Workforce Alliance of
the North Bay
Labor Market Analysis & Strategy
APRIL 202 3
232 N Almon St. Moscow, ID 83843
(208) 883-3500 | FAX: (208) 882 -3317
www.lightcast.io
ATTACHMENT 2
2 About
Lightcast is the world’s leading authority on job skills, workforce talent, and labor market dynamics, providing expertise that empowers businesses, edu- cation providers, and governments to find the skills and talent they need and enabling workers to unlock new career opportunities. Headqu artered in Bos- ton, Massachusetts, and Moscow, Idaho, Lightcast is active in more than 30 countries and has offices in the United Kingdom, Italy, New Zealand, and In- dia. The company is backed by global private equity leader KKR.
Lightcast
232 N Almon Street
Moscow, ID 83843
lightcast.io
Acknowledgements
Lightcast gratefully acknowledges the support of Workforce Alliance of the North Bay . A special thank you goes to Bruce Wilson and Sylwia Palczewska for their leadership, collaboration, and commitment to the success and prosperity of the North Bay region and all of the counties – individual and collectively – that comprise it.
This report is prepared for Workforce Alliance of the North Bay by Lightcas t. The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of Workforce Alliance of the North Bay . Proper acknowledgement of Lightcast should be included in publications, presentations, or other develope d materials.
3 Contents
Overview 4
Economic Overview 7
Key Industries 7
Occupations and Skills in Demand 9
Real-Time Job Demand as Reflected in Job Postings Data 10 Digital Skills 12
Workforce Capacity and Alignment to Local Industry Needs 13 Demographics, Workforce and Community Characteristics 13 Focus for Workforce Development Investments 16
Strategi c Recommendations 17
Strategic Partnership Framework 18
Phase 1 – Talent Attraction 18
Phase 2 – Transferable Skills 20
Phase 3 – Technical and Certificate Programs 22
Phase 4 – Advanced Skill Sets 22
Phase 5 – Information Gap 23
Phase 6 – Starting Early 24
Advancing the Str ategic Framework as a Community 24
4 Overview
5 The Workforce Alliance of the North Bay (WANB) retained Lightcast to conduct a custom analysis, providing insights to the state of workforce in the North Bay region, with focused breakouts of each county within the WANB region. This first breakout summary focuses on Napa County. The organization’s goal is to understand the North Bay counties’ baseline economic conditions, current workforce capacity, job demand, key skills gaps, and the strategic opportunities created by industry shifts, migration trends, and the rise of remote work since the Covid -19 pandemic.
Insights presented in this report will inform local
workforce priorities to help align education and
skills training investments with emerging
industry needs and facilitate the economic
mobility of citizens along key career pathways.
Which industries drive your local economy,
which occupations and skills are most important
to those industries, and where might t here be
gaps between industry needs and the talent
development pipeline?
A comprehensive talent alignment strategy balances focus on the now, near, and far:
▪ Matching current workforce with job openings in the near -term; ▪ Attracting and retaining a skilled talent pool in the region; ▪ Addressing the unique barriers to labor force participation for different target populations ▪ Providing visible on -ramps and bridges to high quality career pathways; ▪ Leveraging and improving the responsiveness of short -term train ing and workforce develop- ment funds to target key skills gaps;
This report provides insights
and recommendations to help
drive workforce investment
priorities and the development
of collaborative community
partnerships.
6 ▪ Aligning post -secondary certificate and degree programs with industry needs; ▪ Back mapping industry needs into K -16 education; and ▪ Building the awareness of high -potential career pathways for those currently in the education pipeline or in career transition.
Strategic recommendations are intended to be actionable for a wide range of stakeholders including workforce and economic development organizations, K -12 and higher education systems, commu- nity and civic leaders, and policy makers. Advancing community goals will require stakeholders to (1) coordinate and collaborate ; (2) follow the lead of employers ; and (3) focus on skills.
7 Economic Overview – Napa County
Key Industries
Napa County’s main industries are diverse, reflecting the nature of the region as well as its workforce. When looking at a 2 -digit NAICS breakdown, Napa County’s largest industries are Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Services, followed by Government.
The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the Top 10 industries at a more granular 3 -digit NAICS level, shedding light on their expected growth, average earnings and location quotient 1.
Reflecting Napa County’s unique setting, the share of jobs in Be verage Manufacturing is 75.22 times larger than the national average. In addition to this extraordinarily large location quotient (LQ), Beverage Manufacturing provides more employment than the next two largest industries, combined.
With the exception of Local Government, the remaining Top 10 industries are expected to grow or stay level in upcoming years, with the largest (percentage) growth forecasted within the Accommodation and Social Assistance Industries.
1 Location Quotient quantifies the concentration of a particular industry, occupation or cluster. It can reveal what makes a particular region unique in comparison to the national average.
8 Industry (3-digit NAICS) 2022
Jobs
2028
Jobs
2022 -
2028
Change
2022 - 2028
% Change
Avg.
Earnings
2028
LQ
Beverage (and Tobacco Prod-
uct) Manufacturing
12,555 13,061 506 4% $103,867 75.22
Food Services and Drinking
Places
6,929 8,270 1,340 19% $46,704 1.30
Local Government 5,840 5,691 -149 -3 $115,010 0.81
Accommodation 4,022 4,955 932 23% $58,316 5.27
State Government 3,980 4,091 110 3% $114,537 1.55
Administrative and Support
Services
3,435 3,437 2 0% $55,664 0.66
Support Activities for
Agriculture and Forestry
3,363 4,018 654 19% $65,737 13.53
Social Assistance 3,018 3,685 667 22% $39,931 1.39
Specialty Trade Contractors 2,896 2,911 16 1% $87,991 0.95 Ambulatory Health Care
Services
2,859 3,330 471 16% $109,792 0.71
In order to better guide training and upskilling efforts and understand the strengths and weaknesses of the region, it is important to not only look at the industries expecting the largest growth, but also at those expecting the largest shed of jobs, as a way of anti cipating potential talent pools that will be available in the region.
In Napa County, Food Services and Drinking Places and Accommodation are the industries expect- ing the highest growth in upcoming years, with a combined total of 2,272 new jobs by 2028. O n the other hand, Hospitals, Educational Services and Local Government are forecasted to experience the greatest decreases, with a total of 500 lost jobs. Facilitating the relocation of workers from one industry to another can help promote economic stabili ty and lateral mobility across industries.
Spotlight on Beverage Manufacturing (Winemaking):
It is no surprise that Napa County has an extraordinary concentration of employment and output in the Beverage
Manufacturing industry , with 3% continued growth pr ojected through 2027.
High average earnings per job within Beverage Manufacturing reflects the industry’s diversified staffing pattern - offering jobs across a broad spectrum of functions, education/skills
requirements, and salary ranges.
Within the industry, demand for severa l higher wage professional roles is expected to grow by 2028. Sales Representatives, General Operation Managers and First - Beverage
manufacturing, with
a 75.22 location
quotient is expected
to see 3% growth
through 2027.
9 Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers expect a 4% increase in wages, placing their average wages between $38 and $49 pe r hour.
This provides unique opportunities for industry leaders and workforce development partners to build high-mobility career pathways across different occupation subsectors, i.e. production, sales and marketing, business and financial operations, admin istrative support. More detail on the require- ments, average wages and expected growth for Beverage Manufacturing Occupations can be found in Appendix 1.
In contrast, staffing patterns in Food Services & Drinking Places and Accommodation do not show the same breadth of opportunity or wage potential. As an example, First -Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers earn a median hourly wage less than the MIT living wage 2 for a single adult with no children in Napa County ($21.62/hr or $44,970 annually).
According to Mercer’s Inside Employees’ Minds 2022 report 3, retail and hospitality employees are “raising concerns about their long -term financial wellness and are looking for increased support from their employers.” Wage increases seen during and after the Covid -19 pandemic have been diluted by inflation and persistent workforce shortages make it difficult for employers to offer pre- dictable scheduling or flexibility. In order to retain hospitality employees, it will be necessary for employers to keep pace with compe nsation in adjacent industries and address workplace policies that affect employee engagement.
Occupations and Skills in Demand
2 https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/06055
3 https://www.mercer.us/our -thinking/2022 -inside -employees -minds-in-the-retail -industry.html
10 The top three jobs (by volume) in Napa County are
Farmworkers & Laborers, Home Health & Personal Care
Aides, and Cashiers. Automation Indices above 100 for
Farmworkers & Laborers, Cashiers, Waiters &
Waitresses, and Fast Food & Counter Workers indicate
those jobs have an above average risk of being
displaced as industries automate tasks . In spite of high automation indices , demand for most frontline roles in Napa County’s key industries is projected to grow
robustly, likely exacerbating current worker shortages .
Eight of the Top 10 occupations in Napa County earn median wages below $40,000 (and fall below $30,000 when adjusted for Napa County’s cost of living) while Registered Nurses and General & Operations Managers command the highest wages, with yearly wages over $100k. The table below provides more detail on the Top 10 occupations in Napa County.
Top 10 Occupations - by volume 2022
Jobs
2028
Jobs
2022 -
2028 %
Change
2022
Hires
Annual
Openings 2028 LQ Automation
Index
Median
Annual
Earnings
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop,
Nursery, and Greenhouse 3,524 3,896 11% 6,849 656 11.51 113 $33,187 Home Health and Personal Care Aides 2,602 3,141 21% 1,961 520 1.35 93.6 $30,243 Cashiers 1,922 1,901 -1% 1,902 362 1.12 105.5 $33,530
Waiters and Waitresses 1,810 2,118 17% 2,411 450 1.84 129.8 $33,488 Retail Salespersons 1,554 1,628 5% 1,356 243 0.81 93.4 $34,653 Registered Nurses 1,528 1,493 -2% 322 86 0.88 85.3 $134,493 Fast Food and Counter Workers 1,411 1,623 15% 2,045 363 0.89 130.8 $34,133 General and Operations Managers 1,401 1,536 10% 794 150 0.86 82.2 $102,419 Demonstrators and Product Promoters 1,264 1,296 3% 1,169 238 53.87 106.9 $38,230 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,231 1,436 17% 1,225 219 2.38 124.5 $34,777
Real-Time Job Demand as Reflected in Job Postings Data
Lightcast supplements traditional survey -based labor market information sources with proprietary real-time job postings data, which provides more timely intelligence on demand for occupations, skills, and levels of education within a selected geography. The forward -looking nature of job post- ings data captures current and emerging labor market trends, of particular interest for communities working to align education and training programs to rapidly -evolving industry needs.
Automation Indices for
some occupations indicate
those jobs have a high risk
of displacement as
industries automate tasks.
11 Napa County had a total of 27,229 unique job postings during 2022. Monthly postings volume hit a peak in March 2022 with 2,926 postings, then ticked downward to end the year with 1,737 post- ings in December.
Employers with the largest number of postings in Napa County during 2022 represented Healthcare/Hospital systems, Hotels and Resorts, State Government, and Accounting - Related Services. Job postings demand for accounting services were centered with Moss Ad ams, a large public accounting firm with a Napa office specializing in services to wineries and vineyards.
A diverse array of specialized skills
that are prevalent in Food Service,
Accommodation, Retail Sales, and
Healthcare are in demand in Napa
County. Many of the top common
skills are transferable across indus-
tries and can provide a durable
foundation for future career path-
ways.
An important set of skills that have
gained more relevance in recent
years are software skills. For some
occupations and jo b titles, software skills become essential, core skills. For other occupations, they are important complements that might provide an advantage to a worker interviewing or attempting to relocate into another occupation.
In Napa County, more traditional Mi crosoft Office skills are in highest demand and are also fre- quently listed in worker profiles, reflecting a balance of supply and demand. Less traditional soft- ware skills, such as SAP Applications and SQL, with a gap between demand and the frequency listed in profiles provide opportunities for targeted training efforts.
Another important aspect when looking
at Job Postings are the specific creden-
tials or qualifications demanded by em-
ployers in the region. In Napa County,
qualifications related to the Healt hcare
industry experience the highest de-
mand, with Registered Nurse, Basic
Life Support (BLS) Certification and
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Certification (CPR) requested the
most often in job postings.
151
154
156
168
183
760
797
1,170
1,624
1,796
HyperText Markup…
SQL (Programming Language)
Google Workspace
Operating Systems
SAP Applications
Microsoft Word
Microsoft PowerPoint
Microsoft Outlook
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Excel
Postings
971
985
1,215
1,220
1,333
1,512
1,617
1,635
1,654
2,228
Hotel Operations
Food Safety and Sanitation
Auditing
Selling Techniques
Housekeeping
Accounting
Merchandising
Nursing
Marketing
Restaurant Operation
Postings
12 Digital Skills
In line with trends identified in Lightcast research Rural’s Rise 4, job postings have increased in Napa County while postings were down significantly in San Francisco County during 2022 as com- pared to 2019 . However, an analysis of skills demand growth does not indicate a significant in- crease in technology skills demand that rural population centers outside of Silicon Valley may have anticipated. Rather than an abrupt increase in tech nology skills demand, Napa County should ex- pect organic demand growth as legacy sectors adopt digital skills requirements across functions, including frontline roles .
County
Unique Job Postings
January - December 2019
Unique Job Postings
January - December 2022
Percentage change
San Francisco 425,618 371,533 -13%
Napa 17,419 27,229 +56%
Some digital skills are foundational, for example data entry, e -mail, e-commerce transactions, and timekeeping software. Others are industry -specific skills, such as restaurant servers using a point- of-sale interface or nursing assistants using Epic, an electronic medical records system. Investing in digital skills development, even for frontline roles can pay off in higher wages and reduced productivity bottlenecks. 5
4 https://lightcast.io/resources/research/rurals -rise
5 https://nationalskillscoalition.org/wp -content/uploads/2023/02/NS C-DigitalDivide_report_Feb2023.pdf
13 Workforce Capacity and Al ignment to Local
Industry Needs
Demographics, Workforce and Community Characteristics
Napa County’s population is projected to shrink 3% by 2030 , shedding nearly 4,500 residents.
The expected decrease is concentrated in two race and ethnicity categories: White, non -Hispanic residents ( -10,000+) and American Indian or Alaskan Native, Non -Hispanic ( -90).
The region experienced a net loss of 882 residents in 2020 (5,319 inbound and 6,201 outbound migrations), drawing and losing residents primarily from/to other counties in California. The high est net out -migration was to Solano County, Lake County, Sonoma County, Sacramento County, and Ada County, I daho.
When building a community workforce strategy, it is help- ful to dive deeper into population trends to identify which age cohorts are expected t o grow as a share of the re- gion’s population. By 2030, Napa County is projected to see a declining youth population tempered by a mod-
erate increase in 35 –54-year-olds, generally considered to be in their prime -earning years. An increasing number of older r esidents, ages 75+ will place increased demand on regional health care systems that are already grappling with workforce shortages.
Surrounding counties in the North Bay region are expected to see growth in younger population, ages 15-24, a trend that Napa County employers should plan to leverage for staffing entry -level jobs in key frontline industries like Beverage Manufacturing, Food Services and Drinking Risk of retirement is high
in the region and the mile-
nial population is lower
than the national average.
14 Places, and Accommodation. To attract young talent, it will be key to demonstrate career pathway potential via the foundational skills gained in these entry -level roles.
Napa County’s unemployment rate in November 2022 was 3.15%, decreasing from 3.68% 5 years before and from a peak of 9.08% during the 2020 pandemic year. A threat to Napa County’s full economic recovery is a decreasing labor force participation rate - the t otal of the county’s citizens who are employed or officially considered unemployed divided by total population over age
16. Shrinking labor force participation, even when unemployment is low, means fewer people are able or willing to engage in the workforc e.
Indicators Napa County
Population (2022)
135,886
Labor Force (Sept. 2022) 70,669
Jobs (2022) 81,473
Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2022) 3.16%
Unemployment in 2020 9.08%
Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov. 2022) 60.78%
Labor Force Participation Rate (2017) 65.19%
According to the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) , Napa County’s 4.9% poverty level is well below the national average of 9.1%, however the cost of living is significantly higher than the national average – which impacts citizens and the workforce in many ways. Child- care costs, which can be a driver of labor force participation, are a higher share of household income in Napa County than elsewhere in the US. For medium U S counties (populatio n 100,000 - 499,999), the median yearly price for infant center -based care in 2022 was $11,354 in 2022, 13.9% of family income. By comparison, Napa County families pay a median $18,909, a 17.3% share of their income.
Indicators Napa County
Median Household Income
$92,219
% Poverty Level 4.9%
Cost of Living 144.1
Childcare Price as Share of Family Income6 17.3%
Median Yearly Childcare Price7 $18,909
6 Infant Center Based 2022
7 Infant Center Based 2022
15 According to the ACS, j ust 1.4% of Napa County commuters take public transportation to work, with the vast majority (74.9%) driving alone to work - another financial consideration when gasoline prices are high .
How do available jobs in Napa County match up to residents’ education levels? The majority of jobs (65%) in Napa County require either no formal education or a high school diploma only, while 22% require a Bachelor’s degree and 5% a graduate degree or higher. However, Associate’s, Bachelor’s and
graduate degree holders are
oversupplied in Napa County
relative to job demand which
indicates many residents may be
underemployed in roles with
lower requirements .
This dynamic, coupled with worker
preferences for roles with
predictable hours and flexibility
could drive those with more
education and sought -after skills
(thus, more bargaining power) to
seek employment outside of Napa
County or seek a job that can be performed remotely.
In fact, 7.3% of Napa County residents report working exclusively from home – exactly the national average. Just under 30,000 Napa County residents commute to other counties for work, with roughly 15% of those commuting to either Marin or San Francisco County. 36,000+ workers commute to Napa County, with more than 35% of those coming from neighboring Solano Cou nty.
25%
40%
7%
1%
22%
5%
15%
18%
21%9%
24%
13%
No Formal Education
Required
High School Diploma
or Equivalent
Some College, Non-
Degree Award
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate Degree and
Higher
Population at
Educational Level
Jobs Requiring
Educational Level
16 Focus for Workforce Development Investments
Of particular interest to workforce development organizations are jobs in demand that require credentials beyond high school, but not necessarily a degree. Training for those roles can often be funded through federal and state workforce development program s and provides an entry point to high-mobility career pathways. Top posted jobs in Napa County that require more than a high school diploma but not a Bachelor’s degree include Bookkeeping, Accounting & Auditing Clerks, Nursing Assistants, Licensed Practica l & Licensed Vocational Nurses, and Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics.
As additional education and credentials are obtained, these middle skill jobs can serve as a springboard for career pathway advancement and economic mobility. For example, the top “next - step” jobs for Bookkeeping, Accounting & Auditing Clerks are Accountants & Auditors and Financial Managers, both of which offer a significant salary differential.
Feeder Occupation Opportunity Occupations Mean Salary Difference
▪ Bookeeping,
Accounting and
Auditing Clerks
▪ Accountants and Auditors
▪ Financial Managers
$27,305
$70,101
▪ First-Line Supervisors of Office and
Administrative Support Workers
▪ Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks
$13,503
$6,026
▪ Property, Real Estate, and
Community Association Managers $7,787
▪ Credit Counselors $9,956
17 Strategic Recommendations
These recommendations are designed to help Workforce Alliance of the North Bay leaders and their community partners cultivate a sustainable workforce pipeline that nurtures the growth of key industries, employers, and jobs that provide long -term career development and economic mobility for citizens of Napa County.
Understanding Macro Trends
The walls between economic and workforce development have come down as regions recognize that talent drives economic growth, and the availability of skilled talent is a top concern for companies considering whether to locate or expand in an area.
Successful regions are promoting the capacity of their
current workforce in addition to a cohesive strategy for building a sustainable and adaptable talent pipeline -
giving employers the confidence they can grow. It is
important to shorten the feedback loops between
economic and workforce development an d align around
shared targets for attracting high -quality jobs to the region while simultaneously building a skills
development pipeline that fuels continued growth - a
virtuous circle.
The historically tight labor market is unlikely to reverse course as the drivers of local and national workforce shortages are largely structural - rather than situational. While short -term interventions can show impact, communities should invest in cross -sector planning and innovation to develop creative strategies that address long -term demographic trends, industry shifts and the effects of digital disruption across sectors.
Workforce alignment has evolved from “selling” candidates for jobs to “selling” job opportunities to citizens. Alongside efforts to attract business to locate and expand, regions must also focus on the drivers of talent retention and attraction, with a compelling value proposition aroun d high-mobility career opportunities and vibrant quality of life.
In the North Bay region, there are unique challenges around several key industries as well as unique opportunities given the proximity to the Bay Area’s tech ecosystem and the impl ications of changes in work arrangements/preferences since the Covid -19 pandemic. If not addressed, low labor force participation and high cost of living could be a drag on continued economic recovery.
Undersupply of jobs for degree -holders could fuel cont inued out-migration.
Workforce alignment has
evolved from “selling”
candidates for jobs to
“selling” job opportunities
to citizens.
18 A Strategic Partnership Framework
Strategic recommendations are organized around six phases of talent attraction/development, each with its own planning horizon, unique set of key stakeholders, and time -to-payoff for the community. A comprehensive community strategy will invest simultaneously in all phases - to compound future benefits and buffe r against shifts in market conditions. An effective workforce strategy should also be integrated with community planning for housing, infrastructure (i.e. broadband, transportation), childcare, and livability amenities.
PHASE 1 - Talent Attraction (0 to 6 Months)
Focus: Better matching of current workforce with local job openings; attracting skilled out -of-market talent to fill jobs where demand eclipses local workforce capacity. ▪ Labor market data cannot substitute for direct consultation with the end -customers of your area’s talent “supply chain” – local employers. Leverage your data to provide a shared understanding of local labor market conditions and augment this with primary accounts of employers’ current hiring needs/challenges, emerging skills requ irements, and their expectations for future demand.
19 ▪ Encourage employers to examine job descriptions and confirm that skills and experience requirements match job responsibilities. Coach job seekers to include in -demand specialized skills and qualifications , as well common skills and software skills on their resume and online profiles.
▪ Seek immediate labor force participation gains by reducing fragmentation in job search and career support services across the region; develop centralized ways to market job opportunities and promote programs available to support immediate employment (i.e. childcare subsidies, short term reskilling programs).
▪ Help employers widen their talent pools by considering non -traditional or “hidden” talent - for example, veterans transit ioning back into civilian life or the formerly incarcerated - and promote skills -based hiring as a better measure to assess whether a candidate can successfully perform a job. Recent findings by Bain & Company 8, using Lightcast data indicate that more than 60% of middle -skill jobs require a bachelor’s degree when, in actuality, a four -year degree is not a good proxy fo r the skills needed to perform the job.
Putting the focus on skills over degrees in the hiring process widens potential talent pools and aligns criteria more closely with future job performance. ▪ Work with industry partners to market local hospitality, food service, and personal care jobs as “launchpads” where workers can build in -demand transferable skills. Promote employers in those industries that provide upskilling, career development, and/or tuition reimbursement for further education. 9
▪ Remote work is successfully drawing disabled workers off the sidelines 10. Work with local industry and employer group s to assess where you might build pockets of remote -enabled employment opportunities targeted for Napa County’s disabled population. ▪ Understand the concerns of current and potential workers about the jobs and quality of life in your community. With industr y and economic development partners, establish a profile of your key targets for talent attraction. Leverage migration trends data (see below) to identify competitive markets for relocation, especially markets where relocating to the North Bay area may pro vide a comparative wage gain. For example, the five markets below are ranked by
8 https://www.bain.com/insights/eliminate -a-degree -of-difficulty -hire-for-skills -not-school 9 https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/hotels -new-job-pitch-career-growth -5194865/ 10 https://fortune.com/2023/02/24/remote -work-disabled -employment -record-high-remote -work-office-man- dates/
20 the opportunity to attract Registered Nurses, which will continue to be a vital role in Napa County as the aging population grows and requires more health care services.
County
Total Pool of
RNs
Earnings Gain if
Relocate
Los Angeles, CA 94,720 $11.09
Salt Lake, UT 12,746 $13.00
San Francisco, CA 12,488 $7.44
Maricopa, AZ 40,551 $14.32
DuPage, IL 11,047 $13.87
▪ Drive out -of-market prospects to a website that sells the advantages of living and working in your region, based on an understanding of their top concerns. ▪ Leverage tech industry dispersion and remote work trends as an opportunity to attract technology workers to fill key roles now or work remotely from the North Bay area. Identify whether there are opportunities to transition displaced H1 -B Visa holders to local technology roles, even in legacy industries.
▪ Partner with destination marketing organizations in the North Bay region to promote opportunities to live and work to area visitors. Leverage the region’s natural assets and concentration of hospitality amenities to attract remote or contract/contingent workers, (like travel nurses). Promote local opportunities to current remote workers through network ing events and/or marketing in those “third spaces” where remote workers congregate.
PHASE 2- Transferable Skills (6 Months to 2 Years)
Focus: Upskilling and reskilling workers already in your area with short -term training and creden- tials that are nimble enough to evolve with market demand ▪ Confirm with employer partners their hiring timeline projections for key positions (i.e. plan to hire 15 new production workers in Q3) and the skills required to qualify for the roles. Where the skills of available talen t don’t match up, work with employers and training providers to spin up responsive short -term credentialing programs.
▪ Create incentives to upskill/reskill by prioritizing programs that are short -term, low or no cost, provide stackable (micro)credentials and rolling enrollment opportunities. Incentivize employers to offer upskilling to incumbent workers on -the-job or to hire an employee before
21 training commences. Connect training and upskilling to “next jobs” along priority pathways.
Backfill vacated roles with new entrants from bridge programs. ▪ Work with industry partners in food services, accommodation, and hospitality to standardize the foundational training and credentialing as skills are obtained on the job. Once training pathways ar e standardized, provide group upskilling opportunities (in a digital format where possible to reach the largest number of workers).
▪ Ensure that local human services organizations are fully integrated into the Workforce Development System/One Stop and work with these organizations to address the barriers to labor force participation for targeted talent pools in the community. This will allow businesses to access untapped labor pools.
▪ Prioritize digital upskilling, even for frontline roles - to address digital skills gaps and promote economic mobility. Recent research by the National Skills Coalition 11 estimates that 36% of workers in the hospitality industry have limited or no digital skills and this “digital skill divide disproportionately impacts workers of color, low -income individuals, and rural residents.” According to recent Brookings research 12, “workers that qualify for jobs that require even one digital skill can earn an average of 23% m ore than in a job requiring no digital skills. Moving from a job requiring no digital skills to one requiring at least three can increase pay by an average of 45%.”
▪ Consult with local industry/employers to identify industry -specific digital skills that cou ld be conferred on the job or in short -term “boot camp” settings. For example, Lightcast identifies the following emerging digital skills that are in -demand in the retail sector: Ecommerce, Point of sale systems, Retail analytics (e.g. SAS), and Robotics. ▪ Investigate the viability of “Returnships” 13 to draw displaced workers back into jobs by providing training in the latest digital skills/ technologies, networking opportunities, job placement and support.
▪ Identify prospective talent pools for education and upskilling to meet future demand, where public workforce development funds can be best leveraged. Within the four North Bay counties, the re are 152,695 residents with a high school diploma only, or some college
11 https://nationalskillscoalition.org/resource/publications/the -new-landscape -of-digital -literacy/ 12 https://www.brookings.edu/research/as -the-digitalization -of-work-expands -place-based-solutions -can- bridge -the-gaps/
13 https://www.aarp.org/work/job -search/returnships -adult-internships/
22 credits, but no degree - that could be targeted for middle skill technical roles or incentivized to complete a degree program.
PHASE 3 - Technical and Certificate Programs (2 to 4 Y ears) Focus: Near-term alignment of forecasted industry demand with local talent development program- ming to facilitate attainment of the most relevant degrees and certifications ▪ Confirm with employers the key post -secondary programs that confer high -demand skills and credentials. Collaborate to promote and drive enrollment in these preferred programs of study.
▪ Define with cross -sector partners what constitutes a “good job” in the region. Identify a list of targeted “good jobs” that require post -secondary tr aining/credentials. Identify the career pathways that lead to those jobs and where those jobs can lead with even more education, training, and experience.
▪ Develop on-ramps to high -demand, high -potential pathways that are projected to grow in the next sever al years. Provide bridges to priority pathways from industries and jobs with less potential for mobility.
▪ Consider how earn and learn models like Apprenticeship can be applied – even in non - traditional industries.
▪ Promote successful workforce alignment to attract new business investment in the region.
Align business attraction with the region’s talent development strengths.
PHASE 4 - Advanced Skill Sets (4 to 7 Years)
Focus: Long-term alignment of higher education programming to develop a sustainable high ly- skilled pipeline for the region’s driver industries
▪ Map where employers are participating on industry advisory boards at local colleges and universities, advising on the alignment of program curriculum to success in the and the knowledge, skills, and ab ilities that set up students for (1) successful job placement; and (2) lifelong career development.
▪ Aggregate input across boards to provide better intelligence to all organizations in the talent development system. Promote collaboration across institutio ns to fill programming gaps in the region, or downsize or sunset programs where industry demand isn’t sufficient to provide
23 employment for graduates. Collaborate to drive enrollment in programs of study that fuel local industry needs.
▪ Improve speed to mark et of skilled talent (credential attainment) by facilitating seamless articulation agreements between community college and university programs and where possible, providing credit for prior learning.
▪ Improve attachment to job opportunities in your market by supporting employers’ capacity to offer internships for current college & university students. Work with career services departments to drive employer participation in career fairs, collaborate on specialized career fairs that appeal to employers’ hirin g priorities - by industry or sector.
PHASE #5 - Information Gap (7 to 10 Years)
Focus: Build awareness of high -demand high -potential career pathways with industry -aligned pro- gramming in middle and high schools.
▪ Provide semi -annual labor market updates to K -12 leaders and policy makers to communicate current and emerging skillsets that set up students for future success. ▪ Establish a list of entry -level job requirements across industries. Leverage youth funds to provide earn and learn opportunities that combine hourly work with foundational skills development and career counseling.
▪ Grow t he number of programs offering dual enrollment opportunities that confer post - secondary credits and industry -recognized credentials to increase the likelihood of post - secondary enrollment and/or attachment to the workforce after graduation. ▪ Communicate preferred credentials/degrees and local programs of study that fuel industry needs and connect the dots to enrollment.
▪ Backmap established local career pathways into K -12 and cultivate future talent by fostering industry partnerships with local high schoo ls to offer a range of career experiences. Provide awareness of local opportunities and relevance for classroom learning through business/plant tours, job shadows, industry -supported classroom projects, work experience, and more.
24 PHASE #6 - Starting Early : 10 to 15 Years
Focus: Draw students to foundational career and technical education programs by sparking inter- est in STEM and the world of work.
▪ Promote the work of local STEM partnerships to galvanize community support for programming that builds foundational skills, interests and aptitudes for the jobs of tomorrow. ▪ Grow access to out -of-school enrichment programs that focus on future employa bility skills, including Junior Achievement, 4 -H Clubs, Boys and Girls Clubs, YMCA programs, coding camps, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts and more. Connect young people participating in those programs to information about career and technical education programs a vailable to them in middle and high school.
▪ Leverage local community college and university resources to provide youth summer camps, hackathons, and other ways to “try out” a career program of study.
Advancing this strategic framework as a community will require stakeholders to:
1. Coordinate and collaborate across organizations, understanding that the work cannot be accomplished in siloes. Each partner organization brings unique expertise, networks, and resources to the table and should understand their org anization’s role in advancing key pieces of the overall strategy.
2. Follow the lead of employers , the end-users of your region’s talent “supply chain.” Focus on the benefits to employers of collaborating - even with competitors - to grow the pool of talent for all and the skills that are aligned to common industry pain points.
3. Focus on skills, the common language that brings together job seekers, employers, and educators for mutual benefit.
25 Occupation % of Total Jobs
in Industry (2022)
Employed in
Industry
(2022)
Employed
in Industry
(2028)
Projected %
Change (2022 -
2028)
Median
Hourly
Earnings
Typical Entry
Level
Education
Typical On -The-
Job Training
Demonstrators and Product
Promoters 10.40% 1,196 1,224 2% $18.38
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying,
Precipitating, and Still Machine
Setters, Operators, and Tenders 9.50% 1,097 1,104 1% $29.42 High school
diploma or
equivalent
Moderate -term
on-the-job
training
Packaging and Filling Machine
Operators and Tenders 6.90% 801 811 1% $22.22
High school
diploma or
equivalent
Moderate -term
on-the-job
training
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop,
Nursery, and Greenhouse 6.60% 756 756 0% $15.96
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Sales Representatives, Wholesale
and Manufacturing, Except
Technical and Scientific Products 5.30% 613 637 4% $38.19 High school
diploma or
equivalent
Moderate -term
on-the-job
training
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and
Material Movers, Hand 3.20% 364 379 4% $17.59
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Waiters and Waitresses 3.20% 364 380 5% $16.10
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Bartenders 2.50% 285 305 7% $16.06
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Retail Salespersons 2.40% 279 291 4% $16.66
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on-
the-job training
General and Operations Managers 2.00% 227 237 4% $49.24 Bachelor's
degree None
First-Line Supervisors of
Production and Operating Workers 1.90% 223 232 4% $36.96 High school
diploma or
equivalent None
Appendix 1
26 Industrial Truck and Tractor
Operators 1.90% 218 226 4% $21.38
No formal
educational
credential
Short-term on -
the-job training
Merchandise Displayers and
Window Trimmers 1.80% 209 218 5% $17.74
High school
diploma or
equivalent
Short-term on -
the-job training
Industrial Production Managers 1.40% 166 171 3% $61.11 Bachelor's
degree None
Sales Managers 1.40% 161 166 3% $62.60
Bachelor's
degree None
Maintenance and Repair Workers,
General 1.40% 159 164 3% $23.23
High school
diploma or
equivalent
Moderate -term
on-the-job
training
Market Research Analysts and
Marketing Specialists 1.40% 158 170 7% $36.98
Bachelor's
degree None
27 Contact
Susan Koehn
Senior Consultant
[email protected]
www.lightcast. io