Specific Plan Area Profile – City of Marysville DRAFT
Prepared for the City of Marysville AECOM
CITY OF MARYSVILLE
DOWNTOWN SPECIFIC
PLAN AREA PROFILE
Specific Plan Area Profile – City of Marysville DRAFT
Prepared for the City of Marysville AECOM
Prepared for:
City of Marysville
Prepared by:
AECOM
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Specific Plan Area Profile – City of Marysville DRAFT
Prepared for the City of Marysville AECOM
Table of Contents
Introduction: Issues and Opportunities.............................................................................................. 5 Project Overview...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Summary of Findings..................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Area Context....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Demographics................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Employment ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Commuting Trends ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Housing Inventory ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Non-Residential Development..............................................................................................................................................................................................6 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................... 8 Area Context....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Activity Centers .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Demographics.............................................................................................................................................10 Population and Household ...................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Household Income....................................................................................................................................................................................................................11 Age.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Educational Attainment..........................................................................................................................................................................................................13 Race and Ethnicity.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................13 Employment.................................................................................................................................................14 Historical Employment Trends............................................................................................................................................................................................14 Employment Clusters..............................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Employment Growth Projections......................................................................................................................................................................................20 Commute Trends........................................................................................................................................22 Housing Inventory......................................................................................................................................25 Land Use and Real Estate Market........................................................................................................27 Multifamily......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 Office................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Retail .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30 Industrial .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................34 Hotel..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Figures
Figure 1. Specific Plan Area and City of Marysville ...................................................................................................................................................8 Figure 2. Points of Interest in Specific Plan Area........................................................................................................................................................9 Figure 3. Historic D Street.......................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Figure 4. Households by Household Incomes, 2022............................................................................................................................................12 Figure 5. Population by Age Group, 2022....................................................................................................................................................................12 Figure 6. Population 25 year or older by Education Attainment......................................................................................................................13 Figure 7. Population by Ethnicity ......................................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 8. City and Specific Plan Area Employment, 2010 and 2019............................................................................................................15 Specific Plan Area Profile – City of Marysville DRAFT
Prepared for the City of Marysville AECOM
Figure 9. Employment by Sector, City, 2019..............................................................................................................................................................15 Figure 10. Largest Employers in the City.....................................................................................................................................................................16 Figure 11. Employment Distribution by Sector in the Specific Plan Area and the Remainder of the City, 2019..................17 Figure 12. Employment Change by Industry, 2010-2019, Sorted by Change in Employee in the MSA...................................17 Figure 13. Change in Total Jobs by Sector in the Specific Plan Area, 2010-2019................................................................................18 Figure 14. City Sector Size, Location Quotients, and Sector Growth (2010-19) ...................................................................................20 Figure 15. Jobs to Household Ratio (2019 Jobs, 2020 Households) .........................................................................................................22 Figure 16. Commuter Patterns, 2019............................................................................................................................................................................22 Figure 17. City Out-Commuter Destination and Direction, 2019...................................................................................................................23 Figure 18. City In-commuter Origination and Direction, 2019.........................................................................................................................23 Figure 19. Mode of Transportation to Work, Workers 16 years and over, 2020.....................................................................................24 Figure 20. Housing Types by Tenure, 2020 ................................................................................................................................................................25 Figure 21. Housing by Year Built .......................................................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 22. Housing Types by Unit Count......................................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 23. Residential Pipeline Project in Specific Plan Area............................................................................................................................27 Figure 24. Multifamily Trends, 2010-2022 ..................................................................................................................................................................28 Figure 25. Office Pipeline......................................................................................................................................................................................................29 Figure 26. Office Trends........................................................................................................................................................................................................30 Figure 27. Retail Pipeline Projects....................................................................................................................................................................................30 Figure 28. Retail Trends, 2010-2022..............................................................................................................................................................................31 Figure 29. Industrial Trends .................................................................................................................................................................................................34 Figure 30. Hotel Property at 803 E St............................................................................................................................................................................35 Figure 31. Hotel Trends..........................................................................................................................................................................................................36 Tables
Table 1. Population and Household Changes, 2010-2020 ...............................................................................................................................10 Table 2. SACOG City and MSA Population and Household Projections 2016-2040..........................................................................10 Table 3. Projected Specific Plan Area Population Growth, 2020-2040 ......................................................................................................11 Table 4. MSA Employment Forecast vs. Historical Growth Rate.....................................................................................................................21 Table 5. Key Housing Metrics, 2020...............................................................................................................................................................................25 Table 6. Multifamily Inventory and Growth, 2010-2022.......................................................................................................................................27 Table 7. Multifamily Deliveries and Absorption, 2010-2022 ..............................................................................................................................27 Table 8. Office Inventory and Growth, 2010-2022.................................................................................................................................................28 Table 9. Office Deliveries and Absorption, 2010-2022 .......................................................................................................................................29 Table 10. Retail Growth and Inventory, 2010-2022................................................................................................................................................30 Table 11. Marysville Retail Leakage Analysis.............................................................................................................................................................33 Table 12. Industrial Inventory and Growth...................................................................................................................................................................34 Table 13. Hotel Inventory and Growth ...........................................................................................................................................................................35 Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
5 Introduction: Issues and Opportunities
Project Overview
AECOM was engaged by the City of Marysville to prepare a Downtown Specific Plan. This area profile is intended to support the process by examining socioeconomic and market trends that guide development. Specifically, the profile:
• Considers the city’s intrinsic strengths and advantages • Explores the potential to capture expected regional growth • Looks at potential new industry clusters
• Evaluates potential for development of different land use categories Summary of Findings
Area Context
The Downtown Specific Plan Area comprises 467 acres of land area that includes the historic commercial core of the community. Marysville is a part of the Yuba City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA, a Census geography), which encompasses Yuba and Sutter counties. The Specific Plan Area is situated near the confluence of the Feather and Yuba Rivers and has a development pattern that reflects the City's history as a stopping point during the Gold Rush for riverboats carrying prospectors from Sacramento and San Francisco. Marysville features cultural destinations and retail and commercial services, and the City is a job center for the Yuba-Sutter area—jobs that for the most part are in or near the Specific Plan Area, as shown in Figure 2.
Demographics
Existing and Future Population: Population and household growth in the city and Specific Plan Area has been slow since 2010. With a population of 2,101 (2020), the Specific Plan Area contributes 16.4 percent of the city’s total of 12,844. Different data sets suggest different potential growth rates for the Specific Plan Area between 2020 to 2040.
Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) forecasts no growth between 2020 and 2040. Applying SACOG’s assumed city-wide growth rate1 to the Specific Plan Area would yield population growth of 97, increasing the Specific Plan Area population from 2,101 to 2,198. Applying SACOG’s assumed MSA-wide growth rate to the Specific Plan Area yields a population growth of 382, increasing the population from 2,101 to 2,483.
Household Income: As of 2022, Specific Plan Area residents have lower median household income, at $41,337, than Marysville as a whole (at $51,624) and the Yuba-Sutter region (at $65,660).
Employment
Growth Trends: The Specific Plan Area is a major contributor to the employment base, with 4,946 of the city’s 8,593 jobs, or 66 percent of the total. These jobs have been resilient. While city employment fell by 13 percent (1,094 jobs) since 2010, the Specific Plan Area retained most of its job count, losing only 1 percent (57 jobs). Significant employment growth occurred in the healthcare, accommodation/food, retail, public administration, and management sectors, whereas the transportation, wholesale, and construction sectors declined significantly. In general, even as the city appears to be in a slight decline as a jobs center, the Specific Plan Area remains an important node for medical, retail, and civic jobs.
1 From SACOG Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (MTP/SCS) 2016-40 (May, 2021) Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
6 Industry Specialization: Four sectors in the city and Specific Plan Area are both fast-growing and show high area concentration, indicating potential for continued future growth. They are Public Administration, Health Care, Educational Services, and Management. These reflect the city’s role as the seat of Yuba County government, as well as the city’s concentration of healthcare uses. A second tier of sectors, which are fast-growing but not concentrated in the Specific Plan Area and city, include restaurants and drinking places, retail trade, and hospitality and accommodation, and arts and entertainment. Growth in these sectors may allow the Specific Plan Area to further develop as a destination that leverages its walkability, historical significance, and sense of place.
Commuting Trends
Ratio of Jobs to Households: The Specific Plan Area has a jobs-to-household ratio of 6.89 whereas the city ratio is
1.56 jobs per household, and the MSA is 0.78 jobs per household. These rates indicate that the city is a jobs center for the region and the Specific Plan Area has the greatest jobs concentration.
Inflow/Outflow: In 2019, of the city's 7,499 jobs, 90.5 percent (6,789) were held by in-commuters, whereas 9.5 percent (710) where held by locals. Of the city's 4,770 working residents, 85.1 percent (4,060) commute out of the city for work. This relatively low share of working residents who work locally indicates an opportunity to better serve incommuters with additional housing options and complementary amenities that are sought after by households.
Area Employment: The employment destinations and in-commuter origination locations are generally located to the west, south, and southeast of Marysville and include the jurisdictions of Yuba City, Sacramento, Roseville, the Linda Census Designated Place (CDP), and the Olivehurst CDP.
Housing Inventory
Specific Plan Area housing units, on average, are older than the city as a whole and the region as a whole as 28 percent of units in the Specific Plan Area and 24 percent in the city have been constructed since 1980, while more than half of the region’s housing units have been constructed since 1980. Within the Specific Plan Area, 27 percent of the housing units were constructed before 1940 compared to 14 percent in the city as a whole and 5 percent in the region.
The residential inventory in the Specific Plan Area is limited today. However, the amenities, walkability, and job concentration in the Specific Plan Area, coupled with low vacancy and upward rent trends could lend support to new residential development. There has been very little multifamily construction in the city, and multifamily development within the Specific Plan Area would help to expand housing options with a housing type that has not been constructed in Marysville in decades.
Non-Residential Development
Office: The Specific Plan Area has a high concentration of office inventory, reflecting the concentration of healthcare uses and the city’s role as the seat of government for Yuba County. The 6.5-percent reduction in city office inventory since 2010, coupled with city-level static rent trends, indicates a lack of private office demand during the period.
However, three of the four sectors projected to grow the fastest in the MSA through 2028 (Educational Services/Health Care/Social Assistance, Professional and Business Services, Government) typically occupy office space, and these sectors are among the city’s largest and most concentrated. While workers are increasingly working from home part-time or full-time as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, office demand in the Specific Plan Area could nonetheless increase.
Retail: The Specific Plan Area has over 1,000,000 retail square feet of leasable space, representing 64.8 percent of the total city inventory. Since 2010, City inventory fell by 20 percent, reflecting general structural decline in the retail sector as e-commerce grows at the expense of brick-and-mortar retail outlets. However, Specific Plan Area retail during this period remained largely stable despite declines elsewhere, reflecting how walkable retail in downtown areas may offer a differentiated and sustainable shopping alternative to e-commerce.
Industrial: The Specific Plan Area accommodates 53.3 percent of all industrial space in the city. The inventory has not changed since 2010, but increasing industrial rents and near full occupancy of industrial space, reflecting broad Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
7 structural trends in industrial warehousing, suggests that additional inventory growth could be supportable. However, given the city’s low location quotient2 for sectors that typically employ industrial space including wholesale and manufacturing, industrial space may not offer the highest and best use for the land compared to uses that support faster-growing sectors.
Hotel: There is just one hotel property and 39 rooms in the Specific Plan Area today. Since 2010, the city lost 102 rooms—fully a third of the total. While hotel average daily rates have recovered since the pandemic and are on an upward trajectory, occupancy remains stubbornly low.
2 Location Quotient is a measure of industrial sector concentration and clustering Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
8 Overview
Area Context
The Specific Plan Area encompasses the heart of downtown Marysville and adjacent districts. Marysville is located in the Yuba City MSA, which includes all of Yuba and Sutter Counties. The Specific Plan Area is situated near the confluence of the Feather and Yuba Rivers, and the development pattern reflects the city’s history as a stopping point during the Gold Rush for riverboats to and from Sacramento and San Francisco. By 1857, Marysville had grown into one of the largest and wealthiest cities in California, a legacy that is reflected in the relatively large inventory of historic buildings.
Today, the city and Specific Plan Area are bisected by two state highways – State Route 70 (SR 70), which is oriented north to south, and SR 20, which is oriented east to west, intersecting with SR 70 in the middle of the Specific Plan Area. SR 20 intersects with SR 99, four miles to the west in neighboring Yuba City.
Figure 1. Specific Plan Area and City of Marysville
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
9 Activity Centers
Marysville is largely built out and served by cultural destinations, shopping areas, festivals and other events, and a concentration of jobs, most of which locate in or near the Specific Plan Area, as shown in Figure 2. A green belt that follows the path of the Feather and Yuba Rivers further defines City boundaries and guides growth patterns.
Figure 2. Points of Interest in Specific Plan Area
The area around the city’s historic D Street hosts most of Marysville’s most significant civic, shopping, and cultural destinations such as City Hall, the Mary Aaron Museum, and Bok Kai Temple.
Figure 3. Historic D Street
Source: CaliSphere University of California and Yuba County Library: https://calisphere.org/item/ark:/13030/kt9870299g/ Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
10 Demographics
Population and Household
Population and household growth in the Specific Plan Area and city has been slow since 2010. As shown in Table 1, population growth has occurred at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1 percent in the Specific Plan Area, 0.6 percent in the city as a whole, and 0.8 percent in the Yuba-Sutter region since 2010. Household growth over the period has been even slower with essentially no growth in the Specific Plan Area, 0.3 percent in the city, and 0.8 percent in the MSA. The Specific Plan Area is more of a jobs center than a residential neighborhood today, accommodating 16.4 percent of the city’s total population with 2,101 residents as of 2020.
Table 1. Population and Household Changes, 2010-2020
Specific Plan Area City MSA
Population
2020 2,101 12,844 181,208
Specific Plan Area Share 100% 16.4% 1.2%
2010-2020 Growth 204 765 14,316
CAGR 1.03% 0.62% 0.83%
Households
2020 718 4,800 60,070
Population/Household 2.93 2.676 3.02
Specific Plan Area Share 100% 15.0% 1.2%
2010-2020 Growth 3 133 4,326
CAGR 0.04% 0.28% 0.75%
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, AECOM
The last round of SACOG projections (the 2020 MTP/SCS), suggest even slower growth at the city level than has been the case historically. As shown in Table 2, SACOG projects city population growth between 2016 and 2040 at a CAGR of 0.23 percent, compared with the 2010-2020 rate of 0.62 percent. For the MSA, SACOG anticipated growth at a CAGR of 0.84 percent, which is nearly identical to the historical rate of 0.83 percent.
Table 2. SACOG City and MSA Population and Household Projections 2016-2040 City MSA
Population
2016 13,116 173,856
2040 13,846 212,401
2016-2040 Change 730 38,545
CAGR 0.23% 0.84%
Source: SACOG
Using SACOG 2016-2040 projections, a range of Specific Plan Area population projections can be developed:
• Low: the medium projection applies SACOG’s 2016-2040 growth rate for the City to the Specific Plan Area. This “fair share” approach assumes the Specific Plan Area will capture its historical (based on 2020) proportion of all expected City growth.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
11 • High: the high projection applies SACOG’s 2016-2040 growth rate for the MSA to the Specific Plan Area. This “fair share” approach assumes the Specific Plan Area will capture its historical (based on 2020) proportion of all expected MSA growth.
As shown in Table 3, the Specific Plan Area Low scenario yields no growth, because ESRI’s projection value is an annual growth rate of 0%. The medium scenario increases housing inventory from 2,101 to 2,198, a population increase of 97, which assumes the Specific Plan Area will grow at the same rate as projected for the City. Finally, the high scenario increases housing inventory from 2,101 to 2,483, a population increase of 382, which assumes the Specific Plan Area will grow at the same rate as projected for the MSA.
The City can influence the capture rate of growth and development in the Specific Plan Area by contributing to improvements in the competitiveness of the area for development and taking actions that lead to the downtown area increasing its share of regional residential and non-residential development.
Table 3. Projected Specific Plan Area Population Growth, 2020-2040 Specific Plan Area Medium
(SACOG
City 2016-40 Rate)
Specific Plan Area High
(SACOG
MSA 2016-40 Rate)
Population
Applied CAGR 0.23% (source: SACOG) 0.84% (source: SACOG) 2020 2,101 2,101
2040 2,198 2,483
2020-2040 Change 97 382
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, SACOG, AECOM
Household Income
Household income measures indicate that city household incomes are lower than the Yuba-Sutter region, and that Specific Plan Area incomes are lower today than in the city as a whole. As shown in Figure 4, 2022 the Specific Plan Area median household income is $41,337, which is 20 percent lower than the city at $51,624 and 37 percent lower than the Yuba-Sutter region (MSA) at $65,660.
By income cohort, the most pronounced variance is at the lowest tier of $15,000 and below, which makes up 27 percent of Specific Plan Area households compared to 16 percent in the city and 10 percent in the MSA. In contrast, approximately 15 percent of Specific Plan Area households earn more than $100,000 a year, compared to 16 percent for the city and 32 percent for the MSA.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
12 Figure 4. Households by Household Incomes, 2022
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, AECOM
Age
In general, the age profile of Specific Plan Area residents skews older compared to the city and MSA. On a cohort basis, the Specific Plan Area’s workforce-aged population (25 to 64 years old) is 55 percent of the total, compared to 50 percent for the city and 50 percent for the MSA. Senior-aged residents (65 years old and greater) contribute 17 percent of the Specific Plan Area population, compared to 14 percent for the city and 15 percent for the MSA. Finally, younger and school-aged residents (below 25 years old) make up 28 percent of the Specific Plan Area, 34 percent of the city, and 34 percent of the MSA.
Figure 5. Population by Age Group, 2022
27%
16% 10%
10%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
11%
17%
12%
21%
25%
19%
8% 12%
12%
10% 12%
16%
4% 3%
9%
1% 1%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SPA City MSA
$200,000+
$150,000 - $199,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$15,000 - $24,999
<$15,000
5% 7% 7%
4%
4% 7% 7%
6% 7% 6%
6% 9% 7%
8% 6%
17%
17% 15%
13%
12% 13%
13%
10% 11%
12% 11% 11%
8% 8% 9%
6% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SPA City MSA
Percentage of Residents
85 years and over
75 to 84 years
65 to 74 years
55 to 64 years
45 to 54 years
35 to 44 years
25 to 34 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
Median:
$41,337
Median:
$51,624
Median:
$65,660
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
13 Source: ESRI Business Analyst, AECOM
Educational Attainment
Educational attainment in the Specific Plan Area is currently lower than that in the city and the MSA, as 22 percent of residents lack a high school degree, compared with 15 percent in the city and 19 percent in the MSA.
Figure 6. Population 25 year or older by Education Attainment Source: ESRI Business Analyst, US Census ACS, AECOM
Race and Ethnicity
Racial and ethnic composition is similar between the Specific Plan Area, city, and MSA. Data indicates that each comprises between 51 percent and 59 percent of Census respondents who identify as white alone. The largest variance is in the Asian alone cohort, which makes up 4 percent of the Specific Plan Area and city population but 14 percent of the MSA.
22%
78%
13% 15%
85%
15%
19%
81%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
No High School Diploma High school graduate or higher Bachelor's degree or higher SPA City MSA
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
14 Figure 7. Population by Ethnicity
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, US Census ACS, AECOM
Employment
Historical Employment Trends
Employment in the city of Marysville was 8,593 in 2019, as shown in Figure 8. The Specific Plan Area is a major contributor to the employment base of the city, contributing 4,946 jobs or 66 percent of the total. However, while city employment fell by 13 percent (1,094 jobs) since 2010, the Specific Plan Area retained most of its job count and fell only 1 percent (57 jobs). Notably, MSA job count increased by 6,863 over the period, indicating that Marysville lost jobs during a period of general employment growth.
55%
6%
3% 4%
1%
19%
12%
59%
5%
3% 4%
0%
15% 14%
51%
3% 2%
14%
0%
17%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White alone Black or African
American alone
American Indian
Alone
Asian alone Pacific Islander
Alone
Some Other
Race Alone
Two or More
Races
SPA City MSA
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
15 Figure 8. City and Specific Plan Area Employment, 2010 and 2019 Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) On a sector basis, Health Care and Social Assistance, Public Administration, and Educational Services are the largest sectors, together totaling 69 percent of city jobs, as shown in Figure 9. Following that, Accommodation and Food Services and Retail Trade add another 13 percent of jobs. All other sectors make up the remaining 18 percent of jobs.
Figure 9. Employment by Sector, City, 2019
Consistent with the sector mix, the largest employers in Marysville are healthcare and educational entities. The Adventist Health and Rideout Medical Center and the Marysville Joint Unified School District together contribute approximately 61 percent of the city’s jobs, as shown in Table 8. Other major employers include the Department of 8,593
5,003
7,499
4,946
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
City SPA
2010 2019
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
6%
7%
16%
22%
31%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Wholesale Trade
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Manufacturing
Information
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Finance and Insurance
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Construction
Administration & Support, Waste Management…
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Educational Services
Public Administration
Health Care and Social Assistance
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
16 Transportation, the United States Postal Service, and the Appeal Democrat. Most major employers are located in or just north of the Specific Plan Area, as shown in Figure 10.
Table 4. Top 15 Employers in the City, 2021
Employer Sector Inside Specific
Plan Area Employees % of City Employees*
Adventist Health & Rideout Health Care and Social Assistance Yes 2,000 41% Marysville Joint Unified School District Educational Services 1,000 20% Department of Transportation Public Administration Yes 200 4% United States Postal Service Transportation and Warehousing Yes 200 4% Appeal-Democrat Information 150 3%
Recology Yuba-Sutter Finance and Insurance 115 2%
Marysville Care & Rehab Ctr Health Care and Social Assistance Yes 100 2% Rideout Emergency Health Care and Social Assistance Yes 100 2% Abraham Lincoln High School Educational Services 90 2%
Yuba County Water Agency Construction 73 1%
Marysville High School Educational Services 70 1%
Save Mart Retail Trade 70 1%
Transdev Transportation and Warehousing 70 1%
Marysville City Public Administration Yes 65 1%
Kynoch Elementary School Educational Services 60 1%
Note: *Total jobs in 2021 are estimated based on the historical CAGR.
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, AECOM
Figure 10. Largest Employers in the City
Figure 11 illustrates how jobs by sector are distributed between Specific Plan Area and the rest of the city. Notably, four of the top five sectors concentrate in the Specific Plan Area (all but Educational Services).
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
17 Figure 11. Employment Distribution by Sector in the Specific Plan Area and the Remainder of the City, 2019 Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Figure 12 below presents employment changes over the last decade. Regionally, several sectors have grown notably quickly led by Health Care, Construction, Accommodation & Food, Retail, and Educational Services.
Areas where city employment growth trends align with that of the MSA include: healthcare, accommodation/food, and retail. Construction, transportation, agriculture, wholesale, manufacturing, professional/scientific, and finance/insurance all grew in the MSA but fell in the City.
Figure 12. Employment Change by Industry, 2010-2019, Sorted by Change in Employee in the MSA Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Transportation and Warehousing
Educational Services
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Information
Manufacturing
Administration & Support, Waste Management and…
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Utilities
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
SPA
Rest of City
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Public Administration
Information
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Utilities
Finance and Insurance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Transportation and Warehousing
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Construction
Health Care and Social Assistance
MSA City SPA
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
18 At the Specific Plan Area level, as shown in Figure 13, significant employment growth occurred in the healthcare, accommodation/food, retail, public administration, and management sectors, whereas the transportation, wholesale, and construction sectors declined significantly. In general, even as the city appears to be in decline as a jobs center, the Specific Plan Area remains an important node for medical, retail, and civic jobs.
Figure 13. Change in Total Jobs by Sector in the Specific Plan Area, 2010-2019 Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Employment Clusters
A location quotient is used to identify sector employment concentration in a geographic area. In general, employment concentration can lead to continued stable industry concentration and growth, as clustering can reinforce supply chain relationships, promote operational efficiencies, and support innovation.
Specifically, a location quotient measures an occupation’s concentration in an area relative to the occupation’s share of national, state, or regional employment. A location quotient of 1.0 indicates the area has the same ratio of an occupation’s share of employment as the comparative geography, while numbers greater than 1.0 indicate regional specialization.
As shown in Table , the Specific Plan Area specializes (i.e., has LQs of greater than 1.0) in three sectors: Public Administration (6.90), Health Care and Social Assistance (2.47), and Management of Companies and Enterprises (1.73). Such job clusters are mostly aligned with city-wide concentrations, which also include educational services.
Table 4. Location Quotient by Sector, 2019
Specific Plan Area
Location Quotient City Location Quotient MSA Location Quotient Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0.03 0.18 4.12 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction - - 2.47
Utilities 0.26 0.17 1.07
Construction 0.30 0.39 1.24
Manufacturing 0.05 0.09 0.67
Wholesale Trade 0.11 0.10 0.87
Retail Trade 0.81 0.67 1.25
Transportation and Warehousing - 0.36 0.93
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Transportation and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Finance and Insurance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Manufacturing
Utilities
Information
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation Management of Companies and Enterprises
Public Administration
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
19 Specific Plan Area
Location Quotient City Location Quotient MSA Location Quotient Information 0.04 0.17 0.12
Finance and Insurance 0.70 0.56 0.54
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0.35 0.29 0.76
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0.37 0.26 0.34 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.73 1.14 0.40
Admin & Support, Waste Management & Remediation 0.34 0.50 0.68 Educational Services 0.16 1.84 1.57
Health Care and Social Assistance 2.47 2.07 1.12
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 0.58 0.44 0.60
Accommodation and Food Services 0.92 0.77 0.83
Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 0.52 0.49 0.64 Public Administration 6.90 5.21 1.86
Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Between 2010 and 2019, Public Administration and Management sectors have expanded and become more concentrated in the Specific Plan Area, while Health Care sector, although still very significant in the area, is becoming less concentrated in the Specific Plan Area. Many industrial-use sectors such as Construction, Wholesales, Transportation and Warehousing, as well as Finance and Information sectors became less concentrated in the Specific Plan Area. This shows that the Specific Plan Area has been a stable job cluster for Health Care, Public Administration, and Management.
As Figure 14 illustrates, the four sectors with the largest LQs in Marysville (Public Administration, Health Care, Educational Services, and Management of Companies and Enterprises) are also among the largest and fastest growing. At the same time, lower-LQ sectors (e.g., real estate and transportation and warehousing) tend to be smaller and slower-growing. In general, this suggests that the city’s most concentrated sectors are becoming stronger, and the least concentrated weaker.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
20 Figure 14. City Sector Size, Location Quotients, and Sector Growth (2010-19) Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Employment Growth Projections
California Employment Development Department (“EDD”) estimates that between 2018 and 2028, the MSA will gain approximately 5,600 jobs across all industrial sectors, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.0 percent. SACOG employment projections anticipate MSA growth of 17,299 jobs between 2016 to 2040, which at a CAGR of 1.13 percent is slightly more than EDD’s projections.
On a sector basis, as shown in Table 4, EDD projects the greatest growth in Transportation and Warehousing (4.4 percent CAGR), Educational and Health Care Services (1.7 percent CAGR), and Professional/Business Services (1.5 percent CAGR). Low-growth sectors include Information (-4.0% CAGR) and Agriculture (-0.2% CAGR), and Mining.
Comparing the LQ values in Figure 14 with the EDD growth projections suggests the potential for Marysville to capture regional growth in sectors where it already has location advantages. These include, as shown in the last column in Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
21 Table 4, Educational Services (Private), Health Care, and Social Assistance, Government, Leisure and Hospitality, and Retail. Of these, all but Retail are forecast to be among the fastest-growing sectors in the MSA.
Table 4. MSA Employment Forecast vs. Historical Growth Rate MSA Employment* Marysville LQ
Industrial Sectors (NAICS) Change
(2018-2028)
CAGR %
(2018-2028)
Historical Growth
(2010-2019)
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 800 4.4% 4.5% Low Educational Services (Private), Health Care, and
Social Assistance 1,500 1.7%
3.9% Health Care
1.2% Education High
Professional and Business Services 500 1.5%
1.8%
Technical Services
Low
Government 1,500 1.2% -1.2% High
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,100 1.1% 1.2% Utilities Low Leisure and Hospitality 500 1.0% 3.0% Medium
Total Jobs 5,600 1.0% 1.8%
Other Services (excludes 814-Private
Household Workers) 100 0.9% NA
Financial Activities 100 0.7% 0.8% Low
Wholesale Trade 100 0.6% 3.0% Low
Retail Trade 300 0.5% 1.9% Medium
Manufacturing 100 0.4% 1.4% Low
Mining, Logging, and Construction 100 0.4%
9.9% Construction
-8.4% Mining
Low
Agriculture -100 -0.2% 1.4% Low
Information -100 -4.0% -8.2% Low
Note: *EDD combines related sectors for the Yuba City MSA Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD), US Census LEHD Survey, AECOM Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
22 Commute Trends
Jobs to Household ratio can provide insight into whether an area functions as a bedroom community, employment destination, or a blend of both. As indicated by Figure 15, the Specific Plan Area has a ratio of 6.89 jobs per household, the city 1.56 jobs per household, and the MSA 0.78 jobs per household. This indicates that the city relative to the MSA functions as a jobs center, as it has nearly twice as many jobs per household. Furthermore, the Specific Plan Area, with a ratio of jobs to households mor than four times higher than the city’s, is a primary employment destination within the city itself.
Figure 15. Jobs to Household Ratio (2019 Jobs, 2020 Households) Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), ESRI, AECOM The inflow-outflow graphic shown in Figure 16 further describes the city’s commuting patterns. In 2019, of the city’s 7,499 jobs, 90.5 percent (6,789) were held by in-commuters, whereas 9.5 percent (710) where held by locals. Of the city’s 4,770 working residents, 85.1 percent (4,060) commute out of the city for work. This relatively low share of working locals who work locally indicates an opportunity to better serve in-commuters with housing options.
Figure 16. Commuter Patterns, 2019
Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), ESRI, AECOM The city’s 4,770 commuting residents travel southwest, south, and southeast for employment, as shown in Figure 17.
Yuba City, just west, is the largest destination with 18 percent, followed by Marysville, Sacramento, and Roseville.
6.89 1.56
0.78 0.00
1.00 2.00
3.00 4.00
5.00 6.00
7.00 8.00
SPA City MSA
6,789 Employed in City,
Live Outside
4,060 Live in City,
Employed Outside
710 Employed
and Live in City
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
23 Figure 17. City Out-Commuter Destination and Direction, 2019 Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), ESRI, AECOM The top 10, in-commuter origination locations for the city’s 7,499 jobs are from the west, south, and southeast of Marysville, as shown in Figure 18. Yuba City is the top residential location of Marysville employees, followed by Marysville, Linda, and Olivehurst.
Figure 18. City In-commuter Origination and Direction, 2019 Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), ESRI, AECOM 47%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
15%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
All Other Locations
West Sacramento
Rancho Cordova
San Francisco
Chico
Olivehurst CDP
Linda CDP
Roseville
Sacramento
Marysville
Yuba City
Top 10 Job Outcommuter Destinations
41%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
5%
7%
9%
24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
All Other Locations
Lincoln
Roseville
Live Oak
Sacramento
Chico
Plumas Lake CDP
Olivehurst CDP
Linda CDP
Marysville
Yuba City
Top 10 Job Incommuter Originations
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
24 Figure 19 below summarizes how employees working within the Specific Plan Area, city, and MSA commute by mode.
As indicated, working residents in the city are more car-dependent than in the MSA and Specific Plan Area residents significantly less so. The Specific Plan Area’s walkable and compact format and status as a job center are the primary factors explaining this tendency.
Figure 19. Mode of Transportation to Work, Workers 16 years and over, 2020 Source: US Census ACS 2020 5-yr Estimates, ArcGIS Pro Business Analyst 68%
85%
79%
11%
8%
12%
6%
1%
1%
14%
3%
6%
SPA
City
MSA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Drove alone Carpooled Public transportation (excluding taxicab) Walked Bicycle Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means
Worked at home
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
25 Housing Inventory
According to US Census (ACS 2020) estimates and shown in Table 5, the Specific Plan Area has a total of 800 housing units contributing 16 percent of all housing units in the city. Specific Plan Area Median home value, at $220,625, is close to the city median home value of $226,600. Specific Plan Area and city home values are lower than in the MSA, at $288,900.
Table 5. Key Housing Metrics, 2020
Specific Plan Area City MSA
Housing Breakdown
Owner-Occupied 172 2,053 35,356
% of City/MSA 8% 6%
Renter-Occupied 565 2,519 23,664
% of City/MSA 22% 11%
Total Housing Units 800 5,059 63,026
% of City/MSA 16% 8%
Housing Costs
Median House Value $220,625 $226,600 $288,900
Source: ACS 2020 5yr
With 71 percent renters, the Specific Plan Area has a higher share of renters than either the City (50 percent) or MSA (38 percent), as shown in Figure 20.
Figure 20. Housing Types by Tenure, 2020
Source: ACS 2020 5yr
Specific Plan Area housing units, on average, are older than the city’s and the MSA’s as shown in Figure 21. While more than half of the MSA’s housing units have been constructed since 1980, only 28 percent of units in the Specific Plan Area and 24 percent in the City were constructed since 1980. Within the Specific Plan Area, 27 percent of housing units date before 1940 compared to 14 percent in the City and 5 percent in the MSA. 22%
41%
56%
71%
50%
38%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SPA
City
MSA
Ownered-Occupied Renter-Occupied
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
26 Figure 21. Housing by Year Built
In addition, compared with the city and the MSA, the Specific Plan Area has a smaller share of single-family houses and a greater share of multifamily housing, as shown in Figure 22.
Figure 22. Housing Types by Unit Count
21%
6%
7%
13%
18%
14%
14%
15%
26%
17%
10%
15%
12%
9%
12%
9%
10%
9%
5%
27%
14%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SPA
City
MSA
Built 2014 or later Built 2010 to 2013 Built 2000 to 2009 Built 1990 to 1999 Built 1980 to 1989 Built 1970 to 1979 Built 1960 to 1969 Built 1950 to 1959 Built 1940 to 1949 Built 1939 or earlier 41%
55%
72%
3%
5%
4%
24%
13%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SPA
City
MSA
1, detached 1, attached 2 3 or 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 or more Mobile home Boat, RV, van, etc.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
27 Land Use and Real Estate Market
Multifamily
Inventory. The Specific Plan Area currently has a relatively small multifamily residential market with only 227 multifamily units in 2022, making up 9.8 percent of all multifamily units in the city. Over the past 10 years, the Specific Plan Area has experienced limited growth, adding no new multifamily units to its inventory despite population expansion. The City does, however, have multifamily residential development under construction as of the writing of this report, and is reviewing development applications within the Specific Plan Area for additional development.
Table 6. Multifamily Inventory and Growth, 2010-2022
2010 2022 Change CAGR (%)
MSA 8,927 9,060 133 0.1%
City 2,316 2,328 12 0.0%
% of MSA 25.9% 25.7% 9.0%
Specific Plan Area 227 227 0 0.0%
% of City 9.8% 9.8% 0.0%
Source: Costar, AECOM
Deliveries and Absorption. From 2010-2022, there were no units delivered to the Specific Plan Area. Deliveries in the City and MSA were modest, as well, with 12 in the city and 59 units in the MSA during this period.
Table 7. Multifamily Deliveries and Absorption, 2010-2022 Deliveries Absorption
Total Unit Average Unit Per Year Total Unit Average Unit Per Year MSA 133 10.2 399 30.7
City 12 0.9 59 4.5
Specific Plan Area 0 - 4 0.3
Source: Costar, AECOM
Recent Development. The only new project in the Specific Plan Area since 2004 is at 1300 Ramirez Street, as shown in Figure 23. The 72-unit project, an all-affordable project, broke ground in January 2022.
Figure 23. Residential Pipeline Project in Specific Plan Area Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
28 Rent and Vacancy. With $2.09/SF asking rent in 2022, the multifamily units in the Specific Plan Area have substantially higher rent premium, compared to $1.27/SF in the city and $1.31/SF in the MSA. This is likely due to proximity to job destinations and relatively better non-vehicular access and mobility options. Between 2010 to 2022, rents gradually increased while vacancy rates fell. Gradually increasing rents and low vacancy in the Specific Plan Area suggest a potentially favorable environment for new multifamily residential development.
Figure 24. Multifamily Trends, 2010-2022
Source: Costar, AECOM
Office
Inventory. The Specific Plan Area is a significant source of office space with 740,593 square feet representing 82 percent of the city’s total inventory and 30 percent of the MSA’s total inventory. This concentration of office area reflects the city’s high concentration of medical uses as well as its role as the seat of government for Yuba County.
Since 2010, as shown in Table 8, office inventory MSA declined by 1.2 percent in the MSA, by 6.5 percent in the city, and by 9.2 percent in the Specific Plan Area.
Table 8. Office Inventory and Growth, 2010-2022
2010 2022 Change Change (%)
MSA 2,464,586 2,435,501 -29,085 -1.2%
City 994,254 902,858 -91,396 -6.5%
% of MSA 40.3% 37.1% 314.2%
Specific Plan Area 791,989 740,593 -51,396 -9.2%
% of City 79.7% 82.0% 56.2%
Deliveries and Absorption. All of the city’s and most of the MSA’s delivery of new office space since 2010 occurred in the Specific Plan Area, as shown in Table 9. The new inventory consists of a 265,126 square-foot building for the California Department of Transportation, shown in Figure 25.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Vacancy (%)
Asking Rent ($/SF/Mouth)
SPA Rent
City Rent
MSA Rent
SPA Vacancy
City Vacancy
MSA Vacancy
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
29 Table 9. Office Deliveries and Absorption, 2010-2022 Deliveries Absorption
Total SF Avg SF Per Year Total SF Avg SF Per Year
MSA 325,724 25,055.7 1,661,855 127,835.0
City 265,126 20,394.3 890,056 68,465.8
Specific Plan Area 265,126 20,394.3 687,569 52,889.9
Source: Costar, AECOM
Recent Development. The Specific Plan Area’s most recent office development is the California Department of Transportation’s 265,126-square-foot state office building in 2010, as shown in Figure 25.
Figure 25. Office Pipeline
Rent and Vacancy. Office rents in the city and Specific Plan Area fluctuated but have not grown since 2010, while MSA rent grew steadily over the period, as shown in Figure 26. At the same time, vacancy fell in all sub-areas to a very low level. The trends indicated that the Specific Plan Area market has been somewhat static and at equilibrium.
However, as shown in the employment sector forecasts in Table 4, three of the four sectors projected to grow the fastest in the MSA through 2028 (Educational Services/Health Care/Social Assistance, Professional and Business Services, Government) typically occupy office space, and these sectors, as shown in Figure 14, are among the city’s largest and most concentrated. Forecast sector expansion should thus drive additional office demand within the Specific Plan Area.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
30 Figure 26. Office Trends
Retail
Inventory. The majority of the city’s retail area, as shown in Table 10, is in the Specific Plan Area with 1,035,806 square feet reflecting 64.8 percent of the city’s overall total. Since 2010, the city retail inventory fell significantly by 406,299 square feet (20 percent), while Specific Plan Area retail grew slightly. The continued Specific Plan Area stability illustrates how, during a period of structural retail decline, shopping environments in downtowns and other walkable districts offer a differentiated and potentially sustainable retail experience.
Table 10. Retail Growth and Inventory, 2010-2022
2010 2022 Change CAGR (%)
MSA 7,142,446 6,922,176 -220,270 -0.3%
City 2,003,984 1,597,685 -406,299 -1.9%
% of MSA 28.1% 23.1% 184.5%
Specific Plan Area 1,033,665 1,035,806 2,141 0.0%
% of City 51.6% 64.8% -0.5%
Source: Costar, AECOM
Recent Development. In the last five years, the Specific Plan Area has seen three new retail projects introduced and a fourth proposed, as seen in Figure 27. They are a convenience store, a car service, and fast-food restaurant.
Figure 27. Retail Pipeline Projects
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Vacancy (%)
Gross Rent ($/SF/Year)
SPA Rent
City Rent
MSA Rent
SPA Vacancy
City Vacancy
MSA Vacancy
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
31 Rent and Vacancy. Between 2010 and 2022, as shown in Figure 28, retail vacancy fell in all subareas to below 3 percent, essentially indicating full occupancy. Despite the tightening inventory, retail rents fluctuated but were essentially static over the period. This further illustrates the static equilibrium resulting from structural decline in the sector.
Figure 28. Retail Trends, 2010-2022
Source: Costar, AECOM
Retail Leakage. Leakage occurs if an area registers lower retail sales than its population would typically demand, indicating that residents are shopping elsewhere. Leakage can occur where there is insufficient retail space to meet consumer demand or when other outlets out-compete local outlets. Conversely, an area can capture a higher share of regional sales if it has retail supply that outcompetes supply outside the area and attracts additional customers and retail sales. Where local retail demand exceeds supply, the variance reflects leakage, and where supply exceeds demand, the variance indicates capture.
Table 11 estimates leakage and capture in Marysville on a sector basis. Overall, ESRI Business Analyst estimates that Marysville enjoys a capture of approximately $36 million in retail spending, $26 million of which is in general retail and $9 million of which is for food and drink. The largest capture sectors include Heath and Personal Care, Gasoline Stations, and Food Service/Drinking Places, reflecting the city’s success in attracting visitors. Areas of leakage, indicating potentially under-served areas, include Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, Clothing or Clothing Accessories Stores, and General Merchandise Stores. However, because of the location requirements of these categories, such as a preference for a freeway off-ramp location and large site with a large parking field, it is unlikely that this leakage should be addressed in the Specific Plan Area.
The city has an opportunity to build on this critical mass of retail offerings and dining establishments in the Specific Plan Area. The presence of a multifamily market and continued growth of housing opportunities at a diversity of densities and price points brings new consumers for retail, entertainment, and food and drink establishments
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Vacancy (%)
NNN Rent ($/SF/Year)
SPA Rent
City Rent
MSA Rent
SPA Vacancy
City Vacancy
MSA Vacancy
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
32 downtown. New businesses are often drawn to districts with diverse housing and easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment because these amenities attract employees at all levels of income and stages of their careers. The concentration of compatible uses in and around downtown could help Marysville attract more businesses and capture an even greater proportion of the region’s economic growth.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
33 Table 11. Marysville Retail Leakage Analysis
Retail Sector Demand Supply Leakage/(Surplus)
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $22,983,060 $14,699,727 $8,283,333 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $3,925,516 $1,528,863 $2,396,653 Electronics & Appliance Stores $3,898,774 $4,748,310 ($849,536) Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply
Stores
$6,158,851 $8,237,011 ($2,078,160)
Food & Beverage Stores $18,257,752 $17,316,201 $941,551 Health & Personal Care Stores $7,781,448 $23,545,237 ($15,763,789) Gasoline Stations $10,030,523 $44,731,288 ($34,700,765) Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $7,526,182 $3,128,140 $4,398,042 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music
Stores
$3,373,329 $781,094 $2,592,235
General Merchandise Stores $18,484,035 $13,875,357 $4,608,678 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,148,882 $3,080,690 $1,068,192 Non-store Retailers $3,168,828 $204,287 $2,964,541
Food Services & Drinking Places $11,611,059 $21,524,645 ($9,913,586) Total Retail Trade $109,737,179 $135,876,206 ($26,139,027) Total Food & Drink $11,611,059 $21,524,645 ($9,913,586) Total $121,348,238 $157,400,851 ($36,052,613)
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, AECOM
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
34 Industrial
Inventory. As shown in Table 12, the Specific Plan Area currently provides 53.3 percent of all industrial area in the City, or 409,101 square feet. In all three sub-areas, inventory has largely remained constant since 2010, growing slightly in the MSA and declining slightly in the city and Specific Plan Area.
Table 12. Industrial Inventory and Growth
2010 2022 Change CAGR (%)
MSA 9,334,434 9,372,512 38,078 0.0%
City 789,117 767,855 -21,262 -0.2%
% of MSA 8.5% 8.2% -55.8%
Specific Plan Area 429,101 409,101 -20,000 -0.4%
% of City 54.4% 53.3% 94.1%
Rent and Vacancy. As shown in Figure 29, since 2010, industrial rents in all three sub-areas have grown, while vacancy has fallen, indicating that additional inventory growth, after a long period of static growth, may be supportable by the market.
Figure 29. Industrial Trends
Source: Costar, AECOM
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Vacancy (%)
All Service Type Rent ($/SF/Year)
SPA Rent
City Rent
MSA Rent
SPA Vacancy
City Vacancy
MSA Vacancy
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
35 Hotel
Inventory. The Specific Plan Area has limited hotel inventory with one property and 39 rooms. Since 2010, the Specific Plan Area added two rooms while the city lost 102 rooms, a full third of total city inventory. The trend has been essentially static in the MSA, too, with a net change in two hotel rooms between 2010 and 2022.
Table 13. Hotel Inventory and Growth
2010 2022 Change CAGR (%)
MSA (Hotel Rooms) 914 916 2 0.0%
City (Hotel Rooms) 302 200 -102 -3.4%
% of MSA 33.0% 21.8% -5,100.0%
Specific Plan Area (Hotels) 39 39 0 0.0%
% of City 12.9% 19.5% 0.0%
Source: Costar, AECOM
Recent Development. The Specific Plan Area has seen no hotel developments constructed since 1945. Currently, there is one hotel along the main corridor of the City and the Specific Plan Area (Figure 30), a 2-star Motel 6.
Figure 30. Hotel Property at 803 E St.
Room Rate and Occupancy. In the pre-COVID-19 period, the Specific Plan Area and the greater region saw stable Average Daily Rate (ADR) growth. After the pandemic lull, rates have started to pick up again, although occupancy remains stubbornly low.
Marysville Downtown Specific Plan Area Profie
Prepared for: City of Marysville AECOM
36 Figure 31. Hotel Trends
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 12 Mo Occupancy (%)
ADR ($/Room/Night)
SPA ADR
City ADR
MSA ADR
SPA Occupancy
City Occupancy
MSA Occupancy