From: Kim Tubbleville
To: Clerk
Cc: Cindy Fleming; David Welch; Martin Reeder; Bill Frerking; Kevin Laborne Subject: San Diego Clean Fuels - Council Pre-Read Packet for City Clerk Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 12:35:55 PM
Attachments: image001.png
Pre Read Packet for Council - FINAL.pdf
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Hello,
Attached is the “pre-read” packet pertaining to our Project.
Please distribute this to the Council Members, prior to the City Council meeting on October 7th.
Thank you,
KIM TUBBLEVILLE
ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR
811 MAIN, SUITE 2800 HOUSTON, TX 77002
O 832.991.8576
usdcleanfuels.c
Item 10.2 - Public Hearing to Consider
Denial of a Conditional Use Permit
and Coastal Development Permit for
Proposed Fuel Transfer Facility
From: Kim Tubbleville
To: Clerk
Cc: Cindy Fleming; David Welch; Martin Reeder; Bill Frerking; Kevin Laborne Subject: RE: San Diego Clean Fuels - Council Pre-Read Packet for City Clerk Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 3:17:17 PM
Attachments: image001.png
National City Energy Transition Project Impact Analysis.pdf CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Hello Again,
We would also like to provide the attached Impact Analysis Report to the City Council.
Please distribute this to the Council Members (along with the pre-read packet sent to you earlier today) prior to the City Council meeting on October 7th.
Thank you,
KIM TUBBLEVILLE
ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR
811 MAIN, SUITE 2800 HOUSTON, TX 77002
O 832.991.8576
usdcleanfuels.com
From: Kim Tubbleville
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 2:35 PM
To: [email protected]
Cc: [email protected]; David Welch <[email protected]>; Martin Reeder <[email protected]>; Bill Frerking <[email protected]>; Kevin Laborne <[email protected]>
Subject: San Diego Clean Fuels - Council Pre-Read Packet for City Clerk Hello,
Attached is the “pre-read” packet pertaining to our Project.
Please distribute this to the Council Members, prior to the City Council meeting on October 7th.
Thank you,
KIM TUBBLEVILLE
ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR
811 MAIN, SUITE 2800 HOUSTON, TX 77002
O 832.991.8576
usdcleanfuels.com
Prepared for:
USD Clean Fuels
811 Main Street, Suite 2800
Houston, TX, 77002
Prepared by:
A REPORT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA
June 17, 2024
Study Highlights………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 Overview
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 Project Plans………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 Economic Impact Methodology…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6 Economic Impact
Temporary Construction Impact…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 Permanent Annual Impact of Operations…………………………………………………………………………………… 8 Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Impact Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 Taxable Spending………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 12 Sales Taxes…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 Income Taxes……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 Taxable Property…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Property Taxes……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Methodology
Overview of Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 15 About Impact DataSource…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 17 CONTENTS
Impact DataSource | 2
Study Highlights
• This report presents the projected economic impact of USD Clean Fuels' National City Energy Transition Project (the "Project") on the San Diego County area. It also estimates the tax revenues for local taxing districts during the construction phase and on an ongoing basis.
• The National City Energy Transition Project will establish a clean fuels transloading facility at the BNSF Railway property, aiding California's carbon neutrality goal by 2045 and improving air quality. By replacing 2,400,000 truck miles annually with efficient rail transport, the project will reduce emissions and provide renewable diesel, biodiesel, and ethanol to displace conventional fossil fuels.
• The Project is estimated to require a total capital investment of $14.5 million, which will be spent over an 8-month construction period. Once constructed, the facility is expected to require 24 workers and support total payroll of approximately $2.4 million per year.
• The economic impact of the Project was estimated for both the construction period and the ongoing operational phase.
Temporary Construction Impact
• $24.7 million in economic impact in the regional economy. • 100 total construction jobs during construction.
• $6.8 million in salaries and wages paid to construction workers.
Table 1. Temporary Economic Impact of Project-Related Construction Activity Amount
Economic Output:
Direct $14,539,337
Indirect & Induced $10,194,983
Total Economic Output $24,734,320
Value Added:
Total Value Added $13,541,938
Employment:
Direct 51.2
Indirect & Induced 48.3
Total Employment 99.5
Household Earnings:
Direct $3,908,469
Indirect & Induced $2,866,862
Total Household Earnings $6,775,331
Indirect and induced impacts represent the spin-off economic activity resulting from the business-to-business expenditures initiated by the company and the consumer-to-business expenditures initiated by workers spending a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the economy. Economic output is gross output and is the sum of the intermediate inputs and final use. This is a duplicative total in that goods and services will be counted multiple times if they are used in the production of other goods and services. Economic output can be thought of as the value of goods and services sold in the economy or revenues for businesses in the economy. Value added is defined as the value of gross output less intermediate inputs. Household earnings or earnings consist of wages and salaries, employer provided benefits, and proprietors’ income.
Employment consists of a count of jobs that include both full-time and part-time workers.
Impact DataSource | 3
Study Highlights
On-going Operations Impact
• $21.2 million in annual economic impact.
• 65 total jobs including direct, indirect, and induced. • $4.9 million in annual salaries and wages paid to permanent workers.
Table 2. Economic Impact of On-Going Operations
Total Over the
Annually Next 10 Years
Economic Output:
Direct $12,605,124 $144,503,623
Indirect & Induced $8,587,871 $98,450,318
Total Economic Output $21,192,995 $242,953,941
Value Added:
Total Value Added $12,075,709 $138,434,471
Employment:
Direct 24.0 24.0
Indirect & Induced 40.9 40.9
Total Employment 64.9 64.9
Household Earnings:
Direct $2,378,821 $27,270,521
Indirect & Induced $2,525,832 $28,955,839
Total Household Earnings $4,904,654 $56,226,360
• The fiscal impact estimated for the Project includes sales taxes, income taxes, and property taxes. The State of California and local jurisdictions will benefit from these taxes during construction and on an annual basis during operations. More detail on the tax calculations and share received by the state and local jurisdictions can be found later in the report.
Table 3. Projected Tax Revenues
State of
California
City of National
City
San Diego
County Other Districts Total
One-time Construction Sales Tax $667,166 $111,194 $194,590 $0 $972,950 One-time Construction Income Tax $84,255 $0 $0 $0 $84,255 Total One-time Construction Tax $751,421 $111,194 $194,590 $0 $1,057,205 Annual On-going Sales Tax $74,600 $12,433 $21,758 $0 $108,792 Annual On-going Income Tax $69,492 $0 $0 $0 $69,492
Annual On-going Property Tax $0 $0 $109,045 $16,808 $125,853 Total Annual On-going Tax $144,092 $12,433 $130,803 $16,808 $304,137 • During construction and over the first 10 years of operations, the Project is estimated to generate $4.5 million in new tax revenues for the state and local taxing jurisdictions.
Table 4. Projected Tax Revenues over Next 10 Years
State of
California
City of National
City
San Diego
County Other Districts Total
One-time Construction Tax $751,421 $111,194 $194,590 $0 $1,057,205 Operations Tax Revenues $1,651,851 $142,535 $1,499,515 $192,687 $3,486,588 Total Taxes Over First 10 Years $2,403,272 $253,729 $1,694,105 $192,687 $4,543,793 • More detail on the above summary can be found on the following pages.
Impact DataSource | 4
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | OVERVIEW
Introduction
This report presents the results of an analysis conducted by Impact DataSource, an economic consulting firm based in Austin, TX. It estimates the economic impact of USD Clean Fuels' National City Energy Transition Project (the "Project") on the San Diego County area and projects the tax revenues for local taxing districts both during the construction phase and on an ongoing basis.
Project Plans
The National City Energy Transition Project will bring a clean fuels transloading facility to the existing BNSF Railway property in National City, helping California achieve its stated goal of carbon neutrality by 2045 and improving air quality.
The National City project will provide clean fuels to reduce emissions in public transportation, off-road equipment, and other applications in and around National City. By replacing approximately 2,400,000 truck miles per year with more efficient rail transportation, the project will reduce carbon and emissions. The facility will transload cleaner, lower-carbon renewable diesel, biodiesel, and ethanol to displace conventional hydrocarbon-based fossil fuels.
According to projections from USD Clean Fuels, it is anticipated to cost $14.5 million to develop the National City Energy Transition Project over an 8-month construction period. Once constructed, the facility is expected to require 24 workers and support total payroll of approximately $2.4 million per year.
Table 5. Project Details
National City
Energy Transition
Project
Hard Construction Costs $13,039,337
Soft Construction Costs $1,500,000
Total Capital Investment $14,539,337
Employment Headcount 24
Average Annual Payroll Per Employee $99,118
Total Payroll $2,378,821
Impact DataSource | 5
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | OVERVIEW
Economic Impact Methodology
This analysis estimates both the temporary economic impact during the Project's construction period and the ongoing annual economic impact during operations. This section outlines the metrics measured and the methodology used in the economic impact model.
The economic impacts are measured in terms of employment, household earnings, economic output, and value added:
Employment consists of a count of jobs that include both full-time and part-time workers.
Household earnings or earnings consist of wages and salaries, employer provided benefits, and proprietors’ income.
Economic output is gross output and is the sum of the intermediate inputs and final use. This is a duplicative total in that goods and services will be counted multiple times if they are used in the production of other goods and services. Economic output can be thought of as the value of goods and services sold in the economy or revenues for businesses in the economy.
Value added is defined as the value of gross output less intermediate inputs.
The total economic impact of the Project extends beyond initial construction expenditures and direct operational employment.
Initial spending generates additional economic impacts through indirect and induced effects. Indirect impacts arise from businessto-business expenditures when the company purchases goods and services from other businesses. Induced impacts result from consumer spending by workers in the economy.
Economic Impact Calculations
The economic impact estimates in this report are based on the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II), a widely used regional input-output model developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The RIMS II model used in this analysis is configured for San Diego - Chula Vista - Carlsbad MSA. This region corresponds to the region that will supply most of the inputs and workers.
Industry Classifications
To estimate the economic impact of the Project's activity, industry-specific multipliers are applied to the appropriate expenditure or employment industries. The table below identifies the activity and the corresponding RIMS II industry group.
Table 6. Expenditure Categories and Corresponding RIMS II Industry Group Activity RIMS II Industry Group
Construction Expenditures 2332TH - Transportation structures and highways and streets Operations Employment 482000 - Rail transportation
Impact DataSource | 6
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | ECONOMIC IMPACT Temporary Construction Impact
The Project will require a total capital investment of $14.5 million to construct the facilities. The planned expenditure serves as the direct economic output and the total economic impact is estimated using the RIMS II model.
Table 7. Project Investments
Amount
Hard Construction Costs $13,039,337
Soft Construction Costs $1,500,000
Total Capital Investment $14,539,337
The construction costs are expected to support 100 jobs during construction and $6.8 million in household earnings for these workers. Additionally, the activity will support $24.7 million in total spending or economic output, and contribute $13.5 million in value added or gross area product.
The following table presents the temporary economic impacts resulting from the construction.
Table 8. Temporary Economic Impact of Project-Related Construction Activity Amount
Economic Output:
Direct $14,539,337
Indirect & Induced $10,194,983
Total Economic Output $24,734,320
Value Added:
Total Value Added $13,541,938
Employment:
Direct 51.2
Indirect & Induced 48.3
Total Employment 99.5
Household Earnings:
Direct $3,908,469
Indirect & Induced $2,866,862
Total Household Earnings $6,775,331
Taxable sales related to construction activity are presented in the following table. The sales tax revenue generated from construction-period taxable spending is included in the fiscal impact for affected districts during the initial period of construction.
Table 9. Construction-Related Taxable Spending
Amount
Expenditure for Materials $10,630,868
% of Materials subject to local tax 100.0%
Subtotal Taxable Materials $10,630,868
Expenditure for Labor / Paid to construction workers $3,908,469 Taxable Spending as % of Wages 25.0%
% of taxable spending in region 50.0%
Subtotal Taxable Construction Worker Spending $488,559
Total Construction-Related Taxable Spending $11,119,427 Impact DataSource | 7
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | ECONOMIC IMPACT Permanent Annual Impact of Operations
The permanent, on-going economic impact of the National City Energy Transition Project is summarized in this section.
In total, the Project is estimated to support 64.9 permanent jobs, $4.9 million in annual household earnings, and $21.2 million in annual economic output in the San Diego MSA. Ultimately, the activity will support contribute $12.1 million in value added or gross area product to the local economy each year.
The following table presents the permanent, on-going economic impacts resulting from the Project.
Table 10. Permanent Annual Economic Impact of the National City Energy Transition Project Amount
Economic Output:
Direct $12,605,124
Indirect & Induced $8,587,871
Total Economic Output $21,192,995
Value Added:
Total Value Added $12,075,709
Employment:
Direct 24.0
Indirect & Induced 40.9
Total Employment 64.9
Household Earnings:
Direct $2,378,821
Indirect & Induced $2,525,832
Total Household Earnings $4,904,654
Impact DataSource | 8
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | ECONOMIC IMPACT The economic impact of the Project would affect industries throughout the economy. The following chart presents a graphical illustration of the total economic output by industry. In total, the Project supports $21.2 million in economic output. The sector seeing the largest increase in economic output is the Transportation and warehousing sector. $8,822
$5,041
$36,548
$437,320
$212,989
$270,962
$565,869
$490,252
$12,915,427
$328,935
$1,262,808
$1,760,622
$912,448
$134,851
$429,758
$94,522
$618,801
$92,001
$92,001
$247,016
$276,003
$0
$0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste management services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Annual Local Economic Output by Industry Sector
Impact DataSource | 9
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | ECONOMIC IMPACT The table below provides additional detail on the local economic impacts by industry sector.
Table 11. Total Economic Impact by Industry Sector
Household Economic Value
Employment Earnings Output Added
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.1 $2,523 $8,822 $5,041 Mining 0.0 $1,261 $5,041 $2,520
Utilities 0.0 $6,307 $36,548 $23,945
Construction 2.5 $172,823 $437,320 $228,105
Durable goods manufacturing 0.7 $52,982 $212,989 $98,299 Nondurable goods manufacturing 0.6 $42,890 $270,962 $105,861 Wholesale trade 1.4 $124,887 $565,869 $323,884
Retail trade 3.7 $146,332 $490,252 $312,542
Transportation and warehousing 26.0 $2,481,341 $12,915,427 $7,174,599 Information 0.6 $63,074 $328,935 $183,996
Finance and insurance 3.5 $292,665 $1,262,808 $680,535
Real estate and rental and leasing 6.1 $314,110 $1,760,622 $1,135,485 Professional, scientific, and technical services 4.3 $426,382 $912,448 $623,823 Management of companies and enterprises 0.5 $64,336 $134,851 $88,217 Administrative and waste management services 3.4 $162,732 $429,758 $239,447 Educational services 1.0 $42,890 $94,522 $64,273
Health care and social assistance 4.4 $269,958 $618,801 $383,116 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.8 $31,537 $92,001 $55,451 Accommodation 0.5 $23,968 $92,001 $57,971
Food services and drinking places 2.5 $78,212 $247,016 $133,586 Other services 2.1 $98,396 $276,003 $149,970
Households 0.3 $5,046 $0 $5,041
Total 64.9 $4,904,654 $21,192,995 $12,075,709
Impact DataSource | 10
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | FISCAL IMPACT Fiscal Impact Summary
The economic impacts generated by the National City Energy Transition Project will result in tax revenues for the state, city, county, and other local districts. Other nearby cities and counties may benefit from the Project; however, this analysis focuses on the local districts and utilizes the tax rate information where the Project is located.
The construction activity will result in one-time tax revenues for the state and local jurisdictions as summarized below.
Table 12. One-Time Construction-Related Tax Revenue from of the Project Sales Taxes Income Taxes Total
State of California $667,166 $84,255 $751,421
City of National City $111,194 $0 $111,194
San Diego County $194,590 $0 $194,590
Total $972,950 $84,255 $1,057,205
The on-going operations activities will result in annual tax revenues for the state and local jurisdictions as summarized below.
Table 13. Annual On-Going Tax Revenue from the Project
Annual
Annual Property
Sales Taxes Income Taxes Taxes Total
State of California $74,600 $69,492 $0 $144,092
City of National City $12,433 $0 $0 $12,433
San Diego County $21,758 $0 $109,045 $130,803
Other Districts $0 $0 $16,808 $16,808
Total $108,792 $69,492 $125,853 $304,137
The following pages detail the tax calculations.
Impact DataSource | 11
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | FISCAL IMPACT Taxable Spending
Construction-Related Taxable Spending
Taxable sales related to construction activity were presented in a previous section and included taxable construction materials and taxable construction worker spending.
Table 14. Construction-Related Taxable Spending
Amount
Taxable Materials $10,630,868
Taxable Construction Worker Spending $488,559
Total Construction-Related Taxable Spending $11,119,427 Taxable Spending by Permanent Workers
The Project is expected to generate taxable spending in the region during operations. An estimate of spending by permanent workers is provided below. The calculations shown below rely on the assumption that workers spend 12.5% of their gross earnings on taxable goods and services.
Table 15. Taxable Spending by Permanent Workers
Amount
Direct Onsite Household Earnings $4,904,654
Taxable Spending as % of Wages 25.0%
% of taxable spending in region 50.0%
Taxable Spending by Workers $613,082
Total General Taxable Spending
The table below summarizes the total general taxable spending during construction and on-going operations.
Table 16. Total General Taxable Spending
Amount
Construction-Related Taxable Spending $11,119,427
Subtotal One-time Spending $11,119,427
Taxable Spending by Workers $613,082
Taxable Spending by Company (5% Direct Spending) $630,256 Subtotal On-going Spending $1,243,338
Grand Total General Taxable Spending $12,362,765
Impact DataSource | 12
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | FISCAL IMPACT Sales Taxes
The one-time construction-related taxable spending results in sales tax revenue for the State of California and local jurisdictions as summarized below.
Table 17. One-Time Construction Sales Tax Collections
Amount
State of California Sales Tax Rate: 6.000% $667,166
City of National City Sales Tax Rate: 1.000% $111,194
San Diego County Sales Tax Rate: 1.750% $194,590
One-Time Construction Sales Tax Collections $972,950
The taxable spending supported by the on-going operation of Project will result in sales tax revenue for the State of California and local jurisdictions as summarized below.
Table 18. Annual Sales Tax Collections
Amount
State of California Sales Tax Rate: 6.000% $74,600
City of National City Sales Tax Rate: 1.000% $12,433
San Diego County Sales Tax Rate: 1.750% $21,758
Annual Sales Tax Collections $108,792
Income Taxes
The wages and salaries generated during the construction and ongoing operations of the Project will contribute to income tax revenue for the State of California. This analysis assumes that 75% of the total household earnings impact will be considered taxable income under California's income tax. Additionally, the effective tax rate is determined based on the average taxable income and the state's tax brackets for married individuals filing jointly.
Table 19. One-Time Construction Period Income Tax Collections Average Per Worker Total
Household Earnings $68,073 $6,775,331
Taxable Income (75% of Earnings) $51,055 $5,081,498
Effective Income Tax Rate 1.66% 1.66%
One-Time Construction Income Tax Collections $847 $84,255 Table 20. Annual Income Tax Collections
Average Per Worker Total
Household Earnings $75,524 $4,904,654
Taxable Income (75% of Earnings) $56,643 $3,678,490
Effective Income Tax Rate 1.89% 1.89%
Annual Income Tax Collections $1,070 $69,492
Impact DataSource | 13
Taxable Property
The table below summarizes the estimated increase in taxable property associated with the Project. The taxable value of the increase in buildings and improvements are estimated to be 75% of the capital investment made during construction. No increase in land or business personal property is expected.
Table 21. Total Increase in Taxable Property
Amount
Land $0
Building & Improvements $10,904,503
Business Personal Property $0
Total Increase in Taxable Value $10,904,503
Property Taxes
The capital investments and associated taxable property will result in property tax revenue for the county and other jurisdictions as summarized below. The property tax rates used in this analysis reflect the rates in National City, California. Property taxes in California are calculated per $100 of taxable
Table 22. Annual Property Tax Collections
Amount
City of National City Property Tax Rate: 0.00000 $0
San Diego County Property Tax Rate: 1.00000 $109,045
Other Districts Property Tax Rate: 0.15414 $16,808
Property Tax Collections $125,853
Impact DataSource | 14
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | METHODOLOGY
Overview of Methodology
This report presents the results of an analysis undertaken by Impact DataSource, an Austin, TX based economic consulting firm.
Economic impacts can be categorized into two main types of impacts. First, the direct economic impacts are the jobs and payroll directly created by the company's spending. Second, this economic impact analysis calculates the indirect and induced impacts that result from this activity. Indirect jobs and salaries are created in new or existing area firms, such as maintenance companies and service firms, that may supply goods and services. In addition, induced jobs and salaries are created in new or existing local businesses, such as retail stores, gas stations, banks, restaurants, and service companies that may supply goods and services to new workers and their families.
Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II)
The economic impact estimates in this report are based on the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II), a widely used regional input-output model developed by the U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The RIMS II model is a standard tool used to estimate regional economic impacts. The economic impacts estimated using the RIMS II model are generally recognized as reasonable and plausible assuming the data input into the model is accurate or based on reasonable assumptions. The RIMS II model is described in basic detail below.
Generally speaking, input-output modeling attempts to estimate the changes that occur in all industries based on a change in the demand for the output of an industry. An input-output model allows an analyst to identify the subsequent changes occurring in various industries within a regional economy in order to estimate the total impact on the economy. Total economic impact is the sum of three components: (1) direct, (2) indirect, and (3) induced impacts.
If the demand for the output of an industry, measured by industry sales or revenue, increases by $1.0 million, total regional output increases by $1.0 million. This initial change in output is called the change in direct economic output and also referred to as the direct expenditure effect. The change in total economic output in the region resulting from the initial change does not stop with the change in direct economic output. Businesses in a variety of industries within the region will be called upon to increase their production to meet the needs of the industry where the initial increase in demand occurs. Further, other suppliers must also increase production to meet the needs of the group of initial supplier firms to the industry. This increase in expenditures by regional suppliers is considered the indirect economic impact of the initial $1.0 million in sales, and is classified as indirect expenditures of the total economic impact or the change in indirect economic output.
The total economic impact of the $1.0 million in sales includes one more component, the induced impact. All economic activity, whether direct or indirect, that results from the initial increase in demand of $1.0 million, requires workers, and these workers must be paid for their labor. This means that part of the direct and indirect expenditures is actually in the form of wages and salaries paid to workers in the various affected industries. These wages and salaries will in turn be spent in part on goods and services produced locally in the region. This spending is another part of the regional economic impacts referred to as induced impacts and is classified as induced expenditures or the change in induced economic output.
Based on the initial direct impact, the RIMS II model can be used to estimate the direct, indirect and induced impacts on economic output, value added, earnings and employment in a given region. Economic output is gross output and is the sum of the intermediate inputs and final use. This is a duplicative total in that goods and services will be counted multiple times if they are used in the production of other goods and services. Value added is defined as the value of gross output less intermediate inputs.
Workers’ earnings or earnings consist of wages and salaries, employer provided benefits and proprietors’ income. Employment consists of a count of jobs that include both full-time and part-time workers.
The RIMS II model is based on regional multipliers, which are summary measures of economic impacts generated from changes in direct expenditures, earnings, or employment. Multipliers show the overall impact to a regional economy resulting from a change in demand in a particular industry. Multipliers can vary widely by region. Multipliers are higher for regions with a diverse Impact DataSource | 15
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | METHODOLOGY
industry mix. Industries that buy most of their materials from outside the state or region tend to have lower multipliers.
Multipliers tend to be higher for industries located in larger areas because more of the spending by the industry stays within the area.
The RIMS II model generates six types of multipliers for approximately 400 industrial sectors for any region in the United States.
The multipliers include four “final-demand” multipliers and two “direct-effect” multipliers. Final demand multipliers indicate the impact of changes in final demand for the output of a particular regional industry on total regional output, earnings, employment and value added. Direct-effect multipliers indicate the impact of changes in regional earnings or employment within a particular industry on total employment or earnings within a region.
Final-demand output multipliers indicate the total regional output (direct, indirect and induced expenditures) that results from an increase in direct expenditures for a good produced by a particular regional industry. For example, if an industry in a particular region is said to have a final demand output multiplier of 2, this tells us that a $1 increase in final demand for the good produced by that industry results in a $2 increase in total output or expenditures within the regional economy. Finaldemand earnings multipliers indicate the impact of an increase in final demand for the good of a particular regional industry on the total earned income of households within the region. Final-demand employment multipliers indicate the increase in total regional employment that results from a $1.0 million increase in final demand for the good produced by a particular regional industry. Final-demand value-added multipliers indicate the increase in total regional value added that results from a $1.0 million increase in final demand for the good produced by a particular regional industry. Direct-effect earnings multipliers indicate the impact of a $1 change in earnings within a particular regional industry on total earnings in all industries within a region. Direct-effect employment multipliers indicate the impact of a change in employment in a particular regional industry on total employment in all industries within a region.
Theoretically, changes in final demand drive the total change in economic output, earnings, and employment. However, these multipliers relationships can be used to estimate impacts in other ways if only limited information is known about a project.
For example, the multiplier relationships can be used to estimate the increase in direct economic output based on a given level of employment in a specific industry.
Additional Notes on RIMS II
RIMS II multipliers are based on the average relationships between the inputs and outputs produced in a local economy. The multipliers are a useful tool for studying the potential impacts of changes in economic activity. However, the relative simplicity of input-output multipliers comes at the cost of several limiting assumptions. · Firms have no supply constraints—Input-output based multipliers assume that industries can increase their demand for inputs and labor as needed to meet additional demand. · Firms have fixed patterns of purchases—Input-output based multipliers assume that an industry must double its inputs to double its output.
· Firms use local inputs when they are available—The method used by RIMS II to develop regional multipliers assumes that firms will purchase inputs from firms in the region before using imports.
RIMS II, like all input-output models, is a “static equilibrium” model. This means that there is no specific time dimension associated with the results using the model. For the RIMS II model, it is customary to assume that the impacts occur in one year because the model is based on annual data.
The fiscal impacts calculated in this report are described in the text of the report.
Impact DataSource | 16
NATIONAL CITY ENERGY TRANSITION PROJECT | METHODOLOGY
About Impact DataSource
Impact DataSource is an Austin economic consulting, research, and analysis firm founded in 1993. The firm has conducted over 3,500 economic impact analyses of firms, projects, and activities in most industry groups in Texas and more than 39 other states.
In addition, Impact DataSource has prepared and customized more than 150 economic impact models for its clients to perform their own analyses of economic development projects. These clients include the City of Austin, City of Dallas, City of San Antonio, Orlando Economic Partnership and others.
Impact DataSource | 17
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From: [email protected] on behalf of Fred Lefevre To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 10:09:48 AM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
Fred Lefevre
This message was sent by Fred Lefevre via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Fred Lefevre at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Christina Slentz To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Monday, September 15, 2025 11:52:14 AM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
I write you as the director of creation care ministry in the Catholic diocese of San Diego. Our mission is to spread Catholic teaching of creation care concerning our duty to be good stewards of our common home, to include the just use of our environmental resources and the protection of all life.
The USDG Fuel station proposal in its current format significantly adds to the pre-existing environmental vulnerability of Westside National City. The California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool rates this region's environmental vulnerability with a score of 87 on a scale of 0-100, with zero being the best score and 100 the worst. This assessment is based on current pollution burden and population characteristics indicative of capacity to adapt or demonstrate resilience to impacts. The exposures listed in this area include: Ozone,
Particulate Matter 2.5,
Toxic Releases,
Traffic, polluted Drinking Water, Lead from Housing, and MOST NOTABLY with the highest impact listed, Diesel Particulate Matter with a score of 83.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day, and as you likely know, breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer. THIS IS NOT JUST.
Our ministry aims to raise awareness to the “cry of the earth” and the “cry of the poor,” encourage individual and community resilience and empowerment, and advocate for the adoption of sustainable lifestyles. Therefore, I ask you to REJECT placing a polluting industry in such close proximity to our homes, schools, and churches. While St. Mary's and St.
Anthony of Padua are two Catholic Churches in this area, we advocate for ALL life, as we recognize that we are interconnected by the gift of creation, called to love and care for one another.
Please exercise your leadership wisely and with concern for those most vulnerable. Any work opportunity that is projected to come of this project would be very temporary and the payout is minimal. Do not sell out to industry unwilling to seek a cleaner and more sustainable business model for the sake of their own profitability.
In peace and hope,
Christina Slentz
Additional Public Comment:
This message was sent by Christina Slentz via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Christina Slentz at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Philip Petrie To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025 3:40:53 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
While I do not live in National City (I live in Normal Heights) I deeply support the work that the Environmental Health Coalition is doing to defeat this fuel transfer station. Being a good neighbor means that I need to weigh in too!
Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
Philip Petrie
This message was sent by Philip Petrie via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Philip Petrie at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Jillian Quint To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Thursday, October 2, 2025 6:51:31 AM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
The risk to our homes and school children are not worth the money driven in by USDG Fuels.
It is not a fair compromise to say that putting entire communities and young children at serious health risk is worth it for the jobs and money it would bring in.
Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
Jillian Quint
This message was sent by Jillian Quint via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Jillian Quint at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Jl Angell To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2025 4:12:30 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
JL Angell
This message was sent by Jl Angell via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Jl Angell at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Leah Oviedo To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 6:43:48 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
I am disturbed that the USDG project is being considered. National Ciyy has some od the worst pollution in San Diego County. We dont need more pollution that harms our community! Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
Thank you!
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
Leah Oviedo
This message was sent by Leah Oviedo via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Leah Oviedo at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Rachel Ireland To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 7:43:16 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
I’m writing as a San Diego Pediatrician who cares about health of all residents, especially those most affected by pollution... children!
Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer, plus flares up asthma, eczema, and allergies in children who learn, live, and play in the vicinity. Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Thank you,
Rachel Ireland, MD
This message was sent by Rachel Ireland via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Rachel Ireland at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Rafael Torres To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2025 8:57:17 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
I write to you as a professional engineer and environmental expert who operates here in my hometown of San Diego.
You will have no doubt received multiple emails from the Environmental Health Coalition to reject the proposed USDG fuel transfer station. They will use very passionate language and declare without evidence that this project will put lives in direct jeopardy.
They will cite that over 70 trucks per day will be spewing exhaust throughout the community as they carry biodiesel to service stations in the area. They will also cite that national city experiences worse diesel pollution than 90% of the rest of the State.
They will also cite that diesel fuel is extremely dangerous and hazardous- even putting communities at risk like what was seen in East Palestine Ohio in 2023. These are serious accusations that need to be put into context with the reality of the material, the nature of air pollution in San Diego in 2025, and most crucially, the emissions benefits that this project will yield.
As a professional engineer, it is my obligation to provide the following facts to your leadership in the service of human health, our local environment, and our economy. All I ask is that you take my viewpoint into consideration in addition to the other letters you receive. I am more than happy to follow up individually with you to go over any points in my letter in greater detail. I have done so in the past with Vice Mayor Marcus Bush on separate air quality issues and I hope that he can attest to my sincerity and accuracy to State data.
First, the additional truck trips. Currently, the fuel is trucked from further north in the State.
These trucks drive hundreds of miles round trip, emitting diesel exhaust and greenhouse gases to serve San Diego. This transfer station will include more truck trips locally, yes, but the miles they remove from the roads will be immense. Furthermore, thanks to the stringent emissions regulations from the CA Air Resources Board, the diesel trucks that can legally operate in the state run significantly cleaner than even the trucks allowed to run 10 years ago.
These new diesel engines run so clean that they have reduced tailpipe emissions from mobile truck sources by 60-80%. And they will continue to be cleaner over time.
Second, these trucks will be carrying R99 renewable diesel- made from recycled oils and soybeans. CARB studies have shown that regular diesel engines that use this fuel emit 30% less diesel PM than regular diesel. And this fuel also has an 80% smaller greenhouse gas footprint. This fuel can be used in any diesel engine and see these benefits immediately upon use. This is an excellent bridging technology as the state slowly continues to electrify. There’s no need to build out charging stations or buy new trucks. This will work now. In fact, R99 is effective that it is required by the State for use in off-road fleets, and the more accesible the fuel is, the more emissions reductions we will see as a region. 70 trucks per day carry enough fuel to remove up to 500-1000 trucks worth of emissions from the road with each load! Lastly, diesel fuel is no where near as hazardous as the EHC is purporting it to be. It does not spontaneously combust, and any incident, god forbid, would not nearly present the immediate health hazard as the vinyl chloride spill in East Palestine. On that note, the last major fires that occurred in San Diego came from the electric grid battery storage plants in Escondido and Otay Mesa. These fires are extremely dangerous, are prone to starting again after being put out, and emit highly toxic chemicals such as chromium, nickel, and manganese in their smoke.
Diesel does have its risks, but in comparison it is a much more reasonable material for first responders to contain.
In summary, I write in support of the USDG Fuel Station as someone shows life mission is to serve the community. On the contrary to what the EHC declares- the reductions in emissions will be much higher than if the project did not go through. It will also help to keep fuel costs lower in the communities that would be impacted the most, and the project would reduce thousands of truck miles off our interstates and city streets. Please do not solely listen to a loud and vocal minority who will not fairly present the pros and cons of proposed projects like these in full context. The best way to discuss my points above when accused “how much is a life worth” by detractors is to clearly state that it is exactly in the service of human health and emissions reductions that a project like this should be allowed to proceed.
Thank you for you time and consideration. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any further questions or would like to discuss any of my points above.
Respectfully,
A professional engineer who cares
This message was sent by Rafael Torres via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Rafael Torres at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Mariela Gomez To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025 7:29:50 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
I am a resident, who has asthma, a child with asthma and I would not appreciate our city adding more pollutants into our air! Polluting industries don’t belong next to our homes, schools, and churches. That is why I am asking you to REJECT USDG’s proposed fuel transfer station. This station would be on West 18th St, ~550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This project would increase truck traffic, lung-damaging pollution, create a hazard risk, and derail local clean air goals. Please protect our health and safety by voting to reject the USDG Fuels, LLC project.
To learn more, visit //bit.ly/USDGFuel25.
Don’t turn national City into a pulling ground!
Thank you,
Mariela GomezMariela Gomez
This message was sent by Mariela Gomez via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Mariela Gomez at
From: [email protected] on behalf of Z Kripke To: Clerk
Subject: REJECT USDG FUEL TRANSFER STATION
Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2025 3:56:43 PM
CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders.
Dear National City Council,
KNOWING what we already do about the bad health outcomes in National City, the idea of inviting in a fueling station is incomprehensible. Everything about this plan is a danger to people already burdened with sorrowful health statistics. This would be a mere 550 ft. from the closest residential home, and less than 1/2 mile from Kimball Elementary School and St.
Anthony of Padua Catholic Church.
The station would require about 72 heavy-duty diesel-polluting trucks (oil tankers) per day.
Residents in Westside National City already breathe more diesel pollution than 90% of communities in CA. Breathing diesel exhaust is known to damage lungs and cause cancer.
Making matters worse, trains and oil tankers would be moving large amounts of hazardous chemicals through our communities increasing the risk of a catastrophic emergency – like in Palestine, Ohio.
This must not happen to our San Diego neighbors and children in National City Thank you,
Z Kripke, La Jolla, 92037
This message was sent by Z Kripke via ActionButton, on behalf of Environmental Health Coalition. Please reply to Z Kripke at