January 2021
STOCKTON
Prof. Jason Corburn & Amanda Fukutome
UC Berkeley, Center for Global Healthy Cities
2018-2020 Evaluation
Table of Contents
Figures
Page
3 Overview of Learning & Evaluation Report
5 AP Stockton: By the Numbers 2018-19
6 Stockton Background
12 Advance Peace Stockton 2018-19 Start-up
13 AP Stockton, 2018-19 Timeline in Brief
25 AP Stockton 2018-19: Key Accomplishments Summary
26 Advance Peace Stockton, Neighborhood Change Agent Data 7 Figure 1. Stockton All Homicides, 1985-2018
9 Figure 2. Stockton Firearm Homicides 2016-2018
9 Figure 3. Stockton Firearm Activity: January-June, 2017-2019 10 Figure 4. Stockton Firearm Activity July 2018-June 2019, by Quarter 10 Figure 5. Stockton Homicide, Firearm Homicide & Firearm Assaults, January- September 2017, 2018 & 2019
28 Figure 6. AP Stockton, Oct. 2018-Sept. 2019, Conflicts Mediated by Type & Month 29 Figure 7. AP Stockton, Oct. 2018-Sept. 2019 : Total Number of NCA Hours by Activity 29 Figure 8. AP Stockton Oct.2018-Sept. 2019, NCA Outreach & Engagements by Month 30 Figure 9. AP Stockton Year 1: Total Number of NCA Outreach and Engagements 31 Figure 10. AP Stockton Year 1: Total Hours of NCA Outreach and Engagements Stockton
Advance Peace Stockton 2018-20 Evaluation Report
Authors:
Jason Corburn, PhD
Amanda Fukutome
Contact: [email protected]
Report Design: Marisa Asari
Citation: Corburn, J. & Fukutome, A. 2021. Advance
Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report. Center
for Global Healthy Cities, Berkeley, CA. www.
healthycities.berkeley.edu
Acknowledgments:
Thanks to all AP staff, fellows, community members
& reviewers for valuable input. Special recognition
3 Advance Peace (AP) Stockton was
launched after endorsement by the
Stockton City Council and Mayor Michael
Tubbs in January 2018. The program
spent the first six months establishing
its community presence and then hiring,
training and deploying staff. The first year
of Advance Peace Stockton was a start-up
phase that occurred before intensive street
outreach and recruitment of the first class
of its signature Peacemaker Fellowship.
This report focuses on documenting
achievements by the AP Stockton team and
impacts they have had on gun crime and
on the well-being of those at the center of
gun violence in the city. The report covers
the intervention period from October 2018-
September 2020.
This report was drafted by Professor Jason
Corburn, from the UC Berkeley, School of
Public Health and Department of City &
Regional Planning, along with research
staff from the UCB Learning and Evaluation
(L&E) team. The UCB L&E team focuses on
gathering and analyzing data to support the
development and effectiveness of Advance
Peace. By emphasizing learning, the UCB
team aims to feed-back data to Advance
Peace in a timely way and to center the
voices and experiences of those working and
living with gun violence.
The findings of this report reflect a mixed
set of methods employed by the UCB
team. First, observation and interview data
were gathered with AP Program Managers,
outreach staff, AP leadership, members
of community-based organizations in
Stockton and the Mayor. Second, we used
Stockton Police Department data on all gun
homicides (187) and assaults (254) before
and during the AP Stockton intervention. We
examined if the number of gun homicides
and assaults changed during the 24-month
period compared to previous years. Third, we
utilized weekly activity logs and case reports
from AP Stockton, Neighborhood Change
Agents (NCAs), which captured all their
street outreach activities, including conflict
mediations. NCAs are the street outreach
workers who engage those at the center of
gun violence in Stockton on a daily basis.
Fourth, we reviewed all data pertaining to
the AP Peacemaker Fellows, or the key clients
of AP Stockton. The Fellows are the heart of
the AP program, since they are the people at
the center of gun violence in Stockton, can be
both perpetrators and victims of gun crime,
and were the focus of AP outreach activities
over the 24 month period.
COVID-19 Impact in 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant
impact on AP Stockton work in 2020. AP
Stockton outreach workers were deemed
essential workers during the pandemic. This
meant that they not only had to perform
street outreach to stop gun homicides, but
Advance Peace Stockton: 2020 Learning & Evaluation
4 they also spent time delivering essential goods
to families in Stockton while maintaining
social distancing practices. The AP Stockton
NCA team had to learn about COVID-19 and
how to use personal protective equipment.
This placed new demands on the outreach
workers to ensure they protected themselves
and others in the community. Social distancing
protocols and closures of businesses, schools,
non-profits, government and community
centers, created a challenge for NCAs to
provide some services to their fellows. With
young people not in school, with households
not always conducive to staying-at-home and
without places to go, the pandemic response
made the work of AP Stockton outreach
workers more challenging. As we document
below, AP Stockton remained active and
vigilant during the pandemic, finding new ways
to engage their clients and build trusting and
supportive relationships.
What is Advance Peace?
Advance Peace, is a national 501c3 non-profit,
that works in multiple cities to reduce gun
violence and promote community healing.
Advance Peace Stockton is located on East
Main Street .
Advance Peace reduces urban gun violence
by engaging with the people most impacted
by cyclical & retaliatory gun violence. The
engagement is done by a team of formerly
incarcerated, street outreach workers. The
outreach workers, called Neighborhood
Change Agents (NCAs) engage high-risk
individuals on a daily basis across the entire
city, providing mentoring, helping mediate
conflicts, manage anger, and offering support
for day-to-day coping. NCAs will also make
referrals to service providers to ensure
people at the center of gun violence gain
access to services or resources that they
need. Ultimately, Advance Peace identifies
the most at-risk people and enrolls them
in an intensive, 18-month, program called
the Peacemaker Fellowship.® During
this program, fellows are offered daily
mentorship & work with their NCA to draft
a Life Management Action Plan (LifeMAP).
The LifeMAP creates goals for the 18 months.
Fellows also participate in group life-skills
classes, received social services, elder
mentorship, opportunities for internships
and travel, and a milestone allowance if they
demonstrate significant progress toward
their LifeMAP goals. Advance Peace puts
those most acutely impacted by gun violence
at the center of developing solutions, and
focuses on healing the individual & supporting
community change.
5 ADVANCE PEACE STOCKTON IMPACT
October 2018- September 2020
11,911 116
1011,021
484 44
34 350
94% Fellows
71% Fellows
Outreach
Engagements
Shootings
Responded To
Service
Referrals
Hours Mediating
Community
Conflicts
Gun Violence
Interruptions
Fellows enrolled
in Peacemaker
Fellowship
Average number
of engagements
each Fellow
received over 2
years
are alive & free
no new gun arrests
Conflicts
Mediated
After Hours
Each Fellow
received an
average of
hours of social
service referrals
48 GUN CRIME IMPACTS
21% Reduction in Gun
Homicides & Assaults city-wide
compared to 2015-18 averages
47% Reduction in gun
homicides & assaults in
Council District 1
20% Reduction in gun
homicides city-wide
FELLOW IMPACTS
ENGAGEMENTS
6 7
In 2012, the City of Stockton was the 10th
most dangerous city in America, reporting
1,417 violent crimes per 100,000 persons & 22
murders per 100,000. However, gun homicides
and assaults have continued to decline since
this peak period. Figures 1 and 2 offer a brief
snap-shot of firearm homicides in Stockton
since 2015 and assaults, all homicides and
firearm homicides. The good news is that all
homicides and firearm homicides remain below
recent peak period of 2017.
Stockton Gun Homicide Data
Figure 2. Stockton Crime Activity: 2015 - 2020*
Figure 1. Stockton Firearm Homicides 2015-2020
*2020 is only January - September 2020
8 Advance Peace Stockton:
Firearm Crime Analysis
This report used Stockton Police Department
data from 2015 to 2020 to analyze the change
in firearm homicides and assaults before and
after the Advance Peace Stockton program
began. We considered the intervention
period for AP Stockton from October 2018
through September 2020. We computed
monthly, quarterly and annual numbers of
crimes during this time period. We present
data for the entire City of Stockton and each
City Council District.
For the first comparison, shown in Table 1,
we calculated the number of gun homicides
and assaults (total) for the two-year period
from October 2015 through September
2017. This is what we defined as the pre-
intervention, 24 month baseline period. We
then compared the number of gun crimes
for this ‘baseline’ or pre-intervention period
to the 24 month AP Stockton intervention
period from October 2018 to September
2020.
A second analysis used historical data to
create annual means of gun homicides and
assaults before and after the AP Stockton
intervention. The pre-intervention mean
(or average) included gun assaults and
homicides for three, 12 month periods,
from October to September, for 2015-2018;
October 2015- September 2016, October
2016- September 2017, and October
2017-September 2018. For the ‘treatment’ or
intervention period, we calculated the mean
number of gun homicides and gun assaults
for the two 12-month AP intervention
periods , namely October 2018 through
September 2019 and October 2019 through
September 2020. We created this second 12
month analysis since most municipalities
and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), issues crime
data on an annual basis.
Crime Analysis Findings
We found that for the 2-year intervention
period from 2018-2020 compared to the prior
24 month period in Stockton:
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
21% citywide.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
47% in Council District 1.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
24% in Council District 2.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
3% in Council District 3.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
24% in Council District 4.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
19% in Council District 5.
• Gun homicides and assaults declined by
18% in Council District 6.
We also found for the annual average of gun
homicides and assaults also declined during
the AP Stockton program period compared to
the annual averages from 2015 through 2018.
Specifically, we found that the 12 month
average for gun homicides and assaults
declined by 21% citywide, with council
districts 1 and 2 seeing the largest annual
declines (Map below).
9 Area 10/2015- 09/2017
(total number)
Advance Peace
Stockton Program
Period,
10/2018-09/2020
(total number)
% Change
Citywide 533 419 -21.39%
City Council District 1 45 24 -46.67%
City Council District 2 67 51 -23.88%
City Council District 3 64 62 -3.13%
City Council District 4 78 59 -24.36%
City Council District 5 173 141 -18.50%
City Council District 6 98 80 -18.37%
Table 1. 2 -Year (24 month) gun homicides and assaults: Stockton Advance Peace, 2018-20 10 Stockton, CA: Percent Change in Annual Gun Homicides & Assaults, 2015-2020*
*Based on Oct. - Sept. average
11 Figure 3. Stockton Firearm Activity October 2018-September 2020, by Quarter In some communities, there is a seasonality to gun crimes. Therefore, we present the quarterly firearm homicides and assaults for Stockton during the Advance Peace intervention from October 2018 through September 2020 (Figure 3). Each quarter represents a three month period. These data suggest that in the third quarter of 2020, there was a 366% increase in gun homicides (3 to 14).
Firearm Homicide
Firearm Assault
12 Figure 4. Stockton Firearm Activity October 2018-September 2020, by Quarter We also plotted all firearm homicides (Figure 4) and firearm assaults (Figure 5) per quarter from October 2015 through September 2020. From 2015 through 2018 before the Advance Peace Stockton program, there was an average of 10 gun homicides each quarter in the city. After the Advance Peace Stockton program began in October 2018, the quarterly average dropped to 8, resulting in a 20% reduction in gun homicides and likely saving eight lives. -20%
Similarly, we calculated the quarterly firearm assaults in Stockton from 2015 through 2020 (Figure 5), and found that from 2015 through September 2018, there were about 52 gun as- saults per quarter in Stockton, but after the AP intervention there were about 44.5 per quarter.
The AP Stockton program has contributed to a 16% reduction in quarterly gun assaults in the city.
13 Pre-Advance Peace Stockton gun
homicide victims
(10/2015 to 09/2018)
Post-Advance Peace Stockton
gun homicide victims
(10/2018 to 09/2020)
% Female 10% 19%
% Male 90% 81%
% Black 33% 31%
% Hispanic 41% 44%
Table 3. Annual gun homicides Victims: Gender and Ethnicity Figure 5. Stockton Firearm Activity October 2018-September 2020, by Quarter -16%
Using data on victimization, we found that the percentage of female victims of gun homicides increased during the AP Stockton program period while the number of male victims de- creased. There was also a slight change in the percentage of African-American victims versus Latinos (Table 3).
14 The Peacemaker Fellowship: Stockton Fellows
At the heart of the Advance Peace program is the
Peacemaker Fellowship. The Fellowship enrolls
the most likely perpetrators of gun violence
in Stockton, as determined by comprehensive
data analyses, referrals from key partners,
street knowledge of the outreach workers, and
other information provided to Advance Peace
leadership. These people at the center of gun
violence in Stockton may or may not be affiliated
with a specific street gang, but they are known
to be influential, might be victims of gun crime
themselves and most are not being engaged by
any social service institution set-up to address gun
violence in the community.
Once enrolled, a Fellow works with their NCA
mentor to draft an individualized Life Management
Action Plan (LifeMAP). The LifeMAP acts as both
a mechanism for ensuring the fellow defines their
own healing needs (i.e., ‘for them, by them’) and
is the ‘social contract’ that a strong, caring, and
consistent adult is willing to take a risk and believe
in them. Another aspect of the Fellowship, and
built into most fellow’s LifeMAP goals, is joining
group learning sessions, or what AP calls ‘life-skills’ classes. These ‘classes’ are dialogues or healing
circles facilitated by an NCA or a professional
therapist, where groups of fellows focus on a
particular topic over a series of weeks or months,
and typically include discussions of internalized,
institutional and systemic racism, valuing culture
and the history of people of color, and identifying
how institutions such as schools and banks
discriminate against the poor and people of color.
By valuing culture and identifying sources of
suffering and community trauma, the life-skills
classes offer opportunities for group healing.
The NCAs also refer their Fellows to social services,
such as substance abuse, anger management and
cognitive behavioral therapy. AP outreach workers
create the opportunities for their fellows to access
these proven approaches for addressing trauma
and moving toward healing, many of which had
previously been denied to most of their young
clients. What differentiates AP is that the mentor
will often accompany the Fellow to the service
provider to ensure they receive the care and
support they need.
Another key offering of the Peacemaker Fellowship
is what AP calls ‘transformative travel. ’ In most
cases, fellows have never traveled outside their
city and many rarely leave their neighborhoods.
Yet, in order to take advantage of the travel
opportunity, the fellow must agree to travel with
another fellow who happens to be one of their
rivals. This interaction is frequently facilitated by
groups of outreach workers.
Additional features of the Fellowship include
opportunities for paid internships, participating
in an ‘elder circle’ of community members, and
qualifying for ‘milestone’ financial allowance of up
to $1,000 a month. The fellows become milestone
‘eligible’ after committing to at least six months of
engagement and relationship building with their
mentor. Fellows are milestone allowance eligible
also after their NCA mentor determines they
are working on self-healing, regularly attending
group life-skills classes, making progress on their
LifeMAP goals, and demonstrating a commitment
to peacefully resolving conflicts that may have
previously been addressed using guns.
15 The milestone allowance acts as an incentive to
‘stay the course’ and we observed that the fellow
use the allowance for basic needs, like rent, food,
diapers and child care.
The Advance Peace Stockton outreach team and
leadership spent over six months identifying and
recruiting these highly influential individuals.
Most individuals AP identified for the Fellowship
were reluctant and skeptical at the outset. As one
NCA described it:
It ain’t like these people are easy to find, want
to be found or are looking for help. The fact that
they are still in the streets means they are elusive.
And, for good reasons they don’t trust nobody.
We can’t just show up and offer them a fellowship.
Most of them are like ‘F-you and your F-ing
program. Get the F-k out of my face. I don’t need
that shit. ’
One AP NCA described their recruitment process in
this way:
The ones that jump in the car the first or second
time ain’t the ones we are after. Those acting out
with guns, we see it as a cry for help. But where
we are from, seeking help is seen as weak. We let
them know they ain’t alone. I been there too, but
spent years in prison for my mistakes. We offer
care, trust and unselfish support. Something they
ain’t never seen before.
FELLOW PROFILE DATA
Information on each fellow is gathered as
they enter the program. Their NCA mentor
will ask them a series of questions to better
understand the experiences they have had and
the challenges they may be facing to avoid
using guns. The NCA has already built a trusting
relationship with the fellow before they enter
the program, so the outreach worker is the
most trusted professional to gather data on the
fellows.
Typical background questions that Advance
Peace gathers about each fellow is their age,
ethnicity and whether or not they are in school;
if they are a parent, employed or have a high-
school diplomna/GED; if they have ever been
in the foster care system, homeless, lived in a
shelter and if they are currently receiving social
services.
The criminal backgrounds of the fellows is
also captured, including information on their
gang affiliation, if any, if they have had a prior
incarceration, and a gun arrest. Information on
their parole or probation status is also collected.
AP also determines if the fellow has been shot
at, has a gun injury, has witness a gun homicide,
has ever been physically assaulted, or if a family
member has ever beeen a victim of a gun crime
and/or incarcerated. The NCAs also document
if the Fellow is or was a participant in any other
social or community program aimed at reducing
gun crime, such as Ceasefire.
16 44% Black
12% Hispanic
or Latino
3% Other Race or
Ethnicity
100% Male
21% were on
Probation 0% Identified as
Former Ceasefire
Participants
0% Received
Social Services
Before Program
32% Previously
Incarcerated
15% Previously
Shot
30% are Parents
94% of Fellows
Are Still Alive
74% Completed
a LifeMAP
71% Had
No New
Arrests
29% Were
Arrested While in
the Program
12% Shot
While
in the
Program
6% Killed by
Firearms While in
the Program
34 Fellows
17 Impacts
Daily Check-Ins
Cognitive
Behavioral
Therapy
Social Service
Navigation
Short-& Long term
Goal-Setting
Trusting Adult
Relationships
Conflict
resolution
Skills
Job Training &
Preparation
OG Network
• 14 referrals
for family
supports/
counseling
• 46 seprate
internship &
work referrals
• 38% got a
new job while
in Fellowship
34 Fellows
• 7 DMV ID/
licenses & 2
GEDs
• 5 obtained
substance abuse/
addiction services
• 4 mental health
• 4 stable housing
• 10 court/parole
navigation
During the AP Stockton program, each fellow received an average of:
• 30 referrals and 47 hours of support from the NCAs
• 350 engagements and 316 hours of face-to-face engagements by NCAs What some fellows had to say:
“They had me from day one. Parole was just giving me classes, but nothing worked. I was willing to put in the work. Determination. They got me into a program through AP . Now I’m a flooring apprentice. It helped me always be on time. AP was there everyday. Checking on me. What can we help you with? Constant. AP was like, we got you. They helped me get three job offers. ” “I was down 11 years. I did the streets. People left. They helped me realize what I want in my life. I need to be accountable. I’m not my biggest enemy. Not getting in the way of my success no more. ” “They helped me get a bank account. Got me some credit. So, when Corona hit, I had back-up. AP put me in a position to win. ”
18 B is working for the union and his hours slow
down, Now he is looking for a job. He will be
increasing his knowledge by using some of his
tools.
Keeping close eye on M. Seems like he is looking
for a reason to explode in dealing with the
murder of his friend at the mall. I have been
telling him to stay safe and at home, yet they
(him and friends) find their way up to mall to
hangout at makeshift memorial for their fallen
friend.
L was just released from prison. This dude is an
influential member, one of the leaders of a gang
out here called American Street. He was about
to start getting back into the things. We brought
him into the program. He was fully involved and
open to any ideas, lessons and everything that
we’re doing. And now, he’s doing so good that
they took him off parole early. He’s married, got
a job, own house, and all of this in a span of a
year.
P is different. We talk and he has been to the
office. He works and hustles so he doesn’t really
rely on the program for anything. I just try to
stay connected to him and keep the bridge
intact as he is an influential player in his gang.
He knows me from my days in the street and has
given me his word to allow me the opportunity
to meditate any issues his boys are involved in
before escalation on their part. So I try to speak
to him daily.
I took fellow to a 2nd appointment to Worknet.
I’m also working on getting him some reliable
communication.
R is a SouthSide Crip. I have him on social media
were I seen him posting some stuff saying ‘they
know where I live, fuck the suckas. ’ I asked him,
is everything ok? And what was going on? He
informed me, that the West Side Asian Bloods
had obtained his address and they been going
back and forth on the Internet. Sending threats
to each other. These two hoods had been having
a long ongoing feud that consist of countless
shootouts and a couple unconfirmed homicides
in the past.
If G just says the word, then it goes. I’m
checking in and “what you doing” and
encouraging him to pursue his rap career. Just
planting that seed in his ear and him seeing me,
coming from that same life that he’s living now,
and see what I’m doing. I seen him the other
day when I dropped off some food to him. He
jumps out the car, “What’s up my guy” , hugs
me, real calm. You know, he’s like, “My girl’s
making some food, you wanna eat?” That may
be a small success, but it’s huge in what’s not
happening because he’s in a good place.
T and his family are being evicted from their
house. I’m going to try to use the resource that I
have with Central low income valley housing to
help try to get him some assistance and a place.
C has been seemingly less interested in anything
other than being in the streets doing his thing. I
try to set up times to talk but he’s slipping away.
I will continue my attempts and will not give up.
I talk to his mom more than him, listening to her
concerns.
S just has the citizen status that prevents
him from getting jobs, so most of his jobs are
because someone knows someone who is able
to put him on. I will be looking into some of our
resources to see if we can get him started on a
Advance Peace Fellows, descriptions by their NCA mentors 19 The Advance Peace Stockton street outreach
workers or Neighborhood Change Agents
(NCAs), are skilled professionals that
perform street-level conflict mediation as
well as mentor their fellows. These highly
skilled individuals are all from Stockton, so
they have street credibility, and all spent
significant time in prison for gun-related
crimes. However, they have all gone through
a transformation inside prison and out
where they have identified the traumas
that contributed to their past violence, and
are working on healing themselves as they
simultaneously help others. The AP NCAs
receive regular professional development
through other experienced outreach workers,
professional trainings and all carry numerous
certifications, such as in conflict mediation,
harm reduction and cognitive behavioral
therapy. We recognize the AP NCAs as
‘credible messengers’ who are uniquely
skilled to navigate the streets, mentor those
at the center of gun violence, engage with
the friends and families of those at the center
of violence, and can support their fellows
in obtaining culturally competent social
services and other life-supporting resources.
As of September 2020, there were six
NCAs in Stockton. There is a lead-NCA and
a Program Manager, both of whom also
perform outreach activities. Each day, the
NCAs meet to review the ‘temperature on
the street’ and to discuss opportunities and
challenges for their fellows. NCAs will also
review social media accounts to identify any
conflicts that might escalate into physical
violence. Each NCA focuses their outreach
in the areas of the city and with groups they
were most familiar, and with their assigned
fellows. All NCAs are required to keep daily
or weekly logs of their activities using the UC
Berkeley developed web-system, apdata.org.
All street outreach activities are recorded,
including the persons contacted, the number
of contacts and the hours spent. The status
of each fellow, the types of referrals they
received, their progress on LifeMAP goals and
all services received are documented. The
NCA also records if the fellow was arrested,
shot or injured during the past week. The
number of times, hours spent, and specific
type of conflict resolutions are also captured
each week. The NCAs document if they
responded to a shooting, interrupted an
imminent gun conflict, diffused a social
media beef, and other types of general
conflict mediations. Finally, the number and
hours spent on meetings and trainings is
recorded.
The following tables and figures share
the amount of activity the AP Stockton
NCAs completed in the two year program.
A summary of the NCA investments in
Stockton:
• 10,760 hours of outreach.
• 11,911 outreach engagements.
• 1,271 hours on mediating
community conflicts.
• 506 community conflicts
mediated.
Advance Peace Stockton, Neighborhood Change Agent Data
20 21
22 ADVANCE PEACE STOCKTON
NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE AGENT DATA, 2019-20
NCA #1
Fellow + Street
Outreach Hours
Fellow + Street
Outreach
Engagements
NCA #3
NCA #4
NCA #5
NCA #2
1,686
1,543.2
2,118
868
1,615
2,320.5
37 99
133
49 119
69 102
295.5
306
101.5
296
145
2,726
1,097
2,409
678
2,902
1,762NCA #6
Hours
Community
Conflicts
Mediated
Number of
Community
Conflicts
Mediated
23 Figure 6. AP Stockton, Oct. 2018-Sept. 2020, Conflicts Mediated by Type & Quarter Figure 6, above, highlights the different types of conflicts that Advance Peace Stockton NCAs completed each quarter during the 2018-2020 program. After hours conflicts are those that occur between 7pm and 7am; Gun Violence Interruptions are when gun use is imminent; General Mediation is conflict on the street or in the neighborhood where guns are not present; Shootings Responded to, are when an NCA goes to the scene of a shooting to assess the situation and de- escalate any potential retaliation; Social Media Conflicts Mediated, are posts or direct contacts with the person posting to ensure the issue doesn’t escalate.
These data reflect outreach and engagements with people that were likely not being engaged by any other organization in Stockton prior to Advance Peace’s arrival. Over the course of 24 months, the AP Stockton NCA team:
• Likely prevented 44 murders through interrupting imminent gun violence. • Mediated 517 community conflicts that could have escalated into gun violence. • Were present after 116 shootings and helped avoid further retaliatory violence. • Invested an average of 448 hours each month, or 15 hours per day, on street outreach. • Invested an average of about 53 hours per month mediating conflicts.
After Hours Conflicts Mediated Gun Violence Interrupted Shootings Responded To
General Mediation
Social Media Conflicts Mediated
24 Figure 7. AP Stockton, Oct. 2018-Sept. 2020, Total NCA Hours by Activity Figure 8. AP Stockton, Oct. 2018-Sept. 2019: Outreach and Engagement Activities & Hours by Month
All Engagement Activities
All Fellow Engagements
All All
ReferralsReferrals
Conflicts Conflicts
MediatedMediated
Shooting Shooting
ResponseResponse
After Hrs. After Hrs.
MediationsMediations
Gun Violence Gun Violence
InterruptedInterrupted
Social Media Social Media
ConflictsConflicts
hrs
hrs
hrshrs
hrshrs
25 Figure 9. AP Stockton 2-Year: Total Number of NCA Outreach Activities Activity Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Total Number
All Outreach 2578 1987 2062 1942 782 765 973 822 11,911 All Referrals 231 191 137 173 86 55 58 90 1,021
After Hours
Conflicts
Mediated
6 9 15 18 3 19 24 7 101
General
Mediaton 4 37 46 47 36 21 12 18 221
Gun Violence
Interrupted 2 12 14 3 1 8 4 44
Shootings
Responded To 1 19 38 13 13 16 8 8 116
Social Media
Conflicts
Mediated
2 12 8 7 0 3 2 1 35
Meetings 14 80 260 454 360 207 106 101 1,582
Total 2838 2347 2580 2657 1281 1094 1187 1047 15,031
26 Activity Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Total Number
All Outreach 2212 1546.5 1175 1523.5 921 980 1313 1089 10760 All Referrals 254 233.5 259.5 397.5 159 118.5 77 123.5 1622.5 After Hours
Conflicts
Mediated
12 14.5 52 55.5 8.5 43 48 20 253.5
General
Mediaton 5.5 61 102 122 67.5 56 24 46 484
Gun Violence
Interrupted 3.5 26 48 12 5 39 12 145.5
Shootings
Responded To 1 53.5 104.5 47.5 34.5 38 23 19.5 321.5
Social Media
Conflicts
Mediated
6 19.5 14 17 0 5 3 3 67.5
Meetings 27.5 156.5 498 664.5 555 555 432.5 619 3508
Total Hours 2521.5 2111 2253 2839.5 1750.5 1834.5 1932.5 1920 17162.5 Figure 10. AP Stockton 2- Year: Total Hours of NCA Outreach Engagements 27 Benefit Cost Analysis
Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is a measure of return
on investment. BCR compares the costs of
an intervention to its benefits, including
program participants and taxpayers. If the
BCR is greater than 1, the benefits of the
intervention exceeded its costs. For example,
a BCR of $5 represents $5 of benefits accrued
for every $1 spent on an intervention.
The benefits of the Advance Peace Stockton
intervention were calculated by first using
the cost estimates of the cost of gun violence
in Stockton as calculated by the National
Institute of Criminal Justice Reform (NICJR),
https://nicjr.org/wp-content/themes/nicjr-
child/assets/Stockton.pdf. According to
NICJR, the true governmental and societal
cost of a gun homicide in Stockton is $2.5M
per homicide and $962,000 per injury
shooting. These costs include the emergency
and police response, law enforcement
investigation, District Attorney and Public
Defender’s office, hospitalization/health care,
pre-trial incarceration and prison placement,
victim supports, and lost revenue from victim
and perpetrator not paying taxes. These
data are consistent with estimates from other
California places and national data.
Second, using our NCA data and interviews,
we determined that the Advance Peace
Stockton program intervened to stop 44
cyclical and retaliatory gun incidents over
the two-year period (see, Gun Violence
Interruptions above). These were incidents
in the streets where guns were present
and NCAs actively interrupted a conflictual
situation. If all these 44 incidents would
have resulted in shootings with an injury, the
costs would have been about $42.3 Million.
If the 44 incidents were gun homicides, the
costs would have been about $110 Million.
Thus, we determined that the benefits of
AP Stockton were between $42.3 and $110
Million over the two-year period.
Third, we received data from Advance Peace
that the two-year total cost of the program
was $891,280.
Finally, we calculated the BCR by dividing
the estimated benefits by the costs: $42.3M/
$891,280 and $110M/$891,280. We did not
use a discount rate.
The BCR for Advance Peace Stockton for
2018-2020 was $47.46 - $123.42: $1.
This means that for every dollar the city
spent on Advance Peace, they received
between $47-123 dollars in return.
28 29
30 AP Stockton: Select Events: 2019-2020
• April 2019, Live Free Bootcamp, Brother Nuri
Muhammad interview, https://www.facebook.
com/Toni.McNeil/videos/10214047523485693/
• June 2019, AP Stockton co-sponsors “Pedal for
Peace” event.
• July 2019, ABC10 news, “Stockton’s history of
gun violence and those working to bring peace
to its streets, ” https://www.abc10.com/article/
news/local/abc10-originals/stocktons-history-
of-gun-violence-and-those-working-to-bring-
peace-to-its-streets/103-606c1b23-a74d-4cec-
84d6-6f30d3f08059
• July & August 2019, AP Stockton participates in
South Side community clean-up event & Unity
community BBQ/cookout at Brotherhood Park.
• September 2019, AP Stockton co-organizes
community event in Stribley Park & East Side
Stockton Unity BBQ.
• October 23, 2019. AP Stockton team give
guest lectures at Prof. Jason Corburn’s
UC Berkeley course, https://www.
facebook.com/advancepeacestockton209/
videos/569052680301533/
• November 2019, community event for families,
including food & activities.
• January, 2020, AP Stockton travels to
Washington, DC and NYC to build professional
skills and networks.
• January 14, 2020, National Institute for Criminal
Justice Reform (NICJR), publishes report on
“The Cost of Gun Violence in Stockton, ” https://
nicjr.org/wp-content/themes/nicjr-child/assets/
Stockton.pdf
• February 5, 2020, Fox40 News, “Stockton’s
controversial Advance Peace program saves
the city money, mentors say, ” https://fox40.
com/news/local-news/stocktons-controversial-
advance-peace-program-saves-the-city-money-
mentors-say/
• February 2020, Partnership with Mom’s Demand
Action
• February 25, 2020, AP Stockton program
manager Nuri Muhammad testifies at
Stockton City Council meeting, https://www.
facebook.com/advancepeacestockton209/
videos/185794709425766/
• April 18, 2020, COVID-19, AP Stockton public
service announcement, https://www.
facebook.com/advancepeacestockton209/
videos/248361489873915/
• July 2020, Partnership with Matt Barnes,
former NBA player, July 2020, https://www.
facebook.com/advancepeacestockton209/
videos/557929374878415/
• July 2020, NY Times, “In Stockton, a powerful
Program to Prevent Violence. ”
• August, 2020, AP featured in HBO documentary,
Stockton on my Mind.
• August 2020, NCAs using films to give voice
to fellows and other outreach workers,
BlacAuguztStudioz, https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=8arm6vrKxgs&feature=youtu.be
• August 2020 - Mayor Tubbs notes that crime
is trending down in Stockton due to the “hard
work of programs like Advance Peace. ”
31 NCA Voices:
I guess the greatest hindrance, the greatest
challenge, like everyone else, has been COVID-19.
Kind of like put a halt on a lot of our programming.
...It’s just been very, very difficult and the amount
of services and referrals to agencies is limited just
because a lot of people are closed right now.
Usually our successes result in some type of
quietness that’s hard to report, other than they’re
doing great. I mean, when something bad happens
that you know, everybody knows about it- the news,
ABC, Fox News, everybody wants to do an interview
when something’s going bad or horrible. But, you
can go months and months without anything going
on. Advance Peace doesn’t even come up. But, as
soon as something happens, you know, like where
they at, what have they been doing, you know?
Haven’t heard from them in a while. You haven’t
heard from us in a while because nothing wasn’t
going on. But, now that it’s going on I think people
look for us to be in those circles. So, it may be like a compliment in an off-handed kind of way. That uh,
when something happens, they’re looking for us, like
they expect us to be able to stop it or have to interject ourselves in some kind of way.
I think this year (2020), especially towards the end of this year, we were able to get back with some people
that we normally would have thought we would have
partnered with that we had some difficulty factors
with. We weren’t necessarily well accepted when
we got started. So, we had to tell our own narrative.
We had to control our own stories. We had to you
know become our own hype people, our own pitch
people. The city as a whole was not looking kindly
on our program at all, especially the negative media
from like 209 Times and other places because people
bought into that narrative, but we’ve been able to
survive, and that is a plus in the midst of all that
negativity for sure.
When I took this job, I got a lot of push back from
some of the members in my community, you know
the “fellas” , if you will. Um, you know, everybody
automatically assumed that we were somehow
connected to some sort of law enforcement agency
or you know all these other types of things. I
even got a call from prison from the higher ups
demanding that I go and meet a representative and
explain myself. I stood my ground. I just continued
to dispel the negative narrative that some certain
people had about the program. Everybody that was
a naysayer before, they is all over me now about how
they can be a part of this.
Another obstacle is when you live a certain way for
so long, and you have this image and certain people
know things about you. I just got released from
prison in 2017. So, the last time this person seen me, you know I’m living this way and now I’m over here
living a different way. There was a lady. After I went to go respond to a shooting. She knew who I was.
She was like ‘don’t tell him shit. ’ You know, like ‘we don’t know who this dude is. ’ She knew who I was,
not what I’m doing now. Its hard for them to believe
the hopes and wishes that you’re trying to push out
to everybody, when they don’t know you as that
different person. So, with consistency you just start
to change their image of yourself and the program.
So, those are some of the challenges that I’ve faced,
personally.
I found that the trauma-related stressors affect
the staff too. Myself, staff, affect family life, your normal day-to-day operations, just dealing with
the constant, either potential violence situations
or actual violence situations. It does have like a
re-stimulative effect on us, and it was necessary to
really go find some help for ourselves. So, I think the end of this year and the beginning of this next 2021,
just our new partnership with Three Rivers, as far
as staff counseling and uh people to give us some
type of therapy for ourselves on a more consistent
basis will be a big part of the work because I did find myself depressed, when we lost a young man, and
32 even though I didn’t interact with him that much,
just the mere fact that it happened and he was in our
office, sat with us and ate with us. I know that getting significant mental health help for the staff, offering it for our clients of course, for our fellowship members
of course, but mainly for our staff that has to deal
with the constant grind of dealing with violent issues
and the re-stimulative effect of it because it’s going
to be an important part of our work coming up.
One of the difficult things that we had this past year
is that we were waiting to see the examples from
Richmond and Sacramento. Since we were coming
behind Sacramento, we were barely starting to get
with our life skills classes and our junior fellows, and we were taking a page off of what Richmond were
doing and what Sacramento were doing. And, as we
began to start to instill that culture in the people that we were working with, as far as fellows and what
not, COVID came. It just made it difficult because it’s a lot of things that we talked about and discussed
what we were going to do that had to put a halt on
everything, you know? It gets to the point where
you’re telling someone, “oh, we got this coming” and
then a new stipulation, something comes down, “oh
we got to push off another four weeks” so you know,
I’m just tired of going around with empty promises
and can’t deliver. But, I still check in and let them
know, ‘you know what, this is out of my hands, out
of our hands. As soon as they lift some of these
limitations, cause we don’t want to put you at risk
at the same time. ’ So, I think that was one of the
difficulties. As time progresses, we can do better and
really be focused on that. And, I think we’re having a thorough understanding on the blueprint of how to
do it now.
What is different about AP Stockton, maybe, is we
had to do a little more community organizing, just
because of how our structure’s set up. You know,
Sacramento initially started with the help of, a
part of the city, and their funding. Ours was, totally
separate. So a lot of the things we had to do was
community building and that was big. That was
something new. The organizer piece.
Other AP cities have the city buy-in as far as funding
was concerned. We had maybe the buy-in of Mayor
T ubb’s office, but no funding, no support. It even
took us a while for the police. As you know, even
getting the data from the police like we should have
been getting from the beginning, that just took us
a while to get everything done, and I think that was
the biggest challenge for us that was different than
maybe Advance Peace in Sacramento or the ONS in
Richmond.
Look, the wounds of slavery, Jim Crow, eugenics,
redlining, failing schools, and related policies that
continue to traumatize our communities aren’t going
away from one program like ours. We are part of
changing the narrative: away from victim blaming;
away from more policing and prisons; away from
communities don’t know or can’t do; away from us as
being thugs or dangerous. Not only has society, but
our fellows have internalized these false narratives.
We’re changing that story by doing differently, saving
lives, and helping point-out the policies, laws and
systems that need to change for us to continue and
have a greater impact. When you combine that with
data showing that stopping gun violence saves
millions of dollars, maybe we start to see real social
change.
33 Learning & Evaluation
2018-2020 Report
STOCKTON
FINDINGS &