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ATfACHMENT I :
San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
List of Tables
Table 1 Summary of Annual Surplus/ Deficits.............................................................. I- 1 Table 2 Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures ................................................ I- 2 N
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis DRAFT Table 2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
San Joaquin
Fiscal ImpactAnalysis- San Joaquin County County
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures( 2020$
Estimated Annual Revenues/ Expenditures( Rounded)
Item 2025[ 1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout( 2060)
Annual General Fund Revenues( Priorto EIFD Contribution) PropertyTax( withoutElFDContribution) $ 5, 213, 700 $ 10, 026, 300 $ 13, 591, 500 $ 15, 581, 500 $ 18, 298, 200 $ 20, 189, 600 PropeRy Tax in Lieu of VLF 3, 002, 700 $ 5, 774, 400 $ 7, 827, 600 $ 8, 973, 700 $ 10, 538, 300 $ 11, 627, 600 Property Transfer Tax 132, 200 $ 243, 400 $ 326, 000 $ 368, 800 $ 452, 500 $ 519, 900 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax 1, 704, 100 $ 4, 200, 700 $ 6, 111, 600 $ 7, 210, 000 $ 8, 362, 500 $ 8, 599, 800 Licenses, Permits, and Franchise 45, 300 $ 86,900 $ 116, 200 $ 131, 800 $ 155, 700 $ 173, 700 Motor Vehicle License Fee 6, 000 $ 10, 500 $ 13, 600 $ 15, 100 $ 18, 500 $ 21, 600 Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties 26, 900 $ 51, 700 $ 69, 100 78, 400 $ 92, 600 $ 103, 300 Total Generel Fund Revenue 10, 130, 900 $ 20, 393,900 $ 28, 055, 600 $ 32, 359, 300 $ 37, 918, 300 $ 41, 535, 500 Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislative& Administrative 90, 000 $ 172, 700 $ 231, 000 $ 261, 900 $ 309, 400 $ 345,200 Finance 589, 900 $ 1, 131, 500 $ 1, 513, 900 $ 1, 715, 900 $ 2, 027, 700 $ 2, 261, 900 County Counsel 5, 300 $ 10, 200 $ 13, 600 $ 15, 500 $ 18, 300 $ 20, 400 Human Resources 31, 700 $ 60, 700 $ 81, 200 $ 92, 100 $ 108, 800 $ 121, 400 Elections 65,500 $ 125, 600 $ 168, 000 $ 190, 400 $ 225, 000 $ 251, 000 Property Management 271, 300 $ 520, 400 $ 696, 300 $ 789, 200 $ 932, 600 $ 1, 040, 300 Other General 77, 800 $ 149, 200 $ 199, 600 $ 226, 300 $ 267, 400 $ 298,300 Total General Government 1, 131, 500 $ 2, 170, 300 $ 2, 903, 600 $ 3, 297, 300 $ 3, 889, 200 $ 4, 338, 500 Public Protection
Judicial 887, 500 $ 1, 702, 300 $ 2, 277, 600 $ 2, 581, 500 $ 3, 050, 600 $ 3, 403, 000 Police Protection 418, 300 $ 802, 200 $ 1, 073, 400 $ 1, 216, 600 $ 1, 437, 600 $ 1, 603, 700 Detention and Corrections 960,300 $ 1, 841, 900 $ 2, 464, 500 $ 2, 793, 300 $ 3, 300, 900 $ 3, 682, 200 Protective Inspection 106, 100 $ 203, 400 $ 272, 200 $ 308, 500 $ 364, 600 $ 406, 700 OtherProtection 4, 700 9, 000 $ 12, 000 $ 13, 600 $ 16, 100 $ 17, 900 Total Public Protection 2, 376,900 $ 4, 558, 800 $ 6, 099, 700 $ 6, 913,500 $ 8, 169, 800 $ 9, 113, 500 Health and Sanitation
Health Services 316, 200 $ 553, 800 $ 717, 200 $ 792, 600 $ 974, 000 $ 1, 137, 300 Total Health and Sanitation 316, 200 $ 553, 800 $ 717, 200 $ 792, 600 $ 974, 000 $ 1, 137, 300 Public Assistance
Administration
Aid Programs 184, 600 $ 323, 300 $ 418, 700 $ 462, 700 $ 568, 600 $ 663, 900 General Relief 11, 200 $ 19, 700 $ 25, 500 $ 25, 100 $ 34, 600 $ 40, 400 OtherAssistance 74, 100 $ 129, 700 $ 168, 000 $ 185, 700 $ 228, 200 $ 266, 400 Veterans Services 3, 900 6, 800 8, 800 9, 700 $ 11, 900 $ 13, 900 Total Public Assistance 273, 800 $ 479,500 $ 621, 000 $ 686, 200 $ 843, 300 $ 984, 600 Education
AgriculWre Education 1Q000 $ 18, 000 $ 23, 000 $ 25, 000 $ 31, 000 $ 36, 000 Total Education 10, 000 $ 78, 000 $ 23, 000 $ 25, 000 $ 31, 000 $ 36, 000 Recreation
Recreation Services 55, 000 96, 000 $ 124, 000 $ 137, 000 $ 168, 000 $ 196, 000 Cultural Services 6, 000 $ 10, 000 $ 13, 000 15, 000 $ 18, 000 21, 000 Total Recreation 61, 000 $ 106, 000 $ 137,000 $ 152, 000 $ 186, 000 $ 217, 000 Total General Fund Expenditures 4, 169, 400 $ 7, 886, 400 $ 10, 501, 500 $ 11, 860, 600 $ 14, 093, 300 $ 15, 826, 900 EIFD Contribution[ 2]
Maximum Tax Rate 2, 466, 100) ($ 2, 005, 300) ($ 2, 718, 300) ($ 3, 116, 300) ($ 3, 659, 600) ($ 4, 037, 900) Variable Tax Rate 2, 466, 100) ($ 1, 303, 400) ($ 1, 291, 200) ($ 1, 480, 200) ($ 823, 400) ($ 908, 500) Net General Fund Surplus/( Deficit)
Prior to EIFD Allocation 5, 961, 500 $ 12, 507, 500 $ 17, 554, 100 $ 20, 498, 700 $ 23, 825, 000 $ 25, 708, 600 Net of EIFD Allocation• Maximum Tax $ 3, 495, 400 $ 10, 502, 200 $ 14, 835, 800 $ 17, 382, 400 $ 20, 165, 400 $ 27, 670, 700 Net of EIFD Allocation- Variable Tax 3, 495, 400 $ 11, 204, 100 $ 16, 262, 900 $ 19, 018, 500 $ 23, 001, 600 $ 24, 800, 100 det sum
Source: EPS.
i] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022- 23( Base Year) with the frst year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023- 24.
Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of lhis analysis includes estimated development occurring in July- December 2022( 50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase( 2023- 2025). Subsequenl phases include 5- year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10- year developmenl periods from 2041 through 2060. 2] EIFD Contribution represenls the portion of County property tax revenues diverted lo the EIFD. Refer to Table B3 for details.
PreparedbyEPS 1 0/? Q2 Z ISM MP fs4SAC11910001192015MassdakTrecfFinancirgPlanlMoEelslSenJoequin1f920155anJoaquin/ iscalm] 11. 1]. 11 I- 2
APPENDICES:
Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: General Fund Revenue Analysis
Appendix C: General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
APPENDIX A:
General Assumptions
Table A- 1 General Assumptions...................................................... I- 3 Table A- 2 Cumulative Land Use Projections...................................... I- 4 Table A- 3 Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and
Building Square Footage.................................................. I- 5 Table A- 4 Cumulative Estimated Population and Employees................ I- 6 Table A- 5 Land Use Assumptions.................................................... I- 7 E
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APPENDIX B:
General Fund Revenue Analysis
Table B- 1 Revenue- Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020- 21 Budget ................................... I- 8 Table B- 2 Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues ......................... I- 9 Table B- 3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues ( 2 pages) .......... I- 10 Table B- 4 Real Property Transfer Tax ............................................ I- 12 Table B- 5 Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue ...... I- 13 Table B- 5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method............................. I- 14 Table B- 5B Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from
Onsite Nonresidential.................................................... I- 15 n
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APPENDIX C:
General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Table C- 1 Expenditure- Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020- 21 Budget ................................. I- 16 Table C- 2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures................... I- 17 L~L
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APPENDIX D :
Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Table D- 1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area ( 2 pages) ............................................ I- 18 Table D- 2 Cumulative Assessed Valuation ...................................... I- ZO Table D- 3 Estimated Average Annual Household Income .................. I- 21 Table D- 4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet................. I- 2Z N
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