Pasadena Water and Power
FINALIZATION OF AN OPTIMIZED STRATEGIC PLAN ESTABLISHING A
ROADMAP TO MEET THE GOALS SET FORTH BY CITY COUNCIL-
ADOPTED RESOLUTION 9977
City Council
May 5, 2025
Ite m 13
Pasadena Water and Power
Background
2 • On March 25, 2024, City Council approved entering a contract with Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (“E3”) for consulting services related to the development of an Optimized Strategic Plan (“OSP”) for achieving the carbon-free goals of Resolution 9977
> At the Council’s direction and under contract to the City Manager, E3 developed a robust technical analysis that provides foundational data and evaluation that lays out the key steps and future decision points that will best position PWP to achieve the goal to source all electricity from carbon free sources by the end of 2030 while maintaining reliability and limiting cost impacts to customers
> A key theme in the development of the OSP was coordination and collaboration between PWP, stakeholder groups, and the Pasadena community
To date, E3 discussed the development and analysis of the multiple OSP portfolios, including:
» (10) Technical Advisory Panel meetings
» (4) Updates to the Municipal Services Committee (“MSC”) » (3) Updates to the Environmental Advisory Panel (“EAC”) » (1) Community meeting
Pasadena Water and Power
MSC Recommendation
3 • On April 8, 2025, the MSC provided staff guidance on the OSP energy resource portfolios, which present a range of options to achieve the goals of Resolution 9977
> MSC recommended that staff pursue a final OSP report that includes the 4 portfolios that:
Preserve the Glenarm Power Plant as a backup/limited resource Accelerate the development of local solar resources
» Potential target of 100 MW
Pasadena Water and Power
Staff Recommendation
4 • Adopt the MSC recommendation;
• Direct PWP to complete an Optimized Strategic Plan ("OSP") final report, establishing a roadmap to meet the goals set forth by City Council-adopted Resolution 9977; • Direct staff to include the following five foundational components in the final OSP report, each of which has been demonstrated to be an important part of a portfolio that balances Resolution 9977 goals of carbon-free energy, reliability, affordability, and equity:
> Procurement of external renewables and storage resources, with a focus on resource diversity; > Accelerated development of local solar and storage resources within the PWP service territory; > Development of demand-side programs and rate structures to encourage load flexibility, managed electric vehicle charging, and other cost-effective demand response; > Preservation of the Glenarm Power Plant as a backup/limited resource for reliability; and > Pursuit of a balanced position in the CAISO wholesale energy market, allowing for sales and purchases to manage imbalances in supply and demand;
• Direct staff to continually evaluate and implement approaches to achieve the City's goals set forth in Resolution 9977 by the end 2030 and to utilize the 2028 Waypoint ("Waypoint") to develop a revised Integrated Resource Plan that is consistent with state requirements and Resolution 9977 M ay 5, 2025
Development of an Optimized
Strategic Plan for Pasadena W ater
and Power
Nick Schlag, Partner
Mike Sontag, Dire ctor
Nathan L ee, Sr . M anaging Consultant
M ichaela L evine, Sr . M anaging Consultant
Update to City Council
6 B ackground and motivation for the OSP
K ey fi ndi ngs and case studi es from the Opti mi zed Strategi c Plan techni cal analy ses Outli ne for the Opti mi zed Strategi c Plan
Age n d a – M ay 5, 2025, Update to City Council
Purpose of T oday’ s Update: Share results f rom OSP Case Study analy si s and request approv al of the Plan outli ne to implement goals of Resolution 9977.
7 T he Opti mi zed Strategi c Plan i s…
… a roadmap that lays out the key steps and future decision points that will best posi ti on Pasadena to achi ev e i ts goal to source all electri ci ty f rom carbon -f ree s ourc e s by the e nd of 2030 while m a inta ining re lia bility a nd lim iting c os t im pa c ts to customers
T he Opti mi zed Strategi c Plan wi ll…
… consider how new generation resources, investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure, and customer programs can facilitate transition to Pasadena’ s carbon -f ree g oal
De fining “ Optimize d Strate gic Plan”
8 Future projects currently under
dev elopment
B onanza solar ( 105 M W) and
storage (55 MW)
Grace solar ( 50 M W)
Gey sers geothermal ( 25 M W)
Coso geothermal (10 M W)
Ca lWind (20 MW)
Glenarm battery storage ( 25
MW)
Progress to Date T owards Resolution 9977 Goals
2031 clean energy metri cs based on resources currently owned or contracted to PWP ( i ncludes proj ects currently under dev elopment) M etri c 1:
86%
of PWP’ s annual retail sales is generated annually by the carbon- free resources in PWP’ s portfolio (SB100)
M etri c 2:
78%
of annual energy produced by resources owned by or contracted to PWP is from carbon- free sources
M etri c 3:
83%
of PWP’ s hourly energy needs are matched by carbon- free generati on resources i n each hour across the y ear
A s publi shed on the PW P Clean E nergy T rack er ( does not i nclude resources desi gnated as “i n progress”) 9 B alance of Carbon -F ree E nergy R esources based on Currently E xecuted Contracts
Hourly Carbon -F ree E lectricity v s. Hourly L oad
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%
2031 Carbon -F ree E lectri ci ty Supply ( E x ecuted Contracts Only) A ddi ti ons: Coso Geothermal ( 10 M W ) , Gey sers Geothermal ( 25 M W ) , B onanza Solar/B E SS ( 105 M W /55M W ) , Glenarm B E SS ( 25 M W ) , Ca lwind (20 MW), Gra c e Sola r (50 MW) (Does not include in-progress resources) 2025 Carbon -F ree E lectri ci ty Supply
Ja n 1 Day of Y ear De c 31
12am
12pm
12am
12am
12pm
12am
Ja n 1 Day of Y ear De c 31
A nnual av erage ( “M etri c 3”) : 25%
A nnual av erage ( “M etri c 3”) : 81%
10 Phase 1
Preparatory Studi es
I denti f y and characteri ze all
potential resource options
Phase 2
Portfolio Development
U se detai led power sy stem
modeling to construct multiple
portf oli os that meet clean
energy goals and mai ntai n
re lia bility
Phase 3
I mpact A ssessment
Calculate cost metri cs;
ide ntify fe a s ibility c onc e rns ,
dependenci es, and ri sks of
each portf oli o
Re s ult
Optim ize d Stra te gic
Plan
I nformed by technical
analy si s, dev elop an acti on
plan.L ocal Solar and
Storage
New & Emerging
Te c h
D emand R esponse
+ Fle x Lo a d s
T r ansmi ssi on
Options
Gle narm
Conversion/
R eplacement
Lo n g-Te r m
Capacity
Exp a ns ion
Production Cost
Mo d e lin g
Dis tribution
Sys te m Analys is
Cost Impacts
Optimized Strategic Plan Scope of Work Overview
A ction Plan/
Fina l Re p ort
T echnical A nalysis Synthesis
11 R esource T ype Lo c a l E xternal Additiona l Cons ide rations Solar
R oughly 500 M W of technical potential within the city ; potential for utility-scal e sol ar outsi de the ci ty practi cal l y unconstrained; production limited to day time and coincides with common periods of ov ersupply Win d
L imited remaining potential for dev elopment of new wind resources within California; high quality wind in other W estern states prov ides an opportunity for resource div ersity but requires transmission for deliv ery G eothermal
“Cl ean f i rm” source of stabl e carbon-f ree el ectri ci ty ; potenti al f or new resource dev el opment i s l i mi ted, hi g hl y s ite-speci f i c and ty pi cal l y requi res l ong l ead ti mes; f ew new g eothermal proj ects dev el oped i n past decade B attery Stor ag e ( 4-hr)
Compl ementary to v ari abl e renewabl e resources that al l ows storag e of surpl us cl ean energ y to di scharg e duri ng peri ods of def i ci t; prov en technol og y wi del y scal ed i n Cal i f orni a i n past decade D emand R esponse A wide range of options to encourage customers to shift loads towards periods of clean energy surplus; ef f ecti v e depl oy ment of demand response and manag ed el ectri c v ehi cl e charg i ng requi res compl eti on of A dv anced M eteri ng I nf rastructure ( A M I ) i nstal l ati on; rate desi g n ( e.g . ti me-of-use pri ci ng ) and i ncenti v e programs are both options to deploy this resource
M anag ed E V Char g i ng
Mid Dura tion Stora ge (10-hr) A significant number of innov ativ e long-duration storage technologies are currently in R & D stages of dev el opment; most L D E S technol og i es hav e not y et reached f ul l mark et readi ness, but many si g ns sug g est that this lev el of technological maturity will not occur until mid 2030s; long -durati on storag e resources are ty pi cal l y l ess dense than battery storag e and hav e l arg er l and requi rements L ong Duration Storage ( 100-hr)
Hyd ro ge n-Fire d Ga s T urb ine
Operati ons usi ng 100% H 2 hav e not y et been prov en i n real worl d setti ng , but OE M s are targ eti ng thi s capabi l i ty by 2030; would require network to produce, store, & transport H2 Hydroge n Fue l Ce ll
R esource Options A vailable to M eet R esolution 9977 Goals M ultiple options for carbon -f ree g ener ati on and stor ag e resources may play a role i n the ci ty ’ s long -term plans and each have their own considerations or limitations.
H2
H2
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T hree k ey observ ati ons:
1. Closing the gap between PWP’ s
current portfolio and a 100% hourly
matching goal requires additions of
renewables and stor ag e at a scale
of hundreds of megawatts
2. A dditions of local resources and
ex ternal resources each adv ance
PWP towards the Resolution 9977,
and there is no minimum threshold
of need f or any speci f i c ty pe of
res ource
3. All re s ourc e s e xhib it d im inis hing
marginal returns in their impact on
Me tric 3, d is p la ying a s ym p totic
behavior as the portfolio
approaches 100% - foreshadowing
the importance of re s ourc e d ive rs ity
Closing the G ap: How Scaling I ndividual R esources I mpacts Clean E nergy M etri cs
E x i sti ng resources & ex ecuted contracts
I mpact of A ddi ti onal L ocal R esources
Hourly M atching Percentage ( M etric 3)
L ocal s olar
(p a ire d with
storage 1:1)
L ocal s olar
(p a ire d with
storage 2:1)
L ocal s olar
(no storage)
Utility -s cale s olar
( pai red w i th storag e 1:1)
Wind
G eothermal
I mpact of A ddi ti onal E x ternal R esources
I ncremental Capacity A dditions to B ase Portfolio ( M W) 13 Additiona l va riations explore d to provide
PWP and City Council with
robust analy ses to inform the Optimized
Strategic Plan:
“A ccelerated L ocal R esources”: What
are the comparati v e i mpacts of
portfolios that accelerate the
deployment of local solar & storage
while maintaining Glenarm Power Plant
as a backup f or reli abi li ty?
Tim ing: How does each strategy change
if transition to carbon -free occurs less
rapidly?
• Opportunity to synchronize transition with
transmission expansion
• M ore plausible timelines for technology
readiness for emerging technologies
M arkets: How does short -term market
transaction flexibility impact these
case studi es, i f PWP's owned and
contracted generation is carbon- free ?
T hree Core Case Studi es to A chi ev e R esoluti on 9977 G oals Common methods & assumptions across all three case studies:
• Natur al gas combusti on at Glenarm ceases by end of 2030 ( ei ther conv erted to H 2 or replaced) • No reli ance on wholesale market purchases ( “24x 7 carbon f ree electri ci ty ”) • Quanti ti es of each resource opti mi zed i n each case study to meet reli abi li ty needs and carbon -f ree obj ecti v es Case Studi es New R esource Opti ons to M eet 2030 G oals M ature
T echnologies Only
Solar PV
(Dis tribute d
& Utility)
La n d-
Ba s e d
Wind
Geother -
mal
Lo a d
Flexibility
B attery
Storage
M ature
T echnologies +
Green Hy drogen
Solar PV
(Dis tribute d
& Utility)
La n d-
Ba s e d
Wind
Geother -
mal
Lo a d
Flexibility
B attery
Storage
Green
Hydroge n
(H2) Conversion
at Glenarm
M ature
T echnologies +
Lo n g-Duration
Storage
Solar PV
(Dis tribute d
& Utility)
La n d-
Ba s e d
Wind
Geother -
mal
Lo a d
Flexibility
B attery
Storage
Lo n g-Duration
En e rgy St ora ge
14 Mathe m atica l optim ization proble m :
M inimize NPV Investment Costs + Operating Costs
Subject to constraints:
M i ni mum requi rements for local resources
R esource adequacy requi rements
Carbon -free energy targets
Plant -s pe cific ope rationa l lim itations
• T hermal: max imum power , ramp rate
• Storage: max i mum power , state of charge
• Renewables: hourly availability
Hourly power balance
Using L ong T erm Capacity E xpansion to Develop Portfolios 2025 2031 2050
I nv estment deci si ons:
New i nv estments selected i n each y ear across 25 -year horizon Ja n Fe b Ma r Ap r Ma y Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov De c
Ope rationa l de cis ions :
Hourly oper ati ons si mulated across 48 representati v e day s f or each y ear 9 Ï ╗ ¦ →τﻷﻟ
ě ¾ τ ¾ ╗Ï ╤ň→ τ
ﻟ
× ¾σ Ï τ ×
15 Pasadena System R epresentation in Capacity E xpansion M odel 280 MW limit
(expanding to 336
MW by 2035)
T M Goodrich
Re ce iving Station
Exte rna l
C AIS O
Sys te m
Owned & Contracted Resources
Palo V erde Nuclear 10 MW
Intermountain Power Plant 1 108 MW
M agnolia Power Plant 14 MW
Chiquita Canyon L andfill Gas 1 7 MW
Puente Hills L andfill Gas 1 13 MW
Hoove r Hydro 15 MW
A zusa Hydro 15 MW
Calwind 2 20 MW
Coso Geothermal 2 10 MW
Gey sers Geothermal 2 25 MW
A ntelope B ig Sky Ranch Solar 7 MW
Big Sky Summer Solar 7 MW
Columbia 2 Solar 3 MW
Kingbird Solar 20 MW
B onanza Solar 2 105 MW
Grace Solar 2 50 MW
B onanza B ESS2 55 MW
Candidate Resource Options
Utility-Scale Solar PV
Wind (California)
Wind ( Out of State)
Geothermal
Battery Storage (4hr)
M id Duration Storage (10hr)
3 L ong Duration Storage (100hr) 3
Wholesale E nergy M arket
CA ISO Wholesale Market (SP15)
Utility Loa d
2030 Peak Demand 5 361 MW
Owned & Contracted R esources
Glenarm Power Plant 198 MW
Windsor Reservoir Solar 0.7 MW
Glenarm B E SS2 25 MW
Existing Customer -Owned R esources
Customer -Owned Solar 28 MW
Customer Owned Storage 1 MW
Candi date R esource Opti ons
L ocal Solar PV
B attery Storage ( 4hr)
M id Duration Storage ( 10hr)
3 L ong Duration Storage ( 100hr) 3
Demand Response
Loa d Fle xibility
Green Hydrogen
3 Lo c a l
PWP
Sys te m
Notes:
1. R esources wi th establi shed plans for reti rement or contract expirations prior to end of 2030
2. Resources not yet online today
3. Candi date resources i ncluded i n a select set of portfoli os
4. Based on 2023 IRP forecast.
5. B ased on 2023 I R P forecast wi th blended E V chargi ng dev eloped by E 3. 16 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
R esources
remov ed
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm as B ackup)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of A nnual Needs
( Glenarm R educed Operati ons)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO. * M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources 17 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
R esources
added
R esources
remov ed
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167%
100%
100%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO. * M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources Without Glenarm, large
quanti ti es of new local solar
and storage resources are
needed to ensure local
re lia bility during tra ns mis s ion
contingency conditions
18 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
R esources
added
R esources
remov ed
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm as B ackup)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of A nnual Needs
( Glenarm R educed Operati ons)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO. * M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources Ava ila bility of e me rging long-
duration storage technologies
would reduce need for local
resources, but scale of new
a dditions re quire d within PWP
serv i ce area remai ns large
19 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
R esources
added
R esources
remov ed
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm as B ackup)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of A nnual Needs
( Glenarm R educed Operati ons)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO. * M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources Conv ersi on of Glenarm to green
hydrogen results in limited need
f or addi ti onal resources, serv i ng
as a “clean f i rm” resource that
can be dispatched when
needed to f i ll gaps i n the
portfolio, contribute to resource
adequacy needs, and support
local reliability
20 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
R esources
added
R esources
remov ed
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100%
of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm B ackup, No M arket Purchases)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet
100% of A nnual Needs
( Glenarm R educed Operati ons)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO.
W i th Glenarm as a
backup resource for
re lia bility, multiple dive rs e
portfolios combining local
and ex ternal carbon -f ree
resources can supply
100% of energy needs on
an hourly basis under
normal operating
conditions
(T wo variations in portfolios
correspond to di f f erent lev els
of local resource dev elopment
– both include sufficient local
carbon -f ree resources to meet
loads above Goodrich import
lim its )
* M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources 21 L ocal
L ocal L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternalL ocal
L ocal
0 200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
I nstalled Capacity (M W)
M anaged E V
DR
Storage (100hr)
Stora ge (10hr)
Storage (4hr)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
2031 I nstalled Capacity A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100%
of A nnual Needs
( L i mi ted Glenarm Ops & M arket Purchases)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO.
R esources
added
R esources
remov ed
* M etri cs reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources Portfolios Designed to M eet 100%
of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm B ackup, No M arket Purchases)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Carbon -free portfolios sized
to meet annual energy needs
lev erage wholesale
purchases and sales f or
balanci ng and requi re f ewer
new resource addi ti ons
22 L ocal
L ocal
L ocal
L ocal
L ocal L ocal
L ocal L ocalE x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
E x ternal E x ternal
A nnual L oad
0 500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Exis ting Portfolio Solar + Storage
Glenarm
R eplacement
L D E S Glenarm
R eplacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conve rs ion
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources (Glenarm
B ackup)
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
(Glenarm B ackup)
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources
A nnual M atching
A ccelerated L ocal
R esources Plus
A nnual Generation (GWh)
Curtailment
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroge n
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
2031 A nnual Generation M ix A cross Case Studies
Current 2031
R esource
Portfolio*
Me t ric 1 86%
Me t ric 2 78%
Me t ric 3 83%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly
Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO.
Generation
abov e load
either sold or
curtai led
* M etri cs currently reported on the PW P clean energy tracker for Owned/Contracted resources Portfolios Designed to M eet 100%
of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm B ackup, No M arket Purchases)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100%
of A nnual Needs
( L i mi ted Glenarm Ops & M arket Purchases)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
23 0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Hourly Carbon -F ree R esource A v ai labi li ty ( % of Hourly L oad)
Hours in Y ear (Ranked Highest to L owest)
100% Hourly Matching:
Supplying load with 100% carbon- free energy during the most constrained conditions across the year requires a
portfolio that produces a large surplus of carbon- free energy outside of those constrained periods
Surplus carbon -f ree gener ati on must be curtai led or sold to the market, maki ng PW P heav i ly dependent on of f-sy stem sales M any hours in which PWP would have a surplus of generation could occur when pri ces i n the market are low or negati v e ( e.g. daytime hours in spring)
100% A nnual M atching:
A portfolio that is sized to supply 100% of annual energy needs with carbon- free energy results i n a “balanced” position in wholesale markets:
Carbon -f ree resources meet or ex ceed hourly demand across most of the y ear; i n aggregate, surpluses match or ex ceed def i ci ts L ower reli ance on rev enues f rom of f-sy stem sales; i ncreased opportuni ti es to max i mi ze v alue of f lex i ble stor age resources 2031 Duration Curves of Carbon -F ree E nergy R esources De ficit of ca rbon -
free resources
Surplus of
carbon -free
resources
Me t ric 1
100% Hourly Matching 170%
100% A nnual M atching 108%
B oth portf oli os i nclude accelerated local resources & Glenarm as backup
24 T o compare costs to meet Resolution 9977 goals
across case studies on a consistent basis, total
system cost includes:
• Al l-in costs of all new resources ( represented as a PPA - style annualized cost)
– Costs for naturally occurring adoption of residential and commerci al customer solar are not i ncluded
• Changes to fuel and operations & maintenance costs for existing resources resulting from plant retirements and/or dispatch
• Changes in the CA I SO T ransmission A ccess Charge ( T A C) due to di f f erences i n i nternal generati on
• Changes i n wholesale market cost and/or rev enues due to di f f erences i n purchases and sales i n CA I SO wholesale mark et
I ncremental total system costs compared to a least - cost reference case 2031, desi gned to meet 100% of
annual energy needs with carbon- free resources
M easuring Incremental T otal System Costs
L ocation New R esource T ype
2031 PPA-
Style Cost
($/ MWh )
Lo c a l R esi denti al Solar $160
$140-180
Non -R esi denti al Solar $110
$100-122
E xternal Utility-Scale Solar $40
$30-50
In-State Wind $60
$50-80
Out -of-State Wind
(includes transmission)
$65
$60-75
Geothermal $120
$100-140
PPA-sty le costs are ex pressed i n nomi nal terms and are calculated to recov er capi tal i nv estment, return on i nv estment, and operati ng costs ov er a 20 -y ear period. Ranges shown reflect financing & technology uncertainty . 25 +$80
+$95
+$20
+$45 +$45
+$5 +$10
+$140 +$155
+$55
+$85 +$85
+$15
+$25
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Solar + Storage Glenarm
Replacement
LDES Glenarm
Replacement
Glenarm Hydrogen
Conversion
Accelerated Local
Resources (Glenarm
Backup)
Accelerated Local
Resources Plus
(Glenarm Backup)
Annual Matching
Accelerated Local
Resources
Annual Matching
Accelerated Local
Resources Plus
2031 Cost Comparison A cross Case Studies
2031 R elati v e I ncremental T otal Sy stem Cost
( $ mi lli on per y ear)
Me t ric 1
Me t ric 2
Me t ric 3
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
167% 183% 127%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of
Hourly Needs
( Glenarm B ackup, No M arket Purchases)
170% 171%
100% 100%
100% 100%
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of
A nnual Needs
( L i mi ted Glenarm Ops & M arket Purchases)
108% 108%
96% 96%
94% 95%
Note: I ncremental cost measured relati v e to a “least -cost” portfoli o desi gned to meet 100% of Pasadena’ s annual energy needs wi t h carbon- free resources Note: PWP’ s current power fund
operati ng ex penses are ~$250
million/ye a r
26 Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of Hourly Needs
( Glenarm R eplaced/Conv erted, No M arket Purchases)
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of
Hourly Needs
( Glenarm B ackup, No M arket Purchases)
Portfolios Designed to M eet 100% of
A nnual Needs
( L i mi ted Glenarm Ops & M arket Purchases)
Solar -Storage
R eplacement
LDES
R eplacement
Hydrogen
Conversion
A ccel L ocal
R esources
A ccel L ocal
R esources Plus
A ccel L ocal
R esources
A ccel L ocal
R esources Plus
New R esource Needs by 2031
New R enewables (M W ) 600 568 165 363 417 123 151
New Storage (M W ) 339 215 - 173 214 76 100
New DR & L oad Flex (M W ) 35 37 35 35 36 35 35
Clean E nergy M etrics by 2031
Metric 1 (%) 167% 183% 127% 170% 171% 108% 108%
Metric 2 (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96%
Metric 3 (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 95%
Relative Costs in 2031
I ncremental Cost ($M /yr) +$80-140 +$95-155 +$20-55 +$45-85 +$45-85 +$5-15 +$10-25 Other Considerations
L ocal Resource Siting
T echnology Readiness
Ups trea m H
2 I nfrastructure
Wholesale M arket Exposure
R esource A dequacy R isk
L ocal R esilience
L ong-Term Optiona lity
Summary Results for 2031 Case Studies
Note: M etri c calculati ons are based on a si ngle determi ni sti c y ear of normal weather condi ti ons and do not capture ev ents whe re transmission or distribution conti ngenci es would requi re Glenarm to operate to ensure local reli abi li ty . A ctual outcomes may v ary due to i mpacts of natura l year -to-y ear weather v ari abi li ty , transmission and distribution contingencies, and dispatch instructions provided by CA ISO.
Higher ris k Lower risk
Pasadena Water and Power
Staff Recommendation
27 • Adopt the MSC recommendation;
• Direct PWP to complete an Optimized Strategic Plan ("OSP") final report, establishing a roadmap to meet the goals set forth by City Council-adopted Resolution 9977; • Direct staff to include the following five foundational components in the final OSP report, each of which has been demonstrated to be an important part of a portfolio that balances Resolution 9977 goals of carbon-free energy, reliability, affordability, and equity:
> Procurement of external renewables and storage resources, with a focus on resource diversity; > Accelerated development of local solar and storage resources within the PWP service territory; > Development of demand-side programs and rate structures to encourage load flexibility, managed electric vehicle charging, and other cost-effective demand response; > Preservation of the Glenarm Power Plant as a backup/limited resource for reliability; and > Pursuit of a balanced position in the CAISO wholesale energy market, allowing for sales and purchases to manage imbalances in supply and demand;
• Direct staff to continually evaluate and implement approaches to achieve the City's goals set forth in Resolution 9977 by the end 2030 and to utilize the 2028 Waypoint ("Waypoint") to develop a revised Integrated Resource Plan that is consistent with state requirements and Resolution 9977