Agenda packet — Patterson City Council, July 21, 2026 (part 2 of 3)

Aracely Alegre
City Clerk of the City of Patterson
I hereby certify that the foregoing is a full, correct and true copy of a resolution passed by the City Council of the City of Patterson, a Municipal Corporation of the County of Stanislaus, State of California, at a regular meeting held on the 21st day of July 2026, and I further certify that said resolution is in full force and effect and has never been rescinded or modified.

DATED:

City Clerk of the City of Patterson
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EXHIBIT A

SUBDIVISION IMPROVEMENT AGREEMENT

VILLAGES OF PATTERSON

SYCAMORE RANCH II
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SUBDIVISION IMPROVEMENT AGREEMENT
City of Patterson
NAME OF PROJECT: SYCAMORE RANCH II
(referred to as the “Project”)
NAME OF SUBDIVIDER: VOP NORTH, LLC
a California limited liability company
(referred to as “Subdivider”)
PARCEL OR TENTATIVE MAP APPROVAL(S): Resolution No. 2023-55 (Vesting Tentative Subdivision Map Sycamore Ranch 2)
IMPROVEMENT PLANS: __________________________________
(referred to as “Improvement Plans”)
ESTIMATED COST OF IMPROVEMENTS: $ 18,905,816.00

COMPLETION PERIOD
FORM OF SECURITY:

TWELVE (12) MONTHS
[X] Surety bond
[ ] Letter of Credit
[ ] Cash deposit
[ ] Other
NAME AND ADDRESS OF SURETY (if applicable):
_________________________________
(Name of Corporate Entity)
_________________________________
_________________________________
SURETY BOND NUMBERS (if applicable): __________________________________

RECORDING REQUESTED BY AND
WHEN RECORDED RETURN TO:

City of Patterson
280 N. Third Avenue
Patterson, CA 95361
Attn: City Clerk
Exempt from recording fees
(Gov. Code §§ 6103 and 27383)
(Space above this line for Recorder’s use)
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This Subdivision Improvement Agreement (“Agreement”) is made and entered into by CITY OF PATTERSON, a California municipality (the “City”), and VOP NORTH, LLC, a California limited liability company (“Subdivider”), as of ______________________________________.

City and Subdivider may individually be referred to herein as a “Party” or collectively as the “Parties.” There are no other parties to this Agreement.

RECITALS
A. Subdivider owns a tract of land lying in the City of Patterson, County of Stanislaus, California, known as the “Sycamore Ranch II” project, as further described in Exhibit A attached hereto (the “Subdivision” or the “Property”).

B. On December 12, 2006, the Patterson City Council (“City Council”) adopted Resolution 2006-122, approving a number of entitlements related to the Villages of Patterson (“VOP”) Development Plan, which encompasses the Subdivision, including, but not limited to:
(1) the VOP Development Plan; (2) Vesting Tentative Subdivision “A” and “B” Maps (together, the “Tentative Map”); (3) the VOP Conditions of Approval; and (4) an environmental impact report, statement of overriding considerations and mitigation monitoring plan in accordance with CEQA for the VOP Development Plan.

C. On December 19, 2006, the City Council adopted Ordinance No. 681, approving a Development Agreement by and between the City of Patterson and Northeast Territories, LP and Relating to the Development known as “The Villages of Patterson” at Patterson, California (the “Development Agreement”), as amended by that certain Operating Memorandum (dated October 15, 2018, and recorded on December 17, 2018 as Document No. 2018-0086098-00 in the official records of Stanislaus County).

D. The Tentative Map is subject to the Subdivision Map Act (Gov. Code § 66410 et seq.), City’s ordinances and regulations related to the filing, approval, and recordation of subdivision maps, the VOP Conditions of Approval, and other relevant conditions contained in Resolution 2006-122 (and any amendments thereto) (together, the “Subdivision Laws”). The Subdivision is also subject to the terms, conditions and obligations contained in the Development Agreement, and development within the Subdivision must be in accordance with the VOP Development Plan.

E. Pursuant to the provisions of the Subdivision Laws, Subdivider has presented to City a proposed final map for the Subdivision (“Final Map”) for approval and recordation.

F. In order for City to approve and record a Final Map for the Subdivision, Subdivider must either complete all of the improvements required for the Project by the Subdivision Laws, the Development Agreement, VOP Development Plan and Tentative Map, or execute an agreement with City to complete the improvements within a specified period.

G. Complete improvement plans for the construction, installation, and completion of certain public improvements, including, but not limited to, improvements in streets, alleys, water mains, sanitary sewers, storm drain systems, sidewalks, bike paths, easements and other rights-ofPacket Pg. 381 way have been prepared by Subdivider and approved by the City Engineer or his designee (“Improvement Plans”).

H. The Parties desire to enter into this Agreement in order to facilitate completion of all improvements required for the Project (“Improvements”).

I. The Improvements shall conform to the Subdivision Laws, and all applicable City standards and policies related to the Improvements (collectively, the “Improvement Standards”).

NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the mutual covenants and benefits that accrue to each, the Parties agree as follows:

AGREEMENT
Section 1. Effective Date. This Agreement shall become effective on the date that all of the following have occurred: (i) City approves Improvement Plans provided by Subdivider; (ii) Subdivider provides securities to City to guarantee completion of the Improvements; and (iii) both Subdivider and City have executed this Agreement (the “Effective Date”).

Section 2. Term. This Agreement shall terminate after (i) City records a Notice of Completion for the Improvements, and (ii) City releases all securities required for the Improvements. Any provisions in this Agreement that are intended to survive such termination, by their express terms or nature of the obligation, shall survive such termination.

Section 3. Estimated Cost of Improvements. The total estimated cost of the Improvements, as provided by Subdivider and reviewed and confirmed by City, is attached hereto as Exhibit B (“Cost Estimate”). The total estimated cost of the Improvements is Eighteen Million Nine Hundred Five Thousand Eight Hundred Sixteen and 0/100 Dollars ($18,905,816.00).

Section 4. Dedication. Except as otherwise provided in this Agreement or in the action of the City Council approving the Final Map, City hereby rejects all lands, rights-of-way and easements offered for dedication on the Final Map or by separate instrument. Such offers, however, shall remain open and constitute irrevocable offers of dedication in accordance with Government Code section 66477.2.

Section 5. Subdivider Obligations. Subdivider shall perform each of the following obligations throughout the term of this Agreement, as conditions precedent to City’s issuance of a building permit for any lot within the Subdivision:

A. Construct and install at Subdivider’s own expense all the Improvements, as shown on the Improvement Plans. The Improvement Plans may only be modified by Subdivider subject to prior written approval by City.

B. Commence construction of the Improvements within six (6) months from the Effective Date unless otherwise extended in writing by the City Engineer. Subdivider shall notify City in writing three (3) days before the commencement of construction of the Improvements.

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C. Complete all Improvements within twelve (12) months from the Effective Date, unless otherwise approved or extended in writing by City, after written application by Subdivider. Such written request for extension shall state in reasonable detail the groundsfor such extension. In granting any extension of time, City may require new Securities to reflect increases in the costs of constructing the Improvements or any other conditions related to the extension of time.

D. Furnish and pay for all necessary equipment, labor and materials to complete the Improvements in conformity with the Improvement Standards.

E. Replace or repair all public improvements, private property, public utility facilities, and surveying or subdivision monuments that are destroyed or damaged in the performance of the work. Subdivider shall bear the entire cost of any such replacements or repairs.

Any repair or replacement work shall be to the satisfaction of City.

F. Provide safe access for inspection of the Improvements by City.

G. Give good and adequate warning to the public of each and every dangerous condition of which Subdivider has actual knowledge, existing on or near the Improvements, and take reasonable action to protect the public from any such dangerous condition.

H. Perform all construction work for the Improvements between 6:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. on weekdays (Monday through Friday), and between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. on weekends and legal holidays, unless otherwise approved in writing by City.

I. Require each contractor and subcontractor to have a competent foreman on the job at all times when that contractor or subcontractor, or any employee or agent thereof, is performing any work for the Improvements. Subdivider or its contractor shall maintain an office with a telephone on the Property or provide a 24-hour contact number for an authorized Project representative. While construction work is being performed on the Improvements, Subdivider or an agent of Subdivider shall be available at the Property within three (3) hours of being called by City.

J. Assume all costs for utility and cable television undergrounding or relocation which is not the responsibility of the cable television, gas, electric, telephone or other utility company under the terms of any franchises with City or otherwise imposed upon the utility companies by law.

K. Obtain and comply with all necessary permits and licenses for the construction and installation of the Improvements, give all necessary notices, and pay all fees and taxes required by law.

L. Participate in the formation of a Community Facilities Districts (“CFD”) to finance ongoing maintenance and public services related to the Property and the VOP area, and complete annexation, and complete all other necessary proceedings to include the Property into such CFDs.

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M. Pursuant to the Operating Memorandum, prior to Final Map recordation, Subdivider shall certify to City that any offsite dedications, easements or rights-of-way required by adjacent landowners are reasonable and approved by the adjacent landowner. Subdivider shall coordinate with such landownersto execute and provide documentation of any easements, rightsof-way, or dedications to City within fifteen (15) business days of receiving a written request for such by City.

Section 6. Inspections. All Improvements shall be constructed under the inspection of City employees or contractors(collectively “City Inspectors”). Upon completion of the Improvements, Subdivider may request a final inspection by City Inspectors. City shall not record the Notice of Completion unless Subdivider has completed all work in accordance with the Improvement Plans and Improvement Standards. If City Inspectors determine that the Improvements have been completed in accordance with the Improvement Plans and Improvement Standards, certification of the completion of the Improvements shall be presented to the City Council, to accept or reject in its sole discretion, and City shall thereafter record a Notice of Completion for the Improvements.

City Inspectors shall have the right to inspect the Improvements for a period of twelve (12) months after the Notice of Completion has been recorded. Subdivider shall bear all costs of inspection, including but not limited to the costs of all third-party inspectors used for the Project.

Section 7. Title to Improvements. City shall not accept any property to be dedicated, or title to the Improvements, unless they are constructed in conformity with the Improvement Plans and Improvement Standards to the satisfaction of City. Subdivider shall retain title to, shall be responsible for, and shall bear the risk of loss to, any of the Improvements constructed or installed, until such time that City accepts the Improvements. Title to and ownership of the Improvements and any real property to be dedicated shall vest absolutely in City upon completion and acceptance of such Improvements. The Improvements shall be entirely free from all liens prior to City’s acceptance. Prior to acceptance, at City’s request, Subdivider shall supply City with appropriate lien releases, at no cost to and in a form acceptable to City.

Section 8. Acceptance of Improvements. The Improvements shall be deemed accepted only after: (A) acceptance by the City Council upon recommendation of the City Engineer, after satisfactory completion and inspection of all Improvements, and (B) issuance of a Notice of Completion by the City Engineer. Such acceptance shall not constitute a waiver by City of any defects or deficiencies in the Improvements.

Section 9. Damage to Improvements. Subdivider is solely responsible for the care and maintenance of, and any damage to, the Improvements, prior to final acceptance by City.

Subdivider shall replace or repair all Improvements, utility facilities, and monuments that are damaged or destroyed for any reason, regardless of the cause of damage or the ownership of the underlying property. Any repair or replacement shall be to the satisfaction of City.

Section 10. Acquisition and Dedication of Easements or Rights-of-Way. If any of the Improvements are to be constructed or installed on land not within the Subdivision or an already existing public right-of-way, no construction or installation shall commence before:

A. The irrevocable offer of dedication or conveyance to City by Subdivider of appropriate rights-of-way, easements or other interests in real property, as determined by City; or Packet Pg. 384
B. Authorization from the affected property owner to allow construction or installation of the Improvements; or
C. The issuance of an order of possession by a court of competent jurisdiction pursuant to the State Eminent Domain Law (Code Civ. Proc., § 1230.010 et seq.). Subdivider shall comply in all respects with any such order of possession.

Section 11. Repair of Defective Work After Acceptance of Improvements. If, within a period of one (1) year after final acceptance of the Improvements, any portion of the Improvements or any work done under this Agreement fails to fulfill any of the requirements of this Agreement or conform to the Improvement Plans or Improvement Standards, Subdivider shall without delay and without any cost to City, repair, replace or reconstruct any defective or otherwise unsatisfactory part of the Improvements. If Subdivider fails to act promptly in accordance with this requirement, or if the exigencies of the situation require repairs or replacements to be made before Subdivider can be notified or correct the situation, then City may, at its option, make the necessary repairs or replacements or perform the necessary work. In such event, City shall first call on the Warranty Security (as defined herein) to pay the costs of the work. Subdivider shall remain responsible for the actual cost of the work performed by City, plus ten percent (10%) for City’s overhead costs to complete the work.

Section 12. Securities.

A. Types of Security. Subdivider shall secure completion of the Improvements by providing the following securities (collectively, the “Securities”). City in its discretion may allow separate Securities to be filed for the portion of Improvements considered to be offsite Improvements and the portion of Improvements considered to be onsite Improvements:
i. Performance Security. A performance security that is one hundred percent (100%) of the total Cost Estimate, securing the Subdivider’s faithful performance and completion of the Improvements (“Performance Security”). ii. Payment Security. An additional amount that is one hundred percent (100%) of the total Cost Estimate, securing Subdivider’s payment to any contractor, subcontractor, person renting or supplying equipment, or furnishing labor and materials for the Improvements (“Payment Security”).
iii. Warranty. An additional amount of ten percent (10%) of the total Cost Estimate, for the guarantee and warranty of the Improvements against any defective work or labor done, or defective materials, for a period of one (1) year following their completion and acceptance by City (“Warranty Security”). Upon Subdivider’s reasonable request, the Warranty Security may be posted after the Final Map is accepted but immediately prior to all public improvements being deemed complete and accepted by City.

B. Conditions of Security.

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i. Bonds. Any bonds submitted as the Securities shall be executed by a surety company authorized to conduct a surety business in California and shall be in a form as specified by the Subdivision Laws.
ii. Irrevocable. All Securities deposited as bonds under this Agreement shall be irrevocable, shall not be limited as to time (except as to the guarantee and warranty period), and shall provide that they may be released, in whole or part, only upon the written approval of City, as provided under the Subdivision Laws and subdivision C below. All Securities shall expressly obligate the surety for any extension of time authorized by City for Subdivider’s completion of the Improvements, whether or not the surety is given notice of such an extension by City.
iii. Replacement. If Subdivider seeks to replace any of the Securities, such replacement security shall: (1) comply with all requirements of this Agreement; (2) be provided by Subdivider to City; and (3) upon written acceptance by City, be deemed to be a part of this Agreement. Upon City’s acceptance of a replacement security, the earlier provided Security may be released.

C. Release of Securities. The Securities required by this Agreement shall be released in accordance with the Subdivision Laws and the following provisions:
i. Performance Security. City shall release the Performance Security after recording a Notice of Completion for all the Improvements, or as may otherwise be authorized in accordance with the Subdivision Laws.
ii. Payment Security. City shall release the Payment Security for the Improvements in accordance with the Subdivision Laws. The Payment Security may, six (6) months after the Notice of Completion is recorded by City, be reduced to an amount equal to the amount of all claims filed related to the Improvements and for which notice has been given to City.

The balance of the Payment Security shall be released upon the settlement of all claims and obligations for which the Payment Security was given.
iii. Warranty. The Securities provided for guarantee and warranty of workmanship shall be released after one (1) year following recordation of a Notice of Completion for the Improvements. If, however, City determines there are defects in the Improvements that require correction pursuant to Section 11 above, and Subdivider fails to correct such defects within a reasonable time, City may utilize the Securities to make all necessary corrections, including payment of reasonable expenses and attorney’s fees in connection with enforcement of any provision of this Agreement.

D. Records. Evidence of the Securities required by this Agreement shall be kept on file with City.

Section 13. Default of Subdivider.

A. Breach. Subdivider shall be deemed to have materially breached this Agreement based on, but not limited to, any of the following occurrences: (i) failure to timely Packet Pg. 386
complete construction of the Improvements; (ii) failure to timely cure any defect in the Improvements to the satisfaction of City; (iii) failure to timely deposit additional Securities as may be required by this Agreement; (iv) Subdivider’s insolvency, appointment of a receiver, or the filing of any petition in bankruptcy either voluntary or involuntary which Subdivider fails to discharge within thirty (30) days; (v) the commencement of a foreclosure action against the Project or a portion thereof, or any conveyance in-lieu or in avoidance of foreclosure; or (vi) failure to perform any other material obligation under this Agreement.

B. Notice of Breach; Default. In the event of any material breach of this Agreement, City shall serve written notice upon Subdivider and Subdivider’s surety, if any, informing Subdivider and its surety of the breach. Subdivider shall have twenty (20) days from receipt of written notice by City to cure any breach. If the breach is not cured, or significant progress towards curing the breach is not made, Subdivider shall be considered in default.

C. Remedies; Performance by City.
i. In the event of Subdivider’s default under this Agreement, and the twenty (20) day cure period has expired without such default having been cured or significant progress made, Subdivider authorizes City to complete all work on the Improvements at the sole expense of Subdivider, and Subdivider authorizes City to utilize the Securities to complete all work on the Improvements and to pay all labor costs of contractors, subcontractors and workers related to the Improvements. In the event of a default by Subdivider, City may (a) take over and complete the Improvements, by contract or by any other method chosen by City, at the expense of Subdivider, (b) Subdivider shall be liable to City for any excess cost or damages incurred by City, including but not limited to costs of suit and attorney’s fees, and (c) City may take possession of, and utilize such materials, appliances, equipment, plant and other property belonging to Subdivider as may be necessary for completion of the Improvements. ii. Failure of Subdivider to comply with the terms of this Agreement shall constitute consent to the filing by City of a notice of violation against all lots within the Project, or to rescind the approval or otherwise revert the Project to acreage. iii. The failure of City to take an enforcement action with respect to a default or breach, or to declare a default or breach, shall not be construed as a waiver of that default or breach or any subsequent default or breach of Subdivider. iv. In addition to the remedies described in this Section, City reserves to itself all remedies available to it at law or in equity for breach of Subdivider’s obligations under this Agreement. The right of City to draw upon or utilize the Securities is additional to and not inlieu of any other remedy available to City. Subdivider agrees that the choice of remedy or remedies for Subdivider’s default shall be at the discretion of City.

D. Lien. In accordance with the Subdivision Laws (Gov. Code, § 66499), the recordation of this Agreement creates a lien attached to the Property underlying the Project and has the priority of a judgment lien in the amount necessary to complete the Improvements.

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Section 14. Other Agreements for Improvements or Reimbursement. Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed to establish any agreements with Subdivider or other parties for the apportionment or reimbursement of costs of rights-of-way, roadways, water or sewer mains, storm drainage, irrigation, or other Improvements required under this Agreement, nor shall anything in this Agreement commit City to any such apportionment or reimbursement. The Parties acknowledge and agree that all cost items and reimbursement descriptions contained in Exhibit B are for the only purpose of establishing the total cost of the Improvements under this Agreement.

Any such cost or reimbursement descriptions shall not bind any Party hereunder to providing or receiving reimbursement for the identified Improvement items from any community facilities district or area of benefit intended to serve the VOP area. Any such reimbursement to Subdivider for specific Improvement items shall be established by separate agreement between the Parties.

Section 15. Indemnity.

A. No Liability. City elected and appointed councils, commissions, officers, agents, employees and representatives (“City Agents”) shall not be liable or responsible for any third-party accident, loss, damage, or claim relating to the Improvements prior to completion of the Improvements. All such risks shall be the responsibility of and are hereby expressly assumed by Subdivider.

B. Indemnity/Hold Harmless. City and City Agents shall not be liable, and Subdivider agrees to indemnify, hold harmless, and defend City and City Agents from any and all liability for claims of damage which may arise as a result of any negligent acts or omissions by Subdivider or its agents, contractors, or employees in connection with the construction or operation of the Improvements. This indemnification and agreement to hold harmless shall extend to (i) injuries to persons and property, (ii) the taking of property resulting from the design or construction of the Project and the Improvements, (iii) the release or discharge of hazardous or toxic substances in the vicinity of the Property and the Improvements to be dedicated, and (iv) injuries to adjacent property owners as a consequence of the construction of the Project and the Improvements.

Acceptance by City of the Improvements shall not constitute an assumption by City of any responsibility for any damage covered by this Section. This provision shall survive termination of this Agreement for a period of two (2) years following the issuance of the Notice of Completion.

C. Indemnity of Project Approval. Subdivider shall defend, indemnify, and hold harmless City and City Agents from any claim, action, or proceeding to attack, set aside, void, or annul, any approval by City concerning the Project. Subdivider shall not be required to pay or perform any settlement unless the settlement is approved by Subdivider. City shall not be liable for approving, reviewing, checking, or correcting any plans or specifications or for approving, reviewing or inspecting any Improvements.

D. Design Defects. After acceptance of the Improvements, the Subdivider shall remain obligated to eliminate any defect in design or dangerous condition caused by a latent design or construction defect. Provisions of this paragraph shall remain in full force and effect for ten (10) years following acceptance by City of the Improvements. It is the intent of this Section that Subdivider shall be responsible for all liability for design and construction of the Improvements pursuant to this Agreement and that City shall not be liable for any negligence, Packet Pg. 388
nonfeasance, misfeasance, or malfeasance in approving, reviewing, checking, or correcting any plans or specifications or in approving, reviewing, or inspecting the Improvements.

Section 16. Insurance. Prior to commencing work on the Improvements, Subdivider shall present to City proof of insurance for the following policies, in a form acceptable to City. The insurance limits required by this Section may be satisfied by a combination of primary insurance and umbrella/excess insurance policies.

A. Commercial General Liability. No less than Two Million Dollars ($2,000,000.00) per occurrence and an aggregate limit of not less than Four Million Dollars ($4,000,000.00). Such insurance shall also:
i. Name City and City Agents as insured by endorsement with respect to performance of this Agreement. The coverage shall contain no special limitation on the scope of its protection afforded to City and City Agents.
ii. Be primary with respect to any insurance or self-insurance programs covering City and City Agents.

B. Automotive Liability Insurance. No less than Two Million Dollars ($2,000,000.00) for each occurrence. Such insurance shall also:
i. Name City and City Agents as insured by endorsement with respect to performance of this Agreement. The coverage shall contain no special limitation on the scope of its protection afforded to City and City Agents.
ii. Be primary with respect to any insurance or self-insurance programs covering City and City Agents; and
iii. Workers’ Compensation and Employers’ Liability Insurance.

Subdivider and its subcontractors shall, to the extent required by California law, maintain workers’ compensation insurance and, to the extent applicable, Employer’s Liability Insurance. The Employer’s Liability Insurance shall be no less than One Million Dollars ($1,000,000) per accident for bodily injury or disease.

Section 17. Notices. Any notice or communication required hereunder between City and Subdivider must be in writing, and may be given either personally, by registered or certified mail, or by Federal Express, UPS or other similar couriers providing overnight delivery. All notices and communications shall also be accompanied by a copy sent by email. If personally delivered, a notice shall be deemed to have been given when delivered to the Party to whom it is addressed. If given by registered or certified mail, such notice or communication shall be deemed to have been received on the first to occur of (a) actual receipt by any of the addressees specified below, or (b) three (3) days after a registered or certified letter containing such notice, properly addressed, is deposited in the United States mail. If given by Federal Express or similar courier, a notice or communication shall be deemed to have been received on the date delivered as shown on a receipt issued by the courier. Any Party hereto may at any time, by giving ten (10) days written notice to Packet Pg. 389
the other Party hereto, designate any other address to which such notice or communication shall be given. Notices or communications shall be given to the Parties at their addresses set forth below:

If to City: City of Patterson
1 Plaza Cir.

Patterson, CA 95363
Attn: City Manager
Email: [email protected]
with copies to: City of Patterson
1 Plaza Cir.

Patterson, CA 95363
Attn: City Clerk
Email: [email protected]
White Brenner LLP
1608 T Street
Sacramento, CA 95811
Attn: Nubia I. Goldstein
Email: [email protected]
If to Subdivider: __________________
__________________
__________________
Email: _________________
with copy to: __________________
__________________
__________________
Email: _________________
Section 18. General Provisions:

A. Recitals. The recitals above (“Recitals”) are true and correct and are hereby incorporated into and made part of this Agreement. In the event of any inconsistency between the Recitals and the Sections contained in this Agreement, the Sections shall prevail.

B. Governing Law; Venue. The validity, interpretation and performance of this Agreement shall be controlled by and construed pursuant to the laws of the State of California.

Venue for any legal proceedings initiated in connection with this Agreement shall be in the Superior Court for Stanislaus County.

C. Compliance with Laws. Subdivider, its agents, employees, contractors, and subcontractors shall comply with all federal, state and local laws in the performance of the work required by this Agreement, including but not limited to all Subdivision Laws, Improvement Packet Pg. 390
Standards, and all federal, state and local labor laws. Subdivider shall, at its expense, be responsible for obtaining all applicable licenses and permits.

D. Severability. If any provision of this Agreement is held invalid by a court of competent jurisdiction, or if any provision of this Agreement is rendered invalid or unenforceable according to the terms of any federal or state statute, the remaining provisions shall continue in full force and effect and shall be construed to give effect to the intent of this Agreement.

E. Waiver. The waiver by either Party of a breach by the other of any provision of this Agreement shall not constitute a continuing waiver or a waiver of any subsequent breach of the same or a different provision of this Agreement. No Party shall be deemed to have made any such waiver unless it is in writing and signed by the Party so waiving.

F. Integration. It is the intention of the Parties that this Agreement shall supersede any prior agreements, discussions, commitments, representations or agreements, written, electronic or oral, between the Parties with respect to the subject matter contained herein.

G. Mandatory and Permissive. “Shall” and “will” and “agrees” are mandatory. “May” or “can” are permissive.

H. No Agency Relationship. Neither Subdivider nor any of Subdivider’s agents, contractors, or employees are or shall be considered to be agents of City in connection with the performance of Subdivider’s obligations under this Agreement.

I. Assignment. Subdivider shall not assign any of its obligations under this Agreement without the prior written consent of City. City shall not release any Security given to secure the performance of any Improvements not assigned.

J. Covenant Running With the Land. All representations, covenants and warranties specifically set forth in this Agreement, by or on behalf of or for the benefit of any or all of the Parties, shall be binding upon and inure to the benefit of such Party, its successors and assigns.

K. Counterparts. This Agreement may be executed simultaneously and in several counterparts, each of which shall be deemed an original, but which together shall constitute one and the same instrument.

L. Further Acts. Parties agree that they shall cooperate in good faith to accomplish the objectives of this Agreement and to that end, agree to execute and deliver such other instruments or documents as may be necessary and convenient to fulfill the purposes and intentions of this Agreement.

M. Time is of the Essence. Time is of the essence in this Agreement in each covenant and term and condition herein.

N. Authority. Each Party executing this Agreement certifies, in their individual or corporate capacity that (i) they have legal or equitable title to the applicable parcels subject to Packet Pg. 391
this Agreement; (ii) they are authorized to enter into this Agreement, and (iii) they have complied with all requirements under state or federal law for such person or entity to execute this Agreement.

O. Construction and Interpretation. It is agreed and acknowledged by Subdivider that the provisions of this Agreement have been arrived at through negotiation, and that Subdivider has had a full and fair opportunity to review this Agreement and to have such provisions reviewed by legal counsel. Therefore, any rule of construction that any ambiguities are to be resolved against the drafting Party shall not apply in construing this Agreement.

P. Attorney Fees and Costs. If any action at law or in equity, including action for declaratory relief, is brought to enforce or interpret any provision of this Agreement, the prevailing Party shall be entitled to an award of reasonable attorney fees and costs, which may be set by the court in the same action or in a separate action brought for that purpose, in addition to any other relief to which such Party may be entitled.

Q. Modification; Approvals. This Agreement may be amended only by a written instrument signed by the Parties. Any approval or consent that is to be given by City pursuant to this Agreement shall be in writing, and any approval or consent that is not in writing shall not be binding on City.

R. Exhibits. All exhibits attached hereto are incorporated into and made part of this Agreement:

Exhibit A: Legal Description of Property
Exhibit B: Cost Estimate for Improvements
[ Signatures on following page ]
WITNESS WHEREOF, the Parties have executed this Agreement as of the dates signed below.

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CITY:

CITY OF PATTERSON,
a California municipal corporation
By:

Print:

City Manager
Date:
[ NOTARY ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REQUIRED ]
ATTEST:

By:

Print: ______
City Clerk
Date:

SUBDIVIDER:

VOP NORTH, LLC
A California Limited Liability Company
By:

Print:

Title:

Date: __________________
[ NOTARY ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REQUIRED ]
APPROVED AS TO FORM:

By:

Print: Nubia Goldstein, City Attorney
Date:

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EXHIBIT A
Legal Description of Property
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EXHIBIT B
Cost Estimate for Improvements
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EXHIBIT “A”
LEGAL DESCRIPTION OF SYCAMORE RANCH 2
PARCEL 1
Parcel No. 1 as described in the Certificate of Compliance recorded October 11, 2021, as DOC - 2021-0094986, Stanislaus County Records, situated in the State of California, County of Stanislaus, City of Patterson and described as follows:

A portion of Lots 52, 53 and 54 of Patterson Colony Sub-Tract No. 1, in the City of Patterson, County of Stanislaus, State of California, according to the Official Map thereof, filed in the Office of the Recorder of Stanislaus County, California on December 13, 1909 in Volume 4 of Maps, at Page 40, more particularly described as follows:

Commencing at the southeasterly corner of said Lot 52, said point being the intersection of the centerline of Sycamore Avenue and centerline of Olive Avenue; thence along said centerline of Olive Avenue and the southerly line of said Lot 52, South 60°00'00" West, 521.99 feet;
thence North 30°00'07" West, 727.62 feet to the POINT OF BEGINNING; thence along a line that lies 592.72 feet southerly of and parallel with the northerly line of said Lots 52 and 53, South 59°59'53" West, 758.27 feet; thence South 30°00'13" East, 690.10 feet to the northerly line of said Olive Avenue, said northerly line being 37.5 feet northerly of and parallel with said centerline of Olive Avenue; thence along said northerly line, South 60°00'00" West, 535.57 feet to a line that lies 165.00 feet easterly of and parallel with the westerly line of said Lot 54; thence along said parallel line, North 29°59'40" West, 264.00 feet; thence along a line that lies 301.50 feet northerly of and parallel with said centerline of Olive Avenue and the southerly line of said Lot 54, South 60°00'00" West, 165.00 feet to said westerly line of Lot 54;
thence along said westerly line, North 59°59'40" West, 1016.80 feet to the northwesterly corner of said Lot 54;
thence along the northerly line of said Lots 54, 53 and 52, North 59°59'53" East, 1458.64 feet to a point that bears North 30°00'07" West, 592.72 feet from the point of beginning; thence South 30°00'07" East, 592.72 feet to the point of beginning.

Contains 29.95 acres, more or less.

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Exhibit “A” Legal Description of Sycamore Ranch 2
PARCEL 2
Parcel No. 3 as described in the Certificate of Compliance recorded October 11, 2021, as DOC - 2021-0094986, Stanislaus County Records, situated in the State of California, County of Stanislaus, City of Patterson and described as follows:

Lot 52 of Patterson Colony Sub-Tract No. 1, in the City of Patterson, County of Stanislaus, State of California, according to the Official Map thereof, filed in the Office of the Recorder of Stanislaus County, California on December 13, 1909 in Volume 4 of Maps, at Page 40.

EXCEPTING THEREFROM the following described property:

Contains15.82 acres and 14.64 net acres, more or less.
___________________________________
Sean Harp, PLS 7823 Date

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CITY COUNCIL

AGENDA REPORT
TO: Mayor Clauzel and Members of the City Council
FROM: Fernando Ulloa, City Manager
BY: Xavier Guluarte, Interim Public Works Director
MEETING DATE: July 21, 2026
ITEM NO: 8.1
SUBJECT: Adopt Resolution No. 2026-48 Approving City of Patterson 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and Resolution No. 2026-49 Approving 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan and Authorize Staff to Submit the Plans to the California Department of Water Resources.

RECOMMENDATION
Motion to Adopt Resolution No. 2026-48 Approving City of Patterson 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and Resolution No. 2026-49 Approving 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan and Authorize Staff to Submit the Plans to the California Department of Water Resources.

BACKGROUND
The Urban Water Management Planning Act (California Water Code Division 6, Part 2.6) requires urban water suppliers serving more than 3,000 service connections or delivering more than 3,000 acre-feet of water annually to prepare and update an Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP or Plan) every five years. The UWMP serves as the City of Patterson’s (City) long-range water resources planning document, evaluating existing and future water demands, available water supplies, water reliability, demand management measures and supply resiliency strategies over a 25-year planning horizon.

The 2025 UWMP updates the City's previous plan to incorporate current water demand projections, planned growth, changes in regulatory requirements and implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The Plan also evaluates long-term water supply reliability and identifies strategies to address future groundwater sustainability, water quality and infrastructure needs.

As required by State law, the Draft 2025 UWMP was made available for public review and a public hearing was held on June 16, 2026. During the public review period, the City received two sets of written comments. No significant changes were made between the public draft and the final Plan.

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Both letters are included as Appendix F to the UWMP.

The Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP), a required component of the UWMP, has also been updated to comply with current State requirements. Although included within the UWMP, the WSCP is presented for separate adoption by resolution.

ANALYSIS
The 2025 UWMP evaluates the City's existing and projected water supplies, water demands, and long-term water reliability through a 25-year planning horizon. The Plan incorporates updated population and demand projections, reflects recent annexation approvals and addresses current regulatory requirements, including implementation of SGMA and the Delta-Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan.

The City currently relies entirely on groundwater from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin. The UWMP identifies that reductions in Lower Aquifer pumping required under SGMA will necessitate continued diversification of the City's water supply portfolio. To address these challenges, the Plan identifies strategies including continued groundwater production, development of the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project for increased groundwater recharge, evaluation of recycled water opportunities, additional stormwater capture projects, potential future treated surface water supplies and continued implementation of water conservation and demand management measures.

The UWMP also addresses ongoing water quality challenges, including compliance with the State's Hexavalent Chromium (Chromium-6) Maximum Contaminant Level and continued monitoring of nitrate and 1,2,3-Trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP). These considerations have been incorporated into the City's long-term planning efforts to maintain a reliable and sustainable water supply.

The WSCP establishes the City's response framework for water shortages and drought conditions, including staged response actions, demand reduction measures, communication strategies and operational responses during water shortages.

Adoption of the UWMP and WSCP satisfies the City's statutory planning requirements and establishes the framework for future water resource planning. Following adoption, staff will submit the UWMP and WSCP to the California Department of Water Resources as required by State law.

FISCAL IMPACT
Preparation of the 2025 UWMP and WSCP was funded through Water Enterprise budget.

Adoption of the plans does not authorize construction or implementation of capital projects.

However, the UWMP identifies future water supply, treatment, recharge and infrastructure projects that may require significant capital investment. These projects will be evaluated individually through future budget processes, environmental review, grant opportunities, development impact funding and future City Council approvals.

Staff will continue pursuing regional partnerships and external funding opportunities to help offset future implementation costs associated with groundwater treatment, SGMA compliance, water supply diversification and recharge infrastructure.

ATTACHMENTS
Packet Pg. 422
1) Resolution No. 2026-48 Approving 2025 Urban Water Management Plan 2) Resolution No. 2026-49 Approving 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan 3) 2025 Urban Water Management Plan-Final
4) 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan- Final
5) Public Hearing Presentation from June 16, 2026
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RESOLUTION NO. 2026-48

A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PATTERSON APPROVING THE 2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN AND AUTHORIZING ITS SUBMITTAL TO THE

CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
WHEREAS, the Urban Water Management Planning Act (California Water Code Division 6, Part 2.6, commencing with Section 10610) requires every urban water supplier serving more than 3,000 service connections or delivering more than 3,000 acre-feet of water annually to prepare and adopt an Urban Water Management Plan every five years; and
WHEREAS, the City of Patterson is an urban water supplier subject to the requirements of the Urban Water Management Planning Act; and
WHEREAS, the City has prepared the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan in accordance with the requirements of the California Water Code; and
WHEREAS, the Draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan was made available for public review, and a duly noticed public hearing was held by the City Council on June 16, 2026, in accordance with California Water Code Section 10642; and
WHEREAS, the City Council has reviewed and considered the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and all public comments received.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Patterson as follows:

Section 1. The foregoing recitals are true and correct and are incorporated herein by this reference.

Section 2. The City Council hereby approves and adopts the City of Patterson 2025 Urban Water Management Plan.

Section 3. The City Manager, or designee, is authorized and directed to submit the adopted 2025 Urban Water Management Plan to the California Department of Water Resources and to take all actions necessary to implement this Resolution in accordance with applicable law.

The foregoing resolution was introduced at a regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Patterson held on the 21st of July 2026 by _________________, who moved its adoption, which motion was duly seconded by _________________, and the resolution adopted by the following roll call vote:

AYES:

NOES:

EXCUSED:

APPROVED:

Michael Clauzel
Mayor of the City of Patterson
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ATTEST:

DATED:

City Clerk of the City of Patterson
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RESOLUTION NO. 2026-49

A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PATTERSON APPROVING THE 2025 WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN
WHEREAS, California Water Code Section 10632 requires every Urban Water Management Plan to include a Water Shortage Contingency Plan; and
WHEREAS, the City of Patterson has prepared the 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan in accordance with the requirements of the California Water Code; and WHEREAS, the 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan establishes the City's response framework for water shortages, including staged demand reduction actions, communication strategies, and operational measures to maintain essential water service during water shortage conditions; and WHEREAS, the Draft Water Shortage Contingency Plan was made available for public review as part of the Draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan, and a duly noticed public hearing was held by the City Council on June 16, 2026; and
WHEREAS, the City Council has reviewed and considered the 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan and all public comments received.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Patterson as follows:

Section 1. The foregoing recitals are true and correct and are incorporated herein by this reference.

Section 2. The City Council hereby approves and adopts the City of Patterson 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan.

Section 3. The City Manager, or designee, is authorized and directed to submit the adopted Water Shortage Contingency Plan, as applicable, with the Urban Water Management Plan to the California Department of Water Resources and to take all actions necessary to implement this Resolution.

The foregoing resolution was introduced at a regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Patterson held on the 21st of July 2026 by _________________, who moved its adoption, which motion was duly seconded by ________________, and the resolution adopted by the following roll call vote:

AYES:

NOES:

EXCUSED:

APPROVED:

Michael Clauzel
Mayor of the City of Patterson
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ATTEST:

DATED:

City Clerk of the City of Patterson
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City of Patterson
2025 Urban Water Management
Plan & Water Shortage
Contingency Plan
Presenters:

Maria Encinas
Chris Hewes
June 16, 2026
Packet Pg. 428
Update on the City’s 2025 Urban Water
Management Plan (UWMP)
§ The City is classified as an Urban Water Supplier1 and must therefore comply with the State of California
Urban Water Management Planning Act and prepare
and submit a compliant UWMP every five years.
§ The City must prepare and submit its 2025 UWMP to
the State by July 1, 2026.
1 Water suppliers that serve more than 3,000 acre-feet of water supply on an annual basis or serve more than 3,000 water connections)
Packet Pg. 429
Update on the City’s 2025 Urban Water
Management Plan (UWMP)
§ The City currently serves approximately 25,000 residents through about 8,000 water service connections.
§ The plan acknowledges ongoing considerations, such
as:
oGroundwater sustainability requirements under SGMA
oWater quality regulations including Chromium-6
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UWMP Organization
2025 UWMP
Chapter Number 2025 UWMP Chapter Title
1 Introduction and Purpose
2 Plan Preparation
3 System Description
4 Water Use Characterization
5 SBX7-7 Baseline and Targets
6 Water Supply Characterization
7 Water Service Reliability and Drought Risk Assessment 8 Water Shortage Contingency Plan*
9 Demand Management Measures
10 Plan Preparation/Submittal/Implementation
*Chapter 8 points to a standalone document as an appendix Packet Pg. 431
Where UWMP Fits Into City Water Planning Efforts
Water
Planning
2025 UWMP
(updated
every 5 years)
Integrated
Regional
Water
Management
Plan
Groundwater
Sustainability
Plan
Water Master
Plan
Future supply reliability to meet
future demands (all year types)
Regional water
projects and
programs meeting
local and regional
Sustainable Groundwater needs
Management Act compliance,
regional collaboration, and operating
within pumping restrictions
Water Portfolio
options and
priorities to meet
future demands
+
Pumping
Reduction
Plan
Packet Pg. 432
Development Process
Update Technical Data
Finalize and Submit
Prepare Draft documents with public review
• Future demand projections
• Water portfolio updates
• Water supply reliability assessment
• Water Shortage Contingency Plan Updates
• Demand Management Measures
•Prepare DWR compliant 2025 UWMP & WSCP
•Involve interested parties and water users
•Public Notification
•2025 documents available on City website
• Receive public comments
• Prepare & submit final 2025
documents by 7/1
You
are
here!
Adopt
• Formally adopt by City
Council on 7/21
• Immediately submit
amended plan
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Interested Party Outreach

1. Public Notifications (2)
▫ Notice of intent to prepare 2025 UWMP and draft review notifications provided to interested parties
▫ County and local agencies engaged in Groundwater Sustainability Plan implementation process

2. Draft 2025 UWMP: 30-day public review period [May 15 – June 16, 2026] ▫ Available on City website to public and interested parties for review and comment

3. Public Notices for today’s public hearing
▫ Public notices posted on City website and in local newspaper 14 and 7-days prior to public hearing
▫ Social media posting

4. City Council Meeting: today June 16
▫ Council update and 2025 UWMP public hearing

5. Final 2025 UWMP
▫ Available for viewing and download on City website to interested parties Packet Pg. 434
Highlighted Changes from 2020 UWMP
1 2 3
Increased Demand Reduced Pumping
Capacity
Reliability Changes
Significantly more demands
from the Zacharias-Baldwin
Development
Significant reductions to
groundwater pumping
capacity due to Northern
Delta-Mendota Pumping
Reduction Program, resulting
in an expanded water supply
portfolio
Changes from #1 and #2
result in changes to reliability
analysis (conditions under dry
year scenarios)
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Demand Projection (potable + non-potable)
Existing & future demands from
City’s existing service area
Demands from Zacharias Baldwin
Development (1,824 AFY by 2045)
1 Year Existing
Service
Area
Zacharias
Baldwin
Development
2025 4,390 0
2030 4,347 457
2035 4,451 913
2040 4,567 1,370
2045 4,693 1,824
2050 4,824 1,824
Units in AFY
Packet Pg. 436
Supply Portfolio (Potable)
2,626 AFY - Lower Aquifer
groundwater pumping
based on strict limitation
from Pumping Reduction
Plan
1,550 AFY –
Del Puerto
Creek Recharge
and Recovery
Project
0 – 300+ AFY – Upper
Aquifer groundwater
pumping with treatment Volume to be determined –
Long-term: Surface water
expansion
Non-Potable: 2025 demands (3,902 AFY)
2050 demands (5,414 AFY)
2 Packet Pg. 437
Supply Portfolio (Non-Potable)
2025 demands (488 AFY)
2050 demands (1,234 AFY)
677 AFY – Upper Aquifer groundwater
pumping from 1 well
Volume to be determined – Short-term: As-needed
purchase of surface water for non-potable uses
2 Packet Pg. 438
Supply Reliability
Groundwater pumping limitations mean the City will be:
3 Will require more reliance on the City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan to call for reductions in demands in dry years.

Calls for 10%-20% demand reductions projected for
years 3-5 of a multi-year dry period
Less reliant on
“drought-proof”
groundwater
More reliant on surface water
supplies that are subject to
reductions under dry conditions.
&
Packet Pg. 439
4,883
Demands Supplies Demands
Supplies Demand reductions
needed according to
Water Shortage
Contingency Plan
4,883
Demands
Less surface water
supplies available
Example:
2035 projected potable shortage
Packet Pg. 440
Example:
2050 projected conditions with new surface water supply 5,414
Demands
Supplies
Demands
Supplies
No demand
reductions necessary
Demands
Less surface water
supplies available
Less surface water
supplies available 5,414
Up to
Packet Pg. 441
Water Shortage Contingency Plan
§ Standalone document (appendix to UWMP)
§ Operational plan that guides City response to shortage scenarios § Six stages, each with a variety of water use prohibitions and measures implemented by stage
Shortage
Level
Percent
Shortage
1 Up to 10%
2 Up to 20%
3 Up to 30%
4 Up to 40%
5 Up to 50%
6 >50%
Example shortage response actions:
§ Expand public information campaign
§ Limit landscape irrigation to 2 days/week
§ Implement drought rate structure
§ Penalties for excessive water use
Packet Pg. 442
Demand Management Measures
Water Waste
Prevention
Ordinances
Metering Public Education &
Outreach
Distribution Water
Loss Other Measures
§ Existing ordinance
continues to be
active and enforced
as needed.
§ Advanced Meter
Infrastructure
installation
completed in 2024
§ EyeOnWater
customer portal
§ Conservation Guides
and tips available on
website and social
media
§ EyeOnWater
customer portal tips
§ Education booths at
fairs and school
events
§ Citywide Leak
Detection Survey
§ Annual water loss
audits submitted to
Department of
Water Resources
§ Turfgrass
replacement rebate
program
§ High-efficiency toilet
rebate program
§ Water Use Surveys
Year-round activities to reduce water use that have helped reduce perperson water use over the long-term.

Packet Pg. 443
Next Steps
§ Review public comment and incorporate edits to draft Plan § Submit Final Plan to DWR before 7/1/2026
§ City Council Meeting #2 [7/21/2026] to formally approve UWMP & WSCP
§ Submit adopted UWMP/WSCP to Department of Water
Resources
§ Submit copies of documents to California State Library within 30 days
§ Make final documents publicly available online within 30 days Packet Pg. 444
Public Comment
Packet Pg. 445
City of
Patterson
Urban Water
Management
Plan 2025
June 2026
woodardcurran.com
95 Third Street | 2
nd Floor
San Francisco, California 94103
800.426.4262
Packet Pg. 446
City of Patterson (0013240.00) ii Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS.............................................................................................VI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................... VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................ES-1

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW .................................................................................................1-1

1.1 Urban Water Management Planning/California Water Code............................................................1-1

1.1.1 Urban Water Management Planning Act (Act) ........................................................................1-1

1.1.2 Water Conservation Bill of 2009....................................................................................................1-1

1.1.3 Water Bills of 2018..............................................................................................................................1-2

1.1.4 Changes from 2020 UWMP ............................................................................................................1-2

1.2 Urban Water Management Plan Organization........................................................................................1-2

2. PLAN PREPARATION......................................................................................................................2-1

2.1 Plan Preparation ..................................................................................................................................................2-1

2.2 Basis For Preparing A Plan...............................................................................................................................2-1

2.3 Planning and Compliance/Year Type/Units of Measure .....................................................................2-2

2.4 Regional Planning and Coordination..........................................................................................................2-2

2.5 Coordination and Outreach............................................................................................................................2-4

3. SYSTEM DESCRIPTION ...................................................................................................................3-1

3.1 General Description............................................................................................................................................3-1

3.2 Service Area Boundary ......................................................................................................................................3-2

3.3 Service Area Climate ..........................................................................................................................................3-3

3.4 Service Area Population and Demographics............................................................................................3-4

3.5 Land Uses Within Service Area ......................................................................................................................3-6

4. WATER USE CHARACTERIZATION ................................................................................................4-1

4.1 Past and Current Water Use By Sector.......................................................................................................4-1

4.2 Projected Water Use By Sector......................................................................................................................4-3

4.3 Distribution System Water Loss.....................................................................................................................4-6

4.4 Passive Water Savings and Low-Income Housing .................................................................................4-7

4.4.1 Future Water Savings ........................................................................................................................4-7

4.4.2 Water Use For Lower Income Households ...............................................................................4-9

4.5 Climate Change Considerations....................................................................................................................4-9

4.5.1 City Climate Change - Adaptation Actions............................................................................ 4-10

5. SB X7-7 BASELINE, TARGETS, AND 2020 COMPLIANCE .............................................................5-1

6. WATER SUPPLY CHARACTERIZATION..........................................................................................6-1

6.1 Water Supply Analysis Overview...................................................................................................................6-1

6.2 Groundwater.........................................................................................................................................................6-3

6.2.1 Basin Description.................................................................................................................................6-4

6.2.2 Groundwater Management ............................................................................................................6-5

6.2.3 Historical Pumping .............................................................................................................................6-7 Packet Pg. 447
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6.3 Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project.................................................................................6-7

6.4 Wastewater and Recycled Water Supply...................................................................................................6-8

6.5 Future Water Supply ..........................................................................................................................................6-3

6.6 Climate Change Considerations....................................................................................................................6-1

6.7 Energy Intensity ...................................................................................................................................................6-1

7. WATER SERVICE RELIABILITY AND DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT ...........................................7-1

7.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................................7-1

7.2 Water Service Reliability Assessment..........................................................................................................7-2

7.3 Drought Risk Assessment................................................................................................................................7-7

7.4 Regional Supply Reliability..............................................................................................................................7-9

8. WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN ...................................................................................8-1

9. DEMAND MANAGEMENT MEASURES ..........................................................................................9-1

9.1 DMM Implementation Over The Past Five Years....................................................................................9-1

9.1.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Program ...............................................................9-3

9.1.2 Public Outreach and Education.....................................................................................................9-3

9.1.3 Other Demand Management Measures ....................................................................................9-3

9.2 Planned Implementation To Achieve Water Use Targets ...................................................................9-4

9.3 Future/Ongoing Conservation Requirements .........................................................................................9-5

10. PLAN ADOPTION, SUBMITTAL AND IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................ 10-1

10.1 Inclusion of 2025 Data ................................................................................................................................... 10-1

10.2 Notice of Public Hearing............................................................................................................................... 10-1

10.3 Public Hearing and Adoption...................................................................................................................... 10-3

10.4 Plan Submittal ................................................................................................................................................... 10-3

10.5 Public Availability ............................................................................................................................................. 10-3

10.6 Amending An Adopted UWMP or WSCP............................................................................................... 10-3

10.7 2025 UWMP Implementation...................................................................................................................... 10-4 Packet Pg. 448
City of Patterson (0013240.00) iv Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
TABLES
Table 1-1: Urban Water Management Plan Chapters
Table 1-2: Urban Water Management Plan Appendices
Table 2-1: Public Water Systems (DWR Table 2-1)
Table 2-2: Plan Identification (DWR Table 2-2)
Table 2-3: Supplier Identification (DWR Table 2-3)
Table 2-4: Regional Planning Overview
Table 2-5: Water Supplier Information Exchange (DWR Table 2-4) Table 3-1: Non-Potable Water Program Potential Benefits Table 3-2: Monthly Average Climate Summary (2016-2025)
Table 3-3: Current and Projected Population (DWR Table 3-1) Table 3-4: Socioeconomic and Demographic Information Summary Table 4-1: Demands for Potable and Non-Potable Water – 2025 Actual (DWR Table 4-1) Table 4-2: Zacharias-Baldwin Development Demands by Sector Table 4-3: Demands for Potable and Non-Potable Water - Projected (DWR TABLE 4-2) Table 4-4: Water Loss Audit Reporting (DWR Table 4-5)
Table 4-5: Progress Towards 2028 Water Loss Standard (DWR Table 4-6) Table 4-6: Inclusion in Water Use Projections (DWR Table 4-3) Table 4-7: Parameters Used in Indoor Water Savings Fixtures Table 4-8: Parameters Used in Indoor Water Savings Behaviors Table 4-9: Passive Water Savings Projection (DWR Table 4-4) Table 5-1: SB X7-7 Target Progress (DWR Table 5-1)
Table 6-1: Water Supply Planning Factors and Considerations Table 6-2: Groundwater Volume Pumped (DWR Table 6-1)
Table 6-3: Wastewater Collected Within Service Area in 2025 (DWR Table 6-2) Table 6-4: Wastewater Treatment and Discharge Within Service Area in 2025 (DWR Table 6-3) Table 6-5: Recycled Water Direct Beneficial Uses Within Service Area (DWR Table 6-4) Table 6-6: 2020 UWMP Recycled Water Use Projection Compared to 2025 Actual (DWR Table 6-5) Table 6-7: Methods to Expand Future Recycled Water Use (DWR Table 6-6) Table 6-8: Expected Future Water Supply Projects or Programs (DWR Table 6-7) Table 6-9: Water Supplies – Actual (DWR Table 6-8)
Table 6-10: Water Supplies — Projected (DWR Table 6-9)
Table 6-11: Water Supply Energy Intensity (calendar year 2024, DWR Table O-1B) Table 6-12: Wasterwater Energy Intensity (Calendar Year 2024, DWR Table O-2) Table 7-1: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-2) Table 7-2: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 7-3: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Table 7-4: Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-3) Table 7-5: Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 7-6: Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Packet Pg. 449
City of Patterson (0013240.00) v Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
Table 7-7: Multiple Dry Year Scenario Factors
Table 7-8: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-4) Table 7-9: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 7-10: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Table 7-11: Drought Risk Assessment (DWR Table 7-5)
Table 7-12: Summary of Regional Water SUpply Reliability Actions Table 9-1: Summary of Demand Management Measures
Table 9-2: Summary of Planned DMMs
Table 10-1: Notification to Cities and Counties (DWR Table 10-1)

FIGURES
Figure 3-1: City of Patterson Service Area Boundary
Figure 3-2: City of Patterson Land Uses Within Service Area Figure 4-1: Total Water Use by Sector (2025)
Figure 4-2: Gross Per Capita Trends (2021-2025)
Figure 6-1: Delta-Mendota Subbasin

APPENDICES
Appendix A: Public Notices and Resolutions
Appendix B: 2025 UWMP DWR Data Tables
Appendix C: DWR Checklist
Appendix D: Considering Climate Change Impacts
Appendix E: City of Patterson Water Shortage Contingency Plan 2025 Appendix F: Public Comments and Response
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LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AB Assembly Bill
ACS American Community Survey
Act Urban Water Management Planning Act
AF Acre-feet
AFY Acre-feet per year
AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure
AWWA American Water Works Association
BMP Best Management Practice
CIMIS
California Irrigation Management Information
System
CIP Capital Improvement Plan
City City of Patterson
Code Municipal Code
CUWCC California Urban Water Conservation Council
CVP Central Valley Project
CWC California Water Code
DDW Department of Drinking Water
DMC Delta-Mendota Canal
DMM Demand Management Measure
DOF Department of Finance
DWR Department of Water Resources
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ETo Reference Evapotranspiration
°F Degrees Fahrenheit
gpcd Gallons per capita per day
gpscd Gallons per service connection per day
GSA Groundwater Sustainability Agency
GSP Groundwater Sustainability Plan
IRWMP Integrated Regional Water Management Plan
MCL Maximum Contaminant Level
MHI Median Household Income
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MOA Memorandum of Agreement
NPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System
NPWP Non-Potable Water Program
PRP Pumping Reduction Plan
SB Senate Bill
SGMA Sustainable Groundwater Management Act
SLDMWA San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority
SWP State Water Project
SWRCB State Water Resources Control Board
TDS Total dissolved solids
UWMP Urban Water Management Plan
WQCF Water Quality Control Facility
WSCP Water Shortage Contingency Plan
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
City of Patterson Staff
Fernando Ulloa, City Manager
Mike Willett, Assistant City Manager
Maria Encinas, Water Resources Program Manager
Larrisa Camara, Management Analyst
Joel Andrews, City Planner
Consultant Assistance
Woodard & Curran
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The City of Patterson is a retail water service provider located in the Central Valley within Stanislaus County between Interstate 5 and the San Joaquin River. The City is an urban water supplier with approximately 7,694 water connections that is currently completely reliant on local groundwater sources from the DeltaMendota Subbasin in the San Joaquin Valley Basin for its water supply. The City currently provides more than 4,000 acre-feet per year (AFY) to meet its water needs through a network of local water wells tapping into the shallow and deep aquifer system.

The City’s 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) builds upon its previous UWMPs which focused on quantifying the safe yield of the groundwater aquifer system, identifying alternative water sources (recycled water and storm water sources) to consider adding to its future water supply portfolio, and implementing effective demand management measures to reliably meet its gallons per capita per day (gpcd) water use targets over the planning horizon. This 2025 UWMP incorporates new information from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) that was developed and implemented in response to the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), with more detail in Chapter 6.

The City expects to see significant urban growth over the UWMP planning horizon, with the 2024 approved annexation of two mixed-use developments totaling 1,300 acres into its service area (the Zacharias and Baldwin development) which consist of more than 5,000 dwelling units, plus non-residential space. The City has, and continues to, coordinate its land use and water planning to ensure future water supplies will be adequate to meet future water demand projections. The City is also an active stakeholder in regional resource planning efforts related to SGMA compliance and Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP) implementation.

The City’s groundwater has potential water quality challenges that could impact the cost of developing future groundwater supplies. Hexavalent Chromium (Chromium VI or Chrome 6) concentrations have been observed above the 10 µg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standard established in 2024. The City has a Compliance Plan in place with the California Division of Drinking Water (DDW) and is currently evaluating treatment options to address Chrome 6 loads. The City is also monitoring nitrate and 1,2,3-Trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP) levels that have the potential to impact the City’s current groundwater supplies.

The City’s future water supply portfolio will continue to include groundwater pumping (potable and nonpotable), though Lower Aquifer pumping will be significantly reduced to be in compliance with pumping reductions required by the Northern Delta-Mendota Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP). The City plans to implement the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project which will include groundwater recharge of new stormwater and surface water supplies. Additional water supply sources could include recycled water, treated surface water, additional stormwater capture, recharge of additional purchased surface supply, and additional conservation. The City could benefit from improvements made on Del Puerto Creek through implementation of the Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir Project (sponsored by other agencies) that could increase future groundwater recharge to the subbasin. This diverse water portfolio is needed to ensure the reliability of City’s future water supply to meet system build-out demands.

The City annually updates its Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) based on the latest WMP, which will lead to project implementation of priority actions to reliably meet future water supply needs over the UWMP planning horizon.

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1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
The City of Patterson (City) is classified as an urban water supplier (UWS) and therefore must comply with the Urban Water Management Planning Act (Act). This Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) has been prepared to comply with the 2025 UWMP requirements as defined in the California Water Code (CWC).

The intent of an UWMP is to ensure that an UWS has adequate water supplies to meet future water demands projected over the next 20-25 years. The City’s 2025 UWMP evolves from foundational resource management planning work completed in the City’s 2010, 2015, and 2020 UWMPs, and follows the guidelines outlined in the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) 2025 Urban Water Management Plan Guidebook (Guidebook), published January 2026. This chapter discusses the purpose and requirements of a UWMP and summarizes the content of the 2025 UWMP document.

1.1 Urban Water Management Planning/California Water Code

1.1.1 Urban Water Management Planning Act (Act)
The Act was created by Assembly Bill (AB) 797 which was signed into law by Governor Deukmejian on September 21, 1983. The Act requires that urban water suppliers (i.e., municipal water suppliers providing water for municipal purposes to more than 3,000 customers or supplying more than 3,000 acre-feet (AF) annually) prepare and adopt Urban Water Management Plans containing certain specified elements.

The Act was amended by AB 2661, which was signed into law by Governor Deukmejian on July 18, 1990.

AB 2661 deleted the January 1, 1991 termination date specified in AB 797. AB 2661 also expanded the elements which are to be addressed in Urban Water Management Plans.

The Act was also amended by AB 1869, which was signed by Governor Wilson on October 13, 1991. AB 1869 requires that urban water suppliers update (not just review) Urban Water Management Plans every five years to include projections of both potable and recycled water use, identify current reclamation practices, address additional alternative conservation measures, and describe findings, actions, and planning related to a number of water conservation and reclamation measures.

The Act was further amended by AB 11X signed by Governor Wilson on October 13, 1991. AB 11X requires that urban water suppliers prepare an Urban Water Shortage Contingency Plan as an amendment to its Urban Water Management Plan. Water Shortage Contingency Plans must be updated every five years and specify proposed measures for response to short- and long-term water shortages.

1.1.2 Water Conservation Bill of 2009
On November 10, 2009, the state legislature passed the Water Conservation Bill of 2009 (also referred to as Senate Bill (SB) X7-7) as a water conservation component to the Delta legislative package. The bill sought a 20 percent statewide reduction in urban per capita water use in California by December 31, 2020. SB X7-7 requires that each retail agency preparing a 2010 UWMP to calculate baseline water use as well as an interim (for 2015) and final (for 2020) water use reduction target.

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1.1.3 Water Bills of 2018
The Act was most recently amended in 2018 by AB 1668 and SB 606 which call for standards on indoor and outdoor residential water use; commercial, industrial, and institutional (CII) water use; and water loss control standards. In addition, these bills intend to improve water shortage planning and readiness to better manage future drought conditions by standardizing Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP) elements.

1.1.4 Changes from 2020 UWMP
Summarized below are the major additions and changes to the CWC since the City’s 2020 UWMP was prepared. Compared to the more significant changes introduced in previous UWMP cycles, the changes from 2020 to 2025 are relatively minimal.
• Nonfunctional Turf [CWC Section 10608.14 and Section 110]. Prohibits the use of potable water for irrigation of nonfunctional turf, with phase-in of prohibitions across 2027-2031 based on various property types.
• Urban Water Use Objectives and Water Use Reporting [CWC Section 10609.4]: Codified the indoor residential water use standard as part of the “Making Conservation a California Way of Life” regulations.

Neither of the CWC changes above relate to any specific requirements within the 2025 UWMP.

1.2 Urban Water Management Plan Organization
The City’s 2025 UWMP has been prepared in accordance with the recommended table of contents contained in the Guidebook including referenced appendices. The City’s 2025 UWMP document includes the following chapters containing the required information for a DWR compliant plan.

TABLE 1-1: URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN CHAPTERS
2025 UWMP
Chapter Number 2025 UWMP Chapter Title
1 Introduction and Purpose
2 Plan Preparation
3 System Description
4 Water Use Characterization
5 SBX7-7 Baseline and Targets
6 Water Supply Characterization
7 Water Service Reliability and Drought Risk Assessment 8 Water Shortage Contingency Plan
9 Demand Management Measures
10 Plan Preparation/Submittal/Implementation
The City’s 2025 UWMP also includes various appendices as recommended in the Guidebook covering the water code requirements, compliance checklist, DWR Data Tables, and related information required in a Packet Pg. 456
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complete 2025 UWMP. The Bay-Delta appendix is not included since the City does not rely on Delta related water sources.

TABLE 1-2: URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN APPENDICES
2025 UWMP Appendix 2025 UWMP Appendix Title
A Public Notices and Resolutions
B 2025 UWMP DWR Data Tables
C DWR Checklist
D Considering Climate Change Impacts
E City of Patterson Water Shortage Contingency Plan 2025 F Public Comment and Response
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2. PLAN PREPARATION
The chapter provides information on the development of the City’s 2025 UWMP including the basis for plan development, compliance strategy, agency coordination and outreach efforts.

2.1 Plan Preparation
This UWMP updates the City’s 2020 UWMP and includes all information necessary to meet the 2025 requirements of CWC, Division 6, Part 2.6. The City acts as an urban, retail public water system with 7,694 water service connections and providing more than 4,000 AF of water supplied annually (Table 2-1).

TABLE 2-1: PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS (DWR TABLE 2-1)
Public Water System
Number
Public Water System
Name
Number of Municipal
Connections 2025
Volume of Water
Supplied 2025
CA5010017 City of Patterson 7,694 4,033
TOTAL 7,694 4,033
NOTES: Volume of water supplied in acre-feet excluding non-potable irrigation use (source City of Patterson Public Works Department).

2.2 Basis For Preparing A Plan
The City is an individual retail UWS that is responsible for preparing its 2025 UWMP in accordance with Guidebook requirements. As summarized in Table 2-2, the UWMP has been prepared as an Individual UWMP. The UWMP has been prepared in accordance with the recommended table of contents contained in the DWR 2025 Guidebook including referenced appendices.

TABLE 2-2: PLAN IDENTIFICATION (DWR TABLE 2-2)
Select One Type of Plan Name of Regional Alliance or
RUWMP
 Individual UWMP
If Water Supplier is also a member of a SB X7-7
Regional Alliance, select name from the drop-down.
 Regional Urban Water Management Plan (RUWMP)
If Supplier selected RUWMP, select name from the
drop-down.

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2.3 Planning and Compliance/Year Type/Units of Measure
The City of Patterson is a retail groundwater only service provider located in the Central Valley within Stanislaus County. The City is an UWS with 7,694 water connections reliant on local groundwater sources from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin (in the San Joaquin Valley Basin) for its water supply. The City currently provides more than 4,000 AFY to meet its water needs through a network of local wells tapping into the subbasin aquifer system. The City does not provide water to any major water user outside of its service area and prepared this UWMP individually (Table 2-2) including interested parties in the process as discussed in Section 2.5.

This information and data used to prepare the City’s 2025 UWMP were prepared based on a calendar year basis and water volumes are presented in units of AF as summarized in Table 2-3 below.

TABLE 2-3: SUPPLIER IDENTIFICATION (DWR TABLE 2-3)
Type of Supplier (select one or both)
Supplier is a wholesaler
Supplier is a retailer
Fiscal or Calendar Year (select one)
UWMP Tables are in calendar years
UWMP Tables are in fiscal years
If using fiscal years provide month and date that the fiscal year begins (mm/dd)
Units of measure used in UWMP (select from drop down)
Unit AF
NOTES: City water production data is collected in million gallons and converted to AF, and customer demand data is collected in CCF and converted to AF for the 2025 UWMP.

2.4 Regional Planning and Coordination
The City participates in regional land use and water resource planning activities and coordinates with those organizations on a regular basis. The City’s 2025 UWMP has been prepared in accordance with the DWR 2025 UWMP Guidebook provisions and considers regional implications to its land and water planning processes. The City’s water resource planning efforts are coordinated with on-going large scale regional collaborations with the goal of managing limited water resources in a sustainable manner. The City’s 2025 UWMP reflects the status and intent of regional policies and programs being implemented consistent with Packet Pg. 459
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agreed to resource document parameters. An overview of relevant on-going regional planning activities is summarized below. Periodically resource documents are updated to reflect implementation progress, new information, and/or state requirements. Stakeholder engagement is included throughout the regional planning process.

TABLE 2-4: REGIONAL PLANNING OVERVIEW
Regional Planning Resource
Document
Regional Planning Focus Regional Planning
Organization
Delta-Mendota Subbasin
Groundwater Sustainability Plan
(GSP) (adopted 2024) and
Northern Delta-Mendota
Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP)
GSAs in high and medium
priority groundwater basins were
required to submit a GSP to
DWR that provides for
sustainably managed
groundwater that meets SGMA
requirements. The adopted plan
outlines how GSAs will
implement, manage, and
measure specific actions within
their governance area for the
health and viability of the
subbasins including safe yield
(see more detail in Chapter 6).

Northern Delta-Mendota
Groundwater Sustainability
Agency (GSA) Group and
associated Northern DeltaMendota Region
Management Committee –
the City of Patterson GSA is a
participating member of both
the GSA group and
committee.
2019 Westside-San Joaquin
IRWMP (adopted and submitted
to DWR for approval)
A collaborative effort to manage
all regional water resources.

IRWM crosses jurisdictional,
watershed, and political
boundaries, and involves
multiple agencies, interested
parties, individuals, and groups.

The goal is to address the issues
and differing perspectives of all
entities involved through
mutually beneficial solutions.

Westside-San Joaquin
Integrated Regional Water
Management Group – City is a
stakeholder
City General Plan, Stanislaus
County General Plan, Regional
Plan Updates LAFCO Service
Reviews State Land Use Policy
Land Use Policy and Decisions
City of Patterson
Stanislaus County
LAFCO
State of California
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2.5 Coordination and Outreach
The City encouraged public participation in the development of its 2025 UWMP and WSCP and provided opportunities for public review and comment on the draft documents. In April 2026, the City distributed letters to its regional interested parties to inform them of the City’s intent to prepare its 2025 UWMP and WSCP and welcome any comments or questions that may arise in the plan development process. Key interested parties notified included Stanislaus County and members of the local Groundwater Sustainability Agency (agricultural and urban entities). The City did not notify any wholesale suppliers as it serves as its own water supplier, as noted in Table 2-5. The City made the draft 2025 UWMP and WSCP documents available for interested parties review in a timely manner on the City’s website during the 2025 UWMP development process. Additional information regarding outreach and public participation is included in Chapter 10 of this plan.

TABLE 2-5: WATER SUPPLIER INFORMATION EXCHANGE (DWR TABLE 2-4) The retail Supplier has informed the following wholesale supplier(s) of projected water use.

Wholesale Water Supplier Name
N/A
NOTES: The City of Patterson serves as its own water supplier.

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3. SYSTEM DESCRIPTION
This chapter provides a general description of the City of Patterson’s water supply system, including a description of the service area, climate, future population projections, and service area land use designations.

3.1 General Description
The City of Patterson was incorporated in 1919 after an interesting history. The Patterson Ranch Company, led by Thomas Patterson, subdivided 18,462 acres into ranches and set in motion the design of the town of Patterson. Determined to make Patterson unique among communities of its size, he modeled his town after the radiating street designs of Washington D.C. and Paris, France, following the design of the famous French architect and engineer Pierre Charles L'Enfant. Major streets were lined with Palm, Eucalyptus and Sycamore trees.

Patterson is located in Stanislaus County on Highway 33, along the Interstate 5 corridor, 280 miles north of Los Angeles, 92 miles south of Sacramento, 89 miles southeast of San Francisco, and 45 miles southeast of Livermore. The City is located between Interstate 5 to the west and the San Joaquin River to the east, sloping from southwest to northeast. The City’s sphere of influence covers approximately 12 square miles. A map of the service area is presented in Figure 3-1.

The City’s service area is a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial land uses embedded in a rich agricultural region. Since agriculture is the primary economic base, orchards of apricots, almonds, and walnuts, as well as row crops of dry beans, tomatoes, broccoli, spinach, peas, and melons have and continue to play an important role in the City’s economy. Further proof of this comes from the city’s other name, the “Apricot Capital of the World.” Based on the 2021 Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast and the Stanislaus Council of Governments 2022 Regional Transportation Plan, the City is expected to see ongoing urban growth through 2050.

The City’s existing potable well field is primarily located in the eastern portion of the city service area between East Las Palmas Avenue, South 2nd Street and the Patterson Irrigation District Canal. The City supplies potable groundwater for residential, industrial, and commercial uses through six (6) potable wells (one of which is currently on standby), augmented by non-potable irrigation wells, water storage tanks, and a water distribution pipeline network mostly sized from 6 to 12-inch diameters. All existing water services are metered and new connections are required to install water meters prior to occupancy. The City completed installation of its new advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) program in 2024, allowing for hourly meter readings. The City is responsible for operating, maintaining, and replacing the water system up to the water meter for each service.

The City is continually evaluating and updating its water supply portfolio in order to reliably meet current and future water needs in a cost-effective manner. For example, the City approved its Non-Potable Water Program (NPWP) more than 15 years ago, which was designed to use lower quality groundwater supplies for irrigation of public and commercial landscaped areas and sites.

As of 2025, the City has developed three (3) non-potable wells that are now in operation helping to meet annual water supply needs for the community. The City is looking to rely more on non-potable sources as Packet Pg. 462
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part of its long-term water supply portfolio when feasible for public and commercial landscaping, which is estimated to account for up to 20% of the City’s total annual water use.

The NPWP has two major benefits. First, it reduces pumping needs in the over-drafted Lower Aquifer of the Delta-Mendota Subbasin. Second, using non-potable water supplies for irrigation purposes reduces the impact on peak system demands during the summer months when maximum day and peak hour demands are highest.

The City’s NPWP is perpetual and could be expanded as the City grows to the east with potential benefits summarized in Table 3-1. The City is currently evaluating the merits of recycled water, purchase of surface water supply, and expanding stormwater capture as potential elements of the City’s future water portfolio (see more details in Section 6).

TABLE 3-1: NON-POTABLE WATER PROGRAM POTENTIAL BENEFITS NPWP Program
Sources of Supply
Potential Benefit to Water Supply Portfolio
Non-potable wells Could offset 10-20% of total City water demands by 2030 Recycled Water Could offset 5-15% of total City water demands by 2035 Stormwater Could offset 5% of total City water demands by 2035

3.2 Service Area Boundary
The City’s service area boundary is determined by local and regional land use planning policies and decisions which drive urban growth projections and planned regional growth patterns desired by agencies with land use authorities. The service area boundary is also a function of natural and institutional barriers such the San Joaquin River to the east, Interstate 5 to the west, and other agency service areas to the north and south. Future growth is occurring in a planned fashion through regular City General Plan and Housing Element updates, County General Plan updates, LAFCO service area reviews and assessments, and business sector interest in the local and regional economy.

The City’s water resource planning efforts are synchronized with changes to future land use policies and decisions that impact future water supply needs for the community. Figure 3-1 depicts the City’s current service area boundary as well as the existing wells, water mains, and Water Quality Control Facility (WQCF) which is a wastewater treatment plant.

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FIGURE 3-1: CITY OF PATTERSON SERVICE AREA BOUNDARY

3.3 Service Area Climate
The City of Patterson is located in the Central Valley region in California with hot dry summers and moderately cool winters with little rainfall during the year. From 1999 to 2017, the City had a DWR California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) Weather Station (Patterson Station #161) in the vicinity to track local weather patterns on a regular basis including daily wind, temperature, solar radiation, rainfall, and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) data. Two nearby DWR CIMIS Weather Stations – Modesto Station (#71), which lies approximately 14 miles north of Patterson and Denair II Station (#206), which lies approximately 22 miles east – remain active.

In Patterson, temperatures average about 75°F annually, ranging from average winter morning lows in the mid to upper 30’s, to average summer afternoon highs in the low to mid 90’s. During the summer months, temperatures may exceed 100 degrees, increasing water demands significantly. Average annual rainfall from 2016-2020 was approximately 10.5 inches, with most rainfall occurring between November and March. The combination of warmer temperatures (resulting in higher evapotranspiration) and highly infrequent precipitation during the summer results in peak water demands during that period for irrigation needs.

Average reference evapotranspiration (ETo) values from 2016-2025, which serve as indicators of how much water is required to maintain healthy agriculture and urban plant landscaping, range from 1.10 inches during Packet Pg. 464
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December to 8.20 inches in June. Taking rainfall into account, irrigation needs are typically minimal or not necessary during the winter months.

ETo, rainfall, and temperature averages from 2016-2025 for the City’s local climate conditions are presented in Table 3-2.

TABLE 3-2: MONTHLY AVERAGE CLIMATE SUMMARY (2016-2025)
Month
Standard
Monthly
Average ETo
(inches)
Average Total
Rainfall
(inches)
Average Temperature (°F)
Minimum Maximum
January 1.44 2.38 37.9 58.3
February 2.49 1.50 38.2 63.4
March 3.74 1.71 41.7 66.7
April 5.50 0.88 45.5 73.8
May 6.71 0.35 49.6 81.0
June 8.20 0.01 54.2 88.8
July 8.11 0.00 57.2 93.2
August 6.97 0.01 57.5 92.6
September 5.30 0.04 54.2 87.7
October 3.81 0.71 47.7 78.9
November 1.75 0.97 40.2 66.9
December 1.10 1.99 38.0 57.5
TOTAL 55.1 10.5 46.8 75.7
NOTE: Based on CIMIS Data from Patterson Station #161 (Jan 2016- May 2017) and Modesto Station #71 (June 2017 – Dec 2025)

3.4 Service Area Population and Demographics
The City’s 2025 population is 24,916 people served through about 7,694 metered water service connections.

The City is part of the regional urban growth planning process with future growth projections showing steady growth potential for the City over the 2025 UWMP planning horizon (to 2050). The City expects primarily residential sector growth with increases expected in commercial and industrial development. This development is expected to result in an increase of Low Density Residential development, which is intended to support complete neighborhoods with a range of housing products and a complementary range of neighborhood-serving commercial and public uses. The City’s updated service area population projections through 2050, which are estimated based on the expected annual growth rate of 0.6%, are included in Table 3-3. These projections also include anticipated growth associated with the Zaharias Baldwin developments in the area, based on assumptions in the 2020 Water Supply Assessment. More information on these developments can be found in Chapter 4.

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TABLE 3-3: CURRENT AND PROJECTED POPULATION (DWR TABLE 3-1) Population
Served
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050(opt)
24,916 29,178 33,461 37,768 42,098 46,452
NOTES: 2025 population is from the DOF and projected population based on expected local and regional urban growth rates (0.6% annually) over the 2025-2050 planning period.

Projections include anticipated population growth associated with the Zacharias Baldwin development based on assumptions in the 2020 Water Supply Assessment and discussed further in Chapter 4.

The City’s demographic information is summarized in Table 3-4 from data collected through the American Community Survey (ACS) website from its 2019-2024 ACS 5-Year Estimates data set. The City does not have any socioeconomic or demographic patterns that are anticipated to impact water use projections.

TABLE 3-4: SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SUMMARY Demographic Factor Data
Income and Poverty
Median Household Income $93,650
Poverty Rate 9.0%
Male Median Income $48,623
Female Median Income $28,842
Employment and Education
Employment Rate 58.8%
Educational Attainment –
High School Diploma or Higher 74.5%
Educational Attainment –
Bachelor’s Degree of Higher 13.6%
Age
Average Age 30.9
Persons Under 18 years of age 32.7%
Housing and Families
Homeownership Rate 71.3%
Median Housing Value $450,200
Average Family Size 4.18
Married-Couple Family Households 61.3%
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Demographic Factor Data
Total Housing Units 6,898
Occupancy Rate 94.6%
Households with Internet Service 94.8%
Race, Ethnicity, and Language
Hispanic or Latino 66.5%
Speak only English 43.9%
Speak Spanish 48.6%
Source; American Community Survey, 2019-2024 5-Year
Estimates

3.5 Land Uses Within Service Area
The City’s General Plan determines the land uses and development patterns for growth that occurs within the City service area. The land use designations within the City service area are depicted in Figure 3-2.

The City is predominantly a residential community with single family residential land uses (shown as yellow, orange, brown, and bright green in Figure 3-2) representing the majority of land use designations within the service area for current and future land use growth. Patterson also has areas of light industrial (gray), general commercial (red), and mixed use (pink) designations concentrated in the western parts of the service area.

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FIGURE 3-2: CITY OF PATTERSON LAND USES WITHIN SERVICE AREA Source: City of Patterson, 2025 General Plan Map
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4. WATER USE CHARACTERIZATION
This chapter describes the City of Patterson’s past, current, and projected water uses through 2050, and includes updated water demand projections to serve as the basis for planning changes to the City’s future water supply portfolio and corresponding water infrastructure improvements.

4.1 Past and Current Water Use By Sector
The City’s water supply is currently limited to raw and treated groundwater pumped from City wells and conveyed through its distribution system pipeline network to customers. Potable wells are chlorinated before delivery to customers. The City does not currently provide recycled water to any of its customers.

However, it does provide non-potable groundwater supplies to some current irrigation customers (public and commercial sites). The City’s past and current water demands are primarily for residential uses with almost two-thirds (63 percent) of total system demands serving residential customers with approximately 60 percent serving single family residential and 3 percent serving multi- family residential customers between 2022 and 2025. Landscape irrigation is the second largest water demand, comprising 26 percent of total system demands, serving either potable or non-potable irrigation customers. Commercial water use makes up approximately 10 percent of the City’s water demands.

The City has been developing its non-potable irrigation supplies with three (3) non-potable wells dedicated to irrigation service at time of publishing. A summary of 2025 water demands by sector can be found in Table 4-1 and in Figure 4-1.

TABLE 4-1: DEMANDS FOR POTABLE AND NON-POTABLE WATER – 2025 ACTUAL (DWR TABLE 4-1)
Use Type
2025 Actual Water Use
Potable or Non-Potable Volume (AF)
Single Family Potable 2,376
Multi-Family Potable 103
Commercial Potable 402
Landscape Potable 607
Landscape Non-Potable 488
Distribution System Water Loss Potable 414
Subtotal Potable 3,902
Subtotal Non-Potable 488
Total 4,390
NOTES: Distribution system water loss is based on the most recently available calendar year 2024 AWWA water loss audit calculated values. Thus, the total 2025 potable demands does not exactly match the 2025 total potable water supplied reported in DWR Table 2-1.

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FIGURE 4-1: TOTAL WATER USE BY SECTOR (2025)
The City is anticipating population growth during the 2025 UWMP planning horizon (2025-2050) which will increase the number of water service connections and customers relying on the City’s water system (as described in the following Section 4.2). From 2018-2020, potable water use was within the 140-150 GPCD range. From 2021-2025, the City saw a lower range of per capita water use of 120-131 GPCD, significantly lower than its 2020 target of 164 GPCD (see Chapter 5). Over the last several decades, the City has continued to see a decline in per capita water usage despite ongoing population growth, largely driven by water use efficiency, including ongoing conservation measures described in Chapter 9, as well as the Non-Potable Well Program (NPWP) which is designed to use lower quality non-potable groundwater supplies for irrigation of public and commercial landscaped areas.

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FIGURE 4-2: GROSS PER CAPITA TRENDS (2021-2025)

4.2 Projected Water Use By Sector
The City’s service area boundary is determined by local and regional land use planning policies and decisions which drive urban growth projections and planned regional growth patterns desired by agencies with land use authorities. Projected water use will be impacted by population growth, higher non-potable water usage, lower water system losses, and saturation of water use efficiency measures in older single family residential sector housing stock.

In 2024, the City of Patterson voted to approve the annexation of two mixed-use developments totaling 1,300 acres into its service area. The planned projects are referred to as the Zacharias and Baldwin development and consist of more than 5,000 dwelling units, more than 7.6 million square feet of commercial and industrial uses, two schools, a dual use stormwater basin/recreational facility, and 76 acres of parks/open space (City of Patterson, 2020a). The anticipated water use from the annexation is projected to reach 1,824 AFY, including losses, as shown in Table 4-2. 1 The buildout water demand comprises 1,252 AFY
of potable and 572 AFY of non-potable water. The existing land use is undeveloped and has no existing City water demands. Development is expected to occur across a 20-year period (City of Patterson, 2020a). While development is likely to occur in a non-linear fashion, for simplicity and high-level UWMP planning purposes, this 2025 UWMP assumes that construction will take place across the 20-year period of 2025- 2045 and the corresponding water use projections assume a linear increase in water demand in all sectors over this 20-year period. Table 4-3 (DWR Submittal Table 4-2) incorporates the totals into the appropriate water use categories.
1 Water use volumes were estimated based on the Zacharias Water Supply Assessment prepared by Woodard & Curran in 2020 (City of Patterson, 2020b) and modified by the City and Woodard & Curran to reflect aspects of new water use efficiency requirements.

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TABLE 4-2: ZACHARIAS-BALDWIN DEVELOPMENT DEMANDS BY SECTOR Use Type
Projected Water Use
Potable or
Non-Potable
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Single Family Potable 39 78 117 157 157
Multi-Family a Potable 194 388 582 774 774
Commercial b Potable 20 40 60 80 80
Industrial Potable 32 64 96 127 127
Landscape Potable 0 0 0 0 0
Landscape Non-Potable 143 286 429 572 572
Distribution System Water Loss Potable 29 57 86 114 114 Subtotal Potable 314 627 941 1,252 1,252
Subtotal Non-Potable 143 286 429 572 572
Total 457 913 1,370 1,824 1,824
NOTES:
a. Multi-family water use in the annexation is comprised of “Medium-Density” and “High-Density” residential demands as outlined in the WSA.
b. Commercial includes “Community Commercial” and “Mixed-Use” demand estimates. c. Summary of assumptions updated from 2020 Water Supply Assessment:
• Indoor residential water use estimated at 50 GPCD
• Residential outdoor landscaping assumed to have a landscape efficiency factor of 0.80. • Residential areas assumed to be 20% irrigable, commercial/industrial areas 10% irrigable, and open spaces are not irrigated.

The City’s projected water use by category for potable and non-potable uses is characterized in Table 4-3 and includes the following assumptions:
• An average of 2022-2025 actual water use was used to calculate water demand factors for each sector.
• Future growth in demands across all sectors was projected based on the projected growth in population shown in Table 3-3. Additional volumes of demand as a result of the Zacharias Baldwin development were added separately (as shown in Table 4-2). • Distribution system water loss (from the existing system, excluding the Zacharias Baldwin development) is projected to be equal to the City’s water loss performance standards set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) for real loss (14.2 gallons per service connection per day [GPSCD]) and apparent losses (6.2 GPSCD). Growth in future connections was scaled by the growth in population.
o The assumptions for water demands for the Zacharias Baldwin development include an assumed 10% water loss volume that has been added to the water loss volume projection for the City’s existing service area.

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• Passive water savings from plumbing code have been subtracted from demands within the City’s pre-annexation service area (as described further in Section 4.4.1). • Beginning in 2030, there's a 10 AFY offset between potable irrigation to non-potable irrigation as described in the paragraph below.

The City’s primary use of its non-potable water source is for irrigation, which improves the City’s water supply resiliency of its higher-quality potable supply. The non-potable wells extract from a shallower aquifer which has relatively lower overall water quality in comparison with the City’s primary production aquifer.

Utilizing non-potable groundwater for irrigation allows the City to preserve the deeper aquifer, which has higher overall water quality, for potable water uses. The non-potable irrigation systems are designed to accommodate non-potable groundwater or recycled water. Two City parks—North and South Park—are anticipated to switch from potable to non-potable irrigation before 2030 when a non-potable distribution pipeline is extended through the City, thus reducing demand on the potable system. Their collective irrigation demand totals to approximately 10 AFY. This shift is reflected in the water use projection summarized in Table 4-3.

TABLE 4-3: DEMANDS FOR POTABLE AND NON-POTABLE WATER - PROJECTED (DWR TABLE 4-2) Use Type
Projected Water Use
Potable or
Non-Potable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Single Family Potable 2,587 2,678 2,780 2,889 2,964
Multi-Family Potable 307 504 701 897 900
Commercial Potable 440 472 503 535 548
Industrial Potable 32 64 96 127 127
Landscape Potable 501 516 532 548 565
Landscape Non-Potable 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Distribution System Water Loss Potable 204 237 271 305 310 Subtotal Potable 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Subtotal Non-Potable 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Total 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,517 6,648
The City’s water use projections are based on the average annual water use breakdown by user class which varies year to year. Future growth patterns could impact total water use projection assumptions by user class. The City will closely monitor actual water use projections by user class and update key assumptions in the City’s 2030 UWMP. The City’s water resource planning efforts are synchronized with changes to future land use policies and decisions that can impact future water supply needs for the community and will be updated accordingly.

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4.3 Distribution System Water Loss
The City’s calculated real water losses from 2021 to 2024 have fluctuated from as low as 118 AF (2024) to as high as 228 AF (2022).

Table 4-5 confirms that the City submitted validated water loss audits for 2020-2024 and provides links to download the submitted reports from DWR’s submittal portal. The City has implemented a plan to replace old and damaged pipes which has helped to reduce system losses on a long-term basis. Additionally, the City’s customers are entirely metered and the City recently completed installation of AMI which further enhances the City’s ability to collect accurate consumption data for reporting.

For future water use projections, the City forecasts that its loss will meet its 2028 Water Loss Performance Standards for both real (14.2 gallons per service connection per day [GPSCD]) and apparent losses (6.2 GPSCD), a total of 20.4 GPSCD as determined by the SWRCB. While the City’s water loss values have fluctuated based on water loss audits compiled 2021-2024, as shown in Table 4-5, the City’s 2024 water loss audit met its 2028 Water Loss Performance Standards.

TABLE 4-4: WATER LOSS AUDIT REPORTING (DWR TABLE 4-5)
Public Water System ID #
Reported in Table 2-1 R Reporting Period Submitted to DWR Water Loss Audit Program (yes/no) CA5010017
2020 Yes
2021 Yes
2022 Yes
2023 Yes
2024 Yes
NOTES:

Links to Water Audits:
• 2020:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/2117826163/FINAL%202020%20AWWA%2DWAS%2D v5%2D20201006%5Fupdatedv3%2Exls
• 2021:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/3231702506/FINAL%202021%20AWWA%2DWAS%2D v5%2D20201006%5Fupdatedv3%5Fedits%2Exlsx
• 2022:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/1377210319/FWAS%20v6%2E0%5Frelease%20version %2020210211%5FL1Validated%2Exlsx
• 2023:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/8803006827/2023%5FFWAS%2Dv6%2E0%2Drelease %2Dversion%2DRR%5FValidatedv2%2Exlsx
• 2024:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/3049702286/City%20of%20Patterson%5F2024%5FFW AS%5FV6%2E1%20%2Exlsx
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TABLE 4-5: PROGRESS TOWARDS 2028 WATER LOSS STANDARD (DWR TABLE 4-6) Real Water Loss Apparent Water Loss
State Water
Board
Standard
Most Recent
AWWA Water
Loss Audit
Real Water
Loss (GPSCD)
State Water
Board
Standard
Most Recent
AWWA Water
Loss Audit
Apparent
Water Loss
(GPSCD)
2028 Real
Water Loss
Standard per
Connection
per Day
(GPSCD)
Volume of
Total Real Loss
(AF)
2028 Apparent
Water Loss
Standard per
Connection
per Day
(GPSCD)
Volume of
Total Apparent
Loss
(AF)

14.2 362 43.9 6.2 52.3 6.3
NOTES: Volumes and connection data are from the City’s 2024 AWWA Water Audit, which reported 7,367 total customer connections.

4.4 Passive Water Savings and Low-Income Housing
This section summarizes the assumptions made to incorporate future passive water savings and estimated water demands for low-income households into the City’s demand forecast, as shown in Table 4-6.

TABLE 4-6: INCLUSION IN WATER USE PROJECTIONS (DWR TABLE 4-3) Are Future Water Savings Included in Projections? Yes
If "Yes" to above, state the section or page number, in the cell to the right, where citations of the codes, ordinances, or otherwise are utilized in demand projections are found.

Section 4.4
Are Lower Income Residential Demands Included In Projections? Yes

4.4.1 Future Water Savings
Passive water savings are water conservation that results from necessary appliance upgrades or changes to plumbing codes over time. Passive savings are calculated based on estimates of water savings by appliance and forecasted changes in population, employment, and housing.

An estimate of future passive savings has been incorporated into the demand projection, as shown in Table 4-8. The passive conservation savings are based on a demographically-driven growth and replacement model that accounts for fixtures from new construction and natural replacement using the same demographic data used for projecting the demands. Savings estimates are provided for the single-family residential, multiple family residential, and non-residential sectors. The passive conservation model estimates water savings for toilets, showerheads, clothes washers, and urinals. The model estimates the stock of different types of water fixtures annually from 1990 to 2050.

Note that the model only includes passive savings from existing housing stock in the City of Patterson and does not incorporate any savings from the new annexation which will add over 5,000 new homes to the City’s service area, as those homes are expected to be built compliant to existing plumbing code.

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Water fixtures installed in new construction are assumed to be in compliance with the plumbing codes in effect when the new construction occurs. Natural replacement rates vary by device and are linked to the expected life of the device. When devices are replaced due to failure, remodeling, or other reasons, the new devices are assumed to be compliant with the plumbing codes in effect when the replacement occurs.

The natural replacement rate for indoor plumbing fixtures is provided in Table 4-7. The useful life and associated annual replacement rates for each device are based on standard industry estimates, estimates from plumbing fixture saturation studies, and Best Management Practices reports from California Water Efficiency Partnership.

TABLE 4-7: PARAMETERS USED IN INDOOR WATER SAVINGS FIXTURES Sector Fixture Useful Life (Years) Replacement Rate
(% per Year)
Residential Toilets 25 4%
Residential Showerheads 8 12%
Residential Clothes Washers 14 8.3%
Non-Residential Toilets 25 4%
Non-Residential Urinals 40 2.5%
The frequency of water use events is provided in Table 4-8. These were obtained from focused end-use studies. Residential fixtures are based on 2016 Residential End Uses of Water, Version 2 published by the Water Research Foundation (Water Research Foundation, 2016). Non-residential fixtures are based on Commercial and Institutional End Uses of Water study published by the Water Research Foundation (Water Research Foundation, 2000). These factors are applied on a per person basis as described below.

TABLE 4-8: PARAMETERS USED IN INDOOR WATER SAVINGS BEHAVIORS Sector Fixture Frequency of Use
Residential Toilets 4.9 flushes per person per day
Residential Showerheads 7.8 minutes per use

0.7 uses per person per day
Residential Clothes Washers 3.5 cubic feet per load

0.3 cycles per person per day
Non-Residential Toilets 2.6 flushes per employee per
day
Table 4-9 summarizes the total savings from passive conservation that have already been subtracted from the baseline demands as reported in Table 4-3.

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TABLE 4-9: PASSIVE WATER SAVINGS PROJECTION (DWR TABLE 4-4) Description
Passive savings
2030
(AF)
2035
(AF)
2040
(AF)
2045
(AF)
2050
(AF)
Single Family 61 87 104 117 127
Multi-Family 1 1 1 1 1
Commercial 3 4 5 6 8
Total Passive Savings 65 91 110 124 136
NOTES: Passive savings estimated by device and sector using statistics and parameters described above as applied to demand forecast in Table 4-3.

4.4.2 Water Use For Lower Income Households
California Water Code (CWC) Section 10631.1(a) requires suppliers to estimate projected water use for single-family (SFR) and multi-family (MFR) residential housing needed for “lower income” households, as identified in the Housing Element of the General Plan for the service area of the supplier. It does not require quantification of current water use by lower income households. Lower income households comprise extremely low-, very low-, and low-income households, which range from 0-30%, 31-50%, and 51-80% of the median household income (MHI), respectively. According to the City’s most recent Housing Element (2023-2031), an estimated 35% of households in the City are lower income, made up of 10% extremely lowincome, 8% very low-income, and 16% low-income (City of Patterson, 2025). The City’s Housing Element indicates the Regional Housing Need Allocation for 2023 through 2031 for lower income housing is 1,770 units, including 523 units each for extremely- and very-low income households, and 724 units for lowincome households. The Regional Housing Need Allocation does not break down the housing need by housing type (single family vs. multi-family).

Water use for lower income households is incorporated into the City’s updated water demand projections assuming lower income housing grows proportionally to City population growth. Projected water demands specifically for lower income housing was estimated as 35% of the projected residential water use, or 1,004 AF in 2030, growing to 1,343 AF in 2050.

4.5 Climate Change Considerations
Climate change will continue to affect water management throughout California and could eventually have significant effects on the City of Patterson. Climate change is likely to impact water use patterns in the following ways:
• Higher temperatures. Higher summer temperatures and more frequent heat waves are expected to increase water demands for outdoor irrigation and indoor cooling. Higher temperatures may also lengthen the irrigation season, resulting in higher overall water use. • Prolonged drought. More frequent and severe droughts may increase demands on groundwater as surface supplies become less available, leading to higher pumping demands and detrimental effects on groundwater basins.

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• Increased evapotranspiration. Warmer and drier conditions may increase evapotranspiration in crops, requiring greater volumes of irrigation to maintain viable crop yields.

Overall, climate-driven increases in water demand may place additional stress on local groundwater resources. Climate change may also cause significant impacts on local water supplies and supply reliability, as discussed in Section 6.6.

Climate change is further explored in Appendix D.

4.5.1 City Climate Change - Adaptation Actions
The City plans to take the following actions to combat the effects of climate change on system water demands.

Short-term Measures
• Incorporate climate change considerations into CIP and Master Plans as necessary. • Monitor reduced indoor water use trends that may impact wastewater influent quality. • Monitor changes in drinking water quality that may impact wastewater quality. • Monitor influent total dissolved solids concentrations to prevent impacts to the secondary treatment process at the wastewater treatment plant.
• Reduce inflow and infiltration (I&I) sources that could impact wastewater quality, flow rates and disposal.

Long-term Measures
• Consider a range of climate change outcomes for identifying climate change strategies. • Monitor changes in drinking water quality entering the City’s water/wastewater systems. • Monitor changes in safe yield thresholds reflected in long-term SGMA policy actions. • Reduce sediment from entering the sewer system resulting from climate change. • Reduce collection system I&I to reduce the impact of high intensity storm events on the wastewater collection and treatment systems.
• Develop corrosion prevention plans as necessary to mitigate water quality concerns. • Coordinate with other water and wastewater agencies on long-term protection strategies for water, wastewater and wet weather facilities depending on climate change impacts.

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5. SB X7-7 BASELINE, TARGETS, AND 2020 COMPLIANCE
The Water Conservation Act of 2009 (SB X7-7) which requires that water agencies classified as urban water suppliers reduce their potable water demands by 20% by 2020. SB X7-7 requires urban water suppliers to report in their UWMPs a baseline daily per capita water use (baseline), an urban water use target developed from the baseline, and compliance daily per capita water use.

The City calculated its per capita baseline water use based on the ‘persons-per-connection’ methodologies and procedures outlined by DWR in the “Urban Water Management Plan Guidebook 2020” (2020 Guidebook). The City’s 2020 demand target of 164 gallons per capita per day (gpcd) was subsequently determined using 20-percent reduction criteria. These methods and calculations are described in detail in the City’s 2020 UWMP.

The Water Code does not set an end date for reporting on progress in meeting the SB X7-7 target. DWR indicated that there was not sufficient time to conduct formal rulemaking to implement an end date to SB X7-7 reporting requirements before 2025 UWMPs were due. Thus, this 2025 UWMP includes this chapter which confirms that that City met its 2020 target.

In 2020, the City’s per capita water use was 146 gpcd, below the target value of 164 gpcd as shown in Table 5-1. Thus, the City met its 2020 Per Capita Demand Target. The SB X7-7 Verification and Compliance Forms were attached to the City’s 2020 UWMP.

TABLE 5-1: SB X7-7 TARGET PROGRESS (DWR TABLE 5-1)
Was Supplier part of a
merger or consolidation
since 2020?
Regional Alliance
Target or Individual
Target?
2020
Target
Actual 2020
GPCD
Did Supplier
Achieve Targeted
Reduction for 2020?
No Individual Target 164 146 Yes
In 2024, DWR and SWRCB implemented reporting for the AB 1668 / SB 606 legislation, more commonly known as Making Conservation a California Way of Life. Reporting on compliance with this new program is not currently required for the 2025 UWMP, however a discussion of the City’s programs and policies for water use efficiency is provided in Chapter 9.

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6. WATER SUPPLY CHARACTERIZATION
This chapter describes the current and future water supplies available to the City. The City currently relies on local groundwater supplies for 100% of its water supply portfolio.

6.1 Water Supply Analysis Overview
The City is a local retail water provider who relies on groundwater for 100% of its water supply portfolio. The factors that drive how the City may update its future water supply portfolio are shown in Table 6-1.

TABLE 6-1: WATER SUPPLY PLANNING FACTORS AND CONSIDERATIONS Factor Drivers Planning Considerations
Reliability Operations Available All Year Operational efficiency and pumping reductions
Dry Year Resiliency Available in droughts Real shortage vs. State cutbacks Safe Drinking Water Act
Compliance Drinking Water Health/Safety Current and future regulations Rate Affordability
Water Rates < Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA)
Affordability criteria
Rate/financial planning
Local vs. Regional City Only vs. Regional Partner Establish regional participation criteria Water Rights Entitlement Security Availability
All Years Purchase/transfer/permit legal integrity
Portfolio Diversification Resiliency Reliability Project development regulatory approval timing/cost allocation
Traditional water supplies for urban water suppliers in the Central Valley consist primarily of surface and groundwater supplies. That has been changing over the past few decades as urban water agencies plan ahead for a more uncertain future. Diversifying water supply portfolios where practical is a growing trend with recycled water and non-potable uses, reduced water use targets, and recharge projects becoming more popular and, in some cases, necessary for a resilient water future. The paragraphs below provide an overview of common sources of supply considered (or not considered) as part of the City’s water supply portfolio.

6.1.1 Groundwater
Groundwater is discussed in more detail in Section 6.2.

6.1.2 Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project
The City anticipates implementing the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project to recharge the groundwater basin. Sources of supply are still being determined, but options have been evaluated, including both stormwater and surface water. More details on this project can be found in Section 6.3.

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6.1.3 Surface Water
Surface water sources include local rivers, reservoirs, and state/federal water project storage and conveyance systems. In California, surface water is allocated; acquiring surface water entitlements requires purchase or transfers and agreed-upon resource allocation to share a limited resource. Surface water entitlements are ever more valuable in the water market and only make sense with strong partnerships with mutual interests.

Surface water can be obtained from a current holder of the entitlement through purchase, transfer, exchange, dedication, etc. Surface waters on the west side of the Central Valley are supplied through manmade canals owned and operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Central Valley Project [CVP]), state of California (State Water Project [SWP]), or from the San Joaquin River watershed.

Opportunities for the delivery of surface water from state or federal water projects are limited for nonfederal or non-state water contractors unless area-of-origin water rights are possible. The City is neither a state nor a federal contractor. Irrigation districts surrounding the City are federal contractors and receive water from the CVP through the Delta Mendota Canal (DMC), including areas within the City General Plan boundaries. Some local surface water is pumped directly from the San Joaquin River by some irrigation districts, but only for irrigation use since the state prohibits its use as a source for drinking water. Several long-term planning efforts have evaluated the potential to incorporate surface water supplies to improve water quality, comply with regulatory requirements, and reduce reliance on Lower Aquifer pumping under SGMA. More information is provided in Section 6.3 about the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project which includes a potential surface water source considered as a part of the City’s future water supply portfolio, as well as other surface water options being evaluated as described in Section 6.5.

6.1.4 Stormwater
The City does not currently recover and reuse stormwater. However, it has evaluated capturing flows from nearby Del Puerto Creek to recharge its groundwater basin. Stormwater flows from the creek would be diverted to infiltration basins which would recharge either the shallow or deep aquifer (pending additional studies of the underlying geology and potential for injection to the deep aquifer). Initial estimates indicate that stormwater capture could provide up to 1,550 AFY of water on a long-term annual average basis for groundwater recharge which could then be pumped for potable use (Woodard & Curran, 2024). More information is provided in Section 6.3 about the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project.

6.1.5 Recycled Water
The City of Patterson collects and treats wastewater from within the City and from Diablo Grande, a small community located west of the City, at its WQCF, which received about 1,909 AFY of influent in 2025 and currently discharges treated effluent to percolation ponds. Although the facility does not yet produce recycled water, the City is evaluating upgrades to become Title 22 compliant and implement a recycled water program for non-potable uses, with potential implementation no earlier than 2035. Refer to Section

6.4 for more details.

6.1.6 Desalinated Water
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disposing of the resulting brine is not financially feasible. Furthermore, the local groundwater and surface water supplies do not require desalination.

6.1.7 Exchanges/Transfers of Water
The City does not currently exchange or transfer water with other entities. There are no direct interconnections with any neighboring agencies. Possible future water supply projects (see Section 6.5) could involve partnerships with other agencies that may or may not involve the opportunity for exchanges and transfers of water. Note that all neighboring groundwater users are inherently connected through the use of the Delta-Mendota Subbasin as a shared source of water supply.

6.2 Groundwater
Local groundwater from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin (a part of the larger San Joaquin Valley Groundwater Basin), as shown in Figure 6-1 is the sole source of the City’s water supplies for the community.

FIGURE 6-1: DELTA-MENDOTA SUBBASIN
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The City’s groundwater supplies are distributed to customers through its water distribution system network.

The City operates six potable water production wells (with one currently on standby) with water storage tanks for potable water needs and three non-potable water production wells to serve public and commercial irrigations needs (see Figure 3-1).

6.2.1 Basin Description
The Delta-Mendota Subbasin (Subbasin) is a long, narrow groundwater subbasin located at the northwestern end of the San Joaquin Valley Groundwater Basin. The Subbasin is approximately bounded on the west by the Coast Range, on the north by the Stanislaus/San Joaquin County line, on the east by the San Joaquin River, and follows the boundary of the Tranquility Irrigation District at its southernmost reach. The Subbasin encompasses approximately 765,000 acres across portions of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, Madera, and San Benito counties. According to DWR’s SGMA 2019 Prioritization and Bulletin 118 - 2020 Update, the Subbasin is classified as both a critically overdrafted and a high-priority basin (DWR, 2020). The Subbasin is not an adjudicated area.

Groundwater conditions beneath the City are characterized by a two‑aquifer system, as described by the hydrogeologic conceptual model developed for the Delta‑Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) which was most recently completed in 2024 (described further in Section 6.2.2). The groundwater system consists of an Upper Aquifer and a Lower Aquifer, which are separated by the regionally extensive Corcoran Clay aquitard. The Upper Aquifer generally extends from near the ground surface to the top of the Corcoran Clay and is typically unconfined to semi‑confined, receiving recharge from applied irrigation water, precipitation, canal seepage, streambed infiltration, and localized ponding. The Lower Aquifer occurs beneath the Corcoran Clay within older deposits of the Tulare Formation and underlying formations and is generally confined. Along portions of the western boundary of the Subbasin, the Corcoran Clay thins or pinches out, allowing limited hydraulic connection and downward percolation between the Upper and Lower Aquifers. Groundwater production wells in the Subbasin commonly extend several hundred feet below ground surface, with deeper wells constructed to access the confined Lower Aquifer in areas where water demands and groundwater conditions necessitate deeper development (Delta‑Mendota Subbasin GSP, 2024).

Groundwater quality in the shallow zone above the Corcoran Clay (generally within about 25 feet of land surface) is typically unsuitable for potable use and is primarily used for non-potable purposes; monitoring indicates elevated and, in some areas, increasing concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS) and nitrate consistent with agricultural influences. Groundwater below the Corcoran Clay, which supplies the City’s municipal wells, is generally of higher quality and suitable for potable use; however, localized exceedances of TDS, arsenic, hexavalent chromium (chromium-6), and 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP) have been documented, per the GSP. Chromium-6 is a naturally occurring constituent associated with Coast Range– derived sediments and toxic groundwater conditions. Chromium-6 has been detected in the Upper Aquifer and, to a lesser extent, the Lower Aquifer within the Subbasin, including the City’s supply wells.

Concentrations at City supply wells have historically been below prior regulatory thresholds but exceed the recently adopted State primary drinking water maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 micrograms per liter of chromium-6. The City received a Notice of Violation from the Division of Drinking Water (DDW) in May 2025. In response, the City prepared a Hexavalent Chromium Compliance Plan, which was approved by the state in January 2026. The City is conducting a Feasibility Study to evaluate additional treatment Packet Pg. 483
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options. The City will continue to monitor regulatory developments and groundwater quality trends. If future compliance actions or treatment are required to meet applicable drinking water standards, the City will identify and implement long-term solutions that ensure regulatory compliance while minimizing lifecycle costs to ratepayers.

6.2.2 Groundwater Management

6.2.2.1 Inter-Agency Coordination and Plans
Following the passage of the 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), the City began discussion with other users of the Delta-Mendota Subbasin regarding the formation of a Groundwater Sustainability Agency(ies) (GSAs) and coordination for the preparation of a Groundwater Sustainability (GSP) as a prudent strategy to cost-effectively meet the new SGMA requirements. The City subsequently filed to become a GSA in the Subbasin and was approved by DWR. As one of 23 GSAs in the Subbasin, the City governs water management activities within its jurisdictional boundaries, and coordinates with the other Subbasin GSAs to implement SGMA-mandated activities for the entire Delta-Mendota Subbasin. The City and other Subbasin GSAs participate through a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) to facilitate regional cooperation and maintain SGMA compliance. The City of Patterson GSA approved its initial SGMA-compliant GSP for the Northern and Central Delta-Mendota Region of the Subbasin in January 2020 which was submitted to DWR for review and approval as required per SGMA.

Subsequent DWR review determined that the six separate Delta-Mendota Subbasin GSPs submitted in 2020, and later revised in 2022, were incomplete and ultimately inadequate, resulting in the Subbasin being referred to the SWRCB for potential state intervention. In response, the 23 GSAs collaborated to prepare and adopt a single, consolidated GSP in July 2024 that addressed the deficiencies identified by DWR. Following SWRCB staff review, the Board determined in April 2025 that the revised single GSP sufficiently corrected the prior deficiencies, avoided probationary designation, and returned the Delta-Mendota Subbasin to DWR’s oversight for continued implementation and evaluation under SGMA. 2 The City of Patterson GSA participates in regional groundwater management, including GSP activities, as part of the Northern Delta-Mendota GSA group and the associated Northern Delta-Mendota Region Management Committee (Management Committee). In October 2024, the Management Committee adopted the Northern Delta-Mendota Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP) to meet requirements outlined in the GSP. The plan defines pumping reduction triggers and procedures, monitoring and reporting requirements, and pumping reduction targets. The City notified GSA member agencies of its intent to prepare its 2025 UWMP and provides opportunities for interested party review as documented in Section 10.1 of this document.

6.2.2.2 Groundwater Basin Status
Changes in groundwater levels have been monitored by DWR and various cooperators for many decades in the region. The Delta-Mendota Subbasin was included on DWR’s final list of critically overdraft basins. As a result, the Subbasin must be managed by a SGMA-compliant GSP which characterizes documented overdraft conditions and identifies the safe yield thresholds which are addressed through GSP management objectives and implementation activities. This analysis builds off the foundational framework of 2The adopted Delta‑Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) is available for download at:
https://deltamendota.org/final-gsp-documents/
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groundwater management activities implemented by the San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority (SLDMWA) over prior decades.

6.2.2.3 Groundwater Modeling
The 2024 single Delta-Mendota Subbasin GSP evaluated basin-wide groundwater recharge and inflows using Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2 (CVHM2). Modeled inflows take the form of deep percolation of applied irrigation water, canal and streambed seepage, mountain-front recharge along the western basin margin, and subsurface interbasin inflows. Under this framework, recharge to the Upper Aquifer occurs across much of the Subbasin, while recharge to the Lower Aquifer is more limited and occurs primarily where the Corcoran Clay is thin or absent or via interbasin flow from the eastern Sierra Nevada foothills. CVHM2 also simulates key groundwater system outputs including primarily groundwater pumping by sector, but also groundwater discharge to surface water features, evapotranspiration from shallow groundwater, and land subsidence associated with aquifer compaction, which are used collectively to assess basin water budgets and long‑term sustainability conditions.

6.2.2.4 Cutbacks and Recharge
Consistent with the GSP approach, groundwater sustainability for the City is now managed through basin-wide Sustainable Management Criteria and pumping cutback requirements, which are regulated by the PRP, rather than a fixed local safe yield value.

While groundwater pumping within the Delta-Mendota Subbasin has historically exceeded long-term recharge, resulting in Subbasin-wide overdraft condition, the City’s groundwater pumping represents only a small fraction of the pumping that occurs on a regular basis within the Subbasin. As part of ongoing SGMA implementation, the City participates in and is subject to the Northern Delta‑Mendota Region Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP) adopted in 2024 to address ongoing Lower Aquifer overdraft. The PRP indicates that, over the historical baseline period of Water Years 2019–2023, average pumping from the Lower Aquifer exceeded sustainable conditions by approximately 9,000 AFY. This baseline overdraft value is the basis for the required Lower Aquifer pumping reductions to be implemented through 2030 to begin correcting overdraft conditions. Under this framework, the City is required to reduce its Lower Aquifer pumping by approximately 460 AFY by 2030, implemented through incremental annual reductions beginning in 2025.

These reductions were calculated to be proportional to the City’s contribution to basin pumping and reflect its relatively minor share of total groundwater use in the region. The model-estimated baseline pumping by the City from the Lower Aquifer is 3,086 AFY, averaged across Water Years 2019-2023.

6.2.2.5 Additional Groundwater Management Considerations The City’s annual groundwater production varies depending on weather, economic, land use, and demographic factors. Overall, municipal pumping is expected to increase if planned growth occurs during the UWMP planning horizon, with the magnitude of increase driven primarily by actual development rates and per‑capita water use. Projected total gross water use figures in this plan assume an average per capita use based on 2022-2025 actuals. Lower per capita water use levels in the future could offset some of the increase in pumping due to population growth, resulting in a lower rate of increase in groundwater pumping.

Another City strategy for managing groundwater pumping is to shift non-potable water uses to zones above the Corcoran Clay (Upper Aquifer) while maintaining drinking water use extractions from the zones below the Corcoran Clay (Lower Aquifer) which have better water quality. As previously mentioned, the Upper and Lower Packet Pg. 485
City of Patterson (0013240.00) 6-7 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
Aquifers are separated by the Corcoran Clay layer, allowing these aquifers to be operated relatively independently. The City has already shifted more than 200 AFY of its groundwater pumping to the Upper Aquifer using non-potable irrigation wells which are more easily recharged naturally and through conjunctive use and stormwater management actions to reduce pumping on the higher quality Lower Aquifer. By matching its groundwater use with the quality of the source (aquifer), the City is better positioned to manage its potable water sources in the Lower Aquifer within the pumping restrictions without negative drawdown effects on a local or regional scale.

The Subbasin is a source of supply for urban suppliers, agricultural users, and private wells. Ongoing participation in GSP implementation and the PRP has expanded monitoring requirements for groundwater levels, water quality, and pumping, including quarterly groundwater level monitoring, semi‑annual water quality sampling, and a transition to metered pumping and annual reporting. These data will be used to refine basin‑wide modeling, assess localized impacts, and support adaptive management to ensure continued compliance with SGMA objectives and pumping reduction targets.

6.2.3 Historical Pumping
Table 6-2 below summarizes actual annual groundwater pumping from the City’s wells from calendar years 2021 through 2025. Note that this does not exactly match annual groundwater pumping reported for the GSP which uses water years (October 1 through September 30). Annual pumping varies based on several factors including number of customers, hydrologic conditions (normal or dry year conditions), water conservation program implementation, SWRCB policies, and other factors that may impact per capita water use trends and patterns.

TABLE 6-2: GROUNDWATER VOLUME PUMPED (DWR TABLE 6-1)
Groundwater
Type
Potable or
Non-Potable
(OPTIONAL)
Location or Basin
Name
2021
(AF)
2022
(AF)
2023
(AF)
2024
(AF)
2025
(AF)
Alluvial Basin Potable
City of Patterson:

Delta-Mendota
Subbasin
4,038 3,885 3,851 3,868 4,033
Alluvial Basin Non-Potable
City of Patterson:

Delta-Mendota
Subbasin
533 576 463 578 488
Total 4,591 4,461 4,314 4,446 4,521
NOTE: Summed rows may not match the totals due to rounding.

6.3 Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project
The City is implementing the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project to strengthen groundwater sustainability and ensure a dependable water supply for the community and surrounding region. This project will replenish (via recharge) the Upper and Lower Aquifers of the Delta-Mendota Groundwater Subbasin, helping to restore groundwater levels, enhance long-term water resilience, and support regional Packet Pg. 486
City of Patterson (0013240.00) 6-8 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
water management strategies. This project will involve construction of a groundwater recharge basin and a turnout into Del Puerto Creek. A 2024 Draft Preliminary Design Basis Report evaluated three future sources of water for groundwater recharge:

1. Stormwater generated at the planned Zacharias Baldwin Development (as mentioned earlier in Section 4.2), of up to 750 AF in average rainfall years.

2. Water releases from the planned Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir, of up to 800 AFY in an average rainfall year.

3. Stormwater overflows of Del Puerto Creek captured by a planned flood control basin; not enough information is available to estimate a supply benefit.

The total potential recharge is 1,550 AF, combining potential future sources of water 1 and 2 in the above list. The City is also evaluating the purchase of surface water to provide for recharge through the project.

The report estimated that design, permitting, procurement, and construction would occur between 2028- 2030, with the project coming online by end of 2030 (Woodard & Curran, 2024).

To support this vital project, the City has been actively seeking funding from multiple sources. City staff have pursued congressional earmarks, state and federal grants, and local partnerships to secure the necessary resources for project development and implementation. Implementation of a portion of the project is necessary to offset the demand of the planned Zacharias Baldwin Development is part of the Baldwin and Zacharias master plans.

6.4 Wastewater and Recycled Water Supply

6.4.1 Existing Wastewater System
Wastewater generated within the City is managed through a centralized collection and treatment system operated by the City. In addition to City wastewater flows, the Water Quality Control Facility (WQCF) provides regional service by treating wastewater from Diablo Grande, a small community located west of the City. Wastewater is conveyed to the treatment plant via a gravity‑driven collection system and treated at the WQCF, which is located about 2.5 miles east of the City on Polar Avenue near the San Joaquin River.

Recent operating data indicate that total influent flows to the facility were approximately 1,909 AF in 2025, reflecting the overall magnitude of wastewater generated within the combined service area and the upper bound of potential reclaimed water availability.

The current treatment facility uses three treatment trains. The first is an activated sludge treatment process with an oxidation ditch and two clarifiers. The second is an advanced integrated ponds system (AIPS). The third is an activated sludge process with an oxidation ditch and one clarifier. Excess biosolids (sludge) from the two oxidation ditches receive additional digestion in four aerobic digesters. Digested sludge is then dewatered using chemically enhanced plastic media drying beds. After treatment, the effluent is discharged to percolation ponds adjacent to the WQCF, where it infiltrates into underlying soils. This discharge method provides indirect groundwater recharge benefits but does not constitute a managed or recoverable recycled water supply.

Table 6-3 includes the annual volume of wastewater collected in 2025 as influent at the City’s WQCF.

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TABLE 6-3: WASTEWATER COLLECTED WITHIN SERVICE AREA IN 2025 (DWR TABLE 6-2) Wastewater Collection Recipient of Collected Wastewater Name of
Wastewater
Collection Agency
Wastewater
Volume
Metered or
Estimated?

OPTIONAL
Volume of
Wastewater
Collected from
UWMP Service
Area 2025 (AF)
Name of Wastewater
Treatment Plant
(WWTP) and Place ID
Number
Is WWTP
Located
Within UWMP
Area?
City of Patterson Metered 1,909 City of Patterson WQCF, Place ID 247782 Yes
Total Wastewater Received from
UWMP Service Area in 2025: 1,909
Table 6-4 includes the annual volume of wastewater treated and disposed as discharge to the San Joaquin River via the City’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Permit.

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TABLE 6-4: WASTEWATER TREATMENT AND DISCHARGE WITHIN SERVICE AREA IN 2025 (DWR TABLE 6-3) Wastewater
Treatment
Plant Name
and Place ID
Number
Does This
Plant Treat
Wastewater
Generated
Outside the
UWMP
Service Area?
(OPTIONAL)
2025 Volume
of
Wastewater
Received from
UWMP
Service Area
(As Reported
in Submittal
Table 6-2 R)
(AF)
Total
2025
Volume
of Water
Treated
(AF)
2025 Outcomes of Treated Wastewater
Water Recycled Within
UWMP Service Area
(enter data as
applicable)
Water Recycled
Outside of UWMP
Service Area
(enter data as
applicable)
Effluent Discharge that
is not a Permitted
Recycled Water Use
(enter data as
applicable)
Required Discharge
for Instream Flow
(enter data as
applicable)
Delivered to Another Entity for
Additional Treatment
(enter data as applicable)
Treatment
Level
Volume
(AF)
Treatment
Level
Volume
(AF)
Treatment
Level
Volume
(AF)
Treatment
Level
Volume
(AF)
Treatment
Level
Volume
(AF)
Name of
other entity
City of
Patterson
WQCF, Place
ID 247782
Yes 1,909 1,909 -
Secondary,
Undisinfected1,909 - -
Total 1,909 1,909 0 0 1,909 0 0
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6.4.2 Recycled Water Potential
The City does not presently deliver recycled water for beneficial use, nor does it receive reclaimed water from neighboring agencies. Although recycled water is not included as an existing supply source in this UWMP, long‑range planning efforts have identified wastewater reuse as a potential strategy to enhance water supply reliability and reduce reliance on groundwater pumping. Earlier planning documents anticipated that recycled water use could emerge over time, primarily for non‑potable irrigation demands, subject to regulatory, financial, and infrastructure considerations.

As part of its WMP, the City has explored implementing a recycled water program to serve non-potable irrigation demands in the service area (City of Patterson, 2018). This would include upgrading the WQCF to become Title 22 compliant and connecting the WQCF outlet to the non-potable network. Implementation of recycled water is typically a lengthy planning and implementation process, meaning delivery of recycled water is not likely to occur any earlier than 2035, assuming planning were to begin immediately.

In recent years, the City has continued to evaluate recycled water opportunities within the broader context of groundwater sustainability planning in the Delta‑Mendota Subbasin. Development of a recycled water program would be consistent with the Basin’s identified need for a diversified portfolio of supply augmentation projects to support long‑term sustainability (Delta-Mendota Subbasin GSP, 2024).

Consistent with the City’s current planning assumptions, a 2035 planning horizon is being used to assess whether recycled water could feasibly be incorporated into the City’s long‑term water portfolio. While recycled water volumes are not assumed to be a reliable supply during the current UWMP period, recycled water remains a potential future source that could support regional pumping reduction objectives and improve overall supply resilience if implemented. The City is currently planning for a 2035 time horizon for developing and implementing a recycled water project if it is feasible from the life cycle cost, regulatory compliance, and rate affordability perspectives.

Table 6-5 includes the volume of recycled water direct beneficial uses in 2025 (actuals of zero) and for projections for future use from 2030-2050.

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TABLE 6-5: RECYCLED WATER DIRECT BENEFICIAL USES WITHIN SERVICE AREA (DWR TABLE 6-4) Use Type
Potable or
NonPotable
(after
treatment if
treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Additional
Information
(as needed)
2030
(AF)
2035
(AF)
2040
(AF)
2045
(AF)
2050
(AF)
Potential Recycled
Water Use
Volume
Narrative
page
number
(OPTIONAL)
Landscape
irrigation
(excluding
golf courses)
NonPotable 0 187 187 374 561
Industrial use NonPotable 0 27 27 54 81
Subtotal Potable 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal Non-Potable 0 214 214 428 642 0
Total 0 214 214 428 642 0 0
Table 6-6 includes recycled water projections for 2025 that were made in the 2020 UWMP versus 2025 actual uses for 2025. The City did not project any recycled water for 2025, nor use any recycled water in 2025.

TABLE 6-6: 2020 UWMP RECYCLED WATER USE PROJECTION COMPARED TO 2025 ACTUAL (DWR TABLE 6-5)

Check the box if recycled water was not used in 2025 nor previously projected for use in 2020.

Table 6-7 includes information on methods to expand future recycled water use within the City service area.

TABLE 6-7: METHODS TO EXPAND FUTURE RECYCLED WATER USE (DWR TABLE 6-6) Name of Action Description
Planned
Implementation
Year
Expected Increase in
Recycled Water Use
(AF)
Tertiary Treatment
Upgrade and
Connection to NonPotable System
Additional wastewater
treatment for re-use
2035 214
Total (AF) 214
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 6-3 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

6.5 Future Water Supply
This 2025 UWMP includes the various DWR-required water supply related data tables which summarize existing and potential water supplies for the City. The idea of these tables is to characterize currently available water supplies and identify water supplies that could be developed as needed over the 2025 UWMP planning horizon.

The City currently relies on local groundwater resources for 100% of its water supply portfolio. The DWR tables that follow indicate current and future water supplies that are or could be available to meet the City’s 2050 gross total water use projections with updated population projections.

The City plans to implement the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project, as described earlier in Section 6.3.

The City plans to further evaluate expanding its Non-Potable Water Network (NPWP) as feasible by further extending non-potable well sources and/or adding tertiary treated recycled water sources based on the City’s actual future water needs over the planning horizon.

The City can only control groundwater pumping within its portion of the Delta-Mendota Subbasin. There are many other groundwater users in the region who utilize groundwater as part of their annual water supplies with higher use rates during dry year periods. The City is a relatively low volume user of groundwater resources as compared to other groundwater users in the region.

6.5.1 Near-Term Surface Water Supplies and Pumping Changes As a result of the Lower Aquifer pumping limitations, the City anticipates pumping and treating water from the Upper Aquifer to potable standards to meet increasing potable demand from the Zacharias Baldwin development. This will reduce the available non-potable supplies that are available to meet non-potable demands, likely requiring two of the three non-potable wells to be converted to potable uses. The City expects to need to purchase surface water supplies in the short-term to supplement non-potable demands beyond what can be served by a single non-potable well in the Upper Aquifer. Long-term efforts to incorporate surface water supplies into the City’s water supply portfolio are described in the following subsection.

6.5.2 Long-Term Surface Water Supplies
Long-term planning efforts have evaluated the potential to incorporate surface water supplies to improve water quality, comply with regulatory requirements, and reduce reliance on Lower Aquifer pumping under SGMA. As part of the 2025 Chrome 6 Feasibility Study Update3(currently still in draft form), the City evaluated surface water integration at a conceptual level as a long‑term strategy to supplement groundwater supplies, support chrome 6 compliance, and enhance overall supply reliability.

Two surface water sources were considered: imported water from the California Aqueduct and surface water obtained from a local irrigation district, primarily sourced from the San Joaquin River. Both alternatives would require construction of a new centralized surface water treatment plant and conveyance facilities, 3 A summary of the Draft Chrome 6 Feasibility Study is available for viewing at https://www.pattersonca.gov/888/Chromium-6-Informational-Page Packet Pg. 492
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with treated surface water blended with groundwater prior to distribution. The California Aqueduct option benefits from relatively consistent water quality and established regulatory precedent for potable use and was estimated to be implementable within approximately five to seven years. The local irrigation district option could also reduce long‑term groundwater dependence but presents greater challenges due to highly variable water quality, limited potable‑use data, and longer anticipated permitting and implementation timelines of ten years or more.

Under both surface water alternatives, interim groundwater treatment would be required to meet near‑term water quality regulations until surface water facilities become operational. While surface water supplies are not currently available to the City, the feasibility study concluded that they represent viable long‑term options to diversify the City’s supply portfolio, reduce groundwater pumping, and improve resilience to future water quality and sustainability constraints, subject to further evaluation, water supply agreements, and regulatory approvals. For high-level UWMP purposes, a surface water expansion that provides up to 6,000 AFY of surface water (based on 2025 draft Chrome 6 Feasibility Study) is assumed to come online in 2045.

Table 6-8 includes information regarding expected future water supply projects during the 2025-2050 planning period.

TABLE 6-8: EXPECTED FUTURE WATER SUPPLY PROJECTS OR PROGRAMS (DWR TABLE 6-7) Name of Future Projects
or Programs
Joint Project with
other suppliers?
Potable or NonPotable (after
treatment if
treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Planned
Implementation
Year
Planned
for Use
in Year
Type
Expected
Increase in
Water Supply
to Supplier
(AF)
(yes/no)
If Yes,
Supplier
Name
Del Puerto Creek
Recharge and Recovery
Project
Yes To be
determined Potable 2030 All Year Types 1,550
Tertiary Treatment
Upgrade and Connection
to Non-Potable System
No Non-Potable 2035 All Year
Types 214
Surface Water Expansion Yes To be
determined Potable 2040 – 2050 Average Year 6,000
Near-Term Purchase of
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Table 6-9 includes information regarding actual water supplies delivered in 2025.

TABLE 6-9: WATER SUPPLIES – ACTUAL (DWR TABLE 6-8)
Water Supply
Additional
Description
(as needed)
2025
Potable or NonPotable
(after treatment if
treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Actual
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
(AF)
Groundwater (not desalinated) Potable 4,033
Groundwater (not desalinated) Non-Potable 488
Subtotal Potable 4,033 0
Subtotal Non-Potable 488 0
Total 4,521 0
Table 6-10 includes projected water supplies over the 2025-2050 planning period.

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TABLE 6-10: WATER SUPPLIES — PROJECTED (DWR TABLE 6-9)
Water Supply Additional Detail
on Water Supply
Potable or
Non-Potable
(after treatment
if treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Projected Water Supply (Report to the Extent Practicable) 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (opt)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota
Subbasin - Lower
Aquifer 1
Potable 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626
Other (optional)
Del Puerto Creek
Recharge and
Recovery Project 2
Potable 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota
Subbasin - Upper
Aquifer 3
Potable 0 295 707 0 0
Surface water (not
desalinated)
Surface Water
Expansion 4
Potable 0 0 0 6,000 6,000
Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota
Subbasin - Upper
Aquifer 5
Non-Potable 677 677 677 677 677
Surface water (not
desalinated)
As-needed
purchase for nonpotable uses 6Non-Potable 56 216 377 538 557 Subtotal Potable 4,176 4,471 4,883 10,176 10,176
Subtotal Non-Potable 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Total 4,909 5,364 5,937 11,391 11,410
NOTES:
(1) Groundwater in the Lower Aquifer is subject to a 460 AFY reduction from baseline pumping as of 2030 per requirements in the Northern Delta-Mendota Region Pumping Reduction Plan. The Model-estimated baseline pumping by the City from the Lower Aquifer from WY 2019-2023 is 3,086 AFY. This results in an annual projected groundwater availability of 2,626 AFY from the Lower Aquifer.

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(2) The Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project is anticipated to come online by the end of 2030 and provide up to 1,550 AFY of supply for groundwater basin recharge from two sources (stormwater and surface water reservoir releases). (3) The City anticipates pumping and treating water from the Upper Aquifer to potable standards to meet increasing potable demands from around 2027 through whenever surface water expansion (treatment) can be implemented. The volume of potable supplies from the Upper Aquifer is estimated in this table from 2030- 2040 based on the projected shortfall between projected demands potable supplies from the Lower Aquifer & Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project. (4) For projection purposes, the City assumes a surface water expansion project will add treated surface water supply of up to 6,000 AFY starting in 2045 (volume based on the draft Chrome 6 Feasibility Study).
(5) Groundwater in the Upper Aquifer is estimated based on total production capability of an assumed single non-potable well that will continue to serve non-potable uses once the remaining non-potable wells have treatment added for potable needs. For purpose of this table, Floragold well at 840 gallons per minute (GPM) is assumed with a 12-hour per day runtime (677 AFY).
(6) The City anticipates purchasing surface water, at least in the near term, to supplement non-potable demands beyond what can be served by a single non-potable well in the Upper Aquifer.

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6.6 Climate Change Considerations
Future climate change conditions are expected to affect regional water supplies across California and could pose challenges for the City of Patterson over time. Although the City is not anticipated to experience direct impacts such as increased flooding or sea level rise, projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may alter the timing, intensity, and total volume of rainfall and runoff within the region. These changes could influence riverine flow regimes, surface water availability within the San Joaquin Valley, and naturally-occurring subbasin recharge, potentially affecting the reliability of regional water sources used to supplement local supplies. Potential climate change impacts on City water demands are addressed in Section 4.5.

A key concern for future water supply reliability is the anticipated reduction in Sierra Nevada snowpack as a result of climate change. Decreased snowpack is expected to reduce inflows to the Bay-Delta system and connected reservoirs, lakes, and streams, limiting surface water availability throughout dry seasons. Reduced surface water reliability may increase reliance on groundwater, particularly for large agricultural water users, which could contribute to greater-than-anticipated groundwater level declines. These conditions may require the Subbasin GSAs to reassess safe yield assumptions and update GSP management actions over time. While this trend presents challenges, continued improvements in irrigation efficiency within the agricultural sector may help reduce overall water demand. The City plans to address long-term climaterelated water supply risks through coordinated planning, monitoring of water quality and groundwater conditions, and future updates to the Delta-Mendota Subbasin GSP.

Climate change is further explored in Appendix D.

6.7 Energy Intensity
DWR has provided guidance to urban water suppliers in the preparation of their 2025 UWMPs about providing a calculation or estimation of the energy intensity associated with providing water supply to its customers.

Water energy intensity is the total amount of energy, calculated on a whole system basis, required for the use of a given amount of water in a specific location (Wilkinson, 2000). This guidance provides a methodology and tools for calculating the operational energy intensity, which is defined as the total amount of energy expended by the urban water supplier on a per acre-foot (AF) basis to take water from the location where the urban water supplier acquires the water to its point of delivery. Energy intensity is typically accounted for as kWh/AF.

For the purposes of the required water energy reporting for urban water management plans, urban water suppliers are only expected to report the energy intensity associated with water management processes occurring within their operational control. Any energy embedded in water supplies by an upstream water supplier (such as a water wholesaler) is not intended to be included in the reported energy intensity.

The City’s energy intensity information for providing water service and collecting and treating associated wastewater flows is included in the energy intensity table required by DWR for compliant 2025 UWMPs. The City is providing energy intensity data for calendar year 2024 to complete the DWR tables using the total utility approach.

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Table 6-11 below summarizes water delivery volumes and associated energy use for the City’s water management operations during calendar year 2024. It presents total utility water volumes, energy consumption, and calculated energy intensity for groundwater supplied under the City’s operational control, including both potable and non-potable uses.

TABLE 6-11: WATER SUPPLY ENERGY INTENSITY (CALENDAR YEAR 2024, DWR TABLE O-1B) Table 6-12 below summarizes wastewater and recycled water volumes, energy consumption, and energy intensity for the City’s wastewater management operations during calendar year 2024 . Data are organized by water management process: collection and conveyance, treatment, and discharge/distribution.

Water Delivery Product
drop down list
(If delivering more than one type of product recommend
using Table O-1C)
Multiple
Products (if
unable to use
table O-1C)
Start Date of Reporting Period 1/1/2024
End Date of Reporting Period 12/31/2024
Is upstream embedded energy in the values reported? No
Units of Measure for Water AF
Total Utility
See DWR NOTES
Hydropower Net Utility
4,521 - 4,521
2,150,521 - 2,150,521
1,460 - 1,460
Quantity of Self-Generated Renewable Energy
0 kWh
Data Quality (Estimate, Metered Data, Combination of Estimates and Metered Data) Metered Data
Data Quality Narrative:

Narrative:

Energy Intensity (kWh/vol. converted to MG)
This dataset contains metered energy data requested from the City's energy provider and water volume data from metered measurements of calendar year 2024's total groundwater pumped by the City. Each energy meter was categorized as water vs wastewater, as well as by wastewater management process.

The “volume of water entering process” consists of both potable and non-potable groundwater pumped. The “energy consumed” derives from well pumps as well as booster pumps for tanks and the distribution system.

Only for Water Delivery Products Under the Urban Water Supplier's Operational Control
Sum of All Water Management
Processes
Non-Consequential Hydropower
Volume of Water Entering Process
Energy Consumed (kWh)
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TABLE 6-12: WASTERWATER ENERGY INTENSITY (CALENDAR YEAR 2024, DWR TABLE O-2) Start Date of Reporting Period 1/1/202
4 Only for Water Delivery Products Under the
Urban Water Supplier's Operational Control
End Date of Reporting Period 12/31/2
024
Is upstream embedded energy in the values
reported? No Water Management Process
Units of Measure for Water AF
Collection /
Conveyanc
e
Treatmen
t
Discharge /
Distributio
n
Total
Volume of Wastewater Entering Process (AF) 1,930 1,930 3,861 Wastewater Energy Consumed (kWh) 9,288 1,376,008 - 1,385,296 Wastewater Energy Intensity (kWh/volume converted
to MG) 14.8 2,187.6 0.0 1,101.2
Volume of Recycled Water Entering Process (volume
units selected above) 0 0 0 0
Recycled Water Energy Consumed (kWh) 0 0 0 0
Recycled Water Energy Intensity (kWh/volume
converted to MG) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quantity of Self-Generated Renewable
Energy related to recycled water and
wastewater operations
0 kWh
Data Quality (drop down)
Metered Data
Data Quality Narrative:

This dataset contains metered energy data requested from the City's energy provider and wastewater volume data from metered measurements of wastewater collected and treated by the City. Each energy meter was categorized as water vs wastewater, as well as by wastewater management process.

Narrative:

The “volume of water entering process” is based on metered measurements of wastewater collected the City’s Water Quality Control Facility (WQCF). The “energy consumed” for Collection/Conveyance derives from three lift stations, while the “energy consume” for Treatment comes from energy meters at the WQCF. No energy is known to be used in Discharge/Distribution (percolation ponds). The City does not currently produce recycled water.

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7. WATER SERVICE RELIABILITY AND DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT This chapter describes the overall water service reliability of the City’s water supply in current and future water years and assesses the resiliency of the City’s water portfolio during drought and water shortage conditions.

7.1 Introduction
The City currently relies solely on groundwater from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin for its water supply. As discussed in Section 6, the Subbasin has been characterized as a high priority (in critically overdraft conditions) by DWR and must be properly managed to ensure a sustainable water supply for current and future water needs.

As part of ongoing SGMA implementation, the City participates in and is subject to the Northern Delta‑Mendota Region PRP which implements pumping reductions phased in from 2025 to 2030 to begin correcting overdraft conditions. Under this framework, the City is required to reduce its Lower Aquifer pumping by approximately 460 AFY by 2030. These reductions were calculated to be proportional to the City’s contribution to basin pumping and reflect its relatively minor share of total groundwater use in the region. The model-estimated baseline pumping by the City from the Lower Aquifer is 3,086 AFY, averaged across Water Years 2019-2023, meaning that 3,086 – 460 = 2,626 AFY is available long-term (2030 and after) from the Lower Aquifer. 2,626 AFY is used in projections for this UWMP as the reasonably available in average, single-dry, and five consecutive dry years.

For the Upper Aquifer pumping, a volume of approximately 2,000 AFY is assumed to be reasonably available in all years types based on running the pumps for the existing non-potable wells 12 hours per day. As described in Section 6.5, 677 AFY is assumed to be reasonably available for non-potable uses, while the City anticipates starting to treat some portion of Upper Aquifer pumping to serve to potable uses when other potable supplies are not sufficient to meet potable demands.

The City also monitors current and future water quality regulations that could impact the City’s groundwater system reliability. Chrome 6 concentrations in groundwater from the Lower Aquifer were above the 10 µg/L MCL standard established by the State of California in 2024. The City has a Compliance Plan in place with the California DDW and is currently evaluating treatment options to address Chrome 6 loads. The City is also monitoring nitrate and 1,2,3-Trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP) levels that have the potential to impact the City’s current groundwater supplies.

The Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery project is still under development but anticipated to be online by 2030. It is expected to be served by both stormwater and surface water components as sources of supply, both of which are more dependent on hydrologic variability as compared to groundwater. For the reliability analysis, the assumptions described below were made about supply availability from the stormwater and surface water components of the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery project which is assumed to provide 1,550 AFY of total supply in normal years (750 AFY from stormwater and 800 AFY from surface water).
• Single dry year:
o Stormwater: 491 AF – Based on precipitation data collected at the Patterson CIMIS Station for Water Years 2000-2017, precipitation in dry and critically dry years (San Joaquin water Packet Pg. 500
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year index) is 65% of average year precipitation of 12.2 inches per year. Thus, the 750 AF of average year supply available from stormwater is assumed to be 750 * 65% = 491 AF. o Surface water: 800 AF; single-dry years are assumed to result in no reduction of available supply from Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir.
• Five consecutive dry years:
o Stormwater: 491 AF – same assumption as a single-dry year; during the 2012-2016 multiyear drought, precipitation was variable but was similar to the overall average of dry and critically dry years.
o Surface water: the first year of a 5 consecutive dry year cycle is assumed to provide the full assumption of 800 AF of surface water supply. In subsequent years, the City assumes water will be available from Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir, but at a reduced rate similar to reductions in allocations made for South of Delta urban contractors from the Central Valley Project during the 2012-2016 drought (70% of supply allocation in 2013 as year 2, 50% in 2014 as year 3, 25% in 2015 as year 4, and 55% in 2016 as year 5).

For purpose of this UWMP reliability analysis, the “surface water expansion” supply source (see Section 6.5) is assumed to have no reduction in a single-dry year and the same reductions in a five consecutive dry year cycle as was described for surface water in the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery project. The “Asneeded purchase for non-potable uses” surface water supply source is assumed to be sufficient to meet non-potable demands in all year types.

7.2 Water Service Reliability Assessment
The following DWR reporting tables depict the City’s water reliability assessment showing water demands and water supply availability for various water supply scenarios. Table 7-1 depicts normal year supply and demand conditions through 2050 indicating the City has adequate supplies to meet future water needs during normal year conditions. Table 7-2 shows the same comparison for potable only, while Table 7-3 shows only non-potable supplies and demands.

TABLE 7-1: NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-2) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,909 5,364 5,937 11,391 11,410
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762
Note – Required DWR Table 7-2 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

TABLE 7-2: NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,176 4,471 4,883 10,176 10,176
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762
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TABLE 7-3: NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
Table 7-4 depicts single dry year supply and demand conditions through 2050. Table 7-5 shows the same table for potable supplies and demands only, with Table 7-6 only including non-potable supplies and demands.

Groundwater supplies are not impacted in a single dry year. Future stormwater supplies are assumed to be reduced somewhat, as described earlier in Section 7.1. Future surface water supplies are not assumed to be reduced in a single dry year. The water demands in a single-dry year are expected to be equivalent to an average year, as billing records and State-wide trends indicate that there is limited water use reduction in a single dry year due to delayed reaction to the limited rainfall.

For years 2030-2040, due to assumed reductions in stormwater, there is a shortfall ranging from 158-263 AFY. The City anticipates temporarily pumping and treating additional groundwater from the Upper Aquifer as a WSCP supply augmentation shortage response action to meet unconstrained demands.

TABLE 7-4: SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-3) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 11,129 11,148
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Note – Required DWR Table 7-3 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

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TABLE 7-5: SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
TABLE 7-6: SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
Table 7-8 depicts supply and demand conditions through 2050 for a multiple dry year scenario (five consecutive dry years), similar to the 2012-2016 drought cycle. Table 7-9 shows the same table with potable supplies and demands only, while Table 7-10 shows only non-potable supplies and demands.

Groundwater supplies are not impacted in the five consecutive dry year scenario. Future stormwater supplies are assumed to be reduced in every year, while future surface water supplies are reduced in years 2-5 as described earlier in Section 7.1. To be conservative, the water demands across all years of the scenario are assumed to be equivalent to an average year (“unconstrained”).

Table 7-7 summarizes, by shortage year, the reasons for the shortage and the corresponding water shortage response actions anticipated.

TABLE 7-7: MULTIPLE DRY YEAR SCENARIO FACTORS
Dry Year
#
Reason for
Shortage Supply Augmentation Demand Reduction
1 Reduction in
stormwater
Temporarily increased Upper Aquifer
pumping & treatment (2030-2040 only)
None anticipated
2 Reduction in
stormwater and
surface water
supplies
Temporarily increased Upper Aquifer
pumping & treatment (2030-2040 only)
10% reduction
3 Temporarily increased Upper Aquifer
pumping & treatment (2030-2040 only)
10% reduction
4 None anticipated 20% reduction
5 None anticipated 15% reduction
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TABLE 7-8: MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-4) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
First year
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 9,029 11,148
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 2,513 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 4,613 4,500
Second
year
Supply totals 4,407 4,862 5,435 9,089 9,108
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0 2,573 2,460
Third
year
Supply totals 4,247 4,702 5,275 7,729 7,748
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 1,213 1,100
Fourth
year
Supply totals 4,047 4,502 5,075 6,029 6,048
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482
Fifth
year
Supply totals 4,287 4,742 5,315 8,069 10,788
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110 1,553 4,140
Note – Required DWR Table 7-4 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

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TABLE 7-9: MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
First
year
Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Second
year
Supply totals 3,674 3,969 4,381 7,874 7,874
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0
Third
year
Supply totals 3,514 3,809 4,221 6,514 6,514
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Fourth
year
Supply totals 3,314 3,609 4,021 4,814 4,814
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482
Fifth
year
Supply totals 3,554 3,849 4,261 6,854 9,554
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110
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TABLE 7-10: MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030
(AF)
2035
(AF)
2040
(AF)
2045
(AF)
2050
(AF)
First
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Second
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Third
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Fourth
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Fifth
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)

7.3 Drought Risk Assessment
The Drought Risk Assessment (DRA) is an evaluation of local water supply availability, assuming the next five years (2026-2030) are hydrologically equivalent to the driest five consecutive years on record. As required by the regulation, this section provides a description of the data and methods used for the DRA, the basis for determining supply shortage conditions, a determination of the reliability of each water supply Packet Pg. 506
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source, and a comparison of the total water supplies and uses, assuming the next five years are hydrologically equivalent to the driest five consecutive years on record.

To estimate water use for 2026-2030, the City used historic and projected water use data. Water use was estimated at “unconstrained” levels. Unconstrained refers to anticipated water use under normal water year conditions when the City is not experiencing a water shortage. To estimate unconstrained demand for 2026- 2030, the City considered historic water use and the projected demand for 2030, which takes into account estimated growth, as described in Section 4.2. For the portion of the “existing” service area without the Zacharias Baldwin development, demands for 2026-2029 were linearly interpolated between 2025 actuals and 2030 projected demands. Demands for the Zacharias Baldwin development are assumed to first come online in 2029, before reaching the 2030 projected value from Section 4.2, meaning 0 AFY of demands 2026-2028.

Potable and non-potable groundwater supplies are not anticipated to be impacted during a dry period occurring over the next five years. However, potable groundwater supply over the next five years 2026-2030 is subject to incremental reductions in pumping from the Lower Aquifer of the Delta-Mendota Subbasin under the Northern Delta‑Mendota Region PRP. Pumping reductions scale from 92 AFY in 2025 to 460 AFY in 2030. The model-estimated baseline pumping from the Lower Aquifer from Water Years 2019-2023 is 3,086 AFY. Thus the 2025 available Lower Aquifer supply is assumed to be 2,994 AF and 2030 available supply is 2,626 AF, with 2026-2029 linearly interpolated between those values.

Pumping from the Upper Aquifer to meet non-potable demands is shown to be equal to non-potable demands, as the City expects enough non-potable supplies to be available to meet these demands in any year type.

The City anticipates transitioning some Upper Aquifer supplies from serving non-potable demands to serving potable demands (after treatment is added) in the next 1-2 years, as described further in Section

6.5. Table 7-11 contains the results of the drought risk assessment. In 2026, before the Upper Aquifer wellhead treatment is added, a shortfall of approximately 757 AF is expected, but will be addressed through the implementation of the demand reduction shortage response actions in the City’s WSCP. Starting in 2027, wellhead treatment in the Upper Aquifer is expected to provide enough potable supplies to meet potable demands while other water supply projects are implemented to come online starting in 2030.

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TABLE 7-11: DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DWR TABLE 7-5)
2026 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,215 3,678 537
Total Supplies (AF) 3,457 2,920 537
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) (757) 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 757
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0
2027 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,284 3,698 586
Total Supplies (AF) 4,284 3,698 586
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2028 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,352 3,717 635
Total Supplies (AF) 4,352 3,717 635
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2029 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,578 3,894 684
Total Supplies (AF) 4,579 3,895 684
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2030 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,804 4,071 733
Total Supplies (AF) 4,804 4,071 733
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0

7.4 Regional Supply Reliability
The Westside-San Joaquin Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP, adopted in 2019 and amended in 2024) describes the region’s water supplies and water management practices. According to DWR, the region is heavily groundwater reliant, with groundwater accounting for about 30 percent of the annual supply used for agricultural and urban purposes in the region.

Regular users of local groundwater include the City of Patterson, local irrigation districts, other local cities and communities, and private land owners, though the irrigation districts use mostly surface water, including Central Valley Project and California Aqueduct water supplies, and rely on groundwater primarily for a backup supply. During most years, the irrigation districts in the region have ample surface water supplies to meet the majority of their water needs except during critical dry years when there are surface water cutbacks which increase their reliance on local groundwater supplies. The regular application of surface water to large irrigation district lands provides a regular recharge element to augment natural groundwater recharge sources.

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The region has implemented and encourages a number of methods to reduce water demand and manage its water resources. Westside-San Joaquin IRWMP participating agencies promote urban and agricultural water use efficiency through fixture or hardware replacements, water-use tracking, evapotranspiration reduction measures, and, for urban users, plumbing and building code updates. Additionally, the region seeks to reduce conveyance losses through vigilant canal and pipeline maintenance. Aside from reducing water loss and demands, the Westside-San Joaquin IRWMP region also has plans in place to improve and manage water quality through collaborative projects and programs. The Westside Regional Drainage Plan lays the groundwork for controlling salt loads and selenium discharges to the San Joaquin River, which could have devastating effects on the local economy. Participating agencies also promote modification of production processes to eliminate or reduce high-toxicity substances. Reducing pollution both improves water quality in the region and eliminates the cost for treatment that would be required once pollution occurs (RMC, 2014). More information on regional water supply reliability planning and implementation actions can be found in the Westside Stanislaus IRWMP available online at the following website link:
https://www.pattersonca.gov/668/Integrated-Regional-Water-Management-Pla A summary of regional water supply reliability actions follows from the IRWMP (amended 2024) is found in Table 7-12.

TABLE 7-12: SUMMARY OF REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY ACTIONS Source: 2024 Westside-San Joaquin IRWMP Table 4-2
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8. WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN
See Appendix E for the Water Shortage Contingency Plan.

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9. DEMAND MANAGEMENT MEASURES
This chapter presents an analysis of the Demand Management Measures (DMMs) utilized by the City. A DMM is a program or action designed to maximize the efficient use of water and minimize water waste. The City’s water use efficiency program has been developed and managed with the idea that water use efficiency is part of its long-term water supply portfolio. Past, current, and future measures are addressed in this chapter. Historically, the City was a California Urban Water Conservation Council (CUWCC) member in good standing and has shown a commitment to using its water resources wisely. The CUWCC was sunset in the late 2010s and replaced by the California Water Efficiency Partnership.

9.1 DMM Implementation Over The Past Five Years
The City is a retail urban water supplier and in accordance with CWC Section 10631 must address DMMs implemented over the past five years including the following:

1. Water Waste Prevention Ordinances

2. Metering

3. Conservation Pricing

4. Public Education and Outreach

5. Programs to Assess and Manage Distribution System Real Loss

6. Water Conservation Program Coordination and Staffing Support

7. Other DMMs that reduce long-term per capita water demands Table 9-1 summarizes the City’s DMMs implemented over the past five years, with further description found in the following subsections. Many of the DMMs have been in place for over a decade. The City has also focused on expanding non-potable water sources to offset future potable water demands.

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TABLE 9-1: SUMMARY OF DEMAND MANAGEMENT MEASURES
DMM City Action
In Place
Last 5
Years
Water Waste Ordinance Water Waste Ordinance adopted as part of the City Municipal Code ( §13.24.240) and enforced as needed.

The ordinance outlines fines and potential
discontinuation of service following wasteful or
negligent use of water.

Yes
Metering All City water services are metered, and all new water services are required to install meters. In 2024, the City completed construction of its upgraded AMI Metering
System, discussed in Section 9.1.1.

Yes
Conservation Pricing Two-tier inclining rate structure in place for residential accounts.

Yes
Public Education/Outreach Local and regional public education and outreach efforts to support the City’s water use efficiency and
resource management programs, discussed in Section

9.1.2. Yes
Water Loss Control Program
Complying With SB 555 provisions and developing
programs to reduce City total water losses. The City
recently completed a Citywide Leak Detection Survey,
identifying two leaks on main water lines that the City can now repair.

Annual Validated Water Audits: 2015-2025.

Yes
Water Conservation Staffing The City has a water conservation coordinator with team support from utility billing for rates and water
distribution staff for field services.

Yes
Other DMMs that reduce per
capita water use
Customer plumbing fixture/appliance retrofit to current Green Code Standards.

Turfgrass and high-efficiency toilet (HET) replacement
rebate programs.

Mandatory Outdoor Water Use schedule.

Water Use Surveys compliant with SB 407
Conversion to non-potable irrigation uses where
feasible.

Yes
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9.1.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Program
In 2024, the City completed its Metering System Replacement Project, replacing aging mechanical meters with upgraded meters and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) that records customer water consumption on a 15-minute frequency. The replacements support statewide conservation goals, reduce system water loss, and better manage the City’s groundwater resources. Through the associated customer portal (EyeOnWater), customers can monitor their water use in real time, promptly identify leaks, and access resources to manage their water use.

9.1.2 Public Outreach and Education
The City maintains an up-to-date website featuring a variety of educational materials promoting efficient water use. Specific pages include an Indoor Water Use Conservation Guide, Outdoor Water Use Conservation Guide, Water Wise Gardening Tips, and links to regional education resources. The City also utilizes a number of social media accounts to promote community involvement and spread awareness of its water conservation programs. The City provides additional water conservation tips through the EyeOnWater customer portal, which allows customers to monitor their water use in real time. Printed educational materials are available to the public at city offices. The City also staffs in-person educational booths at a variety of community fairs and school events in the area.

9.1.3 Other Demand Management Measures
The City implements other DMMs including rebate programs, water use surveys, and a mandatory outdoor water use schedule. The City also offers free water-conserving fixtures such as low flow aerators, showerheads, and toilet leak detection kits. The two rebate programs, including participation and estimated water savings, are summarized below.

9.1.3.1 HET Replacement Program
The City’s High-Efficiency Toilet (HET) replacement program intends to expedite the conversion of older housing stock plumbing fixtures to new California Green Code Standards. The City estimates that replacing a high-use water toilet with a new HET can save about 38 gallons of water per day. The program has been active since 2016, with 18 toilets replaced between 2021-2025. The City’s demand forecast model (as described in Section 4.4) estimates the water savings from ongoing natural replacement of old toilets and other fixtures without participating in a rebate program.

9.1.3.2 Cash for Grass Replacement Program
The City’s “Cash for Grass” turf replacement program intends to encourage the conversion of landscaped turf areas, especially those with passive uses, to low water using landscaping with low volume irrigation systems and water efficient practices, such as mulching. From 2021-2025, the City provide a total rebate of $20,266 which resulted in the conversion of 20,266 square feet or turf. Note that the program has been active in prior years as well. Estimated water savings from the program total 607,980 gallons per year, assuming that customers maintained eligible irrigated turf areas until the rebate application is approved and that replacement landscape lowers water usage by 30 gallons per square foot - more than a 50% water savings.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 9-4 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

9.2 Planned Implementation To Achieve Water Use Targets The City of Patterson has already met its 2020 water use target (as described in Chapter 5) through implementation of the DMMs summarized in Section 9.1, many of which have been in place since 2015. The rebate programs had significant participation between 2016 and 2020, with 37 toilets and over 241,000 square feet of turf replaced.

However, the City is wary of any post-drought water use bounces or any increases in per capita water use.

While the City has drastically reduced its per capita water use since 2013, DMMs will continue to be implemented to ensure the City can continue to meet its water use goals. A summary of the DMMs the City will be focusing on over the next five years are listed in Table 9-2.

TABLE 9-2: SUMMARY OF PLANNED DMMS
DMM City Action In Place Next
5 Years
Water Waste Ordinance Continue City Water Waste Ordinance and enforce as needed. Yes
Metering Continue metering with the upgraded AMI Metering System.

Yes
Conservation-Oriented
Rates
Update City water rates and maintain conservationoriented rate structure for residential and irrigation accounts.

Yes
Public Education/Outreach
Continue local and regional public education and
outreach efforts to support the City’s water use
efficiency and resource management programs.

Yes
Water Loss Control
Program
Met water loss standard and maintain Infrastructure Leak Index (ILI) between 1-3 by 2028.

Continue annual validated water audits.

Yes
Water Conservation
Staffing
Continue City conservation coordinator with team
support from utility billing for rates and water
distribution staff for field services.

Yes
Other DMMs that reduce
per capita water use
Continue plumbing fixture/appliance retrofit and
turfgrass replacement rebate programs.

Fix leaky pipes and other leak sources.

Continue Mandatory Outdoor Water Use schedule.

Continue Water Use Surveys compliant with SB 407.

Yes
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 9-5 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

9.3 Future/Ongoing Conservation Requirements
Two relatively new pieces of legislation will impact conservation requirements and implementation of DMMs in the City, as described below.

The Making Conservation a California Way of Life legislature went into effect on January 1, 2025 for all urban retail water suppliers based on legislation adopted in 2018 via AB 1668 and SB 606. The legislation requires that suppliers meet an annual Urban Water Use Objective based on specific service area conditions and standard-based budgets, which include standards for residential indoor and outdoor uses, water loss, and CII landscapes with dedicated irrigation meters. The regulation also requires the City to adopt a number of Performance Measures and conservation Best Management Practices in the CII sector. Per regulation requirements, the City submits an annual report to the DWR summarizing its actual versus target water use.

The most recent report, submitted January 2026, demonstrates that the City met its calculated objective for Fiscal Year 2024-2025. It is the City’s intent to utilize existing DMMs and develop new customer offerings as needed to comply with regulation deadlines and continue to meet its water use objective.

Additionally, Turf Irrigation Restrictions were adopted in 2023 as a result of AB 1572 which prohibits the use of potable water to irrigate non-functional (ornamental) turf on non-residential properties, excluding areas that are irrigated with recycled water. Compliance is required starting January 2027, with tiered compliance deadlines depending on property type.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 10-1 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

10. PLAN ADOPTION, SUBMITTAL AND IMPLEMENTATION
The chapter provides information on the City’s actions to adopt its Final 2025 UWMP and WSCP and submit the final adopted documents to DWR and other agencies as required in the Guidebook. Information on planned implementation is also included to achieve plan objectives prior to the 2030 UWMP update process.

10.1 Inclusion of 2025 Data
The City’s 2025 UWMP updates the City’s 2020 UWMP and includes all information necessary to meet the requirements of CWC, Division 6, Part 2.6. The City acts as an urban, retail public water system with 7,694 water service connections and providing more than 4,000 AF of water supplied annually (Table 2-1). Data collected and used for this plan update included City water production, water consumption, water audit, energy, and wastewater flow data for calendar year 2025.

10.2 Notice of Public Hearing
The City held a public hearing on June 16, 2026 prior to adopting its Final 2025 UWMP and WSCP. The City published public notices in the Patterson Irrigator newspaper 14 and 7 days prior to the scheduled public hearing for the documents. The City also notified the County and local interested parties at least 60 days prior to when the public hearing was held to review the 2025 UWMP. Copies of all public notices are available in Appendix A and on the City’s website with other 2025 UWMP update documentation.

Table 10-1 contains a list of interested parties that the City notified of its intent to prepare the 2025 UWMP/WSCP and when the City Council would be conducting a public hearing prior to adopting the documents.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 10-2 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
TABLE 10-1: NOTIFICATION TO CITIES AND COUNTIES (DWR TABLE 10-1) City Name 60 Day Notice Notice of Public
Hearing
Cities
City of Dos Palos Yes Yes
City of Firebaugh Yes Yes
City of Gustine Yes Yes
City of Los Banos Yes Yes
City of Mendota Yes Yes
City of Newman Yes Yes
Water and Irrigation Districts
Aliso Water District Yes Yes
Farmers Water District Yes Yes
Grassland Water District Yes Yes
Oro Loma Water District Yes Yes
Patterson Irrigation District Yes Yes
Turner Island Water District Yes Yes
Widren Water District Yes Yes
Other Agencies
Central Delta-Mendota Region MultiAgency Yes Yes
DM-II GSA1 Yes Yes
West Stanislaus Irrigation District GSA Yes Yes
San Joaquin River Exchange Contractors
Water Authority Yes Yes
San Luis Delta Mendota Water Authority Yes Yes
County Name 60 Day Notice Notice of Public
Hearing
Fresno County Yes Yes
Madera County Yes Yes
Merced County Yes Yes
San Joaquin County Yes Yes
Stanislaus County2 Yes Yes
NOTES:
1 The DM-II GSA includes Del Puerto Water District and Oak Flat Water District. 2 Stanislaus County is the only City or County that the City of Patterson is required to notify related to the 2025 UWMP.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 10-3 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

10.3 Public Hearing and Adoption
The City prepared its Draft 2025 UWMP and WSCP and made the associated documents available for a 30- day public review period (from May 18 through June 16, 2026). The Draft plans were made available to the community and interested parties on its website at the following link:
http://www.ci.patterson.ca.us/669/Urban-Water-Management-Plan. Comments were encouraged by interested parties during the public review period and at the public hearing. Two comment letters were received. Copies of the letters and the comment response can be found in Appendix F.

A public hearing was conducted to present the 2025 UWMP and WSCP to the City Council on June 16, 2026 and to hear any further public comments, though no further comments were received. After the public review period and incorporation of any necessary changes, a Final 2025 UWMP and Final WSCP were prepared and adopted via resolution at a subsequent Board meeting on July 21, 2026 per DWR 2025 UWMP Guidebook requirements. A copy of the adopted resolution can be found in Appendix A.

The City’s 2025 UWMP will be submitted to DWR electronically through DWR’s online submittal tool (WUE data portal) prior to the July 1, 2026 submittal deadline. Once adopted and submitted to DWR, copies of the City’s adopted 2025 UWMP and WSCP will be provided to the California State Library within 30 days of adoption as required by CWC Section 10644(a). Additionally, notice will be given to parties included in Table 10-1 above that the City’s 2025 UWMP has been adopted and is available to view on the City’s website at the link cited above.

If the City makes any modifications or amendments to the adopted 2025 UWMP or WSCP, it will go through the process of notification, public hearing, adoption, and submittal to DWR as described in Section 10.6 below for the amended plan.

10.4 Plan Submittal
The City prepared and submitted the Final 2025 UWMP and WSCP documents, including all required DWR data tables, to DWR through the DWR online portal submittal process prior to July 1, 2026. The City formally adopted its 2025 UWMP and WSCP on July 21, 2026.

10.5 Public Availability
The City’s Final 2025 UWMP and WSCP were prepared, adopted and submitted to DWR and made available to the County, community and other interested parties on the City’s website at the link cited above within 30 days of filing.

All parties were notified of the public availability of the City’s adopted 2025 UWMP and WSCP within 30 days of plan adoption. The final materials are available to the public for review and downloading on an as needed basis. Any 2025 UWMP updates would be made available to the public on the City’s designated website location for easy reference and access.

10.6 Amending An Adopted UWMP or WSCP
The City will amend its 2025 UWMP and WSCP documents as needed to comply with State requirements, improve program or measure effectiveness, or update information based on changing conditions. If the City needs to amend its 2025 UWMP or WSCP, the City will follow the same procedures as listed below.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 10-4 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026

1. City staff prepares updated documents as required;

2. City makes updated documents available for public and stakeholder review on the City’s website;

3. City provide a 30-day public review period pertaining to updated documents;

4. City publishes two (2) public notices (14 and 7 days prior to City Council consideration of approving updated document changes);

5. City conducts a public hearing prior to adopting prepared updated documents;

6. Upon City Council adoption of updated documents, City submits approved updates to DWR through the DWR online portal submittal process within 30 days of adoption; and

7. City makes updated documents available to interested parties within 30 days after City Council approval of plan amendments on the City’s website at the link cited above.

10.7 2025 UWMP Implementation
The City of Patterson is committed to the implementation of its 2025 UWMP concurrent with the scheduled activities identified herein as required by Section 10643 of the Act. The City’s water supplies are managed through its Public Works Department with trained staff responsible to properly plan and implement responses identified in this document and other key planning efforts to proactively address water supply reliability challenges. Furthermore, the City has a conservation coordinator that oversees the implementation of DMMs through its on-going water conservation program. The City is committed to implementation of the projects, plans, and discussions provided within this document.

However, it is important to note that execution of the plan is contingent upon the ability to secure necessary approvals by state agencies and effectively collaborate with local and regional interested parties to garner support for proposed actions. The City’s 2025 UWMP document merely presents the water supply, reliability, and conservation programs known and in effect at the time of adoption of this plan. The City understands the limited nature of water supply in California and is committed to optimizing its available water resources.

This commitment is demonstrated through the City’s use of water management tools to promote the efficient use of water supplies from local sources, wherever feasible. The City takes steps to procure local reliable water supplies wherever feasible and cost effective to minimize and avoid dependence on imported supplies from other regions. The City is a regular participant in regional water resources planning efforts (IRWMP and GSP), and has developed internal water resource and master plans, as well as cost effective DMM programs that enable the City to meet future water use targets.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX A: PUBLIC NOTICES AND RESOLUTIONS
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DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS
e
s b.

April 8, 2026DATE:

SUBJECT:

Sincerely,
Department of Public Works
7laza
Cc: Aracely Alegre, City Clerk
TO:

FROM:

Existing state law requires each urban water supplier to prepare and adopt an urban water management plan at least once every five years. The City of Patterson (City) is currently preparing an update to its 2020 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) and Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP). Together, the UWMP and WSCP document the City’s plans to ensure adequate water supplies to meet existing and future demands for water under a range of water supply conditions, including water shortages.

Maria Encinas, CFM
Water Resources Program Manager
Notice of Plan Preparation for 2025 Urban Water Management Plan & 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan Update
As part of the UWMP process, the City is required to notify those agencies which the City receives water from, sells water to, or the County in which water is delivered (California Water Code § 10621 (b)).

Additionally, the City is notifying those agencies listed in the Northern Delta-Mendota Region Management Committee. If you receive this letter, the City is either required to notify you or has chosen to do so voluntarily.

We anticipate having draft documents available for public review beginning May 13, 2026, with a public hearing anticipated for June 16, 2026 at a regularly scheduled City Council meeting. Once available, materials available for review will be posted to the City’s website at www.pattersonca.gov.

The final documents will be submitted to the California Department of Water Resources by July 1, 2026.

If you have any questions, please contact me at (209) 895-8061 or [email protected].

All Interested Parties
Maria Encinas, Water Resources Program Manager
William Barrera
Deputy Director - Operations & Maintenance
Sonia Delgado, QSP, CESSWI
Deputy Director - Regulatory Compliance & Administrative Services City Hall: 1 Plaza, Patterson, CA 95363 • Phone: (209) 895-8060 Corporation Yard: 16215 Baldwin Road, Patterson, CA 95363 • Phone: (209) 895-8160 Water Quality Control Facility: 14901 Poplar Avenue, Patterson, CA 95363 • Phone: (209) 895-8150 Main Email Address: [email protected]
Xavier Guluarte
Interim Director of Public Works
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LEGAL NOTICE

NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN THAT THE CITY OF PATTERSON CITY
COUNCIL will hold a Public Hearing in the City Council Chamber, 1 Plaza, Patterson, CA, on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 7:00 p.m., to consider comments on the city’s 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) and Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP). The purpose of the public hearing is to provide an opportunity for interested persons to be heard regarding the city’s 2025 UWMP, which describes the city’s water supply reliability, demand management measures and long-term water resource planning. The City anticipates that the documents will be considered for adoption at the following City Council Meeting on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.

NOTICE IS ALSO HEREBY GIVEN that these documents will be available for public review beginning on or about May 15-18, 2026 or by calling Public Works at (209) 895-8060. Documents will be located at City Hall, 1 Plaza, Patterson, CA 95363 or online at www.pattersonca.gov. All interested parties are invited to review the documents prior to the closing of the Public Hearing scheduled Tuesday, June 16, 2025 meeting at 7:00 p.m.

ALL INTERESTED PARTIES are invited to attend the hearing and express their opinions. At the above noted time and place, testimony from interested persons will be heard by the City Council and duly considered prior to taking action on the variance. Any material submitted to the City Council for consideration (photographs, petitions, letters, etc.) will be retained by the City and cannot be returned. Comments may also be submitted to [email protected] anytime before the close of Public Hearing noted above.

FURTHER INFORMATION may be obtained by contacting the City Clerk’s Office of the Patterson, City Hall by email at [email protected] or by calling (209) 895-8014.

BY ORDER OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PATTERSON.

Date(s) Advertised: May 21, 2026
Aracely Alegre, City Clerk
City of Patterson
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX B: 2025 UWMP DWR DATA TABLES
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CA5010017 City of Patterson 7,694 4,033
Total 7,694 4,033
Public Water System
Number
Public Water System
Name
Number of Municipal
Connections 2025
Submittal Table 2-1 Retail: Public Water Systems
Add additional rows as needed
NOTES:

Volume of Water
Supplied 2025 (AF)
DWR NOTES:

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Select One Name of Regional Alliance or
RUWMP (Drop Down List)
NOTES:

Submittal Table 2-2: Plan Identification
Type of Plan
Individual UWMP
If Water Supplier is also a member of a SB X7-7
Regional Alliance, select name from the drop-down.

Regional Urban Water Management Plan (RUWMP)
If Supplier selected RUWMP, select name from the
drop-down.

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Supplier is a wholesale supplier
Supplier is a retail supplier
UWMP Tables are in calendar years
UWMP Tables are in fiscal years
Unit AF
Submittal Table 2-3: Supplier Identification
Type of Supplier (select one or both)
Fiscal or Calendar Year (select one)
If using fiscal years provide month and date that the fiscal year begins (mm/dd)
Units of measure used in UWMP
(Select from the drop down list).

DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES:

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Submittal Table 2-4 Retail: Water Supplier Information Exchange Water Code Section 10631(h)
The retail Supplier has informed the following wholesale supplier(s) of projected water use.

Wholesale Water Supplier Name
Add additional rows as needed
N/A
NOTES: The City of Patterson serves as its own water supplier.

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2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050(opt)
24,916 29,178 33,461 37,768 42,098 46,452
Submittal Table 3-1 Retail: Population - Current and Projected Water Code Section 10631(a)
Population
Served
NOTES: 2025 population is from the DOF and projected population based on expected local and regional urban growth rates (0.6% annually) over the 2025-2050 planning period.

Projections include anticipated population growth associated with the Zacharias Baldwin developments based on assumptions in the 2020 Water Supply Assessment and discussed further in Chapter 4.

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Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only use types that will be recognized by the WUEdata online submittal tool
Potable or Non-Potable
(OPTIONAL)
Drop down list
Volume (AF)
Single Family Potable 2,376
Multi-Family Potable 103
Commercial Potable 402
Landscape Potable 607
Landscape Non-Potable 488
Distribution System Water Loss Potable 414
3,902
488
Total 4,390
Submittal Table 4-1 Retail: Total Uses for Potable and Non-Potable Water — Actual Water Code Section 10631(d)(1)
NOTES: Distribution system water loss is based on the most recently available calendar year 2024 AWWA water loss audit calculated values. Thus, the total 2025 potable demands does not exactly match the 2025 total potable water supplied reported in DWR Table 2-1.

DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-

3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3. 2025 Actual Water Use
Add additional rows as needed
Subtotal Potable
Subtotal Non-Potable
Additional Description
(as needed)
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Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only Use Types that will be recognized
by the WUEdata online submittal tool
Potable or Non-Potable
(OPTIONAL)
Drop down list
2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 opt (AF)
Single Family Potable 2,587 2,678 2,780 2,889 2,964
Multi-Family Potable 307 504 701 897 900
Commercial Potable 440 472 503 535 548
Industrial Potable 32 64 96 127 127
Landscape Potable 501 516 532 548 565
Landscape Non-Potable 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Distribution System Water Loss Potable 204 237 271 305 310 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648

Total
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

Subtotal Non-Potable
Subtotal Potable
Add additional rows as needed.

Submittal Table 4-2 Retail: Total Uses for Potable, and Non-Potable Water — Projected Water Code Section 10631(d)(1)
Projected Water Use
(Report To the Extent that Records are Available)
NOTES:

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Are Future Water Savings Included in Projections?
Drop down list (y/n) Yes
If "Yes" to above, state the section or page number, in the cell to the right, where citations of the codes, ordinances, or otherwise are utilized in demand projections are found.

Optional Suppliers may complete Optional Submittal Table 4-4 R to quantify the expected savings.

Section 4.4
Are Lower Income Residential Demands Included In Projections? Drop down list (y/n) Yes
Optional If the method for accounting Lower Income Residential Demands has been included, provide page number where this accounting can be found.

Submittal Table 4-3 Retail: Inclusion in Water Use Projections Water Code Section 10631 (a), 10631 (d)(4)(A), and 10631 (d)(4)(B) NOTES:

DWR NOTES: Additional guidance is provided in Appendix K.

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2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 opt (AF)
65 91 110 124 136
NOTES: Passive savings estimated by device and sector using statistics and parameters described above as applied to demand forecast in Table 4 3.

Total Passive Savings
Optional Submittal Table 4-4 Retail: Passive Water Savings Projections Water Code Section 10631(d)(4)(A)
Passive savings
Add additional rows as needed
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

Description
(Codes, Standards, Ordinances, or Plans)
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Public Water System ID # Reported
in Table 2-1 R Reporting Period Submitted to DWR Water Loss Audit Program (yes/no) 2020 Yes
2021 Yes
2022 Yes
2023 Yes
2024 Yes
Submittal Table 4-5 Retail: Water Loss Audit Reporting
Water Code Section 10631(d)(3)(A)
CA5010017
DWR NOTES: Suppliers will provide a link to the WUEdata submittals of their Water Loss Audit Reports.

NOTES:

Links to Water Audits:
2020:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/2117826163/FINAL%202020%2 0AWWA%2DWAS%2Dv5%2D20201006%5Fupdatedv3%2Exls
2021:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/3231702506/FINAL%202021%2 0AWWA%2DWAS%2Dv5%2D20201006%5Fupdatedv3%5Fedits%2Exlsx
2022:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/1377210319/FWAS%20v6%2E0 %5Frelease%20version%2020210211%5FL1Validated%2Exlsx
2023:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/8803006827/2023%5FFWAS%2 Dv6%2E0%2Drelease%2Dversion%2DRR%5FValidatedv2%2Exlsx
2024:
https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/public/awwa_uploads/3049702286/City%20of%20Patt erson%5F2024%5FFWAS%5FV6%2E1%20%2Exlsx
Report submittal status for all five years for each Public Water System as available.

Add rows as needed
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2028 Real Water Loss
Standard per Unit per
day
Units for Real
Water Loss
Drop down list
Number of Units
(Connections or Miles
corresponding with
units selected)
Volume of Total Real
Loss
(from AWWA Water Loss
Audit)
(AF)
2028 Apparent Water
Loss Standard per
Unit per Day
Units for
Apparent Water
Loss
Number of
Connections
Volume of Total
Apparent Loss
(from AWWA Water
Loss Audit)
(AF)
CA5010017 Yes 14.2
Gallons per
Service
Connection per
Day (GPSCD)
7367 362 43.9 6.2
Gallons per
Service
Connection per
Day (GPSCD)
7367 52.3 6.3
Submittal Table 4-6 Retail: Progress Towards 2028 Water Loss Standard Water Code Section 10631(d)(3)(C)
NOTES: Volumes and connection data are from the City’s 2024 AWWA Water Audit, which reported 7,367 total customer connections.

Apparent Water Loss
Did the Water Board Calculate a
Water Loss Standard for this
Public Water System? (y/n)
If no, Supplier will not complete
this row.

Real Water Loss
Water Board's Calculated Water Loss Standards
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) for Water Loss MUST remain consistent with units reported in Submittal Table 2-3. The units reported in Submittal Table 2-3 are used in this table's calculations.

Public Water
System ID #
Reported in
Submittal Table 2-1
R
Add additional rows as needed.

Most Recent AWWA Water Loss Audit
Real Water
Loss Per Unit
per Day
Most Recent AWWA Water Loss Audit
Apparent Water
Loss Per Unit per
Day
State Water Board Standard State Water Board Standard
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Actual 2025 GPCD
(From SB X7-7
Compliance Form)
Did Supplier meet the
2020 Target in 2025?
No Individual Target 164 146 Yes N/A No
Submittal Table 5-1 Retail: SB X7-7 2020 Target Progress Water Code Section 10608.40
NOTES:

Did Supplier
Achieve Targeted
Reduction for
2020?
2020 Target Actual 2020 GPCD
Regional Alliance
Target or
Individual
Target?
Drop down list
DWR NOTES:

Suppliers calculating a 2025 GPCD will need to complete and submit SB X 7-7 Compliance Tables to verify the use of SB X7-7 Methodologies.

Suppliers that were part of a merger or consolidation since 2020 see Chapter 5 and Appendix P for guidance.

NA=Not Applicable
Check the box if the Supplier was not an Urban Water Supplier during or before the 2020 UWMP reporting cycle.

Proceed to the next table.

Only for suppliers that did not meet the
Target in 2020
See DWR NOTES below.

Was Supplier part of a
merger or
consolidation since
2020?
Packet Pg. 536
Groundwater Type
Drop Down List
May use each category
multiple times
Potable or
Non-Potable
(OPTIONAL)
Drop down list
Location or Basin Name 2021 (AF) 2022 (AF) 2023 (AF) 2024 (AF) 2025 (AF) Alluvial Basin Potable City of Patterson: Delta-Mendota Subbasin 3,885 4,038 3,851 3,868 4,033
Alluvial Basin Non-Potable City of Patterson: Delta-Mendota Subbasin 576 553 463 578 488
4,591 4,461 4,314 4,446 4,521
Add additional rows as needed
Submittal Table 6-1 Retail: Groundwater Volume Pumped
Water Code Section 10631(4) and 10631(4)(c)
DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES Summed rows may not match the totals due to rounding.

Total
Check the box if the Supplier does not pump groundwater.

Proceed to the next table.

Check the box if all or part of the groundwater described below is desalinated. (OPTIONAL) Packet Pg. 537
Name of Wastewater
Collection Agency
Wastewater
Volume Metered
or Estimated?

OPTIONAL
Drop Down List
Volume of Wastewater
Collected from UWMP
Service Area 2025 (AF)
Name of Wastewater
Treatment Plant (WWTP) and
Place ID Number
Drop down list
Is WWTP Located
Within UWMP
Area?
Drop Down List
City of Patterson Metered 1,909
City of Patterson WQCF, Place
ID 247782
Yes
1,909
Check the box if there is no wastewater collection system.

Proceed to the next table.

NOTES:

Submittal Table 6-2 Retail: Wastewater Collected Within Service Area Water Code Section 10633(a)
Percentage of 2025 service area population served by wastewater collection system (OPTIONAL)
Percentage of 2025 service area served by wastewater collection system (OPTIONAL) DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

Additional Guidance: See Appendix M, Section M.21 for detailed guidance on this table.

Wastewater Collection Recipient of Collected Wastewater Total Wastewater Received from UWMP
Service Area in 2025:

Add additional rows as needed
Packet Pg. 538
Treatment Level
Drop down list
Volume
(AF)
Treatment Level
Drop down list
Volume
(AF)
Treatment Level
Drop down list
Volume
(AF)
Treatment Level
Drop down list
Volume
(AF)
Treatment Level
Drop down list
Volume
(AF)
Name of other
entity
City of Patterson WQCF,
Place ID 247782 Yes 1,909 - 1,909 Secondary, Undisinfected 1,909 - - 1,909 1,909 0 0 1,909 0 0
2025 Outcomes of Treated Wastewater
Check the box if no wastewater is treated or disposed of within the UWMP service area.

Proceed to the next table.

Does This Plant
Treat
Wastewater
Generated
Outside the
UWMP Service
Area?
(OPTIONAL)
Drop down list
Wastewater Treatment
Plant Name and Place ID
Number
Drop down list
Total 2025
Volume of
Water
Treated (AF)
NOTES:

Total
2025 Volume of
Wastewater
Received from
UWMP Service
Area
(As Reported in
Submittal Table
6-2 R) (AF)
Water Recycled Within
UWMP Service Area
(enter data as applicable)
Submittal Table 6-3 Retail: Wastewater Treatment and Outcomes Within UWMP Service Area Water Code Section 10633(b)
DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

IPR: Indirect Potable Reuse would have the treatment level of its end use requirement in the Level of Treatment drop-down.

Additional Guidance: See Appendix M, Section M.21 for detailed guidance on this table.

Water Recycled Outside of
UWMP Service Area
(enter data as applicable)
Effluent Discharge that is
not a Permitted Recycled
Water Use
(enter data as applicable)
Required Discharge for
Instream Flow
(enter data as applicable)
Delivered to Another Entity for Additional
Treatment
(enter data as applicable)
Add additional rows as needed
Packet Pg. 539
Volume Narrative page number
(OPTIONAL)
Landscape irrigation (exc golf courses) Non-Potable 0 187 187 374 561 Industrial use Non-Potable 0 27 27 54 81
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 214 214 428 642 0
0 214 214 428 642 0 0
Check box if recycled water is not used and is not planned for use within the service area of the supplier. The supplier will only complete the column on "Potential Recycled Water Use" and submit an accompanying narrative on the feasibility of that potential recycled water use.

Submittal Table 6-4 Retail: Recycled Water Direct Beneficial Uses Within Service Area Water Code Section 10633 (c),(d),(e)
Potential Recycled Water Use
Name(s) of Facility/ies Producing (Treating) the Recycled Water (OPTIONAL) :

Name of Supplier Operating the Recycled Water Distribution System (OPTIONAL) :

Volume of Supplemental Water Added in 2025 (OPTIONAL) :

Source of 2025 Supplemental Water (OPTIONAL) :
2030 (AF)
City of Patterson
City of Patterson
Total
Use Type
Drop down list
Potable or Non-Potable
(after treatment if treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Drop down list
Additional Information
(as needed)
Add additional rows as needed
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

Additional Guidance: See Appendix M, Section M.21 for detailed guidance on this table.

Potential recycled water use: a description of the feasibility of these uses must be included in the narrative.

Multiple Producers: If you have multiple recycled water producers, submit a separate table for each.

NOTES:
2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Subtotal Potable
Subtotal Non-Potable
Packet Pg. 540

2020 Projection
for 2025 (AF)
2025 Actual
Use (AF)
0 0
Submittal Table 6-5 Retail: 2020 UWMP Recycled Water Use Projection Compared to 2025 Actual
Water Code Section 10633(e)
Check the box if recycled water was not used in 2025 nor previously projected for use in 2020.

Proceed to the next table.

NOTES:

Total
DWR NOTES:

Use Type
Drop Down list
Packet Pg. 541
Name of Action Description Expected Increase in Recycled Water Use (AF)
Tertiery Treatment Upgrade
and Connection to NonPotable SystemAdditional wastewater treatment for re-use 214 214
214
Total (AF)
DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) MUST remain consistent with units reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

The unit conversion to Acre Feet addresses the Water Code's requirement that this value be provided in acre-feet.

NOTES:

Submittal Table 6-6 Retail: Methods to Encourage Future Recycled Water Use Water Code Section 10633(f)
Check the box if the Supplier does not plan to expand recycled water use in the future. Supplier will not complete the table below but will provide narrative explanation.

Provide page location of narrative in the UWMP
Add additional rows as needed
Unit Conversion to AF
Planned Implementation Year
2035
Packet Pg. 542
Drop Down
List
(yes/no)
If Yes, Supplier Name
Del Puerto Creek
Recharge and Recovery
Project
Yes To be determined Potable 2030 All Year Types 1,550
Tertiary Treatment
Upgrade and Connection
to Non-Potable System
No Treatment Expansion Non-Potable 2035 All Year Types 214 Surface Water Expansion Yes To be determined See Section 6.5 Potable 2040 - 2050 Average Year 6,000 Near-Term Purchase of
Surface Water Supplies Yes To be determined See Section 6.5 Non-Potable 2030 Average Year 0 - 557 Planned for Use in
Year Type
Drop Down List
NOTES:

Submittal Table 6-7 Retail: Expected Future Water Supply Projects or Programs Water Code Section 10631(f)
DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

Check the box if some or all of the supplier's future water supply projects or programs are not compatible with this table and are described in a narrative format.

Check the box if there are no expected future water supply projects or programs that provide a quantifiable increase to the agency's water supply.

Proceed to the next table.

Planned
Implementation
Year
Add additional rows as needed
Joint Project with other suppliers? Expected
Increase in
Water Supply
to Supplier
(This may be a
range) (AF)
Provide page location of narrative in the UWMP
Name of Future Projects
or Programs
Additional Description
(as needed)
Potable or Non-Potable
(after treatment if treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Drop Down list
Packet Pg. 543
Water Supply
Drop down list
May use each category multiple times.

These are the only water supply
categories that will be recognized by the
WUEdata online submittal tool
Potable or Non-Potable
(after treatment if treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Drop Down list
Actual Volume
(AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes' below
(AF)
Groundwater (not desalinated) Potable 4,033
Groundwater (not desalinated) Non-Potable 488
4,033 0
488 0
4,521 0
Submittal Table 6-8 Retail: Water Supplies — Actual
Water Code Section 10631(b)
2025
NOTES:

DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3. This table identifies the unit of measure selected in Submittal Table 2-3.

Total Entitlement: e.g. Water Right, Groundwater Allocation, Contracted Amount.

Add additional rows as needed
Total
Subtotal Potable
Subtotal Non-Potable
Additional Description
(as needed)
Packet Pg. 544
Water Supply
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes'
below (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes'
below (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes'
below (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes'
below (AF)
Reasonably
Available
Volume (AF)
Total Entitlement
(OPTIONAL)
See 'DWR Notes'
below (AF)
Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota Subbasin - Lower
Aquifer Potable 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626
Other (optional) Del Puerto Creek Recharge and
Recovery Project
Potable 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota Subbasin - Upper
Aquifer Potable 0 295 707 0 0
Surface water (not
desalinated) Surface Water Expansion Potable 0 0 0 6,000 6,000 Groundwater (not
desalinated)
Delta-Mendota Subbasin - Upper
Aquifer Non-Potable 677 677 677 677 677
Surface water (not
desalinated)
As-needed purchase for nonpotable uses Non-Potable 56 216 377 538 557 4,176 0 4,471 0 4,883 0 10,176 0 10,176 0
733 0 893 0 1,054 0 1,215 0 1,234 0
4,909 0 5,364 0 5,937 0 11,391 0 11,410 0
2050 (opt)
Add additional rows as needed
Total
NOTES: (1) Groundwater in the Lower Aquifer is subject to a 460 AFY reduction from baseline pumping beginning in 2030 per requirements in the Northern Delta-Mendota Region Pumping Reduction Plan. The Model-estimated baseline pumping by the City from the Lower Aquifer from WY 2019-2023 is 3,086 AFY. This results in an annual projected groundwater availability of 2,626 AFY from the Lower Aquifer. (2) The Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project is anticipated to come online by the end of 2030 and provide up to 1,550 AFY of supply for groundwater basin recharge from two sources (stormwater and surface water reservoir releases). (3) The City anticipates pumping and treating water from the Upper Aquifer to potable standards to meet increasing potable demands from around 2027 through whenever surface water expansion (treatment) can be implemented. The volume of potable supplies from the Upper Aquifer is estimated in this table from 2030-2040 based on the projected shortfall between projected demands potable supplies from the Lower Aquifer & Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery Project. (4) For projection purposes, the City assumes a surface water expansion project will add treated surface water supply of up to 6,000 AFY starting in 2045 (volume based on the draft Chrome 6 Feasibility Study). (5) Groundwater in the Upper Aquifer is estimated based on total production capability of an assumed single non-potable well that will continue to serve non-potable uses once the remaining non-potable wells have treatment added for potable needs. For purpose of this table, Floragold well at 840 gallons per minute (GPM) is assumed with a 12-hour per day runtime (677 AFY). (6) The City anticipates purchasing surface water, at least in the near term, to supplement non-potable demands beyond what can be served by a single non-potable well in the Upper Aquifer. 2030 2035 2040 2045
Subtotal Non-Potable
Subtotal Potable
DWR NOTES:

Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

Total Entitlement: e.g. Water Right, Groundwater Allocation, Contracted Amount.

Submittal Table 6-9 Retail: Water Supplies — Projected
Water Code Section 10631 (b)
Projected Water Supply (Report to the Extent Practicable) Drop down list
May use each category multiple
times. These are the only water
supply categories that will be
recognized by the WUEdata online
submittal tool
Additional Detail on Water Supply
Potable or Non-Potable
(after treatment if treated)
(OPTIONAL)
Drop Down list
Packet Pg. 545
Water Delivery Product
drop down list
(If delivering more than one type of product recommend using Table O-1C)
Multiple
Products (if
unable to use
table O-1C)
Start Date of Reporting Period 1/1/2024
End Date of Reporting Period 12/31/2024
Is upstream embedded energy in the values reported? No
Units of Measure for Water AF Total Utility
See DWR NOTES
Hydropower Net Utility
4,521 - 4,521
2,150,521 - 2,150,521
1,460 - 1,460
Quantity of Self-Generated Renewable Energy
0 kWh
Data Quality (Estimate, Metered Data, Combination of Estimates and Metered Data) Metered Data
Data Quality Narrative:

Narrative:

NOTES:

Volume of Water Entering Process
Energy Consumed (kWh)
Energy Intensity (kWh/vol. converted to MG)
Optional Submittal Table O-1B: Recommended Energy Reporting - SINGLE DELIVERY PRODUCT - TOTAL UTILITY APPROACH This dataset contains metered energy data requested from the City's energy provider and water volume data from metered measurements of calendar year 2024's total groundwater pumped by the City. Each energy meter was categorized as water vs wastewater, as well as by wastewater management process.

Only for Water Delivery Products Under the Urban Water Supplier's Operational Control Sum of All Water Management
Processes
Non-Consequential Hydropower
DWR NOTES:

Total Utility:The volume of water entered in the “Total Utility” column should equal the volume of water entering the distribution system (excluding recycled water); in most cases, this is the total volume calculated in UWMP Table 4-1: 2025 Actual Total Uses for Potable and Non-Potable Water. Note if recycled water is included in your Submittal Table 4-1, you must exclude it from your volume in this table.

Packet Pg. 546
Start Date of Reporting Period 1/1/2024
End Date of Reporting Period 12/31/2024
Is upstream embedded energy in the values reported? No
Units of Measure for Water AF Collection /
Conveyance
Treatment
Discharge /
Distribution Total
1930 1930 3861
9,288 1,376,008 - 1385296

14.8 2187.6 0.0 1101.2
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quantity of Self-Generated Renewable Energy related to recycled water and wastewater operations
0 kWh
Data Quality (drop down)
Metered Data
Data Quality Narrative:

Narrative:

NOTES:

Volume of Wastewater Entering Process (volume units selected above) Wastewater Energy Consumed (kWh)
Volume of Recycled Water Entering Process (volume units selected above) Recycled Water Energy Consumed (kWh)
Wastewater Energy Intensity (kWh/volume converted to MG) Recycled Water Energy Intensity (kWh/volume converted to MG) Optional Submittal Table O-2: Recommended Energy Reporting - WASTEWATER AND RECYCLED WATER Only for Water Delivery Products Under the Urban Water
Supplier's Operational Control
Water Management Process
This dataset contains metered energy data requested from the City's energy provider and wastewater volume data from metered measurements of wastewater collected and treated by the City. Each energy meter was categorized as water vs wastewater, as well as by wastewater management process.

The “volume of water entering process” is based on metered measurements of wastewater collected the City’s Water Quality Control Facility (WQCF).

The “energy consumed” for Collection/Conveyance derives from three lift stations, while the “energy consume” for Treatment comes from energy meters at the WQCF. No energy is known to be used in Discharge/Distribution (percolation ponds). The City does not currently produce recycled water.

Packet Pg. 547
2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals
(autofill from Submittal Table 6-
9 R)
4,909 5,364 5,937 11,391 11,410 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF) Use totals
(autofill from Submittal Table 4-
2 R)
4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Supply totals
(autofill from Submittal Table
6-9 R)
4,176 4,471 4,883 10,176 10,176
Supply totals
(autofill from Submittal Table
6-9 R)
733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762
Use totals
(autofill from Submittal Table
4-2 R)
4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Use totals
(autofill from Submittal Table
4-2 R)
733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 Submittal Table 7-2 Retail: Normal Year Supply and Use Comparison Water Code Section 10635 (a)
NOTES:

DWR NOTES : Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-2 Retail: Normal Year Supply and Use Comparison - POTABLE NOTES:

OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-2 Retail: Normal Year Supply and Use Comparison -

NON-POTABLE
NOTES:

Packet Pg. 548
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 11,129 11,148
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500 Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply
augmentation benefit
158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction
savings benefit
WSCP - supply
augmentation benefit
158 263 263 WSCP - supply
augmentation benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 WSCP - use reduction
savings benefit
WSCP - use reduction
savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Submittal Table 7-3 Retail: Single Dry Year Supply and Use Comparison Water Code Section 10635(a)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-3 Retail: Single Dry Year Supply and Use Comparison - POTABLE
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-3 Retail: Single Dry Year Supply and Use Comparison - NON-POTABLE
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
2030 (AF)
2030 (AF) 2030 (AF)
2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF)
2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
2050 (AF)
2035 (AF) 2040 (AF)
DWR NOTES : Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES
DWR NOTES : Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES DWR NOTES : Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES
Packet Pg. 549
2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 11,129 11,148 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF) Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500 Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263 0 0
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 4,613 4,500 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit WSCP - use reduction savings benefit Supply totals 4,407 4,862 5,435 9,089 9,108 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,674 3,969 4,381 7,874 7,874 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460 Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14 0 0
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0 2,573 2,460 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit Supply totals 4,247 4,702 5,275 7,729 7,748 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,514 3,809 4,221 6,514 6,514 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100 Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174 0 0
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 1,213 1,100 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit Supply totals 4,047 4,502 5,075 6,029 6,048 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,314 3,609 4,021 4,814 4,814 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601) Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601) Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 0 0 0 0
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit WSCP - supply augmentation benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit Supply totals 4,287 4,742 5,315 8,069 10,788 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648 Supply totals 3,554 3,849 4,261 6,854 9,554 Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140 Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414 Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234 Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140 Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 0 0 0 0
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit WSCP - supply augmentation benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110 1,553 4,140 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) NOTES:

OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-4 Retail: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Use Comparison - POTABLE First year OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
First year
Second
year
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
Third
year
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Fourth
year
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Fifth year OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Second year OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
Third year
Fifth year
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Fourth year OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Submittal Table 7-4 Retail: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Use Comparison Water Code Section 10635(a)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-4 Retail: Multiple Dry Years Supply and Use Comparison - NON-POTABLE First year OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES:

Second
year
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-

3. NOTES:

Third
year
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Fourth
year
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Fifth year OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
Packet Pg. 550
2026 Total
Total Water Use (AF) 4,215 2026 Total 2026 Total
Total Supplies (AF) 3,457 Total Water Use (AF) 3,678 Total Water Use (AF) 537 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) Total Supplies (AF) 2,920 Total Supplies (AF) 537 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2027 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,284 2027 Total 2027 Total
Total Supplies (AF) 4,284 Total Water Use (AF) 3,698 Total Water Use (AF) 586 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 3,698 Total Supplies (AF) 586 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2028 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,352 2028 Total 2028 Total
Total Supplies (AF) 4,352 Total Water Use (AF) 3,717 Total Water Use (AF) 635 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (0) Total Supplies (AF) 3,717 Total Supplies (AF) 635 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (0) Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2029 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,578 2029 Total 2029 Total
Total Supplies (AF) 4,579 Total Water Use (AF) 3,894 Total Water Use (AF) 684 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 3,895 Total Supplies (AF) 684 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2030 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,804 2030 Total 2030 Total
Total Supplies (AF) 4,804 Total Water Use (AF) 4,071 Total Water Use (AF) 733 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 4,071 Total Supplies (AF) 733 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) NOTES: NOTES:

OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES: DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment Water Code Section 10635(b)(3)
OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment -

POTABLE
OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment -

NON-POTABLE
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) Packet Pg. 551
2026 Total Version to copy/paste into UWMP:

Total Water Use (AF) 4,215 2026 Total 2026 Total 2026 Total Potable Non-Potable Total Supplies (AF) 3,457 Total Water Use (AF) 3,678 Total Water Use (AF) 537 Total Water Use (AF) 4,215 3,678 537 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) Total Supplies (AF) 2,920 Total Supplies (AF) 537 Total Supplies (AF) 3,457 2,920 537 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) (757) 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 757 2027 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 Total Water Use (AF) 4,284 2027 Total 2027 Total 2027 Total Potable Non-Potable Total Supplies (AF) 4,284 Total Water Use (AF) 3,698 Total Water Use (AF) 586 Total Water Use (AF) 4,284 3,698 586 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 3,698 Total Supplies (AF) 586 Total Supplies (AF) 4,284 3,698 586 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2028 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,352 2028 Total 2028 Total 2028 Total Potable Non-Potable Total Supplies (AF) 4,352 Total Water Use (AF) 3,717 Total Water Use (AF) 635 Total Water Use (AF) 4,352 3,717 635 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (0) Total Supplies (AF) 3,717 Total Supplies (AF) 635 Total Supplies (AF) 4,352 3,717 635 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (0) Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (0) (0) 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2029 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,578 2029 Total 2029 Total 2029 Total Potable Non-Potable Total Supplies (AF) 4,579 Total Water Use (AF) 3,894 Total Water Use (AF) 684 Total Water Use (AF) 4,578 3,894 684 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 3,895 Total Supplies (AF) 684 Total Supplies (AF) 4,579 3,895 684 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 2030 Total Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Total Water Use (AF) 4,804 2030 Total 2030 Total 2030 Total Potable Non-Potable Total Supplies (AF) 4,804 Total Water Use (AF) 4,071 Total Water Use (AF) 733 Total Water Use (AF) 4,804 4,071 733 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Total Supplies (AF) 4,071 Total Supplies (AF) 733 Total Supplies (AF) 4,804 4,071 733 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0 WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall) Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES:

OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment - OPTIONAL Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

NOTES:

DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

Submittal Table 7-5 Retail: Five-Year Drought Risk Assessment Water Code Section 10635(b)(3)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) Packet Pg. 552
Standard
Shortage
Levels
Percent Shortage
Range
Suppliers
Shortage Levels
Percent
Shortage Range
1 Up to 10%
2 Up to 20%
3 Up to 30%
4 Up to 40%
5 Up to 50%
6 >50%
Submittal Table 8-1: Cross-reference for Standard vs
Supplier Shortage Levels
Water Code Section 10632(a)(3)(B)
Check the box if the Supplier uses the Standard
six levels of water shortage.

Proceed to the next table.

NOTES:

Packet Pg. 553
Yes
Volume or
Percentage
Drop down
Shortage Gap
Reduction Value
(May be a range) (AF)
3 Implement or Modify Drought Rate
Structure or Surcharge Percentage up to 5% (or 200 AF) Cover additional costs associated with water shortage response actions 4 Implement or Modify Drought Rate
Structure or Surcharge Percentage up to 5% (or 200 AF) Cover additional costs associated with water shortage response actions 5 Other Actions (describe) Volume 912 Increase pumping from existing potable wells (12 hrs/day)
5 Other Actions (describe) Volume 2,129 Increase pumping from existing non-potable wells (24 hrs/day)
5 Exchanges Percentage up to 10% (or 400 AF) Bring in temporary non-potable supplies 6 Other Actions (describe) Volume 912 Increase pumping from existing potable wells (12 hrs/day)
6 Other Actions (describe) Volume 2,129 Increase pumping from existing non-potable wells (24 hrs/day)
6 Exchanges Percentage up to 10% (or 400 AF) Bring in temporary non-potable supplies Submittal Table 8-2 Retail: Supply Augmentation and Other Actions Water Code Section 10632(a)(4)(A),(C) and (E)
Add additional rows as needed
NOTES: The City has very few supply augmentation measures other than to increase pumping capacity from existing wells and attempt to secure short-term supplies from neighboring agencies, which would be very expensive to the City and likely only benefit non-potable uses.

Is the Supplier completing this table using the standard six levels? (yes/no) How much is this going to reduce the
shortage gap?
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

Shortage
Level
Supply Augmentation Methods and
Other Actions by Water Supplier
Drop down list
These are the only categories that will be
accepted by the WUEdata online submittal tool
Additional Explanation or Reference
(OPTIONAL)
Packet Pg. 554
Yes
Volume or Percentage
Drop down
Shortage Gap
Reduction Value
(May be a range) (AF)
1 Other Percentage 0 - 50%+ Demand Reduction Program No 1 Other Percentage 0 - 20% Voluntary Restrictions - No Waste No 1 Expand Public Information Campaign Percentage 0 - 20% General increase in public outreach measures including social media, apps, and other means No
1 Improve Customer Billing Percentage up to 5% Provide more real-time water use data as available through AMI projects No
1 Offer Water Use Surveys Percentage up to 5% Especially to large water users No 2 Other Percentage 0 - 30% Voluntary Water Use Reductions No 1 Provide Rebates on Plumbing Fixtures
and Devices Percentage up to 5% Enhance plumbing fixture rebates No 1 Other Percentage 10 - 30% Expedite conversion of water efficient fixtures No 1 Landscape - Limit landscape irrigation to
specific days Percentage 0 - 20% Limit irrigation to 3 watering days/week No 1 Landscape - Limit landscape irrigation to
specific days Percentage 0 - 40% Limit irrigation to 2 watering days/week No 1 Other - Customers must repair leaks,
breaks, and malfunctions in a timely
manner
Percentage 10-50%+ Repair within 5 days of detection No 2 Landscape - Prohibit certain types of
landscape irrigation Percentage 20 - 50%+ Reduce parks/open space irrigation No 3 Provide Rebates for Landscape
Irrigation Efficiency Percentage up to 5% Provide or enhance landscape rebates (e.g. sprinkler rebates) No 3 Decrease Line Flushing Percentage up to 5% Avoid THM MCL violations No 3 Implement or Modify Drought Rate
Structure or Surcharge Percentage up to 5% Cover additional costs associate with water shortage response activities Yes 3 Expand Public Information Campaign Percentage 30 - 50%+ General and specific public outreach measures No 3 Reduce System Water Loss Percentage 20 - 50%+ Expedite larger utility leak repairs No 3 Increase Water Waste Patrols Percentage 20 - 50%+ Mandatory restrictions - no waste enforced via patrols, tickets, fines, etc. Yes
3 Implement or Modify Drought Rate
Structure or Surcharge Percentage 20 - 50%+ Apply water shortage pricing for surcharge Yes 3 Other Percentage 20 - 50%+ Apply penalties for excessive water use Yes 4 Other Percentage 30 - 50%+ Restrict water use for only priority uses No 5 Moratorium or Net Zero Demand
Increase on New Connections Percentage 20 - 50%+ Discuss phasing permitted development Yes 5 Landscape - Prohibit certain types of
landscape irrigation Percentage 20 - 50%+ Significant irrigation prohibitions Yes 5 Landscape - Prohibit certain types of
landscape irrigation Percentage 40 - 50%+ No lawn watering Yes 5 Other Percentage 40 - 50%+ Apply flow restrictions to customers Yes 5 Other Percentage 40 - 50%+ Mandatory water rationing, per capita allotment Yes 5 Increase Water Waste Patrols Percentage Up to 1% Increased security or monitoring by City staff of hydrants to avoid unauthorized consumption No
Shortage
Level
Demand Reduction Actions
Drop down list
These are the only categories that will be
accepted by the WUEdata online submittal
tool. Select those that apply.

Additional Explanation or Reference
(OPTIONAL)
NOTES: See WSCP main document for more detailed version of "Shortage Level" column which indicates a range of shortage levels applicable to each row. For purpose of this DWR submission table online, the "Shortage Level" column has been filled out with the lowest of the range, and typically each action applies to all shortage levels above it, unless superseded by a similar action that is more restrictive.

Penalty, Charge, or
Other
Enforcement?
For Retail Suppliers Only
Drop Down List
DWR NOTES: Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Submittal Table 2-3.

Is the Supplier completing this table using the standard six levels? (yes/no) Submittal Table 8-3 Retail: Demand Reduction Actions
Water Code Section 10632(a)(4)(B),(D), and (E)
Add additional rows as needed
How much is this going to reduce the shortage
gap?
Packet Pg. 555
City Name 60 Day Notice
Drop Down (yes/no)
Notice of Public
Hearing
Drop Down (yes/no)
City of Dos Palos Yes Yes
City of Firebaugh Yes Yes
City of Gustine Yes Yes
City of Los Banos Yes Yes
City of Mendota Yes Yes
City of Newman Yes Yes
Aliso Water District Yes Yes
Farmers Water District Yes Yes
Grassland Water District Yes Yes
Oro Loma Water District Yes Yes
Patterson Irrigation District Yes Yes
Turner Island Water District Yes Yes
Widren Water District Yes Yes
Central Delta-Mendota Region MultiAgency
Yes Yes
DM-II GSA1 Yes Yes
West Stanislaus Irrigation District GSA Yes Yes
San Joaquin River Exchange Contractors
Water Authority Yes Yes
San Luis Delta Mendota Water
Authority Yes Yes
County Name
Drop Down List
60 Day Notice
Drop Down (yes/no)
Notice of Public
Hearing
Drop Down (yes/no)
Fresno County Yes Yes
Madera County Yes Yes
Merced County Yes Yes
San Joaquin County Yes Yes
Stanislaus County2 Yes Yes
Submittal Table 10-1 Retail: Notification to Cities and Counties Water Code Section 10621(b) and 10642
NOTES: 1 The DM-II GSA includes Del Puerto Water District and Oak Flat Water District.
2 Stanislaus County is the only City or County that the City of Patterson is required to notify related to the 2025 UWMP.

Packet Pg. 556
City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX C: DWR CHECKLIST
Packet Pg. 557
Order 2025 Guidebook
Location Water Code Section Summary as Applies to UWMP Subject Relevant Submittal Table 2025 UWMP Location 1 Chapter 1 10615 A plan shall describe and evaluate sources of supply, reasonable and practical efficient uses, reclamation and demand management activities.

Introduction and
overview n/a Executive Summary; Section 1
1 Chapter 1 10630.5
Each plan shall include a simple description of the Supplier’s plan including water availability, future requirements, a strategy for meeting needs, and other pertinent information. Additionally, a Supplier may also choose to include a simple description at the beginning of each chapter.

Plan preparation n/a Executive Summary; Section 1

2.1 Section 2.1 10620(b) Every person that becomes a Supplier shall adopt UWMP within one year after it has become a Supplier. Plan preparation n/a n/a

2.5 Section 2.5 10644
Supplier shall report the Public Water Systems number, volume of delivered water, and number of connections that are included in this UWMP.

Plan preparation 2-1 Section 2.1 (Table 2-1)

2.5 Section 2.5 10644 Supplier shall report if this UWMP is an individual UWMP and whether the Supplier belongs to a regional UWMP or regional alliance. Plan preparation 2-2 Section 2.2 (Table 2-2)

2.5 Section 2.5 10644 Supplier shall report whether the data is in fiscal or calendar years and the units of measure used for reporting water volumes. Plan preparation 2-3 Section 2.3 (Table 2-3)

2.4 Section 2.4 10642
Provide supporting documentation that the Supplier has encouraged active involvement of diverse social, cultural, and economic elements of the population within the service area prior to and during the preparation of the plan and contingency plan.

Plan preparation n/a Section 2.5, Section 10.3

2.4 Section 2.4.2 10620(d)(3)
Coordinate the preparation of its plan with other appropriate agencies in the area, including other Suppliers that share a common source, water management agencies, and relevant public agencies, to the extent practicable.

Plan preparation n/a Section 2.4

2.4 Section 2.4.1 10631(h) Retail Suppliers will include documentation that they have provided their Wholesale Supplier(s)—if any—with water use projections from that source. Plan preparation 2-4 R Section 2.5 (Table 2-5)

2.4 Section 2.4.1 10631(h)
Wholesale Suppliers will provide their Suppliers with identification and quantification of the existing and planned sources of water available from the Wholesale Supplier to the Supplier during various water year types.

Plan preparation 2-4 W n/a
3 Chapter 3.0 10631(a) Describe the Supplier service area. System description n/a Chapter 3; Section 3.1

3.3 Section 3.3 10631(a) Describe the climate of the Supplier’s service area. System description n/a Section 3.3

3.4 Section 3.4.1 10631(a) Provide the current and projected service area populations for 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and optionally 2050. System description 3-1 Section 3.4 (Table 3-3)

3.4 Section 3.4.2 10631(a) Describe other social, economic, and demographic factors affecting the Supplier’s water management planning. System description n/a Section 3.4

3.5 Section 3.5 10631(a)
Describe the land uses within the service area… include the current and projected land uses within the existing or anticipated service area affecting the Supplier’s water management planning. Describe the land uses within the service area.

System description and
baselines n/a Section 3.5

4.2 Sections 4.2.3 and

4.2.4 10631(d)(1) Quantify past, current, and projected water use, identifying the uses among water use sectors. System water use 4-1 and 4-2 Sections 4.1 and 4.2 (Table 4-1 and 4-3)

4.3 Section 4.3.1 10631(d)(3)(A) Report the distribution system water loss for each of the five years preceding the plan update. System water use 4-5 Section 4.3 (Table 4-4)

4.3 Section 4.3.2 10631(d)(3)(C) Retail Suppliers shall provide data to show the distribution loss standards were met. System water use 4-6 Section 4.3 (Table 4-5)

4.2 Section 4.2.5.4 10631.1(a) Include projected water use needed for lower income housing projected in the service area of the Supplier. System water use 4-3 Section 4.4.2 (Table 4-6)

4.2 Section 4.2.5.3 10631(d)(4)(A) In projected water use, include estimates of water savings from adopted codes, plans, and other policies or laws. System water use 4-3 Section 4.4.1 (Table 4-6)

4.2 Section 4.2.5.3 10631(d)(4)(B) Provide citations of codes, standards, ordinances, or plans used to make water use projections. System water use 4-3 Section 4.4 (Table 4-6)

4.2 Section 4.2.5.3 10631(d)(4)(B)(ii)
To the extent that a Supplier reports the information described in subparagraph (A), an urban water Supplier shall… Indicate the extent that the water use projections consider savings from codes, standards, ordinances, or transportation and land use plans. Water use projections that do not account for these water savings shall be noted of that fact.

System water use 4-3 Section 4.4 (Table 4-6)

4.2 Section 4.2.5.6 10635(b) Demands under climate change considerations must be included as part of the drought risk assessment. System water use n/a Section 4.5, Section 7.3 Packet Pg. 558
Order 2025 Guidebook
Location Water Code Section Summary as Applies to UWMP Subject Relevant Submittal Table 2025 UWMP Location

5.1 Section 5.1 10608.36
Wholesale Suppliers shall include an assessment of present and proposed future measures, programs, and policies to help their Retail Suppliers achieve targeted water use reductions.

Baselines and targets n/a n/a

5.2 Section 5.2 10608.4
Retail Suppliers shall report on their compliance in meeting their water use targets. Reporting requirements will vary depending on whether the Supplier:
- Was considered an urban retail water supplier in 2020, - Met its 2020 target in 2020, or
- Was part of a merger or consolidation since 2020.

Chapter 5 Subsections 5.2.1, 5.2.2, and 5.2.3 address each of these situations.

Baselines and targets 5-1 Chapter 5 (Table 5-1)

6.1 Section 6.1 10631(b)(2) When multiple sources of water supply are identified, describe the management of each supply in relationship to other identified supplies. System supplies n/a Chapter 6

6.1 Sections 6.1 and 6.2 10631(b)(1)
Provide a discussion of anticipated supply availability under a normal, single dry year, and a drought lasting five years, as well as more frequent and severe periods of drought, including changes in supply due to climate change.

System supplies n/a Section 4.5; Section 6.6; Chapter 7

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(C)
Indicate whether groundwater is an existing or planned source of water available to the Supplier. If groundwater is identified as an existing or planned source of water… (include) a detailed description and analysis of the location, amount and sufficiency of groundwater pumped by the Supplier for the past five years.

Water supplies and
recycled water 6-1 Section 6.2 (Table 6-2)

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(A)
Indicate whether a groundwater sustainability plan or groundwater management plan has been adopted by the Supplier or if there is any other specific authorization for groundwater management. Include a copy of the plan or authorization.

System supplies n/a Section 6.2.2

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(B) Describe the groundwater basin. System supplies n/a Section 6.2.1

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(B)
Indicate if the basin has been adjudicated and include a copy of the court order or decree and a description of the amount of water the Supplier has the legal right to pump.

System supplies n/a Section 6.2.1

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(B)
For unadjudicated basins… (include) information as to whether DWR has identified the basin as a high- or medium-priority basin in the most current official departmental bulletin…
Water supplies and
recycled water n/a Section 6.2.1

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(B)
For unadjudicated basins… describe efforts by the Supplier to coordinate with sustainability or groundwater agencies to achieve sustainable groundwater conditions.

Water supplies and
recycled water n/a Section 6.2.2

6.2 Section 6.2.2. 10631(b)(4)(C)
If groundwater is identified as an existing or planned source of water… (include) a detailed description and analysis of the location, amount and sufficiency of groundwater pumped by the Supplier for the past five years.

System supplies n/a Section 6.2.3

6.2 Section 6.2.2 10631(b)(4)(D) Provide a detailed description and analysis of the amount and location of groundwater that is projected to be pumped. System supplies 6-9 Section 6.5 (Table 6-10)

6.1 Section 6.1 10631(b) Identify and quantify the existing and planned sources of water available for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and optionally 2050. System supplies 6-8 and 6-9 Section 6.5 (Tables 6-9 and 6-10)

6.2 Section 6.2.7 10631(c) Describe the opportunities for exchanges or transfers of water on a shortterm or long-term basis. System supplies n/a Section 6.1

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(a)
Describe the wastewater collection and treatment systems in the Supplier’s service area with quantified amount of collection and treatment and the disposal methods.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-2 Section 6.4 (Table 6-3)

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(b)
Describe the quantity of treated wastewater that meets recycled water standards, is being discharged, and is otherwise available for use in a recycled water project.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-3 Section 6.4 (Table 6-4)

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(c) Describe the recycled water currently being used in the Supplier's service area.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-4 Section 6.4 (Table 6-5)

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(d) Describe and quantify the potential uses of recycled water and provide a determination of the technical and economic feasibility of those uses.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-4 Section 6.4 (Table 6-5)

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(e)
Describe the projected use of recycled water within the Supplier's service area at the end of 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, and describe the actual use of recycled water in comparison to uses previously projected.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-4 and 6-5 Section 6.4 (Tables 6-5 and 6-6) Packet Pg. 559
Order 2025 Guidebook
Location Water Code Section Summary as Applies to UWMP Subject Relevant Submittal Table 2025 UWMP Location

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(f)
Describe the actions that may be taken to encourage the use of recycled water and the projected results of these actions in terms of acre-feet of recycled water used per year.

System supplies
(recycled water) 6-6 Section 6.4 (Table 6-7)

6.2 Section 6.2.5 10633(g) Provide a plan for optimizing the use of recycled water in the Supplier's service area.

System supplies
(recycled water) n/a Section 6.4

6.2 Section 6.2.6 10631(g) Describe desalinated water project opportunities for long-term supply. System supplies 6-7 Section 6.1

6.2 Section 6.2.10 10631(f)
Describe the expected future water supply projects and programs that may be undertaken by the water Supplier to address water supply reliability in average, single-dry, and for a period of drought lasting five consecutive water years.

System supplies 6-7 Section 6.5 (Table 6-8); Section 7.4

6.3 Section 6.3 and
Appendix O 10631.2(a) The UWMP must include energy information, as stated in the code, that a Supplier can readily obtain.

System suppliers,
energy intensity
O-1A, O-1B, O1C, and O-2 Section 6.7

7.1 Section 7.1 10634
Provide information on the quality of existing sources of water available to the Supplier and the manner in which water quality affects water management strategies and supply reliability.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Section 7.1

7.2 Section 7.2 10635(a)
Service Reliability Assessment: Assess the water supply reliability during normal, dry, and a drought lasting five consecutive water years by comparing the total water supply sources available to the Supplier with the total projected water use over the next 20 years.

Water supply reliability
assessment 7-2, 7-3, and 7-4 Section 7.2 (Tables 7-1 through 7-9)

7.2 Section 7.2.3 10620(f) Describe water management tools and options to maximize resources and minimize the need to import water from other regions.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Sections 7.2 and 7.4

7.3 Section 7.3 10635(b) Provide a drought risk assessment as part of information considered in developing the demand management measures and water supply projects.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Section 7.3

7.3 Section 7.3 10635(b)(1)
Include a description of the data, methodology, and basis for one or more supply shortage conditions that are necessary to conduct a drought risk assessment for a drought period that lasts five consecutive years.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Section 7.3

7.3 Section 7.3 10635(b)(2) Include a determination of the reliability of each source of supply under a variety of water shortage conditions.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Section 7.3

7.3 Section 7.3 10635(b)(3) Include a comparison of the total water supply sources available to the Supplier with the total projected water use for the drought period.

Water supply reliability
assessment 7-5 Section 7.3 (Table 7-10)

7.3 Section 7.3 10635(b)(4)
Include considerations of the historical drought hydrology, plausible changes on projected supplies and demands under climate change conditions, anticipated regulatory changes, and other locally applicable criteria.

Water supply reliability
assessment n/a Section 7.3
8 Chapter 8 10632(a) Provide a water shortage contingency plan (WSCP) with specified elements below.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E
8 Chapter 8 10632(a)(1) Provide an analysis of water supply reliability (from Guidebook Chapter 7) in the WSCP.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 2

8.2 Section 8.2 10632(a)(2)(A) Provide the written decision-making process and other methods that the Supplier will use each year to determine its water reliability.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 3

8.2 Section 8.2 10632(a)(2)(B) Provide data and methodology to evaluate the Supplier’s water reliability for the current year and one dry year pursuant to factors in the code.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 3

8.3 Section 8.3 10632(a)(3)(A)
Define six standard water shortage levels of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% shortage, and greater than 50% shortage. These levels shall be based on supply conditions, including percent reductions in supply, changes in groundwater levels, changes in surface elevation, or other conditions. The shortage levels shall also apply to a catastrophic interruption of supply.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 4

8.3 Section 8.3 10632(a)(3)(B) Suppliers with an existing WSCP that uses different water shortage levels must cross reference their categories with the six standard categories.

Water shortage
contingency planning 8-1 Appendix E, Table 4-2

8.4 Section 8.4 10632(a)(4)(A) Suppliers with WSCPs that align with the defined shortage levels must specify locally appropriate supply augmentation actions.

Water shortage
contingency planning 8-2 Appendix E, Table 5-1

8.4 Section 8.4 10632(a)(4)(B) Specify locally appropriate demand reduction actions to adequately respond to shortages.

Water shortage
contingency planning 8-3 Appendix E, Table 5-2

8.4 Section 8.4 10632(a)(4)(C) Specify locally appropriate operational changes. Water shortage contingency planning 8-2 Appendix E, Table 5-1

8.4 Section 8.4 10632(a)(4)(D)
Specify additional mandatory prohibitions against specific water use practices that are in addition to State-mandated prohibitions are appropriate to local conditions.

Water shortage
contingency planning Table 8-3 Appendix E, Table 5-2
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Order 2025 Guidebook
Location Water Code Section Summary as Applies to UWMP Subject Relevant Submittal Table 2025 UWMP Location

8.4 Section 8.4 10632(a)(4)(E) Estimate the extent to which the gap between supplies and demand will be reduced by implementation of the action.

Water shortage
contingency planning 8-2 and 8-3 Appendix E, Tables 5-1 and 5-2

8.4 Section 8.4.6 10632.5 The UWMP shall include a seismic risk assessment and mitigation plan. Water shortage contingency plan n/a Appendix E, Section 2.1

8.5 Section 8.5 10632(a)(5)(A) Suppliers must describe that they will inform customers, the public and others regarding any current or predicted water shortages.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 6

8.5 Section 8.5 10632(a)(5)(B),
10632(a)(5)(C)
Suppliers must describe that they will inform customers, the public and others regarding any shortage response actions triggered or anticipated to be triggered and other relevant communications.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 6

8.6 Section 8.6 10632(a)(6) Retail Supplier must describe how it will ensure compliance with and enforce provisions of the WSCP.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 7

8.7 Section 8.7 10632(a)(7)(A) Describe the legal authority that empowers the Supplier to enforce shortage response actions.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 8

8.7 Section 8.7 10632(a)(7)(B) Provide a statement that the Supplier will declare a water shortage emergency per Water Code Chapter 3. Water Shortage Emergencies .

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 8

8.7 Section 8.7 10632(a)(7)(C)
Provide a statement that the Supplier will coordinate with any city or county within which it provides water for the possible proclamation of a local emergency.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 8

8.8 Section 8.8 10632(a)(8)(A) Describe the potential revenue reductions and expense increases associated with activated shortage response actions.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 9

8.8 Section 8.8 10632(a)(8)(B)
Provide a description of mitigation actions needed to address revenue reductions and expense increases associated with activated shortage response actions.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 9

8.8 Section 8.8 10632(a)(8)(C) Retail Suppliers must describe the cost of compliance with Water Code Chapter 3.3, Excessive Residential Water Use During Drought .

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E

8.9 Section 8.9 10632(a)(9)
Retail Suppliers must describe the monitoring and reporting requirements and procedures that ensure appropriate data are collected, tracked, and analyzed for purposes of monitoring customer compliance.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 10

8.10 Section 8.10 10632(a)(10)
Describe reevaluation and improvement procedures for monitoring and evaluation the WSCP to ensure risk tolerance is adequate and appropriate water shortage mitigation strategies are implemented.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 11

8.11 Section 8.11 10632(b)
Analyze and define water features that are artificially supplied with water, including ponds, lakes, waterfalls, and fountains, separately from swimming pools and spas.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 12

8.12 Section 8.12 10632(c) Make available the WSCP to customers and any city or county where it provides water within 30 days after adoption of the plan.

Water shortage
contingency planning n/a Appendix E, Section 13

9.1 Sections 9.1 10631(e)(1)
Retail Suppliers shall provide a description of the nature and extent of each demand management measure implemented over the past five years. The description will address specific measures listed in code.

Demand management
measures
n/a Section 9.1

9.2 Sections 9.2 10631(e)(2)
Wholesale Suppliers shall describe specific demand management measures listed in code, their distribution system asset management program, and Supplier assistance program.

Demand management
measures
n/a n/a
10 Chapter 10 10608.26(a)
Retail Suppliers shall conduct a public hearing to discuss adoption, implementation, and economic impact of water use targets (recommended to discuss compliance).

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.2

10.2 Section 10.2.1 10621(b)
Notify, at least 60 days prior to the public hearing, any city or county within which the Supplier provides water that the Supplier will be reviewing the UWMP and considering amendments or changes to the plan.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
10-1 Section 10.2 (Table 10-1)

10.4 Section 10.4 10621(f) Each urban water Supplier shall update and submit its 2025 plan to DWR by July 1, 2026.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.4

10.2 Sections 10.2.2,

10.3, and 10.5 10642
Provide supporting documentation that the Supplier made the UWMP and WSCP available for public inspection, published notice of the public hearing, and held a public hearing about the UWMP and WSCP.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Appendix A

10.2 Section 10.2.2 10642 The Supplier is to provide the time and place of the hearing to any city or county within which the Supplier provides water.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
10-1 Section 10.2 (Table 10-1)

10.3 Section 10.3.2 10642 Provide supporting documentation that the UWMP and WSCP has been adopted as prepared or modified.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Appendix A
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Order 2025 Guidebook
Location Water Code Section Summary as Applies to UWMP Subject Relevant Submittal Table 2025 UWMP Location

10.4 Section 10.4 10644(a) Provide supporting documentation that the Supplier has submitted their UWMP to the California State Library.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Sections 10.3 and 10.4

10.4 Section 10.4 10644(a)(1)
Provide supporting documentation that the Supplier has submitted their UWMP to any city or county within which the Supplier provides water no later than 30 days after adoption.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.3

10.4 Sections 10.4.1 and

10.4.2 10644(a)(2) The UWMP, or amendments to the UWMP, submitted to DWR shall be submitted electronically.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.6

10.7 Section 10.7.2 10644(b) If revised, submit a copy of the WSCP to DWR within 30 days of adoption.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.6

10.5 Section 10.5 10645(a)
Provide supporting documentation that, not later than 30 days after filing a copy of its UWMP with DWR, the Supplier has or will make the plan available for public review during normal business hours.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.5

10.5 Section 10.5 10645(b)
Provide supporting documentation that, not later than 30 days after filing a copy of its WSCP with DWR, the Supplier has or will make the plan available for public review during normal business hours.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a Section 10.5

10.6 Section 10.6 10621(c) If Supplier is regulated by the Public Utilities Commission, include its plan and contingency plan as part of its general rate case filings.

Plan adoption,
submittal, and
implementation
n/a n/a
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX D: CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
City of Patterson 2025 UWMP – Sections 4.5 and 6.6 herein City of Patterson – General Plan Climate Change Report
Westside-San Joaquin IRWMP – Climate Change Section
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APPENDIX 5.7B

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY REPORT
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CITY OF PATTERSON

GENERAL PLAN UPDATE

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY REPORT
Prepared by:
860 WALNUT STREET, SUITE B
SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA 93401-2725
Prepared for:

CRAWFORD MULTARI
& CLARK ASSOCIATES
846 HIGUERA STREET, SUITE 11
SAN LUIS OBISPO CA 93401
JULY 2010

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CITY OF P ATTERSON

GENERAL PLAN UPDATE

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY REPORT
Prepared for:

CRAWFORD MULTARI
& CLARK ASSOCIATES
846 HIGUERA STREET, SUITE 11
SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA 93401
Prepared by:

PMC
860 WALNUT STREET, SUITE B
SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA 93401-2725
JULY 2010

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
i

TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. INTRODUCTION
III. CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW
A. Climate Change Essentials ................................................................................................................. III-1 B. Impacts of Climate Change .............................................................................................................. III-5 B.1 Increased Rate of Wildfires ............................................................................................................ III-6 B.2 Negative Impacts on Wildlife ........................................................................................................ III-7 B.3 Deteriorating Public Health ........................................................................................................ III-11 B.4 A Decreasing Supply of Fresh Water ........................................................................................ III-11 B.5 Increased Severity and Frequency of Flood Events ............................................................... III-14 C. Regulatory Setting ............................................................................................................................ III-14 C.1 California’s Legislative Direction................................................................................................ III-14 C.1 Federal Direction .......................................................................................................................... III-16 C.3 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Direction .................................................... III-17 IV. ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH THE GENERAL PLAN AND GENERAL PLAN EIR A. Primary Purposes ................................................................................................................................. IV-1 B. Implementation Functions ................................................................................................................. IV-1 C. Opportunities and Challenges To Be Addressed through the EIR .............................................. IV-3 D. Reduction Targets ............................................................................................................................... IV-3 D.1 Global, National, and State Inventories ..................................................................................... IV-3 V. EMISSIONS INVENTORY, PROJECTIONS, AND REDUCTION MEASURES A. Baseline GHG Inventory ..................................................................................................................... V-1 A.1 Emissions Sources ........................................................................................................................... V-1 A.2 Baseline GHG Emissions by Sector ............................................................................................... V-1 A.3 Methodology .................................................................................................................................. V-2 Packet Pg. 567

TABLE OF CONTENTS
General Plan City of Patterson
Climate Change Summary Report July 2010
ii
B. General Plan Emissions Forecasts ..................................................................................................... V-5 B.1 Target Years and Reduction Goals ............................................................................................. V-5 B.2 Business-as-Usual Forecasts .......................................................................................................... V-6 B.3 Reduction Measures .................................................................................................................... V-13 VI. NEXT STEPS
TABLES
Table I-1 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by Sector, 2009 ................................................................. I-1 Table I-2 Business-As-Usual Forecasts ........................................................................................................ I-2 Table I-3 Percentage Reductions to Achieve with the Climate Action Plan ..................................... I-3 Table V-1 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by Sector, 2009 .............................................................. V-2 Table V-2 Baseline Inventory GHG Emissions ......................................................................................... V-2 Table V-3 Emissions Forecasts .................................................................................................................. V-7 Table V-4 Scenario Comparison of Emissions by Sector .................................................................... V-11 Table V-5 Compact Development Scenario Business-As-Usual Emissions Growth and State Reduction Targets ................................................................................................................................... V-11 Table V-6 Jobs Emphasis Scenario Business-As-Usual Emissions Growth and State Reduction Targets ....................................................................................................................................................... V-12 Table V-7 Planning Commission Environmental Review Scenario Business-As-Usual Emissions Growth and State Reduction Targets .................................................................................................. V-12 Table V-8 Summary of Emissions Reductions ....................................................................................... V-13

FIGURES
Figure III-1 The Greenhouse Effect ........................................................................................................... III-2 Figure III-2 ..................................................................................................................................................... III-9 Figure III-3 Bird Loss Resulting from Climate Change by the End of the 21st Century in the Central Valley ......................................................................................................................................................... III-10 Figure III-4 How Climate Change Impacts a Watershed .................................................................. III-13 Packet Pg. 568

LIST OF ACRONYMS
General Plan City of Patterson
Climate Change Summary Report July 2010
iii
AB Assembly Bill
BAU Business as Usual
BPS Best Performance Standards
CAP Climate Action Plan
CARB California Air Resources Board
CCAR California Climate Action Registry
CEC California Energy Commission
CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
COP Conference of Parties (Copenhagen 2009)
EIR Environmental Impact Report
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
GHG Greenhouse Gas
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change
OPR California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research SB Senate Bill
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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
I-1
This technical report is a supplement to the City of Patterson’s General Plan Environmental Impact Report (EIR) that analyzes the General Plan’s impact on climate change. This report is intended to support the EIR and help the EIR sufficiently address climate change. By informing the EIR’s analysis of climate change, the Climate Change Summary Report facilitates the EIR’s use as a tiering document under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for purposes of climate change.

Section II (Introduction) explains that the purpose of this report is for inclusion in the EIR. More generally, this section also articulates the link between this report and the General Plan as a whole.

Section III (Climate Change Overview) synthesizes the general context of climate change. It provides an overview of the basic science of climate change and identifies anticipated statewide impacts that can affect the City of Patterson. The section also assesses the regulatory framework of climate change, including relevant legislation, CEQA guidance, litigation, and direction from the California Air Resources Board and the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. These multiple factors necessitate that the EIR address climate change. Thus, this section explains the creation and purpose of this technical report.

Section IV (Addressing Climate Change Through the General Plan and General Plan EIR) explains in further detail the nexus to the EIR and how the technical report addresses climate change.

Specifically, this section explains that the report identifies and quantifies the emissions for each of the three General Plan scenarios, establishes reduction targets, and quantifies the impact of General Plan policies on emissions projections. Through this approach, the report is able to demonstrate the City’s efforts to mitigate its impact on climate change. This section further details how the EIR, through use of this report, will function as a CEQA tiering document for the purposes of climate change. Lastly, this section articulates the distinction between the EIR and the Climate Action Plan (CAP) called for by the General Plan. It explains the relationship between the two and clarifies how the CAP will serve as the implementation document for climate change mitigation.

Section V (Emissions Inventory, Projections, and Reduction Measures) provides the backbone of the report: the technical quantifications that demonstrate the City’s impact on climate change and the General Plan’s mitigation of those impacts. First, the section provides the communitywide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for the baseline year of 2009. Emissions generated by each sector are provided, and technical explanations detail how each calculation was derived. Emissions by sector are provided below in Table I-1. Transportation caused the majority of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, emitting over 60 percent of total emissions in 2009.

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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
General Plan City of Patterson
Climate Change Summary Report July 2010
I-2
TABLE I-1
COMMUNITY-WIDE GHG EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 2009
2009 Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions Metric Tons CO2e1 Percentage of Total Residential 34,696 12.1%
Commercial/Industrial 69,616 24.3%
Transportation 179,885 62.7%
Waste 2,807 1.0%
Total 287,003 100.0%
Note: Due to rounding, totals and percentages may exceed amounts depicted here.

Second, emissions forecasts are created for each of the three planning scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These forecasts depict anticipated emissions that would occur as a result of buildout, operating under business-as-usual conditions. Business as usual assumes no behavior change or policies or programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are implemented. Detailed explanations specify the methodology by which these forecasts were developed. The same forecast methodology was used for each scenario. Variations in emissions projections are due to variations in projected residential and nonresidential uses for the target years. A summary of business-as-usual projections is provided below in Table I-2.

TABLE I-2

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECASTS
GHG
Business-asUsual Forecast

CD JE PC
2030
Forecast
2050
Forecast
2030
Forecast
2050
Forecast
2030
Forecast
2050
Forecast
Residential
Electricity 49,818 62,439 51,652 72,825 71,299 84,128
Residential
Natural Gas 37,704 47,256 39,092 55,116 53,962 63,671
Commercial/
Industrial
Electricity
128,700 148,734 152,235 166,332 146,591 164,317
Commercial/
Industrial
Natural Gas
79,407 91,768 93,928 102,625 90,445 101,382
Transportation 419,259 598,187 579,254 794,996 463,979 673,828 Waste 6,130 7,604 6,324 8,816 8,514 10,031
Subtotal Energy
Emissions 295,628 350,197 336,908 396,898 362,297 413,498 Total 721,017 955,988 922,486 1,200,710 834,790 1,097,357 Note: CD = Compact Development, JE = Jobs Emphasis, PC = Planning Commission Environmental Review Plan *All data is in metric tons of CO2e

1 Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is the common unit of measurement for greenhouse gases. This unit of measurement accounts for the varying global warming potentials of the greenhouse gases.

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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
I-3
Upon creation of these forecasts, the report provides emissions reduction targets that comply with state direction. Lastly, this section quantifies anticipated reductions in emissions resulting from implementation of General Plan policies and state actions. These actions demonstrate the City’s progress in achieving reduction targets. The methodology and reductions achieved through each action are detailed. Total reductions are provided below in Table I-3. This section demonstrates that General Plan policies and state actions mitigate the City’s impact on climate change, but alone are insufficient to meet the City’s reduction targets. However, such early actions demonstrate the City’s commitment to climate change and provide a roadmap for future actions in a CAP.

Lastly, in Section VI (Next Steps), the report summarizes next steps and the necessary links that will ensure the City is sufficiently utilizing this information to address climate change. Specifically, the Climate Change Summary Report concludes with Table VI-9 (also shown below as Table I-3), which details the numeric gap between reductions achieved and reduction targets. The difference between the two represents the reductions that must be achieved through the CAP if the City is to meet its reduction targets.

TABLE I-3

COMPARISON OF FUTURE GHG SCENARIOS WITH REDUCTION TARGETS Scenario Reductions*
2009 2030 2050
Baseline Business
as Usual
With CAP
& State
Business as
Usual
With CAP
& State
Reduction Targets
(as a Percentage Reduction of Baseline Emissions) -15% -42% CD
Total Emissions 287,004 721,017 401,602 955,988 371,631 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 151.22% 39.93% 233.09% 29.49% Actual Percentage Reduction from Businessas-Usual Forecast 55% 44% JE
Total Emissions 287,004 922,486 511,397 1,200,710 410,791 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 221.42% 78.18% 318.36% 43.13% Actual Percentage Reduction from Businessas-Usual Forecast 93% 58% PC
Total Emissions 287,004 834,790 468,599 1,097,357 343,337 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 190.86% 63.27% 282.35% 19.63% Actual Percentage Reduction from Businessas-Usual Forecast 78% 35% Note: CD = Compact Development, JE = Jobs Emphasis, PC = Planning Commission Environmental Review Plan *All data is in metric tons of CO2e
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II. INTRODUCTION
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
II-1
This report is being prepared for the purpose of inclusion in the City’s General Plan EIR. The report identifies significant issues related to climate change within the City of Patterson and mitigations to reduce the impacts of the City on climate change while also proposing mitigations that allow the City to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

This document will be used as a technical document to inform the completion of the climate change section of the EIR. It encompasses General Plan goals and policies and current and future efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce the effects of global climate change. The report is intended to facilitate the EIR’s examination of the potential impacts from GHG emissions associated with the three development scenarios under the City of Patterson General Plan Update. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires that lead agencies consider the reasonably foreseeable adverse environmental effects of projects they are considering for approval. Emissions of greenhouse gases have the potential to adversely affect the environment because such emissions contribute, on a cumulative basis, to global climate change. In turn, global climate change has the potential to cause increased risk of wildfires; affect rain- and snowfall, leading to changes in water supply; affect habitat, leading to adverse effects on biological resources; and lead to other adverse environmental effects.

Cumulative impacts are the collective impacts of one or more past, present, and future projects, that, when combined, result in adverse changes to the environment. When the adverse change is substantial, the cumulative impact is considered significant. The cumulative project list for this issue (global climate changes) comprises anthropogenic (i.e., man-made) GHG emission sources across the entire globe. No project alone would cause noticeable incremental change to the global climate. However, legislation and executive orders on the subject of climate change in California have established a statewide context for and an enforceable statewide cap on GHG emissions. Given the nature of environmental consequences from GHGs and global climate change, CEQA requires the evaluation of the cumulative impacts of GHGs. Even relatively small (on a global basis) additions need to be considered, and small contributions to this cumulative impact (from which significant effects are occurring and are expected to worsen over time) may be potentially considerable (and therefore, significant). Thus, the City of Patterson is analyzing GHG emissions through the process established by CEQA.

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III. CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
III-1
A. CLIMATE CHANGE ESSENTIALS
Awareness of climate change and global warming has increased significantly in recent years.

Although used interchangeably, there is a difference between the terms “climate change” and “global warming.” According to the National Academy of Sciences, climate change refers to any significant, measurable change of climate lasting for an extended period. It can be caused by natural factors and human activities alike. Global warming, on the other hand, is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. The use of the term climate change is becoming more prevalent because it encompasses all changes to the climate, not just temperature. The term climate change is used throughout this report.

Climate change is now a widely accepted fact among scientists, with the only uncertainty remaining about how climate change will affect the earth’s systems over time. Although much of the attention to the topic is global in scale, it is important to realize that climate change affects every community at the local level.

To fully understand climate change, it is important to recognize the naturally occurring “greenhouse effect” and to define the greenhouse gases (GHG) that contribute to this phenomenon. Our planet relies on the natural greenhouse effect. This effect results when the atmosphere captures heat that radiates away from the earth toward space. By retaining heat and warming the planet’s surface, life on earth is possible. Several gases in the atmosphere function as barriers and trap heat within the planet’s atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons. These gases function similar to glass on a greenhouse; the glass panes of a greenhouse allow sunlight to pass into the building but trap heat within it, preventing heat from escaping.2 (Refer to Figure III-1.) GHGs are often referred to in metrics of “carbon dioxide equivalents” (CO2e) as a way to equalize the different potencies of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride). For example, methane (CH4) has 21 times the potency of carbon dioxide (CO2); therefore, 1 metric ton of methane is equivalent to 21 metric tons of CO2.

2 NASA 2009.

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III. CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW
General Plan City of Patterson
Climate Change Summary Report July 2010
III-2
FIGURE III-1

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse gases are transparent to certain wavelengths of the sun’s radiant energy, allowing them to penetrate deep into the atmosphere or all the way to the earth’s surface. Clouds, ice caps, and particles in the air reflect about 30 percent of this radiation, but oceans and land masses absorb the rest (70 percent of the radiation received from the sun) before releasing it back toward space as infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases and clouds effectively prevent some of the infrared radiation from escaping; they trap the heat near the earth’s surface where it warms the lower atmosphere. If this natural barrier of atmospheric gases were not present, the heat would escape into space and the earth’s average global temperatures could be as much as 61 degrees Fahrenheit cooler.3
While the greenhouse effect is a natural process, humans have accelerated the generation of greenhouse gas emissions beyond natural levels. This overabundance of greenhouse gases has led to a dangerous acceleration of the warming of the earth. There is an international consensus that humans have caused the emission of dangerous levels of greenhouse gases. These greenhouse gases are impacting the planet’s climate system and posing dangerous large-scale threats to the planet and humanity at large. Climate change will impact all facets of life. Many of its effects are irreversible and are already impacting communities around the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report’s Working Group I Summary for Policymakers synthesizes current scientific understanding of global climate change and projects future climate change using the most comprehensive set of well-

3 NASA 2009.

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III. CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW
City of Patterson General Plan
July 2010 Climate Change Summary Report
III-3
established global climate models.4 The report incorporates findings of the current effects of global climate change. These findings include:
• The intensity of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in the North Atlantic has increased over the past 30 years, which correlates with increases in tropical sea surface temperatures.
• Droughts have become longer and more intense and have affected larger areas since the 1970s, especially in the tropics and subtropics. • Since 1900 the Northern Hemisphere has lost 7 percent of the maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined worldwide. • Satellite data since 1978 show that the extent of Arctic sea ice during the summer has shrunk by more than 20 percent.
• Since 1961, the world’s oceans have been absorbing more than 80 percent of the heat added to the climate, causing ocean water to expand and contributing to rising sea levels. Between 1993 and 2003, ocean expansion was the largest contributor to sea level rise.
• Melting glaciers and losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have also contributed to recent sea level rise.

As asserted in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, if trends remain unchanged, continued GHG emissions at or above current rates will induce further warming changes in the global climate system that will exceed trends observed to date and pose even greater risks than those currently witnessed.5 Recent statements in 2010 by the IPCC reaffirm the scientific basis and certitude of the scientific foundation of anticipated climate change impacts and trends.6 The IPCC itself does not generate new scientific research, but rather it serves as the final climate change checking point for all scientific work related to climate change. The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open, and transparent basis the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of humaninduced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.

Essentially, the IPCC assesses and synthesizes scientific publications, the majority of which are peer-reviewed and edited publications that “provide an important foundational stage of quality control.”7 Work produced by the IPCC has become the “international gold standard in scientific assessments of climate change,” which is constructed through the work of thousands of unpaid scientists that contribute to each report, the members of the IPCC (the world’s national governments), and its elected leadership.8 The work produced by the IPCC on climate change has “served the international community effectively for over 20 years. The conclusions of the IPCC assessment reports, and especially the Fourth Assessment Report, are as solid as careful

4 IPCC 2007.
5 2007.
6 See IPCC 2010b and c.
7 IPCC 2010c.
8 Ibid.

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science can make them. They reflect the current state of knowledge about one of the most complex and important of all topics — climate change science. The scientific community still has much more to learn about climate change. But the scientific community and the world can count on the IPCC to provide an accurate picture of what is known and what is not known.”9 On March 13, 2010, over 250 scientists signed an open letter that was sent to U.S. federal agencies reaffirming the consensus on climate change and veracity of IPCC findings. In this letter, scientists regret the sensationalist overexaggerations of minor IPCC errors and assert the ultimate legitimacy of climate change while providing procedures for refinement in an enhanced assessment approach. Primary signatories to this document include scientists from Yale, Stanford, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Colombia University, and Pennsylvania State University.10
Given the scientific basis of basic climate change facts and expected trends, the challenge remains to prepare for and mitigate climate change through deliberate action. Efforts to address climate change are constantly unfolding, but existing commitments and programs have fallen short of climate change benchmarks. World leaders convened in December 2009 to participate in the intergovernmental United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. This negotiating process on climate change consisted primarily of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP); it was one instance of a yearly occurrence to review implementation of the COP. The COP adopts decisions and resolutions, and establishes rules for its practical and effective implementation — ultimately, the reduction of GHG emissions.11 It provides the international framework for action to address climate change. At the 2009 conference in Copenhagen, 60 developed and developing economies pledged to reduce GHG emissions. However, according to a report released by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) in February 2010, these pledges are insufficient to restrict a rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius or less in 2050.12 The 2-degree temperature cap by 2050 is acknowledged by UNEP to be the goal that will better ensure that the most catastrophic impacts of climate change are averted. UNEP estimates that to achieve this aim, between 2020 and 2050, global emissions will have to drop between 48 and 72 percent; this translates into a target of cutting GHG emissions by approximately 3 percent per year between 2020 and 2050.13 Adaptation or mitigation alone cannot avoid all of the anticipated impacts of climate change, but in coordination, these two strategies can complement each other and reduce climate change risks.14 The burden to implement these strategies falls to governments. In receiving this burden, governments also are faced with tremendous opportunity: acting on these strategies yields both mitigation and economic benefits.

B. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
California is already experiencing the impacts of climate change. Climate change has exacerbated existing deficiencies in infrastructure and sensitivities of natural resources. Research suggests that the state will experience hotter and drier conditions, reductions in winter snow and

9 Ibid.
10 Open Letter from U.S. Scientists on the IPCC, March 13, 2010. 11 UNFCC 2010.
12 February 23, 2010.
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.

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increases in winter rains, sea level rise, and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events.

Such compounded impacts will impact economic systems throughout the state; for instance, these changes are expected to affect the viability of agriculture in California. Reductions in crop production and water for irrigation could create food shortages and disrupt local and regional commodity systems.15 To refrain from action is costly and risky; the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy estimates that no action to address the impacts of climate change will lead to sector-wide losses of “‘tens of billions of dollars per year in direct costs’ and ‘expose trillions of dollars of assets to collateral risk.’” Further, $2.5 trillion of the state’s $4 trillion in real estate assets is at risk from “extreme weather events, sea level rise, and wildfires.”16 Risks from climate change are summarized in the following sections and linked to Patterson’s unique context. It is essential that such risks be understood and addressed as part of the local planning process. As asserted by the California Natural Resources Agency:

The most effective adaptation strategies relate to short- and long-term decisions.

Most of these decisions are the responsibility of local community planning entities.

As a result, communities with General Plans and Local Coastal Plans should begin, when possible, to amend their plans to assess climate change impacts, identify areas most vulnerable to these impacts, and develop reasonable and rational risk reduction strategies using the CAS [Climate Adaptation Strategy] as guidance.

Every effort will be made to provide tools, such as interactive climate impact maps, to assist in these efforts.17
Consistent with this guidance, this Climate Change Summary Report draws on the Climate Adaptation Strategy and the most recently available tools and information, connecting them to locally relevant issues within the city. Utilizing the strategies provided by the California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009), this section identifies anticipated statewide risks and local considerations for resiliency or adaptation.

In understanding local risks, the City is limited by the nature of the field of climate science: the anticipated impacts of climate change are based on scientific findings that are grounded in reality, but at best provide only ranges of quantitative estimates of impacts. Many impacts and risks can only be addressed in general and qualitative terms and are largely scenariodependent.18 Further, state and other entities are currently in the process of developing and refining tools that can help jurisdictions understand local risks and impacts with greater specificity. That these impacts can be expected is testified to by a strong scientific foundation; however, the scale and severity of these impacts is still uncertain and will be determined by unfolding trends, trends that are still only largely understood at larger, regional or statewide scales.

15 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.
16 Ibid; citing a 2008 report by the University of California, Berkeley and the nonprofit organization Next 10, available at www.next10.org/research/research_ccrr.html. 17 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.
18 Schaaf & Wheeler 2009.

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B.1 INCREASED RATE OF WILDFIRES
Risks
Wildfire risk is based on a combination of factors including precipitation, winds, temperature, and vegetation. These factors will be impacted by increased warming. Wildfires are likely to grow in number and size throughout the state as a result of increased temperatures induced by climate change. Even under the “medium” warming scenario predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), wildfire risk will likely increase by 55 percent in California.19
Further, as wildfires increase in frequency and size, they will also increase in intensity.20 The factors which contribute to the risk of catastrophic fires (fuel loads, high temperatures, dry conditions, and wind) are typically present already in summer and fall seasons in California, but can exist at other times of the year, especially in drought conditions, and are likely to be exacerbated by climate change.

Considerations for Resiliency
According to the General Plan Background Report, the City of Patterson has an insufficient fire protection service to satisfy City-established thresholds of fire preparedness.21 The added urgency of climate change and its augmentation of existing fire risks provide even further impetus for the City to address this deficiency.

Fire protection services to lands within city limits are provided by the Patterson Fire Department, while fire protection to lands in the larger General Plan planning area are provided by the Patterson Fire Department in conjunction with the West Stanislaus Fire District. These are volunteer fire departments that share a full-time fire chief and station in Patterson. According to the Insurance Services Office rating system, the Patterson Fire Department has a ranking of 6 within city limits and ~9 outside city limits. These ratings are based on fire department location, personnel, and equipment. The City-established ratio of desired firefighters per 1,000 population is 4.7, with 1 to 1.25 of the 4.7 firefighters serving as full-time fire protection personnel. As of 2006, to provide the protection required for buildout of the 1992 General Plan, approximately 40 additional firefighters would have been needed.22 This buildout scenario is significantly smaller than the adopted buildout scenario under the 2010 General Plan.

B.2 NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON WILDLIFE
Risks
Increased global temperatures and resource depletion exacerbated by climate change are causing disruptions in animal migration and plant pollination. As temperatures rise, species are moving north in California or to higher elevations. This change in migration disrupts the food

19 California Climate Change Center, Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California, 2006. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-500-2006-077/CEC-500-2006-077.PDF. Accessed December 3, 2008.
20 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.
21 City of Patterson 2007.
22 Ibid.

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chain and prevents some plant species from being pollinated. Water and food supplies are expected to be more variable and to shift as the seasons change on different time frames.

Further, those species that are unable to migrate face the danger of extinction: “The amount of future warming expected in California may likely exceed the tolerance of endemic species (i.e., those that are native to a specific location and that only occur there) given their limited distribution and microclimate.”23 The National Audubon Society estimates that future bird loss as a result of climate change will vary greatly; on average, it is anticipated that California will lose 6 percent of its bird species under a low emissions scenario, 14 percent under a moderate emissions scenario, and 19 percent under a high emissions scenario. Such losses will not be uniform across the state, but the Central Valley is anticipated to have “hotspots of loss.”24 With vegetation, reduction in soil moisture will result in early dieback of many plants, potentially leading to conflicts with animal breeding seasons and other natural processes. Many of the potential effects on wildlife are still being studied, but due to inability to adapt to new climates, the potential for severe species loss is present.

Several potential hydrological changes associated with global climate change could also specifically influence the ecology of aquatic life in California and have several negative effects on cold-water fish. For example, if climate change raises air temperature by just a few degrees Celsius, this change could be enough to raise the water temperatures above the tolerance of salmon and trout in many streams, favoring instead non-native fishes such as sunfish and carp.

Unsuitable summer temperatures would be particularly problematic for many of the threatened and endangered fish that spend summers in cold-water streams, either as adults or juveniles, or both. In short, climate change could significantly affect threatened and endangered fish in California. It could also cause non-threatened and non-endangered fish to reach the point where they become designated as such.25
Considerations for Resiliency
The City of Patterson is a Central Valley community, with a dry-summer subtropical climate, rainy winters, and relatively warm, dry summers. Waterways and canals run through the General Plan study area, including the San Joaquin River and Salado Creek.26 With an anticipated raise in statewide temperatures, it is likely that Patterson will become increasingly dry, experiencing hotter and warmer summers. Both natural and altered habitat types exist within the city. Natural habitat types comprise a very small percentage of the General Plan study area and are primarily associated with water along the San Joaquin River, including riparian habitats, river channels, and valley grasslands.27 Several protected plant and wildlife species are present, including species that are protected under state or federal endangered species law or designated as species of special concern.28 Of these, many are native species to California.29 While there are numerous designated protected species in the General Plan study area, a small selection of these species includes:

23 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.
24 Monahan and Langham February 2009.
25California Department of Water Resources 2006.
26 City of Patterson 2007, Natural Resources chapter.
27 Ibid.
28 Ibid.
29 Admin Draft Patterson GPEIR – Biology Report.

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• California tiger salamander (State List Threatened; State Fully Protected; California Species of Special Concern)
• California red legged-frog (Federally Threatened; State Fully Protected; California Species of Special Concern designation)
• Show madia (State Rare; California Native Plant Society: plants rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere)
• Foothill yellow-legged frog (California Species of Special Concern) • Western pond turtle (California Species of Special Concern) • Big tarplant (California Native Plant Society: plants rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere)
• Round-leaved filaree (California Native Plant Society: plants rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere)
• Lemmon’s jewelflower (California Native Plant Society: plants rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere)
• Diamond-petaled California poppy (California Native Plant Society: plants rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere)30 Vulnerable species such as these are likely to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change: increased temperatures, warmer waterways, more severe weather, and drier climate will alter the delicate ecosystems that support them and possibly force fragile species into altered migration patterns or facilitate their extinction. More specifically, Audubon California has estimated the ranges of bird loss that are expected to occur by the end of the 21st century as a result of a climate change in the Central Valley.31 Of the estimated species that Audubon California has showcased as anticipated to decline in the Central Valley, four of them are identified by the General Plan Update EIR as existing within the City of Patterson General Plan study area: Swainson’s hawk, tricolored blackbird, western meadowlark, and yellow-billed magpie. Notably, of these only Swainson’s hawk and the tricolored blackbird are designated as protected species or species of special concern. This illustrates the fact that climate change will not only impact sensitive species, but also those that are currently in relative health. For instance, although the yellow-billed magpie is not currently endangered or threatened, its entire global population lives within California’s Central Valley and Coastal ranges; climate change may reduce this bird’s range by as much as 75 percent as depicted in Figure III-3. Note only four of the five birds shown in this graphic are locally present in Patterson.32

30 Ibid.
31 Monahan and Langham February 2009.
32 Ibid.

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FIGURE III-2
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FIGURE III-3
BIRD LOSS RESULTING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE BY THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY33 Climate change will impact a range of species, both endangered and threatened species and those of relative health. Multi-pronged adaptation strategies have been proposed to prepare for this impact. Notably, the California Climate Adaptation Strategy has established several biology and habitat adaptation strategies, including:
• Manage for restoring and enhancing ecosystem function to conserve both species and habitats in a changing climate.
• Adjust management actions as appropriate for threatened and endangered species.
• Prioritize research needs and pursue collaborative partnerships to ensure that best available science is informing management actions.
• Re-evaluate existing frameworks to incorporate climate change and seek regulatory changes as appropriate.34

33 Monahan and Langham February 2009.
34 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.

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B.3 DETERIORATING PUBLIC HEALTH
Risks
Heat waves are expected to have a major impact on public health, as well as decreasing air quality and increasing mosquito breeding and mosquito-borne diseases. Further, climate change is expected to alter the spread and prevalence of disease vectors, in addition to leading to a possible decrease in food quality and security.35 Vector control districts throughout the state are already evaluating how they will address the expected changes to California’s climate. The elderly, young, and vulnerable populations most likely to be impacted by climate change are also those that often lack sufficient resources to adapt. Such vulnerable demographics are likely to need assistance to respond to climate change. Social equity issues related to the unequal distribution of resources and increased costs to address community-wide health risks will need to be addressed proactively to reduce the potential for financial strain on the City.

Considerations for Resiliency
The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) has established a strategy for identifying and reducing health vulnerabilities by providing tools for local health departments and other agencies. For instance, CDPH suggests the establishment of community-wide assessments to identify homes occupied by disabled persons and seniors, and to assess housing stock deficiencies for these populations that will be especially vulnerable to increased temperatures and extreme weather. These assessments should then be complemented with retrofit programs and weatherproofing.36 Additional strategies proposed by the CDPH include social engagement, outreach to vulnerable populations, and educational outreach.37 The City stands to benefit from programs and strategies being developed at statewide or regional levels to deal with this issue.

B.4 A DECREASING SUPPLY OF FRESH WATER
Risks
The state’s water supply is already under stress and is anticipated to shrink under even the most conservative climate change scenario. Warmer average global temperatures cause more rainfall than snowfall, making the winter snowfall season shorter and accelerating the rate at which the snowpacks melt in the spring. The Sierra snowpack is estimated to experience a 25 to 40 percent reduction from its average by 2050.38 With rain and snow events becoming less predictable and more variable, the rate of flooding could increase and California’s ability to store and transport fresh water for consumption could decrease. Warmer temperatures will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates from plants and lead to increased irrigation needs; further, warmer weather will lead to longer growing seasons and increased agricultural demand for water.39

35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
37 Ibid.
38 Department of Water Resources 2008.
39 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.

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Considerations for Resiliency
The City of Patterson’s water is supplied by groundwater sources. Overdraft is unlikely; as recently as February 2006, an aquifer test supplemented the 2000 Urban Water Management Plant, confirming that the City “has a reliable supply of water and is not vulnerable to reductions in deliveries in dry years.”40 While groundwater is assumed to be the main source of water supply for the City and is the only adopted water strategy, in 2005 the City initiated a Water Supply Planning Study to investigate programs that would use combinations of groundwater and surface water to supply future water demand.41
Under the current General Plan (1992), the City estimates that groundwater will adequately satisfy future demand until 2030; however, it is important to note that climate change is expected to accelerate and alter natural water cycles.42 Meeting the water demand associated with any of the General Plan Update Equal-Weight Alternatives will require secondary water sources. As illustrated by the Department of Water Resources, climate change affects the hydrology of water systems and groundwater supplies through several means and is generally expected to reduce existing groundwater reserves.43 Further, climate change will limit the availability of alternative surface water supply systems available to the City. Hence, climate change adds further impetus to protect and preserve existing water supplies and to determine how best to achieve appropriate water supply for future development.

40 City of Patterson 2007, VI. Public Services and Facilities. 41 City of Patterson 2007, VI. Public Services and Facilities. 42 Ibid.
43 2008.

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FIGURE III-4
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS A WATERSHED44
Many statewide efforts exist that are aimed at protecting water resources and supporting integrated, regional approaches that respond to climate change’s impact on water. In its 2008 white paper Managing an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for California’s Water, the California Department of Water Resources establishes several strategies that the City of Patterson stands to benefit from. By positioning itself for such initiatives, the City can leverage resources and better facilitate its ability to benefit from statewide programs.

Department of Water Resources strategies include:
• Utilize the Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) framework for coordinated and comprehensive approaches to determine appropriate water demand and supply options in response to climate change. By 2011, IRWM plans should include specific elements that adapt to climate change, including regional assessments to long-term water supply viability and integration with land use policies to promote water efficiency.

44 California Department of Water Resources 2008.

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• Identification and funding of focused climate change impacts and adaptation research and analysis pilot projects.45
B.5 INCREASED SEVERITY AND FREQUENCY OF FLOOD EVENTS
Risks
Climate change is forecast to result in more intense rainfall events that will generate more frequent or more extensive runoff and flooding. Localized flood events may increase in periods of heavy rain. As explained by the Climate Adaptation Strategy, California’s water system is structured and operated to balance between water storage for dry months and flood protection in rainy seasons.46 Although climate change is likely to lead to a drier climate, risks from more intense and regular extreme rainfall events can generate more frequent and/or more severe flooding that upsets this managed balance between storage and protection.

Additionally, erosion may increase and water quality may decrease as a result of increased rainfall amounts.

Considerations for Resiliency
Patterson is located in Stanislaus County, an area that is highly vulnerable to flooding. The Patterson and Newman area experienced flooding in 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1968, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1983, and 1986. In the 1990s, flooding also occurred several times along Salado Creek in Patterson.47 Infrastructure projects have been completed to reduce flooding risks in the area.

At the statewide level, the Department of Water Resources has established a target to develop a Central Valley Flood Protection Plan by January 1, 2012, that includes actions to improve integrated flood management and considers the expected impacts of climate change. This plan is intended to provide strategies for protection and environmental resilience.48 C. REGULATORY SETTING
The State of California’s elected officials have taken an aggressive stance on combating climate change. The State has developed a framework of legislation that provides a method for local and state governments to address climate change. The framework is described below.

C.1 CALIFORNIA’S LEGISLATIVE DIRECTION
California has a long history of proven leadership in addressing climate change that spans the last 20 years. In 1988, before the world had even arrived at a consensus on the causes of climate change, Assembly Bill (AB) 4420 (Sher, Chapter 1506, Statutes of 1988) designated the California Energy Commission (CEC) as the lead agency for climate change issues in California.49 Since that time, there has been a flurry of initiatives in California to address climate change. These initiatives have strengthened the ability of entities in California to engage in accurate data

45 2008
46 California Natural Resources Agency 2009.
47 City of Patterson 2007, IX. Health and Safety.
48 California Department of Water Resources 2008.
49 California Energy Commission, 2009a.

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collection and have created ambitious targets and regulations that will directly lead to reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Not only have California’s efforts earned it a role as the leader in the United States for climate planning strategies, but the state has received world attention and accolades for its tireless efforts.

Currently, the State of California is the 15th largest emitter in the world of greenhouse gas emissions, ultimately accounting for 2 percent of global emissions.50 In June of 2005, Governor Schwarzenegger issued a landmark Executive Order establishing progressive greenhouse gas emissions targets for the entire state. Executive Order (EO) S-3-05 outlines the following goals:
• By 2010, reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 2000 levels; • By 2020 reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels; • By 2050, reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels.

To support these reduction targets, the California legislature adopted the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, also known as AB 32. The law requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop regulatory and market mechanisms that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. In December 2008, CARB approved the AB 32 Scoping Plan outlining regulatory and market mechanisms to achieve the goal of AB 32. The plan cites local government action as an integral partner to achieving the State’s goals.

Numerous other actions have been taken in the state. The California Climate Action Registry (CCAR) was created by the State in 2000 through Senate Bill (SB) 1771 (Sher, Chapter 1018, Statutes of 2000). This organization is a nonprofit entity established to assist entities in California working to create GHG emissions baseline inventories.51 It originally provided a means for entities to voluntarily record greenhouse gas emissions in expectation of a program that would allow these to be credited as early reductions.52 In 2001, SB 527 directed the CEC to provide specific guidance to the CCAR on issues including the development of GHG emissions protocols and the qualifications of third parties providing technical assistance and certification of inventories.53 Subsequently, in 2002, AB 1493 (Pavley, Chapter 200, Statutes of 2002) directed CARB to create regulations that would lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, light-duty trucks, and noncommercial vehicles sold in California.54 In 2006, SB 1368 (Perata, Chapter 598, Statutes of 2006) established greenhouse gas emission performance standards for longer-term financial investments in base-load electricity generation to catalyze the transition to cleaner energy use. This bill will also help utility companies transition to the cap-and-trade program that will be established by AB 32.55 AB 32 has caused a ripple effect among cities, counties, and environment groups throughout the state. In State of California Attorney General v. San Bernardino County in 2007, the California Attorney General’s Office argued that the Environmental Impact Report for San Bernardino’s new General Plan did not conform to the overall goals of AB 32 because it did not adequately analyze or mitigate the effects of development on global warming. The County settled with the State by agreeing to produce a

50 California Air Resources Board 2008.
51 California Energy Commission 2009a.
52 California Air Resources Board, December 2008.
53 California Energy Commission 2009a.
54 California Air Resources Board, December 2008.
55 California Air Resources Board, December 2008.

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greenhouse gas emissions reduction plan and, at the same time, furthering California’s commitment to addressing climate change.

SB 97 was passed in August 2007 to clarify responsibilities for analyzing greenhouse gas emissions per the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). This law formally acknowledges that climate change is an important environmental issue that requires analysis under CEQA. The Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) developed guidelines to address climate change in CEQA documents. These guidelines were adopted in January 2010 by the State Resources Agency.

In September 2008, the Attorney General reached another settlement agreement concerning climate change, this time with the City of Stockton. According to the Attorney General’s Office and the Sierra Club, the City of Stockton did not adequately address climate change in its 2035 General Plan Update and corresponding Environmental Impact Report. The City of Stockton settled with the Attorney General by agreeing to adopt a climate action plan designed to reduce sprawl, increase infill development, promote public transit, and encourage more energy-efficient buildings.

EO S-3-05, AB 32, SB 97, and the Attorney General’s actions have made California a global leader in climate change policy. Numerous bills concerning energy use, land use, transportation, and other climate change topics have been passed in Sacramento. Some of these bills, like SB 375 passed in September 2008, will result in regional approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. SB 375 aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by linking transportation funding to land use planning. It requires Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to create Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCSs) in their regional transportation plans (RTPs) for the purpose of reducing suburban sprawl. It also creates incentives for implementation of the SCS. Additional efforts are under way to affect the overall transportation sector by mandating fewer emissions from vehicles via AB 1493 (Pavley), signed into law in 2002 and approved by the U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2009. The Pavley bill requires car manufacturers to reduce tailpipe emissions from new passenger cars and light trucks.

C.1 FEDERAL DIRECTION
The federal government has yet to enact legislation for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

However, the EPA releases endangerment findings for carbon dioxide, officially bringing the enforcement capabilities of the EPA to the issue of greenhouse gas emissions. Even without mandates, new activity has been ushered in with the approval of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA), also referred to as the federal stimulus package. Through the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant (EECBG) program, a division of ARRA, the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE) is providing a total of $3.2 billion to cities and counties to reduce fossil fuel emissions; reduce total energy use; improve energy efficiency in the transportation, building, and other appropriate sectors; and create and retain jobs.56 Using this money, jurisdictions across the United States are allocating funds to initiate climate change planning and achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

C.3 SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT DIRECTION The City of Patterson is located in the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District’s jurisdiction. On December 17, 2009, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District adopted

56 DOE, October 16, 2009.

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Guidance for Valley Land-use Agencies in Addressing GHG Emission Impacts for New Projects under CEQA and District Policy – Addressing GHG Emission Impacts for Stationary Source Projects Under CEQA When Serving as the Lead Agency. Both documents utilize Best Performance Standards (BPS) to help lead agencies in assessing the significance of a project’s contribution of GHGs on global climate change. A Best Performance Standard utilizes established metrics or project design elements to reduce GHG emissions and provide a consistent approach to quantifying estimated emissions reductions. The intent of the BPS is to simplify and streamline the CEQA review process and establish clear criteria for lead agencies to apply in project assessment. These policies — when implemented — would result in a less than cumulatively significant impact on climate change.57 These BPS scenarios and related guidance are available to valley land-use agencies for adoption to utilize in addressing GHG emissions when the agency serves as a lead agency for CEQA purposes. The December 17, 2009, Final Staff Report Climate Change Action Plan: Addressing GHG Emissions Impacts under CEQA further summarizes the BPS strategies to address GHGs through CEQA. Overall, these guiding policies are intended to supplement the lack of guidance for addressing climate change in the valley.

As of the writing of this report, the legitimacy of utilizing this approach to mitigate GHG emissions has been challenged by the State of California Attorney General’s Office. Although the Attorney General’s Office stated that they appreciate the District’s extensive efforts, it is “concerned that the approaches suggested in the Staff Report will not withstand legal scrutiny and may result in significant lost opportunities for the Air District and local governments to require mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.”58 Therefore, while the District’s work creates a good interim framework to address GHG emissions in the absence of a programmatic approach for mitigating GHG emissions, the comments of the Attorney General’s Office create a situation where the decision to use the Air District’s guidelines should be weighed against the legal uncertainty of relying on such guidance. Due to the legal uncertainty of the Air District’s approach, the BPS was not used in this analysis.

57 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, 2010. 58 Attorney General’s Office, November 4, 2009.

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A. PRIMARY PURPOSES
As a component of the City of Patterson General Plan Update process, the climate change section of the Environmental Impact Report will be addressing climate change, consistent with the guidance included in the CEQA guidelines and from the California Air Resources Board, the California Resources Agency, and the California Attorney General’s Office. By integrating the findings of this Climate Change Summary Report (CCSR) into the General Plan Update process, the City will be positioning itself for a legally defensible, long-term approach to addressing greenhouse gas emissions reductions and climate change. By integrating this process of policy development with preliminary impact analysis, this report ensures a holistic, coordinated approach that is conducive to the City’s needs with the Final EIR. This approach to the CCSR will ultimately position the City for success in preparing an appropriate Mitigation Monitoring and Reporting Program and equip it for long-term viability that is facilitated by a streamlined and integrated planning process. Specifically, the EIR will utilize this report to accomplish the following:
• Identify and quantify major sources of GHG emissions from community-wide activities within the City of Patterson municipal boundary for each of the three planning scenarios;
• Establish GHG emission reduction targets consistent with AB 32; • Provide feasible strategies to reduce emissions from energy use, transportation, land use, and solid waste to achieve targets utilizing General Plan policies; • Mitigate the impacts of the City of Patterson on climate change (by reducing GHG emissions consistent with the direction of the State of California via AB 32 and Executive Order S-03-05);
• Establish a CEQA tiering document via the General Plan and General Plan EIR for the City for climate change that will apply to development projects; • Outline the necessity of implementation as a programmatic CEQA tiering document and as the basis of the City’s Climate Action Plan (CAP).

B. IMPLEMENTATION FUNCTIONS
This report will facilitate the EIR’s function as an ongoing implementation tool for the City and will accomplish this through two tasks: (1) laying the foundation for the Climate Action Plan called for in the Draft General Plan, and (2) functioning as a programmatic CEQA tiering document.

The Draft General Plan calls for adoption of a Climate Action Plan (CAP) within 24 months of adoption of the General Plan (see Policy AR 7.1, Implementation Measure AR 5, and Implementation Measure NR 8). The CAP will establish strategies for public input, a baseline inventory, goals for reducing emissions, resiliency and adaptation programs, reduction targets, strategies to achieve targets, a green building program, and a renewable energy portfolio standard. This report serves as an important foundation for the CAP; it provides direction for a more in-depth baseline GHG inventory, establishes reduction targets, and quantifies the reductions of relevant General Plan policies. As asserted by the Attorney General’s Office, if the CAP will serve as the centerpiece of a CEQA climate change mitigation strategy, it should be Packet Pg. 591
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prepared at the same time as the General Plan Update and EIR.59 In the case of Patterson, climate change mitigation will primarily be achieved through policies and goals already provided in the General Plan, including the development of a climate action plan. Therefore, since the CAP will not serve as the centerpiece of the City’s climate change mitigation strategy, it was not prepared concurrently with the General Plan Update and EIR. Rather, climate change mitigation is depicted through the quantified impact of General Plan goals and policies on GHG emission reductions.

The CAP will specifically accomplish the following elements, pursuant to the CEQA guidelines.

Once the CAP is adopted following certification of an EIR, it may be used in the cumulative impacts analysis of later projects. Specific tasks for the CAP include:
• Quantify greenhouse gas emissions, both existing and projected over a specified time period, resulting from activities within a defined geographic area; • Establish a level, based on substantial evidence, below which the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions from activities covered by the plan would not be cumulatively considerable;
• Identify and analyze the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from specific actions or categories of actions anticipated within the geographic area; • Specify measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis, would collectively achieve the specified emissions level; • Establish a mechanism to monitor the plan’s progress toward achieving the level and to require amendment if the plan is not achieving specified levels; • Be adopted in a public process following environmental review.60 In addition to serving as a foundation for the CAP, the climate change section of the EIR will serve as a programmatic tiering document for the purposes of impacts on climate change. It utilizes clear metrics to quantify the impact of General Plan policies and programs on GHG emissions. These policies and programs will be implemented on an ongoing basis.

The climate change section provides streamlined CEQA review that saves the City time, money, and liability. As applicable, the measures and standards assessed here will be used in project review. If a proposed development is consistent with the emissions reduction measures included in this Climate Change Summary Report, the project would be considered to have a less than significant impact on climate change and emissions consistent with the direction of the California Attorney General and Public Resources Code 21083.3.61 Such projects will be utilizing standards that the City has already quantified and demonstrated as contributing to its GHG emissions reduction targets and assessed through CEQA. The measures that are discussed later in this report are presented in a transparent manner, clearly depicting the assumptions and standards that were calculated to determine GHG reductions.

59 September 1, 2009.
60 California Natural Resources Agency, December 30, 2009. 61 Ibid.

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C. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES TO BE ADDRESSED THROUGH THE EIR The climate change section of the EIR is premised on a unique approach to addressing climate change. It creates an initial and defensible framework as part of a longer-term implementation and policy program. The primary components of its role and limitations include the following points.
• The EIR facilitates mitigation of climate change emissions. The climate change section of the EIR creates a legally defensible framework for the General Plan Update by establishing a GHG emissions inventory baseline and projections and quantifying the self-mitigating policies and actions contained within the General Plan. The impact of these policies and actions are depicted with clearly articulated metrics that are conducive to direct implementation; this transparency supports and legitimates the City’s assessment of the impact of General Plan implementation.

Since existing General Plan goals and policies provide the centerpiece of its climate change mitigation strategy, quantification of these impacts provides a sufficient vehicle for climate change mitigation, apart from adoption of a full CAP. Further, this quantification represents a “good-faith effort, based on available information, to calculate, model, or estimate the amount of CO2 and other GHG emissions from a project,” as the Attorney General asserts is required for purposes of CEQA.62 Given available data in the General Plan EIR, at this stage only community-wide emissions and reduction can be quantified. It is recognized that the CAP will surpass and build on this foundation with an updated inventory and additional reduction measures, but this foundation of a baseline community-wide emissions inventory and reductions from General Plan goals and policies is the City’s primary vehicle to address climate change.
• Link initial GHG inventory and reduction measures to long-term climate change implementation. The General Plan calls for a comprehensive Climate Action Plan to be adopted within 24 months of General Plan adoption. The CAP will provide the robust policy framework and implementation guide for climate change with broader scope and efficacy by establishing a more comprehensive menu of reduction measures, detailed implementation items, and more detailed actions to deal with resiliency and adaptation. The CAP will function as more of a mitigation document and holistic plan, whereas the climate change section of the EIR serves as its foundation and quantifies the bulk of climate change mitigation strategies, those that will be directly captured within General Plan policies and programs themselves.

D. REDUCTION TARGETS
D.1 GLOBAL, NATIONAL, AND STATE INVENTORIES
Global Inventory
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), worldwide GHG emissions in 2004 were 30 billion metric tons of CO2e per year (including ongoing

62 Ibid.

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emissions from both industrial and agricultural sources, but excluding emissions from land use changes).63
National Inventory
As part of its commitments to the UNFCCC, the EPA has developed an inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs. This inventory is periodically updated, with the latest report published in 2009. In 2004, the United States emitted approximately 8 billion metric tons of CO2e, or approximately 25 metric tons per person per year.64 It is estimated that the United States contributes up to 35 percent of the world’s CO2e emissions.

The EPA reports that total U.S. emissions rose by 17 percent from 1990 to 2007.65 A 1.1 percent decrease in emissions was noted from 2005 to 2006, which is reported as attributable to (1) climate conditions, (2) reduced use of petroleum products for transportation, and (3) increased use of natural gas over other fuel sources. The inventory noted that the transportation sector emits approximately 33 percent of CO2 emissions, with 60 percent of those emissions coming from personal automobile use. Residential uses, primarily from energy use, accounted for 20 percent of CO2 emissions. After the decrease from 2005 to 2006, emissions from fuel combustion grew from 2006 to 2007.66
As a part of the EPA’s responsibility to develop and update an inventory of national GHG emissions and sinks, the EPA compared trends of other U.S. data. Over the period between 1990 and 2006, GHG emissions increased at a rate of approximately 0.9 percent per year. Population growth was slightly higher at 1.1 percent, while energy and fossil fuel consumption were more closely related at 1.0 percent. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy generation grew at much higher rates.

State of California Inventory
California GHG or CO2e emissions were estimated at 484 million metric tons of CO2e in 2006, which is approximately 6 percent of total emissions from the entire United States.67 Transportation is the largest source of GHG emissions in California, contributing approximately 40 percent of the total emissions. Electricity generation is second, at over 20 percent, but California also imports electricity during the summer, which brings energy sources up to approximately 25 percent.

Industrial activities account for approximately 20 percent of the state’s emissions. On a perperson basis, GHG emissions are lower in California than in most other states; however, California is a populous state and the second largest emitter of GHGs in the United States and one of the largest emitters in the world.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, GHG emissions in California are estimated to increase to approximately 600 million metric tons of CO2e by 2020. CARB staff has estimated the 1990 statewide emissions level to be 427 million metric tons of CO2e, therefore requiring a reduction of almost 30 percent in emissions by 2020 to meet the AB 32 goal.

63 UNFCCC, 2008.
64 US Environmental Protection Agency, 2008.
65 US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009.
66 Ibid.
67 California Air Resources Board 2010. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data 2000–2008.

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A. BASELINE GHG INVENTORY
A.1 EMISSIONS SOURCES
The purpose of the inventory process is to create a baseline against which future changes in emissions can be compared. The baseline inventory includes major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, including the following:
• Vehicle trips with origins and destinations within the city, based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) calculated by TJKM for the General Plan Update • Residential natural gas and electricity consumption, based on average county consumption rates established in the Energy Consumption Data Management System (ECDMS)68
• Commercial natural gas and electricity consumption, based on average state- and nationwide consumption rates for nonresidential uses69
• Waste produced within the city and sent to landfill, based on disposal rates provided by CalRecycle and EPA’s WARM model
While an official protocol for community-wide emissions is not yet available from the State, this inventory is consistent with current best practices for greenhouse gas inventories. Inventories are commonly restricted to energy, transportation, and waste analysis due to lack of methodology or lack of reliable data for a programmatic-level document to quantify other sources of emissions. This results in the exclusion of the following emission sources:
• Construction-related emissions
• Off-road vehicle emissions
• Propane emissions
• Refrigerant emissions
• Aircraft emissions
• Sewage treatment emissions
As inventory protocol and methodology advances, these sources can be incorporated into the baseline inventory. The current emissions sources are believed to comprise the vast majority of community-wide emissions.

For consistency with the California Environmental Quality Act and Attorney General guidance, the baseline year for the inventory is 2009. This data is most readily available and will be most integrated with General Plan forecasts.

68 California Energy Commission, 2008.
69 US Energy Information Administration, 2005
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A.2 BASELINE GHG EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
In calendar year 2009, activities within the geopolitical boundary of Patterson emitted 287,003 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) into the atmosphere. “Carbon dioxide equivalent” is a way to equalize the different global warming potentials of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases. For instance, methane (CH4) has 21 times the global warming potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide (CO2); therefore 1 metric ton of methane is equivalent to 21 metric tons of carbon dioxide.

TABLE V-1
COMMUNITY-WIDE GHG EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 2009
2009 Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions Metric Tons CO2e Percentage of Total Residential 34,696 12.1%
Commercial/Industrial 69,616 24.3%
Transportation 179,885 62.7%
Waste 2,807 1.0%
Total 287,003 100.0%
Note: Due to rounding, percentages and totals may result in different sums than those depicted here.

As shown above in Table V-1, the transportation sector is responsible for the majority of emissions released within the Patterson community (62.7 percent). Electricity and natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial/industrial sectors constitute the second largest sector (36.4 percent), with waste comprising the smallest sector (1 percent).

A.3 METHODOLOGY
For each sector accounted for in the baseline inventory, a description of the emissions sources, input data, and output data is provided below. Explanatory notes follow.

TABLE V-2

BASELINE INVENTORY GHG EMISSIONS
Sector Emission Source Input Data Output Data CO2e
(metric tons/year)
Residential Electricity consumption 63,421,471 kWh (1) 19,749 Natural gas consumption 2,237,529 therms (1) 14,947
Subtotal 34,696 (2)
Commercial/ Industrial Electricity consumption 138,259,914 kWh (3) 43,053 Natural gas consumption 3,976,557 therms (3) 26,563
Subtotal 69,616 (2)
Transportation Vehicle miles traveled (all
vehicles and fuel types) 343,164,360 VMT(4) 179,885 (5) Waste
Waste landfilled and
alternative daily cover
(ADC) (6)
7,920 tons (7) 2,807 (8)
Total 287,003
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1) Residential electricity and natural gas consumption (inputs):
a. Utilizes most current countywide Energy Consumption Data Management System (ECDMS) energy consumption totals for the year 2007 to determine a ratio of energy consumed per household.
b. Assumes uniform rate of consumption across the county for both electricity and natural gas. Determines average household energy consumption through the ratio of households in the county to total countywide energy consumption by type (natural gas or electricity). Ratio of average household energy consumption is applied to households in the city. Ratio of energy consumption is based on 2007 household and consumption figures (the most recent year for which ECDMS is available).
c. Assumes that energy consumption rates as calculated in 2007 remain constant until 2009.
2) Electricity and natural gas emissions (outputs) for residential and commercial uses:
a. CO2 emission factor from Local Government Operations Protocol v. 1.0, Table G.5: CO2 lbs/kWh for Turlock Irrigation District in 2006.70 b. Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emission factors from California Climate Action Registry Reporting Protocol (January 2009), Table C.2: lbs/mwh for eGRID region CAMX WECC California.
c. Population and household figures from Department of Finance and Crawford Multari & Clarke (CMCA).
d. Electricity and natural gas use numbers are multiplied by emissions factors for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) to determine GHG emissions.
e. Total metric tons CO2e determined by multiplying totals for CO2, CH4, and N2O by their respective Global Warming Potentials.
3) Commercial/industrial electricity and industrial natural gas consumption (inputs) consumption:
a. Applies Energy Information Administration (EIA) energy consumption averages for kWhs of electricity by square foot of land use from 2005 (the most recent year for which data is available). Average consists of the average of West (Table C15) and All US consumption rates (Table C15) when both available by land use, or All US consumption rates when West rates unavailable. Assumes higher accuracy results for electricity consumption from these census regions, based on a comparison of EIA residential consumption averages to ECDMS consumption averages for Stanislaus County.71

70 September 2008.
71 U.S. Energy Information Administration 2005.

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b. Applies EIA energy consumption averages for cubic feet of natural gas by square foot of land use from 2005 (the most recent year for which data is available).

Utilizes consumption for West Pacific (C29) when available and All US consumption rates for all other scenarios (C24). Assumes higher accuracy results for natural gas consumption from these census regions, based on a comparison of EIA residential consumption averages to ECDMS consumption averages for Stanislaus County.72
c. Assumes that energy consumption rates remain constant. d. For EIA averages, per EIA definitions, utilizes Retail (Other Than Mall) consumption averages for commercial floor area, Other consumption averages for industrial floor area, and Service consumption averages for services floor area. 73 e. Square footages by land use from CMCA.
f. Conversion from cubic feet natural gas into BTUs from U.S. EIA based on U.S. consumption in 2008.74
4) Vehicle miles traveled (inputs):
a. Daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) provided by TJKM. Using the City of Patterson model (based on Stanislaus Council of Governments model), Select Zone assignment was performed for all zones in Patterson to ensure that the VMT was calculated by all trips generated by traffic analysis zones in Patterson. Once the trips were assigned to the overall network, VMT was calculated for each link by multiplying the link volume with the distance. Added VMT on a link-by-link basis to determine the overall VMT.
b. Daily VMT converted into annual VMT by multiplying by 330 days. Accounts for decreased traffic on weekends and holidays.
5) Vehicle miles traveled emissions (outputs):
a. Emissions factors by vehicle class for CO2 and CH4 from countywide emissions provided by EMFAC 2007. Assumes emissions from average speed of 45 mph, since VMT is not differentiated by speed or type.
b. Emissions factors by vehicle class for N2O from the Local Government Operations Protocol (2008), average of all model years.
c. Assumes annual average temperature and humidity of Patterson: 63 degrees Fahrenheit and 60% humidity.
d. Vehicle classification and proportion of VMT per vehicle class from EMFAC 2007.

Proportion of VMT per vehicles class as follows: light-duty autos: 40.8% of VMT;

72 U.S. Energy Information Association 2005.
73 Ibid. Refer specifically to http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/building_types.html for details. 74 N.d.

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light-duty trucks: 32.0% of VMT; medium-duty trucks: 12.1% of VMT; heavy-duty trucks: 14.0% of VMT; urban buses: 0.1% of VMT; motorcycles: 1.0% of VMT. e. VMT for each vehicle class is multiplied by specific emissions factor for that vehicle class for CO2, CH4, and N2O.
f. Total metric tons CO2e determined by multiplying totals for CO2, CH4, and N2O by their respective Global Warming Potentials.
6) CalRecycle defines alternative daily cover as a mixture of approved materials other than soil used as temporary overlay on an exposed landfill face. 7) Tons of waste landfilled and ADC (inputs):
a. Only calculates emissions from disposal tons and ADC. Excludes transformed and export tons. These items to be addressed as necessary in the CAP. b. Utilizes waste totals from CalRecycle waste tonnage by origin.75 c. To determine 2009 countywide waste totals: calculates compound average growth rate (CAGR) from 2003–2008. Growth rate applied to amounts of waste disposed in 2008 to determine waste disposed in 2009.
d. Calculates waste for Patterson based on total waste originated in Stanislaus County Regional Solid Waste Planning Agency (SCRSWPA), which includes the population of the county and all jurisdictions except Modesto. Calculates a countywide per person rate of waste disposed in 2009 and applies rate to 2009 population of Patterson.
8) Waste emissions (outputs):
a. Waste type data not collected by landfill. Assumes that waste breakdown is proportional to 2008 CalRecycle Waste Characterization Study, which captures the state average of waste characterization. From Composition of California’s Overall Disposed Waste Stream by Material Type for landfill tonnage provided by CalRecycle 2008 Statewide Waste Characterization Study.76 b. Waste types are cross-referenced with input groups for EPA’s WARM model and entered into WARM groups for yearly waste emissions outputs.77 B. GENERAL PLAN EMISSIONS FORECASTS
B.1 TARGET YEARS AND REDUCTION GOALS
For legal defensibility, this document projects emissions consistent with General Plan buildout and phasing. Two target years are quantified: 2030 (buildout within 20 years) and 2050 (total at

75 CalRecycle 2010.
76 2008.
77 U.S. EPA 2009.

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buildout in 40 years). Further, these target dates allow the City to demonstrate its trajectory to achieve state reduction targets, including:
• AB 32 calls for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (15 percent below 2005 levels has been interpreted to equate to 1990 levels). • Executive Order S-3-05 outlines reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

For purposes of this document, a reduction goal of 15 percent below 2009 levels is assumed to demonstrate efforts to comply with these state mandates. Since 2009 is the most current year for which data is available in the City of Patterson, 15 percent below 2009 emissions levels is consistent with AB 32.

While General Plan buildout will lead to higher emissions in target years, the General Plan itself will act as a self-mitigating program. Policies contained within the General Plan will alter current emissions trends and will lead to lower emissions scenarios than would result if existing trends were applied to projected buildout scenarios. Furthermore, by 2050 multiple state programs will affect emissions within the Patterson city limits and cause lower levels of emissions independent of City actions. These programs will lead to emissions reductions that the City is not responsible for directly implementing, such as tailpipe emissions of passenger cars and light-duty trucks.

Based on this logic, anticipated reductions from statewide actions and General Plan policies are applied to forecast emissions scenarios to determine the City’s progress in achieving reduction goals. Progress to achieve reduction goals is demonstrated as follows:
1) Emissions forecasts were developed for each of the three General Plan planning scenarios developed for 2030 and 2050. Forecasts are developed applying businessas-usual consumption and activity patterns to growth scenarios for each of the three planning scenarios.
2) General Plan policies that are expected to reduce GHG emissions were quantified.

Statewide actions that will reduce emissions were also quantified. Collectivity these are referred to as reduction measures.
3) The quantified reductions in GHG emissions are deducted from each business-asusual planning scenario in 2030 and 2050 to determine the new anticipated emissions scenario.
4) The remaining emissions not reduced through General Plan policies or state actions are contrasted with the business-as-usual scenarios to determine a percentage reduction and progress to reduction targets.

B.2 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECASTS
Forecasts for each emissions sector were developed using General Plan buildout projections. A description of the methodology utilized for each sector is provided below. All reduction measures were developed by calculating anticipated reductions to these business-as-usual forecasts. Planning scenarios are referred to as follows: CD = Compact Development, JE = Jobs Emphasis, PC = Planning Commission Environmental Review Plan. See Table V-3 for summary tables of emission outputs by scenario in CO2e.

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TABLE V-3

EMISSIONS FORECASTS
Sector Scenario Emission
Source 2030 Input Data
2030 GHG
Emissions
(metric
tons/year
CO2e)
2050 Input Data
2050 GHG
Emissions
(metric
tons/year
CO2e)
Residential
CD
Electricity
consumption 159,984,277 kWh (1) 49,818 (2) 200,516,161 kWh (1) 62,439 (2) Natural gas
consumption 5,644,294 therms (1) 37,704 (2) 7,074,272 therms (1) 47,256 (2) Residential
JE
Electricity
consumption 165,875,600 kWh (1) 51,652 (2) 233,868,654 kWh (1) 72,825 (2) Natural gas
consumption 5,852,142 therms (1) 39,092 (2) 8,250,958 therms (1) 55,116 (2) Residential
PC
Electricity
consumption 228,969,776 kWh (1) 71,299 (2) 270,166,809 kWh (1) 84,128 (2) Natural gas
consumption 8,078,124 therms (1) 53,962 (2) 9,531,568 therms (1) 63,671 (2) Commercial/
Industrial
CD
Electricity
consumption 413,304,847 kWh (3) 128,700 (2) 477,643,009 kWh (3) 148,734 (2) Natural gas
consumption 11,887,251 therms (3) 79,407 (2) 13,737,710 therms (3) 91,768 (2) Commercial/
Industrial
JE
Electricity
consumption 488,886,631 kWh (3) 152,235 (2) 534,155,940 kWh (3) 166,332 (2) Natural gas
consumption 14,061,093 therms (3) 93,928 (2) 15,363,105 therms (3) 102,625 (2) Commercial/
Industrial
PC
Electricity
consumption 470,759,405 kWh (3) 146,591 (2) 527,685,470 kWh (3) 164,317 (2) Natural gas
consumption 13,539,728 therms (3) 90,445 (2) 15,177,005 therms (3) 101,382 (2) Transportation
CD
Annual
vehicle miles
traveled (all
vehicles and
fuel types)
817,488,870 VMT (4) 419,259 (5) 1,188,774,510 VMT (4) 598,187 (5) Transportation
JE
Annual
vehicle miles
traveled (all
vehicles and
fuel types)
1,129,454,040 VMT (4) 579,254 (5) 1,579,892,160 VMT (4) 794,996 (5) Transportation
PC
Annual
vehicle miles
traveled (all
vehicles and
fuel types)
904,684,770 VMT (4) 463,979 (5) 1,339,095,780 VMT (4) 673,828 (5) Packet Pg. 601
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Sector Scenario Emission
Source 2030 Input Data
2030 GHG
Emissions
(metric
tons/year
CO2e)
2050 Input Data
2050 GHG
Emissions
(metric
tons/year
CO2e)
Waste
CD
Waste
landfilled
and
alternative
daily cover
(ADC)
17,296 tons (6) 6,130 (7) 21,456 tons (6) 7,604 (7)
Waste
JE
Waste
landfilled
and
alternative
daily cover
(ADC)
17,845 tons (6) 6,324 (7) 24,874 tons (6) 8,816 (7)
Waste
PC
Waste
landfilled
and
alternative
daily cover
(ADC)
24,022 tons (6) 8,514 (7) 28,303 tons (6) 10,031 (7)
Total by
Scenario CD 721,017 955,988
JE 922,486 1,200,710
PC 834,790 1,097,357
1) Residential electricity and natural gas consumption (inputs):
a. Consumption data projected based on the compound average growth rate (CAGR) of households from baseline year to target year. Assumes household growth rates equate to energy consumption rates. CAGR of household growth of each planning scenario is applied to baseline consumption to determine target year consumption.
b. Assumes that growth rates remain constant.
c. Growth of households calculated from projected household figures for each scenario in the General Plan.
2) Electricity and natural gas emissions (outputs) for residential and commercial uses:
a. Assumes emissions of CO2e/kWh and therms in the baseline inventory remain constant throughout the target years.
b. Emission factor is deduced by dividing total emissions from each sector in the baseline inventory by input data from the baseline inventory (total metric tons of CO2e from electricity consumption/total kWhs; total metric tons of CO2e from natural gas consumption/total therms).

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c. Emissions factors are applied to the projected consumption data for each target year to determine emissions.
3) Commercial/industrial electricity and natural gas consumption (inputs):
a. Consumption data projected based on the compound average growth rate (CAGR) of square footages of nonresidential land uses from baseline year to target year. Assumes square footage growth rates equate to energy consumption rates. CAGR of nonresidential square footage growth for each planning scenario is applied to baseline consumption to determine target year consumption.
b. Assumes that growth rates remain constant.
c. Growth of square footages calculated from projected square footages of commercial, industrial, and services floor area for each scenario in the General Plan.
4) Transportation vehicle miles traveled (inputs):
a. Daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) provided by TJKM for each planning scenario for the target years. Using the City of Patterson model (based on Stanislaus Council of Governments model), Select Zone assignment was performed for all zones in Patterson to ensure that the VMT was calculated by all trips generated by traffic analysis zones in Patterson. Once the trips were assigned to the overall network, VMT was calculated for each link by multiplying the link volume with the distance. Added VMT on a link-by-link basis to determine the overall VMT. b. Daily VMT converted into annual VMT by multiplying by 330 days. Accounts for decreased traffic on weekends and holidays.
5) Vehicle miles traveled emissions (outputs):
a. Emissions factors by vehicle class for CO2 and CH4 from countywide emissions provided by EMFAC 2007. Assumes emissions from average speed of 45 mph, since VMT is not differentiated by speed or type. 2050 emissions factor by vehicle class calculated using the CAGR of emissions trends for CH4 and CO2 between 2009 and 2030.
b. Emissions factors by vehicle class for N2O from the Local Government Operations Protocol (2008), average of all model years.
c. Assumes annual average temperature and humidity of Patterson: 63 degrees Fahrenheit and 60% humidity.
d. Vehicle classification and proportion of VMT per vehicle class from EMFAC 2007. i. 2030 Proportion of VMT per vehicles class as follows: light-duty autos: 42.2% of VMT; light-duty trucks: 31.6% of VMT; medium-duty trucks: 11.3% of VMT; heavy-duty trucks: 13.7% of VMT; urban buses: 0.1% of VMT; motorcycles: 1.0% of VMT.

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ii. 2050 Proportion of VMT per vehicle class:

1. EMFAC 2007 used to determine VMT by vehicle class for 2009 and 2030.

CAGR of the change of VMT by vehicle class was calculated for 2009– 2030 and used to determine 2050 VMT by vehicle class.

2. 2050 Proportion of VMT per vehicles class as follows: light-duty autos: 43.5% of VMT; light-duty trucks: 31.2% of VMT; medium-duty trucks: 10.6% of VMT; heavy-duty trucks: 13.4% of VMT; urban buses: 0.2% of VMT; motorcycles:

1.0% of VMT.
e. VMT for each vehicle class is multiplied by specific emissions factor for that vehicle class for CO2, CH4, and N2O.
f. Total metric tons CO2e determined by multiplying totals for CO2, CH4, and N2O by their respective Global Warming Potentials.
g. For reduction measures, assumes a static average emission factor of CO2e per vehicle mile reduced based on 2009 baseline data: 2009 total CO2e emissions from transportation/total VMT in 2009.
6) Waste tons landfilled (inputs):
a. Waste data projected based on the compound average growth rate (CAGR) of population from baseline year to target year. Assumes population growth rates equate to energy consumption rates. CAGR of population growth of each planning scenario is applied to baseline waste generation and ADC to determine target year totals.
b. Assumes that growth rates remain constant.
c. Growth of populations calculated from projected household figures for each scenario in the General Plan.
7) Waste emissions (outputs):
a. Waste type data not collected by landfill. Assumes that waste breakdown is proportional to 2008 CalRecycle Waste Characterization Study, which captures the state average of waste characterization. From Composition of California’s Overall Disposed Waste Stream by Material Type for landfill tonnage provided by CalRecycle 2008 Statewide Waste Characterization Study.78 b. Waste types are cross-referenced with input groups for EPA’s WARM model79 and entered into WARM groups for yearly waste emissions outputs. c. Assumes emissions of CO2e/ton of waste in the baseline inventory remains constant throughout the target years.

78 2008.
79 US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009
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d. Emissions factors are applied to the projected consumption data for each target year to determine emissions.

In summary, the total emissions outputs for all sectors of the three planning scenarios are provided in Table V-4 below.

TABLE V-4

SCENARIO COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
GHG
Business-asUsual Forecast

CD JE PC
2030
Forecast
2050
Forecast
2030
Forecast
2050
Forecast
2030
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Residential
Electricity 49,818 62,439 51,652 72,825 71,299 84,128
Residential
Natural Gas 37,704 47,256 39,092 55,116 53,962 63,671
Commercial/
Industrial
Electricity
128,700 148,734 152,235 166,332 146,591 164,317
Commercial/
Industrial
Natural Gas
79,407 91,768 93,928 102,625 90,445 101,382
Transportation 419,259 598,187 579,254 794,996 463,979 673,828 Waste 6,130 7,604 6,324 8,816 8,514 10,031
Subtotal Energy
Emissions 295,628 350,197 336,908 396,898 362,297 413,498 Total 721,017 955,988 922,486 1,200,710 834,790 1,097,357 Comparing these business-as-usual emissions projections with state emissions reduction goals yields the targets for emissions reductions. The difference between the emissions target and the forecast business-as-usual emissions represents the emissions the City is trying to eliminate. Targets for each scenario are shown below.

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TABLE V-5

COMPACT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL EMISSIONS GROWTH AND STATE REDUCTION TARGETS 2020 BAU
151.22%
Increase
2030 BAU
233.09%
Increase
2030
Reduction
Target
15%Decrease
2050
Reduction
Target

41.7%
Decrease
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2009 2030 2050
2009
TABLE V-6

JOBS EMPHASIS SCENARIO

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL EMISSIONS GROWTH AND STATE REDUCTION TARGETS 2020 BAU
221.42%
Increase
2030 BAU
318.36%
Increase
2030Reductio
n
Target
15%Decrease
2050Reductio
n Target

41.7%
Decrease
0 200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
123
2009
baseline
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TABLE V-7

PLANNING COMMISSION ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW SCENARIO

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL EMISSIONS GROWTH AND STATE REDUCTION TARGETS 2020 BAU
190.86%
Increase
2030 BAU
282.35%
Increase
2030
Reduction
Target
15%Decrease
2050
Reduction
Target

41.7%
Decrease
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2009 2030 2050
2009
baseline
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B.3 REDUCTION MEASURES
Reduction measures are categorized into five groups, as shown in Table V-8 below: Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production; Land Use; Transportation; Waste; and State Reductions. The impact each reduction measure has on business-as-usual projections is depicted. When a reduction measure consists of a General Plan policy, the policy number is cited. A number of General Plan policies are expected to reduce emissions from the same source. In order to avoid double-counting and redundancy issues in this analysis, many similar policies were grouped and quantified as a single emissions reduction measure (e.g., policies related to mixed-use and higher-density developments were quantified as a single reduction measure). In these instances, footnotes identify which similar General Plan policies are included in the quantification.

TABLE V-8

SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS REDUCTION MEASURES

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Draft General Plan Policies
A Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production (1)
1 CD-1.8 -23,326 -57,361 -27,949 -73,492 -19,787 -65,456 2 AR-7.6 -88 -110 -91 -128 -71 -148
3 AR-7.8 -13,975 -50,259 -15,913 -56,776 -16,342 -59,340 4 NR-14 -1,928 -4,561 -2,202 -5,166 -2,353 -5,366
5 AR-7.5 -145 -194 -182 -222 -173 -219
6 NR-1.10 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2
Total -39,461 -112,487 -46,338 -135,785 -38,728 -130,530 B Land Use (2)
7 AQ-1.12 -2,984 -5,319 -4,946 -7,779 -3,532 -6,265
8 T-3.3 -23,470 -44,123 -24,334 -51,462 -33,590 -59,450 9 CD-1.1 -13,886 -22,417 -20,264 -31,554 -17,570 -27,506 10 ED-3.1 -37,127 -51,760 -48,987 -67,587 -36,053 -51,197 Total -77,466 -123,620 -98,532 -158,383 -90,745 -144,417 C Transportation
11 T-7.9 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4
12 T-7.1 -11,950 -26,742 -17,575 -47,767 -25,511 -52,417 13 T-7.6 -909 -1,367 -1,310 -1,857 -1,043 -1,573
14 T-7.2 -8,702 -15,514 -14,426 -22,690 -10,302 -18,272 15 T-1.12 -6,428 -31,157 -8,881 -41,409 -7,113 -35,097
16 T-15 -5,142 -7,478 -7,105 -9,938 -5,691 -8,423
Total -33,134 -82,261 -49,298 -123,664 -49,663 -115,787 Packet Pg. 608
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CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
4 Waste (3)
17 PS-4.1 -3,183 -6,873 -3,284 -7,968 -4,421 -9,066
Total -3,183 -6,873 -3,284 -7,968 -4,421 -9,066
Total Local Reductions -153,244 -325,241 -197,452 -425,800 -183,557 -399,801 State Programs
Renewable Portfolio
Standard -33,920 -48,066 -36,452 -102,756 -44,193 -138,584 Pavley (AB 1493) -121,331 -175,876 -162,556 -228,853 -127,010 -190,233 Low Carbon Fuel Standard -10,920 -35,175 -14,630 -32,511 -11,431 -25,402 Total State Reductions -166,171 -259,117 -213,638 -364,120 -182,634 -354,219 Total Reductions (Local + State) -319,415 -584,358 -411,090 -789,920 -366,191 -754,020 Projected Business-As-Usual
Emissions 721,017 955,988 922,486 1,200,710 834,790 1,097,357 Net Emissions (Projected -
Reductions) 401,602 371,631 511,397 410,791 468,599 343,337 Percentage Change from
General Plan Growth Projection -44.30% -61.13% -44.56% -65.79% -43.87% -68.71% Percentage Change from 2009
Levels 39.93% 29.49% 78.18% 43.13% 63.27% 19.63%
Notes:

1. Also refer to General Plan Policies NR-6.1, NR-8, NR-12, AQ-1.14, PS-1.6, PS-1.11, and PS-2.5

2. Also refer to General Plan Policies T-3.1, LU-1.1, LU-2.3, and NR-4.3

3. Also refer to General Plan Policy PS-4.9
As shown in Table V-8, these strategies will result in a significant reduction from business-as-usual emissions growth for each planning scenario. State reductions account for an almost equal portion of the reductions within Patterson and will be achieved through the Renewable Portfolio Standard, AB 1493 (Pavley), and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a realistic estimate of Patterson’s reduction potential given the significant amount of expected growth in the city. By 2030, reduction measures will have reversed General Plan business-as-usual forecasts by 44.3 percent for the Compact Development scenario, 44.56 percent for the Jobs Emphasis scenario, and 43.87 percent for the Planning Commission scenario. These are significant reductions, yet none of the scenarios is able to achieve reduction targets of 15 percent below 2009 levels by 2030 or 41.7 percent below 2009 levels by 2050. Nonetheless, the forecast emissions reduction measures demonstrate significant effort at attaining the reduction targets. Contextually, the level of anticipated growth in Patterson makes the reduction results appropriate and consistent with the direction of state climate change legislation.

Adoption of a Climate Action Plan, planned for within 24 months of General Plan adoption, will provide the City with the opportunity to pick up where reduction measures leave off and close the gap between emissions forecasts and reduction targets. Until that time, these reduction Packet Pg. 609
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measures demonstrate that the City is working to achieve reduction targets and mitigate its impact on climate change.

Descriptions of each reduction measure follow.

A.1. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: CD-1.8 General Plan Policy
CD-1.8 Green building practices. The City supports the use of green building practices in the planning, design, construction, management, renovation, operations, and demolition of all private buildings and projects, including:
• Land planning and design techniques that preserve the natural environment and minimize disturbance of the land.
• Site development to reduce erosion, minimize paved surfaces and runoff, and protect vegetation, especially trees.
• Water conservation indoors and outdoors.
• Energy efficiency in heating/cooling systems, appliances, lighting and the building envelope.
• Selection of materials based on recyclability, durability and the amount of energy used to create the material.
• Waste reduction, reuse and recycling during construction and throughout the life of the project.
• Other new aspects of green design and construction included in LEED or other certification programs.
• Control nighttime lighting to lower energy use, reduce glare, and prevent illumination of the night sky.

Also refer to General Plan Policies NR-6.1 and NR-8.

Methodology
• Assumes implementation of a green building ordinance that requires development to surpass California Title 24 energy standards by 15 percent, as amended, and quantifies reduced energy consumption that will result. • Assumes that 50 percent of development between 2009 and 2030 will occur after adoption of this ordinance.
• Assumes percentage reductions in energy use from 2008 Title 24 Energy Efficiency Improvements in comparison to 2005 baseline efficiency. • For 2030 reductions, assumes Tier 1 reductions for all new development.

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− Residential electricity 36.80 percent reduction
− Residential natural gas 24.82 percent reduction
− Nonresidential electricity 19.90 percent reduction
− Nonresidential natural gas 24.40 percent reduction
• Assumes Tier 2 for commercial development 2030–2050.
− Electricity 34.90 percent reduction
− Natural gas 39.40 percent reduction
• Assumes Zero Net Energy for residential development 2030–2050. • Assumes all growth in natural gas and electricity sectors is from new construction.

Base Data
• Electricity and natural gas consumption for new commercial and residential development
− For 2030, assume for each sector = 2030 consumption – 2009 consumption − For 2050, assume for each sector = 2050 consumption – 2009 consumption EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-23,325.58 -57,361.38 -27,948.82 -73,491.84 -19,787.29 -65,455.72 A.2. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: AR-7.6 General Plan Policy
AQ-1.14 Public education. The City shall work to improve the public’s understanding of the land use, transportation, and air quality link.

Also refer to General Plan Policy AQ-1.14.

Methodology
• Assumes public education leads to lowered energy consumption rates. • Based on empirical data from a public education campaign designed to reduce emissions of criteria air pollutants in the Sacramento region (the Spare the Air program). This is one of the few public outreach campaigns that conducted an analysis of the effectiveness of the program as it relates to emission reduction.

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are used for market penetration. The analysis confirmed that approximately 1 percent of people changed their behavior (i.e., took fewer vehicle trips on Spare the Air days) as a result of the Spare the Air campaign.80 • For the City’s public education campaign, it was assumed that approximately 1 percent of people would reduce their emissions from electricity and natural gas by 10 percent.

Base Data
• Electricity and natural gas consumption for all residential development (new and existing) in the target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-87.52 -109.70 -90.74 -127.94 -71.30 -147.80
A.3. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: AR-7.8 General Plan Policy
AR-7.8 Financing for energy-efficient improvements. The City shall investigate options for providing low-interest financing for energy efficient improvements and solar system installation for residents. Such financing could take the form of long-term assessments on individual property tax bills.

Methodology
• Assumes reduction in energy consumption that will result from creation of a finance mechanism such as a Property Assessed Clean Energy bond to finance energy efficiency improvements (e.g., AB 811 type program).
• Reductions in kWh from renewable energy facilities: Calculation takes 15 percent of kWh energy use for new and existing residential and commercial development, as depicted in the kWh used in 2030, phased in with only 8 percent applied in 2030. The estimate of photovoltaics installed is restricted to installations on existing homes by 2030 and all commercial properties, both those existing by 2030 and those that will be constructed after 2030. It excludes renewable installations to power new developments that come as a result of green building efforts and the State’s Zero Net Energy Homes effort in the Green Building measure (represented by the difference of projected kWh between 2030 and 2050).
• Therms for residential uses: Reductions for greater efficiencies in water heaters are applied only to new residential development in 2030, including therms for water heating in existing development and excluding reductions resulting from the State’s

80 SMAQMD 2009.

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Zero Net Energy Homes effort that will result by 2050 (accounted for in the Green Building measure). It accounts for all possible savings that would be generated by more efficient water heaters.
• Assumes a 15 percent market penetration of renewable energy facilities and water heaters in the target years phased in with only 8 percent penetration achieved by 2030 and that this penetration rate will apply to new and existing development in 2030 (excluding reductions that will be attributed to green building efforts and the State’s Zero Net Energy Homes effort (represented by new kWhs in 2030)). • Assumes that 44 percent of residential natural gas is used for water heating81 and that this rate will remain constant.
• Assumes that there is 19.5 percent in natural gas savings for improved efficiency water heaters (the average of tankless and efficient gas storage models according to Energystar.gov savings and benefits Web pages) and that this will remain constant. • Assumes that conversion to more efficient water heaters is merely an issue of turnover and easy for property owners to finance because of minimal price differences and existing subsidies. The reductions for more efficient water heaters are assumed to be achieved in all new development in 2030.82 This measure excludes all therm use attributed to new residential development between 2030 and 2050, which is captured under Policy CD-1.8 and which takes credit for the State’s Zero Net Energy Homes effort.

Base Data
• Natural gas consumption for all new residential development in 2030 • Total electricity consumption for residential and nonresidential uses in 2030 • Electricity consumption for commercial uses in 2050
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-13,974.60 -50,259.34 -15,913.09 -56,775.98 -16,341.76 -59,339.59 A.4. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: NR-14 General Plan Policy
NR-14. The City will consider amendments to the Zoning Regulations and relevant building codes and providing training for City staff regarding the incorporation of features which will reduce heat gain in new construction. Such revisions may include:

81 CPUC, 2008
82 Fuller et al. 2009.

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• Allowances for the construction of “green” roofs;
• Standards for surface shading of paved areas such as parking lots; • Standards for the use of paving materials with an enhanced solar reflective index (SRI);
• Standards that provide for pervious pavement options.

Methodology
• Quantifies reduced electricity consumption that results from combating the urban heat island effect.
• Assumes a combination of the following strategies will be utilized for 50 percent of the landscape (including roads, sidewalks, courtyards, and parking lots): Shade (within 5 years of occupancy); paving materials with a solar reflective index (SRI) of at least 29; open grid pavement system.
• The urban area is assumed to be approximately 40 percent pavement. Assumes total of 30 percent of all existing pavement will be replaced with high albedo content, as supported by the literature.83
• Pavement has a potential for a .15 increase in albedo. 0.40 * 0.30 * 0.15 = net change of 0.018 by 2030. Assumes half will be achieved by 2020, or .009. Assumes a 10K84 decrease in temperature for a 0.25 increase in albedo.85 • Electricity demand in cities increases by 2–4 percent for each 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature.86 Assumes 3 percent increase for each 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature; conversely, this quantification assumes that for each degree change in temperature, there will be a 3 percent change in electricity use.

Base Data
• Total electricity consumption for residential and commercial uses REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-1,927.99 -4,561.35 -2,201.99 -5,165.79 -2,353.21 -5,366.41

83 EPA n.d.; Rosenfield 2008.
84 K is a unit of measurement to measure the total amount of incoming and reflecting solar radiation, otherwise known as insolation.
85 Akbari 2001.
86 Ibid.

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A.5. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: AR-7.5 General Plan Policy
AR-7.5 Passive solar heating. To the extent feasible, the City shall require the orientation of buildings to maximize passive solar heating during cool seasons, avoid solar heat gain in warm seasons, enhance natural ventilation and effective use of daylight, and to maximize opportunities for the installation of solar panels.

Methodology
• Quantifies the impact of improved orientation and solar shading requirements on electricity consumption.
• Planting shade trees within 40 feet of the south side or within 60 feet of the west side of properties can reduce summertime energy consumption associated with air conditioning by approximately 30 percent.87
− If trees are planted strategically to shade east and west walls of residential buildings, they would reduce air conditioning energy use by 6,408 GWh, equivalent to an average annual CO2 equivalent emission reduction of 1.8 metric tons.
− If 50,000,000 trees would reduce energy use by 6,408 GWh (6,408,000,000 kWh), then 1 tree reduces energy use by 128.16 kWh per year.
• Assumes that the following trees would reach maturity in 5 to 10 years: Approximately 3 percent of existing residential properties in Patterson would receive an additional tree by 2030 (assumed to equal the same percentage of existing dwelling units in 2009) and 10 percent of new residential properties by 2050, and that 1 new tree would be planted for every 5,000 square feet of nonresidential use for each target year.

Base Data
• Total electricity consumption for residential and commercial uses for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-144.61 -193.54 -182.37 -221.77 -173.32 -218.54

87 USDA 2009.

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A.6. Energy Efficiency, Conservation, and Production: NR-1.10 General Plan Policy
NR-1.10 Water conservation. The City shall promote the efficient use of water.

Also refer to General Plan Policies PS-1.6, PS-1.11, and PS-2.5.

Methodology
• Calculates the energy savings that result from reduced indoor water use. • Assumes implementation of actions such as the following related General Plan policies:
− PS-1.6 Reclaimed water. The City shall require the use of reclaimed water by industrial, commercial, recreational, agricultural and roadway landscaping uses. − PS-1.11 New development conservation measures. The City shall require all new development to use best available technologies for water conservation including, but not limited to, water-conserving toilets, showerheads, faucets, and irrigation systems.
− PS-2.5 Reuse of treated water. The City shall research viable options for the reuse of treated wastewater, in conjunction with industrial, commercial, agricultural, recreational, and public landscaping uses.
• Assumes a 20 percent reduction in indoor water use by 2030 and a 25 percent reduction by 2050. Conservative assumption, based on SBx7-7, signed into law in November 2009, which aims to reduce urban use 20 percent statewide by 2020. • Assumes the Northern California average of energy used per gallon of indoor water consumed is .0054 kWh.88 Consumption rate is assumed to remain constant. • To determine the amount of water consumed in the city, assumes the indoor per capita water average of 69.3 gallons.89 Assumed to remain constant in the businessas-usual projections.

Base Data
• Population projections

88 California Energy Commission 2006.
89 American Water Works Association 2009.

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REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-1.08 -1.68 -1.11 -1.94 -1.50 -2.21
B.7. Land Use: AQ-1.12
General Plan Policy
AQ-1.12 Affordable housing access to alternate mode of travel. The City shall work with the Housing Authority, transit providers, and developers to encourage the construction of low income housing developments that use transit-oriented and pedestrian-oriented design principles.

Methodology
• URBEMIS provides a 4 percent reduction in vehicle trips for each deed-restricted below market rate (BMR) unit. Thus, the total reduction is as follows: Trip reduction = % units that are BMR * 0.04.
• The Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) Plan determined that 23 percent of the construction need in the county is classified as very low-income households and an additional 16 percent shows a need for low income. Assumes conservatively that by 2030 the RHNA will be met and 30 percent of households in Patterson will be affordable to very low- and low-income households. Assumes this percentage remains constant until 2050.
• Assumes reductions observed for BMR units equal reductions that will be achieved through very low- and low-income units.
• Assumes that all new traffic is caused by new business growth and new housing growth equally.

Base Data
• All new VMT that exceeds baseline activity
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
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B.8. Land Use: T-3.3
General Plan Policy
T-3.3 Rideshare coordination. The City shall organize a voluntary ride-share coordination system for commuters.

Also refer to General Plan Policy T-3.1.

Methodology
• Quantifies reduced VMT that will result from a ride-share program. • Estimated number of vehicles in Patterson calculated by assuming that the number of cars per household is constant with the countywide car per household figure. Car population derived from EMFAC 2007, which uses historical DMV registration data. 356,872 cars in 2009/177,545 households = 2.01 cars per household, which is in line with the national average. Rate assumed to remain constant. • The San Luis Obispo City Trip Reduction Incentive Program (TRIP) is used as a case study for estimated emission reductions associated with similar programs. SLO City TRIP in cooperation with SLO County Rideshare: Case Study – In August 2009, there were 69 individuals enrolled in the City’s incentive program (which includes rewards and guaranteed rides home for commuters). Cumulatively they eliminated 9,235.2 one-way trips and 122,675.3 VMT, or 133.84 trips and 1,777.903 VMT reduced annually per person. Total employment at the City of SLO was approximately 350 in 2008; therefore total participation was approximately 20 percent.90 • Assumes 30 percent participation rate achieved by 2050, with 20 percent participation rate phased in by 2030.
• According to General Plan background report (2007), in 2000 36 percent of persons employed outside the home traveled more than 45 minutes to their place of work.

Assumes conservative daily one-way work commute on average of 15 miles for those who will participate in ride-share. Assumes 49 work weeks a year, accounting for holidays. Equals yearly commute of 14,700 miles per rideshare participant.

Base Data
• All new VMT that exceeds baseline activity
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-23,469.55 -44,123.31 -24,333.80 -51,462.49 -33,589.66 -59,449.85

90 Rideshare Lucky Bucks statistical data provided by Cindy Blake, Rideshare Administrative Assistant, on November 3, 2009.

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B.9 Land Use: CD-1.1
General Plan Policy
CD-1.1 Smart Growth principles. The City will continue to require new development to incorporate the principles of ‘Smart Growth,’ including:
• A mix of housing products and densities serving the broadest range of households, incomes, and ages;
• A neighborhood center containing higher density residential development, retail, restaurants, entertainment, office, and public uses within a short walk or bicycle ride of surrounding residences;
• Parks, schools, and other public/quasi-public uses within a short walk or bicycle ride; • A complete and interconnected system of mobility consisting of roadways, bicycle and pedestrian paths, and transit stops;
• Short blocks with a substantial tree canopy shading the street and sidewalk; • Connectivity to surrounding neighborhoods, regional retail centers and employment; • A sense of personal safety;
• Elements that foster the sustainable use of scarce or non-renewable resources Also refer to General Plan Policies LU-1.1, LU-2.3, and NR-4.3.

Methodology
• Assumes reduced VMT triggered by the elasticity of travel associated with the increased mixture of uses. The literature supports a 5 percent reduction in vehicle miles traveled for every 100 percent increase in density and increase in convenience.

To calculate the net increase in density in the city between 2005 and the target years, the following variables were needed.
− Density calculated as population and jobs for each target year. − Assumes that a 5 percent reduction in VMT would result from each 100 percent increase in density.91 Accordingly, 0.05 was taken of each target year’s percentage increase in density. The resulting number was the percentage reduction in VMT for the target year.
− Similarly, the literature supports a 5 percent reduction for increasing the density of jobs-housing balance and convenience of shopping and services. Relying upon the percentage of travel attributed to shopping and commuting from national averages (14 percent shopping and 18 percent commuting), it was assumed that shopping and commuting related trips would be reduced by 5 percent.

91 Ewing, Reid, et al. 2001.

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Base Data
• Annual VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-13,885.51 -22,417.24 -20,264.49 -31,553.63 -17,569.54 -27,505.99 B.10 Land Use: ED-3.1
General Plan Policy
ED-3.1 Jobs-to-housing ratio. The City shall maintain an adequate retail, business, and industrial land supply to meet a jobs-to-housing ratio of 1.0.

Methodology
• Gives credit for reduced VMT that results from increased jobs-housing balance. • Assumes VMT Reduction = (1-(ABS(1.5*h-e)/(1.5*h+e))-0.25)/0.25*0.03) where h = study area housing units, e = study area employment.92 Also assumes an asymptote of 9 percent reduction and an ideal 1.5 jobs per household. Note: These point reductions were taken from URBEMIS 2007 9.2.458 data according to sample jobs-to-housing ratio.

Base Data
• Total VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-37,126.90 -51,760.21 -48,987.45 -67,587.16 -36,053.47 -51,196.83 C.11 Transportation: Safe Routes to School
General Plan Policy
T-7.9 Coordination with schools. The City will collaborate with the School District to promote bike use and will actively pursue Safe Route to School grants to fund programs that facilitate safe bike routes.

92 SJVAPCD 2009; ONL 2004; California Air Pollution Control Officer’s Association 2008.

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Methodology
• Quantifies reduced VMT that will result from improved alternative transportation programs for school-age children.
• As of 2000 census, there were 3,164 school-age children in Patterson. Assumes number will remain constant until 2009. Assumes number of school-age children increases evenly with population growth. Number of school-age children includes children ages 5–17 in the city.
• According to the Victoria Town Planning Institute, there are currently few detailed studies of the effectiveness of School Transport Management programs, but anecdotal evidence indicates that total reductions in automobile trips of 10–20 percent or more are possible at a particular school under programs such as a walking school bus.93 Assumes a 15 percent reduction in automobile trips • Assumes average round-trip drop-off distance for parents is 5 miles and that 80 percent of trips are single-child drop-offs.

Base Data
• Total VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-2.17 -2.70 -2.24 -3.13 -3.02 -3.56
C.12 Transportation: T-7.1
General Plan Policy
T-7.1 Safe pedestrian and bike pathways. The City shall create and maintain a safe and convenient system of pedestrian and bicycle pathways that encourages walking and bicycling as an alternative to driving. New development shall be required to pay its share of the costs for development of this pathway system.

Methodology
• Quantifies reduced VMT that will result from provision of bike lanes. • Each mile of bikeway per 100,000 residents increases bicycle commuting 0.075 percent, all else being equal.94 Calculates the increase in bicycle commuting through the cumulative amount of bike lanes — both new lanes planned for construction and those already existing.

93 Victoria Town Planning Institute 2008.
94 Nelson and Allen 1997.

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• Assumes that 1 percent of trips are performed by bikes per national average. • Assumes constant level of service of bike lanes is provided, at a ratio of 1.73 miles bike lanes installed per 1,000 residents, and 21.12 miles of existing bike lanes in 2009.95 Base Data
• Total VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-909.06 -1,366.98 -1,309.69 -1,856.99 -1,043.03 -1,573.46 C.13 Transportation: T-7.6
General Plan Policy
T-7.6 Bike storage. The City shall require the inclusion of bicycle parking facilities at all new major public facilities and commercial and employment sites and will encourage large employers to provide showers for employees.

Methodology
• Calculates reduced VMT that will result from enhanced bicycle support facilities. • Assumes bike facilities will be required at all new nonresidential uses. • According to the CAPCOA/the SJVAPCD Plan, provision of short- and long-term bike parking at the rate of 1:20 vehicle spaces supports a 0.625 percent reduction in emissions.96 Assumes implementation of this development standard as a result of General Plan adoption.
• According to the National Household Travel Survey, average annual VMT per household is 21,187 and the “to or from work” subcategory is 5,724 (27.0 percent).

Shopping is 3,062 (14.5 percent), Other Family and Personal Business is 3,956 (18.7 percent), and Social and Recreational driving is 5,186 (24.5 percent).97 Therefore, VMT attributed to commercial businesses is 27% + 14.5% = 41.5%. • Assumes that percentage of VMT attributable to new commercial development equals the percentage of all jobs that are new applied to VMT of commercial development.

95 Per CMCA guidance.
96 CAPCOA 2009.
97 2001.

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• Assumes that emissions reductions for commercial bicycle parking are attributed equally to short- and long-term bicycle parking spaces.

Base Data
• Total VMT for each scenario
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-909.06 -1,366.98 -1,309.69 -1,856.99 -1,043.03 -1,573.46 C.14 Transportation: T-7.2
General Plan Policy
T-7.2 Pedestrian access. All new development will be reviewed to ensure safe pedestrian access is provided from the street, within parking areas and between development and surrounding neighborhoods.

Methodology
• Quantifies reductions in VMT that result from enhanced pedestrian facilities. • Assumes a 3.5 percent reduction in VMT for connectivity to transit, measures which relegate parking to the rear of structures, providing shaded pedestrian pathways between transit facilities and building entrances, and minimizing barriers to pedestrian access of neighboring facilities and sites.98 • Assumes that all development will include the removal of physical barriers between residential and nonresidential uses that impede bicycle or pedestrian circulation.

Base Data
• VMT from new development = VMT in the target year – VMT in 2009 baseline REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-8,702.35 -15,514.26 -14,425.92 -22,690.02 -10,302.11 -18,272.18

98 CAPCOA 2008.

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C.15 Transportation: T-1.12
General Plan Policy
T-1.12 Traffic calming. Traffic calming techniques, including roundabouts, traffic circles, “chokers” and chicanes, shall be considered as an alternative to traditional intersection controls.

Methodology
• Quantifies reduction in VMT caused by traffic calming. • Assumes that a comprehensive menu of traffic calming measures shall be installed to utilize the full elasticity of vehicle travel.
• The penetration of traffic calming measures is phased in, assuming that installation of such devices will impact 15 percent of VMT in 2030 and 25 percent of VMT in 2050. • Assumes that total VMT reductions from this action will be 10 percent by 2030 and 20 percent by 2050, based on conservative reductions from other case studies.99 Base Data
• Total VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-6,427.85 -31,157.48 -8,880.81 -41,408.57 -7,113.47 -35,097.36 C.16 Transportation: T-15
General Plan Policy
T-15. The City will conduct a study to determine the costs and benefits of metered parking in Downtown. More expensive parking will motivate people to take alternative transportation, or at the very least, motivate people to limit the number of trips that require paid parking.

Methodology
• Takes credit for reduced VMT that will result from paid parking measures. • Cost-based parking pricing (i.e., prices set to recover the full cost of parking facilities) typically reduces parking demand 10–30 percent compared with unpriced

99 Victoria Town Planning Institute 2008.

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parking.100 Reduction of 10 percent applied to local road trips to and from the downtown area, which were assumed to be a quarter of all local transportation. • Assumes establishment of paid parking that penetrates local VMT. • Assumes 48 percent of VMT takes place on local roads and is impacted.

Base Data
• Total VMT for each target year
REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-5,142.28 -7,477.79 -7,104.65 -9,938.06 -5,690.77 -8,423.37 D.17 Waste: PS-4.1
General Plan Policy
PS-4.1 Reduction goals. The City shall study and actively pursue methods of solid waste recycling and reuse, including source separation, with the goal of reducing its solid waste generation by 25 percent by the year 2015 and 50 percent by the year 2020.

Also refer to General Plan Policy PS-4.9.

Methodology
• Calculates reduced waste emissions that will result from a smaller waste stream. • Stanislaus County Regional Solid Waste Planning Agency’s diversion rate was 61 percent in 2006. Assumed to remain constant.101 Assumes a 50 percent diversion rate by 2030 and a 70 percent rate by 2050.
• Current composting methods are understood to produce greenhouse gas emissions; however commercial composting methods are expected to improve to negate these emissions by 2030 and 2050.

Base Data
• Total waste tons for each target year

100 Shoup 2005.
101 CalRecycle 2010b.

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REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
-3,182.85 -6,873.07 -3,283.85 -7,968.15 -4,420.64 -9,066.45 D.1 State Reductions: Pavley
Description
Assembly Bill 1493 (Pavley), signed into law in 2002, will require carmakers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new passenger cars and light trucks beginning in 2011. The California Air Resources Board adopted regulations in September 2004 that create two phases of increasingly stringent standards for car manufacturers between 2009 and 2020. It is expected that new vehicles sold in California will create an average of 16 percent less greenhouse gas emissions than current models.

Methodology
• Quantifies reductions in emissions from VMT that will result from Pavley. • Pavley rules establish GHG emission standards for two different groups of passenger vehicles: (1) passenger cars (PC) and light-duty trucks with test weights under 3,751 pounds loaded vehicle weight (LDT1); and (2) light-duty trucks with test weights between 3,751 pounds loaded vehicle weight and 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW) (LDT2). Medium-duty passenger vehicles (LDT3) between 8,500 and 10,000 pounds. GVW are included with manufacturers’ LDT2 vehicles when determining compliance with California’s GHG standards. For the purposes of this analysis, only vehicles up through 8,500 pounds were considered since the majority of LDT3 vehicles are commercial and therefore do not fall under the scope of the Pavley rules. • The GHG emission standards established by the Pavley regulation reflect not only exhaust CO2 emissions resulting directly from operation of the vehicle, but also (1) tailpipe emissions of CH4 and N2O; (2) CO2 emissions resulting from operating the air conditioning system (indirect AC emissions); and (3) hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant emissions released from the air conditioning system due to leakage, losses during recharging, sudden releases due to accidents, or release from scrappage of the vehicle at end of life (direct AC emissions). Analysis only accounts for CO2 from tailpipe emissions. Air conditioning is not included in EMFAC estimates of CO2e and methane and therefore is not accounted for in the reductions. • EMFAC used to determine percentage of VMT by model year and percentage of VMT attributed to Pavley-applicable cars. For 2050 figures, utilized the compound average growth rate (CAGR) of trends for each data set from 2009 to 2030.

Base Data
• Total emissions of CO2e from the transportation sector remaining after General Plan policy reductions
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REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)
Vehicle
Model Year CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Pre-2010 28,734 0 39,867.66 – 31,176.48 0
2010 3,332 4,810 4,622.47 6,258.87 3,614.76 5,203
2011 3,601 5,195 4,996.09 6,759.24 3,906.94 5,619
2012 3,975 5,729 5,515.70 7,454.56 4,313.27 6,197
2013 4,775 6,881 6,625.73 8,953.34 5,181.31 7,442
2014 5,703 8,217 7,913.21 10,691.49 6,188.12 8,887
2015 6,581 9,478 9,130.95 12,333.25 7,140.40 10,252
2016 7,231 10,413 10,033.49 13,549.28 7,846.18 11,263
2017 7,812 11,250 10,839.04 14,638.31 8,476.12 12,168
2018 8,268 11,909 11,471.82 15,496.44 8,970.96 12,881
2019 8,824 12,712 12,242.55 16,541.24 9,573.66 13,750
2020–2030 175,958 253,458 244,140.94 329,803.42 190,918.04 274,147 Total 264,794 340,050 367,399.64 442,479.44 287,306.25 367,809 D.2 State Reductions: Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Description
To reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels, CARB is developing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which would reduce the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by at least 10 percent by 2020 as called for by Governor Schwarzenegger in Executive Order S-01-07. LCFS will incorporate compliance mechanisms that provide flexibility to fuel providers in how they meet the requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A 10 percent reduction in the intensity of transportation fuels is expected to equate to a reduction of 16.5 million metric tons CO2e in 2020. However, in order to account for possible overlap of benefits between LCFS and the Pavley greenhouse gas standards, CARB has discounted the contribution of LCFS to 15 million metric tons CO2e. Therefore, LCFS will be responsible for a 9 percent reduction in global warming intensity (GWI) by 2020.

Methodology
• Assumes a 9 percent reduction in global warming intensity (GWI) by 2020. Assumes a 20 percent reduction in GWI by 2030.

Base Data
• Total reductions calculated for Pavley
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REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
LCFS Reduction Target 9.00% 20.00% 9.00% 20.00% 9.00% 20.00% GHG Reduction 10,920 35,175 14,630 32,511 11,431 25,402 D.3 State Reductions: Renewable Portfolio Standard
Description
Established in 2002 in Senate Bill 1078, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program requires electricity providers to increase the portion of energy that comes from renewable sources to 20 percent by 2010 and to 33 percent by 2020. Per the trend of Executive Order S-14-08, this renewable energy goal is assumed to increase to 50 percent by 2030.

Methodology
• Takes credit for reduced electricity emissions that will result from energy production mandated under the RPS.
• Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) had 13.6 percent renewable mix in 2008.102 • Assumes that the state will reach 50 percent renewable by 2050 as identified in the State’s Strategic Energy Plan, phased in with 30 percent achievement by 2030.103 Base Data
• Total energy consumption remaining after General Plan policy reductions REDUCTIONS (METRIC TONS CO2E)

CD JE PC
CD 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
RPS Target 30.00% 50.00% 30.00% 50.00% 30.00% 50.00%
Reduction in Electricity
Emissions 33,920 48,066 36,452 102,756 44,193 138,584

102 CPUC, 2009
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While the impact of General Plan policies and state actions are significant and reduce the City’s impacts on climate change, under each of the three planning scenarios, these actions fail to achieve the City’s ultimate reduction targets that would comply with state guidance. The City’s reduction targets and actual reduction achievements are compared below for each scenario.

TABLE VI-9

COMPARISON OF FUTURE GHG SCENARIOS WITH REDUCTION TARGETS Scenario Reductions*
2009 2030 2050
Baseline Business
as Usual
With CAP
& State
Business
as Usual
With CAP
& State
Reduction Targets
(as a Percentage Reduction of Baseline Emissions) -15% -42% CD
Total Emissions 287,004 721,017 401,602 955,988 371,631 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 151.22% 39.93% 233.09% 29.49% Actual Percentage Reduction from
Business-as-Usual Forecast 55% 44%
JE
Total Emissions 287,004 922,486 511,397 1,200,710 410,791 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 221.42% 78.18% 318.36% 43.13% Actual Percentage Reduction from
Business-as-Usual Forecast 93% 58%
PC
Total Emissions 287,004 834,790 468,599 1,097,357 343,337 Percentage Increase from Baseline Emissions 0.00% 190.86% 63.27% 282.35% 19.63% Actual Percentage Reduction from
Business-as-Usual Forecast 78% 35%
Note: CD = Compact Development, JE = Jobs Emphasis, PC = Planning Commission Environmental Review Plan *All data is in metric tons of CO2e
These reductions are realistic estimates of Patterson’s reduction potential through only General Plan policies and state actions. This report demonstrates the City’s efforts to reduce emissions and comply with state direction to date. While targets are not ultimately realized through this document, they provide an important starting point to realize reduction targets and provide a road map for the Climate Action Plan.

The City will adopt a Climate Action Plan within two years. This Climate Action Plan provides the City with the opportunity to close the gap between reduction targets and actual reductions outlined here. The Climate Action Plan represents the single most important opportunity the City has to show compliance with state direction and to mitigate its impact on climate change.

Specifically, the policy for development of a Climate Action Plan has to be specific and quantifiable. The policy for development of the Climate Action Plan also has to require solid target years and reduction targets. It will surpass the actions taken to date through the General Plan and provide concrete, enforceable actions. Through such an approach, the City can create an effective mechanism that facilitates achievement of reduction targets and demonstrates the methods by which they are to be achieved.

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on climate change. By emphasizing the importance of the Climate Action Plan to further address the complexities of achieving reduction targets, the City is placing itself on a trajectory for achieving long-term success and attainment of a successful, informed approach to land use planning.

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Westside-San Joaquin Integrated
Regional Water Management Plan
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Chapter 13 Climate Change
The potential effects of climate change in California are well documented in multiple studies, reports and agency communications (DWR, 2009; CNRA, 2012; Null, et al, 2010; DWR, 2011) and generally point to increased temperatures, sea level rise, a reduced winter snowpack, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent storm events. The purpose of this section is to identify the forecasted climate change impacts specific to the WSJ Region and interpret these changes in climatic and hydrologic variables in terms of the region’s vulnerability. This section also describes how the RMSs pursued in the region can be useful as adaptation responses for the areas of vulnerability and how the Region can monitor climate change information relevant to the region in the future. Climate change aspects are relevant for many of the components of this plan (Objectives, Coordination, RMSs, etc.); therefore, climate change is discussed, as applicable, in the respective chapters.

Climate change is a term with a very specific physical meaning – the long-term change in climatic conditions on the planet – but in the context of IRWM, the term has crossover implications in the physical and natural systems, social and economic activities, and the interaction between stakeholders to plan and implement projects and strategies to accomplish objectives. Several specific aspects of climate change are discussed in this section; some of the relevant terms are defined below:
 Climate change mitigation refers to reductions in GHG emissions that may result from the implementation of policies, projects, and programs, and are discussed in this chapter when presenting RMSs considered by the WSJ Region.
 Climate change adaptation refers to policies, projects and programs that can be used to reduce the vulnerability of the Region to climate change and are discussed in this chapter when presenting RMSs considered by the WSJ Region.
 Climate change impacts refers to changes in specific climatic variables and sea level, but also the resulting impacts in specific aspects of the water resources system such as streamflows, snowpack, water temperature, ecosystem stress, etc. Impacts are discussed in this section first as part of the assessment of vulnerability, but also in terms of how the performance of specific projects and RMSs may vary as a result of climate change.
 Climate change data refers to data, information, modeling results and forecasts related to specific climate, hydrology and ecology variables of interest to the Region. This is discussed in the vulnerability assessment at the end of the chapter when presenting a general plan for continued data gathering efforts.

13.1 Legislative and Policy Context
The climate change elements of this WSJ IRWMP need to consider the current legislative, regulatory, and policy context. In California, specifically, there are a number of policies and laws dealing with climate change (mitigation, adaptation, vulnerability assessment). Relevant legislation and executive orders in terms of California’s response to climate change have been considered in this plan and are summarized in the following sections.

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Executive Order EO S-3-05 (2005)
EO S-3-05 establishes GHG emission reduction targets for California:
 By 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 California levels  By 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 California levels  By 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 California levels The California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA) has established the Climate Action Team (CAT) to coordinate efforts to meet these targets. Specifically relevant to the water sector is the Water-Energy subgroup (also known as WET-CAT) which is tasked with exploring mitigation strategies for energy consumption related to water use. Currently, WET-CAT is tasked with implementation and analysis of five water-related measures (identified in the AB 32 Scoping Plan): water use efficiency, recycled water, water systems efficiency, stormwater reuse, and renewable development (CARB, 2017).

AB 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (2006) AB 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, codifies the mid-term GHG reduction target established in EO S-3-05 and provides further details for those targets. AB 32 identifies CARB as the State agency responsible to develop regulations, emission limits and additional measures to meet the limits.

CARB has designed a California cap-and-trade program that is enforceable and meets the requirements of AB 32. The program started on January 1, 2012, with an enforceable compliance obligation beginning with the 2013 GHG emissions.

Under AB 32, CARB was required to prepare a Scoping Plan to identify and achieve reductions in GHG emissions in California. The first Scoping Plan was adopted by CARB in 2008, and recommended specific strategies for different business sectors, including water management, to achieve the 2020 GHG emissions limit. An updated Scoping Plan was released in 2014 which reviewed progress to date and identified next steps toward meeting the 2020 emissions goal. A second update was finalized in November 2017. In the water sector, the following high-level goals and objectives were identified to reduce GHG emissions (CARB, 2017):
 Develop and support more reliable water supplies for people, agriculture, and the environment, provided by a more resilient, diversified, sustainably managed water resources system with a focus on actions that provide direct GHG reductions.
 Make conservation a California way of life by using and reusing water more efficiently through greater water conservation, drought tolerant landscaping, stormwater capture, water recycling, and reuse to help meet future water demands and adapt to climate change.  Develop and support programs and projects that increase water sector energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions through reduced water and energy use.
 Increase the use of renewable energy to pump, convey, treat, and utilize water.  Reduce the carbon footprint of water systems and water uses for both surface and groundwater supplies through integrated strategies that reduce GHG emissions while meeting the needs of a growing population, improving public safety, fostering environmental stewardship, aiding in adaptation to climate change, and supporting a stable economy.

The Scoping Plan’s goals and objectives were considered during establishment of the WSJ Region’s IRWMP goals and objectives.

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SB 97 (2007)
SB 97 (SB 97) directed the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research to develop Guideline amendments for CEQA to include the analysis of climate change in the environmental permitting process. The CEQA Guidelines call for lead agencies to determine baseline conditions and levels of significance and to evaluate mitigation measures. The guidelines do not prescribe mitigation measures.

Executive Order S-13-08 (2008)
EO S-13-08 is an executive order with the purpose of advancing California’s ability to adapt to climate change and more specifically sea level rise. It directs a number of State agencies to engage in planning and research efforts to assess the vulnerability of California’s transportation system and key coastal infrastructure to different sea level rise scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. It also required the CAT (see EO S-3-05 above) to develop state strategies for adaptation in the water sector, ocean and coastal resources, infrastructure, biodiversity, and other areas. The CNRA, working through CAT, prepared the California Climate Adaptation Strategy in response to this EO (discussed below).

SB 375 (2008)
The Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act of 2008 (Sustainable Communities Act, SB 375) aligns with the State's goals to reduce GHG emissions through coordinated transportation and land use planning. Under the Act, CARB sets regional targets for GHG emissions reductions from passenger vehicle use. In 2010, CARB established these targets for 2020 and 2035 for each region covered by one of the State's metropolitan planning organizations. For the WSJ Region, the corresponding Metropolitan Planning Organizations are the San Joaquin Council of Governments, Stanislaus Council of Governments, Merced County Association of Governments, Madera County Transportation Commission, and the Council of Fresno County Governments. CARB will periodically review and update the targets, as needed.

California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009)
The CNRA developed the California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009) in response to EO S-13-08, outlining a set of guiding principles: “California must protect public health and safety and critical infrastructure; California must protect, restore, and enhance ocean and coastal ecosystems, on which our economy and wellbeing depend; California must ensure public access to coastal areas and protect beaches, natural shoreline, and park and recreational resources; new development and communities must be planned and designed for long-term sustainability in the face of climate change; California must look for ways to facilitate adaptation of existing development and communities to reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts over time; and California must begin now to adapt to the impacts of climate change. We can no longer act as if nothing is changing.” Twelve key recommendations resulting from the strategy (CNRA, 2009) are:

1. Appoint a Climate Adaptation Advisory Panel to assess the greatest risks to California from climate change and to recommend strategies to reduce those risks, building on the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.

2. Implement the 20x2020 water use reductions and expand surface and groundwater storage; implement efforts to fix Delta water supply, quality and ecosystems; support agricultural water use efficiency; improve statewide water quality; improve Delta ecosystem conditions; and stabilize water supplies as developed in the Bay Delta Conservation Plan.

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3. Consider project alternatives that avoid significant new development in areas that cannot be adequately protected from flooding, wildfire, and erosion due to climate change.

4. Prepare, as appropriate, agency-specific adaptation plans, guidance or criteria.

5. For all significant state projects, including infrastructure projects, consider the potential impacts of locating such projects in areas susceptible to hazards resulting from climate change.

6. The Climate Adaptation Advisory Panel and other agencies will assess California’s vulnerability to climate change, identify impacts to state assets, and promote climate adaptation/mitigation awareness through the Hazard Mitigation Web Portal and My Hazards Website, as well as other appropriate sites.

7. Identify key California land and aquatic habitats that could change significantly during this century due to climate change.

8. The California Department of Public Health will develop guidance for use by local health departments and other agencies to assess mitigation and adaptation strategies, which include impacts on vulnerable populations and communities, and assessment of cumulative health impacts.

9. Communities with General Plans and Local Coastal Plans should begin, when possible, to amend their plans to assess climate change impacts, identify areas most vulnerable to these impacts, and develop reasonable and rational risk reduction strategies using the CAS as guidance.

10. State firefighting agencies should begin immediately to include climate change impact information into fire program planning to inform future planning efforts.

11. State agencies should meet projected population growth and increased energy demand with greater energy conservation and an increased use of renewable energy.

12. New climate change impact research should be broadened and funded.

GHG Reporting Rule (2009)
Closely related to SB32 but at the federal level, in September 2009, USEPA released the Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Rule (74FR56260, Reporting Rule) which requires reporting of GHG data and other relevant information from large sources and suppliers in the United States, such as Pacific Gas & Electric.

California Ocean Protection Council Resolution (2011)
Adopted in March 2011, this resolution directs entities implementing coastal projects to consider sea level rise vulnerabilities and establishes that state agencies should make decisions regarding coastal and ocean management based upon guiding principles presented in the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy (see above).

National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change (2012) In 2012, the USEPA released a report entitled National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change. The report assesses climate change impacts on water resources and identifies long- and shortterm strategies to address the potential impacts of climate change. The report also outlines guiding principles for enacting its vision and recommendations for program support across agencies.

California Water Plan (CWP) Update (2013)
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resources. The CWP also facilitates collaboration between various groups, including elected officials, agencies, tribes, water and resource managers, businesses, academics, stakeholders, and the public, as these groups work together to make informed decisions about the future of water in California. The CWP also includes RMSs which are aimed at reducing water demand, increasing water supply, reducing flood risk, improving water quality, and enhancing environmental and resource stewardship. In addition to the RMSs, the CWP Update 2013 lists the following 17 objectives to help achieve the goals of the CWP:

1. Strengthen integrated regional water management

2. Use and reuse water more efficiently

3. Expand conjunctive management of multiple supplies

4. Protect and restore surface water and groundwater quality

5. Practice environmental stewardship

6. Improve flood management using an integrated water management approach

7. Manage the Delta to achieve the coequal goals for California

8. Prepare Prevention, Response and Recovery Plans

9. Reduce the carbon footprint of water systems and water uses

10. Improve data, analysis, and decision-support tools

11. Invest in water technology and science

12. Strengthen Tribal/State relations and natural resources management

13. Ensure equitable distribution of benefits

14. Protect and enhance public access to the State’s waterways, lakes, and beaches

15. Strengthen alignment of land use planning and integrated water management

16. Strengthen alignment of government processes and tools

17. Improve integrated regional water management finance strategy and investments At a more local level, the CWP includes reports that summarize regional water conditions, including a water balance, water quality conditions, and flood management. The CWP identifies ten regions in the State; the WSJ Region is overlapped by the San Joaquin River and Tulare Lake Hydrologic Regions. These regional summaries also delineate the challenges facing each region and potential future scenarios for water management in the region and the WSJ IRWMP update draws on this information throughout. A 2018 CWP Update is underway as of spring 2018.

Safeguarding California: Reducing Climate Risk, an Update to the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2014)
As an update and supplement to the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy, the CNRA prepared the Safeguarding California Plan. The intent of the Plan is to provide policy guidance for decision makers at the state level. The Plan details the climate risks to nine sectors, including water resources, and makes recommendations within each sector. The Plan provides the following guidance to address climate risks relative to water resources (CNRA, 2014):

1. Vigorously prepare California for flooding

2. Support regional groundwater management for drought resiliency

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4. Reduce Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta climate change vulnerability

5. Prepare California for hotter and dryer conditions and improve water storage capacity

6. Address water-related impacts of climate change on vulnerable and disadvantaged populations and cultural resources

7. Continue to mainstream climate considerations into water management

8. Utilize LID and other methods in State and regional stormwater permits to restore the natural hydrograph

9. Require closer collaboration and coordination of land use and water planning activities to ensure that each reinforces sustainable development that is resilient to climate changes

10. Protect and restore water resources for important ecosystems

11. Better understand climate risks to California water and develop tools to support efforts to prepare for climate risks
Climate Ready Utilities (2015)
In 2010, the USEPA released its Climate Ready Water Utilities Program, which provided tools to support water and wastewater utilities as they plan for the future. The tools and resources aimed to help utility owners and operators to understand climate risks, provide adaptation strategies, and support decision making. In 2015, the USEPA released an update to the 2010 report, entitled Adaptation Strategies Guide for Water Utilities. The guide focuses on adaptation strategies for drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater utilities. The guide is intended to help utilities identify climate-related threats and come up with an adaptation plan.

Statewide Climate Change Projections
The statewide effects of climate change provide relevant background for discussing climate change within the WSJ Region. Below is a brief overview of climate change impacts on the State.  Temperature: California’s average temperature has increased by 1.7°F over roughly the past century (Moser et al., 2012). Higher elevations have seen the highest temperature increases. Summer temperatures in California are expected to increase by 0.9 to 3.6°F by 2030 (CAT, 2009).

Temperature increases are expected to be more pronounced in the summer than in the winter (CAT, 2009). Higher temperatures also increase evapotranspiration, which raises crop water demands.  Precipitation: With a warming climate, more precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow (CNRA, 2012). This will likely cause more streamflow in the winter, and less in the spring and summer, when water demands are higher. Extreme precipitation events are also expected to become more frequent (CBO, 2009).
 Snowpack: The Sierra Nevada snowpack has been shrinking (CCSP, 2008). California’s snowpack is also expected to melt earlier in the spring due to rising spring temperatures. Accelerated snowmelt reduces the snowpack’s ability to act as a natural reservoir and puts additional pressure on the state’s water storage infrastructure.
 Streamflow: With more frequent storm events and earlier spring snowmelt, as well as increase possibility of drought, streamflow in the State’s surface water bodies is likely to become more variable (CNRA, 2012). This results in stress on water infrastructure and water suppliers, and also poses flood risks. Water quality can be impacted by reduction in streamflows because pollutants become more concentrated in lower volumes of water
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 Wildfire: As drier and warmer weather becomes more common across the state, wildfire risk is expected to remain high or increase (CCSP, 2008). Sediment runoff into water bodies after wildfires can lower water quality.

13.2 Climate Change Projections for the Region
For the WSJ IRWMP, two main sources of information have been used to define potential climate change impacts for the Region. The first one is the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) tool developed by the USEPA, from which specific temperature and precipitation forecasts are available with geographic specificity. The second source of information is a study on hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate change for the watersheds of the Sierra Nevada, published in 2010 (Null et. al., 2010).

The importance of the hydrologic response study is that the climate variables of temperature and precipitation have been used as inputs to mechanistic hydrology models that forecast watershed impacts.

The following sections describe the CREAT results and the analysis by Null et al.

CREAT Results
CREAT is a risk assessment- and scenario-based planning application for utilities in United States.

Developed by the USEPA, it contains basic national and regional climate science information, and has the ability to access data for specific geographic locations with comparisons of temperature and precipitation under mid-term and long-term conditions using different sets of predictions.

The most significant watersheds for the WSJ Region are the western-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds of the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin, and Kings Rivers. CREAT results were obtained from the USEPA’s CREAT Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map for an area in the Kings River headwaters and in the Tuolumne River in order to show predicted changes for a geographic range across these watersheds (USEPA, 2016). Table 13-1 shows the predicted change in annual temperature and precipitation forecasted for the year 2060 for a general circulation model (GCM, also referred to as a global climate model) with a hot and dry tendency (worst-case projections). Table 13-1 also shows the predicted change in 100-year storm intensity. Figure 13-1 and Figure 13-2 display the CREAT Climate Change Scenarios Projections for much of central California, including both the WSJ Region and the sources of its rivers in the Sierra Nevada.

Table 13-1: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation (CREAT Results, 2060 Prediction) Watershed Average Temperature
Difference
Annual Precipitation
Difference
Change in 100-Year
Storm Intensity1
Kings River +4.9 oF -4.0% +15 to 25%
Tuolumne River +4.6 oF -5.3% +10 to 27%
1 Range represents 2 GCM scenarios, one showing a stormier future than the other.

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Source: USEPA, 2016
Figure 13-1: CREAT Predictions of Change in Average Temperature by 2060, Using a Hot/Dry Model Scenario
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Source: USEPA, 2016
Figure 13-2: CREAT Predictions of Change in Average Annual Precipitation by 2060, Using a Hot/Dry Model Scenario
Hydrology Impacts and Watershed Sensitivity
While the forecasted results in temperature and precipitation give an idea of how the local weather is expected to change on average, it is necessary to translate those changes into impacts on water resources systems. The study Hydrologic Response and Watershed Sensitivity to Climate Warming in California’s Sierra Nevada (Null, et. al., 2010) assessed the differential hydrologic responses to climate change of 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds. Figure 13-3 shows the watersheds evaluated in the 2010 study. The Stanislaus, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin, and Kings Rivers, which correspond to the most significant watersheds for the WSJ Region, are all included in the analysis.

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Source: Null et al, 2010.

Figure 13-3: West-Slope Sierra Nevada Watersheds Studied The study of hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity is based on a mechanistic hydrology model developed in WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning model, developed by Stockholm Environmental Institute) to simulate intra-basin hydrologic dynamics given the climate variables. The model uses historical data from the period of 1981 to 2001, which includes a wide range of climatic variability including the wettest year on record (1983), the flood year of record (1997) and a prolonged drought (1988-1992). In terms of temperature, incremental climate warming alternatives were developed with uniform increases in air temperature of 2o
C, 4oC, and 6oC (T2, T4 and T6, respectively) to evaluate impacts on regional water systems. (For reference, these increases equate to 3.6o F, 7.2oF, and 10.8oF,
respectively.) For each scenario, the model produced simulated hydrology sequences and computed mean annual flow, centroid timing and low-flow duration for each of the watersheds in the study.

Results of modeling the 15 watersheds indicated that increases in temperature generally result in lower mean annual flow (the average yearly flow in the watershed). A summary of the reduction in average annual flow for the relevant watersheds contributing flows to the WSJ Region is presented in Table 13-2.

Reductions in mean annual flow could have significant implication for the ability to meet demands for agricultural, urban and environmental water uses.

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Table 13-2: Modeled Mean Annual Flow for Watersheds and Temperature Scenarios Watershed Annual Average Flow (mcm) Change from Base Case (%) Base Case T2 T4 T6 T2 T4 T6
Stanislaus 1,561 1,523 1,482 1,435 -2.4 -5.1 -8.1
Tuolumne 2,445 2,401 2,354 2,304 -1.8 -3.7 -5.8
Merced 1,348 1,308 1,272 1,237 -3.0 -5.6 -8.2
San Joaquin 2,294 2,265 2,235 2,201 -1.3 -2.6 -4.1
Kings 2,117 2,094 2,070 2,041 -1.1 -2.2 -3.6
In California climate change predictions, the timing of stream flows is consistently shown to be an element with considerable impact, affecting the management of surface water reservoirs for both flood control and water supply. The study by Null et al. evaluated the runoff centroid timing, which is the date at which the total annual runoff at the outlet of each watershed has passed. Centroid timing is primarily driven by snowmelt, which is driven by temperature. Results of the study for all of the 15 watersheds modeled are presented in Figure 13-4.

Source: Null et al., 2010 – Figure 6, page 8 FEA – Feather MOK – Mokelumne SJN – San Joaquin Base case – baseline scenario YUB – Yuba CAL – Calaveras KNG – Kings T2 – 2oC temperature increase BAR – Bear STN – Stanislaus KAW – Kaweah T4 – 4oC temperature increase AMR – American TUO – Tuolumne TUL – Tule T6 – 6oC temperature increase COS – Cosumnes MER – Merced KRN – Kern Figure 13-4: Average Centroid Timing by Watershed and Climate Scenario The results in Figure 13-4 are presented with the label for each watershed in the x-axis in the order of north to south. The y-axis presents the centroid timing (date). The relevant watersheds for the WSJ Region are labeled as follows:

Stanislaus – STN
Tuolumne – TUO
Merced – MER
San Joaquin – SJN
Kings - KNG
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The results show significant changes in centroid timing as indicated by the separation of the lines from base case to T2, T4, and T6. The minimum difference in centroid timing is for the scenario with a 2o C
increase in temperature, which is about a 2-week change in centroid timing. The difference with T6 is over one month, indicating that the flows would arrive to the Region about a month earlier due to earlier snowmelt. This could have significant implications for water management in the Region. The watersheds of interest have very similar impacts in centroid timing mostly due to the fact that they have similar proportion of areas of high and lower elevations. Areas of high elevations are more susceptible to hydrology changes due to temperature increase given that these are snowpack-driven watersheds.

A third variable simulated by Null et al. is low flow duration. Low flow duration is the number of weeks with “low flow” conditions and, in this case, “low flow” has been defined as periods of at least three weeks where weekly discharge divided by total discharge for the water year is less than 1%. Although this definition of low flow is not based on a specific regulation, it does represent a flow condition that can stress a water supply system and aquatic habitat.

The results of modeling simulated changes in low flow duration are presented in Figure 13-5 with the label for each watershed along the x-axis (from north to south). The y-axis shows the number of weeks under low flow conditions (average over the years simulated).

Source: Null et al., 2010 – Figure 8, page 9 FEA – Feather MOK – Mokelumne SJN – San Joaquin Base case – baseline scenario YUB – Yuba CAL – Calaveras KNG – Kings T2 – 2oC temperature increase BAR – Bear STN – Stanislaus KAW – Kaweah T4 – 4oC temperature increase AMR – American TUO – Tuolumne TUL – Tule T6 – 6oC temperature increase COS – Cosumnes MER – Merced KRN – Kern Figure 13-5: Average Number of Low Flow Weeks by Watershed and Climate Scenario For the relevant watersheds for the WSJ Region (Stanislaus, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin and Kings), the results show changes in low flow duration for the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers as indicated by the separation of the lines from base case to T2, T4, and T6. The minimum difference in low flow duration is for the scenario with a 2o
C increase in temperature, which is about one more week of low flow duration. Changes are much less significant for the San Joaquin and Kings Rivers. It is also relevant to mention that the estimated low flow durations in this case are specifically for the rivers in a geographic location outside the WSJ Region. The low flows in these locations, however, will be likely correlated with lower flows downstream in areas within the WSJ Region.

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Based on these predictions, it behooves the WSJ Region to consider the implications for water management. Earlier snowmelt and more intense storm events will result in increased runoff and potential flooding, which will likely occur earlier in the year, be more variable, and carry a greater sediment load. Resilient systems are needed to deal with the expected changes in the intensity of these events, including measures to capture runoff for beneficial use as groundwater recharge. Extended dry periods are also expected to occur with a changing climate; these would result in extremely low streamflow and low amounts of recharge. Low streamflow can exacerbate water quality issues as less dilution occurs. Poor recharge can also result in land subsidence during droughts. Therefore, hydrologic changes present a range of water supply, water quality, and flood management issues that the Region will consider. Adaptations to these issues are discussed in more detail in Section 13.3 under the respective vulnerability category.

Sea Level Rise
Although the WSJ Region is not a coastal region, it is dependent on the CVP for water supply to a large extent. As CVP supplies are conveyed via the Delta, sea level rise may impact the Region if Delta salinity increases and reservoir operations are impacted. Disruptions in the overall operation of the CVP can result in impacts to all CVP contractors. This makes sea level rise a relevant, climate change-driven factor to consider in terms of vulnerability. Section 13.3, where the vulnerability of the region is discussed, includes a description of the relevance of sea level rise to water supply for the WSJ Region. Table 13-3 presents assessments of potential sea level rise in the Delta region according to a variety of GCM model scenarios.

Table 13-3: Sea Level Rise Projections for San Francisco and Delta Region (2050) Scenario Projection
“Business as usual” scenario
(with a mix of fossil fuel and non-fossil fuel) 11.0 ± 3.6 in Lower emission scenario 4.8 in
“Business as usual” scenario (fossil fuel intensive) 23.9 in Source: NRC, 2012. Projected sea levels are increases in mean sea level from the year 2000.

13.3 WSJ Region Climate Change Vulnerability
The climate change issues facing the Region were evaluated using the comprehensive Region Description (Chapter 2), California-wide predictions of climate change impacts, and regional/local climate change impacts. This information provided a basis for the WSJ IRWMP Region to assess its vulnerabilities to climate change. The Region used DWR’s Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning Vulnerability Assessment Checklist to evaluate vulnerabilities (Appendix G). The Checklist is framed as a series of questions related to vulnerabilities in seven categories: Water Demand, Water Supply, Water Quality, Sea Level Rise, Flooding, Ecosystem and Habitat Vulnerability, and Hydropower. The following sections discuss the vulnerabilities of the region to climate change impacts within these categories as identified during completion of the checklist. The Region’s vulnerabilities, as well as the technical and financial feasibility of addressing the vulnerabilities are summarized in Table 13-4.

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Table 13-4: WSJ Region Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Area of
Vulnerability Summary Technical Feasibility of Addressing Vulnerability Financial Feasibility of Addressing Vulnerability Water Demand
A large percentage of the water demand in the WSJ Region is driven by agricultural irrigation. Higher temperatures will drive increased evapotranspiration rates and increase irrigation demand. This is applicable not only to agricultural demands (although that is the most significant impact), but also to outdoor demands in urban areas in the Region.

Feasible. Demands may be reduced through efficiency measures, but these do have a limit, beyond which more drastic changes would be necessary within the Region to reduce demand further.

Varies. Certain efficiency measures such as retrofits could be inexpensive, while solutions such as developing a new water supply would be costly.

Water Supply
The Region is highly dependent on surface flows that are vulnerable to decreased precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. The water management system in the Region and State relies heavily on surface storage, including snowpack in the Sierras. The storage of water in snowpack is vulnerable, with earlier snowmelt and more intense short-duration storm events expected. More extended and potentially more frequent droughts will compound supply vulnerability and can also result in higher demands in agricultural and urban areas.

Feasible. Strategies like conjunctive management and recycled water expansion are technically feasible and some are already in use within the Region. More extreme solutions would include development of new surface storage.

Strategies for adapting to climate change impacts on water supply would generally be expensive. Development of new storage or supplies would be costly, as would treatment of lowquality supplies. The implementation of such projects can be cost prohibitive for agencies and communities, especially those in the WSJ Region that are DACs.

Water Quality
Surface water quality is vulnerable due to several factors, including increased low flow duration, an expected reduction in meadows, and a potential increase in storm intensity with short-term turbidity effects. Groundwater quality can also be vulnerable due to greater pressure on aquifers to offset surface supply shortages, thus creating overdraft conditions. Wildfires are expected to be more likely with post-event impacts to surface water quality.

Feasible. Technologies exist to treat water to a variety of standards and could be implemented within the Region if necessary. Solutions such as land use management could also be implemented (both to prevent wildfires and erosion in general), although some would need to occur outside the Region to have a downstream effect.

Varies. Strategies such as increased water treatment or aquifer remediation would be quite expensive. Land management changes or fire prevention efforts would be less costly.

Flood Management The Region’s flood management system is vulnerable to the changes in the balance of
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Area of
Vulnerability Summary Technical Feasibility of Addressing Vulnerability Financial Feasibility of Addressing Vulnerability storage to streamflow triggered by earlier snowmelt. More intense storms are also predicted while meadow area may be reduced, eliminating a natural peak flow reduction mechanism. restoration, LID, stormwater runoff management, and levee improvements. inexpensive, while levee improvements could be very costly.

Ecosystem and Habitat
Some terrestrial habitats will be vulnerable to increases in the frequency of wildfires, but the higher vulnerability may be in aquatic habitat due to changes in runoff timing and increased low flow periods and droughts. Higher water temperatures can also degrade water quality and stress aquatic species.

Feasible. Ecosystem restoration, pollution prevention, land management are proven strategies to preserve ecosystem services and restore habitats. Some issues, such as effects of climate change, may be more difficult to address on a Regional level, although mitigation measures may be implemented to help reduce these effects.

Varies. Ecosystem and habitat restoration projects may range widely in cost but can be an effective alternative to more costly infrastructure projects.

Hydropower
The Region produces some hydropower, which could be vulnerable to reduced surface water flows and CVP water availability. Energy needs in general are also expected to rise in the future due to increasing temperatures and irrigation demands. The rising cost of hydropower generated outside the Region (and associated increased cost of water delivery) also represents a vulnerability for ratepayers within the Region.

Low feasibility. The Region may be able to address some impacts indirectly through water supply improvements, but the majority of impacts could not be addressed.

Low. Producing additional hydropower in the Region would require new projects and is unlikely to be financially viable.

Sea Level Rise
A large number of water purveyors in the WSJ Region rely heavily on the Delta, the DeltaMendota Canal, and associated conveyance. Sea level rise will require more Delta outflow to maintain manageable levels of salinity near the export facilities. This may result in a less reliable water supply south of the Delta, and thus within the Region.

Low feasibility. The Region may be able to address some impacts indirectly (e.g., through water supply improvements to reduce reliance on the Delta), but occurrence of sea level rise could not be directly addressed by the Region except through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Low. This vulnerability would need to be addressed indirectly via improvements to water supply (discussed above).

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Vulnerability Assessment
Water Demand and Supply
The correlation between temperature and water demand for irrigation is well documented and understood. In the WSJ Region, which encompasses approximately 2 million acres in total, about 800,000 acres are partially or solely irrigated with CVP water (depending on water availability conditions). Thus, the largest percentage of the water demand is driven by agricultural irrigation, and higher temperatures will drive great evapotranspiration rates and increase demands. This is applicable not only to agricultural demands (although that is the most significant impact), but also to outdoor demands in urban areas in the region.

In terms of environmental demands, Section 3406(d) of the CVP Improvement Act (CVPIA) requires firm water supplies to be delivered to federal, state and some private wildlife refuges. Historically, the wetlands throughout the region received water from the San Joaquin River. The CVPIA required firm water supplies of suitable quality to maintain and improve wetland habitat. This specific demand and other habitat-related demands may not increase but will continue to need limited water supplies under climate change conditions.

Compounding the impacts of increased water demands, water supply is also projected to be vulnerable to climate change impacts. Reduced annual precipitation and the timing of that precipitation combined with higher temperatures will result in new seasonality of flows due to earlier snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada, as discussed in Section 13.2.

Reduced surface water supplies could trigger a reduction in agricultural surface water use, resulting in a corresponding increase in groundwater use. This, in turn, may result in groundwater elevation declines such that infiltration from rivers to groundwater occurs, resulting in a groundwater-base flow disconnect.

Many of the water users in the Region rely on groundwater on a permanent, seasonal or dry-year basis, and overall stresses in surface water make groundwater in the Tracy, Delta-Mendota and Westside subbasins susceptible to overdraft, which has further effects such as land subsidence.

CVP Supply
Disruptions in the overall operation of the CVP can result in impacts to all CVP contractors, and some critical elements of the CVP are vulnerable to sea level rise in terms of salinity impacts. A rising sea level will impact the Delta by increasing the risk of overtopping and other forms of levee failure, and by increased saline/brackish tidal pressure, which if not countered by increases in freshwater outflows, will lead to higher salinity intrusion and higher salinity levels in the Delta.

The CVP’s Jones Pumping Plant is located in the southwestern edge of the Delta (just outside the WSJ Region) and lifts water into the Delta-Mendota Canal, which travels southward to the Mendota Pool, supplying water along the way to CVP contractors and San Luis Reservoir. Although irrigation canals are not subject to drinking water regulations, increased salinity levels at the plant due to a levee failure could require a temporary stop in diversions to the CVP because agricultural crops are sensitive to water quality and because the supply eventually mingles with that of the SWP in San Luis Reservoir, which serves water to both agricultural and municipal users. There are no set thresholds for salinity, bromide, or other constituents at which the Jones Pumping Plant would cease operations, but a significant increase in salinity in the vicinity of the pumping plants intakes could result in CVP disruption with impacts to the WSJ Region.

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Water Quality
Surface water quality is vulnerable due to several factors, including longer periods of low flows, more frequent and intense droughts, and higher water temperature that can reduce dissolved oxygen concentrations. The vulnerability of meadows and other vegetated areas upstream can have consequences for water quality since natural vegetation removes pollutants and/or prevents them from entering streams. Wildfires are expected to be more likely and will bring with them post-event impacts to surface water quality. A potential increase in storm intensity could also trigger short-term turbidity increases. These negative surface water impacts also affect habitat vulnerability (described further below) by reducing or degrading suitable habitat.

Groundwater quality can also be vulnerable to climate change due to increased use of aquifers to offset surface supply shortages. This results in the use of deeper wells or shallower wells with lower water quality than currently produced. Overdraft conditions may persist for longer periods, preventing the basins from recovering even during wet periods, with associated water quality consequences. Increased pumping of deeper, higher quality groundwater can result in increased vertical gradients, with poorer quality shallow groundwater migrating to and impacting the deeper zones. As discussed in Chapter 2, groundwater levels in some areas of the Region have been declining due to the long-term overdraft conditions caused by continued pumping, and climate change may continue to exacerbate these effects.

Flood Management
A majority of the San Joaquin River’s 100-year floodplain (in the stretch of the San Joaquin River at the geographic edge of the WSJ Region) is within the Region (Figure 2-4). The vulnerability of the region to floods is significant since there have been critical flooding events with great consequences for the economy, infrastructure, assets, and residents, even in the relatively recent past. These historical floods have been triggered by high peak flows due to high-intensity storms and/or rapid snowmelt at the Sierra Nevada foothills triggered by tropical storms. As described previously, it is expected that more intense storms could result from climate change. The WSJ Region is vulnerable to changes in the balance between storage and streamflow that can be triggered by earlier snowmelt under climate change conditions. More intense storms are predicted while natural recharge areas may be reduced, eliminating a natural peak flow attenuation mechanism.

Ecosystem and Habitat
There are a number of natural areas in the San Joaquin Valley that, while scattered throughout the region, provide concentrated areas of grasslands and habitats, such as freshwater marshes, valley sink scrub, and grassland vernal pool habitats. Some terrestrial habitats can be vulnerable to increased frequency of wildfires, but aquatic habitats are more vulnerable overall due to changes in runoff timing and increased low flow periods and droughts. Increases in water demands and reductions in overall water supplies will make it challenging for the Region to protect habitats under increased competition for limited supply, particularly in dry years. Higher water temperatures can also degrade water quality and stress aquatic species of interest.

Hydropower
Within the Region, some hydropower is generated at the O’Neill Pumping Plant when water is released from the O’Neill Forebay into the Delta-Mendota Canal. The electricity produced is sold and distributed to the larger power grid. The plant produces power intermittently, generally in the months of May through October, although this depends on the needs of the water users south of Los Banos. The plant may Packet Pg. 648
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generate more energy during droughts, as generally water users in this area rely on water delivered through the Jones Pumping Plant, receiving water from the O’Neill Forebay only when other allocations are reduced. The O’Neill Pumping Plant is not a major source of power in the Region, thus, any impacts of climate change on this source will likely have minor effects on the Region. Overall, the effects of climate change on the Region’s hydropower production are uncertain. Most of the hydropower for the CVP is generated outside the Region; this represents a significant vulnerability for the Region, as CVP water rates could be impacted by reduced hydropower generation capacity.

Sea Level Rise
Although the WSJ Region is not a coastal area and does not stand to be directly impacted by sea level rise (e.g., via flooding), it may be indirectly impacted via the Delta. As noted above, the Region depends heavily on the CVP for water supply. These supplies are conveyed via the Delta. With sea level rise, salinity in the Delta may increase, impacting reservoir operations and transfer of water through the Delta, and increasing the risk of levee failure. With higher sea levels, the Delta will become more saline/brackish unless sufficient freshwater outflows are present. This has implications for water supplies conveyed through the Delta (including CVP supply). Additional discussion of sea level rise impacts on water supply are discussed in the Water Demand and Supply subsection, above.

Vulnerability Prioritization
These six areas of vulnerability were reviewed and prioritized by the Working Group. The vulnerabilities were ranked as either high or low priority. The Working Group designated high priority areas as ones that should be addressed first; lower priority areas were noted to require medium- to long-term solutions. The vulnerability areas were not further ranked within each category. The vulnerability areas were ranked as follows:
 High Priority (address first): water supply, water quality, and flood management vulnerabilities  Lower Priority (medium- to long-term): water demand, ecosystem/habitat, and hydropower vulnerabilities
The ranking reflects the Region’s primary concerns and the urgency with which the vulnerabilities should be addressed. Due to the Region’s high level of dependence on water supply to support its agricultural industry, water supply was highly prioritized. A majority of the projects included in this WSJ IRWMP are related to, or have important components of, water supply, reflecting the Region’s views on the importance of addressing water supply needs today and into the future. Flood management is also of concern in the Region as its effects can be widespread and costly to life and property; the potential for damaging floods is expected to rise as climate changes. Therefore, flood management was identified as a high priority area. The final high-priority vulnerability is water quality. The Region has experienced water quality issues which affect both domestic and agricultural water use, and addressing these issues is central to climate change adaptation and continued water supply. This WSJ IRWMP has strong statements relating to flood management and environmental stewardship, reflecting the primary prioritization of those vulnerabilities.

Water demand, ecosystem/habitat, and hydropower vulnerabilities are expected to be less exacerbated by climate change than water supply, quality, and flood management; therefore, these vulnerabilities have been assigned a lower priority. The Region aims to implement adaptation measures to reduce these vulnerabilities but may do so over a long-term timeframe in order to address more pressing issues first.

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DAC Climate Vulnerabilities
Climate change impacts to DACs are similar to the vulnerabilities of the Region as a whole. However, DACs have fewer resources to adapt to climate change impacts. For example, prolonged droughts, which are expected to become more common due to climate change, disproportionately impact DACs that rely solely on groundwater or do not have diversified supplies. Future efforts, such as those conducted under SGMA, will help evaluate undesirable results that DACs may be experiencing related to their groundwater supply. Additionally, DACs may not have the financial or staff resources to implement new water supply projects to prepare for drought. Individual community members may also be impacted if water rates rise (due to supply shortages or increased delivery costs resulting from rising energy prices). DACs can also suffer from drought-related impacts on Region's agricultural economy, such as lost jobs due to lowered agricultural production. Although the WSJ Region has relatively little area within the 100-year floodplain, DACs in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding resulting in damages or displacement.

13.4 RMSs Providing Climate Change Adaptation
The WSJ Region has been collaborating on planning and program and project implementation efforts for many years. Regional planning has been the primary forum to address regional issues and conflicts. This WSJ IRWMP distinguishes itself from previous regional planning efforts in the WSJ Region in that a formal assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability has been performed, and RMSs are discussed in the context of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In many cases, an RMS applicable to the Region has the potential to mitigate climate change impacts by reducing GHG emissions, and in many cases, the RMSs can be used to adapt to climate change impacts, reducing the Region’s vulnerability. The RMSs are presented in Table 13-5 with references to the vulnerability areas in which they can increase the regions resiliency.

Table 13-5: Applicability of RMSs in Adapting to Climate Change Vulnerabilities Resource Management Strategies
Water DemandWater SupplyWater QualityFlood ManagementEcosystem and Habitat Hydropower Reduce Water Demand
Agricultural Water Use Efficiency   
Urban Water Use Efficiency   
Improve Operational Efficiency and Transfers
Conveyance-Delta    
Conveyance-Regional/Local    
System Reoperation   
Water Transfers  
Increase Water Supply
Conjunctive Management and Groundwater   
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Resource Management Strategies
Water DemandWater SupplyWater QualityFlood ManagementEcosystem and Habitat Hydropower Desalination 
Precipitation Enhancement  
Recycled Municipal Water  
Surface Storage-CALFED     
Surface Storage-Regional/Local     
Improve Water Quality
Drinking Water Treatment and Distribution  
Groundwater Remediation/Aquifer Remediation  
Matching Water Quality to Use   
Pollution Prevention   
Salt and Salinity Management   
Urban Stormwater Runoff Management    
Practice Resource Stewardship
Agricultural Land Stewardship    
Ecosystem Restoration     
Forest Management*    
Land Use Planning and Management    
Recharge Areas Protection   
Sediment Management     
Watershed Management      
People and Water
Economic Incentives      
Outreach and Engagement      
Water and Culture   
Water-Dependent Recreation   
Improve Flood Management
Flood Management    
Other Strategies
Crop Idling for Water Transfers*   
Dewvaporation or Atmospheric Pressure
Desalination*  
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Resource Management Strategies
Water DemandWater SupplyWater QualityFlood ManagementEcosystem and Habitat Hydropower Fog Collection* 
Irrigated Land Retirement*  
Rainfed Agriculture*  
Waterbag Transport/Storage Technology*   
*These strategies were not included when developing objectives or evaluating projects as they either do not apply to the WSJ IRWMP Region, or would not be considered in the Region unless all other RMSs had been exhausted, as discussed in Chapter 4.

13.5 Plans for Future Data Gathering
As climate change continues to impact the Region, it is vital that data be gathered to help the Region react appropriately to climate change impacts. Robust data collection practices will help the Region plan for future changes and will provide a basis for prioritizing and identifying high-priority projects that will provide adaptation or mitigation benefits. The general strategy for climate change data gathering is to align this specific data collection need with the overall data management process for the Region. As part of IRWM project implementation, different types of data will be collected to track project performance and meet monitoring program requirements. Table 13-6 provides detail on the types of data that may be collected during project implementation in order to support the Region’s efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change.

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Table 13-6: Data Gathering Strategy to Assess Climate Change Impacts Climate Change
Vulnerability Category Potential Data to be Gathered
Water Demand  Water meter data (municipal, commercial, industrial)  Groundwater use (municipal and agricultural)
 Demand projections
 Population projections
Water Supply  Groundwater elevation data
 Streamflow (especially seasonal low flows)
 Reservoir levels
Water Quality  Groundwater quality (e.g., salinity, TDS, arsenic, nitrate)  Surface water quality (e.g., turbidity, temperature, dissolved oxygen)  Household water quality, particularly in DACs
Flood Management  Streamflow measurements
 Area flooded during storm events
 Value of assets in floodplain
Ecosystem and Habitat  Fish surveys
 Animal and plant surveys
 Habitat surveys (e.g., to assess streambed quality)
 Volume of water provided for environmental uses
Hydropower  Kilowatt hours produced
 Frequency of power generation
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2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX E: CITY OF PATTERSON WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN 2025
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City of
Patterson
Water
Shortage
Contingency
Plan 2025
June 2026
woodardcurran.com
95 Third Street | 2
nd Floor
San Francisco, California 94103
800.426.4262
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) i Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................1-1

2. WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS.......................................................................................2-2

2.1 Water Service Reliability Findings.............................................................................................................2-2

2.2 Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plan.................................................................................. 2-10

3. ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES ................................. 3-11

4. WATER SHORTAGE STAGES........................................................................................................ 4-13

5. SHORTAGE RESPONSE ACTIONS................................................................................................ 5-16

5.1 Supply Augmentation Actions ................................................................................................................ 5-16

5.2 Demand Reduction Actions ..................................................................................................................... 5-17

5.3 Operational Changes.................................................................................................................................. 5-19

5.4 Additional Mandatory Restrictions ....................................................................................................... 5-20

6. COMMUNICATION PROTOCOLS ................................................................................................ 6-21

7. COMPLIANCE AND ENFORCEMENT........................................................................................... 7-22

8. LEGAL AUTHORITIES ................................................................................................................... 8-23

9. FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF WSCP ..................................................................................... 9-24

10. MONITORING AND REPORTING .............................................................................................. 10-25

11. WSCP REFINEMENT PROCEDURE............................................................................................. 11-26

12. SPECIAL WATER FEATURE DISTINCTION ................................................................................ 12-27

13. PLAN ADOPTION, SUBMITTAL, AND AVAILABILITY.............................................................. 13-28 Packet Pg. 656
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TABLES
Table 2-1. Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-2) Table 2-2. Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 2-3. Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Table 2-4. Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-3) Table 2-5. Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 2-6. Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Table 2-8. Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (DWR Table 7-4) Table 2-9. Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (Potable Only) Table 2-10. Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison (Non-Potable Only) Table 2-10. Drought Risk Assessment (DWR Table 7-5)
Table 4-1: Water Shortage Contingency Plan Levels
Table 4-2: Cross-Reference for Standard vs. Supplier Shortage Levels (DWR Table 8-1) Table 5-1: Supply Augmentation and Other Actions (DWR Table 8-2) Table 5-2: Demand Reduction Actions (DWR Table 8-3)
Table 6-1: Communication Protocol for Each Water Shortage Level Table 7-1: WSCP Penalties and Charges

APPENDICES
Appendix A: Public Notices and Resolutions
Appendix B: Emergency Response Plan (ERP)
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LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Acronym Definition
AF Acre-Feet
AFY Acre-Feet per Year
AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure
CIMIS
California Irrigation Management Information
System
City City of Patterson
CVP Central Valley Project
CWC California Water Code
DOF California Department of Finance
DRA Drought Risk Assessment
DWR California Department of Water Resources
ERP Emergency Response Plan
gpcd Gallons per Capita per Day
GSP Groundwater Sustainability Plan
MCL Maximum Contaminant Level
PRP Pumping Reduction Plan
Subbasin Delta-Mendota Subbasin
SWRCB State Water Resources Control Board
THM Total Trihalomethanes
UWMP Urban Water Management Plan
UWUO Urban Water Use Objective
WSCP Water Shortage Contingency Plan
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1. INTRODUCTION
The City of Patterson (City) Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP) is a detailed operational plan that documents how the City will respond to a variety of water shortage scenarios. The WSCP establishes protocols for triggering City-wide water supply shortage levels, implementing corresponding water shortage response actions to respond to actual supply conditions, and ensures the strategic management of a short- or long-term water shortage event.

A water shortage may occur due to a variety of potential scenarios, such as drought, climate change, regulatory constraints, natural or human caused disasters, and catastrophic events which may occur at any time. The WSCP is the City’s operating manual that allows the City Council, staff, and the public to identify and efficiently implement pre-determined steps to manage a water shortage.

To match the Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), the City reports water volumes in units of acre-feet (AF) and acre-feet per year (AFY) in the WSCP.

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2. WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
California Water Code (CWC) Section 10632(a)(1) requires an analysis of water supply reliability per CWC Section 10635. The City relies exclusively on groundwater to meet customer needs and has historically met customer demands through times of drought. Conditions could arise such as catastrophic events, prolonged periods of drought, unforeseen impacts to the groundwater supply, etc. that could require the activation of the WSCP.

2.1 Water Service Reliability Findings
The City maintains seven (7) potable well facilities and associated water storage tanks, and three (3) nonpotable irrigation-only well facilities to meet the maximum day demand and fire protection requirements of its water system with the largest well source offline, in accordance with State of California Code of Regulations, Title 22 California Waterworks Standards. All water is pumped from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin.

The rest of this subsection summarizes at a high level the assumptions and results of the water service reliability analysis conducted as part of Chapter 7 of the 2025 UWMP.

Assumptions by water supply source:
• Groundwater, Lower Aquifer: 2,626 AFY for 2030 and beyond in all year types, based on pumping limitations set by the Northern Delta‑Mendota Region Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP) • Groundwater, Upper Aquifer: Approximately 2,000 AFY for potable uses, and 677 AFY for nonpotable uses, in all year types. • Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery project:
o Normal Year:
▪ Stormwater: 750 AFY
▪ Surface water: 800 AFY
o Single dry year:
▪ Stormwater: 491 AF – Based on precipitation data collected at the Patterson CIMIS Station for Water Years 2000-2017, precipitation in dry and critically dry years (San Joaquin water year index) is 65% of average year precipitation of 12.2 inches per year. Thus, the 750 AF of average year supply available from stormwater is assumed to be 750 * 65% = 491 AF.
▪ Surface water: 800 AF; single-dry years are assumed to result in no reduction of available supply from Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir.
o Five consecutive dry years:

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▪ Stormwater: 491 AF – same assumption as a single-dry year; during the 2012-2016 multi-year drought, precipitation was variable but was similar to the overall average of dry and critically dry years.
▪ Surface water: the first year of a 5 consecutive dry year cycle is assumed to provide the full assumption of 800 AF of surface water supply. In subsequent years, the City assumes water will be available from Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir, but at a reduced rate similar to reductions in allocations made for South of Delta urban contractors from the Central Valley Project during the 2012-2016 drought (70% of supply allocation in 2013 as year 2, 50% in 2014 as year 3, 25% in 2015 as year 4, and 55% in 2016 as year 5).
• Surface water expansion project
o Normal Year: Up to 6,000 AFY
o Single dry year: No reduction
o Five consecutive dry years: same percent reductions as was described for surface water in the Del Puerto Creek Recharge and Recovery project.
• As-needed purchase of additional surface water to supplemental non-potable uses:
o All year types: as-needed basis to meet non-potable demands, as described in UWMP The following DWR reporting tables depict the City’s water reliability assessment showing water demands and water supply availability for various water supply scenarios.

Table 2-1 depicts normal year supply and demand conditions through 2050 indicating the City has adequate supplies to meet future water needs during normal year conditions. Table 2-2 shows the same comparison for potable only, while Table 2-3 shows only non-potable supplies and demands.

TABLE 2-1. NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-2) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,909 5,364 5,937 11,391 11,410
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762
Note – Required DWR Table 7-2 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

TABLE 2-2. NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,176 4,471 4,883 10,176 10,176
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) 105 0 0 4,875 4,762
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TABLE 2-3. NORMAL YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
Table 2-4 depicts single dry year supply and demand conditions through 2050. Table 2-5 shows the same table for potable supplies and demands only, with Table 2-6 only including non-potable supplies and demands.

TABLE 2-4. SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-3) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 11,129 11,148
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Note – Required DWR Table 7-3 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

TABLE 2-5. SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
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TABLE 2-6. SINGLE DRY YEAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
Table 2-7 depicts supply and demand conditions through 2050 for a multiple dry year scenario (five consecutive dry years), similar to the 2012-2016 drought cycle. Table 2-8 shows the same table with potable supplies and demands only, while Table 2-9 shows only non-potable supplies and demands.

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TABLE 2-7. MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (DWR TABLE 7-4) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
First year
Supply totals 4,647 5,102 5,675 9,029 11,148
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 2,513 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 4,613 4,500
Second
year
Supply totals 4,407 4,862 5,435 9,089 9,108
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0 2,573 2,460
Third
year
Supply totals 4,247 4,702 5,275 7,729 7,748
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 1,213 1,100
Fourth
year
Supply totals 4,047 4,502 5,075 6,029 6,048
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482
Fifth year
Supply totals 4,287 4,742 5,315 8,069 10,788
Use totals 4,804 5,364 5,937 6,516 6,648
Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110 1,553 4,140
Note – Required DWR Table 7-4 combines both supply and demands for potable and non-potable supplies which must be considered separately for the City of Patterson. See the following two tables for a breakdown of Potable and Non-Potable scenarios.

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TABLE 2-8. MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (POTABLE ONLY) 2030 (AF) 2035 (AF) 2040 (AF) 2045 (AF) 2050 (AF)
First
year
Supply totals 3,914 4,209 4,621 9,914 9,914
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (158) (263) (263) 4,613 4,500
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 158 263 263
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Second
year
Supply totals 3,674 3,969 4,381 7,874 7,874
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (398) (503) (503) 2,573 2,460
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 0 55 14
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 10 0 0
Third
year
Supply totals 3,514 3,809 4,221 6,514 6,514
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (558) (663) (663) 1,213 1,100
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit 150 215 174
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 407 447 488
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0
Fourth
year
Supply totals 3,314 3,609 4,021 4,814 4,814
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (758) (863) (863) (488) (601)
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 814 894 977 1,060 1,083 Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 57 32 114 573 482
Fifth
year
Supply totals 3,554 3,849 4,261 6,854 9,554
Use totals 4,071 4,471 4,883 5,301 5,414
Surplus/(shortfall) (518) (623) (623) 1,553 4,140
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit 611 671 732
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 93 48 110
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TABLE 2-9. MULTIPLE DRY YEARS SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON (NON-POTABLE ONLY) 2030
(AF)
2035
(AF)
2040
(AF)
2045
(AF)
2050
(AF)
First
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Second
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Third
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Fourth
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
Fifth
year
Supply totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Use totals 733 893 1,054 1,215 1,234
Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions
WSCP - supply augmentation benefit
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit
Revised Surplus/(shortfall)
The Drought Risk Assessment (DRA) is an evaluation of local water supply availability, assuming the next five years (2026-2030) are hydrologically equivalent to the driest five consecutive years on record. The assumptions are summarized below, with more detail in Section 7 of the 2025 UWMP:

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• Unconstrained demands for 2026-2029 were linearly interpolated between 2025 actuals and 2030 projected demands for the “existing” service area without Zacharias Baldwin development.

Demands for the Zacharias Baldwin development are assumed to first come online in 2029, before reaching the 2030 projected value, meaning 0 AFY of demands 2026-2028. • Groundwater supply, Lower Aquifer: Pumping reductions scale from 92 AFY in 2025 to 460 AFY in 2030. The model-estimated baseline pumping from the Lower Aquifer from Water Years 2019-2023 is 3,086 AFY. Thus the 2025 available Lower Aquifer supply is assumed to be 2,994 AF and 2030 available supply is 2,626 AF, with 2026-2029 linearly interpolated between those values. • Groundwater supply, Upper Aquifer: Shown to be equal to non-potable demands, as the City expects enough non-potable supplies to be available to meet these demands in any year type. The City also anticipates transitioning some Upper Aquifer supplies from serving non-potable demands to serving potable demands (after treatment is added) sometime over the next 5-10 years.

Table 2-10 contains the results of the drought risk assessment.

TABLE 2-10. DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DWR TABLE 7-5)
2026 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,215 3,678 537
Total Supplies (AF) 3,457 2,920 537
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action (757) (757) 0
OPTIONAL Planned WSCP Actions (use reduction and supply augmentation) WSCP - supply augmentation benefit (AF)
WSCP - use reduction savings benefit (AF) 757 757
Revised Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0
2027 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,284 3,698 586
Total Supplies (AF) 4,284 3,698 586
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2028 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,352 3,717 635
Total Supplies (AF) 4,352 3,717 635
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2029 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,578 3,894 684
Total Supplies (AF) 4,579 3,895 684
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
2030 Total Potable Non-Potable
Total Water Use (AF) 4,804 4,071 733
Total Supplies (AF) 4,804 4,071 733
Surplus/Shortfall w/o WSCP Action 0 0 0
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 2-10 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026

2.2 Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plan
The CWC requires the City’s WSCP to include a seismic risk assessment and mitigation plan to assess the vulnerability of each water facility. Per CWC Section 10632.5 (c), this requirement is met by the Stanislaus 2022 Multi-Jurisdictional County Hazard Mitigation Plan which includes hazard vulnerability assessments and mitigation plans (including for earthquakes). This plan is available to the public through the Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services website (oes.stancounty.gov). There are several major faults in the region that could generate a seismic event that could impact City water facilities including the Great Valley Thrust Fault System, Ortigalita Fault Zone, and the San Joaquin Fault. The City closely monitors its water facilities and is prepared to rehabilitate infrastructure should an earthquake hazard impact its water system.

The City’s Emergency Response Plan (ERP) describes the City’s plan for responding to a variety of other catastrophic water shortage conditions, such as the impacts of a seismic event. A copy of the ERP can be found in Appendix B.

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3. ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES CWC Section 10632 (a)(2) requires written procedures to be developed to conduct an annual water supply and demand assessment (annual assessment) to determine the water system’s reliability, assuming the upcoming year is a dry year. The annual assessment and accompanying shortage report must be completed and submitted to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) by July 1 of each year. For these annual assessments and shortage reports, the “year” refers to the 12-month period beginning July 1 and ending the following June 30 per DWR guidelines.

The documented steps to complete the annual assessment are described below, as well as the decisionmaking process for declaring a shortage.

Available Water Supply
As previously described, the City relies exclusively on groundwater supplies. Available water supplies for the City shall be quantified each year by summing the capacity of each operational groundwater well, typically assuming that one well is offline. The resulting well capacity will be compared to the available groundwater supply that can be pumped under any limitations imposed by the Pumping Reduction Plan that the City participates in as a management action from the Delta-Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP). Typically, the lower of the two values is used as an estimated available supply for the coming year.

Unconstrained Customer Demand
Water use for the previous year of available data at the time the analysis is conducted shall be quantified by summing the billed water usage for all customers by user class for the previous year. Customer water demands for the City shall be projected for the upcoming year based on the previous year’s water usage and anticipated new customer connections and per capita target assumptions. If a water shortage was active during the previous year, demands will be increased by the estimated percent reduction requested or otherwise imposed during the active water shortage period.

The first step to calculate the anticipated additional new demand is to calculate the future population changes. To calculate future population, the number of anticipated new customer connections shall be multiplied by the number of persons per household as indicated on updated Department of Finance (DOF) data tables shown on the DOF website for the City. That number shall then be added to the current population to obtain the future population.

𝐹𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 + (𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑁𝑒𝑤 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 × 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑) To calculate anticipated demands for the upcoming year, each meter usage per customer class shall be multiplied by the future population and then divided by the current population.

𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 =
𝑀𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑈𝑠𝑎𝑔𝑒 × 𝐹𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Evaluation Criteria
If the available water supply is greater than the anticipated customer demand for the upcoming year, then the City would not need to take any further action. If the anticipated customer demands for the upcoming Packet Pg. 669
City of Patterson (0013240.00) 3-12 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026
year are greater than the available water supplies, the City will initiate appropriate water shortage response actions as detailed in this WSCP.

Infrastructure Considerations
If infrastructure projects are anticipated for the upcoming year that could impact water supply production (e.g. repairs and/or replacement of existing wells, development of new groundwater well, etc.), these water supply impacts shall be evaluated for the timeframe (i.e. months) when the infrastructure projects will impact the available water system capacity. Thus, the available water supply shall be increased or reduced accordingly for each month based on expected months of well non-availability and/or when new or replacements supplies are developed and brought online providing additional system capacity.

Decision-Making Process
If a shortage is predicted for the coming year, the shortage report will be presented to the City Council following the completion of the annual assessment. The City Council shall review and approve the findings of the annual assessment and if necessary, trigger implementation of any water shortage response actions resulting from the annual assessment findings through a resolution.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 4-13 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026

4. WATER SHORTAGE STAGES
CWC Section 10632 (a)(3)(A) requires standard water shortage levels including greater than a 50-percent reduction in water supply conditions. The City follows the standard six water shortage levels, also known as stages, suggested by DWR’s 2025 Urban Water Management Plan Guidebook. The City will implement these water shortage levels in response to corresponding water supply shortages to comply with CWC requirements. The stages will be implemented during water supply shortages, due to City water system constraints, or due to outside factors (e.g. State water use cutbacks or regional drought conditions that may not be directly influencing the City’s water supplies). The determination and declaration of a water supply shortage stage will be made by the City of Patterson City Council.

Stage 1
This level would be initiated during a mild water shortage (up to 10%) and is part of an ongoing public information campaign encouraging voluntary water conservation. The City could achieve up to a 10% reduction voluntarily or could issue a resolution triggering Stage 1 voluntary water use reductions up to 10%. There are no mandatory measures implemented during a Stage 1 response. Although Stage 1 is very achievable, customers would be reminded of regional dry year concerns and any short interruptions in water service when the City may have a redundant back-up well offline for repairs, which makes the overall supply system more vulnerable to shortages.

Stage 2
This level would be initiated during a moderate water shortage (11-20%) and would be addressed through enhanced voluntary measures and public outreach with voluntary enforcement of the water waste ordinance. Failure of one groundwater supply well could cause a moderate reduction in water supply, resulting in implementation of Stage 2 measures. Stage 2 would also be implemented during an on-going regional drought condition where water conservation is voluntary with little to no actual impact on the City’s groundwater supply capacity. During Stage 2 conditions, the City Council could declare certain water use prohibitions in accordance with the City’s water waste ordinance.

Stage 3
This level would be initiated during a more severe water shortage (21 to 30%), which could be caused by State-mandated water use reductions or a catastrophic failure of up to two City groundwater supply wells.

During a Stage 3 condition, the City Council would implement a combination of voluntary and mandatory measures as needed to meet the specific water shortage cutback target. The City Manager would have the authority to implement City Council directed water shortage response measures including the implementation of additional prohibitions and consumption reduction methods that could include cutbacks in irrigation water use by all customers, enhanced leak repair by utilities and customers, City establishment of water shortage pricing surcharges, and other consumption reduction methods as needed to effectively reduce water demands to match available supplies.

Stage 4
This level would be initiated during a critical water shortage (31 to 40%), which could be caused by a catastrophic failure of up to three groundwater supply wells. All actions taken in the prior stages would be intensified and production would be monitored daily for compliance with necessary water use reductions.

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Customers would be under strict enforcement of no waste policies and water rationing would be considered.

The City may declare a water shortage emergency to immediately repair and bring well capacity back online in a timely manner.

Stage 5
This level would be initiated during a critical water shortage (41-50%), which could be caused by a natural disaster, prolonged severe drought event, or catastrophic failure of water system facilities that greatly reduces water supply capacity by more than 40% from normal operation capacities. Severe limitations would be placed on irrigation use by all customers, leaks would be required to be repaired within five days, and all non-essential City operations (e.g. flushing) would be curtailed until further notice.

Stage 6
This level would be initiated during a catastrophic water shortage (>50%), which could be caused by a natural disaster or catastrophic failure requiring severe and immediate cutbacks in customer water demands. Rationing and mandatory restrictions would be enhanced as needed to effectively reduce water demands to match available supplies. Indoor use may be capped on an account-level basis at the State mandated indoor residential urban water use objective on a gallons per capita per day (gpcd) basis.

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Table 4-1 summarizes the City’s six (6) water shortage levels included in a compliant WSCP. As indicated in the following Table 4-2, these are the standard six levels of water shortage.

TABLE 4-1: WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN LEVELS
Shortage
Level
Percent Shortage
Range
Numerical value
as a percent
Water Shortage Condition
(Narrative description)
1 Up to 10%
Mild Water Shortage - drought or loss of
redundant wellsupply.
2 Up to 20%
Moderate Water Shortage - drought or temporary loss
of one (1) well.
3 Up to 30%
Severe Water Shortage - drought, State cutbacks, or
permanent loss of one (1) well.
4 Up to 40%
Critical Water Shortage - extended drought, State
cutbacks, loss of two (2) wells.
5 Up to 50%
Critical Water Shortage - extended drought, State
cutbacks, loss of three (3) wells.
6 >50%
Catastrophic Water Shortage - natural disaster, major
system failures, energy supply disruptions.

NOTES: Cutbacksin water use will be based on triggered shortage level and percent reduction target based on normal year per capita water use levels.

TABLE 4-2: CROSS-REFERENCE FOR STANDARD VS. SUPPLIER SHORTAGE LEVELS (DWR TABLE 8-1) Check the box if the Supplier uses the Standard six
levels of water shortage.

Proceed to the next table.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 5-16 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026

5. SHORTAGE RESPONSE ACTIONS
In the case that a shortage is declared, the City would implement appropriate response actions to address anticipated supply and demand gaps. These response actions address the water shortage on multiple fronts and include supply augmentation, demand reduction, and operational changes. As water shortage severity increases, corresponding response measures become more mandatory and severe to ensure that percent shortage cutback targets are met during a given water shortage event. For example, the City would migrate from voluntary water use reduction methods utilized in stages 1 and 2, to more mandatory actions during a stages 3 and 4. Response actions can be added or modified as needed to achieve percent reduction targets with least impact on customers and the economy. The following sections summarize the City’s planned response actions.

5.1 Supply Augmentation Actions
The City has very few supply augmentation options especially for potable water supplies. Developing additional non-potable wells supplies or adding new recycled water options would take years to develop and would not be available during the short-term shortage condition at hand. The City might consider emergency exchanges, transfers, or purchases on an interim basis of water supplied from neighboring water agencies as feasible. These would be very expensive to the City and would likely be non-potable emergency supplies with limited uses in the City service area. The City could also attempt to increase pumping capacity from operational wells. Table 5-1 indicates some of the options available to the City to stretch existing supplies or augment under emergency conditions.

TABLE 5-1: SUPPLY AUGMENTATION AND OTHER ACTIONS (DWR TABLE 8-2) Yes Is the Supplier completing this table using the standard six levels? (yes/no) Shortage
Level
Supply Augmentation
Methods and Other Actions
by Water Supplier
How much is this going to
reduce the shortage gap? Additional Explanation or
Reference
Volume or (OPTIONAL)
Percentage
Shortage Gap
Reduction
Value
3 and 4
Implement or Modify
Drought Rate Structure or
Surcharge
Percentage up to 5%
(or 200 AF)
Cover additional costs associated
with water shortage response
actions
5 and 6 Other Actions Volume 912 AF Increase pumping from existing potable wells (12 hrs/day)
5 and 6 Other Actions Volume 2,129 AF Increase pumping from existing non-potable wells (24 hrs/day)
5 and 6 Exchanges Percentage up to 10%
(or 400 AF)
Bring in temporary non-potable
supplies
NOTES: The City has very few supply augmentation measures other than to increase pumping capacity from existing wells and attempt to secure short-term supplies from neighboring agencies, which would be very expensive to the City and likely only benefit non-potable uses.

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5.2 Demand Reduction Actions
Because supply augmentation opportunities are extremely limited, the City’s water shortage response actions focus heavily on demand reduction. Table 5-2 lists the potential demand reduction measures the City would implement as additional WSCP stages are triggered by shortage conditions. As previously stated, these reduction actions may be modified as needed to achieve the necessary demand reduction targets while minimizing impact to customers.

TABLE 5-2: DEMAND REDUCTION ACTIONS (DWR TABLE 8-3)
Shortage
Level
Demand Reduction
Actions
How much is this going
to reduce the shortage
gap?
Additional Explanation or
Reference
(OPTIONAL)
Penalty,
Charge, or
Other
Enforcement?
Volume or
Percentage
Drop down
Shortage
Gap
Reduction
Value
(May be a
range)
1 to 2 Other Percentage 0 - 20% Voluntary Restrictions - No Waste No
1 to 2
Expand Public
Information
Campaign
Percentage 0 - 20%
General increase in public
outreach measures
including social media,
apps, and other means
No
1 to 2 Improve Customer
Billing Percentage up to 5%
Provide more real-time
water use data as
available through AMI
projects
No
1 to 2 Offer Water Use
Surveys Percentage up to 5% Especially to large water users No
1 to 3 Other Percentage 0 - 30% Voluntary Water Use
Reductions No
1 to 2
Provide Rebates on
Plumbing Fixtures
and Devices
Percentage up to 5% Enhance plumbing fixture
rebates No
1 to 3 Other Percentage 10 - 30% Expedite conversion of water efficient fixtures No
1 to 3
Landscape - Limit
landscape
irrigation to
specific days
Percentage 0 - 20% Limit irrigation to 3
watering days/week Yes
1 to 4 Landscape - Limit
landscape Percentage 0 - 40% Limit irrigation to 2 watering days/week Yes Packet Pg. 675
City of Patterson (0013240.00) 5-18 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026
Shortage
Level
Demand Reduction
Actions
How much is this going
to reduce the shortage
gap?
Additional Explanation or
Reference
(OPTIONAL)
Penalty,
Charge, or
Other
Enforcement?
Volume or
Percentage
Drop down
Shortage
Gap
Reduction
Value
(May be a
range)
irrigation to
specific days
1 to 6
Other - Customers
must repair leaks,
breaks, and
malfunctions in a
timely manner
Percentage 10-50%+ Repair within 5 days of
detection No
2 to 6
Landscape -
Prohibit certain
types of landscape
irrigation
Percentage 20 - 50%+ Reduce parks/open space
irrigation No
3 and 4
Provide Rebates
for Landscape
Irrigation Efficiency
Percentage up to 5%
Provide or enhance
landscape rebates (e.g.
sprinkler rebates)
No
3 and 4 Decrease Line
Flushing Percentage up to 5%
Reducing line flushing
while still avoiding THM
MCL violations
No
3 and 4
Implement or
Modify Drought
Rate Structure or
Surcharge
Percentage up to 5%
Cover additional costs
associated with water
shortage response
activities, and encourage
additional conservation
Yes
3 to 6
Expand Public
Information
Campaign
Percentage 30 - 50%+ General and specific
public outreach measures No
3 to 6 Reduce System
Water Loss Percentage 20 - 50%+ Expedite larger utility leak repairs No 3 to 6 Increase Water
Waste Patrols Percentage 20 - 50%+
Mandatory restrictions -
no waste enforced via
patrols, tickets, fines, etc.

Yes
3 to 6
Implement or
Modify Drought
Rate Structure or
Surcharge
Percentage 20 - 50%+ Apply water shortage
pricing for surcharge Yes
3 to 6 Other Percentage 20 - 50%+ Apply penalties for
excessive water use Yes
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 5-19 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026
Shortage
Level
Demand Reduction
Actions
How much is this going
to reduce the shortage
gap?
Additional Explanation or
Reference
(OPTIONAL)
Penalty,
Charge, or
Other
Enforcement?
Volume or
Percentage
Drop down
Shortage
Gap
Reduction
Value
(May be a
range)
4 to 6 Other Percentage 30 - 50%+ Restrict water use for only priority uses Yes
5 and 6 Other Percentage Up to 1%
Increased security or
monitoring by City staff
of hydrants to avoid
unauthorized
consumption
No
5 and 6
Moratorium or Net
Zero Demand
Increase on New
Connections
Percentage Up to
10%
Discuss phasing
permitted development Yes
5 and 6
Landscape -
Prohibit certain
types of landscape
irrigation
Percentage Up to
10%
Significant irrigation
prohibitions Yes
5 to 6
Landscape -
Prohibit certain
types of landscape
irrigation
Percentage 40 - 50%+ No lawn watering Yes
5 to 6 Other Percentage 40 - 50%+ Apply flow restrictions to customers
Yes
5 to 6 Other Percentage 40 - 50%+
Mandatory water
rationing, per capita
allotment
Yes
Yes Is the Supplier completing this table using the standard six levels? (yes/no)

5.3 Operational Changes
During a triggered water supply shortage condition the City can implement operational changes such as reducing water system flushing and increasing hydrant security. Operational changes are included in Table 5-2 as appropriate.

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5.4 Additional Mandatory Restrictions
The City could implement additional mandatory restrictions against specific water use practices that may be considered excessive during given water shortage conditions. If drought or water shortages warrant mandatory restrictions (considered for Stage 3), the City could implement further restrictions if warranted based on Stage 3 or Stage 4 conditions. Table 5-2 identifies mandatory restrictions that would be enforced during a water shortage.

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6. COMMUNICATION PROTOCOLS
The CWC Section 10632 (a)(5)(A) requires the City to notify all customers and interested parties of any anticipated water shortages as result of the annual water supply and demand assessment process. Per, the CWC Section 10632 (a)(5)(B), the City will also notify all customers and interested parties if any shortage response actions are triggered pursuant to the annual water supply and demand assessment results. In the event of an anticipated water shortage, the City will inform customers through newsletters and messages on the City website, water bill inserts, direct mail (e.g. post cards), newspapers, press releases, advertising, social media (NextDoor App), mobile electronic street signs, community workshops and meetings, and other communications as needed to meet water shortage reduction targets.

Communication protocols are summarized below in Table 6-1.

TABLE 6-1: COMMUNICATION PROTOCOL FOR EACH WATER SHORTAGE LEVEL Standard Shortage
Level
Standard Shortage
Levels
Typical Response
Action Type
Percent
Shortage Range
Communication Method
1 Voluntary Up to 10% Website
2 Enhanced Voluntary Up to 20% Stage 1 methods, plus:

Bill Insert, Newsletter
3 Voluntary/Mandatory Up to 30%
Stage 1 & 2 methods, plus:

Direct Mail, Newspaper, Press
Release, Advertising, Social Media,
Mobile Electronic Street Sign
4 Voluntary/Mandatory Up to 40%
Stage 1-3 methods, plus:

Community Workshop and
Meetings
5 Restrictions/Allocations Up to 50%
Stage 1-4 methods, plus:

Targeted Restriction and Allocation
Communications
6 Restrictions/Allocations > 50%
Stage 1-5 methods, plus:

Enhanced Targeted Restriction and
Allocation Communications
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) 7-22 Woodard & Curran, Inc. 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026

7. COMPLIANCE AND ENFORCEMENT
CWC Section 10632 (a)(6) requires an urban water supplier to penalize or charge for excessive use, where applicable. In accordance with the City Municipal Code (through adoption of the 2025 WSCP), when a water shortage emergency is declared, the City Manager may issue a Notice of Violation to any customer that fails to comply with the conditions of the ordinance. After one notice has been issued, further violations shall be punishable by a fine of: $25 for a first violation; $50 for a second violation; and $100 for a third violation; and thereafter the City may exercise the option of terminating water service for flagrant water waste compliance and enforcement situations.

Furthermore, each day upon which any condition of the ordinance is violated constitutes a separate violation. The City will ensure compliance and enforce provisions through water use field patrols, calls received at City offices, and/or communications received through social media supported by the City. The City will maintain records of all enforcement actions. The City Municipal Code will maintain updated policies and procedures related to implementation of the City’s updated WSCP.

During severe and critical water shortages (Stages 3-6), there may be additional penalties or charges applied for excessive water use. During these triggered water shortage conditions, the City Manager may take further actions if violations continue after the initial written warning, such as installing a flow-restricting device on the service line or termination of service for repeated violations of unauthorized water use. Table 7-1 summarizes when penalties and charges may take effect.

TABLE 7-1: WSCP PENALTIES AND CHARGES
Penalty or Charge Stage When Penalty or Charge Takes Effect Penalty for excess use 3-6
Charge for excess use 3-6
Flow Restriction 5-6
Termination of Service 5-6
In accordance with the City’s Municipal Code (Section 13.24.240), violations or fines may be appealed for reconsideration. Appeals for reconsideration shall be processed as indicated in the City Municipal Code provisions.

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8. LEGAL AUTHORITIES
The City is a general law city with authorities to govern City business and services and enter into agreements or arrangements beneficial to the City in accordance with State laws and regulations. Per the City Municipal Code, the City has the authority to implement the water response actions presented herein and as necessary to meet the public health and safety needs of the community. The City has water code provisions in place to address water supply shortage and water waste conditions.

The City shall approve a DWR compliant WSCP by July 21, 2026 and may declare a water shortage emergency as required depending on the severity of the water shortage level/stage in accordance with CWC Chapter 3, Sections 350 through 359. This includes provisions related to penalties and charges associated with WSCP implementation actions.

The City shall coordinate with Stanislaus County for the possible proclamation of a local water supply emergency per California Government Code, California Emergency Services Act, Article 2, Section 8558.

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9. FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF WSCP
CWC Section 10632 (a)(8) requires a description of the impacts of consumption reduction on the revenues and expenditures of the urban water supplier. The City has established an accounting system for tracking expenses and revenue shortfalls associated with voluntary and mandatory water use reductions implemented through WSCP water shortage response actions. The City maintains reserve funds that can be used to offset expenditure impacts during times of emergency. Further, the City would implement a water surcharge upon triggering of a Stage 3 (or higher) WSCP declaration to recover unmitigated revenue shortfalls resulting from the costs of additional water shortage response actions. The water surcharge would only be in effect during the declared water shortage condition. Any water-related surcharges would be approved by the City Council, validating the need for the surcharges and identifying appropriate costs to be covered through any approved surcharges to support WSCP implementation.

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10. MONITORING AND REPORTING
Per CWC Section 10632 (a)(9), the City will monitor and report on the implementation of its WSCP. Monthly metered water production and consumption data will be collected, tracked, and analyzed to monitor compliance and meet SWRCB water conservation reporting requirements. This water use reporting process will assist the State to determine compliance with per capita water use targets, established end use targets, and future cutback policy response during prolonged drought conditions.

As of June 2024, the City completed deployment of an Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) system which collects hourly read data and provides real-time leak detection information for customers. Compared to pre-AMI meter reading, the additional AMI meter data provides the City with a real-time tracking tool to monitor customer water use and reductions levels during a triggered water shortage condition. The City has also made real-time water use information available to customers through an online EyeOnWater portal.

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11. WSCP REFINEMENT PROCEDURE
Per CWC Section 10632 (a) (10), the City may choose to refine the WSCP based on monitoring and reporting of data collected. The City’s WSCP can be refined or updated at any time, independent of when UWMPs are updated every five years. Based on analysis of the data collected, the City may choose to modify or add consumption reduction methods to more accurately meet water level targets. Any updates to the WSCP will be approved by the City Council as needed to maintain an effective water shortage response plan for the community.

Any WSCP updates will allow for interested party review and be publicly noticed before any City Council action is considered at a planned City Council meeting. The WSCP documents and any updated information will be available on the City’s website.

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12. SPECIAL WATER FEATURE DISTINCTION
The City does not have any special water features of distinction that are artificially supplied with water and would be involved in a WSCP response effort.

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13. PLAN ADOPTION, SUBMITTAL, AND AVAILABILITY
The City conducted a public hearing to review its 2025 UWMP and WSCP at the June 16, 2026 City Council Meeting. Public notices were posted at least 7 and 14 days prior in the Patterson irrigator newspaper. The City’s 2025 UWMP and WSCP documents were available for review prior to the City Council meeting on the City’s website. The final 2025 UWMP and WSCP were adopted at the City Council Meeting on July 21, 2026.

The resolution and related public noticing can be found in Appendix A.

The City’s adopted 2025 UWMP and WSCP were submitted to DWR through DWR’s online data portal and provided to the California State Library. The City’s 2025 UWMP and WSCP were also made available to interested parties involved in the plan development process including the County and agencies listed in Chapter 10 of the 2025 UWMP. The City’s adopted Final 2025 UWMP and WSCP are available for viewing or download from the City’s website.

Per the CWC, the following steps shall be performed prior to adoption of the WSCP. • Prior to adoption, the City will issue a notification of a public hearing to customers, the county, and other interested parties.
• The City will publish a public notice in a local newspaper for two consecutive weeks prior to the public hearing.
• The City shall hold a public hearing to obtain public input. • Following the public hearing or at a subsequent City Council meeting, the City Council shall formally adopt the WSCP.
• Per CWC Section 10632 (a)(c), the City will make the WSCP available on the City’s website, https://www.pattersonca.gov/669/Urban-Water-Management-Plan, within 30 days of adoption by the City Council.

The City may choose to amend its 2025 WSCP at any time on an as needed basis which will follow the steps listed above independent of future City UWMP updates.

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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026
APPENDIX A: PUBLIC NOTICES AND RESOLUTIONS
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DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS
e
s b.

April 8, 2026DATE:

SUBJECT:

Sincerely,
Department of Public Works
7laza
Cc: Aracely Alegre, City Clerk
TO:

FROM:

The final documents will be submitted to the California Department of Water Resources by July 1, 2026.

If you have any questions, please contact me at (209) 895-8061 or [email protected].

LEGAL NOTICE

NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING

FURTHER INFORMATION may be obtained by contacting the City Clerk’s Office of the Patterson, City Hall by email at [email protected] or by calling (209) 895-8014.

BY ORDER OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PATTERSON.

Date(s) Advertised: May 21, 2026
Aracely Alegre, City Clerk
City of Patterson
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan June 2026
APPENDIX B: EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN (ERP)
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City of Patterson (0013240.00) Woodard & Curran, Inc.
2025 Urban Water Management Plan June 2026
APPENDIX F: PUBLIC COMMENTS AND RESPONSE
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Comment
Number
Date
Received Commenter Comments Response
1 6/3/2026 Lacey Timmins
Hello,
I am writing to submit a comment regarding my thoughts on a water plan. My comment is : absolutely NO data centers should be built in or around Patterson.

They waste enormous amounts of water and are completely unnecessary.

Thank you,
Lacey Timmins
The Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) does not specify the land uses for future developments within the City's service area. Future, new non-residential demands are projected to grow at 0.6%/year in line with the projected growth in population as described in the Plan. The rate of use is assumed to be in line with recent, averaged billed water use in the commercial sector.
2 6/16/2026
Matthew D.

Francois (Rutan &
Tucker, LLP)
Section 2 - The UWMP Conflicts with the GSP (see attached comment letter) and
Section 4 - The UWMP Fails to Meet the Requirements of State Law (see attached comment letter)
and
Section 5 - The UWMP Incorrectly Analyzes the Impacts of the PRP on the Availability of the City's Groundwater Supply (see attached comment letter) and
Section 6 - Patterson’s UWMP Conflicts With Other GSA’s UWMPs and the Adaptive Management Framework (see attached comment letter) The UWMP relies on the most recently available regional and local planning documents that contain policies and programs that the City participates in to work towards achieving State-required groundwater basin sustainability objectives. The Northern Delta-Mendota Pumping Reduction Plan (PRP) was developed in accordance with Section 16.1 of the revised 2024 Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the Delta Mendota Subbasin. As stated in the document, the PRP is designed as a living document that will be updated and adapted as new data and information becomes available. At present, it represents the most recent regional planning document available to inform groundwater pumping reduction planning.

GSP Section 16.1.1.2 outlines the overall Overdraft Mitigation Plan, describing that the Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) collectively agreed to reduce total groundwater pumping from the Lower Aquifer by 32,500 acre-feet per year (AFY) by 2030 which is reflective of the historical overdraft (pumping beyond what is sustainable in the long term). This reduction target was developed in conjunction with, and reflects assumptions regarding, other planned Projects and Management Actions that were designed to reduce demands and augment supplies across the basin. The Northern Delta-Mendota Region GSAs are responsible for a share of that total reduction: approximately 9,000 AFY. The PRP currently allocates a 460 AFY portion (5.1%) of the regional 9,000 AFY reduction to the City of Patterson GSA.

The technical approach of the Overdraft Mitigation Plan and subsequent Northern Delta-Mendota PRP have been designed within the framework of the GSP and the adaptive management framework described within the Revised and Restated Memorandum of Understanding Among the Delta-Mendota Subbasin GSAs. Consistent with the GSP and the Subbasin’s adaptive management framework, the reduction targets are subject to refinement over time as additional monitoring data, model updates, and implementation experience become available. 3 6/16/2026
Matthew D.

Francois (Rutan &
Tucker, LLP)
Section 3 - The UWMP Conflicts with the City's Operational Yield Study (see attached comment letter)
The Operational Yield Study referenced by the commentor evaluates local extraction capacity under specified assumptions and operating conditions. In contrast, sustainable yield in GSP under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is a basin-wide construct that has been determined to avoid undesirable results across the Subbasin as a whole. As such, the two metrics serve different purposes and are not directly interchangeable or scalable. The PRP represents one of the coordinated approaches identified by the Delta-Mendota GSAs (and subsequently the Northern Delta-Mendota Region GSAs) to address the collective overdraft condition of 9,000 AFY in the Lower Aquifer for the Northern Delta-Mendota Region, of which the City of Patterson GSA is responsible for a 460 AFY reduction.

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Outlook
Urban water management plan
From Lacey Timmins <[email protected]>
Date Wed 6/3/2026 5:49 PM
To Larrisa Camara <[email protected]>
[CAUTION: EXTERNAL MESSAGE]
Hello,
I am writing to submit a comment regarding my thoughts on a water plan. My comment is : absolutely NO data centers should be built in or around Patterson. They waste enormous amounts of water and are completely unnecessary.

Thank you,
Lacey Timmins
6/18/26, 2:25 PM Urban water management plan - Chris Hewes - Outlook about:blank?windowId=SecondaryReadingPane38 1/1
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Matthew D. Francois
Direct Dial: (650) 798-5669
E-mail: [email protected]
June 16, 2026
Ru t an & Tu ck er , LL P | 45 5 Mar ke t Str ee t, Sui te 1 40 0 Sa n Fran c isc o, CA 941 05 | 415 -7 32 -7 700 | Fax 41 5 - 51 0- 296 3 Or an ge Coun ty | Pa lo Alto | San Fra nc is co | Sc ot ts da le | www. ru ta n. co m 3171/033755-0005
23907067.4 a06/16/26

VIA E-MAIL
Honorable Michael Clauzel, Mayor
and Members of the City Council

CITY OF PATTERSON
1 Plaza
P.O. Box 667
Patterson, CA 95363
Email: [email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Re: Comments on 2025 Urban Water Management Plan; June 16, 2026 City Council Agenda, Item No. 7.2
Dear Mayor Clauzel and Members of the City Council:

We write on behalf of our client, Keystone Ranch, LLC (“Keystone”) to provide comments on the draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (“UWMP”). As explained below, the proposed new UWMP is critically flawed and in conflict with other adopted planning documents and legal authorities, including: (1) the City’s own operational yield study—which found the City to have approximately 10,000-12,000 acre feet per year [“afy”] of sustainable supplies; (2) the current Delta-Mendota Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (“GSP”)—which provides for a series of actions to meet sustainability criteria by 2040 and does not artificially reset the City’s sustainable yield to 2,626 afy; and (3) controlling State law—which does not authorize or justify the City’s actions. In brief, the current draft UWMP should not be approved by the City Council. The City Council should instead direct Staff to revise the draft UWMP to reflect the City’s operational yield study, the adopted GSP, and controlling State law.
1 1. Background
Keystone is the applicant for a 719-unit housing development project (the “Project”) located in the City of Patterson (“City”). The Project site is planned and zoned for residential development 1 We hereby incorporate into the record of proceedings for this matter, the Administrative Record and Supplemental Administrative Records certified and lodged by the City in Keystone Ranch, LLC v. City of Patterson, Stanislaus County Superior Court Case No. CV-24-003269.

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Honorable Michael Clauzel, Mayor
and Members of the City Council
June 16, 2026

Page 2 ends

Patterson City CouncilJuly 21, 2026

Patterson City Council
July 21, 2026