CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA JUNE 2023
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 ATTACHMENT 1
Employment Recovery Comparison, United States, Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession, Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 = 100,
Monthly to April 2023, Seasonally Adjusted
2 Source: BLS and EFA
102.6
75.0 80.0
85.0 90.0
95.0 100.0
105.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 Great Recession COVID-19
Inflation on the Clock: 2007 to 2025 and beyond
3 What to Watch
• Yield Curves
• Housing prices
• Wages
• Employment levels
• FED Rhetoric
Can we get back to 2%?
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2023 1.3 1.3 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.7
2024 1.4 1.0 4.2 4.3 2.3 2.3
2025 2.2 2.4 4.2 4.4 2.1 2.0
2026 1.5 2.3 4.1 4.3 N/A N/A
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from May 2023
Bottom Line: Economy slower now through 2024, as lingering inflation and relatively high interest rates spread costs over next two years minimum
Napa at a Glance: end of Q2 2023
5
Employment Trends: City Residents Working or Looking for Work, Jan 2019 to March 2023
6
T ourism, Average Daily Rate ($) and
Occupancy Rate (%), April 2019 to April 2023
7
Housing: % Change Median Home Price Jan 2021 to Jan 2023 Median Rents, Jan 2019 to Jan 2023,
City of Napa and Selected Cities and Counties
8 Source: ZillowTM Research
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Three Year From Peak
Equity Measures: Severe Housing Burden
City of Napa and Selected Cities and Counties
9 Housing Burden
% of Households with Rent as at
least 30% of monthly income
Place 2010 2015 2020 2021
Napa City 24.8% 25.2% 23.9% 24.0%
Napa County 24.3% 23.8% 23.4% 24.6%
Sonoma 26.5% 27.5% 24.7% 25.0%
Marin 26.8% 27.2% 24.0% 24.4%
Solano 26.8% 28.5% 24.5% 25.2%
Yamhill 24.8% 26.6% 21.6% 23.5%
Fairfield 26.1% 25.9% 22.4% 23.7%
Livermore 25.7% 22.2% 19.8% 21.0%
Petaluma 26.7% 22.2% 21.0% 20.3%
San Rafael 31.1% 29.7% 29.5% 27.9%
Santa Cruz 31.4% 37.2% 32.5% 29.9%
Temecula 29.1% 28.2% 24.1% 26.3%
Monterey 20.3% 24.8% 24.8% 25.4%
CA 26.7% 28.2% 26.2% 26.3%
US 23.9% 24.6% 22.7% 22.9%
Housing Burden: % of after-tax income paid for rent
or ownership (these data are just rentals)
• A percent over 50% is considered “severely
burdened” in housing advocacy circles
• City of Napa near 25% of renters since 2010
• Caveats
• Burden is a function of housing costs and
incomes
• Napa is 10th highest of this group as of
2021 (the latest Census data)
City of Napa: Things to Watch
• Toward 2024
• Macroeconomic context remains uncertain: foreign and domestic • Expect interest rates to fall slightly, slower economy into 2024 • Inflation remains stubborn to tame
• Travel industry:
• Likely another strong year for Napa
• Longer-term: how do Bay Area jobs shifts affect Napa demand? • Housing forecast slightly better toward summer 2024
• Lower interest rates and lower inventory mixing together • Rents still rising: once interest rates fall, likely a race to available homes 10
Thanks!
Questions?
[email protected]
@bobby7007
11