SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTS & COMMUNICATIONS
Office of the City Clerk
City Council of the City of Napa
Regular Meeting
June 17th, 2025
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPA
SUBMITTED PRIOR TO THE CITY COUNCIL MEETING
AFTERNOON SESSION
4. GENERAL PUBLIC COMMENT
• Email received from Sam Chapman on June 16, 2025.
6. ADMINISTRATIVE REPORTS
6.A Financial and Economic Indicator Update Q2 2025
• Presentation from Staff.
8. PUBLIC HEARINGS
8.A City of Napa FY 2025/26 and 2026/27 Budget Adoption • Presentation from Staff.
CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA JUNE 2025
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 6.A.
US Macro Forecast
These data are from May 2025: Data from Q1 2025
Bottom Line: No recession in forecast (40% chance in 2025 for now, 30% for 2026) Watching for policy recalibration and uncertainty, April 2 set new stage Real
GDP (%)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Core PCE
Inflation (%)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2025 2.4 1.4 4.2 4.3 2.4 3.3
2026 2.2 1.6 4.2 4.6 2.3 2.5
2027 1.8 2.2 4.3 4.5 2.1 2.1
2028 2.0 2.0 4.3 4.4 N/A N/A
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Napa at a Glance: based on known data as of May 2025
3 Labor Market: Napa Residents, Monthly
July 2022 to April 2025
4 Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates, Napa,
June 2022 to April 2025, Monthly, Six-Month Moving Average 5 Taxable Sales, % Change from 2023 to 2024 (Annual Totals) Current Dollars, Napa, Napa County and California
6 Source: California Dept of Tax and Fee Admin (CDTFA)
What these data suggest:
1. Effects of inflation two ways:
price growth slowing down and
consumers spending less
2. Travel data suggest more
overnights, restaurant sales up
-1.7%
-2.3%
-1.4%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Napa Napa County California
Percentage Change
Housing Markets: Forecast to January 2026
Napa and Selected Comparison Areas, as of January 2025
7 Source: Census Bureau
-0.8%
0.3%
-0.9%
1.6%
0.8%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-1.0% -1.1% -1.2%
-1.6% -1.7% -1.8% -1.8%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%Percentage Change
Commercial Real Estate Summary
8 Office vacancy falling: coming back to office,
but likely close to long-term
Industrial vacancy picking up: does this track
with changes in wine industry?
Pricing relatively stable
Big question: downtown Napa and continued
pressures on smaller businesses
Ties to tourism
Source: Colliers International
Econ Uncertainty Index (Bloom, et al.), Nov 1993 = 100
Shaded Area = Recessions, Jan 1985 to June 2025
9 555.32
560.88
503.89
0 100
200
300
400
500
600Index (Nov 1993 = 100)
Source: FRED (https://fred.stlousfed.org)
The Tariff Landscape: 1899 to May 27, 2025
(Annual and YTD), Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR)
Source: The Budget Lab at Yale
27.99 17.83
21.87 0.0
5.0 10.0
15.0 20.0
25.0 30.0
35.0 1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR), % Tax Rate
SFO passengers, June 2006 to March 2025
12 months Rolling Totals, Number of Passengers
11 -
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
Jun-06
Mar-07
Dec-07
Sep-08
Jun-09
Mar-10
Dec-10
Sep-11
Jun-12
Mar-13
Dec-13
Sep-14
Jun-15
Mar-16
Dec-16
Sep-17
Jun-18
Mar-19
Dec-19
Sep-20
Jun-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Jun-24
Mar-25
Number of Passengers (12 Mo Sum)
Source: FlySFO: https://www.flysfo.com/about/media/facts-statistics/air-traffic-statistics City of Napa: Summary Q2 2025
• Tourism: holding firm for now, key is spending level once here • Macro outlook
• Equity market recovery tenuous, but here (uncertainty abounds) • Jobs continue to expand, regionally some slower movements • Wine industry: some green shoots alongside concerns
• Consumers likely to have a good year, wineries less and adjusting • Ultra-premium wine doing better than other price points (for now) • Housing markets remain stable, but forecasts still pessimistic • Rates likely to remain elevated, but slower building volume helps supply • Housing affordability issues to persist
12 Budget Adoption
FY 2025/26 and FY 2026/27
June 17, 2025
8.A.
Changes Since 6/3 Public Hearing
• Updates to Non-Recurring General Fund
– Increased Measure G funding in FY 2026/27 by $3.5
M to Recreational Opportunities Projects
• Updates to CIP Budget
– Decreased Measure G Funding in FY 2026/27 for
Splash Pad Project by $3.5 M
• Updates to Measure U
– Increased Measure U expenditures in FY 2025/26 by
$450 K to account for transfer out need to fund
Paving Program
FY 2025/26 Expenditures
All Funds - $403.9 million
General Funds
42%
Special Revenue Funds
7%
Capital Projects Funds
11%
Solid Waste & Recycling
Funds
14%
Water Funds
14%
Internal Service Funds
6%
Housing Authority Funds
6%
FY 2026/27 Expenditures
All Funds - $396.1 million
General Funds
44%
Special Revenue Funds
6%
Capital Projects Funds
9%
Solid Waste & Recycling
Funds
14%
Water Funds
14%
Internal Service Funds
7%
Housing Authority Funds
6%
General Fund
Revenues and Expenditures
$109.5 $126.5
$144.6
$163.2 $168.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2022/23
Actual
2023/24
Actual
2024/25
Adjusted
2025/26
Proposed
2026/27
Proposed
Millions
Expenditures Operating Revenues Non-Operating Revenues
General Fund with Measure G
Revenues
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
24/25 Adjusted 25/26 Proposed 26/27 Proposed
Millions
Property Tax VLF Sales Tax Sales Tax - Measure G
Transient Occup Tax Business License Tax Licenses and Permits Charges for Services Other Revenues Transfers In Excess ERAF
$163.4 $168.4
$138.4
Sales Tax Revenue
with Measure G
$23.28 $23.71 $24.39
$5.14
$22.37 $23.05
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
24/25 Adjusted 25/26 Proposed 26/27 Proposed
Millions
Sales Tax Sales Tax - Measure G
General Fund with Measure G
Expenditures
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
24/25 Adjusted 25/26 Proposed 26/27 Proposed
Millions
Payroll & CalPERS Services - External
Services - Internal Materials & Supplies & Capital Outlay Transfers Out Transfers Out - Measure G
Transfers to Reserves
$163.2 $168.2
$144.6
Measure G
Expenditures
3.30 10.30 9.15 1.70
8.34 7.94
1.51 3.74
1.32 1.52
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
24/25 25/26 26/27
Millions
Streets & Sidewalk Repairs Parks & Recreations Core Services Enhancements Public Safety Programs for the Unhoused Community Engagement $5.0
$22.3 $23.1
General Fund
Fund Balance / Reserves
11.6 8.5 8.6 8.9
16.6 18.1 19.2 19.9
5.9 6.5 6.9 7.1
1.2 1.3
1.4 1.43.9 3.9
3.9 3.9
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2023/24 Actual 2024/25 Adjusted 2025/26 Proposed 2026/27 Proposed Millions
Unassigned Fund Balance Emergency Reserve Operating Reserve Contingency Reserve Legally Restricted
Proposed CIP by Category
FY 2025/26 & 2026/27
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20
Bridge
Facilities
Materials Diversion
Misc
Park
Public Art
Storm Drain
Streets, Traffic Safety, Multi-Modal
Traffic Signal
Water
Millions
2025/26 Proposed 2026/27 Proposed
Conclusion
Council Questions or
Comments?
Recommended Action:
1. Move to adopt the Fiscal
Years 2025/26 and
2026/27 Budgets
2. Move to adopt City-Wide
Position Staffing Plan
End of Presentation
Proposition 218 Process – Rate Notice (cont.)
• Modeled on 2019
SWR Rate Notice
& in fulfillment of
promise to 2020
Napa Grand Jury.
• Incorporates 2019
Napa Taxpayers
requested
revision to
wording adjacent
to check box on
protest form.