Attachment 1 - Draft Report — Manteca City Council, April 18, 2022 (part 3 of 3)

Table B-3Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$) Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Assessed Value of New Development Table D-2
Assessed Value of New Development in Current City Limits a $148,619,250 $239,869,250 $445,534,250 $691,421,750 $859,544,250 $866,706,750 Assessed Value of New Development in Annexation Area b $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total Assessed Value c = a + b $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000%
Property Tax Revenue in Current City Limits d = a * 1.00% $1,486,193 $2,398,693 $4,455,343 $6,914,218 $8,595,443 $8,667,068 Property Tax Revenue in Annexation Areas e = b * 1.00% $406,250 $1,281,250 $2,218,750 $3,218,750 $5,071,250 $6,084,000 Total Property Tax Revenue f = d + e $1,892,443 $3,679,943 $6,674,093 $10,132,968 $13,666,693 $14,751,068 Estimated Property Tax Allocation
Property Tax Allocation in Current City Limits [1]
City of Stockton General Fund 16.7111% g = d * 16.71% $248,360 $400,849 $744,539 $1,155,445 $1,436,397 $1,448,367 Other Agencies/ERAF 83.2889% h = d * 83.29% $1,237,833 $1,997,843 $3,710,804 $5,758,772 $7,159,045 $7,218,701 Property Tax Allocation in Annexation Areas [2]
City of Stockton General Fund 7.2320% i = e * 7.23% $29,380 $92,659 $160,459 $232,779 $366,751 $439,992 Other Agencies/ERAF 92.7680% j = e * 92.77% $376,870 $1,188,591 $2,058,291 $2,985,971 $4,704,499 $5,644,008 Total City of Stockton General Fund Property Tax k = g + i $277,740 $493,509 $904,998 $1,388,224 $1,803,148 $1,888,359EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 1.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,777 $98,702 $181,000 $277,645 $360,630 $377,672 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $274,962 $394,807 $723,998 $1,110,579 $1,442,518 $1,510,687 EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 1.0% 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,777 $64,156 $85,975 $131,881 $81,142 $84,976 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $274,962 $429,352 $819,023 $1,256,343 $1,722,006 $1,803,383 Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Stockton
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Table B-3Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$) Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Stockton
Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [4] l $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 Total Assessed Value of Project m $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Total Assessed Value n = l + m $24,890,539,809 $25,069,289,809 $25,368,704,809 $25,714,592,309 $26,067,964,809 $26,176,402,309 Percent Change in AV o = m / l 0.77% 1.49% 2.70% 4.10% 5.53% 5.97% Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [5] $25,626,000 p = o * $25,626,000 $196,329 $381,770 $692,394 $1,051,230 $1,417,831 $1,530,328 prop tax
Source: City of Stockton; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[2] Refer to Table D-1 for details.[4] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes Citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll.[5] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the City of Stockton FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for details.[1] Reflects the average property tax allocation to the City's General Fund for all TRAs within the 200-year flood plain that are within the City's boundary. TRAs include: 003-159, 003-206, 003-238, 003,240, 003-289, 003-312, 003-455, 003-463, 003-464, 003-479, and 003-481.[3] EIFD allocation percentage represents the portion of property tax revenues to be diverted to the EIFD. Alocation percentages are negotiated allocation amounts based on discussions between the County, the Cities of Lathrop, Stockton, and Manteca, and Project Consultants. Reflects the Initial Base Rate for the period ending 2029 and the Maximum Tax Allocation Rate for 2030 and beyond.

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Table B-4Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonReal Property Transfer Tax (2020$) Assumption/
Description Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55Project Assessed Value Table D-2 Low Density Residential $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000High Density Residential $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000Nonresidential $94,786,250 $213,536,250 $448,951,250 $756,238,750 $1,109,611,250 $1,218,048,750Total Assessed Value $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Turnover Rate
Low Density Residential 14.30%High Density Residential 6.70%Nonresidential 5.00% Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Low Density Residential $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 High Density Residential $553 $2,764 $5,122 $6,545 $6,545 $6,545 Nonresidential $2,607 $5,872 $12,346 $20,797 $30,514 $33,496Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenue $9,409 $14,885 $23,718 $33,590 $43,308 $46,290 transfer
Source: City of Stockton; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.

Estimated Annual Property Transfer Tax Revenue (2020$)
City of
Stockton
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Table B-5Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$)Item Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents and Employees) a $5,167,169 $9,737,481 $15,147,354 $19,514,889 $22,517,496 $23,600,786 Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses b $60,572,394 $145,888,155 $240,817,294 $344,175,286 $530,532,359 $614,835,607 Annual Taxable Sales from New Development c = a + b $65,739,563 $155,625,636 $255,964,648 $363,690,175 $553,049,855 $638,436,394 Annual Sales Tax Revenue
Bradley Burns Local Sales Tax Revenue d = c * 1.0000% 1.0000% $657,396 $1,556,256 $2,559,646 $3,636,902 $5,530,499 $6,384,364 City of Stockton Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [1] e = d * 3.7058% 3.7058% $24,362 $57,672 $94,857 $134,778 $204,952 $236,595 sales
Source: City of Stockton; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.

Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales Tax Revenue
[1] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020-21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.

City of
Stockton
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Table B-5AMossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$)Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents Residential Development Table A-3
Low Density Residential 176 176 176 176 176 176High Density Residential 71 353 653 835 835 835Total Residential Development 246 528 829 1,010 1,010 1,010 Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1]
Low Density Residential $24,000 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818High Density Residential $15,000 $1,057,500 $5,287,500 $9,799,500 $12,520,800 $12,520,800 $12,520,800Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $5,275,318 $9,505,318 $14,017,318 $16,738,618 $16,738,618 $16,738,618 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Households [2] 80% $4,220,254 $7,604,254 $11,213,854 $13,390,894 $13,390,894 $13,390,894 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 50% $2,110,127 $3,802,127 $5,606,927 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 $6,695,447Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 50% $2,110,127 $3,802,127 $5,606,927 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 Annual Taxable Sales from New Employment
Taxable Sales from New Employment
Employees Table A-4 877 1,975 3,642 5,670 8,451 9,454Average Daily Taxable Sales per New Employee $10.00Work Days per Year 240Taxable Sales from New Employees [3] 50%Total Taxable Sales from New Employees $1,052,127 $2,370,252 $4,370,556 $6,804,439 $10,140,669 $11,344,325 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Employees [2] 90% $946,915 $2,133,227 $3,933,500 $6,123,995 $9,126,602 $10,209,892 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 70% $662,840 $1,493,259 $2,753,450 $4,286,796 $6,388,621 $7,146,925Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 30% $284,074 $639,968 $1,180,050 $1,837,198 $2,737,981 $3,062,968 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $5,167,169 $9,737,481 $15,147,354 $19,514,889 $22,517,496 $23,600,786 Taxable City Sales inside Project Area $2,772,967 $5,295,386 $8,360,377 $10,982,243 $13,084,068 $13,842,372Taxable City Sales outside Project Area $2,394,201 $4,442,095 $6,786,977 $8,532,646 $9,433,428 $9,758,415 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; City of Stockton; EPS.[2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place within the City of Stockton.[3] Taxable sales from employees discounted by 50 percent to account for employees who are also residents.[1] For details pertaining to household taxable expenditure assumptions, refer to Table D-3.

Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
Occupied Dwelling Units
Taxable Retail Expenditures
City of
Stockton
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Table B-5BMossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Nonresidential (2020$) Annual
Taxable Sales
per Sq. Ft. [1]
Item / Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Taxable Sales from Commercial Development
Taxable Sales Generating Occupied Commercial Development Square Feet Retail Commercial 290,590 695,278 1,123,090 1,574,028 2,421,328 2,814,596Total 290,590 695,278 1,123,090 1,574,028 2,421,328 2,814,596 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Development
Retail Commercial $240 $69,741,633 $166,866,633 $269,541,633 $377,766,633 $581,118,633 $675,503,043Total $69,741,633 $166,866,633 $269,541,633 $377,766,633 $581,118,633 $675,503,043 Less Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (within the Project) [2] $2,772,967 $5,295,386 $8,360,377 $10,982,243 $13,084,068 $13,842,372 Annual Sales Less Market Support $66,968,666 $161,571,247 $261,181,256 $366,784,390 $568,034,565 $661,660,671 Shift from
Existing Retail
Less Shift of Sales from Existing Regional and Community Retail to the Project [3] 10% $6,696,867 $16,157,125 $26,118,126 $36,678,439 $56,803,456 $66,166,067 Total Taxable Sales from Retail Commercial Uses $60,271,799 $145,414,122 $235,063,130 $330,105,951 $511,231,108 $595,494,604Occupied Nonretail Commercial Uses Office Commercial $60,119 $94,806 $129,494 $164,181 $233,556 $241,507Industrial - - $1,021,339 $2,649,686 $3,626,694 $3,626,694Total $60,119 $94,806 $1,150,833 $2,813,867 $3,860,250 $3,868,201 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Uses
Office Commercial $5 $300,595 $474,032 $647,470 $820,907 $1,167,782 $1,207,534Industrial $5 - - $5,106,694 $13,248,428 $18,133,469 $18,133,469Total $300,595 $474,032 $5,754,164 $14,069,336 $19,301,251 $19,341,003 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Development $300,595 $474,032 $5,754,164 $14,069,336 $19,301,251 $19,341,003 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses $60,572,394 $145,888,155 $240,817,294 $344,175,286 $530,532,359 $614,835,607 sales b
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics; Urban Land Institute; EPS.[2] Estimated in Table B-5A.

Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
[3] Represents a discount factor to account for taxable sales transactions that may shift from the City's existing retail centers to those included in the Project. Applied only to the Retail uses within the Project. [1] See Table D-4 for the taxable retail sales calculation. All retail is assumed to be community serving retail. Sales per square foot for the Retail space is based on average total sales per square foot figure derived from BizMiner and eMarketer data (escalated to 2020$) and converts total sales to taxable sales per square foot to account for a small portion of non-taxable goods sold.

City of
Stockton
Occupied Building Square FeetOccupied Building Square Feet Total Taxable SalesTotal Taxable Sales
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APPENDIX C:

General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Table C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................ H-16 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures .................. H-17 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
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Table C-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonExpenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Stockton FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net City or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment FY 2020-21 Item Procedure Expenditures [1] Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cost Factor [2] Avg. Cost General Fund
General Government Administration Persons Served $16,978,158 ($187,500) $16,790,658 380,022 $44.18 100% $44.18Police Services Persons Served $136,160,466 ($7,648,853) $128,511,613 380,022 $338.17 100% $338.17 Fire Services Persons Served $48,088,874 ($4,678,487) $43,410,387 380,022 $114.23 100% $114.23 Fire Station Expenditures [3] Case Study N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Public Works Persons Served $16,015,900 ($37,355) $15,978,545 380,022 $42.05 100% $42.05Economic Development Persons Served $1,452,575 ($140,304) $1,312,271 380,022 $3.45 100% $3.45Office of Violence Prevention Persons Served $1,967,245 - $1,967,245 380,022 $5.18 100% $5.18Library and Recreation (prior to 2034) [4] Per Capita $7,550,000 - $7,550,000 318,522 $23.70 100% $23.70 Library and Recreation (2034 and beyond) [4] Per Capita $24,697,929 - $24,697,929 318,522 $77.54 100% $77.54 Entertainment Venues Per Capita $4,785,000 - $4,785,000 318,522 $15.02 100% $15.02 Downtown Marina Per Capita $297,000 - $297,000 318,522 $0.93 100% $0.93 Golf Courses Per Capita $550,000 - $550,000 318,522 $1.73 100% $1.73 Grant Match [5] $100,000 - $100,000 N/A - 100% - Development Services Persons Served $800,000 - $800,000 380,022 $2.11 100% $2.11 Low and Moderate Income Housing [5] - - - N/A - 100% -
Radio and Retirement ISF [5] $5,250,000 - $5,250,000 N/A - 100% - Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $264,693,147 ($12,692,499) $252,000,648 Debt Service [5] $1,837,175 - $1,837,175 N/A - 100% -
Contingency [5] $2,000,000 - $2,000,000 N/A - 100% -
Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $268,530,322 ($12,692,499) $255,837,823 Available Balance [6] ($45,079,996) ($45,079,996)
exp
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; City of Stockton; EPS.[6] Available Balance reflects surplus annual General Fund Revenues beyond those required to fund all annual General Fund Expenditures. [5] This expenditure category is not expected to be affected by the project and not evaluated as part of this analysis.

City of
Stockton
[1] Represents the approved FY 2020-21 budgeted expenditures.[2] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department expenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment at this time.[3] Based on conversations with the Fire Chief it is anticipated that an additional fire station would be required to serve the anticipated development south of the City. The annual operating costs related to the operation of the additional fire station have been included as an additional annual expenditure in all phases of development. [4] Under current budget conditions, Library and Recreation funding includes support from Sales Tax Measure M. This sales tax measure is expected to expire in 2034 and is not anticipated to be renewed. As a result all Library and Recreation expenditures currently funded through Measure M are expected to be absorbed by the City General Fund beginning in 2034.

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Table C-2Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)Expenditure Category 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)General Fund General Government Administration $52,781 $108,196 $178,247 $243,094 $304,513 $326,672Police Services $403,972 $828,110 $1,364,263 $1,860,582 $2,330,670 $2,500,269Fire Services $136,459 $279,730 $460,839 $628,493 $787,285 $844,575Fire Station Expenditures [2] $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000Public Works $50,228 $102,963 $169,626 $231,336 $289,785 $310,872Economic Development $4,125 $8,456 $13,931 $18,999 $23,799 $25,531Office of Violence Prevention $6,184 $12,677 $20,884 $28,482 $35,678 $38,274Library and Recreation (prior to 2034) [3] $17,924 $34,635 - - - - Library and Recreation (2034 and beyond) [3] - - $171,610 $206,778 $206,778 $206,778Entertainment Venues $11,360 $21,951 $33,248 $40,061 $40,061 $40,061Downtown Marina $705 $1,362 $2,064 $2,487 $2,487 $2,487Golf Courses $1,306 $4,228 $6,966 $9,500 $11,901 $12,767Development Services $2,515 $5,155 $8,493 $11,582 $14,509 $15,564Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $2,987,559 $3,707,464 $4,730,170 $5,581,394 $6,347,464 $6,623,849 exp est
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.[1] Annual expenditure estimated on a per persons served or per capita basis. Refer to Table C-1 for estimating procedure and Table A-5 for population and employment estimates.

Estimated Annual Expenditure [1]
City of
Stockton
[2] Based on conversations with the Fire Chief it is anticipated that an additional fire station would be required to serve the anticipated development south of the City. This analysis assumes the required station will be developed and staffed within the first phase of development. Based on information provided by the Fire Chief, current as of July 2020, the additional station would require nine additional firefighters to staff an engine and company for a total annual expenditure increase of $2,300,000. The fire station expenditures have been included in this analysis in addition to the per persons served multiplier expenditures. [3] Under current budget conditions, Library and Recreation funding includes support from Sales Tax Measure M. This sales tax measure is expected to expire in 2034 and is not anticipated to be renewed. As a result, all Library and Recreation expenditures currently funded through Measure M are expected to be absorbed by the City General Fund beginning in 2034.

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APPENDIX D:

Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Table D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area ......................................................... H-18 Table D-2 Cumulative Assessed Valuation ..................................... H-19 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annual Household Income ................. H-20 Table D-4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet ................ H-21 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
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Table D-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonPreliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entity TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 Total Formula a b e f g = e + f h e = d * $278,126 f = e / $769,158 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 22.29650% 22.30610% $172,291 ($796) $171,495 80% $222,501 28.92784% 10527 Road District 1 4.26040% 4.26030% $32,921 ($152) $32,769 - - 0.00000% 14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire 9.60300% 9.60300% $74,205 ($343) $73,862 - - 0.00000% 40400 City of Stockton 0.00000% 0.00000% - - - 20% $55,625 7.23196% Subtotal 36.15990% 36.16940% $279,417 ($1,291) $278,126 100% $278,126 36.15980% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.80010% 1.80010% $13,910 ($64) $13,846 - $13,846 1.80013%12601 Manteca Unified Schools 29.58380% 29.58380% $228,602 ($1,056) $227,546 - $227,546 29.58378%13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 4.00510% 4.00510% $30,949 ($143) $30,806 - $30,806 4.00514% 13201 County Office Of Education 1.43850% 1.42890% $11,116 ($51) $11,065 - $11,065 1.43855%16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.17560% 0.17570% $1,357 ($6) $1,351 - $1,351 0.17564%21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.78840% 0.78840% $6,092 ($28) $6,064 - $6,064 0.78838%41100 ERAF - Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund 26.04860% 26.04860% $201,285 ($930) $200,355 - $200,355 26.04859% Subtotal 63.84010% 63.83060% $493,311 ($2,279) $491,032 - $491,032 63.84020% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% $772,729 ($3,570) $769,158 100% $769,158 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller.

City of
Stockton
Existing Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1]
[2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreement between San Joaquin County and the City of Stockton dated August 2015 related to annexed areas to the City.

Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
Property Tax
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Base
Revenue
Post-ERAF
Distribution
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Table D-2Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonCumulative Assessed Valuation (2020$)Item 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Development Projections in Current City Limits Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $425,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000High Density Residential $200,000 $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000Subtotal Residential $94,458,000 $154,458,000 $218,458,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $37,912,875 $59,787,875 $81,662,875 $103,537,875 $147,287,875 $152,301,625Office Commercial $250 $16,248,375 $25,623,375 $34,998,375 $44,373,375 $63,123,375 $65,272,125Industrial $100 - - $110,415,000 $286,452,500 $392,075,000 $392,075,000Subtotal Nonresidential $54,161,250 $85,411,250 $227,076,250 $434,363,750 $602,486,250 $609,648,750 Total All Land Uses $148,619,250 $239,869,250 $445,534,250 $691,421,750 $859,544,250 $866,706,750 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000Subtotal Nonresidential $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total All Land Uses $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total City of Stockton Development Projections
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $425,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000High Density Residential $200,000 $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000Subtotal Residential $94,458,000 $154,458,000 $218,458,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $78,537,875 $187,912,875 $303,537,875 $425,412,875 $654,412,875 $760,701,625Office Commercial $250 $16,248,375 $25,623,375 $34,998,375 $44,373,375 $63,123,375 $65,272,125Industrial $100 - - $110,415,000 $286,452,500 $392,075,000 $392,075,000Subtotal Nonresidential $94,786,250 $213,536,250 $448,951,250 $756,238,750 $1,109,611,250 $1,218,048,750 Total All Land Uses $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
AV
Source: Costar; CBRE; The Gregory Group; EPS.[1] Refer to Table A-5 for details.

Total Assessed Value (2020$)
Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
City of
Stockton
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Table D-3Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of StocktonEstimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$) Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percent of per Household
Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Low Density Residential $425,000 $32,202 $92,000 26% $24,000 Renter-Occupied Residential
High Density Residential $200,000 $18,000 $51,000 30% $15,000 income
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS.[1] See Table A-5 for detail on estimated values for residential units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowner's association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance. High density residential based on an average monthly rent assumption of $1,500 based on data on similar multifamily residential obtained from Costar, September 2019 with an average unit size of 1,000 square feet. [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.

Year CPI Adjustment to 2020$
2008 219.65 25.9%2016 247.71 11.7%2018 263.26 5.1%2019 270.35 2.3%2020 276.59 0.0% [2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008.[3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes taxable sales per square foot for dealerships.[4][5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008, escalated to 2020$.[6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services.[7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS.

Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSales, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports, escalated to 2020$.

Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2020$) [1]
Total Retail Sales by Shopping Center Type
Neighborhood Community Regional
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ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
ATTACHMENT I:

San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
List of Tables
Table 1 Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits .............................................................. I-1 Table 2 Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures ................................................ I-2 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
DRAFT
Table 1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountySummary of Annual Surplus/Deficits (2020$)Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Annual Fiscal Impact Summary Prior to EIFD Allocation
Annual General Fund Revenues $10,131,000 $20,394,000 $28,056,000 $32,359,000 $37,918,000 $41,536,000Annual General Fund Expenditures $4,169,000 $7,886,000 $10,502,000 $11,861,000 $14,093,000 $15,827,000Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $5,962,000 $12,508,000 $17,554,000 $20,498,000 $23,825,000 $25,709,000 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,466,100) ($2,005,300) ($2,718,300) ($3,116,300) ($3,659,600) ($4,037,900)Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $3,495,900 $10,502,700 $14,835,700 $17,381,700 $20,165,400 $21,671,100 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,466,100) ($1,303,400) ($1,291,200) ($1,480,200) ($823,400) ($908,500)Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $3,495,900 $11,204,600 $16,262,800 $19,017,800 $23,001,600 $24,800,500 sum
Source: EPS.[2] EIFD Allocation represents the portion of County property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for details.

Estimated Annual Revenues/Expenditures (Rounded)
San Joaquin
County
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.

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Table 2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures (2020$)
Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Annual General Fund Revenues (Prior to EIFD Contribution) Property Tax (without EIFD Contribution) $5,213,700 $10,026,300 $13,591,500 $15,581,500 $18,298,200 $20,189,600 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $3,002,700 $5,774,400 $7,827,600 $8,973,700 $10,538,300 $11,627,600 Property Transfer Tax $132,200 $243,400 $326,000 $368,800 $452,500 $519,900 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax $1,704,100 $4,200,700 $6,111,600 $7,210,000 $8,362,500 $8,899,800 Licenses, Permits, and Franchise $45,300 $86,900 $116,200 $131,800 $155,700 $173,700 Motor Vehicle License Fee $6,000 $10,500 $13,600 $15,100 $18,500 $21,600 Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties $26,900 $51,700 $69,100 $78,400 $92,600 $103,300 Total General Fund Revenue $10,130,900 $20,393,900 $28,055,600 $32,359,300 $37,918,300 $41,535,500 Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislative & Administrative $90,000 $172,700 $231,000 $261,900 $309,400 $345,200 Finance $589,900 $1,131,500 $1,513,900 $1,715,900 $2,027,700 $2,261,900 County Counsel $5,300 $10,200 $13,600 $15,500 $18,300 $20,400 Human Resources $31,700 $60,700 $81,200 $92,100 $108,800 $121,400 Elections $65,500 $125,600 $168,000 $190,400 $225,000 $251,000 Property Management $271,300 $520,400 $696,300 $789,200 $932,600 $1,040,300 Other General $77,800 $149,200 $199,600 $226,300 $267,400 $298,300 Total General Government $1,131,500 $2,170,300 $2,903,600 $3,291,300 $3,889,200 $4,338,500 Public Protection
Judicial $887,500 $1,702,300 $2,277,600 $2,581,500 $3,050,600 $3,403,000 Police Protection $418,300 $802,200 $1,073,400 $1,216,600 $1,437,600 $1,603,700 Detention and Corrections $960,300 $1,841,900 $2,464,500 $2,793,300 $3,300,900 $3,682,200 Protective Inspection $106,100 $203,400 $272,200 $308,500 $364,600 $406,700 Other Protection $4,700 $9,000 $12,000 $13,600 $16,100 $17,900 Total Public Protection $2,376,900 $4,558,800 $6,099,700 $6,913,500 $8,169,800 $9,113,500 Health and Sanitation
Health Services $316,200 $553,800 $717,200 $792,600 $974,000 $1,137,300 Total Health and Sanitation $316,200 $553,800 $717,200 $792,600 $974,000 $1,137,300 Public Assistance
Administration - - - - - -
Aid Programs $184,600 $323,300 $418,700 $462,700 $568,600 $663,900 General Relief $11,200 $19,700 $25,500 $28,100 $34,600 $40,400 Other Assistance $74,100 $129,700 $168,000 $185,700 $228,200 $266,400 Veterans Services $3,900 $6,800 $8,800 $9,700 $11,900 $13,900 Total Public Assistance $273,800 $479,500 $621,000 $686,200 $843,300 $984,600 Education
Agriculture Education $10,000 $18,000 $23,000 $25,000 $31,000 $36,000 Total Education $10,000 $18,000 $23,000 $25,000 $31,000 $36,000 Recreation
Recreation Services $55,000 $96,000 $124,000 $137,000 $168,000 $196,000 Cultural Services $6,000 $10,000 $13,000 $15,000 $18,000 $21,000 Total Recreation $61,000 $106,000 $137,000 $152,000 $186,000 $217,000 Total General Fund Expenditures $4,169,400 $7,886,400 $10,501,500 $11,860,600 $14,093,300 $15,826,900 EIFD Contribution [2]
Maximum Tax Rate ($2,466,100) ($2,005,300) ($2,718,300) ($3,116,300) ($3,659,600) ($4,037,900) Variable Tax Rate ($2,466,100) ($1,303,400) ($1,291,200) ($1,480,200) ($823,400) ($908,500) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit)
Prior to EIFD Allocation $5,961,500 $12,507,500 $17,554,100 $20,498,700 $23,825,000 $25,708,600 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax $3,495,400 $10,502,200 $14,835,800 $17,382,400 $20,165,400 $21,670,700 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax $3,495,400 $11,204,100 $16,262,900 $19,018,500 $23,001,600 $24,800,100 det sum
Source: EPS.
[2] EIFD Contribution represents the portion of County property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for details.

Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.

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APPENDICES:

Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: General Fund Revenue Analysis
Appendix C: General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
APPENDIX A:

General Assumptions
Table A-1 General Assumptions ...................................................... I-3 Table A-2 Cumulative Land Use Projections ...................................... I-4 Table A-3 Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and
Building Square Footage .................................................. I-5 Table A-4 Cumulative Estimated Population and Employees ................ I-6 Table A-5 Land Use Assumptions .................................................... I-7 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
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Table A-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyGeneral AssumptionsItem AssumptionGeneral Assumptions Fiscal Year of Budget Analysis [1] FY 2020-21Base Fiscal Year of Potential EIFD [2] FY 2022-23 General Demographic Characteristics
San Joaquin County
Population [3] 773,632Employees [4] 282,200San Joaquin County Persons Served [5] 914,732 gen assumps
Source: California Department of Finance; EDD; U.S. Census LED; EPS.[5] Persons served is defined as total population plus half of total employees. Used to estimate specific revenues and expenditures that are assumed to be impacted by growth in resident and employment populations and to avoid double counting of employees who reside in the City.

San Joaquin
County
[1] Reflects the County of San Joaquin Fiscal Year 2020-21 adopted budget. Revenues and expenditures are in 2020 dollars. This analysis does not reflect changes in values resulting from inflation or appreciation.[3] Based on population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) data for January 1, 2020.[4] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 251,730 jobs in San Joaquin County, CA in 2018. California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2018 for the Stockton-Lodi MSA. EPS adjusted the 2018 employment figure to arrive at a 2020 employment estimate using this growth rate and further increased the total by 10% to account for self-employed workers. Estimate is rounded to the nearest hundred employees.[2] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.

Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.

Development Projections in Current City Limits [2]
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 1,946 - 3,169 - 4,236 - 4,793 - 6,483 - 8,004 - High Density Residential 956 - 1,716 - 2,094 - 2,287 - 2,287 - 2,287 - Subtotal Residential 2,902 - 4,885 - 6,330 - 7,080 - 8,770 - 10,291 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 1,691,971 - 4,185,528 - 5,750,736 - 6,504,146 - 7,139,848 - 7,356,351 Office Commercial [5] - 832,363 - 2,023,383 - 2,598,924 - 2,937,792 - 3,153,260 - 3,210,967 Industrial - 6,853,240 - 11,328,609 - 14,357,821 - 16,465,698 - 17,521,923 - 17,521,923 Subtotal Nonresidential - 9,377,573 - 17,537,520 - 22,707,480 - 25,907,636 - 27,815,031 - 28,089,241 Total All Land Uses 2,902 9,377,573 4,885 17,537,520 6,330 22,707,480 7,080 25,907,636 8,770 27,815,031 10,291 28,089,241 Development Projections in Annexation Areas [2]
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 276 - 691 - 860 - 860 - 860 - 860 - Subtotal Residential 276 - 691 - 860 - 860 - 860 - 860 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 189,953 - 677,218 - 1,391,530 - 1,944,530 - 2,685,530 - 3,090,630 Industrial - - - - - 1,131,402 - 1,885,670 - 1,885,670 - 1,885,670 Subtotal Nonresidential - 189,953 - 677,218 - 2,522,932 - 3,830,200 - 4,571,200 - 4,976,300 Total All Land Uses 276 189,953 691 677,218 860 2,522,932 860 3,830,200 860 4,571,200 860 4,976,300 Total San Joaquin County Development Projections
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 2,221 - 3,859 - 5,095 - 5,652 - 7,342 - 8,863 - High Density Residential 956 - 1,716 - 2,094 - 2,287 - 2,287 - 2,287 - Subtotal Residential 3,177 - 5,575 - 7,189 - 7,939 - 9,629 - 11,150 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 1,881,924 - 4,862,746 - 7,142,266 - 8,448,676 - 9,825,378 - 10,446,981 Office Commercial [5] - 832,363 - 2,023,383 - 2,598,924 - 2,937,792 - 3,153,260 - 3,210,967 Industrial - 6,853,240 - 11,328,609 - 15,489,223 - 18,351,368 - 19,407,593 - 19,407,593 Subtotal Nonresidential - 9,567,526 - 18,214,738 - 25,230,412 - 29,737,836 - 32,386,231 - 33,065,541 Total All Land Uses 3,177 9,567,526 5,575 18,214,738 7,189 25,230,412 7,939 29,737,836 9,629 32,386,231 11,150 33,065,541

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE lu
Source: San Joaquin County; City of Manteca; City of Lathrop; City of Stockton; LWA; EPS.[4] For purposes of this analysis, residential units were categorized as owner- or renter-occupied based on assumed density. [5] Nonresidential commercial land use projections provided by the applicable City reflect a general commercial land use designation. This analysis assumes general commercial will comprise both retail and office land uses. EPS determined a preliminary estimated allocation of retail and office space based on the existing proportion of retail and office space in each City, the City's current General Plan, and the proposed land use plans of anticipated development projects within the EIFD boundary.[3] Includes development projections in the future Stockton annexation area, the future Manteca Annexation area, and the Oakwood Shores and South Lathrop developments. [2] Development projections include development projections in incorporated cities as were provided by LWA based on land use data provided by the Cities of Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton as of February, 2020.

San Joaquin
County
Cumulative Dwelling Units/Square Footage
2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 1,740,779 4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457Office Commercial 7.5% 769,935 1,871,629 2,404,004 2,717,458 2,916,766 2,970,145Industrial 7.5% 6,339,247 10,478,964 14,327,532 16,975,016 17,952,024 17,952,024Subtotal Nonresidential 8,849,962 16,848,633 23,338,131 27,507,498 29,957,264 30,585,625

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
occupied
Source: California Department of Finance; San Joaquin County; Costar; LWA; EPS.[1] For details pertaining to vacancy rate assumptions, refer to Table A-5.

Occupied Dwelling Units/Building Square Feet
San Joaquin
County
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
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Table A-4Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyCumulative Estimated Population and Employees Assumption
Land Use [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Project Residents Residential Land Uses PPH
Low Density Residential 3.30 6,891 11,972 15,806 17,534 22,776 27,494 High Density Residential 2.50 2,247 4,033 4,921 5,374 5,374 5,374 Subtotal Residential 9,138 16,005 20,727 22,908 28,150 32,868 Total Resident Population 9,138 16,005 20,727 22,908 28,150 32,868Project Employees Nonresidential Land Uses Sq. Ft. per Emp.

Retail Commercial 400 4,352 11,245 16,516 19,538 22,721 24,159 Office Commercial 400 1,925 4,679 6,010 6,794 7,292 7,425 Industrial 2,000 3,170 5,239 7,164 8,488 8,976 8,976
Subtotal Nonresidential 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560 Total Employee Population 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560Project Persons Served 13,862 26,587 35,572 40,318 47,645 53,148 pop
Source: California Department of Finance; EPS. [1] For persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, refer to Table A-5.

Estimated Population/Employees
San Joaquin
County
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Table A-5Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyLand Use Assumptions Persons per
Estimated Property Household/
Assessed Turnover Vacancy Sq. Ft. per
Land Use Value [1] Rate [2] Rate [3] Employee [4]
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [5] $510,427 14.3% 6.0% 3.30
High Density Residential $200,000 6.7% 6.0% 2.50
Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400Office Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400 Industrial $100 5.0% 7.5% 2,000
lu assum
Source: The Gregory Group; Costar; Colliers, International; CBRE; US Census; EPS.[5] Estimated Countywide assessed value per unit reflects the weighted average, at buildout, of the assessed values per unit assumptions for Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton. The assessed value per unit for low density residential is assumed to be $425,000 in the City of Stockton, $500,000 in the City of Manteca, and $525,000 in the City of Lathrop. The assumption varies in each phase based on varying amounts of low density residential development in each jurisdiction by phase.

San Joaquin
County
[1] Residential assessed values are based on sales data of comparable products as obtained through The Gregory Group for the last 4 quarters (Q1 2020 through Q4 2020). Nonresidential values per square foot based on comparable transaction data for transactions made in San Joaquin County since 2005 obtained from Costar, data accessed on March 25, 2021. [2] Owner-occupied residential assumed to turn over once every 7 years and renter-occupied residential is assumed to turn over once every 15 years. Nonresidential uses are assumed to turn over once every 20 years.[3] Residential vacancy rates obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates, for San Joaquin County. Commercial and industrial vacancy rates based on Q3 2019 Costar and Q3 2019 Colliers International market reports for the Stockton/Modesto area.[4] Persons per household figures obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates. Square feet per employee values are based on empirical research for proposed land uses.

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APPENDIX B:

General Fund Revenue Analysis
Table B-1 Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................... I-8 Table B-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues ......................... I-9 Table B-3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2 pages) .......... I-10 Table B-4 Real Property Transfer Tax ............................................ I-12 Table B-5 Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue ...... I-13 Table B-5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method ............................. I-14 Table B-5B Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from
Onsite Nonresidential .................................................... I-15 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
DRAFT
Table B-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyRevenue-Estimating Procedures Based on San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Budgeted Budgeted
Estimating Case Study General Fund Offsetting Net General Service Revenue Item Procedure Reference Revenues [1] Revenue Fund Revenues Population [2] Multiplier General Fund Revenues
Property Tax Case Study Table B-3 $168,865,867 ($190,792) $168,675,075 N/A - Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Case Study Table B-3 $95,777,111 - $95,777,111 N/A - Property Transfer Tax Case Study Table B-4 $5,016,651 - $5,016,651 N/A - Sales and Use Tax [3] - $22,156,588 - $22,156,588 N/A - Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $67,134,327 - $67,134,327 N/A - Transient Occupancy Tax [4] - $510,000 ($510,000) $0 N/A - Licenses, Permits, and Franchise Persons Served - $8,598,700 ($5,609,526) $2,989,174 914,732 $3.27Intergovernmental Revenue [4] - $495,324,122 ($556,335,941) ($61,011,819) N/A - Motor Vehicle License Fee Per Capita - $509,137 - $509,137 773,632 $0.66Current Service Charges [4] - $45,015,682 ($44,355,867) $659,815 N/A - Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties Persons Served - $5,344,414 ($3,566,648) $1,777,766 914,732 $1.94Use of Money and Property [4] - $6,471,039 ($946,039) $5,525,000 N/A - Other Taxes - Racehorse [4] - $2,000 - $2,000 N/A - Miscellaneous Revenues [4] - $2,319,268 ($2,308,468) $10,800 N/A - Other [4] - $57,178,862 ($68,647,404) ($11,468,542) N/A - Subtotal General Fund Revenue $980,223,768 ($682,470,685) $297,753,083 Contingency Fund [4] - $4,974,834 ($4,974,834) $0 N/A - Total General Fund Revenue $985,198,602 ($687,445,519) $297,753,083 rev pro
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.[1] Includes midyear budget adjustments as presented to the County Board of Supervisors on February 23, 2021.[2] Refer to Table A-1.[3] It is assumed that all sales tax revenue generated by the project will be contained within City boundaries; therefore, no sales and use tax is calculated in this analysis.[4] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by anticipated development and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis.

Estimated Annual Revenue (Rounded)
San Joaquin
County
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Table B-3Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$) Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Assessed Value of New Development Table D-2
Assessed Value of New Development in Current City Limits a $2,483,977,808 $4,618,659,097 $6,067,767,380 $6,872,949,747 $8,078,614,747 $8,945,692,247 Assessed Value of New Development in Annexation Area b $185,363,250 $514,679,500 $890,897,700 $1,104,574,500 $1,289,824,500 $1,391,099,500 Total Assessed Value c = a + b $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000%
Property Tax Revenue in Current City Limits d = a * 1.00% $24,839,778 $46,186,591 $60,677,674 $68,729,497 $80,786,147 $89,456,922 Property Tax Revenue in Annexation Areas e = b * 1.00% $1,853,633 $5,146,795 $8,908,977 $11,045,745 $12,898,245 $13,910,995 Total Property Tax Revenue f = d + e $26,693,411 $51,333,386 $69,586,651 $79,775,242 $93,684,392 $103,367,917 Estimated Property Tax Allocation
Estimated Property Tax Allocation in Current City Limits [1] San Joaquin County General Fund 19.5318% g = d * 19.53% $4,851,644 $9,021,051 $11,851,414 $13,424,076 $15,778,951 $17,472,506 Other Agencies/ERAF 80.4682% h = d * 80.47% $19,988,134 $37,165,540 $48,826,260 $55,305,421 $65,007,196 $71,984,417 Property Tax Allocation in Annexation Areas [2]
San Joaquin County General Fund 27.3226% i = e * 27.32% $362,047 $1,005,259 $1,740,079 $2,157,428 $2,519,253 $2,717,061 Other Agencies/ERAF 72.6774% j = e * 72.68% $1,491,586 $4,141,536 $7,168,898 $8,888,317 $10,378,992 $11,193,934 Subtotal San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax k = g + i $5,213,691 $10,026,311 $13,591,493 $15,581,504 $18,298,205 $20,189,567EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 47.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,466,076 $2,005,262 $2,718,299 $3,116,301 $3,659,641 $4,037,913 Net San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $2,747,615 $8,021,048 $10,873,195 $12,465,203 $14,638,564 $16,151,654EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 47.3% 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,466,076 $1,303,420 $1,291,192 $1,480,243 $823,419 $908,531 Net San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $2,747,615 $8,722,890 $12,300,301 $14,101,261 $17,474,786 $19,281,037 Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
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Table B-3Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$) Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Countywide Assessed Value [4] o $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 Total Assessed Value of Project p $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747 Total Assessed Value q = o + p $87,814,215,480 $90,278,213,019 $92,103,539,502 $93,122,398,669 $94,513,313,669 $95,481,666,169 Percent Change in AV r = p / o 3.14% 6.03% 8.17% 9.37% 11.00% 12.14% Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [5] $95,777,111 s = r * $95,777,111 $3,002,668 $5,774,350 $7,827,610 $8,973,696 $10,538,298 $11,627,571 prop tax
Source: San Joaquin County; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[2] Refer to Table D-1 for details.[4] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes countywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll.[5] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for details.[1] Reflects the average property tax allocation to the County General Fund for all TRAs within the 200-year flood plain that are within the boundaries of the Cities of Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton. TRAs include: 002-000, 002-060, 002-063, 002-064, 002-087, 002-088, 003-159, 003-206, 003-238, 003-240, 003-289, 003-312, 003463, 003-464, 007-000, 007-002, 007-007, 007-008, 007-010, 007-012, 007-013, 007-014, 007-022, 007-029, 007-032, 007-041, 007-043, 007-046, 007-047, 007-048, 007-049, 007-071, and 007-074.[3] EIFD allocation percentage represents the portion of property tax revenues to be diverted to the EIFD. Alocation percentages are negotiated allocation amounts based on discussions between the County, the Cities of Lathrop, Stockton, and Manteca, and Project Consultants. Reflects the Initial Base Rate for the period ending 2029 and the Maximum Tax Allocation Rate for 2030 and beyond.

Estimated Annual Property Transfer Tax Revenue (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
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Table B-5Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$)Item Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents and Employees) a Table B-5A $59,945,710 $109,328,494 $144,085,582 $161,240,158 $195,743,518 $224,702,686 Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses b Table B-5B $379,767,600 $974,602,038 $1,432,939,055 $1,699,202,239 $1,962,096,751 $2,071,778,709Annual Taxable Sales from Total Net New Development c = a + b $439,713,310 $1,083,930,532 $1,577,024,637 $1,860,442,397 $2,157,840,269 $2,296,481,395 County Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue
County Prop 172 Sales Tax Rate d 0.50%
County Share of Prop 172 Revenue [1] e 95.00%
Adjustment for Unincorporated County Costs [2] f 81.59%County Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue g = c * d * e * f $1,704,067 $4,200,671 $6,111,610 $7,209,969 $8,362,507 $8,899,797 sales
Source: San Joaquin County; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.[2] Represents an adjustment made to account for the portion of Proposition 172 revenues allocated to services provided only to the unincorporated portions of the County.

Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales Tax Revenue
[1] Provided by San Joaquin County.

San Joaquin
County
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Table B-5AMossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$)Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents Residential Development Table A-3
Low Density Residential 2,088 3,628 4,790 5,313 6,902 8,332High Density Residential 899 1,613 1,968 2,150 2,150 2,150Total Residential Development 2,987 5,241 6,758 7,463 9,052 10,481 Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1]
Low Density Residential $24,000 $50,116,138 $87,069,418 $114,953,578 $127,519,498 $165,645,898 $199,959,658High Density Residential $15,000 $13,479,600 $24,195,600 $29,525,400 $32,246,700 $32,246,700 $32,246,700Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $63,595,738 $111,265,018 $144,478,978 $159,766,198 $197,892,598 $232,206,358 Estimated Countywide Capture from New Households [2] 80% $50,876,590 $89,012,014 $115,583,182 $127,812,958 $158,314,078 $185,765,086 Estimated Taxable Sales Inside Project Area 50% $25,438,295 $44,506,007 $57,791,591 $63,906,479 $79,157,039 $92,882,543Estimated Taxable Sales Outside Project Area 50% $25,438,295 $44,506,007 $57,791,591 $63,906,479 $79,157,039 $92,882,543 Annual Taxable Sales from New Employment
Taxable Sales from New Employment
Employees Table A-4 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560Average Daily Taxable Sales per New Employee $10.00Work Days per Year 240Taxable Sales from New Employees [3] 50%Total Taxable Sales from New Employees $11,336,400 $25,395,600 $35,628,000 $41,784,000 $46,786,800 $48,672,000 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Employees [2] 90% $9,069,120 $20,316,480 $28,502,400 $33,427,200 $37,429,440 $38,937,600 Estimated Taxable Sales Inside Project Area 70% $6,348,384 $14,221,536 $19,951,680 $23,399,040 $26,200,608 $27,256,320Estimated Taxable Sales Outside Project Area 30% $2,720,736 $6,094,944 $8,550,720 $10,028,160 $11,228,832 $11,681,280 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $59,945,710 $109,328,494 $144,085,582 $161,240,158 $195,743,518 $224,702,686 Taxable City Sales Inside Project Area $31,786,679 $58,727,543 $77,743,271 $87,305,519 $105,357,647 $120,138,863Taxable City Sales Outside Project Area $28,159,031 $50,600,951 $66,342,311 $73,934,639 $90,385,871 $104,563,823 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; San Joaquin County; EPS.[1] For details pertaining to household taxable expenditure assumptions, refer to Table D-3.[2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place in San Joaquin County.[3] Taxable sales from employees discounted by 50% to account for employees who also are residents.

Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
Occupied Dwelling Units
Taxable Retail Expenditures
San Joaquin
County
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Table B-5BMossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual Taxable Sales from On-Site Nonresidential (2020$) Annual
Taxable Sales
Item per Sq. Ft. [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Taxable Sales from Commercial Development Taxable Sales Generating Occupied Commercial Development Square Feet Retail Commercial 1,740,779 4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457Total 1,740,779 4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457 Annual Taxable Sales from On-Site Commercial Development Retail $240 $417,787,076 $1,079,529,575 $1,585,582,941 $1,875,605,991 $2,181,233,835 $2,319,229,701Total $417,787,076 $1,079,529,575 $1,585,582,941 $1,875,605,991 $2,181,233,835 $2,319,229,701 Less Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (in the Project) [2] $31,786,679 $58,727,543 $77,743,271 $87,305,519 $105,357,647 $120,138,863Annual Sales Less Market Support $386,000,397 $1,020,802,032 $1,507,839,670 $1,788,300,472 $2,075,876,188 $2,199,090,838 Shift from
Existing Retail
Less Shift of Sales from Existing Regional and Community Retail to the Project [3] 10% $41,778,708 $107,952,958 $158,558,294 $187,560,599 $218,123,383 $231,922,970Total Taxable Sales from Retail Commercial Uses $344,221,690 $912,849,074 $1,349,281,376 $1,600,739,873 $1,857,752,804 $1,967,167,868Occupied Nonretail Commercial Uses Office Commercial 769,935 1,871,629 2,404,004 2,717,458 2,916,766 2,970,145Industrial 6,339,247 10,478,964 14,327,532 16,975,016 17,952,024 17,952,024Total 7,109,182 12,350,593 16,731,536 19,692,473 20,868,789 20,922,168 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Uses
Office Commercial $5 $3,849,677 $9,358,146 $12,020,021 $13,587,288 $14,583,828 $14,850,723Industrial $5 $31,696,234 $52,394,818 $71,637,658 $84,875,078 $89,760,119 $89,760,119Total $35,545,911 $61,752,964 $83,657,679 $98,462,367 $104,343,947 $104,610,842 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Development $35,545,911 $61,752,964 $83,657,679 $98,462,367 $104,343,947 $104,610,842 Total Nonresidential Taxable Sales $379,767,600 $974,602,038 $1,432,939,055 $1,699,202,239 $1,962,096,751 $2,071,778,709 sales b
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS.[2] Estimated in Table B-5A.

Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
[3] Represents a discount factor to account for taxable sales transactions that may shift from the cities' existing Regional- and Community-serving retail centers to those included in the Project.[1] See Table D-4 for the taxable retail sales calculation. All retail is assumed to be community serving retail. Sales per square foot for the Retail space is based on average total sales per square foot figure derived from BizMiner and eMarketer data (escalated to 2020$) and converts total sales to taxable sales per square foot to account for a small portion of non-taxable goods sold.

San Joaquin
County
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
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APPENDIX C:

General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Table C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................. I-16 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures ................... I-17 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
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Table C-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyExpenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net County or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment Net FY 2020-21 Item Procedure Expenditures Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cost Factor [1] Avg. Cost General Fund
General Government
Legislative & Administrative Persons Served $6,227,194 ($286,105) $5,941,089 914,732 $6.49 100% $6.49Finance Persons Served $54,203,124 ($15,273,674) $38,929,450 914,732 $42.56 100% $42.56County Counsel Persons Served $536,073 ($185,262) $350,811 914,732 $0.38 100% $0.38Human Resources Persons Served $2,951,843 ($862,982) $2,088,861 914,732 $2.28 100% $2.28Elections Persons Served $9,613,575 ($5,293,315) $4,320,260 914,732 $4.72 100% $4.72Property Management Persons Served $18,563,221 ($658,989) $17,904,232 914,732 $19.57 100% $19.57Economic Promotion [3] $419,781 ($510,000) ($90,219) N/A N/A 100% N/A Other General Persons Served $7,128,467 ($1,994,885) $5,133,582 914,732 $5.61 100% $5.61Total General Government $99,643,278 ($25,065,212) $74,578,066 Public Protection
Judicial Persons Served $99,942,302 ($41,373,427) $58,568,875 914,732 $64.03 100% $64.03Police Protection [2] Countywide Police Protection Persons Served $28,852,310 ($1,250,807) $27,601,503 914,732 $30.17 100% $30.17Unincorporated County Police Protection [3] $64,810,501 ($35,937,052) $28,873,449 N/A N/A 100% N/A Detention and Corrections Persons Served $125,277,743 ($61,904,073) $63,373,670 914,732 $69.28 100% $69.28Flood Control Persons Served $670,000 ($670,000) $0 914,732 - 100% - Protective Inspection Persons Served $18,678,578 ($11,679,174) $6,999,404 914,732 $7.65 100% $7.65Other Protection Persons Served $8,227,084 ($7,918,171) $308,913 914,732 $0.34 100% $0.34Total Public Protection $346,458,518 ($160,732,704) $185,725,814 Public Ways and Facilities [3] $40,000 ($40,000) $0 N/A N/A 100% N/A Health and Sanitation Health Services Per Capita $96,285,002 ($69,516,326) $26,768,676 773,632 $34.60 100% $34.60Sanitation Per Capita $9,000 ($9,000) $0 773,632 - 100% - Total Health and Sanitation $96,294,002 ($69,525,326) $26,768,676 Public Assistance
Administration Per Capita $190,949,113 ($190,949,113) $0 773,632 - 100% - Aid Programs Per Capita $215,832,666 ($200,206,142) $15,626,524 773,632 $20.20 100% $20.20General Relief Per Capita $950,000 $0 $950,000 773,632 $1.23 100% $1.23Other Assistance Per Capita $39,965,240 ($33,695,007) $6,270,233 773,632 $8.10 100% $8.10Veterans Services Per Capita $524,873 ($197,210) $327,663 773,632 $0.42 100% $0.42Total Public Assistance $448,221,892 ($425,047,472) $23,174,420 Education
Agriculture Education Per Capita $846,913 $0 $846,913 773,632 $1.09 100% $1.09Total Education $846,913 $0 $846,913 Recreation
Recreation Services Per Capita $6,678,208 ($2,059,971) $4,618,237 773,632 $5.97 100% $5.97Cultural Services Per Capita $495,550 $0 $495,550 773,632 $0.64 100% $0.64Total Recreation $7,173,758 ($2,059,971) $5,113,787 Contingency Reserve $816,330 ($4,974,834) ($4,158,504) N/A N/A 100% N/A Total General Fund Expenditures $999,494,691 ($687,445,519) $312,049,172 exp pro
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; San Joaquin County Administrator; EPS.[1] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department expenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment.

San Joaquin
County
[2] A majority of the police protection budget serves the unincorporated County population only. This analysis excludes this portion of the budget and only accounts for countywide cost impacts.[3] These cost categories serve the unincorporated County population only and have been excluded from the analysis.

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Table C-2Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyEstimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)Expenditure Category 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)General Fund General Government
Legislative & Administrative $90,029 $172,677 $231,036 $261,861 $309,446 $345,191Finance $589,922 $1,131,477 $1,513,884 $1,715,866 $2,027,670 $2,261,889County Counsel $5,316 $10,196 $13,642 $15,462 $18,272 $20,383 Human Resources $31,654 $60,712 $81,231 $92,069 $108,800 $121,368 Elections $65,468 $125,567 $168,006 $190,421 $225,024 $251,017Property Management $271,314 $520,383 $696,258 $789,152 $932,555 $1,040,276Other General $77,792 $149,207 $199,634 $226,269 $267,386 $298,273Total General Government $1,131,495 $2,170,219 $2,903,692 $3,291,102 $3,889,153 $4,338,396 Public Protection
Judicial $887,530 $1,702,292 $2,277,620 $2,581,499 $3,050,604 $3,402,984Police Protection $418,263 $802,232 $1,073,364 $1,216,572 $1,437,645 $1,603,710Detention and Corrections $960,340 $1,841,943 $2,464,468 $2,793,277 $3,300,865 $3,682,154Protective Inspection $106,066 $203,436 $272,192 $308,508 $364,569 $406,681Other Protection $4,681 $8,978 $12,013 $13,616 $16,090 $17,949Total Public Protection $2,376,881 $4,558,882 $6,099,658 $6,913,472 $8,169,773 $9,113,478 Health and Sanitation
Health Services $316,187 $553,794 $717,181 $792,647 $974,027 $1,137,276Total Health and Sanitation $316,187 $553,794 $717,181 $792,647 $974,027 $1,137,276 Public Assistance
Administration - - - - - -
Aid Programs $184,578 $323,284 $418,663 $462,717 $568,599 $663,898General Relief $11,221 $19,654 $25,452 $28,130 $34,567 $40,361 Other Assistance $74,063 $129,719 $167,991 $185,668 $228,154 $266,393Veterans Services $3,870 $6,779 $8,779 $9,702 $11,923 $13,921 Total Public Assistance $273,732 $479,435 $620,885 $686,217 $843,243 $984,573 Education
Agriculture Education $10,004 $17,521 $22,690 $25,078 $30,816 $35,981Total Education $10,004 $17,521 $22,690 $25,078 $30,816 $35,981 Recreation
Recreation Services $54,550 $95,543 $123,731 $136,751 $168,043 $196,207Cultural Services $5,853 $10,252 $13,277 $14,674 $18,031 $21,054Total Recreation $60,403 $105,795 $137,008 $151,424 $186,074 $217,261 Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $4,168,701 $7,885,646 $10,501,114 $11,859,939 $14,093,087 $15,826,964 exp
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.

Estimated Annual Expenditure
San Joaquin
County
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APPENDIX D:

Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Table D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area (2 pages) ............................................ I-18 Table D-2 Cumulative Assessed Valuation ...................................... I-20 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annual Household Income .................. I-21 Table D-4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet ................. I-22 ATTACHMENT 1 - ITEM 5.1
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Table D-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyPreliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entity TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-100 TRA 102-121 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 22.29650% 22.30610% 20.32600% 20.29360% 19.80000% 22.38190%10527 Road District 1 4.26040% 4.26030% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000%10527 Road District 5 0.00000% 0.00000% 3.97920% 3.97840% 3.87760% 4.26700%14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire 0.00000% 0.00000% 8.83690% 8.84610% 8.62190% 0.00000%14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire 9.60300% 9.60300% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 9.45470% City General Fund 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% Subtotal 36.15990% 36.16940% 33.14210% 33.11810% 32.29950% 36.10360% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.80010% 1.80010% 1.63940% 1.63910% 1.59760% 1.80310%12601 Manteca Unified Schools 29.58380% 29.58380% 26.94230% 26.93720% 26.25470% 29.62960%13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 4.00510% 4.00510% 3.64750% 3.64670% 3.55440% 4.01150%13201 County Office Of Education 1.43850% 1.42890% 1.28960% 1.31780% 1.26400% 1.38930%16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.17560% 0.17570% 0.16000% 0.15990% 0.15580% 0.17590%21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.78840% 0.78840% 0.71800% 0.71790% 0.69960% 0.78940%24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 0.00000% 0.00000% 5.41160% 5.41660% 0.00000% 0.00000%14901 Lathrop Manteca Fire District 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000%22001 Reclamation District #17 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000%24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 5.27940% 0.00000%25301 CSA No. 4 Lathrop 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 1.54290% 0.00000%41100 ERAF 26.04860% 26.04860% 27.04950% 27.04670% 27.35210% 26.09760% Subtotal 63.84010% 63.83060% 66.85790% 66.88190% 67.70050% 63.89640% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller.[2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreements between San Joaquin County and the Cities of Stockton, Lathrop, and Manteca related to annexed areas to the City.

Existing Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1]
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Table D-1Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyPreliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entity TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-100 TRA 102-121 Total Subject to Detachment
10001 County General $172,291 ($796) $228,594 $14,804 $12,654 $24,209 $451,756 80% $587,765 27.32264%10527 Road District 1 $32,921 ($152) - - - - $32,769 - - 0.00000%10527 Road District 5 - - $44,751 $2,902 $2,478 $4,615 $54,746 - - 0.00000%14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire - - $99,384 $6,453 $5,510 - $111,347 - - 0.00000%14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire $74,205 ($343) - - - $10,226 $84,088 - - 0.00000% City General Fund - - - - - - - 20% $146,941 6.83066%
Subtotal $279,417 ($1,291) $372,728 $24,160 $20,642 $39,050 $734,707 100% $734,707 34.15330% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library $13,910 ($64) $18,437 $1,196 $1,021 $1,950 $36,450 - $36,450 1.69441%12601 Manteca Unified Schools $228,602 ($1,056) $303,000 $19,651 $16,779 $32,048 $599,023 - $599,023 27.84598%13001 S.J. Delta Comm College $30,949 ($143) $41,021 $2,660 $2,272 $4,339 $81,097 - $81,097 3.76986%13201 County Office Of Education $11,116 ($51) $14,501 $961 $808 $1,503 $28,838 - $28,838 1.34054%16001 Sjc Flood Control $1,357 ($6) $1,799 $117 $100 $190 $3,556 - $3,556 0.16532%21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement $6,092 ($28) $8,075 $524 $447 $854 $15,963 - $15,963 0.74205%24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation - - $60,861 $3,951 - - $64,813 - $64,813 3.01287%14901 Lathrop Manteca Fire District - - - - - $15,249 $15,249 - $15,249 0.70887%22001 Reclamation District #17 - - - - - $1,507 $1,507 - $1,507 0.07004%24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation - - - - $3,374 - $3,37425301 CSA No. 4 Lathrop - - - - $986 - $98641100 ERAF $201,285 ($930) $304,205 $19,731 $17,480 $28,227 $569,999 - $569,999 26.49675% Subtotal $493,311 ($2,279) $751,899 $48,791 $43,267 $85,867 $1,420,856 - $1,416,496 65.84670% Total $772,729 ($3,570) $1,124,627 $72,951 $63,909 $124,917 $2,155,562 100% $2,151,202 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller.[2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreements between San Joaquin County and the Cities of Stockton, Lathrop, and Manteca related to annexed areas to the City.

San Joaquin
County
Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
Property TaxSharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Base
Revenue
Post-ERAF
Distribution
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Table D-2Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance PlanFiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin CountyCumulative Assessed Valuation (2020$)Item 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)Development Projections in Current City Limits Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $976,370,500 $1,590,370,500 $2,125,770,500 $2,408,495,500 $3,295,745,500 $4,094,270,500High Density Residential $200,000 $191,200,000 $343,200,000 $418,800,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000Subtotal Residential $1,167,570,500 $1,933,570,500 $2,544,570,500 $2,865,895,500 $3,753,145,500 $4,551,670,500 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $422,992,692 $1,046,381,958 $1,437,683,875 $1,626,036,408 $1,784,961,908 $1,839,087,658Office Commercial $250 $208,090,642 $505,845,708 $649,730,875 $734,448,008 $788,315,008 $802,741,758Industrial $100 $685,323,975 $1,132,860,930 $1,435,782,130 $1,646,569,830 $1,752,192,330 $1,752,192,330Subtotal Nonresidential $1,316,407,308 $2,685,088,597 $3,523,196,880 $4,007,054,247 $4,325,469,247 $4,394,021,747 Total All Land Uses $2,483,977,808 $4,618,659,097 $6,067,767,380 $6,872,949,747 $8,078,614,747 $8,945,692,247Development Projections in Annexation Areas Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000Subtotal Owner-Occupied Residential $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $47,488,250 $169,304,500 $347,882,500 $486,132,500 $671,382,500 $772,657,500Industrial $100 - - $113,140,200 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 Subtotal Nonresidential $47,488,250 $169,304,500 $461,022,700 $674,699,500 $859,949,500 $961,224,500 Total All Land Uses $185,363,250 $514,679,500 $890,897,700 $1,104,574,500 $1,289,824,500 $1,391,099,500 Total San Joaquin County Development Projections
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $1,114,245,500 $1,935,745,500 $2,555,645,500 $2,838,370,500 $3,725,620,500 $4,524,145,500High Density Residential $200,000 $191,200,000 $343,200,000 $418,800,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000Subtotal Residential $1,305,445,500 $2,278,945,500 $2,974,445,500 $3,295,770,500 $4,183,020,500 $4,981,545,500 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.

Retail Commercial $250 $470,480,942 $1,215,686,458 $1,785,566,375 $2,112,168,908 $2,456,344,408 $2,611,745,158Office Commercial $250 $208,090,642 $505,845,708 $649,730,875 $734,448,008 $788,315,008 $802,741,758Industrial $100 $685,323,975 $1,132,860,930 $1,548,922,330 $1,835,136,830 $1,940,759,330 $1,940,759,330Subtotal Nonresidential $1,363,895,558 $2,854,393,097 $3,984,219,580 $4,681,753,747 $5,185,418,747 $5,355,246,247 Total All Land Uses $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
AV
Source: Costar; CBRE; The Gregory Group; EPS.[1] Refer to Table A-5 for details.

Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
Total Assessed Value (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
[2] Countywide Project assessed value is calculated as the sum of the Project assessed values for Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton, based on differing assessed value assumptions by jurisdiction. The assessed value per unit for low density residential is assumed to be $450,000 in the City of Stockton and $500,000 in the City of Manteca, and $525,000 in the City of Lathrop. as the phasing of the Project varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, the average assessed value per unit for low density residential Countywide varies between phases.

San Joaquin
County
[2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowners' Association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance. High density residential based on an average monthly rent assumption of $1,500 based on data on similar multifamily residential obtained from Costar and an average size of 1,000 square feet. [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.

Year CPI Adjustment to 2019$
2008 219.65 25.9%2016 247.71 11.7%2018 263.26 5.1%2019 270.35 2.3%2020 276.59 0.0% [2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008.[3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes taxable sales per square foot for dealerships.[4][5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008, escalated to 2020$.[6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services.[7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.

Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2020$) [1]
Total Retail Sales by Shopping Center Type
Neighborhood Community Regional
Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS.

Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSales, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports, escalated to 2020$.

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Manteca City CouncilApril 18, 2022

Manteca City Council
April 18, 2022