CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA SEPTEMBER 2022
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 ATTACHMENT 1
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Previous New Previous New Previous New
Quarterly
2022:Q2 2.5 1.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.6
2022:Q3 2.3 1.2 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.5
2022:Q4 2.1 1.1 3.5 3.8 2.8 3.1
2023:Q1 2.3 1.5 3.5 3.9 2.7 2.8
2023:Q2 N/A 1.5 N/A 4.0 N/A 2.6
Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
2022 2.5 1.6 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.5
2023 2.3 1.3 3.6 3.9 2.5 2.8
2024 2.0 2.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 2.2
2025 2.3 2.1 3.8 3.9 N/A N.A.
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
2 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from August 2022
Q1 Real GDP:
-1.6%
Q2 Real GDP:
-0.6
Inflation Watching: 2007 to 2025
3 What to Watch
• Grocery and gas prices:
optics
• Housing prices and local
employment levels
The key: can we
“decompose” supply from
demand effects?
Acting like it is demand only*
Employment Trends (Workers that Live in Napa, Index (Jan 2020 = 100), Napa and California, Jan 2018 – June 2022
4 95.7
98.9 75.0
80.0 85.0
90.0 95.0
100.0
105.0
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
City of Napa California
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Trends (Workers that live in Napa)
Index (Jan 2020 = 100), Napa and California, Jan 2018 – June 2022 5 95.5
99.0 90.0
92.0 94.0
96.0 98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
Napa City Calfiornia
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment By Industry , City of Napa,
2021, % of T otal Jobs at Local Employers
6 Government, 14.5%
Health Care/Social
Assistance, 14.4%
Manufacturing, 12.5%
Retail, 9.7%Construction, 7.0%
Administrative and Waste
Management, 6.4%
Restaurants, 6.3%
Agriculture, 6.1%
Other Services, 4.0%
Hotels and Motels and
Arts, 3.6%
Professional/Technical
Services, 3.4%
All Others, 12.1%
Sources: California EDD and Census Bureau and EMSI/Burning Glass City of Napa:
1. Diverse Employer base
2. Manufacturing a mix of
wineries and food and
beverage primarily
3. Healthcare important to
local amenities
4. Hospitality (restaurants,
retail and hotels) about
20% of total jobs
Gross Regional Product, City of Napa
2021, % Mix by Industry
7 Manufacturing, 18.0%
Government, 14.8%
Medical Offices, Hospitals,
Non-Profits providing
Health Services, 9.7%
Construction, 7.0%Hotels, Motels and
Restaurants, 6.8%
Retail Trade (Stores and
Virtual Sales), 6.6%
Finance and Insurance and
Banking, 6.5%
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services, 5.9%
Wholesale Trade, 4.6%
Employment Placement and
Garbage/Recycling, 3.9%
Agriculture, 3.5%
Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing (incl Equipment
Leasing), 3.2%
Other Private-Sector
Services, 9.4%
City of Napa:
1. Manufacturing (wine
industry primarily) high
value-add and percent of
GRP
2. County seat adds to
government income
produced in Napa
3. Hospitality (restaurants,
retail and hotels) about
16% of value-added
52.3% 51.2%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Building
Material and
Garden
Equipment
and Supplies
Dealers
Clothing and
Clothing
Accessories
Stores
Food and
Beverage
Stores
Food Services
and Drinking
Places
Gasoline
Stations
General
Merchandise
Stores
Home
Furnishings
and
Appliance
Stores
Motor
Vehicle and
Parts Dealers
Other Retail
Group
All Other
Outlets
City of Napa Napa County without City of Napa California T axable Sales Growth, Q1 2021 to Q1 2022
% Change for City of Napa, Napa County (outside City of Napa), California 8 Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA) Wages, 2022 Levels and % Change since 2021
(Not Inflation Adjusted), Napa and comparison counties and California 9 $23.74
$28.21
$23.96
$37.09
$23.97
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Napa Marin Sonoma SF CA
Median Wage ($)
1.5%
2.5%
3.4%
9.5%
2.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Napa Marin Sonoma SF CA
% Change 2021 to 2022, Median Wage
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
T ourism, Average Daily Rate ($) and
Occupancy Rate (%), April 2019 to June 2022
10 $360.03
71.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
ADR Occ Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research
Housing: % Change from June 2020 and June 2021
to June 2022 and Forecast to June 2023
11 32.8% 32.5%
27.7%
38.9%
33.7%
37.1%
34.3%
49.9%
32.1%
37.3%
54.8% 54.9%
41.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
One Year Two Year
4.1%
9.3%
6.6%
5.7%
5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8%
4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
3.0%
5.2%
6.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Source: Zillow Research
City of Napa: Things to Watch
• City of Napa, September 2022
• City of Napa continues to recover, economic slowdown may not affect revenue • Assume wages and worker availability may continue to be a problem for local businesses
• Travel industry: strong recovery
• 2023 likely the year of full recovery from pandemic in terms of inflation-adjusted spending in City of Napa
• If economic slowdown mild and job losses light, continued growth to 2025 very likely • Housing forecasts reduced: you will start to see negative forecasts soon • Buyer fatigue, continued high offers by sellers and rising rates • No predicted repeat of 2006-09: perspective needed here 12 Thanks!
Questions?
[email protected]
@bobby7007
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