Decarbonization Goal Analysis
1 November 6, 2025
Danielle Lee | Chief Sustainability and Resiliency Officer Rebecca Lucky | Sustainability Manager
Hailey Weinberg, Alicia Fennell | Cascadia Consulting Group 2 • November 2024: the City Council approved undertaking a 2035 and 2040 decarbonization goal analysis
• June 2025: Preliminary information was presented to the Council Sustainability Committee (CSC) that included:
o Projected emissions through 2045
o Emission reductions from regional, state, and federal policies and programs
o Legislative changes (e.g., Clean Cars Act)
o Preliminary list of local emission-reducing actions to model Background
3 • CSC Feedback:
o Supported the list of local actions presented
o Population projections and corresponding emissions
forecast seemed high
- The project team has updated the population growth
factors
• Recommendations:
o Review the potential emissions reduction of five local actions
o Approve the remaining five local actions to model
o Direct the project team to develop a five-year roadmap aimed at achieving the 2045 decarbonization goal
Background Continued
4 Results of five local
emissions-reduction
actions
5 What is this analysis? The Decarbonization Goal Analysis is an emission projection model used to forecast greenhouse
gas emissions (emissions) through 2045 and the impacts of climate action interventions, such as policies or programs.
How are emissions forecasted? Emissions are projected
through 2045 using the City's 2022 community emissions
inventory and population/employment growth.
Analysis Overview
Emissions Projection Scenarios
6 Emissions are forecasted
assuming no change in
climate intervention
actions in the public or
private sectors.
Business-As-Usual (BAU)
Considers the impacts of
federal, state, or regional
policies, and expected
electric vehicle market
trends.
Adjusted Business-As-Usual
(ABAU)
Will model the impact of
10 key decarbonization
actions, which may occur
at the local level.
Local Impact Analysis
7 Local Action Modeling
• Tonight’s presentation features initial
modeling results for 5 of these local actions
• The modeled actions will assist in
evaluating the effort needed to reach the
City's decarbonization goal
• The project team will also present a list of
the remaining five local actions that are
under consideration for modeling
Emissions Reductions – Local Actions
8 Results of BAU & ABAU Modeling
Together, these policies reduce BAU emissions 62.2% in 2045 Emission Forecast and Goal Analysis 2035 2040 2045
MT CO2e MT CO2e MT CO2e
BAU emissions 478,112 489,795 500,980
Electric vehicle (EV) market trends (56,811) (83,092) (110,838) Bay Area Air District Rules 9-4 and 9-6 (45,306) (79,963) (107,476) CA Low Carbon Fuel Standard (36,036) (36,861) (37,645)
CA Renewables Portfolio Standard (22,884) (37,328) (52,753) SVCE Clean Electricity Commitments (17,643) (9,140) -
SB 1383: Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (2,460) (2,516) (2,570) CA Green Building Standards Code (250) (226) (199)
Emissions reduction from all ABAU policies (181,392) (249,126) (311,480) Percentage reduction from BAU emissions 37.9% 50.9% 62.2% ABAU emissions 296,720 240,670 189,500
9 Results of the Modeling of Five Local Actions
Mountain View Emission Forecast & Goal Analysis 2035 2040 2045 MT CO2e MT CO2e MT CO2e
BAU emissions 478,112 489,795 500,980
ABAU emissions 296,720 240,670 189,500
Mountain View Reach codes (adopted in September) (9,233) (6,637) - Outreach, education, and incentives to encourage building electrification (5,016) (4,037) (2,373)
Transportation Demand Management ordinance (underway) (175) (199) (190) Active Transportation Plan (underway) (282) (229) (173) Implement mixed-use zoning & transit-oriented development in existing and in-progress plans (1,506) (1,224) (926)
Emissions reduction impact of all five modeled local actions (16,212) (12,326) (3,662) Percentage reduction in the emissions gap 5.5% 5.1% 1.9% Remaining emissions 280,508 228,344 185,838
Modeled Emissions and Emissions Reductions
10 11
Remaining Emissions Sources
On-road vehicles
make up 65% of
the remaining
emissions in 2045
12 Approve the remaining
five local emissions-
reduction actions
13 Proposed Local Actions to Model
Reducing Emissions from Gas-Powered Passenger Vehicles
Expand EV charging infrastructure at existing multifamily properties through policies and programs 1
Outreach, marketing, and education to encourage the adoption of EVs2 Continue to implement parking management strategies that eliminate parking requirements for affordable and residential developments within various Precise Plan areas
3 Reducing Landfilled Waste
Reducing Natural Gas from Buildings
14 Proposed Local Actions to Model Continued
Time-of-sale requirements that could be explored in the next five years, which involve requiring an escrow deposit for energy improvements during a property sale, like Berkeley’s Building Emissions Savings Ordinance 4 Implement the City’s Zero Waste Plan5
15 Direct the project team to
develop a five-year
decarbonization roadmap
focused on achieving the 2045
decarbonization goal
16 • To reach its decarbonization goal, the City will need to dedicate significant resources, take bold legislative action, and engage in ambitious regional collaboration
• The roadmap will be an actionable five-year plan that identifies high-priority next steps to move the City towards its decarbonization goal. The roadmap will include both modeled and un-modeled local actions.
• Staff will update the modeling as changes occur in other sectors and will continue to monitor the feasibility of actions every five years
Five-Year Roadmap
17 • Local actions modeled thus far achieve a 2% reduction of the 189,500 remaining emissions in 2045
o Additional modeled actions are expected to yield similar results o Accelerating the City’s decarbonization goal to either 2035 or 2040 will be challenging
• The goal of 2045 remains both ambitious and pragmatic • Allows time to adapt to the changing legislative landscape • Ensures a feasible and equitable approach to meeting the City’s goal 2045 Goal Remains Ambitious
18 Remaining Emissions Sources
On-road vehicles are 65%
of the remaining
emissions in 2045; natural
gas is about 6%.
19 • Local actions remain valuable to addressing climate change
• A volatile environment for emissions-reducing legislation is creating uncertainty:
o Potential delays in prohibiting the sale of gas-fired space and water heating equipment in the Bay
Area
o Moratorium on Reach Codes
o Reversal of the Clean Cars Act
o Sunset of tax incentives for electric vehicles and
electric building equipment
Impacts of Regional, State, and Federal Actions
20 • Bay Area Air District 9-4 and 9-6 Rules would
prohibit the sale of gas-fired water and space
heating equipment in the Bay Area starting in 2027
• Concept Paper for potential amendments was
released October 2025 to address affordability and
implementation challenges.
• Staff is preparing comments on proposed
amendments to encourage implementation of the
rules and support equitable decarbonization. If
amendments are adopted, the modeling will be
updated.
Air District Rules Prohibiting the Sale of Gas-Fired Equipment Expected
reduction from Air
District Rules is
107,476 Tons in
2045
21 • AB 130 prohibits cities and counties from adopting residential reach codes for the next six years
• If Air District rules are delayed, Mountain View’s
Reach Codes can provide over 30,000 tons of
reductions in 2045
Moratorium on Reach Code Adoption
22 • Sent a letter of non-support to the state
• Accelerated the adoption of 2026 Reach Codes before AB 130 takes effect • Encourages the replacement or new installation of air conditioners to include heat pump technology
• Requires electrical infrastructure if installing gas-fired equipment • Became a Steering Committee member of the newly formed Local Government Climate Policy Alliance that includes other cities from across the state • Monitors legislative changes and seeks to take action where appropriate to advocate, influence, or draft legislation to further local climate goals City’s Response to Moratorium on Reach Codes
23 • This year, the Environmental Protection Agency
revoked California’s waiver to implement the
Clean Cars Act
• Clean Cars would have required all new passenger
cars sold in California to be electric vehicles. This
was projected to reduce 263,595 tons of emissions
in Mountain View
• If still in place, the gap would be 34,370 tons of
emissions to reduce locally instead of the current
gap of 189,500 tons
Reversal of the Clean Cars Act
Preliminary List for Five-Year Decarbonization Roadmap
24 Transportation Actions Incl. in Model
Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Ordinance
Employer TDM Requirements
Expand and Electrify Mountain View’s Shuttle Service
Expand Multifamily EV Charging Infrastructure
Outreach and marketing for EVs
Outreach and incentives for E-Bikes and E-Scooters
Mobility hubs and micro-mobility opportunities
Active Transportation Plan
Mixed-Use Zoning and Transit-Oriented Development
Continue to implement parking management strategies
Zero Emission Delivery Services Programs
Preliminary List for Five-Year Decarbonization Roadmap
25 Buildings Actions Incl. in Model?
Implement previously adopted Reach Codes
Explore Time-of-Sale Requirements
Outreach and marketing for building electrification
Encourage participation in carbon-free electricity
Adopt a Goal for the End of Natural Gas Flow
Evaluate Electrical Grid Capacity
Explore adopting Building Performance Standards
Preliminary List for Five-Year Decarbonization Roadmap
26 Zero Waste Actions Incl. in Model?
Implement the City’s Zero Waste Plan
Cross-cutting Actions Incl. in Model?
Advocacy and legislation to promote local emissions reductions Local and regional collaboration and partnerships
Explore financing and funding options
Note: Bolded actions have already been modeled.
Ecosystems Actions Incl. in Model?
Enhance the urban forest
Implement natural areas conservation and restoration
27 Recommendation
28 • Review the potential emissions reduction of five
local actions:
o Reach Codes
o Outreach, education, and incentives to
encourage building electrification
o Transportation Demand Management
Ordinance
o Active Transportation Plan
o Mixed-use zoning and transit-oriented
development
Recommendation
29 • Approve the remaining five local actions to model:
o Expand access to EV charging at existing
multifamily properties
o Outreach, marketing and education to purchase
and use EVs
o Continued implementation of parking
management strategies
o Explore time-of-sale requirements to encourage
building electrification
o Continued implementation of the City’s Zero
Waste Plan
• Direct the project team to develop a five-year
roadmap aimed at achieving the 2045 decarbonization
goal instead of a 2035 or 2040 goal year
Recommendation Continued
30 • Project team will:
o Present the Climate Vulnerability Assessment to
the CSC on December 1 for feedback and direction
o Model the remaining five local actions that will be
presented to the CSC in early 2026
o Develop the five-year roadmap to be presented to
the CSC before being brought to the City Council for
approval in 2026
Next Steps
31 Thank you