7/15/2026
BUSINESS LICENSE TAX SURVEY
C O ND U CTED FO R TH E
C ITY OF M ANH AT TAN B EACH
P RESENTED BY
T I MOTH Y M CL ARNEY P H.D.
2 2
o How did we select voters to survey?
o Stratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely voters (November 2026) using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub -geographies
o Ensures balanced, representative sample of likely voters o How did we recruit participation?
o Personalized email, text, and telephone calls
o PINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent o How were voters able to share their opinions?
o Secure, PIN -protected website that scales to the device o Telephone (land line or mobile)
o June 16 th to June 24 th, 2026
o What was the sample size?
o 459 completed surveys
o Overall margin of error of ± 4.5% @ 95% level of confidence
METHODOLOGY OF STUDY
3 3
QUALITY OF LIFE
Excellent
63.7 Good
32.5 Fair
2.5 Poor
0.7 Very poor
0.7 Not sure
0.0 Prefer not to
answer
0.0 4
4 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY
18.2 13.7
13.3 11.5
6.7 6.5
4.9 4.9
4.3 3.8
3.6 3.5
3.4 3.2
3.2 3.1
2.9 2.2
2.1 2.1
1.9 1.8
1.7 1.7
1.2 1.2
1.2 1.1
1.8 4.2
3.5 0 5 10 15 20
Limit growth, development
Address parking issues
Enforce traffic, e-bike laws
Not sure / Cannot think of anything
Improve, maintain infrastructure
Improve walkability, sidewalks
Reduce traffic congestion
Improve quality of education
Enforce City codes, ordinances
Improve public safety, more police presence
Improve public transit
Preserve City history, small-town feeling
No changes needed / Everything is fine
Add, improve parks, rec facilities
Improve fiscal responsibility, budgeting
Beautify City, cleanliness, landscaping
Improve government leadership, communication
Attract variety of less expensive restaurants, shops
Provide more activities, events for all ages
Underground utilities
Provide more affordable housing
Preserve, support outdoor dining
Address dog-related issues
Improve permitting process
Increase, support small businesses
Improve City planning, development
Improve bike lane safety
Address construction issues
Reduce taxes, fees
Address homeless issues
Encourage, support diversity, address inequity
% Respondents
5 5
Shall the measure to simplify City of Manhattan Beach’s business license tax, lower taxes for 75% of local businesses, and ensure large businesses pay their fair share for general city services such as:
o Paving streets
o Parking management
o and 911 response
by applying a 0.26% gross -receipts rate equally to all businesses, lowering the flat rate, and raising the cap for large businesses, generating 800 thousand dollars annually in locally controlled funding for city services until ended by voters be adopted? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
INITIAL BALLOT TEST
6 6
INITIAL BALLOT TEST
Definitely yes
23.2 Probably yes
35.9 Probably no
10.5 Definitely no
9.9 Not sure
19.1 Prefer not to
answer
1.3 59%
20%
7 7
PROJECTS & SERVICES
53.3 58.3
58.8 50.8
54.3 47.3
39.6 32.6
24.4 30.0
34.8 27.9
21.5 29.0
25.0 27.5
30.9 36.8
41.2 25.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fix streets and potholes
Keep parks and playgrounds safe, clean and well-
maintained
Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies
Provide fire protection and paramedic services
Improve e-bike traffic enforcement and safety
Provide police and crime prevention services
Manage traffic congestion
Provide parks and recreation programs for all ages
Manage parking
Provide economic initiatives that support local businesses and create good-paying jobs
% Respondents
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
88%
86%
80%
80%
79%
75%
71%
69%
66%
56%
8 8
POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
44.6 40.1
29.5 42.9
24.2 30.2
30.4 40.5
26.2 11.8
30.4 32.3
42.6 28.6
46.2 37.0
35.2 24.6
38.7 36.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Under current rules, small business are taxed at a higher % of revenues, while larger businesses pay less; measure updates the business license tax so it applies equally to businesses Fast emergency response times for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will help ensure enough fire fighters, paramedics, police officers to respond quickly to 911 emergencies
City maintains 100 mi of streets, 122 acres of parks, playfields; measure provides funding we need to keep streets, infrastructure, parks in good condition
Every dime raised by measure will be reinvested back into community to fund essential services, facilities in Manhattan Beach; by law, money can’t be taken away by State, County, Federal gov
By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect quality of life, keep Manhattan Beach a special place to live Measure reduces taxes for 75% of business in Manhattan Beach, while ensuring that largest businesses pay their fair share for essential city services
Measure includes a clear system of accountability including independent audits, public disclosure of how all funds are spent Measure will NOT raise your taxes as a resident of Manhattan Beach; it applies only to businesses
City’s Business License Tax hasn't been updated in +50 yrs; measure updates ordinance and simplifies the tax so it applies equally to businesses
A portion of funds will be used to help promote Manhattan Beach as a place to visit, attract new businesses, job opportunities to City, all of which help local economy
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
75%
72%
72%
72%
70%
67%
66%
49%
65%
65%
9 9
INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Prefer not to
answer
2.0Not sure
11.9 Definitely no
8.6 Probably no
9.4 Probably yes
41.8 Definitely yes
26.3 68%18%
10 10
NEGATIVE MESSAGES
22.2 18.2
15.5 26.2
23.1 16.5
35.8 36.6
39.1 27.2
23.6 28.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with local tax dollars Local businesses hit hard by inflation, high interest rates, spiking gas prices; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to pass tax measures that could hurt our largest employers
Local retail businesses are struggling to make it with so much shopping happening online; measure should give them a
bigger tax break to help them survive and stay in business City employees are making too much money in salary,
pensions, benefits, that’s the problem; City needs to tighten its belt before asking for more money from the business community
This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date Don’t be fooled; most businesses won't see much of a tax break, while the largest business that provide the jobs our residents depend on will be hit the hardest
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
58%
55%
55%
53%
47%
45%
11 11
FINAL BALLOT TEST
Definitely yes
19.3 Probably yes
44.5 Probably no
10.2 Definitely no
10.9 Not sure
13.2 Prefer not to
answer
1.9 64%
21%
12 12
KEY CONCLUSIONS
Does a BLT Update Measure appear feasible for the November 2026 ballot? Yes , but it will require robust communication & outreach.
Positive Signs
o Voters view the quality of life in Manhattan Beach as exceptional , but also see room for service improvements
o Solid natural support for the BLT measure (59%)
o Popular projects and services
o Positive arguments resonate
o All ballot tests are well above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments Challenges & External Factors
o Receptiveness to potential opposition arguments
o Challenging external conditions: war/fuel prices, cost of living, tariffs/inflation, record low consumer sentiment, hyper -partisanship, competing measures, turnout?