City of Patterson
Regional Traffic
Impact Fee (TIF)
February 2, 2024
for the City of Patterson, CA
City of Patterson Regional
Traffic Impact Fee (TIF)
Final Report
Prepared for:
City of Patterson
Prepared by:
Advanced Mobility Group
February 2, 2024
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 1 Table of Contents
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESULTS..................................................................................................3 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................3 LEGAL CONTEXT ..........................................................................................................................3
2.0 FUTURE LAND USE ASSUMPTION..............................................................................................6 LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS AND FORECAST ................................................................................6 TRAVEL DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS AND FORECASTS ..................................................................8
3.0 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS AND COSTS ..................................................................10 PROJECT SELECTION .................................................................................................................10 PROJECT LIST..............................................................................................................................10 FACILITY COST ESTIMATES .........................................................................................................10
4.0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM FEE......................................................................................................11 OVERVIEW OF FINDINGS ..........................................................................................................11 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL AND COST ALLOCATION..............................................................13 MAXIMUM FEE CALCULATION .................................................................................................15 REFERENCES .........................................................................................................................................17 City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 2 LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Maximum Allowable Transportation Impact Fee .....................................................4 Table 2: General Plan Land Use Assumptions and Forecasts ................................................7 Table 3: Trip Generation Rate Assumptions.............................................................................8 Table 4: Trip Generation Projections.........................................................................................9 Table 5: Summary of TIF Projects and Costs...........................................................................11 Table 6: TIF Travel Demand Assumptions ...............................................................................14 Table 7: TIF Cost Allocation Assumptions and Calculations.................................................15 Table 8: Maximum Fee per Trip ...............................................................................................15 Table 9: Maximum TIF Schedule..............................................................................................16
LIST OF APPENDICES
DETAILED TIF PROJECT LIST AND COSTS ESTIMATES ................................. A.1 City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESULTS
INTRODUCTION
The Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) provides the City of Patterson (City) with the necessary technical documentation to support the adoption of a new Citywide Transportation Impact Fee Program (TIF Program). Impact fees are one-time charges on new development that the City can collect to cover the cost of impact on capital facilities and infrastructure that are required to serve new growth.1 Typically such fees are collected upon issuance of a building permit.
The City adopted a 2010 General Plan update in July 2010. The General Plan identifies roadway and infrastructure mitigation measures to accommodate the projected traffic impact due to the buildout of future land use in the City. In anticipation of funding required to build those future infrastructure improvements, the City completed the Patterson Transportation Infrastructure Master Plan (TIMP) project in 2020. The goal of the TIMP is an attempt to identify Patterson’s existing and future roadway infrastructure problem areas and potential solutions that may occur through a combination of public and private infrastructure investments.
The main purpose of this TIF is to estimate funds needed to implement key transportation improvements necessary to accommodate and mitigate the impacts of future development in the City. To support the TIF program, the City prepare this Nexus Study that will provide a legal basis for requiring development impact fees consistent with Mitigation Fee Act (AB 1600/ Government Code Section 66000 et seq.).
The Fee Program described in this TIF Study is based on growth projections and transportation infrastructure requirements identified in the General Plan, TIMP and supporting documents (e.g., GP Environmental Impact Report). This TIF Study quantifies the potential allocation of the proposed transportation improvements to new growth in the City and calculates the maximum allowable transportation impact fee schedule by land use category. The City may decide to adopt fees below the maximum supportable level based on economic or policy considerations. Such fee reductions should be considered in conjunction with the availability of other sources of capital improvement funding.
LEGAL CONTEXT
This TIF Study is designed to provide the necessary technical analysis to support a schedule of transportation impact fees to be established by an Impact Fee Act Fee Ordinance and Resolution. The Mitigation Fee Act allows the City to adopt, by resolution, the Transportation Impact Fee consistent with the supporting technical analysis and findings provided in this report. Using the Resolution approach to setting the fee allows periodic adjustments of the fee amount that may be necessary over time, without having to amend the ordinance.
Traffic impact fees could be collected and used to cover the cost of constructing capital and infrastructure improvements to serve new development and growth in the City. Therefore, these impact fees must be based on a reasonable connection or nexus between new growth and development and the need for such improvement. As such traffic impact fees cannot be used to cover the operation and maintenance costs of these or any other facilities and infrastructure. Lastly, traffic impact fees cannot be collected or used to cover the cost of existing needs/ deficiencies in the City transportation capital improvement network.
In establishing, increasing, or imposing a fee as a condition for the approval of a development project, Government Code 66001(a) and (b) state that the local agency must:
1 Assumed to include any development activity (as defined in the study) that generates new traffic impacts on the City’s transportation infrastructure when completed
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 4 1. Identify the purpose of the fee;
2. Identify how the fee is to be used;
3. Determine how a reasonable relationship exists between the fee use and type of development project for which the fee is being used;
4. Determine how the need for the public facility relates to the type of development project for which the fee is imposed; and
5. Show the relationship between the amount of the fee and the cost of the public facility.
These statutory requirements have been followed in establishing this TIF.
Once the TIF is adopted, this TIF Study and the accompanying technical information should be maintained and reviewed periodically to ensure Impact Fee accuracy and to ensure the adequate programming of funding sources. As necessary, any changes to costs due to development changes over time, then the TIF will need to be updated.
MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE FEE SCHEDULE
Table 1 shows the City’s maximum traffic impact fee schedule by land use consistent with nexus requirements. These traffic impact fees apply to new residential and nonresidential development and cover the transportation improvement costs required to support new development after existing deficiencies have been taken into account. The fee estimates also include a 2 percent fee program administration fee, consistent with Mitigation Fee Act program administrative costs in many other California jurisdictions.2 The fees apply to all new development, except those exempted by the Ordinance of other means, such as approved projects under the terms of a Development Agreement.3 The adoption of the recommended fee schedule would result in fee revenues of about $197.9 million in today’s dollar terms assuming full build-out of the General Plan consistent with current land use designations. An additional $179.9 million in revenues will be required from other funding sources to cover the full cost of the transportation facilities4 included in the fee calculations. That is, the TIF is estimated to generate approximately 52 percent of the revenue needed to cover the future transportation improvements and facilities costs identified to mitigate growth impacts associated with build-out of the General Plan.
Table 1: Maximum Allowable Transportation Impact Fee
2 The 2 percent administration cost is estimated to cover expenses related development of impact fee study and subsequent updates as well as the required reporting, auditing, collection and other annual administrative costs involved in overseeing the program. It is consistent with TIF programs throughout California.
3 Includes Villages of Patterson, Arambell Development and Remains of West Patterson Business Park 4 City of Patterson Transportation Infrastructure Master Plan Residential Units (du)
Total TIF
per Unit
Single Family $6,243
Medium Density - Single Family $6,243
- Multi-Family $3,531
High Density $3,011
Non-residential (ksf)
Retail $8,637
Non-Residential Mixed Use $7,012
Office $6,515
Limited Industrial $4,560
General Industrial/Warehouse $2,968
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 5 KEY ISSUES AND ASSUMPTIONS
The results of this analysis are based on a variety of conditions and assumptions regarding infrastructure costs, land use growth projections, and transportation demand. These assumptions are discussed later but some of the key issues are summarized below:
• Future Development and Trips. The fee calculations were based on residential and nonresidential development projections, and associated trip generation. Land use and cost information are based on the approved 2010 General Plan, recently approved projects and TIMP information. In addition, the StanCOG Travel Demand model was utilized to conduct travel demand analysis. • Capital Improvement Program. The list of transportation improvements included in the Fee Program focuses on future projects identified in the approved TIMP report. • Cost Estimates. AMG has developed or updated cost estimates based on latest available Caltrans unit cost for all TIMP transportation improvement projects identified. The cost estimates were based on assumptions about the planned right-of-way, number of lanes, cross-sections and intersection control for each improvement. Assumptions were based on similar existing corridors within the City of Patterson, input from the County, consistent with the City’s roadway design standards and have been reviewed and confirmed by City staff. • Cost Allocation. Transportation analysis conducted by AMG (including Select Link Analysis) was used to determine the portion of transportation improvements costs to be included in the fee program. Only transportation improvement costs specifically required to support new development are included in the transportation impact fee calculation.
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 6 2.0 FUTURE LAND USE ASSUMPTION
This chapter documents the land use and growth assumptions and forecasts used in this study. These assumptions determine the amount of future traffic generation and attraction in the City of Patterson which are key factors in determining how to allocate new transportation improvement costs between existing and various new development land uses in the future.
LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS AND FORECAST
The existing and future City of Patterson land use estimates used in the TIF are based on several sources including the 2010 General Plan (approved in July 2010), three major approved project land uses, and more recent land use updates provided by the City5. Based on discussions with City staff6, three major approved projects included are:
• West Patterson Business Park Master Plan was approved in 2003 – Originally approved for approximately 8.5 million sf light industrial, freeway commercial, R&D and residential.
Approximately 5 million sf available.
• Villages of Patterson was approved in 2007 – 3,100 dwelling units and 1.1 million sf of light industrial, office, retail and public use. Only elementary school on Hartley Avenue has been completed.
• West Patterson Business Park Expansion was approved in 2012 –11 million sf light industrial, 839 ksf business park & 198 ksf business park. 1.5M sf distribution center has been developed.
Trips to be generated by the three approved and yet to be developed projects would be considered in future traffic forecasts. However, since future potential impacts and mitigation measures have been considered and approved by Council in Development Agreements (DA), these future trips would not be considered a part of the TIF developed in this study.
The future buildout of the remaining General Plan land use includes Zacharias/Baldwin Master Plan and Non-Committed land use in the City. The TIF would be based on these two major land uses which will generate future traffic and impacts on City transportation infrastructure.
The buildout potential of Zacharias/Baldwin Master Plan consists of:
• 5,086 dwelling units, and
• 7,765,000 square feet of non-residential uses.
The buildout potential of Non-Committed land use in the City is estimated to include:
• 15,201 dwelling units, and
• 9,988 square feet of non-residential uses.
The City of Patterson land use growth projections are used in the travel demand model based on Stanislaus Council of Government (StanCOG) model to estimate future regional travel demand based on various assumptions as it relates to roadway network and trip rates by land use category in the City and the rest of Stanislaus County. The StanCOG model used is the current 2022 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) model which has 2019 as the base year and 2046 future year.
The current and future year land use assumptions used the forecasting model are shown in Table 2. 5 Email from City staff, December 7, 2021
6 Email from City staff, August 05, 2019
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 7 Table 2: General Plan Land Use Assumptions and Forecasts Major land use category assumptions based on Institute of Engineers (ITE) are summarized in Table 2 are categorized as follows:
• Single-Family Residential: This refers to detached single-family homes. Traffic impact fees for new single-family residential development are applied on a per unit basis. It is noted that the medium density land use category includes some single-family units. Recent development trends indicated nearly two-thirds of medium density developments are single family units. • Multifamily Residential (Low-Rise): This category covers apartments, townhomes, condos, duplexes and other multifamily housing and that have one or two levels. Traffic impact fees for new construction of this type of residential development are applied on a per unit basis. • Multifamily Residential (Mid-Rise): This category covers apartments, townhomes, condos, duplexes and other multifamily housing and that have three or more levels. Traffic impact fees for new construction of this type of residential development are applied on a per unit basis. • Retail: Retail development can include shopping centers, discount stores, nurseries, factory outlets, car sale lots, convenient stores, and specialty stores. Traffic impact fees for new construction of this type of development are applied on a square footage basis. • Mixed-Use: This assumed a mix of general offices, including professional and medical office and retail development that could include shopping centers and convenient stores. Traffic impact fees for new construction of this type of development are applied on a square footage basis. • Office: This category covers general offices, including professional and medical office development, government offices, and post offices. Traffic impact fees for this type of development are applied on a square footage basis.
• Limited Industrial: It is typically a free-standing facility devoted to a single use. The facility has an emphasis on activities other than manufacturing and typically has minimal office space. Typical light industrial activities include printing, material testing, and assembly of data processing 2019 Approved
Land Use
Zacharias
Master
Plan
NonCommittedFuture
Total
TIF Growth
(2019-
2046)
Residential Units (du)
Single Family 6,000 0 831 794 1,625 1,625
Medium Density - Single Family 450 1,913 2,432 9,609 13,954 12,041 - Multi-Family 955 1,214 4,797 6,967 6,012
High Density 100 232 609 841 609
Subtotal 6,550 3,100 5,086 15,201 23,387 20,287
Non-residential (ksf)
Retail 602 1,970 350 1,292 3,612 1,642
Non-Residential Mixed Use 0 505 2,551 3,056 3,056
Office 307 0 1,763 1,763 1,763
Limited Industrial 730 6,143 6,910 1,204 14,257 8,114
Warehouse 100 6,556 6,556 0
General Industrial/Warehouse 6,000 6,122 3,178 9,300 3,178 Subtotal 7,739 20,791 7,765 9,988 38,544 17,753
Buildout 2046
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 8 equipment. Traffic impact fees for this type of development are applied on a square footage basis.
• Warehouse: Primarily devoted to the storage of materials, but it may also include office and maintenance areas. Traffic impact fees for this type of development are applied on a square footage basis.
• General Industrial/Warehouse: This is a mix of land uses with general industrial and warehouse activities. Traffic impact fees for this type of development are applied on a square footage basis.
TRAVEL DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS AND FORECASTS
The model was used to estimate future regional travel demand based on various assumptions as it relates to roadway network and trip rates by land use category in the City and the rest of Stanislaus County. The trip generation used in the 2022 RTP Model was developed using total population, households, and employment projections. The land use categories and trip generation for the City of Patterson as shown in Table 2 are based on Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation7 and further refined through model trip lengths and citywide data.
Using some of the model trip length assumptions, the resulting trip demand factors are summarized in Table 3.
Table 3: Trip Generation Rate Assumptions
Table 4 combines the growth estimates summarized in Table 2 and the travel demand assumptions presented in Table 3 to estimate the total growth in trips through build-out of the General Plan which included three major approved projects mentioned earlier. As shown, this approach results in an estimated growth of 29,215 PM peak hour trips per day, which represents approximately a doubling increase over existing levels.
7 ITE Trip Generation Manual 10th Edition, 2017
Type Description Total Land Use
Remaining
Primary
Trips 1
Diverted
Trips 1
Total
Excluding
Pass-by 1
Ave. Trip
Length 2
Adjustment
Factor 3 ITE Code Description Raw Rate
PM
Ave. Rate
PM 4
Trip
Demand
Factor 5
R-L SF Low Density 2,651 86% 11% 97% 14.1 0.9 Single Family Detached (210) 0.99 0.99 0.90 R-M SF Medium Density 2,754 86% 11% 97% 14.1 0.9 Multifamily (220) 0.56 0.56 0.51 R-MH SF Medium High Density 2,361 86% 11% 97% 15.3 1.0 Multifamily Midrise (221) 0.44 0.44 0.44 C/G General/Shopping Center 980,020 47% 31% 78% 12.6 0.7 Shopping Center (820) 3.61 1.91 1.25 MX Non-Residential Mixed Use 2,313,036 62% 25% 87% 14.3 0.8 Mix Office/Shopping (710/820) 2.38 1.22 1.01 C/O Office 490,490 77% 19% 96% 12.8 0.8 Office (710) 1.15 1.15 0.94 I/L Limited Industrial 3,114,557 100% 0% 100% 15.7 1.0 General Lt Ind.l (110) 0.63 0.63 0.66 I/G Warehouse 1,402,502 100% 0% 100% 15.7 1.0 Warehouse (150) 0.19 0.19 0.20 I/G General Industrial/Warehouse 1,402,504 100% 0% 100% 15.7 1.0 Mix Lt Ind./Wrhs (110,150) 0.41 0.41 0.43 Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Note:
1 - Primary trips are direct trips to destination with no midway stops; Diverted trips are linked trips that adds at least one mile to the primary trip. Pass-by trips do not add more than one mile. 2 - Average trip length for the City are derived from the StanCOG model. Mixed Use is average of Retail and Office use. 3 - The trip adjustment factor equals the percent of non-pass-by trips multiplied by the average trip length and divided by the systemwide average trip length of 14.99 mile 4 - ITE Code: ITE Trip Generation Manual 10th Edition, 2017; trips per dwelling unit or per ksf 5 - The trip demand factor is the product of the trip adjustment factor and the average PM trips.
Addtional Reference: San Diego Association of the Goverments, Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Regions, April 2002 City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 9 Table 4: Trip Generation Projections
Residential Units (du) Units Trips Units Trips
Single Family 0.90 6,000 5,420 1,625 1,468
Medium Density - Single Family 0.90 450 406 12,041 10,877 - Multi-Family 0.51 6,012 3,072
High Density 0.44 100 44 609 265
Subtotal 6,550 5,870 20,287 15,682
Non-residential (ksf)
Retail 1.25 602 752 1,642 2,053
Non-Residential Mixed Use 1.01 0 0 3,056 3,100
Office 0.94 307 289 1,763 1,662
Limited Industrial 0.66 730 482 8,114 5,354
Warehouse 0.20 100 20 0 0
General Industrial/Warehouse 0.43 6,000 2,577 3,178 1,365 Subtotal 7,739 15,859 17,753 13,533
Grand Total 21,729 29,215
2046 Buildout (TIF
Only Trips) 2019 Trip
Demand
Factor 1
Note:
1 - Final PM peak hour trips (per DU or ksf).
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 10 3.0 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS AND COSTS
This chapter describes the major roadway improvement projects proposed for the City of Patterson as well as their cost estimates. The following chapter discusses the nexus-based cost allocations.
PROJECT SELECTION
The list of infrastructure improvement projects used in the development of traffic impact fees are derived from the Patterson Transportation Infrastructure Master Plan (TIMP) project which was completed in 2020. 8 Estimated costs for the list of infrastructure improvement projects to accommodate new growth were reviewed by City staff at that time including recent review and updates. These capital improvements projects included in the fee program were developed based on conceptual plans and have been developed in sufficient detail to generate good cost estimates.
The list of transportation projects identified in TIMP is the primary basis and did not include the following:
• The TIF program does not include any projects that are outside of the sphere of influence of the City of Patterson.
• The TIF program does not include any projects where secured and dedicated funding sources have already been established to cover the full cost such as those in the Development Agreements.
PROJECT LIST
As part of the Patterson TIMP Study, the City prepared a preliminary conceptual improvement list, as shown in Table 5. The improvements included in the list cover the intersections/segments where significant impact(s) were identified. Particularly, it is assumed that significant cost could be expected at railroad crossings.
None of the projects included in the TIF addresses existing deficiencies. Rather, they are a response to new development and limited to intersections currently operating at an acceptable level of service (LOS) within City’s standards (LOS D) but are expected to deteriorate to below City’ LOS standards with proposed new developments.
FACILITY COST ESTIMATES
The cost estimates shown in Table 5 above are based on assumptions about the planned right-of-way, roadway cross-sections for each corridor. Assumptions were based on similar existing corridors within the City of Patterson and boundary roadways with the County and have been reviewed and confirmed by City staff. Detailed cost estimate sheets for each project are attached to this report as Appendix A. 8 City of Patterson Transportation Infrastructure Master Plan, Final Report, March 6, 2020 City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 11 4.0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM FEE
This chapter presents calculations for the maximum allowable TIF based on the land use projections and estimated transportation improvements cost and its nexus.
OVERVIEW OF FINDINGS
As indicated in the introduction, a “nexus” between new development in City of Patterson and its impact on the transportation improvements and their associated costs must be made before assigning a certain transportation improvement cost into a transportation impact fee calculation. Several necessary steps were taken to determine the appropriate costs to include in the new TIF calculation:
• Estimate Total Costs of Transportation Improvements. The identification of the required transportation improvement projects and their associated costs updates are based on the TIMP and key projects.
• Remove existing deficiencies. This includes evaluation of whether there is an existing deficiency at any of the project locations and the level of that deficiency. • Estimate Proportionate Allocation to New Development. Determine the proportion of the transportation improvement project cost that could be assigned to new development in Patterson after removing any existing deficiencies.
• Deduct Known Funding from Total Cost. Any dedicated funding should be deducted from the transportation fee calculation.
Table 5: Summary of TIF Projects and Costs
I. Roadway Segment Length
(mi)
Cost Estimate
1 Sperry Ave I-5 NB Ramps to Baldwin Rd 1.21 $14,071,888 2 Sperry Ave Ward Ave to SR 33 0.85 $10,786,143
3 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to American Eagle Way 0.80 $6,414,628 4 Ward Ave American Eagle Way to SR 33 0.91 $6,702,419
5 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to Marshall Rd 2.00 $20,374,982
6 Baldwin Rd Keystone Pacific Way to SR 33 2.65 $30,473,386 7 Rogers Rd Sperry Ave to SR 33 4.55 $52,862,858
8 Zacharias Rd Rogers Rd to SR 33 1.89 $30,666,448
9 SR 33 Rogers Rd to Walnut Ave 4.36 $54,069,576
10 SR 33 Sperry Ave to Pomelo Ave 1.40 $17,567,994
11 Walnut Ave SR 33 to Sycamore Ave 1.04 $7,814,730
12 Sycamore Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave 2.08 $14,603,909 13 Elm Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave 2.08 $16,026,134 II. Interchange
14 Sperry Ave/I-5 Interchange A $18,080,640
15 Zacharias Ave/I-5 Interchange B $77,400,000
Total $377,915,736
Note:
County staff input - extra funds for the UPRR coordination & permitting ($1M per intersection). And 40% increase to reflect ENR Construction Cost Index. Email from City to County staff, Thur, April 7, 2022 A - Based on I-5/Sperry Ave Interchange Improvements Project, April 20, 2017 & assumed 20% increase B - Information provided by city staff based on estimates (March 22, 2022) Assumed the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 3.2 percent from July 2022 to July 2023.
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 12 The steps described above and explained in subsequent sections establish the following TIF nexus findings, consistent with the requirements of the Mitigation Fee Act.
Purpose
The fee will ensure adequate levels of transportation service as contemplated in the General Plan are maintained in Patterson.
Use of Fee
Revenue generated by the fee will be used to fund City transportation improvements, including roadway, intersection, multi-modal and traffic signal improvements. The list of eligible transportation projects and costs are summarized in Table 5 and further detailed in Appendix A.
Established Relationship
As discussed previously, new development in the City of Patterson will increase traffic demands on the City’s transportation network. Estimated transportation fee revenue will be used to fund transportation improvements required to maintain acceptable levels of service. New developments will benefit from the increased transportation capacity.
Need
Future new development projects will add traffic and create an incremental need for transportation capacity and improvements. The transportation improvements detailed in this study are considered necessary to meet the City's future transportation needs.
Proportionality
The fee levels are estimated using fair share cost allocations for new Citywide development based on the StanCOG 2022 RTP transportation model adapted for this study.
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 13 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL AND COST ALLOCATION
Travel Demand Model Assumptions and Methodology
The StanCOG countywide travel demand model with refined traffic analysis zones (TAZ) and land use estimates for the City of Patterson was developed for the study. The refinement of the travel demand model was taken to allocate TIF program costs equitably. The StanCOG model is a mathematical representation of travel demand based on the buildout of all of the cities within Stanislaus County, including Patterson. The model uses socioeconomic data, such as number of jobs and households, for different geographic areas (transportation analysis zones) to predict the expected travel between places in the future.
AMG used an adopted model which was validated for the current socioeconomic data to predict current traffic volume, which is matched with the existing counts to calibrate the model. The calibrated model was used to forecast future travel conditions based on the expected changes in the socioeconomic conditions in the future. There are 80 transportation analysis zones (TAZ) within the StanCOG model to represent the City. The 2046 socioeconomic data are generated by StanCOG based on input from all cities in the County. In order to determine appropriate nexus, AMG further refined the model to derive both average citywide and link-specific characteristics of vehicle travel demand including the following:
• Internal (trips that start and end in Patterson)
• Internal/External (trips that have one end either beginning or ending in Patterson) • Through (trips that pass completely through Patterson without stopping) Only the trips originating and ending in Patterson (i.e., Internal trips and Internal/External trips) would be responsible for the TIF fees.
The average citywide characteristics of vehicle travel demand for TIF roadways are shown in Table 6.
These methodologies would be applied to determine the percentage of the project costs that could be funded through the TIF program. Select link methodology was used on the model for allocation and applied as follows:
• Select Link - the cost allocation would be based on link-specific characteristics of vehicle travel demand for the project-related segment (I.e., all the approaching and departure roadway segments of the intersection). The traffic model was used to estimate travel demand characteristics associated with specific transportation improvements as shown in Table 6.
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 14 Table 6: TIF Travel Demand Assumptions
As shown in Table 6, using the model Select Link analysis, the proportion of transportation improvement costs allocated to new development varies by facility or improvement. Generally, approximately seven percent to 10 percent of the trips using the approaching or departure roadway segments of the intersection would pass through Patterson without stopping.
TIF Cost Allocation
The TIF nexus analysis allocates costs based on (1) the amount attributable to new versus existing development, (2) the proportion of trips with at least one trip end in the City (i.e. excludes through trips), and (3) the amount covered by secured funding sources. As described in Chapter 3, none of the projects included in the TIF address existing deficiencies. Rather, they are a response to new development and limited to roadways currently operating at a level of service (LOS) within City’s acceptable LOS D or better standards but are expected to deteriorate to unacceptable LOS standards with proposed new developments.
It should be noted that trips from the three major approved projects (West Patterson Business Park Master Plan, Villages of Patterson and West Patterson Business Park Expansion) which has an approved Development Agreement (DA) were not included in the TIF allocation. The cost allocated to future new development (Zacharias/Baldwin Master Plan and Non-Committed land use) are based on the analysis described above and summarized in Table 6.
Table 7 illustrates the net impact of the cost allocations described above. Overall, this TIF analysis allocates approximately $197.9 million in transportation improvement cost to the TIF. The amount represents about 52 percent of the approximately $377.9 million in future transportation infrastructure costs considered in this analysis.
Roadway Segment I-I I-X X-I X-X Cost Allocation
Methodology
Percent TIF
Projects A
Share Allocated to
New Development
1 Sperry Ave I-5 NB Ramps to Baldwin Rd 19% 28% 37% 16% Select Link 51% 43% 2 Sperry Ave Ward Ave to SR 33 1% 49% 47% 2% Select Link 46% 45% 3 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to American Eagle Way 14% 24% 45% 16% Select Link 48% 40% 4 Ward Ave American Eagle Way to SR 33 14% 24% 45% 16% Select Link 48% 40% 5 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to Marshall Rd 11% 36% 40% 13% Select Link 43% 37% 6 Baldwin Rd Keystone Pacific Way to SR 33 1% 49% 50% 0% Select Link 29% 29% 7 Rogers Rd Sperry Ave to SR 33 5% 40% 55% 0% Select Link 86% 86% 8 Zacharias Rd Rogers Rd to SR 33 27% 32% 40% 0% Select Link 88% 87% 9 SR 33 Rogers Rd to Walnut Ave 0% 38% 44% 17% Select Link 22% 18% 10 SR 33 Sperry Ave to Pomelo Ave 0% 48% 43% 8% Select Link 36% 34% 11 Walnut Ave SR 33 to Sycamore Ave 56% 21% 22% 1% Select Link 21% 21% 12 Sycamore Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave 4% 39% 44% 12% Select Link 56% 49% 13 Elm Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave 0% 42% 47% 10% Select Link 68% 61% 14 Sperry Ave I-5 Interchange Ramp 0% 40% 50% 10% Select Link 72% 65% 15 Zacharias Rd New Interchange 0% 58% 41% 0% Select Link 59% 59% Note:
A - only trips by Zacharias Master Plan & Non-Committed Land Use Trip Types
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 15 Table 7: TIF Cost Allocation Assumptions and Calculations
MAXIMUM FEE CALCULATION
Based on the estimated TIF transportation improvement cost as shown in Table 7, the maximum supportable transportation impact fee per trip is shown in Table 8. The maximum fee per trip is calculated by dividing the estimated total TIF fee program cost of $197.9 million by the total number of trips generated by new TIF related development, or 29,215 (see Table 4). This results in an average TIF per peak hour trip of $6,776.
Table 8: Maximum Fee per Trip
Finally, Table 9 calculates the maximum TIF for several land use categories shown in the General Plan. As typically applied in most agencies, the maximum allowable TIF by land use includes a 2 percent charge to cover the administrative cost of administering the TIF program. The maximum supportable fees are the fee levels that would generate sufficient fee revenues to cover the full TIF cost allocation of $197.9 million. As discussed below, decisions to charge fees below the maximum fee will result in funding gaps that would need to be covered by other funding sources.
Roadway Segment Total Project Cost
Share Allocated
to TIF
Development
Cost Allocated to
TIF
1 Sperry Ave I-5 NB Ramps to Baldwin Rd $14,071,888 43% $6,031,282 2 Sperry Ave Ward Ave to SR 33 $10,786,143 45% $4,884,512 3 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to American Eagle Way $6,414,628 40% $2,589,819 4 Ward Ave American Eagle Way to SR 33 $6,702,419 40% $2,706,011 5 Ward Ave Sperry Ave to Marshall Rd $20,374,982 37% $7,609,881 6 Baldwin Rd Keystone Pacific Way to SR 33 $30,473,386 29% $8,939,686 7 Rogers Rd Sperry Ave to SR 33 $52,862,858 86% $45,484,575 8 Zacharias Rd Rogers Rd to SR 33 $30,666,448 87% $26,813,568 9 SR 33 Rogers Rd to Walnut Ave $54,069,576 18% $9,893,075 # SR 33 Sperry Ave to Pomelo Ave $17,567,994 34% $5,885,811 # Walnut Ave SR 33 to Sycamore Ave $7,814,730 21% $1,637,348 # Sycamore Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave $14,603,909 49% $7,160,725 # Elm Ave Eucalyptus Ave to Orange Ave $16,026,134 61% $9,785,011 Sperry Ave/I-5 Interchange A $18,080,640 72% $13,035,887 Zacharias Ave/I-5 Interchange B $77,400,000 59% $45,501,109 Total - Citywide TIMP Transportation Projects $377,915,736 $197,958,300 Interchange
Note:
A – Based on I-5/Sperry Ave Interchange Improvements Project, April 20, 2017 & assumed 20% increase B - Information provided by city staff based on estimates (March 22, 2022) Category Formula Amount
TIF Share of Transportation Cost A $197,958,300
Total Growth PM Trips B 29,215
Cost per Trip (A/B) $6,776
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 16 Table 9: Maximum TIF Schedule
Typical Approval Process
The TIF and corresponding fee schedule will need to be adopted by City Resolution and Ordinance.
When adopted, the City TIF Ordinance will allow the City Council to collect a fee schedule consistent with supporting technical analysis and findings provided in this Report. The Ordinance approach to setting the TIF fee allows for periodic adjustments of the fee amount that may be necessary over time, without amending the enabling Ordinance.
Fee Amount and Collection
The actual fee levels by land use will need to be approved by the City Council but cannot exceed the maximum allowable fees calculated herein (AB 1600).
While the maximum fee amount has been determined by this study, the City may elect to charge less for a variety of valid reasons. The study recommended an amount depending on the type of land use, as described above.
In the course of implementation, it is likely certain projects may not fit neatly into the land use categories defined in the fee schedule (see Table 9). When this happens, the City Manager or an authorized representative will need to make a determination as to the applicable fees. The TIF Ordinance can provide more specific guidelines for resolving such uncertainty. For example, it may include the option for applicants to furnish information or analysis that will justify their project’s inclusion in a particular land use category and/or a lower fee based on verifiable trip generation rates or other factors.
Residential Units (du)
Cost Per
Trip
Trip Demand
Factor 1 Raw Fee
Admin
Charge 2 TIF Unit Cost
Single Family $6,776 0.90 $6,121 2% $6,243
Medium Density - Single Family $6,776 0.90 $6,121 2% $6,243 - Multi-Family $6,776 0.51 $3,462 2% $3,531
High Density $6,776 0.44 $2,952 2% $3,011
Non-residential (ksf)
Retail $6,776 1.25 $8,468 2% $8,637
Non-Residential Mixed Use $6,776 1.01 $6,875 2% $7,012
Office $6,776 0.94 $6,388 2% $6,515
Limited Industrial $6,776 0.66 $4,471 2% $4,560
Warehouse $6,776 0.20
General Industrial/Warehouse $6,776 0.43 $2,910 2% $2,968 Note:
1 - Final PM peak hour trips (per DU or ksf).
2 - Typical administrative charge of 2.0 percent of "raw" TIF (e.g. revenue collection, mandated public reporting, and Nexus Analysis).
City of Patterson Regional Traffic Impact Fee (TIF) February 2, 2024 17 REFERENCES
1. 2010 Patterson General Plan Environmental Impact Report, July 2010
2. City of Patterson Transportation Infrastructure Master Plan, March 6, 2020
3. Trip Generation, 10th Edition, published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Advanced Mobility Group
Christopher Thnay, PE, AICP Principal/Project Manager
Joy Bhattacharya, PE, PTOE QA/QC
Shruti Shrivastava Project Engineer
Lawrence Liao Elite Transportation Group
Persons Consulted
Ken Irwin, PE City Manager, City of Patterson
Joel Andrews City Planner, City of Patterson
CITY OF PATTERSON REGIONAL TRAFFIC IMPACT FEE (TIF)
Appendix A Detailed TIF Project List and Costs Estimates February 2, 2024
A.1
DETAILED TIF PROJECT LIST AND COSTS ESTIMATES