 years. Further, regional
trends showed that the rate of increase in
the number of extreme heat nights was
twice that of the rate of increase in
extreme heat days for most of Southern
California.

The graph below depicts the historical and
predicted Annual Average Maximum
Temperature for the City of Lancaster
region.

Source: Cal-adapt.org

33 Douglas, Kristin, California in 2050: Some Sizzling Predictions, California Public Utilities Commission, Policy & Planning Division, 2017 34 Milanes, et.al., Indicators of Climate Change in California, 2018.

Map 40: Regional Trends in Extreme Heat Days and Nights Figure 32: Annual Average Maximum Temperature
Regional Trends in Extreme Heat Days and Nights

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Drought
According to “California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment” for the Los Angeles Region, “Southern California is prone to periods of extremely dry conditions (MacDonald 2007; Woodhouse et al. 2010). The region recently experienced an exceptional drought during 2011-2015, with anthropogenic warming contributing to historically warm temperatures, dry soils, precipitation deficits, and low snowpack (Swain 2015; Mote et al. 2016; Margulis et al. 2016; Seager et al. 2015; AghaKouchak et al. 2014; Grifin and Anchukaitis 2014; Belmecheri et al. 2015). Anthropogenic warming has increased the probability that low- precipitation years coincide with warm years, increasing the current risk and severity of droughts and low snowpack in California (Difenbaugh et al. 2015; Berg and Hall 2017; Williams et al. 2015). Atmospheric conditions conducive to California droughts, such as a persistent region of high pressure in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, may have also become more frequent in recent decades (Swain et al. 2016). GCMs project significantly drier soils in the future over the Southwest (including California), with more than an 80% chance of a multidecadal drought during 2050–2099 under RCP8.5 (Cook et al. 2015). Additional research is needed to better understand the prevalence and characteristics of future droughts on local scales in southern California.”
Over the long-term, drought conditions in the Western U.S. are likely to continue for the foreseeable future (see previous Drought History section for additional details). Short-term, the region remains in Severe Drought status. In addition, California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment (2018) predicts that by the year 2100, California will face a decline in the water supply by two-thirds. In addition, by 2050 under certain precipitation conditions, the study concludes that agricultural production could face a water shortage of up to 16%.

Long-term, the City of Lancaster and Antelope Valley region can expect significant variations in precipitation in the future. The chart below provides a predictive model of rainfall for the City of Lancaster region.

Source: Cal-adapt.org

Figure 33: Maximum 1-Day Precipitation

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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies
The City of Lancaster has implemented
multiple programs to mitigate the impact of
climate change. These programs include
an active Sustainability effort that includes
Green Energy, air quality, and water
conservation efforts.

Green Energy Programs
Advanced Energy Community
In 2019, the California Energy Commission
awarded the City of Lancaster a $5 million
grant to lay the groundwork for its
"Advanced Energy Community," a
comprehensive project designed to advance
the City's ongoing renewable energy
objectives. The Advanced Energy
Community encompasses several different components, including:
 Virtual Power Plant - Integrates 5 MW of solar, 10 MWH of storage, and lowers procurement costs for Lancaster Choice Energy, the City's community choice aggregator  Community Microgrids
 Flexible Building and EV Loads
 Affordable Housing Developments - 78 units of townhomes, 164 single-family homes, innovative microgrids to provide renewable backup power, and a test site for evaluating the performance and economics of kinetic flywheel vs. lithium ion energy storage technologies  Community Resiliency Centers - Upgrades to existing community centers that provide emergency shelter and safeguard essential services powered by renewable microgrids  Commercial Energy Storage
 Innovative Energy Data Management and Rate Design

The City's grant team includes the ZNE Alliance, Energy Solutions, Olivine, NHA Advisors, Gridscape, Terra Verde Energy, and Blue Strike Environmental.

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Lancaster Energy
Lancaster Energy is a locally run, not-for-profit power program created by the City of Lancaster. This clean and modern power provider will be available exclusively to those who work and live within Lancaster and is alignment with the City’s goal of becoming the first net-zero city in the United States. The Lancaster Energy offers residents multiple programs to promote Green Energy. These programs include:
 Clear Choice
 Smart Choice
 Personal Choice
 Power Choice

Clear Choice is the default energy program offered to residents that combines traditional energy sources with 35% renewable energy. Smart Choice is a 100% renewable energy program which is part of the City’s goal of becoming a “Net Zero” city. Personal Choice is for those residents that generate solar/wind power and is used to offset power costs by producing energy and selling any excess power generated to Lancaster Energy. The Power Choice program is a partnership between Lancaster Energy and Tesla, Inc.

The program enables residents to install rooftop solar and Tesla Powerwall batteries at their homes with no upfront cost and no credit underwriting. The homeowner pays for the energy the system produces and a monthly battery payment.

Hydrogen Energy
 On May 9, 2023 the City of Lancaster announced its winning proposal under the U.S. Department of Energy H2 Twin Cities 2022 program that will launch the Pacific Hydrogen Alliance (PHA). The alliance involves the City of Lancaster and Namie Town, Japan as mentors for the County of Hawai’i, Hawaii on the development and deployment of hydrogen energy solutions at the municipal level.  In 2022, the City of Lancaster signed a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with Heliogen, Inc., a California-based renewable energy technology company that uses concentrating solar thermal systems to convert sunlight into steam, heat, power, and green hydrogen fuel. Under the terms of the MOU, Heliogen will serve as the technology provider, project developer, builder, operator, and equity partner for a green hydrogen generation facility that will support the city’s vision to become a model for hydrogen production in the U.S.

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 In 2023 the City of Lancaster and Heliogen, Inc. executed a contract to produce green hydrogen to be purchased by Lancaster for the city’s growing green hydrogen fuel needs. The partnership represents Lancaster’s first hydrogen offtake agreement. The green hydrogen will be produced at Heliogen’s Proxima hydrogen facility in Lancaster and will leverage Heliogen’s innovative technology using AI and advanced computer vision software to concentrate sunlight with mirrors, producing carbon-free hydrogen with significant economic development potential. As part of the agreement, Heliogen will provide green hydrogen to the City and will certify its carbon intensity, a measure of the CO2 emitted per kilogram of hydrogen produced. Proxima could ultimately help support other projects within the city and region, including sustainable aviation fuel, and sales and distribution of hydrogen fuel for industrial processes such as long-haul trucking, cement, and mining.

The agreement between Heliogen and Lancaster builds upon the previously announced MOU between the parties to establish a clean hydrogen generation facility, and is expected to contract hydrogen conforming to SAE J2719 hydrogen fuel cell vehicle specifications at a $10/kg offtake price.

The wholesale-level price represents significant cost savings for the city amid rapidly increasing prices at hydrogen filling stations across California, with the average hydrogen pump price reaching an all-time high of $21.28/kg in November 2022, according to data provided to Hydrogen Insight by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Other Sustainability Programs
Other City of Lancaster sustainability programs include:
 In June 2020, Lancaster Energy (LCE), an associate member of California Choice Energy Authority (CalChoice), completed the third and final phase of its Small Commercial Direct Install Program, a program offering free energy-efficiency assessments and upgrades to qualifying local businesses in the City of Lancaster. In total, the program helped 201 participating businesses save more than 2 million kWh of energy.
 The City of Lancaster requires by ordinance that all new home construction include solar energy.  The City of Lancaster worked closely with eSolar to bring a 20-acre 5 MW Sierra SunTower solar project to the area which opened in August 2009.
 The City facilitated a partnership with KB Home to develop a prototypical modestly priced energy-efficient home designed to generate more power than it uses. In July 2010 the grand opening event was held at KB Home’s Alamosa community in West Lancaster.
 The City developed a partnership with SolarCity to launch the Solar Lancaster Program. This program is an affordable solar financing program for homeowners, business owners and nonprofit organizations.

The Solar Lancaster program was designed to simplify the process of going solar by reducing energy bills, offering several financing options and discounting solar pricing, while providing custom solar system designs and monitoring.
 Additional City solar partnerships include entering into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and a power purchase agreement (PPA) with US Topco Energy, Inc. This public/private partnership allows for the development and construction of a number of solar energy facilities, with the intent to sell the power generated on a wholesale basis to other utilities.
 The City expanded its relationship with clean-energy investment firm Beautiful Earth Group. After designating land for future development of a zero-carbon footprint plant within Lancaster, the City and Beautiful Earth have undertaken an effort to make Lancaster one of the first “Net Zero Cities” in the world.

This designation establishes Lancaster as a location which produces as much energy from sustainable sources, such as solar energy, as it consumes.

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 The City has partnered with leading industry pioneers to aggressively research and implement projects in the areas of hydrokinetic, concentrated photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, as well as first-of-its- kind power transmission in the Antelope Valley.
 The City of Lancaster was recognized by the Wolfgang Neumann Energy Globe World Award 2012 in Vienna, Austria with the first place prize in the “Fire” category.  The City of Lancaster has a fleet of Alternate Fuel Vehicles which includes hybrid-electric and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles. The City makes an effort to purchase alternative fuel vehicles when older vehicles need to be replaced. The extra cost required to purchase these vehicles instead of those powered by gasoline is offset by funds from the state of California’s AB2766 Program.

Air Quality Efforts
In November 2021, the City of Lancaster teamed up with the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District (AVAQMD) and Lowes on a program to exchange gas-powered lawn equipment and with electric equipment. The program offered a credit of up to $275 towards electric models.

Water Conservation Efforts
The City of Lancaster proactively encourages water conservation efforts by the community and has taken steps to conserve water resources and reduce waste water. Programs include:
 City Ordinances to Combat Water Wasting
o Ordinance 892, is a Prohibition of Wasting Water and cautions against misusing water that is supplied by a public water system. The code also identifies several acts as a waste of water, including:
 Allowing a faucet or hydrant to leak or drain into a sewer after having been told to fix the problem by any public officer.
 Using water to cool any refrigerator, air-conditioning system, motor, etc. unless the water used is then collected, re-cooled and reused.
 Allowing water to flow from any faucet, hose, etc. for more than 30 minutes without putting the water to a beneficial use. Each 30 minutes this occurs will be considered a separate offense.
 Allowing water to leak for an unreasonable length of time. o Ordinance 893 “Water Efficient Landscape” restricts the planting of trees and other plants that use large amounts of water and requires the use of “smart” irrigation controllers on new development contracts.
 The ordinance follows the guidelines recommended by a coalition of Antelope Valley water purveyors, landscape architects, City officials, builders, and representatives from the Building Industry Association to establish standards for landscape design that are appropriate to Lancaster’s climate and resources.
 At its core, this ordinance aims to prevent developers from using landscaping that requires large amounts of water. It also provides for standards for plant selections, water features, use limitations, soil conditions and irrigation features, which will be established by the City Council.

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 The code applies to all new projects reviewed by the City for conditional use permits or design on or after February 1, 2008. This includes office, commercial, industrial and institutional landscaping; park and greenbelt landscaping; developer-installed landscaping in multiple family residential developments, and common areas of single-family residential developments. While the ordinance does not apply to landscaping in private areas of residential projects, these developments are encouraged to use these guidelines to conserve local water resources and help ensure that water is not wasted.  Desert-Friendly Landscaping – the City of Lancaster encourages residents and businesses to implement low water plantings to conserve water and provides information resources to support this effort including a free, “Guide to High Desert Landscaping”.

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SECTION 12: PANDEMIC
The Nature of the Pandemic Threat
Oxford Languages defines a pandemic as a “widespread occurrence of an infectious disease over a whole country or the world at a particular time.” According to Duke Global Health Institute, in any given year, there is a 2% chance of a major pandemic with effects similar to COVID-19 occurring.

Major Factors
While there have been significant advancements in health and medical technologies, according to the National Library of Medicine, major factors such as the frequency of international travel, climate change, ongoing human to animal contact, and urbanization contribute to an increased risk of pandemics happening in the future.

The Continuum of Pandemic Phases
The emergence of a pandemic can lead to various consequences, including higher healthcare demands, strained medical resources, economic disruptions, social impacts, loss of life and long-term disability. Given the continuing risk of a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have identified four phases of the pandemic continuum. In the risk assessment continuum below, there are three stages:
"preparedness," "response," and "recovery." During the "preparedness" stage, global cases are lowest, representing the interpandemic phase. Cases rise significantly during the "alert" and "pandemic" phases.

These phases overlap with the "response" stage. Subsequently, in the "transition" phase, cases decrease, coinciding with the "recovery" stage. A slight increase in cases during the "transition" phase suggests a potential second wave. Eventually, cases return to the original interpandemic levels, aligning with the "preparedness" stage.

Figure 34: The Continuum of Pandemic Phases
Source: CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/planning-preparedness/global-planning-508.html )

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Phases of a Pandemic
Pandemics are comprised of 6 phases, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The pandemic phases progress as follows: Phase 1 has no reported animal-to-human virus infections. In Phase 2, animal viruses infect humans, raising concerns. Phase 3 involves sporadic human cases but no widespread transmission. Phase 4 sees confirmed human-to-human transmission with community outbreaks. Phase 5 includes human-to-human spread in two countries in one WHO region. Finally, Phase 6 is the pandemic phase, which signifies global community-level outbreaks.

Figure 35: Phases of a Pandemic
Source: National Library of Medicine (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/)

Stakeholder Input and Participation
To identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences of a pandemic on the Lancaster Region, each member of the Planning Group provided their input during planning meetings (see Annex D: Lancaster HMP Planning Meetings) and follow-up discussions. Specific topics of discussion included if any hazard priorities have changed since the previous HMP, how changes in the community have impacted the risk of each hazard, and what new mitigation actions can be taken. In addition, each member of the Planning Group as well as members of the public provided the input via online surveys (see Annex B: Public Emergency Preparedness and Risk Survey, Annex C: Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey, and Annex D:

Planning and Public Involvement).

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Historical Record of Worldwide Pandemic Events
Numerous pandemics have occurred throughout history. The table below provides a summary of major worldwide pandemics.

Years Pandemics Pathogens Vectors
2019-ongoing COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Bats, pangolins, other source? 2015-ongoing Middle East Respiratory
Syndrome (MERS)
MERS-CoV Bats, dromedary camels
2009–2010 Swine Flu Influenza A/H1N1 Pigs
2002–2003 Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome SARS)
SARS-CoV Bats, palm civets
1968–1970 Hong Kong Flu Influenza A/H3N2 Avian
1961-ongoing Seventh Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1957–1959 Asian Flu Influenza A/H2N2 Avian
1918–1919 Spanish Flu Influenza A/H1N1 Avian
1899–1923 Sixth Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1889–1893 Russian Flu Influenza A/H3N8? Avian?
1885–ongoing Third Plague Yersinia pestis Fleas associated to wild rodents 1881–1886 Fifth Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1863–1875 Fourth Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1839–1856 Third Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1827–1835 Second Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1817–1824 First Cholera Pandemic Vibrio cholerae Contaminated water 1347–1351 Black Death Yersinia pestis Fleas associated to wild rodents 541–543 Plague of Justinian Yersinia pestis Fleas associated to wild rodents Table 63: Pandemics Throughout History
Source: Pandemics Throughout History, Piret and Bolvin, 2021

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Causes and Characteristics of COVID-19
The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), “is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus” which originated in China in 2019, spreading around the globe rapidly.

The virus primarily spreads through respiratory droplets, making close person-to-person contact a significant mode of transmission. It is characterized by a range of symptoms, including fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, with some cases progressing to severe respiratory distress. Additionally, COVID-19 exhibits a wide range of severity, from asymptomatic carriers to severe cases requiring intensive medical intervention.

Covid-19 Fatalities in the City of Lancaster
Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial disruptions worldwide due to the significant number of cases and associated fatalities. The table below provides the estimated number of cases and fatalities within Lancaster. In comparison to the United States fatality rate (1.1%)35, the Lancaster region has a lower fatality rate (-0.3%), suggesting variations in healthcare infrastructure, public health measures, or demographics.

Region Confirmed Cases Reported Fatalities % of Fatalities Lancaster 65,238 503 0.8%
LA County 1,553,431 14,371 0.9%
Table 64: Estimated COVID-19 Cases and Deaths within the Lancaster Region ** Source: City of Los Angeles Public Health (http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/coronavirus/locations.htm) (as of 9/25/23)

35 WHO ( https://covid19.who.int/) (as of 9/27/23)
Figure 36: Covid-19 Cases by Region
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Lancaster LA County
65,238
1,553,431
503
14,371
COVID Cases by City
Based on Data from 9/25/23
Conﬁrmed Cases Deaths

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Pandemic Hazard Identification
World Health Organization (WHO) Declaration
The declaration of the beginning and end of a pandemic is typically made by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO assesses global health situations and provides recommendations based on epidemiological data and expert analysis. When a new infectious disease spreads internationally and poses a significant threat, the WHO may declare a pandemic. The declaration is based on criteria related to the geographic spread and severity of the disease.

White House Emergency Declaration
The President of the United States has the authority to declare a federal state of emergency. This declaration grants the President certain powers and allows for the allocation of federal resources and assistance to affected states or regions. It facilitates a coordinated response across federal, state, and local agencies to address the emergency effectively.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Pandemic Declaration The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is a key agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services responsible for protecting public health and safety through the control and prevention of diseases, injuries, and disabilities. The CDC may issue a pandemic declaration based on its assessment of the global spread and severity of a disease. This declaration serves as a significant public health alert, triggering coordinated efforts at the national and international levels to combat the spread of the infectious disease. It often leads to the implementation of various containment and mitigation strategies to protect public health.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, plays a critical role in pandemics by coordinating and supporting the federal government's response efforts. This includes allocating and distributing essential resources, issuing emergency declarations to unlock federal resources, and providing logistical support. They also facilitate communication and information sharing, conduct training and exercises, participate in strategic planning, and engage in community outreach and education. FEMA's overarching goal is to ensure a unified and efficient response to pandemics, working closely with federal, state, and local partners to safeguard public health and safety.

Governor Emergency Declaration
In California, the Governor is responsible for declaring a state of emergency in the state. This declaration grants the Governor certain powers to respond effectively to emergencies, such as natural disasters or public health crises. It allows for the mobilization of resources, coordination of agencies, and implementation of emergency measures to protect public safety and well-being. The decision to declare an emergency is based on an assessment of the situation's severity and the need for an organized and coordinated response.

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Stay at Home Order
A stay-at-home order is typically issued by relevant public health authorities such as the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, often in consultation with government officials. It is a directive aimed at limiting non-essential activities and movement of individuals within a specific region or jurisdiction. The goal is to reduce the spread of a contagious disease, such as a pandemic. This order may specify exceptions for essential activities like obtaining food, seeking medical care, or engaging in essential work. Compliance with the order is crucial in minimizing the impact of the public health crisis.

Estimated Impact of an Event
The consequences to local populations and employment of a pandemic is difficult to measure. However, it is anticipated that a severe pandemic will cause health problems, reduce economic output, and lead to unemployment. The table below provides the estimated impact of a disaster using an overall 20% loss baseline.

Category
Lancaster Total Impact if a 20% Loss Occurs
(U.S. Census 2023 Estimate)
Population 166,236 33,247
Persons With a Disability 13,964 2,793
Persons 65 and Over 18,619 3,724
Persons in Poverty 29,258 5,852
Total Employment* 86,688 17,338
Table 65: Estimated Population and Economic Loss of a Pandemic *City of Lancaster Comprehensive Annual Report Fiscal Year End 2021

Based on a 20% loss projection, more than 33,300 people would be displaced or significantly impacted, about 17,300 jobs lost (either temporarily or permanently). In addition, the socially vulnerable populations (those aged 65 and over, individuals with disabilities, those living in poverty, and the unhoused) are particularly at risk during such event due to their increased susceptibility to illness. Using a 20% loss baseline, an estimated 3,724 persons aged 65 and over, 2,793 persons with a disability, and 5,852 persons in poverty could be affected. Although the exact impact on the unhoused population is difficult to quantify, they are especially vulnerable during pandemics due to challenges in adhering to public health measures, and heightened exposure to disease in unsanitary or overcrowded conditions (see Community Profile section for population, housing, and economic data).

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Risk of Future Pandemic Events
For the City of Lancaster the perceived risk of future pandemic vents was estimated by the Working Group using the following weighted formula:

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration)

Probability Magnitude / Severity Warning Time Duration
Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Unlikely 1 Negligible 1 Less than 6 hrs 4 Less than 6 hrs 1 Possibly 2 Limited 2 6 to 12 hrs 3 Less than 24 hrs 2
Likely 3 Critical 3 12 to 24 hrs 2 Less than one wk 3
Highly Likely 4 Catastrophic 4 More than 24 hrs 1 More than one wk 4 The result was a pandemic risk rating of 2.43 (see Annex C Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey for general descriptors and degree of risk):

Hazard Probability Magnitude Warning Time Duration Risk Pandemic 2.33 2.67 1.67 3.33 2.43

Pandemic Overall Probability
According to Duke Global Health Institute, in any given year, there is a 2% chance of a major pandemic with effects similar to COVID-19 occurring.

Impact of Climate Change
The City of Lancaster is subject to the regional impact of future pandemics. Although there is no clear relationship between climate change and pandemics, certain weather patterns can cause people to congregate which can lead to greater disease spread. Furthermore, historical influenza patterns indicate a higher risk of disease spread during winter months.

Impact of Land Use and Development
There is no known relationship between pandemics and long term land use or development patterns.

However, a pandemic could result in temporary alternate use of properties for expanded health care facilities.

Impact of Population Patterns
A pandemic could result in the loss of population within Lancaster. At risk populations include the very young, the elderly, and the socially disadvantaged as well as those with limited healthcare. Nevertheless, overall population patterns are not expected to significantly change.

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Disasters Declarations and Emergency Proclamations
FEMA disaster declarations allow state, tribal, and local governments to access federal aid for disaster response and recovery when overwhelmed. Similarly, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) issues proclamations to mobilize state resources and streamline procedures.

FEMA Disasters Declarations
Declaration Date: 3/13/20 || California Covid-19 || DD# EM-3428-CA

The Covid- 19 Pandemic remained a hazard to the Lancaster area until the incident period ended on May 11, 2023.

Cal OES Open State of Emergency Proclamations
No open emergency proclamations declared.

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Pandemic Vulnerabilities
Lancaster as well as the entire State of California is vulnerable to pandemics. The major concern regarding the impact on communities from loss of life, long term health problems, business and industry closures leading to severe economic loss, the closure of schools, overcrowded hospitals, and the long term impact to mental health and development. Examples of the various vulnerabilities to pandemic include:
 Age
 Business and Industry
 Healthcare Systems
 Public Gatherings
 Underlying Diseases
Age
Over Age 65
Age represents a significant vulnerability in a pandemic. Older individuals, particularly those over the age of 65, are at higher risk of severe illness or death from infectious diseases. This demographic vulnerability necessitates targeted protective measures and healthcare resources. Long-term care facilities and nursing homes, where older populations often reside, require special attention to prevent outbreaks and ensure adequate care. Vaccination efforts should prioritize this demographic to reduce their vulnerability.

Children
In the case of influenza, according to the CDC36, “Children younger than 5 years old–especially those younger than 2–are at higher risk of developing serious flu-related complications. Children of any age with certain chronic health conditions are also at higher risk; during the 2022-2023 flu season, 66 percent of children 0 to 17 years old hospitalized with flu had at least one underlying health condition, such as asthma, neurologic disease, obesity, or immune suppression.”

Pregnancy
The CDC further notes that, “influenza is more likely to cause illness that results in hospitalization in pregnant people than in people of reproductive age who are not pregnant. Flu also may be harmful for a pregnant person’s developing baby. A common flu symptom is fever, which has been associated in some studies with neural tube defects and other adverse outcomes for a developing baby.”

Socially Vulnerable
The Socially Vulnerable can be especially susceptible to a pandemic due to age (especially the elder population), pre-existing medical conditions, reliance at-home care, physical constraints, an inability to seek medical care, and other health-related issues. Furthermore, the Socially Vulnerable may not have the financial resources to sustain themselves if normal sources of income are not available such as during business shut-downs. Additional risks include a dependency on mass transit (which may be limited during a pandemic), a lack of housing, and an ability to understand health-related notifications by people with no or minimal verbal or English language which can delay actions and access to resources.

36 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm

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Any Age Group - Spanish Flu Example
As stated by the Cleveland Clinic, “from 1918 to 1919, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people globally. This amounted to about 33% of the world’s population at the time. In addition, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people. About 675,000 of the deaths were in the U.S. Just like the flu we get today, the Spanish flu was particularly harmful to infants under age 5 and people over the age of 65. One thing that was different about the Spanish flu was that it also killed a large number of healthy adults, aged 20 to 40 years.”37
Business and Industry
A pandemic exposes vulnerabilities within the business and industrial sectors. Disruptions in supply chains, reduced consumer demand, and workforce (due to illness or quarantine measures) can significantly impact economic stability. Although business of any size are likely to be impacted, small businesses may face additional challenges. Industries reliant on physical presence, such as manufacturing, hospitality, and entertainment, are particularly vulnerable.

Healthcare System
The healthcare system faces extreme vulnerabilities during a pandemic. Sudden surges in patients can strain resources, leading to shortages of critical supplies, beds, and healthcare professionals. This can hinder the ability to provide optimal care, not only for COVID-19 patients but also for individuals with other medical needs. Moreover, healthcare workers themselves are at heightened risk of exposure.

Public Gatherings
Large gatherings present a significant vulnerability during a pandemic. Events such as conferences, concerts, and sports gatherings can serve as hotspots for viral transmission. Inadequate social distancing and limited adherence to preventive measures can increase the spread of a viral infection. Balancing societal and economic needs with public health measures becomes a critical challenge. Implementing restrictions on gatherings, promoting virtual alternatives, and enforcing safety protocols are vital strategies to mitigate this vulnerability.

Underlying Disease
Individuals with underlying health conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, or respiratory conditions, are more susceptible to severe outcomes from a pandemic. These conditions can exacerbate the impact of the virus and increase mortality rates. Adequate healthcare support and targeted public health messaging are essential in protecting this vulnerable population. Additionally, vaccination campaigns and early detection and management of underlying conditions are crucial preventive measures.

37 https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/21777-spanish-flu

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Pandemic Hazard Identification Mitigation Strategies
National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan
The COVID-19 Preparedness Plan created by The White House aims to address the COVID-19 Pandemic, which includes measures for testing, vaccination, healthcare infrastructure, and public health initiatives.

Protect Against and Treat COVID-19
The first category, "Protect Against and Treat COVID-19," emphasizes the critical importance of vaccination.

It prioritizes the administration of vaccines to all eligible individuals, with a specific focus on providing booster shots. Additionally, the plan calls for the widespread availability and accessibility of testing to facilitate early detection and containment of the virus. Equitable access to high-quality treatments for COVID-19 is also highlighted, ensuring that individuals receive the necessary care and support. The category underscores the need to equip hospitals and healthcare facilities with the resources and personnel required to effectively manage and treat COVID-19 cases.

Prepare for New Variants
The second category, "Prepare for New Variants," addresses the dynamic nature of the virus. It places a strong emphasis on genomic sequencing and surveillance to detect and monitor emerging variants. In the event of new variants, the plan calls for the development and deployment of targeted vaccines and treatments to effectively respond. International collaboration and coordination are crucial in this regard, with a focus on strengthening partnerships to collectively address challenges posed by global variants.

Prevent Economic and Educational Shutdowns
The third category, "Prevent Economic and Educational Shutdowns," emphasizes a balanced approach to public health measures. It aims to control outbreaks without resorting to widespread shutdowns of businesses and educational institutions. The plan provides support to these sectors, offering resources and guidance to ensure safe operations. Furthermore, economic relief measures are implemented to assist individuals and families facing challenges due to the pandemic, helping to maintain stability and resilience in the face of economic uncertainties.

Continue to Vaccinate the World
The fourth category, "Continue to Vaccinate the World," highlights the significance of global vaccination efforts. It involves the acceleration of initiatives to share vaccine doses and support vaccine production on a global scale. The plan places an emphasis on building international partnerships and cooperation to address issues related to vaccine access and distribution. Additionally, efforts are directed towards strengthening vaccine manufacturing capacity in low- and middle-income countries, ensuring equitable access to vaccines for all populations worldwide.

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Lancaster Pandemic Mitigation Activities
The Lancaster city website provides a variety of critical COVID-19 information. This includes general details about vaccinations, getting tested, reopening safely, financial resources, and FAQs. Additionally, the city provides information about the “Stand Strong” Youth Sports Program, which is designed to assist local youth sports organizations continue their operations to benefit Lancaster’s young residents.

Figure 37: City of Lancaster Corona Virus Information Page

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SECTION 13: HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RELEASE
The Nature of the Hazardous Materials Release Threat
Hazardous materials are regulated by multiple federal and state agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), Cal/OSHA, the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A hazardous material (or HazMat) is any biological, chemical, radiological, and/or physical item which has the potential to cause harm to humans, animals, and/or the environment.

Hazardous materials are stored, used, and transported throughout the U.S. As a consequence, there is a continued threat of a hazardous materials release - though the level of severity is dependent on numerous factors such as the specific material and quantity released, if the material is combined with other agents, the location and environmental conditions, and proximity to populations.

Hazardous Materials Overview
The Lancaster area could be affected by hazardous materials incidents. The spills / releases of material can result from both stationary and mobile sources. The level of exposure form stationary sources varies by type of business and industry conducted within the area, e.g., the defense industry, manufacturing, petroleum suppliers, etc. Furthermore, traffic from major highways and railways are a transportation risk.

The City of Lancaster has multiple locations classified as large quantity generators of hazardous waste.

Further, the U.S. Air Force site and Boeing, Inc. are situated near the border at the Palmdale Airport.

Map 41: Hazardous Materials Large Quantity Generators
Source: https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/enviroatlas/interactivemap/

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Although these sites are known to store and utilize hazardous materials, there is no record of a major hazardous material spill or incident severely impacting the residents of the City of Lancaster since 2000, see Historical Record of Hazardous Materials Releases below (Note: one major incident on 1/1/2020 is listed from a Los Angeles County Sanitation District release of 3,000,000 gallons of disinfected sewage tertiary recycled water. The Sanitation District operates the Lancaster Water Reclamation Plant at 1865 W. Ave. D in Lancaster).

In addition to the large hazardous waste generators listed, other potentials threats include major roadways such as Highway 14, County Route N5 (Avenue J), and Sierra Highway as well as rail lines that run through or near the City of Lancaster such as the Metrolink Lancaster line and Union Pacific railway.

Map 42: Metrolink Rail Map

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Historical Record of Hazardous Materials Releases
The following hazardous materials spills within the City of Lancaster were reported to the Cal OES Warning Center from 2000 to 2023. Note: This list includes 2 fatalities stemming from railroad versus vehicles encounters that resulted in the release of hazardous materials as well as several cases of injuries and/or evacuations.

Notified
Date
Reporting Agency /
Company Substance Quantity Measure Type CAUSE Injuries

YES / NO
Fatals
YES/NO
Evacs
YES/NO
5/20/2023 SoCal Gas Natural Gas Unknown N/A Vapor Human Error No No Yes 5/14/2023 Southern California
Edison (SCE)
Oil, Transformer - Non
PCB 5 Gal(s) Petroleum Collision No No No
5/11/2023 State Wide Emergency
Services Diesel Fuel 25 Gal(s) Petroleum Other No No No 3/7/2023 Krazan Associates
Incorporated
Radiological Moisture
Density Gauge 1 Unknown Radiological Other No No No
3/7/2023 California Highway Patrol Diesel Fuel 60-70 Gal(s) Petroleum Collision Yes 1 No No 3/3/2023 Gene Wheeler Farms Ammonia Unknown Unknown Vapor Unknown No No No 2/7/2023 NRC OIL UNKNOWN Unknown Petroleum Unknown No No No 1/25/2023 Union Pacific Railroad
(UPRR) Train vs. Trespasser N/A N/A Railroad Unknown No No No 12/14/2022 S CA Edison Oil - Mineral Type, Non
PCB 300 Gal(s) Petroleum Other No No No
11/9/2022 Grimmway Enterprises Red Diesel 700-800 Gal(s) Petroleum Human Error No No No 9/17/2022 So Cal Edison Mineral Oil (Non PCB) 5 Gal(s) Petroleum Collision No No No 9/3/2022 SoCal Edison Mineral Oil (NON PCB) 1 Gal(s) Petroleum Human Error No No No 7/29/2022 NRC Motor Oil Unknown Unknown Petroleum Mechanical No No No 7/28/2022 Southern California Gas Natural Gas Unknown Cu. Ft. Vapor Human Error No No Yes 7/23/2022 UPRR Train vs Vehicle N/A N/A Railroad Unknown No No No 7/1/2022 ERTS Anti-Freeze 10-May Gal(s) Petroleum Mechanical No No No 5/12/2022 NRC Paint UNK Lbs. Vapor Unknown No No No
5/10/2022 Jiffy Lube #3813 Motor Oil 1.5 Gal(s) Petroleum Mechanical No No No 4/11/2022 United Parcel Service
(UPS) Oil / Anti-Freeze 110 Gal(s) Petroleum,
Vapor Unknown Yes No Yes
3/13/2022 S CA Edison Oil - Mineral Type, Non
PCB 14 Gal(s) Petroleum Collision No No No
3/4/2022 S CA Edison Oil - Mineral Type, Non
PCB 40 Gal(s) Petroleum Other No No No
12/31/2021 Union Pacific Railroad
(UPRR) Train vs Vehicle N/A N/A Railroad Rail Road
Collision No No No
11/15/2021 Union Pacific Railroad
(UPRR) Train vs Trespasser 1 N/A Railroad Rail Road
Unknown No No Yes
11/12/2021 So Cal Gas Natural Gas unknown N/A Vapor Other Human Error No No No
7/25/2021 Southern California
Edison Mineral Oil, Non PCB 10 Gal(s) Petroleum
Merchant /
Business
Collision
No No No
7/15/2021 SoCal Gas Natural Gas Unknown Unknown Vapor Residence Human Error No No No
6/24/2021 SoCal Gas Natural Unknown Lbs. Vapor Residence Human Error No No No
6/7/2021 EZ Auto Center Caustic liquid PH11
(Engine cleaner) 100 Gal(s) Chemical
Merchant /
Business
Human Error
No No No
6/4/2021
California Highway Patrol
(CHP) - Los Angeles
Communication Center
Fuel, diesel 40 Gal(s) Petroleum Road
Collision No No Yes 3

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Notified
Date
Reporting Agency /
Company Substance Quantity Measure Type CAUSE Injuries

YES / NO
Fatals
YES/NO
Evacs
YES/NO
5/31/2021 NRC Neon Green Sludge Unknown N/A Unspecified Residence Unknown No No
4/20/2021 NRC Ethylene Glycol Unknown Unknown Chemical Residence Human Error No
4/14/2021 SoCal Gas Natural Gas UNK Lbs. Vapor
Merchant/Busin
ess Human
Error
No No
4/3/2021 So Cal Gas Natural Gas Unknown Unknown Vapor Residence Collision
No No
3/15/2021 UPRR Train vs Trespasser 1 N/A Railroad Rail Road Unknown
No Yes
1/31/2021 So Cal Edison Mineral Oil (Non-PCB) 40 Gal(s) Petroleum Residence Collision
No
1/27/2021 Metrolink Train vs Vehicle N/A N/A Railroad Rail Road Human Error
Yes No
1/21/2021 So Cal Gas Gas Unknown Lbs. Vapor Residence
Uknown No No
12/2/2020 SoCal Gas Natural Gas N/A N/A Vapor Residence Human Error No No
11/17/2020 So Cal Edison Mineral Oil Non-PCB 20 Gal(s) Petroleum Road Collision Unknown No
9/28/2020 Antelope Valley CHP Red Dye Diesel 3600 Gal(s) Petroleum Road Human Error No
8/1/2020 SPower LLC Envirotemp FR3 Fluid/
Transformer Coolant 100 Gal(s) Chemical
Utilities/Subs
tation
Mechanical
No
7/14/2020 Southern California
Edison Mineral Oil (Non-PCB) 40 Gal(s) Petroleum Residence Collision No No
6/22/2020 Los Angeles County Fire Unknown White Powder Unknown Unknown Other Other Unknown No No 5/29/2020 Union Pacific Railroad
(UPRR) Train vs. Vehicle 1 Gal(s) Railroad Rail Road
Collision
No Yes
5/3/2020 Southern California Gas
Company Natural Gas Unknown Unknown Vapor Residence
Human Error
No No
4/29/2020 NRC Unknown Material Unknown N/A Vapor,
Unspecified
Road
Unknown No No
4/28/2020 Metro Link Train vs vehicle NA N/A Railroad Rail Road Collision
Yes No
4/22/2020 So Cal Gas Natural Gas Unknown Unknown Vapor
Residence
Collision
Unknown
No No
4/2/2020 Private Citizen Brown Water (No odor) Unknown Unknown Unspecified Residence Unknown No No
2/22/2020 City of Lancaster Paint - Urethane Coating
Type, Xerathane, 230 Gal(s) Chemical Other
Human Error No
1/1/2020 Los Angeles County
Sanitation District
Disinfected Tertiary
Recycled Water 3,000,000 Gal(s) Sewage
Treatment /
Sewage Facility
Mechanical
No
Table 66: Lancaster Reported HazMat Spills 2000 to 2023 Source: https://www.caloes.ca.gov/office-of-the-director/operations/response-operations/fire-rescue/hazardous-materials/spill-release-reporting/

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Causes and Characteristics of Hazardous Materials Releases Hazardous materials releases can be categorized into four types of events:
 Accidental events caused by human error, physical failure, or other causes (e.g., pipeline rupture, chemical spills, traffic accidents, rail accidents, etc.)  Deliberate attacks caused by people – (e.g. terrorists, criminals, hackers, delinquents, employees)  Natural disasters caused by nature (e.g., floods, wind, earthquakes, etc.)  Systemic threats caused by technology failures and/or other causes such as lack of maintenance or age related breakdowns
Accidental Events
Accidental events that cause the release of hazardous materials can be due to human error such as the intentional or accidental opening of control values, bypassing safety procedures, physical failure of infrastructure such as pipeline breaks, or other causes such a traffic accidents – especially on major transportation routes (freeways, highways, railways, etc.).

Deliberate Attacks
Deliberate attacks are intentional, malicious acts caused by people that are aimed at personnel, equipment, infrastructure, or computer systems (cyber-attacks). Many pipelines and other infrastructure are remotely controlled by computer systems which can be vulnerable to attack by hackers who can perform acts of sabotage against a target. Further acts of vandalism and theft can damage pipelines, rail lines, other transportation routes, storage tanks, etc. which can lead to the hazardous materials spills.

Natural Disasters
Natural hazard events have the potential to cause damage to facilities with hazardous materials. Lancaster's proximity to multiple earthquake faults, potential for valley flooding, severe storms, high winds, and valley floor subsidence can damage transportation routes, pipelines, storage tanks, and other critical infrastructure.

Systemic Threats
Systemic threats include the malfunction of control systems, pipeline or storage tank valve breakdowns, and other technology failures which can lead to the release of hazardous materials. Such events are similar to accidents, deliberate attacks, or natural disasters except that the failure is an integral part of the system due to age, lack of maintenance, faulty design, poor manufacturing or installation, or similar causes.

Stakeholder Input and Participation
To identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences of a major hazardous material release on the Lancaster Region, each member of the Planning Group provided their input during planning meetings (see Annex D: Lancaster HMP Planning Meetings) and follow-up discussions. Specific topics of discussion included if any hazard priorities have changed since the previous HMP, how changes in the community have impacted the risk of each hazard, and what new mitigation actions can be taken. In addition, each member of the Planning Group as well as members of the public provided the input via online surveys (see Annex B:

Public Emergency Preparedness and Risk Survey, Annex C: Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey, and Annex D: Planning and Public Involvement).

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Hazardous Materials Release Identification
A major hazardous materials release can either be airborne, liquid, solid, or a combination of materials types and can also lead to fires, explosion, and/or toxic plumes. As a consequence, a hazardous materials release can result in a disruption to roads, highways, freeways, rail lines, pipelines, as well as adversely impact the general health of local residents. Furthermore, a serious release could require the evacuation of areas and/or the temporary closure of schools, businesses, and/or government facilities. The examples listed below provide brief descriptions of the types of impacts that can be anticipated from a major hazardous materials release.

Injuries and Evacuation
There is a potential for injuries due to the release of hazardous materials including chemicals, airborne fumes, physical particles (such as asbestos), or waste products. Potential injuries include short-term and long-term health issues as well as fatalities due to physical contact or inhalation. Further, a major release may force evacuation of the local area and post release monitoring and clean-up. Additionally, in the event of a pipeline failure, there is a potential for injuries to industry employees, the public, and first responders who are in close proximity to a pipeline if there is an accident. If the accident results in an explosion or a large release of fumes, there is also a potential for deaths and the destruction of property. Since 2003 there have been 252 fatalities and 1,081 injuries caused by significant pipeline accidents in the United States.38 Transportation Infrastructure
Residents in the Lancaster area commute frequently by automobiles and public transportation. A hazardous materials release can result in the closure of roads, railways, highways, and freeways. Such transportation disruptions can result in excess commuting times, loss of income, and especially impact the socially vulnerable who may rely on public transportation.

Environmental Damage
A hazardous materials release may cause damage to the environment. For example:
 Chemicals may seep into the underground water table or local waterways resulting in the destruction of local habitat and death or injury to wildlife.  Airborne fumes or particles can spread over a wide area Additionally, environmental damage may require long-term clean-up efforts which necessitate the allocation and expenditure of significant funds.

Lifelines
Many types of lifelines may be the source of hazardous materials incidents. For example, a natural gas pipeline leak or storage tank break, an electrical system transformer explosion, or waste water pipeline rupture could release significant amounts of materials into the environment – which can result in forced evacuations as well as health risks to the community. Further, a lifeline failure can result in system outages and loss of service to customers which can severely impact the socially vulnerable.

38 PHSMA California Significant Incidents:
https://portal.phmsa.dot.gov/analytics/saw.dll?Portalpages&PortalPath=%2Fshared%2FPDM%20Public%20Website%2F_portal%2FSC%20Incident%20Trend& Page=Significant

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Economy
Direct economic impacts due to a major hazardous materials release include lost business output and productivity, property damage, government overtime costs, and other losses caused by contamination and post-event clean-up requirements.

Estimated Impact of an Event
If a major hazardous materials release were to occur, the consequences to local populations, retail, services, production, transportation, and manufacturing as well as clean-up costs can substantial. The table below provides the estimated impact of a disaster using a 1% loss baseline using U.S. Census data for the City of Lancaster (2017 latest survey).

Lancaster Estimated Impact of an Event
Table 67: Estimated Economic Loss due to an Energy Outage Source: US Census Bureau 2017

Category
City Of Lancaster
Sales, Value of Shipments, or Revenue of
Employer Firms ($1,000)
Daily Average
($1,000)
Estimated Daily
Loss @1%
($1,000)
Accommodation and Food Services $191,839 $526 $5.26
Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services
$192,917 $529 $5.29
Construction $293,721 $805 $8.05
Educational Services $94,230 $258 $2.58
Finance and Insurance(662) $104,402 $286 $2.86
Health Care and Social Assistance $956,171 $2,620 $26.20 Other Services (Except Public
Administration)(663)
$59,014 $162 $1.62
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services
$261,010 $715 $7.15
Retail Trade $1,463,590 $4,010 $40.10
Transportation and Warehousing (661) $52,679 $144 $1.44 Wholesale Trade $902,517 $2,473 $24.73
Unclassified $761,889 $2,087 $20.87
Totals $5,333,979 $14,615 $ 146

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Lancaster Estimated Impact of an Event (cont’d)
Category
(U.S. Census 2023 Estimate) Lancaster Total Impact if a 1% Loss Occurs Population 166,236 1,662
Persons 65 and Over 18,619 186
Persons With a Disability 13,964 140
Persons in Poverty 29,258 293

Based on a 1% loss projection, over $146,000 in losses can be expected per day in the event of a major hazardous materials release based on the table above. In addition, more than 1,600 people would be displaced or significantly impacted. In addition, the socially vulnerable populations (those aged 65 and over, individuals with disabilities, those living in poverty, and the unhoused) are particularly at risk during hazardous materials releases due to potential exposure to toxic substances and difficulties in evacuation. Using a 1% loss baseline, an estimated 186 persons aged 65 and over, 140 persons with a disability, and 293 persons in poverty could be affected. Although the exact impact on the unhoused population is difficult to quantify, they are especially vulnerable during such events due to their proximity to open areas, limited access to timely information, and increased risk of exposure to hazardous materials.

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Impact of Climate Change
Climate change can impact hazardous materials releases by increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods and wildfires, which can damage infrastructure and cause accidental releases.

Impact of Land Use and Development
Areas of Lancaster containing large quantity generators such as Lancaster Landfill and Recycling Center may be at greater risk of accidental hazardous materials releases, causing changes to local land use plans around these types of areas.

Impact of Population Patterns
It is not anticipated that hazardous materials releases will significantly impact population patterns in the City of Lancaster. However, areas containing hazardous materials could impact population densities.

Risk of Future Hazardous Materials Release Events
For the City of Lancaster the perceived risk of future hazardous materials releases was estimated by the Working Group using the following weighted formula:

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration)

Probability Magnitude / Severity Warning Time Duration
Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Level ID Value Unlikely 1 Negligible 1 Less than 6 hrs 4 Less than 6 hrs 1 Possibly 2 Limited 2 6 to 12 hrs 3 Less than 24 hrs 2
Likely 3 Critical 3 12 to 24 hrs 2 Less than one wk 3
Highly Likely 4 Catastrophic 4 More than 24 hrs 1 More than one wk 4 The result was a hazardous materials release risk rating of 2.59 (see Annex C Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey for general descriptors and degree of risk):

Hazard Probability Magnitude Warning Time Duration Risk Hazardous
Materials Release 2.25 2.60 3.43 2.83 2.59

Hazardous Materials Release Overall Probability
Since the overall probability of a hazardous materials release is difficult to assess given the variability in material properties and environmental factors, the overall probability is often perceived (as outlined above) rather than precisely quantified.

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Disasters Declarations and Emergency Proclamations
FEMA disaster declarations allow state, tribal, and local governments to access federal aid for disaster response and recovery when overwhelmed. Similarly, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) issues proclamations to mobilize state resources and streamline procedures.

FEMA Disasters Declarations
No disaster declarations.

Cal OES Open State of Emergency Proclamations
No open emergency proclamations declared.

Hazardous Materials Release Vulnerabilities
The major concern regarding the impact on communities from a major hazardous materials release is the risk to local populations and the failure of critical infrastructure. The public health consequences can be severe with a combination of immediate, short-term, and long-term health issues. Additionally, damage to critical infrastructure may require extensive repairs as well as clean-up which can impact local transportation routes, disrupt local businesses and industry, and cause immediate and long term economic loss.

Vulnerabilities in the City of Lancaster and surrounding area include the following:
 Highway 14 and Other Major Roadways
 Natural Gas Pipelines and Other
Hazardous Materials Pipelines
 U.S. Air Force Plant 42
 Defense Industry Manufacturers
 Waste Water Treatment Plants
 Recycling Centers and Disposal Sites
 Rail Lines (Metrolink and Union Pacific)
 Storage Tanks (natural gas, LPG,
chemical, etc.)
 SCE Substations and Transmission Lines
 Hydrogen Plant
 Hospitals and Major Health Care Facilities
 Private Hazardous Materials Generators
and Transportation Firms
The map on the following page shows the general location of major pipelines in the area.

For the Lancaster region, specific parts of the city vulnerable to hazardous materials release include areas near industrial zones and transportation corridors, particularly those adjacent to the Antelope Valley Freeway (State Route 14) and the Union Pacific Railroad. The western industrial areas and the vicinity of the General William J. Fox Airfield are especially susceptible due to the concentration of manufacturing and aerospace industries. In addition to the vulnerability of the local population in terms of life and safety, hazardous materials releases can have long-term impacts on local businesses, commercial facilities, and industry due to contamination and damage to facilities and equipment. Critical infrastructure, including water supply systems and emergency response facilities, can be significantly affected by such incidents.

Examples of vulnerabilities include the following in terms of pipelines and hydrogen plant.

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Pipelines

Map 43: Pipeline Map
Source: National Pipeline Mapping System, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Hydrogen Plant
In 2022, the City of Lancaster signed a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with Heliogen, Inc., a California-based renewable energy technology company that uses concentrating solar thermal systems to convert sunlight into steam, heat, power, and green hydrogen fuel. Heliogen will build its Proxima hydrogen facility in Lancaster. This green hydrogen generation facility will support the city’s vision to become a model for hydrogen production in the U.S.

Figure 38: Heliogen Lancaster Facility

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Hazardous Materials Release Mitigation Strategies
Municipal Codes, Zoning, and Licensing/Permitting Requirements Municipal codes, zoning ordinances, and licensing/permitting requirements are used to mitigate the potential for hazardous materials releases. For example, Title 17 Zoning 17.20.100 establishes prerequisites for the use or storage of hazardous materials within the City of Lancaster. Similarly, 17.16.220 includes the manufacture or use of hazardous materials and Title 10 Vehicles and Traffic 10.04.240 pertains to vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Other requirements related to the use, storage, manufacture, or transportation of hazardous materials are covered under specific sections of the Lancaster municipal code.

City of Lancaster General Plan
The 2030 Lancaster General Plan provides objectives, policies, and actions related to the management of hazardous materials. Specifically Section Objective 4.5 addresses the requirements for hazardous materials management within the City.

Objective 4.5 Protect life and property from the potential detrimental effects (short and long term) of the creation, transportation, storage, treatment, and disposal of hazardous materials and wastes within the City of Lancaster.

Policy 4.5.1:

Ensure that activities within the City of Lancaster transport, use, store, and dispose of hazardous materials in a responsible manner which protects the public health and safety.

Specific Actions

4.5.1(a) Implement the goals and policies of the Los Angeles County Certified Unified Program Agency; Health Hazardous Materials Division by:
 Ensuring the availability of safe and legal options for the management of hazardous waste generated within the City;  Reviewing all proposals for hazardous waste facility projects within the City for consistency with the adopted Los Angeles County Hazardous Waste Management Plan.
 Ensuring that the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act, as amended, are enforced for siting, operating and closing a hazardous waste facility, as set forth in state law.  Ensuring that sites for specified hazardous waste facilities are located as close to the areas of generation as possible and that residual repository facilities are located in more distant areas as far as possible from urbanized, populated, and congested areas.
 Reviewing annually and updating accordingly the City of Lancaster Hazardous Waste Facilities Ordinance No. 560 for compliance with Assembly Bill 2948 (Tanner), and any subsequent pertinent legislation.  Reviewing legislation as approved by the legislature for its application to the City and implementing it as required by law.

Status: Existing program
Responsibility: Planning and Public Works Departments,
Redevelopment Agency (Code Enforcement)
Time Frame: Ongoing
Funding Source: Department budget

4.5.1(b) Coordinate with Los Angeles County to ensure that commercial and industrial activities comply with all federal, state, county, and local laws regulating hazardous materials and wastes.

Status: Existing program
Responsibility: Planning and Public Works Departments, Redevelopment Agency (Code Enforcement), and Fire Department Time Frame: Ongoing
Funding Source: Department budget

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4.5.1(c)
Any business that uses, generates, processes, stores, treats, emits, or discharges a hazardous material shall submit a Hazardous Materials Business Plan, including a Hazardous Waste Contingency Plan to Los Angeles County as required by law.

Status: Existing program
Responsibility: Planning Department, Redevelopment Agency (Code Enforcement), and Public Works Department
Time Frame: Ongoing
Funding Source: Department budget

4.5.1(d)
Review the City ’s Hazardous Waste Management Ordinance annually to ensure that uses which treat hazardous wastes generated off-site and on-site, as well as uses which may pose a significant risk to public health, safety, and welfare by receiving, utilizing, storing, transporting, or disposing of hazardous waste and materials, are being located in areas which are planned and zoned for industrial use, accessible to the Antelope Valley Freeway without the need to travel through residential areas and are located at least 2,000 feet from the nearest area planned for residential use.

Status: Existing program
Responsibility: Planning and Public Works Departments
Time Frame: Ongoing
Funding Source: Department budget

4.5.1(e)
Conduct a periodic household hazardous waste collection program.

Status: Existing program
Responsibility: Public Works Department
Time Frame: Ongoing
Funding Source: Tipping fees

Downtown Lancaster Specific Plan Program Environmental Impact Report The Downtown Lancaster Specific Plan Program Environmental Impact Report identifies and describes mitigation methods for Hazardous Materials in the area.

MITIGATION MEASURES - REPORTED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS IMPACTS

 HAZ-1 A formal Phase I Environmental Site Assessment (ESA) shall be prepared on a project-by-project basis in accordance with ASTM Standard 1527-05 or the Standards and Practices for All Appropriate Inquiry (AAI), prior to any land acquisition and/or construction activities within the DLSP area. The Phase I ESA would identify specific Recognized Environmental Conditions (RECs), which may require further sampling/remedial activities by a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II and Phase III ESA experience prior to land acquisition and/or construction.  HAZ-2 Any underground storage tanks (USTs) to be removed and relocated during site demolition or construction activities shall be conducted under the purview of the local regulatory agency to identify proper handling procedures. Once the tank is removed, the areas beneath and around the removed tank shall be visually inspected. Any stained soils underneath the removed tank shall be sampled. Results of the sampling would indicate the appropriate level of remediation efforts required.
 HAZ-3 Any on-site aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) shall be removed and properly disposed of at an approved landfill facility. Once the AST(s) are removed, a visual inspection of the areas beneath and around the removed AST(s) shall be performed. Any stained soils observed underneath the AST(s) shall be sampled by a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II/III experience. Results of the sampling (if necessary) would indicate the level of remediation efforts that may be required.
 HAZ-4 Soil sampling shall be conducted prior to any land acquisition and/or construction activities, by a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II/III experience, to determine the potential for subsurface contamination at 44839 10th Street West. The sampling would identify the need for remedial activities resulting from potential migration of contamination associated with the on-site dry cleaner facility.

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MITIGATION MEASURES - REPORTED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS IMPACTS (continued)

 HAZ-5 During demolition and construction activities and prior to issuance of a grading permit, a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II and Phase III environmental assessment experience shall review groundwater documents regarding groundwater quality and subsurface releases at the off-site properties 44633 Sierra Highway, 44813 Yucca Avenue, and 44949 10th Street West.
 HAZ-6 During demolition and construction activities and prior to issuance of a grading permit, soil sampling shall be conducted by a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II/III experience, to determine the potential for subsurface contamination at the Downtown Lancaster Specific Plan area from the off-site property 44839 10th Street West.

The sampling would identify the need for remedial activities (if necessary) resulting from potential migration of contamination associated with the off-site dry cleaner facility.  HAZ-7 If unknown wastes or suspect materials are discovered during construction by the contractor that are believed to involve hazardous waste or materials, the contractor shall comply with the following:
o Immediately cease work in the vicinity of the suspected contaminant, and remove workers and the public from the area;
o Notify the City’s Project Engineer;
o Secure the area as directed by the Project Engineer; and o Notify the City’s Hazardous Waste/Materials Coordinator.

ASBESTOS-CONTAINING MATERIALS IMPACTS
 HAZ-8 Prior to demolition activities, an asbestos survey shall be conducted to determine the presence or absence of asbestos. The results of the survey shall be submitted to the City of Lancaster.  HAZ-9 If asbestos containing-materials (ACMs) are located, abatement of asbestos shall be completed prior to any demolition activities that would disturb ACMs or create an airborne asbestos hazard.  HAZ-10 Asbestos removal shall be performed by a State certified asbestos containment contractor in accordance with the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District (AVAQMD) Rule 1403. Rule 1403 regulations require the following measures:
o The facility shall be surveyed prior to issuance of a permit by AVAQMD; o AVAQMD shall be notified prior to construction activity; o ACMs shall be removed in accordance with prescribed procedures; o Collected ACMs shall be put into leak-tight containers or wrapping; and o ACMs shall be properly disposed of.

LEAD-BASED PAINT IMPACTS
 HAZ-11 If paint is separated from building materials (chemically or physically) during demolition of the structures, the paint waste shall be evaluated independently from the building material to determine its proper management.  HAZ-12 If lead-based paint is found, abatement shall be completed prior to any demolition activities that would create lead dust or fume hazard.
 HAZ-13 Lead-based paint removal shall be performed in accordance with California Code of Regulation Title 8, Section 1532.1, which specifics exposure limits, exposure monitoring and respiratory protection, and mandates good worker practices by workers exposed to lead.
 HAZ-14 Contractors performing lead-based paint removal shall provide evidence to the City Engineer of certified training for lead-related construction work.

TRANSPORTATION RELATED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS IMPACTS
 HAZ-15 Prior to any land acquisition and/or construction activities that involve railroad right of-way, a qualified hazardous materials consultant with Phase II/III experience shall conduct soil sampling. Results of the sampling (if necessary) would indicate the level of remediation efforts that may be required.  HAZ-16 Areas of exposed soils within Sierra Highway right-of-way, which will be disturbed during excavation/grading activities, shall be sampled and tested for lead prior to land acquisition or ground disturbance. Should any special handling, treatment, or disposal provisions be required, those provisions shall be included in construction documentation (if ADL is present).

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Environmental Services Department
The City of Lancaster Environmental Services Department provides residents with information and services related to solid waste collection, recycling, and sustainable practices. In addition, the Antelope Valley Environmental Collection Center (AVECC) provides a safe, efficient, convenient method for all Antelope Valley residents to drop off household hazardous and electronic waste for free. Located in Palmdale, the Center is operated as a joint partnership between the Cities of Lancaster and Palmdale, CalRecycle, Los Angeles County, and WM. Further, the Waste Management Lancaster Landfill and Recycling Center provides residents with a common location for the disposal of other waste materials.

Los Angeles County Fire Department and Hazardous Materials Certified Unified Program (CUPA) Finally, the Los Angeles County Fire Department provides first responder capabilities in the event of a hazardous materials release. Multiple stations such as Station 129 (Division HQ) and Station 130 are equipped with equipment and specialized teams trained to handle hazardous materials. Further, Los Angeles County has consolidated its plans and programs related to hazardous waste and materials management into one Certified Unified Program. The Los Angeles County Fire Department is the Certified Unified Program Agency (CUPA) for nearly the entire unincorporated and incorporated County. The CUPA programs consist of six hazardous materials and hazardous waste programs designed to consolidate, coordinate, and consistently administer permits, inspection activities, and enforcement activities throughout the County of Los Angeles. Specifically, the Hazardous Materials Management Program (within the CUPA programs) ensures compliance with statutory provisions and regulations relating to hazardous materials inventories and emergency plans, which address emergency responses to hazardous materials releases or threatened releases and to avoidance of accidents involving certain hazardous materials.

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SECTION 14: TERRORISM AND MASS VIOLENCE
The Nature of the Terrorism and Mass Violence Threat
Terrorism is a continuing threat throughout the world and within the United States. There is no history of terrorist acts or organized political terrorist groups operating in the Lancaster area. Consequently, the probability of a terrorist attack in Lancaster is considered low (see Risk of Future Terrorism Events section for details), although there are sites in Lancaster’s sphere of influence that have a higher probability of attack.

Nevertheless, it is still important to consider the potential for terrorist activities especially since there are a variety of political, social, religious, cultural, and economic factors that underlie the broad term “terrorist”. In addition, since terrorists often focus on high visibility targets and civilian populations, the potential consequences of an attack underscores the need to consider terrorism as part of this mitigation plan.

Furthermore, while Mass Violence events such as “Active Shooter” incidents are generally considered workplace or school focused and are criminal acts, they can also be considered forms of terrorism. There are specific characteristics that can link some Active Shooter cases to terrorism. Namely the targeting of vulnerable populations resulting in loss of life and an intent to intimidate. While the risk of Mass Violence events such as Active Shooter incidents is still considered low, including all forms of terrorism is an important component of a comprehensive mitigation plan.

History of Terrorist and Mass Violence Events in the Lancaster Area The Lancaster area has not experienced a terrorist act or mass violence event; however the area does include a variety of important military installations, a state prison, public works projects, electrical facilities, as well as other potential targets that could attract the attention of terrorists or mass violence perpetrators. In addition, the consequences of a terrorist act in the Antelope Valley could impact the local area, e.g., disruption of State Route 14, water supply contamination, and hazardous waste release. Furthermore, there is a possibility that extremist groups could operate from the area and use it as a base of operations for attacks elsewhere.

Specific Threats
Recent trends toward large scale incidents generating significant casualties make preparedness and the mechanisms for effective response essential. In addition to large scale attacks, a full range of assault styles must be considered. Contemporary terrorist activities may include a variety of methods including letter bombings, assassinations with small arms, bio-chemical attacks, car bombs, suicide attacks, and building bombings. Related threats include bomb threats, which disrupt the normal operations of business.

Venues likely to suffer the impact of terrorism include facilities that store, manufacture or transport hazardous materials, highways and freeways, telecommunications facilities, federal, state, county and city offices, shopping malls, schools, churches and religious centers, research facilities, electrical facilities, water and wastewater facilities, dams, bridges and overpasses, and sports / concert venues.

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Motivation
Conventional political motivations for terrorism or mass violence continue, however issues involving organized crime, narcotics trafficking, ecological / animal rights, abortion / right-to-life groups, and perceived economic injustice can also involve terrorist groups or lone individual “Lone Wolf” planning and operations.

Another aspect of increased motivation is the growing use of the Internet for terrorist recruitment, training and communications. Street gangs and skinhead gangs involved in criminal activities are often labeled by law enforcement as “terrorist” organizations, and there is evidence of terrorist recruitment and radicalization of prisoners in State prison system. Lancaster is home to various street gangs and the Nazi Low Riders, (NIR), a skinhead organization.

Causes and Characteristics of Terrorism
Defining Terrorism
There are multiple definitions of terrorism in common use. The United States Code defines terrorism as premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents usually intended to influence an audience. The United States Department of Justice defines terrorism as a violent act dangerous to human life, in violation of the criminal laws of the United States or any segment to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. The FBI defines terrorism based on international and domestic threats. International terrorism is defined as violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups who are inspired by, or associated with, designated foreign terrorist organizations or nations (state- sponsored). Domestic terrorism is defined as violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature.

All three of these definitions share important components:

1. Criminal action

2. The action must include violence against civilians

3. The action is carried out in order to further political or social objectives

4. The action is intended to coerce a government or civilian population.

Stakeholder Input and Participation
To identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences of a major terrorism and mass violence event on the Lancaster Region, each member of the Planning Group provided their input during planning meetings (see Annex D: Lancaster HMP Planning Meetings) and follow-up discussions. Specific topics of discussion included if any hazard priorities have changed since the previous HMP, how changes in the community have impacted the risk of each hazard, and what new mitigation actions can be taken. In addition, each member of the Planning Group as well as members of the public provided the input via online surveys (see Annex B: Public Emergency Preparedness and Risk Survey, Annex C: Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey, and Annex D: Planning and Public Involvement).

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Terrorism Hazard Identification
The categories below serve to differentiate terrorist organizations or individuals according to common goals and motivation. It should be noted that these categories of terrorism and terrorist groups are constantly changing. In addition, the “Lone Wolf” terrorism (individuals not connected to a terror cell or larger group, but who commit acts of public violence, often on behalf of a personal grievance) has added another dimension of concern.

Category Description
Separatist Separatist groups are those with the goal of separation from existing entities through independence, political autonomy, or religious freedom or domination. The ideologies separatists subscribe to include social justice or equity, anti-imperialism, as well as the resistance to conquest or occupation by a foreign power.

Ethnocentric Groups of this persuasion see race as the defining characteristic of a society, and therefore a basis of cohesion. There is usually the attitude that a particular group is superior because of their inherent racial characteristics.

Nationalistic The loyalty and devotion to a nation, and the national consciousness derived from placing one nation's culture and interests above those of other nations or groups. This can find expression in the creation of a new nation or in splitting away part of an existing state to join with another that shares the perceived "national" identity.

Revolutionary Dedicated to the overthrow of an established order and replacing it with a new political or social structure. Although often associated with communist political ideologies, this is not always the case, and other political movements can advocate revolutionary methods to achieve their goals Political Political ideologies are concerned with the structure and organization of the forms of government and communities. While observers outside terrorist organizations may stress differences in political ideology, the activities of groups that are diametrically opposed on the political spectrum are similar to each other in practice.

Religious Religiously inspired terrorism is on the rise. While Islamic terrorists and organizations have been the most publicized, all of the major world religions have extremists that have taken up violence to further their perceived religious goals. Religiously motivated terrorists see their objectives as holy writ, and therefore infallible and non-negotiable
Social Often particular social policies or issues will be so contentious that they will incite extremist behavior and terrorism. Frequently this is referred to as "single issue" or "special interest" terrorism. Some issues that have produced terrorist activities in the United States and other countries include animal rights, abortion, ecology/environment, and minority rights.

Domestic These terrorists are "home-grown" and operate within and against their home country. They are frequently tied to extreme social or political factions within a particular society and focus their efforts specifically on their nation's socio-political arena.

International or
Transnational
Often describing the support and operational reach of a group, these terms are often loosely defined, and can be applied to widely different capabilities. International groups typically operate in multiple countries but retain a geographic focus for their activities. Hezbollah has cells worldwide, and has conducted operations in multiple countries, but is primarily concerned with events in Lebanon and Israel. Transnational groups operate internationally, but are not tied to a particular country, or even region. Al Qaeda is transnational; being made up of many nationalities, having been based out of multiple countries simultaneously, and conducting operations throughout the world. Their objectives affect dozens of countries with differing political systems, religions, ethnic compositions, and national interests
Table 68: Terrorist Group Categories
Source: http://www.terrorism-research.com/groups/categories.php

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International Terrorist Groups
International terrorist groups can operate anywhere and act without regard to national borders. U.S. Code Title 18 Part I, Chapter 113b § 2331 defines international terrorism as activities that:
(A) involve violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or of any State; (B) appear to be intended:
(i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
(ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and
(C) occur primarily outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States, or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended to intimidate or coerce, or the locale in which their perpetrators operate or seek asylum
The U.S. State Department issues and maintains the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) List which documents current threat groups. The current FTO is listed below:

1. Abdallah Azzam Brigades 35. ISIS-Bangladesh

2. Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 36. ISIS-DRC

3. Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (AAMB) 37. ISIS-Libya

4. al-Ashtar Brigades 38. ISIS-Mozambique

5. al-Mulathamun Battalion, aka al-Murabitoun 39. ISIS-Philippines

6. al-Nusrah Front, aka Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (ANF/HTS 40. ISIS-Sinai Province (formerly Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis)

7. al-Qa’ida (AQ) 41. ISIS-West Africa

8. al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) 42. Islamic Jihad Union (IJU)

9. al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) 43. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)

10. al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (formerly Salafist Group for Call and Combat) 44. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

11. al-Shabaab 45. Islamic State’s Khorasan Province (ISIS-K)

12. Ansar al-Dine (AAD) 46. Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM)

13. Ansar al-Islam (AAI) 47. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

14. Ansar al-Shari’a in Benghazi 48. Jaysh al-Adl (formerly Jundallah)

15. Ansar al-Shari’a in Darnah 49. Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al Naqshabandi (JRTN)

16. Ansar al-Shari’a in Tunisia 50. Jemaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT)

17. Ansaru 51. Jemaah Islamiya (JI)

18. Army of Islam (AOI) 52. Kata’ib Hizballah (KH)

19. Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) 53. Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)

20. Asbat al-Ansar (AAA)` 54. Lashkar i Jhangvi (LJ) Lashkar i Jhangvi (LJ)

21. Boko Haram) 55. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT)

22. Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army (CPP/NPA) 56. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)

23. Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA) 57. National Liberation Army (ELN)

24. HAMAS 58. New Irish Republican Army (formerly Real IRA)

25. Haqqani Network (HQN) 59. Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

26. Harakat Sawa’d Misr (HASM) 60. Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)

27. Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI) 61. PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)

28. Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami/Bangladesh (HUJI-B) 62. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)

29. Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM) 63. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP)

30. Hizballah 64. Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C)

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31. Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) 65. Revolutionary Struggle (RS)

32. Indian Mujahedeen (IM) 66. Segunda Marquetalia

33. ISIS (formerly al-Qa’ida in Iraq) 67. Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)

68. Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

34. ISIS in the Greater Sahara (ISIS-GS)
Table 69: Foreign Terrorist Organizations
Source: www.state.gov

International terrorist groups often have state sponsors who view terrorism as a tool of foreign policy. State sponsors of terrorism engage in anti-Western terrorist activities by funding, organizing, networking, and providing other support to many extremists.

Country Designation Date
Cuba January 12, 2021
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) November 20, 2017 Iran January 19, 1984
Syria December 29, 1979
Table 70: State Sponsors of Terrorism
Source: U.S. State Department
Domestic Terrorism in the United States
Domestic terrorism involves attacks within the United States perpetrated by homegrown groups or individuals. U.S. Code Title 18 Part I, Chapter 113b § 2331 defines domestic terrorism as activities that:
(A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State;
(B) appear to be intended—
i. to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
ii. to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or iii. to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.

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Domestic Terrorism / Mass Shooting Event Examples
Year Event Description
April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing Truck bomb resulting in 168 people killed July 27, 1996 Centennial Olympic Park Bombing 1996 Summer Olympic bombing in Atlanta, GA resulting in 2 deaths and 111 injuries
September 18, 2001
(start) U.S. Anthrax Attacks A series of letters containing anthrax spores lasting several weeks resulting in 5 deaths and 17 infections
May 31, 2009 Assassination of Dr. George Tiller Murder of a nationally known physician that performed late-term abortions June 10, 2009 U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
Shootings Shooting attack of a believed neo-Nazi resulting in 1 death November 5, 2009 Fort Hood Shootings Shooting attack of a believed Islamic extremist resulting in 13 deaths and 30 wounded
August 5, 2012 Wisconsin Sikh Temple Shootings Shooting attack at the Oak Creek Sikh Temple in Wisconsin resulting in 6 deaths and 4 wounded
February 18, 2010 Austin, Texas IRS Airplane Attack Aircraft attack on an IRS office building by a believed anti-government / anti- corporate business extremist resulting in 1 death
April 15, 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing Bombing at the Boston Marathon resulting in 3 deaths and several hundred injuries.

June 17, 2015 Charleston Church Shooting Shooting attack at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church resulting in 9 killed and 3 injured
December 2, 2015 San Bernardino Inland Regional
Center Shootings
Shooting attack resulting in 14 people killed and 24 injured at the San Bernardino County Department of Public Health training event and holiday party
June 12, 2016 Orlando Pulse Nightclub Shootings Shooting attack resulting in 49 people killed and 58 injuries at the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando
October 1, 2017 Las Vegas Route 91 Harvest Music
Festival Shootings
Shooting attack at the Harvest Music Festival by a lone sniper from the Mandalay Bay Hotel resulting in 58 killed and 851 injured February 14, 2018 Parkland High School Shooting Shooting attack by a student at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School resulting in 17 people killed and 17 injured
October 27, 2018 Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting Shooting attack at the Tree of Life Synagogue resulting in 11 people killed and 7 injured
August 3, 2019 El Paso Walmart Shooting Shooting attack at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas believed to be targeting Hispanic individuals resulting in 23 people killed and 22 injured March 16, 2021 Atlanta Spa Shootings Shooting attack at three spas / massage parlors in the Atlanta, Georgia area resulting in 8 deaths
December 25, 2021 Waukesha Christmas Parade Attack Lone attacker driving a vehicle through the annual Christmas parade in Wisconsin resulting in 6 people killed and 62 injured
May 24, 2022 Robb Elementary School Shooting Shooting attack by a former student at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, resulting in 22 deaths and 17 injuries
October 25, 2023
Schemengees Bar & Grille and
Sparetime Recreation Bowling Alley
Shooting*
*This is a developing story as of 10/26/2023
Shooting attack at multiple locations in Lewiston, Maine, leaving 18 people dead and at least 50 injured
Table 71: Domestic Terrorism Examples

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Post 9/11
After September 11, 2001, the United States has increased its security policies and procedures at the national and local level. Since then, Federal Grants for counter-terrorism have increased to approximately seventy- five billion dollars per year from federal and state governments. These grants have provided local counties and cities funds to strengthen their security procedures, implement needed mitigation actions, or provide first responders with specialized training and equipment.39

Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) are a specific type of threat that must be considered by any community.

For the Lancaster area, this may involve the activation of a WMD within the area or a large-scale attack in a nearby location. Consequently, ongoing awareness and training of local emergency responders, government, and healthcare providers is important to ensure that such events are quickly identified and managed.

Five Types of WMD That Could be Used by Terrorists
WMD can be segregated into five categories using the acronym B-NICE: Biological, Nuclear, Incendiary, Chemical and Explosive.

1. Four common types of biological agents are bacteria, viruses, rickettsia, and toxins

2. Nuclear terrorism can occur in two different ways
a. Detonation or threat of detonation of a nuclear bomb b. Dispersion of radiological material using a conventional explosive or other dispersal device

3. An incendiary device is any mechanical, electrical, or chemical device used to intentionally initiate combustion and start a fire

4. Chemical agents can be classified into five categories: nerve agents, blister agents, blood agents, choking agents, and irritating agents

5. Explosive devices are the most common WMD (70% of all terrorist attacks) While explosives are the most common method, any of the WMDs listed can be deployed at any time.

Consequently threat awareness and vigilance is critical to prevent future attacks. In one well-known case a plot to detonate a car bomb at the Los Angeles International Airport was uncovered by an alert U.S.

Customers inspector. On December 14, 1999, Ahmed Ressam (aka the Millennium Bomber) was arrested after a U.S. Customs inspector had his vehicle searched after he had successfully boarded a ferry from Canada to Port Angeles, Washington. The inspector is credited for noticing Ressam’s behavior as unusual and ordering a secondary customs search and a check of his passport. As a result, chemicals and explosive timing devices were found in the trunk of his vehicle and his passport was identified as counterfeit. Ressam was subsequently jailed and convicted on multiple counts.

39 http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/28/nation/la-na-911-homeland-money-20110828

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Mass Violence
Defining Mass Violence
Mass violence involves shootings, car or truck attacks against pedestrians, and other targeting that results in harm to multiple victims. As defined by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), an active shooter is an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. The federal definition of “mass killings,” according to the Investigative Assistance for Violent Crimes Act is, “three or more killings in a single incident.” (not including the shooter).

Mass Violence Incidents in the United States
According to the FBI40, from 2021 to 2022 there were 111 active shooter incidents in the U.S. that resulted in 556 casualties (203 people killed, and 353 people wounded, excluding the shooters). Of those 111 active shooter incidents, 50 occurred in 2022, with the 5 highest casualty counts listed below:

Casualty Rank Casualty Count Killed Wounded Location
1 55 7 48 Central Avenue, Highland Park, Illinois
2 38 21 17 Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas
3 33 5 28 Club Q, Colorado Springs, Colorado
4 23 0 23 36th Street Station, Brooklyn, New York
5 13 10 3 Tops Friendly Markets, Buffalo, New York

40 U.S., Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2022.

Map 44: Active Shooter Locations with Five Highest Casualty Counts (2022)

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Estimated Impact of an Event
If a terrorist incident or mass violence events were to occur, the consequences to local populations and employment may be significant depending on the site or sites targeted. The table below provides the estimated impact of a disaster using a 0.1% loss baseline.

Category
(U.S. Census 2023 Estimate)
City of Lancaster Impact if a 0.1% Loss Occurs
Population 166,236 166
Persons With a Disability 13,964 14
Persons 65 and Over 18,619 19
Persons in Poverty 29,258 29
Total Employment* 86,688 87
Table 72: Estimated Population and Economic Loss of Terrorist Events *City of Lancaster Comprehensive Annual Report Fiscal Year End 2021 Based on a 0.1% loss projection, more than 160 people could be impacted (either directly or indirectly) and 87 jobs lost (either temporarily or permanently). Since a terrorist or mass violence target will likely focus on public meeting venues, commercial structures, or transportation routes, the projected impact is focused on population and employment (see Community Profile section for population and economic data). In addition, those with a disability, 65 and over, and those in poverty may experience challenges in responding to and recovering from an event. In addition, the socially vulnerable populations (those aged 65 and over, individuals with disabilities, those living in poverty, and the unhoused) are particularly at risk during such events due to potential difficulties in evacuating, accessing emergency services, and recovering from trauma. Using a 0.1% loss baseline, an estimated 19 persons aged 65 and over, 14 persons with a disability, and 29 persons in poverty could be affected. Although the exact impact on the unhoused population is difficult to quantify, they are especially vulnerable in these situations due to their lack of shelter, limited access to timely information, and increased exposure to the immediate and long-term effects of violence.

Impact of Climate Change
The City of Lancaster is subject to terrorism and mass violence but there is no direct evidence of climate change impacting the occurrence of either event. Except that protests around climate change can escalate into violence and occur anywhere in the region.

Impact of Land Use and Development
There is no anticipated relationship between terrorism and mass violence in terms of land use or development.

Impact of Population Patterns
If a terrorism event or mass violence situation occurs in Lancaster, overall population patterns are not expected to change.

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FEMA Disasters Declarations
No disaster declarations.

Cal OES Open State of Emergency Proclamations
No open emergency proclamations declared.

Risk of Future Terrorism and Mass Violence Events
For the City of Lancaster the risk of future terrorism and mass violence events was estimated by the Working Group using the following weighted formula:

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration)

The result was a terrorism and mass violence risk rating of 2.91 (see Annex C Working Group HMP Risk Assessment Survey for additional details):

Hazard Probability Magnitude Warning Time Duration Risk Terrorism and Mass
Violence 2.63 2.71 4.00 3.13 2.91

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Terrorism and Mass Violence Vulnerabilities
The probability that an individual or location will be targeted by a terrorist is a function of several factors including the attractiveness of target, the potential for success of the event, and the potential for avoiding identification and capture.

The Los Angeles Sherriff’s Department has developed a broad threat assessment of potential terrorist targets, threat elements, and local response capabilities. The assessment identified potential terrorist targets in Los Angeles County, including Lancaster.

The city of Lancaster as well as the entire country is vulnerable to the threat of terrorism and mass violence.

While the major concern is the loss of life and injuries, other areas of vulnerability include damage to critical infrastructure, business and industry closures leading to severe economic loss, the closure of schools, overcrowded hospitals, panicked citizens, and the long-term impact to mental health and development. Other concerns are outlined in terms of the impact to the overall community below.

General Targets
In addition to the potential for a terrorist or mass violence event occurring at any public or private location, the following list provides a summary of the general categories of targets.  Facilities that store, manufacture or transport
hazardous materials
 Highways and freeways
 Telecommunications facilities
 Federal, state, county and city offices
 Shopping malls
 Schools, churches, and religious centers (e.g.,
mega churches)
 Research facilities
 Electrical facilities
 Water and wastewater facilities, dams
 Bridges and overpasses

Additional potential targets include:
 Military sites and recruiting stations
 Mass transit facilities
 Public buildings and assembly areas
 Controversial businesses and defense industry companies  Clinics and hospitals
 Places where large groups of people congregate (e.g., the BLVD)  Law enforcement offices
 Stadiums and concert arenas
 Correctional facilities (out of planning control for this document)  California Aqueduct (out of the planning area for this document, but has an impact on the Lancaster area)

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General William J. Fox Airfield
Located in the City of Lancaster with access to the 14 Antelope Valley Freeway, General William J. Fox Airfield facilitates over 58,000 general aviation takeoffs and landings each year. The airport was originally constructed by the County of Los Angeles and open for business in 1959. Today the airport is still owned and operated by the County, is publicly available to general aviation aircraft 24-hours a day seven days a week, and is home to over 200 based aircraft, a restaurant, and several aviation-related businesses.

Additionally, the airport is home to the U.S. Department of Forestry’s local air tanker base as well as an aviation museum.

Airfields could be vulnerable in a terrorism or mass violence incident due to factors such as open access points, large crowds, and presence of hazardous materials. The General William J Fox airfield has multiple access points for vehicles and personnel, which can make it more attractive to potential terrorism/mass violence events. The airfield could have large numbers of passengers, employees, and visitors congregating in various areas such as terminals, parking lots, and public spaces, presenting potential targets for attackers. Airfields may have storage facilities for hazardous materials or fuels, which could pose additional risks if targeted during a terrorist or mass violence incident.

Figure 39: General William J. Fox Airfield

Map 45: General William J. Fox Airfield Map

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US Army and Air Force Recruiting Offices
The US Army and Air Force recruitment offices in Lancaster actively seek out qualified individuals who meet the physical, educational, and moral standards required to serve in the military. They provide information about the different branches of the military and the various career opportunities available within each branch.

Military recruitment offices like the US Army and Air Force recruitment offices in Lancaster, can be vulnerable to terrorism or mass violence incidents due to several factors. Recruitment offices are often located in civilian areas with easy public access. This accessibility can make them susceptible to attacks by individuals seeking to cause harm. Military recruitment offices symbolize a military establishment and can be seen as high-profile targets for individuals or groups opposed to military actions or policies. Compared to military bases or installations, recruitment offices may have fewer security measures in place, such as perimeter barriers, armed guards, or stringent access controls.

Map 46: US Army and Air Force Recruiting Offices Map

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Impact on the Community
Following a terrorist attack or mass violence incident, panic, intense media interest, and the convergence of injured and possibly contaminated persons at local hospitals and urgent care centers can be expected. While local, state, and federal agencies will be mobilized to respond to a terrorist event, it will take time for assistance to arrive. Many specialized resources (such as military response teams) may need to be airlifted to the area requiring local resources to manage the initial phases of an emergency – especially in the case of a mass casualty event. The initial response phase may range from hours to a day or more. Consequently, a rapid assessment of the scope of the incident and activation of local emergency response resources will be critical to manage the situation.

Key issues include:
 Activation of local and regional Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs)  Designation of casualty collection points and field triage / treatment sites  Transportation (for personnel, equipment, and supplies to the impact location as well as casualty and public evacuation)
 Isolation (if needed to prevent further contamination)  Use of personal protection equipment (PPEs)
 Communications (including internal communication, media response, and public bulletins)  Decontamination points (if required)
Efforts to assess the situation and provide clear, easy to follow emergency management instructions to the public are essential. The following table describes examples of the considerations expected during the initial stages of a terrorist event.

Condition Description
Down Wind
Evacuation
A large release may result in a lethal plume that may travel for miles. Emergency agencies in neighboring jurisdictions must be advised of the release and included in incident management activities.

Traffic
Restrictions
and Congestion
Roads, freeways and transit systems may need to be closed to contain the incident. Regardless of the need, panic may cause some persons to self-evacuate, traffic congestion and gridlock conditions and confusion may result. These factors will slow response by emergency agencies and specialized resources to affected areas. Detailed traffic management plans will need to be developed.

Self-Transport
to Medical
Providers
Injured and contaminated victims may leave the immediate site of the incident and then go to hospitals. In most cases, the care provider will not be equipped to decontaminate victims or treat terrorist related casualties. This can extend the scope of the incident, potentially lead to secondary contamination and strain local medical and emergency response resources Hospitals impacted by an influx of casualties who have not been decontaminated will have to establish decontamination area and may not be able to continue providing treatment.

Panic Victims In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist event, responders should anticipate a number of people who think they have been exposed to or contaminated by the agent(s) even though there has been no actual exposure. Provisions must be made to manage these persons and provide supportive care as necessary.

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Condition Description
Scarce Supplies Equipment and supplies needed to manage the consequences of a terrorist event will be scarce.

Sufficient pharmacological supplies may not be available. Antidotes and other drugs used to treat WMD victims are usually not stockpiled in sufficient quantities for use in a mass casualty incident. Efforts to secure additional supplies will be an immediate need. Personnel involved in managing potential terrorist event must be aware of these concerns. Measures to address these issues must be incorporated into the Incident Action Plan and should be considered and assessed throughout the management of the WMD incident.

Table 73: Terrorist Event Considerations

Law Enforcement Role in Combatting Terrorism
The following are steps and efforts that various law enforcement agencies are taking to combat terrorist and mass violence activities:

1. On-going attention to known potential targets within the service area

2. Identification of new potential targets within the service area

3. Identification of suspicious persons, places, or things which may be related to potential terrorist activity

4. Recognition of potential surveillance and intelligence-gathering activities

5. Recognition of potential terrorist involvement in routine crimes (ID theft, shoplifting, credit card fraud, forgeries, etc.)

6. Organizing and informing community resources regarding anti- terrorism

7. Ability to respond safely and effectively to a terrorist incident or use of a WMD

8. Identify the terrorist group

9. Monitor weapons / materials

10. Threat / vulnerability assessment

11. Counter surveillance

12. Target hardening

13. Awareness of suspicious behavior as terrorists’ or mass violence perpetrator egress from target

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Regional Response, Mitigation, and Prevention Activities The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department is the lead law enforcement agency for the region in the event of a terrorist or mass violence event. Individual cities will be responsible for consequence management. The following are practices or projects that are currently active in the Region.

Emergency Response Actions
The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department will act as the lead agency for crisis management, perimeter security, access control, traffic/crowd control, evacuations, notifications, and safeguarding evidence. Crisis management activities may include:
 Investigation, tracking, and maintaining scene integrity.  Coordinating coroner issues with the Los Angeles County Coroner’s Department.  Use of Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) or Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) units  Assisting with damage assessment and fatalities management The Los Angeles County Fire Department is the lead agency for fire response, hazardous materials events, and medical/rescue operations. The County Fire Department provides support as necessary to the Sheriff for Crisis Management activities. Existing procedures, such as the Fire Department’s Hazardous Materials Response procedures and NBC Response Protocols are used as necessary. The Fire Department assists with:
 Fire and rescue operations
 Emergency medical services coordination
 Perimeter and access control
 Evacuation operations
 Notifications
 Safeguarding evidence
 Damage assessment
 Fatalities management
 Addressing environmental needs
 Obtaining personnel with radiological training
 Insuring decontamination procedures (radiological and chemical) are in place  Ensuring biological agents are contained

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Mitigation and Prevention
The following examples provide a summary of mitigation and prevention activities that support the Lancaster Area.

Canine Unit
The Los Angeles County Sheriff maintains five (5) specially training canines to detect explosives as part of the Arson/Explosive Detail and one chemical/biological threat K-9 as part of the Hazardous Materials Detail.

Equipment and JRIC
In September 2012, Los Angeles County received a $61 million grant from the Department of Homeland Security. The grant is intended to allow the greater Los Angeles region to increase its capacity to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism and natural disasters by improving interagency communication and emergency response capability. 41 In past years the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department has used previous grants to pay for equipment, such as an aerial video downlink technology, mobile surveillance cameras, tactical robots, radiation detection devices and bomb suits.

The grant funds many law enforcement, training, communications, and equipment programs, as well as the Joint Regional Intelligence Center (JRIC). The JRIC is staffed by federal, state and local intelligence analysts and investigators responsible for gathering and analyzing intelligence in the 44,000-square-mile territory surrounding Los Angeles. The JRIC opened in 2006 and is the largest of approximately 40 facilities nationwide used to coordinate data from 200 agencies in seven counties.

Terrorism Early Warning Group
In 1996, the Los Angeles County Sheriff Department established the Terrorism Early Warning (TEW) Group.42 The purpose of the TEW Group is to act as an interdisciplinary group in which local, state, and federal agencies work together to share information and combine resources, and to enhance the ability to identify and respond to acts and threats of terrorism. This interagency approach allows for early response and enforcement by clearing the communication channels between agencies and creating an environment that facilitates information and intelligence sharing. The result is an effective network that has the ability to identify information which might indicate impending terrorist activity. This group is a significant resource for identifying and assessing potential threats, making appropriate notifications and recommendations, and aiding in mission planning and the efficient allocation of resources.

Terrorism Mitigation Strategies
The City of Lancaster publishes emergency preparedness information, downloads, and videos on its Web site, including the LA County Emergency Survival Guide that includes a section on terrorism. In addition, the city has an active CERT program with volunteers trained to assist in disasters. Lancaster has implemented the CodeRED Notification System that allows the City to telephone all areas or targeted areas in case of an emergency situation. Lancaster’s Emergency Operations Plan addresses emergency response actions the Emergency Operations Center will take in the event of a terrorist event.

41 http://mayor.lacity.org/PressRoom/LACITYP_023350
42 http://file.lacounty.gov/lasd/cms1_144939.pdf

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PART III: ANNEXES
SECTION 15: ANNEX A: RESOURCES
The following resources were used in the development of the Lancaster Hazard Mitigation Plan. In addition to the resources listed, information sources included city documents such as General Plans, Master Plans, Comprehensive Financial Reports, studies, and reports.

Name Category Web Site Address Description
Antelope Valley CERT Local and Regional
Law Enforcement
and Government
http://antelopevalleycert.com/ CERT information
Antelope Valley Search and
Rescue
Local and Regional
Law Enforcement
http://www.avsearchandrescue.
com/
Search and rescue volunteer
information
Army Corps of Engineers Federal Government www.usace.army.mil Flood and dam information Association of State
Floodplain Managers
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.floods.org Flood mitigation and planning
information
Building Seismic Safety
Council (BSSC)
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.bssconline.org Earthquake and seismic code
information
California Department of
Conservation: Southern
California Regional Office
State Government www.consrv.ca.gov Earthquake and flood information
California Department of
Corrections & Rehabilitation
State Government www.cdcr.ca.gov State Prison Information California Department of
Transportation (Caltrans)
State Government www.dot.ca.gov Transportation and traffic information
California Department of
Water Resources (DWR)
State Government www.water.ca.gov Flood information
California Division of Forestry
& Fire Protection
State Government www.fire.ca.gov Fire codes, landslide, wildfire mitigation and programs
California Division of Mines
and Geology (DMG)
State Government www.consrv.ca.gov Earthquake information California Geological Survey,
Department of Conservation
State Government www.consrv.ca.gov Earthquake information California Office of Emergency
Services (Cal OES)
State Government www.calema.ca.gov State hazard mitigation guidance California Resources Agency State Government www.resources.ca.gov

Earthquake information

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Name Category Web Site Address Description
City of Lancaster Local and Regional
Government
www.cityoflancaster.org

General Plan and
Comprehensive Annual
Financial Report (CAFR)
Decline of the Californios: A
Social History of the Spanish-
Speaking Californias, 1846-
1890
Publications Author: Leonard Pitt
Department of Homeland
Security
Federal Government www.dhs.gov Terrorism response,
preparedness, and threats
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA)
Federal Government www.epa.gov Hazardous materials information Federal Bureau of
Investigation
Federal Law
Enforcement
www.fbi.gov Terrorism response,
preparedness, and threats
Federal Communications
Division
Federal Government http://transition.fcc.gov/ Energy interdependence information
Federal Emergency
Management Agency,
Mitigation Agency
Federal Government www.fema.gov/about/divisions/
mitigation.shtm
Federal mitigation plan
requirements and information
Flood information and maps
Firewise Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.firewise.org Fire / wildfire mitigation and
programs
Fresno Bee News Organization www.fresnobee.com/2011/07/3 0/2482785/15-2nteractive-map-
a-history-of-wildfires.html
History of Wildfires in California
Greater Antelope Valley
Economic Alliance (GAVEA)
Business and
Commercial
Association
https://socalleadingedge.org/wp-
content/uploads/2014/04/GAVEA_Indu
strial_Report2009.pd
Antelope Valley Industrial Base
and Vacancy Report 2009
International Code Council,
Los Angele s Basin Chapter
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.icclabc.org Building Code information
Los Angeles County Fire
Department
Local and Regional
Government
www.lacofd.org Fire codes and wildfire mitigation
and programs
Los Angeles County Office of
Emergency Services
Local and Regional
Government
www.lacoa.org Disaster and mitigation
information. Disaster
Management Areas.

Los Angeles County Office of
the Assessor
Local and Regional
Government
www.assessor.lacounty.gov Property tax information
Los Angeles County Public
Works Department
Local and Regional
Government
www.ladpw.org Earthquake and debris removal
information

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Name Category Web Site Address Description
Los Angeles Department of
Public works
Local and Regional
Government
http://dpw.lacounty.gov/ Flood and water resource
information
Los Angeles Search and
Rescue
Local and Regional
Law Enforcement
http://www.lacosar.org/ Search and rescue volunteer
information
Los Angeles Sheriff’s
Department
Local Law
Enforcement
www.sheriff.lacounty.gov Terrorism response,
preparedness, and threats

Detention Center information
Los Angeles Times News Organization www.documentcloud.org/docu ments/32248-1971earthquake-

2.html
San Fernando Earthquake
information
National Center for
Biotechnology Information
Federal Government http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ Health information National Flood Insurance
Program (NFIP)
Federal Government www.fema.gov/nfip Flood information
National Interagency Fire
Center (NIFC)
Federal Government www.nifc.gov Fire codes and wildfire mitigation and programs
National Resources
Conservation Service (NRCS),
US Department of Agriculture
Federal Government www.nrcs.gov Flood mitigation, landslide, and watershed projects
National Transportation Safety
Board (NTSB)
Federal Government www.ntsb.gov San Bruno Pipeline Explosion Information
National Weather Service Federal Government www.noaa.gov Weather statistics Office of the State Fire
Marshal (OSFM)
State Government www.osfm.fire.ca.gov Fire codes and wildfire mitigation and programs
Pipelines and Hazards
Materials Safety Division
Federal Government www.phmsa.dot.gov Pipeline Data
Southern California Area
Governments (SCAG)
Local and Regional
Government
www.scag.ca.gov Principal Property Tax Payers
and Employers
Southern California
Earthquake Center (SCEC)
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.scec.org Earthquake and fault information
Structural Engineers
Association of Southern
California
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.seaosc.org Summary Report: Study of
Historical and Design Wind
Speeds in the Los Angeles Area,
June 19, 2010
Terrorism Research Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.terrorism-research.com Terrorism Information –
Terrorism Categories
U.S. Census Bureau Federal Government www.census.gov Demographic information U.S. Department of the
Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation
Federal Government www.usbr.gov Flood information

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Name Category Web Site Address Description
U.S. Fire Administration
(USFA) of the Federal
Emergency Management
Agency
Federal Government www.usfa.fema.gov Fire codes and wildfire mitigation and programs
U.S. Geological Survey Federal Government www.usgs.gov Earthquake information U.S. Global Change Research
Program
Federal Government www.globalchange.gov/nca4 Fourth Annual National Climate Assessment
U.S. State Department Federal Government www.state.gov

Terrorism Information
USGS National Landslide
Information Center
Federal Government www.landslides.usgs/nlic Landslide information USGS Water Resources Federal Government www.water.usgs.gov Flood information Western Regional Climate
Center
Federal Government http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/ Weather statistics Western States Seismic Policy
Council (WSSPC)
Research,
Educational, and
Standards
Organizations
www.wsspc.org Earthquake information

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

2024 City of Lancaster Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 16-1 12/06/2024
SECTION 16: ANNEX B: PUBLIC EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND

RISK SURVEY
A 2023 Public Disaster Preparedness and Risk Survey was used to encourage public participation in mitigation planning and provide input into the Hazard Mitigation planning process. The survey was advertised via the City’s web page and social media announcements.

City of Lancaster Web Site Facebook Post
Twitter Ready Lancaster Twitter

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Instagram Ready Lancaster Web Page

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Disaster Preparedness and Risk Survey Results
The Disaster Preparedness Risk Survey was used to encourage public participation in mitigation planning and provide input into the Hazard Mitigation Planning process. The survey included questions regarding perceived risks, actual losses, and mitigation activities.

The survey also provided a forum for the public to provide their input on future planning efforts and enables emergency management personnel to better focus their mitigation efforts. The following tables provide the survey results. Surveys were made available online via Lancaster’s website and social media platforms.

The data gathered was used to help local officials better plan for disasters as well as communicate with citizens and educate residents on mitigation steps to reduce the risk of loss. The survey was administered and maintained by MLC and Associates. A total of 126 completed surveys were received. The results of the survey are provided below. In some cases, comments were summarized, consolidated, and edited for clarity.

1. I live in another city and commute to Lancaster:

Value Count Percent
Yes 11 8.8%
No 114 91.2%

Yes
9%
No
91%
I live in another city and commute to Lancaster:

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2. Please select your age range:

Value Count Percent
15 to 24 years old 4 3.3%
25 to 34 years old 11 8.9%
35 to 44 years old 30 24.4%
45 to 54 years old 21 17.1%
55 to 64 years old 29 23.6%
65 years and over 28 22.8%

3. What transportation would you use during an emergency?

Value Count Percent
Own vehicle 112 88.9%
Carpool with family/friend 9 7.1%
Public transportation 3 2.4%
Facility provided transportation 2 1.6%

15 to 24 years old
3%
25 to 34 years old
9%
35 to 44 years old
24%
45 to 54 years old
17%
55 to 64 years old
24%
65 years and over
23%
Please select your age range:

Own vehicle
89%
Carpool with
family/friend
7%
Public
transportation
2%
Facility provided
transportation
2%
What transportation would you use during an emergency?

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4. I feel that I am prepared for a disaster:

Value Count Percent
Strongly disagree 5 4.0%
Disagree 18 14.4%
Neutral 37 29.6%
Agree 55 44.0%
Strongly agree 10 8.0%

5. During the past 5 years, myself or someone in my household directly experienced a natural disaster? (This could be an earthquake, wildfire, flood, or other type of natural disaster)

Value Count Percent
Yes 41 32.8%
No 84 67.2%

Strongly disagree
4%
Disagree
14%
Neutral
30%
Agree
44%
Strongly agree
8%
I feel that I am prepared for a disaster:

Yes
33%
No
67%
During the past 5 years, myself or someone in my household directly experienced a natural disaster: (This could be an earthquake, wildfire, flood, or other type of natural disaster)

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6. In case of emergencies, I maintain and store for my household (myself and my family):

Value Count Percent
A flashlight with extra batteries 106 86.2%
A first aid kit 103 83.7%
Prescription medications and/or other needed medical supplies 101 82.1% At least a 3-day supply of water (minimum 1 gallon per person per day) 98 79.7% At least a 3-day supply of non-perishable food (with manual can opener) 91 74.0% Other 21 17.1%

Other emergency items include:
 Batteries
 Drinks
 Earthquake kit
 Food
 Generator (some including gas storage)

 Go bag
 Pet emergency supplies
 Portable battery / power bank
 Sleeping bags / camping supplies
Other miscellaneous responses included 26 additional emergency supplies.

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7. I have a family emergency plan that includes:

Value Count Percent
I don’t have a family emergency plan 56 45.2%
An out of state contact 42 33.9%
A pre-designated meeting location 36 29.0%
Training so that everyone in my household understands what to do in the event of a disaster such as fire or earthquake 29 23.4%
Registration at my children's schools so that someone in my household is authorized to pick them up in an emergency / an understanding of my children’s school emergency plans 21 16.9%
An understanding of my children's school emergency plans 14 11.3% Other 9 7.3%

Other emergency plans include:
 Bug out and bug in plans / kits
 Mobile GMR, CB and satellite phones
 Photos and important documents in an easy to
access fire proof safe
 Spare gas and diesel located away from the
house

Other miscellaneous responses included individuals who did not have a family plan or lived independently.

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8. Examples of actions that I have taken to reduce the impact of disasters on my home include:

Value Count Percent
Secured furniture, bookshelves, pictures, home computers, televisions, etc. to prevent them from falling in an earthquake. 55 59.8%
Brush clearance 38 41.3%
Automatic gas shut off valve 23 25.0%
Roof replacement from wood shake to fire resistant materials 18 19.6% Other 8 8.7%
Structural reinforcement 8 8.7%
Foundation reinforcement 7 7.6%
Chimney reinforcement 3 3.3%

Other home mitigation examples include:
 Gas shutoff tool next to exit door
 Removed tall pine trees around the outside of
the home
 Sand bags

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9. How concerned are you about the following natural disasters (and other events) affecting Lancaster?

Value Very
Concerned
Somewhat
Concerned
Neutral Not Very
Concerned
Not
Concerned
Extended Power Outage 77 38 5 2 1
Extreme Heat 66 39 13 4 2
Earthquake 56 46 17 1 3
Climate Change 56 22 13 7 24
Drought 48 44 14 11 7
Wildfire 43 28 21 16 12
Terrorism / Mass Casualty
(including active shooter events) 42 44 14 13 7
Cybersecurity 41 46 24 4 5
Hazardous Material release 33 30 31 12 13
Pandemic 31 34 21 13 20
Windstorm 29 49 22 15 7
Severe Winter Storm 26 45 23 12 15
Flood 19 35 31 23 14
Coastal Erosion 17 23 24 11 42
Landslide/Debris Flow 14 20 29 28 28
Tsunami 5 9 23 22 57

0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
How concerned are you about the following natural disasters (and other events) aﬀecfing Lancaster?
Very Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
Neutral
Not Very Concerned
Not Concerned

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10. I have the following types of insurance: (check all that apply)

Value Count Percent
Home Owners Insurance - including Fire Coverage 105 90.5% Earthquake Insurance 27 23.3%
Flood Insurance 19 16.4%
Other 12 10.3%

Other types of insurance include:
 Car Insurance
 Home Owners (not sure if fire is covered)
 Medical Insurance
 Renters Insurance
 Roadside Insurance / Assistance

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11. What do you see as vulnerable in your community?

Value Very
Vulnerable
Somewhat
Vulnerable
Neutral Not Very
Vulnerable
Not
Vulnerable
Human (life and/or injuries) 68 39 12 3 1
Infrastructure (hospitals, fire / police
stations, bridges, freeways/highways,
utilities, schools, etc.) 67 38 14 1 2
Economic (businesses, jobs, etc.) 55 48 11 2 2
Governance (maintaining order
and/or providing public amenities and
services) 53 43 14 6 5
Environmental (forests, rangeland,
waterways, etc.) 38 40 21 9 12
Cultural/Historic (libraries, museums,
fairgrounds, etc.) 22 49 25 11 13

0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 Huma n (l ife and/or
i njuri es )
Infra s tructure
(hospitals, ﬁre / police
stafions, bridges,
freeways /hi ghways ,
ufilifies, schools, etc.)
Economic (bus ines s es ,
jobs , etc.)
Governance
(mai ntai ning order
and/or provi di ng publ ic
amenifies and services)
Envi ronmenta l (fores ts ,
ra ngel and, waterways ,
etc.)
Cul tura l / His toric
(l ibrari es , mus eums ,
fairgrounds , etc.)
What do you see as vulnerable in your community?
Very Vulnerabl e Somewhat Vulnera ble Neutral Not Very Vul nerabl e Not Vulnera ble

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12. The greatest obstacles I face in preparing for a disaster are:

Value Count Percent
Lack of funds / High costs 71 62.3%
A need for additional community provided resources such as (Emergency Shelter, Improved Emergency Notification Capabilities, Evacuation Plan) 51 44.7% Lack of knowledge / A need for more information on what to do 31 27.2% Lack of time 26 22.8%
Lack of motivation or interest 17 14.9%
Other 13 11.4%

Other obstacles include:
 Being disabled, I need help
 California laws
 Health
 Lack of emergency transportation for
disabled/deaf/homebound early residents plus
notifications for the same group
 Lack of space to store emergency supplies,
since I live in an apartment
 Sand for sand bags
 Storage area for supplies

Other resources needed include:
 Allow for more cost effective trash disposal so
people don’t dump waste, including hazardous
materials in the desert
 Need an easy package or list

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13. List other significant hazards or events that you are concerned about. Note: Responses were edited and summarized to consolidate similar comments.

Crime
 Crime, not enough law enforcement
 Criminal activity
 Graffiti
 Mass riots
 Riots
 Theft and burglaries
Homelessness
 Drug addiction and homeless crime
 Homeless blocking safe passage into businesses
 Homeless population in Lancaster is making the city unlivable. Trash and debris leftover from them.

Do not feel safe in Lancaster anymore.
 Homelessness and crime should be our top concern, not climate change. We need more officers to protect the citizens of Lancaster.
 Increased crime from homeless people living at the Ave I and J wash, bridge motels.  Lancasters increasing homeless problem that the city is allowing to get out of control Infrastructure
 Freeway 14 shutdown
 Lack of transportation for disabled elderly in emergency  Roadways and traffic
Weather
 Flood
 Snowfall
 Solar flare
 Solar flare wiping out all electronics
Other
 Availability of sand /sand bags, back up power, food/water/shelter  Civil war from the GQP
 Earthquake
 EMP attacks and World War 3
 EMPs, volcanoes, food shortage, medicine shortage, gangs holding communities hostage, HYDROGEN disaster, BORDER Takeover, war on USA land, tornadoes, water shortage across the world, Anarchy of the Law, atomic weapons, lack of community safe areas to go, lack of sign marked evacuation routes, in a bad earthquake or fire who's going to check on the senior citizens?  Fake news
 Government overreach
 Government spending not properly utilized for our safety during these natural disasters  Lack of quality emergency pediatric doctors

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 Lack of law enforcement
 Lack of traffic enforcement
 Loss of food with power outages when on fixed low income  Man made failures
 Martial law
 Military target and risk due to location of top secret facilities within residences  Next generation
 Personal safety
 Retail snatch and grabs
 Terrorism in LA that will impact Lancaster indirectly  Trafficking

14. What actions can local government take to help you become better prepared for disasters? Note:

Responses were edited and summarized to consolidate similar comments.

Communication
 Ability to receive disaster notifications when power is not available. Lancaster radio station with an emergency delivery system accessible by battery operated device.  Communication via television station, email, or flyers for details and any other information on where to go and where to take animals
 Continued alerts
 Email communication
 Find ways to communicate with persons like myself who don't use social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc)  Go over evacuation plans and notices. Ensure that everyone is registered for this type of communication
 Have an alert system for all residents
 Increased community communication and outreach for disaster awareness plans and local government provided resources
 Media or cell alert if expected
 Provide clear info on where to search for answers on what to do in certain situations  Provide more information
Community Engagement and Support
 Check on the citizens especially ELDERLY and those living alone  Have an emergency event fair, where items & info would be available for free or purchase  Make the community more aware

Evacuation and Shelter
 A meeting place stocked & ready to receive the citizens of Lancaster especially ELDERLY/DISABILED AND CHILDREN.

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Resources and Supplies
 Choose better priorities that are a resource for all walks of life not just select groups  Give out flashlights
 Grants for community members to purchase emergency supplies needed  Information and resources like emergency kits for low income families  List what to do and where to go in a disaster before it happens  Plan to arrange evacuation transportation/shelter for disabled/ill elderly who use walkers and wheelchairs
 Provide 3 day emergency kits, sand and sand bags, and water  Provide dehydrated food kits that last 5 years
 Provide low cost access to supplies (i.e., MRE's, secure storage buildings for backyards, HAM radio training and radios)
 Provide more affordable resources
 Provide some resources or access to free preparation materials  Snow removal machine and machine to repair roads full of sludge Safety Measures
 Bury all power lines
 Control crime
 Remove houseless dwellers at all freeway off-ramps, as multiple FIRES are occurring  Trim trees on La Gabriella Dr
Training and Education
 Conduct neighborhood training
 Educate the community
 Education of disaster actions when necessary
 Hold classes on emergency preparedness training
 Offer gatherings where the authorities would teach residents about what to do in a disaster  Training in neighborhoods
Other
 A lot less taxes
 Assist in paying / financing generators
 Be prepared at all times
 Better law enforcement
 Forthcoming real time information from elected officials in the Lancaster area that includes press conferences. Also, be proactive in clearing debris and objects blocking the gutters frequently prior to flooding. Fox the roads on the Eastside of Lancaster because they're deteriorating and damaging vehicles (tires).
 Having a local news would be great again
 Keep our community clean so that events and hazards aren't worse when they happen  Reduce costs and gun laws
 Set up TRAINED CIVIL DEFENSE block leaders as liaison to the community

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

2024 City of Lancaster Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 16-16 12/06/2024

15. Prior to receiving this survey, were you aware of Lancaster’s hazard mitigation plan?

Value Count Percent
Yes 13 10.4%
No 112 89.6%

Y es
10%
No
90%
Prior to receiving this survey, were you aware of
Lancaster's hazard mitigation plan?

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

2024 City of Lancaster Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 17-1 12/06/2024
SECTION 17: ANNEX C: WORKING GROUP HMP RISK ASSESSMENT SURVEY The following Risk Assessment Survey was distributed to determine the relative risks associated with the major hazards identified in the Lancaster area. This was the same process as used in previous hazard mitigation plans so that a comparative analysis could be conducted. The information was used to prioritize the threats to the region. Each hazard was rated in terms of probability (i.e. likelihood of occurrence), magnitude / severity, warning time, and duration. Ratings range from 1 (low) to 4 (high). The components of the formula are:

Category
Degree of Risk
Level ID Description Value Weighting
Factor
Probability
Unlikely  Extremely rare with no documented history of occurrences or events.  Annual probability of less than 0.001. 1
45%
Possibly  Rare occurrences with at least one documented or anecdotal historic event.  Annual probability that is between 0.01 and 0.001. 2
Likely  Occasional occurrences with at least two or more documented historic events.  Annual probability that is between 0.1 and 0.01. 3
Highly Likely  Frequent events with a well-documented history of occurrence.  Annual probability that is greater than 0.1. 4
Magnitude/
Severity
Negligible
 Negligible property damages (less than 5% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure).
 Injuries or illnesses are treatable with first aid and there are no deaths.  Negligible quality of life lost.
 Shut down of critical facilities for less than 24 hours. 1 30%
Limited
 Slight property damages (greater than 5% and less than 25% of critical and non- critical facilities and infrastructure).
 Injuries or illnesses do not result in permanent disability and there are no deaths.  Moderate quality of life lost.
 Shut down of critical facilities for more than 1 day and less than 1 week. 2 Critical
 Moderate property damages (greater than 25% and less than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure).
 Injuries or illnesses result in permanent disability and at least one death.  Shut down of critical facilities for more than 1 week and less than 1 month. 3 Catastrophic
 Severe property damages (greater than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure).
 Injuries or illnesses result in permanent disability and multiple deaths.  Shut down of critical facilities for more than 1 month. 4 Warning Time
Less than 6 hrs Self-explanatory. 4
15% 6 to 12 hrs Self-explanatory. 3
12 to 24 hrs Self-explanatory. 2
More than 24 hrs Self-explanatory. 1
Duration
Less than 6 hrs Self-explanatory. 1
10% Less than 24 hrs Self-explanatory. 2
Less than one wk Self-explanatory. 3
More than one wk Self-explanatory. 4

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Risk Ratings
The final risk levels were estimated using the following equation and weighting scale.

Risk = (0.45 x Probability) + (0.30 x Magnitude/Severity) + (0.15 x Warning Time) + (0.10 x Duration) For the Lancaster region, the following estimates were developed. The final risk scores are shown to compare the results from 2023 to the previous 2018 ratings.

Hazard Weighted
Probability
Weighted
Magnitude
Weighted
Warning
Time
Weighted
Duration
2023 Risk
Rating
2018 Risk
Rating
Ratings
Change
Earthquake (Greater
than Magnitude 6) 3.13 3.00 4.00 3.88 3.29 3.06 0.23
Severe Windstorm 3.88 2.86 1.86 2.50 3.13 2.73 0.40
Power Outage 3.25 3.17 3.14 1.88 3.07 2.65 0.42
Terrorism / Mass
Casualty 2.63 2.71 4.00 3.13 2.91 2.53 0.38
Climate Change 3.00 2.43 1.57 3.50 2.66 2.38 0.28
Hazardous Materials
Release 2.25 2.60 3.43 2.83 2.59 Not
Evaluated N/A
Flood 2.50 2.43 2.29 3.25 2.52 2.28 0.24
Wildfire 2.13 2.00 4.00 3.29 2.48 1.78 0.70
Pandemic 2.33 2.67 1.67 3.33 2.43 Not
Evaluated N/A
Landslide 1.43 1.71 1.86 3.20 1.76 1.76 0.00
Table 74: Risk Ratings

Risk Rating Changes
The Risk Rating changes from 2018 to 2023 reflect several updates to the prioritization of mitigation actions based on several key factors. Additionally, input from the public was considered in evaluating the relative priority of risks to the City (see Annex B: Citizen Emergency Preparedness Survey).  The risk ratings of all hazards (excluding Landslide and those not previously evaluated) have increased from 2018 to 2023. This may be due to heightened awareness as well as a general increase in the pace of unplanned events in recent years. The hazards with the greatest increases were: Wildfire, Power Outage, Severe Windstorm, and Terrorism / Mass Casualty.  Earthquake and Severe Wind remained the top two risks.  Finally, Hazardous Materials Release and Pandemic were added to the survey in 2023 based on the increase in perceived risk of known and unknown materials traveling the City as well as the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

2024 City of Lancaster
Hazard Mitigation Plan

2024 City of Lancaster Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 17-3 12/06/2024

Community Risk Survey

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Risk Assessment Survey Results
The following tables provide the results from the Risk Assessment Survey for the City of Lancaster. Each section of the survey describes a hazard, risks, consequences and raging summary (Note: Zero values are omitted).

Earthquake (Greater that Magnitude 6.0)
Probability – Rate the probability based on historical events Rating Description

N/A Not Applicable
Unlikely Unlikely: Extremely rare with no documented
history of occurrence or events OR an annual
probability less than .1%.

Possible Possible: Rare occurrences with at least one
documented or anecdotal historic event OR an
annual probability between 1% and .1%.

Likely Likely: Occasional occurrences with at least two or more documented historic events OR an
annual probability that is between 10% and 1%.

Highly Likely Highly Likely: Frequent events with a well- documented history of occurrence OR an annual
probability that is greater than 10%.

Magnitude and Severity – How severe was the impact to lives, property, and infrastructure? Rating Description

Negligible Negligible property damages (less than 5% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses are treatable with first aid and there are no deaths. Negligible quality of life lost. Shut down of critical facilities for less than 24 hours.

Moderate quality of life lost. Shut down of critical
facilities for more than 1 day and less than 1 week.

Critical Moderate property damages (greater than 25% and less than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses result in
permanent disability and at least one death. Shut
down of critical facilities for more than 1 week and
less than 1 month.

Catastrophic Severe property damages (greater than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities and infrastructure).

Injuries or illnesses result in permanent disability and multiple deaths. Shut down of critical facilities for
more than 1 month.

Possible

25.0%
Likely

66.7%
Highly Likely

8.3%
Probability - Major Earthquake (M6 or Greater)
Possibly
12%
Likely
63%
Highly Likely
25%
Probability - Major Earthquake (M6 or Greater)
Limited
28%
Critical
43%
Catastrophic
29%
Magnitude/Severity - Earthquake (M6 or Greater)

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Warning Time – How much advance warning have you received for the type of event described? Rating

More than 24 hours
12 to 24 hours
6 to 12 hours
Less than 6 hours or no warning
No knowledge / unknown
Duration – How long will the event last including the time the area will be impacted if the event described above occurs?
Rating

Less than 6 hours
Greater than 6 hours, up to 24 hours
Greater than 24 hours, up to 1 week
More than 1 week
No opinion

Less than 6
hours or no
warning
100%
Warning Time - Earthquake (M6 or Greater)
Greater than 24
hours, up to 1
week
12%
More than 1
week
88%
Duration - Earthquake (M6 or Greater)

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Severe Windstorm
Probability – Rate the probability based on historical events.

Rating Description

N/A Not Applicable
Unlikely Unlikely: Extremely rare with no documented
history of occurrence or events OR an
annual probability less than .1%.

Possible Possible: Rare occurrences with at least one
documented or anecdotal historic event OR
an annual probability between 1% and .1%.

Likely Likely: Occasional occurrences with at least
two or more documented historic events OR
an annual probability that is between 10%
and 1%.

Highly Likely Highly Likely: Frequent events with a well- documented history of occurrence OR an
annual probability that is greater than 10%.

Magnitude and Severity – How severe was the impact to lives, property, and infrastructure? Rating Description

Negligible Negligible property damages (less than 5% of critical and non-critical facilities and
infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses are
treatable with first aid and there are no deaths.

Negligible quality of life lost. Shut down of
critical facilities for less than 24 hours.

Limited Slight property damages (greater than 5% and
less than 25% of critical and non-critical
facilities and infrastructure). Injuries or
illnesses do not result in permanent disability
and there are no deaths. Moderate quality of
life lost. Shut down of critical facilities for more
than 1 day and less than 1 week.

Critical Moderate property damages (greater than 25%
and less than 50% of critical and non-critical
facilities and infrastructure). Injuries or
illnesses result in permanent disability and at
least one death. Shut down of critical facilities
for more than 1 week and less than 1 month.

Catastrophic Severe property damages (greater than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities and
infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses result in
permanent disability and multiple deaths. Shut
down of critical facilities for more than 1 month.

Likely
12%
Highly Likely
88%
Probability - Severe Windstorm
Limited
29%
Critical
57%
Catastrophic
14%
Magnitude/Severity - Severe Windstorm

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Warning Time – How much advance warning have you received for the type of event described? Rating

Less than 6 hours
Greater than 6 hours, up to 24 hours
Greater than 24 hours, up to 1 week
More than 1 week
No opinion

More than 24
hours
43%
12 to 24 hours
43%
Less than 6
hours or no
warning
14%
Warning Time - Severe Windstorm
Greater than 6
hours, up to 24
hours
50%
Greater than 24
hours, up to 1
week
50%
Duration - Severe Windstorm

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Terrorism and Mass Casualty Events
Probability – Rate the probability based on historical events Rating Description

N/A Not Applicable
Unlikely Unlikely: Extremely rare with no
documented history of occurrence or
events OR an annual probability less than
.1%.

Possible Possible: Rare occurrences with at least
one documented or anecdotal historic
event OR an annual probability between
1% and .1%.

Likely Likely: Occasional occurrences with at
least two or more documented historic
events OR an annual probability that is
between 10% and 1%.

Highly Likely Highly Likely: Frequent events with a well- documented history of occurrence OR an
annual probability that is greater than 10%.

Magnitude and Severity – How severe was the impact to lives, property, and infrastructure? Rating Description

Negligible Negligible property damages (less than 5%
of critical and non-critical facilities and
infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses are
treatable with first aid and there are no
deaths. Negligible quality of life lost. Shut
down of critical facilities for less than 24
hours.

Moderate quality of life lost. Shut down of
critical facilities for more than 1 day and
less than 1 week.

Critical Moderate property damages (greater than
25% and less than 50% of critical and non-
critical facilities and infrastructure). Injuries
or illnesses result in permanent disability
and at least one death. Shut down of
critical facilities for more than 1 week and
less than 1 month.

Catastrophic Severe property damages (greater than
50% of critical and non-critical facilities and
infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses result in
permanent disability and multiple deaths.

Shut down of critical facilities for more than
1 month.

Possibly
50%
Likely
37%
Highly Likely
13%
Probability - Terrorism / Mass Casualty (including
active shooter events)
Negligible
14%
Limited
28%
Critical
29%
Catastrophic
29%
Magnitude/Severity - Terrorism / Mass Casualty
(including active shooter events)

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Warning Time – How much advance warning have you received for the type of event described? Rating

Less than 6 hours
Greater than 6 hours, up to 24 hours
Greater than 24 hours, up to 1 week
More than 1 week
No opinion

Less than 6
hours or no
warning
100%
Warning Time - Terrorism / Mass Casualty
(including active shooter events)
Less than 6
hours
12%
Greater than 6
hours, up to 24
hours
13%
Greater than 24
hours, up to 1
week
25%
More than 1
week
50%
Duration - Terrorism / Mass Casualty (including
active shooter events)

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Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Flood
Probability – Rate the probability based on historical events Rating Description