CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA SEPT 2023
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
2 ATTACHMENT 1
Inflation’s Fall to Where? PCE Core Prices, 2007 to 2025 3 What to Watch
• Continued downward
m
omentum
• Jobs losses as opportunity
cost for these changes
• Small to medium size
business and future
FED will not lower rates
until:
1. Job losses begin
2. This index moves more
completely thro
ugh
th
ese dots
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2023 1.3 2.1 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7
2024 1.0 1.3 4.3 4.0 2.3 2.4
2025 2.4 2.1 4.4 4.2 2.0 2.1
2026 2.3 1.7 4.3 4.1 N/A N/A
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from August 2023
Bottom Line: Economy more resilient than previous forecasts, inflation beginning its descent; relatively high interest rates will continue pressure economy to 2025
Napa at a Glance: end of Q2 2023
5
Labor Market: Napa Residents, Quarterly
2019 Q1 to 2023 Q2
6
Wage Data: Marin County and Selected Areas 2019,
2022 and 2023, 2023 $, Median Wages
7 $28.26
$23.64 $23.86
$34.31
$24.02
$29.40
$24.00 $24.29
$37.64
$24.73
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
Marin Napa Sonoma SF CA
2019 2022 2023
Sources: California EDD and MEF
City of Napa: Things to Watch
• Continued slow movement and end of summer surge
• More optimistic forecasts may help travel
• Some threats to wine industry recovery and growth
• As inflation falls, will interest rates follow?
• Travel industry:
• Sep tember and October to finalize tale of 2023
• S lower than 2022, had to expect that, still regional leader here in Napa • Workforce Development regionally
• Napa as a place to work: industry mix reduced in diversity • R esources are available: WANB
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