June 2022
City of Manteca:
2022 Community Priorities Survey
June 2022
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Overview and Research Objectives
The City of Manteca commissioned LEG/Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives:
Gauge satisfaction with the provision of City services and management of public funds, and assess the public’s perceptions of where the economy is headed;
Assess opinion on the City’s efforts to address the coronavirus crisis; Assess potential voter support for a sales tax measure to maintain essential city services with funding that cannot be taken by the State; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of informational and critical statements on potential voter support;
Identify the rate and duration at which voters will support the measure; Assess potential voter support for an alternative sales tax measure to maintain and improve public safety and public works services with funding that cannot be taken by the State; and
Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics.
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Methodology Overview
Data Collection Landline (35), cell (89), text to online (330), and email to online (57) interviewing
Universe 18,558 Likely November 2022 Voters
Fielding Dates May 23 to May 31, 2022
Interview Length 20.5 minutes
Sample Size 511
Margin of Error ± 4.28%
The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in the City of Manteca in terms of their gender, age, and political party type.
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Key Findings
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Nov 2020 Nov 2022
Total Satisfied 64.6% 50.2%
Total Dissatisfied 27.3% 43.0%
Ratio Sat to Dissat 2.4 1.17
Q1. Satisfaction With Provision of City
Services
Very satisfied
10.8%
Somewhat
satisfied
39.5%
Somewhat
dissatisfied
25.7%
Very
dissatisfied
17.2%
DK/NA
6.8%
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June 2022
Q2. Satisfaction With the City’s
Management of Public Funds
Very satisfied
7.3%
Somewhat
satisfied
26.1%
Somewhat
dissatisfied
27.6%
Very dissatisfied
28.3%
DK/NA
10.7%
Nov 2022
Total Satisfied 33.4%
Total Dissatisfied 55.9%
Ratio Sat to Dissat .6
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June 2022
Q3. Opinion on Direction of Economy in
6 Months
Better
11.8%
About the same
Worse 23.8%
57.9%
DK/NA
6.5%
Nov 2020 Nov 2022
Better 26.5% 11.8%
About the same 32.0% 23.8%
Worse 31.2% 57.9%
DK/NA 10.2% 6.5%
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June 2022
Q4. Favorability Rating of How the City
is Addressing COVID Crisis
Very favorable
16.6%
Somewhat
favorable
42.2%
Somewhat
unfavorable
13.9%
Very
unfavorable
6.0%
DK/NA
21.3%
Nov 2020 Nov 2022
Total Favorable 52.0% 58.8%
Total Unfavorable 26.4% 19.9%
Ratio Fav to Unfav 2.0 2.95
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q5. Uninformed Support for Sales Tax
Measure
To maintain essential city services
with funding that cannot be taken by
the state, such as
• fire protection;
• neighborhood police patrols;
• crime prevention
• potholes/ street repair;
• reducing city traffic congestion;
• funding homelessness reduction
programs; and
• anti-gang and anti-drug after school
programs;
shall the measure establishing a City
of Manteca 1 cent sales tax, providing
$19 million dollars annually, until
ended by voters, be adopted, for
general government use, with audits,
independent citizen oversight, and all
funds spent locally?
Probably
No
13.9%
DK/NA
9.8%
Definitely
No
23.7%
Definitely Yes
21.1%
Probably Yes
31.4%
Total Support
52.5%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q6. Features of the Measure I
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.
Somewhat
More Likely
Somewhat
Less Likely
Much Less
Likely
-2 -1 0 1 2
F. Maintain youth and teen recreation and after school
programs
O. Expand youth anti-gang and anti-drug programs
M. Maintain youth and senior recreation programs
B. Maintain fire protection services
A. Enhance neighborhood police patrols and crime
prevention programs
P. Improve traffic flow and reduce congestion on city
streets
Q. Maintain emergency response times
N. Keeping public spaces safe and clean
C. Maintain pothole and street repair
0.68 0.74
0.81 0.86
0.89 0.93
0.94 0.94
1.00 Much More
Likely
Tier 1
72.2%
60.4%
Tier 2
61.3%
Sample A
Sample B
63.8%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q6. Features of the Measure II
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.
Somewhat
More Likely
Somewhat
Less Likely
Much Less
Likely
-2 -1 0 1 2
L. Support relief and recovery from the COVID-19 crisis J. Revitalize Downtown
H. Upgrade local storm water drains to prevent toxic
runoff and pollution from entering local rivers, lakes… E. Maintain emergency disaster and health crisis
preparedness
I. Support local small businesses and jobs creation
K. Fund homelessness reduction programs
D. Increase community policing programs
G. Maintain safe playground equipment and clean parks
0.14 0.41
0.48 0.51
0.54 0.56
0.61 0.67
Much More
Likely
Tier 2 cont’d
57.1%
42.4%
Tier 3
53.2%
Sample A
Sample B
56.5%
49.9%
T-4
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q7. Informational Statements I
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2
W. Safe neighborhoods and well maintained city streets
and parks help protect our property values and…
T. This measure will maintain and enhance public safety including neighborhood police patrols, emergency…
E. Essential purchases like groceries and prescription
medicine are exempt from sales tax, which will ensure…
M. Homelessness is growing in Manteca. We need to
compassionately address homelessness and mental…
B. This measure requires independent citizens oversight, mandatory financial audits, and yearly reports to the…
R. Many streets and roads have not had major repair in
more than 7 years
C. None of the money raised by the measure would be
used for City administrator salaries
A. By law, all funds from this measure must stay in and benefit Manteca and cannot be taken by Sacramento
1.14 1.14
1.16 1.16
1.16 1.18
1.23 1.30
No Effect Somewhat
More Likely
Much More
Likely
73.0%
68.2%
Tier 1
Sample A
Sample B
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q7. Informational Statements II
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2
S. Now is the right time to invest in Manteca. It will cost less to repair and maintain streets and roads now as…
V. A new City leadership team of experienced
professionals who live in Manteca are turning things…
L. Manteca's roads have deteriorated significantly due to lack of funding. This measure would provide funding to… U. Manteca's population has grown by almost 20,000
residents in the past 12 years and the number of 9-1-1… I. If the measure is approved, street and pothole repair efforts will be enhanced to include residential streets… K. The measure will help keep police officers on the
streets to maintain the successful crime fighting efforts… J. The measure will help maintain streets and repair
potholes on more than 450 miles of streets in the City… N. Seconds count in an emergency. For victims of heart
attacks, strokes, accidents and other emergencies, it…
1.03 1.03
1.06 1.07
1.10 1.10
1.11 1.12
No Effect Somewhat
More Likely
Much More
Likely
Tier 2
67.2%
62.9%
64.6%
Tier 1 cont’d
64.7%
Sample A
Sample B
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q7. Informational Statements III
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2
F. The City lost more than $10 million dollars in normal revenue, from reduced hotel visits, during the COVID-19 crisis that has not been replaced
Q. The measure will help the City to support local
businesses and job creation as Manteca recovers from
the COVID-19 crisis
D. Visitors and shoppers from outside of Manteca who
use our roads, sidewalks and public safety services will pay their fair share to help maintain our quality of life… H. The measure will help maintain programs to identify
and prevent drug and gang violence
O. Unless we expand our own ability to be self-reliant, we will be left to the mercy of Sacramento politicians who tend to help and listen to larger cities
G. This measure will maintain after-school recreation and anti-gang and youth crime prevention programs including mentoring and tutoring, that keep youth and teens off…
P. We must keep children out of gangs and off drugs.
This measure will fund more school police officers, youth crime prevention and intervention programs, and after-…
0.53 0.85
0.89 0.91
0.98 1.01
1.02 No Effect Somewhat
More Likely
Much More
Likely
Tier 3
59.7%
33.4%
52.9%
Tier 2 cont’d
51.8%
Sample A
Sample B
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q8. Critical Statements I
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2
B. Given the rising inflation rate and the increasing cost of basics like gas, groceries and medications, we can't
afford this tax now
J. Even the Grand Jury feels that City Management is
ineffective, disorganized and incompetent. How can we
trust them to spend taxpayer dollars?
H. The City is getting so much money from new
development and new businesses in town, we don't need
to tax residents too. We don't need this measure; City… G. City Hall is completely dysfunctional, with a revolving door of city staff and four City Managers in four years. We just can't trust them to spend money right
F. The City will be increasing water, sewer and garbage rates dramatically in the next year. We can't afford a sales tax increase on top of that
L. The City has said it will use this money for unfunded liabilities, pensions, and health care costs. We shouldn't pay a dime for their mismanagement and gold-plated…
1.08 1.11
1.15 1.16
1.19 1.26
No Effect Somewhat
More Likely
Much More
Likely
Tier 1
66.2%
61.7%
Sample A
Sample B
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q8. Critical Statements II
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
“Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2
K. Local businesses oppose this measure because
increasing the sales tax will only hurt local businesses and drive shoppers and businesses out of town
A. Increasing the sales tax will drive businesses and
shoppers out of Manteca and hurt the local economy
E. The voters rejected this same tax in 2020, when will they accept that voters don't want another tax
C. Don't be fooled, this is really a forever tax and will never expire
I. Passing this measure will give the City of Manteca
permission to do what they want with $19 million dollars D. A sales tax is a regressive tax that hurts low income residents and seniors on fixed incomes the most
0.91 0.93
0.96 0.99
1.04 1.05
No Effect Somewhat
More Likely
Much More
Likely
Tier 2
59.2%
56.6%
Sample A
Sample B
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q9. Informed Support for Sales Tax
Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Initial Test
Final Test
21.1%
19.0%
31.4%
28.5%
13.9%
14.8%
23.7%
25.4%
9.8%
12.2%
Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
47.5%
To maintain essential city services
with funding that cannot be taken
by the state, such as
• fire protection;
• neighborhood police patrols;
• crime prevention
• potholes/ street repair;
• reducing city traffic congestion;
• funding homelessness
reduction programs; and
• anti-gang and anti-drug after
school programs;
shall the measure establishing a
City of Manteca 1 cent sales tax,
providing $19 million dollars
annually, until ended by voters, be
adopted, for general government
use, with audits, independent
citizen oversight, and all funds
spent locally?
52.5%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q10. Support for Alternative ½ Cent Rate
Sales Tax Measure
Sample A
INSTEAD of a one cent sales tax to
fund fire protection; neighborhood
police patrols; crime prevention
potholes and street repair; reducing
city traffic congestion; funding
homelessness reduction programs;
and anti-gang and anti-drug after
school programs, another alternative
would be to levy a one-half cent sales
tax that would fund the services and
facilities
Probably
No
13.1%
DK/NA
10.3%
Definitely
No
26.6%
Definitely Yes
23.6%
Probably Yes
26.4%
Total Support
50.0%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q11. Support for Alternative 9 Year Duration
Sales Tax Measure
Sample B
Instead of levying the sales tax until
ended by voters, if you heard that the
sales tax would end in 9 years, would
you vote yes or no on the measure?
Probably
No
15.2%
DK/NA
12.9%
Definitely
No
23.4%
Definitely Yes
24.5%
Probably Yes
24.0%
Total Support
48.5%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Q12. Support for Alternative Special Sales
Tax Measure
To maintain and improve Manteca
public safety and public works
services, including:
• neighborhood police patrols;
• crime prevention
• potholes and street repair;
• fire protection services;
• emergency disaster preparedness;
• anti-gang and anti-drug after school
programs; and
• additional police and homelessness
reduction
programs;
shall the City of Manteca’s measure
establishing a 1 cent sales tax,
providing approximately $19 million
dollars annually until ended by voters
be adopted, with independent citizens'
oversight, no money for the State, and
all funds spent locally?
Probably No
15.3%
DK/NA
12.4%
Definitely
No
25.3%
Definitely Yes
20.4%
Probably Yes
26.7%
Total Support
47.1%
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
Summary Findings
Satisfaction with City services has decreased, and a majority of voters are not satisfied with the management of public funds
Local voters are also much more pessimistic about the economy The viability of a general-purpose measure never exceeds majorities outside of the Margin of Error.
The measure drops below 50% after respondents hear all information including positives and criticisms.
It is LEG’s professional judgement that the measure is not viable in this economy.
ATTACHMENT 1
June 2022
www.godberesearch.com
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ATTACHMENT 1