SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTS & COMMUNICATIONS
Office of the City Clerk
City Council of the City of Napa
Regular Meeting
September 6, 2022
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPA
AFTERNOON SESSION:
SUBMITTED PRIOR TO THE CITY COUNCIL MEETING
4. ADMINISTRATIVE REPORTS:
4.A. Financial and Economic indicator Update, September 2022 • PowerPoint presentation from Robert Eyler, PhD.
5. PUBLIC COMMENT:
1) Email from Jarvis Peay received on August 26, 2022.
2) Email from Jarvis Peay received on August 31, 2022.
CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA
SEPTEMBER 2022
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 City Council Regular Meeting
9/6/2022
Supplemental - Item 4.A.
From: Robert Eyler, PhD
Real GDP (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Core PCE Inflation (%)
Previous
New
Previous
New
Previous
New
Quarterly
2022:Q2
2.5 1.4
3.5 3.5
3.8 4.6
2022:Q3
2.3 1.2
3.5 3.7
3.2 3.5
2022:Q4
2.1 1.1
3.5 3.8
2.8 3.1
2023:Q1
2.3 1.5
3.5 3.9
2.7 2.8
2023:Q2
N/A
1.5 N/A
4.0 N/A
2.6 Annual data (projections based on annual
-
average levels):
2022
2.5 1.6
3.6 3.7
4.1 4.5
2023
2.3 1.3
3.6 3.9
2.5 2.8
2024
2.0 2.3
3.8 3.9
2.2 2.2
2025
2.3 2.1
3.8 3.9
N/A
N.A.
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
2 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from August 2022
Q1 Real GDP:
-
1.6%
Q2 Real GDP:
-
0.6
Inflation Watching: 2007 to 2025
3 What to Watch
•
Grocery and gas prices:
optics
•
Housing prices and local
employment levels
The key: can we
“decompose” supply from
demand effects?
Acting like it is demand only*
Employment Trends (Workers that Live in Napa, Index (Jan 2020 = 100), Napa and California, Jan 2018
–
June 2022
4 95.7
98.9 75.0
80.0 85.0
90.0 95.0
100.0
105.0
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
City of Napa
California
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Trends (Workers that live in Napa)
Index (Jan 2020 = 100), Napa and California, Jan 2018
–
June 2022
5 95.5
99.0 90.0
92.0 94.0
96.0 98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
Napa City
Calfiornia
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment By Industry , City of Napa,
2021, % of T otal Jobs at Local Employers
6 Government
,
14.5%
Health Care/Social
Assistance
,
14.4%
Manufacturing
,
12.5%
Retail
,
9.7%
Construction
,
7.0%
Administrative and Waste
Management
,
6.4%
Restaurants
,
6.3%
Agriculture
,
6.1%
Other Services
,
4.0%
Hotels and Motels and
Arts
,
3.6%
Professional/Technical
Services
,
3.4%
All Others
,
12.1%
Sources: California EDD and Census Bureau and EMSI/Burning Glass City of Napa:
1. Diverse Employer base
2. Manufacturing a mix of
wineries and food and
beverage primarily
3. Healthcare important to
local amenities
4. Hospitality (restaurants,
retail and hotels) about
20% of total jobs
Gross Regional Product, City of Napa
2021, % Mix by Industry
7 Manufacturing
,
18.0%
Government
,
14.8%
Medical Offices, Hospitals,
Non
-
Profits providing
Health Services
,
9.7%
Construction
,
7.0%
Hotels, Motels and
Restaurants
,
6.8%
Retail Trade (Stores and
Virtual Sales)
,
6.6%
Finance and Insurance and
Banking
,
6.5%
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
,
5.9%
Wholesale Trade
,
4.6%
Employment Placement and
Garbage/Recycling
,
3.9%
Agriculture
,
3.5%
Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing (incl Equipment
Leasing)
,
3.2%
Other Private
-
Sector
Services
,
9.4%
City of Napa:
1. Manufacturing (wine
industry primarily) high
value
-
add and percent of
GRP
2. County seat adds to
government income
produced in Napa
3. Hospitality (restaurants,
retail and hotels) about
16% of value
-
added
52.3%
51.2%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Building
Material and
Garden
Equipment
and Supplies
Dealers
Clothing and
Clothing
Accessories
Stores
Food and
Beverage
Stores
Food Services
and Drinking
Places
Gasoline
Stations
General
Merchandise
Stores
Home
Furnishings
and
Appliance
Stores
Motor
Vehicle and
Parts Dealers
Other Retail
Group
All Other
Outlets
City of Napa
Napa County without City of Napa
California
T axable Sales Growth, Q1 2021 to Q1 2022
% Change for City of Napa, Napa County (outside City of Napa), California 8 Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA)
Wages, 2022 Levels and % Change since 2021
(Not Inflation Adjusted), Napa and comparison counties and California 9 $23.74
$28.21
$23.96
$37.09
$23.97
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Napa
Marin
Sonoma
SF
CA
Median Wage ($)
1.5%
2.5%
3.4%
9.5%
2.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Napa
Marin
Sonoma
SF
CA
% Change 2021 to 2022, Median Wage
Sources: California EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics
T ourism, Average Daily Rate ($) and
Occupancy Rate (%), April 2019 to June 2022
10 $360.03
71.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Apr-2020
May-2020
Jun-2020
Jul-2020
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Oct-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Feb-2022
Mar-2022
Apr-2022
May-2022
Jun-2022
ADR
Occ Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research
Housing: % Change from June 2020 and June 2021
to June 2022 and Forecast to June 2023
11 32.8%
32.5%
27.7%
38.9%
33.7%
37.1%
34.3%
49.9%
32.1%
37.3%
54.8%
54.9%
41.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
One Year
Two Year
4.1%
9.3%
6.6%
5.7%
5.1%
5.0%
4.8%
4.8%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
3.0%
5.2%
6.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Source: Zillow Research
City of Napa: Things to Watch
•
City of Napa, September 2022
•
City of Napa continues to recover, economic slowdown may not affect revenue •
Assume wages and worker availability may continue to be a problem for local businesses
•
Travel industry: strong recovery
•
2023 likely the year of full recovery from pandemic in terms of inflation -
adjusted
spending in City of Napa
•
If economic slowdown mild and job losses light, continued growth to 2025 very likely •
Housing forecasts reduced: you will start to see negative forecasts soon •
Buyer fatigue, continued high offers by sellers and rising rates •
No predicted repeat of 2006
-
09: perspective needed here
12
Thanks!
Questions?
[email protected]
@bobby7007
13
From:
King Jarvis
To:
Clerk
Subject:
Fwd: Public Comments For The Napa City Council and The Napa County Board Of Supervisors Date:
Friday, August 26, 2022 7:58:57 AM
[EXTERNAL]
Forward my Public Comments to all council members.
JWP
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From:
King Jarvis
Date: Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 6:05 PM
Subject: Public Comments For The Napa City Council and The Napa County Board Of Supervisors
To: Clerk <
[email protected]
>, Lee Reynolds
>, Cortez,
Nelson <
[email protected]
>, Potter, Steve <
[email protected]
>, Scott
Sedgley <
[email protected]
>, Daniel Evans <
[email protected]
>,
<
[email protected]
>
An Open Letter To Mayor Scott Sedgely Not long ago, I mentioned to my friend, Steve Potter, that I wanted to have a meeting with you. You said yea, I said, okay, and we agreed to discuss apparent conflicts in the Napa Fire and Police Departments' policies regarding onsite visits and tours, overall, and
particularly in this Covid era. You and I agreed on a date, June 22, and the Napa City Clerk sent me a Zoom link for our meeting. The four of us, you, myself, Napa City Manager Steve Potter, and the Napa City Clerk, were all included in each other's emails regarding the Zoom meeting.
Considering the facts, I requested an hour long meeting, as opposed to the thirty minutes that you wrote were available at that time.
I got it, I understood,
and so I offered up flexibility, Mayor, I wrote that I was willing to wait until you had a one hour window for our Zoom meeting. That email was met with no reply from you.
After a
while, I wrote another email, requesting an hour-long session.
Again, you chose not to reply.
After waiting patiently for a reply from you, Mayor, I
sent an email to Steve Potter, you, and
the City of Napa Clerk saying that you, Mayor, should be censured, for failing to simply reply to a 67 year old, twenty two year Napa resident, who is merely seeking to better the lot of all of the residents of this beautiful city .
Then came this:
Right after I sent you that email, you
wrote me a vicious, demeaning email, stating the following: "
Jarvis,
It was in good faith I responded to your request and provided dates and times to meet with you virtually. You did not accept my offer.
In my capacity as Mayor I often receive nonsensical emails and phone calls. Responding to such communication is generally unproductive.
If I've misunderstood the intent of your emails I apologize.
Scott
" That the mayor of any town, any time,
any where, that an individual in a position of
power, any time or anywhere, would use the rhetorical cudgel that you employed is usually unacceptable by the people that he or she serves. Not only that, but you decided to use a force multiplier, by ccing
City of Napa Manager Steve Potter and the City of Napa Clerks in your less than flattering email. Therefore, Mayor, I have chosen to accept your series of thirty minute
Zoom meetings, when I can discuss with you the topics that I have previously
chosen,
and at the end of the sessions, you can tell me and the world, which if any of my emails, which each of
the four of us have, are " nonsensical ".
Jarvis William Peay
5. Public Comment
From:
Clerk
To:
"King Jarvis"
;
Clerk
Subject:
RE: Public Comment
Date:
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 9:28:38 AM
Mr. Peay,
Your comments have been forwarded to Council and appropriate staff.
Samantha Pascoe
Deputy City Clerk
Pronouns: She/her
City of Napa – City Hall
955 School Street, Napa, CA 94559
Phone
(707) 257-9622
Email
[email protected]
Website
www.cityofnapa.org
From:
King Jarvis
Sent:
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 9:16 AM
To:
Clerk <[email protected]>
Subject:
Fwd: Public Comment
[EXTERNAL]
Please forward to council
members.
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From:
King Jarvis
Date: Wed, Aug 31, 2022 at 9:15 AM
Subject: Public Comment
To: Clerk <
[email protected]
>, Lee Reynolds <
>, Scott Sedgley
<
[email protected]
>, Potter, Steve <
[email protected]
>, Daniel Evans
<
[email protected]
>
August 31, 2022 I would like to say that I had a very informative and productive meeting with the Mayor yesterday. Below are the main topics of discussion: 1.)
POLICE AND FIRE
DEPARTMENT RECRUITMENT OF MINORITY CANDIDATES We are all aware of the shrinking number of people who are inclined to work in law enforcement. The mayor indicated that the City of Napa is invested in pursuing such
candidates, but we have to compete strenuously with other agencies, quite naturally.
The city recruits heavily in the West.
I suggested that a recruitment campaign in the
east may be beneficial, in maybe a test case.
I even went further to say that an international,
international law enforcement officer recruitment campaign may bear even greater fruit.
The
Mayor added that having a foriegn national in our ranks would promote inclusion, and an ability to mesh varying methods and techniques among all officers.
( I am paraphrasing what Mayor Sedgely
stated. )
To my knowledge, there are certain visas, work visas, given to individuals who have a unique or outstanding ability in a certain professional activity.
Think about the many countries
abroad that have effective levels of compliance without the use of firearms.
Our officers could learn
from them, and vice versa. 2.) NAPA SISTER CITIES During my meeting with the Mayor, I brought up the idea of the city acquiring a " Sister City " from the African Continent. The mayor let me in on a fact that I was not aware of: Sister Cities are a county wide endeavor, and the rules are that there can only be one sister per continent. Excellent. Of the seven, the two that are as yet onboard are Africa, and.........North America. The mayor offered up Mexico, which is an excellent idea. Seems rather strange that the two continental vacancies had not been filled before now, but we are forward facing . A part of me would like to see a public element in selecting which Mexican city will join our ranks, to give the Latinos a sense of pride and inclusion in a process. But..............
3.) COAD PACKETS I was given an informational packet by a neighbor lady recently, and it was chock full of extremely valuable disaster preparedness information and visual aids, among other things.
You folk are a part of an organization that was borne of the horrible fires and catastrophes in the Valley in recent years. When you get your hands on this well produced packet, you will see why my aim is to get it to as many Valley households as possible. I encouraged the Mayor to find out how all of the 140 units at my housing complex, and all of the 700 housing units under the Napa Valley Community Housing umbrella. Jarvis William Peay