CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA DECEMBER 2023
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 Core PCE Prices, 2007 to 2026: Is the FED’s job done? 2 What to Watch
• Slow fall through forecasted
inflation to 2026
• One more rate increase less
likely now
FED will not lower rates until:
1. Job losses/slower growth
2. Continued fall toward
dotted line
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2023 2.1 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5
2024 1.3 1.7 4.0 4.1 2.4 2.4
2025 2.1 1.8 4.2 4.2 2.1 2.1
2026 1.7 2.1 4.1 4.0 N/A N/A
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from November 2023
Bottom Line: Economy more resilient than previous forecasts, inflation beginning its descent; relatively high interest rates will continue pressure economy to 2025 Napa at a Glance: end of Q3 2023
4 Labor Market: Napa Residents, Quarterly
2019 Q1 to 2023 Q3
5 Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates
Napa, April 2019 to Sept 2023, Monthly
6 Taxable Sales, Growth from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023
Current Dollars, Napa, Napa County and California
7 -2.0%
2.4%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
City of Napa Napa County California
Fiscal Years 2022 to 2023
City of Napa: as we enter 2024
• End of summer surge led to good tourism growth
• 2024 likely a mixed year given slower economy and uncertainty • Global threats may keep people from traveling to Europe and Middle East • Expect more competition from the core Bay Area in 2024 and 2025 • Wine industry beginning to come back in full
• Changes in retail and restaurants continue, with direct-to-consumer settling into long-term pattern
• Napa to remain global space for food and wine: consumer profiles changing
• Shifting housing markets, burden and working from home: the next steps for Napa
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