Survey of Likely 2022 Voters
RE: Oakland Public Library Parcel Tax
Friends of the Oakland Public Library
Conducted October 2021
Summary of Results
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Methodology
Survey of likely November 2022 voters in Oakland
• Overall likely November 2022 voters: n=600; margin of error ± 4.0 % pts • Likely June 2022 subset: n=420; margin of error ± 4.8 % pts Mixed-mode methodology (telephone/web) offered in English, Spanish, and Chinese • Phone interviews conducted by trained, professional interviewers; landlines & mobile phones included • Email and text invitations were sent to complete the survey online Conducted September 29-October 6, 2021
A split sample methodology was used to test two possible ballot scenarios • Sample A, renew parcel tax at current rate of $105 by 30 years: n=300; margin of error ± 5.7 % pts • Sample B, renew parcel tax at new rate of $148 by 30 years: n=300; margin of error ± 5.7 % pts Where applicable, results compared with previous research • September 20-25, 2017; likely November 2018 voters, n=735, margin of error ± 3.6 % pts (EMC 17-6532) • January 16-18, 2018; likely June 2018 voters, n=400, margin of error ± 4.9 % pts (EMC 18-6645) Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. 21-8267 Oakland Library Parcel Tax CONFIDENTIAL | 3
Key Findings
Generally, voters are happy with and value the libraries and see a need for additional funding—at even greater numbers than seen in the past. Today, voters are supportive of extending the parcel tax at the current $105 rate for 30 years and support a measure is solidified after they learn more— being able to say this isn’t a tax increase is compelling. Support for a measure that would extend and increase the parcel tax to $148 hovers at the 2/3 threshold throughout the survey.
Opposition messaging is impactful and affects support. Many believe that the projects and programs tested are important and particularly prioritize youth space and programs and keeping the libraries open, clean, and maintained.
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Right Direction/Wrong Track: Oakland
Q3. Do you feel that things in Oakland are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Voters are much more pessimistic about the direction of the City—a shift likely related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 39%
31%
71% 68%
62%
49% 48%
20% 19%
26% 27%
45%
59%
44% 46% 44%
38%
31%
40% 44%
20% 19%
24%
33%
38%
63% 66%
54%
47%
38%
28%
36% 36%
42% 44%
60%
Right Direction Wrong Track
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36%
36%
41%
27%
15%
33%
6%
2%
2%
2%
77%
63%
8%
4%
+69
+59
2021
2017
Strongly
Approve
Somewhat
Approve
No Opinion/
Don't Know
Somewhat
Disapprove
Strongly
Disapprove
Job Rating: Oakland Public Library
Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Oakland Public Library is doing? Three-quarters of voters approve of the job the Oakland Public Library is doing—an increase since 2017.
Total
Appr.
Total
Disapp.
Net
Appr.
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Perceived Need For Funding Over Time
Q5-6. Do you think that there is a great need for additional funding, some need for additional funding, a little need for additional funding, or no real need for additional funding for…?
Perception of the need for additional funding for the Oakland Public Library and neighborhood libraries has increased since 2017 with about 4-in-5 voters currently seeing at least some need for additional funding. 45%
38%
44%
35%
36%
32%
34%
31%
6%
19%
6%
20%
6%
6%
8%
7%
6%
5%
8%
6%
2021
2017
2021
2017
The Oakland
Public
Library
Your
neighborhood
public
library
Great
need
Some
need
Don't
know
A little
need
No real
need
The Oakland
Public Library
Your
neighborhood
public library
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49%
50%
17%
16%
31%
29%
17%
16%
1%
3%
1%
3%
12%
11%
28%
23%
7%
7%
38%
42%
2021
2017
2021
2017
It is crucial to have high-
quality local public
libraries, even if it means
raising taxes.
Taxes are already too
high; I would never vote
for a tax increase no
matter how it might be
used
Strongly
Agree
Somewhat
Agree
No Opinion/
Don't Know
Somewhat
Disagree
Strongly
Disagree
General Tax Sentiment Over Time
Q8-9. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. 4-in-5 voters continue to believe that high-quality local libraries are important and fewer show a strong aversion to new taxes, generally.
It is crucial to have
high-quality local public
libraries, even if it means
raising taxes.
Taxes are already too
high; I would never vote
for a tax increase no
matter how it might be
used.
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General Tax Sentiment Over Time
Q10. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.
Trust in the City to properly manage tax dollars has dropped slightly since 2017. 6%
6%
30%
33%
2%
6%
29%
25%
34%
30%
2021
2017
Strongly
Agree
Somewhat
Agree
No Opinion/
Don't Know
Somewhat
Disagree
Strongly
Disagree
“I trust the City of Oakland to properly manage my tax dollars.” Potential
Parcel Tax Measure
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Parcel Tax Measure: Support Today
Today, many are supportive of a renewal at $150; support for a renewal and increase to $148 is hovers at the 2/3 threshold. 83%
14%
70%
25%
Lean 1%
Lean 0%
Lean 3%
Lean 0%
Total Yes
85%
Total No
14% (Undecided)
1%
Total Yes
73%
Total No
26%
(Undecided)
2%
0%
67%
Total Yes Total No (Undecided) Total Yes Total No (Undecided) Without increasing current tax rates, shall the measure to protect/improve library services throughout Oakland, including providing safe places for children/teens; providing senior programs and homelessness outreach, resources, and services; keeping neighborhood libraries open by renewing funding at the current $105 rate per single family parcel and other parcel types at specified rates, providing about $16,000,000 annually for 30 years, with audits, citizens’ oversight, and exemptions for low-income seniors/residents, be adopted? Shall the measure to protect/improve library services throughout Oakland, including providing safe places for children/teens; providing senior programs and homelessness outreach, resources, and services; keeping neighborhood libraries open by renewing funding at a new rate of $148 per single family parcel and other parcel types at specified rates, providing about $22,500,000 annually for 30 years, with audits, citizens’ oversight, and exemptions for low-income seniors/residents, be adopted? RENEWAL: $105 RENEWAL + INCREASE: $148
Q7. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? Note: a split-sample methodology was used to test each measure separately and exclusively; each sample: n=300, MoE ±5.6 % pts 21-8267 Oakland Library Parcel Tax CONFIDENTIAL | 11
Measure Components
The measure components tested are important to many voters—particularly providing safe places for children and teens.
Q11-28. I’m going to read you a list of items that could be included in the Oakland Public Library parcel tax measure. After each one, please tell me how important that item is to you.
62%
57%
56%
56%
55%
51%
49%
49%
49%
27%
30%
29%
32%
30%
30%
35%
31%
29%
1%
1%
1%
1%
8%
11%
11%
9%
11%
13%
13%
16%
14%
3%
2%
4%
2%
3%
5%
3%
4%
8%
Providing safe places for children and teens
Keeping neighborhood libraries open
Providing youth after-school homework and tutoring programs Keeping libraries safe and clean
Preventing library closures
Providing literacy services for families and adults
Keeping library bathrooms clean and open
Improving computer and internet access
Providing additional space, cleaning equipment, and staffing to keep librarians, staff, and patrons safe during the COVID pandemic Extremely
important
Very
important
(Don't
know)
Somewhat
important
Not too
important
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Measure Components
Other measure components are also important to many.
Q11-28. I’m going to read you a list of items that could be included in the Oakland Public Library parcel tax measure. After each one, please tell me how important that item is to you.
48%
47%
47%
45%
43%
42%
41%
40%
38%
35%
33%
28%
28%
32%
35%
33%
26%
36%
1%
1%
1%
1%
14%
16%
17%
15%
20%
19%
19%
20%
20%
3%
3%
8%
11%
4%
3%
6%
13%
6%
Providing up-to-date books and e-books and other materials Maintaining neighborhood library services, days, and hours Providing services such as free legal help, tax preparation, employment, and housing assistance to the community
Providing homelessness outreach, resources, and services Maintaining joint educational activities with local schools Protecting and improving library services throughout Oakland Maintaining story-time programs for young children
Providing emergency COVID-19 services and resources
Providing programs for seniors
Extremely
important
Very
important
(Don't
know)
Somewhat
important
Not too
important
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Example Messages Tested
Q29-38, 40-45. Next I’d like to read you some statements from people who support/oppose the measure. After each one, please tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to vote for/against the measure—very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing.
Messages tested in the poll, both in favor and against a measure, were compelling to many voters.
Supportive Messaging
Safe Place for Youth:
Oakland’s libraries provide a safe place for children and teens to do their homework and participate in afterschool programs. This measure will allow our libraries to continue programs and resources for children and teens helping to keep them engaged in positive and creative activities and preparing them for careers and higher education.
Sample A Only – Renewal:
This measure is not a tax increase. It simply renews the existing tax rate and doesn’t increase what taxpayers currently pay.
Community Resource:
Oakland’s libraries are valuable community resources that help Oakland residents find jobs, get free legal advice, housing assistance, borrow tools, enroll in health insurance, and learn other important life skills. This measure will allow our libraries to continue providing these important programs and resources to the community.
Opposition Messaging
Manage Funds:
Instead of asking taxpayers for more money, politicians should find more funding for libraries in the City’s budget by reducing waste and cutting excessive pay and benefits. They just need to tighten their belts and manage their money better.
Taxes Too High:
Now is not the time for this major tax increase for libraries. Taxes are already too high, and people are losing their jobs and their homes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We cannot add more burden on families who are already struggling.
City Taking Funds:
This measure is a trick. The City says this is for libraries, but in reality it just puts the burden of supporting libraries on taxpayers and frees up City money for them to use however they want.
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Vote Progression
Positive messaging helped to solidify support and opposition messaging was impactful.
Note: a split-sample methodology was used to test each measure separately and exclusively; each sample: n=300, MoE ±5.7 % pts Q7,Q39,Q46. Would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 83%
14%
87%
9%
76%
20%
70%
25%
73%
23%
62%
33%
Lean 1%
Lean 0%
Lean 1%
Lean 0%
Lean 3%
Lean 0%
Lean 3%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 1%
Total Yes
85%
Total No
14%
Total Yes
88%
Total No
9%
Total Yes
78%
Total No
20%
Total Yes
73%
Total No
26%
Total Yes
75%
Total No
23%
Total Yes
64%
Total No
34%
0%
67%
Initial After Info After Opp Initial After Info After Opp RENEWAL: $105 RENEWAL + INCREASE: $148
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Vote Progression, by Electorate
Statistically, there is no difference in support for a measure between the likely June and likely November electorates.
Note: likely Nov ‘22 n=600, MoE ±4.0 % pts; likely June ‘22 n=420, MOE ± 4.8 % pts Average of both ballot questions shown
Likely November 2022 Voters Likely June 2022 Voters
76%
20%
80%
16%
69%
26%
77%
20%
80%
15%
70%
25%
Lean 2%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 1%
Lean 2%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 0%
Lean 2%
Lean 1%
Total Yes
79%
Total No
20%
Total Yes
82%
Total No
16%
Total Yes
71%
Total No
27%
Total Yes
79%
Total No
20%
Total Yes
82%
Total No
16%
Total Yes
72%
Total No
26%
0%
67%
Initial After Info After Opp Initial After Info After Opp 21-8267 Oakland Library Parcel Tax CONFIDENTIAL | 16
Conclusions & Recommendations
Voters are supportive of a measure to renew the parcel tax at the current $105 rate. A measure that would renew the parcel tax with an increase has some support among voters but is much more vulnerable.
These are reassuring numbers, but the recent environment has been volatile, and we shouldn’t take anything for granted.
A campaign effort is recommended to help solidify support and get ahead of potential opposition to a measure.
Statistically, there is no difference in support between the likely November and June electorates—other factors should be considered in this the timing of the measure.
There may be some potential for adjustments to the components highlighted in the ballot question; however, the measure components tested are important to many.
Emily Goodman
[email protected]
510.550.8932
Andie Morhous
[email protected]
510.550.8808
Elizabeth Kaczorowski
[email protected]
510.550.8934
Tom Clifford
[email protected]
510.907.3195
Angelina Cornejo
[email protected]
510.907.3195