SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTS & COMMUNICATIONS
Office of the City Clerk
City Council of the City of Napa
Regular Meeting
January 17, 2023
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPA
AFTERNOON SESSION:
SUBMITTED PRIOR TO THE CITY COUNCIL MEETING
5. PUBLIC COMMENT:
1) Email from John Dunbar received on January 17, 2023. 2) Email from Lita Bruce received on January 17, 2023.
3) Email from Renee Cazares received on January 17, 2023. 4) Email from Leslie and Pete Richmond received on January 17, 2023.
5. ADMINISTRATIVE REPORTS:
5.C. Safe Firearm Storage
• PowerPoint presentation from City Staff.
5.D. Council Spotlight – Police Records Bureau
• PowerPoint presentation from City Staff.
SUBMITTED DURING OR AFTER THE MEETING
3. PUBLIC COMMENT:
1) Handout from Thomas Sykes received on January 17, 2023.
SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTS & COMMUNICATIONS
Office of the City Clerk
City Council of the City of Napa
Regular Meeting
January 17, 2023
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPA
AFTERNOON SESSION:
SUBMITTED PRIOR TO THE CITY COUNCIL MEETING
5. PUBLIC COMMENT:
1) Email from John Dunbar received on January 17, 2023. 2) Email from Lita Bruce received on January 17, 2023.
3) Email from Renee Cazares received on January 17, 2023. 4) Email from Leslie and Pete Richmond received on January 17, 2023.
5. ADMINISTRATIVE REPORTS:
5.C. Safe Firearm Storage
• PowerPoint presentation from City Staff.
5.D. Council Spotlight – Police Records Bureau
• PowerPoint presentation from City Staff.
Safe Firearm
Storage
City of Napa
Police Department
City Council Regular Meeting
1/17/2023
Supplemental - Item 5.C.
From: City Staff
Background for today’s presentation:
•During the Council Comment portion of the public meeting on September 6, 2022, Councilmember Luros provided
information regarding a Safe Firearm Storage ordinance
adopted by St. Helena.
•At Councilmember Luros’ request, the City Council directed staff to include an item on a future public meeting agenda for Council discussion of a potential similar ordinance for the City of Napa.
Facts to consider:
•According to CDC data, firearms are the second leading cause of death for children in the US (replacing cancer) •John Hopkins University study estimated 54% of firearm owners do not properly secure their firearms.
•Approximately 350 children unintentionally shoot
themselves annually.
• Other forms of child deaths related to firearms includes homicide, suicide and legal intervention.
Additional Facts to consider:
•An estimated 80% of shooters under the age of 18
involved in gunfire on a school campus obtained the
firearm from their home or a home of a friend or relative. •Adolescent suicide risk is strongly associated with firearm availability.
•Approximately 4.6 million children live in a home with at least one unlocked and loaded firearm.
•Parental education about firearm safety is effective.
National Progress
• 14 states and DC – laws requiring guns stored locked. • 3 states – laws requiring that trigger locks accompany gun purchases.
• 8 states – laws requiring that guns be stored locked
and that trigger locks accompany gun purchases.
Current California Laws:
•California Penal Code Sections 23620-23690
•Identify legal requirements for firearm safety devices, gun safes, and related warnings.
•California Penal Code Sections 25100-25140
•Identify legal requirements for criminal storage of firearms •California Penal Code Sections 25200-25225
•Identify legal requirements for storage of firearms where a child obtains access and carries a firearm off-premise.
Constitutionality of Safe Storage Laws:
In 2008, the Supreme Court ruled on the Second Amendment for the first time in almost 70 years after Dick Heller sued the District of Columbia over its ban on handguns in the home. The court ruled in Heller’s favor, affirming an individual right to keep handguns in the home for self-defense.
(District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) 554 U.S. 570.)
In 2014, the Ninth Circuit determined that a San Francisco safe storage ordinance that regulates how people must store their handguns when not carrying them on their persons does not run afoul of the Second Amendment.
(Jackson v. City & County of San Francisco (2014) 746 F.3d 953.) Gaps in the law:
•California State Laws
•Except in cases where one is living with a person prohibited from owning a firearm, the law does not define what “safe storage” means when it mandates guns be stored safely.
•California law does not apply to all homes, only homes where children live or where “a child is likely to gain access to the firearm” or if living with a person who is prohibited from having a firearm. •The City of Napa Municipal Code
•Does not currently regulate firearm storage or improperly stored firearms.
Support for a local safe firearm storage ordinance:
•Mothers Demand Action (including the local Napa
Chapter) support the development of a local ordinance.
•They have participated in public safety education events, including the Napa National Night Out in August.
•The American Academy of Pediatrics and the International Association of Chiefs of Police recommend the safe
storage of firearms.
St. Helena Safe Firearms Ordinance:
•St. Helena City Council - Safe Firearm Storage Ordinance designed to fill the gaps in California law.
“No person shall keep a firearm within any residence unless the firearm is stored in a locked container or disabled with a trigger lock.” • Exceptions for carrying the firearm on your person and peace officers.
Napa Police Department Recommendations:
•Direct staff to prepare a safe firearm storage ordinance to be brought back to Council for consideration at a
future public hearing.
•If adopted, Napa PD will include information about the new ordinance as a part of its public education programs that promote firearm safety.
Any questions?
From:
Steve Potter
To:
Clerk
Subject:
FW: Safe Firearm Storage public comment
Date:
Monday, January 16, 2023 10:59:49 AM
Attachments:
Yountville Safe Firearm Storage ordinance 11-01-22.pdf
From:
John Dunbar
Sent:
Monday, January 16, 2023 7:19 AM
To:
Bernie Narvaez <[email protected]>; Liz Alessio <[email protected]>; Mary Luros
<[email protected]>; Scott Sedgley <[email protected]>; Beth Painter <[email protected]>
Cc:
Steve Potter <[email protected]>
Subject:
Safe Firearm Storage public comment[Some people who received this message don't often [EXTERNAL]
Mayor Sedgley, Council and City Manager Potter,I read that you’re considering adoption of a safe firearm storage ordinance at your Council meeting
on Jan. 17.The Napa Register article in
today/Monday’s paper, written by Edward Booth, fails to mention the
Town of Yountville adopted a
safe firearm ordinance on Nov. 1, 2022.I’m attaching the draft of ordinance 22-515 that was presented to our Council for its second reading
and adoption for your reference. At our meeting, we
had several public comments in support of this
ordinance, including from Napa County Sheriff Oscar
Ortiz and Napa resident and Moms Demand
Action spokesperson Liz Russell.While being sensitive to and protecting legal and safe gun ownership, such an ordinance enhances
gun safety through
responsible firearm home storage.Cheers!John F. Dunbar
Item 3. Public Comment
Town of Yountville
Ordinance Number 22-515
AN ORDINANCE OF THE TOWN COUNCIL OF THE TOWN OF YOUNTVILLE, CALIFORNIA ADDING CHAPTER 9.22 TO TITLE 9 OF THE YOUNTVILLE MUNICIPAL
CODE REGARDING SAFE FIREARM STORAGE
WHEREAS, the Town does not presently regulate firearm storage within residential locations;
WHEREAS, firearm injuries have a significant adverse public health and safety impact nationally, regionally, and locally;
WHEREAS, improperly stored firearms may result in accidental firearm injuries and/or deaths, particularly in homes with children;
WHEREAS, in California, numerous people die each year from injuries related to firearms, and many more are hospitalized for non-fatal gunshot wounds; WHEREAS, having a loaded or unlocked firearm in the home has been associated with an increased risk of firearm-related injury and death, as well as theft of the firearm;
WHEREAS, a firearm stored while loaded or unlocked increases the risk of an accidental shooting, and has been associated with higher risks of suicide; WHEREAS, quick access to a loaded firearm heightens the risk that a young person’s impulsive decision to commit suicide will be carried out without reflection or seeking help, and that the impulsive attempt will be fatal; WHEREAS, utilizing gun locks or lock boxes when storing firearms in the home reduces the risk of firearm injury and death, as well as theft; and WHEREAS, keeping a firearm locked when it is not being carried ensures that it cannot be accessed or used by others without the owner’s knowledge or permission, decreasing the risk that the gun will be used to commit suicide, homicide, or inflict injury, whether intentionally or unintentionally;
WHEREAS, the International Association of Chiefs of Police and the American Academy of Pediatrics recommend the safe storage of firearms; Ordinance 22-515
1 9
4 4
5 WHEREAS, both gun control and gun rights activists, including the National Rifle Association, endorse the use of locking devices when storing firearms to ensure that unauthorized and untrained persons cannot access firearms to inflict injury or cause death;
WHEREAS, requiring stored, unsupervised firearms to be secured with gun locks or in a locked container does not substantially burden the right or ability to use firearms for self-defense in the home; and
WHEREAS, the Town Council finds that requiring safe storage of firearms would constitute a sensible safety regulation and would not be unduly burdensome for firearm owners.
Now, therefore, the Town Council of the Town of Yountville does ordain as follows:
SECTION 1. RECITALS: The above recitals are true and correct and fully incorporated herein.
SECTION 2. CODE AMENDMENT: Sections 9.22.010 through 9.22.020 of Chapter
9.22 of Title 9 is hereby added to the Yountville Municipal Code to read as follows:
Chapter 9.22 SAFE FIREARM STORAGE
9.22.010 Definitions
9.22.020 Prohibitions
9.22.030 Exception
9.22.040 Penalty
9.22.010 Definitions
“Firearm” means a firearm as defined in California Penal Code section 16520, as amended from time to time.
“Locked container” means a locked container as defined in California Penal Code section 16850, as amended from time to time, and is listed on the California Department of Justice Bureau of Firearms roster of approved firearm safety devices. “Residence” means any structure intended or used for human habitation, including but not limited to houses, apartments, condominiums, rooms, in-law units, accessory dwelling units, motels, hotels, single room occupancy units (SROs), timeshares, mobile homes, and recreational and other vehicles where human habitation occurs.
“Trigger lock” means a trigger lock that is listed on the California Department of Justice’s roster of approved firearms safety devices and that is identified as appropriate Ordinance 22-515
1 9
4 4
5 for that firearm by reference to either the manufacturer and model of the firearm or to the physical characteristics of the firearm that match those listed on the roster for use with the device under California Penal Code section 23635.
9.22.020 Prohibitions
No person shall keep a firearm within any residence unless the firearm is stored in a locked container or disabled with a trigger lock.
9.02.030 Exceptions.
A. The requirements of section 9.22.020 do not apply when a firearm is carried on the person of, or is otherwise in the immediate control and possession of, an individual in accordance with applicable local, state, and/or federal laws.
B. This chapter does not apply when a firearm is carried on the person of, or is otherwise in the immediate control and possession of, a peace officer (as defined in California Penal Code sections 830 et seq., as may be amended from time to time).
C. It is not the intention of this chapter to regulate any conduct if the regulation of such conduct has been preempted by state or federal law.
9.22.040 Penalty
Every violation of this chapter shall:
A. Constitute a public nuisance;
B. Constitute an infraction and be punished in accordance with Section
1.20.010 of this code;
C. Constitute a “code violation” within the meaning of Chapter 8.05 of this code; and
D. Be enforceable by the Town using any other enforcement remedies under law and this code.
SECTION 3. CEQA: The adoption of this Ordinance is exempt from the provisions of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) pursuant to CEQA Guidelines, section 15061(b)(3), which provides that CEQA only applies to projects which have the potential for causing a significant effect on the environment. Where it can be determined that the proposed project will not have a significant adverse effect on the environment, the project is not subject to CEQA. This Ordinance sets requirements for safe storage of firearms in residential locations, and does not propose nor authorize any action or specific project that would have the potential to cause a significant adverse effect on the environment.
Ordinance 22-515
1 9
4 4
5 SECTION 4. SEVERABILITY: Should any provision of this Ordinance, or its application to any person or circumstance, be determined by a court of competent jurisdiction to be unlawful, unenforceable, or otherwise void, that determination shall have no effect on any other provision of this Ordinance or the application of this Ordinance to any other person or circumstance and, to that end, the provisions hereof are severable.
SECTION 5. PUBLICATION; EFFECTIVE DATE: his Ordinance shall take effect and be enforced within thirty (30) days from and after the date of its adoption by the Town Council at a second reading and shall be posted and published in accordance with the California Government Code.
SECTION 6. CERTIFICATION: The Town Clerk shall certify to the passage and adoption of this Ordinance and shall give notice of its adoption as required by law. Within 15 days from the date of passage of this ordinance, the Town Clerk shall post a copy of the ordinance in accordance with California Government Code in at least three public places in the Town.
INTRODUCED by the Town Council at a regular meeting held on the 18th day of October, 2022.
PASSED AND ADOPTED by the Town Council at a regular meeting held on the 1st day of November 2022, by the following vote:
AYES:
NOES:
ABSENT:
ABSTAIN:
________________________________
John F. Dunbar, Mayor
ATTEST:
Eddy Gomez
Town Clerk
Gary B. Bell
Town Attorney
Ordinance 22-515
1 9
4 4
5 I, EDDY GOMEZ, TOWN CLERK of the Town of Yountville, California, do hereby certify that the foregoing Ordinance was regularly introduced and placed upon its first reading at a regular meeting of the Town Council on the 18th day of October 2022. That thereafter said Ordinance was duly adopted and passed at a regular meeting of the Town Council on the 1st day of November, 2022 by the following vote:
AYES:
NOES:
ABSENT:
ABSTAIN:
_____________________
Eddy Gomez, Town Clerk
From:
Ermilita B.
To:
Clerk
Subject:
Agenda Item Item 5C (427-2022)-- Support drafting of Safe Firearm Storage Ordinance Date:
Monday, January 16, 2023 5:29:25 PM
Dear Napa City Council,
As a volunteer of Napa Valley Moms Demand Action and on behalf of fellow Napa community members who simply want to keep our friends and family safe from all forms of gun violence, I wholeheartedly support the Napa City Council to move forward in drafting the Safe Firearm Storage ordinance. To date, it appears that the
St. Helena and Yountville City
Councils have already codified safe storage ordinances for their respective towns; Napa must align with our neighbors in order to keep this collective wine country community safe.
According to EveryTown GunSense Research, "
We are all safer when guns are stored
unloaded, locked, and separate from ammunition. One study found that households that locked both firearms and ammunition were associated with a 78 percent lower risk of self-inflicted firearm injuries and an 85 percent lower risk of unintentional firearm injuries among
children
and teens
, compared to those that locked neither. Another estimated that if half of households with children that have at least one unlocked gun switched to locking all their guns, one-third of youth gun suicides and unintentional deaths could be prevented, saving an estimated 251 lives in a single year."
"Firearms are the leading cause of death for children and teens (ages 1
to 19) in the
United States. Every year, 18,000 children and teens are shot and killed or wounded and approximately 3 million are exposed to gun violence.
Children and teens in the
U.S. are impacted by gun violence in all its forms. Exposure to gun violence has an impact on the psychological and mental well-being of children and teens and affects their school performance, among other factors. When homes, neighborhoods, and
schools
are not safe from gun violence, entire generations of American children are affected." (EveryTown Research and Policy).
Let's show the world that we are not only a world class wine destination, but we're also a world class GunSense community as well!
Thank you,
Lita Bruce
[EXTERNAL]
From: Renee C
To: Clerk
Subject: Support of firearm safe storage ordinance
Date: Monday, January 16, 2023 5:42:20 PM
[EXTERNAL]
Dear Mayor Sedgley and respective City Councilmembers,
Thank you your time today.
I am writing in support of agenda 5C in support of our Napa City Council proceeding with a staff recommendation to create a Safe Firearm Storage Ordinace. I believe that in creating a Safe Firearms Storage Ordnance, parents and caregivers will be held to a higher standard, in protecting children in their care from firearms. I believe this ordinance will potentially save lives, and if one live is saved, it is worth it.
Sincerely,
Renee Cazares
City of Napa
From:
Leslie and Pete Richmond
To:
Clerk
Subject:
Agenda Item 5C Safe Firearm Storage
Date:
Monday, January 16, 2023 10:10:46 PM
Dear Napa City Council,
I am writing in support of The Napa City Council's move forward to provide a safe firearm storage ordinance.
I have lived in Napa since 1990 and have raised my family here.
I joined Napa Valley Moms
Demand Action for Gun Sense in America shortly after the Pathway Home Shooting in Yountville where my daughter was on lockdown only a few hundreds yards from the shooting while her theatre group was practicing for an upcoming musical at the Lincoln Theatre.
That day changed her sense of feeling safe in
in the community she grew up in and has continued to resurface in her decisions such as finding a college she felt safe attending as well as other life changing decisions.
Our children deserve to feel safe
and I believe having a safe firearm storage ordinance is one way to add to their sense of security.
We
are all safer when guns are stored, unloaded, locked and stored separate from ammunition.
Thank you
for you consideration.
Leslie Richmond
[EXTERNAL]
Monthly
Spotlight
City of Napa’s
NAPA POLICE
DEPARTMENT
Records Bureau
City Council Regular Meeting
1/17/2023
Supplemental - Item 5.D.
From: City Staff
Agenda
INTRODUCTION
3 COMMUNITY SERVICES
4 CITY/COUNTY SERVICES
6 CHANGES
8 NIBRS
9 Introduction
My name is Joni Brown, and I am the Records Bureau
Administrator. In my role, I oversee Napa PD’s Records, Property & Evidence units. I have 7 FTE and 1 PTE in
Records and 2 FTE in Property & Evidence. Our Property & Evidence unit is our intake and housing for physical and digital evidence. They also hold items for safekeeping if found. You may think of police records as case files or crime reports. We also process information reports, traffic reports, citations, registrations, permits, fingerprinting, and much more. We manage the lobby; which is the place
where we come face-to-face with everyday citizens like you.
Community
Services
*All photos are stock photos online and do not portray NPD personnel or records Top 5 Counter Requests from Our Community
#3 – HOMELESS OUTREACH
• Follow- up on case
• Citizen Rights on certain
i
ncidents
• File a complaint
#2 – BACKGROUND CHECKS
• Employment
• Immigration
• Licensing
• Visas
• Personal use
• Housing Assistance
• Transportation Assistance
• Homeless Resources • Calls for service
• Crime Reports
• Arrest Data
• Crime Data
• SB 1421
• Crime Report
• Information Report
• Traffic Report
• Event Log
#4 – OFFICER REQUEST
#1 – COPY OF REPORT
#5 – PUBLIC RECORD ACT
REQUESTS
City and
County
Support
Services
*All photos are stock photos online and do not portray NPD personnel or records
Supporting Our City and County
DISTRICT ATTORNEY Filing, review, and prosecution
COUNTY COURT Notice to Appear for filing and prosecution RISK MANAGEMENT Restitution, city claims, litigations matters CITY ATTORNEY Collaborate for legal guidance on release of records CITY CLERK Collaborate on Public Record Act Requests
Changes to the Records
Bureau
MARK43
Napa Police Department was awarded a $1 million grant for a new Records Management System We officially went live December 6, 2022
NIBRS
NIBRS = National Incident-Based Reporting System
Part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program
Intended to help government, criminologists, community planners, and others better understand crime patterns and trends
FBI has mandated all Law Enforcement Agencies across the country make this transition to NIBRS to improve the overall quality, accuracy, and timeliness of crime-data collected NIBRS reporting
BEFORE NIBRS
9 BEFORE, UCR operated under a
hierarchy
Only the most serious crime was
reported
UCR had 8 “Serious Crime”
offenses, also known as Part 1
offenses such as Homicides, Rape,
Robbery, Aggravated Assault,
Burglary, Larceny, Motor Vehicle
Theft, Arson, & Human Trafficking.
NIBRS COLLECTS DETAILS ON VICTIMS, KNOWN OFFENDERS, ARRESTEES, AND PROPERTIES INVOLVED IN A CRIME No hierarchy rule exists
Allows up to 10 offenses per
incident
Expands the classification of
incidents to 52 (Group A) offenses
CRIME LOOKS HIGHER??
This may seem like the case, but it
is not necessarily the case
The reporting has changed making
it appear like crime is higher due
to the classification of numbers
WITH NIBRS
Examples
A person goes into a department store and steals three pairs of jeans and as they exit the store, they approach a person in the parking lot and yells “give me your cell phone or you will get hurt
.” Under UCR you would only record the robbery;
however, using NIBRS you report both the robbery
and the shoplifting.
Someone breaks into a residence with the intent to steal some items. The residents wake up and confront the burglar and a scuffle takes place. The burglar hits the husband in the head with a fireplace poker and pushes his wife to the floor. The burglar grabs some items and runs out the front door where he is apprehended by officers patrolling nearby. Both the husband and the wife recover from their injuries. In this incident, three criminal acts occurred – aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary. In the UCR system, using the hierarchy rule, only aggravated assault, the most serious offense would have been counted. In NIBRS system, all offenses are counted.
As you can see, the difference does not reflect an increase in criminal incidents but reflects the difference in the way criminal incidents are counted.
Thank you!
Quarterly
Recruitment
Update
Human
Resources
January 17, 2023
ATTACHMENT 1
City Council Regular Meeting
1/17/2023
Supplemental - Item 5.E.
From: City Staff
Full-Time Recruitment Metrics
(FY22/23 Q2)
Metric Total
Recruitments Completed 17
Positions Filled 23
Total Current Vacancies 56 in Q2 FY22-23
Current Active Recruitments 15
2 Part-Time Recruitment Metrics
(FY22/23 Q2)
Metric Total
Recruitments Requested 11
Recruitments Completed 10
Positions Filled 10
Upcoming Recruitments 4
3 Employee Turnover
4 0
2 4
6 8
10 12
14 16
18 20
Oct - Dec
2021
Jan - Mar
2022
Apr - June
2022
July - Sept
2022
Oct - Dec
2022
Employees
Highlights
• Flu Shot Clinic & Bivalent
COVID-19 Booster
5 Highlights
6 • Mid- Manager Retreat
held in October
• Executive Team Retreat
held in December
Highlights
• Second Employee
Wellness Challenge
completed
7 Highlights
8 • Successfully
completed negotiations
with two bargaining
units (AMP and PMU)
• Reached total tentative
agreements before the
end of calendar year
Highlights
• DEI Training Year 2
“Conscious Conversations”
completed for all City
Employees
9 Highlights
• Preventing Workplace
Harassment Training
completed for all City
employees
10 THANK YOU!
11 Long
-
Term
Financial
Forecast
January 17, 2023
City Council Regular Meeting
1/17/2023
Supplemental - 5.F.
From: City Staff
Roadmap
• Introduction
• Big Picture
• Historical
Comparison
• Preliminary Long-
Term Findings
– Key Assumptions
– Results
2 The Big Picture
• Revenues have recovered from pandemic
lows
• Expenditures have continued to increase
and are projected to be higher than
revenues in future years
– Inflation
– Labor Costs
– Self-Funded Insurances
3 50
60 70
80 90
100
110
120
FY19 Actual FY20 Actual FY21 Actual FY22 Actual FY23 Budget Millions
Operating Revenue Expenditures
General Fund Financial Status
4 Operating Revenue only shown; does not include one-time revenues used to balance the General Fund in FY20 through FY23
FY23 Projected Revenue: $114.6 M
Financial Status: FY 2022/23
• Sales Tax and Transient Occupancy Tax
have recovered and continue to grow
• Inflation and labor costs are rising rapidly
• One-Time dollars have been used since
FY20 to balance the General Fund
• General Fund Reserves are still fully
funded
5 Long-Term Financial Forecast
• Components
– Financial Trend Analysis – 6 Year History
• Rapid growth out of last recession can skew
analysis of current trends
• For many categories, FY20 and FY21 amounts
were outliers that had to be disregarded in the
analysis
– Financial Forecast – 5 Years Forward
• Economic Assumptions
• Anticipated Development
• Three Revenue Scenarios
– Most Likely, Optimistic, Pessimistic
6 Historical Revenue
• Property Tax: average annual increase of 6.4% from FY13 – FY22 • Sales Tax: average annual increase of 5.9% from FY13 – FY22 • TOT: average annual increase of 11.0% from FY13 – FY22 • Timeframe includes 5 new hotels and 1 hotel expansion 7 0
5 10
15 20
25 30
35 40
45 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Millions
Primary Revenue Sources
Property Tax Sales Tax Transient Occupancy Tax
The Forecast….
The Forecast….
The Forecast….
• Is a model that shows us what
MIGHT happen in the future
• Revenue estimates based on our
current best guess of economic
outlook
• Expenditure estimates based on
historical growth rates → what
happens if we keep doing what we’ve
been doing
What is the forecast?
• A set of reasonable, most likely assumptions
about future revenues and expenditures based
on current budget/trends
• Changes to assumptions → Changes in the
forecast
• GFOA best practice for fiscal management
• Planning Tool
– Allows us to model future impacts of current budget
decisions
– Allows us to see surplus / deficit trends over time
– Assists us with making changes needed to avoid future deficits
The Forecast….
• Is not a budget – Council has final authority to
establish the budget and amend it as needed
• Is not a labor relations plan – Collective
bargaining is a separate process from
forecasting; assumptions in the forecast are for
modeling purposes only
• Is not a set of promises – COLA increase
assumptions, operating budget growth
assumptions, etc. are for modeling purposes only
• Is not set in stone – Assumptions are changed
over time in response to a variety of factors and
trends
Forecast
• What’s Included
– Economic Assumptions
– Major Development Currently Underway plus
Anticipated Growth
– Transfers Based on Current Fiscal Policy
• What’s Not Included
– ARPA Funding
– New Positions
– Funding for Current Unfunded Needs
– New or Enhanced Programs / Services
13 Forecast Assumptions
Annual Revenue Growth Rates
• Property Tax: 4.0% throughout forecast
• Sales Tax: 3.2% average annual growth
• Transient Occupancy Tax
– 2.0% average annual growth for existing
development; same as pre-pandemic growth
– Estimated projected new development
14 Property, Sales & TOT Revenue
Most Likely Scenario
15 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Primary Revenue Sources
Property Tax Sales Tax Transient Occupancy Tax
Most Likely Revenue Forecast
16 97.2 89.3 86.7
101.9 108.6
118.0 122.4 127.5 132.0 136.5
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Property Tax Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT)
Sales Tax Other Revenues
Transfers In
Revenue Scenarios
• Optimistic
– Assumes ongoing economic activity at higher
levels than pre-pandemic; more hotel
development opening during forecast period
• Pessimistic
– Not a recession scenario – assumes slower
growth rates and less hotel development
17 Revenue Uncertainty
18 80
90 100
110
120
130
140
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
Millions
Most Likely
Revenue Uncertainty
19 80
90 100
110
120
130
140
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
Millions
Most Likely
Forecast Assumptions
Annual Expenditure Growth Rates
• Based on historical trends, core City services
• Staffing: No new positions
• Salaries & Wages: 4.35% combined rate for
COLA and step increases, based on current ratio
of employees at top step and 5-year average
Bay Area CPI
• 3.3% annual increase in healthcare/dental costs
• 4.3% average annual increase in CalPERS
normal costs (payroll)
• CalPERS UAL payments peak in FY24 at
$14.2M, then gradually reduce down to $12.9M
in FY28
20 Projected CalPERS Costs
General Fund Only
21 11.5
13.4 14.1
17.2 17.1
21.0 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.3
0 5
10 15
20 25
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Normal Cost UAL
Projected CalPERS UAL
22 -
2 4
6 8
10 12
14 16
18 2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
2034-35
2035-36
2036-37
2037-38
2038-39
2039-40
2040-41
2041-42
2042-43
2043-44
2044-45
CalPERS UAL Projection; All City Funds
264 - Miscellaneous Plan 265 - Safety Plan
Forecast Assumptions
Annual Expenditure Growth Rates
• Semi-Discretionary
– Services & Supplies: 9.4%
• Utilities, Property Tax Administration Fees, Software Licenses, Payments to Other Agencies, etc.
– Internal Services: Fleet 4.4%, Risk 11.7%
• Discretionary
– Services & Supplies: 2.6%
• Professional Services, General Supplies,
Travel/Training, etc.
– Transfer to Sidewalks Program: $0.9
million/year
23 Forecast Assumptions
Annual Expenditure Growth Rates
• Transfers Out per Fiscal Policy
– CIP Facilities Reserve: 2% of Operating
Budget
– CIP General Fund Reserve: 1% of Operating
Budget, plus $0.10 million for the General Plan
– Equipment Replacement Reserve: $0.15
million/year
– General Fund Reserves: bring balances up to
equal 14% (Emergency), 5% (Operating), or
1% (Contingency) of Operating Budget
24 Expenditure Forecast
25 59.3 60.3 57.4 61.5 67.7 73.7 76.3 79.5 82.8 86.2
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits
Expenditure Forecast
26 8.2 9.3 10.2 11.7
12.4 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.3 12.9
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL
Expenditure Forecast
27 5.8 6.8 6.9
8.2 7.4
8.1 8.8 9.6 10.5 11.5
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL Semi-Discretionary Exp
Expenditure Forecast
28 7.7 7.4 5.8
6.9 10.0
10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL Semi-Discretionary Exp Discretionary Exp Expenditure Forecast
29 5.6 6.6 6.8
7.5 8.9
9.6 10.4 11.2 12.2 13.3
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL Semi-Discretionary Exp
Discretionary Exp Internal Services
Expenditure Forecast
30 7.2 5.1 5.6
4.8 4.6
5.5 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.1
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL Semi-Discretionary Exp
Discretionary Exp Internal Services Transfers Out
Expenditure Forecast
31 93.8 95.4 92.6
100.6
110.8 114.1
121.4 125.0
130.5 135.9 141.4
-
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY23
Est
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Salaries & Benefits PERS UAL Semi-Discretionary Exp
Discretionary Exp Internal Services Transfers Out
Revenues & Expenditures
32 -
20 40
60 80
100
120
140
160
FY19
Actual
FY20
Actual
FY21
Actual
FY22
Actual
FY23
Budget
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
Usage of General Fund Reserves
33 0
5 10
15 20
25 30
FY24
Proj
FY25
Proj
FY26
Proj
FY27
Proj
FY28
Proj
Millions
General Fund Reserves
General Fund Reserves Reserves w/Optimistic Revenue
Reserves w/Pessimistic Revenue
• Revenues are recovering but expect slower
growth in the next few years
• Potential future impacts from economic
slowdown, continued COVID-19 variants, etc.
• Expenditures have grown at a rapid pace; if
growth continues at this rate City will experience
operating deficits
• Reserves are sufficient to cover deficits, but
would need a plan to replenish reserves
34 Summary
What’s Next?
• January 31: City Council will be asked to set
budget priorities at their workshop
• February 21: FY23 Mid-Year Report; will update
revenue budgets
• City Staff will then compile recommendations
based on Council priorities for the FY 2023/24
and FY 2024/25 budget cycle. Going forward will
continue to use the Forecast and Mid-Year
Report to evaluate revenue and adjust budgets
as needed if growth differs from expectations.
35 Comments / Questions?
36 End of Presentation
37 SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTS & COMMUNICATIONS
Office of the City Clerk
City Council of the City of Napa
Regular Meeting
January 17, 2023
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPA
AFTERNOON SESSION:
SUBMITTED DURING OR AFTER THE MEETING
3. PUBLIC COMMENT:
1) Handout from Thomas Sykes received on January 17, 2023. ^\y
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