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1 CITY OF MERCED
GENERAL PLAN UPDATE
Joint Study Session #1
MAY 26, 2026
Meeting Purpose
To review the Existing Conditions and Trends Workbook and provide a summary of key findings
To review recent community outreach for a vision for the future and discuss city assets, issues, and opportunities Agenda
Existing Conditions and Trends Workbook Overview
Community Visioning Outreach
Next Steps
Meeting Objectives
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2 EXISTING CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
WORKBOOK OVERVIEW
Existing Conditions and Trends Workbook
4 The Workbook is intended to be:
• A high-level snapshot of existing conditions based
on recently published plans, reports, and data.
• A concise, engaging, and highly graphical analysis
that incorporates infographics, charts, maps, and
photographs.
The Workbook is informed by:
• Existing regional and local data
• Regional plans impacting or involving Merced
• CAFG, Planning staff, and community input
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3 Existing Conditions and Trends Workbook
5 Contents
1. Introduction
2. Land Use and Community Design
3. Population, Employment, and Housing
4. Mobility
5. Market and Economic Conditions
6. Public Facilities, Services, and
Infrastructure
7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
8. Air Quality
9. Environment
10. Hazards and Safety
11. Environmental Justice
2. Land Use
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4 Existing Land Uses
• Public facilities account for nearly 40 percent of existing land uses according to the County Assessor’s Office.
Existing 2030 General Plan Land Use
• Emphasized Low Density Residential (~22 percent) and
High Density Residential (~15 percent)
2. Land Use
7 Public
Facilities
40%All Other
Land Uses
60%
HDR: 203 acres
LDR: 5,395 acres
Existing Zoning
• The Low-Density Residential (LDR) zone
accounts for more than 32 percent of total
acreage.
• The Planned Development zoning is well
used (22 percent)
Comparison of
LDR and HDR
Zones by
Acreage
3. Population Employment and Housing
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5 3. Population Employment and Housing
9 Public
Facilities
40%All Other
Land Uses
60%
LDR: 5,395 acres
2025 Population
Merced: 98,039
Annual
Growth Rate
Percent
Change
2010-20252025202020152010
1.43%24%98,03984,08181,12079,254Merced
1.05%17%293,080273,661263,885250,699Merced County
0.51%8%39,529,10139,346,02338,421,46436,637,290California Population Trends, 2010-2025
Population Trends by Percent Change
0.0% 2.4%
16.6%
5.3% 3.7%
7.1%
4.9%
2.4%
0.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2010 2015 2020 2025
Percent Change
City of Merced Merced County California
3. Population Employment and Housing
10 Ethnicity, Merced, 2010 and 2023
58.5%
45.6% 41.5%
54.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
20232010
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) Not Hispanic or Latino Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 5-year Estimates, Table DP03, 2010, 2023. 9 10
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6 3. Population Employment and Housing
11 Top Three Industries in Merced, by Number Employed
PercentTotalIndustry
100.0%35,750Civilian employed population 16 years and over
25.90%9,267Educational services, and health care and social assistance
11.00%3,940Retail trade
10.60%3,805Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 29,400 30,000 30,100 30,700
31,800
33,100
32,000
33,300 33,900 34,300
35,600
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Jobs
Year
Employment, Merced, 2015-2025
3. Population Employment and Housing
12 Median Household Income (ACS 5-year)
$37,627
$49,973
$59,938
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
2015 2020 2023
59% INCREASE OVER 8
YEARS OF DATA
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7 3. Population Employment and Housing
Housing Mix
Single-Unit Detached Homes account for around 65 percent of the City’s housing stock.
This is a lower percentage than the county (~74 percent) but greater than the state (~57 percent).
Large Apartments
Merced has a higher proportion of 20 or more-unit complexes (~6 percent) than the county (about three percent) but a significantly lower proportion than the state (over 13 percent).
3. Population Employment and Housing
AVERAGE HOME VALUE: City of Merced, Aug. 2025:
$397,655
Source: Zillow Home Value Index
$7,300 $10,400 $10,000
$295,500
$396,200 $430,000
$(50,000)
$50,000
$150,000
$250,000
$350,000
$450,000
2019 2020 2025 Estimate
Renters Homeowners
Median Net Worth by Tenure
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8 4. Mobility
15 4. Mobility
16 AVERAGE TRAVEL TIME TO WORK,
City of Merced
2010: 20 minutes
2023: 27 minutes
AVERAGE WORKER VEHICLE OCCUPANCY,
City of Merced
2010: 0.93 workers
2023: 0.99 workers
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9 Active Transportation
4. Mobility
17 0.60%
1.30%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50%
2023
2010
Percentage of People Who Bike to Work in Merced
Bicycle Network
Merced County has ~150 miles
of bike paths, half of which are
in the City of Merced
Public Transit Services
• MTA “The Bus”
• CatTracks
• Yosemite Area Regional
Transportation System (YARTS)
• Intercity Bus Routes
• FlixBus
• VIA Charter lines
• Greyhound
• Amtrak Thruway Buses
4. Mobility
18 CatTracks Bus Routes
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10 Passenger Rail
• Amtrak
4. Mobility
19 Amtrak
San Joaquins Service
4. Mobility
20 Amtrak Annual Ridership Using the Merced Station
124,200
132,800
128,200
128,327
121,137
126,148
126,793
133,311
78,318
48,737
94,304
120,583
133,208
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual Ridership
Year
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11 4. Mobility
21 Aviation Facilities: MACREADY FIELD (MCE, City); CASTLE AIRPORT (MER, County) Enplanements at Macready Field (MCE)
2,051
3,181
3,724
2,580
2,018
2,000
9,426
8,318
7,355
6,816
4,499
5,301
3,431
3,798
4,858
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Enplanements
Year
5. Market and Economic Conditions
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12 5. Market and Economic Conditions
23 Comparative Market Analysis
Age and Housing Composition
• Merced has a young population with 45 percent of residents under age 25, compared to 36 percent in Mode sto and 37 percent in Stockton. Commute and Work Behavior
• Merced has the shortest mean travel time to work (~26 minutes) when compared to Modesto and Stockton.
Labor Market Conditions
• The unemployment rate in Merced is ~12 percent, higher than Modesto and Stockton.
5. Market and Economic Conditions
24 Industry and Occupation Profile
• Merced has a higher concentration of employment in:
Education, healthcare, and
social assistance (~26
percent), above both
Modesto (~23 percent) and
Stockton (~22 percent).
Natural resources, construction,
and maintenance occupations
(15 percent) higher than
Modesto (~11 percent) and
Stockton (~12 percent).
Government, at 21
percent, compared to 15
percent in Modesto and
~15 percent in Stockton.
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13 5. Market and Economic Conditions
25 Retail Sales and Economic Activity
• From 2015 to 2024, Merced’s taxable retail sales increased by 37 percent, below both the county and state growth rates.
• Taxable sales per capita in 2024 are lower than in Modesto, Stockton, Merced County, San Joaquin County, and Stanislaus County.
• Retail sales performance is especially weak in categories such as motor vehicle and parts dealers and general merchandise stores, relative to state and cities of Modesto and Stockton.
5. Market and Economic Conditions
26 Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
• Retail Market: Vacancy increased to ~6 percent in Q2 2025 (from~ 5 percent the prior year); net absorption was negative for the second consecutive year. • Office Market: Vacancy remains low at ~2 percent, though net absorption turned negative in the latest period.
• Industrial Market: Vacancy rose from 14~ percent to ~16 percent, with continued negative net absorption and modest rent increases.
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14 5. Market and Economic Conditions
27 AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO
Assumes increased demand for industrial and office uses.
BASELINE SCENARIO
Assumes continuation of existing development trends.
Market Forecasts
Forecast Scenario (2025-2045)Existing Development
(square feet)Land Use Type AggressiveBaseline
+250,000 +195,000 2,455,663 Office
+700,000 +700,000 5,903,638 Retail
+735,000 +550,000 5,572,961 Industrial
+7,237 +7,237 19,292 Residential – SF (units)
+3,930 +3,930 8,607 Residential – MF (units)
TBDTBD1,110Hospitality (rooms)
Potential Demand for New Development
6. Public Facilities, Services, and Infrastructure
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15 6. Public Facilities, Services, and Infrastructure
29 Water Supply and Delivery
• In 2020, the City supplied 20,076 AF of potable water and 4,050 AF of recycled water.
• Potable water demands are projected to in crease to 31,825 AF by 2040 due to population increases, including the UC Merced population. • The City’s water supply is projected to sufficiently meet expected demands through 2040 assuming:
• The installation of additional groundwater wells and
• Construction of a 10 million gallon per da y (mgd) surface water treatment plant by Merced Irrigation District by 2030
6. Public Facilities, Services, and Infrastructure
30 LAW ENFORCEMENT
Merced Police Department
Personnel:
98 sworn
46 non-sworn
Operates from two stations in Merced
FIRE PROTECTION
Merced Fire Department
Service Area: 23 miles
85 sworn personnel
5 stations, 7 engines, 1 truck, 1 ambulance
Merced Police Department
Photo Credit: Merced Police Department
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16 6. Public Facilities, Services, and Infrastructure
31 Higher Education
• UC Merced:
• Top-100 research university and the fast est-growing public university in the nation
• On the cutting edge of sustainability in campus construction and design, • Supports high achieving and dedicated st udents from the underserved Central Valley and throughout California.
• Merced College
• Enrollment: 11,839 students for the 2023/2024 school year. • About 41 percent of students are full-time
• The most common areas of study are liber al arts and sciences, agricultural mechanics and equipment, and automobile mechanics technology
6. Public Facilities, Services, and Infrastructure
32 Higher Education
Higher Education Population Over Time
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
2025
2015
2005
Non-Higher Education UC Merced Merced College
12%
25%
21%
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17 7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
33 7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
34 Trails
• Sunset Trail
• Michael O. Sullivan Bike Path
• Black Rascal Creek Bike Path
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18 7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
35 Parks
• 17 Mini-parks
• 14 Neighborhood parks
• 4 Community parks
• 3 Regional parks
7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
36 Public Art
• Murals
• Painted utility boxes
• Gateway monuments
• Sculptures
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19 7. Open Space, Parks, and Recreation
37 Programming and Activities
Applegate Park Zoo
Senior Community Center
Youth and adult sports
Summer Camp
Classes
8. Air Quality
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20 8. Air Quality
39 Air Pollutants of Concern
Ozone (O3)
Carbon Monoxide (CO)
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Respirable and
fine particulate matter
(PM10 and PM2.5)
Lead
Reactive organic gases (ROG) and nitrogen
oxides (NOx) are considered ozone precursors
8. Air Quality
40 Designation/Classification
Pollutant and Averaging Time
Federal StandardsState Standards
Revokeda
Non-attainment/Severe
Ozone (1-hour)
Non-attainment/ExtremeOzone (8-hour)
Unclassified/AttainmentAttainment/UnclassifiedCarbon Monoxide (CO) Unclassified/AttainmentAttainmentNitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Unclassified/AttainmentAttainmentSulfur Dioxide (SO2)
AttainmentNon-attainmentRespirable Particulate Matter (PM10) Non-attainmentNon-attainment Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (SJVAPCD) Attainment Status 39 40
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21 8. Air Quality
41 CalEnviroScreen 4.0 Percentile Scores Citywide Summary Percentile ScoreIndicator
Exposure
73Ozone
88PM2.5
66Children’s Lead Risk from Housing
61Diesel Particular Matter
66Drinking Water Contaminants
38Pesticide Use
13Toxic Releases from Facilities
44Traffic Density
Sensitive Population
93Asthma
98Cardiovascular Disease
63Low Birth Weight Infants
Environmental Effects
77Educational Attainment
70Housing Burden
61Linguistic Isolation
87Poverty
88Unemployment
Vulnerable Communities
• Merced includes several census
tracts with CalEnviroScreen scores
near 70 to 80, with some above 90,
qualifying them as disadvantaged
communities.
• Indicators for these communities
generally contribute the most to
their high percentile scoring
experienced citywide
9. Environment
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22 9. Environment
43 Critical Habitats
Water Resources
Biological Resources
Threatened, endangered, and
special-status plants and wildlife
Sensitive habitats
Cultural Resources
Historic sites
Tribal and cultural resources
Energy, Soil, and Mineral
Resources
10. Safety
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23 10. Safety
45 FEMA Flood Zones
Geologic and Seismic Hazards
Fire Risks
Climate Change
Drought
Extreme Heat
Flooding
Most of the southern portion of the city is
within the 100-year flood zone
10. Safety
46 Noise
Hazardous Materials
Aviation Hazards
Crime and Crime
Prevention
Crimes against people have
increased in total since 2014;
however, murders are down
by 50%.
The total number of crimes
against property is generally
the same as in 2014; however,
arsons have doubled.
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24 11. Environmental Justice
47 11. Environmental Justice
48 What is Environmental Justice?
Communities with disproportionately lowe r incomes, lower levels of education, and higher proportions of minority residents often bear a disproportionately large burden of exposure to environmental hazards and health risks. These conditions can often be traced ba ck to a variety of factors, including underinvestment, inequitable land us e and zoning practices, and fewer opportunities for public engagement.
Environmental justice seeks to minimize the effects of these hazards for all people, regardless of race, ethnicity, or income level, while improving access to healthy foods, clean environments, safe housing, and accessible parks and recreational facilities.
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25 11. Environmental Justice
49 There are 14 census tracts in the city
that fall within the top 25 percent of
overall CalEnviroScreen 4.0 scores
These 14 census tracts also have
percentile scores within the top 25
percent of Statewide EJScreen
environmental indicator scores.
CalEnviroScreen 4.0:
Disadvantaged Communities
11. Environmental Justice
50 CalEnviroScreen 4.0 ResultCensus Tract (2020)Census Tract (2010)
98.2No change6047001302 (13.02)
98.2No change6047001301 (13.01)
96.9No change6047001601 (16.01)
94.9No change6047001005 (10.05)
93.8No change6047001502 (15.02)
92.5No change6047001401 (14.01)
92.0 6047001603 (16.03)
6047001602 (16.02)
6047001604 (16.04)
82.1No change6047001700 (17)
80.8No change6047002500 (25)
80.4 6047001006 (10.06)
6047001002 (10.02) 6047001007 (10.07)
6047001008 (10.08)
79.5No change6047001503 (15.03)
77.2No change6047001501 (15.01)
76.9No change6047001402 (14.02)
75.9No change6047001003 (10.03)
CalEnviroScreen 4.0: Merced Environmental Justice Communities 49 50
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26 11. Environmental Justice
51 Pesticide use: higher exposure risk in census tracts near the edges of the city.
Traffic proximity: higher exposure risk near freeways in the central portions of the city.
Lead Exposure: highest in older homes, gene rally concentrated in the center of the city.
Language Isolation: highest in central portions of the city Cost burden: many low-income households in Merced are housing cost burdened, particularly those living in census tracts in the central and southern portions of the city
City edges
Central
Portions of
the City
Southern and
Central
Portions of
the City
11. Environmental Justice
52 Local Roadway Safety
The vast majority of collisions in
Merced occur within disadvantaged
areas, including 93 percent of all
injury collisions and 90 percent of
all Killed or Severely Injured (KSI)
collisions.
High Injury Network
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27 COMMUNITY VISIONING OUTREACH
Outreach Conducted
54 Community Open House #2
Vision, Assets, Issues, and Opportunities Survey
Community Advisory Focus Group Meeting #3
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28 Community Open House #2
55 Wednesday, January 28, 2026, from 2 p.m. to 6 p.m.
Activities covered:
Merced’s strengths, issues, and opportunities
What residents would like to see in the city's future Lessons learned from the past
Over 50 attendees
Activities available in English, Spanish, and Hmong
Community Open House #2
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29 Community Open House #2
57 Vision, Assets, Issues, and Opportunities Survey
58 Digital/Online Version of the Open House Exercises
Mirrors activities for community members who
were unable to attend Community Open House #2
Available in English, Spanish, and Hmong
Survey closed on March 16th, 2026
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30 CAFG Meeting #3
59 Wednesday, February 25, 2026 fr om 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. Similar discussion questions to those from Community Open House #2 activities
What can be improved in the city?
What are Merced’s strengths?
What new opportunities does the city have?
Lessons learned: What can we learn from Merced’s past? What do you hope to see in Merced’s future?
Feedback – Where does it lead?
60 Community Open House #2
Online Survey Responses
CAFG discussion
Draft a vision statement for the General Plan that:
Summarizes the community's shared aspirati ons and expectations for the future of the city, and
Guides the direction of all goals, poli cies, and programs in the General Plan Initial draft vision statement wi ll be presented to the CAFG tomorrow, May 27th, 2026, for discussion and refinement
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31 NEXT STEPS
Critical Upcoming Dates
62 Planning Commission Meeting: Vision Statement
• City Council Chambers
• Wednesday, August 5, 2026, at 6pm
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