City of Orange
Budget Priority and
Revenue Measure Issues Survey
220-6992
2 December 12-20, 2023Dates
Dual-mode Voter SurveySurvey Type
Likely November 2024 VotersResearch Population
947 City of Orange Likely November 2024 VotersTotal Interviews (Full Sample) ±3.3% at the 95% Confidence Level
(Half Sample – Each Measure) ±4.6% at the 95% Confidence Level Margin of
Sampling Error
Contact Methods
Data Collection Modes
English, Spanish and VietnameseLanguages
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding) Text
Invitations
Telephone
Calls
Email
Invitations
Telephone
Interviews
Online
Interviews
Survey Specifics and Methodology
3CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOV’T CODE 7927.
Mood and Perception of City
4 Q1.
Right
Direction
46%
Wrong
Track
27%
Don't
Know/
Refused
27%
A plurality have a favorable perception of
the direction of the City of Orange.
Would you say that things in the City of Orange are generally headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 5 Homelessness, public safety issues, and affordable housing are the most serious issues volunteered by respondents that they would like to see City government do something about.
Q2. What do you think is the most serious issue facing the residents of the City of Orange that you would like to see City government do something about? 33%
27%
14%
8%
6%
6%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
9%
3%
1%
Homelessness
Crime/Safety/Drugs
Affordable housing
Traffic/Congestion/Parking
Education
Overpopulation/Growth/Development
Road repairs/Infrastructure
Graffiti/Blight/Trash
Government/Politicians
Immigration
Street vendors
Everything is good
Other
Don't know/Unsure
Refused/No comment
(Grouped Open-end Responses; Multiple Responses Accepted) 6 Six-in-10 perceive the City of Orange has at least
some need for additional funds; however only
one-quarter said “great need.”
Q4. In your personal opinion, do you think the City of Orange has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funds to provide the level of City services that Orange residents need and want? 25%
35%
9%
15%
16%
Great need
Some need
A little need
No real need
Don't know
A Little/
No Real Need
24%
Great/
Some Need
60%
7CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOV’T CODE 7927.
Hypothetical Ballot
Measure Questions
8 Hypothetical Ballot Title and Summaries
Tested in the Survey
Q5 & Q7. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample (As Approved by Legal Counsel)
(Sales Tax)
Shall the measure providing funding for City of Orange’s services such as maintaining 911 emergency response, police/fire protection, gang prevention programs; recruiting/retaining well-trained police officers/firefighters; preventing property crimes ; addressing homelessness; keeping public areas/parks safe/clean; repairing streets/potholes; retaining/attracting local businesses; and for general government use by establishing a 1% sales tax providing approximately $50,000,000 annually until ended by voters; requiring audits, public spending disclosure, all funds locally controlled, be adopted? (Transient Occupancy Tax)
Shall the measure providing funding for City of Orange’s services such as maintaining 911 emergency response, police/fire protection; preventing property crimes; addressing homelessness; keeping public areas/parks safe/clean; repairing streets/potholes; and for general government use by increasing City of Orange’s transient occupancy tax, paid only by hotel/motel and short-term rental guests from 10% to 15% providing approximately $2,700,000 annually until ended by voters; requiring audits, public spending disclosure, all funds locally controlled, be adopted?
City of Orange Public Safety/City Services Measure
9 27%
17%
6%
5%
11%
27%
7%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
50%
Q5. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 44%
Total
No
43%
Overall, one-in-two initially support the simple
majority sales tax measure, with roughly one-quarter
having said they would definitely vote yes.
(1% Sales Tax, M.O.E. = ±4.6%)
10 60%
27%
45%
34%
72%
40%
6% 1%
15%
Great/Some Need A Little/No Real Need Don't Know
Total Yes Total No Undecided
The more one perceives the City of Orange has a need
for additional funds, the more one is likely to vote yes.
Q5. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample (% of
Sample) (61%) (22%) (17%)
Initial Vote on the 1% Sale Tax Measure by Perception that the City of Orange Needs Additional Funds 11 Lowering the sales tax rate by a ½% does not
make a significant difference in the level of
support for a measure.
Q5. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample Q6. What if the proposed measure I just described established a ½% sales tax, raising $25,000,000, instead of the 1% sales tax I just described which would raise $50,000,000? If that were the case, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 1% Sales Tax ½% Sales Tax
27%
17%
6%
5%
11%
27%
7%
28%
19%
3%
4%
11%
27%
8%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
50%
Total
Yes
50%
44% 47%
Total
No
43%
Total
No
42%
(M.O.E. = ±4.6%)
12 33%
25%
6%
3%
9%
13%
11%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
64%
Q7. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 58%
Total
No
25%
Overall, slightly less than two-thirds initially support the simple majority TOT measure, with roughly
one-third having said they would definitely vote yes.
(TOT Measure, M.O.E. = ±4.6%)
13 75%
44%
57%
12%
50%
27%
12%
6%
16%
Great/Some Need A Little/No Real Need Don't Know
Total Yes Total No Undecided
The more one perceives the City of Orange has a need
for additional funds, the more one is likely to vote yes.
Q7. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample (% of
Sample) (58%) (26%) (15%)
Initial Vote on the TOT Measure by Perception that the City of Orange Needs Additional Funds 14CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOV’T CODE 7927.
Budget Priorities
15 60%
59%
59%
54%
49%
47%
59%
52%
29%
31%
29%
32%
37%
39%
26%
34%
8%
8%
8%
10%
12%
11%
10%
8%
5%
7%
^Maintaining 911 emergency
response
Maintaining fire protection and
paramedic services
Preventing property crimes,
including thefts and burglaries
Recruiting and retaining well-trained
paramedics and firefighters
^Keeping public areas and parks
safe and clean
Maintaining fire protection
^Addressing homelessness
Recruiting and retaining well-trained
police officers
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
89%
89%
88%
86%
86%
86%
85%
85%
Q8. I am going to read you a list of possible projects, features, and provisions that might be included in this local ballot measure. Regardless of how you feel about this measure, as I read each one, please tell me how important it is to you personally that each provision or use of funds is included in the measure:
extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample (Ranked by Extremely/Very Important)
Public safety-related services and staff lead voter priorities, with addressing homelessness, ensuring children have
safe places to play and keeping all funds local also
considered top priorities by high percentages.
16 Continued
Q8. I am going to read you a list of possible projects, features, and provisions that might be included in this local ballot measure. Regardless of how you feel about this measure, as I read each one, please tell me how important it is to you personally that each provision or use of funds is included in the measure:
extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample (Ranked by Extremely/Very Important)
49%
48%
55%
53%
39%
46%
45%
39%
35%
34%
35%
36%
28%
30%
41%
33%
34%
40%
44%
44%
11%
11%
11%
8%
16%
13%
15%
15%
18%
15%
6%
5%
6%
9%
8%
6%
6%
6%
Preventing property crimes
Helping ensure children have
safe places to play
Requiring all funds benefit City of
Orange residents
Maintaining police protection
^Repairing streets and potholes
Maintaining safe routes to schools
^Preparing for and responding to
wildfires and natural disasters
Maintaining emergency response
times to local freeway accidents
Maintaining city services
Maintaining parks
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
84%
84%
83%
83%
81%
79%
79%
79%
79%
79%
17 Ext./Very
Impt.
78%
78%
78%
77%
77%
76%
74%
73%
73%
70%
Continued
Q8. I am going to read you a list of possible projects, features, and provisions that might be included in this local ballot measure. Regardless of how you feel about this measure, as I read each one, please tell me how important it is to you personally that each provision or use of funds is included in the measure:
extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample (Ranked by Extremely/Very Important)
45%
44%
43%
56%
40%
44%
36%
40%
30%
43%
34%
35%
34%
21%
36%
32%
38%
34%
43%
26%
14%
13%
13%
13%
15%
17%
19%
19%
22%
18%
7%
9%
9%
9%
8%
7%
7%
7%
5%
12%
Maintaining gang prevention programs
Maintaining neighborhood police patrols
Requiring all funds are locally controlled
Reducing availability of opioids
such as fentanyl
^Protecting the City of Orange’s
long-term financial stability
Maintaining gang enforcement programs
Retaining and attracting local businesses
Addressing mental health and
addiction challenges
Maintaining parks and
recreation programs
Requiring audits
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./Don't Know 18CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOV’T CODE 7927.
Effects of Education and
Critical Statements
19 35%
40%
33%
38%
32%
37%
73%
71%
70%
Much More Incl. Smwt. More Incl.
(RESPONSE TIMES - MEDICAL) So far this year alone,
approximately 83% of calls to the City of Orange Fire Department have been related to medical emergencies. This measure will ensure that the City of Orange has the needed firefighters and paramedics, and lifesaving equipment to maintain its emergency response times and save lives.
^(HOMELESS) Last year the City of Orange had one of the highest numbers of homeless individuals in North Orange County.
This measure will help provide funding for the City to address homelessness by connecting them with available non-profit and regional services, including mental health and substance abuse treatment, emergency shelter, food services, and health and social services. This will also ensure The Plaza, and other business districts, parks and public areas are safe and secure for everyone. (PARKS) The City of Orange prides itself on 22 parks serving the community, but the City does not have the funding needed to continue to keep them clean and safe. This measure will upgrade playgrounds, so children have safe places to play;
repair park bathrooms and leaky roofs; update safety lighting and keep park facilities clean.
Ensuring the City has the needed firefighters, paramedics and equipment to maintain its emergency response; and helping provide funding to address homelessness are among leading reasons to support the measure.
(Ranked by Total More Inclined to Vote Yes)
Q9. I am going to read you some statements from people who may support the potentialCity of Orange Public Safety/City Services Measureyou considered earlier. Please tell me if this makes you more inclined to vote Yes on this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample 20 28%
40%
38%
40%
28%
30%
69%
68%
68%
Much More Incl. Smwt. More Incl.
(WILDFIRES) The Freeway Complex Fire and the Canyon Fires are important reminders that our community is vulnerable to ongoing threats of Santa Ana winds that lead to wildfires. This measure will improve the City’s ability to respond to one or more fires before they get out of control by helping to retain and attract well-qualified firefighters; update the fire equipment and trucks; and support efforts to reduce the risk of wildfires.
(PROPERTY CRIME) Last year in the City of Orange, there were over 1,800 reported burglaries and thefts, including 480 reported car thefts. This measure will help maintain 911 emergency response times, and police patrols in neighborhoods and business areas to keep residents and their property safe. ^(ACCOUNTABILITY) This measure includes tough accountability provisions such as public disclosure of all spending and annual independent financial audits. These fiscal safeguards will ensure that funds from this measure will be used efficiently, effectively and as promised.
(Ranked by Total More Inclined to Vote Yes)
Continued
Q9. I am going to read you some statements from people who may support the potentialCity of Orange Public Safety/City Services Measureyou considered earlier. Please tell me if this makes you more inclined to vote Yes on this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample 21 36%
28%
42%
31%
38%
23%
67%
66%
65%
Much More Incl. Smwt. More Incl.
^(LOCAL CONTROL) In the last five years alone, Sacramento and DC politicians have taken away tens of millions of dollars in funding and local tax revenue from the City. All funds raised by this measure are legally required to be spent in the City of Orange, which will ensure local control of this revenue and provide a guaranteed source of funding for city services that cannot be taken by Sacramento or Washington, DC.
^(STREETS) Prior to this year’s rainy season, independent engineers rated nearly one-quarter of the City of Orange’s streets and roads as “fair,” “poor,” or “very poor”; the roads have only gotten worse.
It is time we fund these needed street and pothole repairs before the problem gets even worse and more expensive to fix.
(PATROLS)During certain times of the day, there are no more than ten police officers patrolling our City, which makes up more than 137,000 residents plus visitors. This measure would help retain and attract police officers to increase the number of patrols and keep neighborhoods and residents safe.
(Ranked by Total More Inclined to Vote Yes)
Continued
Q9. I am going to read you some statements from people who may support the potentialCity of Orange Public Safety/City Services Measureyou considered earlier. Please tell me if this makes you more inclined to vote Yes on this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample 22 After education, overall support for the 1% sales tax increases 10 percentage points from 50 to 60 percent.
Q5 & Q10. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample Initial Vote Vote After Education
31%
19%
11%
4%
8%
21%
6%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
60%
50%
Total
No
34%
(1% Sales Tax, M.O.E. = ±4.6%)
27%
17%
6%
5%
11%
27%
7%
Total
Yes
50%
44%
Total
No
43%
23 After education, overall support for the TOT increases six percentage points from 64 to 70 percent.
Q7 & Q11. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample (TOT Measure, M.O.E. = ±4.6%)
Initial Vote Vote After Education
40%
26%
4%
2%
6%
11%
11%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
70%
66%
Total
No
19%
33%
25%
6%
3%
9%
13%
11%
Total
Yes
64%
58%
Total
No
25%
24 Q5, Q7, Q10 & Q11. If the election were held today, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 27%
17%
6%
5%
11%
27%
7%
33%
25%
6%
3%
9%
13%
11%
40%
26%
4%
2%
6%
11%
11%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided,
lean yes
Undecided,
lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
50%
Total
Yes
64%
Total
Yes
70%
44% 58% 66%
Total
No
43%
Total
No
25%
Total
No
19%
1% Sales Tax Measure
Initial
Vote
Vote After
Education
After education, both measures receive support above the threshold for passage and above the margin error; however, the intensity of support for the TOT is much greater than the sales tax.
TOT Measure
Initial
Vote
Vote After
Education
(M.O.E. = ±4.6% for Each Measure)
31%
19%
11%
4%
8%
21%
6%
Total
Yes
60%
50%
Total
No
34%
25CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOV’T CODE 7927.
Conclusions
26 Conclusions
General Perceptions of the City:
A plurality perceive things in Orange are headed in the right direction.
Top of mind concerns include homelessness; crime, safety, and drugs; and affordable housing.
Six-in-ten perceive that the City needs at least some additional funds, but only one-quarter believe there is a “great need.” Revenue Measure:
A sales tax could be viable, but it will require considerable educational outreach.
A TOT increase of 5%, with education appears viable.
27 Conclusions; Continued
Budget Priorities include:
Maintaining 9-1-1 emergency response
Fire protection
Preventing property crimes
Addressing homelessness
Recruiting and retaining well-trained paramedics, firefighters and police officers
City of Orange
Budget Priority and
Revenue Measure Issues Survey
220-6992