Attachment B - Central Library Survey Results
OPINION
RESEARCH
RESEARCH & STRATEGY
TO City of Pasadena
FROM Richard Bernard and Adam Sonenshein
RE: City of Pasadena Central Library Bond Measure Baseline Survey Results DATE June 1, 2024
A recent survey1 conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) shows that a $195 million bond measure dedicated to earthquake retrofitting and repairinR the Pasadena Central Library to allow the Central Library to be re-opened has a strong ODDOrtunitv to succeed if put on the ballot this November.
INITIAL VOTE
> Nearly 7 in 10 (69%) voters support a proposed $195 million bond measure in the first vote—before respondents heard any information about the bond measure other than the 75-word ballot title and summary language.
> Support at $195 million is slightly stronger than support for a proposed measure with a lower bond amount of $153 million. While half the sample was asked about a $195 million bond amount with a levy of $30 per $100,000 of the assessed value, the other half the sample was asked about a $153 million bond with a levy of $24 per $100,000 of the assessed value. Sixty-nine percent said they would vote yes on a $195 million bond measure, however, a lower 63 percent said they would do so at $153 million. > Moreover, intensity of support—the proportion who say they would "definitely" vote Yes—is higher at $195 million than $153 million: 44 percent to 36 percent, respectively (Figure 1 illustrates the results). it should also be noted that, while overall support at $195 million is little changed from the October 2023 survey2, the proportion who would "definitely" vote Yes increased from 39 percent in October 2023 to 44 percent currently—showing the educational outreach efforts may be helping solidify support for the $195 million bond.
1 From April 9-18, 2024, FM3 conducted a survey among 658 City of Pasadena likely November 2024 voters. The survey was offered online and by telephone. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error for questions asked of half the sample is +/-5.7 percentage points. Not all results will sum to 100% due to rounding.
2 From October 19-26, 2023, FM3 conducted a survey among 734 City of Pasadena likely November 2024 voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points on the full sample and +/- 5.2 percentage points for questions asked of half the sample.
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FM3|
RESEARCH
FIGURE 1: MAY 2024 INITIAL VOTE ON A PROPOSED PASADENA CENTRAL LIBRARY EARTHQUAKE RETROFIT, REPAIR, UPGRADE MEASURE AT $153 MILLION AND $195 MILLION
(Margin of Error +/- 5.7 percentage points)
$153M Bond$195M Bond
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Total
36%
17% 53%Yes
63%
9%5%
Total
Yes
69%
Undecided, lean no 3%
Probably no • 9%
Definitely no ^^B 21%
Total
No
32%
1%
7%
17%
Total
No
26%
Undecided S 5%5%
POST-EDUCATION VOTE
> Educational statements help to buoy support for a proposed Central Library $195 million bond measure—with a 10-point increase in the proportion saying they would "definitely" vote Yes. After hearing educational statements, support reaches 71 percent at $195 million and 70 percent at $153 million. However, the $195 million bond receives more intensity of support, with 54 percent saying they would "definitely" vote in favor of it (up 10 points from the initial vote) compared to 44 percent giving this response who heard the identical language but with a proposed $153 million bond amount (see Figure 2). These findings go further to show that the $195 million bond measure has the opportunity to pass with a strong educational effort.
FIGURE 2: MAY 2024 INITIAL AND POST-EDUCATION VOTES ON A PROPOSED PASADENA CENTRAL LIBRARY EARTHQUAKE RETROFIT, REPAIR, UPGRADE MEASURE AT $153 MILLION AND $195 MILLION (Margin of Error +/- 5. 7 percentage points)
Definitely yes I
Probably yes I
Undecided,
lean yes
Undecided,
lean no
$153M Bond
Vote After
Initial VoteEducation
36%44% Total
YesYes 17% 53%20% 64%
63%
7%
Total
70%
9%
3%
Probably no ^ 9%
Definitely no ^B 21%
Undecided | 5%
Total
No
32%
3%
6%
15%
Total
No
24%
16%
$195M Bond
Vote After
Education Initial Vote
44%54% Total
YesYes 21% 65%13%67%
69%
5%
Total
71%
1%
I 7%
I 17%
5%
Total
No
26%
4%
1%
I 7%
I 17%
4%
Total
No
25%
IFM3)
RESEARCH
> The results may suggest that the community education that has taken place between the October 2023 survey and current survey has bolstered support for providing the full level of funding needed to re- open the library.
In the October 2023 survey, overall support for a proposed $195 million bond after educational statements was slightly lower than for a proposed $153 million bond, while the current study shows equal—if not slightly greater—support at $195 million (74% compared to 71%).
Moreover, the proportion who said they will "definitely" vote yes on a proposed $195 million bond after hearing educational statements is up from 47 percent in 2023 to 54 percent currently—further highlighting that support for a proposed $195 million bond measure is solidifying. Post-education, intensity of support at $153 million, however, is down compared to 2023, from 55 percent who would "definitely" vote yes in 2023 to 44 percent currently.
IMPRESSIONS OF THE CENTRAL LIBRARY
> Support for the bond measure reflects the strong perception of need for more funding for the Central Library, with 68 percent saying there is a need for additional funding to earthquake retrofit the Central Library so it can safely be re-opened to the public. Just one in 10 voters believe there is no real need. This question was asked before respondents heard about a proposed ballot measure or any information about the Central Library.
> The high level of support for this bond measure also reflects the value voters place on the Pasadena Central Library. FMS'sJune 2021 survey3 explored these sentiments:
•Nine out of 10 respondents (90%) agree that Pasadena public libraries are important to the Pasadena community. This view is far-reaching, with high proportions of residents regardless of gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education agreeing with this view.
Nearly 9 in 10 or more respondents agree with each of the following statements about the library's value to the community:
o The Pasadena Central Library is an important community asset and needs to be protected (95% agree)
o The Pasadena Central Library is an important part of the history of the City (93% agree) o The Pasadena Central Library is an important architectural building in the City (92% agree) o The Pasadena Central Library is an important community asset, and we need to invest in protecting it (91% agree)
3 From June 6-17, 2021, FM3 conducted a survey among 666 likely November 2022 voters in the City of Pasadena. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points on the full sample and +/- 6.2 percentage points for questions asked of half the sample.
Page3
RESEARCH
o Pasadena's libraries play a critical role in educating our community's children and youth (88% agree)
o The Pasadena Central Library is an important gathering place for our community (85% agree) Large proportions also agree that Pasadena students rely on our city's libraries to get books and other educational resources not offered at Pasadena Public Schools (74% agree) and Pasadena Library provides services and programs for people like me (74% agree).
The results m the^yrrent study, as well as from revjewine current results in the context of past research, show that a proposed $195 million bond measure has the opportunity to succeed with a strong and sustained education effort that does not face organized opposition.