ATTACHMENT 1
Stanislaus
STANISLAUS COUNTY CIVIL GRAND JURY
PO Box 3387 - Modesto, CA 95353 - (209) 525-4252 - Fax (209) 558-8170 County
Striving to be the Best
City Clerk's Office
Date Recelved le 27. 2a
Date: June 16, 2022 4:11 pm
Time —
Initials ATA
Case #: 22-07GJ
CONFIDENTIAL - DELIVERY BY Certified Mail- Return Receipt Requested
Name of Party Being Served Report
Patterson City Council
1 Plaza
Patterson, CA 95363
Dear Patterson City Council
The Stanislaus County Civil Grand Jury has completed the attached report. The Civil Grand Jury is providing you with a copy of this report two days in advance of its public release, as required by California Penal Code §933.05(f). The Penal Code also prohibits you from disclosing any contents of the report prior to public release by the Civil Grand Jury.
Your response to the jury's findings and recommendations must be submitted to the Presiding Judge of the Superior Court, the Honorable Robert B. Westbrook, at PO Box 3488, Modesto, CA 95353. Submit a hard copy of your response.
Enclosed are guidelines that may be helpful as you prepare your response.
Sincerely,
Michelic.Herrero
Michael Herrero, Foreperson
2022-2023 Civil Grand Jury
Distribution Information
• Other In person
Signature Date
Printed Name Time Served
The Future of Urban Water Supply and Demand
2021-2022 Stanislaus County Civil Grand Jury
Case #22-07GJ
SUMMARY
California has some of the most variable weather conditions in the country. There are frequent swings between wet and dry years. It is projected that this variability will increase and be manifested in either a decrease in total precipitation over time and/or more frequent and extreme swings between wet and dry years.
While the majority of water use in the state is for agriculture, this investigation examines how two cities, Modesto and Patterson, are preparing to meet the challenges posed by this changing water landscape. These challenges come both from the changing climate and from State mandates for water use reduction.
GLOSSARY
AFY: acre feet per year. One acre foot equals about 320 gallons, or enough water to cover an acre of land, about the size of a football field, one foot deep.
GPCD: gallons per capita daily. Volume of metered water to residential properties, divided by the total population served, then divided by 365.
Groundwater: water present beneath the ground.
Surface water: water that collects on the surface of the ground.
Blended water: a combination of surface water and groundwater.
Non-potable water: water not treated to drinking water standards.
Potable water: water that is safe to be used as drinking water Overdraft: use of groundwater which exceeds the rate at which it is replenished.
Secondary sewage treatment: the removal of biodegradable matter from sewage.
Tertiary sewage treatment: treatment which removes inorganic compounds, bacteria, viruses, and parasites from sewage.
SCCGJ: Stanislaus County Civil Grand Jury
BACKGROUND
The State has enacted significant water legislation applicable to urban water suppliers for over three decades, most notably in the last fifteen years. These include:
• Requirement that cities prepare Urban Water Management Plans every five years • Modification of building codes mandating water meters and fixture efficiency standards
• Mandated reductions in per capita water use
• Requirement that Sustainable Groundwater Management Plans be prepared for most underground water basins with the goal over time of eliminating groundwater depletion
• Requirement that State agencies prepare standards, including for indoor residential water use, outdoor residential water use, commercial and industrial landscape water use, and water system losses. These standards are currently in preparation
The State mandates that local suppliers plan for six levels of water shortage, ranging from 10% to 50%. In their Urban Water Management Plans, each supplier must show the steps it will take to reduce demand by these percentages.
Restrictions on water supply come not just from variable climate and restrictions on pumping, but from water quality issues and water facility failures.
One of the most effective ways to promote water conservation is through water pricing. As with all goods, the higher the price the lower the consumption. In 1996 California voters approved Proposition 218. Among its provisions is a requirement that utility fees imposed by local governments not exceed the cost of providing those services. A court ruling in 2015, Capistrano Taxpayers Association v. City of San Juan Capistrano, confirmed that the cost of a service must be related to the cost of its provision. Therefore, a city could have a tiered water rate structure based on volume, but it would need to first show that the cost of providing the additional water was higher.
METHODOLOGY
The SCCGJ:
• Reviewed materials related to water conservation in California, Stanislaus County, Modesto, and Patterson
• Reviewed various water documents and plans related to water in Modesto and Patterson, including each city's Urban Water Management Plan • Interviewed staff from the City of Modesto and City of Patterson
DISCUSSION, CITY OF MODESTO
Until the mid-1990s all of Modesto's water came from groundwater wells. Modesto and the Modesto Irrigation District (MID) then entered into an agreement to partially replace groundwater with surface water. A surface water treatment plant was built by MID at Modesto Reservoir. About 50% of the City's water now comes from treated surface water.
During dry years MID reduces its treated surface water deliveries to Modesto and the City compensates by pumping additional groundwater. During wet years, the system is designed to maximize MID deliveries, thus reducing groundwater pumping and helping to recharge the groundwater. Since the City began using blended water, its groundwater levels have risen, reversing the downward trend prior to the project.
The City projects that the surface water treatment plant can supply up to 67,200 acre feet per year (AFY). Up to 53,000 AFY is the maximum amount of groundwater pumping before levels are projected to decrease. Given the switching between sources, it is difficult to project total available water in any given year.
Future constraints on this supply include limitation on groundwater pumping based on the Sustainable Groundwater Plans in preparation, periods of drought that limit the amount of available surface water, and the interaction between these two constraints. For example, during prolonged dry periods with reduction in available surface water, limitations on groundwater pumping might constrain the City from fully compensating with groundwater.
In 2020 Modesto used about 53,000 AFY. Its projection for water demand, based on an assumption of 1% annual population growth, is:
2025 64,000 AFY
2030 68,000 AFY
2035 73,000 AFY
2040 78,000 AFY
State and local regulations and incentives, in addition to a growing public awareness of California's water supply concerns, have led to reductions in GPCD water use. As shown below, consumption has been declining over time. During the drought years of 2014 and 2015 it decreased substantially. However, by 2020 it had increased about 7%. 2005 274 gpcd
2013 225 gpcd
2014 199 gpcd
2015 163 gpcd
2020 175 gocd
Following are the steps Modesto has identified for the six levels of water shortage. Based on a state executive order, the City has recently enacted the second level (20% reduction), while indicating it might be necessary to enact the third level (30% reduction). The following restrictions on days and hours for outdoor watering do not apply for drip irrigation systems. 10% reduction Expand public information programs, prohibit outdoor water use from noon to 7 pm, limit outdoor watering to three days per week, probibit hosing concrete and building exteriors, encourage restaurants serve water only on request, give property owners 24 hours to repair any leaks
20% reduction 10% reductions plus limit outdoor water use to two days per week from Nov 1 through March 31
30% reduction 10% and 20% reductions plus prohibit restaurants from serving water, mandatory retrofit with low-flow showerheads with remodeling, no use of outdoor water features except for maintenance, no irrigation for 48 hours after rainfall, hotels and motels must offer opt out linen service, increase in frequency of meter reading
40% reduction 10%, 20% and 30% reductions plus prohibit outdoor water use from 9 am to 7 pm (including car washes), modify water rate structure to offset anticipated revenue losses from reduced water use
50% reduction 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% reductions plus prohibit outdoor water use except for trees and shrubs by hand or drip irrigation, car washing only at commercial car washes
Greater than 50% 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% reductions plus moratorium on all new landscaping except for zero-scape, a building moratorium on all new construction including swimming pools, and attempt to purchase additional surface water from MID.
Once any of these steps is adopted, first time violators receive a warning notice. Each subsequent violation results in a fine of between $150 and $500.
The primary method of enforcing these steps is water waste patrols. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic such patrols were curtailed.
Modesto adopted its first water conservation plan in 1990. The plan currently includes mandatory water meters on existing and new construction (required by the State), educational programs, water surveys for residential properties to detect leaks, rebates for high-efficiency clothes washers, low flow toilets, removal of turf and installation of low water demand landscaping, installation of rain barrels, installation of drip irrigation, installation of smart irrigation controllers, and purchase of high efficiency sprinkler nozzles.
Information on the use of the rebates and public outreach efforts was requested from the City.
But since the City did not respond to this request, the SCCJ was unable to evaluate the effectiveness of these programs.
Modesto will soon complete its program to retrofit all existing properties with water meters.
Prior to meters the City's water rates were based on property size. With meters they consist of a fixed meter charge based on the size of the water line connecting to the property, plus a volume rate which is the same regardless of amount of water consumed.
In 2016 the City commissioned a consultant to study its water rates and fees. The consultant found Modesto's costs of producing water could not support a tiered rate and still comply with Proposition 218. In place of a tiered rate structure, the consultant recommended, and the City adopted, a surcharge which can be applied during droughts, applying equally to all customers.
Education is a key component of Modesto's conservation program, especially at the elementary level. Here again, this aspect of the program was curtailed by the COVID-19pandemic.
Another part of the program is reducing water system loss. This is basically water lost to leaking pipes. The most recent estimate by the City was a 10% system loss, or roughly 52 gallons per connection per day. A connection is the point where an individual customer's service line connects to the main city line. There are over 78,000 connections.
DISCUSSION, CITY OF PATTERSON
Patterson gets all its water from groundwater. It has seven wells for potable water, and three for non-potable water. The non-potable water is used primarily for landscape irrigation.
In 2020, the City supplied a total of 3,894 AFY of potable water. Based on 2.26% annual population growth, it projects that even with conservation measures, it will have significant gaps in needed supply in the future. In 2050 that projected gap is 7,424 AFY. The same is true for non-potable water, with a gap of 1,286 AFY projected by 2050.
GPCD increased in the early 2000s, but declined during the 2014 and 2015 drought years.
Between 2015 and 2020 GPCD increased 16%, close to the level from the early 2000s. These numbers are for potable water only.
2001 154 gpcd
2005 151 gpcd
2010 170 gpcd
2015 126 gpcd
2020 146 gpcd
The City has few existing options to meet its projected supply gaps without overdrafting groundwater. It is therefore exploring three strategies.
The first strategy is recycling sewage from its treatment plant. One way to do this would be to transfer its sewage, which receives secondary treatment, to Modesto's treatment plant, which is just across the San Joaquin River from Patterson's plant. Modesto's plant has tertiary treatment.
The treated sewage would be put in the Delta Mendota Canal, from which Patterson would extract it, treat it, and use for potable water supply. This project could produce 5,320 AFY and has a price tag of $42 million.
Alternatively, Patterson could upgrade its own treatment plant to provide tertiary treatment. The treated sewage would be percolated into the groundwater and later extracted for non-potable water. This project could produce 5,040 AFY and has a price tag of $39 million.
The second strategy is greater reliance on non-potable water for commercial and public landscaping. The City projects between 10-25% of its potable supply can be saved in this manner by 2035.
The third strategy is stormwater capture. The City recently entered into an agreement with the Del Puerto Water District and others related to the proposed construction of a reservoir using, in part, water flow from Del Puerto Creek. The Agreement gives Patterson the right to capture creek water released from the future reservoir at no cost except for the actual cost of building and maintaining a diversion facility from the creek. The total amount that can be captured is:
• Wet year: 1,700 AFY
Above normal year: 1,400 AFY
• Below normal year: 800 AFY
• Dry year: 600 AFY
• Critical year: 200 AFY
Under this Agreement, the City also retains the right to capture flood flows from Del Puerto Creek.
These three strategies combined are projected to be able to supply 20-40% of total demand by 2035.
Following are the steps Patterson has identified it will take for the six levels of water shortage.
Until the recent state executive order, Patterson had been at level 1.
Consumption Level When Projected
Reduction Action Action Applies Reduction
Demand Reduction Program All levels 0-50%
Voluntary Water Use Reductions 1-3 0-30%
Voluntary Restrictions, no waste, not enforced 1-2 0-20% Public Outreach Measures, General 1-2 0-20%
Public Outreach Measures, General and Specific 3-6 30-50% Expedite Conversion of Water Efficient Fixtures 1-3 10-30% Irrigation Reduction, limit 3 days/week 1-2 0-20%
Irrigation Reduction, limit 2 days/week 1-4 0-40%
Irrigation Reduction, parks/open spaces 2-6 20-50%
Irrigation Reduction, no lawn watering 5-6 40-50%
Customer Leak Repair, w/in five days of detection 1-6 10-50% Utility Leak Repair, expedite larger repairs 3-6 20-50% Mandatory restrictions, no waste enforced 3-6 20-50%
Apply flow restrictions to customers 5-6 40-50%
Water shortage rate surcharge 3-6 20-50%
Apply penalties for excessive water use 3-6 20-50%
Restrict water use for priority uses only 4-6 30-50%
Mandatory water rationing, per capita allotment 5-6 40-50% First time violators of these requirements receive a notice. The second violation results in a $25 fine, the third violation a $50 fine, and the fourth and subsequent violations a $100 fine. Water may be shut off atter the third fine, but to date this has not occurred.
Patterson enforces these water reduction mandates through water waste patrols. The patrols were severely cut back during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Patterson projects that the conservation measures it has adopted contribute about 3% to potable water supply today, rising to over 7% by 2050. It has two rebate programs to encourage water conservation. The first is turf replacement, with a rebate of $1 per square foot. To date about 27,000 square feet of turf has been removed. The second is for low-flow toilets with a $100 rebate. It estimates there are 2,400 homes in Patterson that qualify for the toilet rebate. To date about 100 units have been converted.
The City also distributes low flow shower heads, faucet aerators, shut off nozzles, and leak detection tablets free of charge.
System water loss reached a high of eighty-three gallons per connection per day in 2017. In 2020 the loss was reduced to thirty gallons per connection per day. Historically, the City has experienced water system losses of 10-12%. The goal is to reduce loss to 8%. There are approximately 6,900 connections.
Water rates in Patterson have a base amount paid by all which varies accordingly to the size of the connection. Above this base, there are two tiers of charges based on volume used. In the second tier the rates are higher than in the first tier.
FINDINGS, OVERALL
F1. The changing climate is putting pressure on the supply side for urban water systems.
F2. The likelihood of more stringent state mandated reductions in water use is putting pressure on the demand side.
F3. Even if sufficient supply may exist in any given year in Modesto or Patterson, state mandates may still require greater conservation measures.
FINDINGS, CITY OF MODESTO
F4. The City showed foresight in moving to a blended water supply over 25 years ago and is well positioned to maintain an adequate supply of water.
F5. While Modesto has greatly reduced its per capita daily consumption, based on likely State action, it will need to further reduce its gallons per capita daily usage.
F6. The City's rate consultant assumed that rate increases or surcharges due to drought conditions, after being offset by lowered consumption, would result in no net increase in total cost to customers. The SCCGJ finds this assumption to be risky and that reductions in daily per capita consumption may result in financial pressure on the water fund and thus customers.
F7. The City is losing over four million gallons of water per day due to system leakage.
FINDINGS, CITY OF PATTERSON
F8. The City has made progress on securing additional sources of water through its Agreement with the Del Puerto Water District.
F9. Other possible strategies to increase supply are not yet finalized.
F10. Since 2001 Patterson has reduced its GPCD consumption by 9%. Based on likely State action, it will need to further reduce its gallons per capita daily usage.
F11. The City's conservation programs, such as turf and toilet replacement, have had minor impact to date.
F12. Further reductions in daily per capita consumption will result in pressure on the City water fund to cover fixed costs.
F13. The City is losing about 207,000 gallons of water per day due to system leakage.
F14. The City has a tiered rate structure, i.e., per unit water costs more the more one uses.
RECOMMENDATIONS, CITY OF MODESTO
R1. Modesto should adopt a more aggressive conservation program to reduce its gallons per capita daily consumption and the severity of future rate increases.
R2. Modesto should better educate its citizens on the need to conserve so that when greater restrictions are required, the public is more accepting of the need.
R3. Modesto should accelerate its efforts to limit water system loss.
RECOMMENDATIONS, CITY OF PATTERSON
R4. Patterson should move as quickly as possible to evaluate and implement, if deemed feasible, the other strategies it has identified to increase supply.
R5. Patterson should better educate its citizens on the need to conserve so that when greater restrictions are required, the public is more accepting of the need.
R6. Patterson should adopt a more aggressive conservation program to reduce its gallons per capital daily consumption and the severity of future rate increases.
R7. Patterson should accelerate its efforts to limit water system loss.
R8. While the SCCGJ supports a tiered rate structure to promote conservation, Patterson should once again evaluate whether this structure complies with the requirements of Proposition 218.
REQUEST FOR RESPONSES
The following responses are required pursuant to Penal Code §933(c) and §933.05:
City of Modesto City Council: F1, F2, F3, F4, F5, F6, F7, RI, R2, R3 City of Patterson City Council: F1, F2, F8, F9, F10, F11, F12, F13, F14, R4, R5, R6, R7, R8
F1, F2, These responses are required to be submitted to the Court within ninety days of receipt of the report. They shall be submitted to:
Honorable Robert B. Westbrook
Presiding Judge, Superior Court of California, County of Stanislaus P.O. Box 3488
Modesto, CA 95353
DISCLAIMER
This case, #22-07GJ, is issued by the 2021-2022 Stanislaus County Civil Grand Jury with the following exception: two jurors voluntarily recused due to a potential conflict of interest. These jurors were excluded from all phases of the investigation, including interviews, deliberations, voting, writing, and approval of this report. None of the information included in this report was obtained from the recused jurors to prevent any potential bias in the report.
Reports issued by the Grand Jury do not identify individuals interviewed. Penal Code §929 requires that reports of the Grand Jury not contain the name of any person or facts leading to the identity of any person who provides information to the Grand Jury.
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
California Department of Water Resources, Water Use Efficiency Branch. "Results of the Indoor Residential Water Use Study."
California Water Efficiency Partnership. "Lower Water Bills: The City of Los Angeles Shows How Water Conservation and Efficient Water Rates Produce Affordable and Sustainable Use." June 2018
City of Modesto and Modesto Irrigation District. "Joint 2020 Urban Water Management Plan".
June 2021.
City of Modesto. "Water Conservation Plan Update." April 2017.
City of Modesto. "City of Modesto Water Rate and Fee Study". September 2016.
City of Patterson. "Draft 2020 Urban Water Management Plan". March 2021.
City of Patterson. "City of Patterson Water Master Plan Final Report." March 2018.
Swain D., Langenbrunner B., Neelin J.D., Hall A. "Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty- first-century California." Nature Climate Change (May 2018).
HOW TO RESPOND TO FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Responses
The California Penal Code §933(c) specifies both the deadline by which responses shall be made to the Civil Grand Jury Final Report recommendations, and the required content of those responses.
Deadline for Responses
All agencies are directed to respond to the Presiding Judge of the Stanislaus County Superior Court,
• Not later than 90 days after the Civil Grand Jury submits a final report on the operations of a public agency, the governing body of that agency shall respond to the findings and recommendations pertaining to the operations of their agency.
Not later than 60 days after the Civil Grand Jury submits a final report on the operation of a County agency, the elected head governing that agency shall respond to the findings and recommendations pertaining to the operations of their agency.
Information copies of responses pertaining to matters under the control of a county officer or agency are to be sent to the Board of Supervisors. • A copy of all responses to the Civil Grand Jury reports shall be placed on file with the clerk of the public agency and the Office of the County Clerk, or the city clerk when applicable.
• One copy shall be placed on file with the applicable Civil Grand Jury by, and in the control of, the currently impaneled Grand Jury, where it shall be maintained for a minimum of five years.
Content of Responses
For each Civil Grand Jury findings and recommendations, the responding person or entity shall report one of the following actions:
• The respondent agrees with the finding.
• The respondent disagrees wholly or partially with the finding and shall include an explanation.
• The recommendation has been implemented, with a summary regarding the implemented action.
• The recommendation has not been implemented, but will be implemented in the future, with a time frame for implementation.
• The recommendation requires further analysis, with an explanation and the scope and parameters of an analysis or study, and a time frame if it is to be implemented later.
• The recommendation will not be implemented because it is unwarranted or unreasonable, with supportive explanation.
Respond to:
Responses to the Civil Grand Jury's findings and recommendations are sent in the form of an original hard copy (Microsoft Word or PDF) to:
The Honorable Robert B. Westbrook, Presiding Judge
Superior Court of California, County of Stanislaus
PO Box 3488
MODESTO, CA 95353