M EMORANDUM
To: Michael Kiper, KDH Group, LLC
From: Jamie Gomes and Sean Fisher
Subject: Dutra Property Fiscal Impact Analysis;
EPS #212095
Date: February 28, 2022
Introduction
KDH Group, LLC (Applicant) retained Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) to evaluate the fiscal impacts of the proposed Dutra Property Development (Project) on the City of Manteca (City). The Project is anticipated to be a
residential development project on an approximately
34.6-acre site, located adjacent to the city limits. The site is located in unincorporated San Joaquin County (County), within the City’s Sphere of Influence but is anticipated to be annexed into the City before development. This
memorandum summarizes an evaluation of the fiscal
impacts of the Project on the City.
This fiscal impact analysis (Analysis) examines the Project’s estimated fiscal impact on the City’s annual General Fund budget. Specifically, the Analysis estimates whether
projected revenues from the Project will adequately cover the costs of delivering citywide services (e.g., general government, public protection, and parks and recreation) to the Project’s residents. The Analysis is based on the assumption that these services will be provided by the City.
It is assumed that the Project will annex into the City before development. The Analysis assesses two potential tax-sharing agreements that may be entered into by the
City and the County at the time of annexation. The base scenario reflects a tax-sharing scenario based on the
master tax-sharing agreement entered into between the
City and the County, dated November 2018. The master
tax-sharing scenario assumes 80 percent of eligible
property tax revenues will be allocated to the County and the remaining 20 percent will be retained by the City.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 In addition to the base scenario, the Analysis assesses the Project impacts under an alternative tax-sharing agreement scenario with 60 percent of eligible property tax revenues being allocated to the County and the remaining 40 percent being allocated to the City, consistent with the agreement reached for the recent Griffin Park Project annexation.
The technical analysis is attached to this memorandum. The technical analysis, including data, assumptions, and detailed calculations underlying the Analysis, is provided in Appendices A through D.
Project Overview
The Project is anticipated to develop on an approximately 34.6-acre vacant site, located adjacent to the city limits, north of Peach Avenue between Airport Way and Oleander Avenue. The Project is anticipated to contain 197 single-family dwelling units.
Table A-2 in Appendix A summarizes the Project’s land use plan at buildout.
Overview of Results
Under the base scenario, the Analysis yields the following results as summarized in Table 1. Table 2A provides a detailed line-item listing of City General Fund revenues and expenditures resulting from buildout of the Project under the Master Tax-Sharing Scenario. Table 2B provides a detailed line-item listing of revenues and expenditures under the Alternative Tax-Sharing Agreement Scenario:
• Buildout of the Project is estimated to yield a marginal net fiscal surplus for the City’s General Fund under the Master Tax-Sharing Scenario. At buildout, the Project is estimated to generate a net annual General Fund surplus of approximately $75,000. The Analysis estimates the Project will generate about $260,000 in net, new, annual City General Fund revenues and will require about $185,000 in annual City General Fund service costs.
• Under the Alternative Tax-Sharing Agreement Scenario, the Project is estimated to result in a fiscal surplus to the City. As shown in Table 2B, At buildout, the Project is estimated to generate a net annual General Fund surplus of approximately $160,000. Under the Alternative Tax-Sharing Agreement Scenario, the Analysis estimates the Project will generate about $345,000 in net, new, annual City General Fund revenues and will require about $185,000 in annual City General Fund service costs.
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Table 1
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits (2020$)
Item
Annual Fiscal Impact
Annual General Fund Revenues $260,000
Annual General Fund Expenditures $185,000
Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $75,000
sum
Source: EPS.
Estimated Annual
Revenues/Expenditures
(Rounded)
Master Tax Share
Agreement Scenario
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Table 2A
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Item
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes $84,200
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees $98,800
Real Property Transfer Tax $10,000
Sales and Use Taxes $44,400
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax $1,300
Transient Occupancy Tax $6,600
Licenses and Permits -
Business Licenses $4,100
Franchise Fees $11,000
Total General Fund Revenue $260,400
Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy $1,000
Legal Services $600
City Administration $500
Public Works Administration $100
Non Departmental $5,700
Human Resources $1,000
Fiscal and Revenue Management $600
Economic and Community Development $200
Fleet Maintenance $300
Subtotal General Government $10,000
Public Safety
Police Protection $97,600
Animal Services $1,000
Fire Protection $47,700
Subtotal Public Safety $146,300
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $18,300
Library $800
Recreational and Senior Services $6,200
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svc $25,300
Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $400
Subtotal Public Utilities $400
Transportation
Streets $2,600
Subtotal Transportation $2,600
Total General Fund Expenditures $184,600
Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $75,800
det sum
Source: EPS.
Estimated Annual Revenues /
Expenditures (Rounded)
Master Tax Share Agreement
Scenario
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures -
Master Tax Share Agreement Scenario (2020$)
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Table 2B
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Item
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes $168,400
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees $98,800
Real Property Transfer Tax $10,000
Sales and Use Taxes $44,400
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax $1,300
Transient Occupancy Tax $6,600
Licenses and Permits -
Business Licenses $4,100
Franchise Fees $11,000
Total General Fund Revenue $344,600
Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy $1,000
Legal Services $600
City Administration $500
Public Works Administration $100
Non Departmental $5,700
Human Resources $1,000
Fiscal and Revenue Management $600
Economic and Community Development $200
Fleet Maintenance $300
Subtotal General Government $10,000
Public Safety
Police Protection $97,600
Animal Services $1,000
Fire Protection $47,700
Subtotal Public Safety $146,300
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $18,300
Library $800
Recreational and Senior Services $6,200
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $25,300
Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $400
Subtotal Public Utilities $400
Transportation
Streets $2,600
Subtotal Transportation $2,600
Total General Fund Expenditures $184,600
Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $160,000
det sum
Source: EPS.
Estimated Annual Revenues /
Expenditures (Rounded)
Alternative Tax Share Scenario
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures -
Alternative Scenario (2020$)
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Methodology and Assumptions
This section details the underlying methodology and assumptions used to estimate the fiscal impact of the Project on the City. It describes assumptions concerning municipal service delivery, land development, and General Fund budgeting. In addition, it details the methodology used to forecast the Project’s General Fund revenues and expenditures at buildout.
Municipal Service Provision
This Analysis examines the Project’s ability to generate adequate revenues to cover the City’s costs of providing public services to the Project. The services analyzed in this Analysis comprise General Fund services (e.g., public safety, parks, general government).
The Analysis excludes any services that may be funded privately, such as common area maintenance costs, which may be funded through a Homeowners’ Association (HOA) or other private mechanisms. The Analysis also excludes publicly administered service and maintenance costs such as landscaping, lighting, drainage, or roadway that are anticipated to be funded through other funding mechanisms. This Analysis also does not address activities budgeted in other City Governmental Funds or Proprietary Funds, nor does it include an evaluation of capital facilities or funding of capital facilities needed to serve new development.
General Assumptions
The Analysis is based on the City’s Budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020–21, including mid-year budget adjustments provided by City staff, tax regulations, statutes current as of November 2021, and other general assumptions discussed herein.
Each revenue item is estimated based on current State of California (State) legislation and current City practices. Therefore, the Analysis reflects the current State-local fiscal relationship as it exists at the time the Analysis was completed.
Future changes by either State legislation or City practices may affect the revenues and expenditures estimated in this Analysis. All costs and revenues are shown in constant 2020 dollars. General fiscal and demographic assumptions are detailed in Table A-1 in Appendix A.
EPS consulted the City’s budget documents to develop forecasting methodologies for specific revenues and expenditures affected by new development in the proposed Project. In addition, EPS consulted with City staff to clarify budget data and review assumptions and Analysis results. This Analysis also used information from the following sources: Project Applicant, County Assessor and AuditorController, State Department of Finance (DOF), State Board of Equalization (BOE), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and subscription-based data sources (e.g., CoStar).
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212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) The actual fiscal impacts of new development in the Project will vary from those presented in this Analysis if development plans or other assumptions (e.g., assessed valuations, sales tax revenue assumptions) change from those presented in this Analysis.
General Fund Revenue- and Expenditure-Estimating Assumptions This Analysis considers only discretionary General Fund revenues that will be generated by the Project. Offsetting revenues, which are General Fund revenues that are dedicated to offset the costs of specific General Fund department functions, are excluded from this Analysis. Departmental costs funded by offsetting revenues or not affected by development also are excluded from this Analysis. Calculations used to exclude offsetting revenues from total annual revenues in the Analysis were reviewed by City staff and are shown in Table B-1 in Appendix B. Calculations to estimate annual expenditures, net of offsetting revenues, are shown in Table C-1 in Appendix C.
Development Assumptions
Listed below are brief summaries of land use and other development-related assumptions:
• Land Use: The Project is entitled to accommodate single-family residential units, as described above.
• Residential and Employee Estimates: Residential population is calculated using an average persons-per-household factor of 3.18 for single-family residential units, based on data provided by the U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2019 estimates. In estimating certain annual revenues and expenditures (service demands) related to the Project, EPS developed a “persons-served” population estimate to approximate the impacts of an employee in the Project relative to a Project resident. EPS uses a factor of
0.5 employees plus all residents to derive the Project’s persons-served population. As the Project contains no commercial uses, the Project’s persons served is equal to Project residents. Table A-3 in Appendix A shows the estimated residents and persons served generated by the Project. • Project Assessed Value: The estimated assessed valuation of residential development is based on Project-specific value assumptions provided by the Project Applicant. Estimated buildout assessed values for the Project are calculated in Table D-2 in Appendix D.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 • Property Turnover Rates: The Analysis is based on the assumption that a for-sale owner-occupied residential unit would turn over once every 7 years. • Income of Households: The average household income for residential units in the Project is used to forecast household retail expenditures. As shown in Table D-3 in Appendix D, this calculation was derived using the following assumptions and data inputs:
— Estimated home value.
— Assumed 5 percent, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a 20 percent down payment and 2 percent annual taxes and insurance for owner-occupied residential units.
— Monthly HOA dues for owner-occupied units.
— Estimated 35 percent of income dedicated to mortgage payments, taxes, and insurance.
Revenue-Estimating Methodology
EPS used either a marginal-revenue case-study approach or an average-revenue approach to estimate Project-related revenues.
The marginal-revenue case-study approach simulates actual revenue generation resulting from new development. The case-study approach for estimating sales and use tax revenues, for instance, forecasts market demand and taxable spending from the Project’s new residents. Case studies used in this Analysis are discussed in greater detail later in this section.
The average-revenue approach uses the City’s FY 2020-21 budgeted revenue amounts on a citywide per-persons-served basis to forecast revenues derived from estimated residents and employees of the Project.1 Revenue sources not expected to increase as a result of development are excluded from this Analysis. These sources of revenue are not affected by development because they are either one-time revenue sources not guaranteed to be available in the future or there is no direct relation between increased employment growth and increased revenue.
1 A per-persons-served basis of estimating revenues is used to take into account that businesses (and their employees) have a fiscal impact on many City revenues but at a lower level than residential development’s impact. As the Project does not include commercial land uses, the persons served is equal to Project residents.
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212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) A listing of all included City revenue sources and the corresponding estimating procedure used to forecast future Project revenues is shown in Table B-1 in Appendix B. A summary of estimated annual General Fund revenues generated by the Project is provided in Table B-2.
Property Tax
Estimated annual property tax revenue resulting from development in the Project is presented in Table B-3 in Appendix B. To be consistent with the City’s budget data, the estimated assessed values for Project land uses are assumed to remain static in 2020 dollar values—real growth in assessed value is not estimated.
The Project site is located in Tax Rate Areas (TRA) 102-136 and 102-001, which are located in the unincorporated County. The Project is anticipated to annex into the City, and the Analysis includes 2 potential annexation scenarios reflecting 2 allocations of the 1 percent ad valorem property tax to be retained by the City and the County following development. The Base Scenario is the Master TaxSharing Agreement Scenario, assuming 80 percent of eligible funds will be retained by the County and the remaining 20 percent will be retained by the City, after any Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund (ERAF) adjustments. The Alternative Tax-Sharing Agreement Scenario is based on the assumption the County will receive a 60 percent share of eligible funds, with the remaining 40 percent retained by the City. The share of property taxes the City is assumed to receive from the Project is derived from the total assessed value of the Project and the estimated property tax allocation, as shown in Table D-1 in Appendix D.2
Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees
A formula provided by the State Controller’s Office was used to forecast Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees (PTIL VLF), which are calculated by taking the percentage increase of the City’s assessed value resulting from the Project and applying that percentage share to the City’s current State allocation of PTIL VLF.
This calculation is shown in Table B-3 in Appendix B.
Real Property Transfer Tax
Real property transfer tax is based on the assessed value of the Project’s land uses and the anticipated turnover of residential properties over time. As stated earlier, the Analysis is based on the assumption the Project’s owner-occupied residential property will turn over 14.3 percent per year (or once every 7 years).
Real property transfer tax revenue projections are identified in Table B-4 in Appendix B.
2 Final amount subject to negotiation and agreement between the City and the County.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Sales Tax
Sales tax revenues are based on taxable sales generated in the City and the Bradley-Burns 1 percent local sales tax rate. The City has an additional voterapproved half-cent sales tax, Measure M, to be used for public safety expenditures. This Analysis includes only discretionary City General Fund expenditures; because Measure M funds are used for specific expenditures, the Measure M sales tax has been excluded from this Analysis. Estimated sales tax revenues to the City are summarized in Table B-5 in Appendix B.
For residential projects, EPS uses a Market Support Method, which measures taxable sales generated from new Project households and employees spending money within the City’s boundaries.
Market Support Method
New Households
This Analysis estimates retail expenditures of future residents in the Project by type of retail category and the share of expenditures estimated to be captured in the City (e.g., sales generated in the City’s retail establishments). The amounts and types of expenditures made by residents generally depends on their household income. Data for this Analysis are based on estimated Project resident incomes, household spending patterns, and retail demand and supply market conditions in the City.
Specifically, this Analysis estimates retail expenditures of future residents by:
• Estimating the total income of new households, based on projected home sales prices for new owner-occupied homes, housing costs, and estimated household income, as shown in Table D-3 in Appendix D. Estimated household incomes are based on the assumption that 35 percent of income is spent on housing costs.
• Evaluating Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) data from the U.S. BLS, which reports the proportion of income spent on various household goods and services by income group.
• Translating the U.S. BLS data on household expenditures into retail store categories by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.3 Sales prices for the Project’s owner-occupied homes are estimated at $645,000 per unit. Based on this estimated home sales price and monthly rent estimates, EPS estimated future household incomes of approximately $137,000. Typical household expenditure patterns from the U.S. BLS’ CES suggests, at these income 3 The NAICS classifies retail stores into 12 categories. Although not classified under retail trade, Food Services and Drinking Places typically are considered part of retail in retail market analyses.
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212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) levels, Project residents are estimated to spend 23 percent of their household income on taxable retail expenditures.
EPS estimates approximately 75 percent of household expenditures will be captured by retail outlets in the City. Refer to Table B-5A in Appendix B for more details.
Proposition 172
Public safety sales tax is collected on a countywide basis and allocated principally to the County, with a small portion of revenue allocated to incorporated cities in the County. This revenue source is used to fund police and fire services in the City. Estimated revenue from the City’s share of the County’s half-cent sales tax for public safety is shown in Table B-5.
Expenditure-Estimating Methodology
Expenditure estimates are based on the City’s FY 2020-21 budget and supplemental information from City staff.4 This Analysis estimates General Fund expenditures to the Project. General Fund department expenditures expected to be affected by the Project are forecasted using an average-cost approach, which uses the City’s FY 2020-21 budgeted expenditures on a citywide per-personsserved or per capita basis to forecast expenditures required to serve new development.
A listing of all City General Fund expenditures and the corresponding estimating procedure used to forecast future Project expenditures is shown in Table C-1 in Appendix C. A summary of estimated annual expenditures required to serve the Project at buildout is provided in Table C-2.
Average-Cost Expenditures
Expenditures that are affected by residents and employees are projected using a per-person-served average cost multiplier. These expenditures include all departmental expenditures, except parks, recreation, and community service expenditures, which are estimated using a per capita average cost multiplier because these services generally are demanded by residential development only.
For general government and public utility expenditures, an adjustment of 50 percent is made to account for fixed costs not expected to grow with Project development.
4 This Analysis primarily is based on the City’s FY 2020-21 budget, updated to reflect mid-year budget adjustments, as provided by City staff.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 212095 City Fiscal M02 02-02-22 Technical Appendices
The technical calculations used in this Analysis are shown in Appendices A through D (Tables A-1 through D-3):
• Appendix A indicates the proposed land uses and general assumptions used in this Analysis.
• Appendix B identifies the projected revenues that will be generated by the Project for the City’s General Fund.
• Appendix C details the estimated expenditures for the City to provide General Fund services to the Project.
• Appendix D shows the projected assessed value of the Project, which serves as the basis for calculating property tax revenues. In addition, this appendix provides detail on the portion of the Assembly Bill 8 allocation of property tax revenues provided to the City and includes the calculation of estimated average household income.
ATTACHMENT 12
APPENDICES:
Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: Revenue-Estimating Tables
Appendix C: Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for Revenue
and Expenditure Analyses
ATTACHMENT 12
APPENDIX A:
General Assumptions
Table A-1 General Assumptions ........................................... A-1 Table A-2 Land Use Summary at Buildout ............................. A-2 Table A-3 Estimated Persons Served .................................... A-3 Table A-4 Analysis Assumptions ........................................... A-4 ATTACHMENT 12
Table A-1
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
General Assumptions
Item Assumption
General Assumptions
Fiscal Year FY 2020-21
General Demographic Characteristics
City of Manteca
Population [1] 84,800
Employees [2] 21,000
City of Manteca Persons Served [3] 95,300
gen assumps
Source: California Department of Finance; EDD; U.S. Census LED; EPS. [3] Persons served is defined as total population plus half of total employees. Used to estimate specific revenues and expenditures that are assumed to be impacted by growth in resident and employment populations and to avoid double counting of employees who reside in the City.
City of
Manteca
[1] Based on population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) data for January 1, 2021.
[2] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 18,767 jobs in Manteca, CA in 2018.
California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2018 for the Stockton-Lodi MSA.
EPS adjusted the 2018 employment figure to arrive at a 2021 employment estimate using this growth rate and further increased the total by 10% to account for self-employed workers. Estimate is rounded to the nearest hundred employees.
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A-1 ATTACHMENT 12
Table A-2
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Total and Occupied Project Land Uses
Land Use Acres
Total
Dwelling
Units
Vacancy
Rate
Occupied
Dwelling
Units
Development Projections
Residential Land Uses
Single Family Residential 35 197 6% 185
Subtotal Residential 35 197 185
Total All Land Uses 35 197 185
lu
Source: North Star Engineering Group; EPS.
Project Land Uses
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Table A-3
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Persons Served
Assumption
Land Use [1]
Project Residents
Residential Land Uses PPH
Single Family Residential 3.18 588
Subtotal Residential Land Uses 588
Total Resident Population 588
Project Persons Served 588
pop
Source: California Department of Finance; EPS.
Estimated
Population
[1] For persons per household assumptions, refer to Table A-4.
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Table A-4
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Land Use Assumptions
Persons per
Estimated Property Household/
Assessed Turnover Vacancy Sq. Ft. per
Land Use Value [1] Rate [2] Rate [3] Employee [4]
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Owner-Occupied Residential
Single Family Residential $645,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.18
lu assum
Source: North Star Engineering Group; US Census; EPS.
[1] Assessed value based on the rounded estimated market value per unit as provided by the Project Applicant. [2] Owner-occupied residential assumed to turn over once every 7 years and renter-occupied residential is assumed to turn over once every 15 years.
City of
Manteca
[3] Residential vacancy rates obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2019 estimates, for the City of Manteca. [4] Persons per household figures obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2019 estimates.
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APPENDIX B:
Revenue-Estimating Tables
Table B-1 Revenue-Estimating Procedures ............................ B-1 Table B-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues .............. B-2 Table B-3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues ............... B-3 Table B-4 Real Property Transfer Tax Revenues ..................... B-4 Table B-5 Estimated Annual Sales and Use Tax Revenues ........ B-5 Table B-5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method .................... B-6 ATTACHMENT 12
Table B-1
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Budgeted Budgeted
Estimating Case Study General Fund Offsetting Net General Service Revenue Item Procedure Reference Revenues [1] Revenues Fund Revenues Population [2] Multiplier General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes Case Study Table B-3 $10,600,345 - $10,600,345 NA - Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees Case Study Table B-3 $7,228,240 - $7,228,240 NA - Real Property Transfer Tax Case Study Table B-4 $678,590 - $678,590 NA - Sales and Use Taxes Case Study Table B-5 $11,770,857 - $11,770,857 NA - Public Safety Sales and Use Tax Case Study Table B-5 $340,315 - $340,315 NA - Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served - $1,062,469 - $1,062,469 95,300 $11.15 Licenses and Permits Persons Served - $252,635 ($252,635) - 95,300 - Business Licenses Persons Served - $667,000 - $667,000 95,300 $7.00 Franchise Fees Persons Served - $1,777,125 - $1,777,125 95,300 $18.65 Excise Tax [3] - $450,000 - $450,000 NA -
Intergovernmental [3] - $1,746,492 ($295,000) $1,451,492 NA - Charges for Services [3] - $8,699,849 ($4,940,845) $3,759,004 NA - Fines and Forfeitures Persons Served - $304,980 ($304,980) $0 95,300 - Use of Money & Property [3] - $920,000 - $920,000 NA -
All Other Revenue [3] - $57,650 - $57,650 NA -
Total General Fund Revenues $46,556,547 ($5,793,460) $40,763,087 Fund Reserves $8,315,434
Total General Fund Revenues (Incl. Reserves) $54,871,981 rev pro
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Final Budget including Midyear Budget Amendments (Current as of March 10, 2021); EPS. [1] Includes midyear budget amendments as provided by City staff, current as of March 10, 2021. [2] Refer to Table A-1 for details.
[3] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by anticipated development and therefore is not evaluated in this analysis.
City of
Manteca
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Table B-2
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues (2020$)
Case Study
Revenue Category Reference
General Fund Revenues
Property Taxes Table B-3 $84,200
Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fees Table B-3 $98,800 Real Property Transfer Tax Table B-4 $10,000
Sales and Use Taxes Table B-5 $44,400
Public Safety Sales and Use Tax Table B-5 $1,300
Transient Occupancy Tax - $6,600
Licenses and Permits - -
Business Licenses - $4,100
Franchise Fees - $11,000
Fines and Forfeitures - -
Total General Fund Revenue $260,400
rev
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Adopted Budget; EPS.
Estimated
Annual Revenue
(Rounded)
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Table B-3
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula
Assessed Value of Project Table D-2 a $127,065,000
Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000% b = a * 1.00% $1,270,650 Estimated Property Tax Allocation [1]
City of Manteca General Fund 6.6282% c = b * 6.63% $84,221 Other Agencies/ERAF 93.3718% d = b * 93.37% $1,186,429
Total City of Manteca General Fund Property Tax e = c $84,221 Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [2] f $9,295,356,393
Total Assessed Value of Project g $127,065,000
Total Assessed Value h = f + g $9,422,421,393
Percent Change in AV i = g / f 1.37%
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [3] $7,228,240 j = i * $7,228,240 $98,808 prop tax
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
Master Tax Share Agreement
Scenario
[2] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes Citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll.
[3] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for details.
[1] Refer to Table D-1 for details.
Estimated
Property Tax
Revenues
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Table B-4
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Real Property Transfer Tax (2020$)
Assumption/
Description Source
Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55
Project Assessed Value Table D-2
Single Family Residential $127,065,000
Total Assessed Value $127,065,000
Turnover Rate
Single Family Residential 14.30%
Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Single Family Residential $9,994
Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenue $9,994
transfer
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
Estimated Annual
Property Transfer Tax
Revenue
[1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1,000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.
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Table B-5
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$) Item Formula
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents) a $4,440,000 Annual Taxable Sales from New Development b = a $4,440,000 Annual Sales Tax Revenue
Bradley Burns Local Sales Tax Revenue c = b * 1.0000% 1.0000% $44,400 City of Manteca Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [1] d = c * 2.8912% 2.8912% $1,284 sales
Source: City of Manteca; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.
Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales
Tax Revenue
[1] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020-21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.
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Table B-5A
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$) Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption
Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents
Residential Development Table A-2 Occupied Dwelling Units Single Family Residential 185
Total Residential Development 185
Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1] Taxable Retail Expenditures Single Family Residential $32,000 $5,920,000
Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $5,920,000
Estimated Citywide Capture from New Households [2] 75% $4,440,000 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $4,440,000 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; City of Manteca; EPS. [1] For details pertaining to resident estimates, refer to Table A-3.
Estimated Annual
Taxable Sales
[2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place within the City of Manteca.
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APPENDIX C:
Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Table C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures ........................ C-1 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures .......... C-2 ATTACHMENT 12
Table C-1
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net City or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment Net FY 2019-20 Item Procedure Expenditures [1] Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cost Factor [2] Avg. Cost General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served $1,569,362 - $1,569,362 95,300 $16.47 10% $1.65 Legal Services Persons Served $920,326 - $920,326 95,300 $9.66 10% $0.97 City Administration Persons Served $1,276,411 ($475,458) $800,953 95,300 $8.40 10% $0.84 Public Works Administration Persons Served $1,709,398 ($1,554,893) $154,505 95,300 $1.62 10% $0.16 Non Departmental Persons Served $9,181,518 - $9,181,518 95,300 $96.34 10% $9.63 Human Resources Persons Served $1,644,221 - $1,644,221 95,300 $17.25 10% $1.73 Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served $1,713,751 ($822,631) $891,120 95,300 $9.35 10% $0.94 Economic and Community Development Persons Served $365,978 - $365,978 95,300 $3.84 10% $0.38 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served $450,675 - $450,675 95,300 $4.73 10% $0.47 Subtotal General Government $18,831,640 ($2,852,981) $15,978,659 Public Safety
Police Protection [3] Persons Served $19,436,258 ($840,780) $18,595,478 95,300 $195.13 85% $165.86 Animal Services Persons Served $450,319 ($252,635) $197,684 95,300 $2.07 85% $1.76 Fire Protection [3] Persons Served $10,890,170 ($1,792,064) $9,098,106 95,300 $95.47 85% $81.15 Subtotal Public Safety $30,776,747 ($2,885,479) $27,891,268 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Per Capita $2,988,546 ($55,000) $2,933,546 84,800 $34.59 90% $31.13 Library Per Capita $133,160 - $133,160 84,800 $1.57 90% $1.41 Recreational and Senior Services Per Capita $996,298 - $996,298 84,800 $11.75 90% $10.57 Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $4,118,004 ($55,000) $4,063,004 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage Persons Served $671,420 - $671,420 95,300 $7.05 10% $0.70 Subtotal Public Utilities $671,420 - $671,420
Transportation
Streets Persons Served $474,170 - $474,170 95,300 $4.98 90% $4.48 Subtotal Transportation $474,170 - $474,170
Total General Fund Expenditures $54,871,981 ($5,793,460) $49,078,521 exp
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Final Budget including Midyear Budget Amendments (Current as of March 10, 2021); EPS. [1] Includes midyear budget amendments as provided by City staff, current as of March 10, 2021. [3] Police and Fire protection expenditures included reflect only City General Fund Police expenditures and excludes any Measure M funded expenditures (Fund 320) for one-time capital expenditures included in the public safety endowment fund (Fund 330).
[2] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new residents may not increase certain General Fund department expenditures at a 1:1 ratio.Given the relatively small size of the Project, an adjustment factor has been applied to the average-cost multipliers for all categories to reflect the percentage of expenditures subject to increases, accounting for fixed costs and unique Project considerations.
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Table C-2
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)
Expenditure Category
General Fund
General Government
Legislation and Policy $969
Legal Services $568
City Administration $494
Public Works Administration $95
Non Departmental $5,668
Human Resources $1,015
Fiscal and Revenue Management $550
Economic and Community Development $226
Fleet Maintenance $278
Subtotal General Government $9,864
Public Safety
Police Protection $97,574
Animal Services $1,037
Fire Protection $47,739
Subtotal Public Safety $146,350
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $18,316
Library $831
Recreational and Senior Services $6,221
Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $25,368
Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $414
Subtotal Public Utilities $414
Transportation
Streets $2,634
Subtotal Transportation $2,634
Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $184,631
exp
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Adopted Budget; EPS.
Estimated Annual
Expenditures [1]
[1] Annual expenditure estimated on a per persons served or per capita basis.
Refer to Table C-1 for estimating procedure and Table A-4 for population estimates.
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APPENDIX D:
Supporting Tables for Revenue and
Expenditure Analyses
Table D-1 Estimated Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Areas ............................................... D-1 Table D-2 Project Assessed Valuation .................................. D-2 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annual Household Income ........ D-3 ATTACHMENT 12
Table D-1
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Areas Tax Code Entity TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 Total Formula a b e f g = e + f h i = h * $440,640 j = i / $1,329,596 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 20.2936% 20.3260% $15,919 $254,311 $270,230 80% $352,512 26.51271% 10527 Road District 5 3.9784% 3.9792% $3,121 $49,785 $52,906 - $0 0.00000% 14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire 8.8461% 8.8369% $6,939 $110,564 $117,504 - $0 0.00000% 40200 City of Manteca 0.0000% 0.0000% - - 20% $88,128 6.62818% Subtotal 33.1181% 33.1421% $25,979 $414,661 $440,640 100% $440,640 33.14089% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.6391% 1.6394% $1,286 $20,512 $21,797 - $21,797 1.63940% 12601 Manteca Unified Schools 26.9372% 26.9423% $21,131 $337,088 $358,219 - $358,219 26.94194% 13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 3.6467% 3.6475% $2,861 $45,636 $48,496 - $48,496 3.64745% 13201 County Office Of Education 1.3178% 1.2896% $1,034 $16,133 $17,167 - $17,167 1.29113% 16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.1599% 0.1600% $125 $2,002 $2,127 - $2,127 0.15997% 21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.7179% 0.7180% $563 $8,983 $9,546 - $9,546 0.71798% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 5.4166% 5.4116% $4,249 $67,708 $71,957 - $71,957 5.41197% 41100 ERAF 27.0467% 27.0495% $21,216 $338,430 $359,646 - $359,646 27.04928% Subtotal 66.8819% 66.8579% $52,465 $836,491 $888,956 0% $888,956 66.85911% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% $78,444 $1,251,152 $1,329,596 100% $1,329,596 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller. [2] Based on the master tax-sharing agreement between San Joaquin County and the City of Manteca entered into on November 2018.
Post-ERAF
Distribution
Master Tax Share Agreement
Scenario
Property Tax
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Base
Revenue
Existing Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1]
Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
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Table D-2
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Project Assessed Valuation (2020$)
Item
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Single Family Residential $645,000 $127,065,000
Subtotal Residential $127,065,000
Total All Land Uses $127,065,000
av
Source: KDH Group; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-4 for details.
Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
Total Assessed
Value (2020$)
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Table D-3
Dutra Property
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$)
Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percentage per Household
Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] of Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Single Family Residential $645,000 $47,940 $137,000 23% $32,000 income
Source: KDH Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS.
[1] See Table A-4 for detail on estimated values for residential units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey.
City of
Manteca
[2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowner's association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance.
[3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.
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