Manteca City Council
June 7, 2022

M E M O R A N D U M
To: Lea Simvoulakis; City of Manteca
J.D. Hightower; City of Manteca
From: Jamie Gomes; EPS
Subject: Addendum to Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review; EPS #202114
Date: April 13, 2022
This memorandum is an addendum to the September 14, 2021, EPS memorandum entitled Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review. This addendum provides an update to property tax revenue estimates for the Lumina at Machado project (Project) reflecting a validated methodology for the splits of the property tax revenues among various taxing entities should the Project successfully annex into the City of Manteca (City).

When the affirmed methodology is used, EPS estimates similar property tax revenues that may accrue to the City and County of San Joaquin (County) from the project as were estimated in applicant-prepared fiscal impact analysis. The attached Table 1 illustrates the estimated property tax revenues are now within $1,000 of those estimated by DPFG, the firm who prepared the applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis.

Aside from the updated property tax revenue estimates, all other revenue and expenditure estimates in the attached Table 1 are unchanged from the September 2021 EPS memorandum. Consequently, the findings included in the September 2021 memorandum are unchanged as a result of this addendum. Please contact me at 916-649- 8010 with any questions.

ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table 1Lumina at MachadoFiscal Impact Analysis
Comparison of Key Assumptions, Revenues and Expenditures Item
Base Tax
Share Scenario
Master Tax
Share Scenario DPFG
Base Tax
Share Scenario
Master Tax
Share Scenario
Assumptions
Persons per Household 3.18Property Turnover Rates 14.3%Vacancy Rates 6.5% City Sales Tax Capture Rate 35%
Revenue Estimates
Property Taxes $791,000 $282,000 $790,000 $1,000 ($508,000)Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $331,000 $331,000 $331,300 ($300) ($300)Sales Taxes $149,000 $149,000 $70,700 $78,300 $78,300All Other Revenues $125,000 $125,000 $130,500 ($5,500) ($5,500)Total $1,396,000 $887,000 $1,322,500 $73,500 ($435,500) Expenditure Estimates
Public Safety [1] $724,000 $724,000 $720,300 $3,700 $3,700Parks $119,000 $119,000 $156,800 ($37,800) ($37,800)General Government/Other $228,000 $228,000 $139,300 $88,700 $88,700Total $1,071,000 $1,071,000 $1,016,400 $54,600 $54,600 Net Fiscal Surplus/(Deficit) $325,000 ($184,000) $306,100 $18,900 ($490,100)Net Surplus/(Deficit) per Unit $393 ($222) $370 $23 ($593) comp
Source: EPS and DPFG[1] Includes Police Services, Animal Control, and Fire Services.

EPS

3.18 14.3%

6.0%
75%
Difference

0.000.0%
-0.5%
40%
Prepared by EPS 3/23/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Models\202114 fiscal m4 09.10.21 ATTACHMENT 16

M EMORANDUM
To: J.D. Hightower, City of Manteca Deputy Director of
Planning
From: Jamie Gomes
Subject: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer
Review; EPS #202114
Date: September 14, 2021
The City of Manteca (City) requested Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) conduct a peer review of the fiscal impact analysis for the Lumina at Machado Project (Project). The fiscal impact analysis was prepared for the Project applicant, Signature Homes (Applicant), by Development Planning and Financing Group (DPFG).

Summary
EPS reviewed the assumptions, methodology, and calculations in the Applicant-provided Project fiscal impact analysis. Generally, the fiscal impact analysis employs typical methodological approaches commonly found in California fiscal impact analyses. As a means of comparison, using the Project land use information, EPS prepared a separate fiscal impact analysis using a recent fiscal impact analysis model EPS developed in conjunction with City staff. The EPS model is also based on the City’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2020-21 General Fund Budget and related underlying City demographic assumptions.

Fiscal Impact Analysis Results and Conclusions
Because the City has expressed a desire to engage with
San Joaquin County (County) regarding the property tax split for the proposed annexation, this peer-review analysis examines two potential different tax split outcomes, an estimated 60/40 County/City property tax allocation based on the recent Griffin Park annexation, and an alternative 80/20 allocation based the existing master tax sharing agreement between the City and the County.

Table 1 summarizes differences in assumptions, as well as key revenue and expenditure estimates between the EPS and the DPFG fiscal impact analyses. Key differences in assumptions are ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx described in more detail later in this memorandum. This section focuses on differences in revenue and expenditure estimates under each property tax scenario.

Base Property Tax Split Scenario
When estimated based on the 60/40 County/City tax sharing agreement negotiated between the City and the County for the Griffin Park annexation, the EPS revenue estimates are approximately 12 percent higher than the DPFG revenue estimates. Key differences are in estimates of property taxes (EPS is lower) and sales taxes (EPS is higher).

On the expenditure side, EPS estimates of $1.07 million annually at buildout are approximately 5 percent higher than DPFG’s estimates of $1.02 million annually. Key differences are higher Public Safety and Parks expenditures (in the EPS analysis) compared to lower general government/other expenditures in the EPS analysis as compared to the DPFG analysis.

Overall, EPS estimates a lower net fiscal surplus to the City’s General Fund at Project buildout under the base property tax split scenario as compared to the surplus estimated in the DPFG analysis. As shown in Table 1, the EPS analysis estimates annual fiscal surplus of approximately $119 per dwelling unit under this scenario.

Existing Master Tax Share Agreement Scenario
When estimated based on the existing master tax sharing agreement between the City and the County, the EPS revenue estimates are approximately 33 percent lower than the DPFG revenue estimates. Consistent with the base scenario, key differences are in estimates of property taxes (EPS is lower) and sales taxes (EPS is higher).

There are no changes to the expenditure side between the two scenarios, with EPS estimates of revenues approximately 5 percent higher than DPFG’s estimates.

Overall, EPS estimates an annual net deficit to the City’s General Fund at Project buildout under the master tax share agreement scenario as compared to the surplus estimated in the DPFG analysis. As shown in Table 1, the EPS analysis estimates annual fiscal deficits of approximately $222 per dwelling unit under this scenario.

Sensitivity Analysis
The above-summarized results were derived using the Applicant-provided assumptions regarding finished home sales prices. Estimated values for the largest lot sizes at $655,000 per unit appear to be above the existing market comparables; however, overall weighted average pricing is approximately $515,000 across all unit types. EPS has reviewed these assumptions and believes they represent the upper end of existing home pricing for similar lot sizes based on a review of new home sales in Manteca, Lathrop, Lodi, Stockton, and Tracy.

ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
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Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Table 1. Comparison of Key Assumptions, Revenues, and Expenditures Item
Base Tax
Share Scenario
Master Tax
Share Scenario DPFG
Base Tax
Share Scenario
Master Tax
Share Scenario
Assumptions
Persons per Household 3.18Property Turnover Rates 14.3%Vacancy Rates 6.5%City Sales Tax Capture Rate 35% Revenue Estimates
Property Taxes $564,000 $282,000 $790,000 ($226,000) ($508,000)Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $331,000 $331,000 $331,300 ($300) ($300)Sales Taxes $149,000 $149,000 $70,700 $78,300 $78,300All Other Revenues $125,000 $125,000 $130,500 ($5,500) ($5,500)Total $1,169,000 $887,000 $1,322,500 ($153,500) ($435,500) Expenditure Estimates
Public Safety [1] $724,000 $724,000 $720,300 $3,700 $3,700Parks $119,000 $119,000 $156,800 ($37,800) ($37,800)General Government/Other $228,000 $228,000 $139,300 $88,700 $88,700Total $1,071,000 $1,071,000 $1,016,400 $54,600 $54,600 Net Fiscal Surplus/(Deficit) $98,000 ($184,000) $306,100 ($208,100) ($490,100)Net Surplus/(Deficit) per Unit $119 ($222) $370 ($252) ($593) comp
Source: EPS and DPFG[1] Includes Police Services, Animal Control, and Fire Services.

EPS

3.18 14.3%

6.0%
75%
Difference

0.00 0.0%
-0.5%
40%
ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx Conclusion
As demonstrated in this peer review analysis, the potential fiscal impacts of the Project on the City’s General Fund will vary depending on the ultimate agreement or decision regarding property tax splits. Consistent with other recent annexations, if the Project is estimated to cause an annual fiscal deficit to the City, the City may require the Project to form or annex into a Mello-Roos Community Facilities District (CFD) to fund the ongoing cost of providing police and fire protection and general governmental services in perpetuity.

Peer Review Approach and Information
Sources
In reviewing the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis, EPS reviewed the following assumptions and calculations:
 Estimated finished real estate values.
 Property tax allocation factor.
 Estimated sales tax revenue forecasts.
 City budget analysis (where revenue and expenditure multipliers are derived).  Case study methodologies for selected revenue and expenditure items.  Calculations of revenues and expenditures and findings of net fiscal impacts.

For convenience, the Applicant-provided analysis is included as Attachment 1. The EPS fiscal impact analysis is included as Attachment 2.

Selected Peer Review Comments
Generally, the methodology and calculations included in the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis adhere to typical industry standards for California fiscal impact analyses.

The observations below primarily describe key differences in assumptions between the Applicant-provided analysis and the EPS analysis. EPS had the benefit of having recently worked directly with City finance department staff to vet the budget analysis used in the fiscal impact model. Adhering to that same budget analysis ensures consistency for the City in evaluating new development projects.

Fiscal Year 2020-21 Budget Analysis
The fiscal impact analysis estimates Project revenues and expenditures based on an analysis of the City’s posted FY 2020-21 Annual Budget, approved and posted by the City in June 2020. In March 2021, the City amended the FY 2020-21 Annual Budget to account for the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The budget amendment included significant changes to the FY 2020-21 Annual Budget posted in June 2020. The amended budget included a reduction of approximately $1.2 million (2.5 percent) in ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
Page | 5
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) General Fund revenues and an increase of approximately $4.8 million (9.7 percent) in General Fund expenditures. While there have been amendments to the majority of expenditure categories, the largest adjustments were made to General Government expenditure categories, resulting in an increase of approximately $6.1 million in General Government expenditures. Accounting for the amended FY 2020-21 budget results in slightly higher expenditure per person served/per capita multipliers in the EPS analysis.

General Assumptions
DPFG used information obtained from the California Department of Finance, current as of January 1, 2021, to estimate persons per household. EPS typically estimates persons per household using recent American Community Survey data. As both data sources provided similar persons per household estimates, EPS used the persons per household estimate of

3.18, consistent with the Applicant-provided analysis and Department of Finance data.

Both the Applicant-provided analysis and the EPS analysis assume residential properties turn over every 7 years. Finally, EPS typically includes a slightly lower vacancy rate of

6.0 percent, based on the most recent data available from the American Community Census, slightly lower than the vacancy rate assumption included in the Applicantprovided analysis of 6.5 percent.

In terms of household income, the primary difference in the estimates is that EPS assumed a higher mortgage interest rate of 5 percent versus 4.5 percent. Because of rounding of household income in the analyses, estimated household incomes in the EPS and Applicant-provided analyses are consistent.

Revenue Estimates
The Applicant-provided analysis estimates General Fund revenues to the City at Project buildout at approximately $1.3 million annually, and the EPS analysis estimates General Fund revenues to the City at Project buildout at approximately $1.2 million annually.

Property Taxes
Because of differing property tax allocation assumptions, the EPS analysis estimates a significantly lower annual estimate of property-related tax revenues under both the base and master tax sharing scenarios. The Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis estimated the post-annexation City’s share of property tax revenues based on the property tax sharing agreement negotiated between the City and the County for the recent Griffin Park annexation. The Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis reflected a scenario in which the City would receive 40 percent of property tax revenues generated in excess of base year revenues, which will be allocated fully to the County. In addition to the 40 percent share of County revenues, the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis assumes the City would receive the full allocation of property tax previously received by the LathropManteca Rural Fire District. Based on these assumptions, the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis estimates the Project would generate approximately $790,000 in property tax revenues.

ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx Based on discussions with the County Auditor Controllers Office, EPS has determined that the Griffin Park annexation agreement reflects a City allocation of 40 percent of all applicable revenues, including the allocation previously received by the Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire District. As such, the base allocation scenario included in the EPS Analysis reflects a 60/40 County/City allocation for all applicable revenue sources. In this scenario, EPS estimates the Project would generate approximately $564,000 in property tax revenue annually, approximately $226,000 lower than the applicant provided fiscal.

In addition to the base allocation scenario, EPS estimated an additional property tax sharing scenario based on the most recent master tax sharing agreement between the City and the County, dated November 2018. This agreement indicates that following annexation, the City would receive 20 percent of eligible property tax revenues, and the County would retain the remaining 80 percent of revenues. Eligible property taxes include revenues to the County General Fund, County Library, and Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire District. Based on the terms of the existing master tax sharing agreement, it is anticipated that the Project would generate approximately $282,000 in property tax revenue annually, a reduction of $508,000 from the Applicant-provided fiscal estimate.

Sales Taxes
Both fiscal impact analyses estimate general and Prop 172 public safety sales tax revenues attributed to the Project based an anticipated citywide capture of new household retail spending. To estimate the City’s capture of retail spending, the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis includes a conservative citywide capture rate of 35 percent of household spending. Because of the Project’s location on the southern border of the City, within 3 miles of several retail opportunities, including grocery, convenience, department, and specialty stores and additional research into existing Citywide sales and population trends, EPS believes that the estimated capture rate of 35 percent included in the Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis underestimates potential sales tax revenues generated by the Project. The EPS analysis includes an estimated citywide capture of 75 percent of household spending in the City.

Other Revenues
Primarily because of a slightly higher vacancy rate and amended budget assumptions, EPS’s estimates of other revenues are slightly lower than the Applicant-provided analysis.

Expenditure Estimates
Primarily driven by amended FY 2020-21 General Fund budget assumptions, the EPS analysis estimates annual General Fund costs to serve the Project at approximately 3 percent higher than estimated in the Applicant-provided analysis.

ATTACHMENT 16
Memorandum: Lumina at Machado Fiscal Impact Analysis Peer Review September 14, 2021
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Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Report\202114 m02 09-14-21.docx Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Expenditure Multiplier Methodology
The Applicant-provided fiscal impact analysis estimates all expenditures using a per person served multiplier, except for Storm Drainage and Street expenditures, which are estimated on a per capita basis. EPS similarly estimates all expenditures using a per persons served or per capita multiplier. The EPS analysis estimates all expenditure categories using a per persons served multiplier, with the exception of Parks and Recreation expenditures, which are estimated using a per capita multiplier methodology as these expenditure categories are used primarily by City residents. While the impact of this difference is minimal, the EPS methodology results in a slightly higher multiplier for Parks and Recreation expenditures and a slightly lower multiplier for Storm Drainage and Streets expenditures.

ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table 2Lumina at MachadoFiscal Impact AnalysisSummary of Annual Surplus/Deficits (2020$)Item Annual Fiscal Impact Annual General Fund Revenues $1,169,000Annual General Fund Expenditures $1,071,000Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $98,000 sum
Source: EPS.

Estimated Annual
Revenues/Expenditures
(Rounded)
Base Tax Share Scenario
Prepared by EPS 9/12/2021 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Models\202114 fiscal m3 09.10.21 8 ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table 3A
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures (2020$)
Item
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes $564,000
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees $331,000
Real Property Transfer Tax $34,000
Sales and Use Taxes $145,000
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax $4,000
Transient Occupancy Tax $28,000
Licenses and Permits -
Business Licenses $17,000
Franchise Fees $46,000
Total General Fund Revenue $1,169,000
Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy $20,000
Legal Services $12,000
City Administration $10,000
Public Works Administration $2,000
Non Departmental $119,000
Human Resources $21,000
Fiscal and Revenue Management $12,000
Economic and Community Development $5,000
Fleet Maintenance $6,000
Subtotal General Government $207,000
Public Safety
Police Protection $483,000
Animal Services $5,000
Fire Protection $236,000
Subtotal Public Safety $724,000
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $86,000
Library $4,000
Recreational and Senior Services $29,000
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $119,000 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $9,000
Subtotal Public Utilities $9,000
Transportation
Streets $12,000
Subtotal Transportation $12,000
Total General Fund Expenditures $1,071,000
Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $98,000
det sum
Source: EPS.

Estimated Annual
Revenues / Expenditures
(Rounded)
Base Tax
Share Scenario
(60/40 Allocation)
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DRAFT
Table 3B
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures (2020$)
Item
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes $282,000
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees $331,000
Real Property Transfer Tax $34,000
Sales and Use Taxes $145,000
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax $4,000
Transient Occupancy Tax $28,000
Licenses and Permits -
Business Licenses $17,000
Franchise Fees $46,000
Total General Fund Revenue $887,000
Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy $20,400
Legal Services $12,000
City Administration $10,400
Public Works Administration $2,000
Non Departmental $119,300
Human Resources $21,400
Fiscal and Revenue Management $11,600
Economic and Community Development $4,800
Fleet Maintenance $5,900
Subtotal General Government $207,800
Public Safety
Police Protection $483,400
Animal Services $5,100
Fire Protection $236,500
Subtotal Public Safety $725,000
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $85,700
Library $3,900
Recreational and Senior Services $29,100
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $118,700 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $8,700
Subtotal Public Utilities $8,700
Transportation
Streets $12,300
Subtotal Transportation $12,300
Total General Fund Expenditures $1,072,500
Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) ($185,500)
det sum
Source: EPS.

Estimated Annual
Revenues / Expenditures
(Rounded)
Master Tax
Share Scenario
(80/20 Allocation)
Prepared by EPS 9/12/2021 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\202000\202114 Manteca Lumina at Machado Ranch Fiscal\Models\202114 fiscal m3 09.10.21 10 ATTACHMENT 16
ATTACHMENTS:

Attachment 1: DPFG Fiscal Impact Analysis
Attachment 2: EPS Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT 16
ATTACHMENT 1:

DPFG Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT 16

FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

THE MACHADO PROPERTY
Prepared By:
4380 AUBURN BOULEVARD
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA 95841
DRAFT
November 16, 2020
ATTACHMENT 16
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Project Overview ................................................................................................................................. 1 Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary ...................................................................................................... 1 II. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of Report ............................................................................................................................... 1 Organization of Report ....................................................................................................................... 2 III. Project Description .............................................................................................................................. 2 Location, Land Uses, and Assumptions ........................................................................................... 2 IV. Methodology and Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 2 Scope and Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 2 General and/or Major Assumptions ................................................................................................. 3 V. Fiscal Impact Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 4 Revenues ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Case Study Method .................................................................................................................. 4 Multiplier Method .................................................................................................................... 5 Expenditures ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Multiplier Method .................................................................................................................... 6 VI. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Annual Net Fiscal Impacts at Buildout ................................................................................. 6 VII. FIA Sources ........................................................................................................................................ 6

DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16

I. Executive Summary
Introduction
This report was prepared by Development Planning and Financing Group, Inc. (“DPFG”) on behalf of Signature Homes (“Developer”) in order to analyze the fiscal impacts of The Machado Property (“Project”), located in San Joaquin County (“County”) and in the process of annexing into the City of Manteca (“City”). This Fiscal Impact Analysis (“FIA”) is intended to estimate the demand that the Project will place on City services and provide an estimate of the revenues that will be generated by the Project to offset the increased demand on services. This report evaluates the build-out of the Project plan area.

Project Overview
The Project consists of approximately 157 acres, planned for land uses totaling 827 residential units. The Project also includes approximately 9.6 acres of parks and drainage basins. The Project site is bounded by E. Woodward Road (north), S. Airport Way (east).

The Project is estimated to generate approximately 2,459 residents.

Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary
The FIA indicates that the Project, at buildout, is estimated to generate a fiscal surplus to the City’s General Fund.

The Project is estimated to generate a total of approximately $1.322 million in revenue for the City General Fund at buildout, against $1.016 million in expenditures (i.e., costs) at buildout, resulting in a combined surplus of $306,100 annually, or approximately $370 per residential unit.

The reader should be aware that any FIA is only as accurate as the assumptions and methodologies used to calculate its results, and actual results will vary from these estimates as events and circumstances occur in a manner different than described in the FIA.

II. Introduction
Purpose of Report
Development Planning and Financing Group, Inc. was retained to prepare this report on behalf of the Developer for The Machado Property. This report and the attached tables describe the methodology, assumptions, and results of the FIA. The Project is located in San Joaquin County and will annex into the City of Manteca.

The purpose of this report is to determine the applicable recurring revenue and expenditure impacts to the City General Fund and quantify the annual net fiscal impacts at buildout of the Project. 1 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Organization of Report
The report describes the Project, methodology, and assumptions applied in the Project FIA, a description of the FIA components for calculating revenues and expenditures, and conclusions of the analysis of the Project at buildout.

III. Project Description
Location, Land Uses, and Assumptions
The Project consists of approximately 157 acres located within San Joaquin County, to be annexed into the City of Manteca. The Project site is bounded by E. Woodward Road (north), S. Airport Way (east).

Residential Development: The anticipated residential yield from the Project area is an additional 827 residential units of varying densities based on information provided by the Developer. The FIA includes an estimated price range for residential units between $427,500 and $655,000.

IV. Methodology and Assumptions
Scope and Methodology
The methodology used to determine the recurring revenue and expenditure impacts to the City as a result of the Project was determined by applying two methodologies, the multiplier method and the case study method.

The multiplier method employs per capita factors based on the City’s fiscal year 2020-2021 provisional budget and number of residents or persons served within the City. The multiplier method uses the current fiscal year budget or projected budget as a baseline to forecast fiscal impacts. Revenue and expenditure funds that are impacted by residents use the City’s total population in determining the fund’s per capita factor. Revenue and expenditure funds that are Product Units/SF
Motor Court                       87 $                      427,500 $                           37,192,500 45'x75'                     122                          480,000                              58,560,000 50'x80'                     208                          500,000                            104,000,000 45'x100'                       67                          520,000                              34,840,000 50'x100'                     191                          537,500                            102,662,500 60'x100'                     120                          565,500                              67,860,000 100'x100'                       32                          655,000                              20,960,000 Total Residential Land Uses                     827 $                      515,206 $                        426,075,000 Total Land Uses $                        426,075,000
Source:

Product mix and pricing per Developer.

Estimated Market
Value Per Unit/SF Total Assessed Valuation
Table 1
Machado Property
Land Use Summary
2 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
impacted by residents use the City’s total persons served in determining the fund’s per capita factor.

The case study method is used to estimate recurring revenue and expenditures when use of the multiplier method will not accurately quantify fiscal impacts. Case study methods are used where estimated revenues are more accurately estimated as a function of tax rates, and/or estimated home prices.

General and/or Major Assumptions
An overview of the general assumptions utilized in the FIA is summarized in Figure 1 below. A more detailed summary of the assumptions used in the FIA can be found in Appendix A.

Anticipated Project Build-Out
Single Family Residential
Motor Court 87 Units
45'x75' 122 Units
50'x80' 208 Units
45'x100' 67 Units
50'x100' 191 Units
60'x100' 120 Units
100'x100' 32 Units
Total Project Residential 827 Units
Initial Market Values
Single Family Residential
Motor Court $ 427,500
45'x75' $ 480,000
50'x80' $ 500,000
45'x100' $ 520,000
50'x100' $ 537,500
60'x100' $ 565,500
100'x100' $ 655,000
Figure 1
Development Data
3 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Buildout Focus
The fiscal impacts of the Project were analyzed based on the estimated revenues and expenditures of the Project at buildout.

V. Fiscal Impact Analysis
Revenue Methodology and Assumptions
This section of the Report describes the methodology used to forecast the Project’s revenues at buildout. The calculations of estimated revenues used either a case-study methodology or a multiplier method (i.e., per capita or per persons served).

The case-study approach was used to estimate Sales and Use Tax, Property Taxes, Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees, and Documentary Stamp Tax Revenues (see Table A.3, A.4).

The multiplier method was used to estimate Property Tax Unsecured, Franchise Fees, and Fines and Penalties (see Table A.1).

Case Study Method
Property Taxes
At buildout, the Project is estimated to have an assessed value of approximately $426.075 million dollars. Table A.6 shows the estimated allocation of tax revenue to each district, fund, and agency after funds have been diverted to the Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (“ERAF”).

Following ERAF allocation, The City will receive 8.8461% of the total 1% property tax revenue.

Additionally because the Project will be annexing into the City a tax sharing agreement between the City and County will need to be negotiated to determine the share of current County property Property Tax Rate (Post ERAF)
City General Fund Share of 1% Tax Rate 8.8461%
City General Fund Share of County 1% Tax Rate x 40% (Net of base revenue) 24.2720% Annual Turnover Rate
Residential 14.30%
City of Manteca Population 84,800
City of Manteca Employees 19,300
City of Manteca Persons Served (Population plus 50% of Employees) 94,450 Persons Per Household
Single Family Residential 3.18
Fiscal Modeling
Population Data
Figure 1 (Continued)
4 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
tax revenues that will go to the City upon annexation. In 2018, the City and County agreed on a tax sharing allocation for the Griffin Park project. That agreements share of property tax revenues was determined to be a 40% share to the City after the base year revenues were allocated to the County. DPFG applied the same methodology to estimate the property tax revenues derived from the Project in this analysis. Annual property tax revenues are summarized in Table A.3.

Documentary Stamp Tax
The City receives this tax at the time in which a new or existing property is sold and ownership is transferred. Documentary stamp tax is collected upon the sale of property at a rate of $1.10 per $1,000 of assessed valuation of which the City receives $0.55 per $1,000 of assessed valuation.

The FIA calculates the documentary stamp tax by using an annual turnover rate of 14.30% (every 7 years) for single family residential units. Annual documentary stamp tax revenues are shown in Table A.3.

Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees
The calculation of Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees was a consequence of the passage of Proposition 1A in November of 2004. Revenue was calculated by taking the estimated percent change in assessed value that the Project would have on the City and applying that percent change on the revenue adopted in the FY 2020-21 provisional budget. Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees revenues are shown in Table A.3.

Sales and Use Tax
Taxable sales generated by the Project are calculated by examining the amount of taxable sales that will be generated by new residents of the project. The amount of sales and use tax generated by residents is determined through several steps. First, the estimated household income for residents is determined. Second, the proportion of new residents’ household income that will be spent on taxable goods and services is determined. Third, a taxable sales capture rate is assumed, as only a portion of the total amount of taxable goods and services generated by residents will occur in the City. Sales and Use Tax revenue is calculated at 1.00% of the estimated retail capture rate of sales within the City. Sales and Use Tax revenues are shown in Table A.4.

Multiplier Method
Revenue items not calculated in Table A.3 and A.4 are estimated to be generated on a per household or per person served basis at a rate calculated from the existing City budget. All revenues calculated using the multiplier method are shown in Table A.1.

Transient Occupancy Tax
Revenue from Transient Occupancy Tax is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Franchise Fees
Revenue from Franchise Fees is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Business Licenses
5 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Revenue from Business Licenses is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Expenditures Methodology and Assumptions
This section of the Report describes the methodology used to forecast the Project’s expenditures (costs) at buildout. Expenditures are projected using a per person served or per resident basis.

Expenditure estimates are based on the City’s FY 2020-21 adopted provisional budget. The calculations of the General Fund expenditures and the estimating procedures used to model future expenditures from the Project are shown in Table A.2.

Multiplier Method
Expenditure items were estimated on a per person served or per resident basis at a rate per capita consistent with the existing City budget. All expenditures calculated using the multiplier method are shown in Appendix A: Table 2.

VI. Conclusions
This section of the Report summarizes the Project’s annual fiscal impact at buildout on the City.

Table 2 provides a summary of the Project’s estimated revenues and expenditures projection.

Net Annual Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
The annual net fiscal impacts at buildout of the Project indicate an annual City General Fund surplus of $306,100 annually, or approximately $370 per residential unit.

VII. FIA Sources
Information used in preparing the FIA was obtained from the following sources: (1) City of Manteca FY 2020-21 adopted provisional budget, (2) Bureau of labor statistics, (3) California Department of Finance, (4) San Joaquin County Office of the Assessor (5) US Census Bureau, (6) City of Manteca Housing Element, (7) California EDD

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ATTACHMENT 16
Estimating Service Revenue
Procedure Population [1] Multiplier
City of Manteca
Estimated General Fund Revenues
Sales and Use Tax: General Case Study N/A ‐$             $                                                  69,100 Sales and Use Tax: Public Safety Case Study N/A ‐                                                                      1,600 Property Tax Secured Case Study N/A ‐                                                                  790,000 Property Tax Unsecured [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Property Tax: Vehicle License Fee (VLF) ‐ Property Tax Swap Case Study N/A ‐                                                                  331,300 Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served                   2,459 13.79                                                               33,900 Franchise Fees Persons Served                   2,459 18.82                                                               46,300 Documentary Stamp Tax Case Study N/A ‐                                                                    33,500 Excise Tax [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ License & Permits [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Business Licenses Persons Served                   2,459 6.83                                                                 16,800 Fines & Penalties [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Investment & Property Revenues [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Intergovernmental ‐ State/County [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Service Charges [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Police Services [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Fire Services [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Parks & Recreation [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Public Works [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ General Government [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Other Revenue [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Subtotal Estimated General Fund Revenues $                                            1,322,500 Estimated General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served                   2,459 7.87$           $                                                  19,400 Legal Services Persons Served                   2,459 1.66                                                                   4,100 City Administration Persons Served                   2,459 4.95                                                                 12,200 Public Works Administration Persons Served                   2,459 0.14                                                                       300 Non Departmental Persons Served                   2,459 25.64                                                             63,000 Human Resources Persons Served                  2,459 6.50                                                                 16,000 Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served                   2,459 3.01                                                                   7,400 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served                   2,459 2.37                                                                   5,800 Subtotal General Government                                                   128,200 Police Protection
Police Protection Persons Served                   2,459 191.26                                                           470,300 Animal Services Persons Served                   2,459 2.01                                                                   4,900 Fire Protection Persons Served                   2,459 90.28                                                             222,000 Subtotal Public Safety                                                   697,200 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Persons Served                   2,459 50.64                                                             124,500 Library Persons Served                   2,459 1.57                                                                   3,900 Recreational and Senior Services Persons Served                   2,459 11.54                                                               28,400 Subtotal Public Safety                                                   156,800 Subtotal Public Utilities
Storm Drainange Residents                   2,459 3.17                                                                   7,800 Subtotal Public Utilities                                                       7,800 Transportation
Street Residents                   2,459 1.33                                                                   3,300 Subtotal Transportation                                                       3,300 Subtotal Estimated General Fund Expenditures $                                                993,300 General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                329,200 General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) Per Unit $                                                  398.07 Special Revenue Fund Expenditures
Public Safety Endowment (Fund 330) Persons Served                   2,459 9.39$           $                                                  23,100 Subtotal Special Revenue Fund Expenditures                                                     23,100 General Fund & Special Revenue Fund Expenditures $                                            1,016,400 General Fund & Special Revenue Fund Expenditure Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                306,100 Total Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                  370.13 Footnotes
[1] Persons served is all City residents plus 50% of City employees. See Appendix A.5. [2] This revenue/expense source is not expected to be affected by the Project and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis.

Estimated Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Machado Property
Table 2
Annual Revenue/Expenditures at
Buildout (Rounded)
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ATTACHMENT 16
APPENDICES:

Appendix A: General Fund Revenues (Table A.1)
General Fund Expenditures (Table A.2)
Case Study Analyses (Table A.3)
Case Study Analyses (Table A.4)
General Assumptions (Table A.5)
Property Tax Allocation (Table A.6)
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.1
Machado PropertyFiscal Impact AnalysisFund Revenues
FY 2020‐21
Estimating Case Study Adopted Service Revenue
Procedure Reference Revenues Population [1] Multiplier
General Fund Revenues
Sales and Use Tax: General Case Study Table A.4 $          14,186,876 N/A ‐$ Sales and Use Tax: Public Safety [2] ‐ 340,315 N/A ‐
Property Tax Secured Case Study Table A.3 10,174,700 N/A ‐ Property Tax Unsecured [2] ‐ 425,645 N/A ‐           Property Tax: Vehicle License Fee (VLF) ‐ Property Tax Swap Case Study Table A.3 7,228,240 N/A ‐           Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served ‐ 2,605,384 94,450 27.58       Franchise Fees Persons Served ‐ 1,777,125 94,450 18.82 Documentary Stamp Tax Case Study Table A.3 678,590 N/A ‐ Excise Tax [2] ‐ 450,000 N/A ‐
License & Permits [2] ‐ 252,635 N/A ‐           Business Licenses Persons Served ‐ 645,000 94,450 6.83 Fines & Penalties [2] ‐ 248,430 N/A ‐
Investment & Property Revenues [2] ‐ 450,000 N/A ‐           Intergovernmental ‐ State/County [2] ‐ 353,805 N/A ‐ Service Charges [2] ‐ 93,400 N/A ‐           Police Services [2] ‐ 286,000 N/A ‐           Fire Services [2] ‐ 432,300 N/A ‐           Parks & Recreation [2] ‐ 81,000 N/A ‐           Public Works [2] ‐ ‐ N/A ‐ General Government [2] ‐ 6,518,585 N/A ‐
Other Revenue [2] ‐ 524,650 N/A ‐
Total General Fund Revenues $          47,752,680
Source: City of Manteca 2020‐2021 Provisional BudgetNotes:[1] See Table A.5.[2] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by the Project and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis. DRAFT 9 ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.2
Machado PropertyFiscal Impact AnalysisFund Expenditures Estimating Procedure
FY2020‐21 Budgeted
Expenditures
Less Offsetting
Revenue [1]
FY2020‐21 Net City
Expenditures
Service
Population (*)
Avg. Cost Per
Person Served
Adjustment
Factor [2]
Expenditure Per
Person
General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served $                1,487,165 $                            ‐ $                1,487,165 94,450 $              15.75 50% $                             7.87 Legal Services Persons Served 314,500 ‐ 314,500 94,450                    50% 1.66 3.33 City Administration Persons Served 1,410,532 (475,458) 935,074 94,450                    50% 4.95 9.90Public Works Administration Persons Served 1,581,598 (1,554,893) 26,705 94,450                    50% 0.14 0.28Non Departmental Persons Served 4,842,909 ‐ 4,842,909 94,450                 50% 25.64 51.27 Human Resources Persons Served 1,228,211 ‐ 1,228,211 94,450                 50% 6.50 13.00Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served 1,390,495 (822,631) 567,864 94,450                    50% 3.01 6.01 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served 447,275                       ‐                               447,275                       94,450                    50% 2.37 4.74Subtotal General Government 12,702,685 (2,852,982) 9,849,703 Public Safety
Police Protection Persons Served 18,951,447 (887,000) 18,064,447 94,450               100% 191.26 191.26 Animal Services Persons Served 442,069                       (252,635)                     189,434 94,450                    100% 2.01 2.01 Fire Protection Persons Served 8,959,680 (432,300) 8,527,380 94,450                 100% 90.28 90.28 Subtotal Public Safety 28,353,196 (1,571,935) 26,781,261 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Persons Served 5,225,937 (931,000) 4,294,937 84,800                 100% 50.65 50.65 Library Persons Served 133,160 ‐ 133,160 84,800                    100% 1.57 1.57 Recreational and Senior Services Persons Served 978,461                       ‐                               978,461                       84,800                 100% 11.54 11.54 Subtotal Public Safety 6,337,558 (931,000) 5,406,558
Public Utilities
Storm Drainange Residents 599,330 ‐ 599,330 94,450                    50% 3.17 6.35 Subtotal Public Utilities 599,330 ‐ 599,330
Transportation
Street Residents 125,170 ‐ 125,170 94,450                    100% 1.33 1.33 Subtotal Transportation 125,170 ‐ 125,170
Subtotal General Fund Expenditures $              48,117,939 $              42,762,022 $                        403.95 Special Revenue Fund Expenditures [3]
Public Safety Endowment (Fund 330) Persons Served 1,938,957 (1,052,000) 886,957 94,450                    100% 9.39 9.39 Subtotal Special Revenue Fund Expenditures $                1,938,957 $                   886,957 $                             9.39 Total General Fund & Public Special Revenue Fund Expenditure $              50,056,896 $              43,648,979 $                        413.34 Source: City of Manteca 2020‐2021 Provisional Budget.(*)  See Table A.5.Notes:[1][2][3] Offsetting revenues provided by the City for the fiscal impact analysis for the Trails of Manteca project.Per City direction, police and fire protection includes operating expenditures funded by endowment funds (Fund 330).Percentage of budget that is expected to grow proportionately with new development.

DRAFT
10 ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.3
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Case Study Analyses
Land Use Assumption and Estimated Valuation
Build Out Price Total
Lot Size Units/SF [1] Per Unit [2] Valuation
Residential
Motor Court 87                  427, $         37, 500 $                 192,500 45'x75' 122               480,           58, 000                    560,000 50'x80' 208               500,           104, 000                 000,000 45'x100' 67                  520,           34, 000                    840,000 50'x100' 191               537,           102, 500                 662,500 60'x100' 120               565,           67, 500                    860,000 100'x100' 32                  655,           20, 000                    960,000 Total Residential 827               515,206 $         426,075,000 $ Total Residential Valuation $              426,075,000
A. Estimated Annual Property Tax Case Study [3]
Basic Rate 1.00%
Total Residential Secured Property Tax 4,260,750 $
Percent Allocated to City 8.8461%
Annual Property Tax Allocated to City General Fund 376,900 $ Share of County Revenue
20‐21 Base Year AV $                      603,407
Basic Rate 1.00%
Total Residential Secured Property Tax $                          6,034 County Allocation 24.272%
20‐21 Base Year Revenue $                          1,465 Total Residential Secured Property Tax 4,260,750 $
County Allocation 24.272%
Total Revenue To Be Split Between City and County 1,034,200 $ Less 20‐21 Base Year Revenue to County (1,465) $
Net Revenue To Be Split With City  $                   1,032,735 City Share of Net Revenue 40%
City Share After Tax Allocation $                      413,094 Total Annual Property Tax to City $                      789,994 B. Estimated Document Transfer Tax Case Study
Turnover Rate
Residential Property [4] 14.30%
Residential Property Total Valuation $              426,075,000 Annual Estimated Assessed Turnover Valuation $                60,928,725 Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value ($.55) 0.055%
Total Estimated Document Transfer Tax $                        33,500 C. Estimated Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Case Study
FY 2020‐21 City of Manteca Assessed Valuation [5] $           9,295,356,393 Assessed Value of Project                426,075,000
Total Assessed Value $           9,721,431,393
Percent Change in Assessed Value 4.58%
Total FY 2020‐21 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Adopted Revenue [6]                     7,228,240 Estimated Increase in Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $                      331,300 Notes:
[2] Estimated home values provided by Developer.
[4] Assumes residential property turns over every seven years. [5]  Assessed Valuation for FY 2020‐21. Includes citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll. [6]  City of Manteca FY 2020‐2021 Provisional Budget.
[1] Provided by Developer.
[3] Property tax allocation is estimated based upon the Griffin Park Tax Sharing Agreement between the City of Manteca and San Joaquin County.  The agreement splits taxes 60% to the County and 40% to the City after the County gets the base year revenue is subtracted from the proceeds.
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.4
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Case Study Analyses
Average Income and Taxable Expenditures for Residential Units Residential Land Use Avg Home Value [1]
Motor Court $                   427,500 $                               29,958 $                                                 90,000 45'x75'                      480,000                                 33,638                                                 100,000 50'x80'                      500,000                                 35,039                                                 100,000 45'x100'                      520,000                                 36,441                                                 100,000 50'x100'                      537,500                                 37,667                                                 110,000 60'x100'                      565,500                                 39,629                                                 110,000 100'x100'                      655,000                                 45,901                                                 130,000 Average Taxable Expenditures [4]
Motor Court 25.0% $                                                 22,500 45'x75' 25.0%                                                    25,000 50'x80' 25.0% 25,000
45'x100' 25.0% 25,000
50'x100' 25.0% 27,500
60'x100' 23.0% 25,300
100'x100' 23.0% 29,900
Total Taxable Expenditures Occupied Units Taxable Expenditures Motor Court 81 $                                            1,822,500 45'x75' 114                                              2,850,000 50'x80' 194                                              4,850,000 45'x100' 63                                              1,575,000 50'x100' 179                                              4,922,500 60'x100' 112                                              2,833,600 100'x100' 30                                                 897,000 Total 773 $                                          19,750,600 Taxable Sales from New Households
Est. Taxable Capture Rate within City of Manteca [5] 35% Total Taxable Sales from New Households $                                            6,910,000 Estimated Sales Tax Revenue
Sales and Use Tax: General 1.00% $                                                 69,100 Sales and Use Tax: Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [6] 2.3426% $                                                    1,600 Notes:
[1] Estimated home values provided by Developer.
[2]  Based on a 4.75%, 30‐year fixed rate mortgage with a 20% down payment and 2% for annual taxes and insurance. [6] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020‐21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.
[5] Represents the portion of household retail expenditures estimated to take place in the City of Manteca.

Household Income and Taxable Expenditures
Average Taxable Expenditures
Taxable Exp. As % of
Income
Percentage of Annual
Taxable Sales
[4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Total Annual Mortgage,
Ins., & Tax Payments [2]
Estimated Household Income
(Rounded) [3]
[3] Assumes mortgage lending guidelines allow no more than 35% of income dedicated to mortgage payments, taxes, and insurance. 12 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.5
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
General Assumptions
General Assumptions Assumption
Base Fiscal Year [1] FY 2020‐21
Property Turnover Rate (% per year)
Residential [2] 14.30%
Units Total Persons
Motor Court 3.18                          87                                     277 45'x75'                         3.18 122                                   388 50'x80'                         3.18 208                                   661 45'x100'                         3.18 67                                     213 50'x100'                         3.18 191                                   607 60'x100'                         3.18 120                                   382 100'x100'                         3.18 32                                     102 Total Potential Residents  827                               2,630 Vacancy Rate 6.50%
Total Residents                2,459
General Demographic Characteristics
Total Citywide
City of Manteca Population [4]               84,800
City of Manteca Employees [5]               19,300
City of Manteca Persons Served (Population plus 50% of Employees)               94,450 Source: California Department of Finance
Notes:
[4] City Population per California Department of Finance E‐1 City/County Population Estimate as of 1‐1‐2020. [5] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 16,862 jobs in Manteca, CA in 2017.

California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2017 for the Stockton‐Lodi MSA.

Escalated 2017 employment figure to arrive at 2019 employment estimate, adjusted by an additional 10% to account for self‐employed workers, and rounded to the nearest hundred employees. [1]  City of Manteca 2019‐2020 Budget.  This analysis does not reflect changes in values resulting from inflation or appreciation.

Persons per
Dwelling Unit [3]
[2] Assumes residential property turns over every seven years. [3] Assumes 3.18 persons per household per California Department of Finance E‐5 City/County Population Estimate as of 1‐1‐2020.
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.6
Machado Property
Property Tax Allocation Assumptions (2020)
TRA: 102‐136 Pre Post
Property Tax Fund Annexation Annexation
CITY OF MANTECA [1] 0.0000% 8.846100%
COUNTY GENERAL 20.2936% 24.2720%
ROAD DISTRICT 3.9784% 0.0000%
COUNTY LIBRARY 1.6391% 1.6391%
MANTECA UNIFIED SCHOOLS 26.9372% 26.9372%
S.J. DELTA COMM COLLEGE 3.6467% 3.6467%
COUNTY OFFICE OF EDUCATION 1.3178% 1.3178%
LATHROP‐MANTECA RURAL FIRE 8.8461% 0.0000%
SJC FLOOD CONTROL 0.1599% 0.1599%
SJC MOSQUITO ABATEMENT 0.7179% 0.7179%
RECL.DISTR. #17 0.0000% 0.0000%
SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN IRRIGATION 5.4166% 5.4166%
ERAF ‐ EDUCATIONAL REVENUE AUGMENTATION FUN 27.0467% 27.0467% Subtotal 100.0000% 100.0000%
Source:  San Joaquin County Tax Increment Distribution Report 2020 Notes:
[1]  Assumes the City of Manteca and San Joaquin County will agree to a tax sharing agreement with a split of 40% to the City based upon the Griffin Park annexation.  The City would receive 40% of the County General and Road Disctrict proceeds and 100% of the Lathrop‐Manteca Rural Fire. 14 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
ATTACHMENT 2:

EPS Fiscal Impact Analysis
Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: Revenue-Estimating Tables
Appendix C: Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for Revenue and
Expenditure Estimates
ATTACHMENT 16
APPENDIX A:

General Assumptions
Table A-1 General Assumptions ..................................................... A-1 Table A-2 Land Use Projections ..................................................... A-2 Table A-3 Estimated Project Population ........................................... A-3 Table A-4 Land Use Assumptions ................................................... A-4 ATTACHMENT 16
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Table A-1
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
General Assumptions
Item Assumption
General Assumptions
Fiscal Year FY 2020-21
General Demographic Characteristics
City of Manteca
Population [1] 84,800
Employees [2] 21,000
City of Manteca Persons Served [3] 95,300
gen assumps
Source: California Department of Finance; EDD; U.S. Census LED; EPS. [3] Persons served is defined as total population plus half of total employees. Used to estimate specific revenues and expenditures that are assumed to be impacted by growth in resident and employment populations and to avoid double counting of employees who reside in the City.

City of
Manteca
[1] Based on population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) data for January 1, 2020.
[2] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 18,767 jobs in Manteca, CA in 2018.

California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2018 for the Stockton-Lodi MSA.

EPS adjusted the 2018 employment figure to arrive at a 2020 employment estimate using this growth rate and further increased the total by 10% to account for self-employed workers. Estimate is rounded to the nearest hundred employees.

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A-1 ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table A-2
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Total and Occupied Project Land Uses
Land Use Acres
Total
Dwelling
Units
Vacancy
Rate
Occupied
Dwelling
Units
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses
Motor Court 87 6.0% 82
45'x75' 122 6.0% 115
50'x80' 208 6.0% 196
45'x100' 67 6.0% 63
50'x100' 191 6.0% 180
60'x100' 120 6.0% 113
100'x100 32 6.0% 30
Subtotal Residential 157 827 779
Total All Land Uses 157 827 779
lu
Source: Signature Homes; EPS.

Project Land Uses
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Table A-3
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Persons Served
Assumption
Land Use [1]
Project Residents
Residential Land Uses PPH
Single Family Residential 3.18 2,477
Subtotal Residential Land Uses 2,477
Total Resident Population 2,477
Project Persons Served 2,477
pop
Source: California Department of Finance; EPS.

Estimated
Population
[1] For persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, refer to Table A-4.

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Table A-4
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Land Use Assumptions
Persons per
Estimated Property Household/
Assessed Turnover Vacancy Sq. Ft. per
Land Use Value [1] Rate [2] Rate [3] Employee [4]
Residential Land Uses
Single-Family Residential per Unit
Motor Court $427,500 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
45'x75' $480,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
50'x80' $500,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
45'x100' $520,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
50'x100' $537,500 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
60'x100' $565,500 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
100'x100 $655,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
lu assum
Source: Signature Homes; US Census; California Department of Finance; EPS. [1] Assessed value based on the rounded estimated average market value per unit as provided by the Project Applicant. [2] Owner-occupied residential assumed to turn over once every 7 years and renter-occupied residential is assumed to turn over once every 15 years.

Nonresidential uses are assumed to turn over once every 20 years.

City of
Manteca
[3] Residential vacancy rates obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2019 estimates, for the City of Manteca [4] Persons per household figures obtained from the California Department of Finance Table E-5, current as of 01-01-2021.

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APPENDIX B:

Revenue-Estimating Tables
Table B-1 Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Manteca FY 2019-20 Budget ................................. B-1 Table B-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues ........................ B-2 Table B-3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues ......................... B-3 Table B-4 Real Property Transfer Tax ............................................. B-4 Table B-5 Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue ....... B-5 Table B-5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method .............................. B-6 ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table B-1
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Budgeted Budgeted
Estimating Case Study General Fund Offsetting Net General Service Revenue Item Procedure Reference Revenues [1] Revenues Fund Revenues Population [2] Multiplier General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes Case Study Table B-3 $10,600,345 - $10,600,345 NA - Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees Case Study Table B-3 $7,228,240 - $7,228,240 NA - Real Property Transfer Tax Case Study Table B-4 $678,590 - $678,590 NA - Sales and Use Taxes Case Study Table B-5 $11,770,857 - $11,770,857 NA - Public Safety Sales and Use Tax Case Study Table B-5 $340,315 - $340,315 NA - Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served - $1,062,469 - $1,062,469 95,300 $11.15 Licenses and Permits Persons Served - $252,635 ($252,635) - 95,300 - Business Licenses Persons Served - $667,000 - $667,000 95,300 $7.00 Franchise Fees Persons Served - $1,777,125 - $1,777,125 95,300 $18.65 Excise Tax [3] - $450,000 - $450,000 NA -
Intergovernmental [3] - $1,746,492 ($295,000) $1,451,492 NA - Charges for Services [3] - $8,699,849 ($4,940,845) $3,759,004 NA - Fines and Forfeitures Persons Served - $304,980 ($304,980) $0 95,300 - Use of Money & Property [3] - $920,000 - $920,000 NA -
All Other Revenue [3] - $57,650 - $57,650 NA -
Total General Fund Revenues $46,556,547 ($5,793,460) $40,763,087 Fund Reserves $8,315,434
Total General Fund Revenues (Incl. Reserves) $54,871,981 rev pro
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Final Budget including Midyear Budget Amendments (Current as of March 10, 2021); EPS. [1] Includes midyear budget amendments as provided by City staff, current as of March 10, 2021. [2] Refer to Table A-1 for details.
[3] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by anticipated development and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis.

City of
Manteca
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Table B-2
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues (2020$)
Case Study
Revenue Category Reference
General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes Table B-3 $564,400
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees Table B-3 $331,300 Real Property Transfer Tax Table B-4 $33,500
Sales and Use Taxes Table B-5 $144,500
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax Table B-5 $4,200
Transient Occupancy Tax - $27,600
Licenses and Permits - -
Business Licenses - $17,300
Franchise Fees - $46,200
Fines and Forfeitures - -
Total General Fund Revenue $1,169,000
rev
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Adopted Budget; EPS.

Estimated
Annual Revenue
(Rounded)
Base Tax Share Scenario
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Table B-3
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula
Assessed Value of Project Table D-2 a $426,075,000
Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000% b = a * 1.00% $4,260,750 Estimated Property Tax Allocation [1]
City of Manteca General Fund 13.2472% c = b * 13.25% $564,431 Other Agencies/ERAF 86.7528% d = b * 86.75% $3,696,319
Total City of Manteca General Fund Property Tax e = c $564,431 Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [2] l $9,295,356,393
Total Assessed Value of Project m $426,075,000
Total Assessed Value n = l + m $9,721,431,393
Percent Change in AV o = m / l 4.58%
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [3] $7,228,240 p = o * $7,228,240 $331,324 prop tax
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [2] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes Citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll.
[3] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for details.
[1] Refer to Table D-1 for details.

Estimated
Property Tax
Revenues
Base Tax Share
Scenario
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Table B-4
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Real Property Transfer Tax (2020$)
Assumption/
Description Source
Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55
Project Assessed Value Table D-2
Single Family Residential $426,075,000
Total Assessed Value $426,075,000
Turnover Rate
Single Family Residential 14.30%
Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Single Family Residential $33,511
Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenue $33,511
transfer
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.

Estimated Annual
Property Transfer Tax
Revenue
[1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1,000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.

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Table B-5
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$) Item Formula
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents) a $14,445,000 Annual Taxable Sales from New Development b = a $14,445,000 Annual Sales Tax Revenue
Bradley Burns Local Sales Tax Revenue c = b * 1.0000% 1.0000% $144,450 City of Manteca Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [1] d = c * 2.8912% 2.8912% $4,176 sales
Source: City of Manteca; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.

Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales
Tax Revenue
[1] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020-21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.

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DRAFT
Table B-5A
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$) Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption
Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents
Residential Development Table A-2 Occupied Dwelling Units Motor Court 82
45'x75' 115
50'x80' 196
45'x100' 63
50'x100' 180
60'x100' 113
100'x100 30
Total Residential Development 779
Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1] Taxable Retail Expenditures Motor Court $24,000 $1,968,000
45'x75' $23,000 $2,645,000
50'x80' $23,000 $4,508,000
45'x100' $25,000 $1,575,000
50'x100' $25,000 $4,500,000
60'x100' $28,000 $3,164,000
100'x100 $30,000 $900,000
Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $19,260,000
Estimated Citywide Capture from New Households [2] 75% $14,445,000 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $14,445,000 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; City of Manteca; EPS. [1] For details pertaining to resident and employee estimates, refer to Table A-3.

Estimated Annual
Taxable Sales
[2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place within the City of Manteca.

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APPENDIX C:

Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Table C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Manteca FY 2019-20 Budget ................................. C-1 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures .................... C-2 ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table C-1
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net City or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment Net FY 2019-20 Item Procedure Expenditures [1] Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cost Factor [2] Avg. Cost General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served $1,569,362 - $1,569,362 95,300 $16.47 50% $8.23 Legal Services Persons Served $920,326 - $920,326 95,300 $9.66 50% $4.83 City Administration Persons Served $1,276,411 ($475,458) $800,953 95,300 $8.40 50% $4.20 Public Works Administration Persons Served $1,709,398 ($1,554,893) $154,505 95,300 $1.62 50% $0.81 Non Departmental Persons Served $9,181,518 - $9,181,518 95,300 $96.34 50% $48.17 Human Resources Persons Served $1,644,221 - $1,644,221 95,300 $17.25 50% $8.63 Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served $1,713,751 ($822,631) $891,120 95,300 $9.35 50% $4.68 Economic and Community Development Persons Served $365,978 - $365,978 95,300 $3.84 50% $1.92 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served $450,675 - $450,675 95,300 $4.73 50% $2.36 Subtotal General Government $18,831,640 ($2,852,981) $15,978,659 Public Safety
Police Protection [3] Persons Served $19,436,258 ($840,780) $18,595,478 95,300 $195.13 100% $195.13 Animal Services Persons Served $450,319 ($252,635) $197,684 95,300 $2.07 100% $2.07 Fire Protection [3] [4] Persons Served $10,890,170 ($1,792,064) $9,098,106 95,300 $95.47 100% $95.47 Subtotal Public Safety $30,776,747 ($2,885,479) $27,891,268 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Per Capita $2,988,546 ($55,000) $2,933,546 84,800 $34.59 100% $34.59 Library Per Capita $133,160 - $133,160 84,800 $1.57 100% $1.57 Recreational and Senior Services Per Capita $996,298 - $996,298 84,800 $11.75 100% $11.75 Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $4,118,004 ($55,000) $4,063,004 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage Persons Served $671,420 - $671,420 95,300 $7.05 50% $3.52 Subtotal Public Utilities $671,420 - $671,420
Transportation
Streets Persons Served $474,170 - $474,170 95,300 $4.98 100% $4.98 Subtotal Transportation $474,170 - $474,170
Total General Fund Expenditures $54,871,981 ($5,793,460) $49,078,521 exp
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Final Budget including Midyear Budget Amendments (Current as of March 10, 2021); EPS. [1] Includes midyear budget amendments as provided by City staff, current as of March 10, 2021. [2] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department expenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment at this time. [3] Police and Fire protection expenditures included reflect only City General Fund Police expenditures and excludes any Measure M funded expenditures (Fund 320) for one-time capital expenditures included in the public safety endowment fund (Fund 330).

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Table C-2
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)
Expenditure Category
General Fund
General Government
Legislation and Policy $20,397
Legal Services $11,961
City Administration $10,410
Public Works Administration $2,008
Non Departmental $119,332
Human Resources $21,370
Fiscal and Revenue Management $11,582
Economic and Community Development $4,757
Fleet Maintenance $5,857
Subtotal General Government $207,674
Public Safety
Police Protection $483,369
Animal Services $5,139
Fire Protection [2] $236,495
Subtotal Public Safety $725,003
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $85,696
Library $3,890
Recreational and Senior Services $29,104
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $118,691 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $8,726
Subtotal Public Utilities $8,726
Transportation
Streets $12,326
Subtotal Transportation $12,326
Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $1,072,420
exp
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Adopted Budget; EPS.

Estimated Annual
Expenditures [1]
[1] Annual expenditure estimated on a per persons served or per capita basis.

Refer to Table C-1 for estimating procedure and Table A-4 for population estimates.

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APPENDIX D:

Supporting Tables for Revenue and
Expenditure Estimates
Table D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocation .................................. D-1 Table D-2 Cumulative Assessed Valuation ....................................... D-2 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annual Household Income ................... D-3 ATTACHMENT 16
DRAFT
Table D-1
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Areas Tax Code Entity TRA 102-136 TRA 102-136
Formula a b c d = c * $25,979 f = e / $78,444
Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 20.2936% $15,919 60% $15,587 19.87082% 10527 Road District 5 3.9784% $3,121 - $0 0.00000%
14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire 8.8461% $6,939 - $0 0.00000% 40200 City of Manteca 0.0000% - 40% $10,392 13.24722%
Subtotal 33.1181% $25,979 100% $25,979 33.11804%
Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.6391% $1,286 - $1,286 1.63912%
12601 Manteca Unified Schools 26.9372% $21,131 - $21,131 26.93719% 13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 3.6467% $2,861 - $2,861 3.64674% 13201 County Office Of Education 1.3178% $1,034 - $1,034 1.31781% 16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.1599% $125 - $125 0.15991%
21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.7179% $563 - $563 0.71788% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 5.4166% $4,249 - $4,249 5.41665% 41100 ERAF 27.0467% $21,216 - $21,216 27.04667%
Subtotal 66.8819% $52,465 0% $52,465 66.88196%
Total 100.00000% $78,444 100% $78,444 100.00000%
TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller.

Base Tax Share Scenario
[2] Based on the recent tax-sharing agreement between San Joaquin County and the City of Manteca related to the Griffin Park Annexation.

Post-ERAF
Distribution
Gross
Revenue
(FY 2020-21)
[1]
Property Tax
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Existing Tax
Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF
Distribution [1] Base
Revenue
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Table D-2
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Project Assessed Valuation (2020$)
Item
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Motor Court $427,500 $37,192,500
45'x75' $480,000 $58,560,000
50'x80' $500,000 $104,000,000
45'x100' $520,000 $34,840,000
50'x100' $537,500 $102,662,500
60'x100' $565,500 $67,860,000
100'x100 $655,000 $20,960,000
Subtotal Residential $426,075,000
Total All Land Uses $426,075,000
av
Source: Signature Homes; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-4 for details.

Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
Total Assessed
Value (2020$)
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Table D-3
Lumina at Machado
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$)
Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percentage per Household
Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] of Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Motor Court $427,500 $30,581 $90,000 26% $24,000
45'x75' $480,000 $34,337 $100,000 23% $23,000
50'x80' $500,000 $35,767 $100,000 23% $23,000
45'x100' $520,000 $37,198 $110,000 23% $25,000
50'x100' $537,500 $38,450 $110,000 23% $25,000
60'x100' $565,500 $40,453 $120,000 23% $28,000
100'x100 $655,000 $46,855 $130,000 23% $30,000
income
Source: Signature Homes; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS. [1] See Table A-4 for detail on estimated values for residential units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowner's association dues and 2% [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded City of
Manteca
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FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

THE MACHADO PROPERTY
Prepared By:
4380 AUBURN BOULEVARD
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA 95841
DRAFT
November 16, 2020
ATTACHMENT 16
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Project Overview ................................................................................................................................. 1 Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary ...................................................................................................... 1 II. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of Report ............................................................................................................................... 1 Organization of Report ....................................................................................................................... 2 III. Project Description .............................................................................................................................. 2 Location, Land Uses, and Assumptions ........................................................................................... 2 IV. Methodology and Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 2 Scope and Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 2 General and/or Major Assumptions ................................................................................................. 3 V. Fiscal Impact Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 4 Revenues ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Case Study Method .................................................................................................................. 4 Multiplier Method .................................................................................................................... 5 Expenditures ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Multiplier Method .................................................................................................................... 6 VI. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Annual Net Fiscal Impacts at Buildout ................................................................................. 6 VII. FIA Sources ........................................................................................................................................ 6

DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16

I. Executive Summary
Introduction
This report was prepared by Development Planning and Financing Group, Inc. (“DPFG”) on behalf of Signature Homes (“Developer”) in order to analyze the fiscal impacts of The Machado Property (“Project”), located in San Joaquin County (“County”) and in the process of annexing into the City of Manteca (“City”). This Fiscal Impact Analysis (“FIA”) is intended to estimate the demand that the Project will place on City services and provide an estimate of the revenues that will be generated by the Project to offset the increased demand on services. This report evaluates the build-out of the Project plan area.

Project Overview
The Project consists of approximately 157 acres, planned for land uses totaling 827 residential units. The Project also includes approximately 9.6 acres of parks and drainage basins. The Project site is bounded by E. Woodward Road (north), S. Airport Way (east).

The Project is estimated to generate approximately 2,459 residents.

Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary
The FIA indicates that the Project, at buildout, is estimated to generate a fiscal surplus to the City’s General Fund.

The Project is estimated to generate a total of approximately $1.322 million in revenue for the City General Fund at buildout, against $1.016 million in expenditures (i.e., costs) at buildout, resulting in a combined surplus of $306,100 annually, or approximately $370 per residential unit.

The reader should be aware that any FIA is only as accurate as the assumptions and methodologies used to calculate its results, and actual results will vary from these estimates as events and circumstances occur in a manner different than described in the FIA.

II. Introduction
Purpose of Report
Development Planning and Financing Group, Inc. was retained to prepare this report on behalf of the Developer for The Machado Property. This report and the attached tables describe the methodology, assumptions, and results of the FIA. The Project is located in San Joaquin County and will annex into the City of Manteca.

The purpose of this report is to determine the applicable recurring revenue and expenditure impacts to the City General Fund and quantify the annual net fiscal impacts at buildout of the Project. 1 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Organization of Report
The report describes the Project, methodology, and assumptions applied in the Project FIA, a description of the FIA components for calculating revenues and expenditures, and conclusions of the analysis of the Project at buildout.

III. Project Description
Location, Land Uses, and Assumptions
The Project consists of approximately 157 acres located within San Joaquin County, to be annexed into the City of Manteca. The Project site is bounded by E. Woodward Road (north), S. Airport Way (east).

Residential Development: The anticipated residential yield from the Project area is an additional 827 residential units of varying densities based on information provided by the Developer. The FIA includes an estimated price range for residential units between $427,500 and $655,000.

IV. Methodology and Assumptions
Scope and Methodology
The methodology used to determine the recurring revenue and expenditure impacts to the City as a result of the Project was determined by applying two methodologies, the multiplier method and the case study method.

The multiplier method employs per capita factors based on the City’s fiscal year 2020-2021 provisional budget and number of residents or persons served within the City. The multiplier method uses the current fiscal year budget or projected budget as a baseline to forecast fiscal impacts. Revenue and expenditure funds that are impacted by residents use the City’s total population in determining the fund’s per capita factor. Revenue and expenditure funds that are Product Units/SF
Motor Court                       87 $                      427,500 $                           37,192,500 45'x75'                     122                          480,000                              58,560,000 50'x80'                     208                          500,000                            104,000,000 45'x100'                       67                          520,000                              34,840,000 50'x100'                     191                          537,500                            102,662,500 60'x100'                     120                          565,500                              67,860,000 100'x100'                       32                          655,000                              20,960,000 Total Residential Land Uses                     827 $                      515,206 $                        426,075,000 Total Land Uses $                        426,075,000
Source:

Product mix and pricing per Developer.

Estimated Market
Value Per Unit/SF Total Assessed Valuation
Table 1
Machado Property
Land Use Summary
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ATTACHMENT 16
impacted by residents use the City’s total persons served in determining the fund’s per capita factor.

The case study method is used to estimate recurring revenue and expenditures when use of the multiplier method will not accurately quantify fiscal impacts. Case study methods are used where estimated revenues are more accurately estimated as a function of tax rates, and/or estimated home prices.

General and/or Major Assumptions
An overview of the general assumptions utilized in the FIA is summarized in Figure 1 below. A more detailed summary of the assumptions used in the FIA can be found in Appendix A.

Anticipated Project Build-Out
Single Family Residential
Motor Court 87 Units
45'x75' 122 Units
50'x80' 208 Units
45'x100' 67 Units
50'x100' 191 Units
60'x100' 120 Units
100'x100' 32 Units
Total Project Residential 827 Units
Initial Market Values
Single Family Residential
Motor Court $ 427,500
45'x75' $ 480,000
50'x80' $ 500,000
45'x100' $ 520,000
50'x100' $ 537,500
60'x100' $ 565,500
100'x100' $ 655,000
Figure 1
Development Data
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Buildout Focus
The fiscal impacts of the Project were analyzed based on the estimated revenues and expenditures of the Project at buildout.

V. Fiscal Impact Analysis
Revenue Methodology and Assumptions
This section of the Report describes the methodology used to forecast the Project’s revenues at buildout. The calculations of estimated revenues used either a case-study methodology or a multiplier method (i.e., per capita or per persons served).

The case-study approach was used to estimate Sales and Use Tax, Property Taxes, Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees, and Documentary Stamp Tax Revenues (see Table A.3, A.4).

The multiplier method was used to estimate Property Tax Unsecured, Franchise Fees, and Fines and Penalties (see Table A.1).

Case Study Method
Property Taxes
At buildout, the Project is estimated to have an assessed value of approximately $426.075 million dollars. Table A.6 shows the estimated allocation of tax revenue to each district, fund, and agency after funds have been diverted to the Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (“ERAF”).

Following ERAF allocation, The City will receive 8.8461% of the total 1% property tax revenue.

Additionally because the Project will be annexing into the City a tax sharing agreement between the City and County will need to be negotiated to determine the share of current County property Property Tax Rate (Post ERAF)
City General Fund Share of 1% Tax Rate 8.8461%
City General Fund Share of County 1% Tax Rate x 40% (Net of base revenue) 24.2720% Annual Turnover Rate
Residential 14.30%
City of Manteca Population 84,800
City of Manteca Employees 19,300
City of Manteca Persons Served (Population plus 50% of Employees) 94,450 Persons Per Household
Single Family Residential 3.18
Fiscal Modeling
Population Data
Figure 1 (Continued)
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tax revenues that will go to the City upon annexation. In 2018, the City and County agreed on a tax sharing allocation for the Griffin Park project. That agreements share of property tax revenues was determined to be a 40% share to the City after the base year revenues were allocated to the County. DPFG applied the same methodology to estimate the property tax revenues derived from the Project in this analysis. Annual property tax revenues are summarized in Table A.3.

Documentary Stamp Tax
The City receives this tax at the time in which a new or existing property is sold and ownership is transferred. Documentary stamp tax is collected upon the sale of property at a rate of $1.10 per $1,000 of assessed valuation of which the City receives $0.55 per $1,000 of assessed valuation.

The FIA calculates the documentary stamp tax by using an annual turnover rate of 14.30% (every 7 years) for single family residential units. Annual documentary stamp tax revenues are shown in Table A.3.

Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees
The calculation of Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees was a consequence of the passage of Proposition 1A in November of 2004. Revenue was calculated by taking the estimated percent change in assessed value that the Project would have on the City and applying that percent change on the revenue adopted in the FY 2020-21 provisional budget. Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees revenues are shown in Table A.3.

Sales and Use Tax
Taxable sales generated by the Project are calculated by examining the amount of taxable sales that will be generated by new residents of the project. The amount of sales and use tax generated by residents is determined through several steps. First, the estimated household income for residents is determined. Second, the proportion of new residents’ household income that will be spent on taxable goods and services is determined. Third, a taxable sales capture rate is assumed, as only a portion of the total amount of taxable goods and services generated by residents will occur in the City. Sales and Use Tax revenue is calculated at 1.00% of the estimated retail capture rate of sales within the City. Sales and Use Tax revenues are shown in Table A.4.

Multiplier Method
Revenue items not calculated in Table A.3 and A.4 are estimated to be generated on a per household or per person served basis at a rate calculated from the existing City budget. All revenues calculated using the multiplier method are shown in Table A.1.

Transient Occupancy Tax
Revenue from Transient Occupancy Tax is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Franchise Fees
Revenue from Franchise Fees is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Business Licenses
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Revenue from Business Licenses is calculated on a per person served basis. See attached Table A.1 for further detail.

Expenditures Methodology and Assumptions
This section of the Report describes the methodology used to forecast the Project’s expenditures (costs) at buildout. Expenditures are projected using a per person served or per resident basis.

Expenditure estimates are based on the City’s FY 2020-21 adopted provisional budget. The calculations of the General Fund expenditures and the estimating procedures used to model future expenditures from the Project are shown in Table A.2.

Multiplier Method
Expenditure items were estimated on a per person served or per resident basis at a rate per capita consistent with the existing City budget. All expenditures calculated using the multiplier method are shown in Appendix A: Table 2.

VI. Conclusions
This section of the Report summarizes the Project’s annual fiscal impact at buildout on the City.

Table 2 provides a summary of the Project’s estimated revenues and expenditures projection.

Net Annual Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
The annual net fiscal impacts at buildout of the Project indicate an annual City General Fund surplus of $306,100 annually, or approximately $370 per residential unit.

VII. FIA Sources
Information used in preparing the FIA was obtained from the following sources: (1) City of Manteca FY 2020-21 adopted provisional budget, (2) Bureau of labor statistics, (3) California Department of Finance, (4) San Joaquin County Office of the Assessor (5) US Census Bureau, (6) City of Manteca Housing Element, (7) California EDD

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ATTACHMENT 16
Estimating Service Revenue
Procedure Population [1] Multiplier
City of Manteca
Estimated General Fund Revenues
Sales and Use Tax: General Case Study N/A ‐$             $                                                  69,100 Sales and Use Tax: Public Safety Case Study N/A ‐                                                                      1,600 Property Tax Secured Case Study N/A ‐                                                                  790,000 Property Tax Unsecured [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Property Tax: Vehicle License Fee (VLF) ‐ Property Tax Swap Case Study N/A ‐                                                                  331,300 Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served                   2,459 13.79                                                               33,900 Franchise Fees Persons Served                   2,459 18.82                                                               46,300 Documentary Stamp Tax Case Study N/A ‐                                                                    33,500 Excise Tax [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ License & Permits [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Business Licenses Persons Served                   2,459 6.83                                                                 16,800 Fines & Penalties [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Investment & Property Revenues [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Intergovernmental ‐ State/County [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Service Charges [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Police Services [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Fire Services [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Parks & Recreation [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Public Works [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ General Government [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Other Revenue [2] N/A ‐                                                                          ‐ Subtotal Estimated General Fund Revenues $                                            1,322,500 Estimated General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served                   2,459 7.87$           $                                                  19,400 Legal Services Persons Served                   2,459 1.66                                                                   4,100 City Administration Persons Served                   2,459 4.95                                                                 12,200 Public Works Administration Persons Served                   2,459 0.14                                                                       300 Non Departmental Persons Served                   2,459 25.64                                                             63,000 Human Resources Persons Served                  2,459 6.50                                                                 16,000 Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served                   2,459 3.01                                                                   7,400 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served                   2,459 2.37                                                                   5,800 Subtotal General Government                                                   128,200 Police Protection
Police Protection Persons Served                   2,459 191.26                                                           470,300 Animal Services Persons Served                   2,459 2.01                                                                   4,900 Fire Protection Persons Served                   2,459 90.28                                                             222,000 Subtotal Public Safety                                                   697,200 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Persons Served                   2,459 50.64                                                             124,500 Library Persons Served                   2,459 1.57                                                                   3,900 Recreational and Senior Services Persons Served                   2,459 11.54                                                               28,400 Subtotal Public Safety                                                   156,800 Subtotal Public Utilities
Storm Drainange Residents                   2,459 3.17                                                                   7,800 Subtotal Public Utilities                                                       7,800 Transportation
Street Residents                   2,459 1.33                                                                   3,300 Subtotal Transportation                                                       3,300 Subtotal Estimated General Fund Expenditures $                                                993,300 General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                329,200 General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) Per Unit $                                                  398.07 Special Revenue Fund Expenditures
Public Safety Endowment (Fund 330) Persons Served                   2,459 9.39$           $                                                  23,100 Subtotal Special Revenue Fund Expenditures                                                     23,100 General Fund & Special Revenue Fund Expenditures $                                            1,016,400 General Fund & Special Revenue Fund Expenditure Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                306,100 Total Surplus/(Deficit) $                                                  370.13 Footnotes
[1] Persons served is all City residents plus 50% of City employees. See Appendix A.5. [2] This revenue/expense source is not expected to be affected by the Project and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis.

Estimated Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Machado Property
Table 2
Annual Revenue/Expenditures at
Buildout (Rounded)
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ATTACHMENT 16
APPENDICES:

Appendix A: General Fund Revenues (Table A.1)
General Fund Expenditures (Table A.2)
Case Study Analyses (Table A.3)
Case Study Analyses (Table A.4)
General Assumptions (Table A.5)
Property Tax Allocation (Table A.6)
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.1
Machado PropertyFiscal Impact AnalysisFund Revenues
FY 2020‐21
Estimating Case Study Adopted Service Revenue
Procedure Reference Revenues Population [1] Multiplier
General Fund Revenues
Sales and Use Tax: General Case Study Table A.4 $          14,186,876 N/A ‐$ Sales and Use Tax: Public Safety [2] ‐ 340,315 N/A ‐
Property Tax Secured Case Study Table A.3 10,174,700 N/A ‐ Property Tax Unsecured [2] ‐ 425,645 N/A ‐           Property Tax: Vehicle License Fee (VLF) ‐ Property Tax Swap Case Study Table A.3 7,228,240 N/A ‐           Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served ‐ 2,605,384 94,450 27.58       Franchise Fees Persons Served ‐ 1,777,125 94,450 18.82 Documentary Stamp Tax Case Study Table A.3 678,590 N/A ‐ Excise Tax [2] ‐ 450,000 N/A ‐
License & Permits [2] ‐ 252,635 N/A ‐           Business Licenses Persons Served ‐ 645,000 94,450 6.83 Fines & Penalties [2] ‐ 248,430 N/A ‐
Investment & Property Revenues [2] ‐ 450,000 N/A ‐           Intergovernmental ‐ State/County [2] ‐ 353,805 N/A ‐ Service Charges [2] ‐ 93,400 N/A ‐           Police Services [2] ‐ 286,000 N/A ‐           Fire Services [2] ‐ 432,300 N/A ‐           Parks & Recreation [2] ‐ 81,000 N/A ‐           Public Works [2] ‐ ‐ N/A ‐ General Government [2] ‐ 6,518,585 N/A ‐
Other Revenue [2] ‐ 524,650 N/A ‐
Total General Fund Revenues $          47,752,680
Source: City of Manteca 2020‐2021 Provisional BudgetNotes:[1] See Table A.5.[2] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by the Project and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis. DRAFT 9 ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.2
Machado PropertyFiscal Impact AnalysisFund Expenditures Estimating Procedure
FY2020‐21 Budgeted
Expenditures
Less Offsetting
Revenue [1]
FY2020‐21 Net City
Expenditures
Service
Population (*)
Avg. Cost Per
Person Served
Adjustment
Factor [2]
Expenditure Per
Person
General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served $                1,487,165 $                            ‐ $                1,487,165 94,450 $              15.75 50% $                             7.87 Legal Services Persons Served 314,500 ‐ 314,500 94,450                    50% 1.66 3.33 City Administration Persons Served 1,410,532 (475,458) 935,074 94,450                    50% 4.95 9.90Public Works Administration Persons Served 1,581,598 (1,554,893) 26,705 94,450                    50% 0.14 0.28Non Departmental Persons Served 4,842,909 ‐ 4,842,909 94,450                 50% 25.64 51.27 Human Resources Persons Served 1,228,211 ‐ 1,228,211 94,450                 50% 6.50 13.00Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served 1,390,495 (822,631) 567,864 94,450                    50% 3.01 6.01 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served 447,275                       ‐                               447,275                       94,450                    50% 2.37 4.74Subtotal General Government 12,702,685 (2,852,982) 9,849,703 Public Safety
Police Protection Persons Served 18,951,447 (887,000) 18,064,447 94,450               100% 191.26 191.26 Animal Services Persons Served 442,069                       (252,635)                     189,434 94,450                    100% 2.01 2.01 Fire Protection Persons Served 8,959,680 (432,300) 8,527,380 94,450                 100% 90.28 90.28 Subtotal Public Safety 28,353,196 (1,571,935) 26,781,261 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Persons Served 5,225,937 (931,000) 4,294,937 84,800                 100% 50.65 50.65 Library Persons Served 133,160 ‐ 133,160 84,800                    100% 1.57 1.57 Recreational and Senior Services Persons Served 978,461                       ‐                               978,461                       84,800                 100% 11.54 11.54 Subtotal Public Safety 6,337,558 (931,000) 5,406,558
Public Utilities
Storm Drainange Residents 599,330 ‐ 599,330 94,450                    50% 3.17 6.35 Subtotal Public Utilities 599,330 ‐ 599,330
Transportation
Street Residents 125,170 ‐ 125,170 94,450                    100% 1.33 1.33 Subtotal Transportation 125,170 ‐ 125,170
Subtotal General Fund Expenditures $              48,117,939 $              42,762,022 $                        403.95 Special Revenue Fund Expenditures [3]
Public Safety Endowment (Fund 330) Persons Served 1,938,957 (1,052,000) 886,957 94,450                    100% 9.39 9.39 Subtotal Special Revenue Fund Expenditures $                1,938,957 $                   886,957 $                             9.39 Total General Fund & Public Special Revenue Fund Expenditure $              50,056,896 $              43,648,979 $                        413.34 Source: City of Manteca 2020‐2021 Provisional Budget.(*)  See Table A.5.Notes:[1][2][3] Offsetting revenues provided by the City for the fiscal impact analysis for the Trails of Manteca project.Per City direction, police and fire protection includes operating expenditures funded by endowment funds (Fund 330).Percentage of budget that is expected to grow proportionately with new development.

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10 ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.3
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Case Study Analyses
Land Use Assumption and Estimated Valuation
Build Out Price Total
Lot Size Units/SF [1] Per Unit [2] Valuation
Residential
Motor Court 87                  427, $         37, 500 $                 192,500 45'x75' 122               480,           58, 000                    560,000 50'x80' 208               500,           104, 000                 000,000 45'x100' 67                  520,           34, 000                    840,000 50'x100' 191               537,           102, 500                 662,500 60'x100' 120               565,           67, 500                    860,000 100'x100' 32                  655,           20, 000                    960,000 Total Residential 827               515,206 $         426,075,000 $ Total Residential Valuation $              426,075,000
A. Estimated Annual Property Tax Case Study [3]
Basic Rate 1.00%
Total Residential Secured Property Tax 4,260,750 $
Percent Allocated to City 8.8461%
Annual Property Tax Allocated to City General Fund 376,900 $ Share of County Revenue
20‐21 Base Year AV $                      603,407
Basic Rate 1.00%
Total Residential Secured Property Tax $                          6,034 County Allocation 24.272%
20‐21 Base Year Revenue $                          1,465 Total Residential Secured Property Tax 4,260,750 $
County Allocation 24.272%
Total Revenue To Be Split Between City and County 1,034,200 $ Less 20‐21 Base Year Revenue to County (1,465) $
Net Revenue To Be Split With City  $                   1,032,735 City Share of Net Revenue 40%
City Share After Tax Allocation $                      413,094 Total Annual Property Tax to City $                      789,994 B. Estimated Document Transfer Tax Case Study
Turnover Rate
Residential Property [4] 14.30%
Residential Property Total Valuation $              426,075,000 Annual Estimated Assessed Turnover Valuation $                60,928,725 Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value ($.55) 0.055%
Total Estimated Document Transfer Tax $                        33,500 C. Estimated Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Case Study
FY 2020‐21 City of Manteca Assessed Valuation [5] $           9,295,356,393 Assessed Value of Project                426,075,000
Total Assessed Value $           9,721,431,393
Percent Change in Assessed Value 4.58%
Total FY 2020‐21 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Adopted Revenue [6]                     7,228,240 Estimated Increase in Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $                      331,300 Notes:
[2] Estimated home values provided by Developer.
[4] Assumes residential property turns over every seven years. [5]  Assessed Valuation for FY 2020‐21. Includes citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll. [6]  City of Manteca FY 2020‐2021 Provisional Budget.
[1] Provided by Developer.
[3] Property tax allocation is estimated based upon the Griffin Park Tax Sharing Agreement between the City of Manteca and San Joaquin County.  The agreement splits taxes 60% to the County and 40% to the City after the County gets the base year revenue is subtracted from the proceeds.
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.4
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Case Study Analyses
Average Income and Taxable Expenditures for Residential Units Residential Land Use Avg Home Value [1]
Motor Court $                   427,500 $                               29,958 $                                                 90,000 45'x75'                      480,000                                 33,638                                                 100,000 50'x80'                      500,000                                 35,039                                                 100,000 45'x100'                      520,000                                 36,441                                                 100,000 50'x100'                      537,500                                 37,667                                                 110,000 60'x100'                      565,500                                 39,629                                                 110,000 100'x100'                      655,000                                 45,901                                                 130,000 Average Taxable Expenditures [4]
Motor Court 25.0% $                                                 22,500 45'x75' 25.0%                                                    25,000 50'x80' 25.0% 25,000
45'x100' 25.0% 25,000
50'x100' 25.0% 27,500
60'x100' 23.0% 25,300
100'x100' 23.0% 29,900
Total Taxable Expenditures Occupied Units Taxable Expenditures Motor Court 81 $                                            1,822,500 45'x75' 114                                              2,850,000 50'x80' 194                                              4,850,000 45'x100' 63                                              1,575,000 50'x100' 179                                              4,922,500 60'x100' 112                                              2,833,600 100'x100' 30                                                 897,000 Total 773 $                                          19,750,600 Taxable Sales from New Households
Est. Taxable Capture Rate within City of Manteca [5] 35% Total Taxable Sales from New Households $                                            6,910,000 Estimated Sales Tax Revenue
Sales and Use Tax: General 1.00% $                                                 69,100 Sales and Use Tax: Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [6] 2.3426% $                                                    1,600 Notes:
[1] Estimated home values provided by Developer.
[2]  Based on a 4.75%, 30‐year fixed rate mortgage with a 20% down payment and 2% for annual taxes and insurance. [6] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020‐21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.
[5] Represents the portion of household retail expenditures estimated to take place in the City of Manteca.

Household Income and Taxable Expenditures
Average Taxable Expenditures
Taxable Exp. As % of
Income
Percentage of Annual
Taxable Sales
[4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Total Annual Mortgage,
Ins., & Tax Payments [2]
Estimated Household Income
(Rounded) [3]
[3] Assumes mortgage lending guidelines allow no more than 35% of income dedicated to mortgage payments, taxes, and insurance. 12 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.5
Machado Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
General Assumptions
General Assumptions Assumption
Base Fiscal Year [1] FY 2020‐21
Property Turnover Rate (% per year)
Residential [2] 14.30%
Units Total Persons
Motor Court 3.18                          87                                     277 45'x75'                         3.18 122                                   388 50'x80'                         3.18 208                                   661 45'x100'                         3.18 67                                     213 50'x100'                         3.18 191                                   607 60'x100'                         3.18 120                                   382 100'x100'                         3.18 32                                     102 Total Potential Residents  827                               2,630 Vacancy Rate 6.50%
Total Residents                2,459
General Demographic Characteristics
Total Citywide
City of Manteca Population [4]               84,800
City of Manteca Employees [5]               19,300
City of Manteca Persons Served (Population plus 50% of Employees)               94,450 Source: California Department of Finance
Notes:
[4] City Population per California Department of Finance E‐1 City/County Population Estimate as of 1‐1‐2020. [5] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 16,862 jobs in Manteca, CA in 2017.

California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2017 for the Stockton‐Lodi MSA.

Escalated 2017 employment figure to arrive at 2019 employment estimate, adjusted by an additional 10% to account for self‐employed workers, and rounded to the nearest hundred employees. [1]  City of Manteca 2019‐2020 Budget.  This analysis does not reflect changes in values resulting from inflation or appreciation.

Persons per
Dwelling Unit [3]
[2] Assumes residential property turns over every seven years. [3] Assumes 3.18 persons per household per California Department of Finance E‐5 City/County Population Estimate as of 1‐1‐2020.
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ATTACHMENT 16
Table A.6
Machado Property
Property Tax Allocation Assumptions (2020)
TRA: 102‐136 Pre Post
Property Tax Fund Annexation Annexation
CITY OF MANTECA [1] 0.0000% 8.846100%
COUNTY GENERAL 20.2936% 24.2720%
ROAD DISTRICT 3.9784% 0.0000%
COUNTY LIBRARY 1.6391% 1.6391%
MANTECA UNIFIED SCHOOLS 26.9372% 26.9372%
S.J. DELTA COMM COLLEGE 3.6467% 3.6467%
COUNTY OFFICE OF EDUCATION 1.3178% 1.3178%
LATHROP‐MANTECA RURAL FIRE 8.8461% 0.0000%
SJC FLOOD CONTROL 0.1599% 0.1599%
SJC MOSQUITO ABATEMENT 0.7179% 0.7179%
RECL.DISTR. #17 0.0000% 0.0000%
SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN IRRIGATION 5.4166% 5.4166%
ERAF ‐ EDUCATIONAL REVENUE AUGMENTATION FUN 27.0467% 27.0467% Subtotal 100.0000% 100.0000%
Source:  San Joaquin County Tax Increment Distribution Report 2020 Notes:
[1]  Assumes the City of Manteca and San Joaquin County will agree to a tax sharing agreement with a split of 40% to the City based upon the Griffin Park annexation.  The City would receive 40% of the County General and Road Disctrict proceeds and 100% of the Lathrop‐Manteca Rural Fire. 14 DRAFT
ATTACHMENT 16