220‐7765
Palo Alto Voter Views of
Potential Ballot Measures
Key Findings of a Survey Conducted January 5‐12, 2026
2 Survey Methodology
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding) January 5‐12, 2026Dates
Dual‐mode Voter Survey Survey Type
Likely November 2026 Voters in Palo Alto Research Population 416Total Interviews
(Full Sample) ±4.9% at the 95% Confidence Level
(Half Sample) ±7.1% at the 95% Confidence LevelMargin of Sampling Error Contact Methods
Data Collection Modes
2013, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, April/May 2025 & November 2025Survey Tracking Tex t
Invitations
Telephone
Calls
Email
Invitations
Telephone
Interviews
Online
Interviews
3 Context
4 Q3.
4%
7%
6%
5%
5%
24%
25%
26%
31%
35%
18%
18%
20%
18%
19%
32%
20%
32%
36%
31%
21%
29%
15%
10%
11%
2026
2020
2018
2016
2013
Great Need Some Need A Little Need No Real Need Don't Know Great/Some
Need
29%
33%
32%
36%
40%
Fewer than three in ten see “a great need” or “some need” for additional funding for the City in principle.
Next, how would you rate the City of Palo Alto’s need for additional funding? Is there a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding? 5 Q4.
8%
23%
18%
29%
31%
40%
19%
16%
17%
32%
17%
17%
13%
12%
8%
2026
November 2025
April/May 2025
Great Need Some Need A Little Need No Real Need Don't Know Great/Some
Need
36%
55%
58%
Just over one‐third see at least “some need” for additional funds for updated facilities to provide recreation services.
In your personal opinion, do you think that Palo Alto has a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds for updated facilities to provide services including classes, camps, fitness programs, or drop‐in casual spaces? 6 Views of Potential
Ballot Measures
7 Q2 (Split A & B). Would you vote yes or no on this measure? Voters heard one of two potential ballot measures for Palo Alto.
Parcel Tax
City of Palo Alto Cubberley Community Center Repair/Safety/Update Measure. To purchase Cubberley Community Center land from Palo Alto Unified School District providing $65,500,000 for school improvements; repair aging Center to meet current safety, earthquake, accessibility standards; upgrade outdated/ deteriorating electrical systems/plumbing; and to acqui r e ,c o n s t r u c t ,r e p a i rf a c i l i t i e s ,s i t e s ,a n de q u i p m e n t ; shall City of Palo Alto’s measure levying 11¢ per square foot of improvements, providing approximately $7,300,000 annually until ended by voters, exempting low ‐income seniors, subject to published independent audit, all funds used locally, be adopted?
Sales Tax
City of Palo Alto Community Safety/Services Measure. To provide general city services such as repairing Cubberley Community Center for current safety, earthqua ke, accessibility standards; upgrading deteriorating electrical systems, wiring, plumbing; acquiring outdoor space/sites; maintaining streets, safe, clean downtown/ commercial cores; preparing for natural disasters/earthquakes; repairing deteriorating community spaces, libraries, shall City of Palo Alto’s measure enacting a 0.5% (1/2¢) s ales tax, providing approximately $15,600,000 annually until ended by voters, subject to published independent audit, all funds used locally, be adopted? 8 22%
14%
12%
3%
14%
23%
11%
Q2 (Split A & B). Would you vote yes or no on this measure? 17%
15%
15%
6%
16%
21%
9%
Parcel Tax
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
42%
Total
Yes
48%
Total
No
41%
Total
Yes
48%
Neither has support from a majority of voters.
Sales Tax
Requires 66.7% Requires 50% +1
9 Voter Priorities
10 36%
26%
22%
27%
28%
19%
26%
34%
37%
39%
32%
30%
38%
30%
24%
27%
34%
32%
25%
35%
28%
5%
9%
6%
7%
13%
7%
15%
Maintaining storm drains to prevent pollutants and
garbage from entering the Bay
Fixing potholes
Maintaining streets
Maintaining the City’s financial stability
Improving fire and 911 emergency response
Maintaining and repairing neighborhood streets
Preparing for natural disasters such as earthquakes,
flooding and sea‐level rise
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don't Know Extremely/Very Important
71%
64%
61%
59%
58%
58%
57%
Q6m‐p & r‐aa. Next, here is a list of ways in which funds generated by this measure could be spent. After each one, please indicate how important each item is to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample General‐Purpose Sales Tax Priorities
Voters’ top priorities for a general‐purpose measure include storm drains, potholes, street maintenance and financial stability. 11 20%
29%
15%
28%
20%
14%
19%
36%
22%
33%
18%
23%
28%
21%
38%
26%
33%
20%
30%
44%
40%
7%
18%
17%
31%
20%
14%
20%
5%
6%
Maintaining a safe, clean downtown and
commercial cores
Improving police response to violent crime
Providing general city services
Funding affordable housing
Improving police response
Repairing deteriorating libraries
Addressing traffic congestion
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don't Know Extremely/Very Important
55%
51%
48%
46%
43%
41%
40%
Q6m‐p & r‐aa. Next, here is a list of ways in which funds generated by this measure could be spent. After each one, please indicate how important each item is to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample General‐Purpose Sales Tax Priorities
Smaller shares value a safe, clean downtown
or general city services as intensely.
12 29%
15%
26%
22%
28%
17%
16%
35%
50%
34%
37%
30%
30%
29%
27%
22%
24%
27%
20%
31%
42%
8%
8%
13%
12%
19%
19%
10%
5%
Preserving trees and outdoor space
Upgrading outdated and deteriorating
electrical wiring and plumbing
Upgrading buildings to meet current earthquake
safety, plumbing, and electrical standards
Providing safe spaces for children and teens
after school and in the summer
Exempting low‐income seniors
Providing space for gathering and community building
^Repairing deteriorating community spaces
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don't Know Extremely/Very Important
65%
65%
60%
60%
58%
48%
45%
Q6a‐l, q & bb. Next, here is a list of ways in which funds generated by this measure could be spent. After each one, please indicate how important each item is to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample Cubberley‐Focused Priorities
When it comes to Cubberley‐focused priorities, two‐thirds value preserving trees and upgrading deteriorating wiring and plumbing. 13 12%
14%
10%
8%
6%
9%
8%
31%
28%
28%
27%
28%
21%
16%
39%
32%
28%
38%
25%
34%
24%
15%
20%
28%
21%
29%
28%
43%
7%
6%
6%
12%
8%
9%
Improving accessibility to city buildings for
people with disabilities
Bringing in funding from partner
organizations to support Cubberley
Improving a downtown community center
with a dedicated space for teens
Acquiring, constructing and repairing
facilities, sites and equipment
^Renovating the existing 70‐year‐old
Cubberley Community Center
Improving the Rinconada Pool
Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important Don't Know Extremely/Very Important
43%
42%
38%
35%
34%
30%
25%
Q6a‐l, q & bb. Next, here is a list of ways in which funds generated by this measure could be spent. After each one, please indicate how important each item is to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample Cubberley‐Focused Priorities
Fewer value improving the Rinconada Pool
or renovating the Cubberley Center.
Purchasing seven acres at the
Cubberley site with proceeds benefitting
the Palo Alto Unified School District
14 Messaging and Movement
15 The parcel tax never exceeds the two‐thirds vote threshold.
Q2, Q8 & Q10. (Split A) Would you vote yes or no on this measure? Parcel Tax
Total
No
Total
Yes
42%48%
42%49%
46%45%
17%
18%
15%
15%
17%
14%
15%
14%
15%
9%
9%
9%
6% 16%
15%
15%
21%
26%
27%
Initial Vote
After Positive Messages
After Negative Messages
Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes Undecided Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No
66.7%
16 Segmenting the Electorate by
Consistency of Support –P a r c e l Tax
Consistent Yes: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote “yes” on the measure
Consistent No: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote “no” on the measure
Swing: Voters who do not fall into any of the other
categories – remaining consistently undecided or
switching positions
The following slide shows demographic groups that
disproportionately fall into one category or the other .
Consistent
Yes
39%
Swing
24%
Consistent
No
37%
17 The sales tax falls short of majority
support even after positive messaging.
Q2, Q8 & Q10. (Split B) Would you vote yes or no on this measure? Sales Tax
Total
No
Total
Yes
41%48%
43%47%
44%41%
22%
21%
20%
14%
11%
13%
12%
15%
9%
11%
10%
15%
5%
5%
14%
10%
11%
23%
27%
29%
Initial Vote
After Positive Messages
After Negative Messages
Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes Undecided Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No
50.1%
18 Segmenting the Electorate by
Consistency of Support –S a l e s Tax
Consistent Yes: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote “yes” on the measure
Consistent No: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote “no” on the measure
Swing: Voters who do not fall into any of the other
categories – remaining consistently undecided or
switching positions
The following slide shows demographic groups that
disproportionately fall into one category or the other .
Consistent
Yes
39%
Swing
26%
Consistent
No
35%
19 Ranked by Very Convincing
^(STANDARDS) Most Cubberley Community Center buildings are more than 70 years old. They were built well before modern internet, and do not meet current disabled access and earthquake safety standards.
Palo Alto residents deserve a community center that is modern, safe, and accessible to the entire community. 26%
(ACCOUNTABILITY) This measure will have strict accountability provisions, including a published independent audit, to ensure that funds are spent efficiently, effectively, and as promised.20% ^(BENEFITS FOR PAUSD) This measure is a win ‐win for our community. It provides $65.5 million in much‐needed funding for our local schools, which they can use to upgrade technology or make repairs to classrooms.20%
*(STREETS) Funding from this measure will ensure the City can keep up on street and sidewalk repairs, improve traffic flow especially near trains, fix potholes, and provide safe routes to school for children.19% Q7. First, please consider the following statements from people who may support this measure. For each one, please indicate whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes. ^Split A –P a r c e l Tax; *Split B –S a l e s Tax Positive Messaging Tested (Both Measures)
20 Ranked by Very Convincing
*(ACT LOCAL) We must act locally to protect Palo Alto’s quality of life. This measure will maintain fire and police protection, emergency response, streets, parks, and youth and senior services, and address traffic with locally controlled funding to benefit Palo Alto residents. 18%
^(LOCAL CONTROL) This proposal would purchase land at the Cubberley site that the City has been leasing for decades. Owning the land would mean city and community control over how we use the space for arts, culture, recreation, and more into the future.
17%
*(DISASTER) Our community is uniquely vulnerable to natural disasters like earthquake, flooding, sea ‐level rise and fire. This measure will provide locally controlled funding for natural disaster preparation and emergency response.
14%
*(DOWTOWN SAFETY) This measure will provide locally controlled funding to help keep our downtown and commercial cores safe and clean, which will keep small businesses local and shoppers and residents safe.12% ^(PARTNER FUNDING) This measure will bring together funding from nonprofits, philanthropists, and partner organizations as well as Palo Alto taxpayers. This is a unique chance to bring the community together to create a Cubberley Center our community can be proud of. 10%
Q7. First, please consider the following statements from people who may support this measure. For each one, please indicate whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes. ^Split A –P a r c e l Tax; *Split B –S a l e s Tax Positive Messaging Tested (Both Measures), Continued
21 Q9. Next, please consider the following statements from people who may oppose this measure. For each one, please indicate whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no. ^Split A –P a r c e l Tax; *Split B –S a l e s Tax Ranked by Very Convincing
(WASTE) The City should cut waste and mismanagement of funds before asking to raise our taxes again.39% *(FOREVER) This measure is essentially a “forever tax” which would be in effect well past when the projects listed would be done – we shouldn’t raise taxes on our children and grandchildren.38% ^(PRIORITIES/PARCEL) Our community has higher priorities right now than a brand ‐new community center, like addressing public safety, the cost of living, and road repairs.35% (COST OF LIVING) At a time when the cost of living is skyrocketing, the last thing we should do is raise our taxes even more with a measure like this.32%
*(PRIORITIES/SALES) This measure is a sneaky attempt to fund a brand ‐new Community Center by claiming it will be used for roads and safety.21%
Negative Messaging Tested (Both Measures)
22 Conclusions
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION
23 Next Steps/Discussion Items
• While neither mechanism is viable for the 2026 cycle, as always the City may opt to lay the groundwork for a 2028 effort at the right time. • A longer runway would allow the city to continue to obtain resident feedback on a more relaxed timeline.
A longer runway may provide time to organize a measure in greater concert with the School District.
The expanded 2028 electorate may bring a more diverse group of perspectives. A stronger focus on basic fixes, safety updates, and preserving trees/outdoor space is advised.
Our other cities are actively pursuing philanthropy, grant funding and matching fund opportunities, which could also be helpful to an ongoing Cubberley strategy for incremental improvements.
Curt Below
[email protected]
Miranda Everitt
[email protected]