CITY OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW DECARBONIZATION
GOAL ANALYSIS
Prepared by Cascadia Consulting Group
May 2026
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
2 Analysis Overview
Cascadia conducted a comprehensive analysis to support the City’s implementation and evaluation of its adopted 2045 decarbonization goal. This analysis includes forecasting future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across various scenarios. It includes developing a business-as-usual projection and an adjusted business-as-usual emissions reduction scenario that accounts for existing regional and state programs and policies. These forecasts provide the City with a clearer understanding of the residual emissions that will require mitigation through localized projects, programs, and policies to achieve the adopted 2045 goal.
Key findings from the analysis are as follows:
• Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario: In the absence of federal, state, or local climate initiatives, emissions in Mountain View are projected to increase due to anticipated changes in population and employment within Mountain View. Emissions are expected to rise by 13% by 2045.
• Adjusted Business as Usual (ABAU) Scenario: Incorporating the estimated effects of significant state and regional policies, Mountain View's total emissions are projected to decrease by 59% by 2045.
• Local Impact Scenario: Considering nine critical local decarbonization initiatives proposed for implementation within the next five years, Mountain View's total emissions are expected to decrease by an additional 7%, leading to a total community-wide reduction of 66% by 2045.
Details on the analysis methodology, modeling assumptions, and specific emissions-reduction estimates are outlined below. Additionally, the subsequent section explores the remaining emissions gap and the scale of local action needed to achieve the City’s adopted 2045 decarbonization goal.
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
3 Forecast Growth Rates
The model employed projected demographic changes to forecast future emissions in Mountain View under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. The key factors considered include:
1. The resident population of Mountain View
2. The workforce population in Mountain View
3. The total service population, encompassing individuals who either reside or are employed in Mountain View
Table 1. Projected changes in Mountain View’s demographics Demographic 2022 2045
Population (1) 84,199 86,539
Employment (2) 80,980 98,597
Service Population (3) 165,179 185,136
Data Sources:
1. Data provided by the City of Mountain View for the years 2020 and 2022, with projections developed for the period from 2022 to 2045, utilizing the anticipated population growth in Santa Clara County, as forecasted by the California Department of Finance, to serve as a proxy for growth in Mountain View.
2. Data sourced from the City of Mountain View for the years 2020 and 2022, with forecasts extending from 2022 to 2032 based on projected employment growth in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area, as indicated by the California Employment Development Office, to act as a proxy for employment growth in Mountain View.
3. The projected population and employment data for Mountain View have been combined to generate a comprehensive analysis of anticipated growth within Mountain View.
The following information outlines the specific growth factors used for each emission source in the forecast of emissions for Mountain View through 2045.
Table 2. Growth factors used for Mountain View's emission forecast Emission Source Sector Growth Factor
Electricity Residential Population
Commercial Employment
Supply of Potable Water Population
Natural Gas All Service Population
On-Road Vehicles - Service Population
Off-Road Vehicles - Service Population
Waste Generation - Service Population
Wastewater - Service Population
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
4 Projected Emissions Reductions - Regional and State Actions When accounting for the impacts of modeled state and regional policies under the ABAU scenario, Mountain View’s emissions are projected to decline over the coming decades relative to the BAU scenario. However, these policies alone are not expected to reduce community-wide emissions sufficiently to achieve the City’s adopted 2045 carbon neutrality goal.
Table 3 summarizes projected emissions and reductions by 2045 under the BAU and ABAU scenarios, along with the key assumptions used to forecast emissions for each modeled policy. The blue rows near the bottom of the table present the projected future emissions after accounting for modeled policies and electric vehicle (EV) market trends.
The policies included in this analysis are not intended to represent a comprehensive inventory of all national, state, or regional policies that may influence emissions in Mountain View. Rather, they reflect a set of key policies anticipated to have a significant effect on communitywide GHG emissions across sectors and to support progress toward the City’s adopted 2045 decarbonization goal. The analysis also represents a point-in-time assessment of the current policy landscape and accounts for the interactions among various policies. If one of the measures in the ABAU analysis is modified or eliminated, the emissions projections of other measures may change.
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
5 Table 3. Summary of ABAU emission reductions
State and
Regional
Emission
Reduction
Actions
Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Bay Area Air
District Rules 9-
4 and 9-6
Overview: As of 2023, the Bay Area Air District has amended Rules 9-4 and 9-6 to mandate that when natural gas water heaters and furnaces are replaced, they must be switched to zero-nitrous oxide (NOx) alternatives, such as heat pumps, beginning in the year 2027.
Key Assumptions:
• Water heaters and furnaces have an equipment lifecycle of 15 years. • The transition to new equipment begins in 2027, and therefore 100% of equipment will be upgraded to electric by 2042, based on the useful equipment life of 15 years. • By 2027, only zero NOx water heaters can be sold or installed in the Bay Area. • By 2029, only zero NOx furnaces can be sold or installed in the Bay Area. • By 2031, only zero NOx large commercial water heaters can be sold or installed in the Bay Area. (107,476)
Electric vehicle
market trends
Overview: Despite changes in federal and state policies mandating the sale of electric vehicles, California's residents are expected to continue transitioning to EVs as they purchase new vehicles.
Key Assumptions:
• As of the first quarter of 2025, the zero-emissions vehicle sales proportion for Santa Clara County was 41%.
• The analysis assumes that the EV sales rate will remain constant over time, given tensions between various factors that could increase or decrease the rate. Examples of factors that are likely to change EV adoption rates include uncertainty regarding future technology costs and accessibility (for charging infrastructure and/or vehicles), future policy landscape, and future financing information, such as rebate availability.
• There is minimal research regarding heavy-duty electric vehicle sales proportions, so the model estimates that this metric reaches 10% by 2050.
(110,538)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
6 State and
Regional
Emission
Reduction
Actions
Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Assembly Bill
1346 (Small Off-
Road Engine
Ban)
Overview: AB1346 bans the sale of new gasoline-powered small off-road engines (SORE) in California after the 2024 model year, with a goal of achieving zero emissions by 2035. This ban applies to equipment with a horsepower rating of 25 or less and primarily targets lawn and garden equipment, generators, and specialty vehicles. This policy does not apply to stationary, construction, and farm equipment, to vehicles with less than 175 horsepower, or to diesel-powered engines.
Key Assumptions:
• The analysis used an assumption that this policy applies to the following categories: gasoline commercial equipment, gasoline lawn and garden equipment, and gasoline recreational equipment.
• Starting in 2026, 100% of sales of affected off-road equipment types will be electric. • Average turnover rate for off-road equipment is 15 years. • This policy will only apply to 50% of gasoline commercial and recreational equipment. This is because the policy applies only to small engines, and the baseline emission inventory does not differentiate between small and large pieces of equipment.
(4,832)
Senate Bill 100
(California
Renewables
Portfolio
Standard)
Overview: The state’s renewable portfolio standard mandates that eligible renewable and zero- carbon resources supply 100% of retail electricity sales to California end-use customers by 2045.
Key Assumptions:
• All electric utilities will reach 100% zero-carbon emissions by 2045. This is modeled as a straight line from each utility’s 2022 carbon intensity.
(52,753)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
7 State and
Regional
Emission
Reduction
Actions
Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Silicon Valley
Clean Energy’s
Clean Electricity
Commitments
Overview: Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) has pledged to achieve zero-emission electricity for its customers by the year 2025. This commitment will have a significant impact on electricity emissions in Mountain View. Consequently, this model incorporates updated blended emission factors for both residential and non-residential sectors to accurately reflect SVCE's dedication to providing clean electricity.
Key Assumptions:
• Blended emission factors by sector were calculated by Silicon Valley Clean Energy using 2022 residential and non-residential utility breakdowns.
• SVCE’s electricity will be emission-free by 2025.
• Electricity from PG&E and Direct Access will be emission-free by 2045.
-
Low Carbon Fuel
Standard
Overview: California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by the year 2030, achieved through the adoption of low-carbon and renewable alternatives. It is important to note that California was obligated to attain a 10% reduction by the year 2020. Additionally, conventional jet fuel is not encompassed within the provisions of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
Key Assumptions:
• CA achieved a 10% reduction by 2020, and the carbon intensity of fuels will continue to decrease linearly through 2030.
(37,133)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
8 State and
Regional
Emission
Reduction
Actions
Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Senate Bill 1383
(Short-Lived
Climate
Pollutants)
Overview: The regulations established under SB 1383 became effective on January 1, 2022. These regulations are designed to achieve a 50% diversion of organic waste from landfills compared to 2014 levels by 2020, with an additional target of 75% diversion by 2025.
Key Assumptions:
• An additional reduction of 25% in landfilled organic waste from 2014 levels is projected by the year 2025, contingent upon the successful diversion of this organic waste for composting purposes. This forecasted reduction equates to a total 50% reduction from 2022 levels, assuming California has achieved the mandated 50% reduction by 2020, as stipulated by Senate Bill 1383.
(2,570)
California Green
Building
Standards Code
(CALGreen 2019,
2022)
Overview: CALGreen is California’s mandatory green building standards code and includes additional voluntary measures that local jurisdictions may adopt. It is Part 11 of the California Building Standards Code (Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations). The 2019 updates to California’s building standards, including the Building Energy Efficiency Standards, were projected to reduce energy use in new residential buildings by approximately 50 percent and in new nonresidential buildings by approximately 30 percent compared to prior code cycles. The 2019 standards became effective on January 1, 2020.
It should be noted that recent updates to state and local building codes include expanded requirements for building electrification in new construction. Because these code changes were not yet effective at the time the analysis was conducted, their impacts were not quantified within the emissions forecast. Consequently, actual future emissions reductions from the building sector may exceed those reflected in the modeled scenarios.
Key Assumptions:
• Assume 2022 as the baseline and assume new construction after 2022 is 50% more efficient for residential and 30% for non-residential energy use.
(199)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
9 Business-as-usual (BAU) emissions – emissions forecast based on Mountain View’s 2022 GHG emissions profile,1 assuming no climate action (programs, policies, standards) at the local, state, or federal level. 496,716
Emissions reduction impact of all ABAU policies (315,500) Adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) – Emissions that would need to be reduced by local action (or additional federal, state, and regional policies).
181,216
Percentage reduction from BAU emissions 59%
1 While the City will be using a rolling average approach for emissions reporting moving forward, 2022 was used as the forecasting year for this analysis because it was the most recent inventory data available at the time the analysis was conducted. Information on the rolling average approach can be found in the 2023 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Memorandum to the Council Sustainability Committee:
https://mountainview.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=7353846&GUID=65AC5BD8-1CCF-4749-89D1-752ED52E9904&Options=&Search=.
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
10 Projected Emissions Reductions - Local Actions
While strong federal, state, and regional legislation is critical to achieving Mountain View’s decarbonization goals through mandated technology improvements, clean equipment standards, vehicle electrification requirements, and the transition to renewable energy sources, local action remains essential to advancing and sustaining communitywide emissions reductions. The federal and state governments are positioned to drive large-scale market transformation and deliver the most significant and accelerated reductions across sectors. However, local governments play a vital role in enabling the successful implementation of these broader policies at the community level.
To support this effort, the City is developing a Five-Year Decarbonization Plan that will include both new and ongoing actions to reduce emissions. The analysis incorporates estimates for several proposed actions anticipated for inclusion in the Plan. Collectively, these local initiatives are projected to provide an additional 7 percent reduction in emissions beyond the ABAU scenario.
While modest relative to the reductions driven by state and federal policy, these actions are important for establishing enabling infrastructure, accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies, addressing emissions sources not fully covered by the existing policy landscape, and filling implementation gaps within the community. Local actions also provide an important level of redundancy and resilience within the City’s decarbonization strategy by helping maintain progress toward emissions reductions if broader policies are delayed, weakened, or rescinded over time.
Together, these efforts position Mountain View to maximize the benefits of broader decarbonization policies while advancing progress toward the City’s adopted 2045 decarbonization goal.
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
11 Table 4. Summary of local action emission reductions Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Reach codes Overview: Implement the City's reach codes to enhance electrification of existing building renovations and appliance replacements, requiring upgrades to air conditioning systems to heat pumps upon replacement, as well as electrical upgrades and updates to ensure electric readiness.
This action supports and facilitates the successful implementation of broader Bay Area Air District regulations. However, it is not projected to generate significant additional emissions reductions by 2045, as the Air District regulations are expected to drive electrification of space and water heating within the community.
Nevertheless, this measure provides an important complementary and contingency function within the City’s decarbonization plan. In the event that the Air District regulations are delayed, weakened, or rescinded, the action would still deliver meaningful emissions reductions independently. The analysis estimates that this measure could reduce emissions by approximately 30,849 metric tons in 2045 under a scenario in which the Air District regulations are not implemented.
Key Assumptions:
• 100% of AC units will be converted to heat pumps by 2045. • 13% of residential electricity is used for air conditioning (California average). • Heat pumps are on average 20% more efficient than older AC systems. • Approximately 80% of natural gas used for space heating will shift to electricity once a heat pump is installed.
-
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
12 Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Time-of-sale
requirements
Overview: Establish a regional partnership to examine and implement time-of-sale requirements, similar to Berkeley’s Building Emissions Savings Ordinance. This initiative would entail that home sellers, buyers, or both contribute to an escrow fund designated to support electrification projects within a specified timeframe set by the buyer.
This action can support and facilitate the successful implementation of broader Bay Area Air District regulations. However, it is not projected to generate substantial additional emissions reductions by 2045, as the Air District regulations are expected to be the primary driver of space- and water- heating electrification within the community. In addition, the analysis indicates that implementation of the Local Reach Codes would result in greater overall emissions reductions.
Nevertheless, this measure could serve as an important complementary strategy to maintain and strengthen progress on building electrification if the Air District regulations are delayed, weakened, or rescinded. Under a scenario in which the Air District regulations are not implemented, the analysis estimates that this measure could result in approximately 3,178 metric tons of emissions reductions in 2045.
Key Assumptions:
• 255 homes are sold per year in Mountain View (based on 2025 sales data). • 100% of homes sold will participate in an energy audit and partial electrification/energy use upgrades.
• Average of 59% energy reduction when transitioning mixed-fuel homes’ existing appliances to all- electric, efficient appliances.
(1,173)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
13 Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Existing building
electrification
support
Overview: Partner with SVCE and BayREN to provide education and outreach, targeted rebates and financial incentives, technical assistance, and permitting guidance to support residents and businesses with reach codes. This might include streamlining permitting systems or expanding on Mountain View’s “Year of the Water Heater” program.
This action supports and facilitates the successful implementation of broader Bay Area Air District regulations. However, it is not projected to generate significant additional emissions reductions by 2045, as the Air District regulations are expected to drive space and water heating electrification within the community.
Nevertheless, this measure provides an important complementary and contingency function within the City’s decarbonization plan. In the event that the Air District regulations are delayed, weakened, or rescinded, the action would still deliver meaningful emissions reductions independently. The analysis estimates that this measure could reduce emissions by approximately 16,326 metric tons in 2045 under a scenario in which the Air District regulations are not implemented.
Key Assumptions:
• 1% annual shift from natural gas to electricity will occur from various electrification upgrades and retrofits.
(2,373)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
14 Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Transportation
Demand
Management
(TDM)
ordinance
Overview: Implement a Transportation Demand Management (TDM) ordinance that establishes definitive trip reduction targets and offers a flexible array of strategies aimed at decreasing single- occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips throughout the city. The forthcoming TDM ordinance will specify requirements for new developments, including changes of use and renovation projects that are projected to generate 200 or more new net Average Daily Trips (ADT).
Key Assumptions:
• Average of 30% required reduction in VMT from new projects. • Approximately 10% of new VMT results from new developments.
(190)
Multi-family EV
charging
Overview: Expand access to EV charging at existing multifamily properties by developing policies, incentives, and potential requirements that increase the availability of on-site or nearby charging and pursue additional public charging opportunities near multifamily properties.
Key Assumptions:
• 55% of housing units in Mountain View are multi-family. • 25% of multi-family units will have adequate charging access by 2031, and 95% will have access by 2045.
• Assume that approximately 67% of multi-family residents would consider buying an EV if they had charging in their building, according to a nationwide study.2
(22,217)
2 New survey reveals U.S. multifamily residents are 2.5x more likely to own an EV if they have charging at home City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
15 Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
EV outreach Overview: Partner with Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) and other local organizations or groups to provide education, outreach, and technical assistance to encourage residents to purchase an EV.
Key Assumptions:
• 75 rebates are provided per year that facilitate a transition to an EV that replaces an existing gasoline vehicle.
(4,111)
Complete
streets and
active
transportation
infrastructure
Overview: Support and accelerate the buildout of Mountain View’s bicycle and pedestrian network with a Complete Streets approach. Complete all near-term priority projects identified in the Active Transportation Plan by 2035. Prioritize projects that connect homes to schools, major employers, and transit. Ensure all new and reconstructed streets support year-round active transportation by incorporating bike lanes, sidewalks, safe crossings, and shade trees, as appropriate.
Key Assumptions:
• 5% increase in sidewalk miles resulting from the City’s Active Transportation Plan. • 10% increase in miles of bike lanes resulting from the City’s Active Transportation Plan.
(173) Mixed-use
zoning and
transit-oriented
development
Overview: Support mixed-use zoning and transit-oriented development by implementing previously adopted and in progress plans.
Key Assumptions:
• 4.8 dwelling units/acre in Mountain View.
• 17,000 new units will result from the Moffett Boulevard and R3 Plans.
(926)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
16 Local Actions Key Assumptions in Model Metric
Tons
Reduced
by 2045
Implement
natural areas
conservation
and restoration
Overview: Implement conservation and restoration actions from the City of Mountain View’s Biodiversity and Urban Forest Plan to enhance natural areas' ability to sequester emissions.
Key Assumptions:
• 53 acres will be restored from mud flats to tidal marshes. • The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project will restore 34 acres. (121)
Adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) emissions – Emissions that would need to be reduced by local action (or additional federal, state, and regional policies).
181,216
Emissions reduction impact of local actions (31,285)
Remaining Emissions – Emissions that would need to be reduced by additional local action (or additional federal, state, and regional policies) to reach Mountain View’s emission reduction targets. 149,931
Percentage reduction from BAU emissions 66%
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
17 Policy Compliance and Implementation
It is imperative to acknowledge that the current legislative environment, including regional, state, and federal policies, is subject to rapid change. For instance, in 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rescinded California's Clean Air Act waiver, which had permitted the state to implement the 2035 Clean Cars regulations (Advanced Clean Cars II). These regulations would have mandated that all passenger vehicles sold in California be fully electric by 2035.
Given the uncertainty around potential adherence to and enforcement of existing policies, this model incorporates adjustable parameters for "policy compliance." Users can modify the compliance percentage for each policy in the ABAU or Local scenario. This feature is designed specifically for Mountain View, enabling stakeholders to examine various scenarios and gain insights into potential obstacles the City may encounter in its decarbonization efforts. The previously outlined projected emission reduction figures assume a compliance rate of 100%.
Additionally, the following illustration underscores the critical role of policy compliance in achieving emission-reduction targets. The residual emissions, which necessitate local intervention, are substantially influenced by the compliance levels of the key policies identified and analyzed in this study.
Table 5. ABAU emissions under different policy compliance scenarios Scenario 2022
Metric Tons
2045
Metric Tons
Business-as-usual (BAU)
440,211
496,716
All modeled state and regional actions in the
adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) – 50%
compliance
260,289
All modeled state and regional actions in the
adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) – 100%
compliance
181,216
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
18 Decarbonization Planning
A key objective of the decarbonization analysis is to support implementation and ongoing evaluation of the City’s adopted 2045 carbon neutrality goal. Figure 1 illustrates the scale of emissions reductions required to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 and highlights the remaining emissions gap after accounting for projected growth, existing regional and state regulations, and modeled local actions.
Under the BAU forecast, communitywide greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase from approximately 440,000 metric tons in 2022 to 496,716 metric tons by 2045, primarily due to anticipated population and employment growth.
After incorporating the projected impacts of eight modeled regional and state actions—including Senate Bill (SB) 100 renewable electricity requirements, Silicon Valley Clean Energy clean electricity commitments, California Green Building Standards Code updates, Bay Area Air Quality Management District Rules 9-4 and 9-6, SB 1383 organic waste regulations, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, EV market adoption trends, and Assembly Bill (AB) 1346 small off road engine regulation—the adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) forecast declines substantially by 2045. Collectively, these regional and state measures are projected to reduce emissions by approximately 315,500 metric tons by 2045, resulting in remaining emissions of approximately 181,216 metric tons under the ABAU scenario.
Figure 1 also illustrates the cumulative reductions in emissions associated with the nine modeled local actions. These actions include Reach Codes, building electrification outreach and incentives, transportation demand management measures, complete streets and active transportation investments, mixed-use and transit-oriented development, EV charging expansion at multifamily properties, EV outreach and education, time-of-sale electrification requirements, and wetland sequestration. Collectively, the modeled local actions are projected to reduce emissions by an additional approximately 29,000 metric tons by 2045, lowering projected emissions to roughly 152,000 metric tons by 2045.
Among the modeled local actions, expansion of EV charging infrastructure at or near multifamily properties generated the largest projected local emissions reduction, with an estimated reduction of approximately 22,217 metric tons by 2045. Building electrification measures, such as Reach Codes and existing building electrification support programs, also contributed to measurable reductions, though the long-term reductions associated with these local actions decline over time because the Bay Area Air District Rules already drive significant electrification of space and water heating equipment by approximately 2042.
Despite the substantial projected reductions from regional, state, and local actions, Figure 1 identifies a significant remaining “additional action needed” gap between projected emissions and the City’s pathway to carbon neutrality by 2045. The remaining emissions are projected to consist primarily of on- road transportation emissions, residual natural gas appliance use not currently covered under regional regulations (cooking appliances, fireplaces, and pool heating), and other smaller emissions sources. The analysis demonstrates that achieving full carbon neutrality will likely require additional technological City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
19 advancement, broader regional and state climate regulations, continued market transformation, future policy innovation, and additional local emissions-reduction measures.
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
20 Figure 1. Mountain View’s potential emissions reductions and forecast (metric tons)
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
21 Remaining Emissions
To provide additional details on Mountain View’s projected future emissions profile, Figure 2 compares 2022 emissions with projected remaining emissions in 2045, accounting for regional and state climate policies, market trends, and the nine modeled local decarbonization actions. These remaining emissions represent sectors that may require additional local strategies and technological advancements in the future to achieve the City’s adopted 2045 decarbonization goal.
The top projected emissions sources in 2045 are anticipated to include:
1. On-road vehicles (64%)
2. Off-road equipment (23%)
• For example, large construction equipment, diesel-powered engines, stationary equipment, generators, and off-road vehicles or engines greater than 25 horsepower that fall outside the scope of AB 1346 - Small Off-Road Engine Ban.
3. Landfill emissions (7%)
Figure 2. Mountain View's remaining emissions by source after accounting for the impact of key modeled policies and actions
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2022 2045
Emissions (MTCO2e) Landfill
Off-Road
On-Road
Natural Gas
Electricity
City of Mountain View Decarbonization Analysis Goal Analysis
22 Figure 3 presents 2022 emissions alongside projected remaining “core” emissions in 2045, focusing specifically on Mountain View’s primary emissions sources: electricity, natural gas, on-road vehicles, and landfill. “Core” emission sources are those within the City’s greater control, indicating opportunities for additional local action.
The top projected core emissions sources in 2045 are anticipated to include:
1. On-road vehicles (83%)
2. Landfill emissions (9%)
3. Natural gas (8%)
Figure 3. Mountain View's remaining core emissions by source after accounting for the impact of key modeled policies and actions
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2022 2045
Emissions (MTCO2e)
Landfill
On-Road
Natural Gas
Electricity