CITY OF NAPA: DASHBOARD
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
NAPA, CA AUGUST 2026
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University
[email protected]
1 US Macro Forecast
Data below are from May 2026, +2.1% Real GDP Growth 2026 Q2 since Q2 2025 Bottom Line: 10% chance of recession to end of 2027
Based on AI bets, jobs and inflation
Real
GDP (%)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Core PCE
Inflation (%)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2026 2.5 2.2 4.5 4.4 2.7 3.3
2027 2.1 1.9 4.4 4.5 2.3 2.4
2028 2.1 2.2 4.4 4.4 2.1 2.1
2029 1.9 2.3 4.4 4.4 N/A N/A
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Napa at a Glance: based on known data as of July 2026
3 Labor Market: Napa Residents, Monthly
July 2022 to June 2026, Seas Adj.
4 Seas Adj Unemployment
Rates (June 2026), all down
from recent 2-3 year peaks:
City of Napa: 4.2%
Napa County: 4.0%
Sonoma County: 3.9%
Solano County: 4.7%
California: 5.2%
Sources: California Employment Development Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates, Napa,
June 2022 to May 2026, Monthly, Six-Month Moving Average 5 Housing Markets: Forecast to June 2027, Slowing Down
Napa and Selected Comparison Areas, as of June 2026
6 Source: ZillowTM Research
-3.1%
-0.5% -0.5%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.8% -1.8%
-2.3% -2.3%
-2.5%
-2.7% -2.8% -2.9% -3.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%Percentage Change
Median Home Prices
(June 2026):
Napa: $876,600
Napa County: $885,600
Sonoma: $798.700
Solano: $580,300
CA: $775,600
Rent Growth
(June 2025-June 2026):
Napa: +1.2%
Monterey: +5.5%
San Rafael: +4.3%
Petaluma: +3.8%
Jobs in Napa: Industry Growth, Annual Data as Available to June 2026, Change from 2024 to 2025 and 2024 to 2030 (Forecasted) 7 Sources: LightCast, Employment Development Department of California, EFA -5.0%
-0.4%
8.8%
5.5%
-0.2%
4.9%
-1.8%
3.3%
14.0%
-2.4%
4.2%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%Percetnage Change
2024-2025 2024-2030
Wine Index: Getting Closer
• Wholesale markets, a large amount of bulk wine to move soon • Consumer renaissance: opportunity to bring new drinkers in using slower-moving inventory
• Consolidation and change
• Napa remains globally branded
• Tie to regional tourism, difficult to decompose
• Taxable sales pinch for now
8 City of Napa: Summary Q2 2026 toward 2027
• Travel outcomes remain mixed: California forecast is more robust than recent data (Bay Area is up)
• Macroeconomic concerns remain: interest rates and investment by new and current businesses
• The wine market is likely two years from a true turnaround • Napa should lean on wine-adjacent assets and gains
• Lower unemployment in Napa mask demographic change to watch • For 2027:
• Wine industry changes and broader effects: taxable sales, property and jobs watch • Midterms, local elections, and aftermaths
• State budget, local budgets and federal dollars: equity market focus 9 COMMUNITY
WILDFIRE
PROTECTION PLAN
OVERVIEW &
ADOPTION
A u g u s t 4 , 2 0 2 6
CITY COUNCIL
ACTION REQUEST
• Receive an overview of the
Community Wildfire Protection
Plan (CWPP), a guiding document
for increasing awareness of
wildfire risk, reducing ignitions
and hazards & strengthening
community preparedness.
• Adopt a resolution adopting the
City of Napa Community Wildfire
Protection Plan and determining
that the actions authorized by
this Resolution are exempt from
CEQA.
PROJECT OVERVIEW
• Developed collaboratively with our community
• Based on the state-of-the-art technology with latest, most accurate data
• Provides recommended actions needed to enhance
community awareness and engagement, identify hazards that contribute to wildfire risk, and mitigation strategies. • Gives us the required foundation for state and federal funding
A PLAN TO PROTECT NAP A
FROM WILDFIRE
City
Planning and
Guidance T ool
Community
Engagement
and Education
T ool
Partners
Collaboration
Tool
COMMUNITY
INVOLVEMENT &
COLLABORATION
• 65 DIFFERENT AGENCIES
• STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS (4)
• HYBRID & IN-PERSON
• FD FIRE & LIFE SAFETY DAY
• MULTIPLE COMMUNITY
SURVEYS
• HOSTED ONLINE RESOURCES
CWPP PURPOSE:
Enhance
Understanding
Identify
Hazards Foster
Engagement
Protect
Communities
Develop
Stratagies
Plan
Collaboratively
Hazard &
Risk
Summary
• DATA BASED RISK ASSESSMENT
• FIRE MAPPING & FUEL MODELS
• FIRE HISTORY
• KEY INFRASTRUCTURE
• FIRE HAZARD SEVERITY ZONES
• CONSISTENT APPROACH TO
STATE AND COUNTY
ASSESSMENTS AND MAPPING
Action
Planning
&
Recommendations
ALIGNMENT WITH OTHER PLANS
• CITY GENERAL PLAN
• CITY CODES & ORDINANCES
• HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN
• URBAN FOREST MANAGEMENT PLAN
• COUNTY CWPP
• COMPLIANCE WITH STATE LAWS/REQUIREMENTS
PLAN COMPONENTS
• CWPP Site
• GIS Hub (What zone am I
in?)
• Fire Hazard Severity Zone
• Flood Zone
• Evacuation Zone
• Wildfire Action Plan
Community
Resources
WHAT’S NEXT?
• Work with Napa County to ensure City-specific items are included in the pending County CWPP update
• Continuing work on projects already in progress
• Consider the establishment of Fire Safe Communities, Firewise Councils • Transition CWPP management and initiatives to our new (pending) Emergency Manager
• Expand community outreach and education to available resources (English and Spanish)
• Seek new and additional funding for mitigation and public education projects
RECOMMENDED
ACTION:
ADOPT A RESOLUTION
ADOPTING THE CITY OF NAPA
COMMUNITY WILDFIRE
PROTECTION PLAN AND
DETERMINING THAT THE
ACTIONS AUTHORIZED BY THIS
RESOLUTION ARE EXEMPT FROM
CEQA.
QUESTIONS?