Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
AGENDA REPORT
TO: Jestin D. Johnson FROM: Holly Joshi
City Administrator Chief of Violence Prevention
SUBJECT: Contract Amendment with the
University of Pennsylvania for
Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
DATE: November 10, 2025
City Administrator Approval Date:
RECOMMENDATION
Staff Recommends That The City Council Adopt A Resolution:
1. Amending Resolution No. 90732 C.M.S. To Correct The Business Name From University Of Pennsylvania’s Crime And Justice Policy Lab To The Trustees Of The University Of Pennsylvania; And
2. Amending A Professional Services Agreement With The Trustees Of The University Of Pennsylvania For The Term Starting July 1, 2025, To Add Three Hundred Sixty-Two Thousand Eighty-Seven Dollars ($362,087) For A Total Amount Not To Exceed Four Hundred Thirty-Nine Thousand Nine Hundred Fifty-Two Dollars ($439,952) And To Extend The End Date To December 31, 2028, To Evaluate The City Of Oakland’s Ceasefire-Lifeline Strategy; And
3. Waiving The City Of Oakland’s Local And Small Local Business Enterprise Program Requirements And Competitive Bidding Process
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The proposed resolution, if adopted, will allow the City Administrator to amend a contract with the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania to expand the scope of an evaluation of the City of Oakland’s Ceasefire-Lifeline strategy. The amendment will add $362,087 to the current contract amount of $77,865, for a total cost of $439,952, and it will extend the end date of the contract from December 31, 2027, to December 31, 2028. The additional funding is available in two external grants maintained by the Department of Violence Prevention and will allow researchers to better assess the impact of life coaching services on participant outcomes and the overall impact on shootings and homicides in Oakland.
BACKGROUND / LEGISLATIVE HISTORY
The Department of Violence Prevention (DVP) is charged with reducing gun violence, domestic violence, and commercial sexual exploitation in Oakland. To do this, the DVP invests in Jestin Johnson (Nov 21, 2025 10:26:51 PST)
11/21/2025
Jestin D, Johnson, City Administrator
Subject: Contract Amendment with the University of Pennsylvania for Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
Date: November 10, 2025 Page 2
Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
immediate crisis response services and near-term interventions that stabilize victims and prevent additional violence, as well as longer-term, intensive support services for individuals caught in cycles of violence. In service of these goals, the DVP performs three primary functions:
1. Supervise and deploy a team of direct service staff who perform intensive life coaching and violence interruption work with individuals at highest risk of imminent group and gender-based violence.
2. Fund and coordinate community organizations to deliver a range of community violence intervention services to individuals at the center of violence.
3. Build capacity among community violence intervention workers who form the ecosystem of community violence intervention services in Oakland to enhance our collective capacity to prevent violence and deliver effective and coordinated services.
The DVP plays an integral role in the City of Oakland’s primary public safety strategy known as Ceasefire-Lifeline, which is an evidence-based, data-driven, cross-sector strategy for reducing group-related shootings and homicides by focusing social services and enforcement efforts on individuals who are most likely to be victims or perpetrators of gun violence in the near term.
The DVP implements the prevention and intervention (“Lifeline”) components of the strategy by relentlessly pursuing individuals at greatest risk to engage them in intensive services that support changes in mindsets and behaviors to avoid future violence. Violence interrupters relentlessly pursue individuals at the highest risk for gun violence to build relationships with the goal of connecting them to intensive DVP services. Violence interrupters also maintain a high- visibility presence in impacted communities, building relationships, identifying and mediating group conflicts, and preventing retaliatory violence. Life coaches work closely with participants to identify factors driving their participation in violence, develop and implement strategies to reduce risk, and build the safety nets and supports needed to increase protective factors.
In October 2024, the DVP received the following two external grants to expand its capacity to deliver Ceasefire-Lifeline services:
1. A three-year grant for $3,500,000 from Kaiser Permanente that funds three life coaches, one violence interrupter (Resolution 90497 C.M.S.).
2. A three-year grant for $2,000,000 from the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA)’s Community-Based Violence Intervention and Prevention Initiative (CVIPI) that funds three life coaches (Resolution 90508 C.M.S.).
Each grant requires the DVP to evaluate grant activities and submit a final evaluation report at the end of the grant period. On July 1, 2025, the DVP entered a professional services agreement with The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania for $77,865 for researchers from the University of Pennsylvania’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab to evaluate the intensive life coaching services delivered as part of these grants (Resolution 90732 C.M.S.). This evaluation was limited to descriptive outcomes for life coaching services rather than an impact evaluation that employed a control group, and it did not include an evaluation of the strategy overall.
In the fall of 2025, both funders approved budget modifications submitted by the DVP to reallocate cost savings due to hiring delays and changes in staff benefit percentages to increase Jestin D, Johnson, City Administrator
Subject: Contract Amendment with the University of Pennsylvania for Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
Date: November 10, 2025 Page 3
Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
evaluation funding. These budget modifications resulted in an additional $362,087 available for evaluation purposes.
ANALYSIS AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES
The proposed resolution, if adopted, will amend an existing contract with The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania for $77,865 from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, to add $362,087, for a total contract amount of $439,952. It will also extend the end date of the contract by one year to December 31, 2028. The additional funding and extended timeline will significantly expand the elements of the scope of the evaluation and its ability to assess impact.
Specifically, the elements of the evaluation noted in bold italics below will now be possible:
1. Trend Analysis of Homicides and Shootings
a. Analyze monthly and yearly counts of homicides and shootings from 2021-2026 with comparisons to trends in similar California cities. b. Synthetic difference-in-differences analysis of monthly and yearly counts of homicides and shootings 2021-2026 (pre- and post-intervention).
2. Descriptive Analysis of Direct Communications
o Analyze trends in monthly counts of direct communication deliveries 2024-2026. o Summarize characteristics of direct communication recipients (e.g., demographics, group/gang associations).
o Summarize the characteristics of client s receiving repeat direct communications. o Regression analysis of victimization and criminal justice outcomes for matched treatment (contact made) and control subjects (no contact made).
3. Descriptive Analysis of Life Coaching
o Analyze trends in the month counts of life coaching enrollments and caseloads. o Summarize characteristics of life coaching enrollees (e.g., demographics, group/gang associations).
o Summarize services received by life coaching enrollees. o Qualitative interviews with life coaching enrollees.
4. Analysis of Life Coaching Participant Outcomes
o Summarize prosocial outcomes (e.g., employment and education achievements) and analyze differences by length of enrollment and services received. o Analyze criminal justice outcomes (e.g., rearrest, conviction) with comparisons to direct communication recipients who did not enroll in life coaching. o Analyze victimization outcomes with comparisons to direct communication recipients who did not enroll in life coaching.
o Regression analysis of criminal justice outcomes (e.g., rearrest, conviction) for matched treatment (participated in life coaching) and control subjects (direct communication recipients who did not enroll in life coaching). o Regression analysis of victimization outcomes (e.g., rearrest, conviction) for matched treatment (participated in life coaching) and control subjects (direct communication recipients who did not enroll in life coaching).
Jestin D, Johnson, City Administrator
Subject: Contract Amendment with the University of Pennsylvania for Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
Date: November 10, 2025 Page 4
Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
The DVP originally chose to work with Drs. Anthony Braga and Lisa Barao from the University of Pennsylvania’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab for this evaluation because they are national experts in the evaluation of focused deterrence strategies for gun violence reduction such as Ceasefire-Lifeline. Together, they have authored numerous publications in peer-reviewed journals regarding the evaluation of focused deterrence strategies in dozens of cities across the county, including recent evaluations in San Francisco and Stockton. They have specific prior experience conducting evaluation work in Oakland, as they evaluated Oakland’s Ceasefire- Lifeline strategy from 2012 to 2017 and found that 31.5% of the city’s nearly 50% reduction in homicides at that time was due to the strategy. They have also conducted 3 separate problem analyses of gun violence in Oakland since 2016, allowing the City of Oakland to consistently monitor drivers of gun violence in Oakland by documenting the circumstances of shootings and homicides, victim and suspect demographics, and group conflicts and alliances. In conducting the prior Ceasefire-Lifeline evaluation and problem analyses, Drs. Braga and Barao worked closely with the Oakland Police Department to obtain and interpret the required crime data.
They also worked closely with staff from the DVP and formerly Oakland Unite to obtain the necessary service delivery data.
The proposed resolution advances the citywide priority of holistic community safety by generating learnings that will enhance the DVP’s capacity to deliver life-saving intensive life coaching services to individuals at greatest risk of gun violence. It also addresses the citywide priority of responsive, trustworthy government by allowing an external evaluation partner to evaluate and publicly share results related to the City of Oakland’s Ceasefire strategy.
FISCAL IMPACT
Approval of this proposed resolution will authorize the City Administrator to amend the existing contract with The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania for $77,865 to add $362,087, for a total contract amount of $439,952. Partial funding for this increase ($127,957) is approved in the DVP’s Kaiser grant and available in Project (1007638), Award (24645), Fund (2994), Fostering Safe and Healthy Communities Program (SC22), and Organization (70211) Violence Prevention: External. Additional funding for this increase (up to $234,130) is approved in the DVP’s BJA grant budget and available in Project (1007639), Award (24643), Fund (2112), Fostering Safe and Healthy Communities Program (SC22), and Organization (70211) Violence Prevention: External. Any remaining funding required for this amendment is available in Project (1006367), Fund (1010), Fostering Safe and Healthy Communities Program (SC22), and Organization (70211) Violence Prevention: External.
PUBLIC OUTREACH / INTEREST
No public outreach was deemed necessary for the proposed resolution beyond the standard City Council agenda noticing procedures. However, the DVP discusses and reports on its work related to the Ceasefire-Lifeline strategy regularly with faith-based partners involved in the Ceasefire-Lifeline partnership group and with the City Council’s Public Safety Committee. These groups strongly support a robust external evaluation of Ceasefire-Lifeline.
Jestin D, Johnson, City Administrator
Subject: Contract Amendment with the University of Pennsylvania for Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
Date: November 10, 2025 Page 5
Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
COORDINATION
The City Attorney’s Office, Budget Bureau, and City Administrator’s Office were consulted during the preparation of this agenda report and resolution.
PAST PERFORMANCE, EVALUATION, AND FOLLOW-UP
The Ceasefire-Lifeline strategy has been studied extensively in cities across the country and is widely viewed by experts as the most effective approach to reducing group-driven gun violence.
Oakland first implemented Ceasefire-Lifeline in 2012 and experienced a 31.5% reduction in gun homicides that was directly attributable to the strategy. Since reimplementing the model with fidelity in February 2024, Oakland ended 2024 with reductions of 33% and 32% in shootings and homicides, respectively, compared to 2023. As of October 26, 2025, Oakland has experienced 222 shootings and 46 homicides in 2025, representing a reduction of 50% and 54% in shootings and homicides, respectively, compared to 2023
SUSTAINABLE OPPORTUNITIES
Economic: There are no economic opportunities associated with this report.
Environmental: There are no environmental opportunities associated with this report.
Race & Equity: The Ceasefire-Lifeline strategy serves individuals at the highest risk of imminent gun violence, the majority of whom are African American or Latino males. A rigorous external evaluation of this strategy will assess its impact and ensure funding is being used to maximize positive outcomes for this vulnerable population.
Jestin D, Johnson, City Administrator
Subject: Contract Amendment with the University of Pennsylvania for Ceasefire-Lifeline Evaluation
Date: November 10, 2025 Page 6
Public Safety Committee
December 9, 2025
ACTION REQUESTED OF THE CITY COUNCIL
Staff Recommends That The City Council Adopt A Resolution:
1. Amending Resolution No. 90732 C.M.S. To Correct The Business Name From University Of Pennsylvania’s Crime And Justice Policy Lab To The Trustees Of The University Of Pennsylvania; And
2. Amending A Professional Services Agreement With The Trustees Of The University Of Pennsylvania For The Term Starting July 1, 2025, To Add Three Hundred Sixty-Two Thousand Eighty-Seven Dollars ($362,087) For A Total Amount Not To Exceed Four Hundred Thirty-Nine Thousand Nine Hundred Fifty-Two Dollars ($439,952) And To Extend The End Date To December 31, 2028, To Evaluate The City Of Oakland’s Ceasefire-Lifeline Strategy; And
3. Waiving The City Of Oakland’s Local And Small Local Business Enterprise Program Requirements And Competitive Bidding Process
For questions regarding this report, please contact Holly Joshi, Chief of Violence Prevention, at (510) 920-6272.
Respectfully submitted,
Holly Joshi
Chief of Violence Prevention
Reviewed by:
Mailee Wang, Deputy Chief of Administration
Prepared by:
Jenny Linchey, Deputy Chief of Grants,
Programs, and Evaluation
Holly Joshi (Nov 20, 2025 17:12:39 PST)