7/10/2024
SALES TAX FEASIBILITY SURVEY
C O ND U CTED FO R TH E
C ITY OF M ANH AT TAN B EACH
P RESENTED BY
T I MOT H Y M CL ARNEY P H. D.
3 3
o Determine if a general sales tax measure is feasible
o Identify how to create a measure consistent with
community priorities
o Gather information needed for communications &
outreach
PURPOSE OF STUDY
4 4
o How did we select voters to survey?
o Stratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely voters (Nov 2024) using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub - geographies
o Ensures balanced, representative sample of likely voters o How did we recruit participation?
o Personalized email, text, and telephone calls
o PINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent o How were voters able to share their opinions?
o Secure, PIN -protected website that scales to the device o Telephone (land line or mobile)
o What was the sample size?
o 409 completed interviews
o Overall margin of error of ± 4.8% @ 95% level of confidence
METHODOLOGY OF STUDY
5 5
QUALITY OF LIFE
Excellent
54.3 Good
36.7 Fair
8.0 Poor
0.7 Very poor
0.1 Not sure
0.2 6
6 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY
12.9 10.5
10.4 8.7
7.5 6.4
6.1 4.9
4.2 3.6
3.5 3.4
3.1 2.9
2.8 2.3
2.1 2.1
1.8 1.8
1.8 1.7
1.7 1.7
3.8 3.5
0 5 10 15
Address E-bike issues
Address parking issues
Not sure / Cannot think of anything
Improve public safety, more police presence
Preserve, support outdoor dining
Limit growth, development
No changes needed / Everything is fine
Address street sweeping issues
Improve bike lane safety
Enforce traffic laws
Address construction issues
Provide more affordable housing
Reduce traffic congestion
Underground utilities
Improve walkability, sidewalks
Add, improve parks, rec facilities
Provide more activities, events for all ages
Enforce City codes, ordinances
Improve government leadership, communication
Address homeless issues
Stronger judicial sentencing, more criminal accountability Reduce taxes, fees
Beautify City, cleanliness, landscaping
Improve Begg pool, add aquatic center
Improve public transit
Improve permitting process
% Respondents
7 7
17.5 3.1 2.2
48.047.1
32.333.1
16.6 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Manhattan Beach USD $200M bond Beach Cities HD $30M bond Ballot Propositions
% Respondents
Prefer not to
answer
Not sure
No
Yes
CROWDED BALLOT SIMULATION
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INITIAL BALLOT TEST
To provide funding for general city services in Manhattan Beach, such as:
o Keeping local streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, and parks safe, clean, and well -maintained
o Repairing/upgrading aging community facilities
o Fixing potholes
o And improving parking availability and traffic safety Shall City of Manhattan Beach’s ordinance establishing a one - half cent sales tax be adopted, providing 5 million dollars annually until ended by voters for general government use that can’t be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
9 9
INITIAL BALLOT TEST
Prefer not to
answer
0.4 Not sure
7.2 Definitely no
14.1 Probably no
14.3 Probably yes
38.3 Definitely yes
25.6 64%
28%
10 10
PROJECTS & SERVICES
58.1 57.0
60.0 47.4
51.1 22.3
26.9 25.7
29.8 30.4
19.5 31.7
21.9 39.9
28.9 23.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fix potholes and maintain city streets
Keep local streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, and
parks safe, clean, and well-maintained
Improve e-bike traffic enforcement and safety
Make improvements to roads, intersections, bike
lanes, signals to improve traffic safety, reduce
congestion
Expand sidewalks downtown to allow outdoor dining
and improved access
Repair, upgrade aging community facilities such as
Joslyn Community Center, Heights Community
Center, Cultural Arts Center
Renovate or replace the City’s municipal swimming
pool - Begg Pool
Create additional parking downtown and North
Manhattan Beach
% Respondents
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
11 11
POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
31.1 25.6
38.6 39.2
33.6 39.8
28.8 30.9
29.5 44.3
47.4 33.3
29.6 34.9
28.2 38.7
32.4 33.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
City maintains 100 mi of streets, 9 community facilities, and 122 acres of parks, playfields; measure provides funding we need to keep streets, parks, community facilities in good condition
Due to their age, some of MB’s community facilities have structural problems, earthquake safety issues, asbestos, outdated electrical, plumbing, roof leaks; measure will fix these problems
Every dime raised by measure will be reinvested back into the community to fund essential services, facilities here in MB; by law, money can’t be taken away by State or County
Currently, nearly all sales tax generated locally goes to State of CA or LA County; measure will ensure that a higher percentage of sales tax dollars stay here in MB
By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect quality of life, keep MB a special place to live
Sizeable percentage of money will come from people who visit, pass through MB, but don’t live here; measure will make sure visitors pay fair share for facilities, services they use while in city Measure includes a clear system of accountability incl citizen oversight, independent audits, public disclosure of how all funds are spent
Measure costs just 50 cents for every $100 purchased, groceries, medicine, many other essential items are excluded from the tax MB has over $200M in needed repairs to streets, sidewalks, community facilities; the longer we wait to fix these problems, the more expensive it will be
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
12 12
INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Prefer not to
answer
0.5Not sure
7.2 Definitely no
13.5 Probably no
11.7 Probably yes
39.1 Definitely yes
28.0 67%
25%
13 13
NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
43.0 32.6
32.0 37.5
33.7 28.5
35.5 31.9
26.4 29.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Residents already paying too many taxes, state and
county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; a lot of new
taxes on Nov ballot; enough is enough; we can’t afford
to keep raising taxes
There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent,
which means City can divert money to pet projects
without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars
MB is an expensive place to live, especially for young
families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable
This tax will last forever, it will never expire
Local residents, businesses have been hit hard by
inflation, high interest rates, high gas prices; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
14 14
FINAL BALLOT TEST
Definitely yes
26.4 Probably yes
31.3 Probably no
17.4 Definitely no
16.2 Not sure
7.9 Prefer not to
answer
0.7 58%34%
15 15
KEY CONCLUSIONS
o Does a local sales tax measure appear to be feasible for November 2024? Yes .
Positive Signs
o Voters have a high opinion of the quality of life in Manhattan Beach and value the services they receive from the City, but also see room for improvements
o Solid natural support for measure to fund city services (64%) o Popular projects and services
o Positive arguments resonate
o All ballot tests are above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments Challenges
o Receptiveness to potential opposition arguments ( -9%) o AB1416
o Electoral climate: Hyper -partisanship, statewide initiatives & overlapping local measures
16 16
o Snapshot in time, not a crystal ball
o Funding Priorities: Fixing potholes; keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, and parks safe, clean, well -maintained; improving e-bike enforcement/safety; improving traffic safety/reducing congestion; expanding sidewalks to allow outdoor dining / improved access.
o City Communications : Expand the conversation with the community to build awareness of ongoing needs and consensus on a proposal.
o Independent Campaign: Need to have solid independent
campaign to navigate through the election cycle, communicate key messages, turn out supporters, and weather uncertainties.
OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
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