220-7639
Highlights of Key Findings from a Citywide Voter Survey Conducted November 30 – December 7, 2025
City of Merced
Local Funding Measure Survey
Summary of Survey
Attachment 1
2 Survey Methodology
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding) Dates November 30 – December 7, 2025
Survey Type Dual-mode Voter Survey
Research Population Likely November 2026 Voters in the City of Merced Total Interviews 410
Margin of Sampling Error (Full Sample) ±4.9% at the 95% Confidence Level (Half Sample) ±6.9% at the 95% Confidence Level
Contact Methods
Data Collection Modes
Survey Tracking 2005, 2010, 2017, 2018, 2019 & 2022
Languages English & Spanish
Text
Invitations
Telephone
Calls
Email
Invitations
Telephone
Interviews
Online
Interviews
3 Perceptions of Life in Merced
4 Right
Direction
46%
Wrong
Track
34%
Don't
Know
20%
A plurality said they feel the City optimistic
about where Merced is headed.
First, would you say things in the City of Merced are headed in the right direction, or do you feel they are off on the wrong track?
5 65%
56%
42%
48%
46%
47%
44%
42%
28%
26%
37%
30%
32%
26%
27%
29%
5%
7%
14%
14%
14%
19%
19%
19%
7%
4%
4%
9%
6%
4%
4%
5%
8%
4%
Homelessness
*The cost of health care
*Gangs and youth violence
Drugs and narcotics
The cost of living
The number of people living in poverty in Merced
*Drug trafficking and drug use
Jobs and the local economy
Extremely Serious Problem Very Serious Problem Somewhat Serious Problem Not Too Serious Problem Don’t Know Extremely/Very Serious Problem
93%
83%
79%
78%
77%
73%
71%
71%
Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced.
For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced.
The top two most pressing issues to voters were homelessness and the cost of healthcare.
6 Few were concerned about too much growth and development.
Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced. For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced. *Split Sample 21%
20%
27%
17%
12%
12%
19%
18%
10%
16%
20%
8%
31%
21%
16%
28%
24%
16%
20%
25%
39%
33%
31%
59%
10%
16%
7%
7%
13%
5%
*A lack of recreation programs
How quickly police and fire respond to 911 calls
*The amount of illegal immigration
Aggressive bicycle riding
The risk of rapidly spreading neighborhood fires
*Too much growth and development
Extremely Serious Problem Very Serious Problem Somewhat Serious Problem Not Too Serious Problem Don’t Know Extremely/Very Serious Problem
40%
38%
37%
32%
32%
20%
7 Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced. For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced. *Split Sample; °Wording Slightly Different in Previous Survey 20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2010 2017 2019 2022 2025
*The cost of health care
The cost of living
*The cost of housing and rent
The amount of local taxes people pay
(Extremely/Very Serious Problem)
Voters have become more concerned
about cost-of-living issues in recent years.
8 Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced. For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced. *Split Sample; °Wording Slightly Different in Previous Survey 40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2017 2019 2022 2025
Homelessness
The number of people living in poverty in Merced
Jobs and the local economy
(Extremely/Very Serious Problem)
Concerns about the economy and
poverty have remained steadily high.
9 Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced. For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced. *Split Sample; °Wording Slightly Different in Previous Survey 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2017 2019 2022 2025
*Gangs and youth violence
Drugs and narcotics
*Drug trafficking and drug use
Crime, in general
How quickly police and fire respond to 911 calls
The risk of rapidly spreading neighborhood fires
(Extremely/Very Serious Problem)
Concerns about public safety have held constant,
with the highest for issues related to gangs and drugs. 10 Next, please consider the following issues that some people suggest are problems in the City of Merced. For each one, please indicate whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Merced. *Split Sample; °Wording Slightly Different in Previous Survey 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2010 2017 2019 2022 2025
°The condition and safety of local parks
°*A lack of recreation programs
(Extremely/Very Serious Problem)
Concerns about parks’ condition and safety have increased, with concerns about insufficient rec programs now top of mind. 11 67%
45%
47%
31%
22%
26%
22%
36%
23%
32%
28%
19%
5%
5%
8%
41%
5%
7%
15%
6%
22%
9%
5%
4%
21%
11%
4%
6%
9%
8%
^Local firefighters
Local small business owners
Local farmers
^Local police officers
^Merced Mayor Matthew Serratto
Youth safety organizations
Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Never Heard of Heard of No Opinion Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Total Favorable
Total
Unfavorable
89% 5%
81% 7%
70% 10%
63% 30%
50% 20%
45% 5%
Local firefighters, small business owners, and
local farmers are viewed favorably.
Next, here are some names of people and organizations active in public life.
For each one, please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. 12 47%
19%
12%
4%
37%
33%
37%
25%
9%
28%
26%
34%
15%
14%
28%
6%
5%
10%
10%
The Merced Fire Department
The Merced Police Department
The Parks & Community Services Department
Merced City government, overall
Excellent Good Fair Poor Don’t Know
Excellent/
Good
Fair/
Poor
83% 11%
53% 42%
50% 40%
28% 62%
Voters gave the Fire Department high job ratings.
First, please consider some different aspects of Merced’s City government. For each one, please indicate whether you feel they are doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job in providing services and taking care of the needs of local residents. 13 Next, in your personal opinion, do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to provide the level of City services that Merced residents need and want? More Likely to Say “Great Need”
Independent Women
High/Vocational School Educated
Ages 30-39
Independents Ages 18-49
West Merced Region
City Council District 2
Household Income <$75,000
Non-College Educated Women
Women Ages 18-49
Independents
Central Merced Region
City Council District 3
Large majorities continue to feel the
City has a need for additional funding.
47%
44%
28%
31%
7%
10%
11%
7%
7%
7%
2025
2022
Great Need Some Need A Little Need No Real Need Don't Know Great/
Some
Need
A Little/
No Real
Need
75% 18%
76% 17%
14 Initial Reactions to a Potential
General-Purpose Sales Tax Measure
15 Conceptual General-Purpose Sales Tax Measure Ballot Language Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure?
General-Purpose; 50%+1 Vote threshold; City Attorney-approved language City of Merced Vital Services Protection Measure. Shall a City of Merced measure to maintain local services, such as 911 fire/police/medical/ natural disaster response; neighborhood safety programs; youth services; street/pothole repair; addressing homelessness; safe/clean parks/public areas; and other general city services and address federal/state cuts, by establishing a 1¢ sales tax, providing approximately $18,000,000 annually until ended by voters, with public disclosure, independent audits, with citizen oversight, all funds for Merced, be adopted?
16 Sixty-three percent expressed support for the simple-majority requirement conceptual measure.
Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure?
38%
15%
10%
2%
5%
19%
11%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
26%
Total
Yes
63%
17 Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure? Support was generally consistent by ethnicity.
Initial Vote by Race/Ethnicity
62%
64%
65%
28%
26%
24%
Whites
Latinos
All Voters of Color
Total Yes Total No Difference
+34%
+38%
+41%
18 Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure? 63% 60% 58%
26% 28% 31%
11% 13% 11%
Initial
Vote
After Supportive
Statements
After Supportive &
Critical Statements
Total Yes
Total No
Undecided
There was little change in overall viability over the course of the survey for the simple majority requirement measure.
19 Investment Priorities
20 58%
55%
67%
50%
61%
53%
52%
50%
36%
35%
22%
36%
25%
31%
32%
34%
7%
8%
10%
12%
12%
14%
13%
4%
*Addressing homelessness
Responding quickly to neighborhood fires
*Preventing gang activity in the city
Maintaining the City’s ability to respond to a natural or medical disaster
*Addressing homeless encampments
*Protecting and maintaining 911 police response times
Fixing potholes
Maintaining Merced’s local quality of life
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don’t Know First, please consider some potential elements of this measure, including ways in which funds it generates could be spent.
For each one, please indicate how important each one is to you personally, regardless of how you feel about the measure:
either extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important.
Top investment priorities included addressing
homelessness, responding to emergencies, preventing gang activity, fixing potholes, and maintaining the City’s quality of life.
Extremely/Very
Important
94%
90%
89%
86%
85%
84%
84%
84%
21 54%
48%
46%
41%
39%
52%
39%
29%
33%
36%
41%
43%
27%
41%
10%
13%
13%
16%
12%
12%
16%
5%
5%
4%
6%
4%
Providing services to get homeless residents
off local streets
Retaining qualified police officers
Providing police and fire stations to match the
community’s need
Keeping city parks safe and clean
*Maintaining neighborhood-based policing to help
make areas surrounding our schools and parks safer
Preventing the elimination of 24 firefighter positions
funded by canceled federal grants
*Maintaining neighborhood policing
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don’t Know First, please consider some potential elements of this measure, including ways in which funds it generates could be spent. For each one, please indicate how important each one is to you personally, regardless of how you feel about the measure: either extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. *Split Sample Others with 50%+ “extremely important” helping homeless residents get off the streets and protecting firefighter positions.
Extremely/Very
Important
83%
82%
82%
82%
82%
79%
79%
22 46%
37%
34%
39%
34%
37%
30%
38%
41%
35%
40%
35%
13%
17%
21%
22%
22%
21%
11%
6%
4%
7%
Providing affordable housing options to city residents
Providing medical staff and equipment on
every fire engine
Maintaining city parks
*Increasing crime prevention efforts
Maintaining clean park bathrooms
*Protecting and maintaining neighborhood
police patrols
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don’t Know First, please consider some potential elements of this measure, including ways in which funds it generates could be spent. For each one, please indicate how important each one is to you personally, regardless of how you feel about the measure: either extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. *Split Sample Many also want parks to be maintained
well, but with less intensity.
Extremely/Very
Important
76%
75%
75%
74%
74%
72%
23 First, please consider the following statements from people who may support this potential measure. For each one, please indicate whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support the measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample 54%
45%
44%
41%
35%
34%
34%
31%
31%
30%
28%
26%
33%
36%
32%
33%
40%
37%
44%
43%
34%
40%
80%
79%
80%
73%
68%
74%
71%
75%
74%
64%
68%
Emergency Response
Safer Grant
Quality of Streets
Homelessness
^Local Control
^Safe Spaces
Protecting Children
Parks
Fire Stations
Crime Preventions
Quality of Life
Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing
Emergency response was a particularly compelling
rationale for supporting a potential general-purpose measure 24 Reactions to Special Purpose
(2/3’s requirement)
Funding Measures
25 Conceptual Public Safety Special-Purpose Tax Measure Ballot Language
Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure?
67% Vote threshold
City of Merced Public Safety Protection Measure. Shall a measure to address federal budget cuts/state takeaways, maintain local public safety, such as maintaining 911 emergency police, fire, and medical response times; paramedics/medical staff/equipment on fire engines; neighborhood policing and gang prevention; and natural disaster response; by establishing 1¢ sales tax, providing approximately $18,000,000 annually until ended by voters, with public disclosure, independent audits, with citizen oversight, all funds for Merced, be adopted?
26 A 2/3’s requirement public safety measure is not viable.
Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure?
24%
19%
6%
1%
13%
19%
19%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
32%
Total
Yes
49%
Margin of Error = ±6.9%
27 Conceptual Parks Special Purpose Sales Tax Measure
Ballot Language
Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure?
67% Vote threshold
City of Merced Safe/Clean Parks Measure. Shall a measure to maintain/keep parks safe/clean; repair outdated/increasingly unusable playground equipment; upgrade deteriorating/dirty restrooms/recreation facilities; provide safe sports fields, trails, youth recreation programs; remove overgrown vegetation/weeds creating wildfire risks; provide bike paths; upgrade community centers, by establishing a ¼¢ sales tax providing $4,500,000 annually until ended by voters, with public disclosure, independent financial audits, with citizen oversight, all funds local, be adopted?
28 A 2/3’s requirement measure dedicated to parks is not viable. . Do you think you would vote yes or no on this measure? 21%
22%
6%
2%
11%
24%
15%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
36%
Total
Yes
49%
Margin of Error = ±6.9%
29 Conclusions
30 Potential Measure Viability
• A one-cent, general-purpose sales tax measure currently enjoys solid majority support (63%) from a November 2026 electorate.
• Many individual investment areas resonated strongly, including addressing homelessness, responding to emergencies, preventing gang activity, fixing potholes, and maintaining the City’s quality of life. • Taken together, a measure does appear potentially viable in this point in time. • Special-purpose measures funding only public safety or only parks are well below their two-thirds requirement thresholds.
Curt Below Lucia Del Puppo
[email protected] [email protected]
Suzanne Brewster
[email protected]
The Lew Edwards Group
[email protected]