CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA DECEMBER 2022
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 ATTACHMENT 1
Employment Recovery Comparison, United States,
Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession, Months from Peak Employment, Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 = 100, to Oct 2022 2 Source: BLS and EFA
100.8
75.0 80.0
85.0 90.0
95.0 100.0
105.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 Great Recession COVID-19
Inflation Watching: 2007 to 2025
3 What to Watch
• Holiday season: will price
competition now help?
• Interest rate watch: how
much higher?
• Housing prices and local
employment levels
• 2023 travel spending
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
2022 1.6 1.9 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.8
2023 1.3 0.7 3.9 4.2 2.8 3.0
2024 2.3 1.8 3.9 4.3 2.2 2.4
2025 2.1 2.2 3.9 4.2 N/A N/A
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
4 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from November 2022
Q1 Real GDP: -1.6%
Q2 Real GDP: -0.6%
Q3 Real GDP (Est 1) = +2.6%
Napa at a Glance: end of Q3 2022
5 Employment Trends: City Residents Working or Looking for Work, 2019-2022
6 T axable Sales % Change, Q2 2022 from Q2 2021
City of Napa, Napa County (outside City of Napa), California 7 Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA) -1.2%
3.9%
-3.4%
30.0%
32.9%
-0.8%
17.7%
-8.5%
21.7%
37.1%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Building
Material and
Garden
Equipment
and Supplies
Dealers
Clothing and
Clothing
Accessories
Stores
Food and
Beverage
Stores
Food Services
and Drinking
Places
Gasoline
Stations
General
Merchandise
Stores
Home
Furnishings
and
Appliance
Stores
Motor
Vehicle and
Parts Dealers
Other Retail
Group
All Other
Outlets
City of Napa Napa County without City of Napa California T ourism, Average Daily Rate ($) and
Occupancy Rate (%), April 2019 to Sept 2022
8 Housing: % Change Median Home Price Sept 2020 to Sept 2022 Median Rents, Sept 2019 to Sept 2022
City of Napa and Selected Cities and Counties
9 Source: ZillowTM Research
8.5%
31.7%
47.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
% Change Median Home Prices
One Year Two Year
Dollars ($) Per Month
Equity Measures: Housing Burden
City of Napa and Selected Cities and Counties
10 Housing Burden
% of Households with Rent as at least
30% of monthly income
Place 2010 2015 2020
Napa City 55.3% 55.3% 55.6%
Napa County 53.1% 55.5% 52.6%
Sonoma 55.8% 56.9% 54.7%
Marin 54.2% 54.1% 50.5%
Solano 56.2% 57.0% 53.4%
Yamhill 49.6% 54.1% 50.7%
Fairfield 57.4% 55.5% 54.8%
Livermore 50.7% 49.7% 50.3%
Petaluma 56.0% 50.5% 54.7%
San Rafael 56.3% 58.4% 54.2%
Santa Cruz 63.2% 67.5% 58.9%
Temecula 54.4% 57.8% 53.9%
Monterey 49.5% 52.9% 55.4%
CA 55.1% 56.9% 54.2%
US 50.8% 51.8% 49.1%
Housing Burden: % of after-tax income paid for rent
or ownership (these data are just rentals)
• A percent over 30% is considered “burdened” in
housing advocacy circles
• Severe burden is considered over 50%
• Caveats
• Burden is a function of housing costs and
incomes
• The key is how households are making
budget decisions assuming taxes and
housing are paid first
City of Napa: Things to Watch
• City of Napa toward 2023
• City of Napa strong recovery to 2022, slower in 2023
• Macroeconomic context is fading toward recession in 2023: interest rates rising leave little choice
• Travel industry: strong recovery, assume slower in 2023 • Will Napa be a focus of regional travel with income growth slowing down due to job losses and slower economy?
• Housing forecasts reduced: more forecast downgrades coming • No predicted repeat of 2006-09: available existing and new units and credit conditions much more stable
• Perspective: need to watch construction employment
11 Thanks!
Questions?
[email protected]
@bobby7007
12