CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA APRIL 2024
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 ATTACHMENT 1
Core PCE Prices, 2007 to 2026 and beyond:
Rates to Start Falling?
2 To consider:
When will rates fall and
how far?
Will we “soft land”, and
what does that look
like?
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Core PCE Inflation (%) Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2024 1.7 2.4 4.1 3.9 2.4 2.1
2025 1.8 1.8 4.2 4.1 2.1 2.0
2026 2.1 2.2 4.0 4.1 N/A 2.0
2027 N/A 1.7 N/A 4.0 N/A N/A
Federal Reserve Philadelphia
Forecast, Survey of Professional Forecasters
3 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch
These data are from February 2024
Bottom Line: jobs growth should begin to fade as consumption slows with continued interest rates levels and lower savings levels, recession less likely to be declared
Napa at a Glance: end of Q4 2023
4
Labor Market: Napa Residents, Monthly
Jan 2019 to Dec 2023
5
Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates
Napa, April 2019 to Dec 2023, Monthly
6
Taxable Sales, % Change from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023
Current Dollars, Napa, Napa County and California
7 Source: California Dept of Tax and Fee Admin (CDTFA)
5.7%
-2.1% -3.8%
2.9%
-4.4%
-1.5% -2.9%
15.2%
-6.0%
5.7%
2.5%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Building
Material and
Garden
Equipment
and Supplies
Dealers
Clothing and
Clothing
Accessories
Stores
Food and
Beverage
Stores
Food
Services and
Drinking
Places
Gasoline
Stations
General
Merchandise
Stores
Home
Furnishings
and
Appliance
Stores
Motor
Vehicle and
Parts Dealers
Other Retail
Group
All Other
Outlets
Total All
Outlets
Napa Napa County California
Rental Housing Burden, % of Renters that Pay 30% or
More of Monthly Income for Rent, 2010, 2020 and 2022,
Current Dollars
8 53.7%
53.2%
54.3%
52.4%
54.8%
54.3%
47.0%
48.0%
49.0%
50.0%
51.0%
52.0%
53.0%
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
Napa City Napa County Sonoma Marin Solano CA
2010 2020 2022
Source: Census Bureau
Income Quintiles: Threshold Income Levels, 5-Year
Averages, 2011, 2019, 2022, 2011 Dollars
9 Source: Census Bureau
$34,007
$60,945
$93,062
$145,515
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile 2011 2019 2022
Median Household Income:
2011 = $62,642
2019 = $64,597
2022 = $77,071
Living Wage 2023: $46.17
MIT Living Wage Calculator
Per Adult, Household with 2
Adults and 2 Children
City of Napa: Economic Development
• Ele ctions to be the dominant theme in 2024, mixed wit h g
eopolitics
• I nterest rate watch: expect some movement down by late summer, early fall
• Jo bs: will there be any real changes?
• Ho using: lower rates may affect demand somewhat, really about existing units coming up for sale
• T ourism: 2024 likely similar to 2023 given mix of headwinds a nd t
ailwinds
10