CITY OF NAPA: INDICATORS
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA
MA Y 2022
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 ATTACHMENT 1
Real GDP (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Core PCE Inflation (%)
Previous
New
Previous
New
Previous
New
Quarterly
2022:Q1
3.9 1.8
4.3 3.9
2.5 4.3
2022:Q2
3.0 4.2
4.1 3.7
2.4 3.1
2022:Q3
3.1 3.0
3.9 3.6
2.3 2.5
2022:Q4
3.1 2.9
3.9 3.5
2.1 2.3
2023:Q1
N/A
2.8 N/A
3.4 N/A
2.3 Annual data (projections based on annual
-
average levels):
2022
3.9 3.7
4.1 3.7
2.3 3.1
2023
2.6 2.7
3.6 3.4
2.1 2.2
2024
2.3 2.3
3.7 3.6
N/A
2.2 2025
N/A
2.3 N/A
3.7 N/A
N.A.
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
2 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from
February 2022
ATTACHMENT 1
Inflation: The Latest and Thinking Forward
Shaded Area = Recession, 2007 to 2025, CPI
Inflation stable when demand is
rising and supply is rising in
tandem
•
Changes in interest rates from
here a question
•
Eastern Europe has made this
supply
-
side recovery more
complex
•
Affects low
-
wage workers more
each month this continues
3 Sources: Federal Reserve, Richmond, Pink
-
Shaded Area = Forecast to 2025
ATTACHMENT 1
Employment Recovery Comparison, California, Great Recession and COVID
-
19 Recession, Months from Peak Employment,
Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 = 100, to February 2022
4 Source: California EDD and EFA
These data show are the
same idea as the last slide,
but for California.
The Great Recession in
California took 72 months
to recover the lost volume
of workers.
As of March 2022, CA back
to 98.5% of Jan 2020 level
of employed residents.
Recovery is movement of
black line back to red
dotted line.
98.5 60
65 70
75 80
85 90
95 100
105
1 4
7 10
13 16
19 22
25 28
31 34
37 40
43 46
49 52
55 58
61 64
67 70
73 Great Recession
COVID-19
ATTACHMENT 1
Tracking Labor Market Recovery: City of Napa Residents
Great Recession and in COVID
-
19 Recession to February 2022,
Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 =
100
5 Source: California EDD and EFA
These data show the evolution of the
Great Recession versus COVID
-
19 jobs recovery from the peak month
of pre
-
recession jobs levels.
The COVID
-
19 recovery for city
residents has gained more
momentum since Dec 2020 and
especially March 2021. As of
February 2022, the City of Napa
residents that were working at pre
-
pandemic levels in the aggregate
again.
Recovery is movement of black line
back to red dotted line.
We need to watch for how the jobs
Napa residents work have shifted
from some sectors to others.
99.5 70.0
75.0 80.0
85.0 90.0
95.0 100.0
105.0
110.0
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
17 18
19 20
21 22
23 24
25 26
27 Index (Jan 2020 = 1
00)
Months from Jan 2020
ATTACHMENT 1
Major LF Data Comparisons, March 2022 Compared to Jan
2020, City of Napa, Napa County Residents and CA
6 Category
Change
City of
Napa
%
Change/
U Rate
Change
Napa
County
%
Change/
U Rate
Change
California
%
Change/
U Rate
Civilian Labor
Force
-
400
-
0.9%
-
800
-
1.1%
-
414,100
-
2.1%
Civilian
Employment
-
-
200
-
0.5%
-
400
-
0.6%
-
547,200
-
2.9%
Unemployment
Rate
3.6%
3.4%
4.9%
Source: California EDD and EFA
The City of Napa’s labor market
continues to improve, with the
City’s residents now back to
the same labor
-
force level and
beyond as pre
-
pandemic.
We are comparing to Jan 2020
in terms of data about
“change”.
California’s unemployment rate
remains among the nation’s
highest for the 50 states.
ATTACHMENT 1
Overnight Stay Evolution: February 2020 and February 2022, Percent of Available Rooms (Occ Rate) and Revenue per Available Room (RevP AR), Napa and Selected counties
7 Source: Smith Travel Research and EFA
Napa County/City of Napa
has continued to recover
demand and business
revenue from overnight stays
Notice San Francisco is still
relatively low versus
February 2020.
These rates are TOT drivers;
the higher the occupancy
rates, the more TOT,
especially if hotel prices are
rising simultaneously.
More overnight stays
accelerate tourism spending
versus day visitors.
Occ Rate
RevPAR
County
Feb
2022
Feb
2020
Feb
2022
Feb
2020
Napa County
55.6 64.5
$ 206.98
$ 173.56
Marin County
60.9 70.8
$ 88.01
$ 51.72
San Francisco
56.0 70.5
$ 102.29
$ 107.25
Sonoma County
42.3 76.6
$ 78.10
$ 35.88
ATTACHMENT 1
Housing Price Forecast, February 2022 to February 2023, % Change, City of Napa, Selected Counties and California 8 Source: Zillow
TM
Research and EFA
The City of Napa’s housing
market drives Napa County;
the forecast in Oct 2021 to
Oct 2022 remains strong.
We should expect prices and
forecasts to continue
flattening in 2022.
While interest rates may
remain historically low, we
should expect the Federal
Reserve to increase rates by
0.25%
–
0.50% in 2022 and
thus marginally reduce
demand for home
purchases.
16.7%
17.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
ATTACHMENT 1
Work from Home: New Census Data
% of Working Residents, 2011 to 2020, 5
-
Y ear Averages
9 5.6%
5.5%
5.9%
7.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2011
2015
2019
2020
Napa County
Marin County
United States
California
Source: Census Bureau and EFA, March 2022
Napa County saw a
jump in the
proportion of
working residents
working from home
in 2020, but not as
much as Marin
County (which ranks
#1 in California
among the 58
counties for % of
working residents
working from home.
ATTACHMENT 1
City of Napa: things to watch
•
City of Napa, April 2022
•
City of Napa continues to recover
•
Local labor markets may be held up by lack of workers and rising gas prices •
Jobs and Economic Recovery in City of Napa and Napa County •
Napa County bucking trends on leisure and hospitality hiring (rising faster than state) •
Construction/housing and labor force 2025 the next focus •
Macroeconomic forecasts have been slightly reduced
•
Inflation expectations remain high
•
Eastern Europe may shift international travel in summer 2022 to regional to Napa 10 ATTACHMENT 1
Thanks!
Questions?
[email protected]
@bobby7007
11 ATTACHMENT 1