City Council
Staff Report
From: City Manager
Report Type: STUDY SESSION
Lead Department: Community Services
Meeting Date: December 15, 2025
Report #:2503-4355
TITLE
Receive an Update on the Cubberley Project and Second Polling Results, and Discuss Next Steps.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff and the Cubberley Ad Hoc Committee recommend the City Council receive an update on the Cubberley project and Poll #2 results, and discuss next steps.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Advancing a Memorandum of Understanding with the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD), the City is master planning a 15-acre portion of the Cubberley site including seven acres proposed to be purchased from PAUSD for $65.5 million. The purchase is dependent on voter approval of a funding ballot measure planned for November 2026. A master concept plan to provide a long-term vision for the campus is being refined based on robust community engagement. The master plan and associated California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) document will be presented to the City Council in March 2026.
In preparation for the November 2026 ballot measure, polling is being conducted to gage voter support of a bond or tax measure. Two of four planned polls have been completed. The results are not surprising, and indicate:
broad voter support for the City to acquire the Cubberley property support for limited funding for improvements, primarily focusing on safety and repairs/renovation of facilities
These results reinforce the importance of a multipart funding strategy for improving facilities, including community partners and other funding sources such as development impact fees, grants, and philanthropy. At the same time, the ballot measure is foundational to the viability of these other resources. The Cubberley Ad Hoc Committee and staff recommend that next steps focus on continuing to refine the ballot measure options and approach while pursuing these resources.
Results of the second poll indicate relatively higher voter support for parcel tax and sales tax funding mechanisms, and the $250 average estimated annual rate parcel tax reached above 50%. The parcel tax with $250 average estimated annual cost per household could support financing $102 million of capital expense that would allow for land purchase and minor building renovations. A sales tax increase of 0.5% (½ cent) could support financing $218 million of capital expense and specific sales tax level(s) will be incorporated into the third poll. Currently, the City has 0.25% capacity within the State cap on voter approved local sales tax. The City would need to obtain authorization from the State before implementing the ½ cent increase.
The third poll, expected to be launched in January 2026 will test voter opinion of ballot questions that focus on potential square footage parcel tax and potential sales tax measure.
BACKGROUND
There has been extensive foundational work completed to support the advancement of the Cubberley Project, including community engagement and several actions by the City Council.
Attachment A shares a summary of actions and progress to date and the history of the Cubberley site.
Development of Master Concept Plan
The Cubberley master plan represents a long-term vision for the site. A draft concept plan was presented to the City Council on October 20, 20251 with significant attention placed on a phased approach for site development that includes renovation of existing buildings and some new construction dependent on additional revenue sources. The intent of the phased approach is to allow the site to be developed over time, recognizing that funding availability is a significant factor in site redevelopment timing.
Since staff last presented to the City Council in October, work has focused on refining the concept plan, continuing CEQA analysis, finalizing construction cost estimates, and analyzing debt financing options. At the same time, the second community poll was launched, and results are discussed in this report. Engagement with the existing long-term tenants at Cubberley has continued with a tenant survey to understand future tenant needs.
Timing for the Cubberley project depends on funding availability, especially the outcome of the ballot measure in November 2026. Conversations with community partners in recreation, wellness, and performing arts are ongoing and present an opportunity for partner contributions toward capital costs.
Work completed to date can be found on the City’s website at www.paloalto.gov/improvecubberley. Staff reports related to this project can be found under the “Archived Work on Cubberley” section of the webpage.
1 City Council, October 20, 2025; Agenda Item #1; SR#2503-4353, https://cityofpaloalto.primegov.com/viewer/preview?id=0&type=8&uid=71b7244b-dd63-4983-814f-fc85664f01cd
ANALYSIS
Results of Second Community Poll
The City engaged with Fairbank, Maslin, Metz & Associates (FM3) to develop and conduct polling on public opinion in advance of potentially placing a measure on the November 2026 ballot. The City’s workplan includes four rounds of polling: the first released in April 2025, the second released in November 2025, the third to be released in January 2026 and the final poll to be released in April.
The poll was discussed by the City Council on October 20, 20253, then ran from November 6 through 13, with a total of 407 residents interviewed via phone and online. The poll results are attached to this report (Attachment B) and summarized below:
Two-thirds of likely voters want the Cubberley Community Center updated as a visionary goal.
Both the first and second polls show consistency in effectiveness of two specific themes and should be emphasized moving forward:
1. Upgrading old wiring/plumbing
2. Meeting current safety standards
Most are satisfied with the current programs and services offered at Cubberley. Willingness to invest in a package that is focused on basic repairs and upgrades to meet safety and accessibility standards.
Voters’ willingness to pay for improvements to Cubberley are more favorable via a parcel tax or sales tax.
Results of this poll were reviewed by the Cubberley Ad Hoc on December 2 and 10. As next steps, staff and the Cubberley Ad Hoc Committee recommend that the third poll be in the field in January (previously planned for February). The third poll will further clarify the voter support for project funding strategy.
First, to test voter support of these two more viable measures, the focus of the third poll is to test voter opinion on draft ballot questions that focus on potential square footage parcel tax and potential sales tax measures. The parcel tax and sales tax options were more positively supported by voters in the second poll. The City is a regional shopping destination wherein a portion of sales tax is paid by non-residents. If the City proceeds with placing one of these options on the ballot, a parcel tax would require 2/3 majority and a sales tax would require a simple majority to pass under state law.
Second, the third poll will determine voter support of a tax measure if costs are shared. Beyond the proposed tax, the Cubberley Community Center project has opportunities for sharing costs 3 City Council, October 20, 2025: Agenda Item #1; SR#2503-4353, https://cityofpaloalto.primegov.com/viewer/preview?id=0&type=8&uid=71b7244b-dd63-4983-814f-fc85664f01cd of capital expenses with nonprofit partners and other revenue source(s) such as development impact fees, grants, and philanthropy. Voter support is nonetheless critical to purchase the property, which can then be leveraged to attract other contributors that will play a pivotal role in this project’s completion.
Capital Expense and Project Financing
Estimated Project Cost
A phased approach was applied when developing estimated project costs. The first phase, which prioritizes a Recreation Wellness Center consisting of new construction, Education and Enrichment, and a Performing Arts complex consisting of renovated buildings and some new construction, totals $392 million. Phase 1 estimates include an escalator based on a construction start date of April 2030. Future phases to realize a longer-term vision of the Master Plan could total an additional $220 million.
Project Capital Expense Financing – Estimates and Potential Source(s) Staff researched and analyzed potential funding sources for capital expenses with alignment to emerging poll results, potential nonprofit partner interests and development impact fee regulations. In either parcel or sales tax revenue scenario, the proceeds may finance land acquisition ($65.5 million) and minor repairs and renovations. Partner contributions would chart a path towards having the Recreation and Wellness and Performing Arts Centers financed and constructed sooner in conjunction with Phase 1. Community center and parks development impacts fees could also fund eligible costs. Palo Alto Municipal Code Section
16.585 describes these fees for use as “development and improvements" and "expansion and/or improvement" to community centers and “acquisition of land and improvements for neighborhood and district parks”, respectively. While a number of project elements identified in the master plan are likely allowable uses for development impact fee revenue, the City will need to comply with state laws on use of development impact fees and follow accounting and reporting requirements of these fees.
A parcel tax with $250 average annual cost per household (assumes single family household of 2,100 square feet) could support financing up to $102 million of capital expense. This includes parcel tax on multi-family units and commercial parcels. A sales tax increase of 0.5% could support financing up to $218 million of capital expense. Currently, the City may increase the local sales tax by 0.25% until it reaches the State-imposed 2% cap on locally imposed sales tax; statutory authorization from the State is needed to implement a 0.5% addition. Existing Countywide sales tax add-ons currently occupy 1.75% of the 2% cap; the City itself does not currently impose any additional sales tax increments. To keep a half-cent sales tax as a viable 5 PAMC Section 16.58; https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/paloalto/latest/paloalto_ca/0-0-0- 74896#JD_Chapter16.58
option in the November 2026 election, staff is working with Townsend Public Affairs (TPA) on legislation to increase the sales tax cap.
FISCAL/RESOURCE IMPACT
To fund critical community improvements, two potential funding options include:
A parcel tax averaging $250 annually per household, which could finance up to $102 million in improvements.
A sales tax increase of ½ cent, which could finance up to $218 million in improvements.
By securing significant support from nonprofits and other revenues, we can share costs and maximize available funding. This strategy ensures we are using public money wisely, delivering better results with shared funding and making sure tax dollars go further.
Project planning and administrative costs are managed and do not exceed the FY 2025 and FY2026 adopted budget appropriations.
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Community outreach and stakeholder engagement efforts for the project have been extensive and remain a central component of the overall process. Following the second and third community meetings, recordings of the presentations were uploaded to the project website to ensure broader access. Community members who could not attend in person were invited to share their input through an online public comment card, providing additional opportunities for feedback to the broader community.
Following the adoption of a new master plan, staff will initiate broader community outreach and engagement strategies aimed at generating excitement and awareness about the transformative potential of the future facility and campus. In the interim, staff are actively developing strategies and solutions to keep the community well-informed, engaged, and enthusiastic about the project's progress and long-term vision.
In addition to community meetings and updates to the City Council, Project updates and ways to stay involved and informed are shared through:
Project website ( www.paloalto.gov/improvecubberley),
Online comment card asking for priorities and input
Project updates sent via email newsletter to the project distribution list and updates shared through City communications channels including Nextdoor, digital newsletters, and videos,
Utility bill inserts,
Resident mailers, and
Tabling at key City events.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review is underway for the Cubberley Master Plan Project and will be brought to the City Council at a future date.
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A: Cubberley Project Background
Attachment B: Palo Alto Cubberley Vision Survey Analysis (Results of Poll #2) Attachment C: Project Workplan Updates
APPROVED BY:
Kristen O'Kane, Community Services Director