Figure 4-34 below shows Valley Fever Annual Incidence among California Counties in the year 2012 – 2016 and 2017. People can get sick by breathing in a form of the Valley Fever fungus called spores. Spores are too small to be seen and they can get into the air with dust when it is windy or when dirt is distributed.
Fortunately, Valley Fever cannot be spread from one person to another. About 60% of infected people will not get sick. People who do get sick can have symptoms such as fever, tiredness, and weight loss that last a month or more. Valley Fever can also infect the brain, joints, bone, skin, or other organs. This type of infection is rare; however, it can be serious and sometimes fatal. Most people who get Valley Fever fully recover and are usually protected from getting Valley Fever again (CDPH 2021).
Geographic Area
Extensive – Pandemics occur not only on a county or state level but on a national and global scale. It is likely that most communities in Stanislaus County would be affected, either directly or by secondary impacts. Some indirect consequences may be the diversion of resources that may be otherwise available.
Stanislaus County has reported 84,433 cases and 1,302 deaths from COVID-19 as of October 12, 2021.
According to the Los Angeles Times “Tracking the coronavirus in Stanislaus County” dashboard, the major cities of Stanislaus have the highest number of cases, which is around 1,038 to 1730 cases per 10,000 residents, among which the City of Ceres currently has the highest concentration of cases (approximately 1,557 – 1,730 cases per 10,000 residents), as of October 12, 2021. These major cities like Ceres and Modesto have higher populations and municipal areas relative to other urban communities within the County, and COVID-19 is transmitted primarily from human-to-human contact. Figure 4-32 below shows the cases per 10,000 residents map for the cities in Stanislaus County, prepared by Los Angeles Times. #1..
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Figure 4-32 Coronavirus cases per 10,000 residents for cities in Stanislaus County Data source: Los Angeles Time, October 12, 2021
Figure 4-33 shows Valley Fever rates by California county. Figure 4-34 shows Valley Fever (coccidioidomycosis) cases by zip code per 100,000 population for Stanislaus County between 2014 and 2017. Figure 4-35 shows the reported cases of Valley Fever by year in Stanislaus County from 2011 – 2017.
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Figure 4-33 Valley Fever Rates in California Counties, 2012 – 2016 & 2017 Source: CDPH, November 2018.
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Figure 4-34 Valley Fever Cases by Zip Code per 100,000 population, Stanislaus County, 2014 and 2017
Source: CDPH, Stanislaus County Health Services Agency, December 2017.
Figure 4-35 Reported cases of Valley Fever by year, Stanislaus County from 2011 – 2017 Source: 2018 Stanislaus County Public Health Annual Report Extent (Magnitude/Severity)
Critical – The magnitude of a public health emergency will range significantly depending on the transmissivity and mortality rate of the virus. For example, pandemic influenza is easily transmitted from person-to-person, however, advances in medical technologies have greatly reduced the number of deaths caused by influenza over time.
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Today, a much larger percentage of the world’s population is clustered in cities, making them ideal breeding grounds for epidemics. Additionally, the explosive growth in air travel means the virus could spread around the globe within hours. Under such conditions, there may be very warning little time for counties, states, and countries to prepare. Most experts believe we will have just one to six months between the time that a dangerous new influenza strain is identified and the time that outbreaks begin to occur in the United States.
Outbreaks are expected to occur simultaneously throughout much of the nation, preventing shifts in human and material resources that normally occur with other natural disasters. These and many other aspects make pandemics unlike any other public health emergency or community disaster. Pandemics typically last for several months to 1-2 years and have even longer-lasting effects on the economy and communities.
As described by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pandemic Intervals Framework (PIF) is a sixphased approach to defining the progression of a pandemic. This framework is used to guide pandemic planning and provides recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action. These intervals provide a common method to describe a pandemic activity that can inform public health actions. The duration of each pandemic interval might vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response.
The six-phase approach was designed for the easy incorporation of recommendations into existing national and local preparedness and response plans. Phases 1 through 3 correlates with preparedness in the prepandemic interval, including capacity development and response planning activities, while Phases 4 through 6 signal the need for response and mitigation efforts during the pandemic interval. Phase 6 was reached in the County during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak.
Pre-Pandemic Interval
Phase 1 is the natural state in which influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals but do not affect humans.
Phase 2 involves cases of animal influenza that have circulated among domesticated or wild animals and have caused specific cases of infection among humans.
Phase 3 represents the mutation of the animal influenza virus in humans so that it can be transmitted to other humans under certain circumstances (usually very close contact between individuals). At this point, small clusters of infection have occurred.
Pandemic Interval
Phase 4 involves community-wide outbreaks as the virus continues to mutate and become more easily transmitted between people (for example, transmission through the air).
Phase 5 represents human-to-human transmission of the virus in at least two countries.
Phase 6 is the pandemic phase, characterized by community-level influenza outbreaks.
Past Occurrences
Since the early 1900s, five lethal pandemics have swept the globe:
• 1918-1919 Spanish Flu – The Spanish Flu was the most severe pandemic in recent history. The number of deaths was estimated to be 50-100 million worldwide and 675,000 in the United States. Its primary victims were mostly young, healthy adults. At one point, more than 10 percent of the American workforce was bedridden.
• 1957-1958 Asian Flu – The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic killed 1 to 2 million people worldwide, including about 70,000 people in the United States, mostly the elderly and chronically ill. Fortunately, the virus was quickly identified, and vaccine production began in May 1957. • 1968-1969 H3N2 Hong Kong Flu – The 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic killed 34,000 Americans.
Again, the elderly were more severely affected. This pandemic peaked during school holidays in December, limiting student-related infections, which may have kept the number of infections down.
Also, people infected by the Asian Flu ten years earlier may have gained some resistance to the new virus.
• 2003 SARS Outbreak – Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus, called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia #1..
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in February 2003. Over the next few months, the illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained. According to the WHO, a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to other parts of the world where SARS was spreading. SARS did not spread more widely in the community in the United States. The main way that SARS seems to spread is by close person-to-person contact. • 2009-2010 H1N1 Swine Flu – This influenza pandemic emerged from Mexico in early 2009 and was declared a public health emergency in the U.S. on April 26, 2009. By June, approximately 18,000 cases had been reported in the U.S. and the virus had spread to 74 countries. Most cases were fairly mild, with symptoms similar to the seasonal flu, but there were cases of severe disease requiring hospitalization and a number of deaths. The CDC estimates that 43-89 million people were infected worldwide, with an estimated 8,870 to 18,300 H1N1-related deaths, including 12,469 deaths in the United States.
• 2020-Ongoing COVID-19 – The COVID-19 or novel coronavirus outbreak began in December 2019 and was declared a pandemic in March of 2020. As of October 12, 2021, over 219 million cases and more than 4.5 million deaths have been reported globally, according to the WHO. Within the U.S. as of October 12, 2021, around 44.5 million cases and around 716,662 deaths have been reported.
Stanislaus County has reported 84,433 cases so far resulting in 1,302 deaths. COVID-19 vaccines are currently being administered and thus far 48.2% of Stanislaus County's total population has been fully vaccinated (CDC 2021). It will take several months for the entire population to receive a vaccine and achieve herd immunity; additionally, due to the uncertainty in the transmission of several variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the pandemic is expected to continue through 2021 and even 2022.
Furthermore, the opioid epidemic, which is already a problem in the Stanislaus County region, was made worse over the previous year, with the County recording an increase of overdose deaths from opioids. In 2020, Stanislaus County recorded 132 total deaths from overdose, which is an increase of 59 percent from 2019, according to the Stanislaus County Health Services Agency (SCHSA). Of the 132 overdose deaths, 78 were opioid-related. White residents continue to experience the highest opioid death rate, but the largest increase was seen in 18- to 24-year-olds in the Latinx community. This segment of the population saw an increase of 150 percent from 2019 to 2020, the SCHSA reported. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated drug overdoses "surged during the pandemic" with more than 87,000 people dying from drug overdoses in the 12 months ending in September 2020. That is the highest number of overdose deaths ever recorded in a year since the opioid epidemic began in the 1990s (Turlock Journal 2021).
The CDC points to several factors unique to the pandemic has having a direct role in the increase in overdose deaths. Disruptions to daily life during the pandemic caused individual isolation, economic fragility, and fear, while disrupting the treatment and support systems that were in space to support those most vulnerable to the disruptions and social connections in place prior to the pandemic. Another driver of the increase in overdose deaths is counterfeit pills that contain fentanyl, a highly potent painkiller reported as impacting various communities in Stanislaus County.
Probability of Future Occurrences
Occasional – Even before the COVID-19 pandemic began, most public health experts considered another major pandemic to be inevitable. However, there is no definite way to predict when the next pandemic might occur. Some indicators will be present, but not every new virus turns into a pandemic. Based on the five pandemics that have affected the United States in roughly the last 100 years, a pandemic occurs on average roughly every 20 years.
Climate Change Considerations
Additional research is needed to determine the effects of climate change on the frequency and duration of epidemics and pandemics. Climate change may influence vector-borne disease transmission, although the direction of the effects (increased or decreased incidence) will be location- and disease-specific. The intensity and extent of certain diseases are projected to increase. According to the WHO, there has been research development into the linkages between climate and infectious disease transmission that examine the associations between climate variability and infectious disease occurrence, early indicators of emerging #1..
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infectious disease impacts of climate change and using predictive models to estimate the future burden of infectious disease under different climate change scenarios (WHO 2003). In summary, future risks associated with climate change are difficult to predict, but changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are likely consequences of climate change. Climate change can impact when and where pathogens appear, particularly related to temperature and rainfall patterns.
Ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, building climate resiliency, and creating robust public health campaigns to prevent or prepare for possible increased vector-borne diseases may help to reduce the impacts of climate change on pandemics.
Vulnerability Assessment
Preparing for, responding to, and recovering from a pandemic requires a strategy that includes a holistic suite of public health activities designed to lessen the impact on morbidity and mortality. These activities include education, vaccination, prophylaxis, isolation/quarantine, robust contact tracing programs, and the closure of public facilities. In addition, clear, concise communication with the public and with other agencies remains a critical component, as does the ability of the involved agencies to achieve collaboration and coordination. By their very nature, most pandemics, once started, will not be stopped until they have run their course. This course can be shortened and weakened by a number of factors, with vaccination being the most effective method for protecting the population. Pandemic plans describe strategies of preparedness, response, and recovery to attempt to decrease illnesses and deaths during the pandemic period to manageable levels (i.e., that do not overwhelm the critical infrastructure) and to promote community resiliency and rapid recovery.
General Property
For the most part, property itself is not impacted by a human disease epidemic or pandemic. However, as concerns about contamination increase, property may be quarantined or destroyed as a precaution against spreading illness. Additionally, traditional sheltering facilities including homeless shelters or temporary facilities set up to support displaced persons due to an evacuation or other reason due to a simultaneous disaster occurring cannot be done in a congregate setting. This requires additional planning considerations or the use of facilities that allow for non-congregate shelter settings, which may require approval of a request to FEMA for non-congregate sheltering and may have an increased cost (such as the use of individual hotel rooms) as opposed to traditional congregate sheltering facilities.
People
Pandemics can affect large segments of the population for long periods. The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the virus. Risk groups cannot be predicted with certainty; the elderly, people with underlying medical conditions, and young children are usually at higher risk due to their higher exposure rates from schools, but as discussed above this is not always true for all infectious agents.
People without health coverage or access to good medical care are also likely to be more adversely affected. The mental health of the public could also be impacted depending on the length of the event and public health guidance on prevention.
As previously described, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 716,662 deaths in the U.S. alone (1,302 in Stanislaus County). In addition to the direct impacts, the pandemic has disrupted life for many people. Most large gatherings have had to be cancelled, and many schools have closed. Sheltering in place and social distancing have been highly encouraged and, in some places, mandated, leaving some individuals isolated for months.
Government Services
Medical staff can become overburdened with hundreds of additional cases on top of their normal workload.
All other responders will be impacted in similar proportions to the general public, thereby reducing available responders. Adverse impacts are expected to be severe for unprotected personnel and uncertain for trained and protected personnel, depending on the nature of the incident.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had severe impacts on healthcare workers and other responders. The difficulty of trying to protect themselves and their families while still doing their jobs was exacerbated initially by shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE). The mental health impacts on responders and healthcare workers have not been fully quantified but are likely to have impacts for months if not years to #1..
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come. Other responders will be impacted similarly to the general public, although the nature of their jobs may make social distancing more difficult, which could potentially lead to higher infection rates, thereby reducing available responders.
Unscheduled sick leave from a large portion of the workforce could result in loss of productivity and delivery of services. Even without large numbers of infected workers, social distancing requirements and workplace closures can have a major impact on the government’s ability to deliver services, as seen during the COVID19 pandemic. As residents are quarantined, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic the demand for deliveries of essential goods will also increase.
The ability to respond and recover may be questioned and challenged if planning, response, and recovery are not timely and effective. Help from the federal government and other states would likely be limited, as all personnel would be deployed throughout the country already. While the federal government would do what they can, communities would have to rely on their own resources for a much longer period of time as compared to other disasters. It is expected that the government will work towards a solution that will end the pandemic, typically by helping to distribute vaccines and antiviral agents. Continual public messaging and outreach are vital.
Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
In the event of a pandemic, especially one with high transmission rates and mortality rates such as COVID19, community lifelines, such as healthcare facilities will be heavily affected and may be overwhelmed due to the limited number of beds, doctor and medical staff, laboratory testing capacity, and possible PPE shortages. Indirect impacts can also result in these facilities being temporarily offline due to testing or other precautionary monitoring and downed systems. Further, outbreaks in small cities and counties may cause medical facilities to reach capacity very quickly. Other critical facilities and infrastructure are not directly affected by a pandemic but may have difficulty maintaining operations and maintenance activities due to a significantly decreased workforce. Schools may also be forced to close due to faculty and staffing shortages.
Economy
Pandemics can have extensive economic impacts, as evidenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions on social gatherings. Social distancing requirements have affected nearly every segment of the local and national economy, most notably the restaurant and hospitality industries.
Additionally, tourism may be impacted in affected areas. As a result, the unemployment rate can increase, which also occurred in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Other economic impacts including varying disruptions in the food supply chains and other essential medical services.
Historic, Cultural and Natural Resources
Impacts on these resources are typically minimal.
Future Development
Population growth and development contribute to pandemic exposure. Future development in and around Stanislaus County has the potential to change how infectious diseases spread through the community and impact human health in both the short- and long-term. New development may increase the number of people and facilities exposed to public health hazards and greater population concentrations (often found in special needs facilities, businesses, and school campuses) put more people at risk. During a disease outbreak those in the immediate isolation area would have little to no warning, whereas, the population further away in the dispersion path may have some time to prepare and mitigate against disease depending on the hazard, its transmission, and public notification.
Risk Summary
• Pandemics affecting the U.S. occur roughly once every 20 years but cannot be reliably predicted. • Valley Fever is especially prevalent in California’s Central Valley, including Stanislaus County; people and animals can catch Valley Fever and get sick when they breathe in dust that contains the Valley Fever fungus, which usually infects the lungs and can cause respiratory symptoms. • Effects on people will vary, but a significant portion of the population could become ill and may need to be hospitalized.
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• Effects on property are typically minimal, although quarantines could result in short-term closures. • Community lifelines, such as healthcare facilities, like hospitals will be impacted and may be overwhelmed and have difficulty maintaining operations due to bed availability, medical staffing shortages, and lack of PPE and other supplies.
• Lost productivity due to illness and potential business closures could potentially have severe economic impacts, such as increased unemployment rates in the County. Social distancing requirements and fear of public gatherings could also significantly reduce in-person commerce. • The hazard is considered high significance across all participating jurisdictions. • Ongoing mitigation activities should focus on disease prevention, especially during flu season. This includes, but is not limited to, pre-season community outreach campaigns to educate the public about risks and available support; establishing convenient vaccination centers; reaching out to vulnerable populations and care givers; and issuing advisories and warnings.
Table 4-72 Hazard Risk Summary – Public Health Hazards
Jurisdiction Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future Occurrence
Magnitude/
Severity
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Stanislaus County Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes City of Ceres Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes
City of Hughson Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes
City of Modesto Extensive Occasional Critical High No
City of Newman Extensive Occasional Critical High No
City of Oakdale Extensive Occasional Critical High No
City of Patterson Extensive Occasional Critical High No City of Riverbank Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes City of Turlock Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes
City of Waterford Extensive Occasional Critical High No County Office of Education Extensive Occasional Critical High Yes
4.3.11 Severe Weather: General
The climate in the Central Valley is defined generally by hot, dry summers and foggy, rainy winters. Severe weather is generally any destructive weather event, but usually occurs in Stanislaus County as localized thunderstorms that bring heavy rain and strong winds that occur most often during the winter and spring months. The agricultural industry is among the most vulnerable asset to severe weather. Agricultural losses resulting from natural hazards can have dramatic impacts on the economic health of Stanislaus County.
For this plan, adverse weather is broken down as follows:
• Dense Fog
• Heavy Rain, Thunderstorm, Hail, Lightning
• High Wind/Tornado
NOAA’s NCEI has been tracking adverse weather since 1950. Their Storm Events Database contains data on the following: all weather events from 1993 to 2017 (except from 6/1993-7/1993); and additional data from the Storm Prediction Center, which includes tornadoes (1950-1992), thunderstorm winds (1955-1992), and hail (1955-1992). This database contains 254 storm events that occurred in Stanislaus County between January 1, 1950, and December 2021. Table 4-73 summarizes these events.
Table 4-73 NCEI Hazard Event Reports for Stanislaus County, 1950-2021 Hazard # of
Events
Property Loss
($) Crop Loss ($) Deaths Injuries USDA RMA Losses***
Cold/wind Chill 11 $0 $0 1 0 $0
Dense Fog* 9 $890,000 $0 3 6 $0
Dense Smoke 1 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Drought 27 $0 $1,500,000,000**** 0 0 $90,695
Excessive Heat 3 $0 $0 0 0 $0
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Hazard # of
Events
Property Loss
($) Crop Loss ($) Deaths Injuries USDA RMA Losses***
Extreme Cold/Wind Chill 2 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Flood 12 $380,000 $0 2 1 $1,028,578
Frost/Freeze* 7 $500,000 $20,000,000 0 0 $11,581,182
Funnel Cloud 12 $0 $0 0 0
Hail 5 $5,110 $300,000 0 5 $2,500,684
Heat 35 $0 $0 2 0 $25,530,144
Heavy Rain 45 $750,000 $10,450,000 0 0 $32,037,565
High Wind 19 $4,913,000 $0 0 3 $1,721,079*
Lightning 3 $220,000 $0 0 0 $0
Heat* 13 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Strong Wind 6 $150,500 $0 2 2 $0
Thunderstorm Wind 9 $150,000 $0 1 0 $0
Tornado 12 $1,351,000 $200,000 0 1 $0
Wildfire 4 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Winter Storm 1 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Winter Weather 1 $0 $0 0 0 $0
Total 284 $11,334,610 $1,534,293,000 11 27 $74,489,927
Source: National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ *Hazards with wide extents reflect larger zones that extend beyond Stanislaus County. ** Value based on “Wind/Excess Wind” category of the USDA RMA database. *** USDA RMA data is for the year 2007 – 2020.
**** This value represents the overall crop loss caused by drought in California during the year 2014. NCEI database does not have a specific crop loss value for Stanislaus County during the year 2014 and shows no crop loss during other years.
The NCEI table above summarizes adverse weather events that have occurred in Stanislaus County from 1950 to 2021. Only a few of the events actually resulted in state and federal disaster declarations. It is interesting to note that different data sources capture different events during the same time period, and often different information specific to the same events. While the HMPC recognizes these inconsistencies, this data provides value in depicting the County’s “big picture” hazard environment as it relates to severe weather.
Due to size of the County and changes in elevation and climate, weather conditions can vary greatly across the County. The profiles that follow provide information from two weather stations in different parts of the County: Newman weather station in the southern and southwestern part of the County (1902-2016) and the Modesto City CO AP Weather Station in the central of the County (1906-2016). The temperature data from these two weather stations are displayed in Subsection 4.3.12 below.
4.3.12 Severe Weather: Dense Fog
Hazard/Problem Description
Fog results from air being cooled to the point where it can no longer hold all of the water vapor it contains.
For example, rain can cool and moisten the air near the surface until fog forms. A cloud-free, humid air mass at night can lead to fog formation, where land and water surfaces that have warmed up during the summer are still evaporating water into the atmosphere. This is called radiation fog. A warm moist air mass blowing over a cold surface also can cause fog to form, which is called advection fog.
The interior California valleys have a unique fog problem called the tule fogs. The tule fog is a radiation fog, which condenses when there is a high relative humidity, typically after a heavy rain, calm winds, and rapid cooling during the night. The longer nights during the winter months create this rapid ground cooling and results in a pronounced temperature inversion at a low altitude, creating a thick ground fog. Above the cold, foggy layer, the air is typically warm and dry. Once the fog has formed, turbulent air is necessary to break through the inversion. Daytime heating can also work to evaporate the fog in some areas. The tule fogs get their name from the tule reeds, which grew around the swamps and deltas of the great Tulare Lake that once covered the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley. #1..
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The tule fog season in Stanislaus County is typically in the late fall and winter (November through March) but can occur as late as May. Fog typically forms rapidly in the early morning hours. Tule fogs can last for days, sometimes weeks. Fog can have devastating effects on transportation corridors in the County.
Nighttime driving in the fog is dangerous and multi-car pileups have resulted from drivers using excessive speed for the conditions and visibility. Tule fog has also been found to be connected to air pollution and exacerbates the naturally occurring fog. A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 2019 found that air pollution is a key contributor to the seasonal fog, and due to the passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970, it has declined about 75 percent since 1980 (Gray 2019). Figure 4-36 illustrates the extent of tule fog over the Central Valley.
Figure 4-36 Tule Fog over Central Valley
Source: NASA, Jeff Schmaltz, January 5, 2005
Geographic Area
Extensive – The San Joaquin Valley is hemmed in on three sides by mountain ranges, with resulting inversion layers trapping cooler air on the valley floor. This predisposes the Planning Area to severe episodes of fog in winter months, when barometric pressures are high, humidity is increased, and ambient temperatures are low. All areas of the County are vulnerable to dense fog events.
Extent (Magnitude/Severity)
Critical – Tule fog forms on clear nights when the ground is moist, and the wind is near calm and can be widespread throughout the San Joaquin Valley. On nights like this, the ground cools rapidly. In turn, the moist air above it cools and causes water vapor to condense. Once it has formed, the air must be heated enough to either evaporate the fog or lift it above the surface so that visibilities improve. Common areas for tule fog to form include foothills and valleys. Visibility in tule fog is usually less than an eighth of a mile (about 600 ft or 200 m) but can be much lower. Visibility can vary rapidly; in only a few feet, visibility can go from 10 feet (3.0 m) to near zero.
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Fog contributes to transportation accidents and is a significant life safety hazard. These accidents can cause multiple injuries and deaths and could have serious implications for human health and the environment if a hazardous or nuclear waste shipment were involved. Other disruptions from fog include delayed emergency response vehicles and school closures.
In 2018 the NWS in Hanford, California developed the Experimental Fog Severity Index in conjunction with the NWS issues fog advisories to help give motorists advance warning of fog events. A dense fog advisory is issued when widespread dense fog develops, and visibilities drop to one-quarter of a mile or less. The Fog Severity Index has five levels with level 5 being the most severe. Figure 4-37 describes each level of the Index.
Figure 4-37 National Weather Service Experimental Fog Severity Index Source: NWS
Past Occurrences
The NCEI records nine dense fog events in the Northern San Joaquin Valley between 1950 and 2021 (refer to Table 4-73 above). Although only one of these nine events happened within Stanislaus County, Tule Fog is prevalent all over San Joaquin Valley and accidents have happened in adjacent and other nearby counties. Also, according to other sources, a few accidents caused by dense fog have happened in Stanislaus County. The following is the description of this one event of record in the NCEI Storm Events Database as well as other two incidents from additional media sources:
• December 16, 1996 – In the City of Modesto a man died when his pick-up collided with a double tractortrailer in the poor visibility. • January 13, 2015 – two cars collided at 7:15 am on Fulkerth Road west of Faith Home Road near Turlock. One driver was severely injured. California Highway Patrol (CHP) arrived at the scene on time and the injured received medical support immediately, however, the dense fog prevented a medical helicopter from flying in. American Medical Response’s responders mentioned that dense fog can create serious problems for responders, and the fog in rural locations such as Turlock tends to be even denser, which causes more trouble to responders. (Modesto Bee 2015). #1..
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• December 21, 2021 – In the City of Turlock a woman was driving an SUV southbound on Highway 99 at a high rate of speed when she ran into the back of a slower big rig. The crash happened just after midnight on 99 north of Linwood Avenue, in dense fog conditions. The crash caused the woman to lose control onto the shoulder and then crashed into a fence and a tree. The crash caused major damage to her SUV, which then burst into flames, and the woman died at the scene. The driver of the big rig was not injured. (KMPH 2020).
Probability of Future Occurrences
Likely – According to Table 4-73, nine dense fogs impacted Stanislaus County during a 72-year period, which equates to a major dense fog event every 8 years and a 12.5 percent chance of a major fog event in any given year. Therefore, based on NCEI data and other reported accidents caused by fog according to media sources, together with the fact that the tule fog prevails in the San Joaquin Valley, it is likely that fog events will continue to occur regularly in Stanislaus County.
Climate Change Considerations
California’s winter tule fog has declined dramatically over the past three decades, raising a red flag for the state’s multibillion-dollar agricultural industry, according to researchers at UC Berkeley. Crops such as almonds, pistachios, cherries, apricots and peaches go through a necessary winter dormant period brought on and maintained by colder temperatures. Tule fog that descends upon the State’s Central Valley between late fall and early spring, helps contribute to this winter chill.
When there is an insufficient rest period (or lack of dormant time for crops) it impairs the ability of farmers to achieve high quality fruit yields. The UC Berkeley findings have implications for the entire country since many of these California crops account for 95 percent of U.S. production. The researchers also paired NASA and NOAA satellite records with data from a network of University of California weather stations, covering 32 consecutive winters. Based on the data, there was a great deal of variability from year to year, but on average, the researchers found a 46 percent drop in the number of fog days between the first of November and the end of February. Climate forecasts suggest that the accumulation of winter chill will continue to decrease in the Central Valley. Tule fog was also less prevalent in recent years in part due to the multi-year drought.
While the short‐term fog variability is dominantly driven by climate fluctuations, the longer‐term temporal and spatial changes in fog have been driven by changes in air pollution. The Clean Air Act has also greatly reduced the air pollution that would form fogs.
Vulnerability Assessment
General Property
Based on historic information, the primary effect of fog has not resulted in significant damages to property, and the losses are typically covered by insurance. Dense fog does result in substantial vehicle damage during transportation-related accidents.
People
Reduced visibility is the greatest risk to people when heavy fog is prevalent. Particularly when fog is dense, it can be hazardous to drivers, mariners and aviators and contributes to numerous accidents each year. To reduce injury and harm, people should avoid driving when dense fog is prevalent, if possible. If driving is pertinent, emergency services advise driving with lights on low beam, watching for CHP pace vehicles to guide through fog, avoiding stopping on highways, and avoiding crossing traffic lanes.
Government Services
The impact of fog on government services structures and buildings should be similar to the impacts on general property. Dense fog can create serious problems for responders by slowing down the speed of responders and preventing them from arriving at accident scenes on time. The impact of dense fog on public confidence in government is minimal.
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Critical Facilities
Fog can have devastating effects on transportation corridors in the County. Multi-car pileups have resulted from drivers using excessive speed for the conditions and visibility. These accidents can cause multiple injuries and deaths and could have serious implications for human health and the environment if a hazardous or nuclear waste shipment were involved. Other disruptions from tule or dense fog include delayed emergency response vehicles and school closures.
Economy
Economic impacts due to dense fog are generally related to road closures leading to a decrease in travel to businesses. Other economic impacts relate to property damages to vehicles from accidents. As shown in Table 4-73 above there is a recorded $890,000 of property damages as a result of dense fog all of which are from traffic accidents in the Central Valley and San Joaquin Valley. Based on that amount, this region including Stanislaus County has an estimated average loss expectancy of $12,361 due to dense fog events.
Historic, Cultural and Natural Resources
As referred to in the Climate Change Considerations section, California’s winter tule fog has declined dramatically over the past three decades, raising a red flag for the State’s multibillion-dollar agricultural industry. Crops such as almonds, pistachios, cherries, apricots and peaches go through a necessary winter dormant period brought on and maintained by colder temperatures and tule fog that descends upon the State’s Central Valley between late fall and early spring, helps contribute to this winter chill.
Future Development
Population and commercial growth both within and outside the County will increase the potential for complications with traffic accidents and commerce interruptions associated with dense fog.
Risk Summary
• Tule fog season begins in late fall and lasts from winter (November – March). • Between 1950 and 2021 there were nine dense fog events that impacted Stanislaus County during a 72-year period, which equates to a major dense fog event every 8 years and a 12.5 percent chance of a major fog event in any given year.
• Dense fog events in the Central Valley and north San Joaquin Valley have resulted in $890,000 in property damages, largely due to traffic accidents.
• Fog can have devastating effects on transportation corridors and result in casualties; fog can prevent responders to arrive on scene timely.
• Major fog events in the County are estimated to occur every 8 years or a 12.5% chance in any given year.
Related Hazards – Hazardous Materials Incidents
Table 4-74 Hazard Risk Summary – Dense Fog
Jurisdiction Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/
Severity
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Stanislaus County Extensive Likely Critical Medium Yes
City of Ceres Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Hughson Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Modesto Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Newman Extensive Likely Critical Medium Yes
City of Oakdale Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Patterson Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Riverbank Extensive Likely Critical Medium Yes
City of Turlock Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
City of Waterford Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
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4.3.13 Severe Weather: Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Hail, and Lightning Hazard/ Problem Description
Hail
Hail forms on condensation nuclei such as dust or ice crystals, when supercooled water freezes on contact.
In clouds containing large numbers of supercooled water droplets, these ice nuclei grow quickly at the expense of the liquid droplets. The hail grows increasingly larger. Once a hailstone becomes too heavy to be supported by the storm’s updraft it falls out of the cloud. Hailstones are usually from the size of a pea to the size of a golf ball.
Heavy Rain
A majority of adverse weather experienced in Stanislaus takes place in the winter months as heavy rain and thunderstorm events that are sometimes accompanied by high winds, dense fog events.
Stanislaus’s weather is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and routine climate patterns such as El Niño. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a pattern found in the tropical Pacific when there are fluctuations in temperatures between the ocean and atmosphere. During El Niño, the surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are weaker than normal and the ocean surface is at above-average temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (Leisure 2014). El Niño typically develops over North America during the winter season, causing the severe winter storms the County often experiences. This climate pattern occurs every few years and brings with it above-average rain and snow across the southern region of the United States, especially in California.
Atmospheric rivers, another climate pattern that leads to adverse weather in the County, are responsible for up to 50 percent of California’s precipitation annually and 65 percent seasonally (Arcuni 2019). An atmospheric river (AR) is a long, narrow region of the atmosphere, like a river in the sky, that transports most of the water vapor outside of the tropics. ARs can be 300 miles wide, a mile deep and more than 1,000 miles long and carry an amount of water vapor roughly the same as the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River (NOAA 2015). Warm water storms over the Pacific Ocean lead to evaporation and create a high concentration of moisture in the air while prevailing winds create the distinctive river shape, which is often compared “to a fire hose pointed at California” (Arcuni 2019). When an AR reaches land, it releases water vapor in the form of rain or snow. ARs play an important role in the global water cycle and are closely tied to both water supply and flooding risk.
Research suggests that atmospheric rivers contributed to the collapse of both Oroville Dam spillways in February 2017 (NASA Global Hydrology Resource Center), as well as the winter flooding in 1861-1862, which completely inundated Sacramento and is considered the worst flood event in California’s history (Ingram 2013). When an atmospheric river forms in the tropical regions of the Pacific near Hawaii it is known as a “Pineapple Express”. This type of atmospheric river can produce as much as five inches in one day (NOAA 2018). In 2018 two Pineapple Express ARs hit California, causing significant heavy precipitation events throughout the State.
Thunderstorms
Thunderstorms are formed from a combination of moisture, rapidly rising warm air, and a force capable of lifting air, such as warm and cold fronts or a mountain. Thunderstorms may occur alone, in clusters, or in lines. As a result, several thunderstorms can affect one location in the course of a few hours. A thunderstorm can produce lightning, thunder, and rainfall and may also lead to the formation of tornadoes, hail, downbursts, and microbursts of wind. Electricity can be interrupted by lightning strikes and property damage can occur if hailstones reach a large diameter. As a result, recreational activities can also be interrupted.
During the summer, climatic factors combine to promote the development of thunderstorms.
Lightning
Lightning is an electrical discharge between positive and negative regions of a thunderstorm. A lightning flash is composed of a series of strokes with an average of about four strokes per flash. The length and duration of each lightning stroke vary but typically average about 30 microseconds. #1..
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Geographic Area
Extensive – Heavy rain is generally expansive in size. The entire County is susceptible to any of the effects of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Hail and lightning events are also common in the County, which can impact any area of the County during any month of the year.
Extent (Magnitude/Severity)
Critical – The extent for heavy rain, thunderstorms, hail, and lightning weather events can affect up to 50 percent of property in the County. These weather events can also shutdown of facilities and result in severe injuries.
Hail
The NWS classifies hail by diameter size, and corresponding everyday objects to help relay scope and severity to the population. Table 4-75 indicates the hailstone measurements utilized by the NWS.
Table 4-75 Hail Measurements
Average Diameter Corresponding Household Object
.25 inch Pea
.5 inch Marble/Mothball
.75 inch Dime/Penny
.875 inch Nickel
1.0 inch Quarter
1.5 inch Ping-pong ball
1.75 inch Golf Ball
2.0 inch Hen Egg
2.5 inch Tennis Ball
2.75 inch Baseball
3.00 inch Teacup
4.00 inch Grapefruit
4.5 inch Softball
Source: NWS
There is no clear distinction between storms that do and do not produce hailstones. Nearly all severe thunderstorms probably produce hail aloft, though it may melt before reaching the ground. Multi-cell thunderstorms produce many hailstones, but not usually the largest hailstones. In the life cycle of the multicell thunderstorm, the mature stage is relatively short so there is not much time for the growth of the hailstone. Supercell thunderstorms have sustained updrafts that support large hail formation by repeatedly lifting the hailstones into the very cold air at the top of the thunderstorm cloud. In general, hail two inches (5 cm) or larger in diameter is associated with supercells (a little larger than golf ball size which the NWS considers to be 1.75 inches.). Non-supercell storms are capable of producing golf ball-size hail.
In all cases, the hail falls when the thunderstorm’s updraft can no longer support the weight of the ice. The stronger the updraft the larger the hailstone can grow. When viewed from the air, it is evident that hail falls in paths known as hail swaths. They can range in size from a few acres to areas 10 miles wide and 100 miles long. In some instances, piles of hail have been so deep that snowplows were required to remove them, and occasionally hail drifts have been reported. Severe hailstorms can be destructive to property.
Vehicles, roofs of buildings and homes, and landscaping are the most commonly damaged by hail. Hail has been known to cause injury to humans and occasionally has been fatal.
Heavy Rain
The heavy precipitation events that Stanislaus County and all of California experience are often the results of an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are categorized by a unit of measurement known as the Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT), which takes into account the amount of water vapor in the system and the wind that moves it around. For a storm to be classified as an AR it has to reach an IVT threshold of 250 units; 1,000 IVT or more is considered to be “extreme” (Arcuni 2019). In 2019 a system for categorizing the strength and impacts of atmospheric rivers was developed by the Center for Western #1..
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Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), out of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
The newly developed scale ranks ARs into five categories from weak to exceptional. Unlike the Fujita Scale for tornadoes that focuses on potential damages, the AR scale accounts for both storms that may be hazardous and storms that can provide benefits to the local water supply. A category one AR is considered to be primarily beneficial, generally lasting only 24 hours and producing modest rainfall. While a category five AR is considered “exceptional” and primarily hazardous, lasting for several days and associated with heavy rainfall and runoff that may cause significant damages. Table 4-76 below describes the scale further.
The CW3E developed the scale as a tool for officials with an operational need to assess flooding potential in their jurisdictions before the storms make landfall.
Table 4-76 Atmospheric River Categories
Category Potential Impacts
AR Cat 1: Weak Primarily beneficial. For example, a Feb. 2, 2017 AR hit California, lasted 24 hours at the coast, and produced modest rainfall.
AR Cat 2: Moderate Mostly beneficial, but also somewhat hazardous. An atmospheric river on Nov. 19-20, 2016 hit Northern California, lasted 42 hours at the coast, and produced several inches of rain that helped replenish low reservoirs after a drought.
AR Cat 3: Strong Balance of beneficial and hazardous. An atmospheric river on Oct. 14-15, 2016 lasted 36 hours at the coast, produced 5-10 inches of rain that helped refill reservoirs after a drought, but also caused some rivers to rise to just below flood stage.
AR Cat 4: Extreme Mostly hazardous, but also beneficial. For example, an atmospheric river on Jan. 8-9, 2017 that persisted for 36 hours produced up to 14 inches of rain in the Sierra Nevada and caused at least a dozen rivers to reach flood stage.
AR Cat 5: Exceptional Primarily hazardous. For example, a Dec. 29, 1996 to Jan. 2, 1997 atmospheric river lasted over 100 hours at the Central California coast. The associated heavy precipitation and runoff caused more than $1 billion in damages.
Source: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. Scale was developed by F. Martin Ralph Director of CW3E in collaboration with Jonathan Rutz of NWS In both February 2018 and 2019 the West Coast experienced six ARs. But as shown in Figure 4-38 from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes shows, California experienced vastly different precipitation totals due to the location of where the atmospheric river made landfall as well as each atmospheric river’s IVT. Using the AR scale developed by CW3E, the ARs in February 2019 were all considered to be moderate to extreme and concentrated more on California, resulting in heavy precipitation, whereas the ARs in February 2018 did not really impact California. #1..
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Figure 4-38 Atmospheric River Strength and Land Distribution, February 2018 vs. February 2019 Source: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego #1..
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Thunderstorms
Although thunderstorm events by themselves may not create significant damage or danger to the County, hail, lightning and high winds events that happen together with thunderstorm events can all have damaging effects.
Lightning
Lightning is measured by the Lightning Activity Level (LAL) scale, created by the NWS to define lightning activity into a specific categorical scale. The LAL is a common parameter that is part of fire weather forecasts nationwide. The County is at risk to experience lightning in any of these categories. The LAL is reproduced in Table 4-77.
Table 4-77 Lightning Activity Level Scale
LAL 1 No thunderstorms.
LAL 2 Isolated thunderstorms. Light rain will occasionally reach the ground. Lightning is very infrequent, 1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five-minute period.
LAL 3 Widely scattered thunderstorms. Light to moderate rain will reach the ground. Lightning is infrequent, 6 to 10 cloud to ground strikes in a five-minute period.
LAL 4 Scattered thunderstorms. Moderate rain is commonly produced. Lightning is frequent, 11 to 15 cloud to ground strikes in a five-minute period.
LAL 5 Numerous thunderstorms. Rainfall is moderate to heavy. Lightning is frequent and intense, greater than 15 cloud to ground strikes in a five-minute period.
LAL 6 Dry lightning (same as LAL 3 but without rain). This type of lightning has the potential for extreme fire activity and is normally highlighted in fire weather forecasts with a Red Flag warning.
Source: NWS
Lightning is a common factor in new wildfire starts in the Sierra Nevada, though no specific information is available for Stanislaus County. The relationship of lightning to wildfire ignitions in the County increases the significance of this hazard. Lightning strikes are more likely at higher elevations, such as mountain peaks, and may pose a threat to hikers, climbers, and other recreational users.
Past Occurrences
Hail
Hail events are common in the County. Figure 4-41 shows that different areas within the Planning Area, SOI, and other areas in the vicinity have historically experienced hail events. Several hail events during which quarter and even golf ball-sized hailstones fell happened in recent years. As shown in Table 4-78, since 1950, there have been five reports of hail events that caused around $5,110 property loss and $300,000 crop loss in combination with five injuries in Stanislaus County. (NOAA NCEI 2021). The following table shows the records collected from the NCEI Strom Events Database for hail.
Table 4-78 Hail Events in Stanislaus County, 1950-2021
Location Date Property Damages ($) Crop Damages ($)
Oakdale 3/11/1996 $0 $0
Multi-County 3/28/1998 $0 $300,000
Turlock 5/9/2005 $5,000 $0
Denair 5/9/2005 $10 $0
Oakdale 4/27/2016 $100 $0
Total: $5,110 $300,000
Source: NCEI Database
Heavy Rain
Heavy rains and adverse storms occur in Stanislaus County primarily during the late fall and winter but have a chance of occurring in every month of the year. According to information obtained from the WRCC, #1..
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the majority of precipitation is produced by storms during January and other winter months. Precipitation during the summer months is in the form of rain showers and is rare.
The NCEI records show heavy rainstorms can cause widespread flooding, which can lead to extensive localized drainage issues. In addition to the flooding that often occurs during these storms, strong winds, when combined with saturated ground conditions, can down very mature trees. Refer to the Flood section for more information related to flooding events in the County. There have been eight federal and state disaster declarations (1964, 1969, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2006 and 2017) for heavy rain, severe storm and flooding in Stanislaus County. In addition, there have four USDA disaster designations (2012, 2016, 2017 and 2019) for excessive rainfall and also one for hailstorm in Stanislaus County (refer to Table 4-3 and Table 4-4 for details).
Information from the two representative weather stations introduced in Subsection 4.3.11 Severe Weather:
General are summarized below and in Figure 4-39 through Figure 4-42.
Newman Weather Station (1902-2016)
Information from the Newman weather station is summarized below in Figure 4-39 and Figure 4-40. This station covers the southern and southwestern portion of the County. The average annual precipitation recorded at this weather station is 10.69 inches per year. The highest recorded annual precipitation was
22.56 inches in 1998; the highest recorded precipitation for a 24-hour period is 4.1 inches on January 17, 1988. The lowest recorded annual precipitation was 3.34 inches in 1953.
Figure 4-39 Newman Weather Station Monthly Average Total Precipitation (Period of Record 1902-2016)
Source: WRCC, www.wrcc.dri.edu/
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Figure 4-40 Newman Weather Station Daily Precipitation Average and Extreme (Period of Record 1902-2016)
Source: WRCC, www.wrcc.dri.edu/
Modesto City CO AP Weather Station (1906-2016)
Information from the Modesto City CO AP Weather Station is summarized below in Figure 4-41 and Figure 4-42. The Modesto City CO AP weather stations covers the central portion of the County. The average annual precipitation recorded at this weather station is 12.21 inches per year. The highest recorded annual precipitation was 27.39 inches in 1983; the highest recorded precipitation for a 24-hour period is 2.72 inches on March 4, 1978. The lowest recorded annual precipitation was 5.7 inches in 1929. #1..
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Figure 4-41 Modesto City CO AP Weather Station Monthly Average Total Precipitation (Period of Record 1906-2016)
Source: WRCC, www.wrcc.dri.edu/
Figure 4-42 Modesto City CO AP Weather Station Daily Precipitation Average and Extreme (Period of Record 1906-2016)
Source: WRCC, www.wrcc.dri.edu/
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The NCEI Storm Events Database records 45 heavy rain events in Stanislaus County between 1950 and 2021. No casualties are recorded for any of the events. As noted above there is a connection between heavy rain events and flooding and is it assumed that the property damages listed in the NCEI database are the results of flooding caused by heavy rain events. Table 4-79 shows the records collected from the NCEI Strom Events Database for heavy rain.
Table 4-79 Heavy Rain Events in Stanislaus County, 1950-2021 Location Date Property Damages ($) Crop Damages ($)
Countywide 11/23/1996 $25,000 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Multi-County 11/10/1997 $0 $0
Countywide 1/12/1998 $0 $0
Countywide 1/18/1998 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/4/1998 $0 $5,000,000
Multi-County 9/9/1998 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/22/1999 $0 $5,000,000
Multi-County 2/1/2000 $0 $0
Multi-County 2/13/2000 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/1/2000 $0 $250,000
Multi-County 7/2/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 7/5/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/3/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/3/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/3/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/3/2001 $0 $0
Multi-County 9/3/2001 $0 $0
Countywide 3/22/2005 $25,000 $0
Countywide 9/20/2005 $0 $0
Countywide 12/17/2005 $0 $0
Countywide 4/2/2006 $600,000 $200,000
Countywide 12/12/2006 $0 $0
Countywide 4/22/2007 $0 $0
Countywide 7/24/2007 $0 $0
Countywide 10/12/2007 $0 $0
Countywide 1/4/2008 $0 $0
Countywide 10/4/2008 $0 $0
Countywide 10/13/2009 $0 $0
Countywide 1/27/2021 $100,000 $0
Total $750,000 $10,450,000
Source: NCEI
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Thunderstorms
It is important to note that county-level thunderstorm data is not available, however, as noted above, thunderstorm events are not uncommon in the County, especially during summer months.
Lightning
As noted above, lightning events are not uncommon in the County. As shown in, since 1950, there have been 3 reports of lightning events that caused around $220,000 property loss in Stanislaus County. (NOAA NCEI 2021). The following table shows the records collected from the NCEI Strom Events Database for lightning.
Table 4-80 Lightning Events in Stanislaus County, 1950-2021 Location Date Property Damages ($) Crop Damages ($)
Westley 9/22/1999 $0 $0
Oakdale 3/21/2017 $200,000 $0
Oakdale 5/25/2018 $20,000 $0
Total: $220,000 $0
Source: NCEI
Probability of Future Occurrences
Highly Likely – Based on the NCEI data, 5 hail events, 45 heavy rain events and three lightning events have occurred in Stanislaus County over 72 years of recordkeeping, which equates to one hail event every
14.4 years, one heavy rain event every 1.6 years and one lightning event every 24 years. When combined, there is a 73.6 percent chance that a major hail, heavy rain, or lightning event will happen in any given year.
Moreover, given that climatic factors will continue influencing the weather and climate at the County and based on historical data, these severe weather events are highly likely to occur in the future. The actual risk to the County is dependent on the nature and location of any given hazard event.
Climate Change Considerations
As average temperatures increase over time, this generally will result in higher extreme temperatures and more warming in the atmosphere can trigger climate changes, which could result in more frequent extreme weather events. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers have also found that ARs will reach the West Coast more frequently (Gao 2015). Currently, the West receives rain or snow from these ARs between 25 and 40 days each year. By the end of this century, days on which the atmospheric rivers reach the coast could increase by a third, or between 35 and 55 days a year.
Figure 4-43 shows the estimated intensity (return level) of extreme precipitations events which are exceeded on average once every 20 years (return period) and how it changes in a warming climate over historical, mid-century and late-century time periods, based on the Cal-Adapt webtool mentioned in 4.1.4 Climate Change Considerations. Under both RCP 4.5 (low-emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (highemissions scenario), precipitation level will increase throughout the century. When using the average simulation, precipitation will increase from around 2 inches to almost 3.4 inches by 2099 under the lowemissions scenario and will increase from around 2 inches to around 3.2 inches by 2099 under the highemissions scenario. For these graphs that were exported from Cal-Adapt, extreme precipitation events are defined as days during a water year (Oct–Sep) with 2-day rainfall totals above an extreme threshold of 0.74 inches.
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Figure 4-43 Predicted Future Changes in Intensity of Extreme Precipitation Events – Under Low-emissions and High-emissions Scenarios for Stanislaus County Source: Cal-Adapt 2021
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Vulnerability Assessment
General Property
The Stanislaus County Planning Area experiences a rainy season in the winter months through early spring.
These winter storms can include significant precipitation. The primary effect of these storms has not resulted in significant injury or damages to people and property, or the losses are typically covered by insurance. It is the secondary hazards caused by weather, such as floods, that have had the greatest impact on the County. Damage and disaster declarations related to adverse weather have occurred and will continue to occur in the future. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are the most frequent type of severe weather occurrences in the County. Utility outages, downing of trees, debris blocking streets and property damage can be a direct result of these storm events. Properties in poor condition may risk the most damage given the nature of these types of storms, the entire County is potentially at risk.
People
Exposure is the greatest danger to people from heavy rain events. People can be caught in rising waters and need to be rescued. Populations living at higher elevations in the eastern and western portions of the County with large stands of trees or power lines may be more susceptible to power outages, while populations in low-lying areas are at risk for possible flooding.
Vulnerable populations are the elderly, low income or linguistically isolated populations, people with lifethreatening illnesses, and residents living in areas that are isolated from major roads. Power outages can be life-threatening to those dependent on electricity for life support. Isolation of these populations is a significant concern. These populations face isolation and exposure during hail, heavy rain, lightning, and thunderstorms events, and could suffer the secondary effects of the hazard. Hikers and climbers in the area may also be more vulnerable to severe weather events.
Critical Facilities
Transportation infrastructure can be affected by hail, heavy rain, and lightning events, mostly associated with secondary hazards. Landslides caused by heavy prolonged rains can block roads. Of particular concern are roads providing access to isolated areas and the elderly, especially given that limited local roads and highways are available to move people and supplies throughout the region. Prolonged obstruction of major routes due to landslides, debris, or floodwaters can disrupt the shipment of goods and other commerce.
Severe windstorms and downed trees can create serious impacts on power and above-ground communication lines. Loss of electricity and phone connection would leave certain populations isolated because residents would be unable to call for assistance. Lightning events can have similarly destructive effects on power and information systems. Failure of these systems would have cascading effects throughout the County and could disrupt critical facility functions. Downed power lines can cause blackouts, leaving large areas isolated.
Economy
The economic impact of heavy rain and hail events is typically short-term. Lightning events can cause power outages and fires. Generally, long-term economic impacts center more around hazards that cascade from a heavy rain event such as flooding. In general, all severe weather poses a risk to the agriculture economy in the County. Table 4-81 and Table 4-82 below describe the crops losses related to hail and heavy rain lightning events and associated indemnity amounts or loss payments from the USDA, RMA in the past 14 years. Please note that RMA does not keep lightning-related data. Stanislaus County experiences an estimated $2,467,018 annualized loss due to crop damages from hail and heavy rain events.
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Table 4-81 Crops Loss Due to Hail, RMA Crop Indemnity Reports, 2007-2020 Year Net Determined Acres Indemnity
Amount
2007 51.90 $33,096
2009 117.00 $89,396
2010 6.10 $2,366
2011 20.19 $15,347
2012 437.93 $520,669
2013 688.10 $427,219
2014 259.91 $527,474
2015 216.40 $264,890
2016 55.24 $67,210
2017 15.85 $26,437
2018 73.10 $171,158
2019 403.53 $186,877
2020 113.45 $168,545
Total 2,458.7 $2,500,684
Source: USDA RMA
Table 4-82 Crops Loss Due to Heavy Rain, RMA Crop Indemnity Reports, 2007-2020 Year Net Determined Acres Indemnity Amount
2007 159 $66,027
2008 13 $28,130
2009 3,123 $3,068,360
2010 4,769 $2,866,463
2011 1,777 $1,752,690
2012 660 $690,067
2013 146 $75,778
2014 3,349 $3,232,043
2015 3,064 $2,963,512
2016 2,806 $4,681,825
2017 7,375 $5,520,654
2018 837 $1,040,027
2019 4,210.62 $4,687,789
2020 1,182.33 $1,364,201
Total 33,472.8 $32,037,565
Source: USDA RMA
Governmental Services
Hail, heavy rain and lightning can have limited impacts on the continuity of operations throughout the Planning Area. However, events such as power loss that is caused by severe lighting and poor road conditions that result from heavy rain and flooding-induced landslides and mudflows can interrupt daily services such as delivery services and staff being able to perform their normal job functions.
The impact on responders would be similar to the impact on the general public. can be extensive during a severe winter storm. During these extreme weather events, the public will expect notifications as early as possible and updated frequently as events unfold. The local government agencies are expected to enact severe weather operations timely and accordingly.
Historic, Cultural and Natural Resources
As a natural process, the impacts of most heavy rain events by themselves are part of the overall natural cycle and do not cause long-term consequential damage. However, natural habitats such as streams and trees risk major damage. Prolonged rains can saturate soils and lead to slope failure and potentially landslide events. Flooding events can produce river channel migration or damage riparian habitat. #1..
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Future Development
New critical facilities, such as communication towers should be built to withstand heavy rain damage. Future development projects should consider adverse weather hazards at the planning, engineering and architectural design stage to reduce vulnerability. Stormwater master planning and site review should account for buildings to withstand heavy rain events considered for all new development. Thus, development trends in the County are not expected to increase overall vulnerability to the hazard but all development will be affected by adverse weather and storm events.
Meanwhile, continued development implies continued population growth, which raises the number of individuals potentially exposed to severe weather. Individual citizens, families, and businesses of the County need to be prepared to address severe weather events when they occur. It is recommended that citizens, families, and businesses have an emergency preparedness plan, such as storing extra supplies of food and water, as well as other related supplies such as flashlights, batteries, firewood and have a battery-operated radio within their home or business. In addition, public education efforts should continue to help the population understand the risks and vulnerabilities of outdoor activities, property maintenance, and regular exposures during periods of severe weather.
Risk Summary
• During the 72-year period from 1950 to 2021, five hail events, 45 heavy rain events and three lightning events occurred in Stanislaus County.
• Average annual precipitation ranges from 10.69 inches in the southern and southwestern portions of the County to 12.61 inches in the central portion.
• The County experiences an estimated $2,467,018 annualized crop loss due to hail and heavy rain events.
• Related Hazards – Flooding, Landslide
Table 4-83 Hazard Risk Summary – Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Hail, and Lightning Jurisdiction Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/
Severity
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Stanislaus County Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Yes City of Ceres Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No
City of Hughson Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Modesto Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Newman Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Yes City of Oakdale Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Patterson Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Riverbank Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Turlock Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Waterford Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No County Office of Education Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Yes
4.3.14 Severe Weather: High Wind/Tornado
Hazard/ Problem Description
High winds, often accompanying severe thunderstorms, can cause significant property and crop damage, threaten public safety, and have adverse economic impacts from business closures and power loss.
Windstorms in Stanislaus County are typically straight-line winds. Straight-line winds are generally any thunderstorm wind that is not associated with rotation (i.e., is not a tornado). It is these winds, which can exceed 100 mph that represent the most common type of severe weather and are responsible for most wind damage related to thunderstorms. These winds can overturn mobile homes, tear roofs off houses, topple trees, snap power lines, shatter windows, and sandblast paint from cars. Other associated hazards include utility outages, arcing power lines, debris blocking streets, dust storms, and an occasional structure fire.
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Tornadoes are another severe weather hazard that can affect the Stanislaus County Planning Area.
Tornadoes form when cool, dry air sits on top of warm, moist air. Tornadoes are rotating columns of air marked by a funnel-shaped downward extension of a cumulonimbus cloud whirling at destructive speeds of up to 300 mph, usually accompanying a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are the most powerful storms that exist. They can have the same pressure differential that fuels 300-mile-wide hurricanes across a path only 300-yards wide or less.
Geographic Area
Extensive – Wind and tornadoes have the potential to happen anywhere in the County. The resulting damage from wind and tornado events may be most severe in the downtown areas of incorporate communities where there are more large trees, infrastructure, and higher density development.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collects data on wind resources in the U.S. to help determine the location of new wind energy sites. Figure 4-44 from the NREL Wind Prospector Web viewer shows the average annual wind speed in Stanislaus County at the height of 100 meters. The central portions of the County have average wind speeds between 5.00 meters/second (11.18 mph) and 6.00 meters/second (13.42 mph). The wind speeds in the southwestern portion of the County vary greater than in the eastern portions. The wind speeds in southwestern Stanislaus County could be as low as 4.00 meters/second (8.95 mph) to 4.50 meters/second (10.07 mph) or lower than 4.00 meters/second, however, only a small portion of the eastern county would have wind speeds that are around 4.00 meters/second to
4.50 meters/second, while the majority of the eastern County’s wind speeds are between 5.00 meters/second and 6.00 meters/second.
Figure 4-44 Stanislaus County Average Annual Wind Speed at 100 meters Source: NREL Wind Prospector
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Extent (Magnitude/Severity)
Critical – High winds and tornadoes can cause damage to property and loss of life. While most tornado damage is caused by violent winds, most injuries and deaths result from flying debris. Property damage can include damage to buildings, fallen trees and power lines, broken gas lines, broken sewer and water mains, and the outbreak of fires. Agricultural crops and industries may also be damaged or destroyed.
Access roads and streets may be blocked by debris, delaying the necessary emergency response.
In 2007, the NWS began rating tornadoes using the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-scale). The EF-scale is a set of wind estimates (not measurements) based on damage. It uses three-second gusts estimated at the point of damage based on a judgment of eight levels of damage to the 28 indicators. These estimates vary with height and exposure. Standard measurements are taken by weather stations in open exposures. Table 4-84 describes the EF-scale ratings versus the previous Fujita Scale used prior to 2007 (NOAA 2007).
Table 4-84 The Fujita Scale and Enhanced Fujita Scale
Fujita Scale Derived Operational EF-Scale
F Number
Fastest ¼
Mile (mph)
3-Second
Gust (mph) EF Number
3-Second
Gust (mph) EF Number
3-Second Gusts
(mph)
0 40-72 45-78 0 65-85 0 65-85
1 73-112 79-117 1 86-109 1 86-110
2 113-157 118-161 2 110-137 2 111-135
3 158-207 162-209 3 138-167 3 136-165
4 208-260 210-261 4 168-199 4 166-200
5 261-318 262-317 5 200-234 5 Over 200
Source: NWS. Notes: EF - Enhanced Fujita F – Fujita mph - Miles per Hour Figure 4-45 illustrates the potential impact and damage from a tornado.
Figure 4-45 Potential Impact and Damage from a Tornado
Source: NOAA NWS, Storm Prediction Center
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The damaging effects of wind speed are measured using the Beaufort Wind Scale as shown in Table 4-85 below. This scale only reflects land-based effects and does not take into consideration the effects of wind over water.
Table 4-85 Beaufort Wind Scale
Wind Speed
(mph) Description – Visible Condition
0 Calm; smoke rises vertically
1-4 Light air; direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes 4-7 Light breeze; wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind 8-12 Gentle breeze; leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag 13-18 Moderate breeze; raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved 19-24 Fresh breeze; small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water 25-31 Strong breeze; large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty 32-38 Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind 39-46 Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally, impedes progress 47-54 Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed 55-63 Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs 64-72 Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage 73+ Hurricane devastation occurs
Source: NWS
Based on NCEI records between 1955 and 2021 there have been a combined 34 strong wind/high wind/thunderstorm winds and 30 tornado/funnel cloud events in Stanislaus County, which have resulted in a total of $6,564,500 in property damage. The most damaging event took place on January 4, 2008. A powerful Pacific storm brought widespread winds gusting to 60 mph and in some areas to more than 80 mph across interior Northern California, causing extensive damage and numerous power outages. A 60- mph gust was recorded at Stockton Airport and a 44-mph gust was recorded in Modesto. Numerous homes and business facilities were damaged due directly to the wind and/or by flying debris and falling trees and branches. This wind event resulted in $4,408,000 in property damages (NCEI n.d.). Overall, high wind event impacts would likely be limited, with a majority of impacts being related to property damages caused by downed trees as well as power outages.
In the past 65 years all the tornado events that have taken place in Stanislaus County have been between F0-F1 or EF0 tornadoes. There was only one F2 tornado incident that happened in the year of 1953.
However, it should be noted that, although unlikely, larger tornadoes could occur. Should the County be hit by an EF-3 or higher tornado, it can be extrapolated that because of its relative size and the potential size and length of a tornado’s path, a significant portion of the County could be impacted, resulting in property and crop damage and loss of life. An EF1 tornado event that happened on November 15, 2015 resulted in $1,000,000 property damage and $200,000 crop damage. A worse tornado event could result in more severe damage.
Tornado impacts to the County would likely be negligible, with less than 10 percent of the Planning Area affected by events in the EF0-2 range, though stronger tornadoes are possible. The impact on quality of life or critical facilities and functions in the affected area would depend on where the tornado occurred.
Injuries or deaths are possible due to wind thrown trees or property damage caused by wind events. Overall, impacts from high wind and tornado events would likely be negligible, with less than 10 percent of property severely damaged and shutdown of facilities due to loss of power for 24 hours or less.
Past Occurrences
During the rainy season, the Stanislaus Planning Area is prone to relatively strong thunderstorms, sometimes accompanied by high winds and tornadoes. While tornadoes do occur occasionally, most often they are of F0/EF0 intensity. The NCEI Storm Events Database does not record any tornado events that had a magnitude higher than F2 or EF1 in the Planning Area in the past. Table 4-86 Past High Wind and Tornado Events contains incident descriptions for significant historic events. In addition to the events listed #1..
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in the NCEI database, there was a USDA disaster designation declared for Stanislaus County in 2016 for “severe weather including excessive rainfall and high winds” (refer to Table 4-4).
Table 4-86 Past High Wind and Tornado Events in Stanislaus County, 1950-2021 Hazard Type Date Location Magnitude Property
Damages ($)
Crop
Damages ($) Deaths Injuries
Tornado 4/27/1953 Countywide F2 $2,500 $0 0 0
Tornado 4/1/1958 Countywide F1 $2,500 $0 0 0
Tornado 3/1/1978 Countywide Unknown $25,000 $0 0 0
Tornado 3/4/1978 Countywide Unknown $25,000 $0 0 0
Tornado 1/14/1980 Countywide F1 $250,000 $0 0 1
Thunderstorm
Wind
5/23/1980 Countywide Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Thunderstorm
Wind
3/19/1981 Countywide 52 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 1/16/1996 Countywide Unknown $10,000 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 2/5/1996 Patterson Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 3/12/1996 Turlock Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Tornado 4/1/1996 Newman F0 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 4/11/1996 Countywide 66 $150,000 $0 0 0
Tornado 12/12/1996 Oakdale F1 $10,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 4/2/1997 Countywide 50 $0 $0 0 1
High Wind 12/21/1997 Countywide 40 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 2/6/1998 Countywide 47 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 2/7/1998 Countywide 35 $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/5/1998 Ceres Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/5/1998 Modesto Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/5/1998 Salida Unknown $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 6/16/1998 Countywide Unknown $25,000 $0 0 2
High Wind 10/16/1998 Countywide 38 $100,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 11/7/1998 Countywide 40 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 4/3/1999 Countywide 35 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 4/22/1999 Countywide 34 $20,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 2/11/2000 Countywide 37 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 10/21/2000 Countywide 35 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 2/24/2001 Countywide 41 $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 3/4/2001 Countywide 36 $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 3/19/2005 Ceres Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Tornado 3/20/2005 Modesto F0 $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/9/2005 Modesto Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Tornado 4/14/2006 Modesto F1 $15,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 1/4/2008 Countywide 52 $4,408,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 1/20/2010 Countywide 44 $0 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 4/8/2013 Countywide 39 $500 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 10/27/2013 Countywide 43 $0 $0 2 2
Tornado 11/15/2015 Denair EF1 $1,000,000 $200,000 0 0
Thunderstorm
Wind
12/24/2015 Northeast
Modesto
87 $150,000 $0 0 0
Tornado 12/24/2015 Modesto
Airport
EF0 $20,000 $0 0 0
Tornado 4/27/2016 Waterford EF0 $500 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 1/11/2017 Turlock
(Chemurgic
tributary)
Unknown $0 $0 0 0
High Wind 1/18/2017 Countywide 53 $0 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 2/17/2017 Countywide 45 $100,000 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 2/17/2017 Countywide 45 $10,000 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 3/21/2017 Denair Unknown $0 $0 0 0
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Hazard Type Date Location Magnitude Property
Damages ($)
Crop
Damages ($) Deaths Injuries
Funnel Cloud 3/21/2017 Turlock Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/16/2019 (NRC)NAF
Crows Landing
Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Funnel Cloud 5/16/2019 Oakdale Unknown $0 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 2/9/2020 Countywide 46 $35,000 $0 0 0
Strong Wind 1/18/2021 Countywide 45 $5,000 $0 0 0
High Wind 1/26/2021 Countywide 50 $200,000 $0 0 0
Total $6,564,000 $200,000 2 6
Source: NCEI Storm Events Database, Notes: mph – Miles per Hour, ARPT – Airport, AFB – Airforce Base, (NRC)NAF CROWS LANDI – NASA Crows Landing Airport and Test Facility
Figure 4-46 and Figure 4-47 show the location of the past wind and tornado events in Stanislaus County based on data from NOAA’s NWS Storm Prediction Center.
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Figure 4-46 Tornado Events in Stanislaus County, 1950 -2019 #1..
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Highly Likely – Sixty-four high wind and tornado events have occurred in Stanislaus County over 72 years of recordkeeping, which equates to one high wind or tornado event every 1.13 years, on average, and an 89 percent chance of a high wind or tornado event occurring in any given year. Historical wind activity within the Planning Area indicates the County will likely continue to experience high wind during thunderstorm events with the potential of the formation of funnel clouds and low-intensity tornadoes during adverse weather conditions. The actual risk to the County is dependent on the nature and location of any given thunderstorm or tornado event.
Climate Change Considerations
There presently is not enough data or research to quantify the magnitude of change that climate change may have related to tornado frequency and intensity. NASA’s Earth Observatory has conducted studies that aim to understand the interaction between climate change and tornadoes. Based on these studies meteorologists are unsure why some thunderstorms generate tornadoes and others do not, beyond knowing that they require a certain type of wind shear. Tornadoes spawn from approximately one percent of thunderstorms, usually supercell thunderstorms that are in a wind shear environment that promotes rotation. Some studies show a potential for a decrease in wind shear in mid-latitude areas. Because of uncertainty with the influence of climate change on tornadoes, future updates to the mitigation plan should include the latest research on how the tornado hazard frequency and severity could change. An article published on National Geographic also agrees that there is still a lot to learn about how climate change might affect tornadoes. As one of nature’s most violent storms, climate change’s effect on tornadoes remains unclear (National Geography 2019). The level of significance of this hazard should be revisited over time.
As for wind, studies referenced in California’s Fourth Climate Assessment indicated that extreme fire weather, particularly in the form of hot and dry winds, can strongly influence shrub-land fire regimes. Strong winds have also been now associated with severe forest fires in California meaning climate change impacts on wind patterns may also affect forest health and wildfire susceptibility. Lastly, other ongoing research compiled in the recent climate assessment has resulted in different conclusions on the effect of climate change on wind regimes, particularly extreme wind events, such as the Santa Ana and Diablo winds that created some of the most devastating wildfires (California Natural Resources Agency 2018a). At this time, these changing factors are not well understood and are still being incorporated into state and regional research and risk analysis.
Vulnerability Assessment
General Property
General damages are both direct (what the wind event physically destroys) and indirect, which focuses on additional costs, damages and losses attributed to secondary hazards spawned by the event, or due to the damages caused by the wind event. Depending on the magnitude of the wind events as well as the size of the tornado and its path, a tornado is capable of damaging and eventually destroying almost anything.
Construction practices and building codes can help maximize the resistance of the structures to damage.
Secondary impacts of damage caused by wind events often result from damage to infrastructure. Downed power and communications transmission lines, coupled with disruptions to transportation infrastructure, create difficulties in reporting and responding to emergencies. These indirect impacts of a wind event put tremendous strain on a community. In the immediate aftermath, the focus is on emergency services.
Downed trees caused by a wind event are a common occurrence in the County. Falling trees can cause significant damage to property and put people at risk. Due to multiple years of drought in the County, many trees in the area have been impacted making them more susceptible to blow-down during wind events.
People
Community members are the most vulnerable to high wind and tornado events. The availability of sheltered locations such as basements, buildings constructed using tornado-resistant materials and methods, and public storm shelters, all reduce the exposure of the population. However, there are also segments of the population that are especially exposed to the indirect impacts of high winds and tornadoes, particularly the 2021-2026 Update Page 4-163
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loss of electrical power. According to the data obtained from emPOWER.com, a website maintained by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 4%, or 3,482 of the 88,934 of the Medicare beneficiaries in the County rely on medical equipment that is dependent on electricity in order to live independently. These populations include the elderly or disabled, especially those with medical needs and treatments dependent on electricity. Nursing homes, community-based residential facilities, special needs housing facilities, and isolated communities are also vulnerable. Life support needs can be threatened when electrical outages are prolonged since backup power generally operates only minimal functions for a short period of time.
Following the unprecedented 2018 wildfire season in California, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) announced it will be conducting PSPS when there are high winds and dry conditions and
generally a heightened fire risk forecasted. The outages could last several days, and PG&E has suggested customers be
prepared for outages that could last longer than 48 hours. A majority of Stanislaus County could be affected by the power outages. In addition to PG&E, both MID and TID provide power to Stanislaus County residents. According to MID and TID’s official websites, both of their service territories are either not designated as high fire threat area or have a very low wildfire risk. Despite the low risk, both irrigation districts have been implementing their own Wildfire Mitigation Plans, which outline a range of activities and actions to help both irrigation districts prevent and respond to the increasing risk of wildfires.
PSPS is mentioned on both irrigation districts websites. Both irrigation districts also have 24-hour hotlines for customers to call and report power outage events. TID also keeps an online platform where customers can check out current outage information, including the estimate on when the power will return.
Government Services
Most structures, including the County’s critical facilities, should be able to withstand and provide adequate protection from severe wind and tornadoes. Those facilities with backup generators should be fully equipped to handle severe wind and tornado events should the power go out. The impact of high wind on responders is similar to that of the general public. In the event of a tornado, there may be localized impacts to response personnel. Impacts on transportation corridors and communications lines affect first responders’ ability to respond effectively. To maintain public confidence, jurisdictions must continue to adhere to building codes and to facilitate new development that is built to the highest design standards to account for heavy winds and tornado winds.
Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
Both winds and tornadoes may impact exposed critical infrastructure such as power lines; depending on the impact and the function, this could cause a short-term economic disruption. The most common problems associated with tornadoes and high winds are loss of utilities. Downed power lines can cause power outages, leaving large parts of the County isolated, and without electricity, water, and communication.
Damage may also limit timely emergency response and the number of evacuation routes. Downed electrical lines following a storm can also increase the potential for lethal electrical shock. Damaging winds can also cause wildfires.
On June 26, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom and the State Legislature approved the Fiscal Year 2020-2021 State Budget, which included a $50 million onetime General Fund appropriation to support State and local government efforts to mitigate the impacts of the investment-owned utility use of PSPS. In 2020, the name of the PSPS program was changed to “Community Power Resiliency”. Building on the previous year’s investments, the resiliency program will support critical services vulnerable to power outage events, including schools, county election offices, and food storage reserves.
In 2019, the Stanislaus County OES received an initial award of $494,197 for PSPS resiliency initiatives.
The OES awarded Public Works Department $220,000 in PSPS resiliency funding to purchase four trailerHigh winds can cause trees or debris to damage electric lines and cause
wildfires. As a result, utility providers may
need to turn off power during severe
weather events – high wind & other
events that could increase wildfire risk.
This is called a Public Safety Power
Shutoff. In 2020, state-funded PSPS
grant program was changed to
“Community Power Resiliency”, which
will continue to support critical services
vulnerable to power outage events,
including schools, county election offices,
and food storage reserves.
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mounted generators that supply backup power to support essential water and sewer system services during power disruptions. The OES also awarded the Parks and Recreation Department $100,000 in resiliency funding to purchase two portable generators that provide backup power to support the reservoir that supplies over 200,000 customers with drinking water. Additionally, the OES awarded $130,425 in resiliency funding to the West Stanislaus Fire Agencies to purchase Community Resource Center (CRC) equipment that will support the communities of Grayson, Westley, Vernalis, Patterson, and Newman during a PSPS event.
The Stanislaus County OES received an additional PSPS resiliency award of $247,098 on October 2, 2020, that requires OES to allocate at least 50% percent of the award to support one or more of the resiliency areas: schools, election offices, food storage reserves, and/or COVID-19 testing sites. Of the total amount, $197,678, or 80%, is expected to be spent in the community to support resiliency efforts. The remaining $49,420, or 20%, is expected to be used within the County on other resiliency efforts.
Economy
Winds typically do not have long-term impacts on the economy, although wind does have an impact on the agriculture economy in the County. As shown in Table 4-87, wind events have been a leading cause of crop loss in the past 15 years (2007 – 2021), resulting in over $1.7 million in loss payments from the USDA and more than 3,500 acres lost to high wind events. Stanislaus County experiences an estimated $113,333 annualized loss due to crop damages from excessive wind events.
Table 4-87 Crops Loss Due to High Wind, RMA Crop Indemnity Reports, 2007-2021 Year
Net
Determined
Acres
Indemnity Amount
2007 168.83 $6,6302
2008 581.5 $540,125
2009 36.95 $125,915
2010 5.7 $2,641
2011 20.8 $78,962
2012 130 $7,644
2013 721.06 $398,954
2014 39.15 $19,646
2015 89.17 $74,225
2016 141.29 $76,638
2017 253.86 $244,427
2019 134.03 $60,623.55
2020 4.08 $18,287.6
Total 3,539 $1,721,079
Source: USDA RMA
Historic, Cultural and Natural Resources
High winds and tornadoes can cause massive damage to the natural environment, uprooting trees and other debris. This is part of a natural process, however, and the environment will return to its original state in time.
Future Development
As the County continues to increase in population, the number of people and housing developments exposed to the hazard increases. Adherence to current building codes, coupled with proper education on building techniques and the use of sturdy building materials, attached foundations, and other structural techniques may minimize the property vulnerabilities. Public shelters at parks and open spaces may help reduce the impacts of tornadoes and high wind events on the recreational populations exposed to storms.
Risk Summary
• Between 1950 and 2021 there were a combined 64 high wind (34) and tornado (30) events in the County.
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• Wind and tornado events have resulted in $6,564,500 in property damages. The most damaging event took place on January 4, 2008, with wind ranging from 44 to 60 mph causing $4,408,000 in property damages.
• Excessive wind has caused 3,539 acres to be lost and $1,721,079 crop loss payment made by the USDA to farmers in the County.
• PSPS poses a risk to individuals in the County who depend on electricity to live independently. Four percent of Medicare Beneficiaries in the County are electricity dependent. • Related Hazards – Extreme heat, Heavy Rain, Agriculture/Pest and Crop Disease, Wildfire Table 4-88 Hazard Risk Summary – High Wind/Tornado
Jurisdiction Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/
Severity
Overall
Significance
Hazard
Priority?
Stanislaus County Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Yes City of Ceres Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No
City of Hughson Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Modesto Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Newman Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Oakdale Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Patterson Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Riverbank Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Turlock Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No City of Waterford Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No County Office of Education Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No
4.3.15 Wildfire
Hazard/Problem Description
A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire spreading through vegetative fuels, such as grasslands, brush, or woodlands and posing danger and destruction to property and watersheds. Wildfires can occur in areas essentially void of development, or in areas where development intermingles with the natural area known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), a general term that applies to development adjacent to landscapes that support wildfire. Many wildfires occur in locations that abound in grasslands and brush. Heavier fuels with high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall, and high winds all work to increase wildfire risk.
While wildfires are often the direct result of lightning strikes, they can be caused by downed powerlines or mechanical equipment or are the result of human activities like landscape debris burns, carelessness, or arson. Wildfires often start in undeveloped areas and public land areas, such as state and federal lands, but can spread to urban areas where structures and other human development are more concentrated. The predominant dangers from wildfires are:
• Injury or loss of life to people in the affected area; and • The destruction of vegetation, property, wildlife.
Communities throughout California are increasingly concerned about wildfire safety as increased development in the foothills and mountain areas and subsequent fire control practices have affected the natural cycle of the ecosystem. Wildfire risk is predominantly associated with WUI areas. However, significant wildfires can also occur in heavily populated areas, although urbanized and developed areas that are not contiguous with vast areas of wildlands are typically considered safer from wildfires.
Stanislaus County is exposed to a variety of wildfire hazard conditions that vary based on fuels, topography, weather, and human behavior. Cal FIRE, as required by Government Code Section 51181, has undertaken a statewide program to map areas of potential wildfire severity, and to describe the potential for wildfires to occur in a given area; the resulting Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZs) adopted in November 2007 for the State Responsibility Areas (SRA) and adopted in September 2007 for the Local Responsibility Area (LRA) are shown in Figure 4-47 below. Cal FIRE determined Stanislaus County had no Very High FHSZs #1..
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(VHFHSZs) in the LRA. Therefore, Figure 4-47 does not have a specific map or zone of recommended VHFHSZ in the LRA.
Wildfires are an important natural component of Stanislaus County’s ecosystem. Wildlands need to burn periodically to naturally maintain viable environments. Fuel maintenance (controlled burns, mowing, cattle grazing, and other means) is a necessary replacement to uncontrolled wildland fires because of threats to human habitation. Development patterns in rural lands can reduce the ability to manage fuel and defend “values at risk”.
Generally, there are three major factors that sustain wildfires and predict a given area’s potential to burn.
These factors are fuel, topography, and weather.
• Fuel – Fuel is the material that feeds a fire and is a key factor in wildfire behavior. Fuel is generally classified by type and by volume. Fuel sources are diverse and include everything from dead tree leaves, twigs, and branches to dead standing trees, live trees, brush, and cured grasses. Also, to be considered as a fuel source are manmade structures, such as homes and other associated combustibles. The type of prevalent fuel directly influences the behavior of wildfire. Fuel is the only factor that can be modified by humans. The main fuel types in Stanislaus County are crops and grasses, while there are also brush and pine fuels present in some areas in the western portion of the County. • Topography – An area’s terrain and slopes affect its susceptibility to wildfire spread. Both fire intensity and rate of spread increase as slope increases due to the tendency of heat from a fire to rise via convection. The arrangement and types of vegetation throughout a hillside can also contribute to increased fire activity on slopes.
• Weather – Weather components such as temperature, relative humidity, wind, and lightning affect the potential for wildfire. High temperatures and low relative humidity dry out fuels that feed wildfires, creating a situation where fuel will more readily ignite and burn more intensely. Thus, during periods of drought, the threat of wildfire increases. Wind is the most influential weather factor of the three and its influence can increase rates of spread regardless of temperature and relative humidity. #1..
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Figure 4-47 Stanislaus County Federal, State, and Local Responsibility Severity Zones Geographic Area
Significant – Both urban and wildland fires conditions exist in Stanislaus County, which increases the chances for damage to property, loss of life and/or injury. In the WUI, where development has expanded into rural, higher-risk areas, wildfires can result in major losses of property and structures. In most of Stanislaus County, Cal FIRE ranks fuel loading as low. Fuels are mainly crops and grasses. In the far western and eastern portions of the County in areas identified by Cal FIRE as SRAs, there is undeveloped and rugged terrain that contains highly flammable grass, brush, and some pine fuels, which are ranked as moderate fuel hazards, primarily in the area west of Interstate 5 (I-5). The far western portion of the County includes the Diablo Range, located west of I-5. The far eastern portion of the County includes the Sierra Nevada foothills. These two areas are managed by Santa Clara Unit (SCU) and Tuolumne Calaveras Unit (TCU), respectively and are the two areas in the County that are rated as having the highest possible critical #1..
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fire weather frequency on an annual basis. Risk information for the SRAs are summarized in Cal FIRE’s Strategic Fire Plan for the SCU and TCU.
Generally, fire season in Stanislaus County extends from early spring to late fall (May to October) of each year, but wildfires can now occur at any time of the year during the warmer and dryer months. Onset can happen suddenly due to lightning or human-caused factors and wildfires can last from a few hours to a few months, but the likely hood of a large and damaging fire lasting for months in Stanislaus County is not likely.
Secondary effects from wildfire include increased erosion, destabilized slopes, degraded air and water quality, and economic impacts from burned landscapes. Urban fires primarily involve the uncontrolled burning of residential, commercial and/or industrial structures generally caused by human activities.
Cal FIRE’s Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) assesses the amount and extent of California’s forests and rangelands, analyzes their conditions, and identifies alternative management and policy guidelines. Cal FIRE identifies areas that are at high risk of damage from wildfire based primarily on three factors:
• Ranking Fuel Hazards – ranking vegetation types by their potential fire behavior during a wildfire. • Assessing the Probability of Fire – annual likelihood that a large damaging wildfire would occur in a particular vegetation type.
• Defining Areas of Suitable Housing Density that would Create WUI Fire Protection Strategy Situations – areas of intermingled wildland fuels and urban environments that are in the vicinity of fire threats.
Population density and the presence of structures are not currently used to determine the FHSZ for a particular region, although they do have a significant impact on fire behavior. Based on the above criteria, Cal FIRE maps FHSZs for each county as “Very High,” “High,” or “Moderate”. As shown below in Figure 4-49, the areas ranked Very High and High are primarily located west of I-5 County. These areas exhibit the combination of vegetative fuel and topography that contribute to an increased fire hazard potential. The fact that an area is in a “Moderate” hazard designation does not mean it cannot experience a damaging fire. It only means that the probability is reduced, generally because the number of days a year that the area has “fire weather” is less.
The FHSZ spatial dataset was explicitly developed for adopting new ignition-resistant building code standards mandated by the California Building Standards Commission in 2007 (California Code of Regulations [CCR], Title 24, Part 2, known as the California Building Code [CBC] Chapter 7A). The dataset is used to implement WUI building standards for new construction, defensible space requirements, and property development standards such as road width, water supply, and signage. For example, beginning on July 1, 2021 Assembly Bill 38 required all homes sales in “High” or “Very High” FHSZs to be compliant following a Defensible Space Inspection. The FHSZ spatial datasets were also developed to describe the nature and probability of fire exposure to structures, including those lands that are highly urbanized, but in close proximity to open wildlands. It is broken into Federal Responsibility Areas (FRA), SRA, and LRA shown below.
Cal FIRE has also designated the following Stanislaus County communities as being at increased risk from wildfires (https://osfm.fire.ca.gov/divisions/wildfire-planning-engineering/fire-plan/communities-at-risk/):
• Knights Ferry
• La Grange
• Oakdale
• Riverbank
Some unincorporated communities located within the County are not confronted with a high wildfire risk, due primarily to the dominant type of vegetation in those areas. The low-growing native grasses and shrubs found in these communities present a minimal vegetative fuel source and a corresponding low wildfire risk.
In addition, the topography of those areas is mainly level and well developed in both residential and agricultural land uses.
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Extent (Magnitude/Severity)
Negligible – Vegetation (or fuel) plays a major role in fire behavior and shaping fire hazard potential.
Vegetation distribution throughout the County varies by location and topography, with dramatic differences observed between the western, central, and eastern portions of the County. For instance, fire behavior in brush fuel types, such as chapparal produces higher flame lengths than that in grassland, although spread rates are typically slower. Fire behavior in forests is variable, depending on surface fuel conditions and the presence of ladder fuels.
Fuel loading in developed areas susceptible to wildfire becomes even more complex. The introduction of some ornamental plantings as landscaping and groundcover can dramatically increase the fire loading of a neighborhood. Gazebos, fencing, patios, decks and even the structures themselves add even more fuel.
Once structures become involved in fire, the problem compounds as embers cast out thousands of feet onto combustible roofs well removed from the wildland area.
Steep terrain also plays a key role in the rate at which wildfires spread, as fires will normally burn much faster uphill. Generally, when the gradient of a slope doubles, the rate of spread of a fire will also double.
Steep topography also channels air flow, thereby creating erratic wind patterns. Fire suppression in steep areas is also complicated by limited accessibility, and the effectiveness of firefighters and equipment are hampered by lack of access roads. Another factor that can increase the severity of wildfires in the County is areas with high percentages of dead trees, as discussed in Subsection 4.3.1 Agricultural Pests and Disease and Subsection 4.3.5 Drought.
The Fire Rating System defined in Table 4-89 describes the characteristics and potential intensity of fires, including the effect on the ability to manage and suppress fires. Fire conditions up through Class 5 are possible in Stanislaus County, primarily in the unincorporated areas in the far east and west of the County, whereas fire threat is generally moderate to low or none within urban areas.
Table 4-89 Fire Danger Rating System
Rating Basic Description Detailed Description
CLASS 1: Low Danger (L)
COLOR CODE: Green
fires not easily
started
Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands. Fires in open or cured grassland may burn freely a few hours after rain, but wood fires spread slowly by creeping or
smoldering and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting.
CLASS 2: Moderate Danger
(M) COLOR CODE: Blue
fires start easily and
spread at a
moderate rate
Fires can start from most accidental causes. Fires in open cured grassland will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Woods fires spread slowly to moderately fast.
The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel – especially draped fuel -- may burn hot. Short-distance spotting may occur but is not
persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and
control is relatively easy.
CLASS 3: High Danger (H)
COLOR CODE: Yellow
fires start easily and
spread at a rapid
rate
All fine dead fuels ignite readily, and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely
to escape. Fires spread rapidly, and short-distance
spotting is common. High-intensity burning may develop
on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuel. Fires may
become serious and their control difficult, unless they are hit hard and fast while small.
CLASS 4: Very High Danger
(VH) COLOR CODE:
Orange
fires start very easily
and spread at a very
fast rate
Fires start easily from all causes and immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity.
Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light fuels may quickly develop high-intensity characteristics - such as long-distance spotting - and fire whirlwinds, when they burn into heavier fuels. Direct attack at the head of such fires is rarely possible after they have been burning more than a few minutes.
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Rating Basic Description Detailed Description
CLASS 5: Extreme (E)
COLOR CODE: Red
fire situation is
explosive and can
result in extensive
property damage
Fires under extreme conditions start quickly, spread
furiously and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high-intensity burning will
usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the Very High Danger Class (4). Direct attack is rarely
possible and may be dangerous, except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headway in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme
burning condition lasts. Under these conditions, the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks, until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens.
Source: http://www.wfas.net
Major wildland fires can completely destroy ground cover. If heavy rains follow a major fire, flash floods, heavy erosion, land subsidence and mudflows can occur. After a wildland fire passes through an area, the land is laid bare of its protective vegetation cover and is susceptible to excessive runoff and erosion from winter storms. The intense heat from the fire can also cause a chemical reaction in the soil that makes it less porous, and the fire can destroy the root systems of shrubs and grasses that aid in stabilizing slope material. These cascading effects can have ruinous impacts on people, structures, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Fire threat provides a measure of fuel conditions and fire potential in the ecosystem, representing the relative likelihood of “damaging” or difficult to control wildfire occurring for a given area. Fire Threat is not a risk assessment by itself but can be used to assess the potential for impacts on various assets and values susceptible to fire. Impacts are more likely to occur and/or be of increased severity for the higher threat classes. Fire threat is a combination of two factors: 1) fire probability, or the likelihood of a given area burning, and 2) potential fire behavior (hazard). These two factors are combined to create five threat classes ranging from low to extreme. Figure 4-48 below shows the wildfire threat areas throughout Stanislaus County.
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Figure 4-48 Stanislaus County Wildfire Threat Areas
Previous Occurrences
There has been one state and federal disaster declaration in Stanislaus County related to wildfire that occurred in 2020. There have been 119 wildfires recorded in the County from 1950-2020 totaling 620,582 acres burned in the region (some of the wildfires spread across the County border). This is an average of over 31,029 acres burned every year (this estimate is high based on the recent SCU Lightning Complex Fire in 2020). In August 2020, a portion of the SCU Lightning Complex Fire, which is the 4th largest fire by acres burned (396,624 acres) in state history, extended into Stanislaus County, burning approximately 175,812 acres in the Planning Area. As stated above, most fires are relatively small compared to the state as a whole, the highest number of acres burned in the County not including the SCU Lightning Complex Fire was 47,748 during the 2007 Lick fire. The County’s fire history from 1911-2020 is illustrated in Figure 4-49.
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Figure 4-49 Stanislaus County Fire History, 1911-2020
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Occasional – Fire starts are highly likely during each fire season; though, they rarely result in large-scale wildfires in Stanislaus County. Information obtained from the Cal FIRE Redbook lists multiple fires, the largest in the most recent past consumed approximately 175,812 acres. Based on climate and weather in Stanislaus County and the fuels, topography, and a past fire history which indicates an average of 1.7 wildfires per year, it is likely that fires will continue to occur in the future. Figure 4-50 below shows the annual probability for wildfire in Stanislaus County from 2026-2040, based on Cal FIRE GIS mapping.
Figure 4-50 Stanislaus County Annual Probability of Fire, 2026-2050 #1..
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Climate Change Considerations
According to the 2018 California SHMP, climate change has the potential to impact the frequency, size, and severity of the wildfire hazard statewide. Increasing temperatures may intensify wildfire threat and susceptibility to more frequent wildfires in the County.
Exactly how climate change will affect total precipitation is not clear, but models suggest that there is a tendency for wetter conditions in the northern part of the State and drier conditions in the south (CNRA 2018a). Forests are also sensitive to variable precipitation events, as the 2012-2017 drought contributed to widespread tree mortality as warmer temperatures stressed trees and made them more susceptible to pests and pathogens (CNRA 2018). Studies noted in California’s Fourth Assessment report note climate change impacts on wind patterns may strongly affect forests, potentially serving as a trigger mechanism for conversion of forest to other types of vegetation (CNRA 2018).
Current scientific models expect all of California will be affected by increased numbers of forest fires with added intensity due to longer warmer seasons, reduced distribution of biodiversity, lack of moisture, changes in ecosystems, drought impacts (e.g. pest diseases and continued spread of invasive species), and other impacts in coming years. The extending of the wildfire season into winter months, coinciding with seasonal high wind patterns, has contributed to severe fires in recent years. Southern California experienced 29 wildfires in December of 2017 alone, and the deadliest and most destructive fire in California history, the Camp Fire, happened in November of 2018 and resulted in 153,336 acres burned, 18,804 structures damaged, and 85 deaths.
Projected wildfire occurrence (annual area burned) estimates based on different potential climate futures and GHG emission scenarios is summarized from Westerling (2018) and presented in Figure 4-51. This figure shows the modeled projections of annual area burned for a mid-century projection (2035 to 2064) under a medium and high GHG emissions scenario with a central population growth scenario. Projected future climate from these four models can be described as producing:
• HadGEM2-ES – A warm/dry future climate simulation
• CNRM-CM5 – A cooler/wetter future climate simulation
• CanESM2 – An average future climate simulation
• MIROC5 – The model simulation that is most unlike the first three for the best coverage of different possibilities.
Each of the climate models responds to variations in GHG emission levels, where greater GHG emissions result in more extreme weather phenomenon. Under a “medium” GHG emission scenario, projections across all future climate scenarios predict that annual area burned in Stanislaus County could range from 1,538 to 2,599 acres for the mid-century projections between the years 2035 and 2064. Under a “high” GHG emission scenario, projections across all future climate scenarios predict that annual area burned in Stanislaus County could range from 1,426 to 2,070 acres for the mid-century projections between the years 2035 to 2064 (see Figure 4-52).
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Figure 4-51 Modeled Projections of Annual Area Burned for Stanislaus County: 2020 to 2099 under Medium Emissions (RCP 4.5) Scenario and High-Emissions Scenario (RCP
8.5)
Source: Cal-Adapt 2021
The modeled historical (1961 to 1990) and mid-century projections (2035 to 2064) for estimated decadal fire probability for a medium GHG emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) with a central population growth scenario shows a range between 0.2 to 0.2 for estimated probability. In comparison, the modeled historical (1961 to 1990) and mid-century projections (2035 to 2064) for estimated decadal fire probability for a high GHG emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) with a central population growth scenario was slightly higher with a range #1..
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between 0.2 to 0.3 for estimated probability. These two GHG emissions scenarios are shown in Figure 4-52.
Figure 4-52 Estimated Decadal Fire Probability for Stanislaus County from 1960 to 2099 under Medium Emissions (RCP 4.5) Scenario and High-Emissions Scenario (RCP 8.5) Source: Cal-Adapt 2021
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Vulnerability Assessment
Stanislaus County vulnerability to wildfires varies, with some areas of the Planning Area along the far western and eastern portions being at greater risk than the central and more urbanized portion of the County. Generally, this hazard is a medium concern given the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in California. High fuel loads in some areas of the Planning Area along with geographical and topographical features near the Diablo Range create the potential for both natural and human-caused fires that can result in loss of life and property. These factors, combined with natural weather conditions common to the area, including periods of drought, low relative humidity, and periodic winds, can result in frequent and sometimes catastrophic fires. Even the relatively flat central parts of the County are not immune to fire; hot and sometimes windy weather combined with dry vegetation and a denser population can result in an increase in the number of ignitions.
Figure 4-53 through Figure 4-56 below are the result of a nationwide risk study referred to as Wildfire Risk to Communities from the United States Forest Service that was designed to help communities understand, explore and reduce wildfire risk (USFS 2021). These figures provide a perspective of wildfire risk and vulnerability compared to other California Counties. Populated areas in Stanislaus County have, on average, greater risk to homes than 7% of counties in California. Populated areas in Stanislaus County have, on average, greater wildfire likelihood than 18% of counties in California.
Figure 4-53 Stanislaus County Wildfire Likelihood
Source: USFS 2021
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Figure 4-54 Stanislaus County Wildfire Likelihood Compared to California Counties Source: USFS 2021
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Figure 4-55 Stanislaus County Wildfire Risk to Homes
Source: USFS 2021
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Figure 4-56 Stanislaus County Wildfire Risk to Homes Compared to California Counties Source: USFS 2021
General Property
The potential impacts of wildfire on property include crop loss, injury and death of livestock and pets, and damage to infrastructure, homes and other buildings located throughout the wildfire risk area.
A wildfire threat assessment was performed for Stanislaus County using the following GIS methodology.
Assessor’s parcels are converted to centroid points. This data was then overlaid on the Fire Threat Layer.
For the purposes of this analysis, the wildfire hazard zone that intersected the centroid points was assigned as the hazard zone for the entire parcel. It was assumed that every parcel with an improved value greater than zero was developed in some way, thus only improved parcels and their values were analyzed.
An analysis of the value of those parcels – the improvement value plus estimated value of building contents – quantifies the potential losses from wildfires by severity zone. The results show that $3.73 billion worth of property and approximately 8,596 structures are exposed to fire risk countywide. The majority of these buildings are in high to moderate hazard areas. The unincorporated areas and the City of Newman make up the majority of this risk. Residential and agricultural properties constitute the majority of the number of parcels and the projected losses. The total values shown in these tables include both structure value and contents and can be used as an estimate of potential losses since wildfires typically result in a total loss. #1..
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Table 4-90 Wildfire Hazard Exposure –Property Summary by Jurisdiction and Fire Threat Zone Jurisdiction Building
Count
Extreme
Building
Count
Very High
Building
Count
High
Building
Count
Moderate
Total
Building
Count
Improved Value Estimated
Content Value
Total Value Population
Ceres 0 1 276 303 580 $158,646,509 $82,890,947 $241,537,456 18 Hughson 0 0 57 97 154 $26,104,098 $13,904,591 $40,008,689 - Modesto 0 0 59 171 230 $91,308,401 $67,612,796 $158,921,197 656 Newman 0 2 198 976 1,176 $328,297,798 $178,953,729 $507,251,527 95 Oakdale 0 1 257 364 622 $156,504,212 $99,657,587 $256,161,799 70 Patterson 0 0 5 114 120 $46,298,879 $33,552,414 $79,851,293 407 Riverbank 0 0 0 46 46 $12,166,220 $8,061,240 $20,286,882 134 Turlock 0 0 1 179 180 $73,109,917 $61,486,333 $135,201,707 390 Waterford 0 0 0 8 8 $2,064,374 $1,252,199 $3,316,573 25 Unincorporated 108 462 1,605 3,659 5,834 $1,373,680,176 $1,148,731,537 $2,522,411,713 2,095 Total 108 467 2,458 5,917 8,950 $2,268,180,584 $1,696,103,373 $3,964,948,836 3,890 Source: Cal FIRE, Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood GIS analysis #1..
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Figure 4-57 shows the composition of improved parcels that are exposed to fire threats within the unincorporated County, categorized by fire threat zone.
Figure 4-57 Unincorporated County Parcels in Fire Threat Classes Source: Cal FIRE, Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood GIS analysis People
Wildland fires result in a high risk for personal injury, loss of life to inhabitants of the fire area and firefighters, and losses of structures and personal property. Wildfires in or near the WUI frequently require emergency evacuation and sheltering, often for many days. As is shown in Table 4-91 below, approximately 3,891 people in Stanislaus County reside in FHSZs. This figure was derived by taking the total number of residential structures identified in the FHSZs and multiplying them by the average household size in the County based on 2019 U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Table 4-91 Population at Risk to Fire Threat
Jurisdiction Population
Ceres 18
Hughson -
Modesto 656
Newman 95
Oakdale 70
Patterson 407
Riverbank 134
Turlock 390
Waterford 25
Unincorporated 2,095
Total 3,891
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, U.S. Census Bureau, Wood GIS Analysis Other indirect impacts from wildfires on people are related to dense smoke from fires within the region.
Wildfires in the past three years have decreased the air quality throughout Stanislaus County, and many of the wildfires located over 150 miles from the County have resulted in poor air quality in the Central Valley (e.g. Dixie Fire in 2021 resulted in poor air quality across portions of Northern California). Dense smoke poses a risk to both people with compromised health as well as those considered healthy. A study from the 0%
18%
49%
33% Improved Parcel Count Extreme
Improved Parcel Count Very High
Improved Parcel Count High
Improved Parcel Count Moderate
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University of California San Diego found that wildfire smoke is more harmful to respiratory health in humans than pollution from cars (NPR 2021). Studies have also shown an increase in ambulance calls, hospital visits and an increase of people experiencing respiratory or cardiac emergencies (NPR 2020).
Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
Critical facilities are those community components that are most needed to withstand the impacts of disaster, as previously described in the Assets section. Wildfire impacts to critical facilities can include structural damage or destruction, risk to persons located within facilities, disruption of transportation, shipping, and evacuation operations, and interruption of facility operations and critical functions.
Critical facilities and infrastructure also create an increased risk for the occurrence of wildfires. Overhead electric transmission lines have been known to spark wildfires. According to data from the California Public Utilities Commission, the State’s three largest utility companies collectively reported 2,009 ignitions statewide between 2014-2017. Most of these instances were small, less than one acre in size, however these fires can grow rapidly under the right fire conditions. One such example is California’s deadliest wildfire, the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California. Identifying critical facilities and infrastructure and mitigating their potential risks is important both for maintaining the County’s resilience and for reducing the potential impacts of wildfire. The locations of critical facilities identified by HIFLD throughout the County are summarized by their exposure to the various wildfire threat levels in Table 4-92 through Table 4-96 below.
Table 4-92 Critical Facilities Within the Low Wildfire Threat by Jurisdiction and FEMA Lifeline Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Ceres 1 - - - 1 1 3 6
Hughson - - - - - - - -
Modesto 2 - - - 2 1 1 6
Newman - - - 1 - - - 1
Oakdale - - - - 1 1 - 2
Patterson - - - - - 1 - 1
Riverbank - - - - - - 1 1
Turlock - - - - - - 1 1
Waterford - - - - - - - -
Unincorporated 19 17 1 3 - 8 74 122
Other Counties - - - - - - - -
Total 22 17 1 4 4 12 80 140
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis Table 4-93 Critical Facilities Within the Moderate Wildfire Threat by Jurisdiction and FEMA Lifeline
Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Ceres - - - - - - - -
Hughton - - - - - - - -
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Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Modesto 1 - - - 1 - - 2
Newman - - - - 1 1 - 2
Oakdale - - - - - - - -
Patterson 1 - - - - - - 1
Riverbank - - - - - - - -
Turlock - - - - 1 - - 1
Waterford - - - - - - - -
Unincorporated 13 2 - - - 3 19 37
Other Counties - - - - - - - -
Total 15 2 - - 3 4 19 43
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis Table 4-94 Critical Facilities Within the High Wildfire Threat by Jurisdiction and FEMA Lifeline Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Ceres - - - - - - - -
Hughson - - - - - - - -
Modesto - - - - - - - -
Newman - - - - - - - -
Oakdale - - - - - - - -
Patterson - - - - - - - -
Riverbank - - - - - - - -
Turlock - - - - - - - -
Waterford - - - - - - - -
Unincorporated 17 5 1 - - 1 26 50
Other Counties - - - - - - - -
Total 17 5 1 - - 1 26 50
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis Table 4-95 Stanislaus County Critical Facilities Within the Very High Wildfire Threat by Jurisdiction and FEMA Lifeline
Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Ceres - - - - - - - -
Hughton - - - - - - - -
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Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Modesto - - - - - - - -
Newman - - - - - - - -
Oakdale - - - - - - - -
Patterson - 1 - - - - - 1
Riverbank - - - - - - - -
Turlock - - - - - - - -
Waterford - - - - - - - -
Unincorporated 4 4 1 1 - - 16 26
Other Counties - - - - - - - -
Total 4 5 1 1 - - 16 27
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis Table 4-96 Stanislaus County Critical Facilities Within the Extreme Wildfire Threat by Jurisdiction and FEMA Lifeline
Jurisdiction
CommunicationsEnergyFood, Water, ShelterHazardous MaterialHealth and MedicalSafety and SecurityTransportationTotal Ceres - - - - - - - -
Hughson - - - - - - - -
Modesto - - - - - - - -
Newman - - - - - - - -
Oakdale - - - - - - - -
Patterson - - - - - - - -
Riverbank - - - - - - - -
Turlock - - - - - - - -
Waterford - - - - - - - -
Unincorporated 1 - 1 - - 1 - 3
Other Counties - - - - - - - -
Total 1 - 1 - - 1 - 3
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis According to the analysis conducted, there are 123 critical facilities exposed to at least a moderate wildfire threat area. The highest rates of exposure to wildfire threat areas are facilities in the Communication and Transportation Lifeline categories, both of which are crucial for response and evacuations in the event of a significant fire.
Economy
The economic impacts of wildfire include loss of property, direct agricultural sector job loss, secondary economic losses to businesses in or near wildland resources like parks and national forests, and loss of public access to recreational resources. Fire suppression may also require increased cost to local and state government for water acquisition and delivery, especially during periods of drought when water resources are scarce. Effects on agriculture can be significant, which makes up a large portion of Stanislaus County’s #1..
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economy. In addition to the obvious impacts on crops and animals, wildland fire can have damaging effects on soil and water that will impact agriculture for an extended period of time.
Historic, Cultural, and Natural Resources
The County has 26 sites according to California Office of Historic Preservation (refer to Subsection 4.2.1).
Since these structures are sensitive in nature and may not have been built according to the latest building codes due to their age, it is expected that they might be at risk of wildfires (e.g., because of their potential inability to withstand significant heat). Most of these structures are located in the Cities of Modesto and Turlock, and the community of LaGrange, which are at lower risk to wildfire than unincorporated areas of the County. However, parks and open spaces, particularly in the foothills in the eastern edge of the County, could also be at risk of a wildfire.
Future Development
A fire threat GIS analysis within SOI boundaries is summarized in the table below. The methodology resembles what was used for the General Property subsection above. These parcels are also included in Table 4-90, and they fall under “Unincorporated” in terms of their jurisdiction. Parcels shown below in Table 4-97 are those that fall within each jurisdiction’s SOI and are exposed to potential flood hazard events.
Table 4-97 Sphere of Influence Fire Threat Analysis
Jurisdiction Building
Count
High
Building
Count
Moderate
Total
Building
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Population
Ceres 1 15 16 $6,643,798 $7,544,435 $14,188,233 26
Modesto 1 14 15 $9,131,525 $11,421,828 $20,553,353 26
Newman - 13 13 $1,645,529 $1,219,848 $2,865,377 20
Oakdale - 28 28 $4,986,202 $4,381,180 $9,367,382 12
Patterson - 11 11 $1,597,840 $1,521,806 $3,119,646 4
Riverbank - 6 6 $931,010 $859,100 $1,790,110 7
Turlock 1 6 7 $1,018,903 $591,124 $1,610,027 17
Waterford - 1 1 $316,696 $316,696 $633,392 -
Total 3 94 97 $26,271,503 $27,856,015 $54,127,518 112
Source: Stanislaus County, HIFLD, Cal FIRE, FRAP, Wood GIS Analysis Any population increases in the Planning Area will continue to make wildfire vulnerability a growing issue, especially as future development expands into higher fire risk areas. These risks can however be managed with strong land use regulations and building code requirements, and with policies established in the Safety Element of the 2030 General Plan. For example, policies requiring fire-resistant vegetation, clustered development, and vegetation clear zones in areas with high and extreme fire hazard.
Risk Summary
• The overall significance of wildfire in Stanislaus County is Medium. These events are recurring in nature and can cause significant damage, loss of life, and disruption to critical infrastructure. • The County experiences an average of one wildfire every 1.7 years and an average of 30,000 acres burned per year. As impacts of climate change such as increased temperatures and prolonged drought conditions continue in coming years, this frequency and intensity may increase. • Powerlines and vehicle or equipment use present a significant source of ignitions. • Effects on people – Past wildfires in the County have not resulted in a large number of fatalities; however, significant evacuations and sheltering have been required in past events. • Effects on property – Wildfires can destroy homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. $3.73 billion worth of property in the County is located in a Fire Threat Zone. • Effects on critical facilities and infrastructure – Wildfires can disrupt access to, or even destroy critical facilities and infrastructure; 43 critical facilities are in the Moderate Fire Threat Zone, 50 critical facilities are in the High Fire Threat Zone, 27 critical facilities are in the Very High Fire Threat Zone, and three critical facilities are in the Extreme Fire Threat Zone. • Effects on economy – Wildfires impacts can include loss of property, direct agricultural sector job loss, secondary economic losses to businesses, and loss of public access to recreational resources. #1..
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• Effects on Historic, Cultural, and Natural Resources – Wildfire can significantly impact water and air quality, even at great distances from the area burning. Damage to agriculture, natural resource areas, and habitats are very likely during a wildfire.
• Related Hazards – Drought, Agricultural Pest Infestation and Disease, Landslide and Debris Flow.
Table 4-98 Hazard Summary – Wildfire
Jurisdiction Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/
Severity
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Stanislaus County Significant Occasional Negligible Medium Yes City of Ceres Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
City of Hughson Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
City of Modesto Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
City of Newman Limited Occasional Negligible Medium No
City of Oakdale Significant Likely Negligible Medium Yes City of Patterson Significant Likely Negligible Medium No City of Riverbank Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
City of Turlock Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
City of Waterford Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
County Office of Education Limited Occasional Negligible Low No #1..
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5 MITIGATION STRATEGY
Requirement §201.6(c)(3):
[The plan shall include the following:] A mitigation strategy that provides the jurisdiction’s blueprint for reducing the potential losses identified in the risk assessment, based on existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these existing tools.
This section describes the mitigation strategy process and mitigation action plan for the Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan. It describes how the County and participating jurisdictions met the requirements for the following from the 10-step planning process:
• Planning Step 6: Set Goals
• Planning Step 7: Review Possible Activities
• Planning Step 8: Draft an Action Plan
The mitigation strategy reflects the results of the collaborative work of the HMPC. Subsection 5.3 Mitigation Action Plan is based on the updated planning process, risk assessment, capability assessment, consequence analysis, goal setting, and the identification of mitigation actions. Taking all of these into consideration, the HMPC developed the following overall mitigation strategy, which build upon the 2017 LHMP strategy:
• Communicate the hazard information collected and analyzed through this planning process as well as HMPC success stories so that the community better understands what can happen where and what they themselves can do to be better prepared.
• Implement the action plan recommendations of this plan to reduce the County’s vulnerability to hazards.
• Use existing rules, regulations, policies, and procedures already in existence. Given the flood hazard in the planning area, an emphasis should be placed on continued compliance with the NFIP. • Lessen the impact of disasters and the speed of the response and recovery process. • Build awareness to help the community become more sustainable and reliant to disasters. • Monitor multi-objective management opportunities so that funding opportunities may be shared and packaged, and broader constituent support may be garnered.
5.1 Mitigation Goals and Objectives
§201.6(c)(3)(i)
[The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a] description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long‐ term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards.
Up to this point in the planning process, the HMPC has organized resources, assessed hazards and risks, and documented mitigation capabilities. The resulting goals, objectives, and mitigation actions were developed based on these tasks. The HMPC held a series of meetings and exercises designed to achieve a collaborative, updated mitigation strategy as described further throughout this section.
Over a series of meetings during the 2021 – 2022 update process, the HMPC reviewed the results of the hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and capability assessment update. This analysis of the risk assessment identified areas where improvements could be made and provided the framework for the HMPC to update planning goals and objectives and the ultimate mitigation strategy for the Stanislaus County planning area.
Mitigation goals are defined as general guidelines that explain what the County wants to achieve in terms of hazard and loss prevention. Goals are typically long-range statements representing community-wide visions. The HMPC reviewed the goals from the 2017 LHMP which focused on minimizing future loss of #1..
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life, reducing property damage, avoiding long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards, and increased planning and mitigation efforts for dam and flood along with increased preparedness in participating in ShakeOut for earthquakes. The goals were developed to be compatible with the goals of the community as expressed in the Safety Element of the General Plan, and the 2021 EOP. The County’s Mitigation Strategy is guided by the vision of a safe and resilient County. Our mission is to integrate existing laws and programs into a mitigation strategy that will serve the citizens by reducing and preventing injury and damage from natural hazards.
Stanislaus County routinely performs activities such as issuing building permits, approving development plans, and repairing roads. The County is conscious that these activities should reflect our vision and goals by using the most current building code, restricting development in hazard-prone areas, or making infrastructure decisions based on our risk assessment findings. As a result, goals were defined for the purpose of this mitigation plan as broad-based public policy statements that:
• Represent basic desires of the community;
• Encompass all aspects of community, public and private; • Are nonspecific, in that they refer to the quality (not the quantity) of the outcome; • Are future-oriented, in that they are achievable in the future; and • Are time-independent, in that they are not scheduled events.
Goals are stated without regard to implementation. Implementation cost, schedule, and means are not considered. Goals are defined before considering how to accomplish them so that they are not dependent on the means of achievement. Goal statements form the basis for objectives and actions that will be used as means to achieve the goals. Objectives define strategies to attain the goals and are more specific and measurable.
During the 2021 – 2022 plan update process, HMPC members reviewed the existing goals and objectives from the 2017 LHMP Hazard Mitigation Plan. Through a brainstorming process at the third HMPC meeting, the HMPC consolidated the mitigation goals designed in the 2017 LHMP, which were previously categorized by specific hazards, and then came to a consensus on five main goals that apply to all hazards.
The mitigation objectives were also categorized by specific hazards in the 2017 LHMP. The HMPC decided to keep that format but update them to be more comprehensive, inclusive, and specific. Goals and objectives are listed below, but are not prioritized:
5.1.1 Mitigation Goals:
• Goal 1: Minimize the loss of life and reduce property damage as a result of natural, human-health, and human-caused hazards to support the health and safety of the whole community. • Goal 2: Reduce economic impacts and promote a sustainable economy. • Goal 3: Improve community resilience to disasters through increased outreach and awareness and better resources.
• Goal 4: Protect climate and socially vulnerable communities in the County, including individuals with access and functional needs and those that may suffer from economic, health, and environmental burdens.
• Goal 5: Build resilient infrastructure and communities that withstand climate-related impacts.
5.1.2 Mitigation Objectives by Hazard
The County’s corresponding objectives are listed below and organized by hazard. The objectives were revised using the risk assessment and consequence analysis. The mitigation strategy objectives have been organized by hazard in the past three HMPs.
Agricultural Pests and Disease
• Objective ADP01: The County shall continue to administer, enforce and enhance federal, state and local-level pest management and detection programs to prevent, detect, and respond to agricultural pests and disease when they occur, and prevent the spread of pests and disease that have become established.
• Objective ADP02: Enable the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters by improving hazard information.
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• Objective ADP03: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Aquatic Invasive Species (AIS)
• Objective AIS01: The County shall continue to administer and enforce federal, state and local-level invasive species programs to prevent, detect, and respond to species introductions when they occur and prevent the spread of species that have become established. • Objective AIS02: Raise the public’s awareness of AIS, which helps prevent the unintentional introduction of AIS.
• Objective AIS03: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Cyber Attack
• Objective CA01: The County shall continue to administer, enforce, and enhance County IT Security Policy to monitor, prevent, detect, and respond to cyber-attack hazard. • Objective CA02: Promote necessary education to enable County staff to prepare for, respond to, and recover from potential cyber-attack hazard.
• Objective CA03: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy, as well as state-level cyber attack mitigation efforts, with other local government plans and programs.
Dam Incidents
• Objective DI01: Continue critical business operations. • Objective DI02: Train emergency responders.
• Objective DI03: Enable the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters by improving hazard information.
• Objective DI04: Integrate mitigation plan with other local government plans. • Objective DI05: Coordinate with partner agencies, specifically dam owners and operators to limit impacts to public, infrastructure and environment.
Drought
• Objective D01: Minimize the threat to property posed by the possibility of drought within the County by collaborating and partnering with water utilities, water, and irrigation districts, GSAs, and other relevant stakeholders.
• Objective D02: The County shall continue to enforce the Water Conservation Code to mitigate drought hazard’s impact.
• Objective D03: Promote the development of drought mitigation plan(s), groundwater sustainability plan(s), drought contingency plans, and other local and regional plans to prepare for and respond to drought hazard.
• Objective D04: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Earthquake
• Objective E01: Encourage and comply with higher development standards in hazard-prone areas. • Objective E02: Limit urban development in hazard areas unless regulations, standards, or measures to mitigate the problems are included as part of the application. • Objective E03: All new public and private development shall be designed to increase safety. • Objective E04: The County shall continue to enforce State mandated Health and Safety Codes, which include but are not limited to the California Code of Regulations Title 24 and International Property and Maintenance Code. Specifically, for Seismically designed structures that meet or exceed the requirements stated in the California Building Code Volumes 1 and 2. • Objective E05: Continue critical business operations and minimize public service and utility disruptions related to climate hazards.
• Objective E06: Maximize training opportunities for emergency responders. #1..
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• Objective E07: Enable the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters by improving hazard information and increasing awareness.
• Objective E08: Support efforts to identify and rehabilitate structures that are not earthquake resistant. • Objective E09: Integrate mitigation plan with other local government plans.
Extreme Temperatures: Freeze and Extreme Heat
• Objective ET01: Minimize the threat to County’s property posed by extreme heat hazard and prepare for and respond to potential power outage/shutoff by collaborating and partnering with utility companies and revisiting extreme heat contingency plans.
• Objective ET02: Enable the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters by improving hazard information.
• Objective ET03: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Flood
• Objective FL01: Provide ordinances to ensure that flood insurance can be made available to qualified property owners through state and federal programs.
• Objective FL02: Support programs and activities that increase CRS premium discounts through NFIP. • Objective FL03: Development should not be allowed in areas that are within the designated floodway. • Objective FL04: New developments shall be designed to increase safety. • Objective FL05: Discourage development in areas susceptible to floods. • Objective FL06: Continue critical business operations. • Objective FL07: Integrate mitigation plan with other local government plans. • Objective FL08: Train emergency responders.
• Objective FL09: Coordinate with partner agencies to limit impacts to public, infrastructure and environment.
• Objective FL10: Take actions in floodways to reduce or remove impediments to safe passage of high flows and improve reservoir management flexibility.
Landslide
• Objective LS01: Development west of Highway 5 in areas susceptible to landslides shall be permitted only when a geological soils report has been completed with (a) documented evidence that no such potential exists on the site, or (b) identifying the extent of the problem and the mitigation measures necessary to correct the identified problem.
• Objective LS02: Development west of Highway 5 in areas susceptible to landslides shall be permitted only when a geological soils report has been completed with (a) documented evidence that no such potential exists on the site, or (b) identifying the extent of the problem and the mitigation measures necessary to correct the identified problem.
• Objective LS03: All new development, including near river bluffs shall be designed to increase safety and reduce health hazards.
• Objective LS04: Discourage development on lands that are subject to landslides. • Objective LS05: Implement engineering benchmarks to monitor landslide susceptibility to prevent impacts to roadways.
• Objective LS06: Manage landslide hazard areas by pre-staging road-clearing equipment. • Objective LS07: Continue critical business operations. • Objective LS08: Train emergency responders.
• Objective LS09: Integrate mitigation plan with other local government plans.
Public Health Hazards
• Objective PH01: Lessen the threat to County’s population posed by public health hazards by collaborating and partnering with public health agencies and other relevant stakeholders. and revisiting drought contingency actions.
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• Objective PH02: Promote the development of pandemic plan(s) to prepare for and respond to public health hazards.
• Objective PH03: Develop public health and safety strategies to reduce risks on vulnerable populations. • Objective PH04: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Severe Weather
• Objective SW01: Lessen severe weather hazards-related damages for all types of severe weather hazards that impact the County.
• Objective SW02: Support efforts to identify and rehabilitate structures that are not severe weather hazards (high wind, tornado, etc.) resistant.
• Objective SW03: Maximize training opportunities for emergency responders. • Objective SW04: Encourage and comply with higher development standards in hazard-prone areas. • Objective SW05: All new public and private development shall be designed to increase safety. • Objective SW06: Enable the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters by improving hazard information and increasing awareness.
• Objective SW07: Continue critical business operations and minimize public service and utility disruptions related to severe weather hazards.
• Objective SW08: Integrate mitigation plan and related mitigation strategy with other local government plans and programs.
Wildfire
• Objective WF01: All new development shall be designed to increase protection from wildfire. • Objective WF02: Adequate fire protection shall be provided. • Objective WF03: Roads shall be maintained for the safety of travelers for wildfire. • Objective WF04: Future growth shall not exceed the capacity to provide services such as water and public safety.
• Objective WF05: The County will continue to enforce the State Mandated Health and Safety Code, the Objective WF06: Public Resources Code and the California Code of Regulations, Title 24. • Objective WF07: The County to adopt an ordinance that meets or exceeds the regulations in 14 CCR 1270 et seq to be used in lieu of the minimum State Standards in the State responsibility Areas. • Objective WF08: The County shall continue to support the training of emergency responders. • Objective WF09: Integrate mitigation plan with other local government plans. • Objective WF10: Continue critical business operations.
5.2 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Actions
§201.6(c)(3)(ii):
[The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a] section that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure. All plans approved by FEMA after October 1, 2008, must also address the jurisdiction’s participation in the NFIP, and continued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate.
In order to identify and select mitigation measures to support the mitigation goals, each hazard identified in Section 4: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment and Consequence Analysis was evaluated. The HMPC analyzed a comprehensive set of viable mitigation alternatives for both new and existing buildings and infrastructure that would support identified goals and objectives and reduce or eliminate risks to persons or property or to lessen the actual or potential effects or consequences of a disaster. Each HMPC member was provided with the following list of categories of mitigation measures, which originate from the NFIP CRS:
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• Prevention: Administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence the way land and buildings are developed and built.
• Property protection: Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures to protect them from a hazard or remove them from the hazard area. • Structural: Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the impact of a hazard. • Natural resource protection: Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses, also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems.
• Emergency services: Actions that protect people and property during and immediately after a disaster or hazard event.
• Public information/education and awareness: Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials, and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them.
At the HMPC Meeting #3, the HMPC was provided with a matrix showing examples of potential mitigation action alternatives for each of the above categories, for each of the identified hazards. The HMPC was also provided a handout that explains the categories and provided further examples. Another reference document titled “Mitigation Ideas” developed by FEMA in 2013 and FEMA’s 2020 Mitigation Action Portfolio were distributed to the HMPC via emails and an online link. These documents list the common alternatives for mitigation by hazard and actions funded by FEMA. The HMPC was also instructed to consider both future and existing buildings in considering possible mitigation actions. This reference provides four categories of mitigation actions that were discussed at the HMPC meeting in addition to the NFIP/CRS categories. These include:
• Plans and Regulations
• Structure and Infrastructure Projects
• Education and Awareness
• Natural systems protection
Other alternatives discussed in the webinar include the four ‘A’s’ of mitigation:
• Alter the physical nature of the hazard
Such as wildfire defensible space and fuels treatments, snow fences etc. • Avert the hazard away from people, buildings, and infrastructure Can include engineered solutions, drainage, and channel improvements, floodproofing, fuel breaks
• Adapt to the hazard
Through land use planning, building codes and design standards, warning systems etc. • Avoid the hazard
Natural systems protection, open space, acquisition, or relocation of properties out of hazardous areas
As part of the review of mitigation options, long-term climate change adaptation strategies were also discussed. HMPC members were encouraged to incorporate climate change adaptation measures into the mitigation strategy of their respective jurisdictions utilizing resources and guidance available on the CalAdapt website and California Adaptation Planning Guide.
To facilitate the brainstorming process, the HMPC referred to a matrix of typical mitigation alternatives organized by CRS category for the hazards identified in the plan, in addition to a handout that explains the categories and provided examples. These materials are included in Appendix B. HMPC members were encouraged to develop mitigation alternatives that would protect future, as well as existing, development from hazards per the DMA 2000 regulations. A facilitated discussion then took place to examine the existing actions in the 2017 LHMP and analyze the other possible mitigation alternatives. With an understanding of the alternatives, a brainstorming session was conducted to generate a list of preferred mitigation actions.
The result was new and updated project ideas with the intent of meeting the identified goals and mitigating identified hazards. These new and updated project actions were expanded on during numerous follow-up meetings with County OES staff and participating jurisdictions to focus on the refinement and prioritization #1..
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of new mitigation activities. Once new mitigation actions were defined, the HMPC selected and prioritized the mitigation actions by ranking them using an electronic survey form that asked the participants to rank actions as either low, medium, or high-priority projects; additional information on this process is described below. Wood also discussed remaining information or mitigation gaps that needed to be addressed during the final follow-up meetings. These meetings were more focused stakeholder group sessions intended to wrap up mitigation gaps, discuss opportunities for plan integration, and review the plan implementation and maintenance procedures.
5.2.1 Prioritization Process
Once the mitigation actions were identified, the HMPC was provided with several decision-making tools, including FEMA’s recommended prioritization criteria, STAPLEE, to assist in deciding why one recommended action might be more important, more effective, or more likely to be implemented than another. STAPLEE stands for the following:
• Social: Does the measure treat people fairly? (e.g., different groups, different generations) Does it consider social equity, disadvantaged communities, or vulnerable populations? • Technical: Will it work? (Is the action technically feasible? Does it solve the problem?) • Administrative: Is there capacity to implement and manage the project? (adequate staffing, funding, and other capabilities to implement the project?)
• Political: Who are the stakeholders? Did they get to participate? Will there be adequate political and public support for the project?
• Legal: Does the jurisdiction have the legal authority to implement the action? Is it legal? Are there liability implications?
• Economic: Is the action cost-beneficial? Is there funding available? Will the action contribute to the local economy?
• Environmental: Does the action comply with environmental regulations? Will there be negative environmental consequences from the action?
In accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act requirements, an emphasis was placed on the importance of a benefit-cost analysis in determining action priority. Other criteria used to assist in evaluating the benefitcost of a mitigation action included:
• Does the action address hazards or areas with the highest risk? • Does the action protect lives?
• Does the action protect infrastructure, community assets or critical facilities? • Does the action meet multiple objectives (Multiple Objective Management)? • What will the action cost?
• What is the timing of available funding?
The mitigation categories, multi-hazard actions, and criteria are included in Appendix D.
At the HMPC Meeting #3: mitigation strategy meeting, the HMPC reviewed and discussed the STAPLEE considerations to determine which of the identified actions were most likely to be implemented and effective.
Prioritization of previous mitigation actions identified in the 2017 LHMP that were carried forward in the updated plan. New actions identified in 2021 also were prioritized based on the group discussion. With the STAPLEE criteria in mind, HMPC participants were completed an online survey to select and rank the existing and new mitigation actions. The team was asked to prioritize projects with the above criteria in mind, essentially voting on the projects. The projects with the most “high” points or votes became the higher priority projects. This process provided both consensus and priority for the recommendations.
The process of identification and analysis of mitigation alternatives allowed the HMPC to come to consensus and to collectively prioritize recommended mitigation actions. During the voting process, emphasis was placed on the importance of a benefit-cost review in determining project priority; however, this was not a quantitative analysis.
Cost-Benefit Review
A cost-benefit review was applied in order to prioritize the mitigation recommendations for implementation.
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the recommendation, when taking into account monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits associated with each action. The cost-benefit table for each hazard provides an analysis of the benefit, cost, and a relative priority rank (High, Medium, and Low) for each mitigation activity. The guidelines are listed below. • High – Benefits are perceived to exceed costs without further study or evaluation. • Medium – Benefits are perceived to exceed costs but may require further study or evaluation prior to implementation.
• Low – Benefits and cost evaluations requires additional evaluation prior to implementation.
Funding projects that will help to mitigate imminent hazards are cost-effective and assist in efforts to help communities recover from disasters. Most of the projects are already funded through general fund, application fees or state/federal funds. The majority of the projects are ongoing to ensure mitigation measures are implemented within the County. It is not anticipated that all future projects will be identified in 2021-2022 MJHMP. The County’s MJHMP will also help guide local government to prioritize, be flexible, and identify critical mitigation strategy needs that may arise from a disaster when there is no time to update the local plan.
Benefit-cost was considered in greater detail in the development of the Mitigation Action Plan. For example, parameters were established for assigning the subjective ratings (high, medium, low) to the benefits and costs of each mitigation action. Specifically, each action developed for this plan contains a description of the problem and proposed project, the entity with primary responsibility for implementation, any other alternatives considered, a cost estimate, expected project benefits, potential funding sources, and a schedule for implementation. Development of these project details for each action led to the determination of an overall high, medium, or low priority for each action.
Recognizing the limitations in prioritizing actions from multiple departments and the regulatory requirement to prioritize by benefit-cost to ensure cost-effectiveness, the HMPC decided to pursue mitigation action strategy development and implementation according to the nature and extent of damages, the level of protection and benefits each action provides, political support, project cost, available funding, and jurisdiction and department priority. This process guided the development of a prioritized action plan for Stanislaus County and the participating jurisdictions, as well as the Office of Education.
Cost-effectiveness will be considered in greater detail through a formal benefit-cost analysis when seeking FEMA mitigation grant eligibility and funding (e.g. HMGP, BRIC grant programs) for eligible actions associated with this plan. It is also important for the County to protect critical facilities and infrastructure; this is current implemented by the County’s Capital Projects Team through the CIP. Areas of repetitive loss are high priorities for mitigation funding as they can drain County coffers.
5.2.2 Continued Compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) The NFIP makes federally backed flood insurance available to homeowners, renters, and business owners in participating communities. For most participating communities, FEMA has prepared a detailed Flood Insurance Study (FIS). The study presents water surface elevations for floods of various magnitudes, including the 1% annual chance flood (or 100-year flood) and the 0.2% annual chance flood (or 500-year flood). Base flood elevations and the boundaries of the 100- and 500-year floodplains are shown on Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM), which are the principal tools for identifying the extent and location of the riverine flood hazard. FIRMs are the most detailed and consistent data source available, and for many communities they represent the minimum area of oversight under their floodplain management program.
Participants in the NFIP must, at a minimum, regulate development in floodplain areas in accordance with NFIP criteria. Before issuing a permit to build in a floodplain, participating jurisdictions must ensure that three criteria are met:
• New buildings and those undergoing substantial improvements must, at a minimum, be elevated to protect against damage by the 100-year flood.
• New floodplain development must not aggravate existing flood problems or increase damage to other properties.
• New floodplain development must exercise a reasonable and prudent effort to reduce its adverse impacts on threatened salmonid species.
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Stanislaus County and all the nine jurisdictions participate in the NFIP. Under the NFIP, buildings that were built before the flood hazard was identified on the community’s FIRMs are generally referred to as “preFIRM” buildings. When the NFIP was created, the U.S. Congress recognized that insurance for pre-FIRM buildings would be prohibitively expensive if the premiums were not subsidized by the Federal Government.
Congress also recognized that most of these flood-prone buildings were built by individuals who did not have sufficient knowledge of the flood hazard to make informed decisions. The NFIP requires that full actuarial rates reflecting the complete flood risk be charged on all buildings constructed or substantially improved on or after the effective date of the initial FIRM for the community or after December 31, 1974, whichever is later. These buildings are generally referred to as “Post-FIRM” buildings.
Table 5-1 below shows the dates when Stanislaus County and the jurisdictions joined the NFIP.
Table 5-1 Stanislaus County and Its Jurisdictions’ NFIP Entry Date County/Jurisdiction NFIP Entry Date
Stanislaus County August 1, 1980
City of Ceres March 7, 1997
City of Hughson April 21, 2020
City of Modesto August 15, 1980
City of Newman September 29, 1978
City of Oakdale September 5, 1979
City of Patterson August 1, 1979
City of Riverbank February 3, 1997
City of Turlock May 14, 1981
City of Waterford July 16, 1979
Post-FIRM structures built in compliance with the floodplain regulations are mitigated to withstand floods up through the 100-year event. The insurance rate is different for the two types of structures, as pre-FIRM structures are at higher risk of flooding. The effective date for the current countywide FIRM is August 24, 2021. The County and participating jurisdictions are currently in good standing with the provisions of the NFIP. Compliance is monitored by FEMA regional staff. Maintaining compliance with the NFIP is an important component of flood mitigation and risk reduction. Furthermore, both City of Newman and City of Patterson currently participate in the CRS.
Given the flood hazard and risk in the planning area and recognizing the importance of the NFIP in mitigating flood losses, an emphasis is placed on continued compliance with the NFIP by Stanislaus County and all participating jurisdictions. As NFIP participants, these communities have and will continue to make every effort to remain in good standing with NFIP. This includes continuing to comply with the NFIP’s requirements for adopting official FEMA floodplain maps and maintaining, enforcing, and updating local floodplain regulations.
5.3 Mitigation Strategy Action Plan
§201.6(c)(3)(iii)
[The hazard mitigation strategy shall include an] action plan, describing how the action identified in paragraph (c)(3)(ii) of this section will be prioritized, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdiction. Prioritization shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost-benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. §201.6(c)(3)(iv)
For multi‐jurisdictional plans, there must be identifiable action items specific to the jurisdiction requesting FEMA approval or credit of the plan.
This action plan was developed to present the recommendations developed by the HMPC for how the Stanislaus County planning area can reduce the vulnerability of people, property, infrastructure, and natural #1..
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and cultural resources to future disaster losses. Over time the implementation of these projects will be tracked as a measure of demonstrated progress on meeting the plan’s goals.
5.3.1 Progress on Previous Mitigation Actions
A review of 2017 mitigation actions progress reports indicates that Stanislaus County has been successful in implementing actions identified in the 2017 LHMP Mitigation Strategy, thus, working diligently towards meeting the 2017 plan goals. The 2017 mitigation strategy contained 38 separate mitigation actions. Given that the 2017 LHMP is not a multi-jurisdictional, all the mitigation actions identified were for the County to implement. There was no jurisdiction-specific mitigation action.
As of March 2022, one of these actions have been completed and 37 actions are continuing. The table below summarizes progress implementing mitigation actions. The total continuing actions row summarizes the actions from 2017 that are either still in-progress, have annual implementation, or are continuing but not completed. The new actions in 2021 summarizes the number of actions that were identified during the 2021- 2022 plan update process.
Table 5-2 Mitigation Action Progress Summary for County Progress Category # Of Mitigation Actions
Completed 1
Deleted N/A
Continue In-Progress 36
Continue Not Started 1
Total Continuing Actions 37
New Actions in 2021 5
Grand Total 42
Table 5-3 indicates the details for each of the 2017 mitigation action items that have been completed or deleted.
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Table 5-3 Completed and Deleted Mitigation Actions
ID Corresponding Hazard(s) Mitigation Action Lead Agency Goals Priority Action Status Notes HMP.01 Earthquake
Ensure all Development and Building
Permit Applications in areas with geological
faults shall include measures to mitigate
the impacts based on the Seismic Design
Category associated with Soil
Classification, liquefaction, and seismic
activity, in accordance with California Code
of Regulations Title 24.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
1 High
Completed. This action was fully
implemented since the 2010 plan
but continues to be included in the
HMP to ensure building structural
safety.
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5.3.2 Updated Action Plan
The results of the project identification and prioritization exercise from the third HMPC meeting is summarized in Table 5-4. These projects detail specific actions for reducing future hazard-related losses within Stanislaus County. The projects are organized by jurisdictions and include notes about the department and partners necessary to implement the project. Table 5-4 provides more details on the mitigation actions, including the mitigation action description estimated cost, potential funding sources, timeline, indication of the goal(s) that the projects primarily align with and are marked with their relative level of priority high, medium, and low. The following table also provides status/implementation notes that describe progress made on the actions so far, using the following categories, and, where applicable, notes if there were changes in the priority level from the previous plan:
• Continue In-Progress: work has begun on the project and is ongoing. • Continue not Completed: Not completed: little or no work has been done on the project to date and the HMPC agreed to carry over the action into the updated plan. • New in 2022: The action is new to this plan update; little to no work has been completed.
Many of these mitigation actions are intended to reduce impacts to existing development. Those that protect future development from hazards, as required per the DMA 2000 regulations, are indicated by an asterisk ‘*’ in the action identification number. These actions include those that promote wise development and hazard avoidance, such as building code, mapping, and zoning improvements, and continued enforcement of floodplain development regulations.
Table 5-5 provides a summary of the individual mitigation actions by jurisdiction specific to the municipalities that participated in the 2021 plan update. Together with the County goals, objectives, and actions the tables provide an overview of all the mitigation actions proposed. More details can be found in the respective jurisdictional annexes.
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Table 5-4 Stanislaus County Mitigation Actions
ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 1* Goal 1,
Objectives
EQ01,
EQ02, EQ03
Earthquake Proposed Residential
development may not be
approved at the maximum
density if it is in a geological
fault area or if it does not
meet the requirements of
Ordinance 1182(Building
Code adoption), Title 24 and
16, Stanislaus County Code
unless mitigation measures
are approved at application.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds, State
Earthquake
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
2* Goal 1,
Objectives
EQ01,
EQ02, EQ03
Earthquake The County shall enforce
provisions of the AlquistPriolo Earthquake Fault
Zoning Act.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds, State
Earthquake
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
3 Goal 1,
Objective
EQ07
Earthquake Conduct public outreach
about earthquake risk and
mitigation activities through
participation in and
publicizing The Great
California Shake Out.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
Outreach for the
Great Shake Out
program is
completed
annually. County
OES executed
outreach for this
program each
year since 2017.
4* Goals 1-5,
Objectives
EQ09,
LS08, DI04,
FL07, WF08
Multi-Hazard:
Earthquake,
Landslide,
Dam Incidents,
Flood, Wildfire
Continue to integrate
MJHMP priorities with
policies included in the EOP,
General Plan Safety
Element, and Capital
Improvement Plan and other
local plans.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. The
County recently
updated the EOP
in 2021. The
EOP references
the 2017 LHMP.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus Likewise, the
Safety Element
also incorporates
by reference the
2017 LHMP.
Continued
incorporation of
MJHMP into
other planning
mechanisms is
expected.
5 Goals 1-5,
Objectives
EQ05,
LS06, DI01,
FL06, FL07,
WF09
Multi-Hazard,
Earthquake,
Landslide,
Dam
Incidents,
Flood,
Wildfire
Develop, adopt, maintain,
and update a Continuity of
Operations Plan (COOP).
Provide disaster
management to assist and
support County departments
to maintain their critical
functions and emergency
responders.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. This
action is updated
annually, or as
needed. The
County has six
workshops
scheduled for
2022 to maintain
the COOP.
6 Goal 1-5,
Objectives
EQ06,
LS07, DI02,
FL08, WF07
Multi-Hazard:
Earthquake,
Landslide,
Flood, Dam
Incidents,
Wildfire
Provide NIMS training to all
County employees who may
be called upon during an
emergency. NIMS was
developed so that
responders from different
jurisdictions and disciplines
can work together to provide
a unified approach to
incident management.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. The
County OES
provides NIMS
training to all
County
employees. All
new employees
must complete
NIMS training.
7 Goals 1-5,
Objectives
CT01,
CT02,
Cyber Attack Establish a Cyber Security
Risk Management Program
to identify cyber security
risks, understand the
likelihood and impact, and
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus CT03, and
CT04
put security controls in place
that mitigate the risk to a
level considered acceptable.
The risk management
program will also include
ongoing evaluation and
assessment of cyber
security risk and controls
throughout the life cycle of
the software programs in
place.
8* Goal 1,
Objective
EQ03
Earthquake New public roads and
bridges in areas subject to
significant seismic hazard
shall be designed to
minimize seismic risk.
County
Department of
Public Works
$100,000 –
$1,000,000
General
Funds, State
Earthquake
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Transportation Medium Ongoing Continue InProgress. All new roads and
bridges shall be
designed to
current standards
to withstand
seismic forces.
9* Goal 1,
Objective
EQ03
Earthquake Additional width shall be
required if right-of-way
widths greater than those
specified in the Circulation
Element are necessary to
provide added safety in
geologically unstable areas.
County
Department of
Public Works
$100,000 –
$1,000,000
General
Funds, State
Earthquake
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Transportation Low Ongoing Continue InProgress.
Additional width
shall be required
to provide added
safety in
geologically
unstable areas.
10 Goal 1,
Objectives
EQ04 and
EQ08
Earthquake Take advantage of programs
that would provide funds to
identify and rehabilitate
structures that do not
currently meet building
standard minimums for
earthquake resistance.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds, State
Earthquake
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security; Food,
Water, Shelter;
Health and
Medical;
Communications
Low Ongoing Continue InProgress.
11* Goals 2 and
5;
Landslide All building permit
applications shall be
County
Department of
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
Safety and
Security;
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus Objectives
LS01, LS02,
LS03,
WF01,
WF04, and
WF06
reviewed to ensure
compliance with the
California Code of
Regulations Title 24 and
Subdivision Ordinance in
areas of unstable soils.
Planning and
Community
Development
Application
Fees
Transportation;
Health and
Medical;
Communications
Mitigation
Actions 10 and
31 from the 2017
LHMP were
combined.
12* Goal 2,
Objective
LS01
Landslide Development west of
Highway 5 located in
Seismic Design Category D
shall submit a geological
soils report unless the Chief
Building Official and
Planning Director are
satisfied that no need for the
report is present.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds and
Application
Fees
Safety and
Security;
Transportation
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
13* Goals 2 and
4 Objectives
LS03, FL01
and FL07
Multi-Hazard,
Landslide,
Flooding
The County shall utilize the
CEQA process to ensure
that development does not
occur that would be prone to
flooding or susceptible to
landslides. Most
discretionary projects
require review for
compliance with CEQA. As
part of this review, potential
impacts must be identified
and mitigated or a statement
of overriding concerns
added.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds and
Application
Fees
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
Mitigation
Actions 12 and
28 from the 2017
LHMP were
combined.
14* Goal 2,
Objective
LS03
Landslide The routes of new public
roads in areas subject to
landslides shall be designed
to minimize landslide risks.
County
Department of
Public Works
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
Bonds, Tax
Measures
Transportation High Ongoing Continue InProgress. All new roads shall be
designed to
minimize
landslide risks.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 15* Goal 2,
Objective
LS04
Landslide Engineering benchmarks will
be utilized to survey slope
differences over time and
monitor for changes in
topography to prevent
roadway damage and traffic
disruptions.
County
Department of
Public Works
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
Bonds, Tax
Measures
Transportation High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
Engineering
benchmarks will
be used to
monitor any
changes in
topography to
prevent roadway
damage.
16 Goal 2,
Objective
LS05
Landslide Manage landslide hazard
areas by staging roadclearing equipment in known
landslide prone areas for
faster stabilization.
County
Department of
Public Works
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds
Transportation High Ongoing Continue InProgress. Roadclearing equipment will
continue to be
staged.
17* Goal 2,
Objective
LS03
Landslide Development proposals in
an area identified as having
unstable soils and subject to
landslides such as areas in
the foothills and river bluffs
shall include an engineered
design with emphasis on
soil, degree of slope
measures for mitigating
possible hazards.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
Bonds, Tax
Measures
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
18 Goals 1-4,
Objective
DI05
Dam
Incidents
Continue to partner with
dam operators to identify
projected flood path of travel
as if total loss of dam
occurs.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services, Army
Corps of
Engineers,
California
DSOD, PG&E,
MID, TID,
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security; Food,
Water, Shelter
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. The
County works
with the TID
Flood Working
Group to identify
the projected
flood paths of
certain dams.
The County aims
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus
SSJID, OID,
Merced
Irrigation
District, Other
Dam Owners
and Operators
to work with this
group on an
annual basis.
19 Goal 3,
Objectives
DI02, DI04,
and DI05
Dam
Incidents
Participate in the Stanislaus
County /TID Flood Working
Group to develop and
approve plans specific to
public notification and
evacuation.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services, TID
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security;
Communication
s
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. A siren
will be installed in
the community of
LaGrange for
notification and
evacuation
procedures.
Workshops will
be scheduled
once the siren
and related
evacuation
procedures are in
place for the
community.
20 Goals 3 and
4,
Objectives
DI05, FL09,
and FL10
Dam
Incidents,
Flood
Participate in the Mid San
Joaquin Regional Flood
Management Plan (RFMP)
Updates. The RFMP
identifies flood management
strategies and projects to
reduce flood risks and
advance ecosystem
restoration in the Mid San
Joaquin Region, which
includes Stanislaus County.
Stanislaus
County
Department of
Public Works,
Army Corps of
Engineers,
California
DSOD, PG&E,
MID, TID,
SSJID, OID,
Merced
Irrigation
District, Other
Dam Owners
and Operators
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
Medium Ongoing Continue InProgress. County
OES has been
working with the
Mid San Joaquin
Regional Flood
Management
Working Group.
Mitigation
Actions 20 and
30 from the 2017
LHMP were
combined.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 21 Goal 3,
Objective
DI05
Dam
Incidents
Identify structures within the
flood path of travel and note
impacted properties in data
base.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. As part
of the 2021-2022
MJHMP update
risk assessment,
critical facilities
were identified
that are within
dam inundation
areas.
22 Goal 3,
Objectives
DI04 and
DI05
Dam
Incidents
The County will continue to
participate in Emergency
Action Plan (EAP) training
and exercises. Lessons
learned will be reflected in
plans developed for dam
inundation.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security;
Communication
s
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. The
County staff
takes Cal OES
courses for EAP
planning and
training. The
County also
works with TID
related to dam
inundation. TID
owns and/or
operates several
of the dams in
the County.
23 Goal 3,
Objectives
DI-4 and
DI05
Dam
Incidents
Promote dam safety
awareness each year on
May 31 as part of the
National Dam Safety
Awareness Day campaign,
using FEMA templates and
background materials
coupled with information
from the risk assessment.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 24 Goals 2-5,
Objectives
DR01,
DR02,
DR03, and
DR04
Drought Develop a Public Awareness
Campaign to advertise and
promote on the
StanEmergency webpage to
encourage water
conservation during drought
conditions.
Office of
Emergency
Services
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security; Food,
Water, Shelter
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
25 Goal 1, 2,3
and 4,
Objectives
ET01, ET02
Extreme
Temperatures
: Freeze and
Extreme Heat
The County will regularly
update the Extreme Heat
Contingency Plan, as an
annex to the County’s EOP.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing New in 2022.
The County’s
most recent
Extreme Heat
Contingency
Plan was
produced in
2019.
26 Goal 4,
Objectives
FL09
Flood GIS layers will be
maintained and kept current
of the probability and extent
of flooding based on various
models, primarily data about
historical flooding. Capturing
real-time flood reporting and
monitoring for integration
into flood maps is a key
focus for GIS mitigation
efforts.
County
Strategic
Business
Technology
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP, State
Flood Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
27* Goal 4,
Objectives
FL01, FL02,
and FL04
Flood Through enforcement of
Title 16, require that
structures in a flood plain will
have the Lowest Flood
Elevation constructed at a
minimum level of one foot
above Base Flood Elevation
and to adopt FEMA section
11-01 and provide clarity on
basement definition.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds &
Application
Fees
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue not
Started. The
County needs to
update Title 16 –
Floodplain
Management
Ordinance to
provide clarify on
the basement
definition.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 28 Goal 4,
Objectives
FL02
Flood Elevate existing homes out
of the flood plain due to
repetitive loss and provide
flood mitigation resources on
methods to reduce flood risk
to residents in
neighborhoods most
vulnerable to flooding.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
$100,000
–
$1,000,00
0 General
Funds, State
Flood Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
Medium Ongoing Continue InProgress
29 Goal 4,
Objectives
FL01, FL02,
FL04, and
FL05
Flood Coordinate participation in
the NFIP for Stanislaus
County and ensure
compliance with the
requirements.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
30* Goals 4,
Objectives
FL03
Flood Enforce Chapter 16.50
Floodplain Management
Ordinance of the County
Code and within the
designated floodway shall
obtain State Floodway
Agency and Reclamation
District Board approval.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
31 Goal 4,
Objectives
FL04 and
FL05
Flood The Public Works
Department will provide
information and resources to
landowners in areas subject
to flooding.
Department of
Public Works
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. Public
Works will
continue to
provide flood
information. The
efforts related to
establishing flood
control districts in
communities
subject to
repetitive
flooding impacts
was split into a
separate action.
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Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus 32 Goal 4,
Objectives
FL04 and
FL05
Flood The Public Works
Department will work with
communities subject to
repetitive flood impacts to
help them form flood control
districts.
Department of
Public Works
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. This is
an existing action
that was added
as a separate
action focused
on establishing
flood control
districts.
33 Goal 4,
Objective
FL09
Flood Increase monitoring
capabilities for the Dry
Creek watershed.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP, State
Flood Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
Medium Ongoing Continue InProgress. This
activity/action
was new to the
2017 LHMP and
was identified in
the DWR Flood
Plan. It involves
the installation of
a water level
gauge on Dry
Creek.
34 Goal 5,
Objective
FL10
Flood Participate in FEMA Direct
Technical Assistance
awarded to City of Modesto
to perform benefit-cost
analyses for risk mitigation
actions on the Tuolumne
River floodway.
Stanislaus
County
Department of
Public Works,
City of
Modesto
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds
Safety and
Security;
Transportation;
Health and
Medical
High Ongoing New in 2022.
35 Goal 5,
Objective
FL10
Flood Remove impediments to
passage of increased flow
releases from New Don
Pedro Dam on the
Tuolumne River to improve
Stanislaus
County
Department of
Public Works,
City of
Modesto
$100,000
–
$1,000,00
0 General
Funds, State
Flood Hazard
Mitigation
Funding,
BRIC, HMGP
Safety and
Security;
Transportation;
Health and
Medical
High Ongoing New in 2022.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline ImplementationStatus management flexibility for
high-flow events.
36 Goal 5,
Objective
FL10
Flood Support regional flood
management strategies
through continued
participation with the Mid
San Joaquin Regional Flood
Management Plan update
process and by accounting
for the projected impacts of
climate change on flood risk
in Stanislaus County in order
to protect vulnerable
communities and
infrastructure and to restore
floodplains along the San
Joaquin River and its
tributaries.
Stanislaus
County
Department of
Public Works,
City of
Modesto, Mid
San Joaquin
Regional Flood
Management
Plan Working
Group
<$10,000 General
Funds, State
Flood Hazard
Mitigation
Funding,
BRIC, HMGP
Safety and
Security;
Transportation;
Health and
Medical
High Ongoing New in 2022.
37 Goal 5,
Objective
FL10
Flood Improve engagement with
and flood protection for
socially vulnerable and
disadvantaged communities
as part of an effort to
understand how
management actions can
increase adaptation
capacity, reduce flood risk,
and provide benefits to
these communities.
Chief
Executive
Officer/OES,
Environmental
Justice
Program of
Catholic
Charities of
Stockton, City
of Modesto
<$10,000 General
Funds
Safety and
Security;
Transportation;
Health and
Medical
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
38 Goals 1, 2,
3, 4, and 5,
Objectives
PH01,
PH02,
Public Health
Hazards
Conduct a COVID-19 After
Action Review Plan that
involves working with
County Hospitals and
Medical Providers to
Health
Services
Agency
$100,000
–
$1,000,00
0 General
Fund,
Coronavirus
(COVID-19)
Aid, Relief,
Safety and
Security; Health
and Medical
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline Implementation Status PH03, and
PH04
increase bed capacity of
existing hospitals.
and
Economic
Security
(CARES) Act
Relief
Funding
39 Goal 1, 2, 3
and 4,
Objectives
SW 01, 02,
06 and 07
Severe
Weather:
Dense Fog,
Heavy Rain,
Thunderstorm
s, Hail,
Lightning,
High Wind,
Tornado
Champion a Severe
Weather Preparedness
Campaign with participating
jurisdictions and neighboring
counties to enhance existing
weather-related campaigns
that share information on
severe weather hazards,
including all hazards
preparedness information.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services/NWS/
DWR
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
40 Goal 1, 2, 3
and 4,
Objectives
SW 01, 02,
06 and 07
Severe
Weather:
Dense Fog,
Heavy Rain,
Thunderstorm
s, Hail,
Lightning,
High Wind,
Tornado
Organize targeted outreach
plans for socially vulnerable
populations in the County;
including accessibility to
shelters; multi-lingual
pamphlets to increase
awareness; and long-term
engagement with underrepresented groups, farm
worker organizations, and
other Community-Based
Organizations (CBOs) to
improve community’s
adaptive capacity to respond
to natural and climaterelated hazards.
Chief
Executive
Officer/OES
and
Environmental
Justice
Program of
Catholic
Charities of
Stockton
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
41 Goal 1, 2, 3
and 4,
Objectives
SW 01, 02,
06 and 07
Severe
Weather: Dense
Fog, Heavy
Rain,
Thunderstorms,
Obtain back-up power
generation at EOCs, Critical
Facilities, and Shelters.
Chief
Executive
Officer/Office
of Emergency
Services
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds,
HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
New in 2022.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline Implementation Status Hail, Lightning,
High Wind,
Tornado
42 Goal 5,
Objectives
WF01,
WF04, and
WF06
Wildfire All building permit
applications shall be
reviewed to ensure
compliance with the
California Code of
Regulations, Title 24,
County Ordinances and
California PRC.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds & Fees
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
43 Goal 5,
Objectives
WF01,
WF04, and
WF06
Wildfire The California Fire Code
shall be enforced during
inspections and
maintenance of structures
regulated under that code.
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
<$10,000 General
Funds &
Application
Fees
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. The
California Fire
Code will
continue to be
enforced.
44* Goals 5,
Objectives
WF01,
WF04, and
WF05
Wildfire All discretionary projects in
the County shall be referred
to the County Fire
Prevention Bureau and to
the appropriate Fire District
for comment. The comments
of these agencies will be
used to condition or
recommend modifications of
the project as it relates to
fire safety and rescue
issues.
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
<$10,000 General
Funds & Fees
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
Stanislaus
County Fire
Prevention and
the appropriate
Fire District will
continue to
review
discretionary
projects.
45 Goal 5,
Objectives
WF02,
WF03,
WF05, and
WF06
Wildfire The County Fire Prevention
Bureau shall work with the
California Department of
Forestry and Fire Protection
and with local fire districts to
minimize the danger from
wildfires and the related
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
<$10,000 General
Funds &
Fees, State
Wildfire
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security;
Energy
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. Project
applicants are
advised to reach
out to CALFIRE
for input into their
project.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline Implementation Status impacts of post fire
conditions.
46* Goal 5,
Objectives
WF02,
WF04,
WF05, and
WF06
Wildfire All new development shall
have adequate fire flow
water supply that meets or
exceeds the requirement
specific to the project as
required by the California
Fire Code-appendix B,
NFPA 1142, County-District
Ordinance or the California
Code of Regulations Title 14
1270 in the State
Responsibility Areas (SRA).
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds &
Fees, State
Wildfire
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security; Food,
Water, Shelter;
Energy
High Ongoing Continue InProgress.
47* Goal 5,
Objectives
WF02,
WF04,
WF05, and
WF06
Wildfire All building permits and
discretionary projects within
the SRAs, as identified by
the California Department of
Forestry and Fire Protection,
shall meet the minimum
development standards
outlined in the California
Code of Regulations Title 14
1270 (SRA Fire Safe
Regulations) and Title 14
Section 1299.01 (Fire
Hazard Reduction Around
Buildings and Structures
Regulations) for SRAs
and/or VHFHSZs.
County
Department of
Planning and
Community
Development
<$10,000 General
Funds &
Fees, State
Wildfire
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing Continue InProgress. Fire
flows will
continue to be
evaluated as new
projects are
submitted. The
only VHFHSZs
are in the
western portion
of County. This
area has little
development.
48* Goal 5,
Objectives
WF05,
WF06, and
WF08
Wildfire Adopt a County Ordinance
as requested by the State
Board of Forestry to be
enforced in the SRA within
Stanislaus County that
meets or exceeds the
regulations of 14 CCR 1270.
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
<$10,000 General
Funds &
Fees, State
Wildfire
Hazard
Mitigation
Funding
Safety and
Security
High Not
Started
Continue not
Started.
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ID
Links to
Goals &
Objectives
Hazard(s)
Mitigated
Description/Background/
Benefits
Lead Agency
and Partners
Cost
Estimate
Potential
Funding FEMA Lifeline Priority Timeline Implementation Status 49* Goal 5,
Objectives
WF05,
WF06, and
WF08
Wildfire Identify and construct
secondary ingress/egress
transportation and
circulation improvements for
wildfire emergencies in WUI
areas in the eastern and
western portions of the
County.
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
$100,000
–
$1,000,00
0 General
Funds &
Fees, HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing New in 2022.
50 Goal 5,
Objectives
WF05,
WF06, and
WF08
Wildfire Work with cities and local
fire districts to develop
evacuation plans and
develop education and
outreach materials to
populations most vulnerable
to wildfire risk.
Fire
Warden/Fire
Prevention
Bureau
$10,000 –
$100,000
General
Funds &
Fees, HMGP
Safety and
Security
High Ongoing New in 2022.
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Table 5-5 Jurisdictional Mitigation Action Summary
ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description City of Ceres
1 Dam
Incidents
Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on Dam
Safety
City of Ceres
Executive
Team,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Dam Safety – The City will organize a Social
Media Campaign that will run quarterly on City
of Ceres platforms to advertise and promote
evacuation routes or pre-incident preparation
related to dam incidents that can be done by
the public.
2 Dam
Incidents
Prepare/Update the
Emergency Action
Plan, Emergency
Operations Plan
and Emergency
Response Plan
City of Ceres
Executive
Team,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
Medium Prepare/Update the Emergency Action Plan,
Emergency Operations Plan and Emergency
Response Plan to reduce risks associated with
dam failure; build partnerships and coordinate
with neighboring agencies if necessary to
update these plans.
3 Drought Further restrict
outdoor water use
during drought
events beyond the
already established
requirements
City of Ceres
Executive
Team
Medium Further restrict outdoor water use during
drought events beyond the already established
requirements in the City’s Urban Water
Management Plan, Water Shortage
Contingency Plan and Water Conservation
Plan.
4 Drought Enhance the City’s
Water
Conservation
Program and
further encourage
water conservation
City of Ceres
Executive
Team
Medium Enhance the City’s Water Conservation
Program and further encourage water
conservation by providing additional rebate
options for appliance replacement to promote
water-efficient models.
City of Hughson
1 Dam
Incidents
Prepare/Update the
Emergency Action
Plan (EAP) and the
Emergency
Operations Plan
(EOP) to reduce
risks associated
with dam failure.
City of
Hughson,
Public Works
Department,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
High Prepare/Update the Emergency Action Plan
(EAP) and the Emergency Operations Plan
(EOP) to reduce risks associated with dam
failure.
2 Dam
Incidents
Build partnerships
and mutual aid
agreements with
neighboring
agencies in order to
quickly respond in
the event of a dam
incident.
City of
Hughson,
Public Works
Department,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
High Build partnerships and mutual aid agreements
with neighboring agencies in order to quickly
respond in the event of a dam incident.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 3 Dam
Incidents
Implement an alert
system capable of
notifying residents
of emergencies
through landlines,
cell phones, and
emails.
City of
Hughson
Public Works
Department,
Fire
Department,
Stanislaus
County,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
High Implement an alert system capable of notifying
residents of emergencies through landlines,
cell phones, and emails.
4 Drought The City enforces
all Water Board
regulations
restricting potable
water use in
drought years.
City of
Hughson
Public Works
Department,
Stanislaus
County
Medium The City enforces all Water Board regulations
restricting potable water use in drought years.
5 Flood Drainage Systems
for Flood
Prevention
City of
Hughson,
Public Works
Department
High Drainage Systems for Flood Prevention – The
City will provide and improve existing water
drainage systems because the existing
drainage systems need pumping capacity
upgrades. Alternatives may involve adding
capacity to existing drainage basins in the City.
This action would benefit the City’s existing
drainage system and pump stations would
prevent emergency flooding. This action would
also prevent property damage and potential
safety concerns.
6 Extreme
Temperature:
Extreme Heat
and Freeze
Senior Center
HVAC
Replacement
City of
Hughson,
Public Works
Department
High Senior Center HVAC Replacement – This
project would require replacing two of the three
HVAC units that supply heating and air
conditioning to the Senior Center. Currently
the Senior Center is used as a cooling zone
and only has two working units with one of the
units being older than fifteen years old.
Updating the current HVAC system will allow
the continuing use of Senior Center as a
cooling zone and also as facility to be used
during pandemic/epidemic for public services.
7 Public
Health
Hazards
The City will
enhance existing
public health
programs they
partner on with the
Stanislaus County
Public Health
Officer.
City of
Hughson,
Stanislaus
County Health
Services
Agency
Medium The City will enhance existing public health
programs they partner on with the Stanislaus
County Public Health Officer. This includes
following Public Health orders by the State of
California and the County of Stanislaus Public
Health Officer. This includes advertising
vaccination and testing clinics at the City’s
Senior Center and distributing masks at City
Hall during incidents when there are higher
incidents of public health concerns in the
community.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description City of Modesto
1 Flood Relocation of Sutter
Treatment Primary
Facilities
City of
Modesto
High The Sutter Treatment Primary Facilities are
located along the Tuolumne River within the
FEMA designated floodplain. It experienced
repeated flooding several times previously.
The “Sutter Treatment Facility Feasibility
Study” that was finalized in April 2015
concluded that flood protection of the Sutter
Plant was not feasible. To avoid future
flooding, the Sutter Treatment Primary
Facilities will be demolished. New facilities will
be constructed 6.5 miles away at the Jennings
Treatment Plant Facilities, which are outside
the 100-year FEMA floodplain along the San
Joaquin River.
The footprint of the old primary facilities will be
incorporated into the Tuolumne River Regional
Park Master Plan and regraded to further
reduce flood risk by removing levees around
the sludge drying beds and by relocating the
emergency holding pond.
2 Flood Tuolumne River &
Carpenter Road
Bridge River
Restoration Project
City of
Modesto
High A 1999 FEMA Flood Hazard Mitigation Study
identified that the constriction at Carpenter
Road on the Tuolumne River was caused by
the bridge and roadway embankment on the
north side of the river. The embankment could
be replaced by a “causeway” (lengthened
bridge). Additionally, the remaining elevated
land east of Carpenter roadway embankment
(former Carpenter Eastern Landfill) and the
elevated land to the west (existing Carpenter
Western Landfill) would have to be removed
and regraded to increase the cross-sectional
flow area, to eliminate the constriction on the
river and lower flood elevations and reduce the
repeated flooding of the neighborhood
adjacent and upstream of these flood flow
obstacles. Homes in the adjacent
neighborhood “Robertson Road
Neighborhood” have experienced flooding in
1950, 1955, 1969, and 1997. A hydraulic
analysis to determine the boundary of the new
100-year floodplain as if the project had been
completed, is underway to determine how
many fewer homes would flood in a 100-year
event.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 3 MultiHazard:
Dam
Incidents,
Flood
Tuolumne River
Floodway Capacity
Increase
City of
Modesto,
USACE, DWR,
MID, TID, City
of Ceres,
Central Valley
Flood
Protection
Board,
Tuolumne
River Regional
Park JPA
High The problem with the floodway capacity
downstream of Don Pedro is that the current
operation objective releases of 9,000 cfs (or
non-damaging flow) limit the preemptive
releases needed to minimize a massive
uncontrolled spill from the reservoir, which in
the past has resulted in repeated flooding of
disadvantaged communities that line the
edges of the Tuolumne River as well as the
City of Modesto Sutter Avenue Wastewater
Treatment Plant. Some of these communities
have experienced repeated flooding in
1950,1955, 1969 and 1997.
The project aims to increase the floodway
capacity downstream of Don Pedro to match
or exceed the maximum-controlled release
level of approximately 15,000 cfs upstream of
Modesto, and 25,000 cfs below the Dry Creek
confluence, in order to grant Don Pedro
Reservoir operators more flexibilities to reduce
flood risk, increase water supply and address
impacts caused by climate change in the San
Joaquin Valley.
City of Newman
1 Drought Low-Water Use
Landscape
Conversion
Program – Lawn to
Garden Program
City of
Newman
Public Works
Department
Low Low-Water Use Landscape Conversion
Program – Lawn to Garden Program Grant
that allows residential customers in the City to
replace lawn and other water-intensive
landscaping with water-efficient and droughttolerant landscaping. 2 Earthquake Establish
procedures and
standards for the
structural
evaluation of
existing
unreinforced
masonry buildings
City of
Newman
Building
Department &
Planning
Department
Medium Establish procedures and standards for the
structural evaluation of existing unreinforced
masonry buildings located in the downtown
area; carry out a study to identify other
unreinforced masonry buildings and other
structures within the City that would be at risk
during seismic events.
3 Earthquake Repair one of
Newman Police
Department’s
exterior walls that is
at risk of
earthquake hazard
City of
Newman
Building
Department &
Police
Department
High Repair one of Newman Police Department’s
exterior walls that is at risk of earthquake
hazard
4 Flood Orestimba Creek
Overflow Flood
Reduction Project
City of
Newman,
Southern
Pacific
High Orestimba Creek Overflow Flood Reduction
Project
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description Railroad,
Stanislaus
County Public
Works
Department
5 Flood Orestimba Creek
Debris
Maintenance and
Channel
Conveyance
Enhancement
Program
City of
Newman,
Stanislaus
County Public
Works
Department
High Orestimba Creek Debris Maintenance and
Channel Conveyance Enhancement Program
6 Extreme
Temperatures:
Freeze and
Extreme Heat
Cooling Zone
Permanent Solar
Back-up Generator
City Manager’s
Office
High Cooling Zone Permanent Solar Back-up
Generator
7 Severe
Weather,
Multi-Hazard
City Hall
Emergency
Operations Center
(EOC) Back-up
Power
City of
Newman Fire
Department
Medium City Hall Emergency Operations Center (EOC)
Back-up Power
8 Severe
Weather,
Multi-Hazard
Transfer Switch to
Connect to Critical
Pump Stations in
City
City of
Newman
Public Works
Department,
Stanislaus
County Public
Works
Department
Medium City Hall Emergency Operations Center (EOC)
Back-up Power
9 Earthquake,
Multi-Hazard
Continue to
implement policies
established in the
City’s General Plan
Safety Element
City of
Newman
Medium Continue to implement policies established in
the City’s General Plan Safety Element
City of Oakdale
1 Dam
Incidents
Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on Dam
Safety
City of
Oakdale
Executive
Team,
USACE,
DSOD,
ConAgra
Grocery
Products
Company,
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Dam Safety – The City will organize a Social
Media Campaign that will run quarterly on City
of Oakdale platforms to advertise and promote
evacuation routes or pre-incident preparation
related to dam incidents that can be done by
the public.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description
LLC, MID, TID,
OID, SSJID
2 Drought Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on
Water
Conservation
City of
Oakdale
Executive
Team
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Water Conservation – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Oakdale platforms to advertise and
promote conservation and water saving ideas
that can be performed by the public.
3 Flood Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on Flood
Preparedness
City of
Oakdale
Executive
Team
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Flood Preparedness – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Oakdale platforms to advertise and
promote evacuation routes or pre-incident
preparation for flood hazards that can be done
by the public.
4 Wildfire Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on
Preventing Wildfire
Hazards
City of
Oakdale
Executive
Team
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Wildfire Hazards – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Oakdale platforms to advertise and
promote evacuation routes, fire prevention,
and pre-incident preparation that can be done
by the public.
City of Patterson
1 Dam
Incidents
The City shall
establish and
maintain
cooperative
working
relationships
among various
stakeholders to
ensure that dam
incident and flood
inundation impacts
to essential public
facilities are
minimized.
City of
Patterson
Public Works
Department,
Dam
Operators,
DSOD, DPWD,
San Joaquin
River
Exchange
Contractors
Authority,
Stanislaus
County
High The City shall establish and maintain
cooperative working relationships among
public agencies, dam operators, DSOD,
DPWD, San Joaquin River Exchange
Contractors Authority, and the County of
Stanislaus to ensure that dam incident and
flood inundation impacts to existing essential
public facilities, such as Fire Station 52 (City’s
EOC) are minimized. This action is intended to
focus on dam safety concerns related to the
Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir in Del Puerto
Canyon in the Coast Range foothills west of
the City of Patterson and south of the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
2 Drought Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on
Water
Conservation
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department,
High Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Water Conservation – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Patterson platforms to advertise and
promote conservation and water saving ideas
that can be performed by the public.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description Public Works
Department
3 Drought Further restrict
outdoor water use
during drought
events beyond the
already established
requirements
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team
Medium Further restrict outdoor water use during
drought events beyond the already established
requirements in the City’s Urban Water
Management Plan and Drought Contingency
Plan.
4 Earthquake Conduct public
outreach about
earthquake risk and
mitigation activities
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department
Medium Conduct public outreach about earthquake risk
and mitigation activities
5 Earthquake Continue to
implement policies
established in the
City’s General Plan
Health and Safety
Element
City of
Patterson,
Public Works
Department
Medium Continue to implement policies established in
the City’s General Plan Health and Safety
Element, such as requiring the preparation of
geotechnical reports to impose appropriate
mitigation measures to ensure, within the limits
of technical and economic feasibility, that new
structures are able to withstand the effects of
seismic activity, including liquefaction, slope
instability, expansive soils or other geologic
hazards.
6 Extreme
Temperature
: Freeze and
Extreme
Heat
Work on finding
multiple cooling
centers at different
locations to cover
the entire
geographic extent
of the City.
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department,
Public Works
Department
High Work on finding multiple cooling centers at
different locations to cover the entire
geographic extent of the City; pay additional
attention to disadvantaged communities and
vulnerable populations that do not have
adequate transportation to arrive at the City’s
downtown area.
7 Flood Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on Flood
Preparedness
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department,
Public Works
Department
High Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Flood Preparedness – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Patterson platforms to advertise and
promote evacuation routes or pre-incident
preparation for flood hazards that can be done
by the public.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 8 Flood The City shall
prepare and adopt
Flood Management
Plans and practices
aimed at protecting
life and property
from the harmful
effects of flooding
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department,
Public Works
Department
High The City shall prepare and adopt Flood
Management Plans and practices aimed at
protecting life and property from the harmful
effects of flooding. The effort includes
establishing criteria for evaluating whether new
development should be located in flood hazard
zones, identifying construction methods or
other methods to minimize damage if new
development is located in flood hazard zones,
and maintaining the structural and operational
integrity of essential public facilities during
flooding.
9 Flood The City will
implement flood
hazard mitigation
prior to new
development by not
approving new
development in
areas subject to a
100-year flood
event, unless and
until the flood
hazard has been
mitigated.
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team,
Community
Development
Department,
Public Works
Department
High The City will implement flood hazard mitigation
prior to new development by not approving
new development in areas subject to a 100-
year flood event, based on FEMA or on other
updated mapping acceptable to the City,
unless and until the flood hazard has been
mitigated. Mitigation may be accomplished by
one, or a combination of, the following: 1)
compliance with Title 17 of the City’s Municipal
Code, Flood Hazard areas; installation of flood
control improvements along Del Puerto Creek
and/or Salado Creek; and avoidance of flood
prone areas.
10 Wildfire Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on
Wildfire Hazards
City of
Patterson
Executive
Team, City’s
Fire
Department
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Wildfire Hazards – The City will organize a
Social Media Campaign that will run quarterly
on City of Patterson platforms to advertise and
promote evacuation routes, fire prevention,
and pre-incident preparation that can be done
by the public.
11 Wildfire Consider utilizing
prescribed and
monitored safe
burn to reduce the
high fire threat to
the west of the City.
City’s Fire
Department
High Consider utilizing prescribed and monitored
safe burn to reduce the high fire threat to the
west of the City.
12 Wildfire The City shall
require property
owners to remove
fire hazards
City’s Fire
Department
High The City shall require property owners to
remove fire hazards, including vegetation,
hazardous structures and materials, and
debris, as directed by the Fire Department
City of Riverbank
1 Dam
Incidents
Dam Safety
Awareness Month
Public Works
Department,
Stanislaus
Medium Promote dam safety awareness each year on
May 31 as part of the National Dam Safety
Awareness Day campaign, using FEMA
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description County Office
of Emergency
Services,
USACE,
DSOD, TID,
SSJID
templates and background materials coupled
with information from the risk assessment.
2 Earthquake,
Flood,
Drought
Retrofit Potable
Water Supply Wells
Public Works
Department,
Water Utilities
Department
High The City will install retrofits and security
upgrades at multiple potable water supply
wells, including Well #6 at 6082 Tennessee
Avenue, Well #7 at 2308 McAllister Lane, Well
#8 at 2402 Novi Drive, #9 at 5201 Prospector
Parkway, and Well #3 at 6234 Jackson
Avenue, Well #4 at 3017 High Street, Well #10
at 5200 Oakdale Road, and Well #12 at 6343
Chief Tucker.
3 Earthquake,
Flood
Upgrade Waste
Water Lift Stations
in the City
Public Works
Department,
Water Utilities
Department
High The City needs to upgrade and retrofit several
wastewater lift stations. Lift stations that need
upgrades include the Silverock Lift Station at
the northwest corner of Oakdale Road and
Silverock Road, Townsend Lift Station at the
northwest corner of 8th Street and Townsend
Avenue, Jackson Lift Station on the west side
of Jackson Avenue and Country Manor Drive,
Estelle Lift Station on the northeast corner of
Colony Manor Drive and Estelle Avenue, River
Cove Lift Station on the northeast corner of
Royal Links Drive and River Cove Drive,
Candlewood Lift Station on the south side of
Candlewood Place between Arrowwood Drive
and Oakdale Road, Jackson Lift Station on the
west side of Jackson Avenue between Ward
Avenue and Country Manor Drive, Roselle Lift
Station on Roselle Avenue between Talbot
Avenue and Soares Place, and Terminal Life
Station at Terminal Avenue and Virginia
Street.
4 Earthquake,
Flood
Protect Waste
Water Trunk Line
Public Works
Department,
Water Utilities
Department
High Complete a reinforcement or redesign to
improve the structural integrity of the
supporting trestle across the Stanislaus River
to the City’s WWTP.
5 Flood Storm Drain Outfall
Improvement
Public Works
Department,
Water Utilities
Department
High Upgrade and upsize the Storm Drain Line at
the end of 8th Street at the Stanislaus River.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 6 Landslide Road Stabilization
Monitoring
Public Works
Department,
Caltrans
Medium The City will continue to coordinate with the
California Department of Transportation to
annually monitor and stabilize slopes along
roads near or adjacent to Stanislaus River
subject to landslides, soil erosion, and rock
slides.
7 Public
Health
Hazards
Collaborate with
County public
health experts and
health-related
organizations, to
understand
environmental
hazards,
communicable
diseases, and
public health data
to explore how to
address City public
health goals and
vulnerability to
public health
hazards
City Manager’s
Office, Senior
Care
Organizations,
Housing
Authorities,
Community
Health
Centers,
Stanislaus
County Health
Services
Agency, and
Stanislaus
County Public
Health
Department
Medium Collaborate with County public health experts
and health-related organizations, such as
senior care centers, faith-based organizations,
and housing authorities to understand
environmental hazards, communicable
diseases, and public health data in order to
explore how to address City public health
goals and vulnerability to public health hazards
across socially vulnerable populations, such as
children, seniors, low-income communities,
and other communities disproportionately
affected by natural and human-health hazards.
City of Turlock
1 Dam
Incidents
Develop a Public
Awareness
Campaign on Dam
Safety
City of Turlock
Executive
Team,
USACE,
DSOD, Merced
Irrigation
District, TID
Medium Develop a Public Awareness Campaign on
Dam Safety – The City will organize a Social
Media Campaign that will run quarterly on City
of Ceres platforms to advertise and promote
evacuation routes or pre-incident preparation
related to dam incidents that can be done by
the public.
2 Drought Limit
lawn/landscaping
watering days for
residential watering
to three days per
week
City of Turlock
Executive
Team
High Limit lawn/landscaping watering days for
residential watering to three days per week;
there is an existing ongoing discussion to
further mandate a reduction to allow for only
two days per week.
3 Drought Continue the
installation of water
meters in all City
parks to monitor
water usage and
reduce water usage
by 20% in the
future.
City of Turlock
Executive
Team,
Municipal
Services Team
High Continue the installation of water meters in all
City parks to monitor water usage and reduce
water usage by 20% in the future.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 4 Drought Terminate the
watering of
ornamental
grass/turf for
commercial and
government
buildings and fire
stations.
City of Turlock
Executive
Team, Fire
Department
High Terminate the watering of ornamental
grass/turf for commercial and government
buildings and fire stations.
5 Drought Develop an
educational flyer on
Water
Conservation to be
included in water
bills.
City of Turlock
Executive
Team,
Municipal
Services Team
Medium Develop an educational flyer on Water
Conservation to be included in water bills.
6 Drought Restrict water
usage for high-flow
drills, specifically
truck, ground
monitor, and
master stream
appliances
City’s Fire
Department
High Restrict water usage for high-flow drills,
specifically truck, ground monitor, and master
stream appliances
7 Drought Explore the
purchase of a
pump pod,
City’s Fire
Department
High Explore the purchase of a pump pod, which is
a water-recirculating platform for training and
pump testing evolutions
8 Drought Continue working
on and finishing the
City’s planned well
and surface water
projects by August/
September 2023
City of Turlock
Executive
Team, City of
Ceres, SRWA
High Continue working on and finishing the City’s
planned well and surface water projects by
August/September 2023, which will offer
redundancy in the City’s water supply
9 Extreme
Temperature
s: Freeze
and Extreme
Heat
Develop an
Extreme
Temperatures Pilot
Program
City of Turlock
Executive
Team, Fire
Department,
Catholic
Charities of the
Diocese of
Stockton
Environmental
Justice
Program
(potential CBO
partner)
Medium Develop an Extreme Temperatures Pilot
Program that addresses Short-term Heat
Adaptation Projects, such as Emergency
Alerts, Resiliency Hubs, and Cooling Centers
and Long-Term Adaptation Projects, such as
Urban Greening (Tree plantings, shading, etc.)
and Community Cohesion initiatives
(Connections with Community-Based
Organizations [CBOs], local residents, and
volunteers to check on neighbors during
extreme heat events) to building capacity
within the City related to extreme heat.
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description City of Waterford
1 Dam
Incidents
Dam Safety
Awareness Month
Public Works
Department,
Stanislaus
County Office
of Emergency
Services,
USACE,
DSOD, MID,
TID
Medium Promote dam safety awareness each year on
May 31 as part of the National Dam Safety
Awareness Day campaign, using FEMA
templates and background materials coupled
with information from the risk assessment.
2 MultiHazard;
Drought,
Earthquake,
Extreme
Heat, Flood,
Severe
Weather
Water Storage
Tanks Upgrades
Public Works
Department
High The City has a very old water system that is
slowly getting upgraded, however, the City
does not have storage tanks for water. With
water storage tanks, the City will always have
the emergency capacity, in case a natural
disaster knocks out the City’s well sites.
Office of Education
1 Dam
Incidents
Emergency
Planning
Procedures
Enhancements
Operations
and Support
Services
Department,
USACE,
DSOD, PG&E,
MID, TID,
SSJID, OID,
Other Dam
Owners and
Operators
High Enhance each District’s emergency planning
procedures by including evacuation planning
for dam incident events and coordinating with
Stanislaus County OES, Dam Owners, and
Dam Operators.
2 Earthquake Non-Structural
Seismic Safety
Enhancements
Operations
and Support
Services
Department
Low Non-Structural Seismic Safety Enhancements
for School Districts on the West Side of the
County
3 Earthquake Conduct Seismic
School Safety
Project Outreach
District
Superintendent
Offices
Medium Conduct Seismic School Safety Project
Outreach - educate the public on school safety
conditions and improvement projects
4 Earthquake Perform Seismic
Evaluations and
Create Inventory of
School Buildings
that require
upgrades
Operations
and Support
Services
Department
Medium Perform seismic evaluations and create a
seismic inventory of school buildings and
facilities; subsequently develop projects to
address the buildings determined to be in the
greatest need of both non-structural and
structural upgrades
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 5 Severe
Weather
Permanent BackUp Power
Generation
Operations
and Support
Services
Department
High Install back-up and permanent power
generation at school districts that provide
reliable power during energy shortages.
6 Severe
Weather
Preliminary
Feasibility Study on
Solar Technology
at Schools
Operations
and Support
Services
Department
High Conduct a preliminary feasibility study on the
investment benefits of purchasing and
installing solar technology and backup
generation facilities at school sites within the
SCOE.
7 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Severe
Weather
Tree and
Vegetation
Management
Operations
and Support
Services
Department,
All School
Districts within
SCOE
High Tree and Vegetation Management – The
SCOE will conduct routine planting and
maintenance projects.
8 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather
Emergency
Preparation Drills
District
Superintendent
Offices, All
School
Districts within
SCOE
High Emergency Preparation Drills - update
emergency drill protocols within SCOE, home
alert systems, and shelter-in-place guidelines.
9 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather,
Cyber Attack
Comprehensive
School
Modernization
Projects
Operations
and Support
Services
Department,
All School
Districts within
SCOE
Medium Comprehensive Modernization Projects: New
Construction and Modernization, Infrastructure
Improvements, and Technology Upgrades.
10 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather
Resiliency and
Energy Efficiency
Enhancements at
Existing Schools
Operations
and Support
Services
Department,
All School
Districts within
SCOE
Medium Enhance resiliency by improving energy
efficiency and clean energy improvements at
existing schools through lighting
improvements, HVAC replacement, and load
adjustments.
11 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Continuity of
Operations Plan
District
Superintendent
Offices
High Create a Continuity of Operations Plan
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description Severe
Weather
12 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather
Individual
Emergency Plans
for Students with
Disabilities
Special
Education
Department
High Create an Individual Emergency Plans for
Students with Disabilities
13 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather
Campus
Emergency
Response Team to
Implement the
SCOE Incident
Plan
District
Superintendent
Offices
High Formulate a Campus Emergency Response
Team to Implement and Modify the SCOE
Incident Plan
14 MultiHazard:
Earthquake,
Dam
Inundation,
Severe
Weather
Hazard Mitigation
Public Education
and Outreach
Communicatio
ns
Department,
All School
Districts within
SCOE
Medium Public Education and Outreach Enhancements
with students and school staff on hazard
mitigation and emergency preparedness
15 Public
Health
Hazards
Pandemic Safety
Plan
District
Superintendent
Offices, All
School
Districts within
SCOE
High Maintain an up-to-date Pandemic Safety Plan
according to CDC and State requirements
16 Public
Health
Hazards
COVID-19 &
General Pandemic
Prevention
Program
District
Superintendent
Offices, All
School
Districts within
SCOE
High Maintain the operation of the COVID-19 &
General Pandemic Prevention Program
17 Public
Health
Hazards
Update Faculty and
Student Health and
Safety Plan and
Training Guidance
Protocols
District
Superintendent
Offices, All
School
Districts within
SCOE
Medium Update Faculty and Student Health and Safety
Plan and Training Guidance Protocols related
to a Public Health Prevention Strategy
(screening, masking, disinfection, ventilation,
automation of equipment, cleaning, contract
tracing, etc.) that align with CDC
recommendations and State regulations
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ID Hazard(s)
Mitigated Project Title Lead Agency and Partners Priority Project Description 18 Public
Health
Hazards
HVAC Upgrades to
Improve School
Ventilation
Operations
and Support
Services
Department,
All School
Districts within
SCOE
Medium Upgrade or enhance HVAC units to improve
school ventilation
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6 PLAN ADOPTION, IMPLEMENTATION, AND MAINTENANCE
6.1 Adoption
DMA Requirements §201.6(c)(3):
[The local hazard mitigation plan shall include] documentation that the plan has been formally approved by the governing body of the jurisdiction requesting approval of the plan (e.g., City Council, County Commissioner, Tribal Council).
The purpose of formally adopting this plan is to secure buy-in from Stanislaus County and the participating jurisdictions, raise awareness of the plan, and formalize the plan’s implementation. The adoption of this plan completes Planning Step 9 of the 10-step planning process: Adopt the Plan. The governing board for each participating jurisdiction has adopted this MJHMP by passing a resolution.
Implementation and maintenance of the plan is critical to the overall success of hazard mitigation planning.
This is Planning Step 10 of the 10-step planning process. This section provides an overview of the overall strategy for plan implementation and maintenance, and outlines the method and schedule for monitoring, updating, and evaluating the plan. The section also discusses incorporating the plan into existing planning mechanisms and how to address continued public involvement.
6.2 Implementation
Once adopted, the plan faces the truest test of its worth: implementation. While this plan contains many worthwhile actions, the participating jurisdictions will need to decide which action(s) to undertake first. Two factors will help with making that decision: the priority assigned the actions in the planning process and funding availability. Low or no-cost actions most easily demonstrate progress toward successful plan implementation.
Implementation will be accomplished by adhering to the schedules identified for each action (see Section 5 for County mitigation actions and the annexes for local participating jurisdiction mitigation actions), and through constant, pervasive, and energetic efforts to network and highlight the multi-objective, win-win benefits of each project to the Stanislaus County community and its stakeholders. These efforts include the routine actions of monitoring agendas, attending meetings, and promoting a safe, sustainable community.
The three main components of implementation are:
• Implement the action plan recommendations of this plan; • Utilize existing rules, regulations, policies, and procedures already in existence; and • Communicate the hazard information collected and analyzed through this planning process so that the community better understands what can happen where, and what they can do themselves to be better prepared. Also, publicize the “success stories” that are achieved through the HMPC’s ongoing efforts.
During implementation of these efforts, it is important to maintain a constant monitoring of funding opportunities that can be leveraged to implement some of the more costly recommended actions. This will include creating and maintaining a bank of ideas on how to meet local match or participation requirements, should grants be pursued. When funding becomes available, the participating jurisdiction’s will be in a position to capitalize on the opportunity. Funding opportunities to be monitored include special pre- and post-disaster funds, special district budgeted funds, state and federal earmarked funds, and other grant programs, including those that can serve or support multi-objective applications.
For this update, the County’s implementation program will emphasis mitigation projects and setting priorities based upon loss reduction consistent with both DMA requirements and the EMAP Standard 4.2 Hazard Mitigation requirements.
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6.2.1 Role of the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) in Implementation and Maintenance
With adoption of this plan, the participating jurisdictions and the County’s Office of Education will be tasked with plan implementation and maintenance. The participating jurisdictions and the County’s Office of Education, led by the Stanislaus County OES agree to:
• Act as a forum for hazard mitigation issues;
• Disseminate hazard mitigation ideas and activities to all participants; • Pursue the implementation of high-priority, low/no-cost recommended actions; • Keep the concept of mitigation in the forefront of community decision making by identifying plan recommendations when other community goals, plans, and activities overlap, influence, or directly affect increased community vulnerability to disasters;
• Maintain a vigilant monitoring of multi-objective cost-share opportunities to help the community implement the plan’s recommended actions for which no current funding exists; • Monitor and assist in implementation and update of this plan; • Report on plan progress and recommended changes to the Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors and the governing boards of the other participating jurisdictions; and • Inform and solicit input from the public.
The primary duty of the participating jurisdictions and the County’s Office of Education is to see the plan successfully carried out and to report to their community governing boards and the public on the status of plan implementation and mitigation opportunities. Other duties include reviewing and promoting mitigation proposals, considering stakeholder concerns about hazard mitigation, passing concerns on to appropriate entities, and posting relevant information on the county website (and others as appropriate).
6.3 Maintenance and Monitoring
DMA Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i):
[The plan maintenance process shall include a] section describing the method and schedule of monitoring, evaluating, and updating the mitigation plan within a five-year cycle.
Plan maintenance implies an ongoing effort to monitor and evaluate plan implementation and to update the plan as required or as progress, roadblocks, or changing circumstances are recognized. This section describes how public participation will be integrated throughout the plan maintenance and implementation process. It also explains how the mitigation strategies outlined in this plan will be incorporated into existing planning mechanisms and programs, such as comprehensive land use planning processes, CIP project planning and building code enforcement and implementation. The plan’s format allows sections to be reviewed and updated when new data become available, resulting in a plan that will remain current and relevant.
6.3.1 Maintenance Schedule
In order to track progress and update the mitigation strategies identified in the action plan, the HMPC will revisit this plan at the following times or occurrences:
• Annually, to assess if mitigation actions/projects have been completed; • Following a significant hazard event;
• Following a disaster declaration; or
• Any other time the HMPC sees it is prudent or necessary.
Annual Reviews: The HMPC will meet annually to assess progress on plan implementation. Stanislaus County’s OES Department will facilitate these reviews and an associated meeting. The timing of the annual meeting is recommended for the first or second quarter of each year to identify potential mitigation grants, some of which have a submittal period in the fourth quarter. A template for the annual meeting and a summary report is provided in Appendix E. Another tool developed during the 2021 – 2022 update process to facilitate regular review and implementation and make the plan more of a “living document” is the MJHMP website, where the updated 2021 MJHMP and HMPs from previous years are available for public access. #1..
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Various links to additional disaster and emergency preparation, hazard mitigation, as well as other related local, state, and federal-level information are also included on the MJHMP website. This website is accessible from the Stanislaus County OES homepage. The County can use the MJHMP to post updates on the plan implementation process, such as grants submitted, grants pending review, and grant awards.
Critical Facility Database Maintenance: Moving forward the County and its municipalities will maintain the critical facility database that was prepared during the 2021 update. The County’s OES Coordinator will work with the County GIS Manager to lead periodic reviews of the database and assess the need for updates.
Five-Year Update: This plan will be updated, approved, and adopted within a five-year cycle as per Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i) of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. Efforts to begin the update should begin no later than June 2025 in order to provide at least 9 to 12 months to facilitate the planning process, update the plan, and provide adequate time for public review. The County will monitor planning grant opportunities from the Cal OES and FEMA for funds to assist with the update. This may include submitting a BRIC grant application. This grant should be submitted in 2024, as there is a three-year performance period to expend the funds, and there is no guarantee that the grant will be awarded when initially submitted. This allows time to resubmit the grant in subsequent years if needed. Updates to this plan will follow the most current FEMA and Cal OES planning guidance. The next plan update should be completed and reapproved by Cal OES and FEMA Region VIII by June 2027.
6.3.2 Maintenance and Evaluation Process
The HMPC will continually observe the incorporation process, evaluation method, updating method, continued public participation, and completion of the action/projects to assure that the HMPC and the plan itself are performing as anticipated. By monitoring these processes, the HMPC will then be able to evaluate them at the time of the plan update, determining if any changes are needed.
The every five-year MJHMP plan update provides an opportunity to determine whether there have been any significant changes in the County that may, in turn, necessitate changes in the types of mitigation actions proposed. New development in identified hazard areas, increased exposure to hazards, increase or decrease in capability to address hazards, and changes to federal or state legislation are examples of factors that may affect the necessary content of the MJHMP.
The plan review provides County officials with an opportunity to evaluate those actions that have been successful and to explore the possibility of documenting potential losses that were avoided due to the implementation of specific mitigation measures. The process for setting new priorities based on loss reduction is also emphasized in this MJHMP update process, as it relates the EMAP Standard 4.2 Hazard Mitigation. The plan review also provides the opportunity to address mitigation actions that may not have been successfully implemented as assigned.
During the five-year plan update process, the following questions will be considered as criteria for assessing the effectiveness and appropriateness of the MJHMP:
• Do the goals address current and expected conditions? • Are the goals and objectives consistent with changes in state and federal policy? • Complete status update on all mitigation projects. What strategies should be revised? • Has the nature or magnitude of risks changed (current and expected conditions)? • Are the current resources appropriate for implementing the MJHMP? • Are there implementation problems, such as technical, political, legal or coordination issues with other agencies?
• Have the outcomes occurred as expected?
• Did the County and participating agencies and other partners participate in the plan implementation process as assigned?
The County of Stanislaus is committed to involving the public in the continual reshaping and updating of the MJHMP, as discussed in Subsection 6.3.4.
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6.3.3 Incorporation into Existing Planning Mechanisms
Another important implementation mechanism that is highly effective and low-cost is the incorporation of the HMP recommendations and their underlying principles into other county and city plans and mechanisms. Where possible, plan participants will use existing plans and/or programs to implement hazard mitigation actions. This plan should also be cross-referenced when related planning mechanisms are updated. As previously stated above, mitigation is most successful when it is incorporated into the dayto-day functions and priorities of government and development. As described in this plan’s capability assessment and jurisdictional annexes, the County and participating jurisdictions already implement policies and programs to reduce losses to life and property from hazards. This plan builds upon the momentum developed through previous and related planning efforts and mitigation programs and recommends implementing actions, where possible, through these other program mechanisms.
These existing mechanisms include (but are not limited to) the following:
• County and local general plans (General Plan Safety Element) • Community service district area plans and master plans • County and local emergency operations plans
• County and local ordinances
• Flood/stormwater management/master plans
• Community wildfire protection plans
• GSPs
• IRWMPs
• Stormwater Resource Plans
• Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs)
• CIPs
• Other plans and policies outlined in the capability assessments in the jurisdictional annexes • Other plans, regulations, and practices with a mitigation focus HMPC members involved in the updates to the planning mechanisms will be responsible for integrating the findings and recommendations of this plan with these other plans, programs, etc., as appropriate. As an action step to ensure integration with other planning mechanisms, the County OES Manager or designee will discuss this topic at the annual meeting of the HMPC described above in Subsection 6.3.1. The HMPC will discuss where there are opportunities to incorporate the plan into other planning mechanisms and who would be responsible for leveraging those opportunities. HMPC members representing local jurisdictions will work with their jurisdictional Planning Committees to integrate their identified mitigation actions into their local plans and programs. Efforts to integrate the HMP into local plans, programs, and policies will be reported on at the annual HMPC plan review meeting, and a record of successful integration efforts will be kept.
Efforts should continuously be made to monitor the progress of mitigation actions implemented through these other planning mechanisms and, where appropriate, their priority actions should be incorporated into updates of this hazard mitigation plan. Examples of a process for incorporation of the MJHMP into specific existing or upcoming planning mechanisms include:
• Each community (County, Ceres, Hughson, Modesto, Newman, Oakdale, Patterson, Riverbank, Turlock, Waterford) should adopt (by reference or incorporation) this MJHMP into the Safety Element of their General Plan(s), as encouraged by AB 2140. Evidence of such adoption (by formal, certified resolution) shall be provided to Cal OES and FEMA to become eligible or maintain eligibility for CDDA funding. Also, specific risk and vulnerability information from the Stanislaus County MJHMP can be incorporated into the General Plan; which, can in turn, inform the development of hazard overlay zones, or other policy changes designed to minimize hazard impacts. Each jurisdiction has a specific mitigation action related to this process outlined in Subsection 5.3. • Reference into the State of California CVFPP. The MJHMP will provide information that can be included in the CVFPP and Mid-San Joaquin River FMP, and other water and flood management plans. The process for updating these regional plans will vary, but the flood data developed for the MJHMP can be used in other plans, as it relates to exposure estimates and overall vulnerability to floods. #1..
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• Stanislaus County Board of Education Comprehensive Safe School Plans. The Office of Education Annex provides valuable information on the vulnerability of the County’s school facilities. This information can be integrated into school safety plans, and incorporated as a way to leverage additional state funding for hazard mitigation.
• Stanislaus County Board of Education Prevention Programs (School Crisis Response Seminars, Bullying Prevention Training).
• Incorporation into the City of Modesto EOP and Strategic Plan. • Referencing the HMP in the California State University, Stanislaus’ EOP.
6.3.4 Continued Public Involvement
Continued public involvement is imperative to the overall success of the plan’s implementation. Efforts will be made to involve the public in the plan maintenance, evaluation, and review process. This includes maintaining a digital version of the plan on the County OES website for public review, or the County’s MJHMP webpage (https://www.stanoes.com/lhmp.shtm) that should continue to function as a repository of the current and past HMPs. In addition, information on who to contact within the OES will be posted with the plan. The Stanislaus County OES will maintain a file of comments received for reference during the next five-year update. Any revisions to the plan that may occur as a result of a disaster will also be made public and posted on the County website.
The next five-year update process also provides an opportunity to solicit participation from new and existing stakeholders and publicize success stories from the plan implementation and seek additional public comment. A public hearing(s) or survey to receive public comment on the plan will be held during the plan update period. When the HMPC reconvenes for the update, they will coordinate with all stakeholders participating in the planning process, including those who joined the HMPC after the initial effort, to update and revise the plan. Public notice will be posted, and public participation will be invited, at a minimum, through available website postings and press releases to the local media outlets as well as email and social media announcements.
Public involvement strategies that were used during the 2021 – 2022 planning process are captured in the Outreach Strategy in Appendix F. The appendix can serve as a reference for continued public involvement over the next several years and lays the foundation for outreach associated with the next formal five-year update. The HMPC should incorporate the following engagement concepts from the Outreach Strategy:
• Collaborate with CBOs and faith-based organizations (i.e., Stockton Environmental Justice Program of Catholic Charities of Stockton).
• Create stories and mitigation success announcements to use for publishing at media outlets. • Distribute emails and postcards and newsletters to the public about hazard mitigation • Circulate information on hazard mitigation through the K-12 schools through collaboration with the Office of Education Local Planning Team.
• Participate in existing community events to share information about hazard mitigation (e.g., community farmer’s markets, library events, senior centers).
• Continue to use the County’s MJHMP Webpage as a distribution point or repository for HMP information.
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7 PLAN ADOPTION
DMA Requirement §201.6(c)(5):
[The plan shall include...] Documentation that the plan has been formally adopted by the governing body of the jurisdiction requesting approval of the plan (e.g., City Council, County commissioner, Tribal Council).
7.1 Element E.1 Formal Plan Adoption Documentation
Adoption by the local governing body demonstrates the community’s commitment to implementing the mitigation strategy and authorizes responsible agencies to execute their actions. The final plan is not approved until Stanislaus County and each participating jurisdiction adopts the plan and FEMA receives documentation of formal adoption by the governing body of each jurisdiction requesting approval. This plan is for Stanislaus County, the unincorporated County, and its incorporated cities of Ceres, Hughson, Modesto, Newman, Oakdale, Patterson, Riverbank, Turlock, Water, as well as the County’s Office of Education.
Stanislaus County and the nine participating cities, together with the County’s Office of Education plan to submit this plan to the Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors (BOS), County Office of Education, and their respective city councils upon successful completion of State and federal review and following the issuance of an Approved Pending Adoption (APA) designation from FEMA. This provides an efficient approval process if FEMA determines the MJHMP requires revisions because the County and each participating city as well as the Office of Education can make these revisions prior to initiating the local plan adoption process.
Once FEMA issues APA notification, adoption by each participating jurisdiction must take place within one year for each jurisdiction to become or remain eligible for FEMA HMA program funding. Given this is a multi-jurisdictional planning process, Stanislaus County will coordinate the adoption of all nine jurisdictions and the County’s Office of Education adoption process as soon as the plan receives APA status. Because each City/Board governing bodies have different meeting schedules, Stanislaus County will also coordinate with each participating jurisdiction/agency regarding the timing of their adoptions to submit adoption documentation to Cal OES and FEMA at the same time.
Once the County records and submits the adoption documentation to Cal OES and FEMA, FEMA will issue an official approval letter stating which jurisdictions/agency have adopted and are approved and eligible for FEMA HMA program funding. The approval letter will include the expiration date five years from the date of the letter and attached to the approval letter will be a final FEMA Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool that provides feedback on the strengths of the plan, recommendations for plan improvements during future plan updates, and suggestions for implementing the mitigation strategy.
7.2 General Plan Safety Element Integration
The MJHMP was prepared consistent with the Stanislaus County General Plan Safety Element. The planning mechanisms cover common overlapping natural hazard issues and mutually-reinforcing policies and implementation programs. California Government Code Section 65302.10, (AB 2140) encourages California counties and cities to adopt their current, FEMA-approved LHMPs into the Safety Element of their General Plan. This adoption by reference or incorporation of the MJHMP into the Safety Element of the General Plan follows plan approval and makes Stanislaus County and each participating jurisdiction eligible to be considered for part or all of its local-share costs on eligible public assistance funding to be provided by the State under the CDAA. As such, AB 2140 compliance provides additional funding after a disaster occurs and this is an optional state incentive to help counties and cities become more resilient to natural hazards. Because compliance with AB 2140 expires when the MJHMP expires, the County must re-adopt the plan into the Safety Element during update cycles to ensure continued compliance and funding eligibility. Additionally, each participating jurisdiction must adopt their annex into their own General Plan Safety Element, as the annex jurisdictions are not covered under the County’s General Plan Safety Element adoption.
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8 REFERENCES
Abc 10. 2019. Stanislaus County: What Every Person Should Know About Flood Risk. Accessed December 3, 2021. https://www.abc10.com/article/news/a/103-6cf48c36-aa4a-42b2-8f73-1cd5e42621e8 Adirondack Council. 2021. What You Need To Know About Aquatic Invasive Species. Accessed December 1, 2021. https://www.adirondackcouncil.org/page/blog-139/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-aquaticinvasive-species--invasive-species-blog-series-1385.html Arcuni, Peter, Rivers in the Sky: What You Need to Know About Atmospheric River Storms. KQED, Jan. 2019
California Accidental Release Prevention Program. California Climate Action Team (CAT) Heat Adaptation Workgroup, “Preparing California for Extreme Heat,” October 2013 California Climate Adaptation Strategy 2018
California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, U.S.
Census Bureau
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection website California Department of Public Health website
California Department of Water Resources, 2006, “Drought Preparedness” California Department of Water Resources, Division of Safety of Dams, Jurisdictional Dams Database California Department of Water Resources, Water Conditions and Drought Report to Governor, 2009 California Department of Water Resources. www.water.ca.gov/ California Emergency Management Agency, Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Handbook California Emergency Management Agency, Tools for Preparing your LHMP, 2012 California Energy Commission (Cal-Adapt). 2021. Cal-Adapt. Climate Tools. Extreme Heat Days & Warm Nights. Accessed on September 1, 2021. Available at: https://cal-adapt.org/tools/extreme-heat California Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Toxic Substance Control California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA). 2013. Preparing California for Extreme Heat:
Guidance and Recommendations. Developed by the Heat Adaptation Work Group California Climate Action Team (CAT). California Environmental Protection Agency. October 2013. Accessed January 13, 2022.
Available at:
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/climate_action_team/reports/Preparing_California_for_Extreme_Heat.p df
California Fire Plan, 2010
California Geological Survey
California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Contingency Plan for Excessive Heat Emergencies. 2014
California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. FY 2019-2020 Public Safety Power Shutoff Legislative Report
California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research. The Integrated Climate Adaption and Resiliency Program. Impact Report and 2020 Program Recommendations California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, 2018 California Public Utilities Commission
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California State Parks website
Center for Disease Control, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Social Vulnerability Index Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Atmospheric Rivers scale. http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/CW3EReleases-New-Scale-to-Characterize-Strength-and-Impacts-of-Atmospheric-Rivers/ City of Ceres 2020 Urban Water Management Plan. 2021
City of Ceres 2035 General Plan. 2018
City of Ceres Water Master Plan. 2011
City of Hughson General Plan. 2005
City of Modesto General Plan. 2019
City of Newman 2020 Urban Water Management Plan. 2020
City of Newman 2030 General Plan Housing Element. 2016
City of Newman General Plan. 2007
City of Oakdale General Plan. 2013
City of Oakdale Water Master Plan, 2015
City of Patterson General Plan. 2010
City of Riverbank 2020 Urban Water Management Plan.
City of Riverbank General Plan. 2009
City of Turlock General Plan. 2012
City of Waterford 2016 Water Master Plan.
City of Waterford General Plan. 2007
Department of Water Resources (DWR). 2022. Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update. Available at:
https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Planningand-Studies/Central-Valley-Flood-Protection-Plan/Files/CVFPPUpdates/2022/2022updateCVFPP22_layout_v9_plus_Append_BC.pdf East Stanislaus Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWM) (2018) Environmental Protection Agency, National Response Center Federal Emergency Management Agency, Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide, 2011 FEMA Community Information System
FEMA, CRS Coordinators Manual
Flood Emergency Information Exchange
Flood Insurance Study, Stanislaus County – FEMA, August 24, 2021 Gerike, Lydia. 2021. "Update: Here's How Residents Of Stanislaus, San Joaquin Counties Described Earthquake". The Modesto Bee. https://www.modbee.com/news/local/article252665353.html.
Hubbard SWCD. 2021. Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species. Accessed December 1, 2021. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5ab395b0f8c946208797fbde0f63593f Invasive Species Centre. n.d. Climate Change – Invasive Species Centre. Accessed December 1, 2021. https://www.invasivespeciescentre.ca/invasive-species/what-is-at-risk/climate-change/ Izaak Walton League of America. n.d. Preventing Invasive Species. Accessed December 1, 2021. https://www.iwla.org/outdoor-recreation/invasives
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KMPH. 2020. Deadly Highway Crash in Dense Fog in Turlock. Accessed December 7, 2021. https://kmph.com/news/local/deadly-highway-crash-in-dense-fog-in-turlock.) Modesto Bee
Modesto Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (2022) Multi-Hazard Mitigation Planning Guidance under the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Hydrology Resource Center https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/content/atmospheric-rivers-and-lake-oroville-dam-stress National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI)
National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, U.S Drought Monitor National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Drought Impact Reporter National Flood Insurance Program, Community Status Book, 2020 National Inventory of Dams
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What is the Pineapple Express? National Ocean Service website, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/pineapple-express.html National Pipeline Mapping System National Register of Historic Places National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Wind Prospector National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI)National Weather Service website
Privacy Rights Clearinghouse Database
Rahel, Frank J., And Julian D. Olden. 2008. “Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species”. Conservation Biology 22, no. 3 (2008): 521–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523- 1739.2008.00950.x
Rheinheimer, D. E., and J. H. Viers. 2014. "Combined Effects of Reservoir Operations and Climate Warming on the Flow Regime of Hydropower Bypass Reaches of California's Sierra Nevada". River Research And Applications 31 (3): 269-279. doi:10.1002/rra.2749 Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Energy Assistance Act, Section 322 SGCRP, 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. Crimmins, A., J. Balbus, J.L. Gamble, C.B. Beard, J.E. Bell, D. Dodgen, R.J. Eisen, N. Fann, M.D. Hawkins, S.C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, D.M. Mills, S. Saha, M.C. Sarofim, J. Trtanj, and L. Ziska, Eds.
U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 312 pp.
Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC) Stanislaus County 2017 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
Stanislaus County 2015 General Plan
Stanislaus County Agricultural Commissioner’s Agricultural Report, 2020 Stanislaus County Assessor’s Office
Stanislaus County Code of Ordinances
Stanislaus County Emergency Operations Plan (2021)
Stanislaus County Extreme Heat Contingency Plan (2018)
Stanislaus County Flood Management Ordinance
State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan (2018)
State of California Office of Historic Preservation
The Common Core of Data (CCD) – National Center for Education Statistics #1..
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Topping, Ken. State Guidance for Hazard Mitigation Planning. California Polytechnic State University. State Hazard Mitigation Team Meeting. May 10, 2015
Turlock Irrigation District. 2017. Maximum Flow Releases from New Don Pedro Reservoir in 2017.
Turlock Journal. 2021. “Stanislaus County sees sharp increase in opioid deaths”, Accessed December 5, 2021. https://www.turlockjournal.com/news/local/stanislaus-county-sees-sharp-increase-opioid-deaths/ U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Servce, Census of Agriculture 2017 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Risk Management Agency Crop Indemnity Reports 2007-2020 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Sectary of Agriculture, Disaster Designations 2012-2020 U.S. Fish and Wildfire Service, Aquatic Invasive Species U.S. Fish and Wildfire Service, San Juaquin National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Environmental Conservation Online System United States Geological Survey
University of California, Riverside, Center for Invasive Species Research Western Regional Climate Center. https://wrcc.dri.edu/
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 1 1 CITY OF MODESTO
1.1 Purpose
This Annex summarizes the hazard mitigation elements specific to the City of Modesto. This Annex supplements the Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP); therefore the Annex is not a stand-alone plan but intended to supplement the hazard information provided in the Base Plan document. All other sections of the Stanislaus County MJHMP, or Base Plan, including the sections on the planning process, countywide risk assessment, and procedural requirements related to plan implementation and maintenance apply to the City of Modesto. This Annex provides additional information specific to the City of Modesto, including details on the City’s profile, planning process, risk assessment, and mitigation strategy for the community.
1.2 Community Profile
1.2.1 Mitigation Planning History and 2021-2022 Process This Annex was created during the development of the 2021 Stanislaus County MJHMP update. The City of Modesto did not participate in Stanislaus County’s 2017 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) process.
However, the City of Modesto did participate in a 2010-2011 MJHMP process with the County. This 2010 MJHMP was approved by Stanislaus County on May 4, 2011, but the 2010 City of Modesto LHMP Annex remained “approvable pending adoption” according to a letter from FEMA Region IX dated July 31, 2012.
Therefore, the City did not include or report progress on any of the mitigation actions from a previous version of the MJHMP (a requirement only for plan updates following the release of FEMA’s October 1, 2011 Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide). During the development of the 2022 Stanislaus County MJHMP, this Annex was prepared to effectively represent a new and comprehensive plan for Modesto based on current development, demographics, and mitigation capabilities that addresses the City’s current hazards and vulnerabilities
During the current update process, the City of Modesto followed the planning process detailed in Chapter 3 of the Base Plan. This planning process consisted of participation in the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) and the formation of a smaller internal planning team referred to as the City’s Local Planning Committee (LPT). The LPT was organized to support the broader planning process, coordinate with the City departmental staff, and develop customized mitigation actions and projects specific to the City of Modesto. The City’s LPT is also responsible for the update, implementation, and maintenance of the plan. LPT members are listed in Appendix A.
1.2.2 Geography and Climate
The City of Modesto is the county seat and largest city in Stanislaus County. The City of Modesto is located 68 miles south of Sacramento and 90 miles north of Fresno. The City is also 40 miles north of the City of Merced, 92 miles east of the City of San Francisco, 66 miles west of Yosemite National Park, and 24 miles south of the City Stockton. The City of Modesto is one of the most populated cities in California, and the second largest city in northern San Joaquin Valley. Downtown Modesto encompasses about one square mile in the heart of the City and is surrounded by the natural greenbelts of the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers, rich farmland and large agricultural industry, and the smaller cities of Ceres and Riverbank. The City of Modesto is also home to E & J Gallo Family Winery, the largest family-owned winery in the United States.
The City receives an average annual precipitation of 12.21 inches and receives most of this precipitation from November through March (WRCC 2022). The City experiences its average monthly highest temperature in July (94.3 °F), and its monthly lowest temperature in January (53.8 °F). Similar to the rest of Stanislaus County, the City of Modesto has a mild Mediterranean climate.
Modesto is served by one of the busiest rail corridors in the country. The Amtrak San Joaquin makes eight daily stops on the route between Oakland and Bakersfield, and four stops daily on the route between Sacramento and Bakersfield, at a station on the east edge of the City. Figure 1-1 below shows #1..
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Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 2 the city limits and the sphere of influence boundary (SOI) for the City of Modesto. The city limits, or the area where the City has authority to make land use decisions, is the City’s planning area and consists of 23,200 acres, or 33.79 square miles.
Figure 1-1 City of Modesto
1.2.3 History
Modesto was founded as a village in October 1870, when the Central Pacific Railroad purchased approximately one square mile of land and began selling lots. Before the Central Pacific Railroad gave shape to the village, Americans had already settled in the area and begun farming. Several villages developed to provide services to the community, among them cemeteries ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022).
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 3 In the middle of the 20th Century, Modesto’s irrigated agricultural industry was well established and many related businesses had developed to support it. The City of Modesto was prosperous and its citizens engaged in various cultural pursuits. The City received national attention during this period for its high–art architecture, which was even featured in books published by the New York Museum of Modern Art ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022).
In 1882, Hiram Modesto arrived in this area and purchased 1,000 acres for a grain ranch and gradually came to own nearly 5,000 acres. In the early 1900s, the San Joaquin Railroad purchased land from Mr.
Modesto for their tracks and developed a stop, which became known as the Modesto Stop.
Beginning in the 1960s, the 2,000-acre Beard Industrial District—owned by the Beard family, which also owns and operates Modesto & Empire Traction railroad—east of downtown along the north side of the Tuolumne River became the area’s largest industrial area ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022).
Modesto & Empire Traction’s connections to both the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railroad and Union Pacific Railroad (formerly the Southern Pacific Railroad) positioned Beard properties to take advantage of both interregional railroads.
Economic activity moved away from the City’s downtown following World War II and by the 1970s, efforts were made to revitalize downtown. Redevelopment efforts were formalized in the middle 1980s with the establishment of Modesto’s Redevelopment Agency. By 1980, Modesto had grown to 107,000 residents.
The rapid pace of growth concerned Modestans, who elected Peggy Mensinger mayor in 1978 on a slowgrowth platform ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022). Mensinger worked to refocus infill development in the downtown ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022). Today, most of the land in the City is designated for housing with pockets for public uses, city facilities, parks, schools and the airport.
Commercial, office, and industrial uses are concentrated along the major transportation corridors.
1.2.4 Economy
Surrounded by one of the greatest agricultural production areas in the world, Modesto is a national center for food and beverage production. The City is developing a strong presence in advanced manufacturing including off-site home and commercial construction. The City is also conveniently located near the center of the North San Joaquin Valley with easy access to major markets.
The City of Modesto is gradually growing as a City with approximately 212,616 residents, 73,906 homes, and 89,562 jobs (California Department of Finance 2019). The City’s warm Mediterranean climate and affordable real estate support a diverse population with a strong sense of community. Table 1-1 below lists Modesto’s top employers.
Table 1-1 City of Modesto Top Employers
Employers
Carlo Rossi Winery
City of Modesto
Copperridge Winery
Datapath
Del Monte Foods
Doctors Medical Center
Ecco Domani Winery
Entekra, LLC
E&J Gallo Winery Headquarters
Foster Farms Dairy
Frito-Lay
Gallo Vineyards
Kaiser Permanente
MacDonald Group
Memorial Medical Center
Modesto Bee – Bee Media Services
Modesto City Schools
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 4 Employers
Modesto Junior College
Novo Technologies
Pacific Southwest Container
Peter Vella Winery
Rizo-Lopez Foods
SaveMart Headquarters
Silgan Containers
Stanislaus County
Stanislaus Food Processing
Storer Coachways
Sutter Gould Medical Center
Zabaco Winery
Source: https://www.modestogov.com/1240/Sampling-of-Top-Employers Estimates of select economic characteristics for the City of Modesto are shown in Table 1-2.
Table 1-2 City of Modesto Economic Characteristics, 2015-2019 Characteristic City of Modesto
Families below Poverty Level (%) 11.1%
All People below Poverty Level (%) 15.2%
Median Family Income $83,504
Median Household Income $59,287
Per Capita Income $27,358
Population in Labor Force 59.9%
Population Employed* 54.5%
Unemployment Rate** 8.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, www.census.gov/
*Excludes armed forces. **Does not reflect unemployment numbers due to COVID-19 Pandemic The most common industries within a five-mile radius of Modesto are educational services and health care and social assistance (a combined average of 21.5 percent of workers). Retail trade and manufacturing are other two major industries, which resonates with the information regarding manufacturing being one of Stanislaus County’s major industries. The tables below show the labor force breakdown by occupations and industry based on estimates from the 2015-2019 five-year American Community Survey (ACS).
Table 1-3 City of Modesto Employment by Industry, 2015-2019 Occupation # Employed % Employed
Educational services, and health care and social assistance 19,478 21.5% Retail trade 11,652 12.9%
Manufacturing 9,707 10.7%
Professional, scientific, and management, and
administrative and waste management services
9,225 10.2%
Construction 8,572 9.5%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation
and food services
8,305 9.2%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 6,049 6.7% Other services, except public administration 5,485 6.1% Wholesale trade 2,908 3.2%
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Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 5 Occupation # Employed % Employed
Public administration 2,888 3.2%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 2,744 3.0% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and
leasing
2,506 2.8%
Information 1,043 1.2%
Total 90,562 100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, www.census.gov/
*Excludes armed forces
Table 1-4 City of Modesto Employment by Occupation, 2015-2019 Occupation # Employed % Employed
Management, business, science, and arts occupations 23908 26.40% Service occupations 16935 18.70%
Sales and office occupations 22641 25.00%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance
occupations
11139 12.30%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 16029 17.70% Total 90,562 100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, www.census.gov/
*Excludes armed forces
1.2.5 Population
In May 2021, the California DOF released population data for the state demographic report. According to the report the City of Modesto has a population of 219,294 persons as of January 1, 2021 and gained 854 residents from the previous year. Select demographic and social characteristics for the City of Modesto from the 2015-2019 ACS and the California DOF, are shown in Table 1-5.
Table 1-5 City of Modesto Demographic and Social Characteristics, 2015-2019 Characteristic City of Modesto
Gender/Age
Male 49.4%
Female 50.6%
Median age (years) 35.6
Under 5 years 7.1%
Under 18 years 25.5%
65 years and over 14.3%
Race/Ethnicity
White 44.2%
Asian 6.9%
Black or African American 4.1%
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.5%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 40.2%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander
1.0%
Some other race 0.1%
Two or more races 3.0%
Education*
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 6 Characteristic City of Modesto
% High school graduate or higher 82.6%
% with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 18.7%
Social Vulnerability
% with Disability 14.8%
% Language other than English spoken at
home 36.8%
% Speak English less than "Very Well" 13.7%
% of households with a computer 95.5%
% of households with an Internet
subscription 91.6%
% of households with no vehicle available 6.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, www.census.gov/
* Population 25 years and over
The following table summarizes information from the ACS 5-year estimates (2015-2019) related to housing occupancy in the City of Modesto. Most of the City residents own the home they live in.
Table 1-6 City of Modesto Housing Occupancy and Units, 2015-2019 Housing Characteristic Estimate Percentage
Housing Occupancy
Total Housing Units 75,221 100%
Units Occupied 72,332 96.2%
Vacant 2,889 3.8%
Housing Units
1-unit detached 53,474 71.1%
1-unit attached 3,077 4.1%
2 units 2,255 3.0%
3 or 4 units 4,082 5.4%
5-9 units 2,990 4.0%
10-19 units 1,786 2.4%
20 or more units 5,575 7.4%
Mobile Home 1,928 2.6%
Boat, RV, van etc. 54 0.1%
Housing Tenure
Owner Occupied 1,652 66.5%
Renter Occupied 834 33.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance, 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS), 5-year estimates, www.census.gov/
1.2.6 Disadvantaged Communities
The Community Development policies in the City’s General Plan discuss nine individual Disadvantaged Unincorporated Communities (DUCs) within the City. The General Plan describes the general infrastructure needs, including water, wastewater, storm drainage and structural fire protection, of each DUC and discusses potential funding opportunities for these communities. The City also coordinates with the County of Stanislaus regarding long-term planning for the provision of infrastructure services for these DUCs.
The City is made up numerous census tracts, 11 of which are defined as low income communities. Based on information from the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) a large percentage of people residing with these census tracts are housing burdened low income households. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 7 Housing-burdened low-income households are households that are both low income and highly burdened by housing costs. California has very high housing costs relative to the rest of the country, which can make it hard for households to afford housing ("CalEnviroScreen 4.0" 2021). Households with lower incomes may spend a larger proportion of their income on housing and may suffer from housing-inducted poverty ("CalEnviroScreen 4.0" 2021).
The OEHHA CalEnviroScreen tool applies a formula to generate a combined ranking score that considers 21 indicators for each Census tract that cover pollution indicators, such as diesel emissions and concentrations of toxic clean-up sites and population indicators, such as poverty and unemployment rates. The Census tracts with CalEnviroScreen rankings between 75 and 100 percent (i.e., a combined score in the top 25 percent of all Census tracts in the State) are considered to be disadvantaged communities (DACs). The City of Modesto can use this information to conduct targeted outreach and engage community members to consider what other hazards and mitigation strategies or programs should be considered to meet community needs. The City can also engage these communities to proactively prioritize hazard mitigation projects that benefit DACs.
1.2.7 Development Trends
The City’s Community Growth Strategy and Economic Development chapter of the City’s General Plan establishes a growth strategy based on a Growth Strategy Diagram that divides the City into three geographic areas: the Downtown Area, the Baseline Developed Area (BDA), and the Planned Urbanizing Area (PUA). Together, these three defined planning areas shape the land uses and community character in the City and surrounding areas. Figure 1-2 below shows the locations of the Downtown Area, BDA and PUA.
The approximately 710-acre Downtown area is the historic heart of the City and is a focal point of the City’s urban area. The zoning standards and regulations that apply to the Downtown shape the development in this high-priority area with a mix of residential, commercial, office, and institutional land uses.
The BDA, comprising approximately 22,460 acres excluding the Downtown area, is generally defined as the developed area of the City. However, certain developed areas within the City limits are not part of the BDA. Also included within the BDA are vacant lands outside the City limits that have a clearly defined future, such as those within the Beard Tract industrial area.
Future development within the approximately 19,450-acre PUA is proposed on land that is vacant or currently under agricultural use, and minimally, if at all, served with urban infrastructure, including roads.
However, the PUA is not all for future development and there are significant portions of PUA within the city limits, as shown in Figure 1-2, and much of which has already been developed. The majority of the PUA outside of the City limits, is expected to absorb future and comprehensively planned urban development by implementing the land uses projected by the City General Plan’s Land Use Diagram. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 8 Figure 1-2 Proposed Growth Strategy Diagram, Modesto General Plan Source: City of Modesto, General Plan
The Community Growth Strategy and Economic Development Chapter also establishes priority areas for new development and identifies financing for capital projects consistent with applicable City policies and standard operating procedures. For example, Policy II.B.1 supports new development with infrastructure developed in accordance with the established Capital Improvement Program (CIP) priority areas of Downtown, Kiernan Business Park, the Tivoli Specific Plan area and the South Modesto Industrial Park.
The development policies in this chapter of the General Plan contain the “instructions” for building the physical components of the City in a manner consistent with the General Plan. It contains land use policies to guide the physical development of Modesto, within the Downtown Area, BDA, and PUA. This chapter also provides the Land Use Diagram and Land Use Designations for the Modesto Urban Area General Plan. Figure 1-3 illustrates the General Plan land use diagram. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 9 Figure 1-3 Modesto General Plan Land Use Diagram
Source: Modesto General Plan
Key land use goals and policies include maintaining and improving the integrity of the existing developed City, and promoting complete, sustainable, compatible and high-quality development. The City also promotes complete, cohesive, pedestrian-friendly and family-oriented neighborhoods across the entire City. It is important that development along major transportation corridors should be scaled appropriately to match the context and transition to existing nearby neighborhoods. Moreover, employment centers should improve the City’s economy by decreasing the local unemployment rate and improving the local economy. As mentioned previously, the City’s future development will occur on PUA lands that are predominantly vacant or currently underused agricultural land, as shown in Figure 1-2.
The City’s LPT provided input regarding the specific development trends within the City. Modesto is seeing development of single and multi-family housing (as well as some institutional housing), and commercial and industrial land uses. Growth is being seen in the northern areas of the City (KBPE, Tivoli SP, Woodglen SP), vacant lands within Village 1 SP to the east, and in South Modesto (south of the Tuolumne River). Infill properties within the BDA have also seen development of commercial and higherdensity housing land uses.
Moreover, based on the input received from the City’s LPT, the City of Modesto carried out several annexations in the last five years. The City acquired a parcel at the intersection of Lodi Avenue and Whitmore Avenue, which used to be part of the unincorporated Stanislaus County and is located to the south of the City. The City also plans to develop a parcel between Pelandale Avenue and W Union Avenue, which is to the northwest of the City. Another annexation is a 12.86-acre parcel at the intersection of Grecian Avenue and Mchenry Avenue, which is located to the north of the City. This specific annexation is also referred to as the Mchenry-Coralwood Reorganization. Furthermore, the City achieved the annexation of a parcel that is between W Hatch Road and W Whitmore Avenue, while intersecting with Carpenter Road. This parcel abuts the Fairview Village Specific Plan area from the west and is to the South of the City’s General Plan Amendment area. #1..
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Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 10
1.2.8 Future Development
The areas located in the SOI shown in Figure 1-1 are areas each City plans to grow into and are potentially slated for future development. Understanding the potential hazard exposure in the area can help to mitigate the impacts of events before development occurs in those areas.
The City of Modesto manages future development through two key growth measures. In 1979 and 1997, voters in the City adopted Measures A and M, respectively, to ensure that the public can share their opinions on potential growth. The City now reviews local growth trends to ensure these boundaries provide an adequate inventory of vacant land and infrastructure to accommodate future growth, according to inputs received from the LPT. If the City determines that additional land is needed, the City Council can schedule a public vote to approve extending infrastructure to land outside the City’s boundaries to serve future development.
Additionally, the City regularly updates its building codes to meet minimum standards in the California Building Code (CBC) last updated in 2019. Compliance with the 2019 CBC ensures construction standards are met and hazards risks related to earthquake, landslides, flood, severe weather, and wildfire are minimized. The City also complies with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and all development must meet minimum flood protection standards set forth by FEMA. Participation in the 2021- 2022 MJHMP update planning process also ensures the City of Modesto continually updates hazard data and takes this information into account when reviewing development applications. This process will help the City make better decisions on where, when, and how future development occurs.
During this plan update process, a parcel analysis was conducted using the SOI and overlaid with available hazard risk layers to determine where future development may be at risk of natural hazard events. The results of the analysis have been integrated into the applicable hazard sections: dam incidents and flood. Table 1-7 is the summary of the SOI total exposure for the City of Modesto.
Table 1-7 Sphere of Influence Total Exposure Summary
Property Type
Improved
Parcel
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content Value Total Value
Commercial 305 $206,530,420 $206,530,420 $413,060,840
Industrial 436 $885,829,209
$1,328,743,814 $2,214,573,023
Non-Assessable 5 $2,579,768 $2,579,768 $5,159,536
Residential 5,271 $431,731,430 $215,865,715 $647,597,145 Residential-Income 214 $24,894,963 $12,447,482 $37,342,445 Rural, Farm,
Agricultural
254 $41,414,715 $41,414,715 $82,829,430
Unclassified 136 $82,833,588 $82,833,588 $165,667,176
Vacant Commercial 55 $1,459,536 $1,459,536 $2,919,072
Vacant Residential 16 $337,345 $168,673 $506,018
Total 6,692 $1,677,610,974 $1,892,043,710 $3,569,654,684 Source: Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood analysis
2 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND SUMMARY
The City of Modesto LPT identified the hazards that affect the City and summarized their frequency of occurrence, spatial extent, potential magnitude, and significance specific to their community (see Table 2-1). There are no hazards that are unique to Modesto, although the flood risk in the City is greater and distinct from the flooding risk in the County’s planning area. The purpose of this section is to profile the City of Modesto hazards and assess the City’s specific vulnerabilities.
The hazards profiled in the County MJHMP Base Plan discuss the overall impacts to the County’s planning area. This information is summarized in the hazard description, geographic extent, #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 11 magnitude/severity, previous occurrences, and probability of future occurrences sections. The information in the City of Modesto’s risk assessment summarizes only those hazards that vary from the County’s planning area. The hazard profile information is organized in a similar format here as a way to identify priority hazards for mitigation purposes.
Table 2-1 summarizes the hazards profiled in the County’s planning area and risk assessment to provide a way for the LPT to evaluate which hazards are addressed in their General Plan Safety Element and which hazards are relevant and priority hazards for the City. The City’s General Plan Community Facilities and Services Chapter and Environmental Resources, Open Space and Conservation Chapter (Elements) address safety issues including water supply, seismic and geologic hazards, public safety, flooding hazards, fire hazards, and hazardous materials. The Modesto 2050 General Plan covers flooding, extreme temperature (extreme heat), drought, and severe weather hazards in the hazards and safety briefing book. Among these hazards in the General Plan, dam incidents and flooding hazards are further addressed in this Annex, while landslide and wildfire hazards are further addressed in the Base Plan.
Climate change considerations are also addressed in the Base Plan.
Table 2-1 City of Modesto —Hazard Significance Summary
Hazard Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/S
everity
(Extent)
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Agriculture Pest
and Disease
Extensive Likely Negligible Low No
Aquatic Invasive
Species
Limited Likely Negligible Low No
Cyber Attack Significant Likely NA Medium No
Dam Incidents Extensive Unlikely Catastrophic High Yes
Drought Extensive Likely Negligible Low No
Earthquake Extensive Occasional Critical Medium No
Extreme
Temperatures:
Freeze and
Extreme Heat
Significant Highly Likely Critical High No
Flood Significant Likely Limited Medium Yes
Landslide,
Mud/Debris Flow,
Rockfall
Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
Pandemic/Epidemic Extensive Occasional Critical High No Severe Weather:
Dense Fog
Extensive Likely Critical Medium No
Severe Weather:
Hail, Heavy Rain,
Thunderstorms,
Lightning
Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No
Severe Weather:
High Wind/Tornado
Extensive Highly Likely Critical High No
Wildfire Limited Occasional Negligible Low No
Geographic Area
Limited: Less than 10% of planning area
Significant: 10-50% of planning area
Extensive: 50-100% of planning area
Probability of Future Occurrences
Highly Likely: Near 100% chance of occurrence
in next year or happens every year.
Likely: Between 10 and 100% chance of
occurrence in next year or has a recurrence
interval of 10 years or less.
Magnitude/Severity (Extent)
Catastrophic—More than 50 percent of property severely
damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than 30 days; and/or multiple deaths
Critical—25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability
Limited—10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 12 Hazard Geographic
Area
Probability of
Future
Occurrence
Magnitude/S
everity
(Extent)
Overall
Significance
Priority
Hazard?
Occasional: Between 1 and 10% chance of
occurrence in the next year or has a recurrence
interval of 11 to 100 years.
Unlikely: Less than 1% chance of occurrence in
next 100 years or has a recurrence interval of
greater than every 100 years.
Negligible—Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid
Significance
Low: minimal potential impact
Medium: moderate potential impact
High: widespread potential impact
2.1 Vulnerability Assessment
The intent of this section is to assess Modesto’s vulnerability that is separate from that of the planning area as a whole, which has already been assessed in Section 4 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in the Base Plan. For dam incidents and flood hazards, this vulnerability assessment analyzes the population, property, and other assets at risk to hazards ranked of medium or high significance that may vary from other parts of the planning area. For the other hazard profiles, the City described the specific vulnerabilities in the community by developing problem statements that qualitatively summarize areas of concern associated with the hazards that vary from other parts of the County planning area. These specific vulnerabilities are referred to as “problem statements” in the risk assessment. The problem statements are based on the risk assessment mapping and modeling and where spatial data and maps are not available, they are based on specific input from the City LPT. With this information mitigation actions were then developed to address these specific vulnerabilities; this process provides the connection between the problem statement and the mitigation action.
The information to support the hazard identification and risk assessment was based on a combination of the previous LHMP for the City and County and jurisdiction-specific information collected during the 2021 update. A Data Collection Guide and associated worksheets were distributed to each participating municipality or special district to complete during the update process in 2021. Information collected was analyzed and summarized in order to identify and rank all the hazards that could impact anywhere within the County, as well as to rank the hazards and identify the related vulnerabilities unique to each jurisdiction.
Each participating jurisdiction was in support of the main hazard summary identified in the Base Plan (see Table 4-2). However, the hazard summary rankings for each jurisdictional Annex may vary due to specific hazard risks and vulnerabilities unique to that jurisdiction. The information in this Annex helps differentiate the jurisdiction’s risk and vulnerabilities from that of the overall County.
Note: The hazard “Significance” reflects the overall ranking for each hazard and is based on the City of Modesto’s LPT input from the Data Collection Guide and the risk assessment developed during the planning process (see Section 4 of the Base Plan), and the set of problem statements developed by the City LPT. The hazard significance summaries in Table 2-1 above reflect the hazards that could potentially affect City. The discussion of vulnerability for each of the following hazards is located in Section 2.3 Estimating Potential Losses, which includes an overview of the local issues and areas of concern associated with the hazard, a problem statement for the priority hazard, and a quantitative risk assessment, where spatial data is available. Based on this analysis, the priority hazards for the City of Modesto for mitigation are identified below.
● Dam Incidents
● Flood
Cyber Attack, Earthquake, Pandemic/Epidemic and Severe Weather hazards are not addressed in this vulnerability assessment as the exposure is similar to the overall County exposure, and the potential for losses are difficult to quantify specific to the City of Modesto. Additionally, hazards assigned a significance rating of Low and which do not differ significantly from the County ranking (e.g., Low vs.
High) are not addressed further and are not assessed individually for specific vulnerabilities in this Annex.
In the City of Modesto, those hazards include: Agriculture Pests and Disease, Aquatic Invasive Species, Drought, Landslide (Mud/Debris Flow, Rockfall), and Wildfire. For example, both landslide and wildfire #1..
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Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 13 hazards were assessed for the City and based on the analysis and mapping neither hazard resulted in significant vulnerabilities or impacts. Extreme Temperatures and drought hazards are profiled only for planning and awareness purposes.
2.2 Assets
This section considers Modesto’s assets at risk, including values at risk, critical facilities and infrastructure, historic assets, economic assets and growth and development trends.
2.2.1 Property Exposure
The following data on property exposure is derived from the Stanislaus County 2021 Parcel and Assessor data. This data should only be used as a guideline for overall values in the City as the information has some limitations. It is also important to note that in the event of a disaster, it is generally the value of the infrastructure or improvements to the land that is of concern or at risk. Generally, the land itself is not a loss and is not included in the values below. Table 2-2 shows the exposure of properties (e.g., the values at risk) broken down by property type for the City of Modesto.
Table 2-2 City of Modesto Property Exposure by Type
Property Type Improved
Parcel Count Improved Value Estimated Content Value Total Value Commercial 2,071 $3,304,473,791 $3,304,473,791 $6,608,947,582 Industrial 318 $396,367,700 $594,551,550 $990,919,250
Non-Assessable 6 $2,427,991 $2,427,991 $4,855,982
Residential 55,011 $9,002,867,528 $4,501,433,764 $13,504,301,292 Residential-Income 510 $109,144,569 $54,572,285 $163,716,854 Rural, Farm, Agricultural 12 $1,448,594 $1,448,594 $2,897,188 Unclassified 2,606 $1,288,060,077 $1,288,060,077 $2,576,120,154 Vacant Commercial 120 $20,134,118 $20,134,118 $40,268,236 Vacant Residential 19 $1,397,413 $698,707 $2,096,120
Total 60,673 $14,126,321,781 $9,767,800,876 $23,894,122,657 Source: Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood analysis
2.2.2 Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
For the purposes of this plan, a critical facility is defined as one that is essential in providing utility or direction either during the response to an emergency or during the recovery operation. FEMA sorts critical facilities into seven lifeline categories as shown in Figure 4-1 in the Base Plan. Table 2-3 shows a summary of the critical facilities within the City of Modesto. Critical facilities and other community assets as important to protect in the event of a disaster.
Table 2-3 Critical Facilities within the City of Modesto Lifeline # of Critical Facilities
Communication 52
Energy 24
Food, Water, Shelter 25
Hazardous Materials 9
Health and Medical 112
Safety and Security 90
Transportation 32
Total 344
Within the City of Modesto, the following are considered critical facilities:
● Modesto Fire Department Stations 1 through 9 & 11
#1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 14 ● Stanislaus Consolidated Fire Protection District Station 30 ● Modesto Police Department building
● Modesto City-County Airport
● Water supply lines and wells
● Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP), pumping stations, and trunk lines ● Major electrical transmission lines and substations
● Major communication lines and microwave transmission facilities ● Major public and private schools
● Emergency shelter
● Public Library
● Hospital facilities, nursing homes and dialysis centers There are also several designated shelters in Modesto for use in an emergency event including Children Crisis Center and Modesto Central SDA Church. Also, major critical facilities in the City of Modesto, such as the Sutter Avenue WWTP were analyzed in the vulnerability assessment as a critical facility, not by property exposure by type.
2.2.3 Historic, Cultural and Natural Resources
Table 2-4 lists the historical resources that are located in the City of Modesto.
Table 2-4 Historical Resources within the City of Modesto Property Name Register Jurisdiction Date Listed
Hotel Covell National Modesto 12/29/1994
Mchenry Mansion National Modesto 4/4/1978
Mchenry Mansion Point of Interest Modesto 7/31/1979
Paradise Point of Interest Modesto 7/31/1979
U.S. Post Office National Modesto 2/10/1983
Walton, Dr. Robert and
Mary, House
National Modesto 12/14/2006
Wood, Walter B.,
House
National Modesto 5/20/1988
Source: California Office of Historic Preservation
Natural resources are important to include in benefit-cost analyses for future projects and may be used to leverage additional funding for projects that also contribute to community goals for protecting sensitive natural resources. According to the City’s General Plan Environmental Resources and Open Space Chapter, the Modesto Urban Area has a variety of natural and altered habitats supporting a diverse assemblage of plant and animal species. Many of these species depend upon natural areas and linkages between natural areas for their survival. Awareness of natural assets can lead to opportunities for meeting multiple objectives related to hazard mitigation. For instance, protecting wetlands areas protects sensitive habitat as well as attenuates and stores floodwaters.
2.3 Estimating Potential Losses
2.3.1 Dam Incidents
Protection from flood hazards created by dam failures is critical to the safety and well-being of Modesto residents. A dam vulnerability assessment was completed during the 2021 update, following the methodology described in Section 4 of the Base Plan. Dam inundation areas from the Don Pedro, Modesto Reservoir, Turlock Lake, New Exchequer, McSwain, Relief and Modesto Effluent Storage dams within the City of Modesto are shown in Figure 2-1. Don Pedro, Modesto Reservoir, Turlock Lake, New Exchequer, McSwain, Relief dams are all rated as high hazard. Don Pedro, Modesto Reservoir, New Exchequer and Relief dams are also rated as Extremely High by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD). Extremely High rated dams are expected to cause considerable loss of human life or result in an inundation area with a population of 1,000 or more.
All areas within City Limits and SOI are vulnerable to dam incidents. The City would experience #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 15 catastrophic damage if Don Pedro dam were to breach. A total of 344 critical facilities are located within the various dam inundation areas.
In addition, according to input received from the LPT, there is an existing problem with the floodway capacity downstream of Don Pedro dam. The current operation releases of 9,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) (or non-damaging flow) limits the preemptive releases needed to minimize a massive uncontrolled spill from the reservoir, which in the past has resulted in repeated flooding of DACs that reside along the edges of the Tuolumne River as well as the City of Modesto Sutter Avenue WWTP. Some of these DACs have experienced repeated flooding in 1950,1955, 1969 and 1997. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 16 Figure 2-1 City of Modesto Potential Dam Inundation Areas Table 2-5 summarizes the values at risk within Don Pedro dam’s inundation area.
Table 2-5 Don Pedro Dam Inundation
Property Type Improved Parcel Count Population
Commercial 2,071
Industrial 318
Non-Assessable 6
Residential 55,011 159,532
Residential-Income 510 1,479
#1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 17 Rural, Farm,
Agricultural
12 Unclassified 2,606
Vacant Commercial 120
Vacant Residential 19
Total 60,673 161,011
Source: California DSOD, National Inventory of Dams, Stanislaus County Assessor’s Office Future Development
The results of the SOI and dam analysis are shown in Table 2-6.
Table 2-6 Sphere of Influence Areas Exposed to Don Pedro Inundation Property Type Improved Parcel
County Population
Commercial 305
Industrial 435
Non-Assessable 5
Residential 5,271 15,286
Residential-Income 214 621
Rural, Farm, Agricultural 254
Unclassified 136
Vacant Commercial 55
Vacant Residential 16
Total 6,691 15,907
Source: Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood analysis
2.3.2 Drought
The City’s Utilities Department and Water Services Team provides water supply production, treatment, and distribution to City residents through over 75,000 water connections served by a system of pipelines, wells, and water tanks (City of Modesto 2021). The City’s water supply is sourced from both surface water and groundwater (City of Modesto 2021). In 2021, the City obtained approximately 54 percent of its water supply from groundwater via City-operated wells with the remaining 46 percent sourced from surface water from the Modesto Irrigation District (MID).
Because the City relies on surface water that is primarily replenished by the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the City is susceptible to drought, especially as the City grows and the demand for water increases. With drier winters and higher temperatures that lead to more rain instead of snow, the San Joaquin Valley will experience a reduction in the spring snowpack runoff, which can lead to long-term drought conditions.
The City of Modesto already encourages the community to do their part to conserve the region’s groundwater and surface water supplies. The City adopted a water schedule that becomes effective from April through October where outdoor water use is prohibited on certain days. Outdoor water accounts for about a third of the average household’s water use, thereby effectively reducing water consumption in the City by roughly 25 percent. The City began installing water meters in 2006 as part of a 15-year plan to help the City’s customers conserve water and save money; more than 70,000 water meters are now in operation. The City also offers homeowners rebates for installing efficient applicants. Further, the City implements Utility Master Plans, a Water Conservation Plan, the Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs), and Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP), which is part of their 2020 Joint Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) (City of Modesto 2020). Each of these plans provide a guide for the City to assess water supply availability and mitigate water supply shortages to maintain public health and safety.
The City also has preparedness efforts in place to allow the City to plan for both near-term and 5-year drought situations. Nevertheless, long-term climate change and the impact of reduced snow melt and change in seasonal run-off patterns, warmer temperatures, and potentially higher frequency and/or severe droughts could have on the region and the City within this century will need to be more clearly defined regarding risk, impact, and mitigation. If drought hazards become too frequent or too severe and #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 18 the current surface water storage and conveyance system and groundwater management efforts start to resemble a situation where the City and the nearby region can no longer provide the necessary water supply to sustain the City’s future water needs, drought hazards will be revisited and addressed in this Annex and may become a priority hazard in the future. At this time drought hazards are profiled for public awareness and planning purposes only.
In summary, the City has dedicated staff and resources to manage water resources and decrease the demand on the Modesto Subbasin. The City may benefit from developing alternative backup supplies through additional storage facilities to mitigate impacts during drought events in the future. As such, various projects and policy initiatives are proposed to maintain the City’s balanced water portfolio and reduce the City’s reliance on groundwater pumping to allow for aquifer recovery; these storage facility projects are currently addressed in the GSP, UWMP, and WSCP. Future water conservation policies are also updated on a routine basis to comply with new legislation and water use objectives.
2.3.3 Extreme Temperatures: Freeze and Extreme Heat
The frequency of heat waves been increasing in recent years across the County and the City of Modesto.
As noted in the County Base Plan, climate change will continue to cause more extreme heat events and studies show that, by the end of this century, the number of days with temperatures reaching or exceeding 100°F is projected to increase as a result of climate change. The historic average maximum temperature in Modesto has been 74.6°F. This number is expected to increase to 79.7°F by 2050 and to
82.9°F by 2100. According to Cal-Adapt and the Modesto 2050 General Plan Update documents, any day that reaches a high of 102.9°F or above in Modesto has qualified as a high heat day, and approximately four high heat days have occurred per year. By 2050, approximately 22 high heat days are projected to occur per year. By 2100, Modesto is projected to experience 42 high heat days per year. As temperatures rise and extreme heat events last longer and become more severe and frequent, they will result in a rise in heat-related health problems and deaths caused by heat.
Households in the City of Modesto may also lack air conditioning systems, and the City needs additional cooling centers (cooling zones). These cooling facilities also may need to be upgraded with adequate HVAC equipment and permanent back-up power to provide the community with a safe and cool place during extreme heat events. However, at this time, the City’s overall risk to extreme temperatures is low.
2.3.4 Flooding
The primary types of flood events that may impact the City of Modesto are riverine and local urban flooding. Regardless of the type of flood, the cause is often the result of severe weather and excessive rainfall, either in the flood area, upstream, or from winter snowmelt.
The entire southwestern portion of the City of Modesto, as well as a segment to the south of the City’s northeastern portion, have been determined to be in the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) or 100-year floodplain and also 500-year floodplain. The physical risks associated with potential flooding and the regulatory requirements for floodplain management are important considerations when decisions are being made regarding future land use throughout the City of Modesto. The rest of Modesto lies outside the 100-year floodplain designated by FEMA. Based on the history of flooding in the County of Stanislaus, the City of Modesto and surrounding areas are considered likely to have the hazard potential for future flooding. Parts of the City may also be prone to local flooding problems associated with poor drainage issues. Climate change is also expected to increase the intensity of major storms, which could create more frequent and severe flooding. In summary, the risk to riverine flooding in the City is high due to development in the floodplain and localized flooding issues. The City also participates in the NFIP; therefore, the flood hazards are addressed in this vulnerability assessment for public awareness and planning purposes.
A flood vulnerability assessment was completed during the 2021 update, following the methodology described in Section 4 of the Base Plan. Flood hazards for the City of Modesto are shown in Figure 2-2.
Table 2-7 summarizes the values at risk in the City’s 1% annual chance floodplain. Table 2-8 summarizes the values at risk in the City’s 0.2% annual chance floodplain. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 19 Figure 2-2 City of Modesto FEMA 1% & 0.2% Annual Chance Floodplains Table 2-7 City of Modesto FEMA 1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard, by Property Type Property
Type
Improved
Parcel
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Estimated
Loss Population
Industrial 1 $3,453,683 $5,180,525 $8,634,208 $2,158,552 Residential 183 $30,649,630 $15,324,815 $45,974,445 $11,493,611 531 ResidentialIncome1 $230,847 $115,424 $346,271 $86,568 3 Unclassified 2 $64,756 $64,756 $129,512 $32,378
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 20 Property
Type
Improved
Parcel
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Estimated
Loss Population
Total 187 $34,398,916 $20,685,519 $55,084,435 $13,771,109 534 Source: Stanislaus County Assessor’s Office; National Flood Hazard Layer Effective 8/24/2021; FEMA; Wood analysis Table 2-8 City of Modesto FEMA 0.2% Annual Chance Flood Hazard, by Property Type Property
Type
Improved
Parcel
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Estimated
Loss Population
Commercial 16 $2,465,262 $2,465,262 $4,930,524 $1,232,631 Industrial 2 $589,725 $884,588 $1,474,313 $368,578
Residential 913 $121,250,154 $60,625,077 $181,875,231 $45,468,808 2,648 ResidentialIncome11 $1,530,478 $765,239 $2,295,717 $573,929 32 Unclassified 92 $17,681,365 $17,681,365 $35,362,730 $8,840,683 Vacant
Commercial
1 $17,288 $17,288 $34,576 $8,644
Total 1,035 $143,534,272 $82,438,819 $225,973,091 $56,493,273 2,680 Based on this analysis, the City of Modesto has 187 improved parcels located within the 1% annual chance floodplain for a total value of around $55.1 million. The potential loss is estimated at around $13.8 million if these areas were inundated by the 1% annual chance flood. In addition, the City of Modesto has 1,035 improved parcels located within the 0.2% annual chance floodplain for a total value of around $226 million. The potential loss is estimated at around $56.5 million if these areas were inundated by the 0.2% annual chance flood. The population at risk was calculated for the 1% and 0.2% annual chance floodplains based on the number of residential properties at risk and the average number of persons per household (2.9). There are an estimated 534 persons at risk to 1% annual chance flood and 1,780 persons at risk to 0.2% annual chance flood in the City of Modesto. The DWR Awareness 100-year and USACE Comprehensive Study 200-year floodplains within the City of Modesto are shown in Figure 2-3. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 21 Figure 2-3 City of Modesto DWR Awareness 100-Year & USACE Comprehensive Study 2—Year Floodplains
Critical Facilities at Risk
Critical facilities are those community components that are most needed to withstand the impacts of disaster as previously described. Table 2-9 and Table 2-10 list the critical facilities in the City’s 1% and
0.2% annual chance floodplains respectively. Figure 2-4 shows the location of the critical facilities in the City’s 1% and 0.2% annual percent chance floodplains. There is a total of six facilities potentially exposed to a 1% annual chance flood events, including the Sutter Avenue WWTP, Domestic Wastewater Collection System River Trunk, Cannery Segregation Trunk, Modesto Effluent Storage Dam, and two bridges. There are also seven facilities potentially exposed to a 0.2% annual chance flood events, including three elementary schools, two bridges, one cell tower and one assisted living facility. The impact #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 22 on the community could be substantial if any of these facilities are damaged or destroyed during a flood event. Impacts to any of the City’s key wastewater facilities and infrastructure and conveyance systems would result in severe service disruptions to the community and subsequent costs associated with response and recovery.
Table 2-9 Critical Facilities at risk of 1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard, by FEMA Lifeline FEMA Lifeline Count
Communications -
Energy -
Food, Water, Shelter 2
Hazardous Materials 1
Health and Medical -
Safety and Security 1
Transportation 2
Total 6
Source: Stanislaus County; Stanislaus County, HIFLD, NID, DWR, National Flood Hazard Layer Effective 8/24/2021; FEMA; Wood analysis
Table 2-10 Critical Facilities at risk of 0.2% Annual Chance Flood Hazard, by FEMA Lifeline FEMA Lifeline Count
Communications 1
Energy -
Food, Water, Shelter -
Hazardous Materials -
Health and Medical 1
Safety and Security 3
Transportation 2
Total 7
Source: Stanislaus County; Stanislaus County, HIFLD, NID, DWR, National Flood Hazard Layer Effective 8/24/2021; FEMA; Wood analysis
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 23 Figure 2-4 Critical Facilities at Risk of FEMA 1% & 0.2% Annual Flood Hazard Insurance Coverage, Claims Paid, and Repetitive Losses
The City of Modesto joined the NFIP on August 15, 1980. NFIP Insurance data indicates that as of May 2022, there were 166 flood insurance policies in force in the City with $46,130,900 of coverage. 53 of these policies are located in A01-30 & AE zones. 133 policies are located in B, C & X zones. Most of the policies are single-family residential. There have been 50 historical claims for flood losses totaling $1,654,264. According to the FEMA Community Information System accessed April 6, 2022, the City has had 18 Repetitive Loss properties but no Severe Repetitive Loss properties.
Future Development
The results of the SOI flood analysis are shown in Table 2-11 and Table 2-12. A total of 517 parcels within the SOI are exposed to the 1% annual chance flood. A total of 586 parcels within the SOI are #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 24 exposed to the 0.5% annual chance flood. This indicates the risk to existing development that could be under the City’s jurisdiction if the area was annexed.
Table 2-11 Sphere of Influence Areas Exposed to 1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard Property Type
Improved
Parcel
Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Estimated
Loss Population
Commercial 11 $3,739,598 $3,739,598 $7,479,196 $1,869,799 N/A Industrial 7
$12,048,836 $18,073,254 $30,122,090
$7,530,523 N/A
Non-Assessable 1 $229,802 $229,802 $459,604 $114,901 N/A Residential 457
$31,451,735 $15,725,868 $47,177,603 $11,794,401
1,325
Residential-Income 8 $830,897 $415,449 $1,246,346 $311,586 23 Rural, Farm,
Agricultural
6 $1,563,758 $1,563,758 $3,127,516 $781,879 N/A
Unclassified 24 $3,326,479 $3,326,479 $6,652,958 $1,663,240 N/A Vacant Commercial 2 $24,038 $24,038 $48,076 $12,019 N/A Vacant Residential 1 $3,546 $1,773 $5,319 $1,330 3
Total 517 $53,218,689 $43,100,018 $96,318,707 $24,079,677 1,351 Source: Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood analysis
Table 2-12 Sphere of Influence Areas Exposed to 0.2% Annual Chance Flood Hazard Property
Type
Improved
Parcel Count
Improved
Value
Estimated
Content
Value
Total Value Estimated
Loss Population
Commercial 16 $4,992,920 $4,992,920 $9,985,840 $2,496,460 Industrial 16 $83,980,590
$125,970,885 $209,951,475 $52,487,869
Residential 492 $41,162,869 $20,581,435 $61,744,304
$15,436,076
1,427
ResidentialIncome20 $1,816,858 $908,429 $2,725,287 $681,322 58 Rural,
Farm,
Agricultural
16 $2,008,449 $2,008,449 $4,016,898 $1,004,225
Unclassified 22 $2,451,776 $2,451,776 $4,903,552 $1,225,888 Vacant
Commercial
2 $15,441 $15,441 $30,882 $7,721
Vacant
Residential
2 $30,617 $15,309 $45,926 $11,481 6
Total 586 $136,459,520 $156,944,643 $293,404,163 $73,351,041 1,491 Source: Stanislaus County Assessor, Wood analysis
Climate change continues to bring intensified impacts and greater challenges to flood management in the Central Valley and the City of Modesto and why strengthening flood programs is critical to recharging groundwater aquifers and protecting public safety. Climate change will continue to effect hydrology and result in increases in precipitation falling as rain instead of snow at higher elevations, result in extreme precipitation events (exacerbated by atmospheric rivers and greater runoff events), and increase the frequency and intensity of storms. These impacts will also increase flood risks for the Central Valley as a result of population and development growth.
The latest climate science information relevant to the Central Valley and the City of Modesto is summarized in the 2022 CVFPP update. This update advanced the information summarized in the 2017 CVFPP and improved the understanding of uncertainty associated with climate change projections for the #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 25 Central Valley watersheds and reservoir vulnerability. While further climate change trends are improving, the range of potential future conditions still remains uncertain. As a result, key findings focused on three climate change projections created by downscaled climate models. In summary, more warming is projected for all future scenarios, which will result in less watershed below freezing temperatures.
For example, the freezing elevation in the San Joaquin River will increase from 8,000 feet in no climate change scenario to 12,000 feet in the high climate change scenario (CVFPP 2022). Increasing and warmer rainfall and less snow will result in more runoff above 6,000 feet in elevation, thereby increasing peak flows. Less snowfall from major storms means decreases in winter snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt. Precipitation levels will vary from a 10 percent decrease in the low climate change scenario, no change in the medium climate change scenario, and a 15 percent increase in the high climate change scenario. Also, major storms will generate higher flow peaks, which will result in more streamflow in the winter and less streamflow in the spring.
Climate change will also make the Central Valley reservoirs more vulnerable as flood events may require reservoirs to need to release more water downstream. However, reservoirs can only release as much water as the downstream channel can safety accommodate (CVFPP 2022). When inflows to a reservoir exceed the reservoir capacity, dam safety concerns necessitate emergency operations to reduce storage based on the system’s designed structural capacity. This means peak flows may increase throughout these systems due to the increased runoff from upstream of the flood control reservoirs. Therefore, there are needs to decrease flood risk, both above and below reservoirs, expand storage, and increase downstream flood capacity (CVPPP 2022).
3 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Capabilities are the programs and policies currently in use to reduce hazard impacts or that could be used to implement hazard mitigation activities. This capabilities assessment is divided into five sections:
regulatory mitigation capabilities, administrative and technical mitigation capabilities, fiscal mitigation capabilities, mitigation outreach, and partnerships, and other mitigation efforts. To develop this capability assessment, the LPT representatives reviewed a matrix of common mitigation activities to inventory which of these policies or programs and shared any updates or changes through the Modesto Data Collection Guide. The team then supplemented this inventory by reviewing additional existing policies, regulations, plans, and programs to determine if they contribute to reducing hazard-related losses.
During the plan update process, this inventory was reviewed by the jurisdictional planning representatives and Wood consultant team staff to update information where applicable and note ways in which these capabilities have improved or expanded. Additionally, in summarizing current capabilities and identifying gaps, the jurisdictional planning representatives also considered their ability to expand or improve upon existing policies and programs as potential new mitigation strategies. The City of Modesto’s capabilities are summarized below.
3.1 Regulatory Capability
The regulatory and planning capabilities table lists planning and land management tools typically used by local jurisdictions to implement hazard mitigation activities. The table below indicates those that are in place in the City of Modesto.
Table 3-1 City of Modesto —Regulatory and Planning Capabilities Regulatory Tool
(ordinances, codes, plans) Yes/No Comments
General Plan Yes Adopted March 5, 2019
Zoning ordinance Yes Title 10
Subdivision ordinance Yes Title 4 Chapter 4
Growth management ordinance No
Floodplain ordinance Yes Title 9 Chapter 4
Other special purpose ordinance
(stormwater, steep slope, wildfire)
Yes Title 5 Chapter 10 Storm Water Management and
Discharge Controls
Building code Yes Title 9
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 26 Fire department ISO rating Yes Rating 2
Erosion or sediment control program Yes Title 5 Chapter 10 Article 3. – Grading and Erosion Control
Stormwater management program Yes 2011 Revised Modesto Stormwater Guidance Manual Site plan review requirements Yes Title 9 Chapter 11 Article 6 9-11.606 Site Plan Capital improvements plan Yes Fiscal Year 2021-2022 through 2025-2026 (most recent) Economic development plan No
Local emergency operations plan No
Other special plans Yes Water System Emergency Response Plan (2021) Flood insurance study or other
engineering study for streams
Yes Included in the County’s Flood Insurance Study (FIS), which was revised on August 24, 2021
Elevation certificates (for floodplain
development)
No No
Other Yes Mid San Joaquin River Regional Flood Management Plan (MSJR RFMP)
Modesto General Plan 2040 (2019)
The General Plan is “a set of instructions on how to build the City presented in nine chapters (elements):
Land Use; Open Space; Conservation; Housing; Circulation; Noise; Safety; Air Quality; and, Environmental Justice. The Modesto General Plan addresses the challenges of the future by presenting a blueprint for the preservation of Modesto’s “quality of life” while providing direction for the growth of business and industry to meet the needs of future generations in the Modesto community. The General Plan includes visions for the future, covering the following aspects:
● Employment Opportunities: A guiding principal in the General Plan is to provide jobs to match housing and population growth by designating more than 5,000 total acres of new Business Park and Commercial land acreage combined in the City. This contributes to the potential for approximately 295,000 total jobs within the General Plan boundary.
● Comprehensive Planning: As Modesto grows, comprehensive planning approaches are needed to respond to increasingly complex land development and public facilities and service issues. ● Accommodating Mobility Needs: This General Plan envisions a street system, supplemented by transit, passenger rail and nonmotorized transportation systems, to provide for efficient movement of people, goods and services, and to reduce traffic congestion and reduce vehicle miles traveled over time.
● Maintaining Older Neighborhoods: Modesto’s historic and older neighborhoods provide a range of aesthetic and lifestyle choices. The City reinforces the appeal, character, and economic value of these neighborhoods by investing in infrastructure improvements and revitalization efforts in these areas.
● Integrating New Neighborhoods and Development: The City integrates new development into the fabric of existing adjacent neighborhoods, with strong pedestrian connections, compatible scale and complementary architecture. The City’s development standards and design guidelines will help realize this vision as new development occurs.
● Agricultural Land Preservation: Agriculture is a leading industry in Stanislaus County.
The City of Modesto did not participate in the 2017 LHMP process. For this reason, the County’s 2017 LHMP was not incorporated into the City’s General Plan Safety Element. The City is also in the process of preparing a comprehensive update to the Urban Area General Plan. While the current General Plan was last amended in 2019, it has not be comprehensively updated since 1995. The Modesto 2050 update process will determine the City’s long-term future in order to reflect the current issues, ideas, and aspirations of the community and to plan ahead through the year 2050.
City of Modesto Strategic Plan 2020 – 2025
The City of Modesto’s 2020 – 2025 Strategic Plan serves as a roadmap for Modesto’s promise as a place where inclusive community can prosper, and innovation grows. The Strategic Plan is the result of a yearlong planning process that included the community, city management, and city staff. Through the process, the Council and executive team identified ten long-range goals and specific strategies for reaching those goals. The Strategic Plan contains three overarching areas of focus, including Quality of Life, Economic Vitality and Governance and Service Delivery, and the ten long-range goals apply to these three overarching areas.
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 27 Emergency Services Ordinance, Title 3 Chapter 4
The purpose of the Emergency Services Ordinance is to provide for the preparation and carrying out of plans for protection of persons and property within the City in the event of an emergency; the direction of the emergency organization; and the coordination of the emergency functions of the City with all other public agencies, corporations, organizations, and affected private persons.
The Ordinance establishes the Modesto Disaster Council membership; the Disaster Council powers and duties, which include developing and recommending for adoption by the City Council; emergency and mutual aid plans and agreements and such ordinances and resolutions and rules and regulations as are necessary to implement such plans and agreements. The City Manager shall be the Director of Emergency Services. The Director is empowered to request the City Council to proclaim the existence or threatened existence of a "local emergency" if the City Council is in session, or to issue such proclamation if the City Council is not in session. The Director is also empowered to request the Governor to proclaim a "state of emergency" when, in the opinion of the Director, the locally available resources are inadequate to cope with the emergency. Moreover, the Ordinance authorizes that the Modesto Disaster Council to be responsible for the development of the City of Modesto Emergency Plan, which provides for the effective mobilization of all of the resources of the City to meet the needs constituting a local emergency, state of emergency, or state of war emergency. Such plan shall take effect upon adoption by resolution of the City Council.
Adoption of the California Fire Code, 2019 Edition, Title 3 Chapter 1 The City of Modesto adopts by reference the California Fire Code, 2019 Edition of the California Code of Regulations Title 24. The Fire Code regulates the safeguarding of life and property from fire and explosion hazards arising from the storage, handling, and use of hazardous substances, materials and devices, and from conditions hazardous to life or property in the occupancy of buildings. The Code also authorizes the City to issue permits, collect fees, and provide penalties for the violation and each and all of the regulations, provisions, penalties, conditions and terms of the California Fire Code, 2019 Edition.
Floodplain Management Ordinance Title 9 Chapter 4
The purpose of the City’s Floodplain Management Ordinance is to promote public health, safety, and general welfare, and to minimize public and private losses due to flood conditions in specific areas by legally enforceable regulations. These regulations are applied to all publicly and privately owned land within flood-prone, mudslide, or flood-related erosion areas. These regulations are designed to protect human life and health; minimize expenditure of public money for costly flood control projects; minimize the need for rescue and relief efforts associated with flooding; and minimize prolonged business interruptions. The Floodplain Management Ordinance is in place to minimize damage to public facilities and utilities in SFHAs and help maintain a stable tax base by providing for the sound development of areas of special flood hazard. The Ordinance also ensures that potential buyers are notified that property is in a SFHA and ensure that those who occupy the areas of special flood hazard assume responsibility for their actions.
All new construction or substantial improvements of residential structures shall have the lowest floor, including the basement elevated to or above the base flood elevation (BFE) (in AE, AH, A1-30 zones), or elevated to or above the BFE, as determined under the review, use and development of other base flood data (in an A zone, without BFE’s specified on the FIRM). Where FEMA has not provided the City with BFE data in accordance with SFHA, the Floodplain Administrator shall obtain, review, and reasonably utilize any BFE and floodway data available from a federal or state agency, or other sources. Upon the completion of the structure, the elevation of the lowest floor including basement shall be certified by a registered professional engineer or surveyor and verified by the Community Building Inspector to be properly elevated. When BFE changes due to physical alternations, within six months after issuance of a grading permit, before issuance of a building permit, or before the start of construction, whichever occurs first, the Floodplain Administrator shall submit or assure that the permit applicant submits technical or scientific data to FEMA as required for a Letter of Map Revision.
Urban Water Quality Control Ordinance, Chapter 8.30
The purpose of the Urban Water Quality Control Ordinance is to ensure, protect, and promote the health, safety, general welfare, and protection of property for City of Modesto. It includes regulations that prohibit #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 28 non-storm water discharges into the City municipal separate storm sewer system (MS4), and to reduce the discharge of pollutants in storm water to the maximum extent practicable. This is accomplished by regulating non-storm water discharges to the City's MS4; controlling the discharge to City's MS4 from spills, overland flow, dumping, or disposal of materials other than storm water; reducing pollutants in storm water discharges from the City's MS4 to the maximum extent practicable; and minimizing damage to property and public rights-of-way. The Ordinance also minimizes degradation of the water quality of watercourses and controlling industrial and commercial pollutant discharges to City's MS4.
3.2 Administrative and Technical Capability
The table below identifies City personnel with responsibilities for activities related to mitigation and loss prevention in the City of Modesto. Many positions are full-time and/or filled by the same person. A summary of technical resources follows based on the organization of the City’s departmental staff.
Table 3-2 City of Modesto —Personnel Capabilities
Personnel Resources Yes/No Department/Position Comments Planner/engineer with knowledge of land
development/land management practices Yes Community & Economic Development Department Engineer/professional trained in
construction practices related to buildings
and/or infrastructure
Yes
Community & Economic
Development Department
Planner/engineer/scientist with an
understanding of natural hazards Yes Community & Economic Development Department Personnel skilled in GIS Yes Information Technology
Department
Full time building official Yes Community & Economic
Development Department
Floodplain manager Yes City Engineer
Emergency manager Yes The City Manager (Director
of Emergency Services)
Grant writer Yes Administration
Other personnel
Yes
Multiple agencies and
departments with support
personnel expanding
capabilities for mitigation
GIS Data Resources
(Hazard areas, critical facilities, land use,
building footprints, etc.)
Yes
City of Modesto GIS ArcGIS
Online Platform
Warning Systems/Services
(Reverse 9-11, cable override, outdoor
warning signals)
No
City of Modesto Alert Center
Other
City Council
The City of Modesto has a Council-Manager form of government. Voters elect the City Council to serve as the policy-making board of the City. The Council, in turn, appoints a City Manager to administer these policies. The Modesto City Council has seven members, including the Mayor, elected at large on a nonpartisan basis for four-year terms. Their terms of office expire in alternate odd-numbered years. The City Council serves as a legislative body, enacting ordinances, orders and resolutions necessary for governing Modesto as outlined in the City Charter and deemed important by the public.
The Modesto City Council is the City’s legislative body. It sets policies, approves budgets, determines tax rates and passes ordinances and resolutions to govern the City. Council also appoints citizen volunteers to more than 26 City advisory boards, committees, and commissions; and appoints and supervises the performance of the City Manager, City Attorney and City Clerk.
One of the several boards and commission overseen by City Council includes the Board of Zoning Adjustment. This Board upholds the integrity of zoning regulations and the Modesto General Plan. The board makes decisions on applications for conditional use permits, variances and site plans for office #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 29 development. The Board of Zoning Adjustment also hears appeals concerning decisions made by the Community and Economic Development Department staff.
The Council also oversees the Planning Commission. The Planning Commission is responsible for making decisions and recommendations regarding the development of the community. The Planning Commission has final authority regarding subdivision maps and parcel maps, certain zoning matters and development plans, and occasionally matters appealed either from the staff level or Board of Zoning Adjustment. The Planning Commission makes recommendations to the City Council regarding annexations, rezonings, code amendments and most General Plan-related matters.
The Citizens Housing and Community Development Committee provides overall review of the City's Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funds. The committee makes funding recommendations to the Modesto City Council regarding the HUD Community Development Block Grant, Emergency Shelter Grant, and Home Investment Partnership Grant programs.
The Modesto City Council also oversees the Modesto Economic Development Committee. The Modesto Economic Development Committee is associated with the City’s Community & Economic Development and Public Works Departments. The Committee’s roles cover land use, redevelopment, the downtown Master Plan, urban growth, economic development, stormwater, and implementation of wastewater & water master plans.
City Attorney
The City Attorney’s Office provides legal services to the City in support of the City Council, Mayor, and Department staff. It provides advice on transactional matters, litigation, and prosecutorial legal services.
City Auditor
The City Auditor (Modesto City Auditor’s Office [MCAO] provides objective assurance and advisory services designed to restore the public trust. The auditor effectively evaluates the effectiveness of the City Council, City Manager, City Clerk, and City Attorney. This responsibility encompasses sound financial management, adequate reporting, maintaining an effective system of internal controls, compliance with applicable rules and regulations, and maintaining the highest standards of ethical conduct at the City.
City Clerk
The City Clerk is appointed by the City Council. The City Clerk attends regular and special meetings of the Council and keep an accurate record of the proceedings of the Council. The City Clerk records all ordinances of the City, and of all written resolutions adopted by the Council. The Clerk also keeps records of Council proceedings and in a way that is easily accessible to the public. The City Clerk also administers oaths and affidavits in connection with City affairs or business, oversees City and Board of Education elections, and the publications of all official City advertisements. The City Clerk also files Officer of Campaign Financial Disclosure Statements and Statements of Economic Interests, as required by State Law.
City Manager’s Office
The City Manager’s Office manages the services of the City and is responsible for all operations of city government and making recommendations to the City Council on a variety of issues. The City Manager’s Office addresses the community’s priorities through the three focus areas outlined in the City’s Strategic Plan 2020-2025.
Community and Economic Development Department
The objective of the Community & Economic Development Department is to ensure that new development achieves a balance between the economic, social, environmental and quality of life goals for the City of Modesto. The Community & Economic Development Department consists of multiple divisions, including Building Safety and Neighborhood Preservation Division, Community Development Division, Economic Development Division, Land Development and Engineering Division, Planning Division and Transportation Engineering and Design Division. The Planning Division is currently managing the comprehensive update to the City’s General Plan.
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 30 Finance Department
The Finance Department oversees the City’s financial functions including the collection, receipting, disbursement, and accounting of all monies received. The City Finance Department also oversees the development and administration of operating and capital improvement budgets, purchasing, new debt investments, and audits and grants.
Fire Department
The Modesto Fire Department is a professional, community service-driven organization that provides All risk Emergency Services to meet the needs of the community. The Modesto Fire Department serves, protects, and partners with agencies to make the City safe. The mission of the Fire Department is to provide efficient and effective fire and life safety protection to the community through control of hostile fire, fire prevention services, emergency medical services, emergency preparedness, and mitigation of hazardous materials incidents.
Human Resources Department
The mission of the Human Resources Department is to recruit and retain a qualified and diverse workforce to meet the varied needs of the organization ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022). The Department also trains and develops the department workforce towards minimizing the risk of loss associated with the provision of City services.
Information Technology
The Information Technology Department (ITD) provides technology services, support and guidance to City departments as well as a growing community of residents, businesses, and visitors within the City of Modesto ("Modesto, CA | Official Website" 2022). The ITD manages the GoModesto! Platform, which is a multi-lingual reporting tool to report issues related to street flooding, light outages, illegal dumping and vandalism. The ITD also oversees the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping and database program. .
Parks, Recreation, and Neighborhoods Department
The Parks, Recreation and Neighborhoods Department builds and maintains parks, trails, and recreational facilities and implements recreational and enrichment programs. The Department also meets to exceed the open space and recreation needs of the community.
Police Department
The mission of the Modesto Police Department cut the crime rate and improve the quality of life in the City of Modesto.
Public Works Department
The City’s Public Works Department provides maintenance services for the airport, streets, traffic control systems, City buildings, parking, City vehicles and City trees. The Department also provides services such as garbage pick-up and recycling, green waste collection and public transit.
Utilities Department
The Modesto Utilities Department provides various services, including water services, wastewater reclamation, and environmental services.
3.3 Fiscal Capability
The following table identifies financial tools or resources that the City could potentially use to help fund mitigation activities. There are currently no specific funding sources for hazard mitigation. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 31 Table 3-3 City of Modesto —Available Financial Tools and Resources Financial Resources
Accessible/
Eligible to
Use
Has This Been Used for
Mitigation in the Past? Comments
Community Development
Block Grants
Yes No
Capital improvements project
funding
Yes No
Authority to levy taxes for
specific purposes
Yes No Must be approved by voters
Fees for water, sewer, gas, or
electric services, new
development
Yes
No
Incur debt through general
obligation bonds
Yes No
Incur debt through special tax
bonds
Yes No Requires approval by two-thirds of
voters
Incur debt through private
activities
Yes No Do not have any in place
Federal Grant Programs
(Hazard Mitigation Grant
Program)
Yes
No
Various Departments
3.4 Outreach and Partnerships
The City of Modesto partners with the Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services (OES) Division.
The Stanislaus County OES is responsible for the day-to-day administration of Stanislaus County's disaster preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery programs. OES develops and maintains the Stanislaus County Emergency Operations Plan and its associated annexes. OES also coordinates training, planning and exercises for first responders throughout the Stanislaus Operational Area.
According to Stanislaus County OES’ 2021 – Emergency Management Strategic Plan, OES listed “increase number of outreach engagements (i.e. meetings, events) as an action item to achieve one of its strategic goals, which is to build a culture of preparedness. The Stanislaus County OES will work with community partners to develop agreements for mutual aid, facilitate discussion with partners regarding preparedness planning, conduct outreach activities to engage residents, and attend emergency management trainings and conferences to stay up to date with the most current practices for disaster preparedness. The City also works in coordination with the County on the Stanislaus County MJHMP.
Moreover, the Stanislaus County OES protects the public’s safety by developing and maintaining general and specific preparedness programs for the County and its nine cities. The OES educates and informs the public in the areas of emergency preparedness and fire prevention.
During the 2021-2022 planning process the following outreach efforts were identified that the City of Modesto could support related to hazard mitigation:
● Ongoing “City Beat” Monthly Newsletter
● Community Health and Assistance Team (C.H.A.T.)
● Fire Prevention School Programs
● Social Media (Facebook, Instagram)
● Continued collaboration with the Mid San Joaquin Regional Flood Management Plan Working Group Education and outreach efforts, as well as emergency response planning, will also need to address the needs of low-income residents and the large Spanish-speaking population in the City. The City’s LPT can enhance outreach to engage better participation among the Spanish-speaking population through bilingual newsletter publications, social media posts, and surveys. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 32
3.5 Other Mitigation Efforts
Central Valley Flood Protection Plan
The Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) is the State of California’s strategic blueprint for Central Valley flood risk management. It guides the State’s policies, investments, and partnerships. And it ensures a climate-driven technical foundation for a flood management system that helps protect communities, contributes to native species recovery, and integrates fully into broader water management conversations. The CVFPP is part of California’s integrated water resources management strategy. The CVFPP is a descriptive document that reflects a systemwide approach to flood management. The San Joaquin River Basin Systemwide Management as well as the related regional flood management strategy has been a focus area in the CVFPP. The 2022 CVFPP Update public review draft was made available in April 2022; this update uses new information, updated science, innovative tools, and recommends priority actions to address flood risk related to climate change.
The flood mitigation actions identified by the City’s LPT, which are described in Section 4.3 of this Annex, align with the CVFPP regarding improving Tuolumne River Resilience, as part of the San Joaquin River Basin. Refer to Section 4.3.8 of the Base Plan for more details on the CVFPP.
Mid San Joaquin River Regional Flood Management Plan (2017) The Mid San Joaquin River Regional Flood Management Plan (MSJR RFMP) was first developed in 2013-2014, and was updated in 2017, through the participation of a range of stakeholders primarily from Stanislaus County. This regional planning effort was created to give stakeholders the opportunity to develop a plan to reduce flood risks in the area from the confluence of the Merced and the San Joaquin Rivers to the confluence of the Stanislaus and the San Joaquin Rivers. The result of these efforts is a vision for a safer and more flood-resilient region that identifies challenges and opportunities for flood management and a prioritized list of actions for Department of Water Resources to consider in the CVFPP. The MSJR RFMP also identifies priority flood protection projects to be carried out by local sponsors, and the City of Modesto has been a major stakeholder in developing the MSJR RFMPs. The 2022 MSJR RFMP update is also underway with a focus on further defining a safer and flood resilient region with strategies and projects that reshape flood management and include locally-sponsored strategies and projects that meet multiple objectives for floodplain management, habitat restoration, groundwater recharge, recreation access, and environmental justice.
The flood mitigation actions identified by the City’s LPT, which are detailed described in Section 4.3, conform and are consistent with the MSJR RFMPs’ goal to recognize projects and actions for flood control and management as well as creating a safer and more flood-resilient region. Both the relocation of Sutter Avenue Primary WWTP Facilities project and an action related to Tuolumne River & Carpenter Road are listed as high priority projects in the MSJR RFMP. Refer to Section 4.3.8 of the Base Plan for more details on the MSJR RFMP.
Tuolumne River Floodway Capacity Increase Draft Action Plan (2022) This Action Plan guides the planning and implementation of priority actions in the San Joaquin River Basin to increase Tuolumne River floodway capacity to respond to the Water Resilience Portfolio and specifically Action 25.4, which is to update and refine the regional flood management strategy in the CVFPP to account for the projected impacts of climate change in order to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure and restore floodplains along the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. The Tuolumne River Floodway Capacity Increase mitigation project, which is described in Section 4.3 is consistent with this Draft Action Plan and aims for increased flood risk reduction and safer operation of Don Pedro Dam, both currently and within a future when rainfall and other precipitation events will be affected by climate change.
3.6 Opportunities for Enhancement
Based on the capability assessment, the City of Modesto has existing regulatory, administrative/technical, fiscal mechanisms in place that help to mitigate hazards. In addition to these existing capabilities, there are opportunities for the City to expand or improve on these policies and programs to further protect the community. These are organized below by regulatory, administrative/technical, fiscal, and outreach opportunities.
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 33 Regulatory Opportunities
Future opportunities for regulatory enhancement should focus on compliance with Assembly Bill 2140, including amending the City of Modesto General Plan Safety Element to incorporate the 2021-2022 Stanislaus County MJHMP and City of Modesto Annex by reference; or by comprehensively updating the Hazards and Safety Element in the current Modesto 2050 Urban Area General Plan.
Administrative/Technical Opportunities
Other future enhancements may include providing hazard training for staff or hazard mitigation grant funding in partnership with Stanislaus County and Cal OES. Existing City staff are aware of the benefits of participating in training and webinars offered by Cal OES Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) Team related to HMGP opportunities, HMGP Sub application Development support, and other funding programs, such as Prepare California Jumpstart. Other opportunities may be related to coordinating and educating key stakeholders in the City. Other stakeholders may be interested in aligning efforts related to hazard mitigation and also supporting HMGP Sub applications and other hazard mitigation trainings.
Fiscal Opportunities
The City can update other plans, such as their CIP to incorporate hazard information and include hazard mitigation actions and climate adaptation strategies that relate to infrastructure systems resiliency associated with the water and wastewater systems. Once projects related to hazard mitigation are approved, the recent CIP can be shared with the community on the City’s webpage. Capital investments and improvements related to seismic retrofits, cooling center upgrades, water supply systems, and WWTP upgrades should all be emphasized in the outreach materials as they are related to hazard mitigation. Additionally, given the prioritization of flooding mitigation projects, the City should apply for HMGP grants to fund implementation costs associated with key CIP projects, and related projects in the City’s mitigation strategy. These fiscal capabilities may be supported by City staff or augmented with Consultant staff.
Outreach Opportunities
The City can also expand their outreach capabilities related to the implementation of the 2021-2022 Stanislaus County MJHMP and the City of Modesto Annex. Specific enhancements may include continued public involvement through social media posts and advertisements focused on projects successes related to the Annex Mitigation Strategy, and focused outreach to under-represented and special-interest groups in the City. The City can also develop outreach kits for partner organizations. 4 MITIGATION STRATEGY
4.1 Goals and Objectives
The City of Modesto adopted the hazard mitigation goals and objectives developed by the HMPC and described in Section 5 Mitigation Strategy of the Base Plan. Like the Mitigation Strategy in the Base Plan, this section outlines the City’s roadmap for future hazard mitigation administration and implementation.
The purpose of the strategy is to reduce vulnerabilities from key priority hazards outlined in the risk assessment through regulatory tools and projects.
4.2 Continued Compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program The City has been an NFIP participating community since 1980. In addition to the mitigation actions identified herein the City will continue to comply with the NFIP. Floodplain management is under the purview of the Community & Economic Development Department and the City Engineer. This includes ongoing activities such as enforcing local floodplain development regulations, issuing permits for appropriate development in SFHAs and ensuring that this development is mitigated in accordance with the regulations. This will also include periodic reviews of the floodplain ordinance to ensure that it is clear and up to date and reflects new or revised flood hazard mapping. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 34
4.3 Mitigation Actions
The LPT for the City identified and prioritized the following new mitigation actions based on risk assessments, goals, and objectives. Background information as well as information on how the action will be implemented and administered, such as ideas for implementation, responsible office, partners, potential funding, estimated cost, and timeline also are described. Because the City did not participate in the 2017 LHMP the LPT did not have existing mitigation actions to review and did not provide status updates on past hazard mitigation planning efforts.
The mitigation strategy includes only those actions and projects which reflect the actual priorities and capacity of the jurisdiction to implement over the next five years covered by this plan. It should further be noted, that although a jurisdiction may not have specific projects identified for each significant (medium or high) hazard for the five-year coverage of this planning process, each jurisdiction has focused on identifying those projects which are realistic and reasonable for them to implement. Should future projects be identified for significant hazards where the implementing jurisdiction has the capacity to implement, the jurisdiction would add those projects to their Annex. The City also recognizes that other mitigation actions proposed in the County’s mitigation strategy will cover the significant hazards in the City that are not currently linked to a mitigation action.
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 35 Table 4-1 City of Modesto Mitigation Action Plan
ID
Goal(s)
and
Lifelines
Hazard(s)
Mitigated Description/Background/Benefits Lead Agency and Partners Cost Estimate and
Potential Funding Priority Timeline Status/Implementation Notes 1 Goals 1
and 5;
Safety
and
Security
Flood,
Dam
Incidents
Relocation of Sutter Treatment Primary
Facilities – The Sutter Treatment Primary
Facilities are located along the Tuolumne
River within the FEMA designated
floodplain. It experienced repeated
flooding several times previously. The
“Sutter Treatment Facility Feasibility
Study” that was finalized in April 2015
concluded that flood protection of the
Sutter Plant was not feasible. To avoid
future flooding, the Sutter Treatment
Primary Facilities will be demolished.
New facilities will be constructed 6.5
miles away at the Jennings Treatment
Plant Facilities, which are outside the
100-year FEMA floodplain along the San
Joaquin River.
The footprint of the old primary facilities
will be incorporated into the Tuolumne
River Regional Park Master Plan and
regraded to further reduce flood risk by
removing levees around the sludge
drying beds and by relocating the
emergency holding pond.
This project would avoid repeat flooding
of the Sutter Treatment Plant and
prevent sanitary sewer from flowing into
the Tuolumne River. The bottleneck that
the Sutter Treatment Plant causes on the
Tuolumne River can be removed to
reduce flood risk for residential homes
across the River from the Treatment
Plant, which also flooded in 1997.
City of
Modesto;
Tuolumne
River
Regional Park
JPA
$100.4 million;
FEMA (BRIC,
HMGP, HMA,
Central Valley
Project
Improvement Act
Habitat Restoration
Program,
Conservation
Reserve Program,
Cal OES/Prepare
CA Grants, Habitat
Conservation Fund,
Proposition 1
Watershed
Restoration Grant
Program, Wildlife
Conservation
Board Public
Access Program,
Proposition 68
Wildlife Corridor
and Fish Passage
Program, Central
Valley Tributaries
Program
High 5-10 years New in 2022
2 Goals 1,
4 and 5;
Safety
and
Security;
Food,
Flood
Tuolumne River & Carpenter Road
Bridge River Restoration Project –
A 1999 FEMA Flood Hazard Mitigation
Study identified that the constriction at
Carpenter Road on the Tuolumne River
was caused by the bridge and roadway
City of
Modesto;
Stanislaus
County,
Communities
along the
$29 million to $50
million (partial
removal – complete
removal);
FEMA (BRIC,
HMGP, HMA,
High 5-10 years New in 2022
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 36 ID
Goal(s)
and
Lifelines
Hazard(s)
Mitigated Description/Background/Benefits Lead Agency and Partners Cost Estimate and
Potential Funding Priority Timeline Status/Implementation Notes Water,
Shelter;
Health
and
Medical
embankment on the north side of the
river. The embankment could be
replaced by a “causeway” (lengthened
bridge). Additionally, the remaining
elevated land east of Carpenter roadway
embankment (former Carpenter Eastern
Landfill) and the elevated land to the
west (existing Carpenter Western
Landfill) would have to be removed and
regraded to increase the cross-sectional
flow area, to eliminate the constriction on
the river and lower flood elevations and
reduce the repeated flooding of the
neighborhood adjacent and upstream of
these flood flow obstacles. Homes in the
adjacent neighborhood “Robertson Road
Neighborhood” have experienced
flooding in 1950, 1955, 1969, and 1997.
A hydraulic analysis is also underway to
determine the boundary of the new 100-
year floodplain as if the project had been
completed. This analysis would also
determine the number of homes that
would be protected (not flooded) during
the 100-year flood event.
The project would reduce the overall
flooding risk and the risk of repeated
flooding of adjacent and upstream
disadvantaged communities.
Tuolumne
River,
Tuolumne
River
Regional Park
JPA,
Community
Organizations
and NGOs
Central Valley
Project
Improvement Act
Habitat Restoration
Program,
Conservation
Reserve Program,
Cal OES/Prepare
CA Grants, Habitat
Conservation Fund,
Proposition 1
Watershed
Restoration Grant
Program, Wildlife
Conservation
Board Public
Access Program,
Proposition 68
Wildlife Corridor
and Fish Passage
Program, Central
Valley Tributaries
Program
3 Goals 1
and 5;
Safety
and
Security
MultiHazard:
Dam
Incidents,
Flood
Tuolumne River Floodway Capacity
Increase –
The problem with the floodway capacity
downstream of Don Pedro is that the
current operation objective releases of
9,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) (or nondamaging flow) limit the preemptive releases needed to minimize a massive
uncontrolled spill from the reservoir,
which in the past has resulted in
repeated flooding of disadvantaged
communities that line the edges of the
City of
Modesto;
USACE,
Central Valley
Flood
Protection
Board, DWR,
MID, TID,
Stanislaus
County, City
of Ceres,
Communities
along the
TBD in Phase 1 in
years 1-3 of
project;
FEMA (BRIC,
HMGP, HMA,
Central Valley
Project
Improvement Act
Habitat Restoration
Program,
Conservation
Reserve Program,
Cal OES/Prepare
High 1-3 years New in 2022
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 37 ID
Goal(s)
and
Lifelines
Hazard(s)
Mitigated Description/Background/Benefits Lead Agency and Partners Cost Estimate and
Potential Funding Priority Timeline Status/Implementation Notes Tuolumne River as well as the City of
Modesto Sutter Avenue Wastewater
Treatment Plant. Some of these
communities have experienced repeated
flooding in 1950,1955, 1969 and 1997.
The project aims to increase the
floodway capacity downstream of Don
Pedro to match or exceed the maximumcontrolled release level of approximately 15,000 cfs upstream of Modesto, and
25,000 cfs below the Dry Creek
confluence, in order to grant Don Pedro
Reservoir operators more flexibilities to
reduce flood risk, increase water supply
and address impacts caused by climate
change in the San Joaquin Valley.
Tuolumne
River,
Tuolumne
River
Regional Park
JPA,
Agricultural
Interests and
other private
landowners,
Community
Organizations
and NGOs,
CA Grants, Habitat
Conservation Fund,
Proposition 1
Watershed
Restoration Grant
Program, Wildlife
Conservation
Board Public
Access Program,
Proposition 68
Wildlife Corridor
and Fish Passage
Program, Central
Valley Tributaries
Program
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 38 5 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
Moving forward, the City will use the mitigation action table in the previous section to track the progress on the implementation of each project. Implementation of the plan overall is discussed in Section 6 in the Base Plan.
5.1 Incorporation into Existing Planning Mechanisms
The information contained within this plan, including results from the Vulnerability Assessment, and the Mitigation Strategy will be used by the City to help inform updates and the development of local plans, programs and policies. The City’s Public Works Department may use the hazard information when implementing forestry, street, and solid waste division projects. The Utilities Department may utilize the hazard information when implementing water, wastewater reclamation, and environmental projects that are part of the City’s Capital Improvement Program. For example, the City has several groundwater well improvement, water storage, and pump station projects underway or completed within the last year, based on inputs received from the City’s LPT.
Similarly, the City’s Community and Economic Development Department, including the Building Safety and Neighborhood Preservation Division (Building Division), Community Development Division, Economic Development, Land Development and Engineering (LDE), Planning Division, and Transportation Engineering and Design (TED) Division may utilize the hazard information when completing the comprehensive update to the City’s Urban Area General Plan (Modesto 2050). The natural hazard information can directly inform the City’s Vulnerability Assessment underway that looks at the potential impacts from flooding, extreme temperature, drought, and severe weather hazards, including how climate change may increase the threat and how the City can build long-term resiliency. The City’s Community and Economic Development Department can also use the hazard information when reviewing a site plan or other types of development applications. The City will also incorporate this MJHMP into the Safety Element of their General Plan, as recommended by AB 2140 and as part of the current and comprehensive Urban Area General Plan update.
As noted in Section 6 of the Base Plan, the City of Modesto LPT representatives will report on efforts to integrate the hazard mitigation plan into local plans, programs and policies and will report on these efforts at the annual LPT plan review meeting.
5.2 Monitoring, Evaluation and Updating the Plan
The City will follow the procedures to monitor, review, and update this plan in accordance with Stanislaus County as outlined in Section 6 of the Base Plan. The city will continue to involve the public in mitigation, as described in Section 6.3 of the Base Plan. The Police Chief, Director of Community and Economic Development, and Battalion Chief will be responsible for representing the City in the County LPT, and for coordination with City staff and departments during plan updates. The City realizes it is important to review the plan regularly and update it every five years in accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act Requirements as well as other State of California requirements. #1..
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2022-2027 Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex C: City of Modesto
Stanislaus County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan | 2022-2027 Update Page 39 This page is intentionally left blank.
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CITY OF MODESTO
COMMITTEE AGENDA REPORT
DATE OF MEETING:
February 13, 2023
Date: November 15, 2022
TO: Safety and Communities Committee
Chris Ricci, Chair
Rosa Escutia-Braaton, Vice-Chair
Jeremiah Williams, Member
THROUGH: Joseph P. Lopez, City Manager
FROM: Alan Ernst, Fire Chief
SUBJECT: Adoption of the 2022 California Fire Code
CONTACT: Darin Jesberg, Deputy Fire Chief, [email protected], 209-577-9139 DESCRIPTION:
Consider an Ordinance repealing and replacing Chapter 1 of Title 3 of the Modesto Municipal Code amending the City’s Fire Code to adopt the 2022 California Fire Code and forwarding to Council for approval. (Funding: Not Applicable)
STRATEGIC PLAN ELEMENT:
This action supports the City of Modesto 2020-2025 Strategic Plan focus on quality of life under Goal A: Improve Community Safety.
BACKGROUND:
The California Building Standards Commission1 (CBSC) adopted the California Fire Code in July 2022. This code was designed and promulgated to be adopted by ordinance by local jurisdictions as an enforceable set of regulations for the safeguarding of life and property from fire and explosion hazards arising from the storage, handling and use of hazardous substances, materials and from conditions hazardous to life or property in the occupancy of buildings and premises.
DISCUSSION:
This code establishes the minimum fire and life safety requirements for the State of California and is automatically adopted by state law. It is reviewed and updated at an interval of every three years. In addition, each local jurisdiction must adopt rules and requirements for 1 California Building Standards Commission, 2022 California Fire Code #2..
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Safety and Communities Committee, February 13, 2023
Adoption of the 2022 California Fire Code